21-Day Countdown to 13GE – The empty drumbeats from Pemandu (Part 2)

The Pemandu Claims and a Reality Check

The Claim

We used a credible global yardstick – the World Bank’s approach to define our high income target. The World Bank’s current GNI per capita threshold for a high income economy is US$12,476. We factored in the World Bank’s published historical global inflation figure of two per cent until 2020 to arrive at a high-income threshold of US$15,000.

The Facts

Each year on July 1, The World Bank revises the classification of the world’s economies based on estimates of gross national income (GNI) per capita for the previous year…… As of 1 July 2012, the World Bank income classifications by GNI per capita are as follows:

Low income: $1,025 or less

Lower middle income: $1,026 to $4,035

Upper middle income: $4,036 to $12,475

High income: $12,476 or more

		Source: http://search.worldbank.org/all?qterm=COUNTRY%20CLASSIFICATIONS

		COMMENT: The calculations are done annually and are not comparable from year to year and cannot therefore be projected. Thus the figure of US$ 15,000 projected by PEMANDU is wholly meaningless.

		The numbers cited by the Prime Minister earlier and now repeated in the Report are a fabrication and deviate widely from the GNI per capita numbers for Malaysia published by the World Bank on its web site : http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD/countries/MY-4E-XT?display=default

		The World Bank website shows that the numbers were:

2009

US$7,550

2010

US$8,090

2011

US$8,770

		The World Bank data sets NEVER show growth rates of GNI per capita in US dollars OVER TIME in the way Najib  and PEMANDU have done. Thus, the 49% figure is based on an inappropriate calculation and the number is pure fabrication and therefore intentionally misleading.

		The true measure of a country’s performance is shown by the GDP growth rate expressed in constant prices. On that basis the Malaysian economy grew at approximately 5.0 percent per annum over the three year time span cited in the Report. This is also based on fabricated statistics..

		They also deviate from numbers published by Bank Negara Malaysia. The much lower base figure estimated by PEMANDU for 2009 enables it to exaggerate its so-called erroneous growth rate.

Year

RM GNI per capita

Exchange Rate to US $

GNI Per Capita in US$ (BANK NEGARA)

GNI Per Capita US$ (PEMANDU)

2009

24879

3.5246

7059

6700

2010

26886

3.2211

8346

8100

2011

29661

3.0600

9693

9700

2012

30809

30888

9.974

9970

		Source: Bank Negara Monthly Bulletin of Statistics Tables: 2.6 and 3.3. and PEMANDU Report

		Three claims are being made: namely, that Malaysia had achieved a GNI per capita level of US$ 9,970 in 2011.  This is incorrect. The World Bank reported a figure of US$8,770. The overstatement by almost US$ 1,000 is sizable. Second, the growth rate based on current price terms (see above) is wholly misleading. Per capita GNI growth in constant price terms was of the order of 3 percent per annum. Third, implied inter-country comparison of erroneous growth rates is misleading.  The bottom line is that the PEMANDU report overinflates numbers in a disgraceful manner. It appears that PEMANDU is more interested in serving its client Najib than providing a credible assessment of the Malaysian economy.

The Claim

By 2020, it is hoped that private investment would make up 92 per cent of total investments in the country, with public sector investment to account for the remainder.

The Fact

This hope is wishful. The current shares are: Public: 43 percent Private: 57 percent. The recent private sector surge has been due to a number of large infrastructure type projects of a lumpy nature and cannot be sustained. Private investment only grew by  6.7 per cent between

2000 and 2010. Much of the growth can be attributed to GLCs and a sizable part of the investment has been overseas. The sad reality is that the investment numbers  too are a fabrication.

The Claim

Private consumption on the rise: Domestic private consumption hit 7.7 per cent in 2012 compared to 7.1 per cent in 2011, reflecting growing consumer confidence in our economic transformation journey

The Fact

Private consumption over the period under review was  fueled by cash transfers (BR1M and other handouts), salary increases to 1.4 million public servants, the rapid increase in private household debt to finance over – priced  homes, education loans, and over-priced transport equipment.

The recently released IMF Report, following the annual consultations, pointed with some concern to the rapid increase in loans extended to households by the banking sector.  Thus, sustained growth in private household consumption is unlikely particularly if the Government introduces measures to broaden the tax base via the introduction of the GST and the withdrawal of consumer subsidies. Furthermore, slower growth in global trade will impact incomes of commodity producers. These developments will have a negative overall impact on incomes and consumption. Given, the limited head room, it will be virtually impossible to take counter-cyclical measures. PEMANDU is intentionally ignoring the realities of problems with incomes and consumption and disingenuously crediting their client Najib with consumer confidence that has been politically constructed through Najib’s vote buying measures.

The Claim

External parties continue to recognise Malaysia’s tremendous progress

The Fact

This assertion is based on rather selective choice of external parties. The PEMANDU Report fails to refer to the most recent IMF Report following the Fund’s annual review of the Malaysian Economy. It is possible to highlight quotes from the Report which can be downloaded from: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr1351.pdf

Consumption growth has also been vigorous, supported by a strong labor market, credit to households, and government transfers.

Net exports, on the other hand, have declined. This has led to a significant external rebalancing, with the current account surplus moderating by about 5 percentage points of GDP relative to 2011

Domestically, elevated housing prices and growing household debt may pose risks for the financial sector.

The Federal Government debt is projected to rise to about 53 percent of GDP in 2012−13, close to the authorities’ self-imposed ceiling of 55 percent of GDP. On the other hand, the overall public sector deficit is projected to have risen to 5.1 percent of GDP in 2012 (from 3.3 percent in 2011), partly reflecting higher investments by nonfinancial public enterprises (NFPEs), and is expected to widen to 6.3 percent of GDP in 2013.

The Federal Government’s relatively high debt level affords limited space for a fiscal response in a downside scenario.

Housing prices are running ahead of household incomes and housing rents. Household debt is high, as is bank exposure to households (55 percent of bank credit) growth in credit to households’ remains in double digits, the supply of low cost housing is tight, and prices are still rising strongly in some housing segments.

Malaysia’s fiscal space has shrunk considerably following the global financial crisis. The FG debt to GDP ratio has increased by 12 percentage points since 2008, reflecting both substantial discretionary fiscal stimulus and declining growth and oil prices in the aftermath of the crisis. This debt ratio is elevated compared to countries with similar credit ratings. The structural fiscal position has also deteriorated, as evidenced by the persistent decline in the nonoil primary balance and the current balance. The significant increase in operating expenditures in recent years may put at risk the FG’s golden rule of maintaining a positive current fiscal balance. A weak structural fiscal position and a relatively high debt ratio reduce the ability to mount countercyclical fiscal responses in the future.

The FG’s revenue base is narrow and overly reliant on volatile oil and gas receipts, which account for about a third of the total. The planned introduction of the GST would help broaden the revenue base. In addition, the authorities should streamline fiscal incentives for investment, with their budgetary costs made more transparent.

The public sector deficit is rising, reflecting a large increase in NFPE spending.

Contingent liabilities for the Federal Government are also growing from the rise in government’s statutory guarantees (which increased to 15 percent of GDP, partly reflecting borrowing by special purpose vehicles set up to finance large public infrastructure projects), and from public-private partnerships (PPPs) more generally.

			What is stark is that the PEMANDU Report makes no mention of the fact that the Government has indicated to the IMF that:

The authorities stressed their commitment to fiscal consolidation, tax reform and expenditure rationalization. They reiterated the government’s commitment to implement the GST, rationalize energy subsidies, and strengthen public financial management, including through a medium term budget framework. They also highlighted their intention to address long term spending pressures, including through reforms to the public pension scheme, to housing and student loan programs, and to the civil service.

			The omission of these facts from the PEMANDU Report is telling. It is a brazen concealment of the challenges that the nation now faces because of weak and incompetent economic management in the recent past under Najib’s tenure. Equally, alarming is the fact that no attempt has been made to lay out the difficult policy options that will need to be exercised. What is particularly galling is that the Prime Minister in introducing the  Report added insult to injury by promising the reckless extension of the BR1M handouts as a permanent feature. This is a desperate measure by a premier who is fighting for his political survival rather than a leader who shows sound economic management that genuinely prioritizes a vibrant economy.

The Claim

Consistent reduction in fiscal deficit: Moving forward, the aim is to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.0 per cent and 3.0 per cent in 2013 and 2015, respectively.

The Fact

The Prime Minister has publicly announced that the Government will continue to pursue fiscal prudence and keep its debt below the self-imposed ceiling.

The numbers cited only relate part of the story. The reality is that public debt has almost doubled to RM 504 billion (approximately 54 percent of GDP) over the short space of four years while Dato Najib has been at the helm as Prime Minister and Minister of Finance. This figure does not include the contingency liabilities which are estimated at 15 percent of GDP. Against this background, the promises now being made ring hollow.

		While the PEMANDU Report chooses to remain silent and evasive, the Government has  acknowledged in its deliberations with the IMF  that the circumstances will demand measures to broaden the tax base, repeal subsidies, trim certain expenditures and adopt tighter policies to control operating expenditures. These policies will translate into the introduction of the long delayed GST, removal of subsidies covering consumer goods. There is no indication that there is any intention to withdraw subsidies currently extended to Independent Power Producers or toll road operators or other recipients of “corporate welfare”. Attempts to curb the growth in household debt will directly impact on the ability of households to borrow in order to finance housing and transport equipment.

		Taken as a whole, the impact of the above policy package will largely be felt by the household sector. The measures taken could push the country on an austerity path not too dissimilar to that adopted by several of the EUROZONE countries. Would this scenario unfold, Malaysians will feel the pain of adjustment even harder than they are feeling the high cost of living now. Against this background, Najib’s announcement about making BR1M permanent is  irresponsible and his leadership endangers Malaysia’s future.

Conclusion

The Prime Minister made a number of unsubstantiated and false claims in his characterization of the economy. His claims concerning per Capita GNI levels are pure fabrications drawn from consultants that are more interested in pleasing their client Najib than looking out for Malaysia’s future.

PEMANDU in its Report has outreached itself and in the process undermined the credibility of any of its reports. The Report is a total  disappointment as it repeats  clichés, half-truths  and “feel good” statements concerning the state of the economy.

The Report has dismally failed to present an objective portrait of achievements, prospects and future policies and misleads the Malaysian people. The audience is left to drown in a tankful of an alphabet soup. Not only have the Prime Minister and his minions misled the Malaysian public, this report has provided no indication of any of the policies a BN Government under his leadership, if re- elected, would offer.

Thus, the Report offers no vision. It gives little confidence that the current Government is on top of its job. It fails even as an electioneering document.

                This entry was posted on Thursday, 21 March 2013, 7:50 pm and is filed under
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22-Day Countdown to 13GE – Najib deserves an “F” in his National Transformation Program (NTP) report card for failing to acknowledge, much less tackle the issues of Corruption, Crime and Education

Najib released his National Transformation Program (NTP) Report Card yesterday evening in his ‘State of the Union’ address that was broadcast live on mainstream media and also online. To no one’s surprise, he gave himself top marks in both the Government Transformation Program (GTP) and the Economic Transformation Program (ETP).

Nearly all of the KPIs set were met, if not surpassed, in each of the National Key Results Areas (NKRAs) and the National Key Economic Areas (NKEAs).

But to borrow a phrase from a popular author, there are ‘lies, damned lies, and KPIs’.

If we compare the stellar achievements of Najib’s report card in just three areas – Corruption, Crime and Education – to reality and also other more credible evidence, we are left with no choice but to give Najib an “F” for his NTP Report Card.

The Anti-Corruption NKRA achieved an unbelievable 97% score (out of 100%). Such a high score makes a mockery of the widespread perception that the BN government has failed miserably in walking the walk.

This absurd score must not have taken into account Malaysia’s world leading worst ranking in the 2012 Bribe Payer’s Survey where 50% of respondents in the country acknowledged that their company has failed to win a contract or gain new business because a competitor has paid a bribe. Our top rank put us ahead of countries such as Nigeria (24%) and China (27%).

For one of the components of this NKRA – the number of people in the database of convicted offenders – a score of 132% was achieved because 395 offenders were included in this database compared to the target of 300.

And yet, those who are guilty of grand corruption on a massive scale are left to roam and worse yet, allowed to continue to plunder the country and abuse their power.

No one captures this phenomenon more than the Chief Minister of Sarawak who has ruled the state for 32 years and counting.

Despite the many calls, both domestically and internationally, for our country’s anti-corruption agency to conduct a comprehensive investigation into his assets and finances; despite the fact that some sources, such as the Bruno Manser Fund (BMF), have listed Taib’s wealth at US$15b (RM45b) which would make him the richest person in Malaysia; our Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) still refuses to prosecute Taib for corruption.

The recent explosive allegations revealed in a ‘sting’ operation by international NGO, Global Witness, have once again put the spotlight on Taib and his cronies but needless to say, our toothless MACC, together with our even more toothless Prime Minister, who signed the Transparency International Malaysia’s Elections Integrity Pact with Taib looking over his shoulder, will do nothing to get to the bottom of this international scandal.

The Reducing Crime NKRA achieved equally ‘astounding’ results.

Overall crime has apparently been reduced by 27% over the past 3 years, Street crime has fallen by a whopping 41% over the same time period and the fear of becoming a victim of crime has also apparently fallen by an eye popping 57%.

But despite these seemingly significantly improvements in the Reducing Crime KPIs, there have not been any reports of even one neighbourhood in the Klang Valley which feels safe enough to stop operating private security guards in that particular area as a result of these improvements.

Doubts about whether crime has genuinely been reduced have not been assuaged by serious accusations that the Police have deliberately fudged crime statistics by shifting reports of crime from index to non-index crimes in order to meet their GTP KPIs.

And the Home Minister and the Police have not shown any degree of transparency by not releasing detailed breakdown of these crime statistics by district and by type of crime.

The PDRM annual report, which gives detailed crime statistics, was discontinued after the start of the GTP, perhaps in fear that the fudging of crime statistics would come to light.

Even the former IGP, Tan Sri Musa Hassan, has called on the PDRM and on the Home Ministry to publicly disclose all the relevant crime statistics so that the people can get a more accurate picture of the crime situation in the country and see where the reduction in these crimes have decreased.

It is laughable and disgraceful that Najib’s report card still uses rankings such as the Global Peace Index (which includes items such as defense spending and the presence of wars) to try to ‘convince’ us that Malaysia is ranked as the safest and most peaceful nation in Southeast Asia.

Under the Improving Student Outcomes NKRA, 10 out of 11 KPIs were achieved with a score above 90%. The % of Band 6 and 7 schools (the worst performing schools) were decreased by 43.6% (compared to a target of 20%) and the % of Band 1 and 2 schools (the best performing schools) were increased from 27% (compared to a target of 8%).

But these achievements fly in the face of Malaysia’s world leading fall in the International Mathematics & Science Study (TIMSS) 2011 rankings as well as scores. Malaysia fell being in 10th position in 2003 to 20th in 2007 and to 26th in the recently released 2011 results for Math scores. Malaysia also fell from 20th in 2003 to 21st in 2007 and then to the 32nd position in 2011 for Science scores.

Malaysia also had the ignominy for suffering the largest falls in the Math and Science scores across all content domains (together with Jordan).

Such a result would have led to the resignation or the sacking of any Education Minister in any normal democratic country but here in Malaysia, the Minister of Education and Deputy Prime Minister, Muhyiddin Yasin, has not even acknowledged this problem, much less try to find ways to address this serious decline in our education standards.

Not surprisingly, the drastic fall in our TIMSS scores are not even mentioned in Najib’s Report Card.

There is a saying that those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.

In our case, we have a Prime Minister who not only fails to acknowledge our past and current mistakes, he takes pride, assurance and comfort in giving himself high marks for achieving KPIs which are set and measured by his own government and government agencies.

Any rational person who evaluates just these three NKRAs would find the record of Najib’s government deeply and tragically flawed.

The only way for Najib and the BN to truly learn their lesson would be for the people of Malaysia to vote them out of government so that they can see what honest and efficient delivery will be like under a Pakatan Rakyat government.

While we cannot promise an immediate “A”, we are confident that we can perform significantly better than Najib’s “F” in not just these three NKRAs but also in all other aspects of governing and governance.

(Media Statement in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday, 20th March 2013)

                This entry was posted on Thursday, 21 March 2013, 7:16 am and is filed under
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BN has delivered – A Nation Most Vulnerable to an Economic Storm!

by Martin Jalleh

                This entry was posted on Thursday, 21 March 2013, 9:36 am and is filed under
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20-Day Countdown to 13GE – Lies, Damn Lies and PEMANDU Statistics

Oh!  What a tangled web we weave,

When first we practise to deceive!

Sir Walter Scott
, Marmion, Canto vi. Stanza 17.

Scottish author & novelist (1771 – 1832)

Datuk Seri Idris Jala, CEO of PEMANDU has issued a statement stating that growth of  Gross National Income (GNI) per capita in US dollars from 2009 to 2012 has been revised down to 41 percent from 49 percent.

He is reported to have said that the revision arose following the adoption of a new accounting method, rather than a deliberate attempt to fudge numbers.

He pointed out that the change in figures was due to the adoption of the latest version of the United Nations System of National Accounting (SNA 2008) in 2012 which had pushed the GNI per capita up for 2009 from US$6700 to US$7059.

He offered other weak and lame reasons defending the method and the numbers put out by PEMANDU.

Little of what he said cuts much ice. The change in numbers makes little difference. The attribution to an adoption of a new method or international standard has little to do with the nature of the numbers.

He has been caught in a gross deception by applying the concept of GNI to project growth in per capita incomes of individuals. GNI is defined by the UN Statistical Division as:

Gross national income (GNI) is GDP less net taxes on production and imports, less compensation of employees and property income payable to the rest of the world plus the corresponding items receivable from the rest of the world (in other words, GDP less primary incomes payable to non-resident units plus primary incomes receivable from non-resident units). An alternative approach to measuring GNI at market prices is as the aggregate value of the balances of gross primary incomes for all sectors; (note that gross national income is identical to gross national product (GNP) as previously used in national accounts)

The Department of Statistics, Malaysia, in its Annual National Accounts: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2005 – 2011, indicates that it defines GNI as:

Gross national income (GNI) is the aggregate value of the balances of gross primary incomes for all sectors; (gross national income is identical to gross national product (GNP) as hitherto understood in national accounts generally)

These definitions make it patently clear that GNI is an aggregate value and covers more than what households receive. Thus, GNI per Capita is not a measure of what can be attributed as a receipt by households. This is best illustrated by the following Table. PEMANDU has used the wrong tool.

GDP AND GNI ESTIMATES
 (In Current Prices)

Period

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Net factor income payments from abroad

Gross National Income (GNI)

Mid-year population (‘000)

Per capita GNI (RM)

Gross national savings

2005

543578

-23942

519635

26046

19951

200109

2006

596784

-17294

579490

26550

21826

231519

2007

665340

-13984

651355

27058

24073

257943

2008

769949

-23034

746915

27538

27094

296630

2009

712857

-14215

698642

28082

24879

237869

2010

795037

-26514

768523

28589

26882

272114

2011

881080

-21971

859108

28964

29661

304907

2012

937532

-33683

903850

29337

30809

298704

It is clear from this table that GNI is a derivative of GDP with an adjustment for certain external payments. GNI is
not what accrues to households
.

The conventional measure for assessing what accrues to individuals is represented by Private Final Consumption (PFC). It is this what individuals have and therefore it is this that is the appropriate yard stick.  The estimates of PFC per Capita tell a very different tale from the one being spun by PEMANDU and by the Prime Minister.

Private Final Consumption Per Capita
 (in Current Prices)

Year

Private Final Consumption RM Million

As percentage Share of GDP Percent

Mid – Year  Population (‘000)

Per Capita Private Final Consumption RM

Exchange Rate

Per Capita Private Final Consumption US $

2005

240,188

44.2

26046

9222

3.6682

2514

2006

264,584

44.3

26550

9965

3.4375

2899

2007

300,418

45.2

27058

11103

3.3333

3331

2008

344,215

44.7

27568

12486

3.5246

3543

2009

348,168

48.8

28082

12398

3.2211

3849

2010

377,631

47.5

28589

13209

3.0600

4317

2011

418,473

47.5

28964

14448

3.0888

4678

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia. ANNUAL NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) 2005 – 2011

What is significant is that the percentage share of GDP accruing to households between 2005 and 2011 in current price terms was virtually unchanged. Thus, factoring in inflation, households have hardly benefitted from overall GDP growth. This substantiates the point made by many analysts that earnings and incomes have stagnated, that growth has not benefitted nor contributed to a rise in living standards.

The PEMANDU report and the Prime Minister have shamelessly indulged in claiming an increase of 49 percent (now scaled back to 41 percent) in per capita incomes.

The truth of the matter is there has been no such implied improvement in the livelihoods of individuals.

These numbers reflect a failure of policies but sadly, a desperate Prime Minister has failed to acknowledge the failure.

Even more telling is the fact that he has crowed about continuing on this path and promised the nirvana of reaching by 2020 a high income status with a level of US$15,000 GNI per capita, a measure with little meaning as far as the man in the street is concerned.

The magic figure of US$ 15,000 with which the powers-that-be are obsessed requires some clarification.

What PEMANDU has done is a two stage juggle. It has first converted the GNI per Capita series in Ringgit terms into US Dollars. The resulting converted numbers in US Dollars differ grossly from the World Bank’s US $ GNI per Capita figures for Malaysia as can be observed from the Table below.

ALTERNATE ESTIMATES OF GNI

Year

RM GNI per capita

Exchange Rate to US $

GNI Per Capita in US$ (BANK NEGARA)

GNI Per Capita US$ (PEMANDU)

GNI Per Capita US $(WORLD BANK ATLAS METHOD))

2009

24879

3.5246

7059

6700

7550

2010

26886

3.2211

8346

8100

8090

2011

29661

3.0600

9693

9700

8770

2012

30809

30888

9.974

9970

NA

The second juggle that PEMANDU has done concerns the determination of the projected “High Income” level.

The PEMANDU Report states:

“The World Bank’s current GNI per capita threshold for a high income economy is US$12,476. We factored in the World Bank’s published historical global inflation figure of two per cent until 2020 to arrive at a high-income threshold of US$15,000.”

This is totally flawed for several reasons. First and foremost the threshold figure of US$12,476  for High Income level is based on a unique method called the World Bank Atlas method and is in current dollar terms. It must be stressed that this figure is never projected by the World Bank. Indeed, it cannot be projected and certainly not in the manner done by PEMANDU.

When the Prime Minister introduced the PEMANDU Report, he added insult to injury. He prevaricated by not acknowledging that the nation’s long suffering taxpayers will be further burdened by the imposition of the GST, the withdrawal of consumer subsidies, and the reduction of vital services in the field of health with the privatization that is planned.

The Prime Minister cannot deny that these steps are in the works should he be re-elected. Indeed, these measures have been discussed with the IMF which warned the Government about the exploding debt.

PEMANDU has demonstrated via its annual report a level of incompetence beyond belief.

Its CEO must be held accountable; he has sullied his professional reputation by sanctioning the use of fabricated numbers generated by highly paid consultants with little competence or understanding of rudimentary macro-economic analytical tools. He and the Prime Minister owe the public an apology.

It is time for a change of Government.

                This entry was posted on Friday, 22 March 2013, 4:50 pm and is filed under
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A sure win for Lim Kit Siang?

by
Lim Mun Fah

The Malaysian Insider

March 22, 2013

MARCH 22 — Many Pakatan Rakyat supporters were filled with a wild ecstatic happiness and believed that it would be a sure-win battle when Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim made the announcement that DAP parliamentary leader Lim Kit Siang will contest in Gelang Patah, Johor. Most members of public also believe that his odds of winning are extremely high.

If we analyse calmly, however, the MCA might not necessarily lose the battle. Nothing is impossible in politics. Moreover, Lim is not God, he has suffered five defeats in his political career over the past nearly half a century, including the Serdang state seat in the 1968 by-election, the Bandar Hilir state seat in 1982, the Tanjung Bungah state seat in 1995, and the Bukit Bendara parliamentary seat, as well as the Kebun Bunga state seat in 1999, plunging his political career into a trough.

There is a certain risk for Lim to contest in Gelang Patah, the MCA’s turf. If we look at the election records of Gelang Patah, the MCA’s Chang See Ten @ Teu Si won the seat with 24,219-vote majority in 1995 and 26,405-vote majority in 1999. In 2004, the MCA’s then fresh candidate Tan Ah Eng achieved a peak by winning the seat with a 31,666-vote majority, and given the anti-ruling party sentiment in 2008, Tan still won the seat with 8,851-vote majority. The record shows that Gelang Patah has been a stronghold of the MCA and it is not that easy to pull it down.

The two Gelang Patah MPs, namely Chang and Tan, have been recognised as people-serving lawmakers with a cordial image. They have gained a good reputation over the past 18 years and secured a certain number of votes for the MCA. However, it was said that Gelang Patah MCA division chairman Teoh Sew Hock would be fielded to contest this time, triggering an internal factional struggle. The DAP, which has eyeballed the seat for 20 years, sees it as an opportunity and thus, came out with such an arrangement and strategy.

Obviously, the DAP is targeting not only the Gelang Patah parliamentary seat, but to make a breakthrough in Johor with Lim’s personal charisma and popularity and to achieve the ultimate goal of seizing Putrajaya.

Lim’s risky move reminds me of two opposition leaders in a neighbouring country: Low Thia Khiang and Chiam See Tong. They used similar strategies but received different outcomes.

In the 2011 Singapore election, both Low and Chiam decided not to seek re-election in their respective Single Member Constituencies and instead contested in Group Representation Constituencies. As a result, Low successfully made a breakthrough and increased the number of parliamentary seats of the Workers’ Party from one to six, while pushing the party’s and his personal prestige to the peak.

As for Chiam, his team was defeated by the PAP’s team in Bishan-Toa Payoh Group Representation Constituency while his wife narrowly lost in Potong Pasir. The setback has basically ended Chiam’s political career.

The above examples show that even with seemingly similar strategies, there are still differences in deployment and tactic, which will lead to different outcomes. The political situation is still evolving and the BN’s strategy remains unknown. It is now a bit too early to say Lim will surely win and it will also lead to the mistake of underestimating the enemy! — mysinchew.com

                This entry was posted on Friday, 22 March 2013, 3:56 pm and is filed under
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BN has Delivered – the Highest Debt in the Nation’s History!

by Martin Jalleh

                This entry was posted on Friday, 22 March 2013, 7:07 pm and is filed under
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BN has delivered – the Highest Illicit Outflow in Nation’s History!

by Martin Jalleh

                This entry was posted on Friday, 22 March 2013, 7:10 pm and is filed under
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GE13 – Make the Right Choice

By Kee Thuan Chye

from March 2013 issue of Penang Monthly

Voters, you have to decide soon. The 13th general election has to be held at the latest within two months of April 28, when the current government’s term expires. It may even be called next month if Prime Miniser Najib Razak has the gumption for it.

Meanwhile, if you haven’t decided yet which coalition – Barisan Nasional (BN) or Pakatan Rakyat (PR) – should win federal power for the next five years, consider this.

After 55 years of ruling this country, where has BN got us?

The country is more divided than ever. We have been polarised on racial and religious lines for decades, but now we are divided by political leanings as well.

What about our economic progress?

According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates, Malaysia ’s GDP per capita based on the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) methodology amounted in 1980 to US$2,331. South Korea ’s was lower at US$2,302, and Taiwan ’s was slightly higher at US$3,571.

But in 2011, South Korea ’s figure rose to US$31,220 (an increase of 1,255%), Taiwan ’s to US$37,716 (up 956%), while Malaysia ’s stood at US$16,240 (up 596%).

What happened? How did South Korea overtake us and in 2011 record a figure that is double that of ours?

Some people say the GDP (PPP) per capita is not so comprehensive, so let’s look at per capita income instead.

In 2011, South Korea ’s per capita income was US$22,424 and Taiwan ’s was US$20,083. How much was Malaysia ’s? US$9,656. Again, half that of South Korea ’s, and also Taiwan ’s.

Najib pledges to make us a high-income nation with a per capita income of US$15,000 in 2020. By that time, what do you think the per capita incomes of South Korea and Taiwan would be? Furthermore, would US$15,000 still qualify as high income then?

By the way, our neighbour, Singapore , that used to be part of Malaysia , has a per capita income of US$46,241, which is almost five times ours. And they don’t have natural resources like we do.

In the last few years, the Government has hardly been talking of making Malaysia an advanced nation, which is the goal of Vision 2020, tabled in 1991. It has been more than 20 years since, enough time to consolidate efforts to attain the goal, but we are apparently not near it. The talk these days is only about becoming a high-income nation instead. That’s not the same as becoming an advanced nation.

Clearly, wastage, leakages, imprudent government spending and, above all, corruption have retarded our growth. And the problem is compounded by the ruling party itself being mired in corruption. Is BN therefore likely to address this issue in a serious and concerted manner? Has it been doing so, apart from hauling in a few culprits from time to time?

Shouldn’t we bring in a new government that is not so entrenched in this system of corrupt practices and economic leakages?

If we should, the 13th general election may be the only time to do it. Because if BN wins again, it is likely to gerrymander the electoral boundaries afterwards to its advantage and make it even harder for the Opposition to win future general elections. In which case BN will be ruling Malaysia for many more years to come.

Would it then be likely to bring reform? Or would it rather continue to maintain the status quo to ensure it holds on to power and reap the rewards of being in government?

However, if the Opposition coalition, PR, were to win, what would be the biggest benefit to Malaysians? I think it would be the concretisation of the reality that a two-coalition system can work and is here to stay.

And isn’t this what we need? If not for the March 8, 2008, electoral result, would we be feeling as important as we do today as the people who decide who should govern us? Would we be feeling that our votes do count? Would the Government be listening to us as much?

A two-coalition system provides for a stronger Opposition, and this is always good for applying pressure on the ruling party to do what is right and what is of benefit to the rakyat. When BN had its two-thirds majority, it enjoyed a monopoly. It could push anybody aside and any laws through Parliament. It could be arrogant. Even now, it still is but less so.

Do you think that if BN were not voted out come GE 13 so that it would experience what it’s like to be in the Opposition, it would be able to reform itself in order to serve the people better rather than its own interests?

Look at Umno, the biggest party in the BN coalition. It is dominated by warlords – big ones and small ones. To them, losing their fiefdom is losing almost everything.

Holding office, even a relatively small one, opens the door to potential riches for the office holder and his supporters. The bigger the office, of course the greater the wealth. He will therefore not want to give it up. That is why Umno’s leaders are going around appealing to the party’s members not to sabotage candidates selected to stand at GE13; the leaders know that those who are deprived of the opportunity will be envious of those who supplanted them, and they will be motivated to seek revenge against the latter. This may be cutting off their noses to spite their faces because the act of sabotage can result in a defeat for the Umno candidate and therefore the party, but they don’t care. The point is, they lost their chance to stand – and with it their passport to wealth, like the extra percentage they load onto the costs of public projects to line their own pockets with or the kickbacks they get for giving approvals. Their supporters, who will also lose out in terms of influence, business opportunites, etc, will go along with their act of sabotage. Why else is our prime minister merely half-hearted in weeding out corruption? Because it’s too deeply rooted within his own party.

So how can we continue to give our votes to such a party or its coalition partners, like the MCA, the MIC, Gerakan, PBB, PBS, etc?

Besides, Umno leaders and their supporters have lately been trying to threaten Malaysians into voting for BN or face the possibility of another May 13. This, they know, works on the simple-minded ones and on non-Malays who fear unnecessary trouble and would have no qualms giving in regardless of their true sentiments.

Should we not put a stop to such irresponsible and unscrupulous measures to frighten the masses? More important, should we not stop once and for all the exploitation of racial sentiments that BN has been indulging in for the past decades?

The choice at GE13, to me, is clear. A new government will assuredly give us reform – if only to win our approval and continued support. A two-coalition system coming to reality will make politics more competitive and beneficial to the rakyat.

We may expect the media to be liberated; our institutions to be reformed; local council elections to be reinstated; academic freedom in universities to be encouraged; the repeal of the Universities and University Colleges Act (UUCA); the return of open tenders for public projects; lower car prices.

Meanwhile, the current government is merely offering the carrot of cash handouts in the form of BR1M, which it says it will give more of if it wins GE13. Bribing the rakyat seems to be what it’s more capable of doing than formulating reform. Nonetheless, this strategy might well work, especially on those who need the cash.

But even so, we need to weigh that cash bribe against the larger benefit that a change of government could bring. Which would you cherish more? Which might bring better value in the longer run?

Besides, PR also has a plan, inscribed in its manifesto Buku Jingga (Orange Book), that pledges to address the needs of household incomes below RM1,500. This could be a more sustainable approach to combating poverty than periodic cash handouts.

Let us recall then the words of Peter Mandelson, one of the architects of the New Labour Party in Britain : “Elections come and go, and governments come and go. And that’s what democracy is all about.”

When we go to vote, let’s keep that in mind. It’s not a big deal to let a government go and bring in a new one. If the new one doesn’t do its job, we can let it go at the next general election. That’s our democratic right, so let’s exercise it.

Let’s just be sure that come GE13, we make the right choice.

* Kee Thuan Chye is the author of the bestselling book No More Bullshit, Please, We’re All Malaysians, and the latest volume, Ask for No Bullshit, Get Some More!

                This entry was posted on Friday, 22 March 2013, 3:42 pm and is filed under
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Kit Siang’s ambition

by
Tay Tian Yan

The Malaysian Insider

March 21, 2013

MARCH 21 — DAP parliamentary leader Lim Kit Siang has, after all, engaged in politics for half a century. He is indeed a daring veteran politician of Malaysia, just like Lian Po, a prominent military general of Zhao during the Warring States period of China.

Reputable Lian Po was an outstanding general who had fought in battles for decades. He was still ambitious even in his old age.

He was a semi-retired general when he was 70 years old. However, since there was no general to lead the troops to fight against Qin, someone actually suggested Lian Po. The emperor of Zhao frowned and asked: “Is the old Lian Po still able to eat?”

He then sent someone to find it out.

Lian Po knew that the emperor was trying to find out his condition, he thus invited the scout to stay for a meal. He ate a bucket of rice and 10 pounds of meat in front of the scout and gave a horse-riding performance to prove that he was still very strong.

However, the scout was bribed by his political enemy. He told the emperor that Lian Po could still eat, but he went to release himself three times during the meal.

The emperor then thought Lian Po was no longer capable and thus he dared not field him for the battle. Zhao was later defeated by Qin in the Battle of Changping.

Lim Kit Siang is as ambitious as Lian Po and he is more fortunate compared to Lian Po as he does not have to report to a superior like the emperor of Zhao. Although he is already 72 years old, he can still contest in the Gelang Patah parliamentary seat as he wishes.

He is outstanding enough to convince everyone.

Comparatively, Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim would not lead the fight in Sabah while PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang would not contest in Pahang to expand the influence of PAS. Lim possesses a significantly different vision and courage.

Lim wishes to lead the DAP to lay a bridgehead in Johor and expand the party’s influence to the state. Although it is an old trick, the most important point is, it works.

The DAP cannot simply assign someone to lead the vanguard but must have a political star who can attract attention and gain voters’ support.

Gelang Patah has been chosen as the fighting location while Johor will be the battlefield. Sentiments and election results of the whole state will be affected.

In particular, Johor is the last turf of the MCA. Today, however, the strong wind of anti-establishment sentiments in the Chinese community can even uproot old trees.

If fact, it is a sure-win strategy for the DAP, as well as for Lim himself.

Johor constituencies basically have balanced racial ratios. However, Gelang Getah has more Chinese voters, about 53 per cent of the total voters. With the DAP’s momentum and Lim’s charisma, it should not be a problem to gain 70 per cent or even 80 per cent of Chinese votes.

He can win the seat as long as the number of Malay and Indian votes is not lower than 25 per cent.

Once the trend is set off in Gelang Patah, it could drive victory in other Johor constituencies, including Kulai, Kluang, Tanjung Piai, Pasir Gudang, Tebrau, Muar, Segamat and Bakri.

Even if Lim loses, he has passed the baton to his beloved son while his own political career has passed the peak. He has nothing to lose but will only gain historical status.

Although his eyesight and hearing may be failing, certainly Lim, who has just celebrated his 72nd birthday, can still eat well. — mysinchew.com

                This entry was posted on Friday, 22 March 2013, 4:04 pm and is filed under
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So what has Najib really transformed, Nazir?

by Martin Jalleh

                This entry was posted on Friday, 22 March 2013, 8:20 am and is filed under
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The Coming Tsunami

by Allan CF Goh

The Coming Tsunami

Nobody saw the storm coming,

But it did, with people’s blessing.

Up North, there was a tsunami,

Which united folks, just like me.

It brought renewed hopes to people,

Held high as the highest steeple.

Now the tsunami is spreading;

Johoreans are now expecting,

A new dawning for their belief,

To realize their hope, relief.

Let the wind of change start to blow,

Let our dear nation grow and glow.

Like the myriad drops of water,

When split, are easily scattered,

But unified, form the ocean,

Ever powerful, with option.

Folks, too, when massed and united,

Can make scoundrels flee, defeated.

Like the ocean of tiny drops,

When pushed with a wakened complot,

Will form the mighty tsunami.

Unite all the you, he and me,

To create the same mighty impart,

With a real strength of great compact.

 People of sane mind, united,

Acting as one, consolidated,

Can raise the tsunami-like storm,

All conquering, righteous and strong,

To sweep out all the corruptions,

Flush out the discriminations.

Hope for that better tomorrow,

Must start its flight like the arrow,

Sprang with righteous, unified might,

In the direction of what’s right,

For our future generations,

Free of unfair deprivations.

Johoreans, stand up, be counted.

Let victory be celebrated,

For the start of a true nation,

Full of unity, compassion.

Let moral people lead the State,

To cleanse racism from the slate.

Let not corruptions rule the day.

Rid exploitations without delay.

Come this general election,

Make the very best selection,

Of people of integrity,

To rule our land with sanity.

By a Johorean

                This entry was posted on Friday, 22 March 2013, 8:33 am and is filed under
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What about our economic progress?

by Martin Jalleh

                This entry was posted on Friday, 22 March 2013, 3:51 pm and is filed under
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19-Day Countdown to 13GE – Najib will  commit  supreme abuse of power if he toys with the UMNO/BN “Dirty Tricks” department with the ploy of  illegally banning DAP to exclude Rocket symbol in 13GE as it will be the “last straw that break’s the camel’s back”

In response to a question from a reporter after visiting Taman University market in Gelang Patah yesterday morning, I stressed that there is absolutely no legal, constitutional or any legitimate ground for any punitive action by the Registrar of Societies against the DAP, whether suspension or deregistration.

The DAP Central Executive Committee (CEC) elections last December had been above-board and a  transparent and  democratic process although there was an  honest mistake from a computer glitch when announcing the results.

The DAP CEC has no doubt that there can be no justification whatsoever for the Registrar of Societies to take any action  against the DAP for the party elections, especially as the DAP leadership had not received any complaint from party delegates on the CEC elections while the DAP  had fully co-operated with the Registrar of Societies with regard to queries and requests for clarification.

This is why I am baffled how the Utusan Malaysia today could carry a front-page headline report that the ROS were facing “difficulties in its probe” on the DAP CEC elections last December.

The Utusan Malaysia front-page headline story has proven right my suspicion of  “high-level conspiracy afoot in BN ‘dirty tricks’ department to suspend or ban DAP so that the Rocket symbol could not be used in the 13GE”.

The Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak and the BN leaders have no confidence about their prospects in the 13GE and they are toying  with various unprecedented “dirty tricks” for UMNO/BN to try to steal the 13GE.

The latest issue of the
Economist
 on the 13GE carried a report
“Malaysia’s looming election – Video nasties”
 which said: “In fact, the outcome is in doubt, for the first time in Malaysia’s history”. (The Star spun the Economist report with the headline:
 “Barisan tipped for elections victory”.

The Economist report said:

“Mr Najib has the advantages of incumbency—such as deciding when to call elections.”

In fact, the very opposite is the case, as  Najib has exhausted all the advantages of incumbency, such as “deciding when to call elections”, because of an unprecedented  series  of inconsistencies and   indecisiveness causing him to miss his most ideal timing for the 13GE, i.e. in 2011 including his one-time favourite date of 11.11.11.

The question now is whether Najib will continue to lead an “expired government” without Parliamentary dissolution despite the automatic dissolution of the BN-controlled Negri Sembilan State Assembly on Tuesday, 26th March.

When the final date for Parliament’s dissolution comes, whether end-March, early-April or even April 11, public interests on the subject  will be minimal in Najib’s four-year premiership.

Regardless of when Parliament will be dissolved for the holding of 13GE, Najib should be cautioned against getting so desperate as to succumb to the temptation to commit the   grossest abuse of power recommended by the UMNO/BN “Dirty Tricks” department to exclude the use of the Rocket symbol in the 13GE through illegal and unconstitutional suspension or ban of the DAP!

The UMNO/BN “Dirty Tricks” department may think that this ploy will inflict  supreme damage on Pakatan Rakyat  by excluding the use of the Rocket symbol in the 13GE ( as elections will be over even if DAP finally vindicates itself and wins a legal suit against the Barisan Nasional government in  protracted litigation in the courts of law) – but this may prove to be most fatal mistake of all by Najib in his four years as Prime Minister.

This is because it may usher a new political configuration that will prove to be the undoing of UMNO/BN, not only the last straw that breaks the camel’s back with regard to public outrage to demand the end  the regime of abuses of power in the citadels of power in Putrajaya, but also contributing to an hitherto unthinkable consolidation of Pakatan Rakyat, as for instance, my contesting on PAS or PKR symbol in the 13GE!

                This entry was posted on Saturday, 23 March 2013, 4:50 pm and is filed under
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BN has delivered – Record High Household Debts!

by Martin Jalleh

                This entry was posted on Saturday, 23 March 2013, 11:08 am and is filed under
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Bolehland – a nation of bankrupts!

by Martin Jalleh

                This entry was posted on Saturday, 23 March 2013, 9:27 pm and is filed under
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Malaysia’s looming election – Video nasties

Economist

Mar 23rd 2013 | KUALA LUMPUR

 – A two-year election campaign nears its climax

WITH a tight election coming up, it is politics as usual in Malaysia—only more so. This month alone has seen the opposition accused of colluding in a foreign invasion of the state of Sabah in Borneo; the death of a private investigator, reviving stories of the grisly murder in 2006 of a beautiful Mongolian woman linked to a friend of the prime minister, Najib Razak; the leader of the opposition, Anwar Ibrahim, denying that he was one of two men appearing in grainy pictures online in an affectionate clinch; and a film shot on hidden cameras that appears to show large-scale corruption in the government of the other Malaysian state in Borneo, Sarawak.

Sailing blithely above the mud and filth that make Malaysian political waters so murky, Mr Najib went on national television on March 19th to deliver the scorecard on the “transformation programme” his government has implemented. He had a good story to tell, of robust economic growth of 5.6% in 2012, poverty virtually eliminated, inequality reduced and 400 legal cases against corruption initiated. And he was able to announce that a scheme to give cash handouts to poorer households will become an annual event.

All should be set fair, you might think, for Mr Najib’s ruling coalition, the Barisan Nasional (BN), to romp home again at the election, as it has done in every ballot since independence in 1957. Mr Najib is expected to dissolve parliament any day now, with the voting to follow in mid-April after a brief official campaign period (the unofficial one has now lasted two years or more). If he does not dissolve parliament, its term will expire at the end of April, and the election must then be held by the end of June.

In fact, the outcome is in doubt, for the first time in Malaysia’s history.
 In the election five years ago the opposition coalition, the Pakatan Rakyat, for the first time deprived the BN of the two-thirds majority that allows it to change the constitution. That led to the downfall of the BN prime minister of the day, Abdullah Badawi. His replacement by Mr Najib was decided by their party, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), which represents the Malays (who make up about 55% of the population) and dominates the BN. In 2008 Pakatan actually won a slight majority of the popular vote in peninsular Malaysia (ie, excluding Sabah and Sarawak). Affirmative-action policies introduced more than 40 years ago to favour Malays and other indigenous groups over the Chinese and Indian minorities were no longer enough to ensure an overwhelming victory for the ruling coalition.

The BN says it would like to campaign on Mr Najib’s record of relative economic success, modest liberalising reform and statesmanship. The opposition wants to keep the focus on issues of fairness and corruption. It can boast of good performances by governments in some of the four (out of 13) states it controls in Malaysia’s federal system. But its best hope is that, after more than five decades of BN rule, many Malaysians want change.

This time, some Pakatan members express utter confidence that it will come. That is probably bluster. The odds still favour the BN. Constituency sizes give greater weight to voters in the countryside, who tend to be more conservative than the wired, cosmopolitan and cynical residents of the cities. Mr Najib has the advantages of incumbency—such as deciding when to call elections. Waiting has deprived the opposition of the chance of postponing elections in the four states it governs. Simultaneous elections tend to favour the BN, with its greater resources.

The risk in waiting has been that unexpected events might intervene. One such has been the extraordinary saga of the “invasion” of Sabah in February by nearly 200 gunmen calling themselves followers of a pretender to the title of the Sultan of Sulu, whose holder in the southern Philippines once ruled Sabah as well. What seemed at first a kind of practical joke turned into an extremely ugly confrontation, in which 62 of the intruders and ten men from the Malaysian security forces have died.

The suspicions of opposition involvement (vigorously denied) stem from the composition of Sabah’s population. A commission is investigating the award of Malaysian citizenship in the 1990s to about 800,000 Filipino Muslims. The BN is accused of trying to change the ethnic make-up of Sabah, and of importing potential voters. Sabahans of Filipino origin, however, might be alienated by a fierce crackdown on the intruders. Perhaps with that in mind, coverage of the mopping-up operation on state-controlled television stations has been low-key. Indeed, even if the invasion might harm the BN in Sabah, the government’s handling of it may have helped it overall.

Nor will the government be much worried by the impact of the death from a heart attack on March 15th of a private investigator who in 2008 had accused the prime minister of having been involved with a Mongolian woman. His death has revived interest in the story of her murder in 2006 by two members of an elite commando corps. Mr Najib has sworn on the Koran that he never met the woman, and although the case continues to create excited chatter online, it is ignored by the mainstream press. In opinion polls, Mr Najib remains very popular, with an approval rating of 61% in one recent survey.

The steady stream of improbable allegations of sexual impropriety against Mr Anwar, however, although always denied, may have eroded his standing. They may also create tensions within Pakatan, whose three components are Mr Anwar’s multi-ethnic party, a conservative Islamist one and the Democratic Action Party, dominated by members of the ethnic-Chinese minority. Perversely, some Chinese remain worried by Mr Anwar for a different reason: his early days as a firebrand Islamist student leader.

That he still has some chance of becoming prime minister is testimony to widespread anger at the corruption endemic in Malaysia. The hidden-camera film on Sarawak, produced by Global Witness, a London-based NGO, produced shocking evidence of state-government criminality in land deals. Its many viewers in Malaysia are furious. But they are not surprised.

                This entry was posted on Saturday, 23 March 2013, 8:49 am and is filed under
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One Small stride by Kit Siang, One Giant Step nearer to Putrajaya

by Sakmongkol AK47

Thursday, 21 March 2013

The return of Lim Kit Siang to Johor should not matter to UMNO and BN. Why should it cause worry? Isn’t it mathematically impossible for PR to go from 1 seat to 15 parliamentary seats?  The Johor Chinese are different. They have an unshakeable allegiance to the state. So the Johor Chinese are by definition, naturally indifferent to what is happening around in the country.

The Chinese are a very practical people says Chua Soi Lek. Soi lek must of course be referring to the Chinese apparent indifference to his sexual escapades. By that reasoning, the Chinese must also be indifferent to whatever stories are said of Anwar Ibrahim and they should be indifferent to Najib’s overextended and boring self-praising assessment of his Alphabet Soup vision. Ah Jib Gor does what Ah Jib Gor does best-tell tall stories mostly about himself.

Being practical they want to know, whether we can establish a good government. Which will practise good governance. Consists of good, selfless and dedicated people. They want to go about making wealth under a government that upholds the rule of law. Which in turn require that the institutions that safeguard the rule and implementation of law be strong and independent and are established on principles of integrity. The Chinese want to live peacefully with the other major races in Malaysia. These are hallmarks of practical people.

I don’t think being practical means, they accept corruption, wheeling and dealing with the powers that be, accepting hegemony from others. If they are like that- that’s not being practical but being sly and acting like hustlers. The ‘thing’ that made the Chinese practical is economic independence. So being practical as in economically independent, the Chinese can exercise wider choices. They will chose to side with PRakyat. That’s practical and acknowledging reality.

I hope the PR people are not learning from the same further maths book that BN uses to say that if DAP wins all the parliamentary seats it contests, DAP can form the next government. Now, where is that damn maths book?

If the DAP is given 50 parliamentary seats and wins them all, DAP will form the next government, and this country will be a Republic with Kit Siang as President, Christianity as the official religion, Malays will not be able to pray in suraus and mosques. Yes, DAP must be learning from the same maths book to even imagine PR can win up to 15 parliament seats and anything more than 16 state seats.

The truth is, we don’t use the same antiquated maths book. We are reading a book scripted and written by the people that says,  we the people,  have had enough with corrupt UMNO led government.

BN has a bottomless war chest. It has the loyalty of the Elections Commissions which is the 15th BN component party. It owns the legitimate coercive forces in the country. It owns the media and is campaigning all year long for each day since 2008. It must have built up an insurmountable lead. It has the loyalty and fealty of the million new Malaysians. Najib has a string of media hyped achievements. His achievements through his Alphabet Soup are spectacular. Things are so good that no one can defeat BN.

With all these plusses, people are bewildered as to why does the PM delay elections? Why, why? It’s a shoo-in for UMNO and BN.

Yet, the news that Lim Kit Siang is contesting in Gelang Patah has sent shockwaves throughout the country. MCA leaders behave as MCA people do – taking pains to denounce that strategic move. But they do so from the deadly embrace of paranoia. It begins by self deluding itself and members by retreating into its comfort zone insisting that Johor Chinese are different.  And so we ask, being poor and marginalized in Johor isn’t the same of being in the same situation elsewhere? Are Johor Chinese so thick to not appreciate that the country is going to the dogs?

The fact is – Kit Siang’s return to Johor IS bad news to MCA. If not why is the need to even lament that DAP is contesting against MCA candidates? Why should anyone not do so? We have the chance to wipe MCA out entirely. DAP does so to replace MCA as the party of choice for the Chinese. It’s not out to prove right the MCA version of a multiracial party. DAP is out to replace MCA and that is worrisome for MCA.

It signals the end of MCA in the south and elsewhere in Malaysia. For MCA to get even 2 parliamentary seats will now be difficult. Why should Kit Siang’s entry to Johor politics cause so much consternation when he is after all a touch and go and hit and run politician? 72 year old Kit Siang is just a political guerrilla.

MCA’s fear is understandable- it stands to lose all the seats it now currently holds in Johor.  The annihilation of MCA in Johor will confirm what the people feel about the party- that MCA is no longer relevant to Malaysian Chinese. To the UMNO Malays, MCA is just its errand and water boy.

The move by Kit Siang has the immediate effect of galvanizing Chinese support and picking up of the undecided voters. Kit Siang’s return to Johor is giving meaning and purpose to the Malaysian Chinese.

The Chinese now has a choice- to be an MCA Chinese, lackey and errand boy for UMNO living under UMNO hegemony and domination or to become a better Chinese and be part of the political process to kick out the corrupt government. I am sure, being practical people the Chinese understand that we do not inherit this world from our forbears, but borrow it from our children. We owe it to our Children and progeny to make this world a better world. There is a better world without UMNO!

It will have a positive impact on the Johor Malays too. For too long they have under the yoke of UMNO hegemony and allowed themselves be indoctrinated to think in terms of ethnic calculations. Malay votes for Pakatan will even scale up to 50% because they would not want to be left behind in determining the future of this country.

I pity those commentators who keep insisting that MCA and UMNO people will make sure the Chinese will not suppot DAP/PR. These people don’t have any inkling on what’s happening in the south. My friend Dato Nurjazlan is in for a surprise. When I was there recently, his detractors are coming not from the opposition parties but from within the ranks of UMNO. But he is all right as he has his business to direct his mind and body.

As to the rest who inhabit the dream world, allow me to enlighten them.

Even kit Siang was pleasantly surprised to see at least 3000 people attend his lunchtime ceramah in Batu Pahat. That’s lunchtime under the sweltering heat at the Essential Café or Lau Ti Fang at Jalan Mustafa, Batu Pahat.  Tony Pua had to go out of the restaurant a few times to seek relief from the heat.

What does the gathering and open support mean? It means that the Chinese are solidly behind Kit Siang in his efforts to spearhead PR’s challenge in Johor. The attendees to the luncheon ceramah would now feel gratified to learn that Kit Siang a former student of Batu Pahat High School is coming home to Johor. It’s the return of the fortunate son.

Kit Siang was doing 4 ceramahs already when he arrived at another gathering in Kluang Johor at around 10 pm. The entire Chinese population in Kluang must have been there. PAS supporters were also on hand to show support for DAP. It appears that Kluang will likely go back to the days when the legendary Lee Kaw was MP for Kluang.

The candidate for Bandar Penggaram was almost brought to tears when attending a ceramah at Kg Linau in Batu Pahat. She is a Batu Pahat native and has contested the DUN seat for the last 4 elections. She was at a loss for words seeing the reception she got from the largely Malay audience. She has never been to this part of Batu Pahat and the support she received that night was so positively given. Malays no longer fear the DAP – that fear being a product of paranoia and bigotry from UMNO.

                This entry was posted on Saturday, 23 March 2013, 2:01 am and is filed under
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Political rivals in a strategic battle

— Lim Sue Goan

The Malaysian Insider

March 22, 2013

MARCH 22 — BN has made an all-out effort to create a feel-good atmosphere but its political strategy is not as flexible as Pakatan Rakyat’s.

Pakatan Rakyat has started to unveil its candidates and display its strength. BN, meanwhile, is still carefully selecting candidates and considering constituency exchanges, causing election campaign activities in some constituencies to now lag behind.

Take the DAP as an example. Some candidates have been decided such as Negri Sembilan DAP chairman and Lobak state assemblymen Anthony Loke, who will be contesting the Chennah state seat, party parliamentary leader Lim Kit Siang will contest the Gelang Patah parliamentary seat and Himpunan Hijau chairman Wong Tack will contest the Bentong parliamentary seat.

Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim had also announced on Wednesday some PKR parliamentary candidates. His daughter Nurul Izzah will seek re-election in Lembah Pantai and PKR strategic director Mohd Rafizi Ramli will contest the Pandan parliamentary seat. Also, five Sarawak parliamentary candidates have also been decided.

There are also some signs showing the deployment of PAS candidates, including party vice-president Salahuddin Ayub who will be contesting in Johor while former Perak Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin will be contesting the Changkat Jering state seat.

As for the BN, the candidate list remains unclear. It was reported that MCA vice-presidents Datuk Seri Dr Ng Yen Yen and Gan Ping Sieu would not be contesting in their original or preferred parliamentary constituencies. Gan’s supporters even rushed to the MCA headquarters with the hope to change the situation.

There might be undercurrents in Kluang forcing Gan to shift and contest in Tebrau. However, he has been rejected by members of the local division.

Umno is eyeballing the Wangsa Maju parliamentary seat while the MCA is not willing to make a concession. Regardless of who is going to be fielded to contest the seat, it will trigger discontentment of the other party. If this is not suppressed, it would be unfavourable to BN, and PKR candidate Datuk Dr Tan Kee Kwong could then wait for redemption.

In addition, there are also different views on whether former MCA president Datuk Seri Ong Tee Keat will seek re-election in the Pandan parliamentary constituency under the BN banner.

Pakatan Rakyat leaders are also taking the strategy of making a breakthrough to drive its election campaign. The decision to field Lim Kit Siang in Gelang Patah has disrupted the MCA’s original plans. Who would be fielded by BN to counter the DAP’s attacks in Chinese-majority constituencies? No one among MCA candidates can rival Lim. The MCA is now hastily defending against the DAP’s strong attack.

Lim has started to canvass for votes in Gelang Patah and once the Parliament is dissolved, he can then help his compatriots in other states or constituencies.

After Lim shifted to contest in Johor, Anwar said he might not seek re-election in Permatang Pauh and instead may contest in Perak or Selangor.

Permatang Pauh is the political base of Anwar and thus, regardless of who is contesting, the seat will be kept. It can help to create a momentum and seek an additional seat if Anwar contests in other states.

It might be a move to confuse BN when Anwar said he might leave Penang to contest in other states, but it has reflected that the Pakatan Rakyat’s strategy is more flexible. If Pakatan Rakyat leaders disperse to different frontline states, BN will have to develop a different strategy to cope.

Basically, the three component parties of the Pakatan Rakyat have placed their leaders in different states, while Umno’s mentri besar candidate for Selangor remains a mystery. BN has been too dependent on coalition chairman Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s personal charm while the image of individual leaders is not obvious enough.

Another example showing that Pakatan Rakyat’s election preparation progress is ahead of BN’s is that Pakatan Rakyat revealed its election manifesto on February 25.

Based on BN’s election preparation progress, the changes in Pakatan Rakyat’s strategy and Najib’s cautious style, the date to dissolve the Parliament might be further postponed as the BN wants to make a sally only when it has greatest confidence. — mysinchew.com

                This entry was posted on Saturday, 23 March 2013, 2:22 am and is filed under
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‘Probe red and green ICs on electoral roll’

Malaysiakini

12:39PM Mar 22, 2013

DAP election strategist Ong Kian Ming has urged the Election Commission (EC) to investigate the existence of old red and green identity card numbers in the electoral roll.

While acknowledging that the holders of these old identity card (IC) numbers may have since gained citizenship, Ong pointed out the fact that they were found in constituencies with large numbers of IC numbers deemed “problematic” by the National Registration Department (NRD) was a cause for concern.

 “When we investigated the latest electoral roll of the fourth quarter of 2012, we found that there were 7,029 voters with old identity card numbers belonging to the red IC range and 446 voters with old IC numbers belonging to the green IC range.

“This means that there could potentially be 7,475 people who are non-Malaysian residents and not eligible to register to vote but who have been put on the electoral roll,” Ong (left) said.

His checked the electoral roll for old red identity card numbers from H6000000 to H6040000 and old green identity card numbers H8000000 to H8040000, which were provided by Sabah and Sarawak NRD IC division chief Ruslan Alias during the royal commission of inquiry on illegal immigrants in Sabah.

“As such, we call upon the NRD and the EC to conduct an immediate joint investigation into these 7,475 ‘red’ and ‘green’ voters to verify that these registered voters who were once – or perhaps still are – non-Malaysian permanent and temporary residents have been granted citizenship through the proper procedures and are thus eligible to remain on the electoral roll,” he said.

Malaysian citizens are issued blue identity cards (now called MyKad), permanent residents get red cards (MyPR) while temporary residents get green identity cards (MyKas).

‘60,000 dubious voters’

On Tuesday, Ong, who is also the Malaysian Electoral Roll Analysis Project (Merap) director, said 60,653 of the 130,459 old identity card numbers deemed “problematic” by the NRD were still in the electoral roll.

 He said the bulk of these voters were in parliamentary constituencies in the east coast of Sabah, the top five  being Silam, Kalabakan, Tawau, Semporna and Libaran.

Ong said a similar pattern was found during Merap’s investigation into the red and green old IC numbers in Sabah that were provided by NRD.

“Not surprisingly, the seats with the highest number and percentage of these ‘red’ and ‘green’ voters are also the seats with the highest numbers and percentages of problematic old ICs.

“In fact, the top three seats for ‘red’ and ‘green’ voters and for the “problematic” ICs are the same – namely P188 Silam, P190 Tawau and P191 Kalabakan,” Ong said.

These three seats collectively hold more than half or 52.6 percent of the ‘red’ and ‘green’ voters ,with a breakdown of 1,704 or 22.8 percent for Kalabakan, 1,326 or 17.7 percent for Tawau and 903 or 12.1 percent for Silam.

Ong said it was also found that 20 of such voters, 19 of them ‘red’ IC holders and one a ‘green’ IC holder were located in Kampung Tanjung Labian, which is the site where security forces are battling Sulu invaders.

These voters, he added, were found to have received their citizenship through dubious means and should be removed from the electoral roll in the interest of a fair election in Sabah.

                This entry was posted on Saturday, 23 March 2013, 11:21 am and is filed under
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Salute Kit Siang for going for broke

by Dr Chris Anthony

Malaysiakini

Mar 20, 2013

The decision by Lim Kit Siang, the DAP adviser and veteran opposition leader, comes as no surprise from a politician of his calibre.

This is not the first time he has chosen to take such risks but this is the first time his risk is most significant in changing the political landscape of the country.

His willingness to contest in the high-risk Gelang Patah seat in Johor may well initiate a political tsunami from the south that could result in a win for Pakatan Rakyat for the first time in the history of the nation.

We salute Kit Siang for his boldness to take that risk not many politicians will be willing to undertake.

At 72 years he knows very well that this may his last chance to serve the nation as an MP.

He knows well too that a win in this crucial election could earn him the post of deputy prime minister.

He could have chosen a much safer seat to ensure success but instead he has opted for the more difficult path to bring change to the whole nation.

In his words, “This is not an easy battle… but it is worth (fighting for) as it is for our goal, as well as for the nation and people,” he admits the monumental task ahead and he is prepared to face the challenge.

Yes, it is not easy but he has chosen the path that he believes will bring good to the nation and the people.

The Getang Patah seat in Johor is a stronghold of MCA and BN and Pakatan has lost it with comfortable majorities in 2004 and 2008.

Kit Siang is going to have a tough time against the might of the BN this time around as defeating him will be in their own home ground will be a big morale booster for MCA and BN.

We wish him every success and pray that the people of Gelang Patah will rise above race and creed, put aside their differences and reward this exemplary Malaysian for all his sacrifices to the country for over four decades.

                This entry was posted on Saturday, 23 March 2013, 6:45 am and is filed under
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Sarawak’s shame

by
P Gunasegaram

Malaysiakini

3:05PM Mar 22, 2013

QUESTION TIME It is a common thing in Malaysia for many politicians to live way beyond their means. And although there are ways and means to check anyone’s wealth simply by tracking down their assets, these people live in relative peace being troubled neither by the police nor by their conscience.

The anecdotal evidence has been there that corruption is a great problem, especially grand corruption of which virtually nothing has been done. And this has been greatest in Sabah and Sarawak where those in power live with fabulous riches and are associated with other rich, but often infamous people.

Even for someone who expects that all these corruptions routinely take place, the recent graphic revelations about Sarawak Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud’s family members and the ease with which NGO Global Witness was able to obtain video recordings damning them was shocking to me.

If you have not seen the video yet, go here to look at it. It is a case of such  blatant complacency, arrogance and cockiness showing that the perpetrators were super confident that they could get away with such things.

The story and reactions to it had been carried in Malaysiakini over several days and while there was public outrage, the official reaction to the entire issue was muted.

Here, they were an array of people from Taib’s close relatives, to those who claim to be close to him, filmed as they discussed with a bogus investor planted by Global Witness on how to obtain land illegally, log it and then plant it with palm oil.

That they were so ready to reveal such details, which showed how they would break and circumvent laws to people who must have been total strangers to them, must indicate that they are not even cautious about these things, reflecting their belief that they are above the law and untouchable.

The sad thing is that in Malaysia, where everything is possible, they may well be right. Malaysians have seen pictures and videos before. None have brought anyone to account. Pictures of lawyer VK Lingam taking a holiday with Chief Justice Eusuff Chin did nothing to either party while Lingam caught on video talking to a ‘senior judge’ about fixing cases also came out empty headed.

A sex tape caused Chua Soi Lek’s resignation as Health Minister in 2008. He also resigned from his MCA positions. But now he is MCA president – the party delegates seemed to have forgiven him.

Rich, but still so poor

That aside, it is easy to understand why Sarawak has some of the richest people in the country, and yet is one of the poorest states in Malaysia.

Basically, land, forests and natural resources are Sarawak’s greatest estates. But what is happening is that acre upon acre of it is being assigned over to logging companies, and once they are logged over, they become palm oil land. In fact, oil palm growers look upon Sarawak as the last frontier for getting land in Malaysia.

Global Witness says that Sarawak exports more logs than South America and Africa combined!

In collusion with the authorities who get a cut from each deal, tycoons get the land for logging first, and then in the second stage, they are turned over for oil palm and other crops. Very little of the wealth of the land gets into the state government coffers because they are offered cheaply in return for direct gratification to those in authority. The video from Global Witness shows how it is done in considerable detail.

And it emerges that much of the money crosses hands in neighbouring, otherwise squeaky-clean Singapore, which has done a grand job of cutting corruption in its country, but has no compunctions about getting into its system money corruptly obtained from neighbouring countries.

But at the end of the day, the blame is clearly ours. How can we continue to tolerate such blatant, grand corruption in our midst? Do we have so little moral courage that we are no longer shocked into action by these repeated plunderings of everyone’s resources?

Perhaps part of the lack of outrage is the fact that much of it is not reported outside of the online media, with most mainstream media having close ownership and other affiliations with ruling political parties.

Going by what has happened in the past, the most likely outcome of this latest video and its revelations will be expressions of shock and promises to investigate. When the dust settles down, everything is forgotten and life returns to normal with yet another episode of a major wrong not righted.

But every such intentional lapse of memory and corresponding action adds yet another point towards the day of reckoning. If the reversal of this process does not take place and the dam continues to build up, it is only a matter of time before it bursts.

Such enrichment of a few and the corresponding impoverishment of the majority always has only one result – disaster for everyone.

                This entry was posted on Saturday, 23 March 2013, 11:15 am and is filed under
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Walk your talk on corruption, Najib

Joseph Tawie | March 22, 2013

Free Malaysia Today

P
rime Minister Najib Tun Razak is under tremendous pressure to act against Sarawak’s Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud’s alleged abuses and corruption.

KUCHING: Sarawak opposition DAP has called on Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak to “walk his talk” in fighting corruption which was one of his national key result areas (NKRA) launched in 2010.

Reminding Najib, party secretary Chong Chieng Jen said: “It is time for Najib to prove that he walks the talk when it comes to fighting corruption as one of his NKRA.

“If Najib is serious about fighting corruption as one of his NKRAs, he should immediately do the following:

(1) arrest all the personalities mentioned in the Global Witness video clip for investigation;

(2) obtain a full disclosure of the amount of state land being alienated to Taib’s family members’ companies at fractions or even as low as 10% of market prices; and,

3) freeze all bank accounts and assist personalities mentioned in the video clip.

He said there were ample laws in place to facilitate the investigation.

Chong named some of the laws as the Anti-Laundering and Anti Terrorism Financing Act 2001, Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission Act and even the Income Tax Act can be used for the purpose.

“In fairness to all parties involved, investigation should be commenced immediately and to be completed within one month. If the suspects are innocent, they should be released and their names cleared.

“If there is prima facie evidence of guilt, the suspects should be prosecuted in court immediately after the completion of the investigation,” said Chong, alluding to the “evidence” of corruption recorded, albeit covertly, by London-based NGO Global Witness.

The video saw Taib’s cousins and lawyers allegedly detailing a land deal and the processes involved including how to avoid taxes.

Chong said the ball is now in Najib’s court for him to show that he means business when he talks about his Government Transformation Programme (GTP).

“Under Najib’s GTP introduced in 2010, one of the NKRAs identified is ‘fighting corruption’. Since then no high-profile leader in Sarawak has been prosecuted and or convicted,” he said.

Taib must resign

Meanwhile, the global anti-corruption watchdog Transparency International is calling for Taib’s immediate resignation.

“Those being investigated should resign first so that investigations can be carried out without any influence and interference by those in power,” said TI Malaysia secretary-general Josie M Fernandez.

“We hope that the prime minister will call on Taib to resign as chief minister of Sarawak until investigation by MACC is completed,” she said.

According to Swiss-based NGO, Bruno Manser Fund, Taib’s closest family members have ties to over 400 companies in 25 countries and offshore finance centres. Their assests are valued at US$21 billion (RM63 billion).

                This entry was posted on Saturday, 23 March 2013, 9:27 am and is filed under
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18-day countdown to 13GE – Cautious welcome for RCI on Suluk intrusion into Sabah but it must not be a political ploy for electioneering purpose and should start public hearing only after 13GE

DAP welcomes the announcement by the Home Minister, Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein that the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak would be announcing the formation  of a Royal Commission of Inquiry (RCI) to investigate the Sulu intrusion of Lahad Datu and that details of the RCI would be revealed tomorrow.

DAP’s welcome is however tinged with caution as the RCI into the Suluk intrusion in Lahad Datu and Semporna, which has caused the lives of 10 national heroes from the police and army, must be an independent, impartial and professional one, and should not be become a political and electioneering tool to serve the political agenda of any political interests, whether Barisan Nasional or Pakatan Rakyat.

In fact, this is an occasion for all political forces, whether Barisan Nasional or Pakatan Rayat, to put aside their partisan differences and  unite as one patriotic Malaysian movement not only to pay tribute and honour the ten national heroes who gave their lives in the defence of national sovereignty and to ensure the safety of the people of Sabah, but also to give unstinting support to the security forces to adopt all necessary measures to protect national sovereignty and defend security of the people and security forces personnel.

Let us not blemish the great sacrifices of our 10 national heroes with  petty divisions and agendas. Let all Malaysians, including the PM, DPM, Cabinet Ministers, political leaders whether BN or PR, rise above their  partisan differences and unite as one patriotic Malaysian people on this issue.

Pakatan Rakyat leaders are prepare to do this. Are Barisan Nasional leaders, including the PM, DPM, Cabinet Ministers and the Sabah Chief Minister, prepared to do the same?

This is why Pakatan Rakyat leadership had called for an emergency meeting of Parliament and an all-party roundtable conference to fully pay tribute and honour the fallen heroes, declare full support to the security forces in all necessary measures to defend national sovereignty and ensure the safety of the people of Sabah including security personnel stationed in Sabah; give national commitment that the bereaved families and their children will be taken care at state expense for life, including education to university level, by the Federal Government, whether BN or PR; condemn the intrusion and invasion of the Sulu gunmen into Lahad Datu and Semporna causing the loss of Malaysian lives; demand the cessation of payment of the annual rental of RM5,300 to  descendants of Sulu Sultanate; and to call on the Philippines Government to demonstrate ASEAN community and spirit by officially dropping all claims to Sabah.

I want to urge in the strongest terms possible that Malaysian political leaders whether in government or opposition, should not debase and demean the sacrifice of the 10 fallen heroes, by reducing the RCI into a a witch-hunt or defamation campaign against PR leaders.

For this reason, DAP wishes to make the following proposals by the RCI into the Sulu invasion:

Consultation with PR leaders on formation of RCI

– The Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak should consult with Pakatan Rakyat leaders on the formation of the RCI into the Sulu invasion, especially with regard to the composition, terms of reference and the time-frame and mode of operation of the RCI.

Composition

Members of the RCI into Sulu intrusion should be Malaysians of impeccable character

commanding  undisputed respect and authority from all strata of society, including all political parties. There should be adequate Sabah representation on the RCI.

This is particularly relevant as the present Barisan Nasional Federal government is an “expired” government, having exceeded the five-year natural life of Parliament on March 8, 2008.

Terms of Reference

Widest and most comprehensive terms of reference, not only into the root causes if any of the invasion, but how there could be such a major security and intelligence lapse that a ragtag group of some 200 armed Suluks could intrude into Lahad Datuk on Feb. 9, and to entrench themselves at Kampong Tanduo for 23 days, before the stand-off deteriorated into shoot-outs; why the various agencies did not to stop the intrusion of the Suluk armed men on Feb. 9; whether the loss of lives of ten security personnel could be avoided; whether there had been political interferences preventing or deterring  the security chiefs from dealing with the Suluk intrusion in the most satisfactory  manner as not to cause any loss of lives or to land the country in a protracted national and international crisis inimical to Malaysia’s interntional image and reputation.

In the past weeks, there have been allegations implicating Malaysian personalities, both the Perime Minister Najib and the Parliamentary Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim in the Suluk invasion.

The RCI should investigate into all these and other allegations in the greatest depth, neutrality and impartiality.

Time-frame for RCI

Public hearing should only begin after 13GE so as to avoid accusation that it is set up as a political ploy to serve partisan interests of the ruling political parties to ensure their election in the 13GE – debasing and demeaning the loss of lives of the 10 security forces as well as the security concerns of all loyal and patriotic Malaysians.

From dissolution of Parliament to polling day normally takes about a month.  There can be no reason why the RCI into Sulu intrusion cannot be held after the 13GE if the purpose is to establish the truth and nothing but the truth about all aspects of the Sulu intrusion – taking into consideration that the RCI into illegal immigrants was only formed after more than three decades of public pressure and more than six months after a formal Cabinet decision had been taken.

(Media Conference Statement in Kota Kinbalu)

                This entry was posted on Sunday, 24 March 2013, 2:47 pm and is filed under
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Is your pocket 41 percent deeper?

Aidila Razak

Malaysiakini

Mar 23, 2013

COMMENT

Whether 41 percent or 49 percent, the numbers in the Economic Transformation Programme 2012 annual report is essentially trying to tell us this – Malaysia will reach high income status by 2020.

That gives the impression that the average Malaysian will be bringing home about RM48,000 (or US$15,000) a year by that time.

But will they? Does the average Malaysian feel 41 percent – or even the more modest 24 percent in ringgit terms – richer today compared to 2009? Are their pockets deeper?

The simple answer is no.

So is the government lying to us? Not exactly.

Let’s start with the incomes of our average households. As official data is collated and reported in ringgit terms by the Department of Statistics, the following arguments will use the ringgit.

The last survey on household income was conducted by the department in 2009. In 2009, it reported that average household income was RM4,025 per month or RM48,300 a year.

Taking into account a household size of 4.3 persons, each person in a household would bring home an average RM11,232 in 2009. Compare that to the gross national income (GNI) per capita for the same year – double the household income at RM24,879.

If Malaysians really did bring home the almost RM25,000 in income per capita, it works out to more than RM1,000 a month extra per person, enough to feed a small family. So where did that extra RM1,000 go?

Richer corporations, not richer workers

Why is GNI per capita not reflective of household income? The discrepancy can be explained in the way GNI and household income is measured.

GNI measures income from all recorded economic activity in a country plus whatever income that comes in from Malaysian entities operating abroad after subtracting income repatriated out by foreign companies operating here. Household income is measured through how much the household earns in wages, salaries, dividends, etc.

In other words, corporations and businesses may have done better and as a result the entire economy’s income is higher. But they may not necessarily be paying their workers any better, so workers may not be much richer.

Official data shows that nominal salaries grew at a slower rate compared to nominal GNI.

In the private sector, Bank Negara Malaysia observes, annual growth rate of nominal salaries in 2009 to 2012 was between 4 to 5 percent. In contrast, compounded annual growth rate for GNI over the same period, however, is 7.39 percent.

Wage data worldwide can be obtained on the International Labour Organisation’s website, but it only publishes data up to 2011.

According to the ILO, which gets its Malaysian data from the Department of Statistics, growth in nominal wages from 2009 to 2011 was 13.42 percent, lower than the 19 percent GNI per capita growth for the same period

And then there is inflation. For simplicity sake, let’s take on the ETP’s expectation that things will be about three percent more expensive every year from 2010 to 2020.

But inflation figures are measured by a selected number of goods, and is widely acknowledged to under-record the actual experience of consumers.

You may have to stretch your ringgit in other places, but if you can manage it, you’d much rather feed your baby better quality milk formula than a generic brand likely monitored for the consumer price index. Your household expenses may then grow higher than the inflation rate for the year.

Don’t forget income inequality

Taking all this into account, how much is left of your salary hike then?

You and I are not richer by either 41 percent or 49 percent. Our incomes didn’t even grow by 24 percent after the appreciation of the ringgit against the US dollar is taken out of the equation.

But it does not mean that the numbers are not kosher. What’s less than kosher, however, is using these numbers to make it seem like the household purse is getting fatter.

You and I don’t need numbers to realise that our pockets have not grown that much deeper in the last three years.

What we need, however, is a government which honestly spells out that reaching high income status would not automatically mean high income for the average Malaysian.

What we need is a government which does something to bring high income to you and me.

AIDILA RAZAK is a member of the Malaysiakini team.

                This entry was posted on Sunday, 24 March 2013, 6:15 am and is filed under
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