BARINGO COUNTY 2022 SHORT RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESMENT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Steering Group (CSG), January 2022 The 2022 short rains assessment was conducted by the technical members of the Baringo county steering group (CSG) and supported by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The assessment was carried out in all the main livelihood zones. The main objective of the assessment was to develop an objective, evidence base and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the short rains of 2022. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to carry out the situation analysis. The onset of the short rains season was normal in the first dekad of October and characterized by uneven spatial distribution and poor temporal distribution. The cessation was normal in the third dekad of December. Insecurity tension resulting from competition for pastures and water was reported in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones while endemic livestock diseases were reported across the county. Acreage put under rain fed agriculture and its projected yield were below the long-term average (LTA) while projected yield and acreage put under irrigated agriculture was above LTA for beans, green grams and maize but less for tomatoes and water melons. Household maize stocks were below LTA by 31 percent. Forage conditions and livestock body condition for cattle were poor in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones. Milk production, consumption and prices were above LTA across all livelihood zones. Unusual livestock migrations were observed in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones triggering insecurity tensions. Market operations were normal though some were interrupted by insecurity incidents during the season under review. Livestock prices were below LTA while cereal prices were above LTA. Terms of trade were very poor with the Pastoral zone being the most affected. Water access and availability was poor as shown by increasing trekking distances to watering points, reduced water volumes, increased waiting time and reduced water discharge from boreholes. Household water consumption per person per day was below LTA across all livelihood zones and the water cost was above LTA across the county. Water quality is deteriorating at watering points due to congestion. The average county food consumption (FCS) score was Borderline at 35.2 with the Pastoral zone having the highest proportions of households with borderline and poor FCS of 50 and 19.2 percent respectively. The Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones had the highest coping strategy index (CSI) at 25.2 and 17.5 respectively. Tiaty sub county had the lowest latrine coverage and highest open defecation in the county while 70 percent of households in the county wash their hands at four critical times a day. There was a marginal decline in school enrolment for all levels of learning in term three compared to term two. The overall IPC phase classification for the county is at phase three (Crisis) whereby Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones were in IPC phase three while the Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone was in IPC phase two (Borderline). The Irrigated cropping and the Mixed farming livelihood zones were in IPC phase one (NoneMinimal). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... ii 3.1.1 Crops production ............................................................................................................ 5 3.1.2 Cereal stocks ................................................................................................................... 7 3.1.3 Livestock production ...................................................................................................... 8 3.1.4 Impact on availability ................................................................................................... 14 3.2.1 Market operations ......................................................................................................... 14 3.2.2 Market prices ................................................................................................................ 14 3.2.3 Terms of trade ............................................................................................................... 15 3.2.4 Income sources ............................................................................................................. 16 3.2.5 Water access and availability ....................................................................................... 16 3.2.6 Food consumption ........................................................................................................ 19 3.2.7 Coping Strategy ............................................................................................................ 19 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns .................................................................................. 20 3.3.2 Immunization and vitamin A supplementation ............................................................ 21 3.3.3 Nutrition status and dietary diversity............................................................................ 22 3.3.4 Sanitation and hygiene.................................................................................................. 24 3.5.1 Access ........................................................................................................................... 26 3.5.2 School feeding program ................................................................................................ 27 3.5.3 Effects of the season on learning continuity ................................................................. 29 5.1.1 Phase classification ....................................................................................................... 33 5.1.2 Summary of findings .................................................................................................... 33 5.1.3 Sub County ranking ...................................................................................................... 33 5.2.1 Food interventions ........................................................................................................ 34 5.3.2 Nonfood interventions .................................................................................................. 35 5.3.1 Food interventions ........................................................................................................ 39 5.2.1 Nonfood interventions .................................................................................................. 40 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the north, Laikipia to the east, Nakuru and Kericho to the south, Uasin Gishu to the southwest, and Mixed Farming Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the west. The county Irrigated Cropping covers an approximate area of 11,015 square kilometers (Km2) with a population of 666,783 Agro Pastoral persons (2019 Housing and Marginal Mixed Population census, Kenya Farming National Bureau of Statistics). Figure 1: Population by livelihoods The county is divided into six (6) sub-Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are five main livelihood zones in the county which include Mixed farming, Pastoral, Agro-pastoral, Marginal mixed and Irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are livestock pests and diseases in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones 1.2 Objectives of the assessment The main objective of the 2022 Short Rains Food Security Assessment (SRA) was to conduct an evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of the 2022 short rains season in Baringo county, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically, the assessment aimed at ascertaining the quantity and quality of the 2022 short rains and assess the impact of the season on food security situation, obtain adequate and reliable information for projecting food security needs, assess the geographical spread of other hazards, and determine the impact of the shock on livelihoods, assess the impact on livelihoods including crop and livestock production, markets, water, nutritional status and socio-economic conditions. The assessment also aimed at taking stock of the available response activities addressing food insecurity and malnutrition and to establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programs that promote preparedness and build household resilience. It also assessed potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities such as food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution. 1.3 Methodology and approach The 2022 Short Rains Assessment exercise was conducted by a multi sectoral and multi-agency team comprising of the County Steering Group members who included technical experts from the Departments of agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition as well as development partners based at the county level. The assessment was conducted from 9th -27th January 2023. The process began with the administration of the sector checklists followed by the initial CSG meeting whose main agenda was to give the aims and objectives of the assessment. This was then followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical teams then proceeded to the field for a fact-finding mission upon sampling representative sites based on livelihood zones, with the aim of triangulating the information provided in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The process involved an in-depth analysis of primary data collected through Key Informant Interviews (KII), semi-structured community Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) comprising both gender, market surveys, and sectoral checklists. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports prepared. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) reference tools. The team later compiled and drafted county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership. 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 2.1 Rainfall performance The onset of the short rains season was normal as it was observed during the first dekad of October. In the low land areas that comprises mostly Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones, the amounts received were depressed, ranging from 51-75 and 76-90 percent of normal rains respectively. In the high land areas of Mixed farming livelihood zone, amounts received ranged from normal to slightly above normal (91-125 percent of normal). Rainfall distribution was extremely poor both in space and time. The peak of the season was observed during the first dekad of October and the second dekad of November. Cummulatively, the season had about three to five wet days, mostly in the highlands while spatial distribution was very poor as the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral areas hardly received any rains during the season under review. The cesation of Figure 2: Rainfall performance the season was observed in the third dekad of December which was normal. 2.2 Insecurity Insecurity incidents happening within the neighboring counties of Elgeyo Marakwet along the Kerio valley and Laikipia have been spilling over into Baringo, causing some tension. The affected areas are Tiaty West sub county and Arabal area in Baringo South Sub County. There have been some tension in Saimo Soi ward caused by migration of Pastoral communities in search of pasture and water. Local mechanisms such as peace meetings in Saimo soi and kerio valley and deployment of Kenya Police Reservist officers in Arabal have been put in place to forestall skirmishes among various communities that may arise due to competition for the scarce pastures and water resources. 2.3 Other shocks and hazards Shocks High food commodity prices Food prices continued to be very high during the season under review. Most of the commodities including maize, beans and other pulses had their prices increasing by over 90 percent of their short term average and consequently affecting terms of trade. High farm input prices Prices of farm inputs were very high compared to the previous seasons thus making them unaffordable to the majority of farmers, a factor that contributed to reduced production. Hazards Livestock diseases Sporadic cases of livestock diseases were observed across the livelihood zones and included lumpy skin disease, CCPP, foot and mouth, among others. Most of the cases were being reported in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone. 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability 3.1.1 Crops production The short rains in Baringo County play a crucial role in ensuring food and nutrition security, as they supplement the harvest from the long rains and help to recharge water sources for irrigation. However, for the past four seasons, the County has received below-average rainy seasons (both long and short seasons), which has impacted negatively on crop production. The short rains of 2022 were below the long-term average and this coupled with high temperatures affected recharge of water sources for irrigation and the acreage under crop production. Although onset of short rains was normal, the distribution over space and time was very poor. The lack of rainfall has also led to reduced water levels in surface water sources, particularly in rivers used for irrigation. Some rivers have dried up completely and water pans are at less than 15 percent capacity. Crop production is a significant contributor of income and food in the county as shown by table Table 1: Contribution of crops to food and income Livelihood Crop Income Food Agro-Pastoral Maize 10 90 Beans 15 85 Finger millet 40 60 Cowpeas 40 60 Mixed Maize 40 60 Beans 40 60 Finger millet 30 70 Irrigated Maize 80 20 Tomatoes 90 10 Water melons 90 10 Rain fed agriculture The County received below-normal rains during the short rains season which could not support the proper growth of the crops. Due to delayed harvesting of the crop that was planted during the long rains season, many famers did not have enough time to till their land hence resulting in reduced acreage for rain fed crops. The crops in the fields were also affected adversely by the depressed rainfall season, resulting in reduced crop yield as shown in table two. Table 2: Rain fed agriculture Crop Area planted Long-term average (5 2022 short rains Long term average during 2022 year) area planted season production production (5 year) Short rains during the short rains (90 kg bags) during the short rains season (Ha) season (Ha) Projected season (90 kg bags) Maize 112 306 1,520 8,049 Beans 1,462 3,043 12,795 37,275 Irish Potato 1,630 2,234 20,280 32,330 The main crops planted during the 2022 short rains were maize, beans and Irish potatoes. The area planted for maize during the season under review was 37 percent of the long-term average (LTA) and its expected yield is 19 percent of the LTA. Similarly, for beans, the area planted during the season was 48 percent of the LTA and its projected production was expected to be 35 percent of LTA. However, for Irish potato, the area planted during the season was 73 percent of LTA and the projected production is 63 percent of the LTA. In conclusion the farmers will not have any significant harvest if the current hot temperatures continue. Irrigated crop production The area planted for beans, green grams and maize was higher than LTA while the acreage put under tomatoes and water melons was less than the LTA during the season under review (Table 3). The projected production was expected to be less than LTA except for beans and this was caused by reduced river flows which serves as a source of water for irrigation. Table 3: Irrigated Agriculture Crop Area planted Long-term 2022 short rains Long-term average during the 2022 average (3 years) season production production (3 years) short rains area planted (90 kg bagsMT) during short rains season (ha) during short rains ProjectedActual season (90 kg bagsMT) season (ha) Beans 82 27 820 375 Tomatoes 437 470 11316 15280 Water Mellon 116 185 2264 2680 Green Grams 255 167 1822 1627 Maize 50 31 1500 1250 The area planted for beans and Maize during the 2022 short rains season is 304 percent and 161 percent more than the LTA respectively while their projected yield was expected to be 119 and 120 percent of the LTA respectively. For Tomatoes, the area planted during the season was 92.3 percent of the LTA while the projected yield is 74 percent of LTA if the irrigation water is sustained. For watermelon, the area planted during the season was 63 percent of the LTA and the production was estimated to be 85 percent of the LTA. For Green Grams, the area planted during the season was 153 percent of LTA while the projected production is 112 percent of LTA and this was caused by the fact that most of the farmers planted the crop as a cash crop for income. The early planted crop has been harvested while those planted late were affected by reduced water levels in the rivers. 3.1.2 Cereal stocks Table 4 below indicates the stocks of different commodities (maize, rice, sorghum, and green gram) held by different groups in Baringo County. The groups include farmers, traders, millers, food assistance, and the National Cereal and Produce Board (NCPB). The data also provides the current stocks and the stocks held in the long term average (LTA) for comparison. The variation in stocks held at each level was due to a combination of factors including changes in demand, supply, prices, and reduced production. Table 4: Cereals stocks Commodity Maize (Bags) Rice ( Kg ) Sorghum (Bags) Green gram (Bags) Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Farmers 428,677 628,340 0 0 2,294 2,518 385 350 Traders 86,151 73,879 23,420 20,000 490 396 150 260 Millers 29,436 13,602 0 0 10 6 0 0 Food 370 650 13,000 8,000 0 0 0 0 Assistance NCPB 0 0 2,115 150 0 0 0 0 Total 544,634 716,471 36,780 28,350 2,794 2,920 535 610 Households: The stocks of maize held by farmers are 428,677 bags, which is 31 percent lower than the LTA of 628,340 bags this stocks are a carry-over from the previous season. However, farmers do not have any stocks of rice as the crop was not planted in the irrigation scheme. Sorghum stocks were below LTA while green grams stocks were above LTA. The reason for the reduced stocks especially of maize was because of poor harvests of the long rains, High cost of farm inputs and also farmers selling the crops to traders and millers. The stocks with the households are skewed with Eldama Ravine having 64 percent of the total stocks held by households. Traders: The stocks of maize held by traders are 86,151 bags, which is 17 percent higher than the LTA of 73,879 bags. Traders also have 23,420 kgs of rice which is 17 percent higher than the LTA of 20,000 kgs, 490 bags of sorghum which is 23 percent higher than the LTA of 396 bags and 150 bags of green gram which is 42 percent lower than the LTA of 260 bags. The traders are holding more stocks of maize and rice due to anticipation of higher demand in the market and also to take advantage of high prices. Millers: The stocks of maize held by millers are 29,436 bags, which is 117 percent higher than the LTA of 13,602 bags. However, millers do not have any stocks of rice and green gram but negligible quantity of sorghum. The high stocks held by millers may be due to an increase in price for maize flour hence more households consuming sorghum flour. NCPB: The National Cereal and Produce Board (NCPB) does not have any stocks of maize, sorghum, and green gram but negligible amount of rice (2,115 Kgs). This could be due to a lack of surplus crops being sold to the NCPB and change of Government policy. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the next crop harvest but for now the available stocks may last for one month in the Mixed farming livelihood zone while in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Livelihood zones there are no stocks. In the Irrigated livelihood zones the stocks can last one and half months. 3.1.3 Livestock production Introduction The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, hived honeybees, poultry and camels. The government has put effort to promote rabbit farming. Lactating camels are known to provide milk even in dry periods and can form good protein source during the dry period. The camel can be good livelihood asset, if spread among pastoral households. The county is known to be long rains dependent for livestock production but the short rains are very important for complementing production of fodder and pastures (hay) for livestock as well as recharge of most water sources. Agricultural by-products, namely, maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum, millet straw and the legume by products are important as conserved feeds for future use. These by- products are important for their utilization during dry period and hence supplement strategic feed reserves in the ASAL wards in the county. The table below (Table 5) shows the significance of livestock production to food and income. Table 5: Contribution of livestock to food and income Livelihood zone Contribution Food Income Mixed farming 25 30 Irrigated cropping 35 15 Agro-pastoral 50 50 Pastoral 70 85 Pasture and browse conditions The present forage condition is fair in both Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones and fair to poor in both Agro-pastoral and Pastoral zones. The condition is attributed to below normal OND rains. Both quality and quantity of forage is below normal, attributed to under- performance of both long and short rains of 2022. The pastures are expected to last for two months in Mixed and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones and less than one month in Agro-pastoral zone while for Pastoral areas, there are no pastures currently (Table 6). The invasive plants observed were Opuntia ficus-indica, Dodonaea fiscosa, Prosopis juliflora, Acacia reficiens and Panthenium hysterophorus and the most affected areas were Tiaty East, Tiaty West and parts of Baringo South sub counties. Cactus is a very important plant and can be utilized by farmers as forage if prepared properly. The sector is advised to enhance capacity strengthening to the communities on maintenance and utilization of Prosopis species and cactus (Opuntia ficus-indica). The invasive species may have adverse effects to pasture and browse as they are smothering the growth of pasture species that are palatable to livestock. Presently the factors limiting forage access are persistent insecurity tensions around Saimo Soi, Bartabwa, Arabal and Kapedo and Kerio Valley areas. Table 6: Forage conditions Livelihoo Pasture Browse d Zone Condition Projected Factors Condition Projected Factors Duration to last limiting Duration to last limiting (Months) access (month) access Curre Norm Curre Norm Curre Norm Curre Norm nt al nt al nt al nt al Mixed Fair Good 2 3 No limit Good Good 2 3 No limit farming to fair Irrigated Fair Good 2 3 No limit Good Good 2 3 No limit cropping to fair Agro- Fair to Good 1 3 No limit Fair Good 1 3 No limit Pastoral poor Pastoral Poor Good 0 3 Insecurit Fair to Good 1 3 Insecurit y poor y tensions tensions Livestock feed conservation status The number of bales currently being held in the stores across the county is very low compared to their holding capacities and this was caused by the depressed season which could not support pasture growth (Table 7). The stocks that were carried over from the previous seasons were also depleted and currently the county depends on supplies from the neighboring counties such as Nakuru. The existing stocks are being held by the farmers and their current prices are above the normal prices due to the high demand for feed supplementation, a factor that is limiting their utilization as many farmers cant afford them. Currently there are no significant crop residues for feeding livestock as many farmers did not bother to attempt to plant due to unfavorable season. There are no commercial SMEs engaged in pasture and fodder, but there are institutions doing commercial seed production such as KVDA and RAE TRUST. Table 7: Livestock feeds Sub No. of Hay Storage No. of Bales Average Average Comments E.g. county Stores Capacity currently Weight price per percentage held by (Total being held per bale bale (Kshs.) farmers and other number of (in Kgs) Institutions bales) Baringo 20 7,500 580 12-15 350 100 held by farmers South Baringo 10 20,000 300 12-15 350 100 held by farmers ERavine 30 605,000 100,000 15 350 100 held by farmers Tiaty NR NR NR NR NR Free grazing area Baringo 25 280,000 3,400 12-15 350 100 held by farmers Mogotio 8 127,000 10,000 12-15 200-350 100 held by farmers Livestock body condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Goat Camel Zone Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed BCS4- BCS5 BCS 4- BCS5 BCS4 BCS5 NA NA farming BCS3 BCS3 Irrigated BCS3 BCS5 BCS3 BCS4 BCS4- BCS5 cropping BCS3 Agro- BCS2 BCS4 BCS3 BCS4 BCS4 BCS5 BCS5 BCS5 Pastoral BCS 2 BCS4 BCS2 BCS4 BCS3- BCS5 BCS5 BCS5 (NB: BCS 1 Very Poor-Very thin, BCS 2Poor, BCS 3Fair, BCS 4 Good, BCS 5 Very Good) The deterioration in livestock body condition was brought about by worsening of quality of forage and increase of trekking distances to watering points following poor performance of both the long and short rain seasons of 2022. Furthermore, the county was unable to realize any crop residues that would have complemented livestock feeding. The deterioration in livestock body condition is expected to continue for the next three months as forage resources get depleted. Tropical livestock unit (TLU) Livelihood zone Poor income Medium income households households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming 2.32 3 5.5 5.5 Irrigated cropping 2.78 3.5 6.7 6.5 Agro-pastoral 3.80 5 7.9 7 Pastoral 5.50 6 9.62 7 Average 3.6 4.5 7.43 9 Compared to the last assessment, TLUs of poor income households declined from 4.0 to 3.6 while medium income households had stable TLUs. However, the TLUs for both categories were above LTA. The decline in TLUs was attributed by the low livestock birth rates due to underperformance of rains. Milk production and consumption Table 8: Milk production, consumption and price Livelihood Milk Production Milk consumption (Litres) Prices (Ksh)Litre zone (Litres)Household per Household Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Mixed 3 8 2 5 75 50 Irrigated 3 8 2 5 75 50 Agro- 1 4 1 3 90 60 Pastoral 0.5-1 3 0.5 6 90 60 Milk production and consumption declined across the livelihood zones compared to the last assessment and was below LTA (Table 8). The decrease was attributed to deteriorating livestock body condition caused by poor forage quality and quantity as well as increasing distances to watering points. The prevailing high temperatures also affected feed conversion efficient of lactating cows. Milk prices remained above LTA with the highest prices being observed in Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral livelihood zones at Ksh 90 per litre. The high prices were as a result of the low supply of milk occasioned by poor milk production. Livestock migration The migration patterns were normal during the review period. The migrations were due to depletion of water sources and insecurity tensions. Livestock animals are being driven from Laikipia nature conservancy towards Lake Baringo and Arabal. Other animals were moving from Tiaty areas towards Saimo Soi ward in Baringo North Sub County. As a result of these migrations, insecurity tensions were reported in Loruk, Kalabata and Kinyach sub-locations. The migrations were triggered by search of pastures by Pastoral communities which are currently in poor condition or depleted while other migrations were triggered by insecurity. Local conflict resolution mechanisms are being deployed by the relevant authorities in order to prevent escalations. Migratory routes included Barketiew-Kerio Valley, Barwessa. Sibilo, Lake Baringo, Solai- Laikipia-Kiptoim-Esageri-Koibatek forest, Mukutani-Rugus and along Lake Baringo shores, Sandai-Chebinyiny-Upper Mochongoi, Loboi-Emsos; Sandai-Kapkuikui, Loboi to Wildlife conservancies, Churo-Laikipia ranches; Churo-Tangulbei-Lake Baringo area, KolloaTirioko- West Pokot-UgandaTurkanaLupeitonLokorin, Silale-Malaso-Turkana border, Kasarani and Tangulbei-Laikipia MochongoiBeyong Malaso(MoruakirinMarti) Projected migration: Outward migration towards the Kerio valley, West Pokot, and Turkana and around Lake Baringo is expected to pick up in the next one month. Internal migrations are also expected to increase in intensity: Areas to watch- Saimo Soi, Lake Baringo areas, Arabal. Livestock diseases and mortalities There were no notifiable livestock disease incidences reported in the sub-county though there were normal incidents as shown in Table 9. The other disease incidences were within normal seasonal ranges and planning for vaccinations were on-going against PPR and Rabies funded by FAO and Baringo County Government. The mortality rates remained normal in all livelihood zones at two percent and there was no reported drought related mortalities in the county. Table 9: Livestock diseases Sub- Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock Measures taken county lost (Vaccinations) Baringo CCPP Endemic Goats vaccinations Central LSD Salawa, Kaptara Cattle Vaccinations FMD Kapkelelwa Cattle No action Red Water Lowlands Cattle Tiaty CCPP All wards Goats Not Planned vaccinations by reported communities PPR, LSD Ribkwo, Churo All No report Not vaccinated Eldama FMD Koibatek Cattle Suspected No vaccination reported Ravine Baringo Goat and sheep Losampurpur Goats and 3 deaths No vaccination done South pox sheep CCPP Nyimbei Goats 50 No vaccination done Heart water Bekibon Goats 20 No vaccination done FMD Marigat, Kimoriot cattle No deaths No vaccination done Mange Kapkuikui Goats No deaths No vaccination done LSD Kapkuikui Goat No deaths No vaccination done Baringo CCPP County-wise Goats No deaths 500 vaccinated North (Endemic) PPR Barwessa, Shoats 30 Plans initiated for vaccinations Rabies All wards dogs No deaths 100 vaccinated ECF Kabartonjo, Cattle No deaths 150 vaccinated Kipsaraman Helminths Saimo soi Cattle, sheep, No deaths 8,200 livestock dewormed goats Mogotio FMD Mogotio Cattle No No vaccinations reported Water for livestock Table 10: Livestock water Livelihood Sources Return average Expected duration to zone distances (Km) last Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Rivers, springs, Streams, Rivers, 1-3 1-1.5 1 month Throughout Farming piped water, springs, piped boreholes, water, boreholes, Irrigated Rivers, shallow Rivers, shallow 1-3 1-1.5 1 month Throughout cropping wells and springs, wells and springs. bore holes Agro-pastoral Water pans, Streams, water 7-13 4-7 3 weeks 3 months Boreholes, pans, Boreholes traditional river wells Pastoral Bore-holes, water Water-pans, Bore- 7-13 4-7 2 weeks 3 months pans, traditional holes, rivers river wells The average return distances for livestock from watering points to grazing fields increased significantly across all livelihoods and was above the LTA. The Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest trekking distance of 7-15 km while Irrigated livelihood zone recorded the least trekking distances. The increase in distances was caused by drying up of water pans, and high temperatures that are causing rapid evaporation. Variations in water sources and trekking distance were due to low recharge levels and drying up of most water sources. The water pans recharge levels were at 0-30, which was not normal. Watering frequency Table 11: Watering frequency Livelihood zone Cattle Camels Goats Sheep Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming 7 7 NA NA 7 7 7 7 Irrigated cropping 7 7 NA NA 7 7 7 7 Agro-pastoral 4 7 4 7 4 7 4 7 Pastoral 4 7 4 7 4 7 4 7 Watering frequency declined in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral zones due to the continued water shortages being experienced in the area following poor performance of the short rains season (Table 11). 3.1.4 Impact on availability The short rains season is normally relied on for complementing food availability in the county through recharge of rivers for irrigation water, water for livestock and humans, enhancing pasture and browse growth as well as supporting limited rain fed crops. The season under review performed dismally, affecting both livestock and crop productivity hence leading to further decline in availability of food stocks and milk. Households are there experiencing shortages in food availability, forcing them to shift to purchasing of food from the local markets at very high prices. 3.2 Access 3.2.1 Market operations Main livestock and food markets include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach, Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya, Marigat, Kabel, Majimoto, Emining, Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi. Nginyang, kolowa, Kinyach, and Kalabata Markets were disrupted by insecurity but not closed. The markets are operational but the prices remained low for the livestock and high for food items. The markets were less vibrant compared to December 2022 whereby there were less animals and market players which was attributed to deteriorating livestock body condition and low demand for livestock. Most of the cereals and vegetables on sale in Mixed and Marginal zones were being sourced from within (Ravine, Baringo Central) with some coming from outside the county. In Agro Pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood zones between 85-95 percent are dependent on markets. 3.2.2 Market prices Maize prices g k 80 c ir 40 Figure 3. Maize Prices The average price of a kilogram of maize was retailing at Ksh. 90, an increase of three percent in comparison to the previous month whereby a kilogram was retailing at Ksh 87kg (Figure 3). The prices were above the short-term average at a similar time of the year by 94 percent. The high maize prices were attributed to reduced maize supplies in the local markets particularly in the Pastoral areas that depend on the neighbouring counties of West Pokot and Elgeyo Marakwet for supplies. The ongoing security operations coupled by increased cost of transportation driven by high fuel prices has also affected the market prices across livelihood zones. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.90 per kg while Irrigated Cropping livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.70 per kg. Goat prices There was a drop of seven percent in the average price of a goat which was at Ksh 2,446 per head, in relation to the previous month at Ksh. 2,635 (Figure 4). The lowest price was observed in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh 2,200 while Pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones had Ksh 2,490 and Ksh 3,000 respectively. The decrease in market prices was influenced by the worsening drought conditions in the county that is affecting the livestock body condition. 3.2.3 Terms of trade The terms of trade were at 27, implying that a sale of one goat was fetching 27kg of maize which was a decrease of 21 percent in relation to the previous month of December (Figure 5) and this could be attributed to improved livestock prices during the month under review. However, the current terms of trade were below the long-term average by 55 percent. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade at 36 while Agro Pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 24. The continued deterioration of livestock body condition is likely to impact negatively on livestock prices, a factor that will further worsen terms of trade and therefore eroding the purchasing power Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral households. 3.2.4 Income sources Table 12: Income sources Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral LZ Agro-pastoral Irrigated LZ Mixed Farming LZ LZ Livestock Production 88 50 5 23 Food Crop Production - 4 5 5 Cash crop production -- - 59 30 Small Business 1 4 5 7 Casual Waged Labour 1 15 10 20 Formal Waged Labour 1 5 4 5 Poultry Production 2 5 3 1 Fishing - 10 4 - The main sources of cash income are varied across the livelihood zones key among them being livestock production, cash crop production, and casual waged labour among others as illustrated in Table 12. However, income earned from sale of livestock declined this season due to depressed livestock market prices following the deterioration of livestock body condition. In the Irrigated cropping zone, sales from tomato crops declined following a market glut. 3.2.5 Water access and availability The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include; Traditional River wells, Boreholes, lakes and water pans, (Figure 8). Generally, in the Mixed farming and Irrigated farming zones communities have more access to water than in Pastoral livelihood zone. By January, the recharge level of most water pans was 0-30 percent of their normal capacity in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones compared to 70-80 percent normally. However, some area such as Tirioko ward, some pans never recharged due to poor distribution of the rains. The available water is likely to last less than a month as compared to 2-3 months normally. In the Mixed farming and Irrigated livelihood zones the recharge was average at 60-80 percent of normal as compared to 100 percent typically and the water is expected to last 1-2 months. In the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones 80 of the water pans have dried up e.g Chepkalacha, kokwototo, chemoril among others, the remaining have 20-30 percent of the normal capacity such as Tangulbei, Loyeya, Tlingwo, Pombo, Orus etc. The general status of water levels in springs, rivers, traditional river wells in all livelihood zones are below the normal seasonal levels and expected to continue reducing due to high temperatures, high level of utilization and siltation. The level of water in the main rivers are as follows; River Perkerra 20 -340 percent, River kerio 20-30 percent and River Molo River 15 20 percent. Currently, 70 percent of the boreholes are operational in across all livelihood zones (Table 13); however, some few boreholes are not operational due to normal electro-mechanical breakdowns for example belatiat bh, radat ws bebogoi bh,KirimBH, Sambaka,Tinomoi,TebeiKatikamuma,Kamakonge,Kapindasum,Bartalo,nasrot,seretion,chesawac h, kresee,ngoron, Loiwat, Akwichatis, Toplen, Sibilo across the county . Table 13:Status of water sources Ward Water No. of No. of Projected Normal of full Locality of Non- Livelihoo Source Norm Current Duration Duration Capacity operational Water d zone (Three al Operatio (Operationa that Recharged by Sources (3) Opera nal l Sources) water last the Rains major tional Sources in months sources Pastoral Bore 65 26 Over 6 Over 6 stable belatiat bh, radat ws Holes Months months bebogoi , bh, Kirim BH, Sambaka Tinomoi, Tebei, Katikamuma,Kamakon ge, Kapindasum, Bartalo,nasrot,seretion, chesawach,kreze,ngoro n,loiwat,akwichatis,topl en,sibilo Water 50 36 2weeks-1 2 3 10-15 pans month Months Rivers 12 10 2weeks-1 3-4 10-20 month Months Agro Bore 4 Over 6 Over 6 stable Kirim BH, Sambaka pastoral Holes Months months Tinomoi, Tebei, , Water 15 11 1-2 Months 3 4 15-20 Pans Months Rivers 16 13 1-2 Months 1- 10 - 20 2Months Mixed Bore 10 6 Over 6 Over 6 stable Farming Holes Months months Springs 15 15 Over 6 Over 6 stable Months Months Rivers 2 2 1-2Months 2-3 30 - 40 Months Irrigated Rivers 4 2 1 -2 Months 2-3 20 -30 weseges, river,Endao Cropping months river and parts of molo river Shallo 6 3 Over 6 Over 6 Reducing w Wells months months Discharge borehol 6 6 Over 6 es months Distance to Water Sources The current return trekking distances to domestic water sources are above the normal at 4-7 km in Pastoral and 3-7 km in Agropastoral livelihood zones, as compared to the normal of 2 4 kms. The distances were at 1-4 Km in Mixed farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones against the normal distances 0.5 -2Km this was due to drying up of most of the open water sources as result of poor rainfall performance. In pastoral areas of Toplen and Nasorot in Silale; Seretion and Chepanda in Ribkwo; Chesetim, Embositita and Ngoron in Tirioko and Loiwat and Chepturu in Kolowa the households are covering the highest distances of 7-10Km. this is due to non-functioning of the available boreholes. Waiting at the Time Source The current waiting time at the water source in the Pastoral and Agro- pastoral livelihood zones was 20 120 minutes and 20-60 minutes as compared to the normal of 10-20 and 10-15minutes respectively. The waiting time at the source in Mixed farming livelihood zone was between 10-30 minutes which is above the normal of 5-10 minutes. The situation is attributed to congestion, low discharge from boreholes and low water volumes at surface sources. The situation is anticipated to worsen due to the ongoing drought spell. Cost of Water and Consumption The cost of water at the source is generally high across all livelihood zones while water from open water sources is free (Table 14). Water price at source in all livelihood zones was Ksh.5-10 against the usual Ksh 3-5. However, the price of water by vendors depends on the distances covered; on average it is at Ksh 20-100 per 20 litres jerrican. In pastoral areas of Toplen and Nasorot in Silale; Seretion and Chepanda in Ribkwo; Chesetim, Embositita and Ngoron in Tirioko and Loiwat and Chepturu in Kolowa 60-70 percent are relying on water vendors. The cost per 20 litre jerrican is between Ksh. 50-100 from the normal of Ksh. 20 due to long distances to water sources and increased fuel prices. Water consumption per person per day is below normal at 15 20 litres per person per day in Mixed farming and Irrigated farming livelihood zone ,10-15 and 5-10 litres per person per day in Agro- pastoral and Pastoral zone respectively compared to normal of 20-25 and 15-20 litres per person per day. This was attributed to scarcity water across all livelihood zones. Table 14: Water distance, cost and consumption Ward Return Distance to Cost of Water at Waiting Time at Average Water livelihood zone Water for Source (Ksh. Per Water Source Consumption Domestic Use 20litres) (Minutes) (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Pastoral 3 - 4 4 7 3 - 5 5-10 10-20 20-60 15-20 5- Agro Pastoral 2 4 3- 7 3 - 5 5-10 10-15 20-45 15-20 10-15 Mixed 0.5 2 1- 4 3 5 5-10 1-2 10-30 20 - 25 15-20 Irrigated 0.5 - 2 1-3 3 - 5 5 3 - 5 10-30 20 - 25 15 - 20 Cropping There was unusual high concentration at the following water points in the county; Kanguria ,kwichatis Wells,NaudoBH ,Chemeri BH,Tangulbei BH, Muiya, Noiywet BH,Nguberet BH,Kiptoim BH,Koitebes WS,Lelen BH,Kamar BH and Magoi, Kisanana BH,Olkokwe,Kamasai and Oldebes BH, Silonga BH, Chemorongion BH and Sirata BH, Ngoswonin and telan 3.2.6 Food consumption Food Consumption Score ts ts p ts ts p ts ts p ts ts p a a o a a o a a o a a o P P r P P r P P r P P r g e g e g e g e A t A t A t A t a a a a g g g g ir ir ir ir r r r r I I I I Acceptable Borderline Poor Figure 4: Food consumption score The proportion of sampled households that did not have acceptable food consumption score (FCS) has been rising steadily during the period under review for the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones (Figure 6). In October, the proportion of households without acceptable FCS in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones was 50 and 30 percent respectively which rose to 69 and 20 percent respectively by January. About 19 percent of the households in the Pastoral zone have poor FCS by January and are likely to rise up due to the prevailing food consumption gaps. 3.2.7 Coping Strategy Coping strategy index Irrigated Agro pastoral Pastoral Households were adopting food consumption based coping strategies mostly in Pastoral and Agro Pastoral zones which included skipping of meals, reduced meal sizes among others. In the Pastoral zone, the CSI has marginally increased from 16 in October to 17 by January, an indication that households are applying more coping strategies in response to the deteriorating food security situation at the household level. Agro Pastoral livelihood zone has been employing the highest coping strategies over the season under review. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns Morbidity in under five children Under five Morbidity 2018 - 2022 Figure 5: Under 5 morbidity Generally Upper Respiratory Tract infection (URTI) continue to be the leading cause of morbidity in Baringo county (Figure 8). The number of children seen with upper respiratory tract infection in 2021 was higher compared to the other years same period. This year 2022 recorded a slightly lower morbidity compared to 2021 among under five population. Morbidity for General Population General population morbidity 2018-2 022 Figure 6: Morbidity in general population Morbidity in the general population showed a higher caseload in but the same trend as in the children under the age of five years (Figure 9). The higher number of cases of upper respiratory infection could be attributed to low immunity due to deteriorating nutrition situation 3.3.2 Immunization and vitamin A supplementation Immunization Imunization Coverge Measles Rubella 1 OPV 3 Opv 1 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 2021 2022 Figure 7: Immunization coverage Routine data from DHIS indicate that the proportion of children who were fully immunized in 2022 was above the national target of 80 percent (Figure 10). As compared to Oct- December 2021 same period, all antigens were above except OPV 3 which was below coverage in the same period 2021 and 2022, this was attributed to support of more outreaches in 2022. Vitamin A supplentation 2021 -2022 for children aged 6-59 months for July Dec 2022 80.7 was at 80.7 percent, which 80.0 was almost at per with the 75.0 73.3 national of 80 percent (Figure 11). When compared to the same 65.0 period in 2021 against the national target (73.3), the coverage was lower than 2022 2021 the nation target 12 to 59 6 to 59 Figure 8: Vitamin A coverage 3.3.3 Nutrition status and dietary diversity OUT-PATIENT FEEDING OTP) PROGRAM BARINGO COUNTY O 500 LTM (5-yr average) YEARS 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 Figure 9: OTP SUPPLEMENTARY FEEDING (SFP) PROGRAM BARINGO COUNTY LTM (5-yr average) S M 700 Years A R 600 2022 R 2021 P 400 P F 300 2020 Figure 10: SFP Figure 12 and 13 shows that children attending OTP and SFP seems to increase in the year 2022, as compared to the same period 2021. This increase could be attributed to increasing food consumption gaps at the household level. Also it can be noted that both SFP and OTP have steadily increased in the months October and November due to increase in the number of outreaches. UNDERWIGHT TRENS 2028-2022 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 LTA (5-yr average) Figure 11: Underweight The proportion of children (6-59 months) who are underweight are above the long term average (Figure 14), this could be attributed to the decline in nutrition status due to the decrease availability of milk at household level and increase of food prices such as milk and other commonly bought foodstuff. This has led to household reducing the number of meals per day as a form of coping strategy. 3.3.4 Sanitation and hygiene Sanitation and hygiene Over 70 percent of the Hand Washing household 2021 2022 51.6 48.8 at four 38.8 critical time and out of 22.6 these, 22 percent wash hands with soap and Handwashing with water Hand washing with soap water while Figure 12: Hand washing practices 51.6 percent with water only. Figure 15 shows an improvement in hand washing practices in 2022 compared with 2021; this could be attributed to intervention put in place during COVID 19 intervention period. Latrine coverage Table 15: Latrine coverage Sub County Latrine coverage Livelihood zone July Dec 2022 July to December 2021 Open defecation Coverage Coverage (bushes) Koibatek 85 75 15 Baringo Central 90 46 10 Marigat 50 46 44 Mogotio 5 0 44 44 Baringo North 78 42 36 Tiaty West 3.14 3.14 91.3 Tiaty East 3.14 3.14 91.43 Tiaty sub counties has the lowest latrine coverage and the highest open defecation in the County (Table 15) and this was mainly attributed to the cultural practices and nomadic lifestyle of the community. This has a negative impact on nutritional status and high cases of water related diseases Nutrition status by MUAC The proportion of children (6-59 months) who were at risk of malnutrition according to the Mid upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) was above the long-term average; this follow the same trend as for the underweight (Figure 15) and this could also be attributed to the deteriorating food security situation that include poor availability of milk and decreased number of meals per day as noted during the transect drive 5 15 r 10 3.4 Food security trends Indicator Short rains assessment, Long rains assessment, July, 2022 January, 2023 of maize stocks held 29 by households Livestock body Agro- Poor Agro-pastoral Fair-Good condition (Cattle) pastoral Irrigated Fair Irrigated cropping Fair-Good Mixed Good-Fair Mixed Farming Fair-Good Pastoral-all Poor Pastoral-all species Poor-Fair Water consumption Agro- 10-15 Agro-pastoral 10-15 (litres per person per day pastoral Irrigated 15-20 Irrigated cropping 15-20 Mixed 15-20 Mixed Farming 15-20 Pastoral-all 5-10 Pastoral-all species 5-10 Price of maize (per kg) 90 86 Price of goat 2,446 2,506 Distance to grazing Agro- 7-13 Agro-pastoral 6-10 Irrigated 1-3 Irrigated cropping 1-2 Mixed 1-3 Mixed Farming 1-2 Pastoral-all 7-13 Pastoral-all species 4-10 Terms of trade 27 29 Coping strategy index County-17 County-16 Agro-Pastoral-25.2 Agro-Pastoral-23 Pastoral-17.8 Pastoral-17 Irrigated Cropping-3.4 Irrigated Cropping-4 Food consumption Acceptable 49 Acceptable 52 score Borderline 38 Borderline 44 Poor 13 Poor 4 3.5 Education 3.5.1 Access Enrolment Table 16: Enrolment Term II 2022 Term III 2022 Enrollment Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total ECD 25,161 25,801 50,962 25,084 25,267 50,351 Primary 75,104 69,963 145,067 74,954 69,710 144,664 Secondary 25,798 25,513 51,311 25,773 25,481 51,254 The slight drop in enrollment in third term for ECD and primary schools is attributed to some factors like; delay in school feeding program supported by the county government, ministry of education and pupils transferring to other schools (Table 16). For secondary schools the change was attributed basically to transfers to other schools Cases of Drop outnon-attendance. Table 17: Dropout rate Dropoutsnon- Term III, 2022) Reasons for Boys Reasons for Girls attendants Dropoutsnon-attendance Dropoutsnon-attendance in Total in Term III Term III ECD 69 92 161 - nomadism - lack of food, - distant schools - insecurity Primary 181 114 295 - psychological trauma - teenage pregnancy teenage - insecurity violence - Nomadism, - chronic illness Secondary 23 21 44 - Lack of school fees - Lack of fees - Indulgence into Boda - Insecurity boda business -teenage pregnancies -Insecurity - early marriages - Child labour - insecurity violence - Truancy Several cases of school dropout were reported during the period under review and most of the students could not be traced. Several reasons behind the dropout are shown in Table 17. 3.5.2 School feeding program Table 18: School feeding program of ISMP Cash CSSMP County Other Total Total Total schools with Transfer ECD types of number No. of number school SMP school of schools of meals feeding beneficiar withou beneficiar program (Please ies of t any ies NOT specify.) School school on school Meals feeding meals Programs progra program in the mme in the county county Level No Bo Gir Bo Gi Bo Gi Bo Gi Bo Gi Bo Gir Bo Gir of ys ls ys rls ys rls ys rls ys rls ys ls ys ls ECD nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil 558 250 25,2 84 67 Prima 55 507 469 3,2 3,4 na na na na na na 509 471 188 209 193 ry 0 67 50 00 00 52 82 87 60 Secon nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil nil Nil nil nil nil Subtot 55 507 469 32 34 nil nil 509 471 774 460 446 al 0 67 50 00 00 52 82 71 27 Grand 55 97717 6,600 nil 98134 774 90,698 total 0 (boys girls) There were several types of school feeding programs but the main one was intergrated schools meals program targeting 517 schools in five sub counties, but Ravine and Baringo Central sub counties are not benefitting (Table 18). School Feeding Programs available for primary schools and Enduring the season (Term III, 2022) Table 19: School feeding program in term 3 Type of SFP Available Number Number of Learners Effect of Not of affected availabilitynon- availableInadequate Schools Boys Girls Total availability of food on affected learning continuity during the term. County ECD SMP Not available 558 25084 25,267 50,351 No school meals program for ECD Cash Transfer to available 33 3,200 3,400 6,600 Delay in disbursement schools and increase in prices In-kind School Meals Yes, but delayed 517 50767 46950 97,717 Transportation of food Programme items from SCDE stores to each School -delayed disbursement -In adequate supply CommunityParents Not available NA NA NA NA NA Supported SMP Expanded School Not available NA NA NA NA NA Meals Programme PartnersWell-wisher yes 22 2,750 2,904 5,654 Not reliable no supported SMP continuity in supply Table 19 highlights the type of feeding program available in schools during term three and the type and number of schools benefitting from it. School feeding programs were to some extent hampered by logistical challenges such as transport. Water availability in schools during the season Main sources of water in schools where; borehole, river, water pumps, bowsers, taps, water pans and harvested rain water. Table 20 shows the number of schools with access to safe and clean water and schools with functional rain water harvesting infrastructure Table 20: School water availability of schools that had NO of schools that had of schools that had access access to safe water functional rain water- to safe water (functional (functional source within harvesting infrastructure source within 100m radius) 100m radius) (gutters, tanks and taps) ECD Primary Secondary ECD Primary Secondary ECD Primary Secondary 288 310 87 269 350 33 359 327 109 3.5.3 Effects of the season on learning continuity Effect of the season on school infrastructure There was no closure of schools due to the effects of the short rains, no schools were closed temporarily, there were no reported infrastructure destroyed during the season and no schools are currently hosting IDPs Effect of the season on school health and Nutrition during the season. Table 21: Season effect on health and nutrition School category Health issues which affected children during the Did the mentioned issues affect season learning continuity How ECD Common colds, Common colds, reduced enrolment Primary Common colds Common colds Learners health improved. Secondary Common ailments Common ailments Improved health for learners Common colds were the most common during the season under review as shown in Table 21. Health and nutrition interventions Children are being dewormed and given multivitamin A at schools organized by Ministry of Health. There is also enriched school meals with vegetables and fruits. Sanitation and hygiene conditions in schools Table 22:WASH facilities in schools of schools with inadequate functional latrine (i.e. of schools with inadequate or no hand- Pupil toilet Ratio- PtOR of above 1:60) washing facilities ECD Primary Secondary ECD Primary Secondary 332 260 26 376 299 27 A number of schools did not have adequate WASH facilities as shown in Table 22 and their net effect was as follows, spread of mild illness, students could easily contact diseases, absenteeism, learners take a lot of time queuing in washrooms and ow self-esteem. Girls received sanitary kits during the season provided by the National government. Absenteeism, poor performance and low self-esteem are the effects faced by girls due to lack of sanitary kits in some other parts of the country. There were cases of child labour which were prevalent particular in vulnerable groups, there were occasional cases of sexual exploitation and gender-based violence. 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis assumptions The long rains season of March to May 2023 will be near normal as per the historical trend and the PSP process Market prices will continue to be abnormal whereby cereal prices will be extremely above LTA while livestock prices will continue to depreciate. Forage conditions will continue to deteriorate further due to moisture stress especially in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral zones Unusual livestock migrations are expected to pick up in the next two months Livestock body condition for cattle will worsen in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral areas, and some mortalities are likely to be reported in the next two months Water access and availability will worsen, with most pans in the Pastoral areas drying up. Household stocks will remain below normal for the next six months due to crop failures witnessed in the county Resource based conflicts are likely to be observed within the known hot spots Market operations are likely to be disrupted by insecurity incidents 4.2 Food security outlook for the next six month February-March-April Most households will continue to rely on markets for food stocks as they exhaust the existing stocks following consecutive crop failures. No significant harvest particularly for maize is expected hence most households will resort to other alternative sources of food through purchases, relief food, gifts among others. The conditions of range land resources including pastures and browse will worsen significantly due to moisture stress, resulting in reduced livestock feed. This will lead to further deterioration of livestock body condition particularly in the Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral areas. Consequently, livestock productivity will drop including milk production and live carcass weight. Household herd size are expected to decline slightly as limited livestock mortality will be observed in some pockets of the county (Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones). Market operations are expected to remain near normal though a few will be interrupted but insecurity challenges resulting from resource-based conflict. Food prices particularly for cereals will remain above normal while livestock prices will remain below long term average, and this will lead to worsening of terms of trade hence eroding the purchasing power of Pastoral and Agro- Pastoral households. Water access and availability will continue to worsen as most of the surface- based water sources in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral zones will dry up, leading to an increase in trekking distances and waiting time at water source. Water consumption at the household level will continue to decline across all livelihood zones while cost of water will go up for vendors as they will have to cover more distances in fetching water. Water quality will continue to deteriorate due to congestion of both humans and livestock at the water sources, a factor that may contribute to increase of water borne diseases. Food consumption gaps will continue to be observed more so in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral areas, leading to more households drifting to borderline and poor food consumption score bands. Households will be adopting crisis coping strategies to cope with food consumption gaps such as skipping of meals, reduction of meal sizes, borrowing among others. Malnutrition cases will spike up in the next two months due to the reduced quantity and quality of food being consumed at the household level. May-June-July The long rains of MAM are expected to bring some relief in terms of water access and availability and forage conditions. Trekking distances to watering points for both human and livestock consumption are expected to decline, hence saving time for household members which will applied to other productive economic activities. The rains will trigger pasture regeneration hence improve forage availability by July hence initiating recovery of livestock body condition. However, milk production will still be below normal as the body condition will not have fully recovered, hence milk consumption gaps will still be experienced at the household level. Household stocks will have improved marginally but still below LTA by July following an improvement in crop production as farmers will have taken advantage of the MAM rains to plant. Market operations will remain normal and stable. Cereal prices will be expected to be in a declining trend as some households will have started limited harvesting of the MAM crop. Livestock prices are expected to be on an improving trend due to the expected improvement of livestock body condition as well as holding back of animals by farmers for the purpose of fattening and restocking. Terms of trade are expected to start improving by July thus enhancing the purchasing power of the Pastoral households. Household water consumption is expected to be normal following an increase in water availability at water sources while water quality will be better as a result of reduced water contamination due to congestion at watering points. Cost of water will be normal. An improvement in food consumption is expected following improved milk availability and household stocks. Households will adopt less severe coping strategies as households are expected to have improved their food security situation. However, malnutrition status will not have changed much although positive change is expected later in the course of the year. 5.0 CONCLUSSIONS AND RECCOMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusions 5.1.1 Phase classification The overall county IPC phase is in phase three (Crisis). Both Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones are in IPC phase three (Crisis) while the Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone is in phase two (Borderline). The Mixed farming and the Irrigated cropping livelihood zones are in phase one (NoneMinimal). 5.1.2 Summary of findings Even though the county had acceptable food consumption score at 49 percent, the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones had the highest proportions of households not having acceptable food consumption at 60 and 38 percent respectively by December 2022. The Pastoral zone had 44 and 16 percent of the sampled households having borderline and poor FCS. In terms of consumption based coping strategies, (rCSI). About 50 percent of the households were applying stressed coping strategies while the other 50 percent were none coping. On livelihood coping, about 5, 22, 26 and 47 percent of the sampled households in December had emergency, stressed, crisis and no coping strategies. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition was 18 percent by December which was above LTA by 65 percent. 5.1.3 Sub County ranking Sub County Rank (Worst Main food security threatContributing factors to best) Tiaty (East and West) 1 Poor rain Water shortage Insecurity Livestock migration Poor pastures High cereal prices Invasive species Baringo North 2 Poor rain Total crop failure Insecurity Malnutrition Poor pastures Livestock in migration Mogotio 3 Poor rains Livestock in migration Crop failure Water availability and Poor pastures access is poor Worsening livestock High food prices body condition Resource based conflict (water) Baringo South 4 Poor rains Poor pastures Poor river recharge Conflict Baringo Central 5 Poor rains High food prices Eldama Ravine 6 Poor rain distribution High Food prices 5.2 Ongoing interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions During the season under review, the county received relief food amounting to 2,400 bags of rice (50kg), 4,320 bags of beans (50kg) and 1,200 cartons of corn oil which were distributed across the county. Some cash transfer programs are ongoing. World Food Program is targeting 2, 778 households in Tiaty, Baringo North, Mogotio, Baringo South and Baringo Central sub counties with a cash transfer program whereby each household is receiving Ksh 6,500 for six months starting August 2022. World Vision carried out cash transfer program targeting 1,762 households in Mogotio, Tiaty West, Tiaty East and Baringo North sub counties at a cost of Ksh 9,604,000. The Kenya Red cross targeted 3,036 households with cash transfer whereby each household was receiving about Ksh 5,000 for a period of three months in Tiaty, Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) provided cash transfer program targeting 1,200 households in Mogotio, Baringo South, Tiaty East and Tiaty West sub counties whereby each beneficiary is receiving Ksh 6,000. Give Direct Organization is targeting 2,500 households with a cash transfer program whereby each beneficiary will receive Ksh 110,000 in three tranches. This is a one off program that is expected to last for about four months. 5.3.2 Nonfood interventions Sub Intervention Ward No. of Implementers Impacts Cost Time County beneficiar in terms Frame ies of food Baringo Rehabilitatio Saimo Soi, 4,000 Emergency Increase 69M Nov- June, North, n and Ilchamus, Desert Locust agricultur 2023 South, restoration of Kisanana project al Mogotio livelihoods and Kolowa productivi and Tiaty affected by ty desert locusts ALL Post-Harvest ALL 2000 County Reduced 8.5 2021-2023 Practices (Provided Government Post million (Inputs with WFP harvest supply and Hermetic losses construction bags) especially of stores in Cereal on cereal Baringo stores build North and at Eldama Bartolimo, Ravine Kewangoi and Arama All Encouraging All 2000 County Improve 3M 2021-2023 communities (Provided Government nutritional to plant high with beans WFP in the iron beans and sweet vulnerable and sweet potato communit potato rich in vines) for ies in the Vitamin A bulking county. Baringo Vaccination All 800 HH BCGFAO Boost 30M Jul,2022- South against PPR livestock Dec 2022 Baringo Health Mogotio, Baringo Baringo Provision of 500 HH BCGSHAFS Improve 2.M Jul,2022- North, Galla bucks, K livestock Dec 2022 Baringo Sahiwal bulls productivi South, and Dorper ty Tiaty and rams to Mogotio groups All sub- Capacity All 1000 HH BCG(MOALF Well 1M Throughout counties building of Partners Infirmed staff and Farmers and farmers staff. for best practices Mogotio Construction Mogotio 200 HH BCGDRLSP Improved 5M Jul,2022- of livestock pasture Dec 2022 feed store conservati Tiaty Tirioko Tirioko 120HH BCG 2,682,227 2022- Ongoing West borehole 2023 Tiaty Sugut water Tirioko 100HH BCG 1,500,000 2022- Ongoing West supply (sugut) 2023 project Piping and supply of water from sugut borehole to sugut centre Tirioko Kongor Tirioko 90HH BCG 2,000,000 2022- Ongoing borehole (kongor) 2023 Tirioko Kasongogh Tirioko 140HH BCG 2,500,000 2022- Ongoing borehole (Ngoron) 2023 ngoron kasongogh Tiaty Tuwot Loyamorok 110HH BCG 2,000,000 2022- Ongoing East borehole (Tuwot) 2023 Tiaty Chesirimion Loyamorok 100HH BCG 2,000,000 2022- Ongoing East centre (chesirimio 2023 Borehole n) Tiaty Adomeyon Loyamorok 150HH BCG 1,500,000 2022- Ongoing borehole (Adomeyon 2023 solar ) of metallic water tank, cattle trough and water kiosk Tiaty Katele pan Silale 80HH BCG 3,000,000 2022- Ongoing East dam 2023 of pan dam Tiaty Rehabilitatio Silale 130HH BCG 1,500,000 2022- Ongoing East n of 2023 boreholes, Tiaty Nasorot Silale 85HH BCG 1,000,000 2022- Ongoing East water Pump (Nasorot) 2023 installation and solar panel Tiaty Pkaghit water Kollowa 115HH BCG 1,800,000 2022- Ongoing West pan (Pkaghit) 2023 equipping, solar water pump and pipeline extension Tiaty Kaisakat 100HH BCG 3,500,000 2022- Ongoing West borehole Kollowa 2023 drilling and (Kaisakat) Tiaty Chepkalacha Tangulbei 160HH BCG 3,000,000 2022- Ongoing East borehole (Chepkalac 2023 drilling and ha) (kiosk, solar and tank) Mogotio Equipping of Mogotio 130 HH BCG 4.1M 1 year On Going Ngoswe BH Mogotio Completion Kisanana 490 HH WSTF 15 M 6 Months Ongoing ob (Emsos) Kaindaram Water Project Mogotio Equiping Emining 210 HH BCG 4.5M 6 Months On going Kapchelugun (Kimose) countywi Vitamin A All health 82,268 MOH 2,000,000 Two time de Supplementat facilities, supported by a ion selected UNICEF, year(Malez ECD Helen Keller i Bora and child fund Days) Countywi Zinc All health 75,000 County 800,000 Routine ion health Selected Management 100 health 107,492 County 240,000,06 routines health of Acute facilities department of 00 facilities Malnutrition health all over (IMAM) Surge at 6 supported by the health National county facilities in government, East Pokot UNICEF, WFP, KRC Countywi IYCN All health 107,492 County de Interventions facilities department of (EBF and and health Timely Intro community supported by of units IPC complementa ry Foods) and promotion of Orange flesh sweet potato Countywi Iron Folate All health County Routine ion among ANC health Pregnant supported by Women WVK, UNICEF Countywi Deworming All health 33,683 Routine de facilities Baringo - Parents Kapkelelwa 21,791- Parents Promote Termly central provide , pupils NGOs retention d water, -salawa GOK of learners fuel - Tenges in schools wood, handler s and purchas School meal programme in some schools Marigat PROVISION ALL 26,895 GOKMOE Increase CONTINU OF FOOD pupils enrollmen OS Baringo Provision of All 26,996 GOK Increase Continuous north food pupils NGOs enrolment commodities Mogotio Parents All 23,030 - GOK Promote Termly provided pupils - NGOs retention water, fuel of learners wood, paid in schools food handlers purchased Tiaty School ALL 12,388 GOK Improve termly west feeding pupils NGOs enrollmen program t Tiaty School All 8,167 GOK East feeding pupils NGOs program 5.3 Recommended interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Sub 2022 SRA Food Population Estimated proportion in Wards Estimated proportion in County security rank need of immediate food need of immediate food (Worst to best) assistance () per sub assistance () Per Ward county Tiaty 1 153,347 (55) 84,340 Tirioko 65-75 Kolowa 40-50 Ribkwo 55-65 Silale 50-60 TangulbeiKorossi 30-40 Loiyamorok 55-65 ChuroAmaya 20-30 Baringo 2 104,871 (45) 47,172 Barwessa 60-70 SaimoKipsaraman 40-50 SaimoSoi 80-90 Kabartonjo 0-5 Bartabwa 50-60 Mogotio 2 91,104 (35) 31,887 Mogotio 15-25 Emining 45-55 Kisanana 45-55 Baringo 4 90,104 (32) 28,597 Mukutani 40-50 South (lower Marigat 50-60 Mochongoi,Marigat, Ilchamus 40-50 Mukutani, Ilchamus Mochongoi 30-40 Baringo 5 96,951 (16) 15,110 Kabarnet (salawa) 30-40 Central (Parts of Tenges, Sacho 5-10 Kabarnet, Sacho and Tenges 30-40 Kapropita wards) Kapropita 30-40 Ewalel Chapchap 50-60 Eldama 6 129,535 (5) 6,477 (Urban poor) Lembus 10-20 Ravine Ravine 45-55 (5) 6,477 Lembus Kwen 20-30 (Perkerra, Koibatek wards Koibatek 40-50 and urban poor) Lembus Perkerra 40-50 Mumberesmaji mazuri 10-20 Total population in need of food assistance 220,000 5.2.1 Nonfood interventions Sub County Intervention Ward No. of Proposed Requi Available Time beneficiarie Implementers red Resource Frame s Resou s All Increased access All 8,000 FAO, All Financ Staff 2023- to drought projects in the es 2024 resilient crop department of (Kshs planting materials Agriculture, 20 WFP, SHA millio ALL Increase adoption ALL 8000 National Financ Staff 2023- of climate smart Government, es 2024 technologies County (Kshs especially for Government 10 lowland areas and Millio development n) ALL Supply inputs All 200 Ministry of Financ Staff, 2021- especially drought School Education, es Availabili2024 escaping planting s with Ministry of (100 ty of well materials and farms Agriculture millio fenced fertilizers to and Irrigation, n) farms, Schools and other County institutions of Government Learning for and Learning income development generation and partners food and Nutrition Tiaty Dam construction Kolow 250 County Financ Land 2022- for crop a Government es Availabili2025 production and (Barpel and partners (120 ty livestock watering lo- area Millio Apuket n) Chepk aral, Kapeta upper ALL Reduce post- ALL 2300 County Financ Trained 2023- harvest losses Households Government e 27 staff 2024 implementation of Baringo and Millio development n Baringo -Vaccinations All 50,000 BCG, FAO 5M 0 Jan,2023- North, against LSD, wards Cattle, and other Jun 2023 Mogotio CCPP and PPR 200,000 Development Deworming goats partners -Disease 30,000 0.4M surveillance Sheep Pasroral and Provision of All 2,000HH BCG, FAO, 40M 0 Jan,2023- Agro Livestock feeds wards NDMA Jun 2023 pastoralarea Partners Pasroral and Livestock off-take All 5,000TLU BCGFAOPar 75M 0 Jan,2023- Agro wards tners Jun 2023 pastoralarea All sub- Provisiojn of All 5000HH BCGPartners 8M 0 Jan,2023- counties pasture seeds wards Jun 2023 All sub- Employment of All 6,000HHs BCG 100M 0 Continuou counties addition extension wards s staff to replace retirees -Baringo Establishment of All 4,500HH MOALF 90 M 0 Jan,2023- North strategic livestock wards BCG Jun 2023 -Baringo feed reserves; 12 NDMA(EU) South Partners -Mogotio across 6 sub- Loruk, RenovationConst All 13,000HH BCG, Partners 10M 0 Jan,2023- ruction of wards Jun 2023 livestock Auction yards saimo-soi Desilting of 10 Barket 1200HH BCG, 20M 1-4 months No.water pans iew partners Barwessa Pipeline extension Expan 1500HH BCG 20M 1-6months sion of partners yieldin kapluk teland Ayaty a BHs Bartabwa Equipping of The 1200HH BCG 15M 1-6 months boreholes drilled partners les Kabartonjo Pipeline extension Kabart 2800HH BCG 15M 1-12 onjo partners months Saimo- Pipeline extension Kapter 3200HH BCG 20M 1-12 kipsaraman e,kapc partners months hepkor ,mond oi and kasisit mberes Maji BH water Maji 80HH BCG 5 1 Drilled and Maji project mazuri Community million million capped mazuri Lembus Torongo BH Toron 100 HH BCG 5 1 Drilled and water project go Community million million capped Lembus Kapsigot water Tinet 50 HH BCG 3.5 1.5 31st Kwen project Community million million October. Ravine Kokorwonin Ravin 40 HH BCG 1 1 31stApril. water project e Community million million 2023 Koibatek Lebolos water Sabati 30 HH BCG 1 1 31st project a Community million million October. Lembus Kibias Tolmo Saos 20 HH BCG 1 0.5 31st Perkerra water project Kibias Community million million October. MogotioI Servicing of Comm BCG, NG, 10M 1- 3months pumping units unity RCS, WV, Water WS UNCEF, management NDMA,WFP Emining Servicing and Comm BCG, NG, 6M 1- 3months pumping units WS UNCEF, Kisanana Servicing and Comm BCG, NG, 8M 1- 3months pumping units WS UNCEF, Mogotio Drilling and Across BCG, NG, 100M 1 - 2 yrs Equipping of 5 all RCS, WV, strategic BHs livelih UNCEF, along migratory oods NDMA routes and settlement areas Mogotio Construction and Across BCG, NG, 100 M 1 2 yrs Rehabilitation of all RCS, WV, 4 potential water livelih UNCEF, supplies oods NDMA Mogotio Rehabilitation 4 Across BCG, NG, 300M 1 - 3Yrs water pans, all RCS, WV, Construction of livelih UNCEF, 14 major water oods NDMA,WFP pans and 80 farm ponds Saimo soi Drilling of Ward 3000HH BCG 150M 1-12months boreholes and wide partners expansion of high yielding boreholes and construction of small dams Bartabwa Spring protection Ward 2900HH BCG 120M 1-12months ,tank construction wide partners pipeline distribution ,and construction of small dams Barwessa Drilling of Ward 2500HH BCG 100M 1-12months boreholes wide partners ,Construction of tanks and expansion of the high yielding boreholes Countywide Vitamin A Count 90,449 MOH, Helen 1.5M 0 Jan June Supplementation ywide Keller 2023 (Children 6 International months) Countywide Zinc Count 20,000 MOH 0 July-Dec Countywide Management of Count 8971 MOH 28M 0 Jan - June Acute ywide 2023 No. of Malnutrition children 6 (IMAM) 59 months estimated to malnourish Countywide IYCN Count Health Care MOH, KRC 2.5 M 0 Interventions ywide workers WVK March 2023 complementary Foods) Countywide IYCN Count 41,533 MOH 4.1 M 0 Jan June Interventions ywide 2023 complementary Children Foods) birth 2 years Countywide Iron Folate Count 34576 MOH 5.35M 0 Jan -June among Pregnant pregnant Women women Countywide Deworming Count 83,066 1.66M 0 Jan - ywide children 1 June2023 5 years Countywide Mass screening Count Children County Govt 1.2M 0 March 2023 ywide from hotpot and partners spot Areas Countywide Intensify Mass Count 150 County Govt 3.5M 0 screening and ywide facilities in and partners referrals the County Countywide Provision of food Count Countywide County Govt 28M 0 supplements ywide and partners Countywide Integrated Count 85 hot spots County Govt 12M 0 outreach services ywide and hard to and partners reach sites in 6 sub Countywide SMART Survey Count Countywide MOH, 6.5M 0 To be done ywide UNICEF, the whole KRC, WVK county in Self Help July Aug Africa 2023 Baringo Sourcing of all 7,894 -MOE 8.96M Fuel central affordable meals COUNTY (640 fire to retain learners GOVERNME bags wood in schools NT 50kg - NGAF rice cookin NGOS 6,000 g CBO,S utensil PARNTS 256 s 90kg - sacks Human beans resourc 12,000 es 100kg millet 10,000 bags ,90 maize 6000) Marigat Recommended for All 9921 MOE GOK (1.48M) Fuel Immediatel school feeding County 121 ,bag fire y program government 50kg wood NGOs rice,6 Human Well wishers 000 resourc 60bags es beans 12,000 BARINGO ALL ALL 14826 GOKMOEN Human CONTINU NORTH GOPRIVATE resourcOS SECTORS es KOIBATEK Provision of KOIB 5502 GOK 0.798M Human Immediatel Schools meals ATEK World Food (61 bags resourcy programme. WAR Programme of rice es D 6000 Firewo Beans od furl 6112,0 Mogotio Food All 74221 GOK 1.254M Human Immediatel County (Beans resourcy government 40 bags es Education Rice Firewo partners 360bsg od Parents Maize 93 bags)