January 2022 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance for December, 2021 The month of December marked the cessation of the October to December (OND) seasonal rainfall. An analysis of rainfall by Kenya Metrological Department (KMD) of up to 29th December 2021 indicates that enhanced rainfall (120) was experienced over the eastern sector of the country while depressed rainfall (25) was experienced over the western sector of the country. December was characterized by isolated severe storms over the South-eastern lowlands (Makueni, Kitui and Kajiado) and the Coastal strip (Taita Taveta, Kwale, Kilifi and Tana River). The highest monthly total rainfall of 315.2 mm (200.7) was recorded in Meru station. The distribution both in time and space was fairly good over the eastern sector and poor over the western sector. Figure 1 shows the December Figure 1. December Rainfall performance 2021 rainfall performance (). Rainfall Forecast for January 2022 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for January 2022 indicates that; a few parts of the country will experience occasional rainfall during the first and second weeks of January and remain generally sunny and dry towards the end of the month. These include a few areas in; Southern Rift Valley (Narok), south eastern lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Machakos and Taita Taveta) and parts of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley (Meru and Embu). Figure 2 portrays the expected rainfall pattern during January 2022. Figure 1. January Rainfall forecast The vegetation condition index in most of the ASAL counties was either severe or extreme deficit even for the coastal and eastern sector that received above average rainfall in the month of December. This is attributed to late onset and poor performance of rainfall in the month of November. Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in December 2020 with that in December 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of December 2020 attributed to poor performance of the previous season. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), December 2020 and December December 2020 December 2021 The month of December 2021 showed alarming deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of November 2021.The deteriorating of vegetation condition was due to below average SONOND short rains. The following (2) counties Kilifi and Kwale county are in the Extreme vegetation deficit band. The following 17 sub counties; Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Magarini, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi- South) Kitui (Mwingi central, Mwingi North) Garissa (Lagdera) Isiolo (Isiolo South) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in dire need of humanitarian assistance. The following seven (7) counties including; Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Lamu, Tana River, Wajir and Marsabit are in severe vegetation deficit. The following Six (6) counties namely; Kajiado, Makueni, Mandera, Samburu, Taita taveta and Tharaka Nithi are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. The following Five (5) counties namely; Embu, Laikipia, Meru, Narok and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following Three (3) counties;- Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot, recorded above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in December 2021 has deteriorated as compared to the same period the previous year, December 2020, figure 3 above. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), December 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (8) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Msambweni) Severe (3) (11) vegetation Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale Garissa (Lagdera) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) deficit Kilifi (Magarini) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga) Lamu (Lamu West) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) Moderate (8) (31) vegetation Garissa, Kitui, Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township, ,Dadaab) Kilifi (Magarini) Kitui ( Kitui deficit Lamu, Mandera, East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West, Kitui-Rural, Kitui-South) Kwale (Lungalunga, Marsabit, Taita Matuga, Msambweni, Kinango) Lamu (Lamu East) Mandera( Mandera East, Lafey, Taveta, Tana River, Mandera South, Mandera West) Marsabit (Laisaimis, Moyale, North Horr) Meru( Igembe North, Igembe South), Samburu (Samburu East) Taita Taveta( Voi, Mwatate)Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Wajir (Wajir East, Wajir North, Eldas, Tarbaj) Normal (7) (24) vegetation Embu, Kajiado, Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) greenness Laikipia, Makueni, Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-East, Kajiado-South) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui Meru, Samburu, West) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu East) Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (Igembe Central, Tigania East, Tigania west) Narok (Narok-East), Nyeri (Township) Samburu (Samburu North) Taita Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka) Turkana (Turkana North) Wajir (Wajir East, Tarbaj, Eldas) Vegetation (5) (39) greenness Baringo, Narok, Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Above normal Nyeri, Turkana, Tiaty) Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-West, Kajiado-North) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia( Laikipia East, Laikipia West) Makueni (Kaiti, Mbooni) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, North Imenti, South Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Mathira, Othaya, Tetu) Samburu (Samburu West)Tharaka Nithi (Maara) Turkana (Turkana Central, Turkana East, Loima, Turkana West, Turkana South) Wajir (Wajir North) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The pasture and browse condition in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally fair to poor except in Taita-Taveta that reported good browse condition attributed to the minimal OND rainfall showers, as shown in Table 2. Further, the pasture and browse condition are on worsening trend as result of poor performance of the previous long rains season and poor rains experienced in OND across ASAL counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, December 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Embu Garissa Baringo Taita Taveta Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Embu Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Kajiado Kwale Kitui Marsabit Kilifi Mandera Laikipia Turkana Kitui Marsabit Lamu Wajir Kwale Samburu Makueni Meru Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Narok Lamu Turkana Nyeri Makueni Meru Wajir Taita Taveta Narok West Pokot Tana River Nyeri Samburu Tana River Livestock body condition Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor with exception of Taita-Taveta and Lamu which reported good body conditions as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 long and short rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse. The livestock body condition is on a declining trend as compared to previous month. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, December 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Taita Taveta Isiolo Baringo Lamu Isiolo Embu Kwale Embu Taita Taveta Kwale Laikipia Kajiado Mandera Garissa Mandera Kilifi Marsabit Kajiado Marsabit Kitui Tana River Kilifi Samburu Lamu Turkana Kitui Tana River Makueni Wajir Laikipia Turkana Meru Makueni Wajir Narok Meru Nyeri Narok Tharaka Nithi West Nyeri Pokot Samburu Milk production Milk production was below average. However, some counties are on an improving while others are in a worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season and persistent dry period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, December 2021 Milk Makueni Narok Baringo Embu Garissa Baringo Production Tana River Embu Isiolo Laikipia Kwale Garissa Kajiado Marsabit Narok Isiolo Kilifi Samburu Turkana Kajiado Kitui Taita Taveta Wajir Kilifi Lamu West Pokot Kitui Makueni Kwale Mandera Laikipia Meru Mandera Tana River Marsabit Tharaka Meru Nithi Taita Taveta Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices are on declining trend as compared to the last month mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is poor as illustrated in Table 5.The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, Tana River, West Pokot and Tharaka Nithi reported above normal LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, December 2021 Cattle Tana River Baringo Embu Embu Baringo Kitui Prices Tharaka-Nithi Kajiado Garissa Kajiado Garissa Narok West-Pokot Lamu Kajiado Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Kilifi Kilifi Lamu Isiolo Kitui Meru Makueni Taita-Taveta Laikipia Narok Mandera Wajir Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Marsabit Tana River Samburu Meru Tharaka-Nithi Taita-Taveta Nyeri Wajir Turkana Narok West-Pokot Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of December, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were below LTA except in Embu, Kilifi, Narok, Taita Taveta and West Pokot counties that recorded above LTA. The goat prices are declining as result of poor body condition and thus need for close monitoring. Table 6.0: Goat prices, December 2021 Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsenin Goat Prices Embu Makueni Baringo Embu Kitui Baringo Kilifi Laikipia Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Garissa Narok Tharaka-Nithi Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Kwale Taita-Taveta Kajiado Kilifi Meru Marsabit West Pokot Kitui Lamu Makueni Samburu Turkana Kwale Narok Taita Taveta Lamu Nyeri Tana River Mandera Tharaka-Nithi West Pokot Wajir Marsabit Livestock Mortality During the reporting period, Baringo,Turkana,Garissa,Isiolo,Kitui,Laikipia, Narok ,Mandera, Samburu and Marsabit counties reported livestock mortality as result of starvation and diseases as shown in table 7 below; Table 7 showing Livestock Mortality County Cause of mortality Hot spots Baringo Diseases Baringo North and Tiaty sub counties Garissa Dehydration and starvation Whole county Isiolo Dehydration and starvation Oldonyiro, Kinna, Sericho and Cherab wards Kitui East Coast Fever (ECF). Nzambani, Zombe and Kanyangi wards Anaplasmosis Laikipia Drought Mukogodo West, Sosian and Olmoran wards Turkana Starvation, dehydration and disease Pastoral and Fisheries sites like Kaeris, Kalokol and Kalapata Mandera Starvation and diseases Entire county Marsabit severe drought and livestock disease Entire county Narok Predation Ntuka and oldonyo Narasha Samburu Starvation, Diseases Entire county March to May (MAM) long rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas however, land preparations and planting were ongoing in Kitui, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Embu (mbeere), and Taita taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale. Farmers have been advised to plant early maturing crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in December as compared to the previous month of November as demonstrated in Table 8, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and increasing as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 8.0.Maize prices Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Kilifi Kajiado Tana Embu Baringo Laikipia Prices Embu Lamu River Kilifi Garissa Lamu Garissa Meru Tana River Isiolo Makueni Isiolo Nyeri Kajiado West Pokot Kitui Turkana Kitui Kwale Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Narok Meru Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Samburu Wajir Taita-Taveta West Pokot Tharaka-Nithi WATER ACCESS Access to water for households Distances to household water points in 15 counties were above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a slight decrease in distance to household water source. The decrease in average distances to water points for households is due to the slight rains received during the month of December. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor rainfall performance is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, December 2021 Distance from Embu Baringo Garissa Embu Baringo Turkana households to Kajiado Samburu Isiolo Garissa Kwale West Pokot main water Kilifi Tana River Kitui Isiolo Laikipia sources Kwale Makueni Kajiado Mandera Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Marsabit Lamu Kitui Narok Mandera Lamu Marsabit Makueni Meru Meru Narok Nyeri Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Tana River West Pokot Wajir Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas has improved across the counties. 97 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at stable and worsening trend as shown in table 10.0. Table 10.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, December 2021 Distance from Baringo Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Embu Laikipia Baringo livestock Embu Kitui Garissa Mandera Marsabit grazing area to Garissa Isiolo Narok main water Isiolo Kajiado Turkana sources Kajiado Kilifi West Pokot Kwale Kitui Laikipia Kwale Lamu Lamu Makueni Makueni Mandera Meru Marsabit Nyeri Meru Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River Terms of trade Table 11 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). The below average TOT is as result of increasing maize prices compared to decreasing livestock prices(goat prices) as result of poor livestock body condition Table 11.0: Terms of trade, December 2021 Terms of Kilifi Baringo Embu Garissa Baringo trade (ToT) Kwale Embu Isiolo Makueni Kitui Makueni Garissa Kajiado Narok Laikipia Narok Isiolo Kilifi Samburu Lamu Tana-River Kajiado Kwale Taita-Taveta Marsabit Kitui Mandera Wajir Turkana Laikipia Meru West-Pokot Mandera Tana-River Marsabit Tharaka-Nithi Taita-Taveta Health and nutrition Table 12 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. In comparison to the previous month,the trend of MUAC was stable in most counties. Baringo, Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Samburu and Tana River have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the five counties was attributed to the continued reduction in milk consumption, decline in terms of trade and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services as result of Covid-19 pandemic. Kilifi, Narok, Samburu, Tharaka-Nithi, and Turkana counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 12.0 that requires close monitoring. Kajiado, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Nyeri and Tana River counties recorded an improvement in trend Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), December2021 Baringo Embu Isiolo Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Garissa Kilifi Kajiado Makueni Embu Narok MUAC Mandera Laikipia Kwale Mandera Garissa Samburu Marsabit Lamu Makueni Meru Kitui Tharaka-nithi Narok Meru Tharaka-nithi Nyeri Kwale Turkana Samburu Taita-Taveta Turkana Tana River Laikipia Tana River Wajir Lamu West-Pokot Taita-Taveta Drought phase classification Table 13 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of December 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (11) counties; Embu, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni), Taita-Taveta, Tana-River, Tharaka-Nithi, Laikipia, Baringo, Kajiado, Narok and Samburu are in the alert drought phase. Two (2) counties; Makueni and West-Pokot are in in the normal drought phase, whereas Garissa, Kilifi, Lamu, Wajir, Isiolo, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit, and Turkana are at an alarm phase however Kitui recorded the recovery phase. During the month under review, eleven (11) counties reported an improving trend, two (2) counties recorded stable trend while ten (10) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of poor rains received during this season. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, December 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Makueni West-Pokot Alert Embu (Mbeere) Laikipia Baringo Meru North Kajiado Nyeri (Kieni) Narok Taita-Taveta Samburu Alarm Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kwale Lamu Mandera Wajir Marsabit Recovery Kitui Recommended Interventions Table 14 showing recommended interventions for scale up across various sectors Sector Interventions Counties Food and safety Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers Isiolo, Marsabit, Turkana, Wajir, nets targeting households which are currently food insecure as a Samburu, Garissa, Mandera and result of the prevailing drought stress Tana River Upscale cash transfer programs Livestock Vaccination against, CCPP, LSD and PPR. Baringo, Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Pasture seeds for rangeland reseeding Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Voluntary destocking Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Taita Upscale of livestock insurance programme Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi Water Water trucking Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Water treatment drugs Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Purchase new water boozers Lamu, Meru (North), Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi Health and Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Baringo, nutrition Supply of essential drugs Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Meru Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use (North), Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Supplementary Food (RUSF). Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Surge kit activation Turkana, Wajir, west Pokot SMART Survey to ascertain the level of malnutrition Agriculture Support household with water harvesting skills Embu, Baringo, Relief foodcash transfer Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Support expansion of area under irrigation Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Meru (North), Narok, Nyeri, Education Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding Makueni, Mandera, Meru (North), secondary schools Narok, Nyeri Timely provision of school meals Peace and security Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and Isiolo, Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, resource use agreements. Garissa, Tana River, West Pokot, Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone Lamu counties Support local peace building and conflict resolution mechanisms Coordination Update contingency plan Garissa, Kilifi Close monitoring of drought situation Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th December 2021 BARINGO County The entire county and three of its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation 69.16 52.34 greenness which was a stable trend during the month of December. The rest of 87.43 74.64 the sub-counties deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness as compared to the previous month of November. Eldama 83.15 76.47 Mogotio 62.88 41.92 North 72.34 56.36 South 55.1 41.44 Tiaty 69.33 49.37 MANDERA County The county and four of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit 34.18 24.19 during the month under review. Mandera East and South deteriorated from Banissa 36.87 33.79 moderate to severe vegetation deficit during the month of December. M East 28.13 16.68 Lafey 30.35 20.25 M North 37.1 28.36 M South 34.11 19.65 M West 34.54 24.12 TURKANA County The county and almost all of its sub counties recorded Above Normal and normal 56.03 42.89 vegetation greenness in the month of December which was a decline for most T Central 59.46 49.32 areas. Turkana North deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. T. East 52.46 39.02 T. Loima 78.63 63.88 T. North 42.19 30.1 T. South 57.9 46.63 T. West 59.74 44.31 MARSABIT County The county and three of its sub-counties recorded a severe vegetation deficit 25 17.32 during the month of December which is a deteriorating trend as compared to the Laisaimis previous month. Saku deteriorated from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. 23.39 16.48 Moyale 23.13 17.1 N. Horr 25.78 17.45 36.14 24.63 WAJIR County The County and five of its sub counties recorded severe and extreme vegetation 24.03 12.73 deficit during the month under review. Wajir North remained stable at moderate W East vegetation deficit. 26.96 13.26 W. Eldas 22 12.12 W. North 34.76 21.21 W. South 18.63 9.03 W. Tarbaj 31.88 16.47 W West 17.56 8.74 SAMBURU County The county was at moderate vegetation deficit while Samburu East deteriorated 39.15 29.05 from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. Samburu North and West recorded S East normal vegetation greenness during the month of December. 28.13 18.92 S. North 47.63 37 S. West 54.95 42.99 GARISSA County The county and four of its Sub counties were at Severe vegetation deficit band 25.01 17.45 during the month under review. Lagdera worsened from severe to extreme Balambala vegetation deficit. Ijara remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. 20.5 11.21 Daadab 25.69 16.77 25.83 19.11 Ijara 30.24 25.11 Lagdera 18.99 9.09 Dujis 22.07 13.53 ISIOLO County The county and Isiolo North recorded a severe vegetation deficit while Isiolo 18.51 10.28 South recorded Extreme vegetation deficit during the month of December. I. North 19.28 11.04 I. South 17.34 9.11 TANA RIVER County The county and two of its sub-counties were at severe vegetation deficit during 24.61 19.14 the month under review. Garsen remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. 22.19 15.44 Galole 23.73 18.98 Garsen 27.21 22.38 KAJIADO County The County and three of its sub-counties recorded a moderate vegetation deficit 44.79 34.79 during the month under review. Kajiado North remained stable at above normal greenness while Kajiado West deteriorated from above normal to normal 37.48 28.29 K. Central vegetation greenness. 41.63 34.14 K. East 52.01 51.04 K. North 42.18 32.45 K. South 52.22 40.25 K. West LAIKIPIA County The County and two of its sub-counties remained stable at normal vegetation 46.71 35.35 greenness, while Laikipia North deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate 50.1 47.64 vegetation deficit during the month under review. L. East 38.67 29.45 L. North 60.13 40.47 L. West THARAKA County The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a decline when 35.83 29.54 NITHI compared to the previous month of November. Chuka and Maara remained stable at normal and Above normal vegetation greenness. Tharaka deteriorated from 49.07 45.75 Chuka moderate to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. 56.32 62.5 Maara 24.29 12.9 Tharaka WEST County The vegetation greenness was above normal for all the sub-counties. This was a 72.27 56.91 POKOT notable stable trend in comparison to the previous month with declining VCI values. 69.2 50.44 Kacheliba 78.93 64.23 Kapenguria 82.71 77.55 Pokot South 66.08 50.31 Sigor EMBU County The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable during the month of 46.99 48.57 December with Normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta and Runyenjes sub- counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness with improving 55.72 63.82 Manyatta VCI values. 45.83 44.07 Mbeere North 41.31 41.94 Mbeere South Runyenjes 61.06 66.38 COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month as month as values at 28th at 26th (3- Nov 2021 Dec 2021 month) 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit County The county and four of its sub-counties were at severe and extreme vegetation 29.68 19.03 deficit which was a decline when compared to the previous month of November. 45.22 22.93 The rest of the sub-counties were at moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui Central 30.96 16.15 Kitui East Mwingi 22.59 8.31 KITUI 17.38 8.48 Mwingi North Mwingi West 33.76 21.01 Kitui Rural 24.96 10.17 33.79 26.99 Kitui South 39.62 23.75 Kitui West County The county and five of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit 44.59 29.99 during the month of December. Kaiti and mbooni deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness. 66.58 43.03 Kaiti 39.61 26.21 Kibwezi East 42.64 32.14 Kibwezi West 49.82 34.42 MAKUENI Kilome 38.79 24.66 Makueni Mbooni 56.0 33.5 County The county and six of its sub-counties were at normal and above normal 42.43 41.62 vegetation greenness during the month under review. Igembe North remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while Igembe Central deteriorated from 51.23 54.5 Buuri normal to moderate vegetation deficit. Igembe South deteriorated from moderate 53.33 54.5 to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Central Imenti Igembe 35.14 25.58 28.94 22.92 Igembe North MERU 26.7 12.83 Igembe South North Imenti 55.99 61.77 South Imenti 60.66 68.16 40.31 42.23 Tigania East 44.2 45.74 Tigania West County 56.82 52.15 The county and almost all of its sub counties remained stable at above normal NYERI 51.65 47.27 vegetation greenness. Tetu remained stable at normal greenness. Kieni Kieni deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness during the month of 60.05 50.57 December. Mathira 62.77 60.55 Mukurweini 69.13 65.67 68.84 66.17 Othaya 47.6 43.1 County The vegetation condition in the county and all its sub-counties was at extreme 10.17 2.15 vegetation deficit during the month under review. 6.5 -0.31 Ganze 7.48 1.68 Kaloleni 14.19 4.67 Magarini KILIFI Malindi 1.7 -4.45 Kilifi-North 9.93 5.02 -0.48 -5.27 Rabai Kilifi-South -8.75 -14.22 The county and all its sub-counties deteriorated from severe to extreme vegetation 13.58 3.85 County deficit during the month under review. 12.36 5.32 Kinango KWALE Lungalunga 15.97 4.99 16.82 1.05 Matuga 8.23 -12.21 Msambweni County The County and its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit during the 20.88 13.47 month of December which was a deteriorating trend as compared to the 28.41 18.81 previous month of November. LAMU Lamu East 16.53 10.38 Lamu West County The County and two of its sub-counties were at moderate vegetation deficit during 34.05 22.22 TAITA TAVETA the month of December. Wundanyi remained stable at normal vegetation 31.61 20.78 Mwatate greenness while Voi deteriorated from moderate vegetation deficit to severe 39.87 26.39 deficit during the month under review. Taveta 31.08 19.71 Wundanyi 48.39 35.97 County 56.72 46.9 42.22 33.63 Narok-East 84.65 75.03 There was a decline in vegetation cover as the county and three of its sub-counties Emurua Dikirr deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness. Emurua Dikirr and Kilgoris 74.86 68.29 remained stable at above normal greenness during the month under review. Narok Kilgoris NAROK East deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the Narok-North 52.28 49.13 month of December. 50.6 40.32 Narok-South 60.18 45.44 Narok-West Table 16.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 16).The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification