If security forces given free hand to deal with Sulu gunmen as militants instead of as “intruders, neither militants nor terrorists”, Sabah Sulu crisis would have ended faster and without loss of lives of eight police personnel

Thirty days after the invasion of the east coast of Sabah by a ragtag group of armed militants and terrorists, resulting in the death of eight police personnel in Lahad Datu and Semporna some three weeks later accompanied by the most gruesome, barbaric and savage mutilation of some of the police personnel who were still alive, including finger-chopping, eye-ripping and beheading, the Sabah Chief Minister Datuk Musa, who is also the chairman of the Sabah Security Committee, suddenly realized that the ragtag group of Sulu killers were not “intruders” but “terrorists”!

From yesterday, the media were directed by Musa to stop using the term  “intruder” and to use “terrorist” instead.

But what is  very strange is that it is not just the media who are guilty of the misnomer, all the top guns in government from political to security leadership, from the three Ministers who drop in and out of Sabah during the duration of the crisis, namely Home Minister Hishammuddin Hussein, Defence Minister Zahid Hamidi and Foreign Minister Anifah Aman, to the security chiefs including the Inspector-General of Police Ismail Omar and the Armed Forces Chief Gen Zulkifeli Mohd Zin were all  guilty for more than four weeks in using the misnomer.

Even the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak when he finally visited Lahad Datuk on March 7, some 26 days after the first landing of Sulu terrorists on Feb. 9, also continued to talk about “intruders” instead of “terrorists” – betraying a serious problem of mindset of those responsible for managing the Sabah Sulu crisis.

There will be many unforgettable photographs preserving for posterity some the bloody and  gruesome vignettes from the hitherto 30-day Sabah Sulu crisis. Among these unforgettable pics will be one showing the Home Minister in his first visit to Lahad Datuk on Feb. 18, peering at Kampong Tanduo through his powerful binoculars to survey the armed Sulu group and declaring that although the group was armed, they were “neither militants nor terrorists”.

A most shocking misjudgment costing human lives and colouring the mindset of the top political and security leadership when even at that time, it was already known that the Sulu armed group was dangerous as they were wielding M16, M14 and Baby Armalite assault weapons and M203 grenade launchers.

I have no doubt if the top security forces had been allowed a free hand to deal with the Sulu armed invasion, recognizing them from the start as “militants” instead of having to put up with the political leadership’s categorization branding them as “intruders – neither militants nor terrorists”, the eight police national heroes who were killed in Lahad Datu and Semporna would still be alive today and the Sabah Sulu crisis would have ended swiftly, surgically and even peacefully, instead of being dragged out for a month , involving protracted negotiations, stand-offs and shoot-outs,  with no end yet  in sight, and with such a heavy cost in human lives among the security forces.

Can Malaysians and the government learn from the expensive lessons in the failures in leadership and crisis management resulting in grave  costs to   human lives and people’s sufferings in the Sabah Sulu crisis?

Quite unlikely, when we remember another famous saying of another member of Najib’s Cabinet, this time Datuk Seri Ng Yen Yen, the Tourism Minister – who said that Sabah is still safe for tourists when the Sabah tourism industry is suffering badly from the Sabah Sulu crisis!

                This entry was posted on Tuesday, 12 March 2013, 4:13 pm and is filed under
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30-Day Countdown to 13GE – Open Letter to Najib proposing  Cabinet decision tomorrow to convene special Parliamentary session within a week on Sabah Sulu crisis

I am today issuing this Open Letter to the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak:

“YAB Datuk Seri Najib Razak,

Prime Minister,

Malaysia.

YAB Datuk Seri,

Cabinet decision tomorrow to convene special Parliamentary session within a week on Sabah Sulu crisis to condemn cruel, inhuman and barbaric killing of Malaysian policemen by Sulu terrorists and call to Philippines Government to officially drop all claims to Sabah

———————————————————————————————————

I am still reeling from shock, horror and revulsion from the Chinese media reports yesterday about the cruel, inhuman and barbaric killings of Malaysian policemen by Sulu terrorists in the water village, Kampung Simunul in Semporna on March 2 as revealed by the Defence Minister Datuk Seri Dr. Ahmad Zahid Hamidi in Ipoh on Sunday – sadistic and savage atrocities like cutting off of fingers, ripping of eyes and beheading when our fallen heroes in Semporna were still alive.

To my knowledge, this is  the first time there is official confirmation of such unspeakable atrocities committed by the Sulu terrorists against members of our security forces  in Semporna although there had been rumours and later confirmation of uncivilized mutilation and beheading of corpses .

I am addressing this Open Letter to you to urge the Cabinet tomorrow to take an decision of great national importance  – to convene a special session of Parliament as the eight fallen national heroes from the police forces in Lahad Datu and Semporna, as well as all the security forces personnel who had suffered injury in the Sabah Sulu crisis,  deserve no less than a fulsome tribute and recognition from all Ministers and Parliamentarians, regardless of political party, race, religion or region, in a special Parliamentary session.

On 12th January last year, a special Parliamentary session was convened where all MPs condemned in unison the Israeli atrocities on Palestinians in the Gaza.

YAB Prime Minister’s Cabinet  and the 12th Parliament will be seriously remiss in their duties if they are not equally prepared to convene a special Parliamentary session to condemn the atrocities on the Malaysian security forces by Sulu terrorists in Lahad Datu and Semporna.

Last Monday, Pakatan Rakyat leaders, namely Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, Datuk Seri Hadi Awang and myself in a joint statement on behalf of PKR, PAS and DAP had called for an emergency meeting of Parliament over the Sabah Sulu crisis.

Although later the day, I had asked the Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department, Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz, when we appeared at the same panel at an international conference, to advise the Prime Minister on the issue as he is also Minister in charge of parliamentary affairs, it is most regrettable that not a single Minister thought the subject important enough to be raised in the Cabinet last Wednesday.

I hope the Ministers will not be equally remiss at the Cabinet tomorrow tomorrow in refusing  to discuss and decide on a special Parliamentary session on the Sabah Sulu crisis, or they should explain to the people, especially Sabahans and the security forces who have to bear the brunt of the dastardly and barbaric acts of the Sulu terrorists, why the Cabinet does not think the issue important enough to deserve the convening of a special meeting of Parliament.

The special Parliamentary session should be convened within a week, unless YAB proposes to dissolve Parliament for the holding of the 13th General Elections before 19th March 2013.

The special Parliamentary meeting should adopt an unanimous resolution on the Sabah Sulu crisis on at least six points, viz:

•	Give full support to the security forces to take all necessary measures to protect the national sovereignty and the security of the people of Sabah and security personnel ;

•	Pay tribute to the eight fallen heroes from the police forces in the shoot-outs with Sulu terrorists in Lahad Datu and Semporna;

•	Set up a special foundation to look after the welfare of their surviving family and children, including life-long education to university level for the children of the fallen heroes;

•	Condemn in the strongest possible terms the atrocities and the cruel, inhuman, uncivilized and barbaric killing of the fallen heroes in Semporna by Sulu terrorists and to invoke national and international censure of such bestial conduct to bring to justice the inhuman killers;

•	Resolve an  immediate halt of the annual “cession payment” of RM5,300 to the self-proclaimed heir of the Sulu Sultanate; and

•	Call on Philippines Government to demonstrate ASEAN spirit and solidarity by  officially dropping all claims to Sabah.

Thank you.

                                                                         Yours truly,

                                                                         Lim Kit Siang

                                                           (DAP Parliamentary Leader/MP Ipoh Timor)”

                This entry was posted on Tuesday, 12 March 2013, 1:11 pm and is filed under
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M’sian caped crusader?

by Mariam Mokhtar

Malaysiakini

Mar 11, 2013

Malays could be the masters of their own destiny, but decades of spoon-feeding, reinforced by an unhealthy belief that they are morally and spiritually superior, has robbed many Malays of the power of critical thought and analysis. It is as if the strain of thinking for oneself, is too great a challenge.

When a Malay criticises the ruling party, he is seen as ‘ungrateful’. He is told that he should be appreciative for all that Umno has done for him – all the opportunities for education and work. It is conveniently forgotten that not all Malays benefit from the New Economic Policy (NEP).

Many middle-class Malay families complain that scholarships or study loans go to the children of well-connected parents. In businesses, and especially in government tenders, the same applies – connections count more than skills or expertise. Many senior politicians and their wives are more commonly known as Mr or Mrs “Ten percent”.

Conversely, Malays have not realised that receiving an education or business opportunity via the affirmative action policies, should not deprive them of a voice. Malays must learn that keeping the government on its toes does not mean that they are unappreciative or disloyal.

Some Malays have a child-like version of the world. In a discussion with a non-Malay, the Malay who cannot present his facts in a logical manner may invariably blurt out, “Go back to where you came from”. It is like the frustrated child who does not get his way and threatens his sibling with, “I’ll tell father what you did”. He does not care about the consequences. He just wants to hurt and get retribution.

When our leaders act in the same manner, this presents a very poor example for the Malays. As an example, former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad had encouraged the stripping of Ambiga Sreenevasan’s  citizenship because she wanted true democracy.

When all else fails, some Malays bring Allah into the argument. Malays are adept at emotional blackmail, especially when the threat of eternal damnation is involved.

Malays fiercely defend their religious rights and condemn non-Muslims for entering the discussion. Some claim that as they do not interfere with other religions, then non-Muslims should not interfere in theirs. Could this be an explanation for the muted Muslim voices when a band of renegade Malays dragged a cow’s head through the streets of Shah Alam?

Why have Malays not acknowledged that for centuries, the word ‘Allah’ was used with no problems until Umno Malays decided it was wrong?

Suffering trial by ordeal

Malays swearing on the Quran in a mosque debases the religion. Compare this with trial by ordeal in medieval England. If someone was accused of a crime against the monarch, he might suffer trial by ordeal. If he did not sustain injuries when his arm was placed in a vat of boiling oil, then he is found innocent.

Saiful Bukhari’s father, Azlan Mohd Lazim, has claimed that the sodomy charges against opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim had been politically motivated. Umno leaders treat Malays as simpletons. Will Malays ask Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak to respond to Azlan’s latest revelation and also address the accusations made by carpet dealer Deepak Jaikishan and former inspector-general of police (IGP) Musa Hassan?

Why don’t Malays consider a range of other views, to help shape theirs? Sadly, some non-Malays also fall into the trap of not entering into a discussion because they are told that “it does not concern them”. Islam is the official religion of Malaysia, so all Malaysians are free to express the opinion on any aspect of Islam.

Malays dislike being told that they are in the wrong. Instead of having a rational discussion, some prefer to bottle their emotions, than risk running amok. Decades of ‘Ketuanan Melayu’ have reinforced this flaw in their character.

Mahathir said that the opposition would destroy the Malays and bumiputeras in Selangor. Mahathir’s ‘Project M’ allowed illegal immigrants into Sabah. Najib and the Election Commission (EC) permit illegal immigrants into Malaysia. Malays are being betrayed by Umno Malay leaders. These policies of offering citizenship to illegal immigrants have contributed to the loss of lives in Lahad Datu.

Whilst Najib fell under Psy’s charms in Penang, and Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin had reportedly been in Indonesia for Chinese New Year, armed Sulu invaders had slipped into Sabah where they were allegedly plied with food and drink by the Umno government during negotiations.

A news blackout did nothing to quell criticisms of the handling of the crisis, it merely festered the spread of rumours. Najib has only himself to blame for this debacle.

The country is being crippled by abuses of power, corruption, police brutality and high levels of crime, and the man in the street knows the perpetrators. Both Mahathir and Najib have portrayed Anwar as an agent of various foreign governments, a stud (from the various sex videos produced by Umno), and the one who will bring the Malays down.

Anwar may be portrayed by Umno as a supervillain, but he is not responsible for these crimes. Contrariwise, he is the superhero who would like to avenge them.

People may have read on the Internet about the portly delivery van driver who dressed as Batman and marched a suspected criminal into a police station in Bradford, England. If only Najib could have exercised his full powers when he was prime minister and put a stop to all the evil in Malaysia. Perhaps, he could have been the Malaysian Batman – The Caped Crusader.

Their similarities and differences

The original Batman was the son of millionaire philanthropists; Najib and his wife have become multi-millionaires from being in politics, but they are no philanthropists. Any largesse they exhibit is paid for by the taxpayer.

There are some significant similarities and differences between Batman and Najib. Batman lives in a gothic mansion, whereas Najib has a Louis-Farouk monstrosity. Batman has a Batmobile, but Najib has access to a variety of vehicles, including two submarines with slight technical glitches.

Batman has a ‘six-pack’, whereas Najib is blessed with a ‘12-pack’ figure. In the Umno world, quantity matters.

Batman has his sidekick, Robin “The Boy Wonder”. Najib has three sidekicks – Hishammuddin Hussein the “Action Boy”, Zahid Hamidi “GI Joe” and Rais Yatim “The Disinformer”. Batman has eyes only for the femme fatale “Catwoman”, whereas Najib has Rosmah Mansor “The Bag Lady” and Ummi Hafilda Ali “The Wazz”.

The Malays must understand that if Najib cannot defend Lahad Datu from a gang of invaders, he has little chance of defending the name ‘Allah’, nor protecting Malaysians from a band of internal crooks.

——————————————————————————–

MARIAM MOKHTAR is a non-conformist traditionalist from Perak, a bucket chemist and an armchair eco-warrior. In ‘real-speak’, this translates into that she comes from Ipoh, values change but respects culture, is a petroleum chemist and also an environmental pollution-control scientist.

                This entry was posted on Tuesday, 12 March 2013, 5:00 am and is filed under
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PR leaders are second to none in being patriotic and loyal to Malaysia

– Dr. Chen Man Hin

Life advisor DAP

11th March 2013

The Sulu loyalists to the self appointed Sultan of Sulu,  Jamala Kirim III invaded Sabah on the 12th February 2013, the second day of the Lunar New Year.

Soon after Lim Kit Siang MP visited Sabah and travelled to Tawau, Lahad Datu and Felda Sahabat. Despite the hue and cry and the dangers of an invading force,  Lim Kit Siang was in Lahad Datu and Felda Sahabat to assess the situation.  Incidentally, Kit Siang was in Sabah from the 20th February, while  PM Najib went to Sabah on the 2nd of March.

I too was in Sabah for three days last week, against the advice of well meaning supporters.

We went to Lahad Datu out of a sense of duty and loyalty to our country.  Armed foreign invaders have landed on the coasts of Sabah. Our country was in danger.  Every loyal citizen must help,  especially political leaders.

JAMALA KIRIM the self-proclaimed leader of the Invaders is a fake sultan.

He claimed to be the Sultan of Sulu but his claim has been demolished by the present descendants of the Sulu Sulanate, who insisted that  Jamala was unknown to them, and is definitely not an heir to the Sulu Sultanate.

Now that Kirim is a fake,  the rationale for the invasion is gone.  The purpose and objective are no more. The two to three hundred invaders should therefore disarm themselves and surrender and go back to their homeland.

It is likely that the armed invaders are lost, aimless and frightened.  They are alone.  There is little or no support from local citizens of Sulu origin. They are at a loss.

Other than using military force to compel them to surrender, it might be more productive to use PROPAGANDA to INDUCE them   to surrender.

PROPAGANDA MESSAGE

1. YOUR MISSION IS ABOLISHED,  AS JAMALA KIRIM IS NOT YOUR SULTAN OF SULU. HE IS A FAKE ACCORDING TO THE  PRESENT  LIVING DESCENDANTS OF THE SULTANATE.

2.THE PEOPLE OF SABAH INCLUDING THOSE OF SULU ORIGIN  DO NOT SUPPORT ARMED VIOLENCE.  THEY ARE HAPPY IN SABAH, HAVE JOBS AND ENJOY A GOOD LIFE.

3. PRESIDENT AQUINO OF PHILLIPINES TOO ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF YOUR ARMED STRUGGLE.

4. THE FORMER PRESIDENT OF MNLF ALSO SAID THAT THE MNLF WILL NOT INTERFERE OR SUPPORT YOUR ARMED STRUGGLE.

5. YOUR ONLY SOLUTION IS TO SURRENDER AND ASK FOR FAIR TREATMENT.

                This entry was posted on Tuesday, 12 March 2013, 4:02 am and is filed under
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Probe Umno links to Sulus

Mohd Ariff Sabri Aziz | March 12, 2013

Free Malaysia Today

The bigger fear among Umno leaders is that any drastic military action would have destroyed the reservoir of potential voters among the Filipinos with Malaysian Identity Cards.

COMMENT

Umno Baru godfather Dr Mahathir Mohamad said the government misread the situation in Lahad Datu.

He said: “At first we did not think the intrusion was as an external threat for they [Sulu gunmen] were on our shore. But now that it is clear that the invasion is an attack from outside, the military was ordered to move in.”

Since this was an invasion by a group of foreign nationals threatening the safety of our country and citizens, the army should have stepped in from the very begining.

Why was the Malaysian government dilatory in dealing with the Sulu invaders?

Mahathir claims the government “acted cautiously” because the intruders were Muslims.

But the likelihood is greater that the bigger fear among Umno leaders was that drastic military action would have destroyed the reservoir of potential voters among the Filipinos with Malaysian Identity Cards, beneficiaries of Mahathir’s “Project IC” in Sabah.

To unleash our military might would be to destroy a fixed deposit that has kept Umno-Barisan Nasional in power here for decades.

What perhaps is needed now is an investigation into the links between the Sulu intruders and Umno.

Investigate the story that the invaders were invited to Lahad Datu by Umno members.

Investigate the tale that one Umno local leader is related to the Sultan of Sulu and that he had lost a court battle with Felda and was miffed enough to ask the Sultan of Sulu to come to Lahad Datu to reclaim land taken by Felda.

Some local quarters have claimed that the Umno leader was given 15 acres of land and a contract to cut and collect palm oil fruits from the entire Felda schemes in Lahad Datu.

Investigate, too, claims by some parties that it was Umno president and Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak who had invited these Sulu men to Lahad Datu.

Najib was quick to say that investigations will be made to ascertain whether there were links between the Sulu invaders and opposition leaders, especially Anwar Ibrahim.

This same quickness and fairness must be extended to probing Umno’s links with the Sulu intruders.

The writer is a former Umno state assemblyman but has now joined DAP. He is a FMT columnist.

                This entry was posted on Tuesday, 12 March 2013, 7:56 pm and is filed under
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Should Malaysia be saved from Dr Mahathir?

— Bangsa Malaysia

The Malaysian Insider

Mar 11, 2013

MARCH 11 — Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad may not be standing for elections anymore but ultimately he is just like any politician who will do or say anything to stay in power.

As evidence just take a look at his latest remarks about saving the Malays from the opposition.

As reported in The Malaysian Insider yesterday he has dropped all pretense for a Bangsa Malaysia and has gone for the Malay vote and slammed the Opposition for listening and accommodating the views and needs of the non-Malays.

State news agency Bernama quoted the country’s longest-serving prime minister as saying that Selangor must be saved from the opposition to ensure the rights and position of the Malays and Bumiputeras are maintained in the state.

Really? The Malays and Bumiputeras need saving?

Dr Mahathir often talks about the Malays having short memories but he seems to have forgotten that in 1999, he would have lost the elections if it was not for the support from the non-Malays.

He had lost huge chunks of support from Malay voters in the fallout from Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s sacking and prosecution for sodomy, and had to depend on the overwhelming support of non-Malay voters to ensure BN remained in power.

But he seems to be contradicting himself now and is only gunning for the Malay vote for BN.

Yesterday Dr Mahathir said the weakness of two Malay parties in the opposition, resulted in disrespect for the race and risked the special privileges of the Malays and Bumputera being done away with.

Funny how he did not admit that in 1999 it was his weakness and that of Umno under him that forced him to campaign hard for the non-Malay vote.

One wonders what he would have said in 1999 if the opposition parties had suggested that his weakness as the leader of Umno would risk the special privileges of the Malays.

But that would mean applying the warped logic of this man.

As a result of Dr Mahathir’s logic it is perhaps a waste of time to remind him that the special privileges of the Malays and Bumiputera communities are a result of constitutional provisions.

Regardless of who is in power in Putrajaya the special privileges remain in place in the Constitution.

What Dr Mahathir is now doing on behalf of BN and Umno is playing the race card to appeal to the insecurities of what he hopes are significant numbers of Malay and Bumiputera voters.

Just look at what he said yesterday when he talked about an alleged disrespect for the Malay race and how a vote for Pakatan Rakyat (PR) would risk the special privileges of the Malays and Bumputera being done away with.

In his words: “We also want to stress that Bahasa Melayu and Islam are the official language and religion of our nation. So they must respect our rights as how we respect their rights.

“But, because the leadership of the Malays in the opposition pact is very weak, they often just follow their colleagues including when pressed for the word Allah to be used (in the Bible).

“When they proposed to strip the special privileges of the Malays, the opposition, which purportedly had two parties with Malay leadership, willingly complied. If we are not careful, we will lose altogether our rights on our own soil and they (opposition) will get rid of all efforts to develop the Malays and Bumiputeras.”

Who are “they”? Dr Mahathir does not say but one will have to guess that “they” means the non-Malays.

Also who exactly is proposing to strip Malays and Bumiputeras of their rights?

Or is the name of the game to make things up?

Surely Malaysia’s greatest statesman, the architect of Bangsa Malaysia and a modern progressive country does not make things up.

If so Malaysia and Malaysians would surely need to be saved from this man.

                This entry was posted on Tuesday, 12 March 2013, 7:23 pm and is filed under
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Speaking up on Lahad Datu is patriotism

Stan CH Lee

Malaysiakini

Mar 9, 2013

First off, I wish to put on record my heartfelt sympathies and condolences to the families of the soldiers who laid down their lives for the country. I do not for one moment doubt your courage and commitment to the defence of our country. Malaysians of all backgrounds owe you a debt that can never be repaid.

Defence of the country’s sovereignty is the duty of all Malaysians who love the country. National defence is not something that most people wear on their sleeves. However, this duty extends beyond the physical defence of the country, which is the job of the armed forces.

It should and must include speaking up when things are not right. This is something that we as a people have not done for so many years, having left that to our elected representatives in parliament.

However, the Lahad Datu Invasion weighs heavy on my mind, as it does that of many, many concerned Malaysians. This is not to denigrate nor trivialise the sacrifices made by our armed forces. The dangers are real. Bombs and bullets do fly.

Unfortunately, people do get killed. As a country, it is only right that we close ranks to face the enemy. But, the big question is, “Who is the enemy?”

Is it the ragtag group of armed insurgents? Or is there a hidden hand here? Have you ever thought of the ridiculousness and implausibility of the situation? A group of 200 odd foreign armed men, landed on Malaysian soil with women and children in tow.

Their announced purpose is to speak and negotiate with an important Malaysian on claiming back land that they say belongs to them. In history, how many wars have been declared by an impoverished “sultanate” that can hardly make ends meet on a bigger, much better equipped neighbour?

And they have to cross the Sulu sea in small boats to do it. The last time an armada crossed the sea to attack another country was when Britain sent a naval task force to the Falklands. Notice it was not Argentina sending their people on small boats to Great Britain?

Who in their right mind would go for a negotiation armed to the teeth with guns especially when the enemy is bigger, stronger, better armed and have the home ground advantage?

——————————————————————————–

STAN CH LEE is a Malaysian at heart in Toronto. He used to express himself mainly through drawings and pictures, but discovered that some things are better said in words.

                This entry was posted on Tuesday, 12 March 2013, 11:48 pm and is filed under
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Who will win the 13th general election?

 — Lee Hwa Beng

The Malaysian Insider

Mar 11, 2013

MARCH 11 — The coming 13th general election will be interesting as nobody can say for sure which coalition will win Putrajaya. However, one thing that we can all agree on is that Barisan Nasional (BN) can no longer win a two-thirds majority and whoever wins, the margin of victory will be narrow.

Many analysts have been making forecasts recently but (in my humble opinion), most of these articles are political spin to make their paymasters look good.

As a disclaimer, I have no agenda in providing the below. I have drafted a list of what I think are thought-provoking questions for the astute reader to use in order to come to an informed conclusion on whether Pakatan Rakyat (PR) can improve their GE12 performance.

In my analysis, I have relied on the results of the last elections and sparingly highlighted the results of the by-elections, crossovers and those MPs who have become independents since GE12.

In the last elections, BN won 140 seats and Pakatan 82 seats in Parliament. In Peninsular Malaysia, BN won narrowly with 85 seats to Pakatan’s 80 seats. However, in east Malaysia, Pakatan won only two seats, one each in Sabah and Sarawak, while the rest of the parliamentary seats were won by BN.

Since then, PAS wrested the Kuala Terengganu seat from Umno in a by-election; MIC wrested the Hulu Selangor seat from PKR; six MPs from PKR and one MP from PAS have resigned; one joined KITA and six became BN-friendly independents.

The DAP has wrested an additional seat from SUPP in the Sibu by-election; two SAPP MPs have left BN to become independents; one MP from Umno and one from UPKO in Sabah have resigned and become Pakatan-friendly independents.

Before you attempt to predict which coalition will win GE13, you should answer the following questions:

1) Peninsular Malaysia (BN 85: PR 80)

Is the overall anti-BN sentiment expressed in 2008 stronger or weaker in 2013? If the anti-BN sentiment is worse now among the Chinese, will the MCA and Gerakan be able to retain their existing 17 seats (MCA 15, Gerakan 2)? Will the Indian voters return to BN when most people agreed in the last election 60 per cent of them voted for Pakatan?

Will PAS be able to wrench away some of the 65 Umno seats in Peninsular Malaysia and improve on the 23 seats that it won in GE12? Quite a number of these seats were won marginally by either Umno or PAS.

Will Pakatan be able to retain the seats of their seven MPs (Gobalakrishnan-Padang Serai/Kedah; Zulkilfi Noordin-Kulim/Kedah; Tan Tee Beng-Nibong Tebal/Penang; Zahrain Hashim-Bayan Baru/Penang; Mohd Fadzil-BaganSerai/Perak; Wee Choo Keong-Wangsa Maju/KL and Ibrahim Ali-Pasir Mas/Kelantan) who have resigned from Pakatan and become BN friendly?

2) Sarawak (BN 30: PR/DAP 1)

During the 2011 state elections (where there were no parliamentary elections), many were surprised when the DAP won 12 state seats and PKR three state seats. If we use the results of the state elections to extrapolate on the potential result of parliamentary elections, the DAP would win six Parliament seats.

It is noteworthy that the DAP was able to win the Sibu by-election in addition to the Kuching seat it won in 2008. In a nutshell, the Chinese voted overwhelmingly for the DAP during the 2011 state elections.

Will the DAP be able to hold on to its Chinese support and increase its indigenous support to add more seats?

Will PKR and the DAP be able to win a couple of seats in the parliamentary constituencies that are composed of “mixed” seats with Chinese and native support especially the 15 seats now held by SUPP (5), SPDP (4) and PRS (6). Whatever the case, most pundits predict a range of 6-10 seats for Pakatan Rakyat in Sarawak.

3) Sabah (BN 25: PR/DAP 1) (Labuan as part of Sabah)

Since the last election in 2008 (GE12), the SAPP with two MPs has left BN and become independent. An Umno MP and an UPKO MP have also resigned from their parties and have aligned themselves to Pakatan.

Will Pakatan be able to negotiate and ultimately, co-operate with Jeffrey Kittingan’s STAR and Yong Teck Lee’s SAPP in order to ensure a direct, one-to-one fight in all the state and parliamentary seats?

Will the on-going Lahad Datu conflict have any effect on the Muslim voters in Sabah, especially among the Suluk voters?

If you are able to answer the questions above, there you have it, you have just come to your own conclusion of who will win the next GE13.

Remember a coalition needs a minimum of 112 seats to form the government out of the total of 222 seats. The current standing is BN with 142 MPs (135 plus seven BN-friendly independents), Pakatan with 77 MPs (75 plus two Pakatan-friendly Independents), SAPP two MPs and one vacancy due to the death of the PAS MP in Titiwangsa where no by-election has been held.

* Datuk Lee Hwa Beng is the former MCA state assemblyman for Subang Jaya (three terms from 1995-2008). Stood as the BN candidate for the Kelana Jaya parliamentary seat in 2008 and lost. Appointed Port Klang Authority chairman to investigate the PKFZ scandal from 2008 to 2011 and the author of “PKFZ: A Nation’s Trust Betrayed.”

                This entry was posted on Tuesday, 12 March 2013, 4:37 am and is filed under
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29-Day Countdown to 13GE – Najib doth claim too much, that Malaysia is world’s fastest country in GNI per capita growth which is as believable as his boast to make Malaysia “world’s best democracy”

I do not envy in Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s shoes at present as he must continue to put up an external front of supreme confidence that he will not be the last Umno/Barisan Nasional Prime Minister and would even survive a coup d’etat in Umno ala-Abdullah Badawi after the 13GE  while internally he must be quaking with gnawing doubts whether he could survive the final countdown for the “life-and-death” test for his political life.

As a result, he doth protest and claim too much.

Yesterday, the TV3 programme “Conversation with the PM” provided another example that the sixth Prime Minister of Malaysia “doth claim too much” when he said:

“And when you talk in terms of benefit for the people, within three years, from 2009 to the end of 2011, our GNI (gross national income) per capita, it grew from US$6,670 to US$9,970. That’s roughly a 49 per cent (increase). There is no country in the world that has achieved that kind of result”.

Najib’s claim to be the fastest country in the world for GNI per capita growth in the three years from 2009 to 2011 is as believable as his other claim to transform Malaysia to be the world’s best democracy, when he could not even stand up to national and international scrutiny for the conduct of a free, fair and clean general elections despite his recent signature of the Transparency International-Malaysia’s Election Integrity Pledge. Instead, Najib is branded internationally as a “false democrat”.

Najib made two false claims in one short assertion last night – for Malaysia’s per capita GNI did not increase by 49 per cent in the three years from 2009 to 2011, and Malaysia is definitely not the world’s fastest country in per capita GNI growth in those three years.

The World Bank website shows the true numbers for Malaysia’s GNI per capita for the relevant period, viz:

2009—– US$7,550

2010—– US$8,090

2011——US$8,770

The link to the World Bank data  is at :
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD/countries/MY-4E-XT?display=default

The numbers for per capita GNI cited by Najib are wholly inconsistent with the growth in GDP published and cited by the Government. The growth rates of the two (GNI and GDP) track each other closely. Thus the growth rate of 49% he cites is an impossibility and is not reflected in GDP growth.

From the World Bank data, per capita GNI from 2009 to 2011 increased by 16.15% and not 49% increase claimed by Najib with the empty boast of “No country in the world had achieved that kind of result”.

In fact, from quick look at  the World Bank data, there are several countries, including at least three from ASEAN, which had chalked up a faster growth of their per capita GNI from 2009 to 2011, including:

Nation

per capita GNI(US$)

% of Increase

2009

2011

China

3,620

4,940

36.46%

Indonesia

2,160

2,940

36.1%

Singapore

36,030

42,930

19.15%

Botswana

6,270

7,470

19.14%

Thailand

3,730

4,440

19%

Philippines

1,870

2,210

18.18%

When Malaysia even lose out to Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia in terms of GNI per capita growth in the three years from 2009 to 2011, how can Najib go before a national television audience to thump his chest to claim to be the world’s fastest country in GNI per capita growth from 2009 to 2011?

As Finance Minister apart as Prime Minister (not to mention that he is also Woman Minister) and an economist by training, Najib should know better unless of course he is totally ignorant. Or perhaps he thinks the people can be fooled into believing the made up numbers.

Can Najib name countries which had achieved a phenomenal 49% increase over a two period in per capita GNI, which would indeed be a real world record.

Ironically, the only part of Najib’s statement that is true, is the last sentence!!

Najib said on television last night that before calling for the 13GE, he wants first to show to the people what had actually been achieved through various initiatives in his national transformation agenda.

How long more does Najib need to show to Malaysians that his plethora of antonyms and alphabet soup are not just empty soundbites but concrete policy transformations meaningful to the people?

If Najib cannot convince Malaysians after four years of premiership (he is three weeks short of four years as Malaysia’s longest unelected Prime Minister), what can the a few more weeks (45 days before automatic dissolution of Parliament on April 27) achieve to endear him to the Malaysian voters?

May be one single act which can do more than anything else to convince Malaysians about his political will and seriousness to effect major transformations in Malaysia is to ask the former Prime Minister, Tun Dr. Mahathir, not to spearhead the return of Mahathirism and to stop his doomsday scenarios but this is clearly asking for the impossible.

Najib has no confidence that his various transformation programmes will be his strongest selling point in the 13GE, which is why he is relying more and more on negative and divisive campaigning completely inimical to national interests including his own signature 1Malaysia Policy.

The next immediate test for Najib is whether he would dissolve Parliament before March 16, the date the Negri Sembilan State Assembly would stand automatically dissolved.

Will Najib rise up to the occasion or would he again flutter and fail?

                This entry was posted on Wednesday, 13 March 2013, 9:32 am and is filed under
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Call on all parties and persons  involved to unite as patriotic Malaysians to face the Sabah Sulu crisis as one united people to fully restore national sovereignty and security and welfare of Sabahans

I regret that the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak, in his hour-long programme of
“Conversation with the PM”
 televised on TV3, Bernama TV, RTM and Astro Awani last night failed to address adequately and  fully the Sabah Sulu crisis which has entered into its fifth week, causing the death of eight policemen and one soldier and 56 Sulu terrorists.

I want firstly to convey my deepest condolences to Private Mohd Hurairah Ismail from Pasir Mas, Kelantan , the first soldier to be killed by Sulu terrorists in an exchange of fire in Sungai Nyamuk in Lahad Datu yesterday.

Mohd Hurairah, like the eight police commandoes who were killed by Sulu terrorists in Kampung Tanduo in Lahad Datu and Semporna, died as a national hero in the defence of national sovereignty and the security of the people of Sabah and the nation owes them an eternal gratitude.

This is why I feel very strongly that there should be a special session of Parliament not only for MPs from both sides of the political divide to express full support and solidarity for all necessary measures by the security forces to deal with the Sabah Sulu crisis but also to pay tribute and honour the nine  brave fallen heroes from the security forces and to assure  the nation that the government, from whichever political coalition, Barisan Nasional or Pakatan Rakyat,  will look after the welfare,  as well the life-long education needs  of the children,  of the bereaved families as an token of national appreciation of their sacrifices.

This is one reason why I am very disappointed about the Prime Minister’s hour-long television interview last night, especially as I had sent an Open Letter to him yesterday urging the Cabinet today to convene a  special Parliamentary session within the week, to  adopt an unanimous resolution on the Sabah Sulu crisis on at least six points, viz:

• Give full support to the security forces to take all necessary measures to protect the national sovereignty and the security of the people of Sabah and security personnel ;

• Pay tribute to the nine  fallen heroes from the police and armed  forces in the shoot-outs with Sulu terrorists in Lahad Datu and Semporna;

• Set up a special foundation to look after the welfare of their surviving family and children, including life-long education to university level for the children of the fallen heroes;

• Condemn in the strongest possible terms the atrocities and the cruel, inhuman, uncivilized and barbaric killing of the fallen heroes in Semporna by Sulu terrorists and to invoke national and international censure of such bestial conduct to bring to justice the inhuman killers;

• Resolve an immediate halt of the annual “cession payment” of RM5,300 to the self-proclaimed heir of the Sulu Sultanate; and

• Call on Philippines Government to demonstrate ASEAN spirit and solidarity by officially dropping all claims to Sabah.

If the Cabinet this morning did not decide on the convening of  a special Parliamentary session on the Sabah Sulu crisis, it would mean that for two consecutive weeks, the Cabinet had ignored and deprived the fallen heroes from the police and armed forces the honour and tribute they deserve from Parliament.

I will call on Najib as Prime Minister to invoke his powers to convene a special Parliamentary meeting within a week  as this is a matter which must rise above partisan differences.

In fact, Members of Parliament from Pakatan Rakyat, i.e. DAP, PKR and PAS are prepared to put aside all pending matters to attend such a special Parliamentary meeting even with 24 hours’ notice.  Are Barisan Nasional MPs prepared to do the same?

In his “Conversation with the Prime Minister” yesterday, Najib touched on several issues about the Sabah Sulu crisis but I must say I do not agree with many of the things he had said.

However, I do not propose to go into these differences with what the Prime Minister had said  on the Sabah Sulu crisis, as the topmost priority today is “unity” for all Malaysians to unite as one people on the Sabah Sulu crisis and not “disunity”.

I therefore call  on all parties and persons  to stop playing politics and  to unite as one patriotic Malaysian people to face the Sabah Sulu crisis as  a solid force  to fully restore national sovereignty and to protect the  security and welfare of Sabahans – to end all finger-pointing on who should be blamed, and in particular the dissemination of baseless allegations against political leaders, whether BN or PR.

(Media Conference Statement in Kota Kinabalu on Wednesday 13th February 2013 at 3.30 pm)

                This entry was posted on Wednesday, 13 March 2013, 4:53 pm and is filed under
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Don’t fear the consequences of change

Anwar Ibrahim

Malaysiakini

Mar 12, 2013

COMMENT

The present Umno-BN government of Najib Abdul Razak is living on borrowed time. It doesn’t want to admit it but its legitimacy is now totally in question because constitutionally, its full term has expired.

The people’s patience is tested to the limit here by the audacity of a government that goes on ruling without a mandate.

A number of bogus analysts and self-appointed doomsday prophets, especially those driven by very personal agendas, have warned that Malaysia will descend into political and economic chaos in the event of a Pakatan Rakyat victory.

On the other hand, the more genuine and independent observers have expressed greater optimism. For instance, the original ‘Dr Doom’, Prof Roubini, says that our economy will stay robust even with a change in government.

We know that a mandate for change is not limited to the political sphere though it is true that without that mandate, economic management itself will be off to a false start.

When Indonesia made that break from military autocracy to constitutional democracy, much of the focus of the free world was on how its economy would weather the transition.

And in their case, transition would stretch for years and indeed the fruits of that initial process of political upheaval are for all to see.

In the case of the Arab Spring, the major worry remains the lack of clearly defined policies that would set the road map to economic recovery and growth.

They are still finding their way and it won’t be an easy way but that is no excuse for rejecting freedom and democracy.

Certainly, political stability is a key factor, and I might just emphasise the most crucial factor in setting the direction and objectives of economic management.

False logic

But let me stress that this is not to be confused with the argument that, because political stability is so crucial, therefore there should be no change in government.

This is false logic because the test of political stability is in fact the ability of a nation to experience a change of government peacefully through the ballot box.

In this regard, no matter what the Umno-BN propaganda says, we, the Pakatan Rakyat, believe in this peaceful process and we are confident that the people are matured and ready for this change.

Now, the question that needs to be answered first is what are the likely economic consequences of a peaceful political transition?

I think the obvious response is that number one, the status quo may be maintained i.e. nothing exciting, the same policies are intact and no one wants to rock the boat.

The economy may worsen or remain stagnant, or it may improve marginally but lacking in lustre.

Or number two, things could head south i.e. go downhill. The new government has no clue how to run the economy and throws caution to the wind.

They try to outdo the previous government’s fiscal irresponsibility and take the country down to even greater depths of deficit.

Or finally, a third scenario is possible: the new government seizes the day and carries out the economic policies and reforms it has laid out in its election manifesto.

If things are done properly and with full commitment to achieve broad-based and sustainable growth, we may well see economic transformation.

This is the road we will take.

In other words, a mere change of government will not lead to chaos in the economy. Certain conditions precedent must be met of course.

There must be due democratic process and, to my mind, this is best translated as good governance and the rule of law.

Ending rent seeking

No doubt the question of policy clarity takes precedence. Economic management must be based on sound policies – not knee jerk reactions.

There must also be continuity but this is subject to a major caveat: only bona fide, above board undertakings, ventures and enterprises will be continued.

Rent seeking and other crony driven schemes will meet their Maker sooner than later.

We know that the Najib administration has been taking our economy down the deficit path. And now, as the elections draw nearer, with the kind of money that would have been doled out we would inherit an economy which would be in even greater deficit.

So, efforts must be geared towards arresting this trend with the longer term objective of finally turning it around.

There will be no continuity of the Umno-BN model which has prevented Malaysia from attaining to higher-income status. What we have lost over the years in terms of “strategic advantage” we must strive to gain back.

We are a nation blessed with resourceful people. We must not allow this to drain away. In this process, it is of the greatest importance that there is good governance.

We can talk till the cows come home or till our faces turn dark blue or pay millions to consultants to come up with dazzling charts and models about transformation but, without good governance, that will just be public relations and empty rhetoric.

Failure in governance would include corruption in high office, lack of transparency in government dealings, and breakdown of accountability.

There must be meaningful structural reforms that will change the dynamics of how we want the nation’s economic pie to expand.

Investments in new sectors must be encouraged but allowing this to be monopolised by the elite few is a definite ‘no’.

In other words, we will encourage fair competition and the spreading of the economic pie.

We have nothing against big corporations but the priority is job creation and how these corporations fare in the overall scheme of social justice which indeed will be inseparable from the principles of economic management.

Another crucial area of concern is the balance between state-dominated ventures and private investment.

We have enough examples of private ventures particularly those in providing basic utilities which act more like oppressors of the people.

Because they are protected by Putrajaya they are not responsive to the people’s call for better service, let alone for more reasonable rates.

Crucial stage

In the international arena, our competitiveness must surely be another key area of focus for economic management not just in the transition period but for long-term sustainable growth.

The list is indeed long as to what we can do and what we must do at this crucial stage of our nation’s destiny.

Suffice it to say that in these deliberations, we are not just looking at pie charts, numbers and data, important as they are, but at the fundamental issues of governance.

In all these, we must remain steadfast in being guided by the safeguards and best practices of a vibrant constitutional democracy.

Economic management is not a game of one-upmanship but a duty of the highest calling to be discharged by those of the highest integrity for the well-being of the nation and the welfare of the people.

——————————————————————————–

These remarks were made by opposition leader ANWAR IBRAHIM at the opening of the forum titled, ‘Economic Management during Political Transition’ held on March 12, 2013 in Kuala Lumpur.

                This entry was posted on Wednesday, 13 March 2013, 5:19 am and is filed under
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Najib: More time needed to show results before polls

Malaysiakini-Bernama

11:38PM Mar 12, 2013

Before calling for the next general election, Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak said he first wanted to show to the people what had actually been achieved through the various initiatives in the country’s transformation agenda.

He said this in the ‘Conversation with the PM’ programme aired over TV3 tonight.

Noting that real changes were taking place since he took office in 2009, he said the government would need more time to ensure that the people felt the positive outcome of the transformation agenda.

“Because, when we plan things, it does take time (to show results), but I’m pleased that the outcome is positive,” he said.

Queried on the opposition pact’s election manifesto, Najib said the promises it contained would be impossible to deliver.

“The question is funding … that they have not stated. Based on what they have done, many of the promises contained in the (election) manifesto of 2008 have remained just empty promises,” he said.

On the opposition’s pledge to lower car prices, Najib said the government had taken a step-by-step approach in the matter.

“Basically, Malaysians can look forward to cheaper cars but, at the same time, (it will) not destruct the second-hand car market,” he said.

The government’s plan would also give time for local carmaker Proton to become more competitive, he said, adding that it would be a win-win situation and the best way forward for all those involved.

He urged Malaysians to have faith in the BN government to bring them a better future and take the country to greater heights as the best had yet to come.

He said the people should not gamble away their future by experimenting withan opposition comprising parties with markedly different agendas

Najib said they were even at loggerheads as to who should be the leader if they were to form the government.

However, the prime minister expressed confidence that the people were behind the government as the country prepared to hold the much-awaited 13th general election.

Economy on solid track

The prime minister said under BN, the economy was on a solid track.

“We have been able to buck the external global economic trend. In the last quarter, we achieved 6.4 percent growth, which indicates the resilience of the national economy.

“When we talk about benefits to the people from 2009 to 2011, our Gross National Income (GNI) per capita has grown from US$6,670 to US$9,970, roughly about 49 percent.

“There is no country in the world that has achieved this kind of result,” he said.

Najib said when the BN goes to the polls to seek a fresh mandate from the people, it was on the basis of a very solid track record.

“We can show the people that we have delivered,” he added.

– Bernama

                This entry was posted on Wednesday, 13 March 2013, 6:46 am and is filed under
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Save Malaysia from Dr M

by Martin Jalleh

                This entry was posted on Wednesday, 13 March 2013, 3:07 pm and is filed under
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Supporting Wong Tack as the Green Candidate in Bentong

by
CPI Asia

We, the undersigned individuals, support Himpunan Hijau’s proposal for its chairperson Wong Tack to stand as the green candidate under Pakatan Rakyat in Bentong, Pahang taking on Health Minister Liow Tiong Lai in the coming general elections.

Wong Tack’s candidacy signifies the frustrating scene of the green movement. Despite the unprecedented electoral setback in the March 8 political tsunami five years ago, the Government has demonstrated an arrogant and irresponsible attitude towards environmental protection. From the Lynas rare earth processing plant in Kuantan, cyanide gold mining in Raub, the proposed petrochemical plant in Pengerang, aluminum plant in Mukah, to the dams in Inland Sarawak and Cameron Highlands, environmentally harmful projects have been introduced or allowed operation in complete disregard of the well-being and health of the local residents and ecology.

Wong Tack’s candidacy is a milestone in green politics in Malaysia, which has so far been staying away from direct participation in electoral politics. Rallies and petitions in the past three years over the issues of Lynas, cyanide gold mining, Pengerang and other polluting projects have failed to bring any real policy changes. The angry roaring of communities and citizens has fallen on deaf ears of politicians and bureaucrats, who care more about the interests of foreign capital.

It is therefore time to have more green-minded lawmakers in our Parliament and State Legislative Assemblies to scrunitise our laws and policies to keep environmental disasters at bay. Wong Tack, whose team has effectively put Lynas in the minds of the Malaysian public, is certainly one of the most relevant and representative faces. In this regard, taking on Liow Tiong Lai will also be apt since the Health Minister has repeatedly neglected public interests and misinformed the public with regards to the Lynas plant, cyanide gold mining and the firing of tear gas and water cannons at Tung Shin Hospital in July 2011.

We call upon that the Malaysian public to throw unwavering support for the candidacies of Wong Tack and hopefully other green candidates. A strong support for the Green candidates may garner enough momentum to bring about a political sea change in this country and send a clear message to all polluting industries in the world: Malaysia is not the world’s rubbish dump. Whatever is not safe for other humans is also not safe for Malaysians. Only with the green voters standing up and being counted, can we hope that the green agenda will be taken seriously and upheld by the next Government, whichever coalition may be.

Salam Hijau.

1. Alan King, vice-chair, Johor Yellow Flame (JYF) 柔南黄色小组副主席郑凯聪

2. Datuk Ambiga Sreenevasan

3. Anil Netto, Treasurer, Aliran

4. Andrea Kan, Chairperson, Mama Bersih 净选盟妈妈主席 江燕雪

5. Andrew Cheng, vice-chair, Johor Yellow Flame (JYF) 柔南黄色小组副主席庄廷忠

6. Anne Ooi (Auntie Bersih)

7. Chan Wei See, editor, Sunflowerpaper 《向日葵》主编

8. Chang Teck Peng, media lecturer, HELP University 精英大学媒体讲师庄迪澎

9. Chaw Teck Long, Chair, Johor Yellow Flame (JYF) 柔南黄色小组主席萧德龙

10. Chong Kok Siong, Coordinator, Malaysians for Beng Hock 全民挺明福协调员庄国雄

11. Chong ChunYet, Coordinator, Gabungan NGO Pengerang 边加兰自救联盟总务张峻岳

12. Chua Peng Seng, Treasurer, Gabungan NGO Pengerang边加兰自救联盟财政蔡平先

13. Chun Wahhoo, Coordinator, Kill The Bill, 反对和平集会法令创意组织协调员陈文豪

14. Echo Koh Wee Sun, parenting writer  作家许慧珊

15. Eric Ng, Chair, Sunflower Electoral Education Programme (SEED) 向日葵选举教育计划 主席伍世浩

16. Dr Farouk Musa, Chair, Islamic Renaissance Front (IRF)

17. Prof Francis Loh Kok Wah, President, Aliran

18. Hishamuddin Rais (Tukar Tiub)

19. Hue Sherly, Vice-chair, Pahang Raub Ban Cyanide In Gold Mining Committee, 彭亨劳勿反山埃采金委员会副主席丘雪梨

20. Prof Lim Teck Ghee, Executive Director, Centre for Policy Initiatives 政策倡议中心林德宜教授

21. Leong Mei San, media scholar媒体学者梁美珊

22. Maria Chin Abdullah, women and human rights activist

23. Dr Mustafa K Anuar, committee member, Aliran

24. Ng Yap Hwa, coordinator, Malaysians for Beng Hock 全民挺明福协调员黄业华

25. Pow Kiew Aun, vice-chair, Sunflower Electoral Education Programme (SEED) 向日葵选举教育计划副主席包久安

26. Seng Siew Ping, secretary, Gabungan NGO Pengerang边加兰自救联盟秘书孙秀彬

27. Sim Seng San, vice-chair, Gabungan NGO Pengerang边加兰自救联盟副主席沈茂山

28. Tan Sek Choong, writer, Sunflowerpaper《向日葵》作者 陈式骢

29. Tan Woen Tian, coordinator, Malaysian Youth Against Public Hazards 大马青年反共害联盟协调员 陈闻天

30. Thomas Fann, coordinator, Johor People’s Action Committee (JPAC)

31. Teoh Lee Lan, spokesperson, Malaysians for Beng Hock全民挺明福发言人赵丽兰

32. Dr Toh Kin Woon, chair, LLG Cultural Development Centre 林连玉基金主席杜乾焕博士

33. Dr Wong Chin Huat, fellow, Penang Institute槟城研究院研究员黄进发博士

34. Wong Kim Hoong, Chair, Pahang Raub Ban Cyanide In Gold Mining Committee, 彭亨劳勿反山埃采金委员会主席黄金雄

35. Prof. Zaharom Nain, Nottingham University Malaysia

                This entry was posted on Wednesday, 13 March 2013, 3:00 pm and is filed under
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We must learn from the lessons of Lahad Datu

Melia Dangin

Malaysiakini

Mar 12, 2013

In the early 1990s, a small group of Filipino men heavily armed with M16s guns and grenade launchers appeared suddenly in Semporna town.

Their target? None other than the small Semporna police station, the nearby equally small marine base and the police barracks.

These marauders operated with military precision. How else do you explain their capability in trapping our security personnel in their own base?

They had positioned themselves strategically and rendered our men immobile.

They took control of Semporna for about 20 minutes from the time they cornered the police and moved to the town centre less than 800 metres away firing randomly into the air.

Fortunately, there were no casualties and a family of three who were taken hostage at a nearby kampung were unharmed. The marauders managed to escape the police cordon shortly before midnight that same day.

And it was fortunate too that the (pineapple-type) grenade hurled at police in the barracks failed to explode and was later detonated by bomb squad.

I remember arriving in Semporna to report for a local paper. It was a ghost town that greeted me. Shops were closed, hardly anyone around saved for a few private vehicles moving at high speed. Strewn on the ground were spent bullet casings.

The marauders did not come to rob and there was never an official explanation made by the authorities why the raid took place.

But local residents said it was in retaliation to the mass deportation of Filipino illegal immigrants in Semporna then. The armed men wanted to send a message.

History dictates that the coastal town of Semporna and its scattered islands are prone to attacks from armed foreign intruders.

From the time of the British colonial rule which had to deal with attacks from ‘mundu’ (pirates) and up till now, Semporna sure has colourful albeit horrifying tales of armed invaders.

So, how is that we never learnt from history? Could we have prevented the tragic loss of six good men in Semporna over a two day period not to mention the two shot dead by a group of self-proclaimed army of the defunct Sulu Sultanate in Lahad Datu?

I thought the 1990s incident when the police in Semporna were pinned down by a group of armed raiders, would jolt our government, the military, armed forces, marine and police, into enforcing better security alert over possible similar attacks in future.

Are we being complacent or ignorant?

Who were those marauders who were armed to the teeth? How was that they could easily infiltrate our borders and smuggled firearms into Sabah undetected again and again?

Are they connected to the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) who settle in Sabah amidst the conservatively estimated 800,000 Filipinos immigrants?

Is it any wonder how they appeared suddenly on our land?

Once I chance upon an appeal case in the High Court of Kota Kinabalu involving a convicted MNLF leader.

His presence would have gone unnoticed if not for the heavy presence of armed security personnel around the court building and escorting him.

He had requested the judge, who turned him down, to clear the court of reporters.

He made chilling revelations on how easy it was for him to land on one of the islands off Sandakan. He had fled from the Philippines security following arms clashes in Mindanao.

He was armed when he came and alleged police knew about him. He made it sound like he was initially welcomed but felt betrayed when he was arrested and sentenced to imprisonment for firearms possession.

He had appealed to serve his jail term in Sabah prison instead of in Peninsular Malaysia but was rejected.

And how many more people like him are already in Sabah?

And just how did we end up in this sorry situation? The massive illegal immigration from Indonesia especially from Southern Philippines is widely attributed to the lawlessness in Sabah.

Local residents started to feel unsafe in the early 1980s. That’s the time when iron grills installed on windows and doors started to appear at many homes due to an increase in robbery and housebreaking cases.

That’s the time when local leaders voiced concern over the sudden influx of illegal immigrants.

Then opposition Parti Bersatu Sabah which helmed the Sabah government (1985-1994) repeatedly brought the problem including Project IC, and its implications socially, economically and security-wise, in Parliament but only to be branded as being anti-federal.

The mainstream media had a field time playing the anti-federal issue to turn public sentiments against PBS.

The then Dr Mahathir Mohamad-led BN government even blamed the PBS for the problems instead of addressing them. How convenient!

But the truth finally surfaced in the on-going Royal Commission of Inquiry hearing with the shocking revelations of former ISA detainee Siti Aminah Mahmud of a conspiracy to topple the PBS government and to minimise the voting power of local Sabahans through Project IC.

This was a project that involved the issuance of ICs to illegal Muslim immigrants from the Philippines and Indonesia in exchange for votes and was long suspected by Sabahans as the cause for the state’s population increasing significantly in the late 1980s.

And Mahathir, among the leaders implicated in the project, is unrepentant.

Justifying the action was made in the interests of Muslim brotherhood and that the ICs were issued lawfully.

Tell that to the families of our eight dead heroes. Does Muslim brotherhood means we have to compromise the nation’s security?

Let us not forget the1986 riots in Sabah which occurred in response to the results of the 1985 state election whereby the newly formed PBS ousted (the now defunct) Parti Berjaya (a BN component then) from the helm of government.

The rioters took to the streets to bring down the PBS’ Joseph Kitingan from the chief minister’s post.

It was suspected that the riots were triggered by the losing parties including BN to bring forth a proclamation of emergency in order to justify a takeover by the federal government similar to those which happened in 1966 in Sarawak and 1977 in Kelantan.

Those rioters were mostly paid illegal immigrants used by power crazy leaders to satisfy their political agenda.

There was a time when Sabah saw a light at the end of the tunnel when MNLF founder Nur Misuari was appointed governor of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (1996-2002).

Shortly after his appointment in 1996, the BN government in Sabah led by then Chief Minister Yong Teck Lee, some state Umno leaders along with a large trade delegation (including journalists) made a bee line to Davao and several ARMM cities to establish trade ties in line with the Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippine East Asia Growth Area (BIMP-EAGA) agreement.

Sabah had hoped that with Misuari’s appointment and the BIMP-EAGA, the Southern Philippines would finally enjoy peace, stability and rebuild its economy battered by decades of armed confrontation between MNLF and their government.

And that the Filipino immigrants who fled to Sabah to avoid the conflict would return home.

Davao and the ARMM are beautiful regions unspoiled by development.

They have huge potential in tourism, copra and cottage industries.

Misuari had accorded, amidst tight security, our delegation a grand welcome complete with schoolchildren lining the streets when we arrived at the ARMM provincial capital, Cotabato.

That welcome was reciprocated by the Sabah government when he visited the state months later.

At a state banquet, Misuari had appealed the government not to deport his people immediately  as it would cause massive problems to his region.

Whatever hope Sabah had on Misuari’s appointment and the BIMP-EAGA was dashed when he fell out with the Philippines government five years later.

And over time, the illegal immigrant problem in Sabah has become too big to handle.

Just recently, a MNLF veteran was reported as saying in the Philippines that battle-hardened guerrillas MNLF had sailed from the Philippines to reinforce followers of the Sulu sultan who are battling our forces in Lahad Datu.

Muhajab Hashim, chairperson of the MNLF’s Islamic Command Council said although MNLF leaders had not officially instructed their men to sail to Malaysia, they fully supported the sultan’s efforts to reclaim Sabah.

What about Misuari who warned Prime Minister Najib Razak that fighting the Sulu gunmen “would be tantamount to war”?

The Philippines Inquirer quoted him saying that he was willing to send his grandnephew who lived in Malaysia and was a relative of Najib, to speak with the prime minister on a possible peaceful end to the standoff.

Peaceful end? Coming from a man who has been a rebel most of his life and who blew the only chance he had to rebuild his region and bring peace, stability and economic prosperity for his people?

Only the most ignorant of leaders would want to have anything to do with him. Unless of course, you are family…

How do we resolve such problems unique to Sabah?

Problems partly attributed by our own leaders bent to remain in power even if it means putting in jeopardy the nation’s security and violating the rights of Malaysians?

We know the difficulties faced by our security forces to patrol the long and porous sea border with the Philippines.

All the more reason why the government must revamp border security and immigration policies for Sabah, where hundreds of thousands of Filipinos (and Indonesians) have headed in recent decades – many of them illegally – to seek work and stability, resulting in social, economic and security headaches for Sabah.

The government must take drastic steps to revoke all illegally issued ICs including those under Project IC.

If the present government lacks the political will to do so then for the sake of our future generations Malaysians should stand united to vote for a new government who will.

As a daughter of a policeman, I share the feelings and emotions of our security personnel seeing their fallen comrades and my deepest condolences to the families of these fallen heroes.

May they not have died in vain.

                This entry was posted on Wednesday, 13 March 2013, 5:40 am and is filed under
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28-Day Countdown to 13GE – Najib’s “Alice-in-Wonderland Statistics in his Transformational Malaysian Economy”

I have received an email from a retired international banker from the Malaysian Diaspora, who describes himself as a “Fact-Finder” monitoring the Malaysian economy, sharing his outrage on what he described as Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s “Alice-in-Wonderland Statistics in  his Transformational Malaysian Economics” in his hour-long television interview on Tuesday.

I find this email so interesting, perceptive and pertinent that I am reproducing it in full, viz:

”
Misuse of Data

The Prime Minister cut a rather sorry figure in his appearance on TV3’s programme entitled
‘Conversation with the PM’
 aired on March 12th.

His remarks were a disappointment as he indulged in delivering clichés and ‘feel good’ statements concerning the state of the economy. He missed an opportunity to present a clear a vision of what he stands for.

There was no indication of the range of policies a Barisan National  Government under his leadership, if re- elected, would offer.

He failed dismally to state how a new administration would tackle the host of problems that have accumulated during his four-year watch. The most significant of these problems are:

•	The sharp increase in debt, both public and private;

•	The persistent Federal Government deficits despite GDP growth rates averaging 5 percent per annum;

•	Stagnant wage and earning levels that have failed to reflect the fruits of growth;

•	The failure of private investment to respond to the so-called stimulative and incentive measures announced in successive Budgets;

•	The ever-growing cancer of corruption.

There were two key themes in his interview that responded to a ‘soft’ questions posed to him.

Najib was in a pure electioneering mood wherein he was at pains to criticize the Pakatan Rakyat’s election manifesto by claiming that the promises it contained would be impossible to deliver.

However, he made no attempt to indicate as to what the BN offered in terms of specific policies and measures that would go towards meeting the challenges confronting the nation and in uplifting the living standards of the vast majority of the population facing widening income disparities.

The second theme taken up by him was a rather brazen set of claims about economic well-being that are patently false.

Bernama quoted that Najib said that when the BN goes to the polls to seek a fresh mandate from the people, it was on the basis of a very solid track record. He went on to say: “We can show the people that we have delivered,” he added.

He is further quoted by Bernama as saying: “When we talk about benefits to the people from 2009 to 2011, our Gross National Income (GNI) per capita has grown from US$6,670 to US$9,970, roughly about 49 percent.

“There is no country in the world that has achieved this kind of result,” he said.

To appreciate fully the import of these statements, it is appropriate to point out:

•	GNI per capita is measured in current prices; therefore never used to calculate a growth rate. In national accounts, all growth rates are calculated in CONSTANT PRICE terms. E.G. GDP growth rate is always in constant prices.

•	The numbers cited by the Prime Minister are a fabrication and deviate widely from the GNI per capita numbers for Malaysia published by the World Bank on its web site :

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD/countries/MY-4E-XT?display=default

The World Bank website shows that the numbers were:

2009—– US$7,550

2010—– US$8,090

2011——US$8,770

•	The World Bank calculations are in US dollars with certain adjustments to ensure inter-country comparability of GNI per capita levels AT A POINT IN TIME. This is the so-called World Bank Atlas method and the almost universally accepted measure for reporting per capita GNI.  The World Bank data sets NEVER show growth rates of GNI per capita in US dollars OVER TIME in the way Najib has done. Thus, the 49% figure is based on an inappropriate calculation and the number is wholly meaningless and therefore misleading. The true measure of a country’s performance is shown by the GDP growth rate expressed in constant prices. On that basis the Malaysian economy grew at approximately 5.0 percent per annum over the three year time span cited by Najib.

•	It is also wholly inappropriate to use flawed calculations of the type cited by Najib in inter-country comparisons. Thus the statement: “”There is no country in the world that has achieved this kind of result,” is nonsensical.

To place matters in perspective, Najib has made three claims.

•	First, that Malaysia has achieved a GNI per capita level of US$ 9,970 in 2011.  This is incorrect. The World Bank figure was US$8,770. Thus he overstated the level by US$ 1,200. This is a sizable overstatement.

•	Second, he has calculated a growth rate based on current price terms. This is an inappropriate measure. If indeed he wishes to make the point that there has been per capita income growth, he should have used GDP per capita numbers in constant prices. Had he done so, the rate of growth would have been around 3 percent per annum.

•	Third, he has attempted an implied inter-country comparison of erroneous growth rates when he says “… no country has achieved…”———– this is totally wrong. These are Alice in Wonderland statistics not worthy of the Prime Minister.

This is patently a classic example of how to lie with statistics and hoodwink the public at large. However, serious analysts and market observers will see through this shard. Najib’s credibility will be seriously impaired and the entire attempt will be seen as a cheap stunt and bring shame to the country.

The Prime Minister is an economist by training and should know better unless of course he is totally ignorant of basics. Or perhaps he believes that the public at large can be fooled into believing made-up numbers such as these and misrepresentations based thereof.

 It is thus legitimate to ask the Prime Minister: Where is there tangible evidence of such a huge increase in terms of per capita household consumption? Where is the evidence that households now enjoy income levels of this magnitude? With manufactured statistics such as these, the Prime Minister has lost all credibility! ”

Malaysians are entitled to a response from Najib whether he had lied in his statistics or whether he had been grossly misinformed and misguided by his coterie of economic advisers to make  false claims in the hour-long television interview  about Malaysia’s per capita GNI growth from 2009 – 2012, in particular about Malaysia being the world’s fastest country in per capita GNI growth in the two years from 2009 to 2011?

                This entry was posted on Thursday, 14 March 2013, 1:48 pm and is filed under
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A beast out of time

By
Stan CH Lee
 | 13 March 2013

The Drawing Is On The Wall

If there is any doubt that the time is up for BN, it will be swiftly removed by watching the actions of its minions trying to show their strength and power at the most primitive, gutteral level possible. In scenes that belongs more to a WWE ring than on the streets of Malaysia, the BN hoodlums and hired thugs try to intimidate sensible Malaysians by acting in the most violent, disgusting ways. They have been raining stones and bottles on PR Ceramahs. They have gatecrashed talks and thrown chairs around. They have attacked PR buses. They have tried to kick down the glass doors at LGE’s office. They have even thrown fists at Nurul.

They have also set up their very loud ceramahs in the immediate vicinity of planned PR talks with the intent of drowning out the opposition with their superior sound systems. Everything about them is big, loud, brash. All these were done with the Police simply watching. Tacitly approved by the silence of the BN leadership.

Thankfully, the PR crowd has been behaving very sensibly with no physical retaliation, leading the rowdy hoodlums to think they are winning the battles when they succeed in getting away with their violence. But what these goons have failed to realise is that they are already losing the war. What their neanderthall brain cannot grasp is that the battlefield is no longer the streets of Malaysia.

The real battle is being waged in the hearts and minds of the increasingly weary populace. We, the people are tired of the thugonomics being shoved down our throats.. We are fedup of the cavemen being let loose in the country. And definitely we are aghast at the antics of the barbarians looting the coffers. And contrary to what these dinosaurs from another era think, we are fighting back. Only not with our fist or our body.  The weapon of choice of the new Malaysian is not a gun and definitely not a keris and not even a threatening look and certainly not with violence. We subscribe to the wisdom of the adage- “Violence begets violence”.

Our weapon is love. A love for the country. And a burning desire to not see it go the way of the dinosaurs. And this love is manifested in the unsolicited, unselfish outpouring of support for the cause of saving Malaysia.

To this end, we even have the unwitting support of the BN thugs. Obviously lost on them is the fact that we are no longer living in a cave and that even when they do not see dinosaurs like TV3 or RTM, it does not mean they are away from the glare of the media. In this brave new world, the power to broadcast news is in eveybody’s hands. If you remember, a team of producers have to go around paying people to queue up for a video supposedly to manufacture a non existent water shortage in Selangor to be used in their propaganda war against the PR government.

In an ironic twist, we have armies after armies of BN troops voluntarily acting out their violent message, fangs fully bared for all the world to see. Right in the crosshairs of thousands of cellphone cameras. So many clips of their mindless acts have gone viral! And we do not even have to pay them even a single cent. Hopefully, it will eventually dawn on them that “Might is right” does not belong in this day and age. This is the 21st century, not the Jurassic age. We talk, we reason, not club each other on the head when we cannot agree.

More and more, BN is behaving and looking like a dinosaur from the mists of the past. It is using tactics that used to work a long time ago. Very long ago.  Not anymore.  The fact that BN is aware of and have access to new technology is reflective of it being mentally stuck in the stone age, a living fossil of the statement “First world infrastructure, third world mentality”. Totally out of touch with the modern world, it is out of its element and already out of time. Intent on keeping the skeletons from falling out of its cave, it is a cornered animal, dangerously desperate in it ferocity. An anachronism that still thinks it is relevant in this day and age. For BN, The sands of time have run out. They may not know it yet, but they are now on quicksand. And sinking fast, thrashing violently in its final death throes, causing untold damage to the country. It is time to put the beast out of its misery once and for all.

Someone please, please ring the bell!

———————————————————————————————————-

Stan CH Lee – Malaysian at heart. Now freezing my butt off in Toronto.Until early January 2013, I communicate and express myself mainly through drawings and pictures, not much different from the caveman of yore when I was a firm believer in the adage “A picture is worth a thousand words”.I used to be a storyboard artist, cartoonist, airbrush artist, 3D animator and perspective artist and still cannot resist the urge to doodle and squiggle. But I wanted to put a finger (2 fingers?) on the collective pulse of the nation and share my thoughts with all and sundry.

Then I discovered, some things are better said in words.

                This entry was posted on Thursday, 14 March 2013, 11:59 am and is filed under
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Is Malaysia pioneering a new-fangled “trial by police reports” in the latest twist of injustice and selective prosecution under Malaysia’s “rule by law”?

The charging of Parti Keadilan Rakyat’s Vice President and MP for Batu, Chua Tian Chang for sedition for allegedly linking Umno to the Sulu-Police shoot-outs in Lahad Datu in the Kuala Lumpur Sessions Court today is most regrettable and deplorable, for two reasons:

Firstly, it would appear that the Federal Government of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak is not prepared to provide the lead and set the example to unite and rally all Malaysians, regardless of race, religion and political affiliation as one patriotic Malaysian people to face up to the challenges posed by the Sulu terrorists to protect unequivocally our  national sovereignty and the right to security of the people of Sabah and the security forces.

Is this the reason why the Cabinet in two consecutive meetings yesterday and the previous Wednesday refused to act on the proposal for the convening of a special session of Parliament on a six-point proposal (1) to give full support to the security forces to take all necessary measures to protect the national sovereignty and security; (2) pay tribute and honour to the nine fallen heroes from the police and armed forces in the shoot-outs in Lahad Datu and Semporna;  (3) set up a special foundation to look after the welfare of the families of the fallen heroes and ensure the  life-long education up to university level for their children at government expense; (4) condemn the atrocities committed against the fallen heroes by Sulu terrorists; (5) urge the immediate halt of the annual “cession payment” of RM5,300 to the self-proclaimed heir of Sulu Sultanate and (6) to call on the Philippines Government to drop all claims to Sabah.

Secondly, the prosecution of Tian Chua is setting a most dangerous precedent for the grave and gross miscarriage of justice in present-day Malaysia for at least two reasons:

This is a case of selective prosecution as it is politically motivated. Not only has Tian Chua denied that he had insulted the security forces like describing the death of the police commandoes as “mati katak” (dying in vain), he is instituting defamation proceedings to clear his name of these slander and lies.

The failure by the Attorney-General Tan Sri Gani Patail  to prosecute those who had said things which are a thousand times more seditious and who had refused to deny what they had said or to act against those who had clearly committed treason against the country.

Whether Malaysia is pioneering a new-fangled “trial by police reports” – in addition to the unacceptable “trial by media” – in the latest twist of injustice and selective prosecution under Malaysia’s unjust  “rule by law”? The police have said that as of yesterday, 318 police reports throughout the country had been lodged against Chua.  Is Gani Patail going to be first Attorney-General in the world whose decision whether to prosecute or not will depend on the number of police reports lodged on the matter – however contrived and politically-motivated this may be?

Malaysians should end the madness of division and dissension among themselves when they should unite and stand as one against external threats like the Sulu terrorist incidents in Lahad Datu and Semporna.

There should be an immediate end to finger-pointing to fix blame for the Sabah Sulu crisis as the priority must to restore peace, calm and normalcy fo the east coast of Sabah in the shortest possible time.

The prosecution of Tian Chua is completely unjustifiable, indefensible and discriminatory especially as the PKR leader had denied the allegations made against him and has in fact instituted legal proceedings to clear his name.

I reiterate my call on all Malaysian political parties and leaders to focus on what should unite the people rather than what can divide the people at this moment of the Sabah Sulu crisis, which have cost the lives of eight policemen and two solders, and grave hardships to the Sabahans in the affected areas in Sabah – particularly the Eastern Sabah Security Command (ESSCOM) stretching from Kudat to Tawau on the east coast and which has Lahad Datu as the central command.

In the spirit of greater national unity, the Attorney-General should reconsider and drop all charges against Tian Chua who had denied the allegations against him, as he should only  charge those who refused to deny, retract or apologise for their blatant seditious utterances and treasonous acts in the Sabah Sulu crisis.

                This entry was posted on Thursday, 14 March 2013, 5:38 pm and is filed under
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It’s not the economy, stupid

by ONG KIAN MING

MARCH 13, 2013

KiniBiz

A foreign fund manager asked me this question last month – “What exactly are Malaysians unhappy with?” After all, the country grew by 5.6% in 2012 compared to a lethargic 1.2% for Singapore for the same year. Investment, measured by gross fixed capital formation grew by an astounding 25% in 2012 compared to a lacklustre 10.2% in 2011.

As a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP – sum of goods and services produced in a year), investment was approximately 26% in 2012 compared to only 18% in 2009. Foreign direct investment in 2012 reached RM34.8 billion, a significant improvement on the abysmal RM5.0 billion in 2009.

The government seems to have a clear plan of action in putting the country back on track via the Economic and Government Transformation Plans (ETP and GTP). The shopping malls and hotels are bustling in Kuala Lumpur. New buildings and hotels are sprouting up all around the Klang Valley area.

The LRT and MRT projects will address the congestion problems in the Greater KL area and increase property values and development opportunities around their vicinity. Malaysia also had the 2nd and 3rd largest public listing in the world after Facebook via Felda Global Ventures Holding (FGVH) and IHH Healthcare.

Things seem to be looking pretty good for the country. But why is there still talk of the Barisan Nasional losing power in the upcoming general election?

A similar puzzle confronted George Bush Senior in the run up to his 1992 presidential campaign. He enjoyed approval ratings exceeding 90% during the successful Operation Desert Storm in 1991 where Saddam Hussein’s troops were routed after trying to invade Kuwait. A year later, his approval ratings tanked over the perception that he was mishandling the economy which led to Bill Clinton’s now infamous tagline “It’s the economy, stupid”.

In Malaysia, Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak is facing a similar quandary. Except that in his case, it doesn’t seem to be the economic performance of the country that is holding him back. In fact, the string of seemingly positive economic news that would have raised the popularity of a national leader in any other country seems to have almost no effect on his approval ratings which registered a 2% dip in the latest Merdeka Survey polls in February 2013. What gives? Have Malaysians suddenly gone mad?

I would like to propose that there are perfectly rational and logical reasons for the lack of responsiveness on the part of the average Malaysian to all this positive economic news.

Firstly, economic growth is not filtering down to the man on the street.

Our gross national income per capita has grown impressively, in nominal terms, from RM24,879 in 2009 to RM30,809 in 2012, a 24% increase. If this growth is equally distributed between corporations and wage earners and also within all wage earners, each working adult should be earning at least 25% more today compared to 3 years ago.

But the economic growth figures sit uneasily with the number of people who have successfully applied for BR1M (Bantuan Rakyat 1 Malaysia – a government scheme which awards cash to the poor) 1.0 and are currently applying for BR1M 2.0.

A total of RM2.6 billion was distributed in 2012 to 5.2 million households even though the budget initially projected for only RM1.8 billion to be distributed to 3.4 million households. This means that 80% of the 6.4 million households in Malaysia were earning less than RM3,000 a month rather than the initially estimated 3.4 million households (or 53%).

This stands in marked contrast to the RM30,809 GNI per capita in 2012 or RM2,567 per month per person or RM10,270 a month for a household of four. Clearly the economic output in the country isn’t being distributed in a manner that is being enjoyed by a majority of Malaysians.

The BR1M 2.0 figures are even more astounding. RM3 billion was set aside in the 2013 budget for an estimated 4.3m households earning less than RM3,000 a month and 2.7m single unmarried individuals earning less than RM2,000 a month for a total of seven million handouts. In other words, even as GDP grew by 5.6% last year and GDP per capita increased to RM32,000, there are going to be MORE people applying for BR1M compared to a year ago.

If the anticipated ‘trickle-down effect’ to the man on the street arising from healthy economic growth has not been felt, then the big headline numbers – record investments, higher growth, higher GDP per capita, more Entry Point Projects (EPPs) under the ETP – which have been incessantly announced and highlighted by Najib’s economic team would mean little to most of the voting public.

Secondly, real wages have stagnated over the past 10 years especially for those at the bottom. In addition, the problem of underemployment seems to plague many fresh graduates.

Even if economic growth was not evenly distributed, as is often the case, its positive impact would be felt more if those at the bottom of the economic ladder saw increases in their real wages and purchasing power. But in the last 10 years, the World Bank estimated that the average increase in wages in Malaysia was approximately 2.6% which is lower than the average inflation rate of 2.8%. In other words, average real wages have decreased over the past 10 years.

To put this another way, the starting salary of a graduate in 1978 was approximately RM1,100 a month. In 2010, this has increased to an average of RM2,500. But in 1978, it would have taken 56 months of a starting salary (or slightly less than 5 years) to buy a 2-storey house in Taman Tun Dr Ismail (a KL suburb) for RM62,000. In 2010, it would take 140 months of a starting salary (or about 12 years) to buy a RM350,000 2-storey house in Nilai, Negeri Sembilan.

Despite the current 3% unemployment rate, other survey data reveal a deeper underlying problem of underemployment among many Malaysians including our graduates.

In a 2011 study done by the Ministry of Higher Education on graduates within 6 months of their graduation, it was found that 25% of degree holders, 24% of diploma holders and 36% of certificate holders still had not started working yet. And even among those who are working, only 64% had permanent jobs while 19.6% were on contract and 14% were holding temporary jobs. This survey also revealed that 70% of fresh graduates earned less than RM2,500 a month with the largest group (29%) earning less than RM1,500 a month.

The only sector of the economy which seemed to have experienced a steady increase in real wages is the public sector. The average wage rate in Wilayah Perseketuan Putrajaya is RM6,746 a month in 2009 compared to RM5,962 a month for the next highest state which is Selangor.

Small wonder that it was reported earlier this year that the Public Service Commission received over 1.1 million job applications out of a possible 46,000 appointments for public service jobs. And this is 1.1 million applications out of a labor force of approximately 13 million people!

For these underemployed graduates with salaries below RM2,500 a month, not to mention those without degrees who are earning much less than these graduates, any talk of a growing GDP and the ETP hitting nearly all of its targets would ring hollow.

Thirdly, increased expectations as well as increased scepticism are working against the BN administration.

The BN government was able to stave off the prediction of modernisation theory – which says that development would bring about greater demands for democracy by an increasingly sophisticated electorate – because it was able to generate gravity defying economic growth during the 1990s.

It was undoubtedly helped by the presence of repressive laws, restrictions in the dissemination of information and a fragmented opposition. Even the 1998 Asian economic crisis was not sufficient to overturn BN’s electorate advantage. The 2008 general elections changed the political landscape and political equation for good.

Increased access to information, denser communication networks especially through social media, and higher levels of education mean that it would take much more than just good economic news to convince the Malaysian electorate that the country is on the right track. It seems that all it takes these days is for another ‘Cowgate’ scandal or accusations of a RM24m ring to undermine whatever positive publicity that may have been generated from the multitude of KPIs (key performance indicators) being achieved under the GTP or the ETP.

The experiences of many a voter, amplified by social media, makes them very sceptical of the positive reports being generated by the government that crime and corruption are being effectively tackled.

Hence, despite enjoying a popularity rating that is over 60%, Najib cannot escape from the much lower ratings enjoyed by his government and by the BN, which failed to even break the 50% mark, according to the latest polls by the Merdeka Centre.

In many ways, Najib is seen as carrying too much baggage – his own and more importantly, the accumulated baggage of BN’s 56 years in power. The desire for what political scientists have termed ‘self-expression values’ over and above that of immediate economic benefits has proven too strong for the BN government to resist. The historic Bersih 3.0 gathering, numbering more than 200,000 people, according to some estimates, exemplifies this desire for greater self-expression.

The experiences of Mexico and Taiwan offer interesting comparisons to Malaysia.

After being in power for almost 60 years, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) in Mexico won a bitterly contested and some said stolen, presidential election in 1988. The gradual political reforms that were forced on the PRI by opposition parties would subsequently pave the way for the opposition National Action Party (PAN) to win the 2000 presidential elections. This was despite outgoing PRI president, Ernesto Zedillo, presiding over a country that grew by an average of 3.7% from 1996 to 2000 after averaging a sickly 2% from 1989 to 1994 under Carlos Salinas.

Taiwan had its first popularly elected President in Lee Teng Hui of the long ruling Kuomintang in 1996 and he presided over an increasingly democratic Taiwan which grew by an average of 4.8% from 1996 to 2000. In a three-cornered fight in the 2000 presidential election, opposition candidate Chen Shui Bian defeated Kuomintang’s Lien Chen and former KMT leader James Soong ushering in a peaceful democratic transition of power in this state.

It remains to be seen if Malaysia will experience a similar peaceful democratic transition in the upcoming general election. But one thing is for certain, “it’s no longer only about the economy, stupid…”

_
_______________________________________

Ong Kian Ming is the DAP’s election strategist. He can be reached at
[email protected]
.

                This entry was posted on Thursday, 14 March 2013, 7:55 am and is filed under
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