October 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance for September 2021 During the month of September 2021, West Pokot, Turkana, Baringo, western parts of Marsabit, Samburu, Narok and Laikipia County received rainfall that was near to above average for the month of September (70-200mm). The Coast strip, Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale received near to below average rainfall. Generally sunny and dry weather conditions prevailed over the rest of the country during this period including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa, Kitui and Makueni. As at 27th September, Mandera, Garissa, Machakos, Makindu and Voi meteorological stations Figure 1. September Rainfall Performance recorded no rainfall during the month. Rainfall Forecast for October 2021 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for October indicates that several ASAL counties including; Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Tana River Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale are likely to experience Below-Average rainfall. Turkana, Samburu, Meru, Laikipia, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado are likely to experience near-average rainfall with a tendency to above-average, as seen in Figure 2. The October 2021 rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed, both in time and space over most parts of the country. Figure 1. October Rainfall forecast Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in September 2020 with that in September 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of September 2020 attributed to poor performance of the previous season. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2020 and September Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) September 2020 September 2021 As at the end of September 2021, counties experiencing moderate vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu and Wajir. The seven counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in September 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the eight counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of September 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Lamu (Lamu West) recorded the lowest VCI values with the five (5) sub counties currently falling in the severe deficit band which is attributed to the ongoing worsening drought situation in greater span of ASAL. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of September 2021. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe (5) vegetation Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Lamu (Lamu deficit West) Moderate (7) (24) vegetation Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township, Lagdera, deficit Kwale, Lamu, Dadaab) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kilifi Samburu, Wajir (Magarini, Kilifi-South, Kilifi-North) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni, Kinango) Laikipia (Laikipia North, Laikipia East) Marsabit (Laisaimis) Samburu (Samburu East, Samburu North) Wajir (Wajir South, Eldas, Wajir West) Normal (9) (39) vegetation Embu, Kitui, Laikipia, Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) greenness Mandera, Marsabit, Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-North) Kitui (Mwingi Meru, Tana River, Central, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural) Lamu (Lamu East) Tharaka Nithi, Mandera (Banissa, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera Turkana North, Mandera West, Mandera South) Marsabit (Moyale, North Horr, Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe North, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania west, Igembe Central, Igembe South) Narok (Narok-East) Nyeri (Mathira, Township) Samburu (Samburu west) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Turkana(Turkana East, Turkana North, Turkana South) Wajir (Wajir East, Wajir North, Tarbaj) Vegetation (7) (45) greenness Baringo, Kajiado, Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine Mogotio, Above normal Makueni, Narok, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Embu (Manyatta, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-West, Kajiado East, Kajiado West Pokot South) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia West) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kibwezi East, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni) Meru (North Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok- North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana West) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor conditions except in West Pokot that reported fair to good pasture condition as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month as result of poor performance of the previous long rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse across ASAL counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, September 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Embu Baringo West Pokot Embu Baringo West Pokot Garissa Kajiado Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Narok Isiolo Laikipia Kilifi Taita Taveta Kilifi Narok Kitui Kitui Taita Taveta Kwale Kwale Tana River Laikipia Lamu Tharaka Nithi Lamu Makueni Makueni Mandera Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Meru Meru Nyeri Tana River Wajir Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3.The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 long rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse coupled with late onset of the current short rains season of 2021. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, September 2021 Cattle Goats Kwale Baringo Narok Kwale Baringo Narok Mandera Embu Taita Taveta Mandera Embu Taita Taveta Marsabit Garissa West Pokot Marsabit Garissa West Pokot Nyeri Isiolo Nyeri Isiolo Samburu Kajiado Tana River Kajiado Tana River Kilifi Turkana Kilifi Wajir Kitui Wajir Kitui Laikipia Laikipia Lamu Lamu Makueni Makueni Meru Meru Tharaka Nithi Samburu Turkana Tharaka Nithi Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening and stable trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season and persistent dry period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, September 2021 Milk Laikipia Embu Baringo Baringo Garissa Embu Production Makueni Kitui Garissa Laikipia Kajiado Isiolo Samburu Narok Isiolo Makueni Kilifi Lamu Tharaka Kajiado Turkana Kitui Mandera Nithi Kilifi West Kwale Marsabit West Pokot Kwale Pokot Nyeri Meru Lamu Samburu Narok Mandera Taita Tana River Marsabit Taveta Tharaka Meru Wajir Nithi Nyeri Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is still fair as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, over 50 percent of counties reported cattle above LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, September 2021 Cattle Baringo Lamu Embu Kitui Baringo Isiolo Prices Isiolo Taita- Garissa Embu Kajiado Kajiado Taveta Laikipia Garissa Laikipia Kilifi Mandera Kilifi Makueni Kitui Marsabit Lamu Narok Makueni Nyeri Mandera Samburu Meru Samburu Marsabit Tana-River Narok Turkana Meru Turkana Tana-River Nyeri Tharaka- Taita-Taveta Nithi Tharaka-Nithi Wajir Wajir West- West-Pokot Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of September, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Turkana, Lamu, Marsabit and Nyeri counties.The goat prices trend are mostly stable but on worsening trend as compared to the previous month of August. Improvement is noted in West Pokot county due to the light showers received during the month of september. Table 6.0: Goat prices, September 2021 Goat Embu Baringo Lamu West Baringo Isiolo Prices Garissa Isiolo Marsabit Pokot Embu Kajiado Kajiado Makueni Nyeri Garissa Kwale Kilifi Mandera Turkana Kilifi Lamu Kitui Meru Kitui Makueni Kwale Laikipia Marsabit Laikipia Samburu Meru Mandera Narok West Narok Nyeri Taita Pokot Samburu Tharaka Taveta Taita Nithi Tana River Taveta Turkana Tharaka Tana River Wajir Livestock Mortality During the reporting period,all ASAL counties did not report livestock mortality except Kilifi that indicated suspected cases of livestock mortality as result of drought and thus need for close monitoring. March to May (MAM) long rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas which resulted to poor crop production in counties like Kitui, Makueni, Nyeri, Kilifi and Kwale however land preparation was ongoing in Taita Taveta County. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in September as compared to the previous month of August as demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to poor crop production that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, September 2021 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Isiolo Baringo Tana River Lamu Baringo Embu Prices Mandera Kajiado Kilifi West Garissa Meru Nyeri Kitui Pokot Isiolo Tharaka Wajir Lamu Kajiado Nithi Laikipia Makueni Kilifi West Pokot Marsabit Meru Kitui Garissa Narok Kwale Taita Taveta Makueni Tharaka Mandera Nithi Marsabit West Pokot Nyeri Turkana Samburu Kwale Taita Taveta Embu Tana River WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 19 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is major increase in distance to household water source. The increase in average distances to water points for households is due to the depletion of the water availability due to the minimal rains and continued dryness. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor performance of MAM season is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, September 2021. Distance Baringo Makueni Isiolo Laikipia Baringo Embu from Embu Tharaka Kilifi Garissa households Garissa Nithi Lamu Isiolo to main Kajiado West Makueni Kajiado water Kilifi Pokot Marsabit Kitui sources Kitui West Pokot Kwale Kwale Mandera Laikipia Meru Lamu Narok Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Samburu Meru Taita Narok Taveta Nyeri Tana River Samburu Tharaka Taita Taveta Nithi Tana River Turkana Turkana Wajir Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties. 70 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties pointing to worsening trend as shown in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, September 2021 Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance Baringo Kajiado Baringo Embu from Embu Kilifi Kilifi Garissa livestock Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Isiolo grazing area Kwale Wajir Makueni Kajiado to main Laikipia West Meru Kitui water Lamu Pokot Tana Kwale sources Makueni Garissa River Lamu Mandera Tana Turkana Mandera Marsabit river West Marsabit Meru Pokot Narok Narok Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Tharaka Nithi Nithi Wajir Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties except West Pokot ToT values are below and at the long-term average (LTA).The TOT maintains a stable and on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The worsening trend is as result of decreasing goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable and on increasing trend among ASALs. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, September 2021 Indica Current status Trend tor Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Terms West Pokot Baringo Embu West Pokot Baringo Embu of Garissa Isiolo Garissa Isiolo trade Kitui Kajiado Kajiado Makueni (ToT) Kwale Kilifi Kilifi Mandera Laikipia Makueni Kitui Marsabit Lamu Mander Kwale Tharaka Meru aMarsab Laikipia Nithi Narok it Lamu Turkana Samburu Nyeri Meru Taita Taveta Turkana Narok Tana-River Tharaka- Nyeri Wajir Nithi Samburu Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. In comparison to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has greatly worsened in most counties. Kilifi, Lamu, Mandera, Nyeri, Tana River, Marsabit and Makueni have MUAC above long term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the seven counties was attributed to the continued reduction in milk consumption due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services as result of covid pandemic.70 percent of the ASAL counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), September2021 Baringo Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Embu Narok Kilifi Kitui West Pokot Lamu Garissa MUAC Mandera Lamu Tharaka- Laikipia Narok Isiolo Nyeri Meru Nithi Turkana Kajiado Samburu Taita Taveta West Kitui Tana River Wajir Pokot Makueni Marsabit Embu Mandera Garissa Kwale Meru Makueni Laikipia Nyeri Turkana. Samburu Isiolo Taita- Taveta Tharaka- Kwale Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of September 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, twelve (12) counties; Meru-North, Tharaka- Nithi, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere), Kilifi, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni, Nyeri (Kieni), Narok and Samburu are in the alert drought phase; Three (3) counties including; Baringo, West-Pokot and Taita-Taveta are in Normal drought phase whereas Turkana, Garissa, Lamu, Isiolo, Marsabit, Mandera, Tana-River and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported to the improving trend, six (6) counties recorded stable trend while the remaining Seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of poor performance of 2021 long rains season. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, September 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Taita-Taveta West-Pokot Alert Tharaka-Nithi Embu (Mbeere) Kwale Kilifi Kajiado Laikipia Meru (North) Nyeri (Kieni) Narok Samburu Alarm Turkana Garissa Isiolo Mandera Tana-River Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th September 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS August r2021 50 Vegetation greenness BARINGO County The entire county and its sub counties recorded above 58.42 66.42 normal vegetation greenness in the month of September 60.94 73.72 with Eldama improving from normal greenness to above Eldama 42.28 62.20 normal greenness. Mogotio 56.2 67.77 65.12 71.80 61.2 63.95 Tiaty 58.54 64.76 MANDERA County The county and its sub counties are in Normal vegetation 39.3 46.67 Banissa greenness in the month of September which is a stable 40.8 43.65 trend except Mandera South which improved from M East 39.49 43.56 moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation Lafey 41.53 46.29 greenness. M North 44.43 49.12 M South 34.22 48.24 M West 36.45 45.55 TURKANA County There is stability in VCI for the county as five of its sub 53.23 48.51 counties recorded Above Normal and normal vegetation T Central 78.18 72.33 greenness in the month of September. The county and T. East 43.08 38.62 Turkana South deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. T. Loima 61.9 52.88 T. North 43.38 41.79 T. South 57.39 46.86 T. West 56.15 53.43 MARSABIT County The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable at 38.82 36.38 normal vegetation greenness except for Laisamis which Laisaimis 34.31 32.29 remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while North Moyale 34.34 36.59 Horr improved from moderate deficit to normal greenness. N. Horr 41.97 37.98 48.44 48.17 WAJIR County The situation remained stable in the county and Eldas at 23.78 33.02 moderate vegetation deficit. Wajir East and North W East 23.68 37.07 improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal W. Eldas 28.52 33.6 vegetation greenness during the month under review while W. North Wajir south and West improved from severe to moderate 34.27 46.72 vegetation deficit. W. South 16.92 25.34 W. Tarbaj 30.35 43.6 W West 19.36 23.68 SAMBURU County Stability in vegetation condition was noted in the county 34.59 30.93 and two of its sub-counties. Samburu North worsened from S East 26.54 25.44 normal greenness to Moderate vegetation deficit band. S. North 41.21 33.36 S. West 44.63 45.04 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS 30th September month) August 2021 50 Vegetation greenness GARISSA County The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate 21.16 28.73 Balambala vegetation deficit band with Daadab and Lagdera sub- 21.17 28.38 county improving from severe vegetation deficit to Daadab 15.29 26.73 moderate vegetation deficit band. 21.15 30.93 Ijara 29.44 29.12 Lagdera 17.28 25.15 Dujis 20.41 29.79 ISIOLO County There was stability in the entire countys vegetation 23.09 27.95 condition at moderate vegetation deficit in comparison to I. North 23.94 28.29 the previous month of August. I. South 21.79 27.44 TANA County The county and its sub counties noted an improving trend 29.23 38.4 RIVER from Moderate vegetation condition to normal vegetation 28.36 36.12 greenness in the month of September. Galole 25.66 36.96 Garsen 32.21 41.24 KAJIADO County Improving trend noted across the county and four of its sub 45.68 55.02 counties with a stable trend noted for Kajiado West. 32.92 42.55 K. Central 41.26 53.79 K. East 33.6 42.6 K. North 48.55 56.98 K. South 52.74 61.28 K. West LAIKIPIA County The sub-counties remained stable in the VCI trend in 37.62 40 comparison to the previous months. However, a decline 36.94 34.7 L. East was noted in Laikipia East whose value shifted from Normal 30.25 31.25 L. North vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. 51.75 58.94 L. West THARAKA County The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month 45.25 45 NITHI under review. Maara improved from normal to above 50.79 55.7 Chulga normal greenness. 46.02 52.51 Maara 42.92 38.56 WEST County The vegetation greenness was above normal for the all the 53.13 62.75 POKOT sub-counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison 50.65 58.06 Kacheliba the previous month. Kapenguri 54.5 68.61 61.87 73.31 51.31 60.09 Sigor EMBU County The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable 39.61 47.41 during the month of September with Normal vegetation 40.01 55.59 Manyatta greenness. Manyatta and Runyenjes sub-counties improved from normal to above normal vegetation 44.86 48.87 35.46 41.71 Runyenjes 42.78 56.17 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT COUNTY Sub VCI-3 VCI-3 Colou VCI Drought Category County month month as r values 30th Septembe month August r 2021 ) 2021 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit County The county remained stable at normal vegetation 41.68 48.05 greenness. Kitui central remained stable at Above normal 55.31 62.82 vegetation greenness while Mwingi North remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui East, South and West 45.7 53.31 Kitui East improved from normal to above normal greenness while Mwingi central, west and Kitui rural improved from KITUI 33.9 38.74 Moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation 27.38 28.9 32.64 41.12 27.82 35.83 Kitui Rural 48.56 56.11 41.97 51.15 Kitui West County The county and all its sub counties recorded above normal 50.46 60.5 vegetation greenness conditions; improved trend 46.63 72.81 Kaiti compared to August for Kaiti, Kibwezi East and Makueni. 48.01 57.26 MAKUENI 51.32 58.77 56.77 67.07 Kilome 46.16 53.64 57.5 72.01 Mbooni County The vegetation greenness is normal across the county and 44.27 46.51 eight others of its Sub-counties except for North Imenti 44.15 47.66 Buuri which recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Igembe Central and South deteriorated from above normal 41.85 46.95 to normal vegetation greenness. 51.11 48.94 38.06 40.31 MERU North 53.55 47.91 52.32 55.16 36.9 47.38 39.66 44.07 47.26 48.02 County The county, Nyeri town and Othaya sub-counties improved 47.7 52.37 from normal to above normal vegetation greenness when 52.8 52.33 Kieni compared with the previous month of August, Kieni, 42.09 49.7 Mathira, and Tetu remained stable in their VCI conditions. Mathira Mukurwei NYERI 52.9 63.03 37.05 51.56 37.32 52.62 Othaya 45.06 49.62 County The vegetation condition noted across the county was 21.19 23.08 stable and most of its sub counties recording Moderate and 17.24 18.56 Ganze severe vegetation deficit. Kilifi North deteriorated from 15.23 18.63 normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. Kaloleni 21.53 25.68 Magarini KILIFI 19.41 13.41 Malindi 39.54 26.65 14.39 18.28 Rabai 26.18 29.46 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate 21.04 23.68 KWALE vegetation deficit, with Kinango improving from severe 16.93 21.24 Kinango vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit. Lungalung 28.8 25.84 23.56 27.71 Matuga Msambwe 26.21 32.09 County The County remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit 32.41 28.8 with a decreasing trend in values. Lamu East deteriorated 51.31 47.13 Lamu East LAMU from above normal to normal vegetation greenness while Lamu Lamu West deteriorated from moderate deficit to severe 21.47 18.2 West vegetation deficit in comparison to previous month. VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT GREENNESS August r 2021 50 Vegetation greenness 10 Extreme vegetation deficit County The County and its sub-counties improved from Normal to 43.47 56.6 above normal vegetation greenness while Wundanyi 42.58 56.5 Mwatate TAITA remained stable at above normal greenness with a high VCI TAVETA Taveta 41.87 59.48 value. 43 54.19 Wundanyi 59.94 71.06 53.99 54.6 49.59 47.91 Emurua 64.54 68.62 Dikirr There was a stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, in the County and five of its sub- counties. The VCI 51.75 57.32 Kilgoris value for Narok East sub-county also remained stable at NAROK Narok- 54.84 54.71 normal greenness with a decreasing trend. 57.44 56.6 52.66 53.35 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification