System for estimating the most probable path followed by a vehicle on a road network including road sections (R, R') originating from respective intersection or branching nodes (N; D), to which a travel probability is assigned, comprising: - means for acquiring a data element for locating the vehicle on the road network; - means (DB1, DB2) for storing a map of the territory through which the road network passes, comprising data representative of the corresponding designated use of a plurality of areas of territory associated with the sections (R, R') of the road network; and - processing means arranged to assign improved travelling probabilities to the road sections (R; R') of the road network originating from the respective road intersections or branching nodes (N; D), as a function of the designated use of the area of territory associated with said road sections (R; R'), characterised in that the processing means are arranged to calculate the most probable path for the vehicle according to the improved travelling probabilities assigned to said road sections (R; R'), said most probable path comprising a plurality of consecutive road sections originating from a road intersection or branching node (N; D) approached by the vehicle for which the joint travel probability is highest, and in that said processing means are arranged to assign an improved travel probability for a road section (R; R') which is variable in time as a function of the state of operation of at least one site (C; T) in an area of territory associated therewith, said probability being assigned depending on the time at which the vehicle approaches said section (R; R'). - means for acquiring a data element for locating the vehicle on the road network; - means (DB1, DB2) for storing a map of the territory through which the road network passes, comprising data representative of the corresponding designated use of a plurality of areas of territory associated with the sections (R, R') of the road network; and - processing means arranged to assign improved travelling probabilities to the road sections (R; R') of the road network originating from the respective road intersections or branching nodes (N; D), as a function of the designated use of the area of territory associated with said road sections (R; R'), characterised in that the processing means are arranged to calculate the most probable path for the vehicle according to the improved travelling probabilities assigned to said road sections (R; R'), said most probable path comprising a plurality of consecutive road sections originating from a road intersection or branching node (N; D) approached by the vehicle for which the joint travel probability is highest, and in that said processing means are arranged to assign an improved travel probability for a road section (R; R') which is variable in time as a function of the state of operation of at least one site (C; T) in an area of territory associated therewith, said probability being assigned depending on the time at which the vehicle approaches said section (R; R'). characterised in that the processing means are arranged to calculate the most probable path for the vehicle according to the improved travelling probabilities assigned to said road sections (R; R'), said most probable path comprising a plurality of consecutive road sections originating from a road intersection or branching node (N; D) approached by the vehicle for which the joint travel probability is highest, and in that said processing means are arranged to assign an improved travel probability for a road section (R; R') which is variable in time as a function of the state of operation of at least one site (C; T) in an area of territory associated therewith, said probability being assigned depending on the time at which the vehicle approaches said section (R; R').