A destination estimating apparatus, comprising: a history storing unit that is configured to store a history of a plurality of locations that have been specified as destinations in the past, wherein date information is included in the history of a location that has been specified as a destination in the past that is stored in the history storing unit; a destination estimating unit that, taking a plurality of locations stored in the history storing unit as a plurality of destination candidates, is configured to estimate a destination from among the plurality of destination candidates; an observed variable acquiring unit that is configured to acquire an observed variable; and a model storing unit that is configured to store a probability model for determining a probability for each of the plurality of destination candidates to be an actual destination with respect to the observed variable; wherein, based on the probability model that is stored in the model storing unit, the destination estimating unit is configured to determine a probability of each of the plurality of destination candidates to be an actual destination with respect to the observed variable that is acquired by the observed variable acquiring unit, and to estimate a destination candidate having a high probability to be the destination; and characterized in that: the destination estimating apparatus further comprises a candidate excluding unit configured to exclude a destination candidate based on the history that is stored in the history storing unit, wherein the candidate excluding unit is configured to determine a certainty factor, wherein the certainty factor is determined based on a proportion of times that the relevant destination candidate has been specified as a destination with respect to a fixed number of most recent actions or a proportion of times that the relevant destination candidate has been specified as a destination with respect to actions in a most recent fixed period of time, and on a number of actions since a day that the relevant destination candidate has been last specified as a destination or a time period since a day that the relevant destination candidate has been last specified as a destination, wherein the candidate excluding unit is configured to exclude a destination candidate for which, based on the date information, it is determined that the certainty factor is lower than a predetermined threshold value from the destination candidates for which a probability is determined by the destination estimating unit, and wherein the destination estimating unit is configured to estimate a destination candidate for which a probability is high among the destination candidates that remain after the destination candidate is excluded by the candidate excluding unit. a history storing unit that is configured to store a history of a plurality of locations that have been specified as destinations in the past, wherein date information is included in the history of a location that has been specified as a destination in the past that is stored in the history storing unit; a destination estimating unit that, taking a plurality of locations stored in the history storing unit as a plurality of destination candidates, is configured to estimate a destination from among the plurality of destination candidates; an observed variable acquiring unit that is configured to acquire an observed variable; and a model storing unit that is configured to store a probability model for determining a probability for each of the plurality of destination candidates to be an actual destination with respect to the observed variable; wherein, based on the probability model that is stored in the model storing unit, the destination estimating unit is configured to determine a probability of each of the plurality of destination candidates to be an actual destination with respect to the observed variable that is acquired by the observed variable acquiring unit, and to estimate a destination candidate having a high probability to be the destination; and characterized in that: the destination estimating apparatus further comprises a candidate excluding unit configured to exclude a destination candidate based on the history that is stored in the history storing unit, wherein the candidate excluding unit is configured to determine a certainty factor, wherein the certainty factor is determined based on a proportion of times that the relevant destination candidate has been specified as a destination with respect to a fixed number of most recent actions or a proportion of times that the relevant destination candidate has been specified as a destination with respect to actions in a most recent fixed period of time, and on a number of actions since a day that the relevant destination candidate has been last specified as a destination or a time period since a day that the relevant destination candidate has been last specified as a destination,