February 2023 1. Drought Situation Overview The drought situation continued to worsen in 22 out of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2022 short rains coupled with four consecutive failed rainfall seasons. The OND 2022 rains were characterised by late onset, poor spatial distribution and early cessation. The month of January has also registered increasing temperatures across the country further exacerbating the situation. Marsabit county drifted from Alarm phase to Emergency phase. Eight (8) counties namely; Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui and Isiolo are in Alarm drought Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, January 2023 phase. Thirteen (13) counties including; Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, West Pokot, Kwale and Narok are in the Alert drought phase. While one (1) county; Tharaka Nithi County is in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties and the assessment is ongoing to determine the cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification. 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 January Rainfall Performance The analysis of the January 2023 monthly rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties did not receive rainfall including Pastoral North East, South East Marginal Agriculture, Coast Marginal Agriculture and Pastoral North West livelihood clusters. The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and Garissa. Garissa received about 16 50mm of rainfall especially in Dujis subcounty. Turkana county experienced dry condition. Marsabit county in Pastoral North West especially, Saku subcounty received considerable amount of Figure 2. January 2023 Rainfall Performance rainfall between 16 50mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received very depressed rainfall with some parts recording between 16 - 25 mm of rainfall. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties experienced hot and dry condition. The Agro Pastoral cluster including; Narok county received notable rainfall during the month under review of between 51 75mm of rainfall. Figure 2.0. Shows rainfall performance for the month of January 2023. 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for February The rainfall outlook for the month of February is illustrated in figure 3. Evidently, most parts of the Arid and Semi Arid lands of Kenya will be generally under sunny and dry conditions. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall. The AgroPastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and baringo are forecasted experience mainly sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall. The coastal marginal Figure 3. February 2023 Rainfall forecast agriculture counties including; Taita Taveta and Kwale counties are forecasted to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall. Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) and Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are forecated to experience mainly sunny and dry conditions. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for February 2023. 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3: Relates the vegetation condition Index (VCI) in January 2023 with that in January 2022. Generally, the vegetation condition in 2022 was better in relation to that of 2023 same period. January 2022 January 2023 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) January 20222023 The month of January 2023 indicated stability in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of December 2022. Four (4) counties including; Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera and Isiolo were in Extreme vegetation deficit. The following one county (1); Samburu is in Severe vegetation deficit. The following ten (10) counties including; Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and contingency planning. The following two (2) counties including; Kitui and Narok recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following six (6) counties including; Embu, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri and Tharaka Nithi recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in January 2023 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, January 2022 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of January 2023 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), January 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (4) (18) Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo, Mandera (East, Lafey, North, South, West), Marsabit (Laisamis, Mandera Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Wajir (East, Eldas, North, South, Tarbaj, West), Garissa (Lagdera), Isiolo (North), Kilifi (South) Severe vegetation (1) (11) deficit Samburu Mandera (Banissa), Samburu (East, North), Garissa (Balambala), Isiolo (South), Tana River (Bura), Kajiado (South), Laikipia (North), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Rabai) Moderate (10) (26) vegetation deficit Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Baringo (Mogotio, South, Tiaty), Turkana (Central, East, Loima, North, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Taita South, West), Samburu (West), Garissa (Daadab), Tana River (Galole), Taveta, Tana River, Turkana, Kajiado (Central, East, West), Laikipia (West), West Pokot (Sigor), Kilifi (Ganze, Malindi), Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Normal vegetation (2) (27) greenness Kitui, Narok Baringo (North), Garissa (Fafi, Dujis), Tana River (Garsen), Kajiado (North), Laikipia (East), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South), Kitui (East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Kitui South), Makueni (Kilome), Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South), Nyeri (Mathira, Township), Kilifi (Magarini, North), Kwale (Msambweni), Lamu (East), Narok (East, South, West) Above normal (6) (31) Vegetation Embu, Lamu, Makueni, Baringo (Central, Eldama), Garissa (Ijara), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, greenness Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi Maara), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, Rural, West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kibwezi East, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West,), Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu), Lamu (West), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, North) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse condition continue to deteriorate as temperature increase in the ASALs. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month. The current pasture and browse is expected to get depleted in less than one month given high rate of evapo- transpiration induced by high temperatures. Pasture and browse deteriorated to poor condition in Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot, Kajiado, Kwale, Lamu counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, January 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Kilifi Makueni Isiolo Baringo Makueni Garissa Kitui Mandera Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Marsabit Kilifi Mandera Meru Narok Kitui Marsabit Samburu Turkana Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Wajir Meru Turkana Tana River Lamu Samburu Wajir Embu Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Tharaka Tana River Kajiado Nithi West Pokot Kwale Embu Lamu Kajiado Nyeri Kwale 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition displayed poor and fair conditions in most of the arid and semi-arid counties. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions with exception of Lamu, Makueni, Taita Taveta and Kilifi counties which reported good body condition for cattle only as indicated in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, January 2023 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Lamu Isiolo Baringo Lamu Isiolo Kitui Makueni Mandera Garissa Taita Taveta Mandera Laikipia Kilifi Marsabit Kitui Makueni Marsabit Meru Taita Taveta Turkana Meru Kilifi Turkana Narok Wajir Narok Wajir Tana River Laikipia Tana River Kajiado West Pokot Nyeri West Pokot Laikipia Embu Samburu Embu Nyeri Kwale Kajiado Samburu Tharaka Nithi Kwale 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month of January showed a decline in trend as compared to the previous month of December in most of the counties. The following counties including Kajiado, Meru, Narok, Taita Taveta and Kitui recorded an improving trend while Kitui, Kwale, Narok and Makueni were above normal. The OND short rainfall season in the above-mentioned counties, regenerated some pasture and browse, impacting positively in milk production. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year in 18 of the 23 counties. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, January 2023 Milk Kitui Baringo Kajiado Baringo West Pokot Kwale Embu Meru Embu Garissa Production Narok Garissa Narok Laikipia Isiolo Makueni Isiolo Taita Mandera Kilifi Tharaka Kajiado Taveta Tharaka Kwale Nithi Kilifi Kitui Nithi Lamu Laikipia Nyeri Mandera Tana River Marsabit Makueni Meru Marsabit Nyeri Wajir NB: Turkana had zero readings 1.3.4. Livestock mortality Livestock mortality was noted in number of counties as indicated in the table below. The most affected counties with above- normal livestock mortality rates included Marsabit, Kajiado, Isiolo, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir and Mandera. Table 5 .0. Shows livestock mortality. Table 5.0. Showing livestock mortalities across 23 ASAL counties of Kenya. County Species Total Population Livestock Deaths Percentage Livestock Mortality Marsabit Sheep 1052437 511054 49 Marsabit Cattle 268882 122780 46 Marsabit Goats 1208668 535, 972 44 Kajiado Cattle 652856 258854 40 Isiolo Cattle 285210 112500 39 Marsabit Camels 283327 82841 29 Isiolo Goats 850000 212500 25 Samburu Cattle 369399 73879 20 Isiolo Sheep 1198000 179700 15 Samburu Sheep 651787 97768 15 Wajir Sheep 2231725 265286 12 Wajir Cattle 893032 89942 10 Kajiado Sheep 1244854 121020 10 Wajir Goats 3190511 237777 7 Taita Cattle 175349 11643 7 Laikipia Sheep 364951 20000 5 Samburu Goats 826119 41305 5 Kilifi Cattle 229891 10000 4 Wajir Donkeys 169527 7364 4 Kajiado Goat 1177771 44789 4 Wajir Camels 1184033 44079 4 Laikipia Goats 547420 19200 4 Laikipia Cattle 323370 11000 3 Nyeri (Kieni) Cattle 16903 500 3 Samburu Camels 30770 615 2 Taita Sheep 51885 934 2 Isiolo Camels 307011 4440 1 Isiolo Donkeys 38174 490 1 Kwale Sheep 51885 473 1 Taita Goats 312054 2634 1 Embu Poultry 422230 2800 1 Kwale Cattle 246509 1341 1 Embu Goats 280800 1060 0 Kwale Goats 394241 1070 0 Turkana Cattle 3269790 6539 0 Embu Cattle 161840 280 0 Embu Sheep 19300 25 0 Turkana Goats 6973731 6973 0 Turkana Sheep 6585780 6585 0 Lamu Sheep 27095 20 0 Lamu Goats 162988 60 0 Turkana Camels 3450 1 0 Kitui Cattle 1240197 191 0 Mandera Cattle 1295432 174 0 Lamu Cattle 205245 20 0 Mandera Sheep 1982699 165 0 Kitui Donkeys 190848 14 0 Kitui Poultry 1862272 108 0 Kitui Goats 1142188 59 0 Kitui Sheep 96062 4 0 Mandera Goats 4304090 129 0 Mandera Camels 1767881 23 0 Overall 52,822,469 2,613,008 5 Source data: State department of livestock records. 1.3.5 Cattle prices The cattle prices in the month of January worsened in 9 counties of Lamu, Mandera, Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Nyeri, West Pokot, Marsabit and Wajir compared to the previous month due to poor livestock body condition. 78 percent of the ASAL Countys cattle prices were below normal. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. The following counties including Garissa, Embu, Isiolo, Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Turkana reported a stable trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, January 2023 Cattle Tana River Kilifi Baringo Kilifi Garissa Lamu Embu Isiolo Kwale Embu Mandera Makueni Kajiado Meru Isiolo Baringo Kwale Laikipia Samburu Laikipia Kajiado Mandera Tharaka Makueni Kitui Marsabit Nithi Narok Nyeri Meru Taita Taveta West Pokot Narok Tana River Marsabit Nyeri Turkana Wajir 1.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were below LTA when compared to the previous month of December. Most of the counties recorded stable trend with counties of Baringo, Kwale, Embu, Kajiado, Lamu, Makueni, Nyeri, Wajir and Marsabit reporting worsening trend due to the deteriorating pasture and browse conditions Table 6.0: Goat Prices, January 2023. Three counties recorded an improving trend. Goat Embu Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Isiolo Kwale Kilifi Kitui Garissa Laikipia Garissa Embu Laikipia Lamu Isiolo Tharaka Kitui Kajiado West Pokot Narok Mandera Nithi Meru Lamu Tana River Samburu Marsabit Narok Makueni Meru Taita Nyeri Nyeri Taveta Wajir Taita Taveta Samburu Marsabit Tharaka Tana River Baringo Nithi Mandera Turkana Turkana Wajir West Pokot 1.4 Crop production Coast Marginal Agriculture counties: In Kilifi County, the cassava in the farms recorded fair condition, while 2022 short rains crop of maize, green grams and cowpeas recording poor condition following poor performance of the season. Vegetables, water melons and few pineapples and mangoes were the main crop harvested during the month under review. In some areas in Kwale county, Maize, cowpeas and green grams were the main crops grown during the short rains season. Maize was at tasseling stage with at least 80 percent showing moisture stress in both livelihood zones. However, those in the livestock farming livelihood zone were replanting because their seeds dried up owing to a dry spell that occurred immediately after planting. According to the just concluded short rains assessment, maize production was estimated at only 25 percent which was equivalent of 69,410 90-kg bags compared with 27,741 bags normally produced. Cowpeas and green grams were still being harvested although the production was projected at 50 percent each. Approximately 9,655 and 12,492 90-kg bags of green grams and cowpeas were projected to be harvested in comparison with 19,310 and 24,984 90-kg bags for the respective crops in the five-year long-term average. South East Marginal Agriculture counties: The major crops planted in Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone were green grams, millet, sorghum, cowpeas and maize. The Mixed Farming livelihood zone planted; maize, beans, pigeon peas, green grams and cowpeas. Area planted was lower than the long-term average due to late onset of the short rains and forecasted below normal rainfall. Majority of crops were in flowering, fruit filling or harvesting stages and in fair to poor condition. Total crop failure was also experienced in parts of Mwingi West, Kitui West and Mwingi North sub counties. Reported cases of fall and African army worm infestation was reported across the livelihood zones. In Makueni county, both the Mixed farming and Marginal Mixed farming livelihood zone, crops were at different stages of growth with maize having reached physiological maturity. Maize production will be adversely affected since the rainfall cessation was earlier causing the crop to be moisture-stressed at the critical time of tasseling silking stage. The production will be below average in most parts of the maize growing zones with some places like Kiima Kiu Kalanzoni and some parts of Kee and Mukaa wards realizing total crop failure. Production of green grams and cowpeas is expected to be good since the crops had attained physiological maturity by the time of rainfall cessation. There was also infestation among pulses in the Marginal Mixed Farming zone in areas such as Masongaleni. Pulses such as cowpeas and green grams had flourished in the Marginal mixed livelihood zone. Beans had performed well in the Mixed farming zone and good yields are expected. In Tharaka Nithi county, harvesting, winnowing and was ongoing for the OND season crops. About 90 of the farmers have planted considering the OND is the food production season for the County. The crop development stage was at maturity. However, farmers continued to encounter production challenges particularly related to high input prices for herbicides, certified seeds and the fertilizers. Pulses planted during this season were green grams, cow peas and pigeon peas while as cereals like millet, sorghum and maize have been planted in the Mixed and Rain fed cropping Livelihood Zones. 1.4.1 Maize prices In the month under review Embu, Kajiado, Lamu, Marsabit and Wajir the price of maize was at a worsening trend while the remaining countie were at Stable (16) and improving (2) trend as compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above Table 7.0: Maize prices, January 2023 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Tana River Baringo Embu Embu Makueni Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Lamu Kilifi Marsabit Kitui Wajir Kilifi Kwale Mandera Laikipia Narok Narok Nyeri Nyeri Meru Samburu Kwale 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 17 counties is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general improving trend in distance to household from water source due to water trucking interventions. Distances to household water access in arid counties ranged between 3.40 16.4 kilometers (km) with Isiolo recording lowest and Mandera recording highest distances to household water access. While in semi-arid counties, the distance range between 3 km to 6.8km was recorded by Nyeri and KajiadoTharaka Nithi respectively. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, January 2023 Indicato Current status Trend r Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distanc Embu Baringo Kwale Embu Baringo Tharaka Garissa Kitui Narok Kilifi Isiolo Nithi e from Isiolo Meru Kitui Kajiado West Pokot househ Kajiado Samburu Lamu Kwale Mandera olds to Kilifi Makueni Laikipia Marsabit Laikipia Meru Turkana Garissa Lamu Narok Wajir Makueni Nyeri sources Mandera Samburu Marsabit Taita Taveta Nyeri Tana River Tharaka 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is mainly above the LTA and on a worsening trend except for four counties which are on a stable trend due to poor performance of OND short rains. The average trekking distance for Arid counties ranged between 8.3 kilometers and 28.5 kilometers with Baringo county recording lowest distances and Marsabit highest while the average trekking distance for semi-arid counties ranged between 3.2 kilometers to 13.8 kilometers with Narok recording the lowest and Meru North highest. However, there was a slight improvement in Marsabit as a result of the ongoing water trucking interventions. Table 9.0. shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, January 2023 Distance Embu Kajiado Baringo Marsabit Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kitui Garissa Taita Taveta Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Narok Turkana Kajiado livestock Laikipia Samburu Wajir Kilifi grazing area Lamu Tana River Kitui Makueni Kwale to main Mandera Laikipia Marsabit Lamu sources Meru Makueni Nyeri Narok Taita Nyeri Taveta Samburu Tharaka Tana River Nithi Embu Turkana Meru Wajir Tharaka West Nithi Pokot West Pokot 1.6 Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. Over 95 percent of ASAL counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is on a worsening trend in 13 counties and five counties depicting a stable condition. Table 10.0 shows the terms of trade across 23 ASAL counties. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, January 2023 Terms of Isiolo Narok Baringo Garissa Isiolo Baringo trade Embu Laikipia Kilifi Mandera (ToT) Garissa Kwale Makueni Samburu Kitui Nyeri Kitui Marsabit Kwale Tharaka Tana River Wajir Makueni Nithi Lamu Mandera Narok Meru Turkana Kilifi Embu Laikipia Kajiado Samburu Meru Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tharaka West Pokot Nyeri 1.7 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The counties of; Kilifi, Kitui, Kilifi, Samburu, Narok and West-Pokot recorded Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) measurement below the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Baringo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir and West Pokot counties recorded a worsening trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), January 2023 Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening LTA LTA Baringo Embu Kilifi Kitui Embu Baringo Nyeri Kwale Kitui Tharaka- Isiolo Kajiado MUAC Kajiado Meru Samburu Nithi Kwale Laikipia Tharaka Taita Narok Garissa Taita- Lamu Nithi Taveta West- Samburu Taveta Makueni Isiolo Pokot Kilifi Mandera Wajir Meru Marsabit Mandera Narok Tana River Tana Nyeri Turkana River Wajir Makueni West Garissa Pokot 2.0 Drought phase classification Table 12: sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of January 2023. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, thirteen (13) counties including; Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, West Pokot, Kwale and Narok are in the Alert drought phase, while one (1) county Tharaka Nithi is in the Normal drought phase. Eight (8) counties namely; Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui and Isiolo are in Alarm drought phase. One (1) county, Marsabit is in Emergency drought phase. During the month under review, one (1) county reported an improving trend, five (5) counties recorded a stable trend, while seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, January 2023 Drought Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Tharaka Nithi Alert Kwale, Narok Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, West Pokot Alarm Isiolo Kitui Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir Emergency Marsabit Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Scaling up the interventions in terms of food aid and cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Livestock off-takes (commercial and slaughter) Water sector Support scale up water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th January 2023 BARINGO County 37.83 32.98 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit and its three sub counties Central including Mogotio, Baringo South and Tiaty 53.62 54.95 Eldama 44.62 50.32 Mogotio 37.22 26.06 North 38.15 35.47 South 39.26 30.18 Tiaty 33.46 27.99 MANDERA County 11.79 5.96 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation condition to extreme Banissa 17.84 10.62 vegetation deficit in the month under review. Most of the sub counties worsened M East 5.59 2.19 during the month of January Lafey 10.66 2.91 M North 16.16 8.26 M South 7.22 5.79 M West 10.93 4.44 TURKANA County 25.32 23.18 The county recorded a stable trend in vegetation greenness though still maintained T Central 36.64 29.05 at moderate vegetation deficit. Turkana central worsened from normal vegetation T. East 24.19 20.04 greenness to moderate vegetation deficit T. Loima 26.77 22.63 T. North 20.54 22.25 T. South 28.21 22.88 T. West 25.57 25.01 MARSABIT County 8.79 6.56 The county and all of its sub counties maintained at extreme vegetation deficit Laisaimis 8.26 6.42 during the month of January. Moyale 6.8 5.4 N. Horr 9.76 7.08 Saku 5.75 3.96 WAJIR County 7.3 7.3 The county and all of its sub counties worsened to extreme vegetation deficit W East 7.41 8.05 during the month of January. W. Eldas 3.81 4.23 W. North 8.84 5.81 W. South 8.53 9.44 W. Tarbaj 8.75 8.28 W West 3 4.14 SAMBURU County 15.38 17.82 The county maintained at severe vegetation deficit during the month under S East 11.31 15.69 review. Samburu North worsened to severe vegetation deficit from moderate S. North 16.45 18.23 vegetation deficit. S. West 28.41 25.17 GARISSA County 27.59 31.81 The county experienced stable trend in vegetation condition index at moderate Balambala 17.72 19.57 vegetation deficit during the month of January. Daadab 20.79 23.85 Fafi 36.56 38.09 Ijara 37.62 51.29 Lagdera 7.67 8.25 Dujis 22.13 37.1 ISIOLO County 7.37 8.68 The county and all of its sub counties maintained at extreme vegetation deficit I. North 6.68 6.96 during the month under review. I. South 8.42 TANA RIVER County 29.21 28.12 The county and all two of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit Bura 20.64 18.78 during the month January. Bura worsened to extreme vegetation deficit Galole 30.54 26.83 Garsen 35.66 36.86 KAJIADO County 23.87 25.98 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado North recorded an K. Central 14.07 23.74 improvement in vegetation condition to normal vegetation greenness during the K. East 24.52 27.03 month of January K. North 19.86 36.67 K. South 21.14 16.78 K. West 31.42 34.01 LAIKIPIA County 24.27 22.36 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a stability. Laikipia L. East 32.13 40.21 East recorded an improvement in vegetation condition during the month of L. North 15.37 15.46 January L. West 37.15 26.66 THARAKA County 31.81 54.93 The county and its sub counties recorded a general improvement in vegetation NITHI Chuka 44.71 67.8 condition to above normal vegetation greenness Maara 39.42 70.68 Tharaka 24.52 45.05 WEST County 28.24 24.74 The County worsened to moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when POKOT Kacheliba 18.59 15.14 compared to the previous month of December. Kapenguria 40.29 35.67 Pokot South 49.04 44.68 Sigor 23.33 21.18 EMBU County 47.79 64.93 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation Manyatta 42.24 68.19 greenness during the month of January Mbeere North 52.05 65.39 Mbeere South 48.56 62.79 Runyenjes 41.51 68.25 County 33.93 45.03 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to normal vegetation greenness during the month of January up from moderate vegetation Kitui Central 37.34 55.42 deficit. Kitui East 33.73 42.75 KITUI Mwingi 28.51 Central 36.56 Mwingi North 23.3 37.46 36.53 40.28 Mwingi West Kitui Rural 43.12 70.13 Kitui South 38.74 49.02 Kitui West 37.15 56.69 MAKUENI County 46.06 64.07 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation greenness to normal Kaiti 43.54 70.87 vegetation greenness from normal vegetation greenness. Kibwezi East 41.52 63.35 Kibwezi West 48.74 62.09 Kilome 30.65 37.88 Makueni 56.32 75.59 Mbooni 48.77 70.83 County 32.83 52.52 The county recorded an improvement to above normal vegetation greenness Buuri 41.45 54.21 during the month of January from moderate vegetation deficit Central Imenti 32.14 63.39 Igembe 29.25 Central 46.17 Igembe North 25.97 36.49 Igembe South 25.35 48.67 North Imenti 27.09 61.23 South Imenti 31.19 63.39 Tigania East 36.08 55.24 Tigania West 41.11 68.18 County 24.43 51.77 The county and four of its sub counties recorded serious improvement in Kieni 29.61 53.36 vegetation condition from moderate vegetation deficit to above normal vegetation NYERI Mathira 12.62 48.24 greenness Mukurweini 16.28 52.93 Othaya 26.78 52.87 Tetu 24.62 52.1 Township 2.37 39.38 County 20.78 29.85 The vegetation condition in the county remained the same in moderate vegetation Ganze 12.55 22.95 deficit during the month under review. However, Magarini and Kilifi North KILIFI Kaloleni 12.75 10.15 improved to normal vegetation greenness Magarini 24.58 35.91 Malindi 24.48 30.52 Kilifi-North 32.45 37.13 Rabai 16.44 11.84 Kilifi-South 5.03 6.26 County 17.46 24.4 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition index during the KWALE Kinango 11.23 20.17 month of January from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation greenness Lungalunga 22.02 28.59 Matuga 30.62 30.29 Msambweni 36.13 39.89 LAMU County 44.57 52.98 The County and one of its sub-counties recorded an improvement in vegetation Lamu East 36.37 45.55 condition to above normal vegetation greenness Lamu West 49.31 57.27 County 22.88 28.87 The county and all of its sub counties remained constant at moderate vegetation TAITA Mwatate 21.7 25.75 deficit during the month under review TAVETA Taveta 25.09 23.87 Voi 22.28 32.39 Wundanyi 22.9 28.87 NAROK County 38.22 46.85 The county recorded the same vegetation greenness condition at normal Narok-East 31.9 38.93 vegetation greenness, however, Narok South, East and West recorded slight Emurua Dikirr 60.65 71.85 improvements Kilgoris 54.87 60.6 Narok-North 37.59 54.47 Narok-South 27.42 38.47 Narok-West 41.82 46 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle.