January 2024 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The range of environmental, production, access and utilisation indicators monitored by the national drought early warning system fell within their usual ranges following the good performance of the 2023 short rains season. Consequently, All the 23 counties classified as Arid and Semi-Arid lands (ASALs) were categorised under the Normal phase in January. However, the emergence of other risks associated with the enhanced rainfall such as Rift Valley Fever (RVF) reported in Marsabit and Wajir counties continued to undermine full drought and food security recovery. The functioning of markets, flow of food and other commodities almost stabilised across the ASAL counties during the month under review. However, upsurge of livestock diseases such as RVF, Foot and Mouth Disease, among others, may restrict livestock movements to these markets, thus disrupting functionality. The ongoing multi-sectoral assessment of the impact of the 2023 short rains on food and nutrition security will provide a clearer situation update, including the number of people requiring humanitarian assistance. Figure 1: Drought phase classification in January 2024. 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 January 2024 Rainfall Performance Sunny and dry weather conditions prevailed over most parts of the northern sector except a few areas over Isiolo, Marsabit, Turkana, Kitui, Tana river, Taita taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and West pokot where rainfall was experienced for a few days. The southern sector of the country experienced rainfall that was near to above average except over the Coastal region and parts of the Southeastern lowlands where below average rainfall was recorded. The month was characterized by isolated storms over the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, the Southeastern lowlands, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, South Rift Valley, the South Coast (Kwale) and Northeast (Isiolo). Figure 2: January 2024 Rainfall Performance. 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for February 2024 The rainfall outlook for February is as shown in Figure 3. The forecast indicates that the Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo and Garissa counties will experience generally sunny and dry conditions during the month. Temperatures are also likely to be above average over several parts of the country, except parts of the southeastern lowlands, where normal temperatures are expected. Figure 3: February Rainfall Forecast. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Vegetation Condition remains normal across ASAL counties, with dense canopies evident over most areas due to the cumulative rainfall across the October to December season. Consequently, all the counties presented normal vegetation greenness, thus stable vegetation condition as shown in Figure 4. December 2023 January 2024 Figure 4: Comparison of vegetation condition in December 2023 and January 2024. Table 1 provides a summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties (disaggregated by sub-county) as at the end of January 2024. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) Moderate (0) (0) Normal (0) (6) Vegetation Baringo (Mogotio) Greenness Turkana:(Turkana East,Central and North) Garissa (Balambala, Township) Above-normal (20) (109) Vegetation Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Embu: (Manyatta Mbeere North Mbeere South, Greenness Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Runyenjes) Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado: (Kajiado Central, Kajiado East, Kajiado North, West Pokot, Narok, Mandera, Kajiado South, Kajiado West) Marsabit, Samburu,Tana River, Kilifi: (Ganze,Kaloleni,Kilifi North,Kilifi South, Magarini, Turkana, Wajir Malindi, Rabai) Kitui: (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui Rural, Kitui South, Kitui West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West) Kwale: (Kinango, Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia: (Laikipia East, Laikipia North, Laikipia West) Lamu: (Lamu East,Lamu West) Makueni:(Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni) Meru: (Buuri,Central Imenti,Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti,Tigania East,Tigania West) Nyeri:(Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, NyeriTown, Othaya, Tetu) Taita Taveta: (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi), Tharaka Natha: (ChukaIgambangombe, Maara, Tharaka). West Pokot: (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, Pokot South, Sigor), Narok: (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok East, Narok North, Narok South, Narok West). Mandera:(Lafey, Mandera North, Banissa, Mandera West, Mandera South, Mandera East). Marsabit: (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku). Samburu:(Samburu East, Samburu North, Samburu West) Tana River: (Bura, Galole, Garsen). Turkana:(Turkana South, Loima,T urkana West). Wajir:(Tarbaj, Wajir North, Wajir South, Wajir West, Eldas, Wajir East) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally good to fair over the reference period. Approximately 78 of the ASAL counties reported good condition of pasture and 22 reported fair while 91 good browse condition and 9 reported fair (Table 2) due to the regeneration that was driven by the rainfall received during the previous month. The observed fair condition could be attributed to presence of invasive species such as Cossus Rotundia (Raraiti) that smothered the natural regeneration of the palatable species in regions such as Samburu and parts of Marsabit, heat effect in January and heavy flooding in grazing lands. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition Pasture Browse Poor Fair Good Poor Fair Good Baringo Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Tana River Baringo,Garissa, Isiolo,Mandera Tana River Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana Marsabit,Samburu, Wajir, Embu, Turkana Wajir, Embu, Kajiado, Kajiado,Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipa, Narok Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri West Pokot Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Nyeri, Taita West Pokot 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Livestock body condition for all species was generally good across ASAL counties, with 58 reporting good body condition and 22 fair body condition for cattle. 96 reported good condition for goat and sheep while 4 reported fair. The positive trend was due to availability of abundant pasture and access to water within shorter distances. The observed livestock body across January was normal to above normal compared to the long term mean. Table 3: Livestock body condition Cattle GoatsSheep Poo Fair Good Poor Fair Good Turkana, Kitui Baringo, Garissa Nyeri Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Makueni, Narok Isiolo, Mandera Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu West Pokot Marsabit, Wajir Tana River, Wajir, Turkana, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Narok, Embu Tana River, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Embu, Kajiado, Laikipai, Lamu, Makueni Kilifi, Kwale, Meru, West Pokot, Kilifi Laikipai, Lamu, Meru, Narok, Taita 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production remained stable compared to the previous month, with most of the arid counties reporting below milk production compared to long term average. This is attributed to low tropical units following livestock mortality experienced during the previous failed seasons. During the period under review, Samburu reported the lowest average milk production at 0.4 litres from the sampled households in Arid counties, while Embu reported the lowest average milk production at 0.6 litres among semi-arid counties. Table 4: Milk production Isiolo, Nyeri, Embu Garissa, Marsabit Baringo, Isiolo Samburu, Tana Mandera,Turkana Laikipia Samburu, Tana Mandera, Wajir River, Embu, Wajir, Narok, Meru River, Kilifi, Kitui Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Baringo, Kajiado, Kwale, Taita Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta, Lamu, Makueni, Taveta, Tharaka Narok, Nyeri Garissa, Marsabit, Nithi, West Pokot Turkana, Tharaka 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Outbreak of sheep and goat pox and suspected foot and mouth disease was reported in Garissa, Kajiado (Mile 46 and Ewuaso Kendang) and Narok (Siana, Kilgoris Central, Naroosura and Nkareta Wards in Narok West, Transmara West, Narok South and Narok North Sub- Counties respectively). Upsurge of listeriosis (circling) disease in goats was reported in Waso Ward, Samburu County while outbreak of Rift Valley Fever was reported in Marsabit and Wajir with 52 of the 275 samples tested returning a positive for RVF in Wajir. In Mandera, cases of camel deaths were reported in Banissa and Lafey but the cause of death was yet to be ascertained. For large stock, cases of tsetse flies have been noted, especially in the plains of North Horr in Marsabit while rabies outbreak was also reported in Tigo, Marsabit County. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Cattle prices remained stable across ASAL counties compared to the previous month. The observed low prices were occasioned by the low demand due to increased supply of the species to the markets as farmers sought to raise funds to meet beginning of year academic needs and other household expenses. Notably, the stable-to-improving trend in the other areas was driven by good cattle body condition that enabled pastoralists to earn more. Notably, the recorded prices across all counties were above the corresponding usual prices for the period, with good body condition, vibrant market participation, scarcity in markets due to hoarding and low volumes, and high demand for cattle meat being cited as factors sustaining the above normal prices. Table 5: Cattle prices Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Taita Taveta - Garissa, Baringo, Mandera, Tana - Mandera, Marsabit, Tana River, Samburu Marsabit, Nyeri River, Turkana Turkana, Wajir Embu,Narok Embu, Narok, Kajiado Wajir ,Taita Taveta, Kajiado Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Isiolo, Samburu, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru Laikipia, Lamu, West Pokot Tharaka Nithi,Nyeri Makueni, Meru Tharaka Nithi 1.3.6 Goat Prices Goat prices remained stable across ASAL counties as result of good livestock body condition. Oversupply in markets caused by the need to raise school fees and to meet household needs had negative effect on prices. The favorable trend in these countries was impacted by high export demand and browse availability. The prevalent market price of goats across all counties was above usual rates for the period, which could be attributed to persistent improvement in the body condition of goat following good rains. Table 6: Goat prices Above LTA At Below Improving Stable Worsening LTA LTA Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera Kitu Baringo, Garissa, Tana River Isiolo, Turkana Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River Nyeri Marsabit, Wajir, Embu, Mandera Kwale, Meru Turkana, Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Samburu Narok, Taita Kilifi ,West Pokot, Kwale,Laikipia Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Nyeri Taveta, Tharaka Lamu,Makueni, Meru,Narok Nithi, West Pokot Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi 1.4 Crop Production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production are usually carried out in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture, South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along riverine areas of River Tana, Daua, Turkwel, among others. Table 7 illustrates the crop production situation across the ASAL counties. Table 7: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production South East Kitui Majority of crops were at harvesting stage and in good-fair condition. Marginal However, farmers are anticipating below average harvests due to Agriculture withering, crop pests and flash floods. In addition to rain-fed cropping, farmers along main rivers (Athi, Tana, Tiva and Thua) had horticultural crops under irrigation at various stages of development. Makueni Farmers along the flooded rivers and upper zones of the county were counting crop losses due to water logging. The most affected areas were Kawese village in Kasikeu ward of Kilome Sub-county and KakoWaia Ward in Mbooni Sub-county where maize crop had stunted growth due to sandy soil leaching nutrients, affecting approximately 132 Ha and 272 families. Meru Maize crop is good in most parts of the county and currently at the grain filling stage nearing maturity. Near normal harvest is expected in the last week of February in most areas, except the Rainfed Cropping Zones of Tigania East and parts of the Agropastoral Zone such as Lothera, Kandebene and Nkiluthu in Tigania West, Ithata and Kamweline in Igembe North, and lower parts of Igembe Central where beans crop was destroyed by flooding. The ongoing harvests of beans are gradually improving household food availability while reducing market reliance, while agricultural labour opportunities are improving household access to income and purchasing power. Agropastoral Baringo Infestation of Fall Armyworms was observed in Baringo Central and Eldama Ravine sub-counties, leading to reduced yield. 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize prices remained stable as harvesting was ongoing and are expected to reduce after harvesting. Notably, the prevailing prices over January were above the respective long-term average for Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu and Tana River, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, West Pokot, Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta, Nyeri and Narok ,which could be attributed to minimal production during the earlier successive failed rainfall seasons, high transport costs due to high fuel prices and increased demand for the commodity. Table 8: Maize prices Above LTA Atclose Below Improving Stable Worsening to LTA LTA Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Kwale Kajiado Baringo, Isiolo Mandera, Tana Kitui,Taita Taveta Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Narok Turkana, Wajir River, Samburu, West Pokot, Turkana, Wajir, Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Garissa, Marsabit Embu, Lamu, Kajiado, Meru, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, West Makueni, Narok, Laikipia Pokot,Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta, Nyeri, Tharaka Nyeri, Narok Nithi, Kilifi, Kwale 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distance to water source for household remained stable compared to the previous month. Mandera recorded the longest trekking distance for arid counties at 8.6Km and Samburu the shortest at 5.6km return distance. Tharaka Nithi recorded the longest distance at 4.3 Km for semi-arid counties while Nyeri recording the lowest at 1.2 Km among semi-arid counties. Lower than normal trekking distances were boosted by recharge of water facilities over the October to December short rains period, coupled with erratic showers experienced in January, albeit in select areas. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources Isiolo Baringo, Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit Kwale, Baringo, Garissa, Mandera, - Turkana Wajir, Marsabit, Samburu Kajiado Lamu Turkana, , Samburu, Wajir, Taita Taveta Tana River, Embu, Kajiado Narok Tana River, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kitui Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia Taita Taveta Laikipia, Makueni, Meru, Tharaka Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nithi, West Pokot, Embu, Nyeri Narok, Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trekking distance covered by livestock from grazing areas to water points remained stable across ASAL counties. The positive trend was attributable to the enhanced short rains. Consequently, among the arid counties, the distance averaged 7.3 Kms compared to 6.7Kms recorded in December 2023. The longest return trekking distance of 10.8 Kms was reported in Turkana and Mandera, while the shortest distance was recorded in Tana River County at 3.2 Kms. On the other hand, the distance ranged between 1.8 Kms and 4.3 Kms in the semi- arid counties, with the longest distance recorded in Kitui while the shortest was reported in Kilifi. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources Baringo, Narok Garissa, Samburu, Isiolo, Tana River Marsabit Baringo, Garissa Makueni, West Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir Kajiado, Taita Nyeri Isiolo, Samburu Pokot, Turkana Tana River, Embu, Taveta Laikipia Turkana, Wajir Meru, Laikipia Kajiado, Kilifi, Lamu, Kitui, Mandera, Embu, Kwale, Nyeri, Tharaka Kilifi, Lamu, Kitui, Nithi, Taita Taveta Kwale, Meru, Narok, Makueni, Tharaka 1.6 Terms of Trade Stability in the terms of trade was noted across the counties. Among the arid counties, the lowest terms of trade of 40 and 42 was reported in Garissa and Turkana respectively, while Nyeri recorded the lowest of 61 among semi-arid counties. Compared to the long-term average, the terms of trade were favorable. Marsabit County reported the highest terms of trade at 91.8 while Tharaka Nithi returned the highest of 115 among the semi-arid counties. The improved terms of trade are as result of ongoing harvests, which are stablising prices. Table 11: Terms of Trade Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Garissa, Tana Baringo, Marsabit Tana River, Mandera, Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Baringo River, Embu, Garissa, Wajir Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Kilifi, Makueni, Meru, Kajiado, Kilifi, Embu, Kajiado, Lamu, Kwale, Tharaka Nithi, Narok, Tharaka Nithi Nyeri, Taita Taveta Makueni, Meru, Lamu West Pokot Lamu, Taita Taveta West Pokot, Kwale Taita Taveta, Kitui Laikipia 1.7 Health and Nutrition The nutrition situation was on an improving trend in January compared to the previous month in Isiolo, Mandera, Embu, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta and Marsabit. This was attributed to ongoing nutrition interventions delivered through health outreaches and better food consumption following improved access to nutritious food commodities in season such as fresh milk, pulses and vegetables. However, based on Middle-Upper-Arm- Circumference (MUAC) rates, Garissa, Tana River, Kitui, Kwale and Makueni remained on Alert. The reported malnutrition rates remained below the seasonal ranges in approximately 60 of the ASAL counties but outside the usual ranges in roughly 26 of the counties. The negative situation could be attributed to increase in cases of epidemics such as cholera, diarrhea, among other ailments, throughout the short rains season. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (based MUAC measurements) Garissa Baringo Isiolo, Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Marsabit , Wajir, Baringo Garissa, Samburu Tana River, Meru Samburu, Wajir, Mandera Isiolo, Embu, Kitui, Kajiado, Kilifi, Turkana, Tana Kitui, Kwale Narok Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia Nyeri, Laikipia Narok River, Kwale Makueni Nyeri Lamu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Lamu, Meru Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Taita Taveta Nithi, West Pokot 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase with a stable to improving trend, while the trend in a few counties is Worsening Trend as shown in the Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Marsabit Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Mandera, Tana River, Wajir, Turkana, Samburu,Embu,Kilifi,Kitui,Kwale,Laikipia,Lamu,Makueni,Mer West Pokot u,Narok,Nyeri,Taita Taveta,Tharaka Nithi Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations Table 14: Recommended Priority Interventions No. Sector Intervention 1. Coordination Enhance coordination at both national and county levels to monitor any effects of the low precipitation situation given the likely dry conditions in February and March 2024 (before onset of March-May season). Sensitisation of stakeholders on livelihood support actions to prepare communities for improved conditions during upcoming long rains season. 2. Food and Provision of regular food assistance and unconditional cash transfers safety nets targeting the vulnerable groups. Implementation of deliberate actions to create and sustain income generating activities for vulnerable households to set them on a path to resilience. 3. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities damaged by El Nino rains. Support for point of use water treatment for households faced with water insecurity. Support for enhanced water harvesting and storage. 4. Livestock Strengthen disease surveillance and control to facilitate migration and sector access to markets. Promote routine supportive livestock health initiatives including vaccinations and control of (endo and ecto) parasites. Support restocking programmes aimed at herd redistribution. Promote pasture seed collection in readiness for reseeding during MAM 2024. 5. Health and Support health and nutrition surveillance and interventions. nutrition Promote health seeking behaviour through community health strategy. sector Promote baby-friendly initiatives through mother support groups and community health strategy. 6. Peace and Support intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use security agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone sector counties. Strengthen community readiness systems for peaceful access of resources. 7. Education Support initiatives to enhance education enrolment, transition and sector attendance. Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Promote of school feeding programmes in schools. Annex 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 31st January 2024 County Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 VCI values (3- Colour Drought Category month as month as month) at 3Ist at 31st Vegetation greenness Dec Jan above normal 2023 2024 Normal vegetation 35 - 50 greenness Moderate vegetation 20 - 35 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation Baringo County 62.35 58.21 Above normal vegetation greeness remained the same Central 64.2 71.16 across all sub-counties except Mogotio that recorded normal vegetation greenness. North 67.05 58.5 South 65.01 59.5 Ravine 52.93 63.94 Mogotio 47.29 48.02 Tiaty 65.49 57.25 Mandera County 84.47 89.84 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Lafey 86.16 93.9 remained above normal across all the Sub counties as compared to the previous month. North 87.08 95.2 Banissa 80.6 84.19 West 82.27 85.67 South 87.9 90.68 72.11 80.99 Turkana County 60.9 54.66 Above normal vegetation greenness recorded in January East 40.12 35.03 2024,Except for Turkana East, North and central that showed Normal vegetation greenness as opposed to South 54.15 56.18 previous months. Loima 77.64 73.21 Central 50.47 45.92 West 80.4 68.43 North 55.57 48.29 Marsabit County 83.7 82.75 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Laisamis 84.16 92.78 remained above normal across all the Sub counties Moyale 77.37 90.77 North Horr 84.34 73.78 Saku 96.65 106.34 Wajir County 62.77 80.25 Above normal vegetation greenness was recorded across Tarbaj 76.59 81.37 the sub-counties which is similar to the previous months. North 82.63 92.2 South 57.03 75.41 West 46.92 85.04 Eldas 49.72 70.25 Wajir East 68.13 81.61 Samburu County 65.49 74.6 All the Sub counties reported above normal vegetation East 62.92 77.26 greenness that is similar to the previous month across the County. North 71.27 76.59 West 55.83 56.61 Garissa County 61.21 79.78 Significant improvements noted in January with the Balambala 49.41 77.94 vegetation greenness being above normal across all the sub-counties as opposed to previous month for Township 46.37 81.14 Balambala and Township Sub counties reported normal Ijara 74.14 79.75 v egetation greenness in Deecember 23. Fafi 63.06 83.58 Lagdera 57.01 82.12 Dadaab 55.17 70.57 Isiolo County 67.15 90.96 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness North 65.63 93.74 remained above normal across all the Sub counties South 69.47 86.71 Tana River County 58.99 78.53 Notable improvement in the condition of vegetation was Bura 51.38 74.5 witnessed in December with the vegetation greenness Galole 58.16 76.07 being above normal. Bura Sub county recorded a significant improvement from the moderate vegetation Garsen 65.97 83.49 deficit reported in November. Kajiado County 64.4 81.05 The county reported above normal vegetation greenness Central 59.72 79.16 with a significant improvement being witnessed across the sub-couties,similar to the previous months. East 59.61 86.31 North 64.33 75.03 South 61.43 88.06 West 71.51 74.31 Embu County 70.62 80.13 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Manyatta 70.92 74.21 remained above normal across all the Sub counties Mbeere North 75.84 84.3 Mbeere South 67.23 80.01 Runyenjes 71.14 77.82 Kitui County 57.79 74.09 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across Central 63.59 74.17 all the Sub counties,Similar to the previous month period East 60.48 73.89 Rural 64.73 80.32 South 58.01 76.92 West 58.54 73.33 Mwingi Central 53.41 71.1 Mwingi North 55.17 67.79 Mwingi West 66.23 81.35 Makueni County 62.72 79.77 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Kaiti 76.26 81.57 remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Significant improvement noted across the county.. Kibwezi East 53.73 76.51 Kibwezi West 63.69 80.78 Kilome 64.37 83.12 Makueni 67.22 82.07 Mbooni 67.62 78.12 Meru County 67.23 74.02 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Buuri 65.94 73.78 remained above normal across all the Sub counties Central-Imenti 65.59 74.08 Igembe Central 70.82 78.6 Igembe North 76.87 83.82 Igembe South 66.35 75.76 North Imenti 58.54 53.3 South Imenti 63.59 76.08 Tigania East 64.48 66.84 Tigania West 60.44 61.64 Nyeri County 62.9 61.83 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Kieni 63.65 64.12 remained above normal across all the Sub counties with significant improvement Mathira 59.27 55.57 Mukurweini 63.33 64.48 Nyeri Town 59.13 66.73 Othaya 67.98 59.95 Tetu 60.24 56.06 Kilifi County 54.64 74.53 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across Ganze 53.73 77.09 all the Sub counties,this is the same to the previous month Kaloleni 61.48 76.92 Kilifi North 57.64 68.46 Kilifi South 52.43 65.42 Magarini 53.84 74.85 Malindi 56.16 70.73 Rabai 58.55 69.6 Kwale County 65.67 78.06 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Kinango 62.45 79.37 remained above normal across all the Sub counties Lunga 73.94 80.01 Matuga 63.46 71.09 Msambweni 69.99 70.92 Lamu County 76.63 80.44 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Lamu East 69.15 79.03 remained above normal across all the Sub counties Lamu West 80.96 81.25 Taita Taveta County 51.44 82.11 Above normal vegetation greenness was recorded across Mwatate 47.3 79.74 the sub-counties as opposed to previous months Taveta 46.75 84.74 Voi 54.14 81.44 Wundanyi 56.89 85.18 Narok County 73.36 77.55 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across Emurua Dikirr 91.63 92.93 all the Sub counties. Kilgoris 78 76.55 Narok East 62.44 79.25 Narok North 58.95 64.01 Narok South 72 77.09 Narok West 82.96 83.63 West Pokot County 64.29 55.38 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Kacheliba 59.81 50.37 remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Kapenguria 67.14 55.97 Pokot South 68.85 64.03 Sigor 67.34 58.9 Tharaka Nithi County 58.25 69.53 vegetation greenness remained above normal across all Chuka 71.78 80.42 the Sub counties; with improvement being noted in across the county. Maara 62.45 76.53 Tharaka 51.81 63.2 Laikipia County 62.22 74.16 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across Laikipia East 71.98 79.06 all the Sub counties. Laikipia North 63.25 78.21 Laikipia West 55.57 64.21 Annex 2: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system. Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). 1. NORMAL indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental indicators indicators return to fluctuate outside seasonal norms expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are outside production indicators normal ranges fluctuate outside seasonal ranges Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification