A method for growing a crop plant, the method comprising: (a) receiving weather data for an uncultivated land plot that has not been cultivated with grown and harvested crop plants within the last 5 years, the weather data comprising at least one of historical weather data and projected weather data for the plot; (b) receiving soil data for the land plot; (c) receiving crop management parameters for the land plot, the crop management parameters comprising a crop plant for the land plot and at least one other different crop management parameter for the land plot; (d) computing (i) a predicted yield for the crop plant and (ii) a predicted final field state property on the land plot using a crop model, the weather data, the soil data, and the crop management parameters for the land plot, wherein the predicted yield and the predicted final field state property based on the crop plant comprise computed distributions based on the different crop management parameters for the land plot, wherein the predicted final field state property is selected from the group consisting of nutrient leaching, greenhouse gas emission, soil organic content loss, soil erosion, and combinations thereof; (e) preparing the land plot for cultivation with the crop plant according to the predicted yield and the predicted final field state property after a risk determination that the land plot would be agriculturally productive and also would minimize the final field state property if the crop plant were planted, grown, and harvested according to crop management parameters selected from the computed distributions, wherein preparing the land plot for cultivation with the crop plant comprises at least one of removing existing vegetation from the land plot and reshaping the land plot surface; and (f) planting, growing, and harvesting the crop plant on the land plot according to the crop management parameters, wherein the crop management parameters for planting, growing, and harvesting the crop plant are selected to (i) optimize one or more of crop plant yield, crop plant quality, and crop plant marginal net return, and (ii) minimize one or more of nutrient leaching, greenhouse gas emission, soil organic content loss, and soil erosion. (a) receiving weather data for an uncultivated land plot that has not been cultivated with grown and harvested crop plants within the last 5 years, the weather data comprising at least one of historical weather data and projected weather data for the plot; (b) receiving soil data for the land plot; (c) receiving crop management parameters for the land plot, the crop management parameters comprising a crop plant for the land plot and at least one other different crop management parameter for the land plot; (d) computing (i) a predicted yield for the crop plant and (ii) a predicted final field state property on the land plot using a crop model, the weather data, the soil data, and the crop management parameters for the land plot, wherein the predicted yield and the predicted final field state property based on the crop plant comprise computed distributions based on the different crop management parameters for the land plot, wherein the predicted final field state property is selected from the group consisting of nutrient leaching, greenhouse gas emission, soil organic content loss, soil erosion, and combinations thereof; (e) preparing the land plot for cultivation with the crop plant according to the predicted yield and the predicted final field state property after a risk determination that the land plot would be agriculturally productive and also would minimize the final field state property if the crop plant were planted, grown, and harvested according to crop management parameters selected from the computed distributions, wherein preparing the land plot for cultivation with the crop plant comprises at least one of removing existing vegetation from the land plot and reshaping the land plot surface; and (f) planting, growing, and harvesting the crop plant on the land plot according to the crop management parameters, wherein the crop management parameters for planting, growing, and harvesting the crop plant are selected to (i) optimize one or more of crop plant yield, crop plant quality, and crop plant marginal net return, and (ii) minimize one or more of nutrient leaching, greenhouse gas emission, soil organic content loss, and soil erosion.