November 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview Impacts of the October-December short rains season, which is characterised by an El Nio phenomenon and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, have been realised in all Arid and Semi- Arid (ASAL) counties. Based on the drought phase classification, all the 23 counties1 reported normal conditions in November. An assessment of the impact of 2023 March-May Long Rains season on food and nutrition security projected that the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance during the October 2023 to January 2024 period would drop to 1.5 million from 2.8 million in July due to good performance of the Short Rains season. However, the negative effects of the enhanced rainfall continue to undermine food and nutrition security situation following the flooding reported in various ASAL counties. The situation is further compounded by destruction of road and communication network, which has limited the flow of food and other essential commodities in local markets. Figure 1 shows the drought phase classification in November 2023. Figure 1: Drought phase classification in November 2023 1 Samburu, Laik ipia, Taita Taveta Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Marsabit, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Tana River, Turkana, Kajiado, West Pokot and Isiolo 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 November 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the November 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several areas in ASAL counties received above average rainfall due to El Nino conditions that continued with high intensity in various parts. The Southeast Marginal Agriculture counties - Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui - received the highest rainfall amounts in November ranging between 200 to 1,000mm. The Pastoral Northeast counties, which include Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and Garissa, also received high amounts of rainfall ranging between 300 to 400mm. Pastoral Northwest counties (Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu) received high rainfall amounts ranging between 100 to 300mm. However, some parts of Turkana County did not receive any rainfall. The Agropastoral cluster, including Figure 2: November 2023 Rainfall Performance Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot, received considerable good rainfall amounts ranging between 100 to 300mm while the Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties - Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu - received relatively high amounts of rainfall ranging between 101 to 500mm as shown Figure 2. 1.1.2 December 2023 Rainfall Outlook The forecast for the Pastoral Northeast livelihhod zone region comprising Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa counties indicates probability of near-avaerage to above- average rainfall. Parts of Southeast Marginal Agriculture zone, which includes Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi counties, are forecasted to experience above-average rainfall while Agro-pastoral livelihood zone counties (Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and Baringo) are expected to experience above-average rainfall. The forecast for Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties - Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale - indicates above-average rainfall, while the Pastoral Northwest region (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) is projected to receive near- average to above-average rainfall, with the eastern parts of Marsabit, northern Samburu and the entire Turkana County set to experience near-average rainfall. Figure 3 shows rainfall forecast for December 2023. Figure 3: December 2023 rainfall forecast. 1.1.3 Impact of Floods Most ASAL counties, including Isiolo, Samburu, Wajir, Garissa, Mandera and Tana River, experienced heavy flooding. Out of 160 casualties in the country as at early December, two thirds were reported in ASAL counties, especially Wajir, Mandera, Tana River, Isiolo and Garissa. Flooding in Garissa and Tana River counties resulted in displacement of households, property damage and destruction of infrastructure such as roads and health facilities. For instance, sections of critical roads such as the Garissa - Modogashe road and the main road linking Hola in Tana River and Garissa were washed away, curtailing transport and supply of essential commodities. Floods also disrupted the movement of goods to Wajir and Mandera counties, leading to hike in commodity prices. 1.2 Vegetation Condition The enhanced rainfall in November continued to improve vegetation condition as regeneration is noted across ASAL counties. Consequently, none of the ASAL counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Only one county - Taita Taveta recorded overall Moderate vegetation deficit, thus requiring close monitoring and contingency planning. A few sub-counties in three more counties also registered moderate deficit. These are Balambala and Township in Garissa, Bura in Tana River and Kajiado South. Seven counties, including Samburu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Kitui, Tana River, Garissa and Kilifi, recorded Normal vegetation greenness while the remaining 15 ASAL counties recorded above-normal vegetation greenness. These are Turkana, West Pokot, Baringo, Narok, Nyeri, Makueni, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Lamu and Kwale. Generally, the vegetation condition in November showed great improvement compared to October as illustrated in Fig 4. Figure 4: Vegetation Conditions trends for October and November 2023 A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of November 2023 disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in November 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) vegetation deficit Moderate (1) (8) vegetation Taita Taveta Garissa (Balambala, Township), Tana River (Bura), Kajiado deficit (South), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Voi, Wundanyi, Taveta) Normal (6) (29) vegetation Samburu Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East, South, North), Wajir (South, greenness Tana River West), Samburu (East, West), Garissa (Fafi, Daadab), Laikipia Laikipia (East, North, West), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Kitui (Mwingi North, Mwingi Central, Kitui West, Kitui South), Makueni Garissa (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West), Nyeri (Nyeri Town), Kilifi Kilifi (Kaloleni, Kilifi South, Magarini, Malindi), Kwale (Kinango), Narok (Kilgoris, East, North) Above (16) (76) normal Baringo Mandera Baringo (Central, North, South, Ravine, Tiaty), Mandera (South, Vegetation Turkana North, East, Lafey, Banissa, West), Turkana (Loima, Central, greenness Marsabit West), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku, Wajir Wajir (Tarbaj, North, Eldas, East), Samburu (North) Isiolo Garissa (Ijara, Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River Kajiado (Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (Central, East, North, West), Tharaka Tharaka Nithi Nithi (Chuka, Maara), West Pokot: (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West Pokot Pokot South, Sigor), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere, North, South, Embu Runyenjes), Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui rural, Mwingi Makueni West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru ( Buuri, Meru Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, Nyeri North Imenti, South Imenti Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri Kwale (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Lamu Rabai), Kwale (Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (East, Narok West) Narok (West, South, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition About 82 of ASAL counties recorded good pasture condition while the rest posted fair condition. The browse condition was good in 87 of counties and fair in the rest as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse conditions are normal as compared to normal years and compared to October. The ongoing Short Rains season has led to full growth of pasture and browse. Table 2: Pasture and browse condition - November 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Embu Kajiado Baringo Kajiado Garissa Makueni Embu Makueni Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Garissa Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Isiolo Kitui Kilifi Kwale Kitui Laikipia Kwale Marsabit Lamu Mandera Marsabit Nyeri Mandera Meru Nyeri Narok Meru Samburu Narok Tana River Samburu Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir Turkana West Pokot Wajir 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Generally, the body condition of most livestock species is above normal compared to similar periods during a normal year. This is attributable to continued improvement in vegetation condition. The current body condition for cattle was good at 61 and fair at 39 in ASAL counties. Body condition for goats was good at 74 and fair at 26 in the arid and semi- arid counties. The good performance of the ongoing rains will lead to further improvement of livestock body conditions as pasture and browse conditions improve further. Table 3 shows livestock body condition in November. Table 3: Livestock body condition in November 2023 Cattle Goats Baringo Embu Garissa Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kajiado Embu Kajiado Isiolo Kitui Isiolo Kitui Kwale Makueni Kilifi Laikipia Lamu Narok Kwale Makueni Marsabit Tharaka Laikipia Narok Mandera Nithi Lamu Tharaka Nithi Meru Marsabit Turkana Nyeri Mandera Tana River Nyeri Taita Samburu Taveta Tana River Wajir Taita Taveta West Pokot Turkana 1.3.3 Milk production The month of November noted an increase in the trend of milk production compared to October in majority of the counties. However, three counties - Garissa, Meru and Kajiado which showed a worsening trend. On the other hand, Baringo, Embu, Isiolo, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir counties above normal range milk production levels. However, its worth noting that milk production in 11 ASAL counties is below the average for a normal year due to low livestock numbers. These are Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi , Kwale, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River and West Pokot. Table 4 shows detailed milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties. Table 4: Milk production - November 2023 Milk Baringo Kitui Garissa Baringo Kwale Garissa Production Embu Laikipia Kajiado Embu Laikipia Kajiado Isiolo Kilifi Isiolo Narok Meru Lamu Kwale Kilifi Wajir Makueni Marsabit Kitui West Mandera Meru Lamu Pokot Narok Nyeri Makueni Tharaka Samburu Mandera Nithi Taita Taveta Marsabit Turkana Tana River Nyeri Wajir West Pokot Samburu 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot counties. These include unconfirmed cases of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) and Foot and Mouth diseases. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Most of the ASAL counties (91) recorded above-average cattle prices during the month of November. No county recorded below long-term average prices compared to similar periods during a normal year. An improving trend was observed in Embu, Garissa, Kwale, Meru, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir and West Pokot counties. However, Narok and Nyeri counties recorded a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5 below. Table 5: Cattle prices in November 2023 Cattle Baringo Nyeri Embu Baringo Narok prices Embu Taita Taveta Garissa Isiolo Nyeri Garissa Kwale Kajiado Isiolo Meru Kilifi Kajiado Samburu Kitui Kilifi Tana River Laikipia Kitui Tharaka Lamu Kwale Nithi Makueni Laikipia Turkana Mandera Lamu Wajir Marsabit Makueni West Pokot Taita- Mandera Taveta Narok 1.3.6 Goat prices All of the counties reported prices above the long-term average. Stability was observed in market prices of goats across most ASAL counties, with a tendency towards improvement during the month under review. The good body condition was driven by availability of browse and water. However, prices in Kajiado declined due to large volumes of goats presented in markets. Table 6: Goat prices in November 2023 Goat Baringo, Garissa, Baringo Makueni Kajiado Embu, Kitui, Garissa Meru Prices Isiolo, Kwale, Isiolo Taita Taveta Kajiado, Kilifi, West Pokot Laikipia, Lamu, Nyeri Laikipia Narok, Makueni, Tana River Mandera, Embu Marsabit, Meru, Narok Kilifi Nyeri, Samburu, Samburu Lamu Taita Taveta, Tharaka - Kwale Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, 1.4 Crop Production Crop production is mainly practiced in the Agropastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture and Southeast marginal agriculture clusters. The current status of crop production is indicated in Table 7. Table 7: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production South East Kitui Most farmers in all the livelihood zones have planted maize crop. Marginal Planted cassava crop recorded good condition. Agriculture Harvesting of vegetables was also recorded and supply in markets remained high. Agropastoral Baringo Farmers in the irrigated cropping livelihood zone were harvesting green grams and other short-term crops. Most farmers in the Agro- pastoral livelihood zone also planted tomatoes, millet and sorghum. Laikipia The main activity on farms across the county was planting and weeding for early grown crops. Crops were at different stages and exhibiting good condition. Narok Majority of crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood zones were past knee-high stages for maize, while beans were in fair-to-good condition. West The main crops planted were beans and potatoes, which were Pokot planted in the Mixed Farming and Agropastoral zones. Beans were at pod formation stage, with harvests expected beginning December. 1.4.1 Maize prices Above long-term average maize prices were recorded in 22 counties. However, 13 counties, including Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Baringo, Kilifi, Lamu, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Meru, Kitui, Kwale and Laikipia, recorded a stable trend as result of ongoing harvests. Slight improvement was recorded compared to the previous months as illustrated in Table 8. The trend observed in November could be attributed to improved maize availability occasioned by ongoing harvesting within the ASALs and other adjacent counties, coupled with external and cross-border imports. The counties with a worsening trend are among those that experienced floods, affecting markets. Table 8: Maize prices in November 2023 Maize Baringo Mandera Lamu Embu Isiolo Garissa Prices Embu Narok Kajiado Marsabit Garissa Nyeri Mandera Tana River Isiolo Samburu Baringo Wajir Kajiado Taita Taveta Kilifi Kilifi West Pokot Lamu Kitui Makueni Kwale Tharaka Laikipia Nithi Makueni Turkana Nyeri Meru Marsabit Kitui Meru Kwale Narok Laikipia 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Household distance to water sources in 22 counties is currently below long term average and on an improving trend in 20 counties. In November, distance to water sources in arid counties was between 1.6 and 7.7 kilometres, with Isiolo recording the lowest while Mandera reported the highest distances. On the other hand, distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 0.5 and 4.6 kilometres, with Meru recording lowest and Makueni recording highest distances. The trend in distances covered by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources in November 2023 Above At Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening LTA LTA Distance from Wajir Baringo Baringo Kwale households to Embu Embu Mandera main water Garissa Garissa Narok sources Isiolo Isiolo Kajiado Kajiado Kilifi Kilifi Kitui Kitui Kwale Laikipia Laikipia Lamu Lamu Makueni Makueni Marsabit Mandera Meru Marsabit Nyeri Meru Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri Tana River Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita Turkana Taveta Wajir Tana River West Pokot 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock distance to water sources in 18 counties is currently below long term average and on an improving trend in 21 counties. Only Laikipia County registered above long term average distances while Kwale and Mandera reported a stable trend as shown in Table 10. The average distance traveled by livestock from grazing areas to water points in arid counties ranged from 2.7 to 10.9 kilometres, with Isiolo reporting the shortest distance and Mandera the longest. The distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 0.6 and 6.1 kilometers, with Meru County recording the lowest and Baringo the highest distance. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources in November 2023 Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsen LTA LTA ing Distance Laikipia Garissa Baringo Baringo Kwale from Narok Embu Embu Mander livestock Taita Isiolo Garissa a grazing Taveta Kajiado Isiolo area to West Kilifi Kajiado main water Pokot Kitui Kilifi sources Kwale Kitui Makueni Lamu Marsabit Makueni Meru Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Tana River Narok Tharaka Nyeri Nithi Samburu Wajir Tana River 1.6 Terms of Trade About 39 of ASAL counties, including Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Garissa, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Lamu, Wajir and Makueni, recorded below long-term average Terms of Trade, indicating less favorable terms of trade. However, most of these counties recorded an improving trend, Garissa, Kwale, Tana River and Wajir registering a worsening state as illustrated in Table 11. The notable high cereal prices in most of the counties continue to undermine household purchasing power. Table 11: Terms of Trade in November 2023 Terms of Isiolo, Kilifi, Kitui Baringo, Baringo, Isiolo, Kitui, Kajiado Garissa Trade Narok, Tharaka Kwale Embu, Laikipia, Marsabit, Makueni Kwale Nithi, Turkana, Laikipia Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Meru Tana River West Pokot Samburu Garissa, Samburu, Mander Wajir Marsabit, Tana River Nyeri, Taita Tharaka Nithi, a Mandera Meru Taveta Turkana, Lamu, Taita Lamu, Wajir Taveta,West Pokot, Makueni Embu, Kilifi 1.7 Health and Nutrition The health and nutrition situation in majority of the Asals counties was above the long-term average, with only eight counties on a worsening trend. These include Garissa, Makueni, Kwale, Kilifi, Nyeri, Meru, Baringo and Tharaka Nithi. The residual effects of previous failed seasons continue to lead to poor nutrition status in these counties. The local livelihoods are still in recovery mode. The situation is further affected by low milk availability at household level due to reduced livestock numbers and current extreme weather variability as evidenced by Elnino conditions. The nutrition status is as shown in Table 12. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (based on middle upper arm circumference - MUAC-) in November 2023 Baringo Kajiado Embu Embu Isiolo Garissa Garissa Marsabit Narok Kajiado Makueni MUAC Kilifi Narok Samburu Kitui Kwale Kitui Samburu Taita Taveta Laikipia Kilifi Laikipia Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Lamu Nyeri Kwale Wajir Mandera Marsabit Meru Makueni West Pokot Tana- Baringo Meru Meru River Tharaka- Nyeri Lamu Turkana Nithi Tana River Taita Taveta Wajir 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 counties are classified at the Normal drought phase. Nine of the counties continue to show an improving trend as illustrated in Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification in November 2023 Drought Trend Status Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Embu, Isiolo, Kitui, Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Marsabit, Kwale, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Samburu, Mandera, Nyeri, Tana River, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, West Pokot Alert - - - Alarm - - - Emergency - - - Recovery - - - 3.0 Recommendations 1. Food and safety nets: Provision of food assistance and shock-responsive cash transfers targeting households affected by floods. 2. Livestock sector: Vaccination against diseases associated with wet conditions such as Rift Valley Fever; Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. 3. Water sector: Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; Provision of water treatment tabs; and Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof water harvesting. 4. Health and nutrition sector: Support for hygiene and sanitation promotion; Provision of supplies for severe acute malnutrition (Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food - RUTF) and supplies for moderate acute malnutrition (Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food-RUSF). 5. Education sector: Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. 6. Peace and security sector: Facilitating intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. 7. Coordination: Support to County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate El-Nino response activities. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th November 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS UNIT GREENNESS COUNTY Sub VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category County month month values as at as at (3- 29th 26th month) Oct Nov 50 Vegetation greenness 2023 2023 above normal 35 - Normal vegetation 50 greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit 10 Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 52.07 60.23 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in 73.32 71.64 November. Mogotio maintained normal vegetation Central greenness. North 61.8 67.51 South 54.32 61.33 Ravine 68.81 62.19 Mogotio 39.24 42.35 Tiaty 44.35 59.92 MANDERA County 60.57 73.83 The county remained stable with above normal vegetation Lafey 54.54 71.43 greenness compared October. North 58.58 71.92 Banissa 56.11 67.04 West 56.01 72.45 South 73.54 84.95 East 63.4 65.57 TURKANA County 35.4 50.82 During the month under review, the county recorded East 28.07 37.8 improved to above-normal vegetation greenness from South 29.72 41.24 normal vegetation greenness. Loima 41.47 60.32 Central 47.81 50.72 West 38.85 64.19 North 32.42 47.27 MARSABI County 50.08 65.48 The county recorded above-normal vegetation greenness in T Laisamis 43.28 58.9 November, which was stable compared to October. Moyale 43.58 57.49 North Horr 54.53 70.31 Saku 68.62 81.79 WAJIR County 55.01 55.45 The county maintained above normal vegetation greenness Tarbaj 67.32 73.54 in November, remaining stable. North 57.41 73.14 53.42 45.28 West 47.11 45.14 Eldas 63.26 52.29 58.63 56.82 SAMBURU County 27.7 45.56 The county recorded improvement in vegetation greenness East 26.8 42.28 from moderate vegetation deficit in October to normal North 27.59 50.1 vegetation greenness during the month under review. West 31.81 43.22 GARISSA County 46.09 46.89 The county remained at normal vegetation greenness in Balambala 21.49 25.92 November. Township 30.89 29.39 56.22 66.1 Ijara Fafi 39.61 43.41 Lagdera 69.59 51.69 Dadaab 45.5 43.62 ISIOLO County 59.52 55.06 The county recorded stability in above vegetation greenness North 55.46 51.25 in November, which was stable when compared to the 65.72 60.89 previous month. TANA County 38.88 38.78 Normal vegetation deficit in November, with Bura Subcounty RIVER Bura 28.38 30.01 registering moderate vegetation greenness. Galole 39.4 37.34 Garsen 47.48 47.11 KAJIADO County 44.72 44.63 Kajiado county recorded improvement in vegetation Central 37.63 36.47 greenness from normal vegetation greenness the previous East 38.36 37.88 month to above normal vegetation greenness during the North 52.73 55.23 month under review. South 36.3 32.09 West 58.11 62.07 LAIKIPIA County 27.19 41.1 Improvement in vegetation greenness form moderate East 28.06 47.75 vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. North 20.41 37.74 39.46 44.17 THARAKA County 56.46 54.63 Above normal vegetation greenness in the month under NITHI Chuka 75.87 69.31 review compared to previous months. Maara 77.6 59.71 Tharaka 42.39 47.47 WEST County 42.91 57.97 Improvement in vegetation greenness from normal the POKOT Kacheliba 35.13 52.07 previous month to above normal vegetation greenness in Kapenguria 49.01 62.69 November. Pokot south 62.11 67.6 Sigor 40.59 59.03 EMBU County 69.41 68.88 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness Manyatta 79.56 71.18 during the month under review. Mbeere 71.5 76.35 Mbeere 60.36 62.09 Runyenjes 87.22 74.85 County 71.91 44.07 The county deteriorated to normal vegetation greenness Kitui central 62.29 60.22 from above normal vegetation greenness during the month Kitui east 73.16 50.95 under review. KITUI Kitui rural 48.81 59.92 Kitui south 54.99 41.46 Kitui west 47.9 47.46 Mwingi 35.33 39.07 Mwingi 55.41 42.27 Mwingi west 71.91 52.18 MAKUENI County 59.84 50.32 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in Kaiti 87.62 75.76 November, which was stable compared to October. Kibwezi east 41.05 35.76 Kibwezi 50.05 45.4 Kilome 65.39 57.04 Makueni 73.83 58.21 Mbooni 86.55 66.38 County 60.0 60.49 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness Buuri 50.75 52.6 across all the sub-counties. Central 56.66 65.05 Igembe 72.73 64.63 MERU Igembe 62.32 63.75 Igembe 55.11 62.81 North Imenti 63.39 65.05 South 73.79 63.93 Tigania east 79.88 58.82 Tigania west 53.62 58.99 County 64.78 58.4 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in NYERI Kieni 55.22 54.3 November. Mathira 73.09 58.61 Mukurweini 80.53 62.89 Nyeri town 51.46 48.76 Othaya 85.78 72.98 Tetu 81.66 67.42 County 41.72 39.98 The county retained Normal vegetation greenness in Ganze 32.89 33.15 November. However, Ganze Sub-county remained the same KILIFI Kaloleni 47.16 46.43 at moderate vegetation deficit. Kilifi north 53.66 51.96 Kilifi south 53.78 48.46 Magarini 41.52 39.4 Malindi 53.29 47.81 Rabai 54.33 50.52 County 51.16 51.67 Above normal vegetation greenness in November, which was KWALE Kinango 46.09 43.99 stable compared to the previous month. Lunga 51.34 60.77 Lunga Matuga 70.57 65.54 Msambweni 60.64 63.91 LAMU County 70.39 74.97 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in Lamu east 54.62 61.77 vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness Lamu west 79.51 82.6 in November. TAITA County 29.22 26.75 The county retained moderate vegetation deficit in TAVETA Mwatate 29.05 26.18 November. Taveta 30.93 25.6 Voi 28.78 27.42 Wundanyi 26.64 26.44 County 56.7 64.27 Above normal vegetation greenness in November when Emurua 75.88 81.97 compared to the last month of October NAROK Dikirr Kilgoris 57.84 68.91 Narok east 43.35 47.76 Narok north 46.37 45.91 Narok south 58.43 64.52 Narok west 63.92 76.62 Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Overview of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). 1. NORMAL indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental indicators indicators return to fluctuate outside seasonal norms expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are outside production indicators normal ranges fluctuate outside seasonal ranges Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification