NATIONAL DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 2023 1. Drought Situation Overview The drought situation remained stable in most of the ASAL counties in September 2023. This is attributed to close to normal performance and impacts of March to May (MAM) rains. Currently, 18 counties have reported Normal drought phase while five (5) reported Alert phase and require close monitoring. The number of people requiring relief assistance stands at 2.8 million based on the assessment of the impact of the March to May long rains on food security conducted in July. The five counties in the Alert drought phase are Laikipia, Samburu, Turkana, Tana River and Taita Taveta. The counties in Normal drought phase include Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Marsabit, Kajiado, West Pokot and Isiolo. Figure 1 illustrates the drought phase classification for the month of September Figure 1. Drought Phase Classification -September 2023 2023. 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 September 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the September 2023 monthly rainfall performance shows that though the October to December short rains season had not started in most ASAL counties, most parts received little amounts of rainfall, particularly the Pastoral Northeast cluster including Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa which received between 1mm to 20mm. The Pastoral Northwest counties - Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu - received between 1mm to 50mm while the Southeast Marginal Agriculture counties received near- to-above average rainfall, except Embu and Nyeri which registered below average rainfall. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale and Kilifi received below average rainfall while the Figure 2: September 2023 Rainfall Performance Northeast, most of the Southeastern lowlands and the Northwestern region remained dry in September except Machakos which received above average rainfall. 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for October 2023 The Pastoral Northeast livelihhod zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir,Tana River and Garissa), Southeast Marginal Agriculture including Machakoes, Makueni, Kitui, Taita-Taveta) and North Western Kenya of (Turkana,Samburu) are likely to experience onset of seasonal rainfall from the third to fourth week of October. The expected total rainfall amounts for Northeast and Southeast lowlands are likely to be above the long-term average for October, while Turkana and Samburu are likely to receive near-average to above-average rainfall. The expected total rainfall amounts are likely to be near-to-above long term average amounts for October. The Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones including Kajiado and Narok are likely to experience enhanced rainfall amounts exceeding the long term average for October and are likely to be from the third to fourth week of October. However, rainfall in Narok is likely to continue from September 2023. The coastal marginal agriculture counties including Lamu, Kilifi, Mombasa, Kwale and Tana River are likely to experience enhanced rainfall during the month. The expected total rainfall amounts are likely to be above the long-term average for October. The rainfall outlook for Figure 3: October 2023 Rainfall Forecast October is shown in Figure 3. 1.1.3. Flooding Enhanced rainfall in most ASAL counties as provided in the outlook is likely to be characterised by localised incidences of flooding in particular zones as indicated in Figure 4. All the 23 ASAL counties have contingency plans in place and NDMA is currently monitoring the key hotspots as the short rains season starts. Figure 4: Flooding hotspots in ASAL counties. 1.2 Vegetation Condition A marginal change was noted in the vegetation condition index (VCI) in some of the ASAL counties during the month of September compared to August 2023, where three counties depicted changes in VCI values as indicated in Figure 5 below. Figure 5: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCI) of August and September 2023 There was slight decline in vegetation condition across the ASALs in September compared to August 2023. The decline is attributed to high temperatures. However, the condition is expected to improve with onset of the October to December short rains season. Nonetheless, none of ASAL counties indicated either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Five (5) counties including Taita Taveta, Samburu, Turkana, West Pokot and Laikipia reported moderate vegetation deficit, indicating slight deterioration in environmental indicators. Seven (7) counties, Kilifi, Marsabit, Tana River, Narok, Baringo, Garissa and Kajiado, recorded Normal vegetation greenness. 11 counties including Embu, Isiolo, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir and Mandera recorded above normal vegetation greenness. A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at the end of September 2023 is as illustrated in Table 1disaggregated by sub-county. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index in September 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe Vegetation Deficit (0) (1) Laikipia North Moderate Vegetation Deficit (5) (19) Samburu, Taita Samburu (East, North, West), Mwatate, Voi, Wundanyi, Taveta, Turkana, Bura, Turkana ( East, South, North), Kacheliba, Sigor, West Pokot, Mogotio, Tiaty, Balambala, Garissa Township, Kajiado Laikipia (Central, East), Laikipia East Normal Vegetation (7) (30) Greenness Baringo, Garissa, Baringo South, Ijara, Fafi, Kajiado (South, West), Kajiado, Magarini, Mwingi (North, West), Laikipia West, Kibwezi Kilifi, Marsabit, West, Mandera (North, West), Banissa, Laisamis, Tana River, Narok Moyale, Tigania (East,West),Taveta, Galole, Garsen, Tharaka, Loima, Turkana (Central, West) Wajir East, K apenguria, Kilgoris,Narok( East, West, South). Above-normal Vegetation (11) (61) Greenness Embu, Isiolo, Kitui, Baringo (Central, North), Eldama Ravine, Embere Kwale, Lamu, (South, North), Manyatta, Runyenjes, Lagdera, Dadab, Makweni, Meru, Isiolo (North, South), Kaloleni, Kilifi (North, South), Nyeri, Tharaka Malindi, Rabai, Kitui (Central, South, West, East, Rural) Nithi, Wajir and Mwingi, Central, Kinango, Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni, Mandera Lamu (East,West), Kaiti, Kilome, Makweni, Mbooni, Kibwezi West, Mandera (East, South),North-Horr, Saku, Buuri, IMENTI (Central, North, South),Igembe (Central, North, South), Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Othaya,Tetu, Chuka, Maara, Tarbaj, Eldas, Wajir (North, West, South), Pokot South, Emurrua Dikirr, Narok North 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition Deterioration in the condition of forage was noted across majority of ASAL counties, with about 83 reporting the condition of pasture and browse to be fair-to-good (Table 2). The witnessed pasture and browse condition were within the normal level for the month of September, save for a few counties such as Turkana, Kitui, Laikipia and Taita Taveta that recorded poor conditions. The observed deterioration of forage condition across the period under review could be attributed to the prevailing dry and hot weather conditions in most parts of the ASALs. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition in September 2023. Pasture Browse Baringo Garissa Kitui Isiolo Kilifi Makueni Embu Baringo Kajiado Kwale Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Narok Lamu Kajiado Kwale Taita Taveta Nyeri (Kieni) Marsabit Kilifi Lamu Samburu Wajir Laikipia Marsabit Tana River Meru North Narok Wajir Tharaka Nithi Nyeri (Kieni) West Pokot West Pokot Samburu Meru North Mandera Taita Taveta Makueni Tana River Embu Tharaka Nithi Mandera 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock was generally fair-to-good all across all ASAL counties (Table 3).The observed body condition over September was consistent with the one normally observed over the same period normally across most counties and that could be attributed to availability of forage and water within relatively shorter distances. Table 3: Livestock body condition in September 2023. Cattle GoatsSheep Baringo Isiolo Baringo Embu Embu Kilifi Kitui Garissa Garissa Kwale Makueni Isiolo Kajiado Marsabit Narok Kajiado Kitui Wajir Nyeri (Kieni) Kilifi Laikipia West Pokot Samburu Kwale Lamu Meru North Tana River Laikipia Makueni Mandera Turkana Lamu Narok Marsabit Nyeri (Kieni) Taita Taveta Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Meru North Turkana Mandera 1.3.3 Milk production Stability in the level of milk produced was noted during the month under review with respect to the previous month. However, approximately 50 of the counties reported below average milk production which could be attributed to low tropical livestock units (TLUs) as a result of previous failed seasons that resulted in livestock mortalities (Table 4). Factors driving the observed stability included availability of forage and water in most counties. Table 4: Milk production in September 2023. Milk Isiolo Lamu Kilifi Kajiado Baringo Kitui Production Turkana Makueni Marsabit Makueni Garissa Lamu Wajir Mandera Samburu Marsabit Isiolo Kilifi Embu West Tana River Wajir Laikipia Mandera Kwale Pokot Baringo Embu Meru Narok Meru Garissa Kwale Samburu Nyeri Tharaka Kajiado Taita Taveta Nithi Kitui Tana River Laikipia Tharaka Narok Nithi Nyeri Turkana Taita Taveta West Pokot 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Unconfirmed Incidences of endemic livestock diseases including Contagious Bovine Pleural Pneumonia, Contagious Caprine Pleural Pneumonia, Lumpy Skin Disease, Peste des petit ruminants (PPR), goatsheep pox, Heartwater disease and Mange were reported across most arid counties. Equally, suspected cases of Foot and Mouth Disease were reported in Embu, West Pokot, Samburu, and Narok Counties. Tick borne diseases such as anaplasmosis, babesiosis and East Coast Fever were recorded in majority of the counties, with reported cases of abortions among goats in some areas such as Kajiado West due to suspected Q-Fever disease. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties about 65 - recorded above-average cattle prices, with about 13 reporting prices that were at par with the usual prices and below the respective normal prices (Table 5). Generally, stability in the price of cattle across most counties was noted and that could be attributed to the stable body condition occasioned by forage and water availability. However, a negative trend was evident in Embu, Garissa, Kilifi, Meru and Tana River counties. Table 5: Cattle prices in September 2023 Cattle Baringo Embu Laikipia Isiolo Baringo Embu Prices Garissa Kitui Taita Taveta Kwale Kajiado Garissa Isiolo Makueni Laikipia Lamu Kilifi Kajiado Narok Mandera Makueni Kitui Kilifi, Wajir Nyeri Marsabit Nyeri Meru Kwale West Pokot Narok Samburu Tana River Lamu Wajir Taita Taveta Mandera Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Turkana Meru, Turkana West Pokot Samburu Tana River 1.3.6 Goat Prices Stability was observed in the market prices of goats across most ASAL counties with a tendency towards improvement during the month under review. Overall, majority of the counties (95) reported prices that were above normal for the period, with the exception of Lamu and Nyeri whose prices were below the long-term average. The good body condition driven by browse and water availability was the major factor that influenced the observed price positivity over the month under analysis. Table 6: Goat prices in September 2023. Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Goat Baringo Garissa Baringo Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado Garissa Prices Embu, Kitui, Isiolo, Kwale, Lamu Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni, Kwale Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia Mandera Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Taita Samburu Lamu, Narok, Makueni, Nyeri Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Tana River Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot 1.4 Crop Production Crop production is mainly practiced in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture and Southeast marginal agriculture clusters. The current state of crop production is indicated in Table 7. Table 7: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production South East Kitui Production was significantly reduced as a result of crop failure and destruction by Marginal aphids. The actual production for most crops was 60-100 of the long-term Agriculture average. Agropastoral Baringo Most farmers have concluded harvesting various crops and land preparation was ongoing in preparation for the short rains season. Laikipia In September, some farms in the Mixed Farming Livelihood and some in the Marginal Mixed Farming reported harvesting of maize while others reported harvesting of beans and Irish potatoes. In other farms, maize crop is at maturity- to-harvesting stage, wheat at maturing-to-harvesting stage although low yields are expected for both due to early cessation of the March to May rains and poor June-July-August off-season rains and frostbite attacks (maize). Narok Currently, some of crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zones are at germination and knee-high stages for maize and beans are in good condition. West Pokot Most areas in the pastoral livelihood zones suffered crop failure due to moisture stress during the critical stages of flowering, tasseling and grain formation and farmers got little to no harvest at all. The affected wards include: Masol in Pokot Central Sub- County, Alale, Suam, Kodich and Kapchok in Pokot North Sub- County as well as Lower Chepareria in Kipkomo Sub- County. 1.4.1 Maize prices Majority of the counties (over 95) recorded above long term average maize prices. However, 11 counties including Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, lamu, Makueni, Narok, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi and Turkana recorded an improving trend as result of ongoing harvesting. Slight improvement was recorded compared to the previous months as illustrated in Table 8. Observed trend over the month could be attributed to improved maize availability occasioned by ongoing harvest within the ASALs and other adjacent counties, coupled with external and cross-border imports. Table 8: Maize prices in September 2023 Above LTA Atclose to Below Improving Stable Worsening LTA LTA Maize Baringo, Embu Garissa Baringo Embu Meru Prices Isiolo, Kajiado Kilifi Garissa West Pokot Kilifi, Kitui Kwale Isiolo Kwale, Laikipia Laikipia Kajiado Lamu, Makueni Lamu Kitui Mandera, Nyeri Makueni Mandera Marsabit, Meru Narok Marsabit Narok, Wajir Samburu Nyeri Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Wajir Tana River Turkana West Pokot 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Household distance to water source in 12 counties is currently above LTA and on a worsening trend compared to the previous month. Distance to water source in arid counties is between 2.8 and 8.5 kilometres, with Isiolo recording the lowest while Mandera reported the highest distances to household water access. On the other hand, distances in the semi-arid counties ranged between 1.5 and 6.6 kilometres, with Kajiado recording lowest and Kitui recording highest distances in respect to the previous month. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources, September2023 Distance from Kajiado, Nyeri, Embu, Isiolo, Embu, Baringo, Kilifi, Kajiado, Nyeri, households to Baringo, Samburu Kilifi, Kitui , Baringo Kajiado, Baringo, Samburu main water Taita Taveta, Tana Lamu, Marsabit Mandera, Makueni, Taita Taveta, sources River, Turkana, , Mandera, Meru Narok, Tharaka Mandera, Tana Makueni, Tharaka Narok, Kwale, Tharaka Nithi, Nithi, West River, Turkana, Nithi, Laikipia, West Wajir, Mandera Narok, Isiolo Pokot, Kwale, Makueni, Tharaka Pokot, Meru Kitui, Lamu Wajir, Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia, Makueni Nithi West Pokot, Marsabit 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock In Comparison to the previous months, the trekking distance to water source from grazing areas worsened in 13 counties in September, while other counties were below long term average and at long term average respectively as depicted in Table 10. The counties that reported a worsening trend include: Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana, Garissa, Isiolo, Lamu, Kilifi, Kitui, Wajir, Marsabit and Mandera. Its also worth noting that seven (7) counties including Baringo, Kitui, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and West Pokot recorded above long term average distances from livestock grazing areas to main water sources. The average livestock trekking distances from grazing areas to water points in arid counties was between 4 and 15.4 kilometres, with Lamu reporting the lowest and Samburu the highest. In semi-arid counties, the distance was between 2.4 and 7.7 kilometres, with Kilifi County recording the lowest and Taita Taveta the highest distance. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources in September 2023 Distance from Baringo, Kitui, Nyeri Kwale Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado Narok Kwale Samburu, Taita- livestock Samburu, Taita- Narok Kilifi, Lamu, Tharaka Embu Embu Taveta, Turkana grazing areas Taveta, Tana River, Nithi, Marsabit, Wajir Baringo Kajiado Isiolo, Lamu, Kilifi to main water Turkana and West Garissa, Kwale, Tharaka Kitui, Tana River sources Pokot Mandera and Meru Nithi Wajir, Marsabit, Nyeri West Pokot Garissa, Mandera 1.6 Terms of Trade In September, 48 of ASAL counties reported Terms of Trade that were below the respective long term average, indicating an improvement compared to the previous month. Most of the counties are close to long term average, depicting an improving trend in household purchasing power as result of ongoing harvest as illustrated in Table 11. Table 11: Terms of Trade in September 2023. Terms of Garissa, Isiolo, Kwale, Baringo, Embu Baringo, Isiolo, Kajiado, Lamu Embu trade (ToT) Lamu, Mandera, Narok, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Taita Taveta Garissa Tana River, Tharaka Laikipia, Marsabit, Mandera, Marsabit, West Pokot Makueni Nithi, Turkana, Wajir and Nyeri, Samburu, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Makueni TaitaTaveta, West Tana River, Tharaka Pokot, Meru Nithi, Tukana and Wajir 1.7 Health and Nutrition The nutrition situation was above long term average in 52 of the counties, with 11 counties on a worsening trend including: Garissa, Isiolo, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Meru and Turkana. The poor nutrition status is as result of previous failed seasons, thus livelihoods are still on recovery mode and low milk production at household level due to reduced livestock numbers as shown in Table 12. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (based on Middle-Upper-Arm-Circumference measurements) in September 2023 Baringo Embu Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Kajiado Garissa Kwale Kitui Isiolo MUAC Kitui Kilifi Marsabit Mandera Laikipia Kwale Marsabit Wajir Baringo Lamu Laikipia Narok Embu Makueni Lamu Samburu Taita Taveta Narok Makueni Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Nyeri Mandera Wajir Tharaka Nithi Samburu Nyeri West Pokot Tana River Taita Taveta Meru Turkana Tana River Meru 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, five counties including Laikipia, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Turkana are classified at the Alert drought phase and on a worsening trend, while 18 counties are at the Normal phase with a worsening trend being noted in Kitui, Makueni, Garissa and Nyeri as illustrated in Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification in September 2023 Drought Trend Status Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Isiolo Baringo, Embu, Kilifi, Kajiado, Lamu, Narok, Kitui, Makueni, Nyeri, Garissa Marsabit Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Kwale, West Pokot, Mandera, Meru Alert Laikipia, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana Alarm - - - Emergency - - - Recovery - - - 3.0 Recommendations 3.1 Food and safety nets Sustained provision of food assistance and cash transfer to food insecure populations. 3.2 Livestock sector Facilitating safe migrations for pastoralists accessing dry season grazing areas. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. 3.3 Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Management of water facilities. Installation of water resource level monitoring equipment. Development of water harvesting infrastructure, especially in schools. 3.4 Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotion. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). 3.5 Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. 3.6 Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict-prone counties. 3.7 Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought preparedness, recovery and resilience building initiatives. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th September 2023. Administrative Unit Vegetation Drought CategoriesRemarks Greenness County Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month as month as values at 30th at 27th (3-month) Aug Sept 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 2023 2023 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit 10 Extreme vegetation deficit Baringo County 49.08 41.6 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness in September Central 69.64 68.57 2023 but the situation has started deteriorating, with some sub- North 59.75 52.43 counties registering moderate vegetation deficit. South 52.14 42.8 Ravine 74.16 67.8 Mogotio 43.44 28.89 Tiaty 37.02 30.95 Mandera County 44.39 54.14 The county recorded an improvement from normal vegetation Lafey 42.24 48.41 greenness in August to above normal vegetation greenness in the North 38.34 49.65 September 2023. Banissa 28.69 41.51 West 34.58 45.62 South 66.22 74.6 East 60.75 69.76 Turkana County 37.71 32.52 The county recorded deterioration in vegetation greenness at East 27.49 23.34 moderate vegetation in September from normal vegetation South 35.03 28.31 greenness in August. The condition in Turkana East, South and Loima 42.3 36 North has started worsening. Central 51.59 49.99 West 43.29 35.06 North 33.93 30.48 Marsabit County 49.26 49.06 The county remained stable (normal vegetation greenness) in Laisamis 45.33 42.15 September compared to the previous month. Moyale 40.92 44.01 North Horr 52.06 52.95 Saku 76.98 72.24 Wajir County 60.11 59.46 The county recorded stability in vegetation at above normal Tarbaj 57.34 66.42 vegetation greenness in September compared to the previous North 52.18 57.63 month. South 48.76 52.42 West 72.58 75.09 Eldas 63.29 66.42 East 44.92 49.96 Samburu County 28.77 24.37 The county recorded a worsening trend with a moderate vegetation East 26.93 24.86 greenness in September. North 27.99 22.27 West 39.1 29.68 Garissa County 45.29 47.35 The county experienced normal vegetation greenness in September Balambala 25.91 24.73 compared to previous month. However, Balambala, Garissa Township 32.35 32.67 Township, Ijara and Fafi showed moderate vegetation deficit. Ijara 39.33 44.72 Fafi 37.13 39.75 Lagdera 76.73 80.69 Dadaab 56.05 53.72 Isiolo County 55.84 62.19 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness North 50.13 57.05 compared to previous months South 64.57 70.05 Tana River County 40.52 40.2 The county remained stable in normal vegetation greenness, except Bura 34.82 32.84 Bura Sub- County that recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Galole 43.17 42.68 Garsen 43.69 44.9 Kajiado County 32.98 35.46 The county recorded a slight improvement in vegetation greenness East 47.2 30.99 from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness in North 42.01 28.93 September compared to previous months. West 49.34 Kacheliba 41 29.2 Kapenguria 55.86 47.75 Pokot South 67.51 67.06 Sigor 50.29 40.18 Embu County 56.58 70.89 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the Manyatta 59.08 86.4 month under review. Mbeere North 62.18 70.57 County 56.8 54.07 The County recorded stability in vegetation cover at above normal Kitui Central 78.09 74.48 vegetation greenness. Kitui East 81.04 74.22 Kitui Rural 76.83 74.78 Kitui South 52.32 51.61 Kitui West 53.27 52.34 Mwingi Central 62.48 55.88 Mwingi North 38.41 36.35 Mwingi West 45.16 47.29 Makueni County 59.91 60.45 Kaiti 82.39 88.99 Kibwezi East 42.2 41.32 Kibwezi West 53.23 51.38 The county recorded stability in vegetation condition at above Kilome 63.19 64.99 normal vegetation greenness in September compared to August. Makueni 73.08 74.02 Mbooni 82.91 87.67 County 63.8 59.55 The county recorded stability in vegetation condition at above Buuri 61.88 59.9 normal vegetation greenness in August. Central Imenti 69.64 71.29 Igembe Central 69.91 63.27 Igembe North 54.12 49.31 Igembe South 72.14 64.01 North Imenti 74.77 74.55 South Imenti 72.23 73.11 Tigania East 55.69 46.91 Tigania West 56.74 49.06 County 64.96 65.87 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation Nyeri Kieni 62.15 57.7 condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition in Mathira 63.63 70.56 September. Mukurweini 73.88 82.84 Nyeri Town 57.73 52.56 Othaya 67.41 82.17 Tetu 77.67 84.09 County 51.45 49.62 The county recorded Normal vegetation green in September Ganze 48.95 44.25 compared to above vegetation greenness during the month of Kilifi Kaloleni 64.73 59.21 August. Kilifi North 58.45 57.81 Kilifi South 57.48 57.91 Magarini 48.72 48.14 Malindi 62.9 61.8 Rabai 60.92 60.21 Kwale County 64.3 57.57 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation Kinango 63.77 55.75 condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition in Lunga Lunga 67.82 55.95 September. Matuga 64.75 69.19 Msambweni 52.31 56.93 County 62.03 63 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation Lamu East 52.22 51.2 condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during the month. Lamu West 67.7 69.82 County 33.69 32.57 The county remained stable with moderate vegetation deficit in the Taita Taveta Mwatate 36.43 34.77 month of September when compared to previous months. Taveta 37.41 36.8 Voi 32.01 30.91 Wundanyi 25.82 23.72 Narok County 45.73 Emurua Dikirr 65.54 62.21 The county and all its sub counties recorded Normal vegetation Kilgoris 49.26 40.91 deficit, except for Emurua Dikirr and Narok North that recorded Narok East 53.23 40.62 above normal vegetation greenness in September. Narok North 61.53 53.98 Narok South 54.53 47.15 Narok West 53.91 43.79 County 40.72 33.17 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. West Pokot Kacheliba 29.2 21.73 Kapenguria 47.75 39.26 Pokot South 67.06 60.85 Sigor 40.18 32.48 Tharaka County 54.1 56.56 Nithi Tharaka Nithi 54.1 69.77 Th county Recorded above normal vegetation greenness ChukaIgamb 65.04 72.86 angombe Maara 64.89 46.37 Tharaka 46.53 32.52 Laikipia 35.31 24.85 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit as opposed to Laikipia East 30.99 20.26 previous months the showed normal vegetation Laikipia North 28.93 18.36 Laikipia Laikipia West 49.34 39.21 Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Nutrition Circumference) Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15).The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 6: Drought Phase Classification