document: Extracting collective probabilistic forecasts from web games Game sites on the World Wide Web draw people from around the world with specialized interests , skills , and knowledge . Data from the games often reflects the players ' expertise and will to win . We extract probabilistic forecasts from data obtained from three online games : the Hollywood Stock Exchange ( HSX ) , the Foresight Exchange ( FX ) , and the Formula One Pick Six ( F1P6 ) competition . We find that all three yield accurate forecasts of uncertain future events . In particular , prices of so-called `` movie stocks '' on HSX are good indicators of actual box office returns . Prices of HSX securities in Oscar , Emmy , and Grammy awards correlate well with observed frequencies of winning . FX prices are reliable indicators of future developments in science and technology . Collective predictions from players in the F1 competition serve as good forecasts of true race outcomes . In some cases , forecasts induced from game data are more reliable than expert opinions . We argue that web games naturally attract well-informed and well-motivated players , and thus offer a valuable and oft-overlooked source of high-quality data with significant predictive value .
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