A method of extracting hydrocarbons from a subsurface region, comprising: identifying modeling dimensions in which known parameters and uncertainties relevant to a hydrocarbon management system are represented; generating a ground-truth model by estimating a ground-truth level of detail for each modeling dimension; generating a sufficiently-fine model by estimating a sufficiently-fine level of detail for each modeling dimension; estimating a parameter space that expresses outcomes of model instances in the sufficiently-fine model; running ground-truth model instances to generate results of the ground-truth model, the ground-truth model instances being selected to represent desired regions of the parameter space; generating a first intermediate model by identifying a first intermediate level of detail for each modeling dimension between the ground-truth level of detail and the sufficiently fine level of detail; running first intermediate model instances to generate results of the first intermediate model, the first intermediate model instances being selected to represent desired regions of the parameter space; determining whether the first intermediate model is calibrated to the ground-truth model by comparing the results of the first intermediate model with the results of the ground-truth model; when the first intermediate model is not calibrated to the ground-truth model, generating a second intermediate model by identifying a second intermediate level of detail generally between the ground-truth level of detail for each modeling dimension and the first intermediate level of detail for each modeling dimension, running second intermediate model instances to generate results of the second intermediate model, determining whether the second intermediate model is calibrated to the ground-truth model by comparing the results of the second intermediate model with the results of the ground-truth model; when one of the first and second intermediate models is calibrated to the ground-truth model, connecting the first or second intermediate models which is calibrated to the ground-truth model to the sufficiently-fine model; outputting one or more model instances of the sufficiently-fine model, the first intermediate model instances, and the second intermediate model instance; using the outputted model instances to predict at least one of a presence and a location of hydrocarbons in the subsurface region; and extracting hydrocarbons from the subsurface region. identifying modeling dimensions in which known parameters and uncertainties relevant to a hydrocarbon management system are represented; generating a ground-truth model by estimating a ground-truth level of detail for each modeling dimension; generating a sufficiently-fine model by estimating a sufficiently-fine level of detail for each modeling dimension; estimating a parameter space that expresses outcomes of model instances in the sufficiently-fine model; running ground-truth model instances to generate results of the ground-truth model, the ground-truth model instances being selected to represent desired regions of the parameter space; generating a first intermediate model by identifying a first intermediate level of detail for each modeling dimension between the ground-truth level of detail and the sufficiently fine level of detail; running first intermediate model instances to generate results of the first intermediate model, the first intermediate model instances being selected to represent desired regions of the parameter space; determining whether the first intermediate model is calibrated to the ground-truth model by comparing the results of the first intermediate model with the results of the ground-truth model; when the first intermediate model is not calibrated to the ground-truth model, generating a second intermediate model by identifying a second intermediate level of detail generally between the ground-truth level of detail for each modeling dimension and the first intermediate level of detail for each modeling dimension, running second intermediate model instances to generate results of the second intermediate model, determining whether the second intermediate model is calibrated to the ground-truth model by comparing the results of the second intermediate model with the results of the ground-truth model; when one of the first and second intermediate models is calibrated to the ground-truth model, connecting the first or second intermediate models which is calibrated to the ground-truth model to the sufficiently-fine model; outputting one or more model instances of the sufficiently-fine model, the first intermediate model instances, and the second intermediate model instance; using the outputted model instances to predict at least one of a presence and a location of hydrocarbons in the subsurface region; and extracting hydrocarbons from the subsurface region.