March 2022 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance Review of February 2022 Rainfall Performance Sunny and dry weather conditions prevailed over most parts of the country during the month. However, a few areas including South-eastern lowlands and parts of Northeast (Marsabit) received above average rainfall in comparison with the February Long Term Means (LTMs). Northwestern, the Coast, and most of the North-eastern regions recorded near to below average rainfall. An analysis of rainfall up to 24th February 2022 indicates that Narok received the highest monthly rainfall total of 228.9mm (340.4).Most stations recorded less than Figure 1. February Rainfall performance 100mm in Moyale, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Lamu and Malindi. The month was characterized by a few isolated storms in different parts of the ASAL counties. Figure 1 shows the rainfall performance during the month under review. Rainfall Forecast for March 2022 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for March 2022 indicates that Counties in the North-Western Region including Turkana and Samburu will experience Sunny and dry conditions with occasional rainfall expected towards the end of the month. Counties in the North-Eastern Region including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo are expected to have occasional rainfall in few areas towards the end of the month. The onset of the long rains season is likely during the fourth week of Figure 2. March Rainfall forecast March to 1st week of April, 2022.Figure 2.0.indicates the March 2022 outlook. Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in February 2021 with that in February 2022. Generally, when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably worse. February 2021 February 2022 Figure 3.Maps Comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of February 2022 showed slight Improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of January 2022.The improvement is associated with the off-season rains that were received in the month of December, January and parts of February. The following 2 sub counties; Wajir (Eldas, Wajir East) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of priority interventions. The following three counties (3); Mandera, Wajir and Marsabit are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following Six (6) counties including; Baringo, Isiolo, Kwale, Laikipia, Samburu and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. The following Four (4) counties including; Kajiado, Kilifi, Narok and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following Ten (10) counties including; Embu, Garissa, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi, recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in February 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, February 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of February 2022 is provided in Table 1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), February 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (2) Wajir (Eldas, Wajir-East) Severe (3) (16) vegetation Mandera deficit Marsabit Baringo (Mogotio), Garissa (Lagdera), Isiolo (Isiolo North) Wajir Laikipia (Laikipia-West, Laikipia-North), Mandera (Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera-South, Mandera West), Marsabit (Laisamis), Samburu (Samburu-East), Wajir (Wajir-West, Wajir- North, Wajir-South, Tarbaj), West Pokot (Sigor) Moderate (6) (27) vegetation Baringo deficit Isiolo Baringo (Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty, Baringo Central) Kwale Garissa (Balambala), Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-West), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Kilifi-North, South, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga), Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North), Marsabit (Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Narok (Narok-East), Samburu (Samburu-North, Samburu-West), Turkana (Turkana East, Turkana North, Turkana West), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria) Normal (4) (15) vegetation Kajiado, Baringo (Eldama Ravine), Garissa (Dadaab), Isiolo (Isiolo South), greenness Kilifi, Kajiado (Kajiado-South), Kilifi (Ganze, Malindi), Kwale Narok, (Msambweni), Laikipia (Laikipia-East), Narok (Kilgoris, Narok- Turkana North, Narok-South, Narok-West), Taita-Taveta (Taveta), Turkana (Turkana-South), West Pokot (West-Pokot South) Vegetation (10) (53) greenness Embu Embu(Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Above Garissa Garissa(Fafi, Ijara, Township),Kajiado(Kajiado-East, Kajiado- normal Kitui North), Kilifi(Magarini),Kitui(Kitui-East, Kitui -central, Mwingi Lamu West, Mwingi North, Mwingi Central, Kitui-Rural, Kitui South, Makueni Kitui West),Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West),Makueni( Kaiti, Meru Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Nyeri Mbooni),Meru(Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe Taita- North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Taveta Tigania West),Narok( Emurua Dikirr),Nyeri( Kieni, Mathira, Tana River Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township), Taita-Taveta(Mwatate, Tharaka Voi, Wundanyi),Tana River(Bura, Galole, Garsen), Nithi Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions except Kitui which reported good conditions. The 48 percent of ASALs recorded poor pasture condition while 30 percent of the ASAls recorded poor browse condition. The poor pasture and browse condition is as result of previous failed seasons and poor performance of the 2021 short rains as shown in Table 2. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, February 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Embu Kitui Baringo Embu Kajiado Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Garissa Kitui Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Kilifi Laikipia Kwale Marsabit Kwale Mandera Lamu Nyeri Laikipia Marsabit Makueni Samburu Lamu Nyeri Meru Wajir Makueni Samburu Narok Meru Turkana Taita Taveta Narok Wajir Tana River Taita Taveta West Pokot Tharaka Tana River Nithi Tharaka Nithi Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable and fair to poor across most of ASAls. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor with exception of Embu, Kajiado, Kitui and Taita taveta which reported good body conditions. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor temporal and spatial performance of the 2021 short rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse as shown in table Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, February 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Garissa Embu Baringo Garissa Embu Isiolo Kilifi Kajiado Mandera Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Kwale Kitui Marsabit Kilifi Kitui Lamu Makueni Taita Taveta Kwale Taita Taveta Mandera Meru Laikipia Marsabit Narok Lamu Samburu Nyeri Makueni West Pokot Tana River Meru Tharaka Nithi Narok Turkana Nyeri Wajir Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Milk production Milk production was below average and generally below LTA and on worsening trend as compared to the previous months with 70 percent of ASALs recording milk production below average. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season and persistent dry spell period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, February 2022 Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsenin Milk Makueni Garissa Baringo Embu Baringo Isiolo Productio Tana River Laikipia Embu Kajiado Garissa Kilifi n Tharaka Narok Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Kwale Nithi Taita Kajiado Makueni Lamu Mandera Taveta Kilifi Marsabit Nyeri Kitui Meru Samburu Lamu Narok Tana River Kwale Taita Taveta Wajir Mandera Tharaka West Marsabit Nithi Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of February are stable compared to the previous month with 40 percent of the counties cattle prices below LTA as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, February 2022 Above LTA At LTA Below Improvin Stable Worsening LTA g Cattle Isiolo Embu Garissa Embu Garissa Baringo Prices Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Kajiado Isiolo Laikipia Kitui Makueni Laikipia Kitui Kilifi Mandera Lamu Nyeri Mandera Meru Lamu Nyeri Tana River Taita-Taveta Marsabit Marsabit Makueni Tharaka-Nithi Nyeri Tharaka- Meru Narok Meru Wajir West-Pokot Nithi Narok Samburu Taita-Taveta West-Pokot Samburu Tana River Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were stable as compared to the previous month with Embu,Kajiado,Kilifi,Kitui,Laikipia,Meru ,Narok, Tana river, Tharaka Nithi and West Pokot recording prices Above LTA while Baringo,Garissa,Lamu,Marsabit,Samburu,Turkana,Wajir and Nyeri(kieni) recording prices below LTA. Table 6.0: Goat prices February 2022 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Goat Embu Isiolo Baringo Embu Baringo Marsabit Prices Kajiado Kwale Garissa Kajiado Garissa West Pokot Kilifi Makueni Lamu Kwale Isiolo Kitui Taita-Taveta Mandera Kitui Kilifi laikipia Marsabit Makueni Laikipia Meru Samburu Tharaka- Lamu Narok Turkana Nithi Meru Tana-River Wajir Tana River Mandera Tharaka- Nyeri Narok Nithi Nyeri West Pokot Samburu Taita Taveta Livestock Mortality Livestock mortality was reported in some counties like Baringo, Narok, Samburu, Garissa, Isiolo,Turkana, Mandera and Marsabit which was majorly as a result of starvation and diseases. In Turkana County the mortalities were due to hypothermia which was also a case in Marsabit. October to November (OND) short rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas which resulted to poor crop production in counties like Kitui, Kilifi and Meru however harvesting was ongoing in some counties like Embu, Meru, Kitui, Makueni and Kilifi (Mangoes, pineapples and water melons) while crops were at poding and tussling stage in Taita taveta.Generally there was crop failure in marginal agricultural areas due to poor performance of the 2021 short rains season. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops and drought resistant crops. Maize prices In most countie, the price of maize were above avarage but on stable trend as compared to the previous month of January with 70 percent of ASAls reporting above avarage maize prices. The few counties of Embu(mbeere) and Meru North recorded an improvement due to the ongoing harvesting activity in the counties as demonstrated in Table 7.The current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, February 2022 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Garissa Lamu Embu Baringo Kwale Prices Embu Kajiado Meru Garissa Laikipia Isiolo Kilifi Isiolo Makueni Kitui Meru Kajiado Nyeri Kwale Tharaka Kilifi Wajir Laikipia Nithi Kitui Makueni Turkana Lamu Mandera Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Narok Narok Nyeri Samburu Samburu Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tana River Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot West Pokot WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 56 percent of counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is stability and decrease in distance to household water sources due to the rains received during the month of January and February. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, February 2022 Distance Baringo Embu Garissa Kajiado Embu Baringo from Kwale Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Garissa households Makueni Kajiado Narok Mandera Isiolo to main Mandera Kilifi Taita Kitui water Marsabit Kitui Taveta Kwale sources Meru Laikipia Tharaka Lamu Narok Lamu Nithi Makueni Nyeri Tharaka Marsabit Samburu Nithi Meru Taita Turkana Nyeri Taveta Samburu Tana River Tana River West Wajir Pokot West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas on worsening trend as compared to the previous month.65 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being on worsening trend attributed to poor recharge as result of poor performance of the season as shown in table Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, February 2022 Distance Baringo Kajiad Garissa Kajiado Embu Baringo from Embu o Kilifi Kwale Mandera Garissa livestock Isiolo Wajir Kitui Narok Taita Isiolo grazing area Kwale Lamu Wajir Taveta Kilifi to main Laikipia Tana River Kitui water Makueni Tharaka Laikipia sources Mandera Nithi Lamu Marsabit Makueni Meru Marsabit Narok Meru Nyeri Nyeri Samburu Samburu Taita Tana River Taveta Tharaka Nithi West West Pokot Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are stable but below the long-term average (LTA).78 percent of the counties ToT is below average. The below average ToT is as result of increasing maize price with decreasing livestock prices(goat).Table 10 indicates the current status of ToT across ASALS. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, February 2022 Indicato Current status Trend r Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of Kajiado Kilifi Baringo Embu Baringo Mandera trade Lamu Narok Embu Kajiado Garissa Marsabit (ToT) Tana-River Garissa Kitui Isiolo Narok Isiolo Kwale Kilifi Wajir Kitui Meru Laikipia West-Pokot Kwale Tana-River Lamu Laikipia Tharaka- Makueni Makueni Nithi Nyeri Mandera Samburu Marsabit Taita-Taveta Taita- Tharaka- Nithi West- Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The trend of MUAC is stable as compared to the previous month. Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita-Taveta and Tana River have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition in the counties was mostly attributed to the continued minimal milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Table 11.0 shows the children at risk of malnutrition during the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), February 2022 Baringo Embu Isiolo Kajiado Baringo Kwale Mandera Garissa Kajiado Kitui Embu Mandera MUAC Marsabit Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Garissa Marsabit Nyeri Laikipia Kwale Makueni Isiolo Samburu Samburu Lamu Makueni Narok Kilifi Wajir Taita- Meru Turkana Lamu taveta Narok Meru Tana River Tharaka- Nyeri Nithi Taita- Turkana Taveta Wajir Tana River West- Tharaka- Pokot Nithi Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of February 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (10) counties; Kitui, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni), Tharaka Nithi, Garissa, Kwale, Laikipia, Kilifi, Lamu and West-Pokot are in the alert drought phase two. Six (6) counties; Embu, Kajiado, Narok, Makueni, Taita taveta and Tana-River are in the normal drought phase, whereas seven(7) counties including Baringo,Turkana, Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu,Marsabit, and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, two (2) counties reported an improving trend, Five (5) counties recorded stable trend while sixteen (16) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of poor performance of the previous seasons. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, February 2022 Drought Trend status Improving (2) Stable (5) Worsening (16) Normal Embu Makueni Kajiado Taita-Taveta Narok Tana-River Alert Kitui Meru-North Kilifi Kwale Tharaka-Nithi Lamu Nyeri (Kieni) West-Pokot Garissa Alarm Baringo Isiolo Mandera Marsabit Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th February 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS BARINGO County The entire county and four of its sub-counties recorded 28.64 25.84 moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when 45.13 31.91 compared with the previous month. Mogotio remained Eldama 54.24 42.22 stable at severe vegetation deficit while Eldama deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation Mogotio 16.5 16.22 greenness. 29.96 26.17 22.95 26.38 Tiaty 25.74 23.79 MANDERA County The county recorded deterioration in vegetation condition 20.88 16.17 from moderate to severe in the month under review. Banissa 31.87 23.49 M East 12.47 10.81 Lafey 16.9 13.49 M North 26.33 20.36 M South 14.98 11.95 M West 20.29 15.5 TURKANA County The county recorded an improvement in vegetation 27.3 37.31 T Central greenness from moderate vegetation deficit to normal. 40.03 63.64 Turkana central and Loima sub-counties recorded above T. East 24.18 33.01 normal. T. Loima 41.05 60.16 T. North 17.37 23.0 T. South 32.21 43.89 T. West 26.06 30.32 MARSABIT County The county recorded a severe vegetation deficit during the 13.74 18.92 month of February which is a stable trend as compared to Laisaimis 11.28 12.7 the previous month. North Horr improved from Severe to moderate Moyale 21.15 23.03 N. Horr 12.81 20.82 21.79 29.12 WAJIR County The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and 13.94 14.89 extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review W East 11.01 9.51 with most remaining stable. Wajir East deteriorated from severe to extreme vegetation deficit. However, Wajir West W. Eldas 9.51 9.5 improved from Extreme to Severe vegetation deficit. W. North 18.45 16.84 W. South 15.84 19.16 W. Tarbaj 12.06 11.02 W West 9.72 11.4 SAMBURU County The county and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate 20.49 21 vegetation deficit during the month under review with an S East 16.71 18.85 improving trend. Samburu East remained stable at severe vegetation deficit. S. North 23.29 23.3 S. West 26.29 21.85 GARISSA County The county improved from normal vegetation greenness to 40.85 52.18 Above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 22.67 33.57 Daadab 31.64 35.23 55.52 69.69 Ijara 52.87 70 Lagdera 10.05 15.14 Dujis 60.52 79.25 ISIOLO County The county improved from severe to moderate vegetation 17.03 28.05 deficit during the month under review while Isiolo south I. North 11.25 17.57 improved from moderate deficit to normal greenness. Isiolo north remained stable at severe vegetation deficit. I. South 25.86 44.07 TANA County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal 51.33 62.11 RIVER vegetation greenness. Bura improved from normal 41.13 52.73 vegetation greenness to above normal greenness. Galole 56.21 65.54 Garsen 56.93 67.92 KAJIADO County The County and its sub-county of Kajiado south remained 35.54 41.55 stable at normal vegetation greenness. Kajiado west and 26.68 34.4 central remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. K. Central Kajiado East remained stable at above normal greenness 51.84 56.28 K. East while north improved from normal to above normal greenness during the month of February. 44.74 51.11 K. North 44.83 47.37 K. South 25.78 34.3 K. West LAIKIPIA County The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was 25.04 23.47 a stable trend. Laikipia East remained stable at normal 48.55 46.95 L. East vegetation greenness. Laikipia North and West deteriorated L. North 21.05 19.63 from moderate to severe vegetation deficit during the month of February. 21.16 19.33 L. West THARAKA County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal 55.95 67.14 NITHI vegetation greenness during the month under review which 66.75 73.54 was an improvement compared to the previous month of Chulga January. 75.63 75.53 Maara 45.59 62.04 Tharaka WEST County The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate 31.63 28.53 POKOT vegetation deficit during the month under review which was 24.93 27.79 stable from the previous month. Pokot South and Kacheliba Kapenguria deteriorated from above normal and normal Kapenguri 37.89 31.25 vegetation greenness to normal greenness and moderate vegetation deficit respectively. Sigor deteriorated from 53.54 42.6 moderate to severe vegetation deficit. 25.58 19.26 Sigor EMBU County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal 70.08 74.51 79.3 75.01 a stable and improving trend. Manyatta 67.44 72.93 66.72 74.93 Runyenjes 78.22 76.01 30th Jan 28th Feb month 2022 2022 ) 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit County The county and all of its sub-counties recorded above 54.79 68.65 normal vegetation greenness during the month of February 47.3 62.96 which was an improvement from the previous month. 56.65 73.64 Kitui East 46.75 63.9 KITUI 48.95 69.87 52.98 73.62 42.64 59.13 Kitui Rural 60.12 68.35 53.83 67.64 Kitui West County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal 56.52 69.32 60.49 76.81 was an improvement with improving VCI values. Kaiti 55.24 68.02 58.73 68.87 MAKUENI 56.86 72.91 Kilome 54.56 66.53 Makueni Mbooni 55.92 71.58 MERU County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal 57.06 61.75 vegetation greenness during the month of February which 60.13 57.76 was stable and improvement for most sub-counties. Buuri 76.93 71.79 51.27 63.98 42.04 51.31 49.91 72.73 66.12 63.61 74.16 70.25 53.05 54.7 63.32 66.54 County 52.64 59.2 The county and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness with most having improved 51.41 59.27 VCI values during the month of February. Kieni 50.62 59.03 Mathira Mukurwei 62.69 58.82 NYERI ni 55.37 60.87 54.8 58.29 Othaya 50.37 57.81 County The vegetation condition in the county and two of its sub- 32.84 47.05 counties was at normal vegetation greenness during the 33.51 46.86 month under review.This was an improvement from Ganze moderate vegetation deficit. Magarini improved from 27.37 33.02 Kaloleni normal to above normal greenness while Rabai improved from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. Kaloleni, Kilifi 35.6 52.51 Magarini North and South remained stable at moderate vegetation KILIFI 27.5 42.59 deficit during the month under review. Malindi 25.24 33.86 18.44 21.86 Rabai 20.01 24.78 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate 22.41 29.71 County vegetation deficit during the month under review which was KWALE 24.06 30.2 Kinango an improvement. Msambweni improved from severe Lungalung vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. 19.96 26.29 19.44 30.07 Matuga Msambwe 19.44 39.68 County The County and its sub-counties recorded Above normal 42.8 65.59 vegetation greenness which was an improvement from LAMU Lamu East 45.25 63.73 normal vegetation greenness. 41.38 66.67 County The County recorded above normal vegetation greenness 42.58 51.38 which was an improvement as compared to the previous Mwatate 37.28 51.9 month of January. TAITA 36.11 41.93 TAVETA 45.46 54.18 Wundanyi 58.65 63.34 County 32.89 40.69 There was an improvement in vegetation cover as the NAROK county and three of its sub-counties improved from 23.48 32.56 moderate vegetation deficit to normal greenness. Emurua Dikirr remained stable at above normal greenness during Emurua 63.06 63.18 the month under review. Kilgoris and Narok North remained Dikirr stable at normal vegetation greenness while Narok East Kilgoris 49.79 49.48 remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. 41.3 40.51 28.09 38.85 27.18 40.31 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification