December 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance for November, 2021 During the month of November 2021, dry weather conditions were experienced over several parts of the ASALs. However, occasional rainfall was experienced over northern Wajir and Mandera. Isolated storms were also recorded over the Southeastern lowlands, Coastal of Makueni and Kilifi respectively. Mandera and Msabaha are the only stations that recorded above normal rainfall at 170.6 and 154.8, respectively. Moyale, Embu and Meru recorded near average rainfall at 82.3, 80.7 and 77.2 respectively. The distribution both in time and space Figure 1. November Rainfall performance was generally poor in most areas with most of the rainfall being experienced during the last week of November. Rainfall Forecast for December 2021 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for December 2021 indicates that; During this period, warmer than average SSTs have also been observed along the equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean and near average SSTs over equatorial Western Indian Ocean indicating the existence of a neutral IOD. The forecast indicates that several parts of the ASALs are likely to experience below average rainfall during the month of December including; Turkana, Marsabit, West Pokot, Baringo, Laikipia, Meru, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera and Garissa. The Southeastern and coastal counties are however Figure 1. November Rainfall forecast likely to receive near to below average rainfall as depicted including; Kajiado, Narok, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale counties. Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in November 2020 with that in November 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of November 2020 attributed to poor performance of rainfall in the previous season. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2020 and November 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) November 2020 November 2021 As at the end of November 2021, counties experiencing moderate vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included; Garissa, Kitui, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Wajir. The eight counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in November 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the eight counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of November 2021 is summarized in Table At sub county level, Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Msambweni) recorded Extreme vegetation deficit. On the other hand, Garissa (Lagdera) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kilifi (Magarini) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga) Lamu (Lamu West) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) recorded the low VCI values with the ten (10) sub counties currently falling in the severe deficit band which is attributed to the current dry conditions. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (8) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Msambweni) Severe vegetation (3) (11) deficit Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale Garissa (Lagdera) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kilifi (Magarini) Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga, Matuga) Lamu (Lamu West) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) Moderate (8) (31) vegetation deficit Garissa, Kitui, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township, ,Dadaab) Kilifi Taita Taveta, Tana River, Wajir (Magarini) Kitui ( Kitui East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West, Kitui- Rural, Kitui-South) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni, Kinango) Lamu (Lamu East) Mandera( Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera South, Mandera West) Marsabit (Laisaimis, Moyale, North Horr) Meru( Igembe North, Igembe South), Samburu (Samburu East) Taita Taveta( Voi, Mwatate)Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Wajir (Wajir East, Wajir North, Eldas, Tarbaj) Normal vegetation (7) (24) greenness Embu, Kajiado, Laikipia, Makueni, Meru, Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) Samburu, Tharaka Nithi Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-East, Kajiado-South) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu East) Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (Igembe Central, Tigania East, Tigania west) Narok (Narok-East), Nyeri (Township) Samburu (Samburu North) Taita Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka) Turkana (Turkana North) Wajir (Wajir East, Tarbaj, Eldas) Vegetation (5) (39) greenness Above Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Turkana, West Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, Baringo normal Pokot North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-West, Kajiado-North) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia( Laikipia East, Laikipia West) Makueni (Kaiti, Mbooni) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, North Imenti, South Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Mathira, Othaya, Tetu) Samburu (Samburu West)Tharaka Nithi (Maara) Turkana (Turkana Central, Turkana East, Loima, Turkana West, Turkana South) Wajir (Wajir North) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor conditions except in West Pokot and Narok that reported fair pasture condition due to the moderate light showers received as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month as result of two consecutive failed seasons and current Poor performance of the 2021 long rains season. The moderate rains received during the first week of December have not yet had impact on vegetation condition across ASALs counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, November 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Narok Baringo Laikipia Embu West Pokot Embu Narok Garissa Garissa Samburu Isiolo Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Kajiado Turkana Kilifi Kilifi West Pokot Kitui Kitui Laikipia Lamu Lamu Makueni Makueni Mandera Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Meru Meru Nyeri Nyeri Taita Taveta Samburu Tana River Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is on a declining trend as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3.The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 long rains season. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, November 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Taita Taveta Garissa Baringo Taita Taveta Isiolo Embu West Pokot Isiolo Embu West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Kajiado Kilifi Lamu Kitui Mandera Kitui Mandera Laikipia Marsabit Laikipia Marsabit Makueni Nyeri Lamu Nyeri Meru Tana River Makueni Tana River Narok Turkana Meru Turkana Samburu Wajir Narok Wajir Tharaka Nithi Samburu Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening and stable trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season and persistent dry period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, November 2021 Milk Narok Kajiado Baringo Embu Baring Isiolo Production West Pokot Laikipia Embu Kitui Garissa Kilifi Makueni Samburu Garissa Meru Makueni Kwale Kwale Isiolo Samburu Narok Laikipia Kilifi Taita Taveta Lamu Kitui Mandera Lamu Marsabit Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Tana River Meru Tharaka Nithi Tana River West Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices are stable as compared to the previous month but on a worsening trend owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is poor as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However Lamu, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi and West Pokot reported above normal LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, November 2021 Cattle Lamu Baringo Embu Baringo Garissa Prices Tharaka-Nithi Isiolo Garissa Embu Kajiado West-Pokot Kitui Kajiado Isiolo Kilifi Taita-Taveta Kilifi Kitui Lamu Narok Laikipia Laikipia Meru Wajir Mandera Makueni Tana-River Makueni Marsabit Mandera Tharaka-Nithi Meru Marsabit Wajir Nyeri Narok Samburu Nyeri Tana-River Samburu Turkana Taita-Taveta West-Pokot Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of November, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly below average or close to LTA except in Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Tana River and West Pokot counties. The goat prices trend are mostly stable but on worsening trend as compared to the previous month of October 2021. Table 6.0: Goat prices, November 2021 Goat Prices Laikipia Baringo Garissa Baringo Kajiado Makueni Embu Kajiado Isiolo Embu Kilifi Narok Kilifi Lamu Garissa Marsabit Tana River Kitui Mandera Isiolo Kitui Meru West Pokot Meru Marsabit Laikipia Nyeri Taita-Taveta Nyeri Lamu Makueni Tana River Samburu Mandera Tharaka- Narok Nithi Samburu Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Tharaka-Nithi Livestock Mortality During the reporting period, counties including Turkana, Garissa, Embu, Isiolo, Narok, Mandera and Marsabit reported livestock mortality as result of starvation and diseases. Table 7 showing Livestock Mortality County Cause of mortality Hot spots Embu Starvation and dehydration Kiambere and Evurore Garissa Dehydration and starvation Whole county Isiolo Dehydration and starvation Oldonyiro, Kinna, Sericho and Cherab wards Turkana Diseases,dehydration and starvation Pastoral areas of Turkana North, South and East Mandera Starvation and dehydration Pastoral areas of entire county Marsabit Vector borne blood parasites Entire county Narok Predation Parts of transmara October to December (OND) long rains season onset was late and thus planted crops did not germinate forcing farmers to replant again. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in November as compared to the previous month of October as demonstrated in Table 8, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 8.0: Maize prices, November 2021 Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Embu Baringo Kilifi Wajir Baringo Embu Garissa Lamu Garissa Kilifi Isiolo Makueni Isiolo Tana River Kajiado Meru Kajiado Kitui Narok Kitui Laikipia Samburu Laikipia Mandera Kwale Lamu Marsabit Makueni Nyeri Mandera Taita Taveta Marsabit Tana River Meru Tharaka Nithi Narok Turkana Nyeri Wajir Samburu West Pokot Taita Taveta WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 22 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a decrease in distance to household water source. The decrease in average distances to water points for households is due to the continuing rains in most of the counties. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor rainfall performance is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, November 2021 Distance from Baringo Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Garissa Baringo households to Embu Mandera Kitui Embu main water Garissa Marsabit Laikipia Kajiado sources Isiolo Samburu Lamu Kilifi Kajiado Tharaka Makueni Nyeri Kilifi Nithi Meru Turkana Kitui Wajir Narok Laikipia Taita Taveta Lamu Tana River Makueni West Pokot Mandera Marsabit Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 10. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties. 99 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at stable and worsening trend as shown in table 9.0. The rains received during the first week of December have slightly improved water recharge however the livestock trekking distances remains above long term average. Table 10.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, November 2021 Distance from Baringo Mandera Baringo Embu livestock grazing Embu Marsabit Garissa Kilifi area to main Garissa Tana River Isiolo Kitui water sources Isiolo Kajiado Wajir Kajiado Laikipia Kilifi Lamu Kitui Makueni Laikipia Meru Lamu Narok Makueni Nyeri Mandera Samburu Marsabit Taita Taveta Meru Tharaka Narok Nithi Samburu West Pokot Terms of trade Table 11 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below and at the long-term average (LTA).The TOT is stable conditions in most counties. The increasing maize prices versus decreasing goat prices the reason behind below average terms of trade. Table 11.0: Terms of trade, November 2021 Terms of Garissa Baringo Baringo Garissa trade (ToT) Kilifi Embu Embu Kitui Makueni Isiolo Isiolo Laikipia Narok Kajiado Kajiado Lamu West Pokot Kitui Kilifi Mandera Laikipia Makueni Narok Lamu Marsabit Taita Taveta Mandera Meru Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Nyeri West Pokot Meru-North Samburu Kwale Nyeri Tana River Samburu Wajir Health and nutrition Table 12 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. In comparison to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has worsened in most counties. Baringo, Garissa, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu and Tana River have MUAC above long term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the five counties was attributed to the continued reduction in milk consumption due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services as result of Covid-19 pandemic. Baringo, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Turkana and Wajir counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. There is no county that recorded an improvement in trend. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), November2021 Baringo Embu Isiolo Embu Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kajiado Garissa Isiolo MUAC Mandera Laikipia Kitui Kilifi Kajiado Marsabit Lamu Makueni Laikipia Kitui Narok Meru Turkana Lamu Makueni Nyeri Kwale Wajir Narok Mandera Samburu West-Pokot Taita-Taveta Marsabit Tana River Tana River Meru Tharaka-Nithi Nyeri West-Pokot Samburu Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of November 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, nine (9) counties; Embu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu and Taita-Taveta are in the alert drought phase; Two (2) counties including; Baringo and West-Pokot are in Normal drought phase whereas Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Lamu, Mandera, Turkana, Kwale and Tharaka-Nithi are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, Tana-River reported an improving trend, five (5) counties recorded stable trend while seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of poor rains during this season. The rains received during the first week of December have not yet had positive impact on drought phase classification across ASAL counties. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, November 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal West Pokot Baringo Alert Makueni Kajiado Laikipia Alarm Tana-River Kitui Isiolo Wajir Lamu Marsabit Mandera Kilifi Garissa Tharaka-Nithi Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th November 2021 BARINGO County 76.48 69.16 The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation Central 88.37 87.43 greenness in the month of November. Eldama 81.7 83.15 Mogotio 74.09 62.88 North 79.18 72.34 South 65.46 55.1 Tiaty 77.42 69.33 MANDERA County 47.3 34.18 The county and four of its sub counties deteriorated from normal greenness to Banissa 42.28 36.87 moderate vegetation deficit in the month of November. Banissa and Mandera M East 41.19 28.13 North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 43.11 30.35 M North 48.75 37.1 M South 52.5 34.11 M West 48.77 34.54 TURKANA County 54.82 56.03 There is stability in VCI for the county as all of its sub counties recorded Above T Central 65.27 59.46 Normal and normal vegetation greenness in the month of November. Turkana T. East 49.96 52.46 East improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness while T. Loima 65.39 78.63 Turkana North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. T. North 45.51 42.19 T. South 53.94 57.9 T. West 60.15 59.74 MARSABIT County 35.55 25 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded a moderate vegetation deficit Laisaimis 32.14 23.39 during the month of November which is a deteriorating trend as compared to Moyale 37.51 23.13 the previous month. Saku deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation N. Horr 36.14 25.78 greenness. Saku 50.8 36.14 WAJIR County 37.21 24.03 The County and four of its sub counties deteriorated from normal vegetation W East 40.89 26.96 greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month of November. Wajir W. Eldas 36.15 22 South and West worsened from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. W. North 52.62 34.76 W. South 28.44 18.63 W. Tarbaj 49.26 31.88 W West 28.92 17.56 SAMBURU County 40.96 39.15 The County and one of its sub counties remained stable at normal vegetation S East 33.41 28.13 greenness. Samburu East remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while S. North 46.33 47.63 Samburu West remained stable at normal greenness. S. West 53.33 54.95 GARISSA County 32.7 25.01 The county and all its Sub counties remained stable at Moderate vegetation Balambala 29.98 20.5 deficit band during the month under review with a decline in the VCI values. Daadab 32.74 25.69 Lagdera worsened from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. 34.97 25.83 Ijara 32.67 30.24 Lagdera 29.01 18.99 Dujis 32.33 22.07 ISIOLO County 29.57 18.51 The entire county and its sub-counties deteriorated from moderate to severe I. North 30.22 19.28 vegetation deficit during the month of November. I. South 28.58 17.34 TANA RIVER County 37.83 24.61 The county and all its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit which Bura 34.62 22.19 was a decline from the previous month of October. Bura remained stable at Galole 36.7 23.73 moderate vegetation deficit. Garsen 41.27 27.21 KAJIADO County 56.18 44.79 The County and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal and normal K. Central 46.2 37.48 vegetation greenness during the month of November. The County, Kajiado East K. East 56.05 41.63 and South deteriorated form above normal to normal vegetation greenness. K. North 41.66 52.01 Kajiado North improved from normal to above normal greenness. K. South 56.15 42.18 K. West 62.23 52.22 LAIKIPIA County 48.17 46.71 The County and Laikipia North remained stable at normal vegetation greenness, L. East 38.42 50.1 while Laikipia West remained stable at above normal greenness. Laikipia East L. North 40.23 38.67 improved from moderate deficit to above normal vegetation greenness. L. West 67.72 60.13 THARAKA County 41.35 35.83 The county and Chuka recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month NITHI Chulga 53.19 49.07 of November. Maara remained stable at above normal greenness while Tharaka Maara 52.64 56.32 remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Tharaka 33.27 24.29 WEST POKOT County 74.49 72.27 The vegetation greenness was above normal for all the sub-counties. This was a Kacheliba 70.6 69.2 notable stable trend in comparison to the previous month. Kapenguria 82.26 78.93 Pokot South 81.87 82.71 Sigor 70.67 66.08 EMBU County 47.86 46.99 The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable during the month of Manyatta 56.56 55.72 November with Normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta and Runyenjes sub- Mbeere North 47.22 45.83 counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness with improving Mbeere South 42.65 41.31 VCI values. Runyenjes 59.02 61.06 County 46.65 29.68 The county and five of its sub-counties were at moderate vegetation deficit KITUI which was a decline as compared to the previous month of October. Kitui Central Kitui Central 63.71 45.22 and West deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness while Mwingi Kitui East 49.34 30.96 North deteriorated form moderate to severe vegetation deficit. Mwingi 37.92 22.59 Mwingi North 27.94 17.38 Mwingi West 46.72 33.76 Kitui Rural 37.53 24.96 Kitui South 53.47 33.79 Kitui West 57.19 39.62 County 62.1 44.59 The county and all its sub counties recorded normal and above normal Kaiti 82.18 66.58 vegetation greenness conditions which is a stable and deteriorating trend during Kibwezi East 56.8 39.61 the month of November. MAKUENI Kibwezi West 59.22 42.64 Kilome 70.2 49.82 Makueni 54.69 38.79 Mbooni 77.14 56.0 County 45.72 42.43 The county and seven of its sub-counties were at normal and above normal Buuri 49.06 51.23 vegetation greenness during the month under review. Igembe North and South Central Imenti 43.88 53.33 deteriorated from normal to moderate vegetation deficit. Igembe 46.4 35.14 Igembe North 42.36 28.94 Igembe South 41.06 26.7 North Imenti 50.49 55.99 South Imenti 51.71 60.66 Tigania East 41.75 40.31 Tigania West 47.18 44.2 County 53.4 56.82 The county and almost all of its sub counties remained stable at above normal NYERI Kieni 49.21 51.65 vegetation greenness. Tetu remained stable at normal greenness. Kieni Mathira 54.66 60.05 improved from normal to above normal greenness. Mukurweini 61.37 62.77 Town 60.5 69.13 Othaya 64.48 68.84 Tetu 49.24 47.6 County 21.24 10.17 The vegetation condition in the county and Magarini deteriorated from KILIFI Ganze 16.14 6.5 moderate to severe vegetation deficit. The rest of the sub-counties were at Kaloleni 15.74 7.48 extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. Magarini 25.89 14.19 Malindi 8.98 1.7 Kilifi-North 18.6 9.93 Rabai 11.26 -0.48 Kilifi-South 16.95 -8.75 KWALE County 22.88 13.58 The county and all its sub-counties deteriorated from moderate to severe and Kinango 20.89 12.36 extreme vegetation deficit during the month under review. Lungalunga 22.99 15.97 Matuga 28.03 16.82 Msambweni 32.98 8.23 LAMU County 27.85 20.88 The County and Lamu East were at moderate vegetation deficit while Lamu Lamu East 41.36 28.41 West recorded severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Lamu West 20.03 16.53 County 54.63 34.05 The County and its sub-counties and two of its sub-counties were at moderate TAITA TAVETA Mwatate 54.25 31.61 vegetation deficit during the month of November. Taveta and Wundanyi Taveta 60.43 39.87 deteriorated from above normal to normal greenness. Voi 51.06 31.08 Wundanyi 69.16 48.39 County 56.02 56.72 NAROK Narok-East 44.86 42.22 There was stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, in the County Emurua Dikirr 80.6 84.65 and four of its sub- counties. The VCI value for Narok East sub-county also Kilgoris 66.96 74.86 remained stable at normal greenness with a decreasing trend. Narok North Narok-North 49.79 52.28 deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness in the month Narok-South 54.12 50.6 under review. Narok-West 58.8 60.18 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification