Planning could hold key to disappearance of Flight MH370

By Siva Govindasamy and Tim Hepher

Reuters

Mar 17, 2014

(Reuters) – Whether by accident or design, whoever reached across the dimly lit cockpit of a Malaysia Airlines jet and clicked off a transponder to make Flight MH370 vanish from controllers’ radars flew into a navigational and technical black hole.

By choosing one place and time to vanish into radar darkness with 238 others on board, the person – presumed to be a pilot or a passenger with advanced knowledge – may have acted only after meticulous planning, according to aviation experts.

Understanding the sequence that led to the unprecedented plane hunt widening across two vast tracts of territory north and south of the Equator is key to grasping the motives of what Malaysian authorities suspect was hijacking or sabotage.

By signing off from Malaysian airspace at 1.19 a.m. on March 8 with a casual “all right, good night,” rather than the crisp radio drill advocated in pilot training, a person now believed to be the co-pilot gave no hint of anything unusual.

Two minutes later, at 1.21 a.m. local time, the transponder – a device identifying jets to ground controllers – was turned off in a move that experts say could reveal a careful sequence.

“Every action taken by the person who was piloting the aircraft appears to be a deliberate one. It is almost like a pilot’s checklist,” said one senior captain from an Asian carrier with experience of jets including the Boeing 777.

There is so far no indication whether the co-pilot was at fault or had anything to do with turning off the transponder. Pilots say the usual industry convention is that the pilot not directly responsible for flying the plane talks on the radio.

Police have searched the premises of both the captain and co-pilot and are checking the backgrounds of all passengers.

Whoever turned the transponder to “off”, whether or not the move was deliberate, did so at a vulnerable point between two airspace sectors when Malaysian and Vietnamese controllers could easily assume the airplane was each others’ responsibility.

“The predictable effect was to delay the raising of the alarm by either party,” David Learmount, operations and safety editor at Flight International, wrote in an industry blog.

That mirrors delays in noticing something was wrong when an Air France jet disappeared over the Atlantic in 2009 with 228 people on board, a gap blamed on confusion between controllers.

Yet whereas the Rio-Paris disaster was later traced to pilot error, the suspected kidnapping of MH370’s passengers and crew was carried out with either skill or bizarre coincidences.

Whether or not pilots knew it, the jet was just then in a technically obscure sweet spot, according to a top radar expert.

Air traffic controllers use secondary radar which works by talking to the transponder. Some air traffic control systems also blend in some primary radar, which uses a simple echo.

But primary radar signals fade faster than secondary ones, meaning even a residual blip would have vanished for controllers and even military radar may have found it difficult to identify the 777 from other ghostly blips, said radar expert Hans Weber.

“Turning off the transponder indicates this person was highly trained,” said Weber, of consultancy TECOP International.

NOT IN THE MANUAL

The overnight flight to Beijing from Kuala Lumpur is packed year-round with business people, Chinese tourists and students, attracted in part by code-sharing deals, regular travelers say.

The lockdown of MH370 may have begun as early as 40 minutes into the flight at a point when meals are being hurriedly served in time to get trays cleared and lights dimmed for the night.

“It was a red-eye flight. Most people – the passengers and the crew – just want to rest,” a Malaysia Airlines stewardess said. “Unless there was a reason to panic, if someone had taken control of the aircraft, they would not have noticed anything.”

At some point between 1.07 a.m. and 1.37 a.m., investigators believe someone switched off another system called ACARS designed to transmit maintenance data back to the ground.

While unusual, this may not necessarily raise alarms at the airline and the passengers would not have known that something was amiss, said some of the six pilots contacted by Reuters, none of whom agreed to be identified because of company rules.

“Occasionally, there are gaps in the communications systems and the guys in ground operations may not think much of it initially. It would be a while before they try to find out what was wrong,” said one captain with an Asian carrier.

Cutting the datalink would not have been easy. Instructions are not in the Flight Crew Operating Manual, one pilot said.

Whoever did so may have had to climb through a trap door in full view of cabin crew, people familiar with the jet say.

Circuit-breakers used to disable the system are in a bay reached through a hatch in the floor next to the lefthand front exit, close to a galley used to prepare meals.

Most pilots said it would be impossible to turn off ACARS from inside the cockpit, though two people did not rule it out.

Malaysia Airlines said 14 minutes elapsed between the last ACARS message and the transponder shutdown that – in the growing view of officials – confirmed a fully loaded jet was on the run. The ACARS must have been disabled within 16 minutes after that.

In the meantime a voice believed to be that of the co-pilot issued the last words from MH370 and the transponder went dead.

HIDING IN FULL VIEW?

The northeast-bound jet now took a northwestern route from Kota Bahru in eastern Malaysia to Penang Island. It was last detected on military radar around 200 miles northwest of Penang.

Even that act of going off course may not have caused alarm at first if it was handled gradually, pilots said.

“Nobody pays attention to these things unless they are aware of the direction that the aircraft was heading in,” said one first officer who has flown with Malaysia Airlines.

The airline said it had reconstructed the event in a simulator to try to figure out how the jet vanished and kept flying for what may have been more than seven hours.

Pilots say whoever was then in control may have kept the radio on in silent mode to hear what was going on around him, but would have avoided restarting the transponder at all costs.

“That would immediately make the aircraft visible … like a bright light. Your registration, height, altitude and speed would all become visible,” said an airline captain.

After casting off its identity, the aircraft set investigators a puzzle that has yet to be solved. It veered either northwards or southwards, within an hour’s flying time of arcs stretching from the Caspian to the southern Indian Ocean.

The best way to avoid the attention of military radars would have been to fly at a fixed altitude, on a recognized flight path and at cruising speed without changing course, pilots say.

Malaysian officials dismissed as speculation reports that the jet may have flown at low altitude to avoid detection.

But pilots said the best chance of feeling its way through the well-defended northern route would have been to hide in full view of military radar inside commercial lanes – raising awkward questions over security in several parts of the Asia-Pacific.

“The military radar controllers would have seen him moving on a fixed line, figured that it was a commercial aircraft at a high altitude, and not really a danger especially if he was on a recognized flight path,” said one pilot.

“Some countries would ask you to identify yourself, but you are flying through the night and that is the time when the least attention is being paid to unidentified aircraft. As long as the aircraft is not flying towards a military target or point, they may not bother with you.”

Although investigators refused on Monday to be drawn into theories, few in the industry believe a 250-tonne passenger jet could run amok globally without expert skills or preparation.

“Whoever did this must have had lots of aircraft knowledge, would have deliberately planned this, had nerves of steel to be confident enough to get through primary radar without being detected and been confident enough to control an aircraft full of people,” a veteran airline captain told Reuters.

(Additional reporting by Edgar Su, Andrea Shalal, Mark Hosenball and Anshuman Daga, Editing by Nick Macfie)

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Southerly route ‘most likely’ for missing MH370, says ex-CIA agent

The Malay Mail Online

March 18, 2014

KUALA LUMPUR, March 18 ― Malaysia Airlines (MAS) flight MH370 would have triggered the military alarms of numerous nations if it had flown a northerly course as some investigators suspect, a former US intelligence agent said.

Mike Morell said the passenger plane carrying 239 people onboard had most likely gone the southern route where it would have better chances of escaping radar detection.

“There are a lot of defence radars up there with China and India and the US and Afghanistan.

“So again, it is most likely the southern route,” the former deputy director of the US Central Investigation Agency (CIA) said in an interview yesterday on US broadcast programme, CBS This Morning.

Investigators have charted two divergent paths for MH370 after the aircraft was last traced to be airborne over the Indian Ocean after making an air turn-back 200 nautical miles off the coast of Kelantan, based on a final “electronic handshake” detected by satellite at 8.11am on March 8.

From the data, investigators used the plane’s available speed range to deduce that it could be in one of two corridors: a northern arc from northern Thailand to the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in central Asia, or a southern one from Indonesia to the southern Indian Ocean.

In the CBS interview, Morell also said the Boeing 777-200 would have faced great difficulty in maintaining an altitude below 5,000 feet needed to to stay off radars, especially if it flying over land.

“I’m not an aviation expert but the 777 pilots I’ve talked with say that would be very, very difficult to do. So again, possible but not likely,” he said in response to reports that the plane could have hidden its trail by adopting a technique known as “terrain masking”.

Several  central Asian nations that lie along the northern corridor have bolstered Morell’s view, saying none of their military radars have picked up signals from any unidentified aircraft encroaching on their airspace.

India had said it last Saturday, followed by Pakistan a day later and yesterday, Kazakhstan and al Qaeda militants, making it unlikely that a jumbo jet had flown off course along a northern route via Thailand.

Malaysian officials have also dismissed as speculation reports that the jet may have flown at low altitude to avoid detection.

But news agency Reuters reported last night that the scenario was not wholly implausible.

Citing several unnamed commercial pilots, Reuters reported that the 250-tonne aircraft could have been hiding in plane view of military radars without triggering any alarm.

“The military radar controllers would have seen him moving on a fixed line, figured that it was a commercial aircraft at a high altitude, and not really a danger especially if he was on a recognised flight path,” one pilot told the international news wire.

Another pilot was quoted saying that defence scouts manning a country’s borders were least likely to pay attention to a plane if it were on the red-eye flight and steered clear of any military target point.

Ten days after MH370 fell off civilian radar,  the mystery of its whereabouts and the motives for its disappearance remain no closer to being resolved.

Malaysian authorities have steadfastly resisted calling the incident a hijack, without a clear terror link or ransom note received for the lives of the 227 passengers of its 12 crew onboard.

Putrajaya’s silence in the face of concrete developments however, have fuelled speculation that one of the two MH370 pilots could have deliberately turned off the plane’s transponder ― which relays information about its location, altitude and speed ― as he plotted a suicide mission.

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US ship withdraws from search for missing flight MH370

The Malaysian Insider

March 18, 2014

A US naval ship that has been aiding the international search for the missing Malaysia Airlines MH370 airplane will be withdrawn from the effort, Pentagon officials said yesterday.

The decision was taken because the search area was now so extensive that it was more efficient to look for the jet using surveillance aircraft, officials said.

The guided missile destroyer, the USS Kidd, had joined the massive search last week and had shifted its focus west to the Andaman Sea on the request of the Malaysian government.

The Kidd, with a MH-60 helicopter on board, had completed a search of 15,000 square miles but “no debris or wreckage associated with an aircraft was found,” it said.

At one point both the Kidd and another US destroyer were taking part in the search but now the US navy planned to rely on a P-8 Poseidon plane and a P-3 Orion aircraft for the effort, officials said.

“With the search area expanding into the southern Indian Ocean, long range patrol aircraft such as the P-8A Poseidon and P-3C Orion are more suited to the current SAR (search and rescue) mission,” the US Pacific Fleet said in a statement.

After taking off from Kuala Lumpur headed to Beijing, Malaysia Airlines flight 370 disappeared on March 8 with 239 people on board, triggering a massive international search across Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean. – AFP, March 18, 2014.

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Were the Phones on Flight MH370 Ever Connected?

By Lance Ulanoff

18.3.2014

It’s been more than a week since Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, flying out of Malaysia and bound for Beijing, China, disappeared. The search for the plane, now part of a criminal investigation, spans thousands and thousands of miles. With the missing Boeing 777 are 239 souls, their fate unknown and the possibilities heart-wrenching.

The desperation for resolution is so keen that the idea that technology could somehow, even now, reconnect the lost with their loved ones is seized upon -– only to be debunked by clearer heads.

Technology is so often the solution that it’s hard to imagine it could fail us so completely. So we soldier on with new theories.

Were they pinging?

It’s estimated that one in five people around the world now owns a smartphone. By that measure, we can safely assume that roughly 50 people on that flight were carrying data-capable smartphones. Add in feature phones, and the number of mobile devices on MH370 probably grows significantly.

A recent Consumer Electronics Association Study reported that 30% of flyers forget to power-down their devices during take-off and landing. So it’s fair to assume that at least some small percentage of flight MH370 passengers may have had their phones on for the duration of the flight. It’s also possible that others powered up their phones when the plane diverted course.

Which leads to the possibility that cellphones onboard flight MH370 were pinging cell towers (looking for a network signal) on the ground.

Experts, however, are less certain.

The limits of cell tower technology

It’s true, smartphones in the air can connect with cell towers on the ground. These towers, depending on technology (GSM, CDMA), have a range of connectivity that goes up to miles. GSM tops out at about 21 miles. Plus, it only takes one tower to achieve connectivity.

Of course, when you’re flying on an airplane, said tech and wireless analyst Jeff Kagan, “you’re connecting from cell tower, to cell tower, to cell tower very quickly,” and that’s assuming you’re flying relatively low and over densely populated cities.

Flight MH370 was apparently cruising at 35,000 when it disappeared. That’s more than double what Kagan sees as a workable range for cell-tower connectivity.

Let’s say, though, for the sake of argument, that the plane was, as some have reported, flying at 5,000 feet in an effort to avoid radar detection. That’s well within connectivity rage.

However, if you look at the embedded ESRI map, you’ll note that the population densities for most of MH370’s flight path are relatively low. This is critical because the cell providers that operate in those areas, China Mobile and Celcom, would naturally add more towers in densely populated areas, where the bandwidth needs are greatest, and, probably, worry less about cell coverage for largely uninhabited areas.

Then there’s the water.

Much of flight MH370’s journey may have been over water. As far as Kagan, who’s been tracking the industry for 30 years, knows, no cell company is currently dotting the seas with cell towers.

Kagan, though, isn’t willing to say that a random ping or connectivity wasn’t achieved at some point. “I’m not going to say there was never any connection, because I don’t know where it was flying or how high it was flying.”

What about 9/11?

13 years ago, a series of desperate phone calls helped paint the shocking picture of the last moments of the passengers and crews of the three 9/11 hijacked airplanes. A number of those calls were apparently made with cellphones, even though some of them may have been conducted at altitudes that are technically impossible.

The 9/11 investigation site Consensus911.org points out both the conflicting evidence and reports, but fails to reach much of a conclusion.

If you believe the initial report that some 9/11 calls to the ground were conducted while the airplanes were above 35,000 feet, then it’s plausible that flight MH370 passengers who had working cellphones could have reached ground-based cell-towers at almost any point and almost any altitude.

Up to this point, however, not a single piece of communication from MH370 has emerged.

Other connection options

If cell service failed the passengers, what about GPS? Unfortunately, GPS is not a two-way communication system. The GPS chip in your phone communicates with satellites, each of which tells you where it is, so your phone can figure out — based on how long it takes the signals to travel back and forth between your phone and the satellites — where it is. The satellite knows nothing about you or where you are.

Cellphone towers can, too, be used to triangulate your position, but considering how fast a plane flies (at least 600 mph), the likelihood that you’d be able to find a cluster of cell towers and hold onto their signal for more than a millisecond is minimal.

Inside the plane

Even if not a single passenger had an active cellphone or was able to pick up a cell signal, the plane’s first class may have been equipped with a rudimentary air-to-ground communication system. According to Malaysia Airline’s Business Class page, the in-seat entertainment systems include air-to-ground phones that also let passengers send and receive emails “midflight.” Thus far, we have yet to see or hear of a single inflight message from the missing jet, which could mean this flight was not equipped with the Business Class system.

Passengers and social

Finding social interactions before or (far less likely) during the flight is made more difficult because the majority of the passengers are Chinese and use Chinese language-only social networks like Weibo.

At press time, only a handful of pre-flight social media interactions have emerged. The Straits Times reported one passenger, Zhang Jianwu, 31, posted this reply to a query about his location on Weibo, China’s Twitter-like social media platform, “You guess?” wrote Zhang.

Shortly before the flight, according to Fz.com, 26-year-old passenger Yue Wen Chao posted a picture of his girlfriend and this note, “See you in Beijing.”

It’s hard to believe that not one of the 239 passengers and crew members had the ability, time or wherewithal to get out a single message or that even one not-in-airplane-mode phone or tablet didn’t ping a single cell tower. Yet, as Kagan notes, we have trouble imagining a disconnected world, when that still, by and large, is the reality of international flight. According to a 2013 report by travel data company RouteHappy, just 6.5% of international flights have Wi-Fi. Contrast that with U.S. domestic, where 38% of the flights are ready to connect you to the Internet.

“In 2104, we think we’re always connected,” said Kagan, “it’s the world we live in, but when you’re flying in a plane you’re not connected to that world.”

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What MH370 hijacking theories can’t explain

By Adam Taylor

Washington Post

March 17 2014

With so few clues in the case of Malaysia Airlines MH370, the theories surrounding the missing plane are taking on a life of their own. One widespread idea is that the plane may have flown to Central Asia somewhere, flying low to avoid the radar of multiple states (or simply exposing their radar systems’ weakness). This theory, explained
very well by Jeff Wise over at Slate
, uses satellite data that appears to indicate that the plane was heading north at 8:10 a.m. Malaysia time  March 8, and could probably have ended up in Western China or somewhere nearby.

There’s one very obvious reason this idea is enticing: It allows the possibility that the 239 passengers and crew on board the plane could be alive. Few other theories, such as a terrorist attack, a pilot suicide or some kind of mechanical failure with the plane offer much hope there. It also seems to assume that that the plane was hijacked by crew or passengers.

It doesn’t explain, however, the one thing that most high-profile hijackings, from the 1970s to the 2001 attacks on New York and Washington, have in common: Everyone knew what happened to the plane.

For example, think of the Dawson’s Field hijackings in 1970. In that incident, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine hijacked four planes, three bound for New York City and one for London, on Sept. 6, 1970. Two were flown to Dawson’s Field in Jordan, a former British air force base now rebranded a “revolutionary airport,” where they kept the passengers hostage, and when one attempted hijacking was foiled, members of the PFLP hijacked another plane and flew it to Beirut and then Cairo, where they eventually blew up the planes after evacuating everyone. A fifth plane was hijacked by a PFLP sympathizer a few days after the others and also flown to Dawson’s Field.

The Dawson’s Field hijackings were designed to be high-profile: Members of the media drove out to the Jordanian desert to attend “press conferences,” and photographs from the scene show camels wandering past the hijacked jets. All non-Jewish passengers were released Sept. 11, and while the planes at Dawson’s Field were blown up the next day, the remaining prisoners were eventually released a few weeks later. The only person who died was a member of the PFLP.

Dawson’s Field was one of the most brazen hijacking events in an era of high-profile hijackings – it came a little over a year after January 1969, when eight planes flying to Cuba were hijacked in one month, according to the Wall Street Journal. It was a short-lived era, however, as the gradual implementation of armed air marshals and other security measures led to a steep decline in the number of hijackings; the PFLP had almost entirely given up hijacking as a tactic within just a few years.

It wasn’t until September 11, 2001, that a new era of air industry terrorism was ushered in. Until that date, the FAA had approved a tactic (known as “Common Strategy”) for dealing with hijackings which was essentially: Talk with the hijackers, land the plane safely  and let law enforcement deal with the demands of the hijackers. The goal was to get everyone off the plane alive. The attacks of 9/11 proved that this technique was ineffective when the hijackers’ plans involve destroying the plane: Passengers were no longer a bargaining chip for the hijackers to hold and threaten (and in worst-case scenarios, kill), they were now individuals whose inevitable death could be used to shock, hurt and terrorize. New measures, such as armored doors on cockpits, were put in place.

Click here for more information!

The nature of hijacking has changed, but one thing hasn’t: The need for publicity. The Dawson’s Field hijackings were designed to be high-profile, and the hijackers had specific demands that they made known (largely the release of a number of Palestinian prisoners in Europe and the Middle East). Seven days after the hijacking, the world not only knew these demands, but were watching the hijackers blow up the planes on the evening news. Likewise, 9/11-style hijackings are, by definition, designed to be public events.

It’s now been nine days since MH370 disappeared, and not only have we not heard any demands from anyone, but it seems that terrorist organizations seem to be going out of their way to say they didn’t do it (“We wish we had an opportunity to hijack such a plane,” one Pakistani Taliban commander told Reuters). So far, few theories can explain that.

Adam Taylor writes about foreign affairs for the Washington Post. Originally from London, he studied at the University of Manchester and Columbia University.

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Implausible MH370 defeated all radar shields, defence sources say

The Malay Mail Online

March 19, 2014

KUALA LUMPUR, March 19 — The person flying Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 on a northern trajectory would need pinpoint precision to have any chance of foiling an extensive network of radars operated by heavily-militarised countries in the region, according to US defence personnel.

Speaking to the New York Times, they noted the area that is home to India, China and Pakistan — all of whom have nuclear weapon capabilities and not all of whom are on good terms — who watch their airspace meticulously.

The northern corridor is one of two that investigators have calculated the plane — now missing for more than 10 days could — could have taken. It ranges from the borders of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to the northern edge of Thailand.

“I wouldn’t be looking through China and that northern route,” Sean O’Connor, a former intelligence analyst for the US Air Force told the NYT.

“It is not out of the realm of possibility that you could pull this off, but everything would have to go your way,” said O’Connor.

The northern corridor would have put MH370 in the vicinity of air bases such as the Bagram Airfield in Afghanistan, where the US Air Force’s 455th Air Expeditionary Wing is based, and a large Indian air base, Hindon Air Force Station.

China also operates a wide array of radar stations near the Himalayas, where defence analysts note it stores many of its nuclear-capable missiles.

Despite the implausibility of the plane the size of the Boeing 777-200ER going unseen by so many military radar operators, investigators are not ready to rule out the chance.

Chief among the motivation is the revelation that the Royal Malaysian Air Force did not respond to an unidentified radar plot when it flew across peninsular Malaysia, leaving open the possibility that others may have been equally lax.

In a Reuters report, analysts said the gaps in Southeast Asia’s air defences are likely to be mirrored in other parts of the developing world, and may be much greater in areas with considerably lower geopolitical tensions.

“Several nations will be embarrassed by how easy it is to trespass their airspace,” said Air Vice Marshal Michael Harwood, a retired British Royal Air Force pilot and ex-defence attaché to Washington DC.

“Too many movies and Predator (unmanned military drone) feeds from Afghanistan have suckered people into thinking we know everything and see everything. You get what you pay for. And the world, by and large, does not pay.”

Indian military sources concede that their radar capability in the Andaman Islands, in the Indian Ocean where MH370 may have flown over, was less watchful as it was not a “tense area”.

But India is adamant that MH370, if it continued flying in that direction, never entered the country’s airspace undetected.

“There is no way or the slightest possibility of our radars’ having missed the plane,” the military source said in the NYT report.

“We do not have an open air policy. Any blip, the slightest, has to be given attention. Most of our radars are semi-automated. If there is any aircraft not identified by virtue of its registration or identification, there will be an instant reaction at our end.”

MH370 deviated from its flight path to Beijing on March 8 through what Malaysian investigators conclude to be “deliberate action”. No sign of the plane and its 239 passengers have been found despite a search operation that now includes 26 countries.

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Hishammuddin should not have dishonoured Parliament by causing a parliamentary crack on the MH370 crisis when he should have presented a united national front in world’s largest-ever multi-national air-sea SAR

The Acting Transport Minister, Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein should not have dishonoured Parliament by causing a parliamentary crack on the MH370 crisis when he should have presented a united national front in the world’s largest-ever 26-nation multi-national air-sea search-and-rescue (SAR) operation for the missing Malaysian Airlines aircraft with 239 passengers and crew on board.

Over a hundred ships, helicopters and aircrafts as well as radar systems  from 26 nations are involved in a SAR mission scouring two vast tracts of territories  totaling 2.24 million sq nautical miles (about 7.68 million square kilometres) stretching from the southern Indian Ocean to Kazakhstan in the north to find the missing MH370 Boeing 777-200 aircraft.

The world’s largest-ever multi-national air-sea SAR, entering the 12th day after over 250 hours without any clue on the whereabouts of the aircraft or what happened on March 8,  is in a race  against time as there are only 18 days left for the search teams to locate the aircraft’s black box, the most important piece of aviation technology, as it will only transmit a signal for 30 days.

When Malaysia expects unprecedented international unity in the world’s largest-ever multi-national SAR operation, Malaysians and in particular the Malaysian Parliament must demonstrate unprecedented national unity in support of the SAR mission for the missing aircraft and not to present any parliamentary crack, division or disunity to the world on this issue.

Unfortunately, this is what Hishammuddin did when he held a “For Barisan Nasional MPs” briefing on the missing MH370 at Aloft Kuala Lumpur Sentral BallRoom last night – completely unmindful of the undesirable, unfortunate and untrue message he is beaming to the world that the Malaysian Parliament is divided into two camps on the MH370 SAR mission!

It is not that Hishammuddin had not been forewarned beforehand that he should not  be partisan and give a “For BN MPs only” briefing, when he should be giving a briefing – in fact regular briefings – to all Malaysian MPs!

Hishammuddin himself knows that what he had done was both wrong and improper which is why he had come out with the lame excuse that Pakatan Rakyat MPs had not asked for a briefing – when he should know that both BN and PR MPs have spoken up about their concerns for the fate of the 239 passengers and crew onboard MH370.

In fact, Pakatan Rakyat through PAS MP for Pokok Sena Mahfuz Omar had even sought to have an urgent parliamentary debate on the MH370 crisis last week under Dewan Rakyat Standing Order 18(1) but this was not allowed.

Invitations for the MH370 “For BN MPs only” briefing at the Aloft Kuala Lumpur Sentral Ballroom was sent out in the name of the Acting Transport Minister, Datuk Hishammuddin Hussein – raising the question whether this was a BNBBC event or an official Transport Ministry function.

What are the  costs of the event at the post hotel, Aloft Kuala Lumpur Sentral Ballroom, and was it borne by the taxpayers through the Transport Ministry or by the BNBBC?

Why wasn’t the briefing, even “For BN MPs only” held in Parliament House, which would not have incurred the exorbitant costs of holding it in a post hotel like Aloft Kuala Lumpur Sentral Ballroom – which must have “cost a bomb”?

BN Beluran MP and Deputy Speaker Ronald Kiandee is quoted as saying that Hishammuddin said nothing extra at the briefing as “Everything said at the daily briefings was repeated last night. There was nothing new or special instructions given.”

Hishammuddin admitted as much after the Aloft “briefing” saying that he had only updated the BNBBC on the timeline of the events and had not shared confidential information beyond what the investigation team could divulge.

He said such information BN backbenchers received had also been released to the public.

If Hishammuddin had not revealed anything new at the “For BN MPs only” briefing, and only recycled information which had already been made public, what is the use of such a briefing for BN MPs?

If the Aloft “dinner briefing” is basically only a social event, why should the Department of Civil Aviations director-general Azharuddin Abdul Rahman, the MAS CEO Ahmad Jauhari Yahya and top generals  from the Royal Malaysian Armed Forces be dragged to attend such social functions of BNBBC when their time should be very precious and critical  in the 11th day of the world’s largest-ever multi-national air-sea SAR mission to locate MH370 and to save the 239 passengers and crew onboard?

In giving a briefing on MH370 crisis which is confined only to BN MPs only, and which is only a rehash what had already been announced at the MH370 crisis daily media conferences without anything new or extra, and tying down important officials from the DAC, Armed Forces and MAS in the SAR operation in the BNBBC social dinner, Hishammuddin has got his priorities all wrong.

I for one would not want to attend any briefing by Hishammuddin which is a rehash of what he and others had already publicly announced.

Hishammuddin should provide the government leadership in Parliament to enable all MPs, whether BN or PR, to play their role not only in giving full support to the SAR mission, but even more important, to subsequently conduct full investigations into the MH 370 tragedy so as to  provide answers to the multitude of queries arising from numerous controversies and confusions surrounding the MH 370 crisis.

In my speech in Parliament last Thursday, I had suggested the   immediate formation of a Parliamentary Select Committee on Disasters to give full support to MH 370 “search and rescue” operation and to  hold itself in readiness to conduct investigations after SAR ops to address all queries on the MH 370 tragedy.

Is Hishammuddin prepared to provide government leadership in Parliament and support the establishment of such a Parliamentary Select Committee, including supporting an amendment to the Motion of Thanks on the Royal Address currently being debated in the House for the establishment of such a Parliamentary Select Committee?

(Media Statement in Parliament on Wednesday, 19th March 2014)

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Malaysia Flight MH370: 5 Likeliest Possibilities

by Stephanie Pappas

LiveScience

Mar 18, 2014

Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has been missing since Saturday, March 8, and every new piece of information seems to shroud the flight’s disappearance in more mystery.

Malaysian investigators now say deliberate action was taken to turn off communications systems and steer the aircraft far off course. “Pings” sent from the plane to a commercial satellite hours after MH370 disappeared suggest either a northern or southern route of flight, creating a search area that stretches from Kazakhstan into western China or from Indonesia into the southern Indian Ocean.

The mystery has spawned dozens of theories from experts and armchair analysts alike, all with varying degrees of credibility. Going on the information made public so far, there are only a few theories that fit — though none satisfactorily. Here are the remaining likely possibilities for flight MH370.

1. Pilot suicide

MH370’s transponder and its Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) were both turned off shortly after the plane took off at 12:41 a.m. local time. There was a 14-minute gap between the last transmission of the ACARS and the last signal from the transponder, suggesting these systems were not destroyed by a sudden emergency.

Furthermore a voice, thought to be the plane’s co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid, spoke to air traffic control in Malaysia after the ACARS turned off and just before the transponder turned off. The final message from the lost plane was a calm, “All right, good night.” (Update at 7:59 a.m. ET on March 18: This timing is now in question, as Malaysian authorities now say they are unsure exactly when the ACARS switched off, but it was between 1:07 a.m. and 1:37 a.m.)

The plane then turned from its Beijing-bound route. A military satellite detected it west of the Malaysian peninsula at 2:15 a.m. local time.

“Based on the details surfaced so far, it seems to have been a very well-planned and performed operation,” said David Cenciotti, a former Italian Air Force pilot and journalist, who blogs at TheAviationist.com.

The expertise required to conduct these maneuvers has investigators looking into the pilot and co-pilot, Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah, 53, and 1st Officer Fariq Ab Hamid, 27.

Theoretically, one of these men could have decided to commit suicide by airplane. Pilot suicide would be highly unusual, but not unprecedented. For example, U.S. investigators concluded that a 1999 crash near Nantucket, which killed all 217 people onboard EgyptAir Flight 990, was the result of the co-pilot deliberately flying the plane into the sea (Egyptian investigators dispute that finding).

Similarly, SilkAir Flight 185, which crashed in Sumatra in 1997, may have been a pilot suicide. There were no mechanical failures to explain why the plane went into a vertical dive, the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board concluded. The plane’s trajectory could be explained by the captain’s deliberate action, however.

Something similar could have happened to Flight 370. But the explanation seems strange: Other pilots who have committed suicide-by-plane have aimed the nose at the ground and ended it quickly. MH370 flew for hours after contact was lost.

“Why would you take 200 other people with you, a logical individual would want to know?” said Gregory “Sid” McGuirk, a professor of air traffic control at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.

2. Pilot conspiracy

Another theory holds that the pilots, or one of them, deliberately rerouted the plane for other reasons. This theory banks on the technical knowledge needed to change the plane’s flight path, as well as suspicious circumstances around the flight’s timing.

Turning off the transponder and ACARS in the cockpit is as easy as flipping a switch and turning off a breaker, McGuirk told Live Science. The transponder, however, reportedly went off just as the plane was being handed off from Malaysian air traffic control to Vietnamese air traffic control.

Radar only has a radius of 150 to 200 miles (240 to 320 kilometers), McGuirk said. Over the continental United States, radar overlaps so there are no gaps. Over the ocean, however, there can be no ground-based antennas. Some countries, including India, also have gaps in their radar coverage, McGuirk said.

“If that’s the case, then somebody knew exactly where the radar coverage gap was and decided to act at that moment,” McGuirk said. “That’s kind of far-fetched.”

Still, the actions of the plane after the communications were turned off look deliberate, Cenciotti said. Programming the plane toward the navigational waypoints it appeared to be following wouldn’t take too much expertise, he told Live Science. But the fact that the waypoints were so close to the edge of the Malaysian airspace boundary suggests they were deliberately chosen to obscure the plane’s path.

“The farther to the radar, the harder to positively identify a so-called non-cooperative aircraft,” Cenciotti said.

If one or both of the pilots did decide to reroute the plane, the motive they would have for doing so is unclear. Shah reportedly had strong political views and an at-home flight simulator; however, strong views do not necessarily suggest terrorism, and many pilots practice or play with flight simulators at home.

3. Terrorists Take Down Plane

The pilots also may have been forced by terrorists aboard the plane to disconnect the communications and change course, before crashing somewhere. Alternatively, whoever commandeered the plane could have been an expert in aircraft and flown it themselves.

Authorities have not ruled out terrorism as a cause; no groups have come forward to claim responsibility or make demands, however. Sometimes terrorist groups do stay mum. For example, when Pan Am Flight 103 was destroyed by a bomb over Lockerbie, Scotland, investigators spent three years before issuing arrest warrants for two Libyan men. In fact, it wasn’t until 2003 that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi admitted the country’s role in the bombing.

4. Terrorists stash the plane

One possible explanation for why a terrorist group wouldn’t claim responsibility for a hijacking: They plan to use the plane later.

The plane’s northerly route may have taken it over remote areas where a Boeing 777 could potentially land — but landing a plane of that size without a functional runway would be difficult, particularly if the plane needs to fly again.

“It’s very difficult to steal a 777 with Malaysian markings,” McGuirk said. “It needs a 10,000-foot runway, so where are you going to put it down?”

Not to mention the eyebrows that would raise at a Malaysian airliner showing up where it shouldn’t, McGuirk added.

If the plane flew north, which would give it a better chance of landing, it would have to fly over populated regions, making detection more likely. One far-out but not-impossible way to evade detection might be to “shadow” another plane, flying close so that both appeared to be the same object.

“It would be quite a difficult maneuver,” Cenciotti said. “Let’s not forget the entire maneuver, if performed, was performed at night, with no help from ground radars: Estimating reciprocal speeds, distances, altitudes based only on navigational lights is difficult. Maybe too much.”

Beyond 9/11, there is precedent for the idea of stealing a plane for use in a later attack: In 1959, Brazilian Air Force officers hijacked a prop plane with 44 people aboard and landed it in southwest Brazil. They planned to use the plane in a bombing of Rio de Janeiro, but the plan fizzled and all hostages made it out of the ordeal alive. In 1994, Federal Express employee Auburn Calloway attempted to highjack a FedEx cargo jet for use in a suicide attack against the company’s headquarters. The crew managed to overcome Calloway despite severe injuries.

Another plane, a Boeing 727-223, was driven off a runway in Angola in 2003. Aircraft mechanic Ben Charles Padilla and his employee John Mikel Mutantu were on the plane at the time, but it’s not known whether they flew off in the aircraft or whether someone else killed them or took them hostage. The plane never reappeared, and the FBI closed the case in 2005.

5. Hijacking Gone Wrong

MH370’s disappearance could also be linked to a hijacking gone wrong. In 1996, Ethiopian Airlines Flight 961 crashed in the Indian Ocean after hijackers demanded it be flown to Australia. The plane only had enough fuel to make it to its destination in Nairobi, but the hijackers refused to believe the pilots.

The pilots first tried to stay near the African coast, knowing they could never make it to Australia. When the hijackers insisted they steer east, pilot Leul Abate instead flew toward the Comoro Islands off the east coast of Africa. There, as the plane ran out of fuel, the pilots tried for an emergency landing at the airport on Grande Comore, but an attack by the hijackers forced them to ditch in shallow water. All but 50 passengers died.

Something similar could have happened on Flight MH370. Perhaps hijackers forced the crew to turn back toward Malaysia as part of a 9/11-like attack. If the crew fought back and all aboard ended up incapacitated, the plane could have continued flying on autopilot until it ran out of fuel.

All of these scenarios are speculative. “It all comes down to, ‘What’s the motivation?'” said McGuirk, adding that there are more questions than answers at this point.

“I’ve never seen a situation like this, where none of the theories seem to fit,” he said.

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Malaysia jetliner mystery obsesses aero industry, just what to do unclear

The Malaysian Insider/Reuters

March 19, 2014

The global aviation industry is reverberating with shock as well as a range of theories over the fate of the missing Malaysia Airlines MH370 jet, but most in the business think the unsolved mystery is more of a tragic red herring than a wake-up call for drastic changes.

Despite the lack of new information, flight MH370 was at the top of the agenda on the street, at the pubs and in private meetings this week at the International Society of Transport Air Trading in San Diego, the annual gathering of 1,600 airplane makers, buyers and lessors.

“The people that I deal with are looking at this with great concern – it appears considerable efforts may have gone into cloaking the aircraft,” said Robert Agnew, chief executive of aviation consultant Morten Beyer & Agnew, referring to reports that the plane’s primary means of communicating with air traffic control were intentionally disabled.

“We are speculating on what was actually done in the cockpit. If this is a planned terrorist activity, could others know the process and copy it?” he said.

Investigators are convinced that someone with deep knowledge of the Boeing Co 777-200ER aircraft and commercial navigation diverted the jet early last Saturday, carrying 12 crew and 227 passengers, perhaps thousands of miles off course.

But no physical evidence of the aircraft has been found and authorities have failed to pinpoint any passengers with a known political or criminal motive to crash or hijack the plane.

“The disappearance of MH370 has been a topic of private conversation here,” said Philip Baggaley, an analyst at Standard & Poor’s, attending the key annual gathering for the U$110 billion (RM360 billion) a year aircraft leasing business, which has helped fuel massive recent growth in aircraft purchases, especially in Asia.

Baggaley said the consensus is that someone in the crew or among the passengers with close knowledge of how to disable communications systems took the plane over.

“They mostly guess that it crashed in the Indian Ocean, rather than landed safely at a new destination, because the plane probably would have been picked up by military or other radars if it flew over land,” he said.

There are some holdouts. One aviation consultant, who asked not to be named, was adamant that Asian militaries know more about the missing plane than they have acknowledged.

“I find it hard to believe the military intelligence in the region doesn’t know where that plane is,” the consultant said. Those countries all spy on each other.”

The theory that the plane may be safe on some remote island and possibly being repurposed for some kind of attack was generally not given much weight.

But given the lack of hard information or evidence to study, some said it was too early to know if the Malaysia mystery will spark a revamp in industry safety or communications technology.

“Potentially yes,” said Steven Udvar-Hazy, CEO of Air Lease Corp and the man who is credited with effectively inventing the modern aircraft leasing business. “Let’s wait to see how this tragedy unfolds.”

There have already been calls for airlines to introduce permanently switched-on Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), the equipment that automatically transmits data from a plane to the ground via radio or satellite, to ensure that an aircraft’s location is always known.

But that idea was rejected by a top executive of a large aircraft leasing firm due to basic safety concerns with electronics, which may have to be shut down in an emergency.

“What do you do when it starts smoking?,” he asked.

John Plueger, who works with Udvar-Hazy as chief operating officer of Air Lease Corp, did not expect a major re-evaluation of industry practices.

“It’s a tragic development and I hope we never see it again, but I don’t think in and of itself it causes any major changes,” he said. “At the end of the day, if someone has an intent to do something, they will find a way to do it, no matter what the systems are.”

Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at aerospace consultant Teal Group, agreed that some lapses in security were inevitable, but ultimately never fatal to the aviation industry.

“There are bad guys out there, they will find a way, every few years, to get through our defenses,” said Aboulafia, who was not attending the ISTAT conference. “It’s important to remember that we have an air travel system that’s the safest way to travel ever created and it’s getting safer each year. There has been no long-term impact on air travel demand from any act of terror.” – Reuters, March 19, 2014.

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Pilot may have tried to save plane, heading to Langkawi airport due to emergency

The Malaysian Insider

March 18, 2014

After more than 10 days and numerous theories as to the whereabouts of Malaysia Airlines (MAS) flight MH370, the Business Insider has reported of an alternative theory proposed by a former pilot, which has emerged as a very plausible cause for the disappearance of the aircraft.

A few days ago, American Chris Goodfellow had written his simple case on his Google+ page on what he believed happened to the missing aircraft.

Goodfellow had based his theory on the key information of the turn back move shortly after the aircraft had left Malaysian airspace off the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia.

His theory suggests that all relevant officials, investigators and the international media are overthinking the incident behind the disappearance of flight MH370.

Based on Goodfellow’s theory, the following is what could have transpired on board the aircraft, and more specifically in the cockpit:

*Shortly after takeoff, as MAS flight MH370 was flying out over the South China Sea, smoke began filling the cockpit, perhaps from a tyre on the front landing gear that had ignited on take-off.

    *The captain immediately did exactly what he had been trained to do, that is to find the closest airport and turn the plane toward it so he could land.

    *The closest appropriate airport was in Pulau Langkawi, as it had a massive 13,000-foot runway that could cater for the Boeing 777-200. The pilot was likely to have known that beforehand, as any experienced pilot with more than 18,000 flying hours under his belt would.

    *The captain programmed the destination into the flight computer. The auto-pilot turned the plane west and put it on a course right for the runway.

    *The pilot did not consider returning to Kuala Lumpur International Airport because the plane would have to cross over a mountain range in between. He knew the terrain to Langkawi would be friendlier and also a shorter distance to cover.

    *The captain and co-pilot tried to find the source of the smoke and fire, but it soon filled the cockpit and overwhelmed them (a tyre fire would do this).

    *Such a fire could also short-circuit the cockpit systems one by one, including the transponder. Quite possibly, both pilots had passed out or died by then.

    *With no one awake to instruct the auto-pilot to land, the plane kept flying on its last programmed course… right over Pulau Langkawi and out over the Indian Ocean.

    *Eventually, six or seven hours after the incident, it ran out of fuel and crashed.

    This pilot was a hero struggling with an impossible situation trying to get that plane to Langkawi. No doubt in my mind. That’s the reason for the turn and direct route.

Goodfellow further elaborated that Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah did all the right things.

“He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make that immediate turn back to the closest safe airport.

“For me the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense if in the event of a fire, and especially an electrical fire. The first response is to pull all the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one.

“However, if they pulled the busses, the plane indeed would go silent. It was probably a serious event and they simply were occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire.

“Aviate, navigate and lastly communicate,” Goodfellow wrote on the priority that is set for pilots to follow in the event of any emergency.

According to Goodfellow’s theory, one possibility, given the timeline on how the fire started and then spread is that perhaps there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires and it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. This could happen with under-inflated tires.

He added: “This pilot was a hero struggling with an impossible situation trying to get that plane to Langkawi. No doubt in my mind. That’s the reason for the turn and direct route.

“A hijack would not have made that deliberate left turn with a direct heading for Langkawi. It would probably have weaved around a bit until the hijackers decided on where they were taking it.

“Surprisingly none of the reporters, officials and other pilots interviewed have looked at this from the pilot’s viewpoint. If something went wrong where would he go? Thanks to Google Earth, I spotted Langkawi in about 30 seconds, zoomed in and saw how long the runway was and I just instinctively knew this pilot knew this airport.

“He had probably flown there many times. Also, another good clue would be the age and number of cycles on those nose tyres.”

According to Business Insider this theory fits the facts and makes sense, most especially because it explains the manual course change as well as the “pings” that a satellite kept hearing from the plane hours after the communications systems went down. – March 18, 2014.

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Scrutiny of MH370 pilots reveals picture of normality

The Malaysian Insider/Reuters

March 18, 2014

One is a technical wizard whose affable manner made him a favourite of trainee pilots; the other an enthusiastic young aviator planning to marry his sweetheart.

The captain and co-pilot of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 are now at the centre of a baffling paradox: as circumstantial evidence mounts that at least one of them may have been involved in the plane’s disappearance on March 8, accounts of their lives portray them as sociable, well-balanced and happy.

Described as devoted to their families and communities, neither fits the profile of a loner or extremist who might have a motive for suicide, hijacking or terrorism.

International media scrutiny and investigations by the Malaysian police have failed to turn up red flags on either the captain, 53-year-old grandfather Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah, or the co-pilot, 27-year old Fariq Abdul Hamid.

Both live in well-to-do neighbourhoods in Shah Alam, an area west of Kuala Lumpur that is popular among flight crews for its proximity to the international airport.

Today, security guards prevented reporters from entering Zaharie’s upscale gated residence. About 10 minutes’ drive away, Fariq’s house stood empty, with an unread newspaper lying outside.

Family and friends say there is nothing in their personalities or past to suggest they would have committed foul play.

“I’ve never seen him lose his temper. It’s difficult to believe any of the speculation made against him,” said Peter Chong, a friend of Zaharie, describing him as highly disciplined and conscientious.

Eleven days after the Boeing 777 jetliner carrying 239 people vanished without trace, scrutiny has zeroed in on the pilots due to the deliberate way in which the plane was switched into radar darkness and diverted far from its route to Beijing.

The person who chose that exact time and place to vanish appears to have acted only after meticulous planning and must have had advanced aviation knowledge, according to experts.

“It raises so many questions, not least that you have got to be prepared to believe that a pilot would do this,” said Paul Hayes, a leading air safety expert at UK-based consultancy, Flightglobal Ascend.

“But it is hard to understand the motive. In cases where pilot suicide was thought to be the cause, the alleged suicide pilots executed the plan as soon as they were in a position to do so.”

A handyman with political passions

Peter Chong holds a smartphone displaying a picture of himself with missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah at a hotel in Sepang today. – Reuters pic.Peter Chong holds a smartphone displaying a picture of himself with missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah (right) at a hotel in Sepang today. – Reuters pic.Lacking other explanations, focus has turned to what would otherwise be seen as innocent passions in Zaharie’s life – a desire to vote out Malaysia’s long-ruling government, and an extreme enthusiasm for flying planes and fixing gadgets.

Zaharie, a balding father of three who likes to cook, appears to have undergone a social-media awakening in early 2013 when he began posting video of himself on YouTube, dispensing tips on how to fix refrigerators and tweak air conditioners.

After signing up to YouTube in January last year, the man described by friends as a moderate Muslim watched clips on God and atheism and speeches by Malaysian opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. He joined Anwar’s party the same month, and helped campaign for elections in May 2013 that were narrowly won by the ruling coalition and afterwards disputed by the opposition.

“There is a rebel in each and everyone of us… let it out!” Zaharie wrote on Facebook in the weeks after the election as Anwar led nationwide rallies to challenge the result.

About six hours before Flight MH370 took off, Anwar was convicted and sentenced to five years’ jail for sodomy, a ruling widely condemned as politically motivated.

That has sparked speculation that Zaharie, perhaps enraged by the setback for his political idol, could have brought down the plane as a form of protest or out of despair.

But his passion to see Malaysia’s first change of government in 56 years was shared by millions in the country and the opposition is a democratic movement with no links to extremist groups.

There is no evidence he attended Anwar’s trial, as some media reported. He still lived with his wife, despite other reports they were breaking up.

“He was a disciplined person,” said Chong, who said he first met Zaharie two years ago when he saw him tidying chairs after a community event.

“Since 9/11, I believe they are not even allowed to open the cockpit door even under duress. The captain Zaharie that I know would be the kind of person who would strictly stick to that.”

Zaharie made no secret of his obsession with aviation, which ranged from flying model aeroplanes to setting up a multi-screen flight simulator at home, which he also showed off on YouTube.

Police have seized the machine and are examining its contents, but say they have yet to find anything suspicious.

A fellow Malaysia Airlines pilot, who declined to be identified, described Zaharie as a “decent and approachable man” who was sought out by less experienced pilots to observe their final training runs, a procedure known as line checks.

“Younger pilots would seek him for their line checks because he was easy to talk to,” the pilot said.

Neighbours who know Fariq, the son of a senior civil servant, said he is known as a good and pious man who was a regular worshipper at a mosque a few minutes walk from his house.

Relatives said he was a diligent student who loved his job, having recently qualified to fly the wide-body 777 jet.

There has been no suggestion he had extremist views or serious personal problems, although he came under fire after the plane’s disappearance when it emerged he had allowed two women into the cockpit on a 2011 flight.

Fariq, who officials believe uttered the final words “all right, goodnight” from the cockpit, had been expected to propose this year to his girlfriend Nadira Ramli, who was a co-pilot for budget carrier AirAsia.

“It was a matter of time before they got married,” said a relative of the fresh-faced Fariq who asked not to be identified.

“Police investigating the suicide theory is upsetting to the family. Why would he even do that? He had a good life and he had Nadira.” – Reuters, March 18, 2014.

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Search teams have 18 days left to find black box before battery runs out, says report

The Malaysian Insider

March 19, 2014

After 12 days and more than 200 hours, the search for the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 jetliner has become a race against time for investigators trying to locate the aircraft’s black box.

ABC News reported that there are only 18 days left for the search teams to locate the most important piece of aviation technology, as it will only transmit a signal for 30 days.

The report said the black box has lost a third of its battery life since the plane disappeared on March 8 with 239 people, including 12 crew members, on board.

It will be a daunting task for the search teams to locate the black box before the battery runs out as they scour a search area of 2.24 million square nautical miles, said the American news company.

ABC News said if a plane crashes into the water, an underwater locator beacon sends out an ultrasonic pulse that cannot be heard by human ears but can be detected by sonar and acoustic-locating equipment.

There is a submergence sensor on the side of the beacon, and when this sensor touches water the beacon activates.

The beacon then sends out pulses at 37.5 kilohertz (kHz) and can transmit sound as deep as 4,267 metres.

Once the beacon begins “pinging,” it pings once per second for 30 days. In rare and severe crash instances, the beacon may get snapped off during a high-impact collision, the report said.

Search teams must be about 25 kilometres in range of the beacon to locate it. Underwater terrain such as deep trenches could also affect detection of the beacon’s signal, it added. – March 19, 2014.

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Thailand finds radar blips that could be MH370, India says Indian Ocean has black holes

The Malaysian Insider

March 19, 2014

The international search for flight MH370 entered its 12th day with Thailand now saying its military took 10 days to report radar blips that could have been the lost Malaysia Airlines jet “because we did not pay attention to it”.

India also reported that the Boeing 777-200ER (9M-MRO) carrying 239 people could have escaped detection by flying into a part of the Indian Ocean that gets irregular radar checks.

Both reports do not bring any fresh clues to finding the lost flight dubbed as an “unprecedented aviation mystery” after it vanished into thin air early March 8 while en route to Beijing.

Thai military officials said yesterday their own radar showed an unidentified plane, possibly flight MH370, flying towards the Strait of Malacca minutes after the Malaysian jet’s transponder signal was lost.

Air force spokesman Air Vice-Marshal Montol Suchookorn said the Thai military did not know whether the plane it detected was flight MH370, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation reported in its website.

Thailand’s failure to share possible information about the plane may not substantially change what Malaysian officials now know, but it raised questions about the degree to which some countries were sharing their defence data, the news portal said.

A coalition of 26 countries, including Thailand, is looking for flight MH370 with search crews scouring two giant arcs of territory amounting to the size of Australia – half of it in the remote seas of the southern Indian Ocean. The search teams had earlier searched the Gulf of Thailand with no success.

The search for the plane is among the largest in aviation history.

The United States navy said P-3 and P-8 surveillance aircraft were methodically sweeping over swathes of ocean, known as “mowing the grass”, while using radar to detect any debris in the water and high-resolution cameras to snap images.

Australian and Indonesian planes and ships are searching waters to the south of Indonesia’s Sumatra Island all the way down to the southern reaches of the Indian Ocean.

Several Malaysian navy ships have also started their search in that area as more assets are deployed to find the missing plane.

Flight MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur at 12.41am on March 8 and its transponder, which allows air traffic controllers to identify and track the airplane, ceased communicating at 1.21am, Malaysian authorities said.

Montol said that at 1.28am, Thai military radar “was able to detect a signal, which was not a normal signal, of a plane flying in the direction opposite from the MH370 plane,” back towards Kuala Lumpur.

The plane later turned right, toward Butterworth, along the Malacca strait. The radar signal was infrequent and did not include any data such as the flight number.

Asked why it took so long to release the information, Montol said: “Because we did not pay any attention to it. The Royal Thai Air Force only looks after any threats against our country.”

The Canadian portal reported him as saying the plane never entered Thai airspace and that Malaysia’s initial request for information in the early days of the search was not specific.

“When they asked again and there was new information and assumptions from Prime Minister (Datuk Seri) Najib Razak, we took a look at our information again,” he said.

“It didn’t take long for us to figure out, although it did take some experts to find out about it,” the portal quoted him as saying.

Indian officials told CNN that if flight MH370 did fly through the southern part of the Indian Ocean, then there was a good chance that Indian radar systems did not even pick it up.

An Indian military official revealed that the radar systems covering the Andaman and Nicobar Islands were not as closely watched by the Indian military as others.

That left open the possibility that the systems did not notice the jet as it crossed through the area, the global television channel said.

“If flight 370 flew along that proposed southern corridor, then there’s a good chance that it did so through this ‘black hole’ in the Indian Ocean.

“The possibility that Indian radar systems missed flight 370 is frightening, because if they had picked up any sign of the jet, the plane’s flight path, timetable, and search area could be so much more focused,” CNN said.

Besides a black hole in radar monitoring, the plane may have also dropped its altitude to a meagre 5,000 feet (1,500m) in order to avoid any further detection, Malaysia’s New Straits Times reported on Monday.

But aviation experts said that low altitude would not be enough to escape radar detection as the systems work on line of sight and low-flying passenger jets would be noticed by people on the ground.

Cmdr William Marks, a spokesman for the US 7th fleet, said finding the plane was like trying to locate a few people somewhere between New York and California.

The new search area encompasses 2.24 million square nautical miles, from the Caspian Sea in the north to the edge of the Indian Ocean in the south. – March 19, 2014.

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10 theories about missing Flight MH370

By News.com.au

New York Post

March 19, 2014

Was lost Flight MH370 the victim of a midair heist of gold bullion? Has it landed but remains hidden? Or was it a terrorist hijacking?

Speculation grows as Australia leads the Indian Ocean search for clues.

Top 10 theories – What may have happened to Flight MH370

1. Fire

A fire may have broken out on the aircraft shortly after last contact was made with air traffic control. The pilot may have made a sharp left turn and attempted to return to a Malaysian airport.

Chris Goodfellow, a Canadian pilot with 20 years’ experience, believes Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi, a 13,000-foot (3,962-meter) airstrip with an approach over water and no real obstacle. If the plane had turned back toward Kuala Lumpur, it would have needed to cross a series of high ridges.

According to him, an electrical fire could explain MH370’s failure to communicate.

He said the flight crew was most likely overcome by smoke and the plane continued in the same direction until it ran out of fuel or fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed.

2. Decompression

A gradual decompression could also explain MH370’s disappearance.

Central Queensland University aviation expert Ron Bishop said a fire or some other accident could have led to a gradual decompression of the aircraft.

The pilots may have tried to return to Malaysia but passed out after turning the aircraft around and the plane continued flying until it ran out of fuel.

3. Mechanical failure

The plane may have suffered a mechanical failure that required the aircraft to turn back to Malaysia. However, the problem could have become so severe that the pilots lost control of the aircraft and the plane may have continued flying until it ran out of fuel or crashed.

4. Hijacking

A passenger may have gained access to the cockpit and hijacked the plane for a political, psychological or financial reason. If the passenger was armed, they might have threatened the pilots and forced them to fly off course.

Otherwise, if the passenger was a trained pilot, they could have taken over the controls.

Malaysia Airlines has said it was “shocked” at a TV report that MH370 co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid had allowed two women into the cockpit on a flight in 2011.

5. Terror attack

The plane may have fallen victim to a terrorist attack.

The presence of two passengers traveling on stolen passports fueled early fears of a terror link.

Authorities now believe the two Iranian men were simply illegal migrants, but CIA Director John Brennan has said a terror attack has not been ruled out.

The search area covers a massive region — a northern corridor from the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan through northern Thailand and a southern corridor from Indonesia to the southern Indian Ocean — with no potential target or destination pinpointed so far.

6. Pilot involvement

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said on Saturday evidence indicated that the plane’s communication systems were manually switched off and it was deliberately diverted.

This suggests that one or both of the pilots could have been involved in diverting the Beijing-bound flight and fly it toward the Indian Ocean.

Malaysian authorities have raided the homes of Zaharie and Fariq, searching for evidence to link them with its disappearance.

Zaharie was reportedly a fanatical supporter of Anwar Ibrahim who was incensed by his sodomy verdict.

7. Pilot suicide

While rare, there have been cases of pilots crashing planes to take their own lives.

In December 1997, a SilkAir Boeing 737 from Jakarta to Singapore plunged into a river in Indonesia with the loss of 104 passengers and crew. US investigators blamed pilot suicide.

A suicide bid “is possible, and if that’s the case, there might not be a lot of debris because the plane would have come down in relative structural integrity,” said Terence Fan, an aviation expert at Singapore Management University.

“The airplane is not meant to float and if the airplane sinks in the water, water will go inside because the door seals are not meant to seal water.”

However, nothing has emerged to suggest any serious psychological problems with either of the pilots who were flying MH370.

8. Plane landed but is hidden

The lack of debris and apparent absence of any data indicating impact has led to speculation that the plane may have landed safely and be hidden in a remote location.

However, the size of the Boeing 777 and the amount of space needed for it to land make it unlikely that this was the flight’s fate, said Greg Waldron, Asia managing editor at industry publication Flightglobal.

“The triple 7 is a very large aircraft that requires a long airport-size runway to land … it’s possible, but I think not probable.”

9. Cover-up

The apparent slowness to reveal key radar data has led to speculation that countries may know more about the plane’s likely whereabouts, but are unwilling to share due to a perceived security risk.

Jakarta-based independent aviation analyst Gerry Soejatman said that if the aircraft flew north across Asia, following one of two air corridors currently being searched, it would be remarkable if no one had detected it.

“It’s extremely difficult to comprehend that so many countries might have seen it and kept it under wraps.”

10. Theft

Some have speculated the Boeing 777 may have been stolen, either to be used in a later terror attack or because it was carrying a valuable cargo, such as gold.

Malaysia Airlines chief executive Ahmad Jauhari Yahya told reporters the most remarkable cargo being carried on MH370 was 3 to 4 tons of mangosteens.

Experts have also played down the likelihood the plane would have been taken for a terrorist attack, pointing out that there are thousands of business jets and cargo planes that could be captured and used much more easily.

This article originally appeared on News.com.au.

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Crucial MH370 info missing because MAS wanted to save RM33, says expert

The Malaysian Insider

March 20, 2014

Malaysia Airlines opted out of a simple computer upgrade that costs RM33 per flight which would have provided critical information to help find the missing flight MH370 because it went for a cheaper option when purchasing the aircraft, the Sydney Morning Herald reported today.

A satellite industry official was quoted as saying that the upgrade, called Swift, would have provided the direction, speed and altitude of flight MH370 even after other communications from the plane went off the radar.

Had the Swift system been upgraded to include the full package of applications, it could have sent information on engine performance, fuel consumption, speed, altitude and direction, regardless of whether the transponder and Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) were working, he said.

The expert, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told the Australian daily that the Swift system was similar to how a smartphone sends data to a satellite, while ACARS was akin to an app for a mobile phone.

“When ACARS is turned off, Swift continues on,” he told the Sydney Morning Herald.

“If you configure Swift to track engine data, that data will be streamed off the plane. It continues to be powered up while the aircraft is powered up.”

The report showed that had Malaysia Airlines obtained the upgrade, it would have continued to send flight data by satellite even after the plane’s transponder and ACARS communications went dead.

Asked why an airline might choose not to buy an application that sells for a relatively modest cost, the industry official told the SMH: “Every pound on an aircraft is fuel consumed. As in all matters, it always comes down to cost.”

Rather than stream that data, he said, some airlines chose to download it onto a USB stick once the plane landed.

Because Malaysia Airlines went with the cheaper option, he said, “there was not an awful lot that was captured”.

Zainul Zawawi, vice-president for North America operations at Malaysia Airlines, told the SMH that he was not authorised to speak about the missing flight and referred questions to airline officials in Malaysia.

Efforts by SMH to reach those officials were not successful.

According to the report, data from a similar computer upgrade allowed investigators in the 2009 crash of an Air France jetliner to hone in quickly on their search area to a radius of about 64km in the Atlantic Ocean. Within five days they found floating evidence of the crash.

This is not the first time Malaysia Airlines has hit the headlines for not subscribing to a programme that would aid in the search for flight MH370.

Bloomberg reported last week that the flag carrier did not install an important Boeing service that collects real-time performance data from jetliners such as flight MH370 that was useful in planning maintenance.

The unprecedented search for the Boeing 777-200ER (9M-MRO) had focused on two vast search corridors: one heading north overland from Laos towards the Caspian Sea, the other towards the south, across the Indian Ocean from west of Indonesia’s Sumatra island to west of Australia.

Reuters said prospects that the 26-nation search operation would lead to quick results appeared to be dwindling, however, as investigators confirmed they were focusing on the remote southern Indian Ocean after failing to find any traces of the jet further north.

“Our top priority is being given to that area,” acting Transport Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein had said.

Australia is leading the search in the southern part of the southern corridor, with assistance from the United States navy.

It has shrunk its search field based on satellite tracking data and analysis of weather and currents, but it still covers an area of 600,000 sq km, roughly the size of Spain and Portugal. – March 20, 2014.

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FBI analyses pilot’s flight simulator data as search for MH370 enters 13th day

The Malaysian Insider

March 20, 2014

With search for the missing Malaysia Airlines entering its 13th day without any significant development, the FBI has stepped in to help analyse data from a flight simulator seized from  the home of flight MH370’s Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah last weekend.

Malaysia has now made available to the FBI electronic data generated by both pilots of flight MH370, including data from a hard drive attached to the captain’s flight simulator, and from electronic media used by the co-pilot, Fariq Abdul Hamid, an American law enforcement official said to Reuters.

The official, however, said he could not confirm that some data had been wiped from the simulator and stressed that there was no guarantee the FBI analysis would turn up any fresh clues.

USA Today, meanwhile, reported an American federal law enforcement official as saying that the material, including a flight simulator recovered from one of the pilot’s homes, is likely to be shipped to the FBI’s lab in Quantico, Virginia.

The report quoted United States Attorney General Eric Holder as saying that the US and Malaysian governments have been “in ongoing conversations about how we can help”.

“We’re working with authorities, but we don’t have any theories (on the cause of the plane’s disappearance),” USA Today quoted Holder as saying.

Acting Transport Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein had said at the daily press briefing yesterday that local and international expertise have been recruited to examine the pilot’s flight simulator.

“Some data had been deleted from the simulator and forensic work to retrieve this data is ongoing,” Hishammuddin had said.

He had said that the investigations into the flight simulator were part of the overall probe into all passengers and crew on board the Malaysia Airlines flight which has been missing since March 8.

“We are sharing all information relevant to the case with all relevant international investigative agencies,” he had said.

United States investigators had become increasingly frustrated in recent days that Malaysian authorities had not asked them for more help.

The FBI has extensive experience investigating airplane crashes, including those of TWA 800 and EgyptAir 990 off the US east coast in the 1990s and Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland.

In the case of EgyptAir 990, the FBI helped air safety investigators establish that the crash was caused by a suicidal co-pilot, while in the case of Pan Am 103, the agency worked with British and US intelligence to build a case against the government of Libya.

At yesterday’s press briefing in Sepang, Inspector-General of Police Tan Sri Khalid Abu Bakar also said that the data from the flight simulator was deleted on February 3.

“Our forensic personnel from the cybercrime unit, MAS and international experts are attempting to retrieve the information.

“The experts are looking at what are the logs that have been cleared,” Khalid had said.

No sign has been found of the Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, which vanished from air traffic control screens off the east coast at 1.21am on March 8, less than an hour after taking off for Beijing, China.

The lack of significant development saw distraught relatives of Chinese passengers on board the plane venting their anger yesterday at the press briefing venue at Sama Sama Hotel.

They accused Putrajaya of withholding information and misleading the public about the search and rescue operation.

The group also carried a huge banner in Mandarin, demanding answers from Putrajaya.

A sobbing Chinese woman, speaking in Mandarin, cried: “Please let me know where is my son, where is his whereabouts”.

The distraught woman kept repeating her demands, calling the government “liars”.

She also said Beijing should exert pressure on Malaysia and demand answers on the whereabouts of flight MH370.

Another relative scolded Putrajaya in Mandarin, saying the Malaysian leaders were “liars” who had kept them in the dark after almost two weeks of searching for the aircraft.

Policemen on duty at the hotel attempted to escort the distraught and angry relatives out of the auditorium, but the situation became chaotic for a while as members of the media rushed to record the scene.

This was the first time relatives of passengers on board the flight MH370 have turned angry and caused a commotion in Kuala Lumpur over the progress of the search for the plane.

Previously, such outburst only occurred in Beijing where relatives complained that they were not getting adequate information in a timely manner.

Some of the relatives who had remained in Beijing had accused Putrajaya of talking nonsense and conspiring in a cover-up instead of carrying out search and rescue, reported the Financial Express.

“Only the Malaysian government knows the truth about Malaysia Airlines. They’ve been talking nonsense since the beginning,” Wen Wancheng, one of the relatives, told the daily after a meeting with airline officials in Beijing on Monday.

“You hid the whereabouts from the beginning and after seven to eight days, you discovered it?

“That was the best time to launch a rescue,” added the 63-year-old from the eastern province of Shandong. His son was on board MH370.

Another relative said after the meeting: “Of course, there is no useful information for us, there never is.”

Hishammuddin issued a statement yesterday addressing the relatives’ disappointment.

 “One can only imagine the anguish they are going through. Malaysia is doing everything in its power to find MH370 and hopefully bring some degree of closure for those whose family members are missing.

“I have ordered an immediate inquiry into the events in the press room today.”

The display of anger by the relatives of the passengers coincided with more scathing criticism of Putrajaya from Chinese state media and social media users.

In an editorial, the China Daily newspaper had asked whether Malaysia was sharing all the information it had gathered.

“The contradictory and piecemeal information Malaysia Airlines and its government have provided has made search efforts difficult and the entire incident even more mysterious,” the newspaper had said.

“What else is known that has not been shared with the world?”

Two-thirds of the passengers on board the Malaysia Airlines flight were Chinese nationals.

Reuters said prospects that the 26-nation search operation would lead to quick results appeared to be dwindling, however, as investigators confirmed they were focusing on the remote southern Indian Ocean after failing to find any traces of the jet further north.

“Our top priority is being given to that area,” Hishammuddin had said at the press briefing. Australia is leading the search in the southern part of the southern corridor, with assistance from the US navy.

It has shrunk its search field based on satellite tracking data and analysis of weather and currents, but it still covers an area of 600,000 sq km, roughly the size of Spain and Portugal.

The unprecedented search for the Boeing 777-200ER (9M-MRO) had focused on two vast search corridors: one heading north overland from Laos towards the Caspian Sea, the other towards the south, across the Indian Ocean from west of Indonesia’s Sumatra island to west of Australia.

“The working assumption is that it went south, and furthermore that it went to the southern end of that corridor,” a source told Reuters.

That view is based on the lack of any evidence from countries along the northern corridor that the plane had entered their airspace and the failure to find any trace of wreckage in searches in the upper part of the southern corridor.

Reuters said some sources involved in the investigation have voiced fears it could stall due to the reluctance of countries in the region to share sensitive radar data that might shed new light on the direction the aircraft took.

Two people familiar with the investigation said the search had been hampered in some cases by delays over the paperwork needed to allow foreign maritime surveillance aircraft into territorial waters without a formal diplomatic request.

“These are basically spy planes; that’s what they were designed for,” one source close to the investigation told Reuters, explaining the hesitance of some nations to give blanket permission for other countries to scour their waters.

Hishammuddin had confirmed that some assets that could be involved in the search were waiting for diplomatic clearance.

“The search for MH370 involves diplomatic, technical and logistical challenges,” he had said at the news briefing. – March 20, 2014.

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In Aussie handling of MH370 search, valuable lessons for Malaysia

by Justin Ong

The Malay Mail Online

March 20, 2014

COMMENTARY,
 March 20 — Australia’s response to satellite imagery of debris possibly from Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 could not have been more different from Malaysia’s in the past 12 days.

Choosing the country’s Parliament as the venue to announce the discovery, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott conveyed both the gravity of the matter — a missing jetliner with 239 passengers —  and that it went beyond partisan lines.

And while the discovery remains far from conclusive — the Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) repeatedly said the debris may even not have anything to do with the missing plane — it chose to come forward with the information almost immediately.

During the press conference, AMSA Emergency Response Division general manager John Young spoke with lucidity and deliberate caution, readily professing a lack of expertise when he was talking on matters with which he was unfamiliar.

And even with the press conference attended by international media held just hours after Abbott made his announcement, the Australian maritime authority made readily available online all the information it shared with the press then, preventing any possible misinterpretation of its findings.

The alacrity, transparency and neutrality of the response stood in contrast to Malaysia’s actions, which have invited criticism by some and condemnation by others.

In the early days, Malaysia held on to critical information that could have shed valuable information on the plane’s whereabouts. And when it finally shared that information, it turned out to be nearly a week old.

Malaysia insisted that the information needed to be corroborated by, as it repeatedly said, global agencies such as the US Federal Aviation Authority (FAA), National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and the UK’s Air Accidents Investigation Board (AAIB).

It was also not until two days ago that it finally clarified the timeline of the crucial moments before the plane’s disappearance.

Malaysia also chose to put a variety of personalities in front of the media, not all of whom were familiar with the matters they were answering to but still spoke with apparent authority.

The answers that came at times sounded confused. At others, they were delivered with an anxiety that suggested an evasiveness where none probably existed.

This allowed misinformation and misinterpretation to cloud available facts, at a time when a word said in error could spread from one end of the world to the other in an instant.

Malaysia also chose not to address those errors quickly, often waiting until the next daily press conference to seemingly contradict the information shared the day before, much to the chagrin of the reporters covering the events.

At times, Malaysia has acted with a lack of delicacy. Yesterday, authorities forcibly removed Chinese relatives of those aboard MH370 from speaking with media following the daily press conference at the Sama-Sama Hotel in Sepang.

Decisions to only brief lawmakers from the ruling administration rather than share the information it had in Parliament also suggested an unwillingness to set aside enmities long enough for a matter of national concern.

It is undeniable that MH370 is “unprecedented”, both for the aviation industry and Malaysia.

Malaysia has never experienced anything on such a scale, and is clearly still coming to grips with the situation.

With mystery of MH370 possibly still far from being resolved, Malaysia can still rectify some of the issues raised with its handling so far.

But what is undeniable is that Australia today has significantly raised the bar.

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Loss of plane spurs calls to upload black box data to the ‘cloud’

The Malaysian Insider/Reuters

March 20, 2014

The disappearance of a Malaysian plane has prompted calls for in-flight streaming of black box data over remote areas, but industry executives say implementing changes may be complex and costly.

Mark Rosenker, former chairman of the US National Transportation Safety Board, said this incident and the 2009 loss of an Air France flight in the Atlantic should spur reforms in what he described an outdated accident investigation process.

Rosenker, a retired US Air Force general, said finding a way to transmit limited information from flight data and cockpit voice recorders to a virtual “cloud” database would help authorities launch accident investigations sooner and locate a plane if it got into trouble while out of reach of ground-based radars.

“This is the second accident in five years where we’ve had to wait to get the black boxes back,” Rosenker said. “We need to bring the concept of operations for accident investigations and the technology of what is available up to the 21st century.”

Twenty-six nations have been searching for the missing Boeing Co 777 airliner over an area roughly the size of Australia for 12 days, but the massive hunt has found no trace of any wreckage thus far.

Mary Kirby, editor of the aviation industry website Runway Girl Network, said airlines could use the growing number of broadband connections that allow passengers to access the Internet and download movies to provide real-time GPS data for just such emergencies.

“Airlines realise that this is the cost of doing business,” she said. “It is inexplicable to be bringing these big fat connectivity pipes to aircraft and yet to be in a situation in 2014 where you can lose a plane.”

Aviation experts and industry executives say it should be technically possible to stream flight recorder data to a database or a virtual “cloud”, but warned about broadband constraints and the high cost of equipping older airliners with new electronic equipment.

They say new satellite-based air traffic management systems being implemented in the United States, Asia and Europe in coming years will make it easier to track airplanes and monitor aircraft systems in flight, but note it will take a decade or more before the systems are commonplace worldwide.

Streaming the huge amounts of data now collected by flight data recorders may also pose technical challenges, while transmission of cockpit voice recordings could raise privacy concerns, said analyst Richard Aboulafia with the Teal Group.

Rosenker, the former NTSB chief, said investigators could agree on a much smaller subset of key data to transmit, which would save bandwidth and cost. The data could even be sent at intervals instead of continuously streamed, he said.

Most airplanes already have systems known as Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) that periodically report, either via VHF radio or satellite, on the performance of the aircraft and its engines, which could provide another possibility for getting data to investigators.

One industry executive said he fully expected reforms after this incident, but said airlines were more likely to increase the amount of data they were receiving from the existing ACARS system rather than opting to stream flight data.

“It would just be too costly. There are 93,000 flights a day, and we’ve had two incidents like this in four or five years,” said the executive, who was not authorised to speak publicly since the search for the plane continues.

Bob Benzon, a former Air Force pilot and NTSB investigator, said it could potentially cost billions of dollars to allow every plane in the world to stream flight data, but mounting frustration over the failure to find any trace of Flight MH370 could well galvanise the aviation community into some action.

He said other potentially cheaper proposals included outfitting planes with floating locator or data recorder beacons that would automatically deploy if an airplane crashed.

“There’s a tombstone mentality at times. You actually have to have a very tragic event to get things done,” Benzon said. “I predict that this is one of those events unfortunately.”

Some US military airplanes, including the Air Force’s massive C-5 cargo planes, already have floating data recorders since they often fly over large spans of ocean.

The NTSB has recommended mandatory video recordings in the cockpit of commercial airliners, but has never recommended live-streaming or regular transmission of flight data.

Discussion about mandating regular transmissions from airliner black boxes increased after Air France Flight AF447 crashed into the Atlantic Ocean in 2009, its location and black boxes remaining a mystery until 22 months later.

This time, investigators are beginning to think the plane may never be found, given the dearth of clues thus far.

Oliver McGee, a professor of mechanical engineering at Howard University and former senior US Transportation Department official, said advances in technology made this an ideal time to change current procedures.

“It’s time to move the black box to ‘the cloud’ at least for essential limited flight recorder data for long flights over (areas) like the Indian Ocean, or other remote areas across large land masses like across the Brazilian Amazon,” he said.

Victoria Day, spokeswoman for Airlines for America, which represents major US carriers, said it was “premature for us to speculate about potential changes to safety and security procedures”.

Officials at Delta Air Lines, United and American Airlines also declined comment on the Malaysia Airlines case, and any consequences for the industry.

In the past, airlines have argued that such accidents are too rare to justify the added expense of streaming flight recorder data, but Rosenker said the cost needed to be weighed against the cost of the current search.

“Look at what’s happening now. We’ve lost a 777 and over 200 people. Navies and airplanes from around the world are searching for this plane. That’s not cheap either,” he said. – Reuters, March 20, 2014.

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