A computer-implemented method performed comprising: obtaining, by a server, a date when a fire occurred within a geographic region; obtaining, by the server, first satellite imagery of the geographic region from before the date when the fire occurred within the geographic region; selecting, by the server, a first set of imagery from the first satellite imagery, the first set of imagery (i) captured before the date when the fire occurred within the geographic region and (ii) does not illustrate fire occurring within the geographic region; generating, by the server, a first statistical distribution from the first set of imagery; determining, by the server, a start date of the fire based on a comparison of the first satellite imagery to the first statistical distribution; obtaining, by the server, second satellite imagery of the geographic region from before and after the determined start date when the fire occurred within the geographic region; selecting, by the server, a second set of imagery from the second satellite imagery from before the start date when the fire occurred within the geographic region, wherein an amount of the second set of imagery is smaller than an amount of the first set of imagery; generating, by the server, a second statistical distribution from the second set of imagery from before the start date when the fire occurred within the geographic region; determining, by the server, an end date of the fire based on a comparison of the second satellite imagery occurring after the start date to the second statistical distribution; and providing, for output by the server, a range that includes the start date of the fire and the end date of the fire within the geographical region. obtaining, by a server, a date when a fire occurred within a geographic region; obtaining, by the server, first satellite imagery of the geographic region from before the date when the fire occurred within the geographic region; selecting, by the server, a first set of imagery from the first satellite imagery, the first set of imagery (i) captured before the date when the fire occurred within the geographic region and (ii) does not illustrate fire occurring within the geographic region; generating, by the server, a first statistical distribution from the first set of imagery; determining, by the server, a start date of the fire based on a comparison of the first satellite imagery to the first statistical distribution; obtaining, by the server, second satellite imagery of the geographic region from before and after the determined start date when the fire occurred within the geographic region; selecting, by the server, a second set of imagery from the second satellite imagery from before the start date when the fire occurred within the geographic region, wherein an amount of the second set of imagery is smaller than an amount of the first set of imagery; generating, by the server, a second statistical distribution from the second set of imagery from before the start date when the fire occurred within the geographic region; determining, by the server, an end date of the fire based on a comparison of the second satellite imagery occurring after the start date to the second statistical distribution; and providing, for output by the server, a range that includes the start date of the fire and the end date of the fire within the geographical region. <EOS>