michelcarroll/llama2-earnings-stock-prediction-fine-tune huggingface dataset:
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
Yes, no, so first let me emphasize a point you made. We do not focus on gross margins and how we run the business just like you said. Our focus is on free cash flow generation. In fact, free cash flow per share and how we can grow that over the long-term, right. Because we think ultimately that is what drives value for the owners of the company and you can do that at 67% margin, you can do it at a lower margin, you can do it at a higher margin, depends on a number of factors. So -- and then to answer your specific question, as we have always guided over the long-term, not any one quarter or even any one year, but over the long-term 70% to 75% fall through is the right way to -- generally speak in the right way to look at the model of the company as we go forward. So as you put whatever revenue expectation you have there and fall that through at about that rate and you will be in the ballpark.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
Thank you very much for your question, Timna. Basically, we're maintaining our forecast. Even though we believe that in production, it may be a little bit higher than what we forecast. At the beginning of the year, we mentioned that we're expecting to produce 943,000 tons of copper. At this point, the number looks more like 950,000 tons, but we're still keeping our initial forecast to see how we evolve in that regard through the year. Regarding our capex, we're also maintaining our budget. Please keep in mind that we will be doing some catch-up of work that we couldn't have done through 2020, and that will certainly require some more activity in that regard. Our current forecast is the same that we had at the beginning of the year, which considers $1.4 billion of capital expenditures for this year, for 2021.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
I won't comment. I won't comment on it. It certainly is in line with with a lot of our expectations.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
Well, some of that depends on how many starts come in on the $1 a week. So the more starts that come in on the $1 a week, that will have a muted effect on the ARPU. But our expectation is that you'll see positive year-over-year ARPU for the next couple of quarters. It would take a very, very, very large influx of $1 a week -- new $1 a week promotion subs to make that not come true. I wouldn't expect the sequential to be improving, but the year-over-year.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
I'm sorry. So, that was down 30% year-over-year and up 34%.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
I'll start with that, Steve. Thank you for your quarter comment. The team appreciates it. It's interesting because we've -- it's constantly on our mind.
We're talking about it. Some days, we think the chassis supply is breaking loose with the chips. And then a few days later, we'll hear that there's a short shutdown at one of the chassis suppliers. And we think we got supply on some fiberglass, which I think we mentioned last quarter, where we went to nine different suppliers trying to get the Aerocaps.
And then they'll have some issue procuring supply, and then it moves into the labor piece. So I would tell you it's about the same. It's been the same all year. I mean, it's been a constant battle, but the team -- and I can't say enough about how resourceful they have been.
And actually looking through the backlog and understanding the volume and making sure they had enough product procured, they didn't -- they'd find other suppliers. And that's -- look, that's frankly what allowed us to have the successful quarter that we had. And as we look into Q4, I think we're in pretty good shape. And in the beginning of Q2 -- 2022, things could change.
But right now, it has been the same, and we see it continuing at least through the first half of 2022, for sure.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
So the annual debt amortization for 2022, for example, including the sellers credit that we have to repay in 2022 is $100.7 million. So that's about 7.5% of debt outstanding -- the pro forma debt outstanding. So we will be generating significant free cash flow, but also repaying debt quite aggressively as well.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
Thanks, Jackie.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
Yeah. So, Jacob, why don't you follow-up with some thoughts here?

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
Well, I think as we sit here today, I'm a strong believer -- we are strong believers that the market has stabilized as far as where net effectives are. The concessions, we're not seeing is increasing. They are brutal right now, they are historic high as far as the amount of concessions go, but I think over the past 90 days they've clearly stabilized. We're not doing more TI or more free rents for new tenants coming into the market, as opposed to what then we were doing at the depth of pandemic.
So, I think, we've seen the worst of the of the rents erosion. And I think at this point we're bumping along the bottom and waiting for a turn back up. With regards to holding space off the market that's never been our philosophy in the 20 something years that we've been a public company. We're a strong believers. We have a large portfolio. We keep the portfolio full. We meet the market as necessary. And if that gives up a little bit of opportunity in the short-term, we'll catch it on the next wave, because we've got plenty of well-staged expirations. We don't suffer any one year where all of our space comes back to us on exploration. We are very careful stewards about how we manage our lease expiration so that in every single year we try to make it as even as possible or as level as possible so that if there is an uptick in rents we'll ride that wave when it gets here.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
Sure. Thank you for the question.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
We are. Yes, we are in active discussions with other manufacturers.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
Yes. Okay. Well, I'll let Chris answer -- I'll just let Chris answer the business. Go ahead, Chris.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
Well, I would say, a good portion of it is just a normalization or sort of a full year, if you will of some of the acquisition activity that took place over the course of the year. We picked up a couple of extra months on the ILX and Castex properties and then an extra seven, eight months on the Castex. So five properties as well. So all of that sort of kind of rolls into it, you talked about the additional workover capital that we talked about that we'll see this year, that we didn't see last year.
So we wanted to call that out explicitly.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
Most of the big pay downs are in the U.S. So, I will pass that question over to Mike Capatides. Mike are you on?

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
Thanks Tim. Thanks for the question. So the direct answer is, I probably could, but I'm not going to. We have indicated in the letter, we have kind of arranged those kind of in size of significance. You can kind of take that and use that as a benchmark in terms of those impacts, so mix being first and then followed by the expedite fees and shipping costs and the other stuff related to increased COGS [Phonetic]. So you can take a look at our letter for some guidance in terms of size of impact in that regard.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
That disruption we had, had two specific impacts on our business. The one you're referring to is the pause it placed in our utilization. Having 40% of our locations shut down the better part of a weekend and some of that extended impact certainly paused it. So to that part -- to that -- to your question, we've resumed.
We've recently run back up close to 68% utilization. So our trend on rent continuing to improve has resumed, and we're satisfied with that. The area it had an impact to us, not in Q2, but in Q1 that we can't really replace or resume on, was in our parts and service business. When you lose those man hours, they're just lost.
It's not pent-up demand. We've got adequate demand on the parts and service side of our business, but it had more of a specific impact to parts and service side. But on the rental side, we're in good shape. Our utilization is trending back to our expectations, approaching 68%, and we expect that trend to continue.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
No, these are all prime jumbo.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
I would say we try to be conservative in our estimates, sometimes it's tough to tell. We -- I wouldn't say that there is any imminent declines that we're expecting for many of our other assets then Karma. And, Erfan, I don't know if you have anything to comment on the conservativeness of our guidance.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
Well, I think, again, we want to make sure we don't get ahead of ourselves. We don't get over our skis. And if there's going to be a surprise, we prefer it to be positive. So we have been circumspect on how aggressive to be on guidance. And I think it has, at least over the last few quarters, has served us well. And I think as our sales and marketing organizations get increasingly sophisticated, our ability to really have a higher growth rate and feel very comfortable by hitting those. I think we will be emerging for you. And I think that right now, we have a pipeline that's bigger than we've ever had. Pipeline is nice, but that didn't account for revenue. You've got to close that pipeline. And again, we have a really strong sales force and we're pretty excited about what we can do.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
Well, it's like -- if I'm following Vedula, what we're saying is we've got our best information file. That's what's going in right now with the case that was put before the commission, knowing that a lot of the pieces and parts of that could move or change. And so it's going to allow for those dynamics to move and adjust. I think that's anticipated that there would be updates to that. It isn't -- it's very difficult to set all of that and be perfect at this point. So encompassed in that is sort of a dynamic response element to the way that the rate mechanism works.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
So, Brendan for the fixed non-comps, I would expect that the number for Q2 maybe a bit high, because some of that has to do with new hires and return to office activity we expect that to continue. But, we also have some technology initiatives that were in Q2 that are driving that number up a bit.
On the variable side, obviously a lot of it depends on floor brokerage and trade and execution, which is depends on how well we do that quarter in the markets business. But also, as I said T&E and client entertainment is picking up a bit and we do expect that to continue into Q3 and Q4. But again, the fixed non-comps so this quarter were probably a bit high, but variable will depend on the -- T&E side will pick up, but the trade and execution will be dependent on how much revenue we do in any particular quarter.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
Yeah, so to be honest, John, I don't know that we know for certain. So we expect, ultimately, in our sales, as a result of both the recovery and our continued share gains, we expect independent restaurants to account for same amount of business as it did pre COVID at some point. We just can't say -- we don't have a crystal ball to say what quarter precisely it will be. The number -- the restaurant count, I think, is what you're referring to, may very well be lower for some period.
I think a lot of what's published is forecast of the future. What we see in our data in terms of actuals is, as we've talked about, restaurant count is down slightly over prior year and not nearly anything like what's being reported as forecast. So we think the signs are there for a healthy recovery of independents, and we think, ultimately, it recovers fully to what was pre COVID for our business, anyhow.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): DOWN
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
Yeah, it's a great question. And M&A is very tricky to handicap and predict. What we would anticipate is, we'll remain active in that conversation and certainly with an eye toward continuing to drive value accretion for our shareholders on that front. We continue to think about share repurchases, although we haven't yet initiated a share repurchase plan. We continue to think about that and to talk about that with our Board. Those things can be tricky, as you know, in a commodity-driven wildly cyclical business because generally you have flush cash when your share price is genuinely high and generally low on flush cash when the share price is attractive to repurchase. So, we want to be thoughtful about that and we want to demonstrate discipline to our shareholders.
So we're going to continue in the conversations around M&A and A&D to the extent we can drive value accretion for our shareholders. We'll continue to have conversations with our Board and understand how the investment community thinks about share repurchases. And rather than let the cash just simply pile up on the balance sheet, we'll find good opportunities, whether that's special one-time dividends or increasing the base dividend, we want to have all the tools at our disposal. And I think as long as we've got strong balance sheet, lots of levered free cash flow, available post dividend that opportunities will present themselves.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
Basically Phil, here I think that there is a little bit of -- maybe missed -- not good explanation on our side. In general, the 2 gigawatt factory that we're building will be end of -- construction will happen at the end of 2021. At this point, we will have a factory with all the equipment and capacity needed to manufacture 2 gigawatt hour a year. But from this point of time, we will need a few months to start ramping up the activities in the facilities in the new factory. And this is something that takes a little bit more time. So while the capacity -- the build capacity of 2 gigawatt will be there at the end of 2021, only in the first half of 2022 we will be able to ramp up the production with all the three shifts and all the processes to get to this kind of a run rate.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
By the way, the overall health of the business, very strong. And this is not like lost forever thing. The clients remain in place. The distribution not only remains in place, but our people have spent a lot of time putting a lot of new distribution channels in place, new partnerships across the board. And we are very optimistic that as time goes on, and I just can't pick the time, you're trying to pick the timing of the health crisis right now. And when does it -- when are we able to, around the world, resume travel, economies open up, people leave their homes and get back to work. That's a -- good luck predicting that. You can't. But what we know is, it will over time heal itself. And if it does, that's very vital part of our franchise. It's an excellent franchise in place and we'll get a lot more joy for the effort we've got today.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): UP
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
In our guidance, we're not assuming any additional stimulus. And so we're assuming that the business kind of reverts to more historical trends throughout the year with the economy and everything kind of going back to normal toward the back half of the year. But no incremental stimulus is assumed in our '21 guidance.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME
You are a financial analyst, determining what effect an earnings call will have on the company's stock price, based on a summary of one. Be as critical and skeptical as possible, and remember that the market may disproportionally react to small unexpected details. Respond with one of: UP, DOWN, SAME
 
No, no, no. Other -- we break other revenue into military, business jet, commercial and other and it'll show up in other.

    Prediction (one of UP, DOWN, SAME): SAME