A control device for a hybrid vehicle, the hybrid vehicle including an internal combustion engine, an electric motor (12, 14; 14B), and a battery connected to the electric motor (12, 14; 14B), the hybrid vehicle being configured to charge the battery with electric power generated with output of the internal combustion engine, the hybrid vehicle being configured to drive the electric motor (12, 14; 14B) with the electric power supplied from the battery, the hybrid vehicle being configured to charge the battery with an external power source, the control device comprising an electronic control unit, the electronic control unit being configured to: i) set a target charging rate, the target charging rate being a target value of a state of charge of the battery when the hybrid vehicle arrives at a prescribed charging base; and ii) when the hybrid vehicle is traveling outside the charging base, control output of the internal combustion engine and the electric motor (12, 14; 14B) such that the state of charge at a time when the hybrid vehicle arrives at the charging base is the target charging rate; iii) estimate a charging probability and set the target charging rate lower when the estimated charging probability is high than when the estimated charging probability is low, the charging probability being a probability that the battery is charged with an external power source in the charging base when the hybrid vehicle arrives at the charging base; the charging probability is estimated based on a charging history which is a history of charging the battery with the external power source when the hybrid vehicle stopped at the charging base in the past; characterized in that the charging history includes an external charging frequency that is a frequency of charging the battery with the external power source when the hybrid vehicle stopped at the charging base in the past when a state of charge at a time when the hybrid vehicle arrives at the charging base is equal to or less than a predetermined value; and in that the electronic control unit is configured to set the target charging rate lower when the external charging frequency is high than when the external charging frequency is low. i) set a target charging rate, the target charging rate being a target value of a state of charge of the battery when the hybrid vehicle arrives at a prescribed charging base; and ii) when the hybrid vehicle is traveling outside the charging base, control output of the internal combustion engine and the electric motor (12, 14; 14B) such that the state of charge at a time when the hybrid vehicle arrives at the charging base is the target charging rate; iii) estimate a charging probability and set the target charging rate lower when the estimated charging probability is high than when the estimated charging probability is low, the charging probability being a probability that the battery is charged with an external power source in the charging base when the hybrid vehicle arrives at the charging base; the charging probability is estimated based on a charging history which is a history of charging the battery with the external power source when the hybrid vehicle stopped at the charging base in the past; characterized in that the charging history includes an external charging frequency that is a frequency of charging the battery with the external power source when the hybrid vehicle stopped at the charging base in the past when a state of charge at a time when the hybrid vehicle arrives at the charging base is equal to or less than a predetermined value; and in that the electronic control unit is configured to set the target charging rate lower when the external charging frequency is high than when the external charging frequency is low.