document: Supercomputers , satellites and the expertise of several hurricane forecasters predicted the destructive path Hurricane Hugo would follow , giving people plenty of time to flee the South Carolina coast . But hurricane tracking remains an uncertain science . Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center used computer models to track Hugo 's path into Charleston , S.C. `` All the world 's knowledge about meteorological conditions and forecasting changes in those conditions is embodied in those models , '' said Thomas Pyke , head of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 's satellite service . Pinpointing the exact point of Hugo 's landfall was difficult , but forecasters said Friday that the landfall was predicted in time for evacuation . `` Overall , I think the tracking models gave us a very good idea where Hugo would be so officials in South Carolina could act in a timely manner , '' said research meteorologist Colin McAdie . The real forecasting problem with Hugo was predicting the intensity of the storm , which was upgraded to a Category 4 hurricane just hours before it slammed into Charleston . `` It is very difficult to predict changes in intensity because we do n't have very reliable computer models for that , '' McAdie said . `` We really need to improve on our forecasting ability of strength . '' The hurricane specialists were surprised by the last-minute increase in wind speed , which was reported to them by Air Force reconnaissance . Hurricane specialist Gil Clark , who has tracked hurricanes for 35 years , said that a couple of decades ago , the only forecasting tools were reports from aircraft or ships . `` We had no radar or satellites then , so needless to say our forecasts were less accurate , '' Clark said . In the late 1960s , the weather service began using satellites to obtain a global weather picture . Information from the satellite is used to improve the accuracy of the large-scale models that television viewers see every night . Using the information from the satellite , supercomputers at the National Meteorological Center in Suitland , Md. , send information to the hurricane center where a tracking model constantly changes to account for current weather conditions and the position of the hurricane . To determine the track of the storm , the forecasters analyze supercomputer predictions , satellite data , the history of similar storms and the current path of the hurricane . Then they make an educated guess about the landfall . Meteorology professor Kerry A. Emmanuel of the Massachussetts Institute of Technology criticizes the current forecasting system . `` Congress and the American people are suffering from the collective delusion that our data problems have been solved by satellites and that just is n't true , '' Emmanuel said . Satellites can give a `` pretty picture , '' he said , but not enough information about the wind and temperatures that affect a hurricane 's path . `` Most of the information actually used to predict hurricanes comes from flying airplanes into the hurricane , and they do a very good job , '' Emmanuel said . Forecasters say the accuracy of satellite pictures is improving every year so long-range forecasting should become more precise . `` We have to remember that those models used are only guidance products , '' Pyke said , `` and that it 's ultimately the job of the forecaster to predict the storm 's path . ''
extractive_keyphrases: hurricane hugo destructive path supercomputer predictions satellite data satellite pictures hurricane forecasters real forecasting problem forecasting ability south carolina coast landfall