A method for determining uncertainty in a predicted flight path for an aerial vehicle wherein the predicted flight path is comprised of a temporal component and a spatial component, the method comprising: receiving, by one or more computing devices, a first data set comprising one or more parameters indicative of actual performance of the aerial vehicle from one or more sensors of the aerial vehicle; comparing, by the one or more computing devices, the one or more received parameters of the first data set to one or more corresponding predicted parameters of a performance model of the aerial vehicle; determining, by the one or more computing devices, uncertainty in the performance model of the aerial vehicle based on a variance between the one or more received parameters of the first data set and the one or more corresponding predicted parameters of the performance model; receiving, by the one or more computing devices, a second data set comprising one or more parameters indicative of actual weather conditions for an environment in which the aerial vehicle is operating from the one or more sensors of the aerial vehicle; comparing, by the one or more computing devices, the one or more received parameters of the second data set to one or more corresponding predicted parameters of a weather model of the aerial vehicle; determining, by the one or more computing devices, uncertainty in the weather model indicative of weather conditions along the predicted flight path based on a variance between the one or more received parameters of the second data set and the one or more corresponding predicted parameters of the weather model; determining, by the one or more computing devices, uncertainty in the predicted flight path based on the uncertainty in the performance model and the uncertainty in the weather model, comprising determining a confidence score that quantifies the uncertainty in the predicted flight path, wherein the confidence score is indicative of a likelihood of the aerial vehicle flying the predicted flight path; and generating, by the one or more computing devices, a notification indicating the uncertainty in the predicted flight path. receiving, by one or more computing devices, a first data set comprising one or more parameters indicative of actual performance of the aerial vehicle from one or more sensors of the aerial vehicle; comparing, by the one or more computing devices, the one or more received parameters of the first data set to one or more corresponding predicted parameters of a performance model of the aerial vehicle; determining, by the one or more computing devices, uncertainty in the performance model of the aerial vehicle based on a variance between the one or more received parameters of the first data set and the one or more corresponding predicted parameters of the performance model; receiving, by the one or more computing devices, a second data set comprising one or more parameters indicative of actual weather conditions for an environment in which the aerial vehicle is operating from the one or more sensors of the aerial vehicle; comparing, by the one or more computing devices, the one or more received parameters of the second data set to one or more corresponding predicted parameters of a weather model of the aerial vehicle; determining, by the one or more computing devices, uncertainty in the weather model indicative of weather conditions along the predicted flight path based on a variance between the one or more received parameters of the second data set and the one or more corresponding predicted parameters of the weather model; determining, by the one or more computing devices, uncertainty in the predicted flight path based on the uncertainty in the performance model and the uncertainty in the weather model, comprising determining a confidence score that quantifies the uncertainty in the predicted flight path, wherein the confidence score is indicative of a likelihood of the aerial vehicle flying the predicted flight path; and generating, by the one or more computing devices, a notification indicating the uncertainty in the predicted flight path.