A method for diagnosing a renal allograft recipient's risk for developing fibrosis of the allograft and allograft loss, the method comprising: (a) determining the expression levels of four microRNAs in a blood sample obtained from the recipient, wherein the microRNAs are hsa-mir-128, hsa-mir-29b-3p, hsa-mir-302b-3p, and hsa-mir-192-5p; (b) comparing the expression levels of the four microRNAs with a control level for each microRNA; and (c) diagnosing the recipient as being at high or low risk for developing fibrosis of the allograft and allograft loss (i) wherein the recipient is diagnosed as being at high risk if the expression levels of hsa-miR-128 and hsa-miR-302b-3p are increased relative to a control level for each microRNA, and the expression levels of hsa-miR-29b-3p and hsa-miR-192-5p are decreased relative to the control level for each microRNA based on the probability score cutoff determined from a training set; or (ii) wherein the recipient is diagnosed as being at low risk if the expression levels of hsa-miR-128 and hsa-miR-302b-3p are decreased relative to the control level for each microRNA, and the expression levels of hsa-miR-29b-3p and hsa-miR-192-5p are increased relative to the control level for each microRNA based on the probability score cutoff determined from the training set. (a) determining the expression levels of four microRNAs in a blood sample obtained from the recipient, wherein the microRNAs are hsa-mir-128, hsa-mir-29b-3p, hsa-mir-302b-3p, and hsa-mir-192-5p; (b) comparing the expression levels of the four microRNAs with a control level for each microRNA; and (c) diagnosing the recipient as being at high or low risk for developing fibrosis of the allograft and allograft loss (i) wherein the recipient is diagnosed as being at high risk if the expression levels of hsa-miR-128 and hsa-miR-302b-3p are increased relative to a control level for each microRNA, and the expression levels of hsa-miR-29b-3p and hsa-miR-192-5p are decreased relative to the control level for each microRNA based on the probability score cutoff determined from a training set; or (ii) wherein the recipient is diagnosed as being at low risk if the expression levels of hsa-miR-128 and hsa-miR-302b-3p are decreased relative to the control level for each microRNA, and the expression levels of hsa-miR-29b-3p and hsa-miR-192-5p are increased relative to the control level for each microRNA based on the probability score cutoff determined from the training set. (i) wherein the recipient is diagnosed as being at high risk if the expression levels of hsa-miR-128 and hsa-miR-302b-3p are increased relative to a control level for each microRNA, and the expression levels of hsa-miR-29b-3p and hsa-miR-192-5p are decreased relative to the control level for each microRNA based on the probability score cutoff determined from a training set; or (ii) wherein the recipient is diagnosed as being at low risk if the expression levels of hsa-miR-128 and hsa-miR-302b-3p are decreased relative to the control level for each microRNA, and the expression levels of hsa-miR-29b-3p and hsa-miR-192-5p are increased relative to the control level for each microRNA based on the probability score cutoff determined from the training set.