May 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Onset of the long rains season was late as most ASAL counties did not receive rainfall from the second and third week of March when the March-April-May (MAM) season normally begins. During the month of April, depressed rainfall was experienced over most parts of the ASAL region with large areas in counties such as Turkana, Marsabit, Garissa, Tana river, Kilifi, Lamu, Laikipia and Nyeri (Kieni) receiving less than 50 percent of average amounts in April. Some parts of Mandera and Taita taveta received slightly above normal rains of between 75-100 percent of average amounts as shown in Figure 1.Spatio-temporal rainfall distribution was generally uneven and poor across the ASAL counties. Figure Rainfall performance as percentage of normal. Rainfall Forecast According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), rainfall is expected to continue during the month of May 2021.Counties in North-western Region including Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu are likely to receive rainfall characterized with near to slightly above average rainfall. Occasional rainfall is likely to occur during the second half of the month. The expected total rainfall amounts are likely to be near the long-term average for the region. North-eastern Region including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo will receive Occasional rainfall that is expected at the beginning of May. The rainfall is however likely to reduce in the third to fourth week as the rainy season comes to cessation period. The expected rainfall amounts are likely to be near the long-term average for the month of May. South-eastern Lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, and Taita Taveta): Occasional rainfall is expected during the first half of the month. It is however expected to reduce in the third to fourth week as the rainy season ceases. The rainfall amounts are likely to be near to below the long-term average for the month of May. The Coastal Strip (Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale): is expected to receive occasional rainfall in May. The expected rainfall amounts are likely to be below the long-term average. May marks the peak of the Long rains season in the Coastal Strip. Highlands East of the Rift Valley and Central Kenya (Nyeri, Meru, Embu, and Tharaka Nithi): Above average rainfall is expected during the first half of the month. However occasional dry spells are likely especially during the Figure 1.Rainfall forecast for May 2021 second half of the forecast period. The rainfall amounts are likely to be above the long-term average for the region. Figure 2 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in April 2020 with that in April 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of April 2020. Figure 2: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2020 and April 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) April Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) April 2020 2021 As at the end of April 2021 counties with the highest vegetation deficit were, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, and Kilifi. The five counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in April 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of April 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Ganze, Kaloleni and Kilifi south in Kilifi County recorded the lowest VCI values with the three sub counties currently falling in the severe deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in April 2021. Generally, the negative VCI trends observed in many ASAL areas point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of April. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2021 Category C ounty Sub Counties (No) Severe Ganze, Kaloleni and Kilifi South (Kilifi) vegetation deficit (2) Moderate Kilifi (32) vegetation deficit Wajir Mogotio(Baringo) Banissa, East, LafeyNorth Garissa (Mandera),Laisaimis N. Horr(Marsabit) Isiolo East,Eldas,South West(Wajir) East(Samburu) Balambala,Daadab,Fafi,Lagdera Dujis (Garissa) North South(Isiolo) Bura Galoleni (Tana River) Mandera Mwingi central,Mingi North,Mwingi West Marsabit South(Kitui) M agarini, Malindi, Kilifi-North Rabai (Kilifi) Normal Baringo (30) vegetation Tharaka Nithi Central Elda maravine, South, North Tiaty (Baringo) greenness Turkana South, West (Mandera) East North (Turkana) West Pokot Moyale Saku(Marsabit) North Tarbaj(Wajir) Laikipia North South(Samburu) Ijara(Garissa) Kwale Garsaen(Tana River) East,North West(Laikipia) Lamu Tharaka(Tharaka Nithi) Kacheliba Sigor(West Pokot) S amburu East Rural(Kitui) Igembe Central, Igembe North Igembe South, Tigania East Tigania West(Meru) Kinango Lungalunga(Kwale) East West(Lamu) Voi(T.Taveta) Vegetation Nyeri ( 4 9)Central, Loima, South West (Turkana) greenness above Meru North Central,East, North,South West(Kajiado) normal Taita Taveta Chulga Maara(Tharaka Nithi) Narok Kapenguria Pokot south(West pokot) Makueni M anyatta, Mbeere south Runyenjes(Embu) Embu C e ntral(Kitui) Kaiti,Kibwezi East,Kibwezi West Nyeri(Kieni) Kilome,Makueni Mbooni(Makueni) Kajiado. Buuri, Central Imenti,North Imenti South Imenti(Meru) Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Town, Othaya Tetu(Nyeri)Matuga, Msambweni(Kwale)MwatateTaveta(Taita Taveta) East, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, North, South West (Narok) Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently poor compared to normal period. The condition is as result of decrease in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality coupled with increase in distances covered by livestock in search of pasture and water. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair and poor conditions as shown in Table 1. The current pasture and browse condition were attributed to the little amount of rainfall received in the 2020 October to December short rain season which did not support satisfactory regeneration of pasture and browse. The delayed onset of this years March-April-May long rains and depressed rains received so far is another factor for the poor pasture and browse condition. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, April 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Embu Kajiado Baringo Embu Kajiado Garissa Kitui. Taita Taveta Garissa Kitui Taita Taveta Isiolo Kwale Isiolo Kwale Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Makueni Kilifi. Laikipia Laikipia Marsabit Lamu Makueni Lamu Narok Marsabit Mandera Mandera Samburu West-Pokot Narok Wajir Tana River Turkana Samburu West-Pokot Tharaka Nithi Nyeri (Kieni) Tana-River Turkana Wajir Nyeri (Kieni) Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable compared to last month due to the long trekking distances in search of pasture and water coupled with reduction in pasture and browse quantity and quality. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as poor and fair as shown in Table 2. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, April 2021 Cattle Goats Kilifi Baringo Embu Garissa Baringo Embu Mandera Garissa Kajiado Kilifi Isiolo Kajiado Wajir Isiolo Taita Taveta Wajir Kitui Taita Taveta Turkana Kitui Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kwale Tharaka Nithi Kwale Laikipia Laikipia Lamu Lamu Makueni Makueni Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Narok Narok Samburu Nyeri (Kieni) Tana-River Samburu West-Pokot Tana-River Nyeri (Kieni) West-Pokot Milk production In comparison to the long-term average; current milk production in six counties is above LTA while in eight counties which includes: Baringo, Kajiado, Isiolo, Kilifi, Laikipia, Nyeri and Tharaka Nithi the current amount is below LTA. The below normal milk production is attributed to water scarcity and inadequate forage. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 3.0. Table 3.0: Milk production, April 2021 Above At LTA Below LTA Improvi Stable Worsening LTA ng Milk Embu Garissa Baringo Baringo Embu Isiolo Productio Makueni Kitui Isiolo Makueni Garissa Kilifi n Narok Lamu Kajiado Mandera Kajiado Laikipia Taita Mandera Kilifi Samburu Kitui Lamu Taveta Samburu Laikipia Taita- Narok Marsabit West Tana Marsabit Taveta Nyeri Tharaka Pokot River Nyeri Nithi Wajir Tharaka Turkana Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable or worsening owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is on a downward trend as illustrated in Table 4. However, in spite of the recorded stability in cattle price during the period under review, the prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of April in about 65 percent of the ASAL counties. Mandera and Marsabit cattle prices decreased by 27 and 5 percent as compared to the average mean as shown in Table 4. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, April 2021 or Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Baringo Kajiado Mandera Embu Baringo Lamu Prices Embu Nyeri Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Mandera Garissa Taita Turkana Kitui Kajiado Narok Isiolo Taveta Makueni Kilifi Tharaka Kilifi Marsabit Laikipia Nithi Kitui Samburu Nyeri Laikipia Taita West-Pokot Lamu Taveta Turkana Makueni Tana River West-Pokot Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of April , goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in counties such as Marsabit, Baringo and Mandera that were below the three-year average price which was attributed to the deterioration in body condition of the goats owing to poor pasture and browse. Table 5.0: Goat prices, April 2021 or Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Goat Embu Garissa Baringo Kitui Baringo Tharaka Nithi Prices Kajiado Isiolo Mandera Kwale Embu Turkana Kilifi Lamu Marsabit Makueni Garissa Kitui Samburu Turkana Narok Isiolo Kwale Wajir Nyeri Samburu Kajiado Laikipia Tana River Kilifi Makueni Laikipia Narok Lamu Taita Taveta Mandera Tana River Marsabit Tharaka Nyeri Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Wajir West Pokot March to May (MAM) long rains season are on-going across the marginal agricultural areas and most crops planted are at germination stage in poor condition due to moisture stress as result of depressed rains. The late onset of the MAM rainfall season is likely to impact negatively on agricultural activities in most semi-arid counties. Consequently, farmers have been advised to plant fast-maturing crops and drought tolerant crops in areas expected to receive below-average rainfall. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in April as compared to the previous month. As demonstrated in Table 6, the current maize prices are largely favourable with 16 counties recording prices that are below or close LTA. Table 6.0: Maize prices, April 2021 Indicato Current status Trend r Above LTA Atclose to Below Improving Stable Worsenin LTA LTA g Maize Garissa Baringo Embu Embu Baringo Prices Kwale Isiolo Kajiado Narok Garissa Mandera Kitui Kilifi Nyeri Isiolo Marsabit Makueni Laikipia Tana river Kajiado Taita Taveta Nyeri Lamu West Kilifi Wajir Samburu Narok Pokot Kitui Tharaka- Tana Kwale Nithi River Laikipia Turkana West- Lamu Pokot Makueni Mandera Marsabit Tharaka- Access to water for households Average distances to water for households slightly reduced in April in more counties as compared to the previous month. For instance, household distances improved in 14 counties while five counties recorded long trekking distances as compared to normal. Counties like Turkana and Isiolo recorded slight improvement as compared to previous month however the distances are still above long-term average. The slight improvement in the average distances to water points for households was occasioned by the light showers received during the month of April 2020 however the delayed short rains onset of the MAM season is the reason behind the long trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 7. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, April 2021. Above LTA At LTA Below Improvin Stable Worseni LTA g ng Distance Turkana Kilifi Embu Kilifi Baringo from Embu Mandera Kitui Garissa Narok Kajiado households Isiolo Narok Isiolo West-Pokot Laikipia to main Kajiado Tana Lamu Kitui Turkana Lamu water Laikipia River Kwale Marsabit sources Nyeri Taita- Makueni Tharaka- Samburu Taveta Tana Mandera Nithi Baringo River Nyeri Garissa Tharaka Samburu Kwale Nithi Taita Marsabit Makueni Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Tana Wajir River West-Pokot Tharaka Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 8. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas slightly improved in all counties except in Kajiado and Laikipia. In addition, access to water for livestock in 14 counties was above long- term average attributed to the poor performance of the short rains of October, November, December (OND) and depressed rains received during the month of April 2021 as shown in Table 8.0. Table 8.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, April 2021 Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsenin LTA g Distance Baringo Makuen Kilifi Embu Baringo Kajiado from Embu i Kitui Garissa Isiolo Kwale livestock Garissa Tana Mandera Kilifi Narok Laikipia grazing area Isiolo River Taita Taveta Kitui Turkana Marsabit to main Kajiado Tharaka Lamu West-Pokot water Kwale Nithi Makueni sources Laikipia Wajir Mandera Lamu Nyeri Marsabit Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri Tana River Samburu Tharaka Turkana Nithi West- Wajir pokot Terms of trade Table 9 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all but three counties ToT values are above the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is stable as compared to the previous month for instance, in Kajiado, Narok, Tana River ,Embu, Wajir, Narok and Isiolo ,the current ToT are higher than the 2016 - 2020 average for March by 46, 40, 34, 35 percent respectively. The relatively favorable situation for livestock keepers in these ASAL counties was attributed to high goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable. On the other hand, terms of trade were unfavorable in Kwale, Nyeri and Mandera counties where the current ToT were lower than the long-term average for March by 19, 17, and 6 percent respectively. The poor terms of trade in the three counties were due to decrease in the goat prices as a result of a downward shift in the body condition of goats, increase in volumes of livestock offered for sale and also a general increase in maize prices. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, April 2021 or Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Terms Baringo Garissa Kwale Garissa Isiolo Baringo of trade Embu Taita Taveta Mandera Kitui Kilifi Embu (ToT) Isiolo Nyeri Makueni Laikipia Kajiado Kajiado Marsabit Lamu Kwale Kilifi Samburu Mandera Nyeri Kitui Narok Tharaka Laikipia Taita Nithi Lamu Taveta West-Pokot Makueni Tana Marsabit River River West- Pokot Health and nutrition Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. The situation in 6 ASAL counties namely; Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Marsabit, Meru and Nyeri is stable while the following (9) counties, Embu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Taita Taveta and Tharaka-Nithi are improving as compared to the previous month however 5 counties including Garissa,Mandera,Embu,Lamu and Taita taveta MUAC trend is above the long term avarage.The observed above long term negative trend in malnutrition was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production, livestock migration, fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services and reduced household purchasing power due to the unfavorable ToT which impacted on food access resulting to inadequate dietary intake. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), April 2021 Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Embu Isiolo Baringo Embu Isiolo Baringo Garissa Kilifi Kajiado Kitui Kajiado Garissa MUAC Lamu Kwale Laikipia Kwale Kilifi Narok Mandera Makueni Nyeri Laikipia Marsabit Samburu Taita- Marsabit Samburu Lamu Meru Tana river Taveta Meru Tana river Makueni Nyeri Turkana Narok Turkana Mandera Wajir Tharaka- Wajir Taita West Nithi West pokot Taveta pokot Kitui Tharaka- N ithi 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 11 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of April 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, three (3) counties; Mandera, Marsabit and Turkana are in the alarm drought phase, while ten (10) counties namely Garissa, Kilifi, Lamu, Tana River, Baringo, Isiolo, Kitui, Samburu, Laikipia and Wajir are in alert drought stage. During the month under review, six (6) counties reported a worsening trend with nine (9) counties recording a stable trend. The prevailing drought situation is mainly attributed to the delayed onset of the March to May long rains. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, April 2021 Drought status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Normal Nyeri Embu Kwale West Pokot Kajiado Meru Makueni Narok Tharaka Nithi Alert Garissa Laikipia Baringo Kilifi, Isiolo Lamu Kitui Tana River Samburu Alarm Mandera Marsabit, Turkana Recovery 3 Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th April 2021 35 - Normal vegetation greenness BARINGO County 42.00 40.09 The entire county and its sub counties recorded normal Central 45.08 40.81 vegetation greenness in the month of April. This is attributed Eldama 44.04 43.51 to some light showers from the MAM rainfall season onset. Mogotio 35.66 34.9 However, Mogotio sub county has moderate vegetation North 39.58 36.17 deficit. South 39.51 41.17 Tiaty 41.17 44.72 MANDER County 23.87 34.28 The county and its sub counties are in moderate deficit in the A Banissa 21.08 29.89 month of April. Notably, Mandera south and Mandera West M East 20.34 23.1 have Normal vegetation greenness. The onset of MAM Lafey 21.13 29.26 rainfall is already experienced in the two sub-counties. M North 23.89 32.93 M South 28.86 42.67 M West 23.61 36.88 TURKAN County 52.8 49.23 The county is in stability in VCI for the county and four of A T Central 74.84 67.75 its sub counties having recorded Above Normal vegetation T. East 40.69 37.97 greenness in the month of April. Turkana North and East T. Loima 65.62 60.58 recorded Normal vegetation greenness. T. North 40.66 36.1 T. South 55.47 55.79 T. West 59.45 56.96 MARSABI County 31.72 33.75 The county and two of its sub counties remained at moderate T Laisaimis 32.26 31 vegetation deficit band. Moyale and Saku sub-counties were Moyale 25.38 37.68 stable at normal vegetation greenness. This is due to small N. Horr 32.39 34.15 Saku warm humid micro-climate within Saku hills and MAM 43.32 36.44 seasonal onset in Moyale. WAJIR County 24.86 30.97 The county remained in Moderate vegetation deficit with W East 26.1 33.46 Wajir Eldas and Wajir West improving from Severe W. Eldas 16.47 26.08 vegetation deficit to Moderate vegetation deficit. Wajir north W. North 31.18 42.99 and Wajir Tarbaj improved from Moderate to Normal vegetation deficit. W. South 26.85 27.9 W. Tarbaj 26.17 36.17 W West 15.58 21.38 SAMBUR County 36.34 36.21 The county remained stable at Normal vegetation greenness U S East 27.87 27.91 in the month under review when compared to last month of S. North 44.53 43.82 March. Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation S. West 42.58 43.79 deficit band. ADMINISTRATIVE DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS Mar Apr 2021 50 Vegetation greenness above 2021 normal GARISSA County 28.27 29.29 The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate Balambala 23.19 22.73 vegetation deficit band with Ijara sub county maintaining Daadab 24.8 25.25 Normal vegetation greenness band. However, Ijara Fafi 29.56 29.61 subcounty showed improvement in its VCI index within its Ijara 36.7 42.25 band. Lagdera 22.52 21.71 Dujis 21.77 23.9 ISIOLO County 23.45 23.45 Stability in the vegetation greenness condition with entire I. North 23.25 24.72 county and its sub-counties falling in the moderate vegetation I. South deficit in the month of April. 23.76 21.52 TANA County 33.28 32.1 The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate RIVER Bura 25.41 25.02 vegetation condition in the month of April. Garsen remained Galole 33.19 31.92 at Normal vegetation greenness. Garsen 40.01 38.22 KAJIADO County 68.25 70.95 Stability noted across the county with all sub counties K. Central 69.8 73.43 remaining at above normal vegetation greenness conditions K. East 68.6 67.64 in the month of April. Kajiado county according to Kenya K. North 68.4 67.45 Met rainfall onset predictions received its onset rains on time, K. South 64.47 65.2 3rd dekad of March. K. West 70.29 75.72 LAIKIPIA County 38.8 38.69 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness L. East 34.76 41.6 with Laikipia East improving from moderate vegetation L. North 39.39 36.5 deficit in March to Normal vegetation greenness in the month of April. 39.65 41.4 L. West THARAK County 50.01 47.49 The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month A Chulga 68.33 66.65 under review. The situation is stable when compared to the NITHI Maara 72.56 72.58 previous month of March. Tharaka subcounty remained at Tharaka 35.91 32.25 normal vegetation greenness. WEST County 42.85 43 The vegetation greenness stabilized for both the county and POKOT Kacheliba 38.24 36.6 its sub counties recording normal condition compared to the Kapenguri previous above normal. Pokot South improved from normal 51.68 51.73 a vegetation greenness to above normal vegetation greenness, Pokot while Kapenguria remained in above normal vegetation 46.25 51.11 South greenness Sigor 41.78 42.47 EMBU County 68.82 65.05 The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the Manyatta 81.9 79.61 month of April across all the sub-counties with vegetation Mbeere greenness above normal in all parts of the county. 59.32 58.06 Mbeere 66.41 60.2 Runyenjes 84.68 82.66 ADMINISTRATIVE Mar Apr 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 2021 2021 35 - Normal vegetation greenness County 41.59 34.29 The county and most of its sub counties deteriorated to Kitui moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation 62.32 54.01 Central greenness condition. These sub-counties include; Mwingi Kitui East 44.71 37.42 North, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West and Kitui South recorded moderate deficit.. Kitui East and Kitui Rural 39.76 33.1 remained at normal vegetation deficit while Kitui central was KITUI Mwingi 28.1 24.82 stable at above normal vegetation condition. 59.16 24.82 48.08 37.76 Rural 40.05 32.51 Kitui West 64.71 51.02 County 70.39 59.42 The county and its sub counties recorded above normal Kaiti 81.45 73.55 vegetation greenness conditions. The situation is stable when MAKUEN Kibwezi the current and previous month of March are compared. 70.11 73.55 I East Kibwezi 71.43 73.55 Kilome 73.02 68.47 Makueni 61.82 52.94 Mbooni 75.49 62.73 County 52.78 53.8 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county Buuri 60.64 61.61 and its Sub-counties except for Igembe central, Igembe Central south, Tigania East and Igembe North which recorded 63.2 66.82 Imenti normal vegetation greenness. 43.4 43.31 38.79 35.39 42.35 46.67 MERU South 60.29 67.68 76.63 78.71 46.35 48.48 57.24 48.48 NYERI County 71.21 74.98 The county and its sub counties remained stable recording Kieni 61.56 68.12 above normal vegetation greenness just like the previous Mathira 78.47 75.48 month of March. Mukurwei 84.3 87.55 Town 86.18 84.46 Othaya 86.47 87.2 Tetu 83.49 83.49 County 31.2 27.05 Deterioration in vegetation condition noted across the county Ganze 26.03 17.55 and most of its sub counties recording moderate vegetation Kaloleni 27.69 19.84 deficit Ganze, Kaloleni and Kilifi South are in severe KILIFI Magarini 33.52 31.73 vegetation deficit category during the month under review. Malindi 31.19 28.56 37.54 32.61 Rabai 32.7 25.81 23.04 17.24 County 51.29 43.08 Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county Kinango 45.9 36.67 which is decline when the month under review is compared KWALE Lungalung to the previous month of March. Matuga and Msambweni sub 54.78 36.67 counties remained at above normal vegetation greenness. Matuga 64.76 53.92 Msambwe 64.34 55.43 County 37.22 42.21 The entire county remained in normal vegetation greenness. LAMU Lamu East 34.72 42.21 38.66 40.82 TAITA County 58.03 52.06 TAVETA Mwatate 63.5 60.29 Taveta 58.36 56.86 Stability in the vegetation condition greenness above normal Voi 55.12 46.48 in the county together with its all-sub-counties. Voi Wundanyi 71.94 65.83 subcounty remains in normal vegetation greenness. County 71.51 72.41 60.99 65.99 Emurua 82.44 80.12 The county and its sub-counties remained stable in above Dikirr normal vegetation greenness band. The attributing factor Kilgoris 77.78 75.33 could be the timely onset of the long rains of MAM in the 3rd NAROK Narok- 59.17 61.22 dekad of March which has been evenly distributed in both space and time 69.43 73.38 80.2 77.83 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Nutrition Circumference) Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification