A method of outputting a graphical user interface by a computing device, the computing device comprising a display device and one or more sensors, comprising: outputting, by the computing device in a full operational state, a graphical user interface associated with a first application from a plurality of applications; after determining, based on a first sensor information detected by the one or more sensors, an initial context of the computing device, transitioning the computing device from operating in the full operational state to operating in a limited operational state during which the display device refrains from presenting graphical content; while operating in the limited operational state, the computing device is configured to: refrain from outputting the graphical user interface associated with the first application; receive a notification associated with a second application from the plurality of applications; and determine, based on a second sensor information detected by the one or more sensors, a change in context from the initial context to a subsequent context of the computing device; determining, by the computing device and based at least in part on: the change in context, the notification, and whether an amount of time since the notification was received satisfies a time threshold, a degree of likelihood that a user associated with the computing device would access the second application, when the computing device transitions from operating in the limited operational state back to operating in the full operational state and prior to the user accessing the first application; modifying the degree of likelihood by increasing the degree of likelihood that the user associated with the computing device would access the second application when the change in context does not exceed a change threshold and by decreasing the degree of likelihood that the user associated with the computing device would access the second application when the change in context exceeds the change threshold; and after transitioning from operating in the limited operational state back to operating in the full operational state, and responsive to determining that the degree of likelihood satisfies a likelihood threshold, outputting, by the computing device, for display at the display device, a graphical user interface associated with the second application. outputting, by the computing device in a full operational state, a graphical user interface associated with a first application from a plurality of applications; after determining, based on a first sensor information detected by the one or more sensors, an initial context of the computing device, transitioning the computing device from operating in the full operational state to operating in a limited operational state during which the display device refrains from presenting graphical content; while operating in the limited operational state, the computing device is configured to: refrain from outputting the graphical user interface associated with the first application; receive a notification associated with a second application from the plurality of applications; and determine, based on a second sensor information detected by the one or more sensors, a change in context from the initial context to a subsequent context of the computing device; refrain from outputting the graphical user interface associated with the first application; receive a notification associated with a second application from the plurality of applications; and determine, based on a second sensor information detected by the one or more sensors, a change in context from the initial context to a subsequent context of the computing device; determining, by the computing device and based at least in part on: the change in context, the notification, and whether an amount of time since the notification was received satisfies a time threshold, a degree of likelihood that a user associated with the computing device would access the second application, when the computing device transitions from operating in the limited operational state back to operating in the full operational state and prior to the user accessing the first application; modifying the degree of likelihood by increasing the degree of likelihood that the user associated with the computing device would access the second application when the change in context does not exceed a change threshold and by decreasing the degree of likelihood that the user associated with the computing device would access the second application when the change in context exceeds the change threshold; and after transitioning from operating in the limited operational state back to operating in the full operational state, and responsive to determining that the degree of likelihood satisfies a likelihood threshold, outputting, by the computing device, for display at the display device, a graphical user interface associated with the second application.