document: Newspaper headlines have documented Miami 's subsequent hurricanes . The city was `` Lashed '' in ' 47 , `` Slammed '' in '49 and `` Pounded '' in ' 50 . The last to hit Miami was Cleo , a small one , in 1964 , and the intervening period of calm defies all odds. ; Many folks here worry about the `` Big One '' just as Californians worry about the Big Quake . What would one of those legendary storms of the past with 200 mph winds pushing huge tidal surges do to this low-lying metropolis on the Atlantic ? No one is sure. ; Hurricane season officially extends from June 1 through Nov. 30 , and scientists at the National Hurricane Center , tucked away on the sixth floor of a nondescript office building in this Miami suburb , are perking up after another winter lull. ; From now until the end of the season , the six hurricane specialists will monitor weather computers 24 hours a day . In this part of the world , technology has made obsolete such disasters as the unnamed hurricane that surprised Galveston , Texas , in 1900 , killing 6,000 people. ; The hurricane specialists use the nation 's only working geostationary weather satellite to follow developing storms . When a disturbance becomes threatening , a specially equipped plane is sent into the storm 's heart to measure barometric pressure , wind speed and temperature. ; One of the specialists , Lixion Avila , has begun counting tropical waves that form off the coast of Africa every few days during hurricane season . About 60 of these waves of air , not water , form every year . About 20 of them intensify into stronger disturbances , ranging from tropical depressions , with wind speeds to 38 mph ; to tropical storms , with winds from 39 to 73 mph ; to hurricanes , with winds exceeding 74 mph. ; Last year , 16 tropical depressions developed in the Atlantic . Fourteen became tropical storms , seven of which became hurricanes , fewer than usual. ; People who venture into such dubious endeavors as long-term hurricane forecasting said this could be another light year . But , they said , a relatively quiet year does not guarantee a thing. ; One such year was 1935 -- only six hurricanes formed , but one was the strongest to hit the continent . More than 800 workers , brought down to build the Overseas Highway through the Florida Keys , were killed when 200 mph winds knocked their evacuation train off the tracks. ; NO MATTER what long-range forecasters say , scientists at the Hurricane Center know that the laws of probability are closing in on Miami . They are a conservative bunch , not given to Sunday-supplement scare stories . Miami has grown immensely since the last major storm and is greatly overdue , they said. ; `` Historically , south Florida has had more hurricanes than any other site , '' said Jerry Jarrell , a hurricane specialist eyeing Miami 's 27-year hiatus nervously . `` We would expect a major hurricane to hit within 75 miles of Miami every eight years . '' ; At the center , scientists built a computer model to calculate what would happen if the 1926 hurricane were to hit Miami today . That storm was almost exactly the strength of Hurricane Hugo , which hit in South Carolina with 135 mph winds in September 1989 . The scientists took data from Hugo and applied it to the path taken by the 1926 hurricane into Miami. ; `` It would be a totally different story here , '' said Max Mayfield , who collected photos from the 1926 storm to illustrate the model . `` How many high-rises did they have on those barrier islands up in South Carolina ? None . I think all these folks in their Miami Beach condos are going to be in for a rude awakening . '' ; A worst-case storm , with winds topping 150 mph , would put 5 feet of water in Joe 's Stone Crabs restaurant , a Miami Beach landmark , and 9 feet of water on Biscayne Boulevard in downtown Miami . Surging water could reach levels of 13 1/2 feet in low-lying areas south of Miami. ; DESPITE MODERN technology , the specialists can not forecast precisely where a hurricane will hit . Hurricanes change direction and intensify in a matter of hours and , in 24 hours , the specialists said , they could miscalculate one 's track by 100 miles . This , and the number of years since the last major storm hit , has spawned a certain complacency among residents that the specialists find disturbing. ; Mayfield went to Miami Beach recently to discuss his model with officials there , and what he heard worried him. ; `` The fire department did a survey , and 90 percent of the people they talked to said they would n't evacuate for a hurricane , '' Mayfield said . `` That makes my hair stand straight up . ''
extractive_keyphrases: hurricane season miami hurricane specialists tropical depressions tropical storms national hurricane center
abstractive_keyphrases: long-term hurricane forecasting