A method for predicting and/or controlling shipping traffic in the region of a sea area, in particular an international sea area, of limited cross-section, wherein a) a fixed measurement zone is or will be defined, which comprises a part of the sea area of limited cross-section, b) AIS ("Automatic Identification System") data of vessels that cross the measurement zone are captured over a first measurement time span, in particular the current position, speed and direction of travel thereof, and an empirical model of the shipping traffic in the measurement zone is created from the captured AIS data, c) wherein, after the empirical model has been created, a traffic prediction operation and/or traffic control operation is/are performed for currently occurring shipping traffic, in which c1) a temporal development of at least one input parameter of the shipping traffic in the measurement zone is first calculated, in particular extrapolated, on the basis of AIS data of vessels in the measurement zone and/or of vessels, approaching the measurement zone, and c2) then, from the empirical model, to which the at least one calculated input parameter of the shipping traffic is supplied as an input variable, at least one output parameter of the shipping traffic in the measurement zone is extracted as a model response, wherein the at least one input parameter is a forecast maritime traffic density D and/or a forecast maritime traffic volume Q and the at least one output parameter is a direction-based average speed of the shipping traffic in the measurement zone, wherein a functional dependency of the average speed of the maritime traffic density D and/or maritime traffic volume Q, which is calculated from the AIS data captured in the first measurement time span, forms the basis of the empirical model. a) a fixed measurement zone is or will be defined, which comprises a part of the sea area of limited cross-section, b) AIS ("Automatic Identification System") data of vessels that cross the measurement zone are captured over a first measurement time span, in particular the current position, speed and direction of travel thereof, and an empirical model of the shipping traffic in the measurement zone is created from the captured AIS data, c) wherein, after the empirical model has been created, a traffic prediction operation and/or traffic control operation is/are performed for currently occurring shipping traffic, in which c1) a temporal development of at least one input parameter of the shipping traffic in the measurement zone is first calculated, in particular extrapolated, on the basis of AIS data of vessels in the measurement zone and/or of vessels, approaching the measurement zone, and c2) then, from the empirical model, to which the at least one calculated input parameter of the shipping traffic is supplied as an input variable, at least one output parameter of the shipping traffic in the measurement zone is extracted as a model response, c1) a temporal development of at least one input parameter of the shipping traffic in the measurement zone is first calculated, in particular extrapolated, on the basis of AIS data of vessels in the measurement zone and/or of vessels, approaching the measurement zone, and c2) then, from the empirical model, to which the at least one calculated input parameter of the shipping traffic is supplied as an input variable, at least one output parameter of the shipping traffic in the measurement zone is extracted as a model response,