Abstract:
One embodiment of the invention provides a machine-readable medium embodying a method of providing a list of individuals who are most likely to move, payoff or refinance their mortages. The method includes receiving demographic data, customer data and property data from a database, and creating a plurality of records, each record pertaining to an individual and including the demographic data, the customer data and the property data. The method also includes calculating a propensity score for each record, determining rules that relate to the propensity scores, and applying the rules to each record to form a target list.

Description:
CLAIM OF PRIORITY UNDER 35 U.S.C. §119 
       [0001]    The present Application for Patent claims priority to Provisional Application No. 60/815,022 filed Jun. 20, 2006, and assigned to the assignee hereof and hereby expressly incorporated by reference herein. 
     
     FIELD OF THE INVENTION 
       [0002]    The invention relates generally to mortgage customers. More particularly, the invention relates to systems and methods for retaining mortgage customers. 
       DESCRIPTION OF THE RELATED ART 
       [0003]    Many homeowners have a mortgage on their homes. Banks and lending institutions are constantly competing with one another to offer lower rates and better incentives to persuade homeowners to refinance their homes. Many different ways are current being used to market new loans to homeowners. For example, one commonly used method is to mail an offer with a very low “teaser” rate to thousands of homeowners. This is often referred to as a mass mailing. Mass mailings are ineffective as many homeowners throw away mortgage offers and treat them as junk mail. 
         [0004]    Another commonly used method to market to homeowners is the Internet. Some banks and lending institutions resort to Internet advertising in an attempt to gain new mortgage customers. These Internet advertisements generally require the borrower to complete a loan application on the Internet. However, the process of completing a loan application on the Internet has several drawbacks. First, the loan application generally needs to be completed before a mortgage rate can be given to the borrower. Second, the process of completing a loan application requires a great deal of time. Third, many borrowers feel uncomfortable transmitting large amounts of confidential information over the Internet. 
         [0005]    Mass marketing and Internet advertising are very expensive and generally leads to a small amount of business. Banks and lending institutions are trying to develop more effective ways of marketing to homeowners. One way is to determine when a homeowner is going to move, payoff or refinance their mortgage. However, it is very difficult to predict when a homeowner is going to move, payoff or refinance their mortgage. The difficulty becomes apparent by looking at the statistics, which show that over 75 percent of all refinancing transactions are performed by a new lender. If the bank or lending institution is fortunate enough to obtain the new loan, statistics show that the new loan amount generally increases by up to 30 percent. Therefore, it is increasing important to create a way to identify and target customers that are about to move, payoff or refinance their mortgages. 
     
     
       BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS 
         [0006]      FIG. 1  is a block diagram of a scoring system that calculates and outputs scores to assist marketing individuals in directed marketing efforts to retain mortgage customers according to an embodiment of the invention. 
           [0007]      FIGS. 2A-2D  includes a list of 65 variables that may be input as the customer data according to an embodiment of the invention. 
           [0008]      FIG. 3  is a flow chart of a method of determining and grouping individuals that are more likely to move, payoff or refinance their mortgages according to an embodiment of the invention. 
           [0009]      FIG. 4  is a flow chart of a method of calculating a mover score, a payoff score and a refinance score according to an embodiment of the invention. 
           [0010]      FIG. 5  is a graphical user interface that displays rules and allows the user to select the rules to obtain a desired group of individuals to target according to an embodiment of the invention. 
           [0011]      FIG. 6  is a table of the pretell customer retention solution according to an embodiment of the invention. 
           [0012]      FIG. 7  is a table showing that the deciles shown in  FIG. 5  with the highest scores have the highest propensity to move, payoff or refinance their loans according to an embodiment of the invention. 
           [0013]      FIG. 8  is a menu listing various product types according to an embodiment of the invention. 
       
    
    
     SUMMARY 
       [0014]    One embodiment of the invention provides a machine-readable medium embodying a method of providing a list of individuals who are most likely to move, payoff or refinance their mortgages. The method includes receiving demographic data, customer data and property data from a database, and creating a plurality of records, each record pertaining to an individual and including the demographic data, the customer data and the property data. The method also includes calculating a propensity score for each record, determining rules that relate to the propensity scores, and applying the rules to each record to form a target list. 
         [0015]    One embodiment of the invention provides an apparatus for providing a list of individuals who are most likely to move, payoff or refinance their mortgages. The apparatus includes a database for storing demographic data, customer data and property data, and a data matching and appending module for creating a record for a plurality of individuals, the record including the demographic data, the customer data and the property data. The apparatus also includes a scoring module for calculating a propensity score for each record, a rules module for determining rules that relate to the propensity scores, and a group module for applying the rules to each record to form a target list. 
       DETAILED DESCRIPTION 
       [0016]    Systems and methods that implement the embodiments of the various features of the invention will now be described with reference to the drawings. The drawings and the associated descriptions are provided to illustrate embodiments of the invention and not to limit the scope of the invention. Reference in the specification to “one embodiment” or “an embodiment” is intended to indicate that a particular feature, structure, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment is included in at least an embodiment of the invention. The appearances of the phrase “in one embodiment” or “an embodiment” in various places in the specification are not necessarily all referring to the same embodiment. Throughout the drawings, reference numbers are re-used to indicate correspondence between referenced elements. 
         [0017]      FIG. 1  is a block diagram of a scoring system  100  that calculates and outputs scores to assist marketing individuals in directed marketing efforts to retain mortgage customers according to an embodiment of the invention. The scoring system  100  may include one or more databases, for example, a demographic information database  105 , a mortgage customer database  115 , and a property records database  125 . For illustrative purposes, three databases are depicted in  FIG. 1 ; however, other embodiments are possible which include any number of databases. 
         [0018]    The demographic information database  105  includes demographic data  110  about a mortgage customer (i.e., a borrower). The demographic data  110  may be an input file provided by a third party provider such as Acxiom Corporation. The demographic data  110  may include the age of the head of household, the race of the head of household, the number of children, the household income, the average home price in the area, and the number of credit cards issued to the head of household. 
         [0019]    The mortgage customer database  110  includes customer data  120  about the mortgage customer. The customer data  120  may be an input file provided by a third party provider such as Wells Fargo Corporation.  FIGS. 2A-2D  includes a list of 65 variables that may be input as the customer data  120  according to an embodiment of the invention. All 65 variables are not required to be input; however, the more variables that are input, the greater the accuracy of the scores (e.g., the mover score  150 , the payoff score  151  and the refinance score  152 ). The variables may be input using a graphical user interface. 
         [0020]    The property records database  125  includes property data  130  about the borrower&#39;s property. The property data  130  may be an input file provided by a third party provider such as First American Real Estate Solutions. The property data  130  may include the borrower&#39;s name and address, the number of bedrooms and bathrooms of the property, the lot size of the property, the square footage of the property, the appraisal amount of the property, the liens (e.g., first and second) on the property, all historical transactions related to that specific property owner, the dates of those transactions, the type of loan, the institution originating the loan, the original loan balance, and other loan-specific information where available. 
         [0021]      FIG. 3  is a flow chart of a method  300  of determining and grouping individuals that are more likely to move, payoff or refinance their mortgages according to an embodiment of the invention. Referring to  FIG. 1 , the scoring system  100  includes a data matching and appending module  135 . The data matching and appending module  135  receives the demographic data  110  from the demographic information database  105 , the customer data  120  from the mortgage customer database  115 , and the property data  130  from the property records database  125  ( 305 ) and appends or groups the data corresponding to the same person and property together to form a record  140  ( 310 ). Each record  140  includes the demographic data  110 , the customer data  120 , and the property data  130  for a particular property and the borrower of that particular property. Each record  140  is transmitted to a pretell scoring platform  145  ( 315 ). 
         [0022]    The pretell scoring platform  145  uses the demographic data  110 , the customer data  120 , and the property data  130  to calculate a mover score  150 , a payoff score  151  and a refinance score  152  for each record  140  ( 320 ).  FIG. 4  is a flow chart of a method  400  of calculating a mover score, a payoff score and a refinance score according to an embodiment of the invention. In one embodiment, the pretell scoring platform  145  provides the demographic data  110 , the customer data  120 , and the property data  130  for each record as inputs to a unique mathematical formula ( 405 ). Each model has a different mathematical formula that emphasizes (i.e., weights) the different inputs. For example, input  16  (months_to_reset—months to next rate reset) in  FIG. 2A  is important to an ARM loan but is not important to a Fixed Loan. The unique mathematical formula outputs a raw number, for example, between −1 and 6.2 ( 410 ). The pretell scoring platform  145  performs a normal distribution on the raw number to produce a normalized score ( 415 ). The normalized score value may be calculated using the following formula: normalized score value=1000+100(B 0 +B 1 z)/ln(2), where B 0  and B 1  are parameter estimates and z is the raw number. B 0  and B 1  are different for each model. The normalized score is scaled to a number between 1 and 1,000 to produce a numeric score ( 420 ). The numeric score is unique to each model (e.g., the mover score  150 , the payoff score  151 , and the refinance score  152 ) and is based on the demographic data  110 , the customer data  120 , and the property data  130 . Hence, each raw score is transformed, normalized and standardized so that the respective score ranges in value from 0 to 1,000. Table I shows how the normalization process converts the raw score value to a normalized score ranging in value from 0 to 1,000. 
         [0000]    
       
         
               
               
               
               
             
               
               
               
               
             
           
               
                 TABLE I 
               
               
                   
               
               
                 Score (S) 
                 Rate 
                 Probability (p) 
                 Odds 
               
               
                   
               
             
             
               
                   
               
             
          
           
               
                 1,000 
                 ½ 
                 0.50000 
                 1:1 
               
               
                 900 
                 ⅓ 
                 0.33333 
                 1:2 
               
               
                 800 
                 ⅕ 
                 0.20000 
                 1:4 
               
               
                 700 
                  1/9 
                 0.11111 
                 1:8 
               
               
                 600 
                  1/17 
                 0.05882 
                 1:16 
               
               
                 500 
                  1/33 
                 0.03030 
                 1:32 
               
               
                 400 
                  1/65 
                 0.01538 
                 1:64 
               
               
                 300 
                  1/129 
                 0.00775 
                 1:128 
               
               
                 200 
                  1/257 
                 0.00389 
                 1:256 
               
               
                 100 
                  1/513 
                 0.00195 
                 1:512 
               
               
                 0 
                  1/1025 
                 0.00098 
                 1:1024 
               
               
                   
               
             
          
         
       
     
         [0023]    The mover score  150 , the payoff score  151 , and the refinance score  152  are used for targeted marketing campaigns. 
         [0024]    The mover score  150  is a measure of the borrower&#39;s propensity to move within a specified time period from the particular property owned by the borrower. The specified time period may be 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, or 12 months. The payoff score  151  is a measure of the borrower&#39;s propensity to payoff the entire loan amount for the particular property within the specified time period. The refinance score  152  is a measure of the borrower&#39;s propensity to refinance the particular property owned by the borrower within the specified time period. In one embodiment, the mover score  150 , the payoff score  151  and the refinance score  152  are numbers between 1 and 1000. The lower the number, the less likely the borrower is going to move, payoff or refinance and the higher the number, the more likely the borrower is going to move, payoff or refinance. A mover, payoff or refinance score of 100, for example, means that the borrower is not likely to move, payoff or refinance within the next 6 months. On the other hand, a mover, payoff or refinance score of 900, for example, means that the borrower is likely to move, payoff or refinance within the next 6 months. The mover score  150 , the payoff score  151  and the refinance score  152  can be low numbers, middle numbers, high numbers or combinations thereof. 
         [0025]    The pretell scoring platform  145  may also calculate a national average mover score  153 , a regional average mover score  154 , a national average payoff score  155 , a regional average payoff score  156 , a national average refinance score  157 , and a regional average refinance score  158 . These scores are calculated as loan amount based dollar-weighted averages for each respective region/segment. The region may be defined as a city, a county, or a state, or may include a number of cities, counties, or states. 
         [0026]    The pretell scoring platform  145  may also calculate a sensitivity measure (a.k.a. volatility score) for each product type. The volatility of a borrower can be determined by the sensitivity measure. The sensitivity measure is the customer&#39;s score sensitivity to a basis point, for example, 50 basis points (½ percentage point), increase or decrease in interest rates. The sensitivity measure is calculated based on the changes in score value when interest rates (e.g., the 1-year and 10-year Treasury rates) are reduced by a basis point. The sensitivity measure allows one to compare which borrowers are most sensitive to movements in interest rates amongst all borrowers with equivalent or similar score values. 
         [0027]    The mover score  150 , the payoff score  151 , the refinance score  152  and sensitivity measure may be product specific. That is, a different score may be provided for each product type. The different product types are provided in Table II. 
         [0000]    
       
         
               
               
               
               
               
             
           
               
                   
                 TABLE II 
               
               
                   
                   
               
               
                   
                 Market 
                 Jumbo 
                 Loan Term 
                 Product Type 
               
               
                   
                   
               
             
             
               
                   
                 Alt-A 
                 No 
                 360 
                 ARM 
               
               
                   
                 Alt-A 
                 No 
                 360 
                 Fixed 
               
               
                   
                 Alt-A 
                 No 
                 360 
                 Hybrid - Other 
               
               
                   
                 Alt-A 
                 Yes 
                 360 
                 Fixed 
               
               
                   
                 Prime 
                 No 
                 180 
                 Fixed 
               
               
                   
                 Prime 
                 No 
                 360 
                 ARM 
               
               
                   
                 Prime 
                 No 
                 360 
                 Fixed 
               
               
                   
                 Prime 
                 No 
                 360 
                 Hybrid 
               
               
                   
                 Prime 
                 No 
                 360 
                 Hybrid 10/1 
               
               
                   
                 Prime 
                 No 
                 360 
                 Hybrid 2/1 
               
               
                   
                 Prime 
                 No 
                 360 
                 Hybrid 3/1 
               
               
                   
                 Prime 
                 No 
                 360 
                 Hybrid 5/1 
               
               
                   
                 Prime 
                 No 
                 360 
                 Hybrid 7/1 
               
               
                   
                 Prime 
                 Yes 
                 180 
                 Fixed 
               
               
                   
                 Prime 
                 Yes 
                 360 
                 ARM 
               
               
                   
                 Prime 
                 Yes 
                 360 
                 Fixed 
               
               
                   
                 Prime 
                 Yes 
                 360 
                 Hybrid 
               
               
                   
                 Prime 
                 Yes 
                 360 
                 Hybrid 10/1 
               
               
                   
                 Prime 
                 Yes 
                 360 
                 Hybrid 2/1 
               
               
                   
                 Prime 
                 Yes 
                 360 
                 Hybrid 3/1 
               
               
                   
                 Prime 
                 Yes 
                 360 
                 Hybrid 5/1 
               
               
                   
                 Prime 
                 Yes 
                 360 
                 Hybrid 7/1 
               
               
                   
                 Subprime 
                 No 
                 360 
                 Hybrid 2/28 
               
               
                   
                 Subprime 
                 No 
                 360 
                 Hybrid 3/27 
               
               
                   
                 Subprime 
                 Yes 
                 360 
                 Fixed 
               
               
                   
                   
               
             
          
         
       
     
         [0028]    Since there are 22 product types and 3 different scores, a total of 66 unique scores may be calculated by the pretell scoring platform  145 . The user may select the market, the loan type, the loan term, and the product type by using a menu as shown in  FIG. 8 . 
         [0029]    The scoring system  100  includes a campaign rules module  160  that includes rules  162  that can be applied based on the mover score  150 , the payoff score  151 , the refinance score  152 , the national average mover score  153 , the regional average mover score  154 , the national average payoff score  155 , the regional average payoff score  156 , the national average refinance score  157 , and the regional average refinance score  158 . The rules may be created or selected by a marketing individual or team depending on the desired target group ( 325 ). 
         [0030]      FIG. 5  is a graphical user interface that displays rules  162  and allows the user to select the rules  162  to obtain a desired group of individuals to target according to an embodiment of the invention. The rules  162  may include a financial institution name, a demographic characteristic, a geographic region, an income range, a loan amount, a mover score, a payoff score, a refinance score, etc. For example, the user via the rules  162  may want to target Wells Fargo borrowers that have loans greater than $500,000 and a refinance score of greater than 700. 
         [0031]    The scoring system  100  calculates and displays the national average mover score  154 , the national average payoff score  156  and the national average refinance score  158 . Once the region is selected, the scoring system  100  calculates and displays the regional average mover score  154 , the regional average payoff score  156  and the regional average refinance score  158 . 
         [0032]    Referring back to  FIGS. 1 and 3 , the scoring system  100  may include a pretell scored and ranked customer groups module  165  that groups or ranks customers or borrowers based on the created or selected rules  162  ( 330 ). For example, the pretell scored and ranked customer groups module  165  may group the borrowers or customers with the greatest likelihood of moving, paying off or refinancing at the top of the list. The groups can be listed in a variety of different ways depending on the user&#39;s preferences. For example, the pretell scored and ranked customer groups module  165  can provide a profile (e.g., demographic, geographic or income profile) of the customers ( 335 ). The pretell scored and ranked customer groups module  165  can provide the results in the form of a pretell customer retention solution  170  ( 340 ). The pretell customer retention solution  170  can be a graph, chart, table, etc. showing the target group of customers. 
         [0033]      FIG. 6  is a table of the pretell customer retention solution  170  according to an embodiment of the invention. The table is a summary report that presents the results of the scoring process by sorting the scores into deciles. The scores (e.g., weighted average score and score) listed in the table can be the mover score, the payoff score or the refinance score. The score provides an accurate measure of the likelihood that the customer will move, payoff or refinance their home. The score also provides a historical perspective on the expected overall level of prepayment activity that is projected to occur over the next 6 months. The highest decile ( 10 ) includes customers that have a weighted average score of 579. The business should have aggressive marketing efforts towards these customers. The lowest decile ( 1 ) includes customers that have a weighted average score of  203 . The business should have no marketing efforts towards these customers. Depending on which score is listed, the business can determine the customers that are most likely going to move, payoff their loans or refinance their loans. 
         [0034]    The table also shows a minus 50 basis point score, a plus 50 basis point score, and a volatility score. The customers that have the higher volatility scores are more likely to move, payoff or refinance when rates increase or decrease. The customer acquisition solution allows the business to prioritize the customers based on the score (e.g., mover, payoff or refinance) and the volatility score. 
         [0035]      FIG. 7  is a table showing that the deciles shown in  FIG. 6  with the highest scores have the highest propensity to move, payoff or refinance their loans according to an embodiment of the invention. The percentage of payoff for decile  10  (21%) is much greater than the payoff percentage for decile  1  (2%). 
         [0036]    While certain exemplary embodiments have been described and shown in the accompanying drawings, it is to be understood that such embodiments are merely illustrative of and not restrictive on the broad invention, and that this invention not be limited to the specific constructions and arrangements shown and described, since various other changes, combinations, omissions, modifications and substitutions, in addition to those set forth in the above paragraphs, are possible. The method can be implemented in hardware, software, or a combination of hardware and software using a personal computer, server, or other processor based system. Those skilled in the art will appreciate that various adaptations and modifications of the just described preferred embodiment can be configured without departing from the scope and spirit of the invention. Therefore, it is to be understood that, within the scope of the appended claims, the invention may be practiced other than as specifically described herein.