A computer-implemented method of controlling operation of a production system and estimating failure probabilities of resources in the production system including a producer component that receives production jobs from a customer and a plant having a plurality of resources, the method comprising: executing plans in the production system, wherein the resources are actuated or operated according to one or more of the plans so as to produce one or more products; maintaining a set of four count values for each of the plurality of resources in the production system, the four count values for each individual resource m including: a first count value m 11 indicating a number of the plans executed in the production system where the resource m was used and the plans failed, a second count value m 10 indicating a number of the plans executed in the production system where the resource m was used and the plans succeeded, a third count value m 01 indicating a number of the plans executed in the production system where the resource m was not used and the plans failed, and a fourth count value m 00 indicating a number of the plans executed in the production system where the resource m was not used and the plans succeeded; for each plan executed in the production system, incrementing a selected one of the count values for each of the resources based on a list of resources used in the plan and the success or failure of the plan; for each resource, estimating a current fault probability value for single or multiple, persistent or intermittent faults based on at least one of the corresponding set of count values; storing the current fault probability values of the resources; receiving production jobs from a customer; constructing the plans according to the production jobs based on the stored current fault probability values of the resources; executing the constructed plans to produce the products according to the production jobs. executing plans in the production system, wherein the resources are actuated or operated according to one or more of the plans so as to produce one or more products; maintaining a set of four count values for each of the plurality of resources in the production system, the four count values for each individual resource m including: a first count value m 11 indicating a number of the plans executed in the production system where the resource m was used and the plans failed, a second count value m 10 indicating a number of the plans executed in the production system where the resource m was used and the plans succeeded, a third count value m 01 indicating a number of the plans executed in the production system where the resource m was not used and the plans failed, and a fourth count value m 00 indicating a number of the plans executed in the production system where the resource m was not used and the plans succeeded; a first count value m 11 indicating a number of the plans executed in the production system where the resource m was used and the plans failed, a second count value m 10 indicating a number of the plans executed in the production system where the resource m was used and the plans succeeded, a third count value m 01 indicating a number of the plans executed in the production system where the resource m was not used and the plans failed, and a fourth count value m 00 indicating a number of the plans executed in the production system where the resource m was not used and the plans succeeded; for each plan executed in the production system, incrementing a selected one of the count values for each of the resources based on a list of resources used in the plan and the success or failure of the plan; for each resource, estimating a current fault probability value for single or multiple, persistent or intermittent faults based on at least one of the corresponding set of count values; storing the current fault probability values of the resources; receiving production jobs from a customer; constructing the plans according to the production jobs based on the stored current fault probability values of the resources; executing the constructed plans to produce the products according to the production jobs.