A system for detecting refrigerant leak in a refrigeration system comprising: a refrigerant level sensor configured to sense a level of refrigerant in the refrigeration system and to generate refrigerant level data based on the level of refrigerant; a plurality of system sensors (114, 118, 120) configured to sense conditions corresponding to the refrigeration system and to generate sensed system data based on the sensed conditions, the sensed system data including at least one of ambient temperature data, condenser temperature data, and discharge pressure data; said system being characterized by: a model database configured to store a plurality of models defining expected refrigerant levels based on previously recorded system data, wherein each of the models has an upper control limit and a lower control limit associated therewith; a model selecting module configured to select a model from the model database based on the system data and the previously recorded system data; a refrigerant level prediction module configured to generate an expected refrigerant level based on the sensed system data and the selected model; and a notification module configured to generate a notification when a difference between the expected refrigerant level and the refrigerant level reading is one of greater than the upper control limit and less than the lower control limit of the selected model. a refrigerant level sensor configured to sense a level of refrigerant in the refrigeration system and to generate refrigerant level data based on the level of refrigerant; a plurality of system sensors (114, 118, 120) configured to sense conditions corresponding to the refrigeration system and to generate sensed system data based on the sensed conditions, the sensed system data including at least one of ambient temperature data, condenser temperature data, and discharge pressure data; said system being characterized by: a model database configured to store a plurality of models defining expected refrigerant levels based on previously recorded system data, wherein each of the models has an upper control limit and a lower control limit associated therewith; a model selecting module configured to select a model from the model database based on the system data and the previously recorded system data; a refrigerant level prediction module configured to generate an expected refrigerant level based on the sensed system data and the selected model; and a notification module configured to generate a notification when a difference between the expected refrigerant level and the refrigerant level reading is one of greater than the upper control limit and less than the lower control limit of the selected model. a model database configured to store a plurality of models defining expected refrigerant levels based on previously recorded system data, wherein each of the models has an upper control limit and a lower control limit associated therewith; a model selecting module configured to select a model from the model database based on the system data and the previously recorded system data; a refrigerant level prediction module configured to generate an expected refrigerant level based on the sensed system data and the selected model; and a notification module configured to generate a notification when a difference between the expected refrigerant level and the refrigerant level reading is one of greater than the upper control limit and less than the lower control limit of the selected model.