October 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The impacts of the October to December 2023 short rains season, which is characterised by El Nino phenomenon, has been realised in all Arid and Semi-Arid counties. Twenty (20) counties reported Normal drought phase in October. They include Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Marsabit, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Tana River, Turkana, Kajiado, West Pokot and Isiolo. Three (3) counties including Samburu, Laikipia and Taita Taveta are in Alert Phase but positive impacts of the ongoing rains are reversing the drought situation. Figure 1 shows the drought phase classification in October 2023. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification - October 2023 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 October 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the October 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties received above average rainfall due to the ongoing El Nino episode that had onset in the second week of October. The Pastoral Northeast counties including Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and Garissa and Pastoral Northwest counties comprising Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received the highest amounts of rainfall ranging between 71mm to 201mm. The Southeast Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui received relatively high amounts of rainfall in October ranging between 21mm to 201mm whereas the Agro-pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good amounts between 50mm to 100mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture Figure 2: October 2023 Rainfall Performance counties - Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu - received low amounts ranging between 21mm as shown Figure 2. 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for November 2023 The Pastoral Northeast livelihood zone (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) is forecasted at probabilities of above average rainfall. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience above average rainfall while Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasting at increased probabilities of above average rainfall. The Agro-pastoral livelihood zones including Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia and Baringo are forecasted to experience above average rainfall. The coastal marginal agriculture counties (Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale) counties are forecasted to recieve above average rainfall, while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are forecasted to receive above average rainfall with eastern parts of Marsabit and Samburu to received increased probabilities of above average rainfall. The rainfall outlook for November is illustrated in Figure 3. 1.1.3 Flooding Some ASAL counties including Marsabit, Isiolo, Samburu, Wajir, Garissa, Mandera and Tana River experienced flooding. In Mandera and Wajir counties, Bute and Elwak Figure 3. November 2023 Rainfall forecast. areas were submerged. Flooding in Garissa County resulted to washing away of a section of the Garissa - Modogashe highway. Flooding in Tana River County, especially along River Tana, led to displacement after houses were submerged. Some families lost livestock in the flooding incidents. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Despite the time lag between the precipitation period and vegetation regeneration, regeneration was evident in October. Generally, the vegetation condition in October showed great improvement when compared to September. Figure 4: Vegetation Conditions trends for September and October 2023 The month of October registered improvement in vegetation condition across ASAL counties compared to the previous month (September). This is linked to the ongoing short rains season, which has been linked to El Nino phenomenon. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Three (3) counties including; Taita Taveta, Laikipia and Samburu recorded Moderate vegetation deficit with prospects of improvement. The following six (6) counties including; Turkana, West Pokot, Kajiado, Kilifi, Tana River and Garissa recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following fourteen (14) counties including; Baringo, Narok, Marsabit, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Kitui, Makueni, Lamu and Kwale recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in October 2023 is better when compared to the previous month, September 2023 as shown in Figure 4. Table 1 provides the situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in October 2023. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) vegetation deficit Moderate (3) (13) vegetation Samburu, Taita Turkana (South, East) Garissa (Balambala, Township) deficit Taveta, Laikipia Samburu (East, North), Tana River (Bura), Kilifi (Ganze), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Voi, Wundanyi, Taveta), Laikipia (East, North, Laikipia Normal (5) (29) vegetation Turkana, Garissa, Turkana (Central, West, Loima), Wajir (West), Marsabit greenness Tana River, Kajiado, (Laisamis, Moyale), Garissa (Fafi, Daadab), Isiolo (North, West Pokot South), Tana River (Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (Central, East, South), Kitui (Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Makueni (Kibwezi East), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Magarini), Taita-Taveta (Taveta), Narok (Kilgoris, East, North), Narok (Emurua Dikirr), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria and Sigor), Laikipia (Laikipia West) Above (15) (61) normal Baringo, Mandera, Baringo (Central, North, Eldama Ravine), Mandera (South, Vegetation Wajir, Marsabit, North, East, Lafey, Banissa and West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, greenness Garissa, Embu, Kitui, Eldas, South and East), Marsabit (North Horr, Saku), Garissa Makueni, Meru, (Ijara, Lagdera), Kajiado (North), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere Nyeri, Kilifi, Kwale, North, South and Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, Lamu, Narok Isiolo South, West and Mwingi Central), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi, West, Kilome, Makueni and Mbooni), Meru ( Buuri, Central- Imenti, Igembe , Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti ,South Imenti Tigania East ,Tigania West),Nyeri(Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Malindi, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga Msambweni), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Narok (West, South, Emurua Dikirr), West Pokot (Pokot South), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and Browse Condition The state of pasture and browse was fair to good across arid and semi-arid counties as shown in Table 2. The ongoing short rains seasons have resulted in regeneration of pasture and browse whose condition is normal compared to similar periods in normal years. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition in October 2023. Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Kilifi Kitui Baringo Garissa Lamu Laikipia Garissa Isiolo Meru Makueni Isiolo Kajiado Wajir Mandera Kajiado Kitui West Pokot Narok Kilifi Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Lamu Makueni Samburu Meru Mandera Taita Taveta Wajir Narok Tana River West Pokot Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Samburu Turkana Taita Taveta Embu 1.3.2 Livestock Body Condition Thirty-six percent (36) of ASAL counties reported good livestock body condition for cattle while the others registered fair conditions. The body condition for goats was good in 59 of the counties and fair in the rest. Generally, the body condition of most livestock is above normal compared to similar periods during a normal year. This is attributed to due to good improvement in vegetation. The ongoing rains will enable further improvement especially for cattle as pasture and browse conditions improve. Table 3 shows livestock body condition in October. Table 3: Livestock body condition in October 2023. Cattle Goats Baringo Kajiado Kitui Baringo Garissa Kilifi Laikipia Garissa Isiolo Lamu Makueni Isiolo Kitui Meru Mandera Kajiado Laikipia Narok Nyeri Kilifi Makueni Wajir Samburu Lamu Mandera West Pokot Tana River Meru Nyeri Marsabit Turkana Narok Samburu Embu Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Wajir Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Turkana Marsabit 1.3.3 Milk Production There was an increase in the trend of milk production in October compared to the previous month in the majority of counties. Six counties showed an improving trend, with the exceptions being Garissa, Makueni, Meru and Tana River, which experienced a worsening trend as result of flooding, affecting the feeding regime. The details of milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties are shown in Table 4. Table 4: Milk Production in October 2023. Milk Isiolo Kajiado Baringo Kajiado Baringo Garissa Production Lamu Kitui Garissa Laikipia Isiolo Makueni Mandera Meru Laikipia Lamu Kilifi Meru Narok Makueni Mandera Kitui Tana River Tharaka Nyeri Narok Samburu Nithi Samburu Nyeri Taita Turkana Taita Taveta Taveta Wajir Tana River Tharaka West Pokot Nithi Kilifi Turkana Pokot 1.3.4 Livestock Diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included unconfirmed cases of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and Foot and Mouth. 1.3.5 Cattle Prices Most of the ASAL counties (91) experienced above-average cattle prices in October. None of the counties recorded below long-term average prices in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. The improvements are as result of enhanced rains, which have led to improved body condition. None of the County recorded a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5: Cattle prices in October 2023. Cattle Baringo Taita Taveta Kajiado Baringo Prices Garissa West Pokot Laikipia Garissa Isiolo Narok Isiolo Kajiado Nyeri Kilifi Kilifi Wajir Kitui Kitui Lamu Laikipia Makueni Lamu Mandera Makueni Meru Mandera Samburu Meru Taita Narok Taveta Nyeri Tana River Samburu Tharaka Tana Nithi River Turkana Tharaka West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices All of the counties reported prices that were above normal for the period, except Lamu and Nyeri, whose prices were below the long-term average. Stability was observed in the market prices of goats across most ASAL counties, with a tendency towards improvement during the month under review. The good body condition driven by browse and water availability was the major factor that influenced the observed price positivity over the month under analysis. Table 6: Goat prices in October 2023. Above LTA At Below Improving Stable Worsening Goat Baringo, Garissa Embu Baringo Embu, Kitui, Isiolo, Garissa Kajiado Prices Kwale, Kajiado, Isiolo Kitui Kilifi, Laikipia Kilifi Makueni Lamu, Narok, Lamu Marsabit Makueni, Mandera, Laikipia Meru Marsabit, Meru, Wajir Narok Nyeri, Samburu, Kwale Taita Taveta Taita Taveta, Tana Tharaka Nithi River, Tharaka Turkana Nithi, Turkana, West Pokot Wajir, West Pokot Mandera 1.4 Crop Production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture and south east marginal agriculture cluster. Table 7 summarises the current state of crop production in these clusters. Table 7: Status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Kilifi First weeding in some parts of the county. Marginal Planted cassava crop recorded good condition. Agriculture Harvesting of vegetables was also recorded as supply in markets remained high. Kwale There were no crops in farms as harvesting was complete and majority of the households were planting and preparing land for the short rains season. Kitui Normal land preparation and planting for the short rains season was ongoing in most areas across the livelihood zones. South East Crops were at germination stage in areas which undertook early Marginal planting. Agriculture Makueni Farmers across the livelihood zones were busy preparing their farms in readiness for the upcoming 2023 October to December short rains. Tharaka Nithi Most farmers were weeding their crops while a few were still expanding their land ready for the short rainy season planting 1.4.1 Maize Prices Twenty-two counties (95) recorded above long term average maize prices. However, 16 counties including Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Wajir, Baringo, Kilifi, Lamu, Makueni, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Meru and West Pokot recorded a stable trend resulting from ongoing harvests. Slight improvement was recorded compared to the previous months as illustrated in Table 8. The trend observed over the month could be attributed to improved maize availability occasioned by ongoing harvests within the ASALs and other adjacent counties, coupled with external and cross-border imports. Table 8: Maize prices in October 2023 Maize Baringo, Embu, Lamu Kitui, Kwale Isiolo Embu Prices Garissa, Isiolo, Laikipia, Kajiado Garissa Kajiado, Kilifi, Marsabit Mandera Narok Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Mandera, Nyeri Marsabit, Meru Baringo Narok, Wajir Kilifi Samburu Lamu West Pokot Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to Water for Households Household distances to water sources has improved across ASAL counties, with only six counties reporting above LTA.The distances in the six counties is expected to improve with the ongoing enhanced rains. Distance to water sources in arid counties stood between 2.2 and 8.5 kilometers, with Isiolo recording the lowest while Samburu reported the highest distances. On the other hand, distances in the semi-arid counties ranged between 1.2 and 7.5 kilometers, with Meru recording lowest and Kitui recording highest distances in respect to the previous month. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources in October 2023. Distance Garissa Kwale, Baringo Baringo Kwale Garissa from Kilifi Turkana Embu Embu Turkana Kilifi househol Kitui Wajir Isiolo Isiolo Wajir Kitui ds to Nyeri West Kajiado Kajiado West- Laikipia main Samburu Pokot Laikipia Lamu Pokot Nyeri water Taita- Lamu Makueni Samburu sources Taveta Makueni Mandera Taita Taveta Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Meru Meru Narok Narok, Tana River Tana River Tharaka Nithi Tharaka 1.5.2 Access to Water for Livestock The livestock trekking distance from grazing areas to water sources has improved across ASAL counties, with only 6 counties reporting above LTA but on improving trend as shown in Table 10. The average distance traveled by livestock from grazing areas to water points in arid counties ranged from 6.8 to 14.9 kilometers, with Baringo reporting the shortest distance and Garissa reporting the longest. The distance in semi-arid counties ranged between 1.7 and 8.3 kilometers, with Meru County recording the lowest and Kitui the highest distance. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, October 2023 Distance Kilifi Baringo Embu Embu Baringo from Kitui Taita Isiolo Isiolo Taita livestock Nyeri Taveta Kajiado Kajiado Taveta grazing Samburu Turkana Lamu Lamu Turkana area to Garissa West Kwale Kwale West main Laikipia Pokot Mandera Mandera Pokot water Narok Marsabit Marsabit Narok sources Makueni Meru Meru Makueni Tana River Tana River Thara Tharaka Nithi Nithi Wajir Wajir Meru Kilifi Kitui 1.6 Terms of Trade The terms of trade were favourable and on improving trend compared to the previous month, with 65 of counties reporting improving trend. The improving terms of trade are as result of improved livestock prices, coupled with ongoing harvests across the counties. The terms of trade are likely to improve as result of ongoing enhanced rain as illustrated in Table 11. Table 11: Terms of Trade in October 2023. Terms of Garissa Baringo Baringo Lamu trade Isiolo Embu Isiolo Taita (ToT) Lamu Kajiado Kajiado Taveta Mandera Kilifi Kitui West Narok Kitui Kwale Pokot Tana River Laikipia Laikipia Tharaka- Marsabit Mandera Nithi Nyeri Marsabit Samburu Narok Turkana Taita Taveta Nyeri Wajir West-Pokot Samburu Makueni Meru Kwale Tana River Tharaka- Tukana 1.7 Health and Nutrition The nutrition situation in ASAL counties is generally stable and expected to improve with ongoing enhanced rains. The current poor health and nutrition status is as result of previous failed seasons, hence livelihoods are still on recovery mode, and low milk production at household level due to reduced livestock numbers as shown in Table 12. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) in October 2023. Baringo Embu Kajiado Kilifi Kajiado Garissa Kwale Kitui MUAC Kitui Kilifi Marsabit Mandera Kwale Marsabit Wajir Baringo Laikipia Narok Embu Lamu Samburu Taita Makueni Tharaka Taveta Mandera Nithi West Nyeri Wajir Pokot Taita West Tharaka Taveta Pokot Nithi Tana River Meru Garissa Turkana Isiolo Narok River 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, three counties including Samburu, Taita Taveta and Laikipia are classified at the Alert drought phase while 20 counties - Baringo, Nyeri, Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Mandera, Isiolo, Embu, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Meru, Makueni, Kajiado, Tana River, Garissa and Kilifi as illustrated in Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification in October 2023. Drought Trend status Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Baringo, Turkana, Mandera, Isiolo, Embu, - Marsabit, Wajir, Narok Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Makueni,, Kajiado, Tana Pokot, Nyeri(Kieni) River, Garissa, Kilifi Alert - Samburu, Taita Taveta, - Alarm - - - Emergency - - - Recovery - - - 3.0 Recommendations a) Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and cash transfers targeting households exposed to flood risks. b) Livestock sector Monitoring on livestock disease outbreaks, especially those associated with wet conditions. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. c) Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of water treatment tabs. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof catchment harvest. d) Health and nutrition sector Support towards hygiene and sanitation promotion. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). e) Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. f) Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource-use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict-prone counties. g) Coordination Sensitise communities and enhance awareness on enhanced rains and associated negative impacts. Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) for effective response coordination. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th October 2023. Administrative Unit Vegetation Drought CategoriesRemarks Greenness COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month month values as at as at 29th (3-month) 27th oct 50 Above normal vegetation Sept 2023 greenness. 2023 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness. 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit. 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit. 10 Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 41.6 52.07 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October, with 68.57 73.32 improvement registered across the county. Central North 52.43 61.8 42.8 54.32 Ravine 67.8 68.81 Mogotio 28.89 39.24 Tiaty 30.95 44.35 MANDERA County 54.14 60.57 The county remained stable with above normal vegetation greenness Lafey 48.41 54.54 compared to previous month of September. North 49.65 58.58 Banissa 41.51 56.11 West 45.62 56.01 South 74.6 73.54 East 69.76 63.4 TURKANA County 32.52 35.4 The county recorded Normal vegetation greenness in October compared East 23.34 28.07 to moderate vegetation in September, with an improvement in vegetation. South 28.31 29.72 The condition in Turkana East and South remained stable. Loima 36 41.47 Central 49.99 47.81 West 35.06 38.85 North 30.48 32.42 MARSABIT County 49.06 50.08 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October Laisamis 42.15 43.28 compared to Normal vegetation greenness in September. Improvement Moyale 44.01 43.58 was experienced across the county. North Horr 52.95 54.53 Saku 72.24 68.62 WAJIR County 59.46 55.01 The county maintained above normal vegetation greenness in October. Tarbaj 66.42 67.32 North 57.63 57.41 52.42 53.42 West 75.09 47.11 Eldas 66.42 63.26 49.96 58.63 SAMBURU County 28.77 27.7 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit in October compared to East 26.93 26.8 previous month. North 27.99 27.59 39.1 31.81 GARISSA County 47.35 46.09 When compared to the previous month, the vegetation greenness in the Balambala 24.73 21.49 county remained stable. Balambala and Garissa Township had a Township 32.67 30.89 moderate vegetation deficit. 44.72 56.22 Ijara Fafi 39.75 39.61 Lagdera 80.69 69.59 Dadaab 53.72 45.5 ISIOLO County 62.19 59.52 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness in October North 57.05 55.46 compared to the previous month of September. 70.05 65.72 TANA RIVER County 40.2 38.88 The county recorded normal vegetation deficit in October compared to the Bura 32.84 28.38 previous month, except Bura Sub-County, which recorded moderate Galole 42.68 39.4 vegetation deficit. Garsen 44.9 47.48 KAJIADO County 35.46 44.72 Vegetation greenness was normal in October compared to the previous Central 28.99 37.63 month. Kajiado Central and East saw a slight improvement from Moderate East 32.83 38.36 to Normal Vegetation. North 45.74 52.73 South 35.41 36.3 West 40.05 58.11 LAIKIPIA County 24.85 27.19 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. East 20.26 28.06 North 18.36 20.41 39.21 39.46 THARAKA County 56.56 56.46 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month NITHI Chuka 69.77 75.87 under review compared to previous months. Maara 72.86 77.6 Tharaka 46.3 42.39 WEST County 33.17 42.91 The county recorded Normal vegetation greenness in the month under POKOT Kacheliba 21.73 35.13 review as compared to moderate vegetation deficit in September. Slight Kapenguria 39 49.01 improvement was witnessed at the sub-counties from moderate to normal Pokot south 60.85 62.11 vegetation. Sigor 32.48 40.59 EMBU County 61.49 69.41 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the Manyatta 69.45 79.56 month under review. Mbeere north 65.71 71.5 Mbeere south 52.81 60.36 Runyenjes 75.47 87.22 County 54.07 71.91 The county recorded stability in vegetation cover at above normal KITUI Kitui central 74.48 62.29 vegetation greenness. Kitui east 74.22 73.16 Kitui rural 74.78 48.81 Kitui south 51.61 54.99 Kitui west 52.34 47.9 Mwingi central 55.88 35.33 Mwingi north 36.35 55.41 Mwingi west 47.29 71.91 County 60.45 59.84 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October Kaiti 88.99 87.62 compared to September. MAKUENI Kibwezi east 41.32 41.05 Kibwezi west 51.38 50.05 Kilome 64.99 65.39 Makueni 74.02 73.83 Mbooni 87.67 86.55 County 59.55 60 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness across the sub- Buuri 59.9 50.75 counties. Central Imenti 67.44 56.66 Igembe central 71.29 72.73 Igembe north 63.27 62.32 Igembe south 49.31 55.11 North Imenti 64.01 63.39 South Imenti 74.55 73.79 Tigania east 73.11 79.88 Tigania west 46.91 53.62 County 65.87 64.78 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October and NYERI Kieni 57.7 55.22 September, with stability across the county showing stability. Mathira 70.56 73.09 Mukurweini 82.84 80.53 Nyeri town 52.56 51.46 Othaya 82.17 85.78 Tetu 84.09 81.66 KILIFI County 49.62 41.72 The county maintained Normal vegetation green in the month of October, Ganze 44.25 32.89 as compared to September. However, Ganze Sub- County deteriorated Kaloleni 59.21 47.16 from normal vegetation to moderate vegetation deficit. Kilifi north 57.81 53.66 Kilifi south 57.91 53.78 Magarini 48.14 41.52 Malindi 61.8 53.29 Rabai 60.21 54.33 KWALE County 57.57 51.16 The vegetation condition index recorded above-normal vegetation Kinango 55.75 46.09 greenness in both October, and September respectively. Lunga 55.95 51.34 Matuga 69.19 70.57 Msambweni 56.93 60.64 LAMU County 63 70.39 The county and all sub-counties recorded stability in vegetation condition Lamu east 51.2 54.62 at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month. Lamu west 69.82 79.51 TAITA County 32.57 29.22 The county remained stable with moderate vegetation deficit in October TAVETA Mwatate 34.77 29.05 compared to the previous months. However, Taveta sub-county recorded Taveta 36.8 30.93 worsening trend from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. Voi 30.91 28.78 Wundanyi 23.72 26.64 County 45.73 56.7 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in October as NAROK Emurua Dikirr 62.21 75.88 opposed to normal vegetation greenness. This indicated an improvement. Kilgoris 40.91 57.84 Narok east 40.62 43.35 Narok north 53.98 46.37 Narok south 47.15 58.43 Narok west 43.79 63.92 Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system. Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Overview of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). 1. NORMAL indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental indicators indicators return to fluctuate outside seasonal norms expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are outside production indicators normal ranges fluctuate outside seasonal ranges Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification