NATIONAL DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN JULY 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The 2023 long rains that ended in May had positive impacts, including reversing the adverse effects of the drought experienced in the past five seasons. Twenty-one (21) of the 23 ASAL counties reported normal drought phase during the month of July while one (Taita Taveta) was classfified in Alert drought phase and another (Marsabit) in Recovery phase. The 21 counties in Normal phase include Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Kajiado, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Isiolo, Turkana and West Pokot. Figure 1 shows drought phase classification for the month of July 2023. Figure 1: Drought phase classification in July 2023 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 July 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the July 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties received trace rainfall amounts. The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received amounts of rainfall at 1mm. The Pastoral North west counties, including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu, received considerable amounts of rainfall ranging between 1mm to 5mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties received low rainfall Figure 2: July 2023 Rainfall Performance amounts in July ranging between 1mm to 10mm whereas Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts during the month ranging between 1mm to 50mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did received low amounts ranging between 11mm to 75mm as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for August 2023 The rainfall outlook for August is illustrated in Figure 3. About 90 of the ASALs are forecasted to be under generally sunny and dry conditions. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience generally sunny and dry conditions with counties such as Embu and Tharaka Nithi experiencing periodic chilly and overcast with light The AgroPastoral livelihood zones including Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and baringo are forecasted to experience generally sunny and dry conditions and periodically chilly and overcast with light rains for counties bordering Mt. Kenya and Aberdare ranges. The coastal marginal agriculture counties including Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties are forecasted to receive near-average Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Figure 3: August 2023 Rainfall forecast Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) are forecated to experience generally sunny and dry conditions while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are forecated to experience below normal rainfall to generally sunny and dry conditions. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for August 2023. 1.2 Vegetation Condition The month of July 2023 indicated enormous improvement in vegetation condition across the ASALs compared to June. The improvement is attributed to cumulative effects of March to May rainfall season and moisture condition improvement. One county, Taita Taveta, has Moderate vegetation deficit hence need for close monitoring and contingency planning. Six (6) counties including West Pokot, Turkana, Samburu, Laikipia, Tana River and Kajiado, recorded Normal vegetation greenness. Sixteen (16) counties including Baringo, Narok, Makueni, Kitui, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions in June and July 2023 The vegetation condition in July 2023 is better as compared to June 2023 as shown in Figure 4. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of July 2023 is provided in Table 14. The overall VCI for each county disaggregated by subcounty is provided in Table 1. Table 1: Summarised Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), July 2023 Category County Subcounties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe vegetation deficit (0) (0) Moderate vegetation deficit (1) (7) Taita Taveta Mandera (Banissa), Samburu (East), Garissa (Balambala), Kajiado (Central, East), Taita Taveta (Voi, Wundanyi), Normal vegetation (6) (24) greenness West Pokot, Baringo (Tiaty), Turkana (East, South, North), Marsabit (Laisamis, Turkana, Moyale), Samburu (North), Garissa (Township, Ijara, Fafi), Isiolo Samburu, (North), Tana River (Bura), Kajiado (South, West), Laikipia (East, Laikipia, Tana North), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Kitui (Mwingi North), Makueni River and (Kibwezi East), Kilifi (Ganze, Magarini), Kwale (Msambweni), Taita Kajiado Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta), Above normal Vegetation (16) (82) greenness Baringo, Narok, Baringo (Central, North, South, Ravine, Mogotio), Mandera (Lafey, Makueni, Kitui, North, South, West, East), Turkana (Loima, Central, West), Marsabit Embu, Tharaka (North Horr, Saku), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South, West, Eldas, East), Nithi, Nyeri, Samburu (West), Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab), Isiolo (South), Tana Meru, Isiolo, River (Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (North), Laikipia (West), Tharaka Marsabit, Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot Mandera, Wajir, South, Sigor), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Garissa, Lamu, Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Kilifi and Kwale Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe central, Igembe north, Igembe south, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania east, Tigania west), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri town, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kaloleni, North, South, Malindi, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga lunga, Matuga), Lamu (East, West), Narok (East, West, North, South, Kilgoris, Emurua dikirr) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and Browse Condition Pasture and browse condition was good in 52 of ASAL counties as shown in Table 2. The current conditions are above normal compared to normal years, with stability in pasture condition compared to June. Stabilised forage condition is attributable to above-normal rains received in the last season. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition - July 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Baringo Kajiado Baringo Kajiado Isiolo Kitui Garissa Laikipia Kilifi Laikipia Isiolo Makueni Kitui Makueni Kilifi Mandera Kwale Mandera Kwale West Pokot Lamu West Pokot Lamu Narok Marsabit Narok Marsabit Nyeri Meru Nyeri Meru Samburu Tana River Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Turkana Wajir Turkana Wajir 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition for cattle was fair at 30 and good at 70 in the ASAL counties while body condition for goats was fair at 26 and good at 74 Generally, the body condition of most livestock was above normal compared to similar periods in a normal year due to improvement in vegetation as shown in Table 3. Table 3: Livestock body condition - July 2023 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Embu Baringo Kitui Isiolo Narok Garissa Embu Kajiado Nyeri Isiolo Narok Kilifi Taita Taveta Kajiado Nyeri Kwale Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Turkana Kwale Turkana Lamu Laikipia Makueni Lamu Mandera Makueni Marsabit Mandera Meru Marsabit Samburu Meru Taita Taveta Samburu Wajir Wajir 1.3.3 Milk production In the majority of counties, there was slight deterioration in the trend of milk production in July compared to the previous month of June. Eight counties showed an improving trend, except Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi and Turkana, which experienced a worsening trend. Garissa, Isiolo, Laikipia, Makueni and Turkana counties, on the other hand, had milk production levels above the normal range. However, its important to note that the current milk production status in 15 of the 23 counties is below the average for a normal year. The details of milk production trend in the 23 ASAL counties are in table 4. Table 4: Milk production - July 2023 Milk Garissa Wajir Baringo Kilifi Baringo Isiolo Production Isiolo Laikipia Embu Kwale Embu Kajiado Kwale Kajiado Lamu Garissa Kitui Lamu Kilifi Marsabit Mandera Laikipia Meru Kitui Meru West Pokot Makueni Turkana Makueni Narok Nyeri Mandera Tana River Samburu Marsabit Wajir Taita Taveta Narok Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Turkana West Pokot 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included unconfirmed cases of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and Foot and Mouth. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties (57) in the ASAL region experienced above-average cattle prices. The cattle prices were below normal in Nyeri and Taita Taveta counties compared to similar periods during a normal year. A positive trend was observed in the majority of the counties, including Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir. However, Lamu and Meru recorded a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5: Cattle prices in July 2023 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Embu Baringo Nyeri Garissa Baringo Lamu Prices Garissa Kajiado Taita Isiolo Embu Meru Isiolo Kilifi Taveta Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Kitui Laikipia Kwale Makueni Kwale Makueni Lamu Narok Nyeri Mandera Mandera Turkana Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Marsabit West Turkana Narok Meru Pokot Wajir Samburu Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices The prices of goats in most of the ASAL counties were higher at 86 compared to the long- term average. Majority of counties experienced a stable trend, except for Kitui, Lamu and Nyeri counties, which reported a worsening trend. In Table 6, it is evident that Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Laikipia, Makueni, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Wajir and West Pokot recorded an improving trend. Table 6: Goat prices in July 2023 Goat Baringo Garissa Nyeri Kajiado Baringo Kitui Prices Embu Lamu Kilifi Embu Lamu Kitui Mandera Garissa Nyeri Samburu Meru Isiolo Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Laikipia Turkana Makueni Makueni Samburu Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Kwale Taita Taveta Wajir Narok Tana River West Pokot Wajir Isiolo West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Kwale 1.4 Crop Production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture and south east marginal agriculture cluster. The coastal cluster counties of Kilifi and Kwale are yet to complete harvesting. Table 7 summarises the state of crop production in these clusters. Table 7: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Kilifi Long rains crop harvest continued across the livelihood zone. Marginal Maize, green grams and cowpeas were the main rain-fed crops Agriculture being harvested in the month of July. Harvesting of vegetables was also recorded as supply in the market remained high. Kwale Harvesting of green maize, cowpeas and green grams was ongoing. Rains in the livestock farming livelihood zone ceased earlier than normal, with crops having experienced moisture stress and crop destruction caused by invasion of farms by elephants. South East Kitui -Crops were at harvesting stage with farmers recording below Marginal average harvests. Agriculture -Wilting of maize was reported in most parts due to moisture stress hence little or no harvests realised. Makueni Minimal harvesting of maize was ongoing in the mixed farming livelihood zone. There was total crop failure in the MMF livelihood zone due to late onset and early cessation of the rains. Tharaka Nithi Farmers were harvesting pulses while harvesting was underway for cereals. Embu Harvesting was complete for all the crops (beans, maize, sorghum, green grams) in both livelihood zones 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize Prices in ASALs were above the LTA, except in Garissa which was at LTA. 13 counties (56) experienced a stable trend in maize prices. They include Kajiado, Taita Taveta, Wajir, Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Meru, Mandera, Kitui, Laikipia, Narok, Tana River and West Pokot. However, three counties witnessed a worsening trend in maize prices as illustrated in Table Table 8: Maize prices - July 2023 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Embu Garissa Baringo Kajiado N yeri Prices Kilifi Garissa Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Isiolo Wajir Turkana Makueni Lamu Embu Tana River Makueni Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Kwale Wajir Samburu Meru West Pokot Mandera Baringo Kitui Isiolo Laikipia Kajiado Narok Kitui Tana River Kwale West Pokot 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 5 counties was below the LTA. The trend is worsening compared with the previous month. Distances in arid (pastoral) counties ranged between 2.5 and 7.6 km, with Isiolo recording lowest and Mandera recording highest distances to household water access. The distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 1.8 km to 6.3 km recorded in Laikipia and Kajiado counties respectively. 13 counties, including Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Makueni, Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir, showed a worsening trend in household access distances to water sources. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources in July 2023 Distance from Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kwale Garissa Baringo households to Laikipia Embu Kilifi Meru Isiolo Embu main water Meru Kwale Kitui Kitui Kajiado sources Narok Lamu Mandera Lamu Kilifi Nyeri Makueni Marsabit Mandera Laikipia Samburu Wajir Taita Taveta Makueni Taita Taveta West Pokot Tana River Marsabit Tana River West Pokot Narok Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Turkana Samburu Kajiado Tharaka Nithi 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trekking distance to water source from grazing areas slightly deteriorated compared to the previous month, with 10 counties registering distances below the LTA. 16 counties recorded a worsening trend. The average trekking distance for livestock in arid counties ranged between 7 and 12.2 km, with Wajir county recording lowest distances and Mandera County highest respectively. The distance to water sources for livestock ranged between 1.7 and 7.3 km in semi-arid counties, with Kilifi recording the lowest and Baringo the highest. Table 10 shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources - July 2023 Distance Baringo Garissa Embu Meru West Pokot Baringo from Laikipia Kajiado Isiolo Laikipia Embu livestock Meru Kitui Kilifi Lamu Isiolo grazing area Nyeri Lamu Kwale Makueni Kajiado to main water Taita Taveta Narok Makueni Kitui Kilifi sources Tana River Mandera Garissa Kwale Turkana Marsabit Mandera West Pokot Samburu Marsabit Tharaka Narok Nithi Nyeri Wajir Samburu 1.6 Terms of Trade In July, 19 counties were below the LTA. The trade trends, specifically the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties, fell below the long term average due to the diminished purchasing power of households across ASAL counties. The decline can be attributed to the high prices of commodities. Nevertheless, an encouraging improvement was observed in 12 counties namely; Baringo, Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir. Two counties registered worsening state as shown in Table 11. Table 11: Terms of Trade - July 2023 Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of Garissa Baringo Baringo Garissa Nyeri trade (ToT) Kilifi Embu Embu Kwale Kitui Kitui Kwale Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Makueni Kajiado Lamu Meru Kilifi Makueni Laikipia Mandera Samburu Samburu Marsabit Taita Taita Taveta Meru Taveta Tharaka Nithi Narok Tana River Wajir Tharaka Nithi West Pokot West Pokot Turkana Kajiado Wajir Isiolo 1.7 Health and Nutrition Twenty-one (21) counties recorded above long term average of the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (based on middle-upper- arm measurements MUAC values). This can be attributed to decreased milk production, resulting in reduced milk consumption at household level, as well as inadequate dietary diversity, suboptimal child feeding practices, and decreased overall food intake within households. The trend worsened in three counties including Kajiado, Kilifi and Turkana as illustrated in Table 12. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), July 2023 Baringo Embu Tharaka Baringo Laikipia Kajiado Kajiado Lamu Nithi Garissa Lamu Kilifi MUAC Kilifi West-Pokot Isiolo Mandera Turkana Kitui Marsabit Kwale Tana River Kwale Meru Marsabit West Pokot Laikipia Samburu Meru Wajir Makueni Garissa Narok Taita-Taveta Mandera Isiolo Samburu Makueni Nyeri Meru Tharaka-Nithi Kitui Taita Taveta Narok Nyeri Tana River Embu 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Table 13 sums the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of July 2023. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, 21 counties including Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Kajiado, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Isiolo, Turkana and West Pokot are in the Normal drought phase, while Taita Taveta is in the Alert phase and Marsabit in Recovery. During the month under review, two counties reported an improving trend, 13 counties recorded a stable trend, while eight counties reported a worsening trend. The drought has continued to worsen in one county (Taita Taveta). Table 13: Drought phase classification - July 2023 Drought Trend status Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Isiolo Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Garissa, Kajiado, Makueni, Narok, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot Alert Taita Taveta, Alarm - - - Emergency - - - Recovery Marsabit - - 3.0 Recommendations i) Food and safety nets: Sustaining food aid and cash transfers to the population identified as requiring humanitarian assistance in the 2023 Long Rains Assessment. ii) Livestock sector: Promoting fodder productions and storage; stimulating local livestock markets and other value chains to function optimally; treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. iii) Water sector: Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; provision of water treatment tabs; development of roof catchments in institutions and rock catchments. iv) Health and nutrition sector: Support on hygiene and sanitation promotion; sustaining mass screening and referrals; pre-positioning the supply commodities in local facilities. v) Education sector: Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; support to school bursaries. vi) Peace and security sector: Facilitating intrainter community peace dialogue and resource use agreements; coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. vii) Coordination: Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th July 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS County Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month month values as at as at (3-month) 30th 30th 50 Vegetation greenness above June July normal 2023 2023 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit 10 Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 56.6 55.93 Central 71.88 69.95 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in July. North 62.12 64.17 South 53.24 57.86 Ravine 77.73 64.65 Mogotio 45.22 51.95 Tiaty 52.17 49.24 MANDERA County 34.65 60.94 Improvement in vegetation cover from moderate vegetation deficit to Lafey 30.45 65.1 above normal vegetation greenness. North 30.79 54.75 Banissa 26.51 32.31 West 37.37 51.3 South 44.26 86.88 East 34.33 70.57 TURKANA County 41.81 46.68 Stability in the vegetation greenness at normal vegetation greenness East 28.95 34.64 during the month of July. South 35.7 45.8 Loima 41.07 53.68 Central 34.12 51.94 West 49.42 54.41 North 48.51 43.03 MARSABIT County 35.18 51.36 Improved vegetation cover from normal vegetation greenness in June to Laisamis 35.12 49.69 above normal vegetation greenness in July. Moyale 32.75 43.08 North Horr 35.09 52.85 Saku 48.65 79.49 WAJIR County 39.42 63.54 Improvement in the vegetation cover from normal vegetation greenness Tarbaj 45.48 76.89 in June to above normal vegetation greenness in July. North 42.8 63.71 South 29.66 53.13 West 54.77 77.42 Eldas 48.86 72.89 East 30.27 54.82 SAMBURU County 31.77 36.42 Improving trend in vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation East 26.56 32.8 deficit to normal vegetation greenness. North 34.22 36.7 West 44.74 50.42 GARISSA County 37.42 51.12 Improved vegetation condition from normal vegetation greenness to Balambala 24.38 31.44 above normal vegetation greenness. Township 35.39 35.12 Ijara 58.99 48.58 Fafi 30.71 42.75 Lagdera 45.81 77.3 Dadaab 29.01 63.48 ISIOLO County 38.74 55.81 Improvement in vegetation condition from normal vegetation greenness North 35.25 48.64 to above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. South 44.08 66.77 TANA RIVER County 28.96 46.57 The county and two of its sub counties noted improvement in vegetation Bura 22.31 39.8 greenness from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation Galole 26.06 50.12 greenness, with Galole and Garsen recording above normal vegetation Garsen 36.42 50.11 greenness. KAJIADO County 47.21 35.58 The county recorded vegetation greenness at normal. However, Kajiado Central 61.83 30.99 Central and East recorded moderate vegetation deficit. East 34.92 31.74 North 70.01 52.85 South 31.45 36.37 West 56.52 38.81 LAIKIPIA County 40.91 47.35 The County and its sub counties improved to normal vegetation East 45.08 47.2 greenness from severe vegetation deficit. North 37.06 42.01 West 46.1 57.42 THARAKA County 53.33 61.06 Stability recorded in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation NITHI Chuka 62.48 72.81 greenness in July. Maara 80.59 73.69 Tharaka 41.17 52.6 WEST County 49.21 49.82 The county recorded stability at normal vegetation greenness. However, POKOT Kacheliba 43.12 41 Kapenguria, Pokot South and Sigor recorded above normal vegetation Kapenguria 51.24 55.86 greenness. Pokot south 63.63 67.51 Sigor 50.04 50.29 EMBU County 51.61 70.18 Stability recorded in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation Manyatta 79.38 77.58 greenness during the month under review. Mbeere north 41.84 69.5 Mbeere south 42.53 65.2 Runyenjes 76.31 82.1 KITUI County 42.63 60.95 The County recorded an improvement in vegetation cover to above Kitui central 64.4 82.05 normal vegetation greenness in July. Kitui east 47.3 83.97 Kitui rural 72.33 81.63 Kitui south 42.54 53.81 Kitui west 57.13 62.48 Mwingi central 38.47 68.9 Mwingi north 31.49 45.7 Mwingi west 39.93 54.49 MAKUENI County 59.32 63.14 Stable vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness in Kaiti 80.9 77.26 July compared to June. Kibwezi east 54.19 45.82 Kibwezi west 48.68 57.98 Kilome 47.02 64.3 Makueni 72.58 79.94 Mbooni 74.43 81.5 MERU County 56.6 63.8 Stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 62.92 61.88 Central Imenti 78.49 69.64 Igembe central 45.39 69.91 Igembe north 33.4 54.12 Igembe south 45.58 72.14 North Imenti 74.88 74.77 South Imenti 87.07 72.23 Tigania east 50.65 55.69 Tigania west 64.39 56.74 NYERI County 80.35 73.12 Stable vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness in Kieni 76.5 68.65 July. Mathira 90.87 82.71 Mukurweini 91.12 87.57 Nyeri town 87.54 77.97 Othaya 75.83 69.83 Tetu 82.64 77.77 KILIFI County 46.58 50.33 The vegetation condition in the county improved to above vegetation Ganze 51.89 47.24 greenness in July from normal vegetation greenness. Kaloleni 54.18 58.4 Kilifi north 34.17 52.81 Kilifi south 47.62 51.75 Magarini 44.77 49.53 Malindi 44.98 59.36 Rabai 53.37 54.79 KWALE County 64.58 61.29 The county and all its sub counties recorded stable vegetation condition Kinango 67.58 61.01 at above normal vegetation greenness in July. Lunga 62.24 66.27 Matuga 60.3 58.01 Msambweni 50.8 48.7 LAMU County 69.65 72.24 The county and all its sub counties recorded stable vegetation condition Lamu east 68.48 65.74 at above normal vegetation greenness condition in July. Lamu west 70.33 75.99 TAITA County 32.13 35 The county improved to normal vegetation greenness from moderate TAVETA Mwatate 25.6 38.71 vegetation deficit during the month under review. Taveta 23.38 38.66 Voi 37.98 32.7 Wundanyi 28.91 31.26 NAROK County 80.72 64.63 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation Emurua Dikirr 68.54 71.65 condition at above normal vegetation greenness in July. Kilgoris 73.81 56.89 Narok east 65.97 65.79 Narok north 76.33 66.27 Narok south 84.1 62.98 Narok west 89.71 68.17 Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Overview of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). Table 16: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition 1. NORMAL indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental indicators indicators return to fluctuate outside seasonal norms expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are outside production indicators normal ranges fluctuate outside seasonal ranges Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification