BNSF Transcon: Kansas City to Cajon (Part Two: Clovis to Belen)
Highway 47 Southeast of Belen
In this series, we are following BNSF's Transcon from Union Station in Kansas City, Missouri, to the mouth of Cajon Canyon in San Bernardino County, California. Part One covered the line from Union Station through the Llano Estacado in the Texas Panhandle. Part Two runs from Clovis, New Mexico, on the eastern border of the state, to Belen, hard on the banks of the Rio Grande. As in Part One, the photographs are numbered to correspond to their numeric locations on the inserted maps.
New Mexico is perhaps the most fascinating state in the Union. It contains the oldest state capital (Santa Fe) and the oldest Pueblo cultures in North America -- Zuni, Laguna and Jemez are just three of many. New Mexico is pock-marked with hundreds of volcanoes (many extinct, though not all), the southern end of the Rocky Mountains, mile upon mile of ancient lava fields and a huge escarpment upon which the first atomic bomb (fission) was created (at Los Alamos).
I have previously posted five separate articles on railroads in New Mexico:
https://www.waltersrail.com/2015/11/pecos-river-bridge-fort-sumner-new.html;
https://www.waltersrail.com/2015/12/loma-alta-lucy-and-new-mexico-high.html;
https://www.waltersrail.com/2016/01/abo-canyon-then-and-snow.html;
https://www.waltersrail.com/2016/07/bnsf-west-of-belen-mp-278-to-319.html;
https://www.waltersrail.com/2018/04/bnsf-highway-47-to-mountainair.html.
These are heavily detailed and contain many more images than you will find in this post. Here we are surveying the Transcon across the eastern half of New Mexico; thus, a certain level of detail must be sacrificed.
But none of the high points are missed. In addition, you may find some locations that you were previously unaware of. I hope you find the journey enjoyable.
As the Transcon winds west, it comes to the small town of Clovis, which despite its size contains a major railroad yard -- for Clovis is where the BNSF line to Texas and ultimately Houston ties into the railroad's western highway to the Pacific. Clovis sits on the edge of Llano Estacado (see Part One for a description of this unique geographic formation) and is little different than other towns of the region -- flat, dry, dusty and friendly. Average annual rainfall is about 18.5 inches, much of which falls in downpours that run off into the surrounding streams that are otherwise dry throughout the year. In this country, water is as precious as eyesight.
Photograph #1: Westbound stacks have just left the yard in Clovis. Behind them, a late afternoon thunderstorm is racing eastward, away from the setting sun. In about fifteen miles, the train will leave the Llano Estacado and begin a long, slow descent into the valley of the Pecos River.
Photograph #2. Eastbound stacks are climbing the grade out of the Pecos River valley toward the Llano Estacado.
Photograph #3: A westbound manifest approaches the US Highway 60 overpass east of Fort Sumner, New Mexico.
Photograph #4: An eastbound bare-table is racing across the valley of the Pecos River.
The Pecos River's source is on the eastern slope of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, about 45 miles northeast (as the crow flies) from Santa Fe, New Mexico. Several authorities credit Pecos Falls as the source, but if you follow the river on satellite photographs (such as Google Maps) you will note that the river appears to originate at a natural pond about two and one-half miles north of the falls. The Google Map coordinates of the pond are: 35.973808, -105.558968.
Upstream from where the Transcon crosses, the Pecos is twice dammed to create reservoirs: Santa Rosa Lake and Fort Sumner Lake, both of which significantly decrease the river's flow downstream. In dry months when the dams are closed (most of the year), the Pecos is barely a trickle where it is crossed by the Transcon.
Photograph #5: BNSF's Transcon crosses the Pecos River at Fort Sumner, New Mexico. This image was taken from the abandoned portion of US Highway 60, which was rerouted upon completion of a new highway bridge. One can park on the abandoned black-top without fear of the passing traffic, 65 yards or so away, and photograph trains all morning during winter (when the sun is behind the photographer).
Photograph #6: Pushers on eastbound stacks are crossing the Pecos River, which at this location on this particular day was about ten yards wide and perhaps two inches deep. This image was taken in January, and I am not athletic enough to broad jump 30 feet (with or without camera equipment), so I had to walk through the water in my Gortex-lined boots, which kept my feet dry but not warm.
Photograph 7: Pushers on the Pecos River bridge at sunset.
From the east, the Transcon's decent into the valley of the Pecos River is gradual. To the west, however, the hills rise abruptly out of Fort Sumner, requiring the railroad to meet the grade by running southwest, much as a sailboat tacks sideways into the wind. The grade is steep, but not overpowering. About five miles after crossing the river, the tracks turn sharply northwest, tacking again up the grade, which is surmounted in another couple of miles. The Transcon in this region is isolated, but can be reached with a high-clearance vehicle. Four-wheel drive is recommended.
Photograph 8: Eastbound stacks on the grade toward Fort Sumner.
Photograph 9: A westbound is making the big turn on the hill southwest of Fort Sumner.
Photograph 10: Eastbound autos are racing downgrade, beginning the turn southeast toward the Pecos River and Fort Sumner. In the background is the top of the grade out of the river valley.
Loma Alta to Vaughn
Once the Transcon ascends west out of the valley of the Pecos River, trains cross the high country of east central New Mexico. The land here is not flat, and its breadth is awe-inspiring. Remnants of ancient volcanoes are scattered here and there like bread crumbs, and the nearest tree is far to the east. The tallest plant for a hundred miles is the Tree Cholla, a cactus which in this country rarely grows over three feet.
Because of severe slopes, the tracks wind significantly south of US Highway 60, the main route through this portion of the world, before re-joining the highway for a short distance at Yeso. Then the tracks swing hard to the south again, splitting in an area unapproachable by any road. The original single-track line climbed a steep westbound grade here, so when the line was double-tracked in the 1990's, the new track took a circuitous route up the hill to lessen the grade. The new alignment is clearly visible on maps and satellite photographs, but for years I despaired of ever taking images of the split tracks because of their inaccessibility.
On one trip in the summer with Bear the Mighty Dog, on a whim I decided to drive my Jeep off the main highway onto what looked like a goat trail. All the dirt roads in the area were gated, but this one was open, so in I drove. In about a mile, I saw the beginning of a hill in the distance. As I drove closer, the hill grew, and I soon recognized that I was viewing a small mesa running due east and west about a hundred yards, probably no more than 30 yards or so wide from north to south, and perhaps a hundred feet taller than the surrounding plains. To my amazement, another trail led up the side of the hill, and I was prepared to take it, when a pick-up came along in the opposite direction, carrying three ranch hands. We stopped and chatted for a moment. Their faces were the color of the red soil in that country and about as worn as the old tires on my Jeep. I asked if I could drive to the top of the mesa to take photographs of the railroad. They told me that the name of the mesa was Loma Alta, and that I was welcome to drive to the top and stay as long as I wished, provided I did not disturb the cattle.
The drive to the top was exhilarating, because the trail disappeared about half-way up, and the remainder of the ride was over dirt, rocks, cacti and God knows what else. We bounced left, right, up, down, backwards, forwards, and Mighty Dog looked at me as though I'd lost my mind, which I believe I had. Somehow or other we reached the top, mostly because of blind luck and Jeep engineering, and there we stayed for the remainder of the afternoon. I have to say that Loma Alta has turned out to be one of my all-time favorite railfan spots. I think it might be yours, too, if you can make it to the top.
Photograph 11: This image was taken from the base of Loma Alta. Westbound stacks are crossing the high semi-arid plains of eastern New Mexico. In the foreground are the ubiquitous Tree Cholla cacti that grow here like weeds.
Photograph 12: Late in the day, a lonely BNSF manifest is seen on the high semi-arid plains. At this time of day, when the wind is down, you can hear the trains as far away as you can see them. In this case, the tracks are first visible about 12 miles away on the horizon, and the train is the size of a worm.
Photograph 13: Three trains are visible in this image. The nearest train is westbound. The train in the middle is eastbound. The far train, a manifest, is also westbound and is running on the newer, more circuitous track that takes a shallower grade up the hill. In this country, the only thing blocking your line of sight is the curvature of the earth.
This aerial image shows Loma Alta in relation to the original grade and the new alignment. Also shown are the enormous distances involved in Photograph 13. As you can see, the far train in that image is about six miles from the photographer!
Photograph 14: Pushers on eastbound stacks are racing across the highlands of New Mexico. In the background is Loma Alta, about 12 miles away!
If you are not interested in railroads, then Vaughn, New Mexico, is not much of a place. Today, it looks like a post-apocalyptic ruin, as though a nuclear war might have been fought nearby. At one time, however, before the construction of I-40, Vaughn, the crossroads of three major western highways, sported motels, restaurants and gas stations. Today, with most of the truck traffic on the interstate to the north, there is not much left in town. The motels, restaurants and gas stations are almost all closed, standing silently along the highways, derelict sentinels of a long ago prosperity. The only things in town that give away Vaughn's position as a major railroad destination are the Oak Tree Inn and Penny's Diner, where Union Pacific crews eat and sleep after dismounting and before mounting trains between Kansas City and El Paso. Vaughn is also the location where BNSF's Transcon crosses the UP on a grade separation. Thus, we have a major railroad junction as close to the middle of nowhere as you can get and still be on the face of the globe.
I have eaten several meals at Penny's Diner and am fascinated by the picture on the wall of the boys' and girls' basketball teams. Students must come in from miles around. There can't possibly be enough people in Vaughn to supply high school basketball. But maybe I am wrong. Maybe there is more here than meets the eye. In any event, if you like to gaze at night at stars minus light pollution, Vaughn is your place.
Photograph 15: Pushers on westbound stacks are approaching Vaughn, New Mexico. The Union Pacific line to El Paso, Texas, which crosses the Transcon at Vaughn, runs near the base of the mesa in the background.
Photograph 16: Closer to Vaughan, trailers race east to Chicago.
Photograph 17: The original AT&SF line across what is now the Union Pacific was a single track flyover. In the summer of 2017, when this image was taken, BNSF was constructing a second, grade-separated track to ease what had become a significant bottleneck on the Transcon. Here, a westbound manifest is passing a road grader leveling the dirt on what will become the second track.
Photograph 18: In the winter of 2017, the new second track is completed and is supporting westbound stacks. The original single-track flyover is visible in the background.
Photograph 19: UP meets BNSF on the original Vaughn flyover.
Photograph 20: An empty eastbound coal train approaches the Vaughn flyover from the west.
Encino to Willard
West of Vaughn, the geography and geology become quite interesting. The Transcon runs on a relatively flat grade until turning downhill and ducking under US Highway 60, dropping about 150 feet in the process. To the north and west are the Pedernal Hills, which have always looked to me like the remnants of ancient volcanoes. The following source, however, indicates that the hills are likely "a remnant of the ancestral 'Rocky Mountains' and are seen today as gently rolling hills of eroded Precambrian rocks."
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Rod_Holcombe/publication/266012323_PRECAMBRIAN_ROCKS_OF_A_PORTION_OF_THE_PEDERNAL_HIGHLANDS_TORRANCE_COUNTY_NEW_MEXICO/links/56da202808aee73df6cf6a82/PRECAMBRIAN-ROCKS-OF-A-PORTION-OF-THE-PEDERNAL-HIGHLANDS-TORRANCE-COUNTY-NEW-MEXICO.pdf
Later in the text, though, the authors propose the hypothesis that portions of the Pedernal Hills "probably represent part of a submarine volcanic field" active long before the formation of the ancestral Rockies. So maybe my intuition is not totally mistaken. In any event, I can find no map of New Mexico volcanoes that includes the Pedernal Hills.
As we move west, annual precipitations lessens. In Encino, average rainfall is about 13.5 inches per year, which means this country is just above arid or desert status. (Ten inches or less of rain per year means you are living in a desert.). The one constant I notice about life in this part of the world is dust. When the wind blows, which is most of the time, the air is thick with it and can quickly contaminate camera gear. In this country, I always cover my camera and the top of my tripod with a towel while waiting for a train.
Photograph 21: A westbound grainer has crossed the Vaughn flyover and is headed west toward Encino, New Mexico. Soon the tracks will turn downgrade and drop about 150 feet as they duck under US Highway 60, from which this image was taken. The winter grass has turned bright yellow and the January sun hangs low in the southern sky.
Photograph 22: Westbound stacks are gliding downgrade, preparing to pass underneath US Highway 60.
Photograph 23: In this image, the photographer is standing at the top of the hill in the image immediately above, looking west toward the Pedernal Hills. A bit of snow remains from an overnight dusting as the train struggles into the grade.
Photograph 24: Two stack trains meet at the US Highway 60 overpass. Photographer is looking east, as in photograph 22.
Photograph 25: Trains meeting just east of Encino, New Mexico, with Manzano Mountains in background. These mountains overlook the valley of the Rio Grande River, and the Transcon passes through them in Abo Canyon.
West of Encino, the Transcon turns hard to the southwest and passes the ghost town of Lucy, which once contained a school and two churches. When the climate dried during the Dust Bowl of the 1930's, literally everyone moved away. The only things left today are a few isolated ranch houses.
Beautiful golden grass covers the valley now, obscuring for the most part ancient lava. I have searched high and low but can find nothing about this particular location, probably because New Mexico is covered with far more dramatic lava flows, including the one at El Malpais National Monument, which occurred about 3,000 years ago. The lava at Lucy is barely noticeable and barely raises an eyebrow in this country.
Photograph 26: An empty coal train meets westbound stacks (pulled by NS power) across the ancient lava field at Lucy, New Mexico, with the Pedernal Hills in the background.
Photograph 27: Eastbound stacks at Lucy.
West of Lucy, the Transcon enters the Estancia Basin, which today contains the salt flats and remnants of two lakes that filled and then evaporated over several thousand years. The basin initially formed when the Sandia, Manzano, Manzanita and Los Pinos Mountains were uplifted during formation of the Rio Grande rift about 15-20 million years ago. During the last ice age (between 12,000 and 24,000 years ago) a large lake filled the basin, about 40 miles long and 23 miles wide. Today, it would cover the towns from Estacia to Willard with about 100 feet of water. At the end of the last ice age, the lake dried up. Then as the climate grew wetter, the lake filled again, and this newer reservoir has been dubbed Lake Willard by geologists. Over time, since the newer lake had no drainage to any river, the water became heavily saline. When the second lake also dried up, left behind were a residue of salt, sodium sulfates and magnesium sulfates. The following aerial photograph shows the salt flats, which US Highway 60 and the Transcon cross at Silo.
Photograph 28: BNSF 5160 East is climbing through the salt flats east of Willard, New Mexico.
Photograph 29: An eastbound Z-train at Silo after a light snow.
Photograph 30: Westbound stacks have come down off the salt flats and are approaching Willard, New Mexico, from the east.
Photograph 31: BNSF 7527 East has just left Willard. The photographer is looking west toward the Manzano Mountains.
Following is the Wikipedia entry for Willard, New Mexico, as of December 31, 2018: "Willard is a village in Torrance County, New Mexico, United States. The population was 240 at the 2000 census. It is part of the Albuquerque Metropolitan Statistical Area. The village is not experiencing the same extreme growth that towns farther north in the state are. A wind farm has recently been constructed upon the mesa just south of the town. It provides power for about 25,000 homes in Arizona."
It is not my intent to overly analyze an entry from Wikipedia, but several things from this quote are interesting. First, including Willard in the Albuquerque MSA is amusing, to me at least, because the two towns are separated by a mountain range, visible in the image immediately above.
Second, to say that Willard is not experiencing "extreme growth" is somewhat misleading. Willard is not experiencing any growth at all. A drive through town on US Highway 60 will convince you that what is left of the tiny settlement could blow away at any moment.
Finally, although I am not an electrical engineer, I do understand that generating stations, whether coal-fired or wind-driven, feed electricity into the grid and are generally not dedicated to a specific location. So I wonder, perhaps pointlessly, why a wind farm in Willard would send dedicated power to Arizona? Doesn't Albuquerque need the electricity?
Photograph 32: This image, taken in the center of town, gives some idea that Willard is not experiencing "explosive growth."
Photograph 33: In railroad circles, Willard is probably best known for the huge curve just west of town. Above, stacks and trailers are negotiating the change of direction on a hot day in July.
Photograph 34: A westbound manifest has just come off the big curve at Willard. In the distance stand the Pedernal Hills -- above the motive power.
Mountainair to Scholle
At the village of Mountainair, westbounds turn downgrade and begin the long descent through Abo Pass into the valley of the Rio Grande. This is the only easy passage from the high country of eastern New Mexico through the central mountains. The original AT&SF line to Albuquerque surmounted both Raton and Glorietta Passes, each with grades of three percent that proved operational nightmares, so eventually the Santa Fe constructed the Belen Cut-off to circumvent those grades, passing far south of Albuquerque, crossing the Rio Grande at the hamlet of Belen (Spanish for Bethlehem).
Today, Belen contains a major BNSF yard. All eastbound and westbound trains stop for crew changes and inspections of motive power and rolling stock. To reach this town, the Transcon winds through wide and relatively unchallenging Abo Pass surrounded by desert cacti and mesas, eventually approaching a narrow crevice in the mountains -- Abo Canyon. This section of our Transcon survey covers the line from Mountainair to Scholle, the eastern mouth of the canyon where (before the widening project in the early 21st century) double-track turned to single track for a narrow passage through canyon walls
Photograph 35: An eastbound mineral train is climbing the grade to Mountainair.
Photograph 36: A loaded coal train passes a manifest at Abo, New Mexico, which was once a small station and settlement on the Belen Cut-off.
Photograph 37: An eastbound manifest climbs the grade at Abo, New Mexico.
Photograph 38: Westbound grain at Chilton's Crossing.
Photograph 39: Eastbound empty coal at Chilton's Crossing.
Photograph 40: Westbound autos are gliding downgrade through Abo Pass.
Photograph 41: In one of my favorite locations in the pass, which I've heard called Abo Curve, a westbound stack train is headed toward the narrow confines of Abo Canyon. This was before the canyon was widened and double-tracked in the early 21st century. The exposed sandstone, schist and clay show the enormous climatic changes undergone in this region in the past 300 million years.
Photograph 42: Eastbound trailers struggle into the grade as they approach Abo Curve.
Photograph 43: Westbound stacks have entered the single track at Scholle, with a late afternoon thunderstorm in the background. This image was taken before BNSF widened Abo Canyon and installed a second track.
Photograph 44: An eastbound manifest is leaving Abo Canyon after a heavy January snow. The train is on the original narrow track through the sandstone and limestone. The near track was added by BNSF when the canyon was widened.
Almost since the beginning of the AT&SF and Burlington Northern merger, Abo Canyon has been heavily monitored for trespassers. I have thus never obtained an image of BNSF power in the canyon. Shortly before the merger, however, in 1995, when Santa Fe was still running shiny new warbonnets, I made a trip west and obtained my last photographs in the canyon, some of which I present here as penance for my failure to obtain BNSF images. The images are arranged from east to west through the canyon.
Photograph 45: A westbound merchandise freight is entering Abo Canyon from the east. In the background is the US Highway 60 overpass. The second track through the canyon was constructed to the right of the track in this image and cut a huge swath through the surrounding sandstone and limestone. If I were to hike today from the overpass to the location where this image was taken, I would be immediately accosted by BNSF personnel, who would not be friendly.
Photograph 46: Eastbound stacks and trailers are preparing to exit the canyon near the location where the previous image was taken.
Photograph 47: A westbound intermodal is photographed from the same location as immediately above, only looking in the opposite direction.
Photograph 48: Eastbound trailers are emerging from the cut visible in the rear of Photograph 46.
Photograph 49: The camera is looking into the cut at the rear of Photograph 48. When this image was taken (1995), the Santa Fe freely allowed railfans into the canyon for photography. All you had to do was show up at the Belen office and sign a release. Then you could drive all over the place. If you look closely in this photograph, you will see a white vehicle parked to the right of the last unit. The photographers were two young men in Bermuda shorts who spent the entire day racing back and forth through the canyon like disturbed gerbils. I stayed above in the hills and enjoyed the show.
Photograph 50: One day in the canyon, I stumbled across a group of what I believe were bighorn sheep. My identification my be wrong, because I am not a zoologist, but this image shows a portion of the herd, which was led by the male in the center of the picture with his back turned. I think they smelled me before they saw me, but eventually they recognized danger and began moving lower in the canyon. When they neared the Santa Fe tracks, the male climbed up and looked in both directions, checking for trains. They he went back and led the females, other males and adolescents across, one-by-one, until everyone was safe. Then he crossed, and they disappeared into the mountain cedars. No one believes this, but it is absolutely true.
Photograph 51: Westbound stacks cross the last bridge on the west side of the canyon.
Photograph 52: Westbound stacks are exiting Abo Canyon at Sais, with the Los Pinos Mountains in the background.
Map 10
After the Transcon exits Abo Canyon on the west, the tracks run downgrade across the remarkably wide valley of the Rio Grande River. The land slopes steeply from the waters' edge to the base of the Mazano Mountains, and trains crossing this arid country look like black threads on white cloth. At the bottom of the valley sits Belen, New Mexico, a division point and major yard.
Photograph 53: A westbound coming out of Abo Canyon meets an eastbound climbing the grade out of the valley of the Rio Grande River, with the Manzano Mountains watching silently in the background.
Photograph 54: Two BNSF freights meet on the upslope of the Rio Grande Valley. The horizon accurately shows how the land tilts upward toward the Manzano Mountains, giving some idea of the tectonic forces at work.
Photograph 55: Eastbound stacks are climbing toward Abo Canyon beneath the Monzano Mountains. This image was taken in December, when the sun is low in the southern sky.
Photograph 56: Eastbound stacks are climbing toward Abo Canyon beneath the Los Pinos Mountains. This image was taken in mid-June, when the June sun rises north of due east.
Photograph 57: Eastbound stacks are climbing the grade out of Belen, New Mexico, toward Abo Canyon at sunset.
Photograph 58: Belen, New Mexico in 1995.
Thus ends Part Two of the journey across the BNSF Transcon from Kansas City to Cajon Pass.
Posted by Paul Walters at 11:31 AM


For Kurds in Kirkuk, Iraq election proves more divisive than ever
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While the economy and corruption seem to be the dominating discourse in the run-up to the Iraqi elections, the Kurds in Kirkuk are not only entangled in infighting but also at odds with Baghdad. Political uncertainty looms over the city's prospects.
Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al Abadi, speaks to his supporters during an election campaign in Kirkuk, on April 28, 2018. In Kirkuk, Arabs and Turkmens will increase their political representation against Kurds, political analysts say. (Ako Rasheed / Reuters)
Jalal Talabani, one of the most prominent Kurdish leaders in Iraq, always wanted to describe Kirkuk, Iraq’s oil-rich multilingual and multiethnic city, as the Jerusalem of the Kurds. Talabani was also the founding leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), a major Kurdish party in Iraq.
Talabani, who was the first Iraqi president of Kurdish origin, passed away several days after the Kurdish independence referendum was held on September 25, last year. Most Iraqi Kurds supported the referendum, but it collapsed as central government forces took over Kirkuk, a long disputed city between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the Baghdad government.
KRG forces claimed the city using the Daesh attacks as a pretext in 2014.
The PUK’s Kurdish peshmergas, who just like their leader, revere the city, reportedly struck a deal with the Iraqi military through Iranian political operators led by Iran’s powerful General Qasem Soleimani. They left the city without any serious resistance against the marching central government forces.
Masoud Barzani, the KRG’s former president and leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), another powerful Kurdish party in Iraq, called the PUK withdrawal a betrayal, reflecting some of the tensions between the Kurdish factions.
Now, on the eve of Iraqi parliamentary elections, Kurdish factionalism may also cost Kurds their majority in Kirkuk, considered a mini-Iraq due to its distinct mix of Turkmen, Arab and Kurdish populations.
An Iraqi security member dips his finger in ink after casting his vote at a polling station, two days before polls open to the public in a parliamentary election in Kirkuk on May 10, 2018. (Ako Rasheed / Reuters)
The city has seen many changes throughout its history. During the Ottoman period, the Turkmen political presence was more powerful than any other ethnic group in the city. But under former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein’s policies, the city’s ethnic balance changed considerably, at the expense of Turkmens. With the KRG’s takeover of the city, Kurdish migration to Kirkuk increased, making the Kurdish population the largest in the city.
Although this should be reflected in the election, the reality may be different. In Kirkuk, there are 13 seats to contest. Of the 13 seats, one is always reserved for the Christian minority. Consequently, in the last parliamentary elections, eight seats were claimed by Kurds and four were evenly divided between the Turkmens and the Arabs. There are more than 900,000 registered voters and nearly 300 candidates in the city, representing more than 30 different parties.
Barzani’s KDP boycotts elections in Kirkuk and other disputed areas, which the party believes were unlawfully occupied by the Baghdad government after the unsuccessful referendum bid. But Baghdad believes the city had been illegally occupied by KRG forces.
Nonetheless, the KDP decision to boycott the elections will have a lasting effect on Kurdish votes in the crucial city, which has also been known for its oil-rich fields, located in the middle of the country.
“On October 16, Kirkuk fell. The KDP boycotts elections and the party leadership has advised its base to vote for either the Kurdistan Socialist Party, an ally of the KDP, or the Islamic Union Party in Kirkuk,” said Mehmet Bulovali, who served in 2010 as the head advisor to Tariq al Hashimi, a former vice president of Iraq.
Some of the KDP votes will also go to the PUK and the National List, which includes the Coalition for Justice and Democracy, a new party established by Barham Salih, the former deputy leader of the PUK and other Kurdish parties like Komal and the Gorran movement, Bulovali observed.
While the city is widely considered a loss to the Kurdish community in these elections, there is still debate on how exactly the loss will play out.
“One Kurdish seat could go to either Turkmens or Arabs. But because of the constitutional requirement, three seats out of 12 seats have been reserved for women. As a result, Kurds might lose another seat because of the women quota,” said Bulovali, who is a Kurdish native from Kirkuk.
“At the end, Kurdish and Arab-Turkmen seats could even be split as 6-3-3,” Bulovali told TRT World. If Bulovali is right, Kurds would lose their majority in Kirkuk.
But Avni Lutfioglu, a Turkmen political analyst and a former adviser to Iraqi Turkmen Front leadership, thinks differently. “At most, Kurds will lose one seat and defend their majority in Kirkuk,” Lutfioglu told TRT World.
Iraqi women walk past a campaign poster of candidates ahead of the parliamentary elections, in Najaf, on April 14, 2018. After the elections, the country’s parliament will be even more divisive than its current shape, analysts assess. (Alaa Al-Marjani / Reuters)
Iraqi elections: A political deadlock?
After the US-trained Iraqi army and its Shia allies backed by the US air force defeated Daesh last year, Iraq appeared to be a more united state than ever under the new prime minister Haider al Abadi. But the parliamentary elections do not seem to reflect this newfound unity.
“The biggest political group can just win 30 seats. That’s all. If at least four or five or 10 different groups join for a coalition, then, they can establish a government,” Bulovali observed.
Shias, Sunnis and Kurds – who are the three major populations and make up a majority of the country’s social fabric – are more politically divided than ever.
Although both Abadi and his predecessor, Nouri al Maliki, two Shia Arab politicians who served in the governing State of Law coalition as members of the Dawa Party, will contest these elections under new separate alliances they established.
Hadi al Amiri, the leader of the Badr Organisation, which is a powerful Iran-linked Shia militia alliance, will also contest the elections under a separate alliance, the Fatah Alliance. He was previously part of Abadi’s governing coalition, but decided to withdraw from it last December.
Hadi al Amiri, the leader of the Badr Organisation, attends an election campaign rally, along with his Fatah Alliance supporters, in Kirkuk on May 2, 2018. Amiri is leading one of the major Shia alliances in Iraq. (Ako Rasheed / Reuters)
Muqtada al Sadr, a powerful Shia cleric, who is heavily criticising the Abadi government, has established a political alliance with the country’s communists.
“Amiri, Abadi and Sadr are leading the most powerful alliances. Abadi seems to be more powerful than others. He can even receive votes from Sunnis,” said Lutfioglu, a Sunni Turkmen activist.
On the Sunni side, the Iraqi Islamic Party, which is closely tied to Iraq’s Muslim Brotherhood, has established an alliance with Iyad Allawi, one of the strongest Shia leaders, who is leading the secular Wataniya Party.
Kurds seem to be more divided than ever, especially since their referendum bid hit the wall last year. Talabani’s death and the fall of Kirkuk exacerbated tensions, within Kurdish political groups. Even the Gorran movement – a splinter group from the PUK – is losing some support after their charismatic leader, Nawshirwan Mustafa, unexpectedly died last year.
“Let’s have their elections and then, we can say that they have done their elections as democracy requires,” said Bulovali, referring to the mindset of US power brokers. “The US will ultimately design the formation of the governing coalition according to its own vision because it knows there will be no big political block at the parliament.”
He exemplifies his point with the 2010 parliamentary election, when Allawi’s alliance got most of the seats. “Constitutionally, Allawi should form the government. But [the] US pushed the button and Maliki established the government,” Bulovali recalled. Maliki also resigned from the prime ministry under US pressure, leaving his place to the current Prime Minister Abadi.
Iranian influence is also very powerful in Iraq, but Bulovali thinks it will decrease because the country is now facing enormous pressure from the US and Israel. In the past, the US and Iran have worked together to form governments in Iraq, Bulovali pointed out, however, this may prove difficult in these current circumstances, with only the US proving to have a continued, lasting influence.
Lutfioglu agrees with him. “American intervention will determine the formation of the Baghdad government after the elections.”
Who are the main players in the Libyan conflict?


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Policy is being produced in a statistical vacuum
By Ann Bernstein|2019-02-26T10:50:40+00:00September 13th, 1995|Op-ed|
South Africans are loose in the way they use statistics and factual information. It is a dangerous habit.
For example, in 1988 on behalf of the Urban Foundation, we estimated that 7-million people lived in informal circumstances. This was a very rough ballpark figure. Yet, to this day, that figure is still quoted by most politicians, officials and the media as the country’s squatter population. No one has thought to question whether the population might have grown in the past seven years! Another example is the ever-changing figure for the population of Soweto. No one knows for sure, and this seems to give anyone who cares license to invent whatever number suits their purpose.
In 1989 the Urban Foundation provided the country’s most comprehensive assessment of national demographic and income trends available at that time. The key message of this work was twofold: the failure of apartheid in urban and rural SA and the importance of focusing on the country’s growing cities as the centres of national economic growth and development.
The Centre for Development and Enterprise (CDE) has just completed a major new study of the country’s demographic and income trends, based on a second and updated edition of the foundation’s earlier demographic and income distribution models. The 1995 study is the only integrated and comprehensive analysis of recent population and income trends.
This means that if you say the population of Cape Town is growing by about 10 000 people a month, for this claim to have credibility you need also to explain where these people are coming from (eg the Ciskei) and more importantly demonstrate that studies there show a diminution of that rural population. Statistics that neglect this are unreliable.
Some important findings and conclusions emerge from the study. A new SA geography is emerging in terms of which urban and rural areas can be thought about in more rational terms. The CDE work classifies the population into those who live in metropolitan areas (places of more than 500 000 people of which there are eight in the country); cities/large towns (60 000-500 000 people in 45 places); small towns (1 000-50 000 citizens in 278 different towns); and rural areas.
Although it is useful to impose this rational classification on SA’s apartheid landscape, it is important not to ignore the anomalies of our racial legacy. Botshabelo, about 50km outside Bloemfontein, is one example of this. It is not part of the Bloemfontein urban area and has been excluded from their local government structures. It would be misleading to call it a town, as it is an apartheid creation where people were dumped in the middle of the veldt. There is no real economic base and virtually no community facilities. Initially it was officially classified ‘non-urban’; the 1991 census now regards it as urban. Neither classification would seem to reflect its status accurately. Similar difficulties exist in other areas. What about the densely settled parts of what used to be KwaNdebele from which many residents commute to work in different parts of Gauteng?
One thing is certain: many people, and probably the majority classified as rural, have no connection at all with agricultural production. We need to know about these densely settled ‘apartheid-created’ communities. The next census needs to use a classification which will make their situation more visible. Above all we need to ensure that ‘apartheid’s hidden urbanites’ are not ignored in the policies and programmes of the government.
All our figures come with an important warning attached. There are large and important areas of ignorance and uncertainty concerning SA demographics. There are no reliable statistics (and do not believe anyone who claims there are) concerning the scale of illegal immigration; and the pattern and rate of internal migration. In addition, the base of all our models is the 1991 census. Although this census was better in some respects than earlier surveys, insufficient resources were devoted to capturing new and complex dynamics of an expanded population. However, to reject the census altogether is to plunge the country and decision makers into the realm of pure speculation and with all the faults the census data is better than nothing. At minimum, the CDE models will need to be tested as new data becomes available.
The analysis shows that population projections for the country as a whole are lower than those made before 1992. Earlier estimates for 2010 were 59,7-million. Our new estimate is 53,4-million. One of the reasons for the lower projection is that black fertility has dropped more rapidly than was expected – an equivalent decline in fertility in a shorter period than it took whites. The notion that black people have more permanent ‘cultural’ predisposition towards large families is patently wrong.
In line with this will be 5-million fewer people in the metropolitan areas by 2000 than previously forecast. Nonetheless the greatest share of the country’s population increase is still expected to occur in the metropolitan areas, and the study forecasts there will be 7-million people in metropolitan areas in 15 years time. This will have enormous consequences for how we plan, and govern our cities.
The new study shows that previous work seriously underestimated the population growth and potential of SA’s intermediate cities and large towns. Population growth rates between 1981 and 1991 for this category were almost twice that of the metropolitan areas. This is an area of opportunity for the country. This finding also dispels the notion that ‘everyone is coming to the PWV (Gauteng) region.
With respect to income data, CDE finds that between 1985 and 1995 average per capita income rose for all population groups except whites, who suffered a small decline. This translates into a gradual and widely spread improvement in black living standards despite the drop in real per capita income for the country as a whole. The proportion of households in poverty dropped between 1985 and 1990 but rose slightly between 1990 and 1995 because of very poor performance between 1989 and 1993. It is clear that economic growth is the key ingredient (necessary but not sufficient) in tackling national poverty.
The pattern of poverty is much the same today as it was in 1983 – 94% of all poor households were black and 64% lived in small towns or remote rural areas. However, this does not mean urban poverty should be ignored. There is substantial, potentially explosive, urban poverty.
On the basis of its work, CDE would make the following recommendations to the government.
First, it should recognise and publicly acknowledge the problem of SA’s inadequate demographic and income statistics.
Second, it should formulate a strategy to redress this situation where no one knows for sure the scale and nature of the challenges we face.
Third, when in doubt about development needs, do not rely on existing macro-demographic and official statistics, but conduct new studies.
Fourth, revise the system of designing and undertaking censuses in SA. This should not be done by central government alone. Partnerships are required with other levels of government, with the private sector and with communities.
Finally, establish a computer based information system accessible to all citizens and tiers of government.
National statistics should not be influenced by political ideology (their interpretation might be but that is a different matter) and this means that the independence and analytic rigour of the national information and data collection system has to be assured.
Ann Bernstein, Business Day
The role of politics in development
Running out of Road: South Africa’s public finances and what is to be done
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The cost of servicing our debt is eating our future
Now is the time for CR’s endgame! Statement by CDE on South Africa’s growth and fiscal crisis
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Scientific Biblical Studies
Seminar On The ‘True Text’ On-line Lessons
Return To Lesson Nine
Advance To Lesson Seventy-Five
What Is A Heartbeat Engine And How Do You Build One?
SEMINAR ON THE “TRUE TEXT”
LESSON 58 – THE PROBABILITY/CERTAINTY MATRIX PRINCIPLE
AKA “WE AIN’T IN KANSAS ANYMORE, DOROTHY.............AND DOROTHY II”
Copyright June 19, 2005 10:02 PM CST
Updated June 22, 2005 9:22 PM CST
Copyright June 22, 2005 9:22 PM CST
We have jumped ahead to lesson 58 because of criticisms that we have been receiving via email. It is time to silence this particular batch of critics. We call this particular batch of critics “The Number Crunchers” or “TNCs” for short.
The Probability/Certainty Matrix Principle states:
There is a causal relationship between probability and certainty. This relationship is a mechanism built into the human psyche by the Creator. Experience has taught us that we can use the psychomechanistic events associated with this mechanism, which we have named the “psi mechanism,” to extrapolate “future moves”…as in a chess game. An illustration is in order:
A good chess player, according to one expert, sees a minimum of ten moves ahead…a great chess player sees 50 moves ahead…and a master chess player sees 200 moves ahead.
Our point is that your ability to anticipate future consequences is directly proportional to the intensity and duration of your involvement in the intellectual processes associated with the forecasting of those consequences.
Now, what does this have to do with confirming the ancient, biblical text? Science is not simply a matter of information. It is also a matter of prediction. (Forgive me but I have to interject a note on a totally unrelated topic and that is that the theory of evolution HAS NEVER PREDICTED ANYTHING!) Now, prediction extends the boundary of information. It extends the boundary of information into the Unknown.
No 100% confirmation of the biblical text is possible unless you can cross over into the realm of the Unknown. We have capitalized the word “Unknown” so that you will understand that we are not talking about the “normal unknown.” We are talking about the “scientific unknown.” The scientific unknown, the Unknown, unlike the normal unknown, has restrictions placed upon it.
In order to gain the benefit of the knowledge in the realm of the Unknown, via predictions (more specifically, predictive science or forecast science, which is totally based in statistics and the new science of textual calculus established by us) we must have a big enough “knowledge base.” Now, this knowledge base is far more than what statisticians call “a statistically valid sample.” It is a multiply cross-referenced matrix of data. THIS DATA IS ALL NUMERICAL. The reason that it is all numerical is that 100% certainty is only possible in the world of numbers. Verbal logic can get you 99.9999999999% of the way to the truth. This, of course, is well beyond the percentile necessary for “reasonable certainty.” This means that NO ONE ACTUALLY NEEDS OUR RESEARCH IN ORDER TO BE CERTAIN OF THE TRUTH. MORE SPECIFICALLY, NO ONE NEEDS OUR RESEARCH IN ORDER TO BE REASONABLY CERTAIN OF THE TRUTH.
The logical question, then, is why bother to achieve 100% certainty. 100% certainty is necessary for those who either REFUSE OR ARE UNABLE to believe the truth once they have been provided with reasonable certainty. Those who are unable fall into a special category. These are people that God has appointed special tasks in the administration of the world.
Now, we can talk about numerical logic as opposed to verbal logic.
WE WILL NOW FOR THE FIRST TIME ANYWHERE REVEAL ONE OF THE GREAT SECRETS OF OUR RESEARCH:
First, we will give you an example/illustration to ease you into the truth:
Up until about ten years ago medical science believed that the computer-generated, computer screen configurations (patterns) representing the beating of defective, human hearts was totally random. They kept collecting data on these (seemingly) random configurations and, lo and behold, after several years, their analytical program DETECTED A PATTERN. Now, don’t miss the following:
The pattern was so complex that it would have taken two million people working seven million years to figure it out. However, the analytic program being used was able to accomplish in one second what it would have taken one person a year to accomplish. The end result is that the analytic program was able to perform seven million years of work by two million people in a week.
Now, what application does this have to the confirmation of the ancient, biblical texts. Very simply THERE ARE “NONRANDOM PATTERNS” IN THE ANCIENT, BIBLICAL TEXTS. Now, this is something totally new. This has nothing to do with any “Bible Code” discoveries that have been in the news in the last couple of years or so.
Here for the first time revealed anywhere are the “Heartbeat Engines” of the ancient, biblical text. The term “Heartbeat Engines” comes, in part, from the analogy of the human heart study that we referred to above. HERE ARE THE FIRST THREE “HEARTBEAT ENGINES” OF THE ANCIENT GREEK NEW TESTAMENT MANUSCRIPTS:
Alpha – Destiny
Beta – Centron
Gamma – Logos
There are, in all, 777 Heartbeat Engines. 90% of what we need to accomplish can be accomplished using the AD, BC, and GL engines above.
The most important discovery made through the application of these first three engines is that it is 99.9999999999% probable that the Alexandrian manuscripts have been edited from their original form. Of course, are goal was 100% probability; so we didn’t stop there. Applying most of over one hundred other HX (HX = Heartbeat Engine) engines we were able to establish the 100% probability that the Alexandrian manuscripts were edited from their original form. Note that “100% probability” is “textual calculus” language for “documented certainty.” Documented certainty is “more certainty than you need to be certain.” It is “more certainty than ‘reasonable certainty.’”
We have provided enough information on this web page to refute all of the arguments and so-called proofs presented by the TNCs referred to above. For a detailed discussion of Heartbeat Engines read What Is A Heartbeat Engine And How Do You Build One?
Following are the conventions used in the Greek text we are using in our seminar. See Lesson Six for a sample of the use of the variant tags.
We are using a compilation of the Greek New Testament that has variants identified and tagged for reference to source of transmission and schools of emphasis.
For ease of reference, the verse numbering scheme has been made to conform closely to that found in most standard English versions of the New Testament, following the Authorized (King James) Version of 1611. Where considerate verse numbering differences occur, they are added to the text in brackets.
Breathings, Accents, And Diacritical Markings
All breathings, accents, capitalization, punctuation, and diacritical markings have been omitted. These are primarily a product of modern editorship and are lacking in ancient manuscripts.
Book Titles And Colophons
Book titles do not appear. The Greek closing colophons to the epistles that appear in the English of the Authorized Version have been placed in brackets [] wherever they occur in the Stephens 1550 edition (only).
Variant Tagging Method
The following tags have been applied to those words peculiar to one stream of transmission or scholarly group that emphasizes a particular variant word. Those words with no tag do not differ in the various printings of the Greek.
T = Stephens 1550 Textus Receptus.
The text used is George Ricker Berry's edition of "The Interlinear Literal Translation of the Greek New Testament." This text is virtually identical to Erasmus 1516, Beza 1598, and the actual Textus Receptus: Elzevir 1633. Berry states, "In the main they are one and the same; and [any] of them may be referred to as the Textus Receptus." (Berry, p. ii)
These early printed Greek New Testaments closely parallel the text of the English King James Authorized Version of 1611, since that version was based closely upon Beza 1598, which differed little from its "Textus Receptus" predecessors. These Textus Receptus editions follow the Byzantine Majority manuscripts, which was predominant during the period of manual copying of Greek New Testament manuscripts.
S = Scrivener 1894 Textus Receptus
The text used is "h Kainh Diaqhkh: The New Testament. The Greek Text underlying the English Authorized Version of 1611" (London: Trinitarian Bible Society, 1977). This is an unchanged reprint of Scrivener's "The New Testament in the Original Greek according to the Text followed in the Authorized Version" (Cambridge: University Press, 1894, 1902).
Scrivener attempted to reconstruct the Greek text underlying the English 1611 KJV for comparison to the 1881 English Revised Version. In those places where the KJV followed the Latin Vulgate (John 10:16), Scrivener inserted the Greek reading, as opposed to back-translating the Latin to Greek--which would have produced a Greek word with no Greek manuscript evidence. Scrivener's work follows the Byzantine Majority texts, and in many places matches the modern Alexandrian-based editions.
B = Byzantine Majority
The text is that identified by Freiherr Von Soden, "Die Schriften des Neuen Testaments in ihrer altesten erreichbaren Textgestalt" (Gottingen: Vandenhoeck und Ruprecht, 1911) and Herman C. Hoskier, "Concerning the Text of the Apocalypse" (London: Bernard Quaritch, 1929). This technique of Byzantine identification and weighting was utilized by Hodges and Farsted in "The Greek New Testament according to the Majority Text" (Nashville: Thomas Nelson, 1982; 1985). It was subsequently utilized by Robinson and Pierpont, resulting in 99.75 percent agreement between the two texts.
The Byzantine Majority text is closely identified with the Textus Receptus editions, and well it should with greater than 98% agreement. As Maurice Robinson pointed out in his edition of the Byzantine Majority: "George Ricker Berry correctly noted that 'in the main they are one and the same; and [any] of them may be referred to as the Textus Receptus' (George Ricker Berry, ed., The Interlinear Literal Translation of the Greek New Testament [New York: Hinds & Noble, 1897], p. ii).
A = Alexandrian
(Some of the comments that follow will be confusing to anyone learned in the “Alexandrian dispute.” We will clear up this confusion at a later stage in the “text building” process.) The differences are those identified by the United Bible Society, 3rd edition, and utilized by modern translations such as the NIV and the NASB. While these variants come from manuscripts with less textual evidence than the Byzantine Majority, many of the differences are exactly the same as those identified by the Byzantine Majority and Scrivener. The percentage of variants is quite small and occurs mainly in word placement and spelling. Many of the variations identified are omitted or bracketed words, which is not surprising due to a significantly smaller base of text from this stream of transmission.


Taxpayers Paid $1,091 For City Officials to See Michelle Obama
Mayor, mayor pro-tem in Forest Hill resign amid spending scandal
By Scott Gordon	• Published at 8:51 pm on January 16, 2019
The mayor and mayor pro-tem of Forest Hill resigned on Wednesday after it was revealed the city paid more than $1,000 for them to attend an event with former First Lady Michelle Obama.
Mayor Lyndia Thomas and Mayor Pro-Tem Beckie Duncan Hayes quit immediately before fellow council members had scheduled a vote to oust the two.
"They were ripping us off,” said Leslie Jasperson, a longtime citizen of Forest Hill who decided to check up on how city officials spend tax money.
Through open record requests, she uncovered a check for $1091.92.
That's how much the town of 13,000 paid Thomas and Duncan Hayes to buy tickets for a “conversation” with the former first lady in Dallas last month.
To Jasperson, it seemed like a misuse of public money.
Fellow council members agreed and planned a vote to oust the pair.
But immediately before that meeting, they resigned -- even as they defended billing the city for the Obama event.
"We don't get paid a salary. But we do -- we are entitled to be reimbursed for our expenses,” Thomas said.
They claimed going to see a former first lady is a perfectly legitimate city expense. They also said they reimbursed the city the money – not because they did anything wrong but because of “the fuss.”
"We have a public relations fund,” Duncan Hayes said. “In our public relations fund, we can go to -- it doesn't specify what we can do and where we can go. But it's set aside for us to go and learn."
The former mayor said it’s a learning experience.
"When you're out there, you're more or less, building relationships, connecting with people, trying to find out things or whatever,” she said.
Jasperson doesn't buy it.
“It's not PR,” she said. “What are they going to learn from Michelle Obama that they are going to bring back the city? I mean really.”
To add another twist, the mayor and mayor pro tem who just resigned are still running for election in May. If they had been ousted, they wouldn't have been allowed on the ballot.
"I'm expecting to win,” Duncan Hayes said.
And for now, deputy mayor pro tem Clara Faulkner is acting mayor.
“I am astonished,” Faulkner said. "The city is moving forward. We will continue to move forward. We can only go up.”


New Ukraine
Eng Укр Рус
23 June 2017 usnews.com
Power to Ukraine's People
Article for «U.S. News & World Report»
As West Germany rebuilt itself in the wake of World War II's mass devastation, framers of the new order paid careful attention to the lessons learned from the Weimar Republic to the defeat of Adolf Hitler's regime. The results were a careful balance of powers in the new constitution, and the so-called Basic Law, which essentially ensured that the regions of Germany had as much say in the country's governance as the capital, first in Bonn and now in Berlin. Eventual reunification depended on first getting the pieces in order – or at least one of them. The rest came later.
While the situations are not entirely analogous, Ukraine today is a divided country as a conflict continues in the East. The costs of this fighting have been steep, with tens of thousand killed, millions displaced and billions in lost property and industrial capacity – not to mention territory. But it has not been a total war in the respect that the political elite in Kiev has adapted to the realities of this conflict. It is not a secret that Ukraine has certain political forces which benefit from war. Some politicians from the ruling coalition are openly calling for cutting off Donbas and completely disenfranchising our citizens who live there.
Recently, new laws passed by the ruling coalition introduced quotas for use of the Russian language on TV, blocked Russian social media networks in Ukraine and, in so doing, disenfranchised a significant percentage of Ukrainian citizens from enjoying the same basic rights of communication and expression enjoyed by people around the world – including in many authoritarian regimes. An Orwellian Ministry of Information regularly threatens media that does not conform with the state's official narratives, and opposition television stations have been attacked by allegedly unofficial militias that enjoy close relations with the parties that make up today's governing coalition. One of these television channels, Inter, was fire-bombed and raided last September, and while this occurred in broad daylight, there have been no convictions. After all, the purpose of intimidating the media is to instill fear in the opposition.
And high-level corruption – ostensibly the cause of the 2014 Euromaidan revolution – has not abated, but as a whopping 80 percent of Ukrainians believe, has actually blossomed over the past three years.
All of these obstacles to a free and prosperous country are sustained in one form or another by the specter of war. So while fighting in the East consists today of skirmishes rather than offensives, it may be premature to begin building a lasting and durable peace. But it is not too early to begin laying the framework for the kind of peace that the citizens of Ukraine, if not the "coalition of war," demand.
Germany's post-war experience is applicable to this framework, and to key elements which made up the 2015 Minsk II agreement between Moscow and Kiev. These include devolving more authority from Kiev to the regions and constitutional amendments that would create a stronger balance of powers in the country by transferring the major bulk of power to local and regional governments. The current Kiev government does not want to pass these changes, officially because they demand the withdrawal of heavy weapons from Donbas first, but in actuality because such changes would undermine the corporatist regime they built and strengthened in the name of war.
A new constitution can and must become a way out of today's crisis. For the structural reforms that would facilitate peace to become a source of growth for Ukraine, the people in all of Ukraine's regions must be given more say over their own government. That means direct election of governors rather than their appointment by the president. It also means reducing the size of the national legislature, or Verkovna Rada, and giving back to the people's body more of the authorities Ukraine's powerful presidency has usurped in recent years. The political processes in our country need to be reformed if we are to make a dent in the ever-deepening corruption.
The constitutional and broad legislative changes that we need to achieve these outcomes can only happen as a result of a process of national reconciliation and dialogue, and the reintegration of Donbas. Those who desire an end to war and a truly unified country – and it is almost 80 percent of Ukrainians – support this, and those who do not have fallen into the trap of what one wise man called man's greatest stupidity: forgetting what he was trying to do in the first place.
While the cold stalemate in Ukraine's three-year conflict may seem to have adopted an unhealthy sense of normalcy, the time for movement towards peace may be at hand. Recently, a senior Russian official recognized for the first time the need for direct talks between Moscow and Washington on the Ukrainian question. And America's new president, under fire by opposition in his own country for allegations of being too close to Russia, may have a surprise or two in store when it comes to being a potential peacemaker. As U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson suggested in recent testimony, it may well be time to start thinking outside the Minsk box when it comes to solutions for Ukraine.
But in Ukraine, our changes must come from within, and the best way to make changes stick is to enact constitutional reform. Reforms should address the imbalances that exist in our political structures for peace and unity to become the kind of sine qua non to which the late Zbigniew Brzezinski referred in his final tweet last month. These changes can become a path towards peace in Ukraine and give new energy to Ukraine's development. The once divided and later reunified Germany sets a powerful example. Now we must find the internal resolve to ensure for our children the kind of united Ukraine they truly deserve.
https://www.usnews.com/opinion/world-report/articles/2017-06-22/ukraine-needs-a-new-constitution-that-gets-power-out-of-kiev
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14 Tue Dec 2010
St. John of the Cross, based on Zephaniah 3:1-2,9-13, Matthew 21:28-32
Zephaniah 3:1-2,9-13
Ah, soiled, defiled, oppressing city! It has listened to no voice; it has accepted no correction. It has not trusted in the Lord; it has not drawn near to its God. At that time I will change the speech of the peoples to a pure speech, that all of them may call on the name of the Lord and serve him with one accord. From beyond the rivers of Ethiopia my suppliants, my scattered ones, shall bring my offering. On that day you shall not be put to shame because of all the deeds by which you have rebelled against me; for then I will remove from your midst your proudly exultant ones, and you shall no longer be haughty in my holy mountain. For I will leave in the midst of you a people humble and lowly. They shall seek refuge in the name of the Lord— the remnant of Israel; they shall do no wrong and utter no lies, nor shall a deceitful tongue be found in their mouths. Then they will pasture and lie down, and no one shall make them afraid.
Jesus asked: “What do you think? A man had two sons; he went to the first and said, ‘Son, go and work in the vineyard today.’ He answered, ‘I will not’; but later he changed his mind and went. The father went to the second and said the same; and he answered, ‘I go, sir’; but he did not go. Which of the two did the will of his father?” They said, “The first.” Jesus said to them, “Truly I tell you, the tax collectors and the prostitutes are going into the kingdom of God ahead of you. For John came to you in the way of righteousness and you did not believe him, but the tax collectors and the prostitutes believed him; and even after you saw it, you did not change your minds and believe him.”
By: Mr. Norm Laurendeau, O.P. calling in from Brunswick, Maine, USA
Norm Laurendeau was a lay Dominican and a semi-retired professor of Mechanical Engineering at Purdue University who died in May 2012. He published and conducted research in the areas of energy and environment, with a focus of the use of lasers to monitor pollutants. He was a fully professed lay Dominican since May, 2006. While moderating the St. Mary Magdalene pro-chapter in West Lafayette, IN, he was instrumental in developing a lay preaching mission within chapter meetings and at communion services. He was also heavily involved in the science-theology dialogue, and explored the relationship between science and mysticism. In 2010, he chaired a conference on Energy and Religion for the Institute for Religion in an Age of Science (IRAS). Most importantly, he was married to Marlene Carlos Laurendeau, who is a social worker and spiritual director. They lived in Brunswick, ME, near where Norm grew up. They wintered in Berkeley, CA, near where Marlene grew up.
« Advent light in a world of darkness	» Learning that it is all for God’s sake


Home / Resources / SupplyLink
Mechanical Contractor Sees Benefits of LEAN Practices
A visit to Tweet-Garot Mechanical’s fabrication shop can wear you out. Trailing after Chris Warren as he enthusiastically scurries from one example of Lean practices to the next, you’re thankful for each stop because it gives you a chance to catch your breath.
Chris is the Director of Risk Management and Lean Continuous Improvement for Tweet-Garot and he is obviously proud of what his company has done to reduce waste since beginning its implementation of Lean practices.
Green Bay, Wisconsin-based Tweet-Garot is a leader in the fields of process piping, sheet metal and plate fabrication, industrial ventilation, HVAC and plumbing. The mechanical contracting firm performs this work in the commercial, industrial, and institutional marketplace using approximately 350 mechanical engineers, plumbers, steamfitters, boilermakers, sheet metal workers and service technicians supported by 60 administrative employees. About 85% of its job sites are in Wisconsin with the rest in 16 other states.
Another LEAN Success Story
Pure Castings: Molten Metal in the Heart of Texas
See how Grainger helped another customer cut costs.
Tweet-Garot is one of a growing number of mechanical contractors in the United States that is implementing Lean practices. Until recently, Lean Manufacturing practices were typically embraced by manufacturers but not by the construction industry. In simplest terms, Lean Manufacturing is a systematic way to add value for your customers and reduce waste.
Tweet-Garot Goes Lean
Tweet-Garot began thinking about what it would take to identify and reduce waste throughout its organization. Chris, at that time the company’s Safety Director, was charged with leading the Continuous Improvement and Lean initiative. At the start of the investigative process, Chris says, [they] learned [they] were already doing a lot of stuff that could be considered Lean practices. “We were already a very good, clean, organized company. But like the book Good to Great says, good is the enemy of great. We weren’t really improving. If we would have been struggling, Lean would have been easier to implement.”
Tweet-Garot was about 1-1/2 years into its Lean journey when they started a part of the process known as Value Stream Mapping. “The key take-aways from the Value Stream Mapping were the elimination of duplicate purchase orders, and implementation of better inventory management of consumables through Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI).
Following that first step on the Lean path, the next step was a cleaning and organizing effort known as 6 Sigma (Safety, Sort, Set in Order, Shine, Standardize and Sustain). “Take this welding station as an example,” says Chris. “The idea came from an employee who said, ‘Every time I go to get a welder it takes me a certain amount of time to set it up.’ And by the time he gets it set up, the power cord plug may be broken because it was allowed to hit the floor, so then there’s down time. And if the plug is cracked, he has to make a decision. Does he plug it into 440 or not? So we were forcing an employee to make a safety decision that he shouldn’t be forced to make.”
Before This familiar site illustrates the cluttered environment that made it difficult to find needed equipment.
After Tweet-Garot learned the importance of keeping like equipment in one spot for all employees to use, like these welders.
Looking at before-and-after photos of the welding stations, the difference is striking. Where there used to be clutter there are now company-standard and labeled storage places for wire, whips, the power cord, and even the bottle cap. “Through our tracking, we found that it costs us 90 cents per minute for our employees to walk around to find a tool, a part or material they need. Instead of walking around, we want them to be productive and involved in changing the state of a fabricated piece,” says Chris. “Instead of having them spend 10 minutes setting up a welder, now they can spend two minutes because that welder is in good shape when they get to it. That leaves them with more productive time and it also makes the workplace safer.”
Chris said his company spent about $3,000 changing and labeling the hooks and other storage areas of 49 of its shop welders, and he estimates ROI in about 14 months. “That doesn’t include non-tangible benefits such as eliminating frustration,” he adds. Tweet-Garot took what it learned from that welder 6S experience and applied it to a 6S project on the hoist fitting racks in the fabrication shop.
“Owners” (employees responsible for managing the rack) are identified by magnetic signs on each rack. These employees also educate their co-workers on the importance of putting things back where they belong. “Now we have a supermarket approach,” says Chris. “Every time you walk up to the rack, you know where to find something and [you can] instantly see whether or not it’s there. If you spend a minute putting it back, you save the next person 10 minutes who otherwise would have to go hunt for it.”
Lean Practice Comes to Construction
“There is a marked increase in contractors implementing Lean practices over the past two years, as well as other service industries, including healthcare and government,” according to Dennis. “They see it as a means to gain competitive advantage of more loyal customers and reduce costs by eliminating waste.”
The New Horizons Foundation, an initiative founded by SMACNA and leading sheet metal contractors, recently funded research on Lean practices in construction. The research included a survey of HVAC and sheet metal contractors. 58% of them said they were familiar with Lean. Of those who were familiar with Lean, about half (48%) said they have implemented some form of Lean in their companies. “Some mechanical contractors are implementing Lean because their customers – general contractors and owners – are now requiring it,” says Dennis.
“Mechanical contractors are part of the supply chain working with a general contractor, so we have lots of in-between customers in addition to the owners,” says Chris. “Some of them have asked us to have Six Sigma tools in place that we could demonstrate to them, so we are educating ourselves to their level of Lean systems.
Tweet-Garot’s Lean experience was an important factor in winning a multi-million dollar contract for a hospital construction project in Wisconsin’s Door County. “It was a requirement that the contractors, subcontractors and all management players have Lean experience,” says Chris. “Without that experience, we would not have qualified to submit a bid. And it came down to only two mechanical contractors that qualified. We view the future and we want to be involved in those types of projects. Even though that’s a smaller market, we want to be invited to the table because of our reputation.”
Sources: Tweet-Garot Mechanical


John Maclean
Source: Glasgow Caledonian University: Gallacher Memorial Library
John Maclean's matriculation record, 1903
Revolutionary Socialist
Born 24 August 1879, Pollokshaws, Scotland.
Died 30 November 1923.
A revolutionary socialist and leading member of the Red Clydeside movement.
Connection to the University of Glasgow: Alumnus
Discover more Socialist; teacher on the University of Glasgow Story website
The following achievement is associated with John Maclean:
Leading the Red Clydeside movement
A revolutionary socialist of international standing, John Maclean was an honorary president of the first Congress of Soviets and appointed by Lenin as Bolshevik consul for Scotland.
John Maclean (1879-1923)was a Glasgow graduate who became a revolutionary socialist, a teacher, and the most famous of the Red Clydesiders. A bitter opponent of capitalism and imperialism, he dedicated his life to Marxist revolution and the cause of the working classes.
He was born in 1879 in Pollokshaws. Although his father died young his mother was determined that John would have an education. He trained as a teacher through the Free Church and studied part-time at the University of Glasgow from 1898 to 1904. He included Education and Political Economy in his Arts curriculum and graduated MA in 1904. He taught at Lorne Street School, but spent most of his free time running classes in Marxist Economics and History for trade unionists, workers and activists. When he was convicted under DORA in 1915 the Govan School Board sacked him and he devoted himself wholly to activism. James Maxton was a fellow student at Glasgow and shared platforms and causes.
He was sent to prison three times during the war for offences under the Defence of the Realm Act and sedition. His political work continued after the war and he was imprisoned again twice in 1921, after outdoor meetings advocating action. His Scottish Workers' Republican Party contested Glasgow by-elections in 1923 but failed to achieve mass support. Prison life, hunger strikes and force feeding took its toll and he died on 30 November 1923, aged forty-four. He remains a hero in the history of the left, celebrated in song, poetry and plays.


« See all of Famouss' Songs
PlayDOPETALK
by Famouss
the title says it all.. DOPETALK.. Famouss displays excellent word play on this one..
Uploaded: January 3, 2010
Duration: 3m 5s
Comments for DOPETALK
William Hung had his 15 minutes , why not put these guys on BJs stage..lonely at the top ???
by tom garrow on April 23, 2010 at 12:40 PM EDT
1st time today, not the last as Ourstage doesn't remove any material that has been flagged offensive.
by Aguitar on April 22, 2010 at 12:50 PM EDT
ok I'm gonna leave messages at each band and see how many times the same one comes up where I have to vote and see how many of the top 10 bands actually show up and compare. Also note the time a single band has come up in the rotation.
by Aguitar on April 21, 2010 at 7:59 AM EDT
horrible, sounds like all the other crap out there. Wrong comp my friend
by Chris Rossetti on April 19, 2010 at 11:49 PM EDT
Bad Bad BAD. How about teaching "you don't need to cuss to be cool"? Be a positive influence. You can tell a story without being trashy and crude. The world is hard because of people like you who keep acting like life HAS to be tough
Day two round
by Charley Payton on April 18, 2010 at 11:15 PM EDT
Thumbs down, just like your pants.
by Dee Dee Wilk Hedges on April 18, 2010 at 6:08 PM EDT
RAP SUCKS
by heranatomy on April 16, 2010 at 3:18 AM EDT
by Lenore Ramos Long on April 15, 2010 at 11:51 PM EDT
WOW!!! you know how to curse and swear... your just perfect for a Bon Jovi audience.
by Aguitar on April 15, 2010 at 6:25 PM EDT
Famouss


PARENTS' NIGHT OUT
FRI. 12/20, 5-8PM @ THE LITTLE GYM OF BELLEVUE
GAMES. GYMNASTICS. FREE PLAY. FOOD.
Please TEXT 206.747.1769 to save your spot.
BRENDA'S BAGS
© 2013 Empowering Dignity in Girls Everywhere
ALIMO OLYMPIA JOYCE
Olympia was born into extreme hardship. As a child, she lost her mother to AIDS, was abused by her step Mother, and was abducted by the Lord’s Resistance Rebel Army as a sex slave. The LRA used to force these children to kill, often even their own family in the most unthinkably horrific ways. When Olympia refused to kill an elderly man, the soldiers decided to kill her instead, but miraculously she was able to get away and survived with only a bullet shot wound. When she escaped, she learned she was now an orphan as her Father and Grandmother had also both been killed. She went to stay with the only remaining family she had; her brother and his wife, but when her brother died in a motorcycle accident, his wife decided she did not want to take care of Olympia anymore, and one night, took everything they owned and left Joyce all alone. It was shortly after in which we found each other. Olympia has a heart of gold, and continues to become a confident young woman who feels worthy of life. Because of what she has survived, it is Olympia’s dream to help others. She has just begun University and hopes to become a social worker.
EDGE believes in the ripple effect of empowering women, and that the way to create sustainable change is through development. EDGE is constantly evolving by those we work with. These are their courageous stories.
LIMPE OKEMA GRACE
Grace was born in the bush after her parents were abducted by the Lord’s Resistance Army. She was given a fire arm and trained to be a child soldier by the time she was 7 years old. “Food was got through attacking (Internally Displaced Peoples) camps and villages. Sometimes we could take 3 days without eating. Life was unbearable because there was no hospitals or clinics and I was in poor health. We could sleep on grasses, no house. Many people were killed in front of us as children, including my Dad was also killed when I was seeing. They could even cut people into pieces. Girls were forced to “marry” big men. There are many things terrible which was done…” After being forced to watch the killing of her Father, Limpe’s mother “went mad” and being around her made Limpe once again fear for her life. Because of the trauma she experienced, Limpe even thought those who rescued her were going to kill her. She was taken to a primary school for orphan survivors of the war. Because of lack of resources, most children who attend primary school are not able to reach secondary school, and this is when most of the girls are forced to marry. When I met Limpe, she was selling distilled alcohol and charcoal. She has recently enrolled in University, and is looking forward to studying Social Sciences so that she can work with “Community, Children and Mothers.”
AKII SARAH
Sarah was abducted by the Lord’s Resistance Army and remained in captivity for 3 years. After escaping, she lost her Mother and Father shortly after to AIDS. When we first sent Sarah back to school, someone in her village tried to poison her out of jealousy. She struggled in school and suffered from terrible PTSD; a concept not acknowledged in this cultured. When she had an episode related to her PTSD, the school, thinking she was “possessed by the Devil”, sent her back to the village without any of our knowledge. She was there for only 2 weeks, and was raped and fell pregnant. During that time, Sarah took a break from school, and we helped her open her own kiosk so that she could support her and her son. One night, the kiosk was robbed and she once again lost everything. When EDGE collaborated with a program called “Healing and Rebuilding our Communities” to host Trauma Healing workshops, Sarah was profoundly impacted. After so many years of pain and suffering, Sarah is finally coming into her confidence. Her son is now 4 years old, they are both back in school, and she has dreams of becoming a Nurse.
ATIMANGO RUTH BRENDA
Brenda's Father was killed by the Rebels when she was 5 years old. Treated violently by her late husband’s family, because she was now a widow, and because most village women aren’t given the opportunities to gain the tools necessary to be independent, Brenda’s Mother went to stay with her Parents, along with Brenda and her two siblings. One night, the Rebels came into their home, demanding Brenda’s Grandmother kill her Grandfather, and sent her to fetch an axe. When she escaped, the Rebels burned down their home with her Grandfather inside. Brenda, her Mother and her siblings were only spared because they were sleeping outside. “After the death of my Grandfather, things became harder and the conditions worsen. There was no any other options for my Mom than getting married to another man.” Brenda was not allowed to join her Mother’s new life, and when her Mother found out that her new husband was HIV positive, she had already contracted there and died shortly after. Brenda attended a Government Primary School for war-affected children, but when she could not afford Secondary School, began to spend her days digging in the field and collecting firewood; the cyclical life of women in the villages. “[It was then] I was connected to ‘Auntie Jenna’ and it was exciting to me to meet other girls. That's what gave me hope. She promised to help us studies with all the love we deserve.” After Brenda graduated from Secondary School, she decided to attend a Certificate Level school for Industrial Art and Design and recently graduated. EDGE is now collaborating with Brenda to create own business of making and selling stunningly unique, handcrafted bags. She looks forward to opening a factory this year, and plans to train other women to become independent and self-sufficient as well. “My life was hard. But now, I am looking forward to having a great future.”
APIYO SCOVIA TRACY
“The world we are living in is full of sorrows and suffering, especially when you don't have both parents.” Scovia's Mother left when she was only 2 weeks old, and only returned after her Father was abducted and killed by the Rebel Army, but died shortly after to AIDS. “Now after the death of my Mother, I had sleepless nights and dreams was pains, suffering in my life and future. I never received nor had parental love and care. Even eating, drinking, dressing was a miracle in my day.” Scovia didn’t even have money for soap, and dug in the fields to try and survive. Given the opportunity to go to Primary School, she even repeated Primary 7 to “avoid early marriage.” “What I couldn't dream or expect in my life was to get in school, or an angel to come take me in school.” When Scovia graduated Secondary School, she decided to attend an Industrial Arts and Design Program with Brenda, and recently graduated. Recently, she discovered she was pregnant. Though she is a long-term relationship and is now in her 20s, she has experienced ostracizing backlash because she is not married. This has been an extreme source of stress for her, as she has been very sick this year. Scovia loves to sew, and EDGE will be helping her create a training center to teach other women how to sew too, so that both she and them can continue to find and maintain their independence.h the killing of her Father, Limpe’s mother “went mad” and being around her made Limpe once again fear for her life. Because of the trauma she experienced, Limpe even thought those who rescued her were going to kill her. She was taken to a primary school for orphan survivors of the war. Because of lack of resources, most children who attend primary school are not able to reach secondary school, and this is when most of the girls are forced to marry. When I met Limpe, she was selling distilled alcohol and charcoal. She has recently enrolled in University, and is looking forward to studying Social Sciences so that she can work with “Community, Children and Mothers.”
MAMA AJOK AND OYELLA
When I met Ajok, she was carting jugs of water back and forth for mile as miles, all day long, earning the equivalent of 25 cents a day. One night, she told me, her husband left to find work in Sudan and never returned, leaving her to fend for herself and her young daughter, Oyella. Ajok was abducted by the Lords’s Resistance Army as a child, and is living with HIV/AIDS. EDGE pays for her daughter’s Primary School and is helping Ajok open her own kiosk.
CONCY GRATY
I met Graty when she was cleaning the office I worked in whole living in Uganda. Supporting 9 children, she was only earning the equivalent of $25.00 a month. Graty was born in 1974, and was abducted by the Lord’s Resistance Army at the age of 6. She remained in the bush with the Rebels for one year, before being “assigned as an army house wife.” Graty was married off by the age of 14, and had 4 children, before her husband brought in a second wife who abused them. Together with her 4 children, she bravely left her husband, and took in 5 other orphans, though she only earned the equivalent of just over $20 a month. Graty has HIV. When asked what business she would like to start, she said she would like to sell charcoal. This has increased her monthly wages and sense of stability drastically. Soon, Brenda, another recipient of EDGE who has learned the craft through her schooling will begin teach Graty how to hand-make beautiful bags, adding to her income-generating potential, financial independence, and therefore, quality of life and empowerment.
ABER JENNIFER
Aber lost both of her parents to the LRA Rebels when she was only 9 years old, forcing her to drop out of school to take care of her 2 brothers. In her early twenties, she had a child as a single mother. When we met, she was working 10-12 hour days, washing clothes with a baby strapped to her back, for the equivalent of $27 a month. Last year, Aber lost both of her brothers and her only son in a motorcycle accident. Devastated, she is and now taking care of her brother’s child, and has decided to go back to school. As a 29 year old in Uganda, this is very brave.
ACHIRO MELISA PROSSY
Melisa was unlike most young Ugandan women you meet. While the others found it hard at first to look me in the eye, Melissa liked to sign and perform for me. She had big dreams of becoming a star, and walked through life with a contagious spirit and a vinrant step.
“I was born in December 1995. Well I Become An Orphan In This way. My Dad Was Being Kill By LRA Kony group, and I did not see him cause I was still in my Mum’s womb. My dad was being cut in to pieces that what they told me after me growing up. For three years, my life was very hard in village because of the War. My Mum ran with to the bush when the LRA had started to fight. I remember many girls taken as there wife and rape. In some school in our village, Teachers were cut into pieces and cooked by them and were force to be eaten by pupils at school. Hmmmmm Pliz Unty Can I stop Here? (Because of the nature of their trauma, and since trauma is not really acknowledged culturally, it took many years for Melisa and others to begin to tell their stories, and sometimes it was too much.
Two years ago, we lost our Melisa; suddenly, from undetermined causes.
Her sudden and young passing highlights the inequities many in the world face, as so many lack access to proper health care. Melisa had been sick quite a lot this year, and like the other girls, had been in and out of the hospital, suffering from tuberculosis, pneumonia and multiple bouts of malaria. The week she died, she had been hospitalized because her body was in pain, but was discharged when the tests showed nothing concrete.
Melissa was finishing her last year of high school and was developing a program to teach sex education and health in the villages during her school holidays.
This dear loss only solidifies the importance of the work we do to give girls and women and equal chance at life. Where human rights are lost, so are lives.
Shortly before her passing, in response to talking about all who have supported her, she said: "Send My Greeting To Everyone At Ur Home... tel Them I Lov Them All."
So thank you... Thank you for helping to show her that her life, and her time on this earth mattered. I know she would want us to continue the fight in her honor.