A breakout prediction method comprising: using an input unit, a step of inputting a dimension of a solid product withdrawn from a mold in a continuous casting machine; a step (S2) of detecting a temperature of the mold by a plurality of thermometers embedded in the mold; using an interpolation processing execution unit, a step (S3) of executing interpolation processing on the detected temperatures detected by the plurality of thermometers according to the dimension of the solid product, wherein the step (S3) of executing the interpolation processing includes calculating a temperature by executing the interpolation processing on the detected temperature of each of the plurality of thermometers, at a center point of each of a plurality of calculation cells equally divided according to the dimension of the solid product, and wherein a number of the calculation cells is kept constant even when the dimension of the solid product is changed; using a degree-of-deviation calculation unit, a step (S4) of calculating, based on the temperatures calculated by executing the interpolation processing, a component in a direction orthogonal to a sensitivity coefficient vector obtained by principal component analysis as a degree of deviation from normal operation in which a breakout has not occurred, wherein the sensitivity coefficient vector represents a direction of an average behavior of the temperatures of the calculation cells obtained by the interpolation processing for the thermometers during normal operation, and wherein the sensitivity coefficient vector has sensitivity coefficients of the thermometers as components; and using a breakout prediction unit, a step (S6) of predicting a breakout based on the degree of deviation. using an input unit, a step of inputting a dimension of a solid product withdrawn from a mold in a continuous casting machine; a step (S2) of detecting a temperature of the mold by a plurality of thermometers embedded in the mold; using an interpolation processing execution unit, a step (S3) of executing interpolation processing on the detected temperatures detected by the plurality of thermometers according to the dimension of the solid product, wherein the step (S3) of executing the interpolation processing includes calculating a temperature by executing the interpolation processing on the detected temperature of each of the plurality of thermometers, at a center point of each of a plurality of calculation cells equally divided according to the dimension of the solid product, and wherein a number of the calculation cells is kept constant even when the dimension of the solid product is changed; using a degree-of-deviation calculation unit, a step (S4) of calculating, based on the temperatures calculated by executing the interpolation processing, a component in a direction orthogonal to a sensitivity coefficient vector obtained by principal component analysis as a degree of deviation from normal operation in which a breakout has not occurred, wherein the sensitivity coefficient vector represents a direction of an average behavior of the temperatures of the calculation cells obtained by the interpolation processing for the thermometers during normal operation, and wherein the sensitivity coefficient vector has sensitivity coefficients of the thermometers as components; and using a breakout prediction unit, a step (S6) of predicting a breakout based on the degree of deviation. <EOS>