document: But even as Memphians whoop it up , the prediction that the Big One may come in December is triggering tremors up and down the Mississippi Valley . Shaken , thousands of people are crowding into earthquake survival classes . In Arnold , Mo. , 3,000 people showed up for one course . In Missouri and Arkansas , some schools and businesses have announced plans to close in early December . Entrepreneurs are hawking quake insurance , survival kits and gas-line safety gadgets . Some people are planning to flee . `` You ca n't run from everything , '' says Tammy McCormick , a nurse in Blytheville , Ark. , who will take her two youngsters and spend several days with relatives in North Carolina . `` But it seems stupid to stay on a fault line with a prediction like this . '' Everybody talks about the San Andreas fault in California . But the Midwest actually has had three of the most powerful earthquakes on this continent . In 1811 and 1812 , along a 120-mile zig-zag formation called the New Madrid fault , a series of quakes ravaged the Midwest . Researchers estimate those earthquakes ranked stronger than 8 on the Richter Scale , which had n't been invented yet . They were more than 10 times greater than the 7.1 quake that rocked California 's Bay Area last October . Church bells rang as far away as Boston . Chimneys crumbled in Cincinnati . And as tons of soil and rock bed pitched and rolled in a seismic frenzy , new waterfalls spiked up , causing part of the mighty Mississippi River to flow backward for several hours . The New Madrid -LRB- pronounced MAD-rid -RRB- fault still has 150 small , mostly unfelt , earthquakes a year . In the next 10 years , experts warn , the area has a 33 % chance of a quake measuring 7.1 . That could produce billions of dollars in damage and thousands of casualties . `` We 're overdue for one in the 6s and low 7s , '' says David Stewart , an earthquake expert at Southeast Missouri State University . Over the years , a few pinpoint-on-the map towns have tried to capitalize on the little-known fault . New Madrid , Mo. , the fault 's namesake , draws tourists to a museum with exhibits on the 19th century devastation . And Paragould , Ark. , has held earthquake festivals with events like the `` Miss Faultless '' beauty contest . But as Monday , Dec. 3 , approaches , the whole matter is becoming more serious . That 's because the predictor has gained credibility in some important circles for his work on the climate . Iben Browning , a 72-year-old scientist , predicted October 's Bay Area quake a week before it happened , say people who heard him speak to the Equipment Manufacturers Institute . And he predicted `` geological danger '' on Sept. 19 , 1985 , along a band of latitude that included Mexico City -- where a massive quake struck on that day . Mr. Browning , who has a Ph.D. in physiology , genetics and bacteriology , writes a climate newsletter out of New Mexico . He has clients , such as PaineWebber Inc. , who have long paid for his wisdom on how the weather will affect their agricultural investments . Since 1971 , Mr. Browning says , he has picked the correct dates of four large earthquakes , two volcanoes -- and one day with both a volcano and an earthquake . He bases his forecasts on tidal forces caused by the positions of the sun and the moon -- an old theory , critics say , that does n't wash . On Dec. 3 , those forces are expected to be at a 27-year high . Mr. Browning says that will exert pressure that could trigger faults already ripe to fail . The New Madrid area has a 50-50 chance of producing at least a 7 quake on Dec. 3 , give or take a day or two on either side , Mr. Browning says . At that time , a similar quake has a lesser chance of occurring on California 's San Andreas or Hayward faults , according to Mr. Browning , and an 8.2 quake in Tokyo has a greater chance . Skepticism abounds . `` No responsible scientist can predict an exact day for an earthquake , '' says Brian Mitchell , a quake expert at St. Louis University , echoing the majority opinion . But Mr. Browning should n't be written off so quickly , says Southeast Missouri State 's Mr. Stewart , who recently spent four days with Mr. Browning . `` He has a methodology that can determine , plus or minus a window of a day or two , an enhanced probability of a volcano or an earthquake in certain latitudes , '' says Mr. Stewart . `` No one else has been able to replicate it , but that does n't mean it 's wrong . '' Mr. Browning says it 's not easy being on record with predictions that few other scientists will support . `` I feel like a lonely little petunia in a cabbage patch , '' he says . But asked if he enjoys being right , he says , `` It 's the only damn thing that matters . If one is a business consultant , they do n't pay you for being wrong . '' Plenty of other business people are cashing in on his prediction . Insurance salespeople are peddling earthquake coverage to homeowners and businesses . Salespeople from a Memphis company pop up at survival seminars with a device -LRB- for $ 259 and up -RRB- that turns off gas lines when a quake hits . And entrepreneurs are marketing two kinds of earthquake T-shirts in Memphis . One says , `` I 'm staying , '' the other , `` I 'm leaving . '' All of this has changed life in places like Blytheville , Ark. -LRB- pop : 24,314 -RRB- , tucked amid vast flat farmland , right at the corner of the Arkansas , Tennessee and Missouri borders . So many people plan to skip town on Dec. 3 that the Flexible Technologies tubing plant already plans to shut down for two days , at a cost of thousands of dollars . Says Jimmy Connell , plant superintendent , `` It 's going to be a ghost town around here . '' Robert Edwards , a Blytheville fireman who teaches seminars in earthquake survival , has become a hot property . For five years , most of his classes were lightly attended . Now his phone-answering machine says he is almost completely booked through October . For one recent class , he was in Osceola , Ark. . It is 9 a.m. on a rainy Saturday , and 325 Osceolans , gripping legal pads and spiral notebooks , fill the high school auditorium for an all-day session on earthquake preparedness . With his booming voice , Mr. Edwards lays out a grim scenario : `` One hundred and fifty thousand dead in Memphis instantly -- instantly . And all the federal emergency help is going to go there and St. Louis . You have to be prepared to take complete care of yourself for 24 hours to two weeks . You may be five to six months without power . '' After the seminar , two elderly sisters , both widows , split on what to do . Fearing their home will be looted , Bess Mann , 86 years old , wants to ride it out . But her sister , Hallie Peterson , 83 , wants to stay with their nephew in Mississippi . Scared that the big Memphis-Arkansas bridge that spans the Mississippi River will collapse in a quake , she 's charting an alternate route two hours out of her way . School districts in Earle and Wilson , Ark. , have announced closings around Dec. 3 . Some schools practice earthquake drills , while others sponsor cake sales to buy survival kits for classrooms , with items like blankets , flashlights and radios . Michael Prince , a child psychologist in Jonesboro , says he knows of 10 to 15 children , age four to nine , so unnerved that they 've reverted to bed-wetting or extreme anxiety about being separated from their parents . Trying to calm the fear , the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council , a panel of academic and government seismic experts , will review the Browning claim at a meeting in a few weeks . In 11 years of studying prediction methods , the panel has found no bona fide approach . The group usually ignores claims that are n't scientifically documented -LRB- like the one by the California man who said his goldfish helped him predict quakes -RRB- . `` But this one , '' says Randall Updike , the executive secretary , `` has created such chaos in the mid-continent region that we felt we had to give our advice . '' Mr. Browning says he is tentatively booked to give a talk in Minneapolis on Dec. 3 and he does n't plan to go there via St. Louis . But he adds : `` I highly recommend against panic . That will kill more people than earthquakes . ''
extractive_keyphrases: new madrid fault earthquake survival classes quake insurance prediction methods earthquake expert earthquake preparedness federal emergency help
abstractive_keyphrases: national earthquake prediction evaluation cuncil