document: An annual Agriculture Department survey confirmed Thursday that a deadening drought will curtail the fall corn harvest by a third or more , resulting in higher retail food prices for months and years to come . However , government officials said bountiful crops in recent years has built stockpiles so high the United States need not fear actual shortages on grocery shelves and can even continue exporting food . The report came hours after President Reagan signed a $ 3.9 billion relief bill that he acknowledged wo n't bring rain to crops already sweltering , but hopefully will help farmers survive to plant again next spring . The new surveys led USDA experts to predict the 1988 corn crop will total 4.48 billion bushels , down 37 percent from last year 's harvest and the smallest output since 1983 . Sharp reductions also were reported for soybeans , wheat and a number of other crops . Cotton , which thrived last month in the hot , humid weather , is expected to increase from last year . Overall , the department 's Agricultural Statistics Board put total U.S. crop production at 88 percent of the 1977 average , a scale used to compare output from year to year . That matched the low 1983 reading , when sharp cutbacks in government acreage programs , along with drought , reduced crop production sharply . The corn crop is expected to average 78.5 bushels per harvested acre , down from 119.4 bushel per acre last year , a record year-to-year decline of 34 percent . Corn is the largest and most important crop grown by American farmers and , as a feed ingredient , is essential to the production of meat , poultry and dairy products . Assistant Secretary Ewen M. Wilson , the department 's chief economist , said the drought may add 1 percent to the cost of food this year , 2 percent next year . `` Today 's reports confirm that the drought has had a major impact on this year 's crops , '' Wilson told reporters . `` But because of large pre-season stocks , total supplies are enough in most cases to assure and adequate food supply at home , satisfy foreign customers and meet our food-aid commitments . '' Sen. Patrick J. Leahy , D-Vt. , chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee , said in a statement , `` Today 's crop report confirms our fears about the impacts of this summer 's tragic drought . Fortunately , it appears we will have enough stocks to make it through this marketing year . '' The USDA 's grim news came hours after President Reagan on Thursday signed a $ 3.9 billion disaster relief bill aimed at helping drought-stricken farmers recover . `` This bill is n't as good as rain , '' Reagan said to the nation 's farmers . `` But it will tide you over until normal weather and your own skills permit you to return to your accustomed role . '' The new USDA crop estimates were based on field surveys as of Aug. 1 . In May and June , before drought had made its biggest impact , USDA projected the corn harvest _ based on trends and an assumption of normal weather _ at 7.3 billion bushels . But those projections were revised downward a month ago to 5.2 billion bushels , assuming farmers got normal weather the remainder of the season . The soybean harvest was estimated at 1.47 billion bushels , down 23 percent from 1.9 billion bushels produced last year . Prospects last spring called for about 1.88 billion bushels , and the July projection was 1.65 billion bushels . Production of all wheat was indicated at 1.82 billion bushels , down 13 percent from 2.1 billion produced in 1987 . In May and June , the USDA forecast this year 's output would be up slightly . The July projection was 1.84 billion bushels The wheat total included winter wheat planted last fall , which barely stayed ahead of the drought . Later plantings of durum and other spring wheat varieties were brutalized by heat and dryness . Winter wheat production was estimated at 1.55 billion bushels , down 1 percent from last year . But durum and the other spring varieties , which are produced in the hard-hit northern plains , showed sharp declines . Durum was estimated at 54.6 million bushels , down 41 percent from last year 's harvest , and other spring wheat was shown at 212 million bushels , down 53 percent from 1987 . Cotton production was estimated at 14.9 million bales , up 1 percent from last year . The crop was projected at 13.7 billion bales in July . Department officials said U.S. grain production this year is expected to total 192 million metric tons , 31 percent smaller than the 1987 output . The total grain supply for 1988-89 _ which includes inventories on hand at the beginning of the season _ is down 24 percent from last season . In addition to the reductions in corn and soybean yields , Wilson said production of some other spring-planted crops has suffered , including : oats , 206 million bushels , down 45 percent ; barley , 288 million bushels , also down 45 percent ; and sorghum , 561 million bushels , down 24 percent . Wilson said USDA experts `` continue to believe that the drought will add only one percentage point '' to consumer food prices this year . The department has forecast a food price increase this year of 3 percent to 5 percent . Before the heat and dry weather , USDA had expected a 1988 food price hike of 2 percent to 4 percent . Wilson said the drought could add 2 percent to the consumer price index for food next year . `` That 's on top of an additional estimated increase in food prices somewhere in the region of 4 percent , '' Wilson said . `` So this would bring it up to a total of 6 percent . '' He also said the United States is `` looking at an export situation that is not as good as it was a year ago . '' He said production abroad would have to take up the slack in world food supply caused by the drought . `` Our figures here today would indicate that food production in other countries has not been cut that much , '' he said . There remained a possibility that the United States would import some soybeans this year , Wilson said . He scoffed at any suggestion , however , that the United States may have lost its capacity to produce sizeable crop surpluses . He noted that 50 million farm acres are being kept out of production this year in addition to millions of additional acres in the long-term Conservation Reserve Program . Meanwhile , USDA weatherman Norton Strommen said rain in the midcontinent in recent days has not meant an end to the drought . `` The drought , as you can see , is still basically with us throughout the entire United States , '' Strommen said .
extractive_keyphrases: deadening drought annual agriculture department survey fall corn harvest higher retail food prices president reagan sharp reductions food production food price increase disaster relief bill
abstractive_keyphrases: total u.s. crop production