March 2021 KEY HIGHLIGHTS Onset of the October-November- Water availability is steadily worsening or remaining December (OND) 2020 occurred around stable with most of the existing open water sources mid-October and currently nearly all the such as dams, rock catchments and water pans now ASAL counties limited or no rainfall at all. absolutely dry and approximately 10 percent The delayed onset of this years long rain capacity. Access to water for households and season of MAM season and its livestock remains stable worsens since distances to performance so far suggests that most watering points has increased significantly across all ASAL areas will probably experience near counties. As a result, livestock body condition and normal rainfall. Consequently, it is milk production worsen or remains stable. anticipated that the 2021 March to May short rains are likely to impact positively Although key drought indicators in a number of on both livestock and crop production. counties have not yet returned to normal, significant improvement has been observed in most of the The condition of pasture and browse in counties with the trend improving and stable in 14 many ASAL areas has remained fair to and 9 counties respectively. Currently there are 13 poor some extent following the last short counties in normal, seven in alert, one in recovery and rains of 2020. Pasture and browse three in alarm, compared with eight in normal, seven regeneration are expected to blossom as in alert and eight in the alarm drought phase in some parts of the country are already September. experiencing onset of MAM rainy season and is projected to reach the normal ranges in terms of quantity and quality by end of May or early June. Drought phase classification, February 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Embu (Mbeere) Kajiado Kwale Kitui Makueni Laikipia Meru Narok Nyeri Taita-Taveta West-Pokot Alert Baringo Garissa Emergency 1.0. Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall The start of the October-November-December (OND) 2020 seasonal rains was timely over several ASAL areas with some counties such as Marsabit, Mandera Wajir, Kitui, Taita Taveta and Makueni where onset was slightly earlier than expected. The rainfall was characterized by heavy storms and were also fairly well distributed, both in time and space. Most ASAL counties experienced one of the wettest October on record since 1981 with the cumulative rainfall amounts received in most counties exceeding 200 percent of their October long term average (LTA). In Samburu, for example, the county received rainfall totals that were above the long-term average (LTA) by 162 percent. In the first, second and third dekad, Makueni County received 29.3 mm, 23.4 mm and 57.2 mm compared with LTA of 6.7 mm, 8.6 mm and 13.5 mm respectively. Currently, the ASAL counties have not received the 2021 long rains as based on KMD predictions, the rains are likely to begin in the 3rd week of march and 1st week of April. The condition of vegetation continues to deteriorate in almost all ASAL counties which is attributed to the limited rains received in short rain season of 2020. The situation has extended and much anticipated long rains onset has delayed. The negative trends observed in many areas point to a poor regeneration of pasture during the month of February. Moreover, in Wajir (West and East), VCI values are still indicating severe vegetation deficit since the rains received so far have not increased the vegetation greenness to the expected normal ranges for the period. Figure 1 illustrates the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2020 with that in March 2021. Detailed VCI values for February are presented in Annex 1. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2020 and March 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) March 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) March 2021 Water sources The water situation has significantly dwindled across the ASAL counties as a dry-up of the impounded water during the short rains of last year. The main water sources during the month, both for domestic and livestock use were pans and dams, shallow wells, boreholes and rivers. Households also reported using piped water and roof catchment system as water sources during the reporting period. Water levels have improved since most surface water sources were recharged to over 70 percent of their normal capacity. For instance, In Marsabit County, 100 percent of open water sources in Moyale and Saku sub-counties are recharged while only 45 percent of open water sources in North Horr and Laisamis sub-counties have been recharged. In Turkana the open water sources including pans and rock catchments are recharged to over 75 percent capacity across the three livelihood zones with the normal flow characterized by moderate volume resuming in all the seasonal rivers. Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently not better compared to last month due to decrease in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality coupled with increase in trekking distances in search of pasture and water. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair and poor conditions as shown in Table 1. The depreciation in pasture and browse condition was attributed to the little amount of rainfall received in the last short rain season and this could not sustain water requirements of pasture and browse hitherto. The delayed onset of this years long rains is also another factor for the poor pasture and browse condition. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, March 2021 Pasture Browse Baringo Kitui Kajiado Baringo Embu Kajiado Garissa Kwale Meru Garissa Kilifi Marsabit Isiolo Lamu Taita-Taveta Isiolo Kitui Narok Kilifi Makueni Mandera Kwale Taita-Taveta Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Laikipia Mandera Narok Turkana Lamu Nyeri Samburu Makueni Tana-River Tharaka-Nithi Meru Turkana Samburu Wajir Tana-River West-Pokot Tharaka-Nithi Livestock body condition As a result of decrease in forage and water availability body condition for livestock has started decreasing after early cessation of short rains of 2020 as illustrated in Table 2. Most of counties livestock body condition were in fair category. In Turkana, Wajir and West Pokot counties, the goats were in poor category in the month of March. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, March 2021 Goats Cattle Garissa Baringo Kajiado Turkana Baringo Embu Mandera Embu Meru Wajir Garissa Kajiado Nyeri Isiolo Taita-Taveta West-Pokot Isiolo Taita-Taveta Samburu Kilifi Kilifi Tana-River Kitui Kwale Turkana Kwale Wajir Laikipia West-Pokot Lamu Mandera Milk production Milk production is generally on a stable trend across counties during the month under review. However, there are decreasing trends being noted, for example, in Kilifi County, average milk production per household per day decreased by 27 percent to 2.7 litres in March from 3.7 litres in February while household milk production per day in Lamu rose by 42 percent from 2.4 litres in February to 3.4 litres in March. General decreasing trend in milk production was attributed to deteriorating livestock body condition due to significant increase in trekking distances in search of water and forage by livestock. Table 3.0: Milk production, March 2021 Milk Embu Isiolo Baringo Kajiado Garissa Baringo Production Garissa Kitui Kajiado Kitui Kwale Embu Lamu Taita Kilifi Lamu Makueni Isiolo Makueni Taveta Kwale Meru Kilifi Samburu Mandera Mandera West-Pokot Marsabit Marsabit Meru Turkana Tharaka West Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are either stable or worsening owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is on a downward trend. However, in spite of the recorded stability in cattle price during the period under review, the prevailing price is higher than the three- year average price of cattle for the month of March in about 60 percent of the ASAL counties. For instance, in Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado and Lamu the current prices are above LTA by 66, 62 and 61 respectively. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, March 2021 Indicat Current status Trend or Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Baringo Marsabit Embu Makueni Baringo Embu Prices Garissa Taita Mandera Meru Garissa Lamu Isiolo Taveta Samburu Tharaka- Isiolo Mandera Kajiado Turkana Nithi Kajiado Nyeri Kilifi Tana River Kitui West Pokot Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trend in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of March, goat prices in most ASAL areas were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri, West Pokot and Turkana counties where they were below the three-year average price due to below average forage and poor body condition owing to the poorly performed last year OND rains. Table 5.0: Goat prices, March 2021 Indicato Current status Trend r Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Goat Baringo Isiolo Kwale Kwale Embu Baringo Prices Embu Lamu Mandera Garissa Lamu Garissa Samburu Marsabit Isiolo Turkana Kajiado Wajir Nyeri Kajiado Kilifi Turkana Kilifi Kitui West-Pokot Kitui Laikipia Laikipia Makueni Makueni Meru Mandera Narok Marsabit Taita Taveta Meru Tana River Narok Tharaka-Nithi Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Agricultural activities undertaken during the month of October in the marginal agricultural counties such as Makueni, Kitui, Embu (Mbeere), Tharaka, Meru North and Nyeri (Kieni) include land preparation, planting and weeding. In most of these counties the area planted is above normal, which is mainly driven by county government support to farmers with tractors. The condition of the crops is generally good and overall the on-going rains are expected to impact crop production positively this season. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in March. Moreover, the current maize prices are largely at average with about 60 percent of the counties recording prices atclose LTA. For example, in Nyeri, Kitui, Isiolo, Narok, Samburu, Baringo and Turkana current prices are atclose LTA. Embu, Kajiado, Kwale, Meru and Nyeri counties have a worsening trend. The increase in maize prices in Lamu is attributed to diminishing stocks of maize at household level and a slight decrease in maize supply in most markets. Table 6.0: Maize prices, March 2021 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Garissa Baringo Embu Isiolo Baringo Embu Prices Kwale Isiolo Kajiado Tana River Garissa Kajiado Makueni Kitui Kilifi Wajir Kilifi Kwale Mandera Narok Laikipia West-Pokot Kitui Meru Marsabit Nyeri Lamu Laikipia Nyeri Taita Taveta Samburu Meru Lamu Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Tana River Makueni Wajir West-Pokot Mandera Access to water The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 7. Return distances to water for households have generally increased in nearly all ASAL counties. The reduction in the average distances to water points for households was occasioned by the dwindling water points around due to poorly performed short rains of 2020. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, March 2021 Distance from Embu Laikipia Baringo Kajiado Baringo Embu households to Garissa Isiolo Lamu Garissa Isiolo main water Kilifi Kajiado Marsabit Kitui Kilifi sources Kwale Kitui Narok Kwale Meru Makueni Laikipia Nyeri Lamu Tharaka Mandera Makueni Samburu Narok Nithi Marsabit Mandera Tana River Meru Taita Taveta Turkana Tharaka- Samburu West Taita Taveta Pokot The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 8. Average return distances to water for livestock increased in February following the dwindling of water points due to poor short rains of 2020. In all ASAL counties, except Tana river access to water for livestock was in a worsening trend. Only Kajiado, Narok and Marsabit counties are in improving trend Table 8.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, March 2021 Distance from Baringo Wet- Kajiado Kajiado Embu Baringo livestock Embu Pokot Kilifi Marsabit Laikipia Garissa grazing area to Garissa Laikipia Kitui Narok Lamu Isiolo main water Isiolo Narok Marsabit Makueni Kilifi sources Kwale Taita Taveta Meru Kitui Lamu Tharaka-Nithi Tana River Kwale Makueni Tharaka- Mandera Mandera Nithi Nyeri Meru Wajir Samburu Nyeri Taita Taveta Samburu Turkana Tana River West Pokot Terms of trade Each month, the drought early warning system monitors the relative price of goats and maize, showing the number of kilograms of cereal that can be exchanged for one goat. Table 9 summarizes the movements on the previous month and the trend. In almost 70 percent of the counties the terms of trade (ToT) are above the long term average for the month while in 3 counties; Turkana, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit and Nyeri the ToT are showing a below average. Garissa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Mandera, Nyeri, Samburu and Turkana counties are showing a worsening trend. The unfavourable terms of trade are attributed to the fact that the price of goats had declined while the price of maize had increased. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, March 2021 Terms of Baringo Kitui Kwale Embu Garissa Baringo trade Embu Samburu Mandera Kajiado Kilifi Isiolo (ToT) Garissa Taita Marsabit Makueni Kitui Laikipia Isiolo Taveta Nyeri Meru Kwale Lamu Kajiado Turkana Nyeri Mandera Tana River Kilifi Taita Taveta Marsabit Turkana Laikipia Narok West-Pokot Lamu Samburu Makueni Tharaka- Meru Nithi Narok Wajir Health and nutrition Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. The situation in most counties isstable and worsening with close to 90 percent of the counties currently on either an worsening or stabilizing trend. For example, the ratio of the under-fives rated as being at risk of malnutrition rise in February compared with January by 200, 85 and 62 percent in Samburu, Kitui and Makueni respectively. The stabilizing and worsening trend was attributed to decrease in milk consumption and impact of ongoing health and nutrition interventions. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2021 Mandera Embu Garissa Tharaka- Kwale Garissa Marsabit Baringo Kitui Nithi Lamu Isiolo MUAC Tana river Embu Kajiado Laikipia Tana river Kitui Turkana Kwale Narok Kajiado Wajir Makueni Isiolo Laikipia Nyeri Baringo West pokot Mandera Kilifi Lamu Tharaka-Nithi Embu Meru Marsabit Samburu Makueni Kilifi Nyeri Narok Taita-Taveta Meru Taita Taveta Samburu Wajir T urkana 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. The key drought indicators in a number of counties have not yet returned to normal, as a result, significant deterioration has been observed in most of the counties with the trend in worsening and stable in 16 and 7 counties respectively. Currently there are 13 counties in normal, seven in alert, none in recovery and two in alarm compared to 12 counties in normal, eight in alert, none in recovery and three in alarm in the previous month. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, March 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Embu Baringo Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Kwale Narok Makueni Taita Taveta Meru North Tharaka-Nithi Nyeri (Kieni) Alert Garissa Projected food security situation Based on the February 19th weather forecast by Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), episodes of MAM rainfall onset may occur in 4th week of march to 1st week of April in most of the Arid counties and 3rd to 4th week of march for semi-arid counties. The cumulative rainfall amounts are expected to be normal as the long-term average received during the same period. Overall, despite some negative impacts from flash floods, the enhanced rainfall is expected to support regeneration of both pasture and browse; and improve water availability and access which is likely to result in increased livestock productivity in the ASAL counties. Good crop performance is expected across the ASAL region which is likely to exhibit improved crop production in the marginal agricultural counties. 3 Recommendations Provision of food assistance and scale up of cash transfer targeting households currently food insecure as a result of the recent drought and those affected by floods. Awareness raising and support to households living in flood prone areas to move to safer groundsarea to avoid loss of lives and destruction of property. Promotion of rain water harvesting technologies. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Promote pasture establishment and conservation including deferred grazing management and participatory rangeland management. Provision of seeds and farm tools to households in the marginal agricultural and agro- pastoral areas affected by floods. Continue sensitization on, scouting for and monitoring of fall armyworm infestation in order to avert crop losses. Promotion of appropriate post-harvest management practices. Enhance hygiene promotion and provision of water treatment chemicals to control waterborne diseases. Intensify peace building initiatives to advocate for peaceful coexistence and sharing of resources. Annex 1.0 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th March 2020 BARINGO County 51.8 42 The entire county and its sub counties recorded normal vegetation Central 60.27 45.08 greenness as compared to previous month when they recorded Eldama 56.38 44.04 above normal vegetation greenness. This is attributed to some light Mogotio 47.5 35.66 showers from the MAM rainfall season onset North 52.03 39.58 South 44.82 39.51 Tiaty 44.72 53.32 MANDERA County 23.09 23.87 The county and its sub counties are in moderate deficit in the Banissa 24.44 21.08 month of March. The situation experienced is due to late onset of M East 18.2 20.34 the MAM seasonal rainfall. Notably, Mandera East improved from Lafey 20.25 21.13 severe to moderate vegetation deficit. M North 25.21 23.89 M South 24.79 28.86 M West 22 23.61 TURKANA County 50.86 52.8 The county is in stability in VCI for the county and all its sub T Central 62.38 74.84 counties having recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the T. East 42.15 40.69 month of March. Turkana North and East recorded normal T. Loima 62.81 65.62 vegetation greenness. T. North 40.08 40.66 T. South 53.62 55.47 T. West 57.89 59.45 MARSABI County 22.8 31.72 The county and three of its sub counties remained at moderate T Laisaimis 22.81 32.26 vegetation deficit band. Saku sub county was stable at normal Moyale 21.78 25.38 vegetation greenness. This is due to small warm humid micro- N. Horr 25.43 32.39 climate within Saku hills. Saku 44.92 43.32 WAJIR County 22.37 24.86 The county remained in Moderate vegetation deficit with Wajir W East 25.89 26.1 Eldas and Wajir West recording a severe vegetation deficit. The W. Eldas 9.71 16.47 attributing factor is late onset of MAM long rains season. W. North 25.09 31.18 W. South 28.07 26.85 W. Tarbaj 22.41 26.17 W West 10.57 15.58 SAMBURU County 33.77 36.34 The county improved to Normal vegetation greenness from S East 26.49 27.87 Moderate vegetation greenness deficit band however Samburu S. North 39.2 44.53 East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S. West 44.82 42.58 ADMINISTRATIVE DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GARISSA County 31.39 28.27 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation Balambala 26.47 23.19 deficit band with Ijara sub county maintaining Normal Daadab 28.59 24.8 vegetation greenness band. Fafi 33.84 29.56 Ijara 37.86 36.7 Lagdera 24.8 22.52 Dujis 20.8 21.77 ISIOLO County 22.54 23.45 Stability in the vegetation greenness condition with entire county I. North 18.42 23.25 and its sub-counties falling in the moderate vegetation deficit. I. South Isiolo North improved to Moderate vegetation deficit from the 28.83 23.76 previous severe vegetation deficit band. TANA County 34.3 33.28 The county and its sub counties remained at moderate vegetation RIVER Bura 26.5 25.41 condition. Garsen remained at Normal vegetation greenness. Galole 26.5 33.19 Garsen 41.15 40.01 KAJIADO County 52.28 68.25 Stability noted across the county with all sub counties remaining K. Central 53.26 69.8 at above normal vegetation greenness conditions. Kajiado county K. East 55.51 68.6 according to Kenya Met rainfall onset predictions received its K. North 62.6 68.4 onset rains on time, 3rd dekad of March K. South 55 64.47 K. West 47.88 70.29 LAIKIPIA County 40.03 38.8 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness with L. East 30.78 34.76 Laikipia East maintaining moderate vegetation deficit as L. North 41.02 39.39 compared to the previous month. L. West 42.63 39.65 THARAKA County 56.18 50.01 The county is in above normal vegetation greenness in the month NITHI Chulga 70.67 68.33 under review. The situation is stable when compared to the Maara 72.88 72.56 previous month of February. Tharaka remained at normal Tharaka 45.39 35.91 vegetation greenness. WEST County 53.12 42.85 The vegetation greenness deteriorated for both the county and its POKOT Kacheliba 48.16 38.24 sub counties recording normal condition compared to the previous Kapenguri above normal. Kapenguria has remained at above normal 58.76 51.68 a vegetation greenness. Pokot 59.02 46.25 Sigor 53.92 41.78 EMBU County 71.32 68.82 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month Manyatta 79.68 81.9 of March across all the sub-counties with vegetation greenness Mbeere above normal in all parts of the county. 63.82 59.32 Mbeere 70.77 66.41 Runyenjes 80.93 84.68 ADMINISTRATIVE Feb 2021 Mar 2021 50 Vegetation greenness above normal County 51.71 41.59 The county and most of its sub counties recorded normal Kitui vegetation greenness condition. Mwingi North recorded moderate 69.98 62.32 Central vegetation deficit. Kitui East 54.45 44.71 KITUI 49.3 39.76 37.76 28.1 64.7 59.16 Kitui Rural 62.19 48.08 Kitui South 52.08 40.05 Kitui West 67.85 64.71 County 75.53 70.39 The county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation Kaiti 88.8 81.45 greenness conditions. The situation is stable when the current and Kibwezi previous months are compared. 78.08 70.11 MAKUENI Kibwezi 75.02 71.43 Kilome 70.78 73.02 Makueni 66.9 61.82 Mbooni 82.6 75.49 MERU County 56.18 52.78 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county and Buuri 56.18 60.64 its Sub-counties except for Igembe central, Igembe south Tigania Central East and Igembe North which recorded normal vegetation 62.79 63.2 Imenti greenness. 52.09 43.4 44.78 38.79 50.92 42.35 59.74 60.29 74.87 76.63 45.26 46.35 61.45 57.24 County 70.33 71.21 The county and its sub counties remained stable recording above Kieni 61.51 61.56 normal vegetation greenness just like the previous month of Mathira 78.41 78.47 February. NYERI Mukurwein 81.23 84.3 Town 84.64 86.18 Othaya 83.45 86.47 Tetu 76.69 83.49 County 38.7 31.2 Deterioration in vegetation condition across the county and most Ganze 40.09 26.03 of its sub counties recording moderate vegetation deficit however Kaloleni 40.32 27.69 Kilifi North recorded normal vegetation deficit. Magarini 37.95 33.52 KILIFI Malindi 37.95 31.19 44.28 37.54 Rabai 39.26 32.7 28.65 23.04 County 59.16 51.29 Above Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county Kinango 55.81 45.9 which is a stability when the month under review is compared to KWALE Lungalung 61.71 54.78 the previous month of February. Kinango recorded normal vegetation deficit. Matuga 67.2 64.76 Msambwen 66.07 64.34 County 38.94 37.22 The county remained in normal vegetation greenness however Lamu East 37.5 34.72 Lamu East recorded moderate condition. Lamu West 39.77 38.66 Feb 2021 Mar 2021 50 Vegetation greenness above County 64.63 58.03 Stability in the vegetation condition greenness above normal in the TAITA Mwatate 62.72 63.5 county together with its all-sub-counties. TAVETA Taveta 59.61 58.36 Voi 65.97 55.12 Wundanyi 80.17 71.94 County 67.91 71.51 51.75 60.99 Emurua 87.31 82.44 Dikirr The county and its sub-counties remained stable in above normal Kilgoris 79.72 77.78 vegetation greenness band. The attributing factor could be the NAROK 64.25 59.17 timely onset of the long rains of MAM in the 3rd dekad of March. 59.72 69.43 77.06 80.2 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification