Slow times? Eco World set to hit RM3 billion target

Reported in The Star online, EcoWorld has announced that it is confident that it will meet its sales target of RM3 billion for its current financial year ending Oct 31 2015. It said that the achievement is because of its brand profile and township development. Its immediate plan included the launch of Eco Meadows in Seberang Perai (Penang) and Bukit Bintang City Centre (BBCC) in Kuala Lumpur. Read about BBCC here:
Bukit Bintang City Centre, Eco World, UDA and EPF
  To help it achieve the sales target, Eco World would continue its innovative campaigns to further raise EcoWorld brand profile and market its 10 ongoing projects.

As at 31 August 2015, EcoWorld has chalked up RM1.37 billion sales from the Klang Valley and RM964 million from Iskandar Malaysia. This meant it has already achieved RM2.37 billion in sales. Its chief executive officer Datuk Chang Khim Wah said that EcoWorld continue to focus on townships and green business parks which remain resilient in the current challenging market. The group’s ongoing projects include Eco Majestic, Eco Sky and Saujana Glenmarie in the Klang Valley and Eco Botanic, Eco Spring, Eco Summer and Eco Business Park 1 and Eco Tropics in Iskandar Malaysia.

I think during slower times, the more branded developers would grab even more sales from the smaller number of available buyers. This is because they (buyers) may be more choosy and wary. Thus, a better known brand name would give them more confidence too. Do note that no matter how well known a developer is, decide objectively based on our needs. If the unit is just too far and without proper access, I would think thrice. If the size is smaller than what I personally like, I would not buy no matter how famous the brand may be. Yes, I am willing to pay a premium for developers I like but not to the extent of reducing my personal requirements. Happy evaluating.

written on 18 Sept 2015

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EcoWorld International : Sold close to £850 million (RM4.9 billion)

Malaysia’s property market has slowed. Both transactions and value has dropped. Read here:
Lower transactions and property value in 2016
.
Developers who has no other markets may have little choice but to offer as much ‘special offers’ as possible to ride out the current slowdown. How long would it last? Well, some say 2016 is full of opportunities. Agree? Here:
Best time ever or worst time ever for property market 2016

There are a few Malaysian developers who have ventured overseas and found success. One of the most established one would be EcoWorld. One latest update as below.

Reported in many local media just a few days ago was a Malaysian developer who is no longer confined to just Malaysia. It is now pretty big and successful in a property capital, London. EcoWorld-Ballymore has sold more 50 percent of Legacy Building 1, one of three blocks in the Embassy Gardens Phase 2. The phase 2 would has an estimated gross development value of £957mil (RM5,661 bil) and it consists of 709 luxury units and 163 affordable ones. Phase 1 which was developed by Ballymore has been fully sold out.  Total sales thus far for Embassy Gardens Phase 2 launched last September reached £120.8mil (RM714 million) as at Jan 31 2016. All are huge numbers, really. Oh yeah, its swimming pool is really quite ‘scary.’ Please refer to the image.

Embassy Gardens is located in Nine Elms. This is near to the
Battersea Power Station
 and Nine Elms is going to be London’s new diplomatic precinct as the United States and the Dutch embassies are relocating there. Construction work for Embassy Gardens Phase 2 began in January 2016 and is expected to complete in the first half of 2019.  Need some additional push? Eco World Ballymore Holding Co Ltd Chairman  Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin said, “We strongly believe in the United Kingdom market. We believe there is a lot of potential for us in London and for Malaysian investors in the UK market.”

I have just ONE (1) friend who bought a unit in Battersea. He is part of the top management fora financial institution in Singapore and I think he is looking at it as an investment. Let’s see if any of kopiandproperty.com’s readers would now tell me that they will be buying a unit in Embassy Gardens. 🙂 Happy thinking about London but do google a little about some recent London property news for a balanced decision making, okay.

written on 17 May 2016

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Eco World International, EPF, PNB and Guocoland on same ‘team.’

The stock market has been quite positive recently. Have you bought any shares yet? Another huge public offering one is coming up. This one is attracting huge attention. I always believe public listed companies which attract ‘famous’ investors would have advantage over those without. The reason is simple, confidence.  The news about Eco World International’s (EWI) IPO was reported in a few medias. Here’s one of them.
thesundaily
  It’s aiming for an Initial Public Offering (IPO)  and has secured the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) and Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) as its cornerstone investors. In total both of them would be subscribing over 30 percent of the total institutional offering or 6 percent of the enlarged paid-up capital postlisting.  It will also have Guocoland taking up a strategic stake of 27 percent in EWI as well.

Their joint global coordinators are CIMB Investment Bank Bhd (CIMB IB) and Maybank Investment Bank Bhd (Maybank IB). It will be offering the remaining institutional offerings to regional investors from Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong.  The issuance of EWI’s prospectus in respect of the IPO is expected in March and the listing of EWI is on track for early April. It’s president and CEO Datuk Teow Leong Seng also shared that it may even start paying dividend to shareholders when it begins recognising sales from its projects in the UK and Australia fromthe financial year ending Oct 31, 2019. On EWI’s current projects, it has sold RM6.3 billion out of a total gross development value of RM12.9 billion. This is for its four projects in London and Sydney. Current take up rate is 64 percent and it expects to hit 100 percent sales for all four projects within a year. It will continue to acquire land but will only sign on more projects after the listing. The focus for EWI remains in the UK and Australia for now as this is the segment it is still active in.

It’s important to read through what we intend to buy. Perhaps it’s time to start reading about the UK and Australia’s property market? Specifically, these are their three projects in London. They include
Embassy Gardens in Nine Elms, London City Island in Leamouth Peninsula and Wardian London in Canary Wharf.

Their sole project in Sydney is called West Village in Parramatta. Some latest news about the Sydney property market?
Australia property bubble? 27 experts said, It’s ok. 1 said, “it will burst.”

Alternatively, we can also choose to believe the reasons for EPF, PNB and Guocoland in taking up stakes in EWI. Last but not least, buy only if we are ready to hold for a long time. Property stocks tend to need more time because developments could not be completed overnight. Happy waiting and investing.

written on 21 Feb 2017

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Eco World International IPO delayed to September 2016

I love Malaysian developers who are able to exert their presence on the world stage. Of course, these developers should make sure they are already doing well domestically first. 🙂  Let’s look at one recent news about
Eco World  International (EWI)
. It will delay its initial public offering in Malaysia from mid 2016 to September or October. This delay is to facilitate the entry of an undisclosed strategic investor to co-anchor the IPO, its Chief Executive said. EWI’s IPO is expected be Malaysia’s largest IPO in more than a year as per its draft prospectus.

EWI develops properties in the United Kingdom and
Australia
 and due to the recent reference, the volatility has increased. Its vice chairman Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin offers this with regards to the referendum, “Now that the sterling has dropped, it means that the cost we have to inject into the U.K. to pay for the development of our three projects there will be lower.” EWI has already sold 581.1 million pound sterling (RM3 billion) in sales as of April 2016 from its three projects within London. He added further that a weaker sterling would in fact help Malaysian, Singaporean, China and HongKong customers as their cost of investment will now be lower.

Moving forward, EWI expects to handover
London City Island
 property to clients in 2018, Embassy Gardens in 2019 and Wardian London in 2020 (refer to image). As per the U.K. accounting rules, profits from development projects could only be booked upon handover. For those who may not be able to buy London properties and even those who are now wary whether or not to buy, we can still try to be exposed by buying listed companies with development projects there. On a more serious note, the current volatility has mostly been due to uncertainty. No negotiation has started yet for the U.K to exit EU and we have not yet see any real effects economically. Happy waiting.

written on 9 July 2016

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Eco World, its GDV and loved by CIMB, their shares still not for me.

Most important for any developer would be the size of its GDV. Low GDV, low profits potential and high GDV equals to higher profits. Clear? Well, Eco World’s current GDV is now RM63 Billion. This puts in behind only UEM Sunrise and SP Setia. This is indeed something amazing considering I have never heard of Eco World few years ago. The most recent one was securing the RM7 Billion joint venture to redevelop Pudu Jail land and it’s huge 470-acre Batu Kawan land in Penang. According to CIMB, Eco World Development Bhd’s results for the nine months ended June 30, 2014 were broadly in line with the net profit making up 46% of its full year forecast. New sales from the periods of October 2013 to July 2014 already amounted to RM2 Billion which already matches full year target.

CIMB Equities Research likes Eco World because of its performance thus far. I like Eco World because of the branding that it is building effectively thus far. Have you been to some of their launches recently? Their launches have always been receiving overwhelming responses. I feel in property development, it is important that the concept is attractive but more importantly, the company must have a very strong brand. This will make people more comfortable even if market has slowed down and more people are taking a wait-and-see attitude. Look at some of the developers who said, ‘limited units available’. For your information, if there are just limited units left, there is NO NEED for the developers to post in Facebook, post online, post in newspapers and try to tell everyone. Be reminded.

Coming back to numbers, Eco World’s current profits numbers are really considered small even when compared to middle sized developers. For nine months ended June 30, 2014, the profit before tax was just RM7.68 million on the back of RM76.73 million. In other words, a margin of about 10%. Really, nothing too amazing. According to the company, lower profits were due to the completion of its Saujana Glenmarie as well as reduced launches in Iskandar Malaysia. Eco World took over a Johor developer, Focal Aims last year. Current land back that it has would now be 4,926 acres from 991 acres at the start of FY04. Sometimes, it’s hard to really understand how can such a growth be possible when there are so many bigger players before Eco World started. I think perhaps the key is ‘the right focus’ and a very good team.

Sorry, I still have no intention to buy their shares. My personal opinion about shares is that I buy my ‘blue chip’ shares and wait. However, property stocks are not my cup of tea as it is very cyclical. Perhaps I would buy their properties in the future. For now, I have no relations to Eco World yet.

written on 24 Aug 2014

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Eco World International, 84 percent take up rate in London

Malaysian developer with a huge property development in London with financings from Malaysian banks in Pound Sterling. Yes, I am proud, as a Malaysian. We are talking about Eco World Investment Co Ltd which announced that it has secured major approvals for three London property projects with a gross development value (GDV) of £2.257bil (RM13.33bil). In terms of financing, a total of £1.1 bil will come from CIMB Bank and Maybank Investment Bank. The launch is slated for launching within the next 2 years.

Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin said that most of these units are expected to be sold prior to the launches. This is because they are already building up their customer base as well as momentum even before they launch their projects. In its latest launch, London City Island Phase 2 has already achieved an 84% take-up rate within weeks after its official May 30 launch. 25 percent of the firm bookings were by Malaysians while another 25 percent was booked by Singaporean buyers. London has always been an international property market favoured by many, especially the super-wealthy.

On its direct IPO listing into the main board in Bursa Malaysia, the target set by Liew is first quarter of 2016. In future, Eco World Development Group Bhd would focus on projects within Malaysia while Eco World International would be focussed on overseas projects. Both would share the same Eco World brand. Quite a clever move as branding is not easy to achieve and sharing a familiar good brand meant less marketing and branding associated costs too.

Personally, there’s no way that I would be buying any of the London units. Just too far away from the super-wealthy category. I have been to London twice and after my Perth trip, I have to say in terms of retirement, I certainly prefer the Perth city with more greenery compared to London. For excitement and entertainment though, I think London has much more to offer while Perth is more subdued. Then again if I am super-wealthy, of course I would buy both. Haha. Happy investing in London.

written on 3 July 2015

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Eco World International: Expanding presence in London via 12 new sites

Eco World International (EWI) is expanding its foothold in London. (Good news for a Malaysian developer.)
This is the news article in TheStar.
 It says that it will be expanding from its 3 projects to 12 new sites in Greater London and the South East of England. (Yes, Greater KL is definitely a good idea because a growing population means more affordable homes are needed and there is only one choice; further) According to the article, EWI executive vice chairman Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin said, “After considering numerous proposals offered to us we are delighted to be partnering with a company of the experience and stature of Willmott Dixon in a deal that potentially expands our presence in the UK to four times our current size.”

EWI president and chief executive officer Datuk Teow Leong Seng added, “Apart from the acquisition of a 70% interest in the project sites, we will also be acquiring a 70% interest in Wilmott Dixon’s development management arm with full multi-disciplinary team of highly experienced personnel. This will provide us with a strong pool of talent and manpower resources to bring our UK business to greater heights going forward.” This deal would potentially increase EWI’s totalpresence in the UK fourfold and with a sizeable land bank sufficient to build about 6,700 residential units with a total total gross development value (GDV) of at least £2.5bil (RM13.9bil). (Actually, when it is is a much stronger foreign currency,the developer gains a lot more compared to if the cost is fully in a local currency and the revenue is also fully in a local currency)

Beyond this, there is also a framework for a further 1,500 units for which the GDV is still too early to be determined. (Seriously, building just the 6,700 units would take many years…)  Some of the areas that EWI will be developing include an extensive part of the popular London property market, including projects in Barking and Dagenham, Barnet, Brent, Bromley, Ealing, Hounslow, Lambeth, Tower Hamlets and Westminster, all of which are a short commute from Central London and international airports. It also includes one project outside of London in Woking, a busy commercial town, with a rapidly expanding artistic and cultural life within 25 minutes of Central London and close to London Heathrow
Full article in TheStar here.

I always love it when Malaysian developers venture to advanced property markets. It does tell a bit more that our developers are not that ‘domesticated.’ All the best to all other aspiring Malaysian developers venturing outside. Cheers.

written on 8 Nov 2017

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Eco World – London – RM11.9 Billion.

Reported in a local English daily is another exciting project by Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin. No, this is not as big as the Battersea but RM11.9 Billion is indeed still huge by any standard. In fact this may even be higher two years later. This is Eco World Investment Co Ltd, owned by both Tan Sri and Datuk Voon Tin Yow and it is buying a 75% stake in a developer of three large-scale residential projects in London. The estimated gross development value (GDV) is £2.2bil (RM11.9bil). The developer is UK-based Ballymore Group. With this purchase, both would be developing these three parcels together. Total units would be 2,500 and they said this wil be developed to satisfy the current strong demand for housing in the growing east and south London regions.

Total sum to be paid for the stake would be RM2.3 billion. This stake is already close to 20% of the total GDV. While this is not high when compared to Singapore or Hong Kong but when compared to the usual land costs in Malaysia, this is considered on the high side. Of course, this represents a good deal for Eco World because first of all, the development is in London. This has raised Eco World’s profile another notch because all these while only the really big developers would venture out of Malaysia. Secondly, whatever profit gained would be in a currency which is 5 times higher. Thus, even if the percentage is lower, the total profits are five times larger.

The estimated GDV for the three different sites are as follows: London City Island at £614mil (RM3.3bil), Arrowhead Quay at £591mil (RM3.2bil) and Embassy Gardens at £995mil (RM5.4bil). All three projects are due to be launched within this year. Very fast, as usual when we are looking at an efficient developer. Waiting equals to holding costs, thus the faster the better. Nothing else were mentioned, thus we would just have to wait for the next announcement. Would Eco World be opening this to Malaysians first? This is the reason why I asked:
Londoners, homeless. Malaysian caused?

Personally I think this may be the project which will keep Eco World’s owner very busy. What about Battersea then? Haha. I think Battersea is already safe enough to spend less time and effort in the near future? Just in time for the start of this new Malaysia-London connected new project. Buying for your daughters and sons who are looking to study in London? Buying one just based on Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin’s ‘brand’? I think many would. Happy investing in one.

written on 13 Jan 2015

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Eco World net profit surged 172% in Q2 FY21.

Property developers’ results are reflection of the property market’s health. If it’s true as what some people have been saying, then the property market should be very quiet. Property developers’ sales would be bad and of course their results would also be affected too. Here’s another one which has announced a profitable quarter and in fact the numbers do look promising too. Everyone with Eco World shares should rejoice as they have just announced a single-tier divided of 2 sen per share.

Article in theedgemarkets.com
     Eco World Development Group Bhd’s net profit surged 172% to RM42.32 million for the second financial quarter ended April 30, 2021  from RM15.55 million in the previous year’s corresponding quarter.  In a statement, the group said it recorded sales of RM1.32 billion during the quarter, almost double the RM706 million sales achieved in the preceding quarter.

Eco World president and chief executive officer Datuk Chang Khim Wah said, “We are particularly encouraged by the fact that recovery has been broad-based with our projects in every single region performing well.”  The total sales to-date accounts for 88% of its full-year sales target of RM2.875 billion.  Please do read the
full article in theedgemarkets.com

Listening to friends not necessary, reading about results matter more

Anyone from the property developer would do their best to paint a positive picture but sales have to come from the people. In other words, results would have to be announced every quarter, thus all would soon be revealed.  Meanwhile we see real estate agencies continue to show good results from what they post in social media. That’s also part of their branding as they needed to continue hiring more real estate negotiators. Thus, it may also not be an accurate picture of the property market.

We have many property developers which are listed and thus, every now and then we would be able to read about their results. Follow these to get a clearer picture. It’s best to rely on what we read versus listening to some unverified views from friends or even just someone from the industry who may be a little biased (not a lot, but maybe a little) for their own benefit. Yes, I will report these results if I read about them too.  Happy reading.

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Eco World reported net profit for Q3 is RM35.15 million. Positive or negative?

Eco World’s net profit for Q3 is RM35.15 million. Positive or negative?

Property market vitality can only be seen from the results of property developers too. If they start to show losses, that would meant that sales are no longer growing and if their construction has to continue, this would lead to losses in the near term until they sold what they built. By the way there are developers who did not manage to sell all the units even after the project is completed yeah. This is where our overhang numbers come from.

Header Photo by
Pavel Danilyuk
 from
Pexels

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Eco World in Penang? RM875.24 million land for Eco Horizon and Eco Sun

Just a while back, Eco World abandoned their Eco Marina project in Batu Kawan due to some miscalculations. Read here:
Eco Marina Penang no more, for now

In fact they were supposed to get back Rm159million refund for the deposit paid. I think Penangites were disappointed, especially those who bought Batu Kawan because of the Eco World effect. They should be happy now. Eco World announced that it will be buying two parcels of land measuring 374.5 acres in Batu Kawan, Penang for RM875.24 million.

The lands are located strategically nearby the Second Penang Bridge and it will be developed into two townships known as Eco Horizon and Eco Sun. The combined gross development value (GDV) is RM7.76 billion. This implies a land cost vs GDV of around 12.7 percent which is deemed positive. Eco World’s chairman Chairman Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin said that Penang is one of the three main economic corridors they were concentrating on besides
Klang Valley, and Iskandar Malaysia
. For Penang, the group will focus in Batu Kawan.

He said that this will complement the successful Eco Meadows township on the mainland which has achieved near-sold out sales of its first phase of terrace homes since its first launch in September. Batu Kawan’s other huge development would be
Vision City
 and the first significant landmark opening this coming year end would be Design Village Penang. Perhaps Batu Kawan is now worth considering very seriously since the
Penang Bridge 2
 is right beside it? Do share your thoughts yeah. I have no properties in mainland at this moment. Happy following.

written on 28 June 2016

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Eco World, Pudu Prison and RM7 Billion GDV

Every time we hear about Eco World, the GDV is always in the billions. This is despite the fact that Eco World is still considered a young upstart. Of course, everyone knows the team behind Eco World and we shall not explain more. In a report by The Malaysian Insider, it said that Eco World is tipped to win the RM7 Billion redevelopment project of the Pudu Prison, in a joint development with UDA Holdings Bhd. This is reported to be a 70:30 joint venture with UDA for the very prime land in KL’s golden triangle. The Pudu jail ceased its operations officially in 1996.

This is the second time that such an announcement for the redevelopment is to be decided. Three years ago, the China-based developer Everbright International Construction Ltd was to get the project but in the end, this was discontinued and in September 2013, UDA called for a new tender. Nevertheless, it was also reported that this is likely to be a directly negotiated contract. Thus, there would definitely be objections moving forward.

There are many instances that I favour directly negotiated deals. The Pudu Jail is in a very prime piece of land and in order to maximise its value, sorry to say but not every developer who thinks it can do it, should be allowed to do it. Assuming a smallish developer submits the lowest tender out of everyone who submitted and it said that it can have the highest GDV, do you decide that they should get it? If they get it and they are successful, that’s great news but why not reduce the possible risks and go with a very reasonable bid which gives a win-win to both parties; the land owner and the private developer. Please be reminded, there is a reason why YOU, yes you the buyers are willing to pay a premium for these well known developers. The reason being you feel that their project is better, the risks are lower and the potential is greater.

There’s a huge mall in Penang which was supposed to be an iconic mall and it was given to a well known Penang developer. Sorry to say but the mall is really not successful and the developer struggled to bring in huge brand names from out of Penang. Compare that to Queensbay Mall which had a very experienced mall developer and you get a very successful mall which helped to even increase the premiums of all the properties next to it. Ask any Penangite today and majority would prefer to visit Queensbay Mall instead. Note, there is nothing wrong with the Penang developer. I have even bought a property from them and has earned huge profits. However, their expertise is NOT in mall development, that’s all.

I look forward to the next announcements. Seriously hope even if it is not Eco World, it would be another of the top developers which has the experience to ensure the best possible value from that piece of prime land. I know, some say that the site is ‘haunted’ etc but let me tell you honestly and seriously. If I can afford it, I think I would buy one unit.

written on 22 June 2014

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Eco World: RM4 billion target for 2017 achievable

Yes, the property market is challenging for some developers. For some buyers who has received keys to their unit and found out that the price they wanted to sell is not what the next buyer is willing to accept, that’s a headache too. However to think everyone is pulling back and no longer buying is totally untrue. Seriously, even for first-time buyers who is able to get their loans approved, they will buy if the unit is what they are looking for. Malaysia’s
GDP is still expected to be 4.5 percent
or thereabouts for 2017. Another prominent developer has just announced this, “We are optimistic of achieving our RM4 billion sales target this year amid challenging market conditions,” This is their expectations fo the year ending October 2017. This was reported in
NST today
. This sentence came from Eco World DevelopmentGroup Bhd’s chief executive office Datuk Chang Khim Wah.

He gave two valid assessments. Interest rate has been attractive so far. Bank Negara Malaysia is still continuing its accommodative stance instead of worrying too much about increasing the rates so that ringgit can become stronger.
BNM: Stablising ringgit is priority and welcoming long-term investors

He also shared that the property sales have remained strong despite the average household facing rising cost of living. (I think it’s important to note that the group of property buyers for most properties today are also those who is still having a secure job and have sufficient credit score that their loans are approved by the banks. Seriously, it is tougher to get loans because banks themselves are also wary that things are not that positive today)

He then shared something everyone should note, whether they are buying today, tomorrow or in future. He said, We continue to enhance security, infrastructure and amenities for home buyers.”  Actually when we look at huge integrated developments these days, they are further away. That’s the reason why some developers would need to do much more than just build within a mature area and sell high.  To date, Eco World has a total landbank of 8,000 acres. The group is focusing on existing projects in Penang, Johor Baru and the Klang Valley. Next is a good news for any developer. Chang shared, “We are always mindful of our gearing rate, and as a new developer, we want to strengthen our position in the market. By partnering with trusted names such as the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) to help finance our projects, we can sustain our gearing rate to a comfortable level.”  Happy following.

written on 20 Feb 2017

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Eco World: RM955 million sales within first four months

Eco Majestic

Full article about the latest results for
Eco World here.
The sales achievement for Eco World looks good. Within 4 months, it has already secured RM955 million sales and this is 57 percent higher than the first four months of 2016 (RM607.8 million). Out of the RM955 million total, RM797 million was for projects in the Klang Valley, while the remaining RM158mil was for projects in Johor and Penang (RM18 million). My good friend contributed to their sales in the Klang Valley, their Semenyih development. The target for FY2017 is pretty aggressive, at RM4 billion for financial year 2017.
Just last month
, their chief executive officer Datuk Chang Khim Wah said, “We are optimistic of achieving our RM4bil sales target this year amid a challenging market condition.” I think this meant that the second half is going to be much better for Eco World. In terms of undeveloped landbank for Eco World, it currently stands at 5,500 acres with a future potential GDV of RM77.5bil.

Profitability wise, read here for
full article.
 It’s even better actually. Net profit for Eco World Development Group Bhd surged 461 percent to RM116.16mil in the first quarter ended Jan 31, 2017 compared with RM20.67mil in the same period last year. This is due to gain from its dilution of its equity interest in Paragon Pinnacle. Revenue also jumped to RM592.71mil against RM463.51mil previously. The dilution was because of the change in the group’s interest in Paragon Pinnacle from a 100% subsidiary to a 60% joint venture. Employee Provident Fund (EPF) has subscribed to 40% of Paragon Pinnacle’s enlarged share capital pursuant to the terms of the subscription and shareholders’ agreement between the parties. The main reason for the significantly higher sales numbers was because of the strong follow-through momentum from the group’s mega-launches in the final quarter of FY2016. They include Eco Grandeur, Eco Ardence and Bukit Bintang City Centre.

I am happy that my EPF has subscribed to the potential growth of the huge
Bukit Bintang City Centre (BBCC).
In fact,  I can now say I indirectly own a few bricks in the BBCC? 🙂  The numbers from this developer remains good and tells us that the property market is nowhere near a crisis. No, the economy is not in a crisis because if the economy goes down, then it’s best not to buy any property. Remember, during a crisis, property prices can fall substantially within a short period of time. Happy following and perhaps buying and staying in future.

written on 16 March 2017

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Eco World: Total sales of RM6.07 billion within FY16.

In an article in
TheStar,
Eco World president and CEO Datuk Chang Khim Wah said the following about Eco World. “The market has been challenging, but the yield for Eco World is good and commendable. Regardless of any upturn or downturn, we will sail smoothly for the next two years, buttressed by our strong unbilled progress billings.” So, to all those who bought Eco World’s projects, perhaps it’s now time to think about the next one since your current one should be smooth sailing. For FY16, The Eco World brand registered total sales of RM6.07bil in developments within Malaysia and international markets. Eco World sold RM3.4bil while the rest of about RM600mil was from its 27% pro-forma share in Eco World International Bhd (EWI) which is en route to a listing.

Eco World saw its net profit surging by 195% to RM129.3mil compared to FY15. During the same period, revenue rose by 49% to RM2.5bil. As at currently, the gross development value (GDV) of Eco World’s ongoing projects stood at RM87.5bil, with 64% of it within the Klang Valley. Slightly more than half would be developments that it categorised as mass development or upgrader products. These properties range from RM500,000 to RM1mil. There are two more projects to be unveiled in mid-2017. They are Eco Horizon in Penang and Eco Forest in Semenyih. Chang also shared that the company had no plan to increase its landbank holdings. As for the listing of Eco World International, Chang said that it is targeted to be in the first quarter 2017. The shareholders include GuocoLand Ltd with 27 percent stake in EWI post-listing as a strategic investor and a full-fledged partner. Eco World will hold 27 percent while Eco World chairman Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin will hold a further 10% direct stake in EWI.

In case you are not ready to buy Eco World projects but you like the company, this is what CIMB Equities Research said about them. “Rising profitability could be a key potential re-rating for Eco World’s share price.” It is thus retaining its Add call for Eco world Development Group Bhd. CIMB Research also said that while the earnings prospects for Eco World over the next three years would be lower than the 75% net profit compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) it achieved in FY13-16, its numbers could still be the strongest among all the developers in its coverage. If you want to read in full what they say, it’s
here
. I do not own any properties by Eco World and has sold my small number of units earlier. Perhaps time to get a few more as fixed deposit? Happy following.

written on 9 Dec 2016

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Target price, downside risks and new national housing policy

Price is what we pay and value is
what we get, says Warren Buffett.
  This is the same in every investment. If we buy an undervalued stock, we will soon gain when the market realises its value and pushes it up. If we buy an undervalued property, when market gets better, the price would move up to reflect its value. This is the reason why some property hunters target auction properties too and not just from the primary or the secondary market. Oh yeah, buying overvalued stuffs will not be a clever move yeah.

Here’s a research by
CGSCIMB Research published in theedgemarkets.com
 Briefly, it is putting a target price of RM1.42 to Eco World Development Group Bhd (Ecoworld). It’s trading at RM1.23 on 21st September 2018. It says that Ecoworld’s core net profit for cumulative nine months ending Oct 31,2018 was 53 percent inline and it expects a stronger 4Q for Ecoworld because of ongoing work progress and stronger joint-venture (JV)/associate contributions. It also quoted  the #OnlyEcoWorld campaign in June 2018, which more than doubled total new sales of RM923 million achieved in 1HFY18, representing 57% of its RM3.5 billion FY18 sales target. Eco Ardence was the major sales contributor (RM380 million), followed by Eco Grandeur (RM196 million). Unbilled sales stood at RM6.2 billion as of end-August 2018, translating into 2.1 times FY17 revenue. It gave three reasons why it expects Ecoworld’s earnings to come in stronger:

i) higher revenue recognition as 10 projects will have transitioned into the growth phase of their project life cycles;

ii) JV projects reaching a higher stage of completion and starting to contribute in FY18; and

iii) its 27%-owned EWI turning profitable in FY18.

The only downside risk to the target price would be a sudden deterioration in property market sentiment.
Full article in edgemarkets.com here.
 I think the property market would need some positive catalysts. One example would be the Budget 2019 which will be tabled in November. An earlier catalyst for a more positive sentiment would be that hotly anticipated NEW national housing policy which is scheduled to be unveiled in September by our Housing and Local Government Minister Zuraida Kamaruddin. (Yes, there are just a few days left in September). What the policy would address will be the definition of affordable housing, the future building concept, size and amenities that the ministry intends to incorporate in public and private housing schemes. The policy is also meant to address the current oversupply in the market. Let’s wait for the announcement then since this will mean a lot to the property market in Greater Kuala Lumpur.

written on 26 Sept 2018

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Eco World, the only bidder for PDC’s 190.2ha land in Batu Kawan

PDC will be selling a 190.2ha land in Batu Kawan to Eco World for development into a golf course and a mixed development project. The RM1.02 billion will be offered to PDC within 2 weeks at RM50 per sf. Eco World was the only bidder for that piece of land. Eco World also intends to build landed properties on the hilly portion of the land as well as a waterfront city, overlooking the Penang island. Currently, Eco World owns a 24.28 ha land in Bukit Tambun for which it will be building the Eco Meadows next year. Before you question why only one developer bid for the project, please do look at the price tag. RM1.02 billion. Unfortunately, not that many developers have such deep pockets. Thus, there is no surprise here.

I have yet to personally see any significant launchings in Batu Kawan yet and thus I think this one by Eco World may set the standards for all other developers to follow. Of course, for the smaller developers who is following this, I think they are now starting to look at smaller pieces of lands next to or nearby the Eco World’s piece. According to Henry Butcher’s associate director, the prices in south of Seberang Perai is now hovering at around RM 40 and RM 50 per sf. I remembered just three years ago, a friend said he was selling some land in mainland for RM12 per sf. Even the land prices in Batu Maung was also in the same range before a huge development was undertaken by Mah Sing right after the second Penang Bridge.

Besides this, some other notable land deals include Tambun Indah’s 200 acres RM16.40 per sq ft agriculture land in Simpang Ampat. Aspen Holdings also bought 99ha of land from PDC to build the Aspen Vision City. Of course, not to be forgotten would be IKEA which is said to be conducting its survey and if everything goes according to plan would open in 2018. Read it here:
IKEA opening in 2018
. It does seem that mainland is poised for continuous growth right? Today, a reader asked, ‘should he buy a landed development in Simpang Ampat. Seriously, for own stay, landed and affordability, SImpang Ampat is a good choice. If however it’s for investment, I personally still prefer KL for a faster turnaround and the rental potential too. Last week, another friend asked if there are any good deals in the island for RM500,000. I told her that mainland is better bet for her budget and family of 4. I think that sums up my current view of Batu Kawan. Stay, sure!

written on 15th Sept 2014

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1998 vs 2015, just numbers, no rhetorics.

I do not believe ANY politicians when they talk about economy. Regardless of those who said Malaysian economy is still strong or those who are asking if Malaysia should repeg the currency to US$. I believe my personal understanding based on numbers as well as reading from what the economists or analysts are saying is definitely better than ANY politician. Come on, those on the government side has to put up a strong face and those on the opposition side has to paint a bad picture of the government. This has not changed throughout the world and certainly would not change in Malaysia. Read on if you want to read facts. Stop reading if you think I have offended any of the politician whom you are supporting blindly today.

We can start by looking at an easy to compare chart published in The Star today. First of all, the GDP has clearly shown that as a country, Malaysia has grown tremendously. From a big country with a smaller GDP compared even to a small country like Singapore, today, Malaysia’s GDP is larger than Singapore and not likely to be smaller again in future. Per capita income has also grown and no matter how you want to say that Malaysians are facing pressure, are facing higher cost of living and more, fact is many of the middle income Malaysians are living a better life today. Should we help the Malaysians who are falling behind? Of course we must continue to help them. We are talking about the state of the economy today versus 1998, okay?

GDP growth then was also negative because of the financial crisis which hit Thai Baht first and then the rest in the region including even South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. Yes, all three are supposed to be BETTER managed than Malaysia? Well, when crisis comes, it’s a confidence crunch. Everyone within the same region would be affected and it may spread to the world, like what happened during the 2008 mortgage crisis which was caused by ONE economy which was supposed to be well managed but GREED took over.

Non Performing Ratio (NPL) in 1998 was 9%. This meant that not many banks dared to lend. They were also not strong. The NPL is today 1.2%. If you know what is Risk Weighted Capital Adequacy Ratio or Basel 3, you would also understand that the banks in Malaysia are looking good today. No one can promise they will look good if the world goes into a crisis but understand if the crisis hits, it is hitting us when we are at a strong position and not during 1998 when so many companies and so many banks were all very weak or in trouble.

Household Debt to GDP is the red flag but we must look at the underlying factors as well. Is it all due to speculative activities? Well, currently not yet. Have you not heard that loan rejections are still very high? In other words, only those who qualify could borrow. It was totally different during the 2008 mortgage crisis. Any Tom, Dick and Harry could borrow to ‘speculate’ in the property market. In the end, the crisis happened. Oh yeah, in case you wanted to know, in US, Household Debt to GDP is 80.1%. Even for Singapore, Household Debt to GDP is at 75.8% of GDP, end 2014. Singapore’s Government Debt to GDP is already near to 100% of GDP today.

Fiscal deficit of 3.2% is only okay if there are continuous push towards reducing it. Thus far, all the three international ratings agencies are still rating Malaysia at ‘investment grade’ but this is ONLY if the deficit continues to go down. Try having it increasing and rest assured that the ratings would change.

Trade account is still healthy. Exports are still more than imports. The higher the better! I think this is very important but perhaps it’s not a major consideration because “The United States has been running consistent trade deficits since 1976 due to high imports of oil and consumer products.” Despite this huge trade deficit, take a look at the US$ vs RM exchange today.

Would Ringgit continue to drop in value? I think the answer is yes when we look at the current sentiment. Everything is negative and perhaps this sentiment may also soon affect some of the fundamentals. Already some are taking a much more cautious stance already. Some foreign banks have also forecasted US$1 to RM4 by year end.

Happy reading more.

written on 9 Aug 2015

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Negative? Economic growth, employment and inflation for Malaysia.

In 2020, Malaysia’s GDP growth was a negative one. Minus 5.6% to be exact. We have not been in minus growth for a very long time. Let’s hope it’s only just for 2020 yeah.

What about the GDP growth by state? Which state is actually performing better than others and which are the states which will need to do better in 2021?

Anyway, for people looking for jobs, need to look at the states where they have the industry which you love to join yeah. By the way, the bigger the negative, it also meant that the industry was in a much more positive year in 2019.

A very good example, Services under Selangor, the only reason it is negative 6.8% is also because the lockdown as affected it the most since this is a major industry in Selangor. However, look at manufacturing and we should realise that it’s really not doing badly at all.

We also need to remember for overall economy, it grew 6.8% in 2019 overall. Thus even at minus 5.3% for 2020, Selangor was still growing versus 2018. So, get ready to make a comeback in 2021, hopefully by final quarter in 2021. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Image source:
dosm.gov.my

Positive – Exports

Our exports are growing tremendously. We also import more because we process these and then export them as value-added products. Overall basis, we continue to enjoy trade surplus. This means export is higher than imports.

Yes, based on NORMAL exchange rate, Ringgit should be moving upwards and that country which kept having deficits, the current value should be going down. Unless of course the currency is used for SPECULATIVE purpose and not based on trade yeah.

Positive – Labour Market

It’s okay yeah, until May. More people found jobs. June onwards may be getting worse but generally, jobs remain aplenty even if not everyone wants to do those jobs or could qualify for some of the more specialised ones.

Just take a look at
jobstreet.com.my
 to understand that everyday, more than 20,000 titles are advertised. All these are PAID advertisements, so definitely not many companies like to post for fun and pay for it.

Positive – CPI a.k.a inflation lah

By the way, a negative CPI is not considered a good market indicator. It meant that demand for goods and services are very low and the supply side had to reduce price in order to sell. Of course on the other hand, high CPI is also not good. However, I think for now, I prefer to have the market start to show that it has resilient in demand for goods and services. So, I consider this as positive.

Wait till next time, will report again. Happy understanding.

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Economic Growth, Interest Rates, Stronger Ringgit and Slowing Export

After a very positive H1 2014 in terms of GDP growth for Malaysia (6.3%), the full year forecast is now expected to be stronger than that estimated previously by all analysts. Referring to StarBiz’s poll of economists, the GDP forecast is averaging at 5.8% and three economists are predicting a growth of up to 6% for 2014! According to RHB Research Chief economist, “Although domestic demand growth will likely moderate in the second half, dampened by slowing government spending due to the fiscal consolidation drive and curbs on the property market, it will likely remain resilient and act as the main anchor of growth during the year. We expect consumer spending to hold up and private investment to remain relatively strong amid elevated price pressures,”.

In easier to understand language, it meant that first half growth is too positive and may not be repeated in the second half. However, while it will slow compared to first half, everything would remain relatively positive/resilient. Consumer spending would continue and private investment is still continuing.

Next would be the interest rates. Some analysts say that Bank Negara would be raising the overnight policy rate (OPR) by another 25 basis points in September while some said that Bank Negara would keep the existing OPR rate for the whole of 2014. The reason for the hike in September is due to the need to address the negative real interest rate situation in Malaysia. This happens when the inflation rate is HIGHER than the fixed deposit that you get from the banks. With a higher OPR, it will also ensure financial stability and further keep the inflation in check. Another reason is because of the growth which has been encouraging and thus interest rate can be raised further without impacting the growth too much. (With higher interest rate, people may be encouraged to save more and this may reduce the demand and thus impacting growth)

For those who believed that OPR rates would remain steady till end of the year, they feel that inflation level in Malaysia is still manageable. Thus a hike may not be good as it may slow down the country’s domestic demand and this in turn would slow down the growth. Besides that, any interest rate rise is likely to strengthen the Ringgit further and this may affect the export performance. (Strong Ringgit means countries importing from us may choose to import from countries with cheaper currency instead)

I am not a financial analyst. I do have a business qualification from a good business school in UK and an accredited MBA. Instead of calculations or stats, from what I can see in terms of demands for cars, purchase of new handphones, the always full Starbucks as well as mushrooming of even more specialty cafes meant that the consumer confidence remain to be positive even if not considered extremely high. I do not see any impending reasons why consumer spending may be slowing down. Come on, even Iphone 6 is launching soon. Take a look at the queue which will build up. In this sense, I would support the view that Bank Negara should increase the rate further to keep everything more in check and gives more flexibility in future for Bank Negara to adjust interest rate to support growth when possible. Only problem for me is that my mortgage payments would also increase. I think it may be better for me to sell a property soon to reduce this mortgage pressure. 🙂

written on 19 Aug 2014

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Summary Q2 2015: Malaysian economy, Ringgit and Zeti.

My usual readers would understand my position about Ringgit and Malaysia’s economy. You can read latest one here:
1998 vs 2015, just numbers, no rhetorics
  Will not be saying too much. There are many articles about this today and I think it’s best for me to read them and summarise instead. Today Tan Sri Zeti answered lots of questions and I think the market has also reacted positively, at least for now. Ringgit is still above RM4 to US$1 but has since rebounded slightly. Volatility is the flavour of the day for many more days to come.

Economic growth for Malaysia slowed to 4.9% in the second quarter of 2015, compared with 5.6%. This growth is supported by continued expansion in services and a turnaround in agricultural production.

Private
 consumption expanded 6.4% in Q2 versus 8.8% in Q1. This was due to growth in the consumption on food & beverages, housing & utilities, communication and transportation.

Pegging? There are NO plans to peg the Ringgit. Volatility would continue until there is certainty in direction from major economies. Yes, this definitely includes that country which is still thinking whether or not to adjust its rates upwards.

Inflation? Up 2.2% in Q2 2015. Expected to go higher with the effects

Retirement? Zeti WILL remain governor till end of her term which ends on April 2016. I seriously hope she does not suddenly loses her job. Read here:
Uncertainty in Malaysia? My personal 4 signs

She has been Bank Negara Governor for 16 years and has been with BNM for 35 years. I think it’s ok that she can pursue her next goal which is to write a book.

Stupid rumours about Bank Negara and herself? She said, she did not suffer any heart attack. If only the anonymous person who spread such false rumours are found, she will take legal actions.

Inflation was higher in the second quarter, growing at 2.2% and will go up higher before moderating by mid 2016.

Ringgit depreciation? Bank Negara would only ensure an orderly functioning of the market to avoid disruptions to trade and business activities. What about the rest in the region thus far?

Region currencies versus US dollar? Ringgit is down 13.33%.  Indonesian Rupiah is down 9.88%.   South Korean Won down by 8.35%    and Thai Baht by 6.99%   After two days, Yuan is now down by 4.61%.

BURSA market?  Rebounded today, 11.69 points up. 714 shares up while 217 is down.

Last but not least, her exact words: When she was asked about the US$700 million that was deposited into the personal account of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib’s, she replied that she would only reply within the confines of the law.
“Otherwise the moment I step out of this door, I will face arrest for talking about individuals’ accounts. I am sure you do not want that to happen,” she joked.”

Until today, there are still people asking me or searching online for questions as to whether Malaysia would fall into a recession. Kindly understand what is a recession before asking such a question. Once you understand, then there’s no need to question that, for now. Happy reading.

written on 13 Aug 2015

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Economically, we are healthy, seriously. (says LGE)

Okay, this comes directly from our current Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng. So, this is definitely true. He said that Malaysia’s economic indicators are very encouraging. He pointed out that Malaysia’s foreign direct investment (FDI) increased 250 percent to RM49 billion in the first nine month of 2018 while exports rose to a record RM94.4 billion.
Article in NST here.
 Besides that, inflation was at a low 1.2 percent in the first nine months of 2018. He said, “We must bear in mind that the global economy situation is facing more severe challenges compared with those faced by us in Malaysia; therefore, we are convinced that if the rakyat are united, regardless of race, religion or background, we will be strong and stable as a nation in overcoming all future economic challenges.

Everyone has their 2019 wish for the government? Here’s mine. My personal wish for 2019 is that FDI for 2019 to increase by just 100% over 2018’s numbers. Hopefully someone in all the right ministries are looking at this and putting this into their KPIs.  Second wish is for exports to hit a new record high. This requires a lot more effort of signing trade agreements, of finding new markets for Malaysian goods as well as to push the SMEs to the fore by equipping them and let them compete against the world too.

Third wish is of course for inflation to remain low which will usually be taken care by a negative sentiment. It’s always a chicken and egg situation. When sentiment is positive, economic does extremely well, the demand for all goods go up and well, prices will follow up too. At those times, it’s hard to tame the inflation. When times are not too positive (like now) and sentiment is not too positive (like now), the demand for all goods go down and well, the prices of goods tend to go down as traders want to attract more buyers.  So, my wish is for the sentiment to start turning positive but for everyone to only buy if the price is right. This will ensure inflation does not spiral out of control. Happy understanding.

written on 2 Jan 2019

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Economic Outlook. Is Malaysia above the projections?

Effects from Covid-19 on the economic growth?

With economies reopening and Covid-19 measures being relaxed, economies are growing again. Finally, we do not see all those negative numbers anymore. In fact, looking at the chart below shows one thing; the global economy is rising and 2021 represented that first year of growth after a very low 2020. Meanwhile 2022 continued to show growth numbers even if this may trend lower since many economies are now on the path towards fighting inflation.
Read it here: War of inflation versus interest rate

Image below shows emerging market and developing economies showing an average of close to 5% for 2022, 2023.

Source:
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/01/25/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2022

Growth Projections by Region

The region growing fastest would be the emerging and developing Asia. By the way, this is where Malaysia is grouped in. Meanwhile the Sub-Saharan Africa continued to show resilience and stable growth of around 4 percent every year. I think this is good news and Africa will be one of thoe regions where everyone would have to pay attention to. The EURO and the United States are now doing their best to control inflation. When rates rise, then sentiments are dampened. Thus, the consumption of goods and services will slow and businesses will not be thinking of expansion so much. Just need to be aware of this.

Source:
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2022/01/25/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2022

Malaysia’s fragile economy

Could we grow faster than all these predicted numbers? Could we maintain our export competitiveness even as the world slows down and perhaps import less? How do we control the inflation better beyond just using interest rates which is a sweeping measure and will also affect people with loans to pay every month? It may be best to go to the ground and identify the real causes and nip it in the bud. If someone raised their price and said it’s because costs have increased, can someone verified this and find out the details?

For example, if price of sugar is going up, should price of teh tarik go up immediately and at a higher %?  For example, if prices of flour is going up, does this immediately translate to a 50 percent increase in the price of roti canai? Think about it yeah. Happy understanding that many times the power of choice is also within us too. Yes, I have decided to find a new favourite dry curry noodle after I found out that my favourite stall increased the price and reduced the portion. I am sure there are others who want my business.

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Economic Partnerships and future integration with RCEP

The more we get together, together, together…

I like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) which currently has 10 members. They are as follows: 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. China is the 2nd largest economy in the world. Japan is the 3rd largest.  South Korea is the 10th largest. The rest are out of the top 10 but ASEAN as a bloc is the 5th largest economy in the world.

Okay, enough of the introduction. Hopefully we get to work and do more yeah. First thing is definitely to trade from one another FIRST. Second is of course to trade in OWN currencies versus using US$ all the time which frankly is not needed. If I buy from China, I pay in RM and if they cannot accept RM, then might as well no need this kind of economic partnership lah. If Thailand buys from Malaysia, they pay in Thai Baht. We just ensure the currencies are all stable and demand for all the RCEP countries’ currencies would be more stable and will also facilitate the trade even better!

Just need to look at the fluctuation of the MOST USED currency to understand why. The day I buy and the day I pay may be different. This meant that the losses / gains may not even be because of my efficiency or productivity but it’s simply because of the movement of exchange rate. If this is the case all the time, better no need to do trading lah. Just play in the currency market loh.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency

The news article in nst.com.my here
  Xinhua reported that the RCEP agreement is now in effect for all 15 members.  This agreement is focused on supporting an open, free, fair, inclusive, and rules-based multilateral trading system.

The RCEP agreement was signed in November 2020 by the 15 Asia-Pacific countries after eight years of negotiations. It entered into force on the first day of 2022, creating the world’s largest trade bloc.

The full implementation will inject strong momentum into regional economic integration, comprehensively enhance the level of trade and investment liberalisation and facilitation in East Asia, and contribute to the long-term stable development of the regional and global economy, said the commerce ministry.  Please do read in full here.
The news article in nst.com.my here

Let’s get India into this as well

If India joins, then this economic partnership will be even bigger. Other economic bloc will have to tread more cautiously when they negotiate with any RCEP members. Every negotiation should be based on partnership, win-win and never about who’s bloc is bigger. Some other economic blocs has been huge, has been able to integrate the economies well and has been able to move forward as one powerful entity. Any new economic partnership blocs is certainly welcomed, especially if Malaysia is part of it to benefit the economy and ultimately the businesses and the people too.

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Help is coming (economic stimulus). Please hold on. (businesses)

Many countries have started to state their intention to launch stimulus packages to support businesses and industries affected by the covid-19 (coronavirus). This is because if these industries are in trouble, businesses will  be affected and retrenchments may happen. When people lose their jobs, then they will have problems in paying for their loans and the issues will become worse and will start to affect other industries too. This is why an economic stimulus package is necessary. Malaysia has also planned for one.

Article in nst.com.my
   Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng said that Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad will announce an economic stimulus package on Feb 27 to mitigate the adverse external economic impacts brought about by the Covid-19 outbreak.  He said, “While the market is facing serious challenges, we should not despair but instead persevere to allow our industry to survive so that the country is ready to benefit from the economic rebound once the Covid-19 threat is over.”

He added in a statement, “The government will adopt measures to assist these companies, but emphasis should also be placed on exploring alternative revenues such as shifting towards encouraging domestic tourism, and sourcing from other markets.”  Lim also said that the stimulus package was formulated with cooperation between his ministry and other ministries including Economic Affairs, Transport, Tourism, Arts and Culture as well as various government agencies. Please read the
Article in nst.com.my

Remember yeah, the stimulus package is likely to be short-term in nature. On a longer term, we need to quickly adapt what we intended to achieve in Q1 so that it could still be achieved within the remaining months in 2020. A very good example would be the 2020 Visit Malaysia Year. If the Chinese tourists are going to be fewer this year, then we have to already have a plan ready to roll out as soon as the situation gets better.

Alternatively, it’s time to really diversify too and not rely on a few major markets for example. These new strategies must be decided now and rolled out. There is no time to wait because any new policy will need time to implement. Happy understanding.

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Economic outlook and working from home, do they mix well?

Working from home favoured by many employees

Majority would prefer to earn the same pay and yet could work from home. That’s a lot of savings in time, money and mental health; no traffic jam, no stress. Actually, at best, this would be temporary and more and more companies will be getting their employees back to office. This is not just the traditional businesses yeah. It includes all the technology firms and the below company’s new owner has told all the employees to ‘come back to office’ to work. No more working from home.

Article in bloomberg.com
  New
Twitter Inc.
 owner Elon Musk emailed his workers for the first time late Wednesday to prepare them for “difficult times ahead” and ban remote work unless he personally approved it.

Musk said there was “no way to sugarcoat the message” about the economic outlook and how it will affect an advertising-dependent company like Twitter.  The new rules, which kick in immediately, will expect employees to be in the office for at least 40 hours per week.

He has also
eliminated
 “days of rest” from Twitter staff calendars. Musk wrote, “The road ahead is arduous and will require intense work to succeed.” The full article here:
Article in bloomberg.com

Twitter was not the first, will not be the last

50% of all companies want their employees to be back to office.
Article in cnbc.com here.

US Bank wants employees back to office three days a week.
Full article here.

Companies luring employees back to office.
Full Article here in nypost.com here.

Google wants employees to be back to office.
Full article in engadget.com

Bossess are winning the battle to get workers back to office.
Full article in forbes.com here.

9 out of 10 companies would want employees back to office starting 2023.
Full article in resumebuilder.com

Disagree if you like, working from home may make you lose your job (especially if your pay is high…)

If we could work from home and we could complete our work and there is no need to be in the office at all, what this meant is that anyone from anywhere in the world who could do our role for less money could replace us. Frankly, nothing beats a coffee together in the morning with colleagues and bosses and that occasional townhall where everyone gets first hand information and could actually meet one another, laugh together and happy hour after work together.

However, if all these are no longer happening and online meetings are the norm, tell me why everyone needs to be in the same city… or state or even country. Just interview and get the best people for the lowest cost possible and the company could spend less, earn more and perhaps even rewards these lower paid employees better too. Win-Win for everyone.

In case everyone has forgotten, many of these employees in developing countries also got their degrees from the same universities as the more expensive employees who says they only want to work from home… Happy debating though by 2023, it will be clear whether more people would work from home or more would be working from office. Cheers.

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No.1 and No.5 largest economies may increase rates SOON

When growth is strong, interest rates should be adjusted. It should not be too low because it may create unnecessary wastage or inflation. In other words, less speculative activities. For example, when people are way too bullish, they may simply buy more properties, causing property bubble to build and when it become unsustainable, everything falls suddenly. When property bubble bursts, it will also cause instability with the banks. Lending would suddenly stop, creating panic among those who genuinely needed loans for their businesses and not for speculative activities. Most of the time, the central banks would take pro-active steps to ensure this does not happen.

Two have signalled that their move is coming soon. This meant that growth has been pretty good and thus the rates should increased to curb speculative activities. Both Janet Yellen of US Federal Reserve and Mark Carney of Bank of  England has announced this direction. Of course, this does not mean the whole world is on the path of recovery. Remember Greece? The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will keep the rock-bottom interest rates and ensure the bank’s monthly €60 billion (RM247 billion) asset purchases would continue until September 2016. In brief, support is necessary for the growth to continue.

China is not doing well, especially with regards to its stock market while Japan continues its massive quantitative easing asset-buying programme. Both are expecting slower growth. In Malaysia, some believed recession is coming but it’s more likely for a slower growth compared to 2014 instead. Bank Negara Malaysia is expected to maintain the Base Rate steady to be accommodative to economic growth. Inflation edged up recently but remain low. Keep reading and understanding. After all, when all these bigger economies or region catch a cold, it will inevitably affect smaller trading nations such as Malaysia. Be very careful because if it gets bad suddenly, property is very hard to let go immediately. Happy anticipating.

written on 20 July 2015

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Economy and Property. 4 things about economic growth.

On 2nd March 2022, I gave a 40 minute sharing. Take a look at the above. My topic was about Economy and Property. Out of the 28 slides I presented, I think I will share 4 slides here to just look at the state of the Malaysian economy. We also look at things which could reveal to us what’s really happening in the market.

Yes, if the economy is growing, it will lead to people feeling more confident as they could get a decent job. This will then drive the demand for goods and services and in the very near future, property. People do not buy a property as soon as they feel confident. There’s a lagging factor, so if the economy is growing, probably the property transactions should show an uptrend one or two quarters later. Here are the 4 slides.

#1 – Which stage is our economy now?

If we have 2 quarters of negative growth, we have technical recession. If the full year is negative, we have a recession. Well, we experienced both from the numbers below. 4 quarters of negative growth in GDP from Q2 2020 all the way to Q1 2021. Due to the low case, Q2 2021 GDP suddenly shot up taller than a durian tree. 🙂

It is positive 3.6% in Q4 2021. In other words, we are not in a recession and we are also not in a technical recession. At the moment, it seems that the economy is growing…  Bank Negara Malaysia is also supportive of this growth. This was what they did to the
Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) on 3rd March 2022. (Read all about it here)

#2 – What are the predictions for GDP growth in 2022?

Well, depending on who we like to refer to, it ranges from 5.5% all the way to 6.5%. Let’s hope it’s on the higher side versus on the lower side. The predictions are as below. Just google for those articles and have a read on why they predicted those numbers yeah.

#3 – Let’s look at people without jobs; unemployment

As long as the number remain stable and showing a bias for a downtrend, we should be okay. I meant the unemployment numbers. We need to understand also that the demand for goods and services will come from the over 95% of the employed Malaysians and smaller demand from the unemployed. In other words, if there are confidence, these over 95% of Malaysians with a job will be the one driving the economic growth, not the ones without a job.

#4 – Banks’ results will reflect the market

If the market is truly bad, businesses will not borrow money. People would also not borrow money to buy properties. Thus, if we like to know if the market is moving, look at banks’ latest results. Just refer below and we can see generally, the numbers for 2021 is better than that of 2020. With moratorium ending end 2021, what do you think will happen to the banks’ profit numbers for 2022? Your guess is as good as mine. My guess is, their numbers will be even healthier than 2021. We will see.

Never believe anyone asking you to buy a property without looking at the economy

If someone were to ask us to buy a property, it’s good to ask them how’s the economy doing. If they could not answer, perhaps good for us to read a bit more. They may be selling a property to you because they wanted the commission. Well, if they wanted the commission, then they should read more and share more. Then, the buyer will feel more relieved with actual understanding of what’s happening with the economy. Buying blindly is not a clever thing to do no matter what is the state of the economy.

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Economy? Bubble? Look at banks, just numbers.

Is the Malaysian economy in trouble? Depends on who you ask these days. One end says it is about to collapse. Another side says this is the strongest ever. Well, whether about to collapse or the strongest ever, life goes on for most working Malaysians like me. I still have to work hard and hope that my company does not fire me.
Many applied to be separated from their company!
Please do remember that if we buy the wrong property at the wrong price, it will still be a disaster for us regardless yeah. Coming back to those signs of property bubble bursting. Remember them?

Spotting signs of a property bubble, 3 points

I briefly shared these three points with the crowd at the recent
iPropertycom’s Home & Investment Fair in MyTown Mall.
 Most of them nodded their heads, so I assume they understand and would start looking at the signs by themselves? 😛

One major sign for potential property bubble bursting is always the Non Performing Loan (NPL) numbers for banks. It (NPL) will start going up because when the property prices has gone up too high, everyone is stretched to their limits in paying for them and some would start to miss payments. After some people start to miss payments due to extremely high property prices, these would be classified under the NPL and the banks would start to worry. Many banks would start to be even more stringent in lending and this would worsen the situation because people who genuinely may not get the ‘bridge’ (loan) they needed. Anyway, as of currently, this is not the case, yet. Let’s look at a few announcements by the banks recently shall we.

Maybank posts record profit but warn of EXTERNAL uncertainties ahead.
Here’s one recent article in TheStar.
 For the first time ever, Maybank breached the RM7 billion profit level. Pre-Tax profit is at RM10.1 billion. Maybank’s full-year payout to shareholders stands at RM5.90bil or 78.5% of net profit, which translates into a dividend yield of 5.6% – one of the highest among banks in the region.

Public Bank also posted a fresh record profits too. RM5.47 billion.
Here’s that announcement in TheStar.
Pre-tax profit wise, it was also highest ever, at RM7.2 billion. It said, “With the resilient performance in 2017, the Public Bank group continued to achieve a high net return on equity of 15.8% whilst maintaining its low gross impaired loan ratio of 0.5% and an efficient cost-to-income ratio of 31.9%. ” Public Bank’s cost-to-income isonly 31 percent and this is by far lower than the industry’s average cost-to-income ratio of 45.8%.

CIMB also posted a good set of numbers for FY17. Net profit is at RM4.47 billion while pre-tax profit is at a record high at RM6.11 billion.
Reports in TheStar.

The group’s cost-to income ratio improved to 51.8% compared with 53.9% in FY16. Its group CEO Tengku Datuk Zafrul Aziz said, “This year will also see us complete our presence in all 10 Asean countries with our first branch opening in the Philippines by end-2018. We are also excited to launch our digital banking proposition in Vietnam in 1H18. (VERY GOOD…)

Good to note that the industry’s top 3 local banks are all posting new records. When we look at the cost-to-income ration, it does seem that some banks may have to do a bit more to catch up with the rest. Frankly, this is no longer just competing against the local banks. Yes, I firmly believe that local banks would have to do what many other international foreign banks have been doing; cutting costs continuously because of technology. All the best in getting your loans approved yeah. Without more growth from the domestic market, there’s no way for these banks to report another set of awesome results for FY18. Yes, it’s clear that where the banking sector is concerned, it is not going to be the trigger for the next property bubble crisis. Cheers.

written on 3March 2018

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Economy Malaysia: Heading towards recovery BUT…

What’s happening to Economy Malaysia. Up or still Down?

If you attend any property talk, do ask the speaker about the economic growth and the effects on property market. More often than not many fail to realize that for the property market to remain vibrant or even under the growing phase, the economy must move first. This is why when there are articles about ‘Economy Malaysia’, I will definitely cover it. This gives everyone another understanding about the potential for the property market.

Article in edgeprop.my
  DBS Bank said Malaysia’s economy is starting to recover gradually from the Covid-19 crisis following a tumultuous 2020 and 2021, but is maintaining its growth forecasts of 4% for 2021 and 5% for 2022.

It said in a note, “An emerging recovery is helped by vaccinations reaching critical mass and falling infection rates, allowing for a safer and wider domestic reopening, and considerations to relax international border restrictions. In our view, supportive economic policies — as seen from the expansionary Budget 2022 — should also bode well for growth prospects going into 2022.”

However there are issues such as China’s growth slowdown which is a dark cloud preventing Malaysia from expanding at a faster pace. It also expects Malaysia to take the first step in raising its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) in the second half of 2022, from 1.75% currently.

Malaysia’s government borrowings are expected to stay elevated in 2022 with net domestic borrowings projected to be at RM97 billion, very close to 2021’s estimated size of RM98.8 billion. Please do read the full article here:
Article in edgeprop.my

When the economy recovers…

People with more stable job outlook will start to think of investing into a property versus renting to preserve the cash (down-payment). It’s a simple fact that when times are uncertain, people will prefer to keep cash versus buying something which may tie up all funds such as a property of RM500,000 or higher. It’s just not that comfortable especially with unemployment creeping upwards.

Businesses will be more willing to invest for potential future gains. For example, buying better machines, investing into a bigger commercial property for future business expansion and with all these new investments, it meant that they need more manpower. This will drive the property market as well as to increase the number of jobs. When there are more jobs, more consumption will soon follow.

Generally, sentiment will be positive when Economy Malaysia is a positive one. No one likes a negative number every quarter. These are some of the reasons why economic growth will drive the demand in the property market. Just need to note that bad properties remain bad properties regardless of the economy yeah. Sometimes, buying an overpriced property will mean many years of holding on… or sometimes they say, hanging on… Happy reading.

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Economy Malaysia: “Outlook is looking bright” This was what Moody’s Analytics said.

Why the economy must do well for most investors?

For majority of all investors, when the economy does well, then the investment returns would usually be higher. No GDP growth… how to have more jobs… without more jobs… how to have more people earning money…and then spending that money… buy things online, buy things at the mall, travel and of course buying cars as well as properties too.

What’s the latest then about Malaysia’s economic outlook?

Now that we know why economic growth is important, let’s look at the one latest view about Malaysia’s economuc outlook. If you like to know what happened in 3Q 2021, here’s that earlier
announcement by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM). (click here to read)
 Very briefly, it was a contraction in 3Q 2021. In other words, negative growth where GDP is concerned. We were in lockdown… remember?

Article in themalaysianreserve.com
  Moody’s Analytics said this about the economic outlook for Malaysia. ” “Nonetheless, the economic outlook is bright.” It expects Malaysia’s fourth-quarter growth to rebound because of a strong export performance and also a pick up in private consumption as borders reopen.

It said this about 3Q 2021 growth. “Domestic consumption, which contributes to two-thirds of the GDP, was hit by measures which shut non-essential businesses and restricted social activities and dining out while retail sales have been declining in yearly terms since June, although we expect spending to pick up towards the year-end holiday season.” If you like to read more:
Article in themalaysianreserve.com

Pent-Up Demand is definitely happening for 4Q 2021 for economy Malaysia

Actually we do not need any reports to tell us that as soon as lockdown is lifted, people would restart their travelling. This is why hotel bookings are up again. Yes, I know because I have a small condo in Cameron Highlands.

People would start to visit malls again. They will be tempted to spend money buying something they have missed for many months. Yes I know because I do visit malls too.

People would love to enjoy dining in their favourite restaurants. More often than not, they will order extra few dishes even if they may not be able to finish everything. Yes because I was doing the same in my first few visits.

Finally, even more importantly, people could resume their property purchase too. Now they could visit property developer sales galleries again.  They could now have a cup of coffee with their real estate agent friends to know more about that RM930,000 property for their next upgrade.

All these would happen in the quarter right after the lockdown quarter. Thus 4Q 2021, we will definitely see a positive 4Q in terms of economic growth. In order to have this growth to continue, we will need to ensure the Covid-19 cases are under control. Else, everything will again slow down and we will be back to the starting line. Let’s wish economy Malaysia all the best.

Happy anticipating.

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Economy Malaysia and its effect on banking stocks.

Your Facebook page will just give you what you like to read yeah

Sometimes I am tired of debating with someone who says that the Malaysian economy is doing very badly. Perhaps there are many reasons for them to say so. Perhaps this person’s friends are all doing very badly and were trying to borrow money from them. I just hope they did not derive that conclusion from their FB page because FB will show you what you like to read because they want you to have higher interactions in FB.

Anyway, here is one sign why I think economy Malaysia is building up steam. It represents the industry because if the business environment is negative, then the working people will suffer and the banks will all be in trouble… Here are some recent articles about how the banks are doing in actual numbers.

Article in themalaysianreserve.com
  Public Bank records 20% increase in net profit for 4Q21.

Article in thestar.com.my
  Maybank posts net profit of RM2.06bil in 4Q, declares 30c div

Article in theedgemarkets.com
   Kenanga Investment Bank to pay 10.5 sen dividend bonanza after record profit in FY21

Article in themalaysianreserve.com
  Malaysian banking sector dividends to increase by 26% YoY in FY21

What happens to all who bought banking stocks earlier?

If they have 1,000 units of Maybank and let’s say they bought it at the closing price on 25th February 2021 which is RM8.88 per unit, then the latest dividend announcement of 30 sen from Maybank meant that their returns just from this 1,000 unit yields them 3.37% returns. This 3.37% is over 60% higher than our paltry 2% return on fixed deposit. This is why some investors focus on buying just dividend stocks.

If the same person bought it end of 2021, Maybank’s share price was RM8.30 per unit. 30 sen dividend based on this price would yield a return of 3.6%.

What happens in the future if dividends continue?

If the dividends continue to be declared every quarter from now onwards, then the holder of these banking stocks will either have yields which are many times higher than the fixed deposit rate or the share price will move upwards so that the yields are lower but then these banking stock holders would thus enjoy capital appreciation if they were to sell those banking stocks.

I have NO IDEA at all whether dividends will continue yeah

If we think the economy will continue to do sufficiently well, then this will be positive for banks. If the demand for cars move upwards, then the car manufacturer stock price will also move up. If a certain developer is able to sell all its new launches, then this will also help its profits in the future and subsequently the stock price. Just need to remember that just because profits are going up does not mean a company will declare dividends yeah.

So, truth is, I have no idea if dividends will continue. If you think so, go ahead and invest into some stocks you believe in. It does not need to be banking stocks. Perhaps a biscuit producer can also be a goo stock to buy especially if everyone you know loves that brand. Investing into a good company may not be as hard we as think. All the best in your choice(s) and all the best to me as well.

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