June 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS Early onset of the March-April-May (MAM) However, the heavy rainfall experienced during the 2020 seasonal rainfall coupled with the good March to May period also provided favourable rainfall performance during the months of conditions for breeding and multiplication of desert April and May has impacted positively on locusts in some of the arid and semi-arid areas, both crop and livestock production in most particularly in Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, and Isiolo ASAL counties. counties. In all ASAL areas, livestock body condition Overall, the above-average rains recorded since March has improved significantly as a result of has enhanced the environmental indicators across the availability of pasture and water which has ASAL region and as a result all the 23 ASAL counties led to increased milk availability and are currently classified in the normal drought stage with household income from higher livestock the trend improving in two counties and remaining prices. stable in 19 counties. In most of the marginal agricultural counties, crops are in fairly good condition and in some of the areas like Embu (Mbeere), harvesting of the early planted maize, beans, pigeon peas, cow peas and green grams has started. Drought phase classification, May 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Tana River, Kajiado, Baringo, Embu (Mbeere), Laikipia, Taita Marsabit, Wajir Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Kilifi, Kwale Makueni, Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Lamu, Isiolo, Garissa 1.0. Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall During the month of May, various ASAL areas received substantial amounts of rainfall. In most ASAL counties the cumulative amount of rainfall received in May 2020 was near to above- average. For instance, in Baringo, Kilifi, Marsabit, Kitui, Tana River, Kajiado, West Pokot and Turkana the rainfall exceeded 75 percent of the long term mean for May. The above-average rains experienced since March have benefited crop development and pasture regeneration. However, the heavy rainfall has also provided favourable conditions for the further breeding and multiplication of desert locusts in some of the arid and semi-arid areas, particularly in Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, and Isiolo counties. Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in late May 2019 with that in late May 2020. The good performance of the March-April-May (MAM) 2020 seasonal rainfall is evident as it has resulted to high vegetation regeneration with all arid and semi-arid counties recording vegetation greenness values that are within normal to above normal ranges. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) May 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) May 2020 Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2019 and May 2020 Water sources The rainfall has been sufficient to recharge most of the open water sources, improving the quantity and quality of water and reducing distances and waiting time. In general, the water situation in May across all the ASAL areas was considerably better compared to the one normally witnessed during the month of May in recent years. For example, in Turkana County, by end of May more than 75 percent of the open water sources in all the three livelihood zones were at full capacity, while most pans and dams in Baringo were at 80 to 90 percent of their full capacity. In Kitui County, majority of surface water sources are past 60 percent of their capacity and are likely to retain water for 3 to 4 months. Livestock production The rains have positively impacted on the pasture and browse condition. This has reduced distances covered between water points and grazing fields which has resulted to improvement in overall livestock productivity which translates to enhanced milk and meat production. Pasture and browse condition Pasture and browse condition continued to improve in May which was attributed to the cumulative effect of the above normal rains that promoted substantial pasture and browse growth and regeneration. All counties reported the current state of pasture and browse as being good as presented in Table 2. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, May 2020 Pasture Browse Lamu Garissa Embu Lamu Tharaka Nithi Narok Kajiado Isiolo Taita Taveta Meru Laikipia Kilifi West Pokot Nyeri Makueni Kitui Tana River Wajir Marsabit Kwale Makueni Kitui Samburu Turkana Marsabit Kwale Mandera Baringo Samburu Turkana Tana River Wajir Mandera Baringo West Pokot Nyeri Garissa Embu Taita Taveta Meru Kajiado Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Narok Laikipia Kilifi Livestock body condition As illustrated in Table 3, livestock body condition remained good in all the 23 ASAL counties which is largely attributed to the increased availability of forage and water. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, May 2020 Goats Cattle Garissa Embu Tana River Wajir Kajiado Isiolo West Pokot Nyeri Laikipia Kilifi Taita Taveta Meru Garissa Embu Kajiado Isiolo Laikipia Kilifi Tana River Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Taita Taveta Meru Milk production Milk production situation in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in Table 4. In comparison to the long term mean, average milk production per household in May 2020 in 16 counties was above or close to LTA which was attributed to increased availability of water, pasture and browse. However, in seven counties: Marsabit, Turkana, Samburu, Kajiado, Kitui, Tana River and Kwale average milk production per household was below normal. The below average milk production was attributed to a drop in calving rates, increase in livestock disease incidences and a general reduction in livestock herd sizes. Table 4.0: Milk production, May 2020 Milk Baringo Kilifi Kitui Kajiado Embu Garissa Production Garissa Meru North Kajiado Mandera West Pokot Marsabit Isiolo Wajir Samburu Baringo Taita Taveta Laikipia Nyeri (Kieni) Lamu Tana River Makueni Lamu Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Narok Kwale Nyeri Samburu West Pokot Marsabit Tana River Tharaka Nithi Embu (Mbeere) Turkana Wajir Isiolo Taita Taveta Kitui Mandera Kwale Laikipia Meru Makueni Narok Turkana Cattle prices In all the 23 ASAL counties cattle prices are improving or have remained stable owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is on an upward trend. In addition, across the 23 ASAL counties the prevailing average price for cattle are above or close to the three-year mean price of cattle for the month of May. For instance, in Kilifi, Mandera, West Pokot, Isiolo, Wajir, Narok and Marsabit the current prices are above LTA by 52, 46, 40, 34, 31, 29 and 26 percent respectively which was associated to the improved body condition of cattle across ASAL areas. Table 5 shows the trends in cattle prices in May 2020. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, May 2020 Cattle Tana River Isiolo Kitui Lamu Turkana Nyeri Prices Taita Taveta Nyeri Lamu Narok Baringo Garissa West Pokot Wajir Turkana Laikipia Kitui Marsabit Meru Tharaka Kwale Samburu Kilifi Makueni Embu Baringo Garissa Marsabit Meru Laikipia Narok Samburu Kilifi Tharaka Kwale Mandera Kajiado Makueni Embu Tana River Isiolo Mandera Kajiado West Pokot Wajir Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trend in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of May, goat prices in 21 ASAL counties were above average or close to LTA which was attributed to the good body condition of goats. In West Pokot County, for example, the price of a medium-sized two- year old buck increased to Kshs 4,237 from Kshs 4110 recorded in April which was above the LTA price of Kshs 2,877 by 47 percent. Similarly, current average prices for goats in Garissa, Samburu and Turkana were above LTA by 37, 31 and 25 percent respectively. However, goat prices in Marsabit and Makueni counties decreased and were below the 2015-19 average due to closure of markets as a result of measures placed to curb the spread of COVID-19. Table 6.0: Goat prices, May 2020 Goat Turkana Nyeri Kitui Makueni Kwale Baringo Kitui Kilifi Prices Kajiado Kilifi Lamu Marsabit Meru Garissa Isiolo Makueni Garissa Meru Mandera Narok Turkana Laikipia Marsabit Isiolo Narok Tana River Mandera Nyeri Wajir Samburu Wajir Samburu Kajiado Laikipia Baringo Tana River Lamu West Pokot Kwale West Pokot Embu Taita Taveta Embu In marginal agricultural areas, the main crops under cultivation are maize, beans, green grams, cow peas, pigeon peas, millet, and sorghum. Majority of the crops are in fair condition and were at flowering stage of growth. On the other hand, in some areas such as Embu (Mbeere), harvesting of the early planted maize, beans, pigeon peas, cow peas and green grams has started. Maize prices Table 7 displays the trends in maize prices in May 2020. In about 20 out of the 23 ASAL counties, the price of maize fell or remained stable in May. At the same time, the current maize prices are largely below average with over 80 percent of the counties recording prices below or close to the 2015 - 19 LTA. In Embu County, the decrease in maize price was attributed to harvest of various crops including maize, green grams, cowpeas and pigeon peas which had thereby led to replenishing of household stocks. In Makueni, below normal maize prices was as a result of the bumper harvest from the previous season which had continued to ensure a steady supply of the commodity in the local markets. Table 7.0: Maize prices, May 2020 Maize Garissa Marsabit Makueni Embu Tana River Samburu Garissa Kilifi Prices Mandera Samburu Turkana Kitui West Pokot Mandera Narok Tharaka Tana River Baringo Isiolo Narok Makueni Laikipia Baringo Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Nyeri Turkana Kajiado Lamu Kitui Kwale Tharaka Nithi Kwale Isiolo Nyeri Wajir Taita Taveta Meru Taita Taveta Lamu West Pokot Embu Marsabit Meru Laikipia Access to water The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Return distances to water for households have remained below normal in close to 90 percent of the ASAL counties. The reduction in the average distances to water points for households was occasioned by the increase in water availability as most open water sources were recharged by the rains received since the start of the long rains season in March. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, May 2020 Distance Taita Taveta West Pokot Wajir Baringo Embu Isiolo from Kwale Tana River Isiolo Garissa Laikipia Kilifi households Lamu Marsabit Meru Kajiado Lamu Kwale to main Samburu Kilifi Tana River Makueni Marsabit Turkana Nyeri Mandera Meru Mandera Kajiado Narok Samburu Baringo Garissa Nyeri Tharaka Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Wajir Tharaka Kitui Turkana Makueni Embu West Pokot Kitui In all counties except in Lamu, access to water for livestock was better in May compared with normal times as animals had to walk shorter distances compared with the usual distances recorded in the 2015 - 2019 long term average (LTA). The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, May 2020 Distance Lamu Kwale Taita Taveta Kitui Baringo Kajiado Isiolo from Laikipia West Pokot Wajir Embu Kitui Kilifi livestock Tana River Isiolo Garissa Laikipia Kwale grazing Marsabit Meru Mandera Lamu Makueni Samburu Kilifi Narok Turkana Marsabit area to Turkana Nyeri Samburu West Pokot Meru Mandera Kajiado Tana River Nyeri Baringo Garissa Taita Taveta Tharaka Narok Tharaka Makueni Embu Wajir Terms of trade In all ASAL counties, the current terms of trade (ToT) are above the long term average for the month implying a favourable situation for livestock producers as demonstrated in Table 10. Furthermore in 18 ASAL counties, the terms of trade were stable or improved in May 2020. An indication that households could obtain more kilogrammes of maize from the sale of a goat than they did during the previous month. The lagest improvements were in Embu (Mbeere), Meru (Meru North), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) and Garissa, where terms of trade appreciated by 44, 19, 15 and 5 percent respectively. The improvement in ToT recorded in ASAL areas during the month under review is generally a reflection of rising goat prices. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, May 2020 Terms of Taita Taveta Lamu Wajir Tharaka Nithi Baringo Isiolo trade West Pokot Meru Taita Taveta Garissa Marsabit (ToT) Tana River Embu Samburu Makueni Tana River Marsabit Kitui Kwale Laikipia Turkana Samburu Nyeri Wajir Mandera West Pokot Laikipia Kilifi Embu Kajiado Baringo Garissa Meru Narok Turkana Narok Kilifi Makueni Isiolo Kitui Mandera Kwale Nyeri Kajiado Tharaka Lamu Health and nutrition The bulletins monitor the proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition, determined by a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurement (Table 11). The nutrition status of children in most counties improved this month with 20 counties now on a stable or improving trend. This improvement was attributed to higher milk consumption in pastoral counties and improved dietary diversity due to availability of green vegetables and pulses in the marginal agricultural counties. However, in Kajiado, Samburu and Tana River malnutrition prevalence rates were above LTA. In Samburu County, for instance, the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition has maintained upward trend since March 2020. The increase in malnutrition cases was attributed low access to health services due to fear of transmission of COVID-19 and hence mothers and caregivers are not taking their children for routine services. Current rate of children at risk of malnutrition in Samburu stands at 26.2 percent which indicates that majority of children are at risk for acute malnutrition. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), May 2020 MUAC Kajiado Laikipia Kilifi Kajiado Baringo Samburu Marsabit Kwale Garissa Laikipia Tana River Baringo Narok Embu Mandera Makueni Isiolo Isiolo Marsabit Garissa Kitui Kilifi Meru Mandera Meru Kitui Narok Tharaka Lamu Lamu Nyeri Taita Taveta Nyeri Makueni Samburu Embu (Mbeere) Kwale Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. The months of January to February were one of the wettest period in the ASAL region which together with the above-average rains recorded since March has enhanced the environmental indicators and as a result all counties are currently classified in the normal drought stage with the trend improving in two counties and remaining stable in 19 counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, May 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Tana River ,Wajir, Kajiado, Baringo, Embu (Mbeere), Laikipia, Taita Marsabit, Kwale Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Kilifi, Makueni, Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Lamu, Isiolo, Garissa Recovery 2.0 Projected food security situation In most ASAL areas, pasture and browse quantity and quality is projected to remain in good condition over the next one month which is likely to support enhanced livestock productivity including increase in milk production and improved body condition of livestock. The prevailing good livestock body condition and stable maize prices are likely to maintain the current above average livestock-to-cereals terms of trade during the month of June. In addition, increased milk production is expected to result in improved nutritional status of children. However, ongoing locust invasion in Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu is projected to cause significant damage to forage and crops. Also, the disruption of market operations due to the COVID 19 pandemic is likely to negatively affect food supply and livestock prices which might lead to the deterioration of the food security situation in most ASAL counties. 3.0 Recommendations Food and Safety Net Provision of food and cash transfers to food insecure population targeting vulnerable members of the community affected by recent drought and floods including households which have been severely affected by increasing food prices, reduction in income or loss of jobs. as a result of measures put it place to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Health and Nutrition Conduct awareness campaigns on COVID-19 and support hygiene education promotion including installation of hand washing facilities in public spaces. Provision of face masks, hand sanitizers and soap to vulnerable members of the community. Agriculture Provision of certified seeds and other farm inputs. Upscale ground and aerial spraying to control desert locust infestation and spread. LivestockVeterinary Enhance disease control measures including livestock vaccination. Support pasture establishment and conservation as well as stockpiling of county strategic hay reserves. Water Promote rain water harvesting. Community sensitization on treatment of drinking water as most households are accessing water from unprotected sources. Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th May 2020 BARINGO County 85.07 81.89 Following the good rains received in March, April and May, current Central 90.68 84.87 vegetation greenness in all sub-counties is above normal. Eldama 79.69 73.66 Mogotio 80.9 75.73 North 89.25 83.66 South 85.83 80.05 Tiaty 84.68 84.94 MANDERA County 66.83 67.93 Only Mandera East sub-county is in the normal vegetation greenness class Banissa 53.54 59.59 while all other sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. M. East 46.8 48.59 Lafey 55.12 60.49 M. North 68.57 70.61 M. South 82.52 74.92 M. West 72.39 74.81 TURKANA County 117.33 101.84 As a result of the above normal rains received during the MAM rainy T. Central 119.13 109.17 season, vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. T. East 70.38 75.82 T. Loima 136.92 116.93 T. North 120.08 95.46 T. South 118.85 114.95 T. West 134.84 110.35 MARSABIT County 70.51 64.72 Vegetation greenness above normal for the period across all sub counties. Laisamis 76.21 66.68 Moyale 57.89 54.44 N. Horr 69.82 65.89 Saku 82.9 71.03 WAJIR County 58.83 52.56 The county is in the above normal vegetation greenness band. However, W. East 66.44 60.63 slight decline was noted in Wajir Eldas which currently has normal vegetation greenness. W. Eldas 49.22 42.09 W. North 72.1 65.45 W. South 53.46 49.48 W. Tarbaj 64.03 61.25 W. West 55.31 39.63 COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI values Drought Category SAMBURU County 77.19 74.58 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. S. East 70.01 69.34 S. North 83.45 78.89 S. West 84.93 81.14 GARISSA County 68.44 65.80 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 61.71 66.81 Daadab 52.48 54.76 Fafi 73.03 69.15 Ijara 85.62 75.80 Lagdera 59.29 57.21 Dujis 56.3 58.88 ISIOLO County 64.03 62.60 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. I. North 64.46 61.01 I. South 63.37 65.03 TANA County 87.85 80.23 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. RIVER Bura 68.03 66.22 Galole 96.83 83.22 Garsen 99.05 90.24 KAJIADO County 96.98 86.35 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. K. Central 91.35 79.00 K. East 94.6 83.74 K. North 88.73 81.20 K. South 94.11 85.04 K. West 103.7 92.80 LAIKIPIA County 77.27 72.70 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. L. East 82.55 78.01 L. North 79.13 72.65 L. West 71.25 70.24 THARAKA County 80.09 67.75 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. NITHI Chulga 89.35 77.31 Maara 86.05 75.10 Tharaka 74.69 61.79 WEST County 96.36 85.48 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. POKOT Kacheliba 94.58 81.69 Kapenguria 101.71 87.41 Pokot South 102.96 93.60 Sigor 91.17 85.96 EMBU County 94.92 83.27 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Manyatta 92.39 80.13 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Mbeere North 93.57 82.56 Mbeere South 97.50 85.45 Runyenjes 91.15 80.31 KITUI County 94.70 87.54 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kitui Central 98.2 87.17 Kitui East 98.27 89.93 Mwingi Central 88.63 84.17 Mwingi North 76.87 73.20 Mwingi West 100.67 93.55 Kitui Rural 103.79 93.61 Kitui South 100.27 92.24 Kitui West 101.24 89.50 MAKUENI County 99.46 89.91 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Kaiti 103.38 93.78 Kibwezi East 95.86 88.93 Kibwezi West 99.87 90.59 Kilome 105.12 89.69 Makueni 98.23 86.05 Mbooni 102.59 95.41 MERU County 85.35 79.05 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Buuri 92.3 81.32 Central Imenti 86.55 81.59 Igembe Central 82.13 78.94 Igembe North 80.13 75.34 Igembe South 75.26 73.68 North Imenti 90.26 83.19 South Imenti 85.82 81.17 Tigania East 82.68 75.79 Tigania West 99.46 89.03 NYERI County 86.66 81.05 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kieni 83.79 79.34 Mathira 79.97 78.99 Mukurweini 106.72 99.36 Town 98.41 91.35 Othaya 90.37 77.78 Tetu 90.50 81.55 KILIFI County 86.20 76.28 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Ganze 95.66 89.34 Kaloleni 100.39 83.13 Magarini 80.38 71.93 Malindi 83.46 67.53 Kilifi-North 82.41 61.17 Rabai 99.48 88.94 Kilifi-South 95.55 78.12 KWALE County 101.81 86.79 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kinango 105.45 90.87 Lungalunga 97.30 86.23 Matuga 96.54 75.85 Msambweni 93.58 68.67 LAMU County 89.19 85.36 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 88.89 84.61 Lamu West 89.36 85.8 TAITA County 107.94 95.94 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. TAVETA Mwatate 107.36 96.26 Taveta 103.13 92.63 Voi 109.76 96.66 Wundanyi 112.32 102.6 NAROK County 91.78 84.92 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Narok-East 97.00 89.99 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Emurua Dikirr 83.02 69.73 Kilgoris 85.70 74.97 Narok-North 84.99 83.39 Narok-South 94.33 85.27 Narok-West 94.09 88.88 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification