An evaluation method for evaluating an ultraviolet protection effect of a measurement sample applied on a substrate, the evaluation method comprising: a first step of measuring, at predetermined wavelength intervals, a change over time of a spectral transmission spectrum of the measurement sample within a predetermined wavelength range of a waveform simulating a spectral waveform of actual sunlight by irradiating light from a light source that has a wavelength range of 200-1000 nm and includes ultraviolet light, visible light, and infrared light under a predetermined irradiation condition and arranging a filter configured to filter the light irradiation spectrum of the light from said light source, to simulate the spectral waveform of actual sunlight; a second step of establishing, based on the change over time of the spectral transmission spectrum, a correlation between a light irradiation time and an erythema effective dose per unit time, which is obtained by dividing an erythema effective dose of the measurement sample by an erythema effective dose per 1 MED (Minimal Erythema Dose); and a third step of calculating an in vitro rSPF (real-life Sun Protection Factor) predictive value for the measurement sample on the basis of a time until a cumulative erythema effective dose, which is obtained through time integration based on the correlation, reaches 1 MED, the in vitro rSPF predictive value indicating a protection effect against ultraviolet light included in light from a solar light source irradiated under a real-life usage condition and a real-life usage environment for the measurement sample; wherein the real-life usage condition includes arranging an application dose range of the measurement sample applied on the substrate to 0.01-10.0 mg/cm2 and arranging a calculated average roughness (Sa value) range of the substrate to be 0.01-400 μm; and the real-life usage environment includes arranging an intensity range of the light source that irradiates the light to 0.001-20.0 MED/min. a first step of measuring, at predetermined wavelength intervals, a change over time of a spectral transmission spectrum of the measurement sample within a predetermined wavelength range of a waveform simulating a spectral waveform of actual sunlight by irradiating light from a light source that has a wavelength range of 200-1000 nm and includes ultraviolet light, visible light, and infrared light under a predetermined irradiation condition and arranging a filter configured to filter the light irradiation spectrum of the light from said light source, to simulate the spectral waveform of actual sunlight; a second step of establishing, based on the change over time of the spectral transmission spectrum, a correlation between a light irradiation time and an erythema effective dose per unit time, which is obtained by dividing an erythema effective dose of the measurement sample by an erythema effective dose per 1 MED (Minimal Erythema Dose); and a third step of calculating an in vitro rSPF (real-life Sun Protection Factor) predictive value for the measurement sample on the basis of a time until a cumulative erythema effective dose, which is obtained through time integration based on the correlation, reaches 1 MED, the in vitro rSPF predictive value indicating a protection effect against ultraviolet light included in light from a solar light source irradiated under a real-life usage condition and a real-life usage environment for the measurement sample; wherein the real-life usage condition includes arranging an application dose range of the measurement sample applied on the substrate to 0.01-10.0 mg/cm2 and arranging a calculated average roughness (Sa value) range of the substrate to be 0.01-400 μm; and the real-life usage environment includes arranging an intensity range of the light source that irradiates the light to 0.001-20.0 MED/min.