April 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Onset of the long rains season was late as most ASAL counties did not receive rainfall from the second and third week of March when the March- April-May (MAM) season normally begins. During the month of March, depressed rainfall was experienced over most parts of the ASAL region with large areas in counties such as Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Baringo, Kajiado, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Tana River Kilifi, Taita Taveta, Kwale and Lamu receiving less than 50 percent of average amounts in March as shown in Figure 1. The distribution of rainfall in time and space was generally poor across the ASAL counties. Figure 1: Rainfall Performance; Percent of March LTA Figure 2 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2020 with that in March 2021. When compared to similar period last year and the long term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of March 2020. Figure 2: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2020 and March 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) March 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) March 2021 As at the end of March 2021 counties with the highest vegetation deficit were Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River and Samburu. The seven counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in March 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at 29th March 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Wajir West and Eldas in Wajir County recorded the lowest VCI values with the two sub counties currently falling in the severe deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in March 2021. Generally, the negative VCI trends observed in many ASAL areas point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of March. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Severe vegetation deficit Wajir West Eldas (Wajir) Moderate vegetation deficit Samburu Wajir (32) Mandera Garissa Marsabit Isiolo Normal vegetation greenness Laikipia (30) Kilifi Vegetation greenness above West Pokot Nyeri (49) normal Taita Taveta Meru Turkana Kwale Baringo Embu Kajiado Kitui Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently poorer compared to last month due to decrease in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality coupled with increase in distances walked by livestock in search of pasture and water. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair and poor conditions as shown in Table 1. The reduction in pasture and browse condition was attributed to the little amount of rainfall received in the 2020 October to December short rain season which did not support satisfactory growth of pasture and browse. The delayed onset of this years March-April-May long rains is also another factor for the poor pasture and browse condition. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, March 2021 Baringo Kitui Kajiado Baringo Embu Kajiado Garissa Kwale Meru Garissa Kilifi Marsabit Isiolo Lamu Taita Taveta Isiolo Kitui Narok Kilifi Makueni Mandera Kwale Taita Taveta Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Laikipia Mandera Narok Turkana Lamu Nyeri Samburu Makueni Tana River Tharaka Nithi Meru Turkana Samburu Wajir Tana River West-Pokot Tharaka Nithi West-Pokot Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition has slightly declined compared to last month due to the increase in trekking distances in search of pasture and water coupled with reduction in pasture and browse quantity and quality. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair and poor as shown in Table 2. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, March 2021 Garissa Baringo Kajiado Turkana Baringo Embu Mandera Embu Meru Wajir Garissa Kajiado Nyeri Isiolo Taita Taveta West Pokot Isiolo Taita Taveta Samburu Kilifi Kilifi Tana River Kitui Kitui Turkana Kwale Kwale Wajir Laikipia Laikipia West Pokot Lamu Lamu Makueni Makueni Marsabit Mandera Narok Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Meru Nyeri Milk production In comparison to the long term average; current milk production in seven counties is above LTA while in twelve counties which includes: Turkana, Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Baringo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Meru, Nyeri and Tharaka Nithi the current amount is below LTA. The below normal milk production is attributed to water scarcity and inadequate forage. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in Table 3. Table 3.0: Milk production, March 2021 Milk Embu Isiolo Baringo Kajiado Garissa Baringo Production Garissa Kitui Kajiado Kitui Kwale Embu Lamu Taita Taveta Kilifi Lamu Makueni Isiolo Makueni Tana River Kwale Meru Kilifi Narok Laikipia Narok Laikipia Samburu Mandera Nyeri Mandera West Pokot Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Meru Samburu Turkana Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir Tharaka Nithi Tana River West Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are either stable or worsening owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is on a downward trend as illustrated in Table 4. However, in spite of the recorded stability in cattle price during the period under review, the prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of March in about 70 percent of the ASAL counties. For instance, in Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado and Narok the current prices are above LTA by 66, 62 and 42 percent respectively. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, March 2021 Cattle Baringo Taita Taveta Embu Makueni Baringo Embu Prices Garissa Marsabit Mandera Meru Garissa Lamu Isiolo Kwale Samburu Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Mandera Kajiado Turkana Kajiado Nyeri Kilifi Kilifi Tana River Kitui Kitui West Pokot Laikipia Laikipia Lamu Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Tana River Kwale Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of November goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in counties such as Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana, West Pokot, Kwale and Nyeri where they were below the three-year average price which was attributed to the deterioration in body condition of the goats owing to poor pasture and browse. Table 5.0: Goat prices, March 2021 Goat Baringo, Embu, Meru Isiolo Kwale Kwale Isiolo, Kajiado, Embu Turkana Prices Narok, Garissa, Kitui Lamu Mandera Wajir, Narok, Meru, West Baringo Laikipia, Makueni Samburu Marsabit Pokot, Kilifi Samburu, Lamu Kajiado, Kilifi Wajir Nyeri Garissa Laikipia Makueni, Tharaka Nithi Turkana Nyeri Mandera, Kitui Taita Taveta W est Pokot Tharaka Nithi, Taita T ana River Taveta, Tana River Land preparation and planting for the March to May (MAM) long rains season are on-going across the marginal agricultural areas. The late onset of the MAM rainfall season is likely to impact negatively on agricultural activities in most semi-arid counties. Consequently, farmers have been advised to plant fast-maturing crops and drought tolerant crops in areas expected to receive below- average rainfall. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in March. As demonstrated in Table 6, the current maize prices are largely favourable with 15 counties recording prices that are below or close LTA. However, Tana River, Isiolo, West Pokot and Wajir reported a worsening trend. For instance in Tana River County the average price for a kilogram of maize increased by 7 percent from Kshs 43 in February to Kshs 46 in March which was attributed to decrease in maize supply in markets due to below average seasonal harvests. Similarly, an uptrend in maize prices was reported in West Pokot as a result of diminishing maize stocks at household level and a decrease in maize supply in markets such as Chepareria, Sigor and Makutano. Table 6.0: Maize prices, March 2021 Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Garissa Baringo Embu Embu Baringo West Pokot Prices Kwale Isiolo Kajiado Kajiado Garissa Tana River Makueni Kitui Kilifi Kwale Kilifi Isiolo Mandera Narok Laikipia Meru Kitui Wajir Marsabit Nyeri Lamu Nyeri Laikipia Taita Taveta Samburu Meru Lamu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Tana River Makueni Wajir West Pokot Mandera Access to water for households Average distances to water for households increased in March in more counties than they were reducing. For instance, household distances reduced in only five counties, remained the same as the previous month in 8 counties and increased in 10 counties. At the same time, return distances to water for households are above the long term average in 14 ASAL counties. In Turkana County for example, average distances to water sources by households increased significantly by 43 percent from 8.3 km in February to 11.9 km in March. Likewise, in Samburu, access to water for domestic use increased by 30 percent compared with last month as households had to walk an average of 9.2 km to water points in March compared with 7.1 km in February. The increase in the average distances to water points for households was occasioned by the drying up of surface water sources due to the poor performance of the October to December short rains of 2020 and the delayed onset of the MAM season. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 7. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, March 2021 Distance from Embu Laikipia Baringo Kajiado Baringo Embu households to Garissa Isiolo Lamu Garissa Isiolo main water Kilifi Kajiado Marsabit Kitui Kilifi sources Kwale Kitui Narok Kwale Meru Makueni Lamu Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Nyeri Mandera Narok Makueni Samburu Marsabit Tana River Mandera Tana River Meru Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Turkana Nyeri Wajir Samburu West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 8. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas increased in all counties except in Kajiado, Narok and Marsabit. In addition, access to water for livestock was more challenging in March compared with normal times in most ASAL counties as the average trekking distances from the main water sources to grazing areas for livestock recorded in March 2021 was above the 2016 - 2020 long-term average (LTA) in 14 counties. The increase in trekking distances was attributed to diminishing pastures and drying up of water sources. Table 8.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, March 2021 Distance from Baringo West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Embu Baringo livestock Embu Laikipia Taita Taveta Marsabit Laikipia Garissa grazing areas Garissa Narok Marsabit Narok Lamu Isiolo to main water Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Kilifi Kwale Kilifi Meru Kitui sources Lamu Kitui Tana River Kwale Makueni Tharaka Nithi Mandera Mandera Wajir Nyeri Nyeri Taita Taveta Samburu Turkana Tana River West Pokot Terms of trade Table 9 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all but five counties ToT values are above the long term average (LTA). For instance, in Laikipia, Tana River, West Pokot, Wajir, Narok and Isiolo the current ToT are higher than the 2016 - 2020 average for March by 46, 44, 31, 26, 22 and 17 percent respectively. The relatively favourable situation for livestock keepers in these ASAL counties was attributed to high goat prices while maize prices had remained fairly stable. On the other hand, terms of trade were unfavourable in Kwale, Turkana, Nyeri, Mandera and Marsabit counties where the current ToT were lower than the long term average for March by 35, 14, 12, 8 and 6 respectively. The poor terms of trade were due to decrease in the goat prices as a result of a downward shift in the body condition of goats, increase in volumes of livestock offered for sale and also a general increase in maize prices. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, March 2021 Terms of Baringo Kitui Kwale Embu Garissa Baringo trade Embu Samburu Mandera Kajiado Kilifi Isiolo (ToT) Garissa Taita Taveta Marsabit Makueni Kitui Laikipia Isiolo Nyeri Meru Kwale Lamu Kajiado Turkana Nyeri Mandera Tana River Kilifi Taita Taveta Marsabit Turkana Laikipia Narok West Pokot Lamu Samburu Makueni Tharaka Nithi Meru Wajir Health and nutrition Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. The situation in most counties is stable and worsening with 21 out of 23 counties currently on either a worsening (5) or stable (16) trend. In the month of March, counties with malnutrition rates above LTA include: Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Tana River, Baringo, Lamu, and Meru. The observed negative trend in malnutrition was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production, livestock migration, and reduced household purchasing power due to the unfavourable ToT which impacted on food access resulting to inadequate dietary intake. In Marsabit, Turkana, Mandera, Samburu and Tana River increase in malnutrition cases was also associated with the reduction in the number of integrated health outreaches which has impacted negatively on the delivery of health and nutrition services. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2021 Isiolo Embu Garissa Kitui Taita Taveta, Lamu Tana River Baringo Kwale Kitui Tharaka Nithi Kwale, Meru, Nyeri West Pokot MUAC Lamu Makueni Kajiado Garissa, Isiolo Marsabit Mandera Nyeri Narok Makueni, Mandera Turkana Marsabit Samburu Turkana Narok, Samburu Wajir Meru Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Laikipia, Kajiado Tana River Wajir Taita Taveta Baringo, Embu West Pokot Kilifi Laikipia 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 11 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of March 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, three (3) counties; Mandera, Marsabit and Turkana are in the alarm drought phase, while seven (7) counties namely Garissa, Isiolo, Wajir, Lamu, Tana River, Kilifi, and Samburu are in alert drought stage. During the month under review, sixteen (16) counties reported a worsening trend with seven (7) counties recording a stable trend. The prevailing drought situation is mainly attributed to the delayed onset of the March to May long rains. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, March 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Embu (Mbeere), Kajiado, Laikipia, Kitui, Nyeri (Kieni), West Pokot Narok, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Baringo, Makueni, Kwale (Tharaka) Meru (Meru North) Alert Garissa, Isiolo, Wajir, Lamu Tana River, Kilifi, Samburu Alarm Marsabit Mandera 3 Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Annex 1.0 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th March 2020 BARINGO County 51.8 42 The entire county and its sub counties recorded normal vegetation Central 60.27 45.08 greenness as compared to previous month when they recorded Eldama 56.38 44.04 above normal vegetation greenness. This is attributed to some light Mogotio 47.5 35.66 showers from the MAM rainfall season onset North 52.03 39.58 South 44.82 39.51 Tiaty 44.72 53.32 MANDERA County 23.09 23.87 The county and its sub counties are in moderate deficit in the Banissa 24.44 21.08 month of March. The situation experienced is due to late onset of M East 18.2 20.34 the MAM seasonal rainfall. Notably, Mandera East improved from Lafey 20.25 21.13 severe to moderate vegetation deficit. M North 25.21 23.89 M South 24.79 28.86 M West 22 23.61 TURKANA County 50.86 52.8 The county is in stability in VCI for the county and all its sub T Central 62.38 74.84 counties having recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the T. East 42.15 40.69 month of March. Turkana North and East recorded normal T. Loima 62.81 65.62 vegetation greenness. T. North 40.08 40.66 T. South 53.62 55.47 T. West 57.89 59.45 MARSABI County 22.8 31.72 The county and three of its sub counties remained at moderate T Laisaimis 22.81 32.26 vegetation deficit band. Saku sub county was stable at normal Moyale 21.78 25.38 vegetation greenness. This is due to small warm humid micro- N. Horr 25.43 32.39 climate within Saku hills. Saku 44.92 43.32 WAJIR County 22.37 24.86 The county remained in Moderate vegetation deficit with Wajir W East 25.89 26.1 Eldas and Wajir West recording a severe vegetation deficit. The W. Eldas 9.71 16.47 attributing factor is late onset of MAM long rains season. W. North 25.09 31.18 W. South 28.07 26.85 W. Tarbaj 22.41 26.17 W West 10.57 15.58 SAMBURU County 33.77 36.34 The county improved to Normal vegetation greenness from S East 26.49 27.87 Moderate vegetation greenness deficit band however Samburu S. North 39.2 44.53 East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S. West 44.82 42.58 ADMINISTRATIVE DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GARISSA County 31.39 28.27 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation Balambala 26.47 23.19 deficit band with Ijara sub county maintaining Normal Daadab 28.59 24.8 vegetation greenness band. Fafi 33.84 29.56 Ijara 37.86 36.7 Lagdera 24.8 22.52 Dujis 20.8 21.77 ISIOLO County 22.54 23.45 Stability in the vegetation greenness condition with entire county I. North 18.42 23.25 and its sub-counties falling in the moderate vegetation deficit. I. South Isiolo North improved to Moderate vegetation deficit from the 28.83 23.76 previous severe vegetation deficit band. TANA County 34.3 33.28 The county and its sub counties remained at moderate vegetation RIVER Bura 26.5 25.41 condition. Garsen remained at Normal vegetation greenness. Galole 26.5 33.19 Garsen 41.15 40.01 KAJIADO County 52.28 68.25 Stability noted across the county with all sub counties remaining K. Central 53.26 69.8 at above normal vegetation greenness conditions. Kajiado county K. East 55.51 68.6 according to Kenya Met rainfall onset predictions received its K. North 62.6 68.4 onset rains on time, 3rd dekad of March K. South 55 64.47 K. West 47.88 70.29 LAIKIPIA County 40.03 38.8 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness with L. East 30.78 34.76 Laikipia East maintaining moderate vegetation deficit as L. North 41.02 39.39 compared to the previous month. L. West 42.63 39.65 THARAKA County 56.18 50.01 The county is in above normal vegetation greenness in the month NITHI Chulga 70.67 68.33 under review. The situation is stable when compared to the Maara 72.88 72.56 previous month of February. Tharaka remained at normal Tharaka 45.39 35.91 vegetation greenness. WEST County 53.12 42.85 The vegetation greenness deteriorated for both the county and its POKOT Kacheliba 48.16 38.24 sub counties recording normal condition compared to the previous Kapenguri above normal. Kapenguria has remained at above normal 58.76 51.68 a vegetation greenness. Pokot 59.02 46.25 Sigor 53.92 41.78 EMBU County 71.32 68.82 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month Manyatta 79.68 81.9 of March across all the sub-counties with vegetation greenness Mbeere above normal in all parts of the county. 63.82 59.32 Mbeere 70.77 66.41 Runyenjes 80.93 84.68 ADMINISTRATIVE Feb 2021 Mar 2021 50 Vegetation greenness above normal County 51.71 41.59 The county and most of its sub counties recorded normal Kitui vegetation greenness condition. Mwingi North recorded moderate 69.98 62.32 Central vegetation deficit. Kitui East 54.45 44.71 KITUI 49.3 39.76 37.76 28.1 64.7 59.16 Kitui Rural 62.19 48.08 Kitui South 52.08 40.05 Kitui West 67.85 64.71 County 75.53 70.39 The county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation Kaiti 88.8 81.45 greenness conditions. The situation is stable when the current and Kibwezi previous months are compared. 78.08 70.11 MAKUENI Kibwezi 75.02 71.43 Kilome 70.78 73.02 Makueni 66.9 61.82 Mbooni 82.6 75.49 MERU County 56.18 52.78 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county and Buuri 56.18 60.64 its Sub-counties except for Igembe central, Igembe south Tigania Central East and Igembe North which recorded normal vegetation 62.79 63.2 Imenti greenness. 52.09 43.4 44.78 38.79 50.92 42.35 59.74 60.29 74.87 76.63 45.26 46.35 61.45 57.24 County 70.33 71.21 The county and its sub counties remained stable recording above Kieni 61.51 61.56 normal vegetation greenness just like the previous month of Mathira 78.41 78.47 February. NYERI Mukurwein 81.23 84.3 Town 84.64 86.18 Othaya 83.45 86.47 Tetu 76.69 83.49 County 38.7 31.2 Deterioration in vegetation condition across the county and most Ganze 40.09 26.03 of its sub counties recording moderate vegetation deficit however Kaloleni 40.32 27.69 Kilifi North recorded normal vegetation deficit. Magarini 37.95 33.52 KILIFI Malindi 37.95 31.19 44.28 37.54 Rabai 39.26 32.7 28.65 23.04 County 59.16 51.29 Above Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county Kinango 55.81 45.9 which is a stability when the month under review is compared to KWALE Lungalung 61.71 54.78 the previous month of February. Kinango recorded normal vegetation deficit. Matuga 67.2 64.76 Msambwen 66.07 64.34 County 38.94 37.22 The county remained in normal vegetation greenness however Lamu East 37.5 34.72 Lamu East recorded moderate condition. Lamu West 39.77 38.66 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 50 Vegetation greenness above County 64.63 58.03 Stability in the vegetation condition greenness above normal in the TAITA Mwatate 62.72 63.5 county together with its all-sub-counties. TAVETA Taveta 59.61 58.36 Voi 65.97 55.12 Wundanyi 80.17 71.94 County 67.91 71.51 51.75 60.99 Emurua 87.31 82.44 Dikirr The county and its sub-counties remained stable in above normal Kilgoris 79.72 77.78 vegetation greenness band. The attributing factor could be the NAROK 64.25 59.17 timely onset of the long rains of MAM in the 3rd dekad of March. 59.72 69.43 77.06 80.2 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Nutrition Circumference) Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification