document: A hurricane expert predicts a turbulent summer in the Atlantic Ocean with more and fiercer storms swirling the seas , but says it 's impossible to know if any of the storms will threaten populated areas . William Gray , a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University , said Friday he expects about six Atlantic hurricanes this year , the average for the last 40 years , but above average for the decade . The Atlantic has formed relatively few hurricanes in five of the last six hurricane seasons . Those years brought just two to five hurricanes each , except for the seven hurricanes spotted in 1985 . The hurricane season officially begins June 1 , and its most active period usually begins Aug. 1 . Gray , who has used wind and air pressure patterns to make annual hurricane forecasts each year since 1984 , will issue his first formal 1988 forecast in late May . He issued an early `` outlook '' Friday for the 10th annual National Hurricane Conference . `` It is also anticipated that the average hurricane which does form in 1988 will likely be more intense than have the average hurricanes of the last six years , except for the 1985 season , '' Gray said in a paper presented to the conference . But Gray said his models of air pressure , winds around the equator and winds for `` El Nino '' periods , when eastern Pacific waters are warmer than usual , do not allow for predictions of when or where a hurricane might form . Gray based his early outlook on the presence of light easterly winds at the equator and the approaching end of `` El Nino '' period . Gray predicted four hurricanes last season , and three actually occurred . His prediction of four in 1986 was on the money , and he originally predicted eight hurricanes before adjusting that figure to seven , the eventual correct number , in 1985 . In 1984 , when there were five hurricanes , Gray had predicted seven . Drought in West Africa is responsible for a drop in Atlantic hurricanes in the 1970s and 1980s , Gray said . He said the drought has robbed storm systems of moisture needed to start their escalation into hurricanes . That pattern eventually will change , he said , `` but it is impossible to say when this shift will occur . '' Forecasters and emergency management officials at the conference stressed that coastal populations have increased rapidly during the lull in hurricanes ; a surge in storms , up to the levels of the 1950s and 1960s , could bring unprecedented damage , they said .
extractive_keyphrases: atlantic hurricanes hurricane expert william gray atlantic ocean storms hurricane seasons annual hurricane forecasts turbulent summer