February 2021 1 Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall The month of January marked the onset of the dry season. As a result, most ASAL counties experienced sunny, hot and dry weather conditions for most of January 2021 which is usual for this time of the year. Figure 1 shows the total amount of rainfall recorded in January 2021. Overall, rainfall performance in most parts of the country was depressed with most ASAL counties recording rainfall amounts that were below 50 mm. During the month, higher than average daytime temperatures were recorded over the entire ASAL region. The higher than average daytime temperatures led to raised rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration which caused faster reduction in water levels in the open water reservoirs and from the soil surface hence resulting in rapid drying up of dams, water pans, and moisture stresswilting in pasture and crops. Figure 1: Rainfall Performance: January 2021 Rainfall Totals Figure 2 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in January 2020 with that in January 2021. The maps show that in most ASAL counties, the current condition of vegetation is worse when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average which is attributed to the below average rains received during the October to December 2020 rainfall season. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), January 2020 and January 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) January 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) January 2021 As of 25th January 2021, four ASAL counties namely; Marsabit, Mandera, Isiolo and Wajir were classified in the moderate vegetation deficit class; a total of 15 ASAL counties (Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and West Pokot) had above normal vegetation condition, while 4 counties (Garissa, Samburu, Tana River and Kilifi) were in the normal vegetation greenness category. Currently 2 sub counties Eldas and Wajir West in Wajir County are experiencing severe vegetation deficit while 15 sub counties spread in 6 counties are in the moderate vegetation deficit band. These includes: i) Mandera (Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera South and Mandera West); ii) Wajir (Wajir East, Wajir North, Wajir South and Tarbaj); iii) Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr); iv) Garissa (Balambala, Dujis); v) Isiolo (Isiolo North); and vi) Tana River (Bura) are in the moderate vegetation deficit band. Indicating that in these areas, the rainfall received during the OND season did not increase the vegetation greenness to the expected normal ranges for the period. Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently lower compared to last month due to reduction in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality coupled with increase in trekking distances in search of pasture and water. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair and good condition as shown in Table 1. However, most counties reported that the quantity and quality of pasture and browse was declining. The deteriorating trend was mainly as a result of the below average performance of the October to December rainfall. On the other hand, other factors also limited pasture and browse access. For instance, in Isiolo County, insecurity along Isiolo - Garissa, Isiolo - Wajir and Isiolo - Laikipia border hindered access to pasture and browse. In addition, other factors limiting pasture access include; increase in invasive plant species, inadequate water in the wet grazing areas, outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in Kinna and Sericho Wards and ticks and tsetse fly infestation in Garbatulla and Kinna Ward. Similarly, in Mandera County, pasture access was constrained by insecurity and poor water availability especially in Mandera West, Banisa. Lafey and Kutulo sub-counties. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, January 2021 Pasture Browse Isiolo Baringo Embu Isiolo Baringo Embu Lamu Kajiado Kwale Lamu Garissa Kwale Mandera Garissa Makueni Mandera Kajiado Makueni Wajir Kitui Taita Taveta Kitui Marsabit Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Narok Marsabit Meru North Taita Taveta Meru North Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Narok Samburu Nyeri Tana River Samburu West Pokot Livestock body condition Livestock body condition for all livestock species was good to fair across all the ASAL counties as illustrated in Table 2. However, in Turkana County, livestock body condition was generally fair and on a deteriorating trend in the Fisheries Livelihood Zone (Kalimapus and Nachukui) and the Pastoral Zone (Kalapata, Lokichar and some parts of Kanamkemer Ward). Likewise, fair to poor livestock body condition was observed in the Pastoral Livelihood Zones of Mandera and Tana River counties and in some pockets of North Horr and Laisamis Sub County of Marsabit County. The poor livestock body condition was attributed to rapid depletion of forage due to below average 2020 Short rains and long trekking distance in search of water and forage. It is anticipated that the livestock body condition for all livestock categories would deteriorate further as the rangeland conditions worsen due to the projected above normal surface temperature between February and early April when the long rains are expected. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, January 2021 Cattle Goats Baringo Embu Baringo Embu Kitui Garissa Kitui Garissa Lamu Isiolo Lamu Isiolo Mandera Kajiado Mandera Kajiado Narok Kwale Narok Kwale Nyeri Laikipia Nyeri Laikipia Tana River Makueni Tana River Makueni Wajir Marsabit Wajir Marsabit West Pokot Meru North West Pokot Meru North Samburu Samburu Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Milk production Most ASAL counties registered a reduction in milk production during the month under review (Table 3). For example, in Marsabit County, average milk production per household per day decreased by 43 percent to 1.3 litres in January from 2.3 litres in December while household milk production per day in Samburu dropped by 15 percent from 2 litres in December to 1.7 litres in January. In Wajir, average milk production per household per day decreased by 10 percent from 2 litres in December to 1.8 litres in January. At the same time, average milk production per household per day was below LTA in Kwale, Turkana, Marsabit, Kajiado and Wajir by 37, 36, 28, 26 and 23 percent respectively. The decrease in milk production was attributed to below normal performance of the OND rains which resulted to poor regeneration of forage and low recharge of water sources, increase in trekking distances covered by livestock in search of water and pasture and declining livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Milk production, January 2021 Milk Garissa Isiolo Baringo Isiolo Kwale Baringo Production Kitui Laikipia Kwale Kajiado Laikipia Kilifi Lamu Nyeri Turkana Kitui Mandera Marsabit Samburu Kajiado Makueni Tana River Meru Makueni Kilifi Narok Wajir Embu Mandera Taita Taveta Garissa Narok Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Lamu Taita Taveta Meru T urkana Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Embu West Pokot Wajir West Pokot Cattle prices In about 80 percent of the ASAL counties, cattle prices are higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of January as shown in Table 4. For instance, in Kajiado, Isiolo, Wajir, Tana River, Baringo and Marsabit the current prices are above LTA by 53, 46, 45, 34, 20 and 17 percent respectively. The favourable cattle prices was attributed to the generally good body condition of cattle in most counties. However, in Turkana County, the average price of a medium sized bull decreased by 7 percent from Kshs 15,170 in December to Kshs 14,095 in January and was lower than the three-year average price of cattle for January by 17 percent. The decline in cattle prices in Turkana was mainly attributed to the deteriorating body condition of cattle occasioned by elongated trekking distances in search of pasture. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, January 2021 Cattle Baringo, Makueni Embu T urkana Garissa Baringo Isiolo Prices Isiolo, Lamu, Kajiado Garissa Mandera Kajiado West Pokot Kilifi, Wajir, Kitui Mandera Meru Kilifi Embu Narok, Tana River N yeri Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Marsabit Marsabit, Tharaka Makueni Lamu Kitui Nithi, West Pokot Turkana Narok Samburu, Meru, Samburu Laikipia, Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Wajir Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trend in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of Janury goat prices in nearly all ASAL areas were above average or close to LTA except in Turkana and Kwale counties. The below normal goat prices in the two counties was ascribed to worsening body condition driven by poor availability of pasture and browse. Table 5.0: Goat prices, January 2021 Goat Garissa Kajiado Baringo Turkana Meru Kajiado Baringo Prices Lamu Samburu Makueni K wale Tana river Lamu Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Taita Taveta Makueni Laikipia Embu Nyeri Kilifi Marsabit N arok Kilifi Narok Wajir Embu Nyeri Isiolo Kitui Samburu Wajir Meru Garissa West Pokot Taita Taveta Mandera Kwale Tana River Turkana West Pokot Kitui Mandera Laikipia The average acreage under maize in the marginal agricultural counties such as Makueni, Kilifi, Narok, Meru (Meru North), Taita Taveta, Nyeri (Kieni), Kitui, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere) and Tharaka was 15 - 20 percent below average due to the forecasted below average 2020 October- November-December (OND) rainfall season and limited access to inputs such as certified seed and fertilizer. Harvesting of pulses like green grams, beans and cowpeas was ongoing while most of the cereal crops such as millet, sorghum and maize were at the grain filling and the drying stage of development with harvesting expected to start from mid-February. In the Marginal Mixed Farming Zone in Makueni County, maize had wilted in most pockets in Makindu and Nguu ward in Kibwezi West, Masongaleni in Kibwezi East and in Kilome Sub Counties. The poor state of the maize crop was as a result of the delayed onset of the OND rains and the long dry spells experienced in December. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in January (Table 6). Stabilization in price across counties was as a result of the continued flow of maize from markets in the country coupled with the cross-border imports from Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda. Overall, the current maize prices are largely below average with 19 out of the 23 ASAL counties recording prices below LTA. For example, in Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Laikipia and Kitui current prices are lower than LTA by 23, 22, 15, 14 and 13 percent respectively. The below average to average maize prices were attributed to good harvest from previous seasons and sustained supply of stock from neighboring counties and cross-border imports. Table 6.0: Maize prices, January 2021 Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Garissa Baringo Embu Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Prices Kwale Kajiado Isiolo Meru Mandera Mandera Makueni Lamu West Pokot Taita Taveta Marsabit Meru West Pokot Turkana Wajir Narok Kilifi Samburu Nyeri Tana River Meru Embu Samburu Turkana Kajiado Kitui Taita Taveta Kitui Narok Tharaka Nithi L aikipia Tharaka Nithi W ajir Laikipia Makueni Kwale Nyeri Lamu Marsabit Access to water In about 40 percent of the ASAL counties, distances to water sources have increased compared to the month of December. Some of the largest increase in distances to the main water points for households during the month were in the following counties: Mandera, Kwale, Tana River, Meru (Meru North), Marsabit and Isiolo. In Mandera, for example, average household distance to watering sources increased from 10.5 km in December to 14.4 km in January. In Tana River, current average return distance from household to the main water sources increased from 3.4 km in December to 5.7 km, rising by 68 percent while in Marsabit distance to water sources from the household increased by 18 percent to 9.1 km from 7.7 km recorded in December. The increase in distances to water sources was largely attributed to drying of open water sources. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 7. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, January 2021 Distance from Garissa Baringo Kajiado Baringo Isiolo households to Kitui Embu Laikipia Embu Kitui main water Kwale Isiolo Nyeri Garissa Kwale sources Makueni Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Makueni Lamu Mandera Laikipia Wajir Narok Mandera Marsabit Lamu Taita Taveta Marsabit Samburu Meru north Meru North Taita Taveta Narok Samburu Tana River Nyeri Tana River Wajir Tharaka Nithi West Pokot The trend in the distances trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 8. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distances to water sources from grazing areas increased in 10 ASAL. In addition, access to water for livestock was to some extent more challenging in January compared with normal times as animals had to walk slightly longer distances compared with the usual distances recorded in the 2016 - 2020 long-term average (LTA). For instance, in Mandera County, the average distance for livestock increased by 35 percent to 14.9 km in January from 11 km in December which is also above the long term mean of 8 km by 86 percent. Similarly in Samburu distances to livestock watering points from grazing areas increased considerably by a proportion of 47 percent from 7.6 km in December to 11.2 km in January while in Isiolo average distances walked by livestock increased by 21 percent from 11.2 to 13.6 km. The increase in trekking distances was attributed to drying of water pans and dams largely because most of the surface water sources were not fully recharged during the short rains season. Table 8.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, January 2021 Distance from Isiolo Baringo Embu Kajiado Embu Baringo livestock Kwale Kitui Garissa Tharaka Nithi Garissa Isiolo grazing areas Makueni Laikipia Kajiado Kitui Kwale to main water Mandera Nyeri Lamu Marsabit Laikipia sources Narok Samburu Marsabit Taita Taveta Lamu Wajir Meru North Wajir Makueni Taita Taveta West Pokot Mandera Tana River Meru North Tharaka Nithi Narok West Pokot Nyeri Samburu Terms of trade Table 9 shows the trends in the terms of trade (ToT) in ASAL counties. In January 2021, terms of trade in all counties remained favourable, implying that livestock producers in these counties could purchase quantities of maize above seasonal averages from the sale of a medium size goat. For example, terms of trade were favourable in Marsabit Tana River, Isiolo, Mandera and Samburu counties as households were able to buy more kilogrammes of maize from the sale of a goat compared to the long term average. In Marsabit county, medium sized goat was exchanged with 84 kg of maize against the long-term average of 74 kg. Likewise, households in Tana River were able to buy 105 kg of maize from the sale of a medium sized goat compared to the long term average of 64 kg. The favourable terms of trade were attributed to the prevailing above average goat prices which were driven by good body condition and high demand while maize prices had remained stable during the October 2020 and January 2021 period. Table 9.0: Terms of trade (ToT), January 2021 Terms of Kajiado Narok Tana River Embu Baringo trade (ToT) Baringo Turkana Isiolo Makueni Kilifi Kajiado Mandera Samburu Wajir Garissa Nyeri Embu Lamu Lamu Taita Taveta Nyeri Marsabit Turkana Makueni Samburu Wajir Mandera Narok West Pokot Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Meru Meru Kwale Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Kwale Laikipia Laikipia Kitui Taita Taveta Health and nutrition The analysis of MUAC data in 25.J0ul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 different ASAL counties showed mixed trends. For example, the proportion of children 6-59 months 20.0 with MUAC less than 125 mm was on a downward trend from July 2020 1s ir5.0 to January 2021 in Garissa (Figure t a 3) while in Wajir the proportion was n 1e c0.0 on an upward trajectory in the r P months to January 2021, indicating a worsening situation. The main drivers of acute 0.0 malnutrition in the Garissa, Isiolo, Garissa Isiolo Mandera Tana river Wajir Mandera, Tana River and Wajir are food insecurity, human diseases, poor infant and young child feeding Figure 3: Proportion of children 6 to 59 with MUAC below 125mm practices. Marsabit had 10.50 percent while Samburu had above 25 percent of children who were malnourished. According to mother MUAC results in Turkana, the proportion of malnourished children based on mid upper arm circumference (colour MUAC) was 6.1 percent. This is a deterioration from 3.5 percent recorded earlier, an indicative deterioration of household food stress across the OND season following the poor performance of the short rains. The high malnutrition rates are possibly influenced by poor child maternal care practices coupled with poor health care seeking behaviour attributed to fear of COVID-19. In Kitui, Embu (Mbeere), Propotion of children 6 to 59 with MUAC below Makueni, Meru (Meru North) and 125mm Tharaka, the proportion of children 8 aged 6-59 months with MUAC less 6 than 125 mm reduced between November 2020 and January 2021 (Figure 4) an indication of 2 improvement in the general nutrition situation. It is projected that the situation will remain stable Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 between March and April 2021. Embu Kitui Makueni Meru Tharaka Nithi Figure 4: Proportion of children 6-59 with MUAC 125mm 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 10 shows the status and trend in drought phase classification in the 23 ASAL counties. Although majority of the counties are still in the normal drought phase, compared to the situation in December the drought status in most ASAL counties deteriorated in January. Currently the drought status is categorized as follows: Normal, 16 counties; Alert, 7 counties. In terms of trend, the situation is as follows: Worsening in 15 counties; Stable in 6 counties; Improving in 2 counties. The declining trend is attributed to the poor rainfall performance observed during the October- November-December (OND) 2020 short rains season in the affected areas. In addition the sunny, dry and hot weather conditions that prevailed over most parts of the country in January 2021 also worsened the situation because the higher than average daytime temperatures experienced in many ASAL counties led to high rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration which caused faster reduction in water levels in open water sources and from the soil surface hence resulting in rapid drying up of dams and water pans, and wilting in pasture and crops. Table 10.0: Drought phase classification, January 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Embu (Mbeere) Kajiado, Makueni, Meru (Meru Garissa, Lamu, Tana River K wale North), Narok, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Samburu, West Pokot, Kitui, Nithi (Tharaka) Laikipia, Nyeri (Kieni) Alert Baringo, Isiolo, Kilifi, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Turkana Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting food insecure households. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Improvement of marketing infrastructure including provision of hand washing facilities in line with MoH protocols on COVID-19 prevention in order to enhance smooth market operations. Provision of drought tolerant seeds and other farm inputs and tools to farmers and agro pastoralists in preparation for the MAM season. Repair of broken-down water facilities such as strategic boreholes at the same time installing water harvesting structures in strategic institutions. Provision of water treatment chemicals for communities using open surface water sources. Sensitization of good hygiene including hand washing, social distancing and conduct awareness campaigns on COVID-19 prevention. Continuous engagement and capacity building for mothers and caregivers on use of Family MUAC in order to improve the quality of nutrition data. Scale up mass screening and integrated medical outreaches targeting malnutrition hotspots in all ASAL counties. Conduct inter-county and cross border peace dialogue and conflict resolution meetings to facilitate harmony and resource sharing. Annex 1.0 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th January 2020 BARINGO County 83.07 67.76 In the month of January, the entire county is in above normal vegetation Central 86.61 75.99 greenness, the situation is stable compared to the previous month of November. Eldama 77.55 69.55 However, there is decline trend in VCI index attributed to gradual caseation on OND short rain season Mogotio 86.27 67.6 North 85.49 68.6 South 75.29 59.81 Tiaty 84.88 68.88 MANDERA County 44.15 32.03 The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month of January compared Banissa 52.51 36.58 to the previous month of December. The situation is deteriorating at alarming M East 31.54 21.01 rate with Mandera East already in Moderate vegetation deficit Lafey 35.68 25.14 M North 49.6 36.12 M South 42.76 33.01 M West 45.52 32.88 TURKANA County 81.57 61.81 The county is in stability in VCI for the county and all its sub counties having T Central 67.32 57.61 recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of December except T. East 61.39 48.38 for Turkana East. T. Loima 87.37 68.31 T. North 78.4 55.28 T. South 75.87 61.56 T. West 106.12 78.32 MARSABIT County 37.11 28.15 The county and its sub counties showed a deteriorating VCI condition from the Laisaimis 41.72 29.77 normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit in the month of January compared with the previous month of Deecember. Saku sub county Moyale 34.8 30.59 deteriorated to normal from the previous above normal. N. Horr 34.38 25.43 Saku 50.52 49.85 WAJIR County 32.44 28.02 The county remained in Moderate vegetation deficit. Serious worsening and W East 39.96 34.74 rapid decrease in VCI condition across the county and all sub counties in the month under review. Wajir Eldas and Wajir West are worst as it stands at extreme W.Eldas 17.11 12.1 vegetation deficit. W. North 45.68 34.99 W. South 33.54 32.67 W.Tarbaj 38.39 31.5 W West 14.05 10.99 SAMBURU County 57.84 45.54 S East 51.62 39.04 The entire county and its sub counties deteriorated to normal from above normal S. North 60.78 49.01 vegetation greenness .Samburu west remained above normal. S. West 73.25 60.26 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GARISSA County 41.82 38.47 The county is in Normal vegetation greenness. The situation is expected to Balambala 38.81 34.76 deteriorate in the coming month. Balambala recorded a moderate vegetation deficit when compared to the month of December. Daadab 39.09 35.56 Fafi 40.88 39.22 Ijara 49.29 45.21 Lagdera 40.88 35.11 Dujis 32.44 27.58 ISIOLO County 35.11 29.17 Major decrease in the vegetation greenness condition with entire county and its I. North 29.88 22.56 sub-counties falling in the moderate vegetation deficit. January showed a decrease when compared to the previous month of December. This is attributed I. South 43.1 39.27 t o the early cessation of the OND rains. TANA County 43.41 39.56 The county remained at normal vegetation greenness condition. This situation is RIVER Bura 31.54 29.17 worsening in January as compared to last month of December. Galole 44.11 39.24 Garsen 53.05 48.59 KAJIADO County 57.08 50.08 Stability noted across the county with all sub counties remaining at above normal vegetation greenness conditions. Kajiado central and West recorded normal K. Central 52.2 47.85 vegetation. K. East 56.62 54.74 K. North 62.27 63.22 K. South 63.81 59.73 K. West 54.45 41.19 LAIKIPIA County 66.31 54.39 The county and its sub counties remained stable thus above normal vegetation L. East 52.85 43.15 greenness. This condition is expected to worsen as Laikipia east recorded normal. L. North 67.79 55.49 L. West 70.02 57.77 THARAKA County 50.41 59.07 The county is in normal vegetation greenness. The situation is improving when NITHI compared to the previous month of December. Tharaka has showed an Chuka 63.93 72.88 improvement in the when this month is compared to last month of December. Maara 65.31 73.45 Tharaka 40.55 49.27 WEST County 82.13 66.79 The vegetation greenness is in above normal condition across the county. The POKOT situation is in stable condition when the previous month of December is Kacheliba 78.23 61.56 considered. The attribution factor is steady and continuous rainfall performance Kapenguria 84.49 69.92 in this region. Pokot South 81.7 72.28 Sigor 87.49 70.43 EMBU County 60.11 70.48 Manyatta 61.45 70.48 Improvement in vegetation condition in the month of January across all the sub- Mbeere North 55.4 65.51 counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. When Mbeere South 60.75 70.36 compared to the month of December. This is due to late onset of rainfall in this area hence prolonged time as well. Runyenjes 66.98 77.7 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT County 44.04 52.16 The county is improving in normal vegetation greenness condition. Mwingi Kitui Central 59.63 70.41 Central has also improved to above normal from moderate vegetation deficit when months of January and December are compared. KITUI Kitui East 43.24 52.22 Mwingi Central 32.01 44.07 Mwingi North 37.28 42.33 Mwingi West 50.05 61.49 Kitui Rural 55.93 65.52 Kitui South 47.6 54.63 Kitui West 56.3 65.15 County 61.71 71.86 There has been a significant stability with the county above normal vegetation greenness conditions. Kaiti 76.16 86.87 MAKUENI Kibwezi East 57.58 73.11 Kibwezi West 60.41 71.31 Kilome 65.76 71.31 Makueni 59.43 65.41 Mbooni 68.33 76.05 County 62.04 63.03 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county and its Sub-counties except for Tigania West. The entire county has a stable vegetation greenness Buuri 65.67 68.07 when the previous month of December is compared with the current month of Central Imenti 61.55 66.04 January. MERU Igembe Central 67.3 65.64 Igembe North 67.01 58.47 Igembe South 63.82 63.98 North Imenti 52.23 58.44 South Imenti 65.91 73.37 Tigania East 50.35 50.24 Tigania West 45.26 57.63 County 68.17 72.65 The county is in a stable state when vegetation greenness is compared between the months of December and January. All the sub-counties recorded above NYERI Kieni 66.4 66.75 normal vegetation greenness condition and that there has been imminent Mathira 65.92 74.43 improvement between the two months. Mukurweini 75.85 80.35 Town 71.05 83.63 Othaya 72.18 84.93 Tetu 70.75 75.6 County 50.19 45.65 Improvement in vegetation condition across all the county with vegetation greenness above normal parts of the county. Ganze 48.11 47.95 Kaloleni 56.57 52.3 KILIFI Magarini 47.96 42.61 Malindi 61.45 50.01 Kilifi-North 64.15 55.15 Rabai 62.89 55.03 Kilifi-South 42.52 39.46 County 57.14 64.28 Above Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county which is a big KWALE Kinango 55.02 61.91 improvement when month under review is compared to the previous month of Lungalunga 60.06 68.29 December. Matuga 61.46 67.06 Msambweni 57.19 67.06 County 60.1 50.61 Positive Stability in both county and sub counties remaining at above normal LAMU Lamu East 61.71 50.63 vegetation greenness condition. The situation improved in terms of VCI index Lamu West 59.15 49.89 erformance of OND rains. Lamu east has slightly deteriorated to County 53.89 64.17 Stability in the vegetation greenness condition in the above normal to normal TAITA Mwatate 49.6 60.05 category from Normal vegetation greenness recorded in the previous month of TAVETA December. The situation could be due to good OND rainfall performance Taveta 57.33 59.84 Voi 53.02 66.12 Wundanyi 61.68 76.64 County 70.83 67.88 Narok-East 61.79 52.98 NAROK Emurua Dikirr 92.71 93.19 Stability in the vegetation greenness was noted across the county and its entire Kilgoris 83.93 82.41 sub-counties. The situation could be stable due to good rainfall performance Narok-North 67.2 69.41 within the entire county and the continuity period is still good. Narok-South 62.05 56.41 Narok-West 76.87 75.33 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Nutrition Circumference) Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification