October 2020 1 P age KEY HIGHLIGHTS Most parts of the country experienced Access to water for livestock was better in generally sunny and dry conditions September compared with normal times as animals throughout the month of September. had to walk shorter distances compared with the However, The historically above-average usual distances recorded in the 2015 - 2019 long March-April-May (MAM) 2020 rainfall term average (LTA). This was attributed to the has continued to impact positively on average to above-average performance of the March water availability, forage, and crop to May rains which supported significant recharge production across the ASAL region. of water sources as well as triggering substantial pasture and browse regeneration in most ASAL During the month under review, livestock counties. body condition for all species was generally good and as a result, in most Currently, environmental indicators in 19 counties ASAL areas cattle prices are above the are within the expected ranges for the time of the three-year average price for the month of year and hence are classified in the normal drought September. stage while four counties including Mandera, Garissa, Marsabit and Wajir are classified in the In September 2020, the Terms of Trade alert phase. In most counties, the trend is worsening, (ToT) were favourable in nearly all the as would be expected towards the end of the dry ASAL counties with the current ToT in season. over 90 percent of the counties remaining above the LTA. The favourable terms of trade across the counties was credited to above normal goat prices along with the prevailing below-average maize prices. Drought phase classification, September 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Emergency Recovery 1.0. Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall Most ASAL counties like Mandera, Marsabit, and Wajir experienced generally sunny and dry conditions throughout the month of September 2020 which is normal at this time of the year. At the same time, several areas in Baringo, Samburu, West Pokot, Kilifi, and Kwale received significant rainfall amounts during the month. The drought early warning system managed by the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) assesses the severity of drought and its impact through the use of a combination of biophysical data, remote-sensed vegetation condition records, and social-economic data to determine the drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) communicates the state of vegetation cover, comparing it with the range of values observed in the same period in previous years. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) values as of 28th September 2020 are summarized in Table 1. Most ASAL areas received above-average rainfall during the 2020 March to May long rains season and as a result, vegetation greenness in the ASAL region is currently in the above normal ranges for the period. However, in Kwale County, the county VCI in September deteriorated slightly dropping to the normal vegetation greenness band with one sub-county Lunga Lunga recording moderate vegetation deficit. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI 3 month) Summary Status as of 28th September 2020 Above Normal Normal Moderate Severe Mandera Tana River Garissa Kwale Turkana Samburu Isiolo Kitui West Pokot Wajir Kajiado Embu Laikipia Lamu Meru Marsabit Makueni Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Baringo Taita Taveta Kwale Kilifi Tharaka (22) (1) (0) (0) Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in late September 2019 with that in late September 2020. When compared to similar period last year and the long term average, the current condition of vegetation is remarkably above September 2019 and long term average VCI values. The vegetation greenness index in most counties for the last nine consecutive months has been above normal ranges which is attributed to the impact of the above average cumulative rains received during the October - November - December (OND) 2019 and March-April-May (MAM) 2020 rainfall seasons. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2019 and September 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) September 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) September 2020 Livestock production Availability of good pasture and browse continued to positively impact on livestock productivity. In September, livestock body condition for most species was good with slight variations across the counties. In all areas, animals recorded better body condition currently compared to the similar period in previous years which was attributed to the positive impact of the long rains season on forage regeneration. Pasture and browse condition As a result of the above normal March to May rainfall, the state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair and good condition as shown in Table 2. However, Mandera, Meru and Tana River reported a deterioration pasture quantity and quality. For instance, in Mandera County 57 percent of the 210 households interviewed reported that pasture and browse condition was poor while 43 percent reported pasture and browse condition as fair. The deterioration in pasture situation was attributed to reduced regeneration owing to the prevailing dry condition and heavy grazing pressure due to the large increase in livestock numbers. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, September 2020 Pasture Browse Poor Fair Good Poor Fair Good Mandera Embu, Garissa Baringo, Kilifi Mandera Embu, Garissa, Nyeri Baringo, Kilifi Meru Kitui, Kwale Marsabit, Isiolo Meru Isiolo, Kajiado, Wajir Lamu, Narok Tana River Makueni, Nyeri Kajiado, Lamu Turkana, Kitui, Kwale Samburu Tharaka Nithi Narok, Samburu Makueni, Marsabit, Taita Taveta Turkana, Wajir Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Livestock body condition In September livestock body condition for all species was generally good except in few counties like Tana River, Turkana, Marsabit, Garissa, Nyeri, and Lamu where fair livestock body condition was observed as illustrated in Table 2. The slight decline in livestock body condition was attributed to the gradual degeneration of forage as the typical dry spell ensued. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, September 2020 Cattle Goats P oor Fair Good P oor Fair Good Embu Kilifi Wajir Tana River Taita Taveta Narok Lamu Kajiado Kwale Turkana West Pokot Isiolo Garissa Laikipia Baringo Marsabit Makueni Embu Nyeri Makueni Mandera Garissa Mandera Kitui Tana River Marsabit Kitui Nyeri Samburu Meru T urkana Samburu Meru Lamu Kajiado Kwale Taita Taveta Narok Laikipia Baringo West Pokot Isiolo Kilifi Wajir Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Milk production Milk production situation in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in Table 4. Milk production reduced considerably across counties during the month under review. For example, in Marsabit County, average milk production per household per day dropped by a margin of 43 percent to 0.8 litres in September from 1.4 litres in August while household milk production per day in Wajir reduced by 29 percent from 2.1 litres in August to 1.5 litres in September. Similarly, in Kajiado County, average milk production per household per day decreased by 25 percent from 4 litres in August to 3 litres in September. The observed drop in milk production was attributed to dry conditions and the associated general decline in availability of water, pasture and browse in most ASAL counties. Table 4.0: Milk production, September 2020 Milk Isiolo Mandera Tana River Samburu Narok Embu Samburu, Nyeri Production Meru Embu Kajiado Baringo Wajir, Kilifi Narok Kitui Marsabit Garissa Kitui, Kajiado Turkana Baringo Isiolo Lamu, Makueni Garissa Laikipia Kwale Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Kwale Mandera Taita Taveta Makueni Wajir Meru Marsabit Kilifi Lamu Tana River Turkana West Pokot Nyeri West Pokot Laikipia Taita Taveta Cattle prices In majority of the ASAL counties, cattle prices are above the three-year average price for the month of September as shown Table 5. For example, in Wajir, Kajiado, Makueni, Garissa, Kilifi, and Marsabit the prevalent prices are above the average cattle prices for a similar period of the year by 49, 48, 47, 25, 23, and 21 percent respectively. The above normal cattle prices was attributed to the improved cattle body condition. However, in Turkana County, the price of cattle was lower than the long term average price for the same month by nine percent which could be attributed to the deteriorating cattle body condition occasioned by declining pasture availability. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, September 2020 Cattle Baringo, Embu (Mbeere), Kitui Turkana Makueni Baringo, West Pokot, Lamu Prices Makueni, Garissa, Isiolo, Lamu Mandera Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Meru Kajiado, Kilifi, Wajir, Narok, Meru Samburu Kilifi, Tana River, Narok Nyeri (Kieni), Taita Taveta, Kitui, Marsabit, Nyeri Tharaka Tana River, Laikipia, Mandera, Kajiado, Taita Taveta, Wajir Marsabit, Tharaka Nithi, West Turkana, Laikipia, Pokot, Samburu Kwale Goat prices Table 6 exhibits the trends in goat prices in September 2020 in the 23 ASAL counties. During the month under review, nearly all ASAL counties reported above normal or close to LTA prices for goats that was occasioned by the prevalent good body condition for goats. Table 6.0: Goat prices, September 2020 Goat Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Makueni Lamu Baringo Isiolo, Wajir, Kajiado, Garissa Prices Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Marsabit Kitui Laikipia, Embu, Lamu, Kwale Laikipia, Narok, Samburu, Taita Tana River Makueni, Nyeri, Taita Meru, Narok Isiolo, Kitui, Meru, Nyeri, Turkana Taveta, West Pokot, Tharaka Mandera, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir Marsabit, Samburu Turkana Tana River, West Pokot Kilifi Mandera For example, in Kajiado County, the average price of Kshs 5,390 recorded in September for a 2- year old medium size goat was 59 percent higher than the three-year average of Kshs 3,390. In Samburu, the average price for a medium size goat of Kshs 3,420 was above the 2015-2019 average by 26 percent while in Baringo the average price of a goat stood at Kshs 3,406 which was above the LTA by 11 percent. Similarly, in West Pokot, the county reported an average price of Kshs 4,525 for a 2-year old goat which was 12 percent above the long term average price for September. Land preparation is ongoing in nearly all the marginal agricultural counties as households prepare for the start of the October to December short rains. Currently there were no crops on the farms apart from crops grown under irrigation such as kales, cabbages and tomatoes. Maize prices In about 65 percent of the ASAL counties the price of maize remained stable in September. In addition, the current maize prices are largely favourable with 20 counties recording prices that are close to or below LTA. For example, in Meru (Meru North), Lamu, West Pokot, Kilifi, Baringo and Narok current prices are below LTA by 21, 19, 18, 14, 11 and 9 percent respectively. The decrease in maize prices was attributed to harvesting and hence availability of maize at household level and increase in maize supply in most markets. Table 7 shows the trends in maize prices in September 2020. Table 7.0: Maize prices, September 2020 Maize Garissa Embu Isiolo, Kilifi Tana River Garissa, Isiolo, Meru Prices Kwale Kajiado Kitui, Lamu West Pokot Kitui, Laikipia Embu Mandera Makueni Taita Taveta Kilifi Makueni, Nyeri Kajiado Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Narok Mandera, Wajir Kwale Samburu Baringo, Baringo, Lamu, Tana River Meru Tharaka Nithi, Turkana Narok, Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Turkana, Laikipia Marsabit, Samburu, Access to water for households The trends in distances walked by households to access water is illustrated in Table 8. Generally, the domestic water situation in most counties declined slightly but largely remained better when compared with similar periods. In 12 ASAL counties, the average distances to water sources for households recorded an increase compared to the month of August. Some of the largest increase in distances to the main water points for households during the month were in the following counties: Tana River, Wajir, Turkana, Marsabit, Kwale, Mandera, Kilifi, Lamu and Nyeri. In Kwale, for instance, average household distance to watering sources increased by 46 percent from 2.4 km in August to 3.5 km in September. In Tana River, current average return distance from household to the main water sources increased to 5.2 km from 4.1 km in August, rising by 28 percent. Likewise, in Turkana County, distance to water sources from the household increased by 22 percent to 5.6 km from 4.6 km recorded in August, while in Mandera return distances to the main water points for households increased by 21 percent from 9.8 km in August to 11.9 km in September. The increase in the trekking distance to water sources was as result of drying up of some open water sources such as traditional wells, ponds, shallow wells, water pans and dams. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, September 2020 Distance from Garissa Kajiado Kajiado, Kilifi, Wajir Kajiado Taita Taveta Wajir, Nyeri, Meru households to Kwale Makueni Kitui, Isiolo, Embu West Pokot Kitui, Embu Makueni, Narok main water Lamu Laikipia Baringo, Meru, Narok Samburu Turkana, Lamu sources Marsabit Mandera, Samburu Laikipia Marsabit, Kwale Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Mandera, Kilifi Taita Taveta Baringo Tana River West Pokot Garissa Tana River Isiolo Access to water for livestock Table 9 displays the current status and trends in the distance walked by livestock in search of water. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas increased or remained stable in all counties except in Tharaka and Embu. The worsening trend was attributed to the drying up of open water sources occasioned by the dry conditions experienced during the month under review. However, in 15 counties, access to water for livestock was better in September compared with normal times as animals had to walk shorter distances compared with the usual distances recorded in the 2015 - 2019 long term average (LTA). This was attributed to the average to above average performance of the March to May rains which supported significant recharge of water sources as well as triggering substantial pasture and browse regeneration in most ASAL counties. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, September 2020 Distance from Kilifi Laikipia Baringo, Narok, Isiolo Embu Taita Taveta Kwale, Wajir, Lamu livestock Lamu Makueni Taita Taveta, Kajiado Tharaka West Pokot Kilifi, Kitui, Narok grazing area to Marsabit Kwale Embu, Wajir, Kitui Laikipia Mandera, Samburu main water Meru Marsabit, Samburu Kajiado Marsabit, Makueni Nyeri Garissa, Mandera Meru Baringo, Garissa sources Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Isiolo, Kajiado Tana River Terms of trade Terms of trade (ToT) is an indirect means of measuring purchasing power for households who mainly depend on markets for food. Therefore, each month, the drought early warning system monitors the relative price of goats and maize, showing the number of kilogrammes of maize that can be exchanged for one goat. In September 2020, the terms of trade were favourable in nearly all the ASAL counties with the current ToT in 22 counties remaining above the LTA as shown in Table 10. The favourable terms of trade across the counties is credited to above normal goat prices along with the prevailing below average maize prices. Among the arid counties, the highest terms of trade was recorded in Marsabit County where households could purchase 88 kg of maize from the sale of one average-sized goat compared to the LTA for September of 68 kg. Garissa County recorded the lowest terms of trade at 50 kg which was still above the LTA of 30 kg. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, September 2020 Terms of Tana River Kwale Taita Taveta West Pokot Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi trade West Pokot Lamu Tana River Mandera Samburu (ToT) Makueni Wajir Baringo Marsabit Makueni Samburu Nyeri Kwale Laikipia Turkana Turkana Meru Kilifi Kitui Kajiado Kajiado Embu Nyeri Garissa Mandera Kitui Wajir Isiolo Marsabit Kilifi Lamu Embu Tharaka Isiolo Narok Meru Baringo Narok Laikipia Garissa Health and nutrition In several arid counties, the proportion of children who are moderately and severely malnourished increased slightly in September when compared to the previous month which could partially be attributed to reducing milk consumption as well as poor dietary intake. For instance, In Isiolo County, 4.2 and 7.0 percent of children were severely malnourished and moderately malnourished respectively. Similarly in Turkana County, 2.2 percent of children had moderate malnutrition while 0.6 percent were severely malnourished. On the other hand in Baringo County, as a result of the availability of milk at the household level and enhanced household income from higher livestock prices, the nutrition status of the sampled children under five years of age remained stable of which 86.7 percent of the sampled children were properly nourished while 9.2 and 1.1 percent had moderate and severe malnutrition respectively. 1.2 Drought phase classification The Kenyan drought management system uses five drought early warning phases categorized as normal, alert, alarm, emergency and recovery. Currently, environmental indicators in 19 counties lie within the expected ranges for the time of the year and hence are classified in the normal drought stage. On the other hand, four counties including Mandera, Garissa, Marsabit and Wajir are classified in the alert phase. In most counties, the trend is worsening, as would be expected towards the end of the dry season. Basically, as at the end of September, 12 counties were reporting a worsening trend while 11 counties recorded a stable trend. Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, September 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening 2.0 Projected food security situation According to the forecast for the October-November-December (OND) 2020 short rains season, it is projected that several parts of Kenya will experience depressed rainfall that will be poorly distributed both in time and space. The below-average rainfall is expected to support modest recharge of water sources and short-lived pasture regeneration which is likely to result in a gradual deterioration in livestock productivity across ASAL counties. It is also anticipated that in most pastoral areas livestock migration is likely to start earlier than usual hence reducing household milk access and increasing chances of resource-based conflicts and spread of livestock diseases. In the marginal agricultural areas, the below normal rainfall is expected to lead to poor crop performance. Furthermore, the expected decrease in cropping activities and demand for agricultural wage labour will likely result in below-average household income from casual labour and crop sales. 3.0 Recommendations Up scaling provision of food assistance and cash transfers to vulnerable households. Livestock disease surveillance across counties. Promote hay harvesting and conservation. Improvement of marketing infrastructure including provision of hand washing facilities in line with MoH protocols on COVID-19 prevention in order to enhance smooth market operations. Provision of drought tolerant seeds and other farm inputs and tools to farmers and agro pastoralists. Repair of broken down water facilities such as strategic boreholes at the same time installing water harvesting structures in strategic institutions. Provision of water treatment chemicals for communities using open surface water sources. Sensitization of good hygiene including hand washing, social distancing and conduct awareness campaigns on COVID-19 prevention. Continous engagement and capacity building for mothers and caregivers on use of Family MUAC in order to improve the quality of nutrition data. Scale up mass screening and integrated medical outreaches targeting malnutrition hotspots in all ASAL counties. Conduct inter-county and cross border peace dialogue and conflict resolution meetings to facilitate harmony and resource sharing. Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th September 2020 BARINGO County 98.09 96.55 Off season rains received during the June to September period have Central 88.95 88.01 improved the vegetation greenness substantially hence vegetation greenness has remained above normal in all parts of the county. Eldama 85.56 83.39 Mogotio 97.22 97.02 North 94.19 92.66 South 88.83 89.98 Tiaty 98.09 104.49 MANDERA County 95.49 94.20 All sub counties maintained above normal vegetation greenness. Banissa 85.70 85.29 M. East 88.26 86.00 Lafey 103.1 100.58 M. North 96.99 99.51 M. South 96.12 93.86 M. West 95.56 91.23 TURKANA County 91.05 91.13 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation T. Central 105.12 101.28 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. T. East 86.63 80.71 T. Loima 99.48 105.14 T. North 78.99 77.06 T. South 98.83 100.63 T. West 95.23 99.54 MARSABIT County 68.87 69.01 The entire county is in above normal vegetation greenness. Laisaimis 73.62 71.29 Moyale 62.73 68.32 N. Horr 67.08 67.13 Saku 81.41 83.03 WAJIR County 62.8 62.51 All sub counties maintained vegetation greenness above normal with slight W. East 69.12 70.57 deterioration in Wajir South. W. Eldas 62.74 60.66 W. North 83.88 78.79 W. South 47.84 49.63 W. Tarbaj 81.72 78.72 W. West 54.35 58.98 SAMBURU County 82.46 79.66 The entire county is in above normal vegetation greenness. S. East 81.76 81.86 S. North 82.33 75.37 S. West 86.15 85.63 GARISSA County 64.81 63.08 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 93.45 89.90 Daadab 66.62 63.43 Fafi 60.41 56.76 Ijara 51.68 53.62 Lagdera 69.15 70.65 Dujis 72.18 69.00 ISIOLO County 65.47 76.59 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation I. North 65.00 76.31 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. I. South 66.18 77.02 TANA County 78.77 76.93 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. RIVER Bura 95.63 90.63 Galole 71.80 72.08 Garsen 68.82 68.34 KAJIADO County 91.10 95.59 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. K. Central 77.98 80.70 K. East 80.29 86.21 K. North 66.55 59.8 K. South 87.85 96.10 K. West 106.36 108.43 LAIKIPIA County 90.85 87.86 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation L. East 83.79 78.22 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. L. North 93.52 89.84 L. West 89.25 88.81 THARAKA County 68.49 66.17 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. NITHI Chulga 78.63 71.45 Maara 78.38 70.50 Tharaka 61.51 62.80 WEST County 85.81 87.86 As a result of the cumulative effect of the off season rainfall received during POKOT Kacheliba 86.63 91.28 the period from June to September, the vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Kapenguria 88.74 90.14 Pokot South 69.77 73.01 Sigor 88.66 88.50 EMBU County 74.08 66.22 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Manyatta 78.17 72.48 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Mbeere North 74.25 70.51 Mbeere South 72.27 60.69 Runyenjes 75.81 66.22 KITUI County 97.13 96.50 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kitui Central 106.41 111.79 Kitui East 108.47 106.97 Mwingi Central 99.41 97.86 Mwingi North 76.84 78.64 Mwingi West 95.13 97.66 Kitui Rural 112.85 117.13 Kitui South 97.09 94.86 Kitui West 109.24 112.84 MAKUENI County 96.09 99.91 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Kaiti 96.51 93.19 Kibwezi East 88.92 94.48 Kibwezi West 89.93 95.73 Kilome 87.28 88.10 Makueni 105.17 107.87 Mbooni 118.95 121.71 MERU County 80.57 82.38 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Buuri 81.81 84.90 Central Imenti 80.63 73.28 Igembe Central 88 95.13 Igembe North 72.74 78.09 Igembe South 81.64 82.40 North Imenti 89.34 84.15 South Imenti 81.25 75.60 Tigania East 75.57 79.35 Tigania West 82.86 85.32 NYERI County 82.84 78.66 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kieni 85.85 83.28 Mathira 82.22 75.18 Mukurweini 78.82 69.15 Town 86.89 82.52 Othaya 74.16 65.68 Tetu 76.65 74.78 KILIFI County 58.72 53.25 The county is in the above normal vegetation greenness band with slight Ganze 58.75 51.63 deterioration (normal vegetation greenness) observed in 3 sub counties: Kaloleni, Rabai and Kilifi South. Kaloleni 56.01 46.06 Magarini 58.72 54.67 Malindi 63.43 60.01 Kilifi-North 58.52 55.29 Rabai 59.89 45.52 Kilifi-South 56.2 43.68 KWALE County 46.51 37.88 The county VCI in September is within normal ranges. However, Lunga Kinango 46.1 38.32 Lunga sub county is currently experiencing a moderate vegetation deficit. Lungalunga 40.52 29.27 Matuga 56.27 47.78 Msambweni 55.27 48.73 LAMU County 59.38 61.34 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 65.63 65.48 Lamu West 55.77 58.94 TAITA County 85.96 86.49 The vegetation greenness is above normal across all the sub counties. TAVETA Mwatate 87.68 88.73 Taveta 87.68 92.49 Voi 82.61 81.54 Wundanyi 110.8 107.37 NAROK County 79.18 80.52 Vegetation greenness above normal. Narok-East 81.22 81.24 Emurua Dikirr 68.32 77.31 Kilgoris 67.52 71.00 Narok-North 77.16 74.27 Narok-South 84.28 84.57 Narok-West 80.83 84.32 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Nutrition Circumference) Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification