May 2024 1. Drought Situation Overview All the counties were categorized under the Normal phase based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as result of good performance of MAM 2024 rainfall season. The risks associated with wet condition are equally subsiding across the ASAL counties. The situation is expected to continue in normal phase following the cessation of MAM long rains. However, situation is projected to deteriorate during JJA season, in some Arid counties of ASAL with exception of the western parts of the ASAL counties including; Samburu, Turkana, West Pokot and Baringo which usually Fig 1: Drough t Phase Classification, May 2024 receives JJA rains. Monitoring of the population flagged out in February food security assessment, Short Rains Assessment (SRA) 2023, number of people in need of assistance stands at 1.9 million. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 847,932 children aged 6 to 59 months and 124,359 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished acutely and in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of May 2024. 1.1 Observed drought indicators 1.1.1 May 2024 Rainfall Performance The May 2024 monthly rainfall analysis indicates that several parts of ASAL counties received above average rainfall. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received high amounts of rainfall ranging between 125mm to 300mm. Wajir county received very low amount of rainfall ranging between 25mm 125mm. Pastoral North west counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu recorded rainfall amounts ranging between 75mm 300mm. Turkana County received low amounts of rainfall up to 25mm 50mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture Figure 2. May 2024 Rainfall Performance counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties reported early rainfall onset, received rainfall amounts ranging between 125mm to 300mm. Similar situation was noted with Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Lamu received amounts of rainfall ranging between 25mm to 76mm. Taita Taveta county received the least amount of rainfall within the coastal cluster as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 June 2024 rainfall outlook Rainfall outlook for the month of June 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Agro Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia; The coastal marginal agriculture counties includes; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are forecasted to remain mainly dry with sunny conditions. Turkana, West Pokot, Baringo, Narok parts Figure 3. June 2024 Rainfall forecast of Samburu and Laikipia are forecasted to receive above normal JJA rainfall. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in May 2024 with that of the previous month of April 2024. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of May remained the same when compared to that of the month of April. April 2024 May 2024 Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of April and May 2024 The month of May 2024 indicated sustained improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous March, April and May months 2024. Stability in vegetation is due to the ongoing MAM 2024 long rains season, which was normal in most parts of ASAL counties. None of the counties recorded either extreme, severe or moderate vegetation deficit. The following one (1) county; Baringo recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following twenty-one (22) counties including; Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Turkana, Tana River, Garissa and Kilifi, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Lamu, West Pokot and Kwale recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in May 2024 indicates further improvement from the previous month, April 2024 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of May 2024 is provided in Figure 3. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) Moderate (0) (0) Normal (1) (6) vegetation Baringo Baringo (South, Mogotio, Tiaty), Laikipia (West), Turkana greenness (East) West Pokot (Kacheliba) Above (22) (107) normal Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Vegetation Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kajiado (Central, East, North, South, West), Kilifi (Ganze, greenness Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Kaloleni, North, South, Magarini, Malindi, Rabai), Kitui Makueni, Mandera, (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, North, Mwingi West), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Msambweni), Laikipia (East, North), Lamu (East, West), Tana River, Tharaka Makueni, (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Nithi, Wajir, Narok, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Turkana and West Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Pokot Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi),Tharaka Natha (ChukaIgamba ngombe, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot(Pokot South, Sigor, Kapenguria), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North, South, West), Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Samburu:( East, North, West),Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Turkana:( South, Central, North, Loima, West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Isiolo (North, South), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara, Daadab, Township) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition During the period under review, forage condition was generally good in all the counties (Table 2). However, some parts of Garissa county reported fair forage, which is attributable to Tree locust infestation. Overall, the observed good forage situation in terms of quantity and quality was as a consequence of the enhanced rainfall recorded throughout the March to May Long Rains period in all the ASAL counties. Stability in pasture and browse is forecasted across June due to the timely to late cessation of the rainfall witnessed in these regions. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, May 2024 Pasture Browse Makueni, Narok, Kilifi, Makueni, Narok, Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Kilifi, Isiolo, Meru, Nyeri Taita Kwale, Kitui, Meru, Taveta, Kajiado, Lamu, Garissa Samburu, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, West Wajir, Pokot Tana River, Baringo, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Mandera, Laikipia, Lamu, Samburu, Turkana, Marsabit, Garissa, West Pokot, Wajir, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Baringo, Embu, Turkana, Mandera, 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition for both cattle and goats, was generally good to very good based on the pictorial evaluation tool evidence. Majority of the counties, reported remarkable improvement in the body condition for all livestock species across the Long Rains period. Consequently, about 82 and 91 percent of the counties recorded the condition as being good for cattle and goats accordingly (Table 2). Forage and water resources availability within shorter trekking distances, were cited as the drivers of the observed situation. However, roughly 18 and 9 percent of the areas reported fair for the cattle and small stock and that could be attributed to constraints in accessing quality forage whose quantity was dwindling due to locust infestation in the affected areas. Noteworthy, the observed livestock body condition in May exceeded the one usually witnessed over the month. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, May 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Turkana Makueni, Narok Lamu Makueni, Narok, Lamu Kilifi, Marsabit, Meru Tana River Kilifi Tana River Isiolo, Kwale, Embu Isiolo, Kwale, Kitui, Garissa Kitui, Samburu Meru, West Pokot West Pokot, Wajir Taita Taveta, Baringo, Taita Taveta Kajiado, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri Turkana Mandera, Laikipia Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado Baringo Marsabit, Garissa, Wajir, Laikipia, Nyeri 1.3.3 Milk production Significant improvement in the production level was recorded in 70 percent of the ASAL counties with the remaining 30 percent reporting a stable trend (Table 4). Availability of adequate forage and water within shorter trekking distances, ongoing calving and kidding coupled with improved livestock body condition was attributed to the recorded trend. The prevailing yield level reported in May was above the normal level for the period in about 61 percent of the counties, at par with the seasonal range in 17 percent of the areas and below the LTA in 22 percent of the ASAL regions. Samburu recorded the lowest average milk production of 0.7 litres among the Arid counties while Embu reported the lowest average of 0.9 litres among the Semi-Arid Counties. Table 4.0: Milk production, May 2024 Baringo, Isiolo Embu Marsabit Baringo, Kwale Isiolo, Turkana, Wajir Kitui Tana River Marsabit, Lamu Kilifi Kilifi, Garissa Samburu Lamu Samburu, Meru Turkana Kwale, Kajiado Makueni Narok, Laikipia Kajiado Laikipia Taita Taveta Tana River Makueni, Meru, Mandera West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Taita- Narok, Nyeri Garissa, Nyeri Taveta Tharaka Nithi Mandera, Embu Kitui Wajir, West Pokot 1.3.4. Livestock diseases During the month under review, suspected cases of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in cattle was reported in Siana, Naroosura and Nkareta Wards in Narok, Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zone of Lamu, Igembe North and Tigania West in Meru. Confirmed cases of lumpy skin disease (LSD) was recorded in Matanya, Solio and Nyahururu in Laikipia while an outbreak of the same affecting cattle was reported around Kibish in Turkana County. Alarming occurrences of camel abortions was witnessed in Maalimin and Dujis in Garissa with an upsurge of the same being noted in Marsabit and Mandera where epidemiological investigations were ongoing. Reports of cattle deaths attributed to suspected vector-borne illnesses emerged from Nanighi in Garissa with trypanosomiasis, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis suspected to be contributing to the mortalities witnessed. Additionally, cases of foot rot disease were reported in areas of Kathangachini and Gatunga Wards in Tharaka Nithi. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Stable trend in the market price of cattle was reported in approximately 78 percent of the counties over the period under review (Table 5). The positive trend reported in majority of the areas, was as a result of the improved cattle body condition hence a better market return value. Notably, decline in price was recorded in five counties constituting 22 percent of the ASALs including Kitui, Kajiado, Garissa, Embu and Kilifi attributed to high traded volumes following the reopening of schools. The reported price in May was above the LTA in all counties except Taita Taveta where it was at par with the normal price for the period. Notable factors driving the observed situation included enhanced availability of pasture across the Long Rains season that sustained the body condition within desirable levels, market deficits in some regions and high demand for meat within external markets. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, May 2024 Baringo, Isiolo, Taita Turkana, Samburu Marsabit, Makueni Taveta Meru Makueni Embu Marsabit, Baringo, West Pokot, Kilifi, Kajiado Samburu Isiolo, Wajir, Lamu Kitui, Garissa Turkana, Wajir, Kwale, Narok Narok, Taita Kajiado, Kilifi, Taveta Kitui Tharaka Kwale, Lamu, Nithi, Meru Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri Nyeri Mandera West Pokot, Tana River Mandera, Embu, Garissa, Tana River 1.3.6 Goat Prices Over the subject reference period, about 61 percent of the counties reported an improving trend while the price in Marsabit, Samburu and Makueni remained relatively unchanged from the previous month. Among the factors driving the positive trend included improved goat body condition occasioned by the availability of palatable browse within sites in close proximity to households and water sources hence reduced trekking distance. On the other hand, about 26 percent of the ASAL counties recorded a negative trend purely driven my market surplus as parents sought to facilitate their children back to school through sale of the most liquid asset (Table 6). Notably, the reported price across all counties in May was above the corresponding long-term average as depicted in table 6. The scenario was basically influenced by the sustained improvement in the body condition throughout the March to May rainfall season with the situation projected to remain similar across June. Table 6.0: Goat prices, May 2024 Baringo, Isiolo, Baringo, Nyeri, Marsabit Isiolo, Embu Mandera Tana River, Lamu, Samburu Wajir, Kitui Marsabit, Laikipia Makueni Tharaka Nithi Samburu, Meru Turkana, Kilifi Mandera Tana River, Kajiado, Kwale Wajir, Laikipia Taita Taveta, Turkana, Meru, Narok Kajiado, Kilifi, West Pokot Kitui, Kwale, Garissa West Pokot Lamu, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Nyeri, Embu 1.4 Crop Production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture, South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas of River Tana, Daua, Turkwel among others. The summary table below illustrates the situation across the ASAL counties. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production SEMA Kitui Main crops planted were mostly at past knee-high stage with their condition being generally good. Makueni Crops were at knee highflowering stage and in fair to good condition while in the Mixed Farming livelihood zone, the crops were at poddingtussling stage. Farmers along the flooded rivers and upper zones of the county were incurring losses due to water logging. Embu maize was at tussling stage while legumes were at the flowering stage in Mixed Farming Zone while in the Marginal mixed farming zone, maize was at grain filling stage with legumes being at podding stage. Agropastoral Kajiado Crops were at maturity and in fair condition with beans mainly in Loitoktok at podding stage while maize had started tussling. Heavy rains resulted to water logging, soil erosion and nutrient leaching on most farms. Fall Army Worm was reported in about 40 percent of the farms with Tuta absoluta reported in about 35 of the farms. Laikipia Weeding and spraying against pests and diseases was ongoing. Crops had been affected by water logging and excessive moisture leading to the leaching of nutrients and reduction in expected yields mostly for beans and potatoes. Maize was at knee high to reproductive stage, beans at weeding to reproductive stage and potatoes at spraying to earthing up stage. Narok Majority of crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zones are at grain fillingtasselling stages with the condition of maize and beans being fair to good. Coast Kilifi Main farming activity ongoing was maize and cassava crops weeding Marginal with few farmers planting while the condition of the crop was poor. Agriculture 1.4.1 Maize prices The price of maize declined in majority (57 percent) of the counties with stable trend being recorded in roughly 30 percent of the counties while Embu, Garissa and Kwale recorded a slight increase in the trading price (Table 8). Increased supplies to the market from external markets and via imports and reduced transportation costs were cited as the major drivers of the price decline while increasing reliance on markets within the marginal agriculture areas where household stocks were dwindling compounded by poor road infrastructure that disrupted distribution in some areas were noted as the factors driving the upward shift in maize price. Comparatively, the prevailing price was below the usual range in about 70 percent of the counties and above in roughly 26 percent of the counties with Turkana returning a price that was at par with the LTA. The noted positive scenario was as a consequence of continuous supply of the commodity to markets, availability of substitute cereals and increased cross-border imports leading to a relatively stable market performance. Table 8.0: Maize prices, May 2024 Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening to LTA Baringo Turkana Marsabit Baringo, Isiolo Wajir, Kitui, Isiolo, Kwale Tana River Nyeri Turkana West Pokot Wajir, Meru Lamu Marsabit, Kajiado Kilifi, Nyeri Makueni, Garissa Kilifi, Tharaka- Nithi, Taita- Taveta Samburu, Makueni, Narok West Pokot Laikipia Taita- Taveta Garissa Tana River, Laikipia Kwale Mandera Lamu, Meru, 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households The distance to household water sources slightly increased but within the normal ranges, with Mandera reporting the longest trekking distance (7.7km) and Isiolo the shortest (1.8Km) among the Arid counties. Lamu recorded the longest distance (5.6km), while Meru reported the shortest (1.4km) among Semi-arid counties. The generally lower-than-normal trekking distances were attributed to water recharge during the March April May rainfall season of 2024. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, May 2024 Lamu, Tana Baringo, Isiolo Baringo, Lamu, Kilifi Wajir River Marsabit, Meru Turkana, Marsabit Wajir Kwale, West Samburu, Nyeri Makueni, Samburu, Garissa Pokot Turkana, Narok Meru, West Narok Mandera Kajiado, Nyeri Pokot, Tana River, Laikipia Kilifi, Kitui Nyeri Embu Makueni Mandera Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Garissa, Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Marsabit, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi Kwale, 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources remained stable across ASAL counties, showing a positive trend due to enhanced short rains. In arid counties, Mandera reported the longest trekking distance at 11 kilometers whereas Isiolo County having the shortest at 2.8 kilometers. In semi-arid counties, Kwale reported the longest and Embu the shortest distances at 4.4km and 2.1. The improved livestock access to water sources is attributed to the successful performance of the current long rains in 2024. The stability and slight increase in distances indicate positive conditions for livestock welfare in ASAL counties. Table 10.0: Distance from Livestock Grazing area to Main Water Sources, May 2024 Narok Kitui Baringo, Isiolo, Baringo, Isiolo Marsabit Kajiado West Pokot Laikipia Marsabit, Samburu Samburu, Turkana, Tana- Narok Kwale Tana River, Turkana, Wajir, Lamu, River, Tharaka- Garissa Makueni Kilifi Nithi. Wajir, Kajiado, Meru, West Pokot, Kitui Garissa Kilifi, Nyeri Mandera Kwale Lamu, Makueni, Nyeri Laikipia Meru, Taita Taveta Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Taita- Taveta 1.6 Terms of trade Terms of trade were stable and favorable across ASAL counties. In arid counties, Turkana reported the lowest terms of trade among Arid while in semi-arid regions, Nyeri recorded the lowest terms of trade. Comparatively, the terms of trade were above normal when measured against the longterm average. The positive shift in terms of trade is attributed to the concluded harvesting activities, which are contributing to price stabilization in the ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, May 2024 Current Status Trend Baringo, Embu, Baringo, Laikipia Isiolo Kitui Wajir Samburu Garissa Meru Isiolo, Kitui, Turkana, Nyeri Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Kilifi, Lamu Kajiado, Narok Garissa Embu Mandera, Kilifi, Lamu Wajir Marsabit Makueni, Samburu, West West Pokot Kwale Pokot Taita Taveta Tana River, Tana River Turkana Kajiado, Kwale, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta, 1.7. Health and nutrition Child malnutrition conditions improved in Baringo, Isiolo, Samburu, Kilifi, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kwale, Embu, Taita Taveta, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi and Laikipia compared to the previous month. This positive trend is a result of ongoing nutrition interventions through health outreaches and improved food consumption, particularly from enhanced access to nutritious items such as fresh milk, pulses, and seasonal vegetables. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), May 2024 Current status Baringo, Kitui Isiolo, Wajir, Baringo, Marsabit Tana River Tana River Kilifi Isiolo Kajiado Lamu Turkana, Lamu Marsabit, Samburu, Makueni Meru Makueni Meru, Kilifi Narok West Pokot Nyeri Turkana, West Garissa Samburu, Wajir Pokot Mandera Embu, Kitui, Narok Kwale, Kajiado, Embu, Kwale Garissa Taita Taveta, Taita Taveta, Laikipia Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi Mandera 2.0 DROUGHT PHASE CLASSIFICATION Based on the environmental and socio-economic range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties were classified to be at the Normal phase with a stable trend in Majority of these areas. However, an improving trend was noted in Isiolo, Samburu and Turkana while a worsening trend was reported in Kilifi and Garissa as illustrated in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, May 2024 Drought status Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Garissa, Kilifi Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Samburu, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 RECOMMENDATIONS Table 14: Priority Recommended Interventions No. Sector Intervention 1. Coordination Enhance coordination at both national and county levels to monitor any effects of the low precipitation situation, given the likely dry conditions in June- September 2024, before onset of OND2024 season. Stakeholders to sensitized on livelihood support actions to prepare communities for improved conditions during MAM 2024. 2. Food and Provision of regular food assistance and unconditional cash safety nets transfers targeting vulnerable groups. Implementation of deliberate actions to create and sustain IGAs for vulnerable households to set them on a path to resilience. 3. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities damaged by El Nino rains; Support for point-of-use water treatment for households faced with water insecurity. Support for enhanced water harvesting and storage. 4. Livestock Strengthening disease surveillance and control to facilitate sector migrations and access to markets. Promote routine supportive livestock health initiatives including vaccinations and control of (endo and ecto) parasites Support restocking programmes aimed at herd redistribution. Promote pasture seed collection in readiness for reseeding during OND 2024. 5. Health and Support health and nutrition surveillance and interventions. nutrition Promote health seeking behaviour through community health sector strategy. Promote baby-friendly initiatives through mother support groups and community health strategy. 6. Peace and Support intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use security sector agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Strengthening community readiness systems for peaceful access of resources. 7. Education Support initiatives to enhance education enrolment, transition and sector attendance. Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Promote home grown solutions to school feeding programmes . Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th May 2024 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month as month as values (3- at 28th at 26th month) Apr May 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 2024 2024 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit 10 Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 49.63 49.63 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in May. 69.63 69.63 52.76 52.76 44.27 44.27 78.53 78.53 Ravine 40.2 40.2 Mogotio 43.93 43.93 Tiaty MANDERA County 77.01 77.01 The county remained stable as compared to previous month of April at above normal vegetation greenness. 71.93 71.93 Lafey 73.8 73.8 56.75 56.75 Banissa 79.53 79.53 98.06 98.06 60.53 60.53 TURKANA County 64.04 64.04 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during 39.19 39.19 54.89 54.89 74.56 74.56 Loima 61.75 61.75 81.27 81.27 64.31 64.31 MARSABIT County 68.75 68.75 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in May which was stable when compared to previous month of 79.12 79.12 April. Laisamis 69.35 69.35 Moyale 61.74 61.74 North Horr 87.21 87.21 WAJIR County 80.7 80.7 The county maintained at above normal vegetation greenness in May, as compared to the previous month of April. 86.82 86.82 Tarbaj 89.17 89.17 75.01 75.01 77.92 77.92 80.05 80.05 Eldas 84.99 84.99 SAMBURU County 74.94 74.94 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 74.88 74.88 81.46 81.46 52.33 52.33 GARISSA County 76.47 76.47 The county remained the same in vegetation greenness at above 69.64 69.64 Balambala 71.56 71.56 Township 90.82 90.82 Ijara 75.3 75.3 81.43 81.43 Lagdera 63.43 63.43 Dadaab ISIOLO County 83 83 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness in April, which was stable when compared to last month. 87.27 87.27 76.48 76.48 TANA County 68.78 68.78 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the RIVER 68.01 68.01 month of May. 62.43 62.43 Galole 73.4 73.4 Garsen KAJIADO County 82.39 82.39 Kajiado county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness in the month of May. 85.88 85.88 82.74 82.74 91.86 91.86 73.95 73.95 86.89 86.89 LAIKIPIA County 55.68 55.68 The county recorded stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. 68.22 68.22 58.96 58.96 43.52 43.52 THARAKA County 64.28 64.28 Th county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the NITHI month under review. 82.85 82.85 Chuka 86.65 86.65 Maara 50.13 50.13 WEST County 84.99 84.99 The county recorded improvement in vegetation greenness in POKOT normal vegetation greenness during the month of May. 52.87 52.87 Kacheliba 44.09 44.09 Kapenguria 54.06 54.06 Pokot south 77.04 77.04 Sigor EMBU County 76.9 76.9 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during Manyatta 74.81 74.81 Mbeere north 70.08 70.08 Mbeere south 92.78 92.78 Runyenjes KITUI County 62.67 62.67 82.99 82.99 Kitui central 60.93 60.93 Kitui east The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above 76.75 76.75 Kitui rural 66.18 66.18 Kitui south 67.29 67.29 Kitui west Mwingi 55.11 55.11 central 53.92 53.92 Mwingi north 73.7 73.7 Mwingi west County 80.7 80.7 99.92 99.92 Kaiti The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in May, which was stable when compared to previous month of 76.6 76.6 Kibwezi east April. 75.34 75.34 MAKUENI Kibwezi west 89.68 89.68 Kilome 79.78 79.78 Makueni 87.69 87.69 Mbooni County 81.7 81.7 86.26 86.26 Buuri 81.26 81.26 Central Imenti The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across 76.93 76.93 the sub-counties during the month of May. Igembe central 86.43 86.43 Igembe north 71.26 71.26 Igembe south 80.63 80.63 North Imenti 91.41 91.41 South Imenti 74.47 74.47 Tigania east 82.2 82.2 Tigania west County 87.91 87.91 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in 85.63 85.63 NYERI Kieni 89 89 Mathira 90.91 90.91 Mukurweini 87.36 87.36 Nyeri town 93.54 93.54 Othaya 91.63 91.63 County 70.36 70.36 69.89 69.89 Ganze 67.23 67.23 Kaloleni The county remained at above normal vegetation greenness in 69.18 69.18 the month of May. Kilifi north KILIFI 51.35 51.35 Kilifi south 71.36 71.36 Magarini 77.55 77.55 Malindi 75.62 75.62 Rabai 83.51 83.51 County 83.41 83.41 The vegetation condition index recorded was above normal Kinango vegetation greenness in May which was stable when compared KWALE 85.7 85.7 to last month. Lunga Lunga 84.11 84.11 Matuga 72.37 72.37 Msambweni County 102.41 102.41 108.88 108.88 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in Lamu east vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness 98.67 98.67 condition during the month of May. Lamu west County 84.46 84.46 87.17 87.17 Mwatate The county remained stable at above normal vegetation TAITA 92.87 92.87 greenness during the month of May. TAVETA Taveta 78.91 78.91 98.74 98.74 Wundanyi County 87.5 87.5 The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the 86.11 86.11 Emurua Dikirr month of April which was stable when compared to the last month of April. 80.64 80.64 NAROK Kilgoris 84.97 84.97 Narok east 80.27 80.27 Narok north 93.87 93.87 Narok south Narok west Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Nutrition Circumference) Coping Strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score SUMMARY OF THE DROUGHT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification 1 . NORMAL Environmental indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5 . RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental Environmental indicators return to indicators fluctuate seasonal norms outside expected 3. ALARM 4 . EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are production indicators outside normal ranges fluctuate outside