"It’ll happen," Doob said. "The question is, how long does Mr. Spinny have to live? And what does that tell us?" He clicked a small remote in his hand and brought up a slide on the big screen. Heads turned toward it and he felt a mild sense of relief at not being stared at anymore by the president. The slide was a montage of a snowball rolling down a hill, a fuzzy bacterial culture growing in a petri dish, a mushroom cloud, and other seemingly unrelated phenomena. "What do these all have in common? They are exponential," he said. "The word gets tossed around a lot by people who use it to mean anything that’s getting big fast. But it has a specific mathematical meaning. It means any process where the more it happens, the more it happens. The population explosion. A nuclear chain reaction. A snowball rolling down a hill, whose speed of growth is pegged to how much it’s grown." He clicked through another slide showing plots of exponential curves on a graph, then to an image of the moon’s eight pieces. "When the moon had only one piece, the probability of a collision was zero," he said.