A method for determining the risk of outages on an electrical network infrastructure of a territory comprising a number N dep of overhead high voltage feeders called overhead HV feeders d in the case of a storm, characterised in that it comprises for a coming storm: - for each overhead HV feeders from said territory, at least one calculation of probability P d t 100 that said feeder is cut off according to the equation drawn from a Cox model including as constraint the maximum gust value r t to be undergone by said feeder between the beginning of the coming storm and a time t: p d t = 1 − e − λ 0 r d t e ∑ i = 1 n β i X i d - with X d = X 1 d , ... , X n d environmental covariates of said overhead HV feeders and βi the parameters representing the impact of said covariates on the risk of failure of said overhead HV feeders, said environmental covariates including forecast data of said storm according to a meshing of said territory and data specific to the installation of said overhead HV lines and said overhead HV feeders; - at least one step of calculating an average number of outages between the start of the storm and time t E N cut t 110 on the territory or a portion of the territory including a step of selecting a number of feeders N d from the considered geographical area according to the formula: E N cut t = ∑ d = 1 N dep p d t = ∑ d = 1 N dep 1 − e − λ 0 r d t e ∑ i = 1 n β i X i d - For which N cut t is the random variable representing the number of outages between the start of the coming storm and the time t of said overhead HV feeders; - at least one display and/or a backup of the data of the average number of outages E N cut t depending on potentially impacted feeders and the outage probability p d t for each feeder; and characterised in that the calculation of probability p d t is reiterated for each value of t comprised between 0 and the time of end of the storm in order to evaluate the evolution of E N cut t in real time during the storm so that it can be memorised and/or displayed. - for each overhead HV feeders from said territory, at least one calculation of probability P d t 100 that said feeder is cut off according to the equation drawn from a Cox model including as constraint the maximum gust value r t to be undergone by said feeder between the beginning of the coming storm and a time t: p d t = 1 − e − λ 0 r d t e ∑ i = 1 n β i X i d - with X d = X 1 d , ... , X n d environmental covariates of said overhead HV feeders and βi the parameters representing the impact of said covariates on the risk of failure of said overhead HV feeders, said environmental covariates including forecast data of said storm according to a meshing of said territory and data specific to the installation of said overhead HV lines and said overhead HV feeders; - at least one step of calculating an average number of outages between the start of the storm and time t E N cut t 110 on the territory or a portion of the territory including a step of selecting a number of feeders N d from the considered geographical area according to the formula: E N cut t = ∑ d = 1 N dep p d t = ∑ d = 1 N dep 1 − e − λ 0 r d t e ∑ i = 1 n β i X i d - For which N cut t is the random variable representing the number of outages between the start of the coming storm and the time t of said overhead HV feeders; - at least one display and/or a backup of the data of the average number of outages E N cut t depending on potentially impacted feeders and the outage probability p d t for each feeder; <EOS>