January 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS During the month of December 2019, most The positive trend was attributed to the impact of the ASAL areas received enhanced rainfall enhanced rainfall received during the October - that was also well distributed both in time December season that has recharged water pans, and space. By the end of December, nearly dams, natural ponds and other surface water sources all counties had recorded more than 100 with adequate water hence improving water access percent of their long term average (LTA) for both domestic and livestock use, to a great extent. rainfall for the month indicating that most ASAL areas had received above normal Generally, the trend in the proportion of children at rainfall. risk of malnutrition by mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) of less than 135 mm across the ASAL The ongoing October to December counties is improving or stable implying that the seasonal rains have resulted in improved prevalence of malnutrition among children aged 6 pasture and browse condition and has also 59 months has reduced in comparison with last replenished most surface water sources in month. In addition, average MUAC rate in 15 the ASAL counties. As a result, the current counties is either close to the long term average state of pasture and browse in terms of both (LTA) or has fallen below LTA indicating that the quantity and quality is above that normally nutritional status of children aged below five years in experienced at this period of the year in these counties is currently better than would be most ASAL areas. expected at this time of the year. Return distances to water for households As a result of the above average rainfall performance have generally reduced in all the 23 ASAL recorded during the month of December , all the 23 counties. ASAL counties are now categorized in the normal drought phase, compared with 21 counties in the normal phase and two in recovery in November 2019. Drought phase classification, December 2019 Marsabit, Tana River, Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Wajir, Tharaka Nithi Embu (Mbeere), Kilifi, Makueni, (Tharaka) Mandera Lamu, Nyeri (Kieni), 1.0. Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall In December 2019, most ASAL areas received enhanced rainfall that was also fairly well distributed both in time and space. By the end of December, nearly all counties had recorded more than 100 percent of their long term average (LTA) rainfall for the month indicating that most ASAL areas had received above normal rainfall. For example, during the month of December, Lodwar Town in Turkana County, recorded rainfall that was above 200 percent of the normal rainfall for the month. In Marsabit, Moyale and Saku sub-counties received enhanced rains, which were above average, parts of Laisamis sub-county received torrential rains while areas in Illeret, Dukana and TurbiBubisa wards in North Horr sub-county received slightly enhanced rains. Rainfall amounts received in Kwale county, were above-normal in all the three dekads since 39.5 mm, 36 mm and 64.7 mm of rainfall were received in dekads one, two and three in comparison with an LTA of 33.6 mm, 23.4 mm and 24.8 mm respectively. The ongoing October to December seasonal rains have resulted in improved pasture and browse condition and has also replenished most surface water sources in the ASAL counties. Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in November 2019 with that in December 2019. The maps show that vegetation greenness is on an improving trend compared to November 2019 and it further illustrates that the condition of vegetation in all ASAL counties is within normal and above normal ranges for the period. The high vegetation regeneration witnessed during the month under review is attributed to the good performance of the October - November - December (OND) 2019 seasonal rainfall. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2019 and December 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) November 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) December 2019 Water sources The enhanced rainfall experienced since beginning of October has recharged most open water sources and hence the most relied upon sources of water for both domestic and livestock use in December were pans, dams, shallow wells and rivers. Across the ASAL counties, most surface water sources are recharged to between 75 and 100 percent of their full capacity and the available water is likely to last for at least three months. For example, in Samburu County, traditional river wells accounted for approximately 58 percent of usage by households followed by pans and dams at 22.6 percent. Other water sources used by households during the month under review were springs at 9.7 percent, while the proportion that depended on boreholes and rivers was 6.5 and 3.2 percent respectively. In all counties, the current water situation is above normal compared to the similar period at this time of the year. Livestock production Most ASAL areas recorded an improvement in livestock productivity in December which was attributed to good pasture and browse condition and reduced trekking distances to water sources. Pasture and browse condition Condition of pasture and browse in December in all the arid and semi-arid counties was good as depicted in Table 1. The observed state of pasture and browse in terms of both quantity and quality was above that normally experienced at such a time of the year in most ASAL areas and was attributed to the enhanced rainfall received in December compounded by the cumulative effect of the rains received in October and November. However, in Turkana County, pasture situation was classified as fair owing to the poor performance of rains in parts of the county especially in some pockets in Turkana North. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, December 2019 Pasture Browse P oor Fair Good P oor F air Good Turkana Tana River Wajir Turkana Makueni Tharaka Nithi Nyeri (Kieni) Mandera Marsabit West Pokot Embu (Mbeere) Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Lamu Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta Mandera Marsabit Baringo Garissa Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Kwale Laikipia Tana River Wajir Narok Meru (Meru North) Tharaka Nithi Lamu Samburu Taita Taveta West Pokot Embu (Mbeere) Meru (Meru North) Livestock body condition In all counties, livestock body condition has improved compared to last month due to rise in availability of good forage combined with reduced livestock trekking distances. As presented in Table 2, during the month under review, all ASAL counties reported that body condition for cattle and goats was good and on an improving trend. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, December 2019 Cattle Goats P oor F air Good P oor F air Good Baringo Embu Kitui West Pokot Wajir Makueni Garissa Isiolo Lamu Taita Taveta Nyeri Mandera Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Samburu Turkana Kwale Marsabit Narok Meru Baringo Embu Kitui Samburu Turkana Kwale Garissa Isiolo Lamu West Pokot Wajir Makueni Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia Taita Taveta Nyeri Mandera Marsabit Narok Meru Tana River Tharaka Nithi Tana River Tharaka Nithi Milk production Table 1 illustrates the trend in milk production in the 23 ASAL counties. Across the ASAL areas improvement in forage and water availability has led to enhanced livestock body condition consequently resulting to increased productivity. In Turkana County, for instance, the amount of milk produced per day per household increased by 25 percent to 2.5 litres in December from 2 litres in November. In Samburu, average milk production per household per day rose by 17 percent from 1.2 litres in November to 1.4 litres in December while in Embu (Mbeere), Kitui, Isiolo, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) and Kajiado average milk production increased by 33, 22, 17, 15 and 14 percent respectively. However, milk production in some ASAL areas declined in December. In Baringo, for example, the average household milk production recorded in December was lower than the level attained in November by 15 percent while in Lamu milk production per household fell by 18 percent from 1.7 litres in November to 1.4 litres in December. The decrease in milk production in Baringo was attributed to the displacement of households in the irrigated livelihood zone due to floods while in Lamu the drop in milk production was associated to the deterioration of forage condition in the grazing areas as a result of flooding. Table 3.0: Milk production, December 2019 Milk Garissa Kwale Baringo Embu Makueni Baringo Production Isiolo Laikipia Embu Garissa Meru Kilifi Mandera Narok Kajiado Isiolo Narok Kwale Marsabit Taita Taveta Kilifi Kajiado Taita Taveta Lamu Meru Tana River Kitui Kitui Tana River Nyeri Turkana Lamu Mandera Wajir Tharaka Nithi Makueni Marsabit West Pokot Wajir Samburu Nyeri Laikipia West Pokot Samburu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Cattle prices Improved cattle body condition which was credited to availability of adequate pasture and water in close proximity to the grazing areas combined with the effects of high demand and low supply of cattle offered for sale as most livestock keepers were holding their livestock were the major drivers of the higher cattle prices recorded in December. Consequently, in majority of the ASAL counties cattle prices have improved or have remained stable. For example, in Kajiado, Isiolo, Wajir, Marsabit and Makueni the current prices for cattle are above the prices normally reported for the same period (LTA) by 63, 57, 52, 25 and 23 percent respectively. However, in three ASAL counties: Embu (Mbeere), Kitui and Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) the situation has not returned to normal fully and hence the current cattle prices are lower than the three-year average price for the month as shown Table 4. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, December 2019 Cattle Taita Taveta Nyeri Laikipia Embu Isiolo Baringo Prices Tana River Wajir Meru Kitui Kitui Embu West Pokot Lamu Tharaka Makueni Kajiado Baringo Isiolo Mandera Kilifi Kajiado Kilifi Marsabit Laikipia Mandera Makueni Samburu Lamu Turkana Marsabit Tana river Meru Samburu Narok Tharaka Nithi Narok Turkana Nyeri Wajir Taita Taveta Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trend in goat prices in December in the 23 ASAL counties. During the month of December goat prices in approximately 90 percent of the ASAL counties were above average or close to LTA. The above average prices for goats was attributed to their good body condition and better prices offered during the December festive season. Conversely, in three counties: Mandera, Kilifi and Turkana goat prices were below the three-year average due to market forces of supply and demand occasioned by the high volumes of small stock offered for sale. Table 5.0: Goat prices, December 2019 Goat Baringo Meru Mandera Embu Baringo Kilifi Prices Embu Nyeri Kilifi Garissa Kajiado Turkana Garissa Tana River Turkana Isiolo Kitui Isiolo Wajir Laikipia Mandera Kitui Lamu Kwale Lamu Makueni Meru Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Tana River Kwale Samburu Laikipia Marsabit Makueni Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Wajir Kajiado West Pokot Narok Taita Taveta All ASAL counties received average to above average rainfall during the October to December (OND) short rains season resulting in overall favourable crop conditions. In the marginal agricultural counties like Makueni, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Kwale, Nyeri (Kieni), Kitui, Embu (Mbeere), Kilifi, Meru (Meru North) and Taita Taveta the main crops grown which include maize, beans, millet, sorghum, cow peas, green grams are performing well and were reported to be at tussling, flowering and podding stages with some of the early planted crops approaching maturity and harvesting stage. The heavy rains, however, has significantly reduced crop production prospects in the low lying and riverine areas in some ASAL areas like Kitui, Taita Taveta, Embu (Mbeere), Tana River, Garissa, Kilifi and Nyeri (Kieni). Limited cases of fall army worm (FAW) infestation were reported in Kitui, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Kwale, Nyeri (Kieni) and Taita Taveta but so far the effect of FAW in these counties has not been substantial to affect production. Maize prices Maize price trends in the ASAL counties are demonstrated in Table 6. In about 80 percent of the counties, maize prices recorded in December were higher than usual compared with the 2016 - 2018 average. The high average maize price is attributed to poor crop harvest in the previous season which has led to limited maize stocks at household level and consequently creating a high demand of the maize in the local markets. For instance, in Lamu County, the retail price of a kilogram of maize was Kshs 73, which was 83 percent above the 2016 - 2018 average. In Meru, a kilogram of maize was retailing at Kshs 45 repersenting a 63 percent margin above Kshs 27 in the three year average while in Tana River a kilogram of maize was retailing at Kshs 66 which was 57 percent above LTA. Table 6.0: Maize prices, December 2019 Maize Embu Isiolo Baringo Kajiado Tana River Baringo Makueni Kwale Prices Kilifi Garissa Marsabit Turkana Lamu Wajir Tharaka Mandera Laikipia Makueni Wajir Narok Embu Kajiado Marsabit Mandera Meru Nyeri Laikipia Kitui Turkana Taita Taveta Nyeri Samburu Garissa West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Kwale Isiolo Kilifi Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Meru West Pokot Lamu Tana River Kitui Access to water Table 7 shows the trend in distances walked by households to access water. Return distances to water for households have generally reduced in all the 23 ASAL counties. The positive trend was attributed to the impact of the enhanced rainfall received during the October - December season that has recharged water pans, dams, natural ponds and other surface water sources with adequate water hence improving water access for both domestic and livestock use, to a great extent. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, December 2019 Distance from Kwale Kajiado Baringo, Isiolo, Kitui, Kwale, Embu Baringo households to Garissa Kilifi Kitui, Samburu, (Mbeere), Kajiado, Lamu main water Laikipia, Lamu, Tana Kilifi, Laikipia, Mandera sources River, Makueni, Makueni, Meru Samburu Mandera, Marsabit, (Meru North), Narok, Taita Taveta West Pokot, Meru Wajir, Nyeri (Kieni), Turkana (Meru North), Narok, Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Nyeri (Kieni), Taita (Tharaka), Tana Taveta, Turkana, River, Garissa, Wajir, Tharaka Nithi Isiolo, Marsabit (Tharaka), Embu (Mbeere) In all the ASAL counties, largely as a result of the recharge of most water sources, the trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources have decreased or remained unchanged in December. Similarly, the recorded trekking distances for the month under review were significantly lower than the five year average distances walked by livestock to reach water points for the period. For instance, the average distance to water sources from grazing areas, in Isiolo County decreased by a margin of 33 percent from 1.5 km in November to 1 km in December. In Mandera, average trekking distance from the main water sources to grazing areas for livestock decreased from 5 km in November to 3 km in December and was significantly lower than the five year average distances for the period by 75 percent and in Kitui, average return distances from grazing areas to watering points declined by 30 percent to stand at 2.6 km in December from 3.7 km in November which is also below the long term mean of 3.9 km by 33 percent. The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 8. Terms of trade Table 9 shows the trend in the terms of trade (ToT) in ASAL counties. Overall, in about 70 percent of the counties, livestock keepers were able to purchase additional quantities of maize from the sale of a goat in the month of December compared to the previous month. The increase in ToT was attributed to a rise in goat prices as a result of greater demand for goats during the festival season and the good body condition of goats. For example, in Marsabit County a household could buy 102 kg of maize from the sale of one goat compared to 82 kg in November. The amount of maize that could be purchased by households in Marsabit was 23 percent higher than the three year average for the month. In Wajir, proceeds from the sale of a goat could purchase 72 kg of maize compared to 63 kg in November an increase by 14 percent while in Narok County households could currently purchase 86 kg of maize which when compared with the 2016 - 2018 LTA of 63 kg translates to an additional 23 kg maize. However, in Baringo, the terms of trade exhibited a downward trend in December because the proceeds from the sale of a goat could purchase 66 kg of maize in December compared with 70 kg in November. Similarly, in Lamu County the ToT for December decreased by 29 percent from 102 kg of maize in November to 72 kg in December. The decrease in the ToT in these counties was attributed to a fall in goat prices while the price of maize increased. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, December 2019 Terms of trade Garissa Baringo Kitui Mandera Isiolo Tana River Baringo (ToT) Marsabit Embu Kwale Makueni Kwale Kajiado Lamu Turkana Isiolo Laikipia Samburu Meru Kilifi Wajir Kilifi Meru Turkana Wajir Kitui Narok Makueni Lamu Laikipia Embu Narok Kajiado West Pokot Mandera Garissa Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Tana River Nyeri West Pokot Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Health and nutrition Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. Generally, the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition by mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) of less than 135 mm across the ASAL counties is improving or stable implying that the prevalence of malnutrition among children aged 6 59 months has reduced in comparison with last month. In addition, average MUAC rate in 15 counties is either close to the long term average (LTA) or has fallen below LTA indicating that the nutritional status of children aged below five years in these counties is currently better than would be expected at this time of the year. Improvement in the nutritional status among the under-fives was attributed to increase in milk consumption at the household level, favourable terms of trade and enhanced dietary diversity across the ASAL counties. However, eight counties: Tana River, Kwale, Mandera, Kitui, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Wajir, Meru (Meru North) and Lamu reported a higher percentage of children at risk of malnutrition than the December long term mean. The most likely cause of malnutrition in these counties could be poor infant and young children feeding practices, inadequate food intake, poor dietary diversity and disease incidences. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), December 2019 MUAC Kitui Nyeri Embu (Mbeere) Baringo Embu Meru Narok Kwale Garissa Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Nyeri Lamu Samburu West Pokot Kajiado Makueni Turkana Mandera Turkana Makueni Kilifi Marsabit Meru Marsabit Kitui Kwale Wajir Baringo Lamu Mandera Tana River Laikipia Samburu Wajir Tharaka Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Narok Tana River Kilifi West Pokot Isiolo Taita Taveta Laikipia 1.2 Drought phase classification Currently all the 23 ASAL counties are categorized in the normal drought phase, compared with 21 counties in the normal phase and two in recovery in November 2019. The improving trend is attributed to the above average rainfall performance observed during the month of December. Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, December 2019 Marsabit, Tana River, Wajir, Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, T haraka Nithi (Tharaka) Embu (Mbeere), Kilifi, Makueni, Mandera Lamu, Nyeri (Kieni), 2.0 Projected food security situation According to weather outlook for January 2020 from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), most ASAL areas are expected to receive occasional rainfall during the first half of January. The continuation of the rains into January is likely to impact positively on both water and forage availability and accessibility, hence will further enhance improvement in livestock condition and productivity. Increased availability of milk and other food commodities is likely to support reduction in prevalence of malnutrition in children. Market operations are likely to remain vibrant with maize prices projected to remain stable. Consequently, terms of trade are likely to remain favourable supporting access to staple food commodities for households in the next month. 3.0 Recommendations Agriculture Sector Urgent action required to enhance surveillance and control operations against invasion of desert locusts and fall army worms Post-harvest management training for farmers and agro pastoralists who are set to harvest the short rain season crop Livestock Sector Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Promote pasture establishment and conservation including deferred grazing management and participatory rangeland management. Intensify efforts towards establishment of strategic hay reserves and stock piling of hay so as to promote availability of livestock feeds for utilization during the dry seasonperiods of drought. Water Sector Promotion of water harvesting and storage. Rehabilitation of water catchments, repair and maintenance of water points. Health and Nutrition Sector Provision of health education to communities on hygiene and sanitation and expansion of health and nutrition interventions to cover areas that have reported high disease and malnutrition cases. Sensitization on treatment of drinking water as most households are accessing water from unprotected sources Support Vitamin A supplementation and de-worming programmes Education Sector Promotion of water harvesting, storage and management in schools. Enhance Home Grown School Meals Programmes (HGSMP) in schools. Peace Building and Conflict Management Peace building and conflict management initiatives. Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) as at 30thDecember 2019 BARINGO County 80.11 86.29 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good Central 85 83.91 performance of the 2019 short rains. Eldama 75.17 75.15 Mogotio 82.57 91.3 North 77.06 80.15 South 82.35 86.31 Tiaty 79.99 89.9 MANDERA County 73.23 90.4 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good Banissa 60.85 86.89 performance of the 2019 short rains. M East 75.14 85.37 Lafey 75.03 90.56 M North 66.53 92.73 M South 80.56 91.35 M West 78.15 90.42 TURKANA County 76.11 90.48 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good T Central 79.1 91.13 performance of the 2019 short rains. T. East 62.46 71.2 T. Loima 82.87 108.15 T. North 71.94 85.7 T. South 66.72 84.41 T. West 91.27 102.6 MARSABIT County 60.81 82.13 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good Laisaimis 61.27 86.43 performance of the 2019 short rains. Moyale 67.29 89.84 N. Horr 57.79 76.71 Saku 81.2 101.15 WAJIR County 60.65 78.82 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good W East 83.51 94.32 performance of the 2019 short rains. Significant improvement observed during month of December 2019. W. Eldas 62.53 75.18 W. North 87.14 95.64 W. South 43.53 68.44 W. Tarbaj 83.2 92.03 W West 37.78 67.41 SAMBURU County 54.98 74.9 S. East 48.3 72.4 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good S. North 58.56 76.79 S. West 70.01 78.64 COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 Colour VCI values Drought Category as at 25th month as (3-month) Nov at 30th 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 2019 Dec 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 2019 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit GARISSA County 54.52 69.73 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good performance of the 2019 short rains. Improvement noted across the sub counties. Balambala 42.28 63.11 Daadab 37.52 57.85 Fafi 67.06 75.85 Ijara 69.22 83.06 Lagdera 30.23 55.32 Dujis 74.82 72.52 ISIOLO County 42.49 70.41 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good I. North 43.32 73.87 performance of the 2019 short rains. Significant improvement noted across the sub counties. I. South 41.22 65.11 TANA County 60.49 81.27 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good RIVER Bura 48.63 65.61 performance of the 2019 short rains. Significant improvement noted across the sub counties Galole 60.65 82.24 Garsen 70.46 93.95 KAJIADO County 64.96 81.8 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good K. Central 59.31 76.63 K. East 74.69 85.33 K. North 60.55 63.43 K. South 69.83 93.99 K. West 60.1 73.72 LAIKIPIA County 75.6 80.93 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good L. East 74.32 84.28 L. North 71.7 81.05 L. West 83.53 79.11 THARAKA County 47.16 63.02 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good NITHI performance of the 2019 short rains. Chuka 61.59 69.96 Maara 57.46 62.23 Tharaka 38..43 60.65 WEST County 78.63 84.79 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good POKOT performance of the 2019 short rains. Kacheliba 79.44 85.28 Kapenguria 85.39 88.1 Pokot South 77.46 84.09 Sigor 72.12 81.52 EMBU County 67.33 77.89 Manyatta 54.72 56.73 Mbeere North 67.28 77.31 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good Mbeere South 72.89 87.25 performance of the 2019 short rains. Runyenjes 60.95 68.24 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT KITUI County 50.6 71.29 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good Kitui Central 81.39 88.81 Kitui East 51.91 72 Mwingi Central 57.9 78.45 Mwingi North 50.1 67.26 Mwingi West 77.51 89.18 Kitui Rural 74.61 90.11 Kitui South 38.63 64 Kitui West 82.59 92.81 County 76.36 91.94 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good MAKUENI performance of the 2019 short rains.. Kaiti 83.59 100.66 Kibwezi East 56.64 75.45 Kibwezi West 75.05 89.91 Kilome 91.77 105.15 Makueni 90.63 106.77 Mbooni 87.16 97.03 County 61.77 74.07 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good MERU Buuri 69.14 70.34 Central Imenti 62.04 68.34 Igembe Central 62.88 81.56 Igembe North 62.27 81.39 Igembe South 59.51 80.34 North Imenti 67.17 68.28 South Imenti 61.03 62.1 Tigania East 56.46 72.3 Tigania West 61.46 74.78 County 66.79 70 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good Kieni 65.93 71.45 Mathira 68.35 61.1 NYERI Mukurweini 75.07 75.5 Town 75.08 82.85 Othaya 61.45 67.96 Tetu 66.06 65.75 KILIFI County 66.91 82.73 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good Ganze 64.57 83.69 Kaloleni 68.44 82.85 Magarini 67.41 85.91 Malindi 59.64 75.27 Kilifi-North 71.39 77.34 Rabai 65.24 78.33 Kilifi-South 75.72 81.52 KWALE County 66.81 85.02 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good Kinango 64.46 86.49 Lungalunga 70.19 88.08 Matuga 69.89 77.03 Msambweni 70.67 73.21 County 76.97 85.53 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good LAMU performance of the 2019 short rains. Lamu East 88.68 80.42 Lamu West 81.03 88.48 TAITA County 77.08 98.4 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good TAVETA Mwatate 71.5 97.07 Taveta 95.94 107.18 Voi 69.96 94.66 Wundanyi 86.42 103.52 County 62.19 72.12 The county and its sub counties is in above normal drought conditions due to good NAROK performance of the 2019 short rains. Narok-East 66.83 84.15 Emurua Dikirr 82.41 86.96 Kilgoris 66.31 68.8 Narok-North 55.56 63.37 Narok-South 62.2 73.69 Narok-West 60.53 70.94 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification