July 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance The month of June 2021 marked the beginning of the cold season with several parts of ASAL counties remaining dry. According to metrological department, most of ASAL counties received less than 50 percent of average rainfall with most parts of Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Tana River and Turkana receiving less than 25 percent of average amounts of rainfall during the month of June as shown in Figure 1a.The coastal strip received over 75 percent of average amounts. Spatio-temporal rainfall distribution was generally uneven and poor across the ASAL counties. Figure 1a indicates rainfall Figure 1 a.June Rainfall Performance performance during the month of May as percentage of long term mean (LTM). Rainfall Forecast According to Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), several parts of the country will be generally dry and sunny during the month of July 2021.Counties in Northwestern Region including Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu are likely to receive occasional rainfall during the beginning of the month and near average rainfall towards the end of the month. The expected total rainfall is likely to be near to above the long term average for July. Counties in the Coastal strip including Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale will likely receive occasional rainfall. The expected total rainfall is likely to be near the long-term average amounts for July. The Highlands East of the Rift Valley counties including Nyeri, Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are expected to experience occasional Figure 1b.Rainfall forecast cool and cloudy (overcast skies) conditions with occasional rainsdrizzles while the Northeastern Kenya counties including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo and Southeastern lowlands counties including Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta and parts of Kajiado are likely to remain generally sunny and dry. Occasional cool and cloudy conditions are however likely to occur over some counties in southeastern Kenya especially those bordering the highlands east of the rift valley. Figure 2 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in June 2020 with that in June 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of June 2020. Figure 2: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), June 2020 and June 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) June Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) June 2020 2021 As at the end of June 2021, counties experiencing vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included Marsabit, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River, Wajir and Kilifi.The six counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit except Isiolo that is in severe vegetation deficit band implying that the VCI values recorded in June 2021 were below normal indicating that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the six counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of June 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level; Kilifi South, Rabai (Kilifi), Isiolo North and Isiolo South (Isiolo County) and Lagdera (Garissa) recorded the lowest VCI values with Kilifi two sub counties in extreme vegetation deficit band. Lagdera (Garissa) and Isiolo (Isiolo North and South) are in severe vegetation deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in June 2021 in those particular areas. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of June 2021.The vegetation condition has deteriorated as compared to the previous month of May 2021. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), June 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (2) Rabai and Kilifi South (Kilifi) Severe vegetation (1) (3) deficit Isiolo Lagdera (Garissa), Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Moderate (5) (21) vegetation deficit Marsabit Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Dadaab, Township) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini, Malindi) Wajir Kitui (Kitui Rural) Kwale (Kinango) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Marsabit (Laisaimis) Samburu Garissa (Samburu east) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Wajir (Wajir East, Eldas, Wajir south) Tana river Kilifi Normal vegetation (6) (35) greenness Kitui, Taita Taveta, Samburu, Wajir (Tarbaj Wajir-West Wajir-North Turkana (Turkana North, Turkana East) Meru Lamu, Kwale, Laikipia (Tigania East, Igembe North) Taita taveta (Taveta, Voi) Marsabit (Moyale North Horr Saku) Mandera (Mandera South Mandera West, Lafey Mandera East) Makueni (Makueni, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West) Lamu (Lamu West) Laikipia (Laikipia East, Laikipia-West) Kwale (Lungalunga Matuga, Msambweni) Kitui (Kitui South, Kitui West, Kitui East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West) Kilifi (Kilifi-North) Embu (Manyatta) Baringo (Mogotio) Vegetation (11) (54) greenness above Baringo, Embu, Turkana, Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Embu normal Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, (Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Garissa (Ijara) Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Narok, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Kajiado-East, Kajiado-North, Kajiado-South), Kajiado-West Kitui (Kitui-Central) West Pokot, Mandera Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West,) Makueni (Kilome, Mbooni) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, South Imenti South Imenti, Tigania West) Narok (Narok-East, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok-South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South, Turkana West) Makueni (Kaiti) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently fair and on declining trend as compared to normal period. The condition is as result of decline in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality and increase in distances covered by livestock in search of pasture and water due to drying open water sources. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally fair to poor condition with Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Tana river, Laikipia and Kitui reporting poor pasture condition as shown in Table 2.The current pasture and browse condition is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month due to the poor performance of the 2021 long rains season. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, June 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Embu Marsabit Lamu Garissa Baringo Kajiado kwale Garissa Kajiado Taita Taveta Isiolo Embu Laikipia Isiolo Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Wajir Kilifi Lamu Kitui Makueni Kitui Narok Laikipia Mandera Makueni Taita Taveta Tana River Meru Kwale Mandera Tharaka Nithi Wajir Narok Meru Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is on worsening trend as compared to previous month due to deterioration in pasture and browse quantity and quality. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties except Lamu and Wajir reported livestock body condition as fair to good as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, June 2021 Cattle Goats Lamu Baringo Kwale Kajiado Lamu Baringo Marsabit Kajiado Embu Marsabit Makueni Wajir Embu Makueni Garissa Meru Garissa Meru Isiolo Taita Taveta Isiolo Taita Taveta Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Kitui Kitui Kwale Laikipia Laikipia Mandera Mandera Narok Narok Tana River Tana River Wajir West Pokot Milk production Milk production is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month as 11 counties including Embu, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, and Tana river are on worsening trend while twelve (12) counties namely; Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Kwale have milk production below LTA. The following seven (7) counties including Embu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta, Tana River and West Pokot recorded milk production above LTA. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, June 2021 Milk Embu Lamu Baringo Narok Baringo Embu Production Makueni Mandera Garissa Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Garissa Narok Samburu Isiolo Turkana Laikipia Kajiado Nyeri Wajir Kajiado West Pokot Lamu Kilifi Taita Taveta Kilifi Makueni Kitui Tana River Kitui Mandera Marsabit West Pokot Laikipia Wajir Meru Marsabit Kwale Nyeri Meru Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable as compared to the previous month and above LTA owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is still fair as illustrated in Table 5. The cattle prices in Mandera, Nyeri, Turkana and Marsabit are below due to deteriorating body condition in those particular counties. The prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of June in about 65 percent of the ASAL counties as shown in Table 4. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, June 2021 Cattle Baringo Embu Laikipia Mandera Lamu Baringo Embu Kilifi Prices Garissa Isiolo Taita Taveta Nyeri Narok Garissa Isiolo Kitui Kajiado Kilifi Wajir Turkana Tana River Kajiado Turkana Kitui Lamu Marsabit Laikipia Meru Narok Makueni Meru Samburu Mandera Nyeri Makueni Samburu Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of May , goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Marsabit,Makueni and Nyeri counties.The goat prices have remained stable as compared to the previous month due to fair state of livestock body condition however they remain low as compared to normal season. Table 6.0: Goat prices, June 2021 Goat Prices Baringo Garissa Makueni Tana River Baringo Embu Kitui Embu Isiolo Nyeri Garissa Isiolo Makueni Kajiado Kitui Marsabit Kajiado Kilifi Marsabit Kilifi Lamu Laikipia Lamu Laikipia Mandera Mandera Meru Narok Meru Narok Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Nithi Samburu Wajir Taita Taveta Wajir Taita Taveta Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale West Pokot Turkana Kwale March to May (MAM) long rains season ended across the marginal agricultural areas and thus Kilifi,Makueni,Nyeri(Kieni),Taita taveta and Kwale reported fair crop condition as compared to good in normal season however Kitui reported that most of the crops withered due to moisture stress as result of depressed rains. Crops in marginal agricultural counties were at grain filling and harvesting stage. Farmers are expecting below average crop production due to depressed rains received. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in June as compared to the previous month. As demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are largely favourable with 12 counties recording prices that are below LTA however the prices of maize are increasing and thus require close monitoring.Garissa,Mandera,Marsabit ,Taita taveta,Wajir have maize prices above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, June 2021 Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Garissa Isiolo Baringo Kajiado Baringo Embu Mandera Kajiado Embu Meru Garissa Isiolo Taita Taveta Lamu Kilifi Wajir Kilifi Kitui Wajir Makueni Kitui West Pokot Laikipia Lamu Marsabit Narok Laikipia Makueni Narok Nyeri Meru Mandera Nyeri Turkana Samburu Samburu Tharaka Nithi Tana river West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Kwale Turkana Kwale Access to water for households In comparison to the long term average, 20 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is increase in distance to household water source as result of the drying water sources.The late onset of the MAM rains coupled with poor performance is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, June 2021. Distance from Baringo Embu Kitui Baringo Garissa Embu Isiolo households to main Garissa Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Lamu Narok Kajiado Kilifi water sources Kajiado Kilifi Marsabit Tana River Taita Taveta Kitui Laikipia Laikipia Lamu West Pokot Makueni Meru Makueni Meru Turkana Mandera Nyeri Mandera Narok Kwale Samburu Nyeri Wajir Tharaka Nithi Samburu Wajir Taita Taveta Marsabit Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is on worsening trend across the counties. In addition, access to water for livestock in 17 counties was above long- term average attributed to the poor performance of the March April May (MAM) long rains season as shown in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, June 2021 Distance from Baringo Embu Mandera Kitui Narok Baringo Embu Isiolo livestock grazing Garissa Isiolo Tana River Meru Garissa Kajiado Kitui area to main water Kajiado Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Laikipia Meru sources Laikipia Lamu Marsabit Lamu Makueni Nyeri Makueni Narok Mandera Samburu Samburu Nyeri West Pokot Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Turkana Tana River Wajir Tharaka Nithi Turkana Marsabit Kwale Kwale Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties except Mandera and Nyeri(kieni),ToT values are above the long- term average (LTA). The TOT is however on worsening trend as compared to the previous month with ten(10) counties reporting worsening trend. The worsening trend is as result of increasing maize prices in relation to stable goat prices. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, June 2021 Terms of Baringo Embu Garissa Mandera Baringo Embu Kajiado trade Isiolo Kajiado Meru Nyeri Garissa Kilifi (ToT) Kilifi Kitui Taita Taveta Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Lamu Laikipia Lamu Wajir Narok Makueni Makueni Marsabit Nyeri Mandera Narok Taita Taveta Meru Samburu Tana River Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi West Pokot West Pokot Wajir Marsabit Turkana Turkana Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. As compared to the previous month,the MUAC is on worsening trend with eight(8) counties including kajiado,Laikipia,Lamu,Makueni,Nyeri,Samburu,Tana River and Wajir recording worsening trend.The negative trend in malnutrition of the eight(8)counties was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), June 2021 Embu Kilifi Baringo Baringo Embu Kajiado Isiolo Kwale Garissa Garissa Isiolo Laikipia MUAC Lamu Laikipia Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Lamu Mandera Makueni Kitui Kwale Marsabit Makueni Marsabit Meru Narok Mandera Meru Nyeri Tana River Samburu Nyeri Narok Taita Taveta Samburu Wajir Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Tana River Turkana West Pokot Turkana Wajir Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of June 2021.On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, Twelve (12) counties namely Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Samburu, Kitui, Lamu, Isiolo and Laikipia are in the alert drought phase while Eleven (11) counties reported Normal drought phase as at July. During the month under review, Fourteen (14) counties reported worsening trend, eight (8) counties recorded stable trend while one county reported an improvement .The worsening trend across most of ASAL counties is as result of the poor rains received during the March April May (MAM) 2021 long rains season. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, June 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Kajiado Embu Meru Narok Nyeri Taita Taveta Kwale Tharaka Nithi Alert Lamu Kitui Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Mandera Samburu Wajir Alarm Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Activation of satellite livestock markets and commercial destocking to salvage pastoralists against imminent losses with expected progression of the long dry spell. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th June 2021 BARINGO County 45.9 55.49 The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness Central 43.91 54.89 in the month of June except Mogotio which was at normal greenness. This is attributed the late cessation of MAM rainfall. Eldama 49.44 58.38 Mogotio 38.31 47.3 North 49.57 60.67 South 46.43 54.27 Tiaty 46.0 55.8 MANDERA County 49.57 50.26 The county and its sub counties are in Normal to above normal vegetation greenness Banissa 49.93 55.43 in the month of June which is stable trend. M East 35.55 43.98 Lafey 42.47 46.69 M North 52.16 58.28 M South 53.05 45.21 M West 52.96 48.94 TURKANA County 51.82 59.31 The county is in improvement in VCI for the county and four of its sub counties T Central 57.36 63.5 having recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness in the month of June. Turkana North and East recorded Normal vegetation greenness. T. East 38.79 46.17 T. Loima 61.91 72.75 T. North 41.86 48.07 T. South 58.83 66.5 T. West 62.52 69.97 MARSABIT County 32.57 32.97 The county and one of its sub counties remained at moderate vegetation deficit Laisaimis 25.01 24.94 band. Moyale was stable at normal vegetation greenness. This is due to MAM seasonal onset in Moyale. North Horr and Saku wards improved from moderate Moyale 48.59 41.93 deficit to normal vegetation greenness. N. Horr 32.79 35.09 Saku 32.01 35.25 WAJIR County 36.66 31.75 The situation worsens in the county from normal vegetation greenness to moderate W East 40.39 34.75 vegetation deficit. Wajir North and Tarbaj maintained normal vegetation greenness. W.Eldas 32.13 26.48 W. North 49.81 42.5 W. South 30.5 26.8 W.Tarbaj 45.5 40 W West 29.86 26.24 SAMBURU County 33.83 38.72 The county improved from moderate vegetation deficit to Normal vegetation S East 27.57 28.66 greenness in the month under review when compared to the previous month of May. Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S. North 38.93 48.33 S. West 41.81 46.59 COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 Color VCI values Drought Category as at 30th month (3-month) May 2021 as at 27th 50 Vegetation greenness above normal June 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness GARISSA County 32.02 29.37 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band with Balambala 23.56 22.92 Ijara sub county improving from Normal vegetation greenness to above normal greenness band. However, Lagdera subcounty also remained at severe vegetation Daadab 28.78 24.98 deficit. Fafi 33.41 29.43 Ijara 49.93 50.58 Lagdera 15.89 12.17 Dujis 24.98 22.72 ISIOLO County 22.67 18.72 The entire county condition deteriorated from moderate vegetation deficit to severe I. North 24.45 19.77 vegetation deficit following poor performance and early cessation of the MAM rains. I. South 20.00 17.13 TANA County 29.94 27.48 The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate vegetation condition in the RIVER Bura 28.89 27.71 month of June. Galole 24.34 20.74 Garsen 34.33 31.49 KAJIADO County 63.43 58.69 Stability noted across the county with all sub counties remaining at above normal K. Central 62.17 53.39 vegetation greenness conditions in the month of June. K. East 62.59 59.71 K. North 61.66 55.75 K. South 57.22 53.85 K. West 69.58 65.22 LAIKIPIA County 36.48 39.63 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness with Laikipia North at L. East 45.03 48.35 moderate vegetation deficit. L. North 32.31 34.74 L. West 40.16 44.57 THARAKA County 57.05 62.68 The county is in Above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. The NITHI Chulga 66.97 65.65 situation is stable when compared to the previous month of May. Tharaka sub- county improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness. Maara 69.81 64 Tharaka 49.31 61.13 WEST County 50.93 56.87 The vegetation greenness was above normal for the county and all the sub-counties POKOT Kacheliba 44.2 53.22 with Kacheliba and Sigor improving from normal to above normal vegetation Kapenguria 58.28 59.5 Pokot South 64.22 70.36 Sigor 49.11 53.32 EMBU County 64.33 57.06 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month of June across Manyatta 64.57 48.55 most of the sub-counties with vegetation greenness above normal. Manyatta sub- county deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Mbeere North 65.56 64.02 Mbeere South 61.9 55.41 Runyenjes 70.42 57.16 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT KITUI County 39.49 40.35 The county and all of its sub counties remained stable at Above normal, normal vegetation greenness and moderate vegetation deficit. Kitui Central 51.04 52.66 Kitui East 42.87 41.84 Mwingi Central 38.22 35.16 Mwingi North 36.51 38.66 Mwingi West 44.04 43.11 Kitui Rural 30.43 27.87 Kitui South 38.6 40.77 42.68 46.83 Kitui West County 51.44 53.03 The county and most of its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation MAKUENI Kaiti 71.55 63.88 greenness conditions. The situation is stable for most parts when compared to the previous month of May. Kibwezi East worsened from above normal to normal Kibwezi East 51.4 48.3 vegetation greenness. Kibwezi West 42.32 48.83 Kilome 68.13 67.72 Makueni 43.85 48.33 Mbooni 60.63 63.73 County 56.62 55.81 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county and its Sub-counties MERU Buuri 57.08 56.9 except for Igembe North and Tigania East which recorded normal vegetation Central Imenti 65.95 56.37 Igembe Central 57.91 66.04 Igembe North 37.73 40.98 Igembe South 66.37 70.47 North Imenti 70.22 57.12 South Imenti 72.3 68.27 Tigania East 46.76 39.28 Tigania West 57.84 53.22 County 68.99 65.65 The county and its sub counties remained stable recording above normal vegetation Kieni 63.64 63.9 greenness just like the previous month of May. Mathira 68.72 59.21 Mukurweini 75.43 51.72 NYERI Town 78.56 77.51 Othaya 81.71 79.14 Tetu 74.77 63.77 KILIFI County 27.2 24.93 Constancy in vegetation condition noted across the county and most of its sub Ganze 21.49 22.94 counties recording moderate vegetation deficit. Kilifi North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. However, Rabai and Kilifi south sub-counties Kaloleni 21.55 21.6 worsened from severe to extreme vegetation deficit. Magarini 29.89 25.84 Malindi 28.85 24.94 Kilifi-North 40.11 42.32 Rabai 17.21 9.14 Kilifi-South 10.86 4.53 KWALE County 42.55 38.57 Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county which is stable when Kinango 37.17 34.22 the month under review is compared to the previous month of May except Kinango which worsened from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. Lungalunga 53.4 48.88 Matuga 43.63 36.06 Msambweni 51.81 47.42 County 45.31 43.66 The entire county remained in normal vegetation greenness. Lamu east is in above Lamu East 51.19 51.66 normal vegetation greenness. Lamu West 41.91 39.04 TAITA County 50.42 46.28 Decrease in the vegetation greenness condition from above normal to normal TAVETA Mwatate 61.12 57.24 vegetation greenness. Voi sub-county remains in normal vegetation greenness while the county worsened from above normal to normal greenness. Taveta 58.76 52.83 Voi 42.31 38.93 Wundanyi 67.91 62.86 County 67.3 65.09 NAROK Narok-East 64.52 65.23 Emurua Dikirr 70.98 66.12 The county and its sub-counties remained stable in above normal vegetation Kilgoris 64.15 56.73 greenness band. The attributing factor is good MAM seasonal rainfall performance Narok-North 61.21 63.82 in this region. Narok-South 71.71 71 Narok-West 68.68 64.18 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification