February 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS January is normally a dry month across the Generally the October to December rainy season has arid and semi arid (ASAL) counties. This been favourable to crop production and the condition of year, however, the 2019 October-November- crops especially in the marginal agricultural counties is December (OND) short rains season which promising hence households expect to get a good usually terminates in December extended to harvest. In parts of the ASAL counties, farmers have January 2020. As a result, by the end of the already harvested beans, green grams and cowpeas month most ASAL counties had received while harvesting of maize, sorghum and millet was cumulative rainfall that was above their ongoing. January long term average. The nutrition status of children in most counties Return distances to water for households improved this month with 18 counties now on a stable have generally reduced in all the 23 ASAL or improving trend. This improvement was attributed to counties. Similarly, in nearly all ASAL higher milk consumption in pastoral counties and counties access to water for livestock is improved dietary diversity due to availability of green currently below the seasonal average. vegetables and pulses in the marginal agricultural Early onset of the October-November- December (OND) 2019 seasonal rainfall Following the good rains received since October 2019, coupled with the above normal rainfall environmental indicators in most ASAL counties have performance during the months of October to remained within the seasonal ranges and therefore, January has positively impacted on the currently all counties are categorized in the normal pasture and browse condition. This has drought phase, with the trend improving in 6 counties reduced distances covered between water and remaining stable in 17 counties. points and grazing fields which has resulted to improvement in overall livestock productivity including substantial increase in milk production. Drought phase classification, January 2020 Makueni, Mandera Lamu, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North) 1.0. Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall During the October-November-December (OND) short rains season, most arid and semi arid (ASAL) counties recorded enhanced rainfall that was also fairly distributed both in time and space. Normally, January is a dry month but in 2020 most ASAL counties received rainfall that was above their January long term average. For instance, counties such as: Garissa, Kajiado, Embu, Narok, Taita Taveta, Makueni and Kilifi received rainfall that exceeded 125 percent of their long term mean for January. Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in late December 2019 with that in late January 2020. The good performance of the October-November-December (OND) 2019 seasonal rainfall is evident as it has led to significant rejuvenation of vegetation in the entire ASAL region. Therefore, as at end of January 2020 all arid and semi-arid counties were categorized in the above normal vegetation greenness band which is similar to the situation reported last month. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), December 2019 and January 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) December 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) January 2020 Water sources The rainfall has been sufficient to recharge most of the open water sources, improving the quantity and quality of water and reducing distances and waiting time. For example, in Baringo County most water pans and dams are holding water amounts of between 70 and 80 percent of their full capacity, while in Marsabit 80 percent of all open water sources are fully recharged and in Kitui County pans and dams have also impounded water to above normal levels. In most ASAL counties, majority of the main water sources are likely to last for more than three months. Livestock production The October-November-December rains have positively impacted on the pasture and browse condition. This has reduced distances covered between water points and grazing fields which has resulted to improvement in overall livestock productivity including substantial increase in milk production. Pasture and browse condition Condition of pasture and browse in January in almost all the arid and semi-arid counties was good as depicted in Table 1. The observed state of pasture and browse in terms of both quantity and quality was above that normally experienced at such a time of the year in most ASAL areas and was attributed to the enhanced rainfall received in during the October to December rainfall season. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, January 2020 Pasture Browse Turkana Kwale Laikipia Mandera Turkana Meru Tana River Baringo Garissa Tana River Baringo Embu Isiolo Kajiado Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Lamu Laikipia Kwale Mandera Nyeri Makueni Wajir Marsabit Narok Marsabit Narok Samburu Meru Taita Taveta Nyeri Taita Taveta Embu Samburu Kitui West Pokot Wajir West Pokot Lamu Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Livestock body condition As presented in Table 2, livestock body condition has continued on an improving trend which is largely attributed to the increased availability of forage and water. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, January 2020 Cattle Goats Laikipia Turkana Kwale Laikipia Turkana Embu Lamu Marsabit Narok Tana River Baringo Tharaka Mandera Samburu Meru Lamu Garissa Isiolo Tana River Taita Taveta Embu Kajiado Kilifi Baringo Garissa Mandera Kwale Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Wajir Kilifi Kitui Marsabit Narok Makueni Nyeri Taita Taveta Nyeri West Pokot Wajir Samburu Kitui Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Meru Milk production Table 3 illustrates the trend in milk production in the 23 ASAL counties. Across the ASAL areas improvement in forage and water availability has led to enhanced livestock body condition consequently resulting to increased productivity. In Isiolo County, for example, the amount of milk produced per day per household increased by 32 percent to 3.7 litres in January from 2.8 litres in December. Likewise in Kajiado, average milk production per household per day rose by 25 percent from 2.4 litres in December to 3 litres in January while in Kilifi, Makueni, Kitui, Tana River and Narok average milk production increased by 25, 23, 18, 14 and 12 percent respectively. However, milk production fell in a few counties such as Turkana, Kwale, Meru and Taita Taveta. For instance, in Turkana, average milk production per household per day reduced by 10 percent from 2.1 litres in December to 1.9 litres in January. All the same, the amount of milk produced during the month under analysis was above the five-year average by 12 percent which was accredited to availability of browse and pasture that was also easily accessible to livestock coupled with the good calving rate recorded in January. Table 3.0: Milk production, January 2020 Milk Garissa Kajiado Baringo Isiolo Baringo Kwale Production Isiolo Kilifi Embu Kajiado Marsabit Meru Laikipia Kwale Kitui Kilifi Embu Taita Taveta Lamu Narok Makueni Kitui Garissa Turkana Mandera Samburu Meru Laikipia Nyeri Marsabit Taita Taveta Lamu Wajir Nyeri Tana River Makueni West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Mandera Turkana Narok Wajir Samburu West Pokot Tana River Cattle prices As shown Table 4, enhanced market prices continued to be observed in cattle prices driven by improved livestock body condition as a result of good availability of forage and water. For example, in Samburu County the current average price for cattle was above the 2016 - 2018 average by 24 percent, similar to Mandera where average cattle prices increased by 13 percent to Kshs 20,500 in January from Kshs 18,100 in December. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, January 2020 Cattle Marsabit Meru Kitui Embu Baringo Isiolo Marsabit Prices Taita Taveta Nyeri Turkana Tana River Embu Kajiado Turkana Laikipia Wajir Isiolo Kitui Wajir West Pokot Lamu Kilifi Lamu Baringo Isiolo Laikipia Makueni Kajiado Kilifi Mandera Narok Mandera Makueni Meru Nyeri Samburu Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River West Pokot Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trend in goat prices in January in the 23 ASAL counties. During the month under review goat prices in nealy all ASAL counties were above average or close to LTA. The above average prices for goats was attributed to their good body condition. For example, in Kajiado County the average price of a two-year old goat in January was Kshs 4,660 which was 36 percent above the three-year average price of Kshs 3,430. Table 5.0: Goat prices, January 2020 Goat Turkana Kwale Marsabit Tana River Tana River Baringo Kitui Prices Samburu Nyeri Mandera Meru Turkana Kwale Marsabit Laikipia Wajir Kitui Embu Meru Nyeri Taita Taveta Garissa Taita Taveta West Pokot Lamu Wajir Mandera West Pokot Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kilifi Laikipia Garissa Makueni Tharaka Lamu Narok Embu Makueni Tharaka Nithi Narok Samburu Generally the October to December rainy season has been favourable to crop production and the condition of crops especially in the marginal agricultural counties is promising hence households expect to get a good harvest. For instance, in Embu (Mbeere) farmers have already harvested beans, green grams and cowpeas while harvesting of maize, sorghum and millet was ongoing. In Kitui crops are in good condition and harvesting of maize, cowpeas, beans, pigeon peas and green grams has started. Similarly in Kwale, Makueni and Tharaka maize, cowpeas, beans, pigeon peas and green grams were at the physiological maturity stage and harvesting was ongoing. In January 2020, Desert Locust infestations were reported in a number of the arid and semi-arid counties including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa, Samburu, Baringo, Meru, Laikipia, Embu, Kitui and Tharaka Nithi. The infestation poses a substantial risk to food security and livelihoods of the ASAL communities who are mainly pastoralists and stallholder farmers. Maize prices Maize price trends in the ASAL counties are demonstrated in Table 6. In close to 70 percent of the counties, maize prices recorded in January were higher than usual compared with the 2016 - 2018 average. The high average maize price is attributed to poor crop harvest in the previous season which has led to limited maize stocks at household level and consequently creating a high demand of the maize in the local markets. Table 6.0: Maize prices, January 2020 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Maize Mandera Garissa Baringo Kwale Embu Baringo Kilifi Kajiado Prices Isiolo Kilifi Kajiado Garissa Laikipia Makueni Lamu Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Isiolo Mandera Samburu Turkana Tharaka Makueni Narok Kitui Marsabit Meru Wajir Samburu Lamu Nyeri Kwale Tana River Narok Taita Taveta Embu Turkana Nyeri West Pokot Tana River Meru Wajir Tharaka Taita Taveta West Pokot Access to water Return distances to water for both households and livestock was largely favourable as most parts of the ASAL region continued to receive significant amounts of rainfall. For instance, in Garissa, the average return distance from household to water sources reduced from 4.2 km in December to 3.2 km in January, while in Narok the average distance for households declined by 10 percent from 1.7 to 1.5 km. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 7. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, January 2020 Distance from Kwale Taita Baringo, Isiolo, Samburu Taita Taveta Kitui, Kwale, households to Taveta Kitui, Samburu, Narok West Pokot Embu (Mbeere), main water Laikipia, Lamu, Garissa Nyeri (Kieni) Kilifi, Laikipia, sources Tana River, Kajiado Makueni, Meru Garissa, Makueni, (Meru North), Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Tharaka West Pokot, Meru Nithi (Tharaka), (Meru North), Tana River, Isiolo, Narok, Kajiado, Marsabit, Kilifi, Nyeri Turkana, Baringo, (Kieni), Turkana, Lamu, Mandera Wajir, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Embu (Mbeere) Table 8 shows the trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water. Average return distances to water for livestock in many areas reduced in January as a result of the off season rains received during the month. In most ASAL counties access to water for livestock was below the seasonal average. For example, compared to the long term average trekking distance for the month of January the current average distance for livestock in Marsabit was shorter by 62 percent. Also in Kajiado County, the average trekking distance to water points for livestock of 4.6 km was 43 percent shorter than the normal distance of 8 km. Table 8.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, January 2020 Distance from Kwale Meru Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Garissa Baringo Embu, Isiolo, livestock Kitui, Laikipia, Narok Kajiado Kitui, Lamu, grazing areas Lamu, Makueni, Taita Taveta Kilifi Makueni, to main water Marsabit, Nyeri, Laikipia Mandera, sources Narok, Samburu, Makueni Marsabit, Taita Taveta, Tana Samburu Meru, Narok, River, Turkana, Turkana Nyeri, Tana Wajir, West Pokot, West Pokot River , Wajir Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Mandera, Terms of trade In almost 80 percent of the ASAL counties the terms of trade (ToT) improved or remained stable in January 2020. An indication that households could obtain more kilogrammes of maize from the sale of a goat than they did during the previous month The lagest improvements were in Taita Taveta, Nyeri and Tharaka, where terms of trade appreciated by 61, 32 and 26 percent respectively. In 17 counties, the current ToT were above or close to the long term average for the month implying a favourable situation for livestock producers. In most counties the improvement in ToT is generally a reflection of rising goat prices. Table 9 summarizes the movements of ToT on the previous month and the trend. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, January 2020 Terms of trade Baringo, Embu, Kwale Kilifi Embu Baringo, Wajir, Isiolo (ToT) Garissa, Isiolo, Samburu Kitui Garissa Kajiado, Kilifi, Lamu Kajiado, Laikipia, Taita Taveta Lamu Kitui Laikipia , Meru Marsabit Mandera, Marsabit Tharaka Makueni Kwale Narok, Turkana Samburu Narok, Nyeri, Meru Mandera West Pokot Turkana, Wajir, Nyeri Tana River Tana River Taita Taveta West Pokot Tharaka Nithi The bulletins monitor the proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition, determined by a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurement. The nutrition status of children in most counties improved this month with 18 counties now on a stable or improving trend. This improvement was attributed to higher milk consumption in pastoral counties and improved dietary diversity due to availability of green vegetables and pulses in the marginal agricultural counties. Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), January 2020 MUAC Makueni Mandera Baringo, Embu, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Wajir Kilifi Lamu Kitui Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Tharaka Makueni Samburu Kajiado Kwale, Laikipia, Marsabit, Narok, Marsabit Samburu Tana River Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Laikipia Kilifi Tharaka Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Turkana, West Pokot Lamu Baringo Meru Turkana, Wajir, West Kajiado Pokot Kitui 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. Following the good rains received since October 2019, environmental indicators in most ASAL counties have remained within the seasonal ranges and therefore, currently all counties are categorized in the normal drought phase, with the trend improving in 6 counties and remaining stable in 17 counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, January 2020 Makueni, Mandera Lamu, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North) 2 Projected food security situation The rains received during the period from October to January is likely to sustain good conditions of pasture and browse which in turn is expected to maintain good body condition for livestock thus improved productivity. Livestock body condition is expected to remain good to fair in the next three months due to the current good quantity and quality of browse and pasture in nearly all ASAL counties. Market prices both for livestock and food commodities are likely to remain stable which will most probably translate to favourable terms of trade for livestock keepers. Owing to the expected good livestock body condition and stable calving rates, households will be able to produce and consume more milk which is likely to keep malnutrition rates in children at low levels. Desert locust infestation which is currently being experienced in the ASAL areas is likely to result in damage to browse and pasture and might also impact negatively on the late planted crops. Although, so far the effects of the desert locust invasion on both livestock and crop production has been minimal. 3 Recommendations Agriculture Considering the ongoing desert locust infestation, both county and national governments should enhance measures to control the pest. Promotion of rain water harvesting technologies for crop production. Provision of farm inputs such as subsidized fertilizer and certified seeds in preparation for the MAM season Promotion of appropriate post-harvest management practices. Livestock Promote pasture conservation including deferred grazing management in order to avoid quick destruction and depletion of the available pasture hence enable pastoralists to use it for a longer period. Conduct livestock vaccination campaigns and other disease control interventions Water Rehabilitation of water catchments Repair and desilting of dams and water pans Intensify health promotion campaigns Community sensitization on treatment of drinking water as most households are accessing water from unprotected sources. Annex 1.0 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th January 2020 BARINGO County 86.29 92.75 Following some rains received in October, November, December and January the Central 83.91 84.31 vegetation greenness in all sub-counties is above normal. Eldama 75.15 74.7 Mogotio 91.3 95.62 North 80.15 84.29 South 86.31 91.12 Tiaty 89.9 100.86 MANDERA County 90.4 91.27 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Banissa 86.89 91.19 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. M East 85.37 82.88 Lafey 90.56 91.41 M North 92.73 98.51 M South 91.35 90.27 M West 90.42 86.97 TURKANA County 90.48 92.39 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. T Central 91.13 99.24 T. East 71.2 78.36 T. Loima 108.15 119.49 T. North 85.7 81.83 T. South 84.41 101.46 T. West 102.6 91.49 MARSABIT County 82.13 88.3 T he vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Laisaimis 86.43 92.17 Moyale 89.84 91.47 N. Horr 76.71 84.73 Saku 101.15 99.15 WAJIR County 78.82 83.15 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. W East 94.32 93.85 W.Eldas 75.18 71.64 W. North 95.64 92.8 W. South 68.44 77.63 W.Tarbaj 92.03 86.49 W West 67.41 86.52 SAMBURU County 74.9 85.6 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. S East 72.4 81.93 S. North 76.79 88.1 S. West 78.64 91.79 COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 Colour VCI values Drought Category as at 30th month as (3-month) Dec at 27th 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 2019 Jan 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 2020 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit GARISSA County 69.73 74.31 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 63.11 75.61 Daadab 57.85 66.33 Fafi 75.85 72.39 Ijara 83.06 86.57 Lagdera 55.32 73.02 Dujis 72.52 60.7 ISIOLO County 70.41 84.17 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation I. North 73.87 85.68 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. I. South 65.11 81.85 TANA County 81.27 89.64 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. RIVER Bura 65.61 73.39 Galole 82.24 95 Garsen 93.95 100.09 KAJIADO County 81.8 90.72 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. K. Central 76.63 85.6 K. East 85.33 85.94 K. North 63.43 71.56 K. South 93.99 97.92 K. West 73.72 90.28 LAIKIPIA County 80.93 87 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation L. East 84.28 87.08 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. L. North 81.05 89.06 L. West 79.11 83.11 THARAKA County 63.02 70.52 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. NITHI Chuka 69.96 70.25 Maara 62.23 64.86 Tharaka 60.65 72.43 WEST County 84.79 89.8 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. POKOT Kacheliba 85.28 90.72 Kapenguria 88.1 92.23 Pokot South 84.09 89.57 Sigor 81.52 86.23 EMBU County 77.89 78.74 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Manyatta 56.73 68.91 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Mbeere North 77.31 78.62 Mbeere South 87.25 84.22 Runyenjes 68.24 69.58 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT County 71.29 80.84 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. KITUI Kitui Central 88.81 84.75 Kitui East 72 82.95 Mwingi Central 78.45 83.96 Mwingi North 67.26 77.28 Mwingi West 89.18 85.2 Kitui Rural 90.11 85.93 Kitui South 64 78.72 Kitui West 92.81 86.42 County 91.94 86.62 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. MAKUENI Kaiti 100.66 96.52 Kibwezi East 75.45 76.03 Kibwezi West 89.91 83.76 Kilome 105.15 98.38 Makueni 106.77 94.46 Mbooni 97.03 91.28 County 74.07 77.97 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Buuri 70.34 74.71 Central Imenti 68.34 72.23 Igembe Central 81.56 85.45 Igembe North 81.39 86.14 Igembe South 80.34 84.31 North Imenti 68.28 65.63 South Imenti 62.1 65.42 Tigania East 72.3 77.95 Tigania West 74.78 76.5 County 70 73.13 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. NYERI Kieni 71.45 72.46 Mathira 61.1 58.14 Mukurweini 75.5 88.36 Town 82.85 90.02 Othaya 67.96 79.05 Tetu 65.75 73.9 County 82.73 86.32 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation KILIFI Ganze 83.69 85.55 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kaloleni 82.85 85.52 Magarini 85.91 87.66 Malindi 75.27 81.07 Kilifi-North 77.34 82.25 Rabai 78.33 85.77 Kilifi-South 81.52 86.2 KWALE County 85.02 89.34 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kinango 86.49 89.67 Lungalunga 88.08 91.33 Matuga 77.03 86.23 Msambweni 73.21 83.7 LAMU County 85.53 87.73 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 80.42 84.72 Lamu West 88.48 89.47 TAITA County 98.4 93.74 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. TAVETA Mwatate 97.07 98.28 Taveta 107.18 96.23 Voi 94.66 91.19 Wundanyi 103.52 95.92 County 72.12 81.27 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Narok-East 84.15 91 NAROK Emurua Dikirr 86.96 89.49 Kilgoris 68.8 77.31 Narok-North 63.37 74.11 Narok-South 73.69 81.73 Narok-West 70.94 81.92 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification