"So there’s some other reason. If we want to take this message seriously, then that reason applies to other people also. The message referred to ‘others in the same situation.’ The question has to be, what does your mysterious informant mean by that? I would be inclined to take the most obvious thing about you: the fact that you’re a magician. Of course, it could be because you’re an elf, but then that’s less statistically discriminating. We’ll keep that as a back-up option. But it might be both: that you are an elven mage. Which greatly narrows the field. So, I’ll have to get to work looking at cases of elven mages kidnapped in, say, the last year. Then work further backward if I get too few positive cases."