NATIONAL DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN JANUARY 2023 1.0 DROUGHT SITUATION OVERVIEW The drought situation remains critical in 22 of the 23 ASAL counties due to the late onset and poor performance of the much-anticipated October to December 2022 short rains, coupled with four previous consecutive failed rainfall seasons. Currently, nine arid and semi-arid (ASAL) counties namely; Kilifi, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Isiolo, Kitui and Kajiado are in Alarm drought phase while 13 counties are in Alert drought phase. These include Garissa, Lamu, Narok, Tana River, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Baringo, Laikipia, Meru, Taita Taveta, West Pokot, Nyeri and Kwale. Only Embu county is currently classified in Normal drought phase. Taita Taveta, Kwale, Garissa and Tana River improved from Alarm to Alert phase due to light showers received during the last week of December. Conversely, the drought situation in Baringo and West Pokot counties deteriorated from Normal to Alert drought phase. High rates of children at risk of malnutrition were noted in Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Baringo and Isiolo counties. This is mostly attributed to the continued decrease in milk production and consumption at household level, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. The long rains assessment conducted in July 2022 had projected that 4.35 million people would require relief assistance Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification December 2022 by December. A multi-agency assessment of the 2022 short rains season is ongoing to ascertain its impact on food security. The assessment team comprises representatives from Government departments, UN agencies and NGOs. 1.1 DROUGHT OBSERVED INDICATORS 1.1.1 December Rainfall Performance Analysis of the December 2022 rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs experienced depressed rainfall. The Pastoral North East, South East Marginal Agriculture, Coast Marginal Agriculture and Pastoral North West livelihood clusters received between 0 to 75 of the December Long Term Mean (LTM). The Pastoral North East counties including Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received between 50 to 75 of the December LTM. However, parts of Garissa and Tana River counties received very minimal rainfall - 10mm. including Tharaka Nithi Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received depressed rainfall, with some parts recording between 26mm to 75 mm of rainfall. The coastal marginal agriculture counties - Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu - received inadequate rainfall. The agropastoral cluster including Baringo, Narok and Figure 2: December 2022 Rainfall Performance West Pokot, received notable amount of rainfall between 76mm to 125mm of rainfall. 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for January 2023 As illustrated in Figure 3, the rainfall outlook for January forecasts occassional rainfall in lower parts of the ASALs are, especially coastal marginal agrilture areas including Kilifi, Lamu, Taita Taveta and Kwale counties. including Kitui, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi and Meru counties are forecasted to receive light showers while agropastoral counties of Narok and Kajiado are forecasted to receive occassional rainfall. The upper parts of the ASALs, including Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Figure 3: January 2023 rainfall forecast. Garissa) and Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are expected to experience main ly sunny and dry conditions. 1.2 VEGETATION CONDITION December 2022 recorded alarming deterioration in vegetation condition across ASAL counties compared to the previous month (November 2022). The deterioration is attributed to poor performance of the October to December short rains. Figure 4 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in December 2021 and December 2022. Figure 4: Comparison of Vegetation Condition (VCI) in December 2021 and December 2022. Three counties - Marsabit, Wajir and Isiolo - recorded extreme vegetation deficit while three others - Mandera, Samburu and Kwale recorded severe deficit. 12 counties including Turkana, Garissa, Kajiado, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Kitui, Meru, Nyeri, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Tana River have moderate vegetation deficit, hence need for close monitoring and contingency planning. Five counties - Baringo, Embu, Makueni, Lamu and Narok - recorded Normal vegetation greenness. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of December 2022 is provided in Table 13 while Table 1 shows the situation in each county disaggregated by sub-county. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index in December 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No.) Extreme (3) (17) Marsabit Mandera (East, South) Wajir Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, Saku, North Horr) Isiolo Wajir (East, Eldas, North, South, Tarbaj, West) Garissa (Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South) Nyeri (Township), Kilifi (South) Severe (3) (17) vegetation Mandera Mandera (Banissa, Lafey, North, West) deficit Samburu Samburu (East) Kwale Garissa (Balambala, Dujis) Kajiado (Central, North) Laikipia (North) West Pokot (Kacheliba) Nyeri (Mathira, Mukurweini) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Rabai) Kwale (Kinango) Moderate (12) (41) vegetation Turkana Baringo (Tiaty) deficit Garissa Turkana (East, Loima, North, South, West) Kajiado Samburu (North, West) Laikipia Garissa (Daadab) Tharaka Nithi Tana River (Bura, Galole) West Pokot Kajiado (East, South, West) Kitui Laikipia (East,) Meru Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Nyeri West Pokot (Sigor) Kilifi Kitui (East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North) Taita Taveta Makueni (Kilome) Tana River Meru (Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti) Nyeri (Kieni, Othaya, Tetu) Kilifi (Magarini, Malindi, Kilifi North) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Narok (East, South) Normal (5) (34) vegetation Baringo Baringo (Eldama, Mogotio, North, South) greenness Embu Turkana (Central) Makueni Garissa (Fafi, Ijara) Lamu Tana River (Garsen) Narok Laikipia (West) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South) Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) Kitui (Central, Mwingi West, Rural, South, West) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Mbooni) Meru (Buuri, Tigania East, Tigania West) Kwale (Msambweni) Lamu (East, West) Narok (North, West) Vegetation (5) greenness Baringo (Central) Above normal Embu (Mbeere North) Makueni (Makueni) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris) 1.3 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most ASAL counties remained poor as shown in Table 2. The condition was below normal, with no improvement realised when compared with the previous month. The pasture and browse is not expected to last long due to high concentration of livestock in grazing areas. The condition of pasture and browse deteriorated to poor in Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot, Kajiado and Kwale counties. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition in December 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Kilifi Lamu Isiolo Baringo Makueni Garissa Kitui Makueni Mandera Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Marsabit Kilifi Mandera Meru Narok Kitui Marsabit Samburu Turkana Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Wajir Lamu Turkana Tana River Meru Wajir Embu Samburu West Pokot Nyeri Taita Taveta Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Tana River Kwale West Pokot Kajiado Kwale 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Livestock body condition ranged from poor to fair in most ASAL counties except Lamu, Makueni and Taita Taveta counties which reported good body condition for cattle as shown in Table 3. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal compared to similar periods during a normal year. Table 3: Livestock body condition in December 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Lamu Isiolo Baringo Lamu Isiolo Kilifi Makueni Mandera Garissa Taita Taveta Mandera Kitui Marsabit Kilifi Makueni Marsabit Laikipia Turkana Kitui Turkana Meru Wajir Laikipia Wajir Narok Meru Kajiado Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Samburu Tana River Tana River West Pokot West Pokot Embu Embu Kwale Kajiado Nyeri Kwale 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month of December remained stable in most of the counties compared to November. Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi showed an improving milk production trend. The current milk production status in 21 of the 23 counties is below average compared to normal years. Table 4: Milk production trends in December 2022 Milk Tharaka Garissa Baringo Garissa Makueni Baringo production Nithi Embu Isiolo Marsabit Mandera Isiolo Kajiado Taita Taveta Meru Kajiado Kilifi Wajir Narok Kilifi Kitui Embu West Pokot Kitui Kwale Laikipia Lamu Lamu Nyeri Mandera Tana River Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Narok NB: Turkana had zero readings. 1.3.4 Cattle prices Cattle prices in majority of the counties remained stable in December compared to the previous month, with majority of the counties continuing to record below normal prices while four counties reported a worsening trend. Isiolo, Kwale, Lamu, and Mandera counties reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5: Cattle prices in December 2022 Cattle Tana River West Baringo Baringo Garissa Isiolo prices Pokot Isiolo Embu Kilifi Kwale Lamu Kajiado Kajiado Marsabit Lamu Embu Kilifi Kitui Narok Mandera Garissa Kwale Laikipia Taita Taveta Kitui Laikipia Makueni Turkana Makueni Meru Wajir Meru Tana River Narok Tharaka Nyeri Nithi Samburu West Pokot 1.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in ASAL counties were generally poor, with most ASAL counties recording below long term average prices. However, most counties recorded an improving trend compared to November as result of regeneration of pasture and browse as illustrated in Table 6. Table 6: Goat prices in December 2022 Goat Kajiado Embu Baringo Embu Turkana Kwale prices Kilifi Kitui Garissa Isiolo Wajir Laikipia Kwale Isiolo Kajiado Narok Lamu Narok Mandera Kilifi Mandera Makueni West Pokot Marsabit Kitui Marsabit Samburu Meru Laikipia Garissa Tana River Nyeri Lamu Baringo Taita Taveta Makueni Tharaka Nithi Meru Turkana Nyeri Wajir Samburu Tharaka 1.4 CROP PRODUCTION Coast Marginal Agriculture counties: The crop condition in Kilifi County remained poor due to moisture stress, with minimal to no harvest expected as most of the crop is wilting coupled with Fall Army Warm infestation. There was also delayed and poor temporal rainfall distribution, which is likely to lead to crop failure. Farmers in some areas of Kwale County were weeding in December having planted earlier and received some rains. However, those in the livestock farming livelihood zone were replanting owing to loss of seeds following a dry spell immediately after planting. South East Marginal Agriculture counties: The area planted in Kitui County was lower than the long term average due to late onset of the short rains and forecasted below normal rainfall. However, majority of crops were at knee heightflowering stage and in fair condition. Weeding for the season was also ongoing across the livelihood zones. In both the mixed farming and marginal Mixed farming livelihood zones of Makueni County, crops were at different stages, with maize ranging from knee-height to tasseling stage. Cases of fall army worm infestation were reported across all livelihood zone. In some areas, crops germinated and dried up following persistent drought and aridity while in some places there was completely no onset of the short rains. In Tharaka Nithi County, weeding and pest control by spraying was ongoing. About 90 of the farmers had planted considering the county relies on the short rains for food production. Crops were at four leaves development stage for legumes and knee height for cereal crops and in good condition. However, farmers continued to encounter production challenges, particularly those related to high input prices for herbicides, certified seeds and the fertilizers. 1.4.1 Maize prices In Tana River, West Pokot and Makueni counties, the price of maize was at a worsening trend during the month under review while the remaining countie were stable and improving trend compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The maize prices were above long term average. Table 7: Maize prices in December 2022 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Lamu Nyeri Baringo Tana River prices Embu Meru Embu West Pokot Garissa Marsabit Garissa Makueni Isiolo Lamu Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Kajiado Kilifi Kilifi Kitui Kitui Laikipia Mandera Makueni Narok Mandera Samburu Marsabit Taita Taveta Meru Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Wajir 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households is currently above long term average in 16 counties. However, the trend is generally improving compared to the previous month. Distances in arid counties ranged between 3.3 and 16.2 kilometres, with Isiolo recording lowest and Mandera recording highest distances. Distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 2.2 and 6.2 kilometres, with Nyeri (Kieni) recording the lowest and Kajiado the highest. Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta and Tana River counties showed an improving trend as shown in Table 8. Table 8: Distance from households to main water sources in December 2022 Distance Isiolo Kitui Baringo Embu Baringo Tharaka Nithi from Kajiado Meru Embu Kilifi Isiolo West Pokot househo Kilifi Garissa Kitui Kajiado Mandera lds to Kwale Narok Lamu Kwale Marsabit main Laikipia Samburu Makueni Laikipia Garissa water Lamu Meru Turkana sources Makueni Narok Wajir Nyeri Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tana River 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is mainly above long term average and on an improving trend in most ASAL counties compared to the previous month. However, trekking distances in Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Mandera and Marsabit counties are on a worsening trend due to poor performance of short rains seasons. The average trekking distance in arid counties ranged between 5 and 33.1 kilometres, with Baringo recording lowest distances and Marsabit highest. The average trekking distance in semi- arid counties ranged between 3.2 and 8.1 kilometres, with Nyeri recording the lowest and Taita Taveta highest. Table 9 shows the trend of distances for livestock from grazing areas to water main source. Table 9: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources in December 2022 Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance Embu Kajiado Baringo Baringo Garissa Embu from Isiolo Kitui Garissa Isiolo Taita Taveta Meru livestock Kilifi Kwale Narok Kajiado Turkana Tharaka grazing area Laikipia Samburu Kilifi Wajir Nithi to main Lamu Tana River Kitui West Pokot water Makueni Kwale Mandera sources Mandera Laikipia Marsabit Marsabit Lamu Meru Makueni Nyeri Narok Taita Nyeri Taveta Samburu Tharaka Tana River Pokot 1.6 TERMS OF TRADE Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long term average. The terms of trade are stable compared to the previous (November). Table 10: Terms of Trade in December 2022 Terms of Isiolo Narok Baringo Baringo Kwale trade Embu Garissa Tana River (ToT) Garissa Mandera Kitui Nyeri Mandera Marsabit Meru Tharaka Kilifi Nithi Laikipia Wajir Samburu Lamu Taita Taveta Narok Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Wajir Turkana West Pokot Embu Kajiado Kajiado Marsabit Kitui Turkana Makueni Tana River Meru Nyeri Isiolo Lamu Taita Isiolo Taveta 1.7 HEALTH AND NUTRITION High rates of children at risk of malnutrition were noted in Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Baringo and Isiolo counties. In addition, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Taita Taveta, Turkana and West-Pokot recorded Middle-Upper-Arm-Circumference (MUAC) measurement below long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued decrease in milk production and consumption at household level, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Meru, Narok and Nyeri counties recorded a worsening in trend during the month under review. Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across ASAL counties based on MUAC measurement. Table 11: Children at risk of malnutrition in December 2022 Baringo Embu Kilifi Embu Baringo Kilifi Nyeri Kwale Kitui Kitui Garissa Laikipia MUAC Kajiado Meru Laikipia Marsabit Kajiado Lamu Tharaka Samburu Lamu Tana River Mandera Nithi Taita West Pokot Meru Isiolo Taveta Tharaka- Narok Wajir Turkana Nithi Nyeri Mandera West- Wajir Tana River Pokot Kwale Marsabit Makueni Garissa Isiolo Taita- Taveta 2.0 DROUGHT PHASE CLASSIFICATION On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, nine (9) counties including Isiolo, Kitui, Kajiado, Kilifi, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana and Wajir are in Alarm drought phase. Another 13 counties - Garissa, Lamu, Narok, Tana River, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi Kwale Baringo, Laikipia, Meru, Taita Taveta, West Pokot and Nyeri - are in Alert drought phase, while Embu is in Normal drought phase. During the month under review, eight (8) counties reported an improving trend, three (3) counties recorded a stable trend, while twelve (12) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12 sums up the trend in drought phase classification as at the end of December 2022. Table 12: Drought phase classification in December 2022 Drought Trend status Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Embu Alert Garissa Kwale Baringo Lamu Laikipia Narok Meru Tana River Taita Taveta Makueni West Pokot Alarm Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Mandera Marsabit Emergency - - - Recovery - - - 3.0 RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Food and safety nets: Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households that are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. 2. Livestock sector: Provision of livestock feeds and supplements; and treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. 3. Water sector: Support water trucking; rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; provision of fuel subsidies to motorised boreholes; and procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. 4. Health and nutrition sector: Support towards hygiene and sanitation promotion; provisions for severe acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF) and Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). 5. Education sector: Enhanced hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. 6. Peace and security sector: Facilitating intrainter community peace dialogues and resource use agreements; and coordination of peace and security activities in conflict-prone counties. 7. Coordination: Support to County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th December 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI values Drought Category month as month as (3-month) at 27th at 25th 50 Vegetation greenness Nov 2022 Dec above normal 2022 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation 10 - 20 Severe vegetation 10 Extreme vegetation BARINGO County 56.99 37.83 The entire county and four sub-counties recorded Normal Central 66.98 53.62 vegetation greenness. However, this was a worsening trend compared to November. Eldama 66.98 44.62 Mogotio 54.37 37.22 North 56.93 38.15 South 57.98 39.26 Tiaty 54.52 33.46 MANDERA County 15.64 11.79 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation Banissa 17.96 17.84 condition at severe vegetation deficit. Mandera South and M East 10 5.59 Mandera East worsened to extreme vegetation deficit in Lafey 15.4 10.66 December. M North 17.84 16.16 M South 11.89 7.22 M West 17.66 10.93 TURKANA County 34.86 25.32 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation T Central 42.83 36.64 greenness though still maintained at moderate vegetation T. East 37.27 24.19 deficit T. Loima 36.87 26.77 T. North 26.54 20.54 T. South 41.84 28.21 T. West 35.99 25.57 MARSABIT County 12.5 8.79 The county and all sub counties worsened to extreme Laisaimis 11.77 8.26 vegetation deficit in December. Moyale 11.43 6.8 N. Horr 13.19 9.76 Saku 12.46 5.75 WAJIR County 13.84 7.3 The county and all sub counties worsened to extreme W East 14.83 7.41 vegetation deficit in December. W. Eldas 9.33 3.81 W. North 19.08 8.84 W. South 12.89 8.53 W. Tarbaj 16.9 8.75 W West 9.69 3 SAMBURU County 18.7 15.38 The county maintained remained at severe vegetation S East 9.31 11.31 deficit during the month under review. Samburu West S. North 23.26 16.45 worsened to moderate vegetation deficit from normal S. West 41.47 28.41 vegetation greenness. GARISSA County 17.59 27.59 The county experienced an improvement in vegetation Balambala 11.49 17.72 condition index to moderate vegetation deficit from severe Daadab 13.77 20.79 vegetation deficit in December. Lagdera worsened to Fafi 21.95 36.56 extreme vegetation deficit from severe vegetation deficit. Ijara 21.71 37.62 Lagdera 10.26 7.67 Dujis 16.67 22.13 ISIOLO County 9.86 7.37 The county and all sub counties maintained extreme I. North 9.46 6.68 vegetation deficit during the month under review. I. South 10.46 8.42 TANA RIVER County 20.62 29.21 The county and sub counties recorded moderate vegetation Bura 17.99 20.64 deficit in December. Garsen improved to normal vegetation Galole 20.22 30.54 greenness. Garsen 23.1 35.66 KAJIADO County 26.3 23.87 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado K. Central 15.44 14.07 central and Kajiado North recorded severe vegetation K. East 23.79 24.52 deficit. K. North 31.99 19.86 K. South 23.97 21.14 K. West 35.29 31.42 LAIKIPIA County 32.04 24.27 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit which L. East 31.34 32.13 was stable. Laikipia North worsened to severe vegetation L. North 21.64 15.37 deficit. L. West 51.85 37.15 THARAKA County 26.19 31.81 The county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit NITHI Chuka 39.26 44.71 during the month under review. Maara 41.89 39.42 Tharaka 16.24 24.52 WEST County 47.2 28.24 The County worsened to moderate vegetation deficit from POKOT Kacheliba 40.59 18.59 normal vegetation greenness during the month under Kapenguria 57.72 40.29 review. Pokot South 66.9 49.04 Sigor 38.71 23.33 EMBU County 41.19 47.79 The county and three its sub-counties recorded normal Manyatta 51.3 42.24 vegetation greenness except Mbeere north which recorded Mbeere 38.92 52.05 above normal vegetation greenness. Mbeere 36.31 48.56 Runyenjes 53.21 41.51 KITUI County 24.67 33.93 The county maintained moderate vegetation deficit during Kitui Central 25.99 37.34 the month under review. However, five sub counties Kitui East 23.54 33.73 improved to normal vegetation greenness. Mwingi 22.49 28.51 Mwingi 19.05 23.3 Mwingi 34.41 36.53 Kitui Rural 24.26 43.12 Kitui South 26.4 38.74 Kitui West 29.65 37.15 MAKUENI County 33.34 46.06 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation Kaiti 38.34 43.54 greenness to normal vegetation greenness from moderate Kibwezi East 26.26 41.52 vegetation greenness. Kibwezi 31.82 48.74 Kilome 26.93 30.65 Makueni 43.31 56.32 Mbooni 40.73 48.77 MERU County 29.98 32.83 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during Buuri 36.64 41.45 the month under review which was stable compared to Central 40.6 32.14 November. Igembe 23.05 29.25 Igembe 14.55 25.97 Igembe 25.48 25.35 North 31.15 27.09 South 52.4 31.19 Tigania East 26.3 36.08 Tigania 26.87 41.11 NYERI County 36.65 24.43 The county worsened to moderate vegetation deficit up Kieni 34.39 29.61 from normal vegetation greenness during the month of Mathira 35.64 12.62 November. Mukurweini 28.22 16.28 Othaya 55.09 26.78 Tetu 47.22 24.62 Township 12.72 2.37 KILIFI County 7.36 20.78 The vegetation condition in the county improved to Ganze 2.48 12.55 moderate vegetation deficit from extreme vegetation Kaloleni 13.62 12.75 deficit in December. Magarini 6.21 24.58 Malindi 8.2 24.48 Kilifi-North 20.44 32.45 Rabai 21.37 16.44 Kilifi-South 18.14 5.03 KWALE County 17.33 17.46 The county recorded stability trend in vegetation greenness Kinango 9.15 11.23 at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Lungalunga 24.56 22.02 Matuga 32.65 30.62 Msambweni 40.92 36.13 LAMU County 37.41 44.57 The County and one of its sub-counties recorded normal Lamu East 31.76 36.37 vegetation greenness which was improving trend when Lamu West 40.68 49.31 compared to the previous month of November. TAITA County 17.95 22.88 The county and two sub-counties recorded moderate TAVETA Mwatate 11.83 21.7 vegetation deficit up from severe vegetation deficit, which Taveta 21.01 25.09 was a decrease compared to November. Voi 17.94 22.28 Wundanyi 23.79 22.9 NAROK County 48.29 38.22 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in Narok-East 34.05 31.9 December. Emurua 69.31 60.65 Dikirr Kilgoris 64.44 54.87 Narok-North 43.32 37.59 Narok-South 36.78 27.42 Narok-West 58.21 41.82 Table 14: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score SUMMARY OF DROUGHT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle.