A supervisory controller (106, 206) for a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning HVAC system, comprising: a data management module configured to receive a zone demand signal from a local controller (108-1, 108-2,..., 108-N) of a zone (104-1, 104-2,..., 104-N) of the HVAC system and receive a number of additional signals from a number of sensors, wherein the zone demand signal corresponds to an output of the local controller (108-1, 108-2,..., 108-N) of the zone (104-1, 104-2,..., 104-N); a parameter identification module configured to determine, based on the zone demand signal, whether the zone (104-1, 104-2,..., 104-N) is in a comfort state, by: loading a best model structure of a number of models; and identifying parameters of the best model structure based on data received from the data management module; wherein the zone is in the comfort state if the zone demand signal is below a pre-defined level; an optimization module configured to increase an amount of energy supplied to the zone (104-1, 104-2,..., 104-N) if the zone (104-1, 104-2,..., 104-N) is not in the comfort state; and a model structure tuning module configured to, after the amount of energy supplied to the zone (104-1, 104-2,..., 104-N) is increased: evaluate a model used to determine the amount of energy supplied to the zone (104-1, 104-2,..., 104-N); and tune the model based on a change in the HVAC system after the amount of energy supplied to the zone (104-1, 104-2,..., 104-N) is increased, the change in the HVAC system comprising a heating plant of the HVAC system becoming disabled. a data management module configured to receive a zone demand signal from a local controller (108-1, 108-2,..., 108-N) of a zone (104-1, 104-2,..., 104-N) of the HVAC system and receive a number of additional signals from a number of sensors, wherein the zone demand signal corresponds to an output of the local controller (108-1, 108-2,..., 108-N) of the zone (104-1, 104-2,..., 104-N); a parameter identification module configured to determine, based on the zone demand signal, whether the zone (104-1, 104-2,..., 104-N) is in a comfort state, by: loading a best model structure of a number of models; and identifying parameters of the best model structure based on data received from the data management module; wherein the zone is in the comfort state if the zone demand signal is below a pre-defined level; loading a best model structure of a number of models; and identifying parameters of the best model structure based on data received from the data management module; wherein the zone is in the comfort state if the zone demand signal is below a pre-defined level; an optimization module configured to increase an amount of energy supplied to the zone (104-1, 104-2,..., 104-N) if the zone (104-1, 104-2,..., 104-N) is not in the comfort state; and a model structure tuning module configured to, after the amount of energy supplied to the zone (104-1, 104-2,..., 104-N) is increased: evaluate a model used to determine the amount of energy supplied to the zone (104-1, 104-2,..., 104-N); and tune the model based on a change in the HVAC system after the amount of energy supplied to the zone (104-1, 104-2,..., 104-N) is increased, the change in the HVAC system comprising a heating plant of the HVAC system becoming disabled. evaluate a model used to determine the amount of energy supplied to the zone (104-1, 104-2,..., 104-N); and tune the model based on a change in the HVAC system after the amount of energy supplied to the zone (104-1, 104-2,..., 104-N) is increased, the change in the HVAC system comprising a heating plant of the HVAC system becoming disabled.