1.1 County Background - Page 1
1.2 Methodology, Objective And Approach - Page 1
2.0 Drivers Of Food And Nutrition Security In The County - Page 2
2.1 Rainfall Performance - Page 2
2.2 Insecurity/Conflict - Page 2
2.3 Floods And Flash Floods - Page 2
2.4 Other Shocks And Hazards 2.4.1 Fall Arm Worm ............................................................................................................ 3 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY............................ 3 - Page 3
3.1 Availability 3.1.1 Crop Production ........................................................................................................... 3 3.1.3 Livestock Production .................................................................................................... 5 3.2 Access.................................................................................................................................... 9 3.2.1 Markets - Prices - Functioning .................................................................................... 9 3.2.5 Food Consumption ..................................................................................................... 12 - Page 3
3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and Mortality Patterns ............................................................................ 14 3.3.3 Nutritional Status and Dietary Diversity.................................................................. 15 - Page 14
3.4 Trends Of Key Food Security Indicators - Page 15
3.5 Education - Page 16
4.0 Food Security Prognosis - Page 17
4.1 Prognosis Assumptions - Page 17
4.2 Food Security Outlook For August – October 2024 - Page 18
5.0 Conclusion And Interventions - Page 18
5.1 Conclusion - Page 18
5.3 Recommended Interventions 5.3.1 Food Interventions ...................................................................................................... 21 5.3.2 Non-food interventions ............................................................................................... 21 Page ii of 25 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County Background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the north, Laikipia to the east, Nakuru and Kericho to the south, Uasin Gishu to the southwest and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the west. The county covers an Marginal Mixed approximate area of 11,015 square Farming kilometers (Km2) with a population 14% 13% Mixed Farming of 749,000 persons (2024 projections Housing and Population 29% 39% Irrigated Cropping census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). The county is divided 5% Pastoral into seven (7) sub-Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Agro Pastoral Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty East, Tiaty West and Eldama Ravine. There are six main Figure 1: Population Proportion Per Livelihood Zone livelihood zones in the county which include Mixed farming, Pastoral, Agro-pastoral, Marginal mixed, Mixed farming-Horticulture and Irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages, floods and conflicts. Other hazards are livestock pests and diseases in the Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones 1.2 Methodology, Objective and Approach KFSSG normally conducts bi-annual food and nutrition security assessment in the 23 ASAL counties in Kenya. The 2024 long rains food and nutrition security assessment was conducted in July 2024 with main objective being to assess the impact of March to May 2024 rainfall performance, determine the impacts of other shocks and hazards in Baringo County and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. The assessment adopted multi–agency and multi–sector approach. The assessment process used both qualitative and quantitative survey methods in data and information acquisition. Desktop review from various reports, Kenya Health Information System (KHIS), SMART Survey and checklists were used to gather secondary data while key informants, focus group discussion and observation were used to collect primary data. The process commenced with an initial County Steering Group (CSG) meeting held 9th July 2024, followed by a field transect drive across the county on 10th and 11th July 2024. The KFSSG and technical CSG members analyzed both quantitative and qualitative data collected from various sources. Based on the convergence of evidence, the food security and nutrition report for the county including possible recommendations and a 6-month food security prognosis was produced. The preliminary findings of the assessment were presented to the CSG on Thursday, 19th July 2024 at Chamastar Hotel, Kabarnet in Baringo County. Page 1 of 25 2.0 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1 Rainfall Performance The 2024 March-April-May rainfall season had timely onset occurring during the third dekad of March 2024. The amounts were characterized with storm water especially in the third dekad of April and first dekad of May 2024. Enhanced rainfall, above normal levels (126 – 140 percent of the normal), was observed in several parts of the county. Localized areas in Baringo North, Baringo South, and Tiaty recorded normal rainfall (111 – 125 percent of the normal) based on satellite imagery from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), as shown in Figure 2. Spatial distribution was even and frequency was good across the livelihood zones of the county. Cessation was earlier than normal which was experienced during the first dekad of May 2024 as opposed Figure 2: Rainfall Performance (percentage) to normally third dekad of May. 2.2 Insecurity/Conflict Banditry attacks and cattle rustling were experienced during the season in Saimo Soi, Bartabwa wards in Baringo North sub-county, Mukutani and Mochongoi wards in Baringo South and along the borders of Baringo with Elgeyo Marakwet; Tiaty West and Turkana East sub-counties, Tiaty East and Samburu West sub-counties. The conflicts have led to closure of schools, limited access to grazing fields, crop farms and even loss of lives and livelihoods. Subsequently, these events have negatively affected food security in hotspot areas. In response, Operation Maliza Uhalifu, a joint security operation involving the National Police Service and Kenya Defense Forces personnel has been ongoing in disturbed areas alongside community peace dialogues supported by the government and partners. 2.3 Floods and Flash Floods Heavy downpours were experienced, resulting in the overflow of rivers such as Molo, Perkera, Kerio, Wasekes, Olarabal, Nginyang, Emining, and Endao. Moreover, due to the sustained increase and rise in water levels from lake Baringo and 94, Baringo county has experienced serious flooding. Baringo County floods assessment report conducted in May 2024 revealed that 2,352 households were affected by the flooding situation. Approximately 1,955 households were completely displaced, with 1,530 in camps and 425 integrated households, while 397 households partially affected. A total of Page 2 of 25 100 primary schools, 29 junior schools and 10 secondary schools have been affected in one way of another by the recent flood occurrences, causing damage to school infrastructure. Provision of health services were disrupted in Mukutani, Ilchamus and Mochongoi wards. Household productive assets had been submerged in Baringo South, especially areas of Saruni, Ntepes, Loldama, Lemargwenyi, Lkeper, Ldarpoi, Naregare, Maasai, Kailer, Eldume, Leswaa, Sitaan, Ilpunyaki, Rine, Meisori, Kabikoki, Salabani, Murda, Sororwo, Longewan, Torkole, Rugus, Nosukuro, Nguraa, Iti. Floods affected 2,250 of acres of maize, water melon, onions and tomatoes. The flooding destroyed six (6) foot bridges, four (4) culverts/slaps, 31 road networks and 12 drainage works. 2.4 Other Shocks and Hazards 2.4.1 Fall Arm Worm Fall army worm was reported in maize growing areas that affected approximately 42 percent of the area planted in all sub-counties in the county. The spread of the fall army worn is attributed to the dry spell in the month of June 2024. 3.0 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1 Availability Acreage under rainfed and irrigated crops was near normal to above average. Maize stocks held by all actor in the county is currently lower than the long-term average. Farmers have maize stock which are below the long-term average. Forage condition was good across the livelihood zones. Conserved pasture in form of hay in stores is also below the total storage capacity. Livestock body condition for all species was ranging between good to fair across the livelihood zones. 3.1.1 Crop Production The county is dependent on long rains season for rainfed crop production and even for irrigation. The main food crops grown in the county include maize, beans, millet, potatoes, cowpeas, and sorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops (fruits and vegetables) and cash crops (coffee, cotton, macadamia, and pyrethrum). In the Agro-pastoral Zone, maize contributes 90 percent, beans contribute 85 percent, and finger millet contributes 60 percent to food crop production. In contrast, in the Irrigated Zone, tomatoes, watermelons, and seed maize each contribute 90 percent to income (Table 1). Table 1: Contribution of Crops to Income and Food Livelihood Zone Crop Income Food Agro-pastoral Maize 10 90 Beans 15 85 Finger millet 40 60 Cowpeas 40 60 Mixed Maize 40 60 Beans 40 60 Finger millet 30 70 Irrigated Maize 80 20 Tomatoes 90 10 Water melons 90 10 Seed maize 90 10 Page 3 of 25 Rain-fed Crop Production Acreage planted for Irish potatoes increased by 117 percent attributed to more investor supporting Irish potatoes production while area under maize, bean and sorghum remained relatively comparable to long term average. The early onset of the rains coupled with heavy downpour made ploughing difficult. The most affected sub-counties are Mogotio, lower parts of Baringo North, Central, South and Tiaty. The projected yields for maize and beans are lower by 19.3 percent and 42.5 percent compared to the long-term average production during the short rains season respectively. The decrease is attributed to heavy downpour in mid-April which affected planted crops by nutrient leaching hence affecting crop growth in all parts of the county. In addition, fall army worm affected 42 percent of the area planted in all sub-counties in the county, this was because of the dry spell. However, the expected yields for irish potatoes and sorghum is projected to be higher by 98.2 percent and 25.7 percent respectively (Table 2). Table 2: Rain-fed Crop Production Crop Area planted Long Term 2024 Long rains Long Term Average (5 during 2024 Average (5 year) season year) production during Long rains area planted during production the Short rains season season (Ha) the Short rains season (90 kg bags) (90 kg bags) (Ha) Projected Maize 40,465 39,618 801,540 992,950 Beans 20,894 20,244 93,068 161,952 Sorghum 1,690 1,685 25,425 20,220 Irish Potatoes 3,900 1,800 354,820 179,000 Irrigated Crop Production The area planted for irrigated crops increased for various crops, for instance, maize, tomatoes, water melon and seed maize increased by 650, 217, 168 and 3.4 percent respectively. The increase in acreage planted is attributed to sufficient water for irrigation coupled with expansion of irrigation schemes in Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South. The yields are expected to increase by 591, 217, 168 and 16.4 percent for maize, tomatoes, water melon and seed maize respectively (Table 3). About 80-90 percent of the potential acreage for irrigation was utilized due to high water volumes in the rivers. Men are the income earners from the crops, while women and youth managed the crops. Table 3:Irrigated Crop Production Crop Area planted Long Term 2024 Long rains Long Term Average during the 2024 Average (3 years) season production (3 years) production Long rains season area planted during (90 kg bags/MT) during Long rains (ha) Long rains season Projected/actual season (ha) (90 kg bags/MT) Maize 1300 173 29,900 4,325 Tomatoes 260 82 6,500 2,050 Water melons 120 45 3,600 1,350 Seed Maize 2,850 2,755 128,250 110,200 3.1.2 Cereals Stock The maize stocks held by all actor in the county are currently 36 percent lower than the long-term average. Farmers’ maize stock are 49 percent below the long-term average. The bulk of the stock is Page 4 of 25 held in Eldama Ravine sub-county at 60 percent, where few farmers did not dispose of their stock despite high prices. The National Cereal and Produce Board purchased 3,142 bags of 50kg each from farmers (Table 4). Local traders and millers have maize stocks higher than the long-term average by by 27 and 139 percent respectively. The increase is attributed to most households are purchasing maize flour directly from the small millers (posho millers) and also the looming crop failure in agro pastoral and decrease in cereal prices which is good for millers and traders to stock. Traders and millers have more stocks in the pastoral, agro-pastoral, and irrigated livelihood zones as the community depends entirely on markets. The available maize stocks in the county is expected to last for 3 months, as opposed to the normal 4 – 5 months. Table 4: Quantities of Cereal Stocks Held Currently (90-kg bags) Commodity Maize Rice Sorghum Green grams Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Households 140,431 276,686 230 468 860 620 Traders 44,338 34,928 1290 1,056 95 324 1830 150 Millers 19,997 8,382 - - - - - Food Aid/NCPB 3142 @ 14,400 720 3 - - 650 - 50kg Totals 204,766 319,996 2,010 1,059 6,945 794 1,004 770 3.1.3 Livestock Production The main livestock species reared in the county are cattle, goats, sheep and donkeys. Livestock contribute more cash income to households in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones at 88 and 50 percent respectively and approximately 20 – 25 percent contribution to food across all the livelihood zones (Table 5). Table 5: Livestock contribution to food and income per livelihood zone Livelihood Zone Food (Percent) Income (Percent) Mixed farming 25 23 Irrigated Cropping 25 8 Agro-Pastoral 20 50 Pastoral 21 88 The above average performance of the last two consecutive seasons (2023 short rains and 2024 long rains) had resulted to significant improvement in forage condition and water recharge across the livelihood zones. Subsequently, livestock trekking distances drastically reduced leading to improved livestock productivity. Pasture and Browse Situation The current condition for forage condition is good across all the zones which is attributed to enhanced rainfall that characterized by even and good distribution both in space and time. However, localized pockets in pastoral zones of Kwokototo and Churo have limited access to pasture due to an invasive weed such as santa maria fever few (Parthenium Hysterophorus) and Prosopis Juliflora in Ilchamus and parts of Mukutani wards. Pasture that was established last year is being harvested in Agro- Pastoral and Mixed Farming areas though the yields are low. Those which were established this year is actively growing and at piping stage. The available pasture and browse are expected to last 3 months and 6 months in all the zones but depending on the performance of June – July – August 2024 off season rains. Page 5 of 25 Table 6: Pasture and Browse Condition Pasture Browse Livelihood Condition How long to last Factors Condition How long to last Factors zone (Months) Limiting (Months) Limiting access access Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Pastoral Good Good 3 3 Insecurity Good Good 3 3 Insecurity Agro- Good Good 6 6 None Good Good 6 6 None pastoral Mixed Good Good to 3 3 none Good Good 3 3 None farming fair Irrigated Good Good to 3 3 none Good Good 3 3 None Cropping fair Pasture Conservation The county has a total of 93 hay stores with Eldama Ravine, Baringo North and Baringo South having 30, 25 and 20 hay stores respectively. Notably, Tiaty sub-county, classified under the Pastoral livelihood zone, has no hay store. Currently, there are 1,684,000 bales of hay stored across these 93 hay stores, against a total storage capacity of 2,970,000 bales. Each hay bales is estimated to weight approximately 15 kilograms and is priced between Ksh 200 and Ksh 300 per bale (Table 7). Table 7: Baled Hay Sub-county No. of Storage No. of Bales Average Average Comments – E.g. percentage Hay Capacity currently Weight price per held by farmers and other Stores being held per bale bale Institutions (in Kgs) (Ksh) Baringo South 20 300,000 100,000 15 300 20% are held by KVDA 80% Held by farmers Baringo Central 10 20,000 4,000 15 300 30 % by farmers and 70% by Association. Eldama Ravine 30 1,800,000 1,200,000 15 200 80% by farmers 20% FCS Tiaty 0 0 0 0 0 Farmers graze directly but some harvest seeds Baringo North 25 280,000 130,000 15 300 100% by farmers from community stores Mogotio 8 570,000 250,000 15 200 75%By farmer groups 25% by individuals Livestock Productivity Livestock Body Condition The body condition of all livestock species currently ranges from good to fair (BCS 4 and BCS 3) across the livelihood zones, while camels are observed to have fair body condition in all livelihood zone. Goats generally have good body condition except in Pastoral livelihood zone, where their body condition is fair. The good to fair livestock body condition is attributed to gradual improvement in forage condition, water availability, reduced trekking distance and decline of disease occurrences. However, there are some pockets in Pastoral livelihood zones (Tiaty East and Barwessa) with limited access to grazing fields due to insecurity has resulted in fair livestock body condition. The body Page 6 of 25 condition is expected to improve further following the ongoing off-season rains. The good body condition is likely to enhance household purchasing power, thus favourable terms of trade. Table 8: Livestock Body Condition Livelihood zone Cattle Sheep Goat Camel Curren Normal Current Normal Curren Normal Curren Normal t t t Mixed farming BCS 4 BCS3 BCS3 BCS3 BCS4 BCS4 NA N/A Irrigated Cropping BCS4 BCS4 BCS3 BCS3 BCS4 BCS4 NA NA Agro-Pastoral BCS3 BCS4 BCS3 BCS3 BCS4 BCS4 N/A N/A Pastoral BCS3 BCS4 BCS3 BCS3 BCS3 BCS4 BCS 5 BCS 5 Note: BCS – Livestock Body Condition Score BCS 1 – Very Poor (Emaciated) BCS 2 – Poor BCS 3 – Fair BCS 4 – Good BCS 5- Very Good Tropical Livestock Units (Average Number of Livestock) There was a reduction in TLUs among both the poor and medium-income household as a result of increased sales of livestock to pay for school fees and to meet other necessities at household level. Over the last 10 years, the TLUs across all the livelihood zones have decreased by half. The main factor leading to this decline include land sub-division, preceding drought and inadequate feed for livestock, primarily due to climate variability over the years. Table 9: Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs) by Household Income Groups Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Agro-Pastoral 3 6 8 12 Pastoral 4 8 10 15 Irrigated Cropping 3 3.2 4.2 5 Mixed farming 4 4 6 6 Birth Rate Birth rates are high for all livestock species due to the good performance of two consecutive rainfall seasons that supported improved rangeland resources both in quality and quantity thus driving high livestock productivity. Milk Production The production per cow per day is higher than the normal, mainly because of the good rains experienced from March to May, which improved feed availability across all livelihoods. Milk production was ranging between 4 and 7 liters per household per day compared to long-term average of 3 to 5 litres per household per day. In Pastoral livelihood, milk produced was 2 litres against a normal average of 1 litres. The production is expected to stabilize following the ongoing off-season rains, which will rejuvenate forage condition. Table 10: Milk Production, Consumption and Prices Livelihood zone Milk Production Milk consumption (Litres) Prices (Ksh)/Litre (Litres)/Household per Household Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Agro-pastoral 5 - 6 3 - 4 1 2 45 50 Mixed farming 5 - 7 4 - 5 1 1.5 50 60 Pastoral 2 1 1.5 1 60 70 Irrigated cropping 4-6 5 2 2 60 80 Page 7 of 25 Migration The livestock migration patterns were normal during the review period. The migrations were due to depletion of pasture, water sources and insecurity tensions especially in Pastoral areas. Livestock animals are being driven from Tirioko, Toturkuna, Kokwototo to areas around Lake Baringo, Ruko conservancy and Laikipia County. The migrations were triggered by search of pastures by Pastoral communities which are currently in poor condition or invaded by Santa maria fever weed. Outward migration towards the Kerio valley, West Pokot, and Turkana and around Lake Baringo is expected to pick up in the next 3 months if the June–July–August offseason failed. Mortalities No unusual livestock mortalities were reported during the period under review, with normal mortalities reported by communities in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones as a result of (Contagious caprine pleuropneumonia) CCPP in goats and Blue Tongue in Sheep. There were also incidences of livestock abortions in Mukutani and parts of Tiaty East suspected to be caused by vector agents. Water for Livestock The current sources of water for livestock include lakes, boreholes, water pans and rivers. The return trekking distances from grazing area to watering points are currently 1-2 km for Mixed farming and 2-4 km for Pastoral and Agro-pastoral. This distance is lower than normal due to good rains received from months of March to May 2024, which significantly recharged water sources. Open surface water sources are projected to last for 3-4 months. Factors limiting access to water are wild life, especially in areas around lake Baringo, insecurity in Pastoral zones and the salinity of some boreholes. Table 11: Water Availability and Access Livelihood Sources Return average Expected duration to last zone distances (km) (months) for each source Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Streams, Rivers, springs, Streams, Rivers, 1-2 1-3 Continuous Continuous farming piped water, boreholes springs, piped water, boreholes, Irrigated Rivers, shallow wells Rivers, shallow 1-2 1-3 Continuous Continuous cropping and springs wells and springs. Agro- water pans, Boreholes, Streams, water pans, 2-4 3-5 3 3 pastoral rivers Boreholes Pastoral Bore-holes, water pans, Water-pans, Bore- 2-4 3-6 3 3 holes Watering Frequency Currently, all livestock species are watered daily due to the availability of water in various sources attributed to enhanced performance of the last two consecutive rainfall seasons. These seasons supported the full recharge of water sources across all livelihood zones (Table 12). Table 12: Watering Frequency (No. of Days per Week) Livelihood zone Cattle Camels Goats Sheep Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Daily Daily N/A N/A Daily Daily Daily Daily Irrigated cropping Daily Daily N/A N/A Daily Daily Daily Daily Page 8 of 25 Agro-pastoral Daily 2 days N/A N/A Daily Daily Daily Daily Pastoral Daily 2 days Once Once Daily Daily Daily Daily 3.1.4 Impact on Availability The enhanced rainfall performance supported improved rangeland resources which in turn led to good livestock body condition. This improvement has led to increased milk production, higher-than- average livestock prices and decline in food commodities prices, thereby driving favourable terms of trade for households. 3.2 Access Most of the markets in the county were operational, except for a few feeder markets in Tiaty constituency that were affected by insecurity. Maize prices dwindled and currently lower than the long-term average. Livestock prices for all species have increased due to good body condition. The terms of trade were favourable, as households bought more kilograms of cereals from the income obtained by selling one goat. 3.2.1 Markets - Prices - Functioning Market Operations The Main livestock markets include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk, Kinyach, Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei, Amaya, Marigat, Kabel, Majimoto, Emining, Iloti, Kapchorua, Kapcholoi. Nginyang, kolowa, and Kalabata. Supply of livestock to these markets was mainly from local households within the county. For farm produce, Sirwa and Mogotio are the main market, with 40-60 percent of food items sourced locally. The majority of the markets are operational and well provisioned with both livestock and crop produce. Market Prices Maize price The prices for dry white maize have been declining since February 2024, attributed to 2023 short rains maize harvests in areas of Western Kenya and the South Rift. In addition, cross-border imports of maize by Kenyan traders Average (2019-2023) 2023 2024 from Tanzania, Zambia, Uganda and South Africa have 120 also led to reduction in selling prices of maize in Kenya. The 100 ) current average retail price is g k 80 Ksh 57 per kilogram of dry / . white maize. The current retail h s K 60 average price is 17 and 48 ( e percent lower than the 2019 – c 40 i 2023 and the 2023 averages r P 20 respectively at the same period of the year (Figure 3). The 0 maize prices are most likely to Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec remain below the long-term Figure 3: Maize Price Trend average for the next 2-3 months, following the above average March to May 2024 rainfall season that supported enhanced crop production. Page 9 of 25 Goat price The average retail price for a medium size goat as at June 2024 stood at Ksh 4,130 which was 59 percent above the average for the same period from 2019 to 2023 (Figure 4). These above-average goat’s prices are attributed to good body Average (2019-2023) 2023 2024 condition. Data from 4500 NDMA sentinel sites indicates that the 4000 highest prices were 3500 reported in Irrigated 3000 cropping livelihood ) . h zone at Ksh 5,167, s 2500 K while lowest were ( e 2000 observed in the Pastoral c i r 1500 livelihood zone at Ksh P 3,883. The lowest 1000 prices in the Pastoral 500 livelihood zone were 0 attributed to the Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec frequent insecurity incidents, which Figure 4: Average Goat Price Trends hindered access to major livestock markets. With the ongoing off-season rains from July to August 2024, rangeland conditions are expected to further improve, potentially leading to higher than normal goat selling prices. 3.2.2 Terms of Trade The goat to maize ratio among rural households have maintained an upward trend since the beginning of the year. This indicates favourable terms of trade for Pastoral households due to enhanced purchasing power. The Average (2019-2023) 2023 2024 ascending trend has been r o 80 linked to increasing goat f prices and declining maize d e g 70 prices across the livelihood n a 60 zone. Currently, rural h c x households on average, E 50 et a were able to buy 72 z iao G 40 kilograms of maize from M a f 30 income obtained by selling o s m 20 one medium sized goat. a The current goat to maize r 10 g ratio is 76 percent higher o liK 0 than the 2019 to 2023 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec average and 177 percent above the 2023 average at Figure 5: Household Terms of Trade the period of the year Page 10 of 25 (Figure 5). The terms of trade is projected to sustain above average trend through end of December 2024. 3.2.3 Income Sources The main income varied across the livelihood zones, with livestock production being the main income sources for households in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral zones. In Pastoral livelihood zone, livestock production immensely contributes 88 percent to income and 50 percent in Agro-pastoral livelihood zone. Cash crop production is the main income sources (59 percent) in irrigated Cropping while in Mixed farming cash crop production and casual waged labour is relied by 30 percent and 20 percent of the households for income respectively. 3.2.4 Water access and availability (including cost + consumption) Major Water Sources The main sources of water for both livestock and domestic use include rivers, water pans, dams, lakes, streams, protected shallow wells, springs, swamps, boreholes and traditional river wells. Most of these water sources are concentrated in Mixed farming livelihood zones, where the potential is higher compared to Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihoods, which are rocky and poorly served by rivers. Water is more accessible in Mixed farming and Irrigated Farming zones than in Pastoral livelihood zones. Open water sources like rivers, water pans, springs, streams across the county in Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood areas were recharged to between 95-100 percent of their normal capacity as compared to 70-80 percent normally. The available water in these zones is likely to last for five to six months as compared to the normal three to four months. In irrigated cropping and Mixed farming livelihood zones, rivers were recharged up to 100 percent of their normal capacity. The available water is expected to last for five to six months. The general status of water levels in springs, rivers and water pans across all livelihood zones is stable as a result of the enhanced rainfall performance. Presently, 90 - 95 percent of the boreholes are operational across all livelihood zones with some few which are not operational due to normal electromechanical break downs. For example Kamurio borehole, Kongor borehole, Kamar Borehole, Chebinyiny borehole, Kirim borehole, Kipkandule borehole and Barkipii borehole are among those affected. Additionally, Chemarikitich, Chepkitip, Katungura, Sirya Water Pans were reported to have been silted. In isolated cases, there were exceptional water quality challenges along eastern and the western valleys of Baringo county for underground water sources due to high fluoride levels. Distance to Water Sources The average distances to domestic water sources were below normal at 3 to 4.5 km in pastoral and 3 to 3.5 km in Agro-pastoral livelihood zones, as compared to the normal of 5 – 6 km. The distances were below normal at (0 - 1.5Km) in Mixed farming and Irrigated farming livelihood zones. Waiting Time at the Source The waiting time at the common water source is stable and projected to reduce drastically in pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones as compared to the LTA if the current off-season rainfall will continue. In Mixed farming livelihood zone, the waiting time is between 1 – 2.5 minutes which is below normal. In pastoral and Agro-pastoral areas it was between 2.5 and 3.5 minutes, also below normal, which is attributed to the abundant water availability in most water sources. It was lowest in irrigated zone at 0-2 minutes. Cost of Water and Water Consumption Page 11 of 25 Water from open water source was free, while the cost of water from developed sources remained stable at Ksh 3 to 5 across all livelihood zones. Water vending reduced with few vendors selling water on average at Ksh 20 per 20 liters jerrican. Water consumption per person per day is above normal at 25-30 litres per person per day in Mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zone and 20 to 25 litres in Agro-pastoral and Pastoral zone compared to normal. Water quality surveillance is highly recommended in key hot spots areas of Irrigated, Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones in Chepkalacha, Sirata, Esageri, Kaptara, Amaya, Sintaan. Loboi, Kamar for water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhea and malaria as a result of water quality challenges. Table 13: Households Trekking Distance, Waiting Time and Water Consumption Livelihood Zone Return Distance to Cost of Water at Average Water Waiting Time at Water Water for Domestic Source (Ksh. Per 20 Consumption Source (M inutes) Use ( Km) litr es) (Litres/person/day) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming 0 – 1.5 1.5 - 3 3 – 5 3 – 5 1 – 2.5 3 - 5 25 - 30 15 - 20 Irrigated cropping 0 – 1.5 0.5 – 1.5 3 – 5 3 – 5 0 - 2 1 - 2 25 - 30 15 - 20 Agro-pastoral 3 – 3.5 3 - 4 3 – 5 3 – 5 2.5 3 - 5 20 - 25 12 - 15 Pastoral 3 – 4.5 4 – 5.5 3 – 5 3 – 5 3.5 3 - 5 20 - 25 12 - 15 3.2.5 Food Consumption Food Consumption Food consumption score is a proxy indicator for food security, that captures household diet and consumption frequency over a 52.0% seven-day period. Food consumption patterns varied 78.5% across the livelihood zones. The 86.7% 88.0% SMART Survey data revealed that the proportion of households that 18.0% had poor food consumption significantly reduced in Tiaty to 7.8 percent from 31 percent 13.7% 31.0% reported in last year SMART 11.4% 8.0% Survey. The shift is attributed to 7.8% 2.0% 4.0% milk availability and improved 2024 2023 2024 2023 household purchasing power. Poor FCS means households were Baringo North/South Tiaty not consuming staples and vegetables daily and never or very Poor Borderline Acceptable seldom are consuming protein rich food such as meat and dairy. Figure 6: FCS Currently, 78.5 – 87 percent of the households in the three sub-counties had acceptable food consumption patterns and 11 – 13.7 percent had borderline food consumption (Figure 6). Acceptable food consumption implies that household are consuming staples and vegetables daily, frequently accompanied by oil and pulses, and occasionally meat, fish and dairy. Page 12 of 25 Milk Consumption The current average milk consumption per household is lower than normal in some livelihood zones because farmers prefers to sell to get cash for supporting other basic requirements. Consumption was 1 litre per household in Agro-pastoral and Mixed farming against 1.5 – 2 litres normally. In Pastoral livelihood zones, consumption averaged 1.5 litres, which is higher than the normal 1 litre. Milk prices are currently lower than the long-term averages because of increased supply of milk in all the zones. Milk prices are currently ranging between Ksh 45 – 60 per litre compared to the normal range of Ksh 50 - 80. Most of the milk originates from Mixed farming zones of Mogotio and Eldama Ravine (Table 10). 3.2.6 Coping Strategy 20 17.6 The reduced Coping Strategies Index (rCSI) is an indicator used to compare 15 the hardship faced by households due to a shortage of food. The index measures I S 10.8 C the frequency and severity of food r 10 7.73 n consumption behaviors that households a 6.15 e M had to engage in response to food 5 shortage over the 7 days preceding the survey (VAM – WFP). SMART Survey 0 data collected in July 2024 showed that Tiaty Baringo North & South the food related coping mean index 2023 2024 declined to 7.7 in Tiaty from 17.6 and to 6.2 from 10.8 in Baringo North and Figure 7: Mean rCSI South sub-counties (Figure 7). Sentinel site data from NDMA revealed that about 65.2 percent of the households applied stress consumption coping strategies to overcome hardships faced due to shortage of food. Those that used crisis and above strategies were 17 percent and only 17.8 percent of the households reported not engaging in any food related coping strategies. Page 13 of 25 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and Mortality Patterns During the 2024 long rains season, no unusual diseases outbreak was reported across the county. However, common endemic illnesses that were reported for under five years and adult population include Upper Respiratory Tract Infection (URTI), malaria and diarrhoea across all livelihood zones. Diarrhoea cases were due to use of water from open sources and poor hygiene practices at household level, which was attributed by most households consuming untreated water. The URTI is lower in all age cohort in 2024 compared to previous year. Morbidity Under five Morbidity >5 YRS 160000 300000 140000 250000 120000 200000 100000 150000 80000 60000 100000 40000 50000 20000 0 0 2024 2023 2022 2021 2024 2023 2022 2021 Upper Respiratory Tract Infection (URTI) DISEASE Upper Respiratory Tract Infection (URTI) Diarrhoea DISEASE Diarrhoea DISEASE Malaria Malaria Figure 8: Morbidity Reported Cases 3.3.2 Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Vitamin A supplementation coverage for children aged 6 – 59 months reduced to 82 percent in 2024, compared 87 percent during the same period in 2023. The reduction is due to difficulties in accessing children in hard to reach areas because of insecurity. Also, the scaling down of outreach programs and displacement of households by floods hampered access to routine health services. Page 14 of 25 3.3.3 Nutritional Status and Dietary Diversity According to SMART survey conducted in July 2024 for Tiaty West and Tiaty East sub-counties, the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) for children under five reduced to 21 percent from 23.3 percent in July 2023. Baringo North and South counties had GAM rate of 7.9 percent compared to 8.2 percent 25.0 same period in 2023. The f o reduction in k 20.0 s i r GAM rates in t% Tiaty could a n n 15.0 be attributed e ri n do to l i hi t o 10.0 intervention c fi r t ou put in place n on l a 5.0 by Baringo i tM r o County p 0.0 o Government r Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec P with support LTA upper Limit 2024 lower limit from partners. Figure 9: Proportion of children U5 at Risk of Malnutrition However, GAM rates still remained high, indicating a Critical phase and Poor phase in Baringo North and Baringo South respectively. NDMA data for June 2024 indicated that approximately 20.3 percent of the children aged below five year are at risk of malnutrition based on Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) measurements. The current proportion of children at risk of malnutrition is 17 percent higher than long term average for the same time of year (Figure 9). 3.3.4 Sanitation and Hygiene The proportion of households accessing drinking water from improved sources stands at 35.3 percent for households in Baringo North and Baringo South sub-counties, which is a decline compared to 51.6 percent recorded during the same period in 2023. About 22.1 percent of the households in Tiaty access drinking water from safe/improved sources, a decrease from 31.4 percent in 2023. Majority of households reported not treating drinking water, with 76.9 percent in Baringo North and South and 98.2 percent in Tiaty. Latrine coverage was 64 percent in Baringo North and South while it was only 8.7 percent in Tiaty (SMART Survey, 2024). 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 14: Food Security Trends Indicator Short Rains Assessment, February Long Rains Assessment, Feb 2024 2024 Proportion of maize stocks held by 88 64 households (agro-pastoral) Livestock body condition Good Good - Fair Average Return trekking distance 0.5 - 4 0 – 4.3 (kilometres) Water consumption (litres per person 12 - 25 20 - 30 per day) Price of maize (per kg) 70 57 Distance to grazing 0.5 - 4 1 - 4 Terms of trade (pastoral zone) 57 72 Page 15 of 25 Indicator Short Rains Assessment, February Long Rains Assessment, Feb 2024 2024 Coping strategy index Food consumption score 3.5 Education Baringo county has 845 public ECDE centres with an enrolment of 42,832 children (22,322 boys and 20,504 girls), private ECDE centres are 107 with an enrolment of 8,557 (4,256 boys and 4,302 girls). There are 745 public primary schools with enrolment of 160,988 (82,496 boys and 78,292 girls) while private primary schools are 102 with an enrolment of 17,294 (8,605 boys and 8,689 girls). Public secondary schools are 189 with an enrolment of 56,838 (28,764 boys and 28,074 girls), 5 private secondary schools having 1,073 learners (538 boys and 535 girls), public junior secondary school are 536 with an enrolment of 29,765 (boys 15,320, girls 14,437) and private junior secondary schools are 39 with an enrolment of 2,030 (boys 1,036, girls 994). The total number of learners in our basic learning institutions are 217,278 learners (boys 111,931, girls 105,347). The schools are distributed as follows: Table 15: Schools/Institutions per Sub-county Sub-county ECDE ECDE Primary Primary Secondary Secondary JSS JSS Centres centres Schools Schools Schools Schools public private public private public private public private Tiaty East 106 2 62 2 8 0 31 1 Tiaty West 77 3 80 3 8 1 40 2 Baringo South 122 22 121 22 30 0 87 10 Baringo North 155 11 155 12 33 1 138 0 Mogotio 120 14 105 14 28 0 72 7 Baringo Central 119 18 128 18 39 3 78 8 Eldama Ravine 146 37 93 31 46 0 90 11 TOTAL 845 107 744 102 192 5 536 39 3.5.1 Enrolment There was an increment in population of 409 children in ECDE centers, 1,161 pupils in primary schools, 416 in JSS and 10 students in secondary schools. This was because of introduction and enhancement of school meals program in primary schools and ECDE centers. In secondary school, the increment is because of the 100 percent transition and the availability of bursaries. Cases of school dropouts were reported in the county. In ECDE centers, a total of 26 children (14 boys and 12 girls) dropped out due to nomadism/distance from school. In primary schools, a total of 58 student (32 boys and 26 girls) dropped out for various reasons; for boys, it was due to psychological trauma, child labour, insecurity/violence, nomadism and chronic illness; for girls, it was due to teenage pregnancies, child labour, nomadism, insecurity/violence, psychological trauma and illness. In secondary schools, the number of dropouts is 72 students (42 boys and 30 girls). The reason for dropout for boys is lack of fees, indulgence into boda boda business, insecurity, child labour, and truancy. For girls, the reasons were lack of fees, insecurity, teenage pregnancies, early marriages and insecurity. Page 16 of 25 3.5.2 Effects of 2024 long rains (FLOODING) in schools The rains affected access to educational institution across the county. Although some institution were not flooded, they were marooned by flood waters, rendering them inaccessible. For instance, at Kiserian school, the learners needed a boat and a foot bridge to access the school. In Sandai and Loboi, learners needed foot bridges for them to cross over the swollen lake Bogoria to reach their respective schools. In other cases, heavy rainfall resulted in rock falls and landslides that blocked access to schools, as was experienced in Eitui, Kaplel, Tabagon in Baringo Central and Sangarau in Baringo South and Kipng’orom in Mogotio. None of the schools was hosting any IDP camps during the season under review. 3.5.3 School Feeding In-kind meals were provided in Tiaty East, Tiaty West, Baringo North, Mogotio and Baringo South sub-counties targeting 146,574 learners. The county has a cash transfer or HGSMP for Baringo Central targeting 29 schools, with a combined 530 learners (boys-250, girls-.300). Koibatek and Baringo Central sub-counties benefited from none of these programs, implying that about 57,594 learners were not having access to feeding programs. A number of public ECDE pupils have a snack in the form of enriched porridge supported by the parents, while the county government has rolled out a pilot ECDE Meals programme covering over 6,000 children in 148 selected centres across the county. This will start in a later date when funds will be availed by the county government. Measures put in place for handling and storage of food include; all the cooks are required to have medical certificates, clean water is used for food preparation, presence of food stores which have been fumigated and stacks for food storage, and lastly cooks wear proper dressing (aprons and headgears). Table 16: School Feeding Program Under SMP Without SMP School Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total Pre school 16674 18504 35178 5106 4116 10022 Primary 47084 43246 90330 20855 20599 41454 JSS 10505 10561 21066 3097 3021 6118 146,574 57,594 3.5.4 Inter Sectoral links where available There were migrations and displacement of households in Tiaty, Baringo South and Baringo North because of insecurity, thus affecting school attendance. During this period, absenteeism tends to decrease in Pastoral, Agro-pastoral and Mixed farming zones due to improved water availability, though school-going children are asked by their parents to assist in the farms. In Mixed farming, not much change is expected. During the prolonged closure of schools’ cases of dropouts were high due to pregnancies and boys engaging in boda boda business. Some pupils/students became victims of retrogressive practices such as early and forced marriages, early pregnancies and engagement in ‘child labour-like’ activities. In some cases, boys of school going age were involved in stock theft raids contributing to insecurity. 4.0 Food Security Prognosis 4.1 Prognosis Assumptions The county director of meteorology indicated that several parts of the county will receive off season rains through end of September 2024. • Rangeland resources are projected to improve further across the livelihood zones and likely to last until the onset of the 2024 short rains seasons expected in October 2024. Page 17 of 25 • Livestock body condition is anticipated to be good through end of the year hence likely to sustain above average selling prices in the markets. • The expected 2024 long rains harvest is likely to support gradual decline in prices of food commodities in the markets. • Water sources will likely recharge, potentially reducing the normal trekking distances for both households and livestock to water points. 4.2 Food Security Outlook for August – October 2024 Food consumption patterns are likely be stabilize in the next three months across the livelihood zones. There is a likelihood of reduction in the proportion of household engaged in destructive coping strategies. The nutrition status for children under five is projected to either remain stable or decrease, as milk production is anticipated to increase due to ongoing kidding and calving. 4.3 Food Security Outlook for November 2023 – January 2024 The expected 2024 short rains season is likely to rejuvenate the rangeland resources, subsequently triggering positive change in most of the food security outcome indicators. Food consumption patterns will likely improve further owing to projected crop harvests and milk availability. Improvements in livestock health and body conditions will result in seasonal increase in livestock prices hence further boosting household income. Improved livestock productivity will likely result in improved nutritional status for children under five. The enhanced situation is expected to drive improvement in food consumption, reduction in negative coping mechanism thus likelihood of improved nutritional status of children under five and other family members. 5.0 Conclusion and Interventions 5.1 Conclusion 5.1.1 Phase classification The overall indicative phase classification for the county is Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 5.1.2 Summary of Findings The county received above average rainfall of about 126 – 140 percent of normal. Recurring incidences of cattle rustling and bandit attacks were experienced in Saimo Soi, Bartabwa wars in Baringo North sub-county, Mukutani and Mochongoi wards in Baringo South and along the borders of Baringo with Elgeyo Marakwet; Tiaty West and Turkana East sub-counties, Tiaty East and Samburu West sub-counties. Around 2,352 households were affected by the flooding with approximately 1,955 households completely displaced, 1,530 in camps and 425 integrated households. A total of 100 primary schools, 29 junior schools and 10 secondary schools have been affected. Provision of health services were disrupted in Mukutani, Ilchamus and Mochongoi wards. Around 42 percent of the planted land has been affected by Fall army worm. Maize stocks held by all actor in the county is currently lower than the long-term average by 36 percent. Farmers have maize stock which are 49 percent below the long-term average. Forage condition was good across the livelihood zones. A total 1,684,000 bales of hay are currently being held in the 93 hay stores against a total storage capacity of 2,970,000 bales for the 93 stores. Livestock body condition for all species was ranging between good to fair across the livelihood zones. According to July 2024 SMART Survey, proportion of 7.8 percent of households had poor food consumption in Tiaty and 78.5 – 87 percent of the households in the three sub-counties had acceptable food consumption patterns and 11 – 13.7 percent had borderline food consumption. Global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates for children under five reduced to 21 percent from 23.3 percent in July Page 18 of 25 2023. Baringo North and South counties had GAM rate of 7.9 percent compared to 8.2 percent same period in 2023. 5.1.3 Sub-County Ranking Table 17: Sub-county Ranking Sub-county Rank Main food security threat/Contributing factors Hotspot wards (Worst to best) Tiaty East 1 • Poor pastures • Livestock diseases • Tirioko • Malnutrition • Livestock migration • Ribkwo • Insecurity • Disruption of Markets • Floods • Poor rainfall performance Tiaty West 2 • Insecurity • Livestock migration • Silale • Malnutrition • Poor rainfall performance • Tangulbei Korossi • Disruption of Markets Baringo North 3 • Livestock diseases • Disruption of Markets • Saimo Soi • Insecurity • Crop pests and diseases • Malnutrition Baringo South 4 • Floods • Livestock diseases • Mukutani • Insecurity • Livestock migration • Malnutrition Mogotio 5 • Poor rainfall performance in some • Livestock diseases • Emining parts of Kamar • Crop pests and diseases • Malnutrition Baringo Central 6 • Good rainfall performance • Crop pests and diseases Eldama Ravine 7 • Good rainfall performance • • Crop pests and diseases 5.2 Ongoing Interventions 5.2.1 Food interventions 5.2.2 Non-food interventions Sub-county Ward Intervention No. of Implementer Impacts in Cost Time benefic s terms of food (Ksh.) Frame iaries security Agriculture All sub- Saimo Soi, Resilient building 9,725 County Restoration and 58.4 M June – counties Bartabwa program to Government rehabilitation of Dec Sacho, , households of Baringo, livelihoods 2024 Churo/Amaya, ELRP destroyed by DL Mochongoi, Kolowa, Ilchamus and Kisanana Baringo All wards Affruitation Program 3,000 GOk Increased area 3.2 M 2024 Central under fruits cover for environmental conservation and food security Page 19 of 25 All sub- Marigat, ogotio, Promotion of farmer 25 County Improve access to 10 M 2023 - counties Kabarnet, service centres Government inputs by farmers 2024 Kabartonjo, and WFP and promote Eldama Ravine entrepreneurship All sub- All wards Nutrition Sensitive 25,000 WFP, HA, Increased 300 M 2020 - counties and Food County household food & 2024 Utilization initiatives Government nutrition security of Baringo, DRLSP, KCSAP, National Government Livestock Baringo All wards Provision of pasture 10,000 BCG/Partners Increased feeds 10 M August South, ogotio, certified seeds for livestock for 2 024 Eldama increased Zavine, production Baringo Central, Baringo North & Tiaty All sub- Apiculture 20 County Increased honey 10 M August counties promotion Groups Government, production 2024 BCG Water Health and Nutrition All health Vitamin A 102,20 MOH, Improved body 7 M Twice facilities. Supplementation 0 UNICEF, immunity a year Selected ECDs Hellen Keller, ChildFund All Health Zinc 77,000 County 0.9 M Routine Facilities supplementation Government Education Page 20 of 25 5.3 Recommended Interventions 5.3.1 Food Interventions Table 18: Proportion of Population in Need of Assistance Sub-county 2023 LRA Food Population Estimated Proportion in Need of Immediate Security Rank Food Assistance (percent) Per Sub-county (Worst to Best) 2023 SRA 2024 LRA Tiaty East 1 79,923 (19,980) 25% (11,980)15% Tiaty West 2 73,424 (18,356) 25% (11,014) 15% Baringo North 3 104,871 (12,584) 12% (10,487) 10% Baringo South 4 90,104 10,000 (11%) 4,500 (5%) Mogotio 5 91,104 10,000 (11%) (0)0% Baringo Central 6 96,951 (2,908)3% (0)0% Eldama Ravine 7 129,535 (2950)2% (0)0% Total population in need of food assistance 37,980 5.3.2 Non-food interventions Sub-county Ward Intervention No. of Proposed Required Available Time beneficiaries Implementers Resources Resources F rame Agriculture All sub- All 1. Purchase and 3000 National 40 M Staff 2024 - counties distribution of Government, 2025 Traditional County high value Government crops. and FAO, 2. Construction of WFP, ELRP, farm ponds 3. Supply of drip kits and multi- storey gardens and vegetable seeds ALL Crops Post-harvest 5000 National 10 M Staff 2024 - management Government, 2025 • Purchase and County distribution of Government, hermetic bags and • Purchase and development distribution of partners solar driers Livestock Baringo Vaccination against 100,000 cattle BCG, FAO, 9 M Technical Dec North , LSD, CCPP, and PPR 270,000 goats SHA Staff 2024 Mogotio, Deworming 50,000 sheep Tiaty Page 21 of 25 Baringo Establishment of 12 4,500 HHs MoALF, 90 M Land Aug – North, Tiaty strategic livestock feed SHA, BCG, Dec East & reserves NDMA, & 2024 West, other Partners Mogotio, Baringo South Tiaty West Loruk, Renovation/construction 13,000 HHs BCG, County 50 M Land, Aug – & East Chura, of livestock Auction Government Staff Dec Nginyang, yards 2024 Kolloa All sub- Provision of certified 5,000 HHs BCG, County 5 M Land, Aug – counties pasture seeds Government Staff Dec 2024 Water All sub- All wards Promotion of roof water counties harvesting structures Health and Nutrition All sub- 150 Intensify mass screening Under-fives 1.2 M Staff and July – counties Health and referrals from hotspot Tools Dec 2024 Facilities areas All sub- County Deworming 83,066 BCG – MOH 1.66 M Staffs Aug – counties wide children (1 – 5 Dec 2024 Years) Education Page 22 of 25 - Page 21