NOVEMBER 2022 1. Drought situation overview The drought situation continued to deteriorate in twenty-one (21) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the four failed consecutive seasons and late onset and poorly distributed 2022 short rains season. The number of people in need of food assistance stands at 4.35 million currently, and the impacts of the anticipated short rains 2022 is expected to lead to increase or decrease of these numbers. Fourteen (14) counties namely; Laikipia, Marsabit, Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado and Mandera are classified under Alarm drought phase, seven (7) counties including Embu, Narok, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri and Lamu are in the Alert drought phase. The remaining two (2) counties including Baringo and West Pokot are in Normal drought Figure 1.0: Drought Phase Classification phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 942,000 cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification. 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 October Rainfall Performance Analysis of the October 2022 monthly rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties experienced depressed rainfall. The Pastoral North West (PNW) clusters received 50 of the October long term mean (LTM). The Pastoral North East (PNE) counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received less than 25 of the October LTM. The South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties also received very minimal rainfall with Kajiado and Taita Taveta counties receiving less than 5. The Coast Marginal Agriculture (CMA) counties; Kwale, Figure 2.0. October 2022 Rainfall Performance Kilifi and Lamu counties received little rains. Lamu County received moderate rainfall between 51 75 . Some parts of Agro-Pastoral (AGP) cluster; Baringo and West Pokot received off season September-November (SON) rainfall between 76 to 100 of the October LTM, with some areas especially Pokot south receiving 101 110 LTM of the October rainfall. Figure 2.0. Shows rainfall performance. 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for November. The rainfall outlook for the month of November is illustrated in figure 2. Most ASAL counties in the following clusters; PNE, SEMA, AGP and CMA livelihood zones including; Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Meru, Kitui, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Embu and Kajiado are forecasted to receive increased probability of depressed rainfall. Parts of PNW, SEMA and AGP including; Turkana, Samburu, Laikipia, Nyeri, Embu, Kajiado, West Pokot, Baringo and Narok are forecasted to recieve Figure 3. November 2022 Rainfall forecast depressed rainfall during the month of November. Other spots in arid and semi-arid counties are likely to experience typically very dry conditions. These includes; parts of Kitui and Tana River, central parts of Isiolo County and parts of Kilifi and Taita-Taveta counties. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for November 2022. 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3 considers the vegetation condition index (VCI) in October 2021 and October 2022. Generally, the vegetation condition in 2021 was better than that of 2022 same period. October 2021 October 2022 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) October 20212022 The month of October 2022 indicated a slight improvement in vegetation condition in some parts of the ASALs. The slight improvement is associated with off-season showers of September October November (SON) season mostly in the western parts of Kenya, Turkana, Baringo and West Pokot counties stretching all the way to Narok and Kajiado counties. None of the countysub county was in Extreme vegetation deficit. The following four counties (4); Isiolo, Mandera, Kilifi and Marsabit are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following eight (8) counties including; Wajir, Samburu, Garissa, Tana River, Kajiado, Laikipia, Kwale and Taita Taveta are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and contingency planning. The following seven (7) counties including; Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri and Lamu recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following four (4) counties including; Baringo, West Pokot, Embu and Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in October 2022 is worse as compared to the same period in October 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of October 2022 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), October 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe (4) (18) vegetation Isiolo, Mandera, Kilifi, Wajir (West, Eldas), Samburu (East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, deficit Marsabit North Horr), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa), Kilifi (Magarini, Malindi, Ganze), Kajiado (Central), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab, Balambala) Moderate (7) (31) vegetation Wajir, Samburu, Garissa (Township, Ijara, Fafi), Kajiado (East, South), Kilifi deficit Garissa, Tana River, (Kaloleni, North), Kitui (Rural, West, Mwingi North), Kwale Kajiado, Kwale, Taita (Kinango), Laikipia (North) Makueni (Kilome), Mandera (West, South) Marsabit (Saku), Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe North), Nyeri (Town), Samburu (North), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Turkana (North), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South) Normal (8) (36) vegetation Turkana, Laikipia Embu (Mbeere South), Kajiado (North, West), Kilifi (South, Rabai), greenness Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui South, Mwingi Central, Mwingi Lamu West), Kwale (Lunga Lunga, Matuga) Laikipia (East), Lamu (East), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West) Meru (Central Imenti, Igembe South, North Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini) Samburu (West) Taita Taveta (Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), Turkana (Loima, Central, West) Wajir (East), Narok (East, North, South) Vegetation (4) (24) greenness Baringo, West Pokot, Baringo (Central, North, South, Eldama ravine, Mogotio, Tiaty) Above normal Embu, Narok Embu (Runyenjes) Kwale (Msambweni), Laikipia (West), Lamu (West), Makueni (Makueni, Mbooni) Meru (Central Imenti, South Imenti), Nyeri (Othaya, Tetu), Turkana (South, East), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, Pokot South, Sigor) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Narok West) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties remained poor as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month. The current pasture and browse condition would not last for long due to high concentration of livestock in the grazing areas. Pasture and browse deteriorated to Fair condition in West Pokot, Lamu and Baringo which were in good state during the last month. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, October 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Embu Baringo Embu Baringo West Pokot Garissa West Pokot Garissa Kilifi Isiolo Lamu Isiolo Kwale Kilifi Kitui Narok Kitui Samburu Laikipia Kwale Taita Taveta Lamu Narok Tana River Meru Taita Taveta Turkana Tana River Wajir Tharaka Nithi Makueni Turkana Mandera Wajir Marsabit Laikipia Nyeri Makueni Kajiado 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition displayed poor and fair conditions in most of the arid and semi-arid counties. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, 65 percent of counties reported poor livestock body condition for cattle while 56 percent of counties reported poor livestock body condition for goats as shown in Table 3 Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, October 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Kwale Garissa Baringo Isiolo Embu Isiolo Embu Kitui Kilifi Kitui Kilifi Narok Taita Taveta Narok Kwale Samburu West Pokot Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Lamu Tana River West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Turkana Turkana Lamu Wajir Wajir Nyeri Laikipia Makueni Meru Makueni Mandera Marsabit Kajiado 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month under review was on a decreasing trend as compared to the previous month of September in most of the counties. Only Narok County recorded an improving trend. Persistent dry spell period being experienced across the ASAL region led to poor pasture condition hence low milk production. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year in 20 of the 23 counties. Makueni and West Pokot counties recorded above LTA. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, October 2022 Milk West Pokot Laikipia Baringo Narok Garissa Baringo Makueni Embu Isiolo Embu Production Garissa Kitui Kilifi Isiolo Wajir Kwale Kilifi West Pokot Samburu Kitui Lamu Taita Taveta Kwale Makueni Tana River Narok Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Samburu Meru Kajiado Taita Taveta Laikipia Tana River Mandera Tharaka Nithi Turkana NB: Turkana had zero readings 1.3.4 Cattle prices 69 percent of the counties recorded cattle prices below normal with 11 counties reporting worsening trend. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However; Garissa, Tana River, Kwale and Lamu counties reported above normal LTA but with decreasing trend due to deteriorating pasture and browse conditions. The following counties including; Isiolo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Narok, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Kajiado, Laikipia, Makueni and Marsabit reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, October 2022 Cattle Garissa Embu Baringo Lamu Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Tana River West Pokot Isiolo Turkana Kilifi Kwale Narok Kilifi Wajir Kitui Lamu Kitui West Pokot Kwale Samburu Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Baringo Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Embu Tana River Turkana Garissa Kajiado Wajir Mandera Laikipia Kajiado Nyeri Makueni Laikipia Meru Marsabit 1.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in all the ASAL counties were below LTA with 56 percent of counties recording below LTA goat prices with a stable and worsening trend except for Lamu which recorded an improvement trend. Consequently, 10 counties are depicting worsening trend due to the deteriorating pasture and browse conditions. Table 6.0: Goat Prices, October 2022 Goat Kilifi Garissa Turkana Lamu Baringo Embu Kwale Kitui Tharaka Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Nithi Kilifi Kajiado Lamu Samburu Wajir Laikipia Kitui Narok Tana River Marsabit Samburu Kwale Isiolo Makueni Narok Mandera Mandera Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Marsabit Turkana Kajiado Taita Taveta Meru Baringo Tana River Nyeri Embu Wajir Meru West Pokot Taita 1.4 Crop production CMA counties: In Kilifi County, few farmers were still harvesting maize, green grams and cowpeas during the month under review. In some areas, in Kwale County, harvesting of the seasonal crops was complete with harvests having been realized only in the mixed farming livelihood zone while the livestock farming livelihood zone posted nil harvests. SEMA counties: In Kitui County, land preparation had started in few farms in anticipation of the 2022 short rains. In addition to rain-fed cropping, farmers along main rivers (Athi, Tana, Tiva and Thua) had horticultural crops that were at various stages of development. In Makueni county, the farms were clear and farmers were busy preparing them in anticipation of the October- November-December short rains season. In addition to rain-fed cropping, farmers along main rivers (Athi, Kikuo, Kaiti and Thwake) had horticultural crops that were at various stages of development. In Tharaka Nithi county, on-farm activities during the month of September were land preparation in readiness for the short rain seasonal onset. 1.4.1 Maize prices In West pokot, the price of maize was at a worsening trend in the month under review while in the remaining counties 16 were at Stable and 6 recorded improving trend as compared to the previous month. as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, October 2022 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Kilifi Embu Baringo West Pokot Kwale Kilifi Garissa Laikipia Lamu Isiolo Lamu Meru Kajiado Narok Nyeri Kitui Garissa Wajir Kwale Kitui Laikipia Makueni Makueni Samburu Mandera Tana River Marsabit Turkana Narok Tharaka Nithi Samburu Wajir Taita Taveta Marsabit Tana River Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Mandera Turkana Baringo Taita Taveta 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 17 counties is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general increasing trend in distance to household from water source. Arid counties distances to household water access ranged between 2.6 kilometers (km) and 7.7 km with West Pokot recording lowest and Kitui recording highest distances to household water access. Counties including; Baringo, Makueni, Narok and West Pokot showed an improving trend. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, October 2022 Distance Embu Baringo West Pokot Kajiado Garissa Baringo Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Embu Isiolo Laikipia Kwale Kilifi househol Kilifi West Pokot Kitui ds to Kitui Laikipia Narok Kwale Marsabit Samburu Narok Meru Taita Taveta water sources Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Turkana Lamu Wajir Makueni Lamu Mandera Makueni Nyeri 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is above the LTA and on a worsening trend except for Baringo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Narok, Samburu and West Pokot counties which are at improving trend due to the little showers received in the respective counties. The average trekking distance for Arid counties ranged between 6.7 km and 40 kilometers(km) with Baringo recording lowest distances and Marsabit highest while the average trekking distance for semi-arid counties ranged between 3.7 km to 8.3 km with Narok recording the lowest and Kitui highest. Table 9.0. shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, October 2022 Distance from Baringo West Pokot Kajiado Garissa Baringo Embu Kajiado Isiolo Embu livestock Garissa Kilifi Kitui grazing area Isiolo Turkana Kwale to main water Kilifi West Pokot Narok Kitui Laikipia Samburu sources Kwale Marsabit Taita Taveta Taita Tharaka Nithi Taveta Wajir Tana River Lamu Tharaka Makueni Nithi Mandera Turkana Nyeri Wajir Meru 1.6 Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA) displaying worsening conditions in most counties. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, October 2022 Terms of Lamu Baringo Kwale Lamu Embu trade Embu West Pokot Baringo Garissa (ToT) Garissa Laikipia Isiolo Isiolo West Pokot Kajiado Kitui Mandera Kilifi Kwale Tana River Kitui Makueni Turkana Makueni Marsabit Meru Meru Narok Narok Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Wajir Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Turkana Samburu Tana River Kilifi Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Garissa, Kitui, Kwale, Makueni, Samburu, Turkana, West-Pokot recorded MUAC below the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. The counties of Kwale, Samburu, Kitui, Garissa, Turkana, Kwale, Makueni, Garissa and West Pokot recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), October 2022 Indicator Current Trend Kajiado Baringo Garissa Kwale Baringo Kajiado Nyeri Embu Kitui Samburu Embu Kilifi MUAC Kajiado Isiolo Kwale Kitui Isiolo Marsabit Marsabit Laikipia Makueni Garissa Laikipia Meru Meru Lamu Samburu Turkana Lamu Narok Tharaka Mandera Turkana Kwale Mandera Nyeri Nithi Taita Taveta West-Pokot Makueni Taita-Taveta Tharaka- Wajir Tana River Garissa Tana River Nithi Kilifi West Pokot Wajir Narok 2.0. Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of October 2022. Based on the range of indicators monitored above, seven (7) counties including Embu, Narok, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri and Lamu are in the Alert drought phase, while two (2) counties including Baringo and West Pokot remain in the Normal drought phase. Fourteen (14) counties namely; Laikipia, Marsabit, Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado and Mandera are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, two (2) counties reported an improving trend, two (2) counties recorded a stable trend, while nineteen (19) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, October 2022 Drought Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal West Pokot Baringo Alert Embu, Narok, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Lamu, Alarm Laikipia Marsabit Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado, Mandera, Emergency None None None Recovery 3.0. Recommendations 3.1 Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. 3.2 Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Support on livestock commercial and slaughter in situ Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. 3.2 Water sector Scale up water trucking interventions to communities and institutions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. 3.3 Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). 3.4 Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. 3.5 Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. 3.6 Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) and Sector Technical working groups to effectively coordinate drought response activities. ANNEXES Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th October 2022 BARINGO County 63.98 72.67 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Normal Central 66.68 76.34 vegetation greenness which showed slight improvement when Eldama 68.42 71.57 compared with the previous month of September. Mogotio 60.84 68.6 North 65.93 74.99 South 61.82 72.23 Tiaty 63.59 72.79 MANDERA County 28.02 18.54 The county recorded worsened to severe vegetation deficit from Banissa 29.18 16.34 moderate vegetation condition during the last month of September. M East 16.19 11.24 Mandera South and Mandera West were stable at moderate vegetation Lafey 22.76 13.55 deficit M North 27.51 18.93 M South 34.46 21.95 M West 28.64 22.31 TURKANA County 41.54 44.32 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness but remained at T Central 40.4 46 normal vegetation condition during the month of October. Turkana East T. East 46.91 52.39 improved to above normal vegetation greenness. T. Loima 34.69 42.08 T. North 31 32.84 T. South 53.19 57.73 T. West 50.65 47.45 MARSABIT County 13.52 15.61 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the Laisaimis 14.85 15.79 month of October. Saku improved to moderate vegetation greenness. Moyale 13.9 16.08 N. Horr 13.94 15.14 Saku 17.93 20.23 WAJIR County 27.91 22.81 The County remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness. Wajir W East 38.21 26.07 east and Tarbaj sub counties worsened to moderate vegetation deficit W. Eldas 17.2 15.91 from normal vegetation greenness W. North 30.69 28.24 W. South 27.33 22.22 W. Tarbaj 40.75 28.93 W West 15.74 14.97 SAMBURU County 21.46 23.22 The county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit compared to last S East 12.5 10.59 month of September. Samburu west was stable at normal vegetation S. North 27.9 30.71 greenness. S. West 49.11 35.88 GARISSA County 27.14 23.98 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the Balambala 16.24 17.46 month under review. Ijara worsened to moderate vegetation deficit. Daadab 22.36 18.42 Fafi 30.88 26.79 Ijara 41.69 34.04 Lagdera 12.35 14.67 Dujis 26.82 27.07 ISIOLO County 13.58 13.98 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit I. North 12.3 12.7 during the month of October. This was stable when compared to last I. South 15.93 month. 15.54 TANA RIVER County 31.17 31.29 The county and all one of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation Bura 32.01 29.32 deficit during the month of October. Galole 29.09 30.74 Garsen 31.76 33.32 KAJIADO County 27.5 32.54 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado central K. Central 18.35 19.58 maintained at severe vegetation deficit during the month of October. K. East 23.77 29.98 K. North 27.55 41.84 K. South 24 29.76 K. West 37.12 42.99 LAIKIPIA County 27.32 37.63 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a stability. L. East 24.22 37.53 Laikipia West improved to above normal vegetation greenness from at L. North 18.1 25.7 normal vegetation greenness while Laikipia North improved to 46.07 60.03 moderate vegetation deficit. L. West THARAKA County 38.38 37.56 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month NITHI Chuka 41.68 46.28 under review which was a stable trend as compared to the previous Maara 47.94 49.42 month of September. Tharaka 34.09 30.48 WEST POKOT County 59.31 64.25 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation Kacheliba 57.8 61.81 greenness during the month under review which was an stable when Kapenguria 67.98 73.79 compared with the previous month of September. Pokot South 68.63 75 Sigor 49.21 54.3 EMBU County 36.17 50.65 The county and all its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation Manyatta 35.85 52.94 greenness except Mbeere South which recorded normal vegetation Mbeere 52.19 greenness. North 38.91 Mbeere 46.84 South 32.93 Runyenjes 42.55 58.95 County 35.04 37.97 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness which was stable Kitui Central 24.82 35.77 when compared to the previous month of September. Generally, there Kitui East 34.36 37.04 was improvement in vegetation greenness across the sub counties. Mwingi 35.32 37.9 KITUI Central Mwingi 29.87 30.31 North Mwingi 40.81 49.24 Kitui Rural 30.31 33.41 Kitui South 37.78 40.08 Kitui West 32.17 41.33 County 39.95 43.51 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month Kaiti 40.65 49.14 under review which was a stable trend as compared to September. Kibwezi East 32.73 35.62 MAKUENI Kibwezi 38.62 West 36.51 Kilome 25.98 34.94 Makueni 55.49 57.65 Mbooni 51.19 55.01 County 38.13 39.11 The county recorded normal vegetation a stability in vegetation Buuri 34.19 38.84 greenness during the month of October. Central 53.65 Imenti 56.8 MERU Igembe 33.26 Central 34.9 Igembe 21.35 North 19.69 Igembe 41.82 South 45 North Imenti 43.78 47.13 South Imenti 65.19 63.63 Tigania East 34.95 37.36 Tigania West 33.09 35.86 County 38.94 46.65 The county and three of its sub counties noted a stability at normal NYERI Kieni 42.17 44.44 vegetation greenness. Mathira improved from moderate vegetation Mathira 27.15 45.88 deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Mukurweini 38.54 44.96 Othaya 43.93 59.03 Tetu 45.12 54.59 Township 11.91 32.31 County 25.45 18.21 The vegetation condition in the county worsened to severe vegetation KILIFI Ganze 18.85 12.15 deficit during the month of October from moderate vegetation deficit. Kaloleni 33.93 22.87 Magarini 23.47 17.92 Malindi 26.7 14.86 Kilifi-North 38.7 26.07 Rabai 50.22 36.33 Kilifi-South 52.97 40.29 KWALE County 36.8 30.07 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation greenness to Kinango 27.62 20.98 moderate vegetation greenness from normal vegetation greenness Lungalunga 52.24 42.06 during the month of October. Matuga 45.46 41.65 Msambweni 49.73 51.44 LAMU County 61.93 49.71 The County and one of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation Lamu East 58.22 43.79 greenness which was a worsening trend when compared to the previous Lamu West 64.08 53.14 month of September. TAITA County 27.5 27.65 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit TAVETA Mwatate 24.26 21.25 which was stable when compared to the previous month of September. Taveta 27.96 30.13 Wundanyi subcounty improved to normal vegetation greenness. Voi 27.72 27.76 Wundanyi 33.57 35.83 County 41.46 53 Narok-East 33.46 37.57 NAROK Emurua There an improvement in vegetation cover in the county to above Dikirr 65.18 78.88 normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. Kilgoris 52.98 69.62 Narok-North 39.72 37.97 Narok-South 31.83 40.68 Narok-West 47.59 68.62 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in several sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle.