A method of outputting a graphical user interface on a display of a computing device comprising: while operating in a full operational state during which the display device is configured to present graphical content, outputting, by the computing device, for display at the display device, a graphical user interface associated with a first application from a plurality of applications; after determining an initial context of the computing device, transitioning, by the computing device, from operating in the full operational state to operating in a limited operational state during which the display device is configured to refrain from presenting graphical content; while operating in the limited operational state: refraining from outputting, by the computing device, the graphical user interface associated with the first application; receiving, by the computing device, a notification associated with a second application from the plurality of applications; and determining, by the computing device, a change in context from the initial context to a subsequent context of the computing device; determining, by the computing device and based at least in part on: the change in context, the notification, and whether the amount of time since the notification was received satisfies a time threshold, a degree of likelihood that a user associated with the computing device would access, after the computing device has transitioned from operating in the limited operational state back to operating in the full operational state and prior to the user accessing the first application, the second application; modifying the degree of likelihood by increasing the degree of likelihood that the user associated with the computing device would access the second application when the distance travelled or the time elapsed between the determination of the initial and the subsequent context does not exceed a change threshold; and after transitioning from operating in the limited operational state back to operating in the full operational state, and responsive to determining that the degree of likelihood satisfies a likelihood threshold, outputting, by the computing device, for display at the display device, a graphical user interface associated with the second application. while operating in a full operational state during which the display device is configured to present graphical content, outputting, by the computing device, for display at the display device, a graphical user interface associated with a first application from a plurality of applications; after determining an initial context of the computing device, transitioning, by the computing device, from operating in the full operational state to operating in a limited operational state during which the display device is configured to refrain from presenting graphical content; while operating in the limited operational state: refraining from outputting, by the computing device, the graphical user interface associated with the first application; receiving, by the computing device, a notification associated with a second application from the plurality of applications; and determining, by the computing device, a change in context from the initial context to a subsequent context of the computing device; refraining from outputting, by the computing device, the graphical user interface associated with the first application; receiving, by the computing device, a notification associated with a second application from the plurality of applications; and determining, by the computing device, a change in context from the initial context to a subsequent context of the computing device; determining, by the computing device and based at least in part on: the change in context, the notification, and whether the amount of time since the notification was received satisfies a time threshold, a degree of likelihood that a user associated with the computing device would access, after the computing device has transitioned from operating in the limited operational state back to operating in the full operational state and prior to the user accessing the first application, the second application; modifying the degree of likelihood by increasing the degree of likelihood that the user associated with the computing device would access the second application when the distance travelled or the time elapsed between the determination of the initial and the subsequent context does not exceed a change threshold; and after transitioning from operating in the limited operational state back to operating in the full operational state, and responsive to determining that the degree of likelihood satisfies a likelihood threshold, outputting, by the computing device, for display at the display device, a graphical user interface associated with the second application.