May 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS The good rains received in April have In virtually all ASAL counties, return distances to water enhanced pasture regeneration and boosted for households are currently below the five-year higher development and growth of crops. average while at the same time most counties registered However, the heavy rainfall that was an improving trend in April as most areas continued to received from mid-April also resulted in receive reasonable rainfall during the month. widespread flooding and have created a conducive environment for the persistence of In all ASAL areas, terms of trade (ToT) were the desert locust infestation, which is posing favourable since the proceeds from the sale of a goat significant threat to crops and livestock could purchase larger quantities of maize in April forage across the arid and semi-arid (ASAL) compared with the long term average (LTA) while the region. nutrition status of children in most counties improved this month with 15 out of 23 counties reporting Abundant availability of water, pasture and incidences of children with mid-upper arm browse in all ASAL counties has led to a circumference (MUAC) less than 135 mm which was general improvement in livestock body close to or below LTA, implying that in about 70 condition for all livestock species, which in percent of the ASAL counties the current nutrition turn has led to an increase in livestock status of children below the age of five years was within productivity. the seasonal ranges. Drought phase classification, April 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Kwale, Wajir, Kajiado, Baringo, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Lamu, Isiolo, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Kilifi, Garissa, Tana Makueni, Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, River, Embu Kitui, Meru (Meru North), Marsabit, Tharaka (Mbeere), Nithi (Tharaka) 1.0. Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall During the month of April, nearly all ASAL counties received enhanced rainfall that was characterized by heavy storms. In many areas, intense rains were received throughout the month and consequently, by the end of the month, several counties had attained and surpassed their long term mean rainfall for April. Counties which recorded substantial above average rains in April include: Narok, West Pokot, Garissa, Turkana, Marsabit, Makueni, Embu and Kajiado. The good rains received in April have enhanced pasture regeneration and growth of crops. However, the above average rains have also resulted in widespread flooding and have created a conducive environment for the persistence of the desert locust infestation, which is posing significant threat to crops and livestock forage. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) values as at 27th April 2020 is summarized in Table 1. Most ASAL areas have received good rains since October 2019 and the vegetation indices at the end of April 2020 indicate above average condition. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI 3 month) Summary Status as at 27th April 2020 Above Normal Normal Moderate Severe Mandera Tana River Garissa Turkana Samburu Isiolo Kitui West Pokot Wajir Kajiado Embu Laikipia Lamu Meru Marsabit Makueni Narok Nyeri Baringo Taita Taveta (Kieni) Kilifi Tharaka Kwale (23) (0) (0) (0) Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in late April 2019 with that in late April 2020. The April 2020, VCI map illustrates that the vegetation condition in April 2020 was better compared to the situation in April 2019 and as the right hand VCI map for 2020 demonstrates, vegetation greenness in April 2020 in all arid and semi-arid counties was within normal to above normal ranges. The improved state of vegetation across ASAL areas is mainly attributed to the early onset of the March-April-May rainy season and the enhanced rainfall received in April. Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2019 and April 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) April 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) April 2020 Water sources The current sources of water for both domestic and livestock use are water pans, dams, shallow wells, rock catchments ponds, boreholes, rivers and piped water systems. Recharge to the open water sources is 70 to 100 percent of their capacities, which has greatly improved water availability. For instance, approximately half of the water pans and rock catchments in Turkana are currently at full capacity, while water levels in most surface water sources in Baringo, Kitui, Samburu and Kajiado are at about 70 percent of their maximum volume. Livestock production Abundant availability of water, pasture and browse in all ASAL counties has led to a general improvement in livestock body condition for all livestock species, which in turn has led to an increase in livestock productivity. Pasture and browse condition Overall, pasture and browse condition considerably improved in April when compared to the preceding month which was attributed to the cumulative effect of the above normal rains that promoted massive pasture and browse growth and regeneration. Nearly all counties reported the current state of pasture and browse as being above normal when compared to a similar month of the year as presented in Table 2. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, April 2020 Pasture Browse P oor Fair Good P oor Fair Good Baringo Tharaka Nithi Lamu Mandera Tharaka Nithi Lamu Mandera Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River Samburu Embu Turkana Kitui Turkana Garissa Isiolo Samburu Embu Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Meru Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Narok Laikipia Meru Marsabit Nyeri Makueni Narok Kitui Kwale Marsabit Nyeri West Pokot Baringo Kwale Livestock body condition Livestock body condition for cattle and goats was fair to good in all counties as illustrated in Table 3. The current livestock body condition has improved compared to last month due to availability of pasture and water in close proximity hence livestock are walking shorter distances between the grazing fields and water points. In general, the current body condition of most livestock is above normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, April 2020 Goats Cattle Poor Fair Good Poor Fair Good Baringo Tharaka Nithi Narok Baringo Tharaka Nithi Narok Lamu Taita Taveta Wajir Lamu Taita Taveta Wajir Laikipia West Pokot Nyeri Laikipia West Pokot Nyeri Tana River Meru Tana River Meru Samburu Embu Samburu Embu Makueni Makueni Garissa Garissa Marsabit Isiolo Marsabit Isiolo Mandera Kwale Mandera Kwale Turkana Kitui Turkana Kitui Kajiado Kilifi Kajiado Kilifi Milk production In comparison to the 2017 to 2019 production records, average milk production per household in April 2020 in seventeen counties was above or close to LTA which was attributed to increased availability of water, pasture and browse. However, six counties which includes: Samburu, Kajiado, Lamu, Makueni, Tana River and Kitui recorded below normal milk production. The below average milk production was attributed to a drop in calving rates, general reduction in household livestock herd size and outbreak of livestock diseases like food and mouth disease (FMD) contagious bovine pleuro pneumonia (CBPP). In Tana River County the drop in milk production was also associated with increased incidences of pests mainly tsetse fly and flooding which had submerged most of the grazing fields. Milk production situation in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in Table 4. Table 4.0: Milk production, April 2020 Milk Garissa Baringo Kitui Kajiado Embu Garissa Production Isiolo Kilifi Kajiado Lamu West Pokot Marsabit Marsabit Laikipia Lamu Turkana Baringo Laikipia Nyeri (Kieni) Meru North Makueni Kwale Isiolo Makueni Tharaka Nithi Wajir Samburu Mandera Kitui Tana River West Pokot T ana River Meru Kilifi Kwale Narok Samburu Embu (Mbeere) Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Narok Taita Taveta Wajir Mandera Turkana Cattle prices Table 5 illustrates the trends in cattle prices. In all ASAL counties, the current average price for cattle are above or close to the 2015 - 2019 mean. For instance, in Mandera County the average price of a medium size four-year bull rose from Kshs 20,700 in March to Kshs 23,500 in April which was an increase of 14 percent. In West Pokot County the average cattle price recorded in April was Kshs 23,529 which was above the LTA price of Kshs 14,190 by 66 percent. Likewise in Kilifi County, average cattle prices stood at Kshs 25,000 which was above the 2015 - 2019 LTA of Kshs 16,914 by 48 percent. The above average cattle prices was attributed to the improved body condition of cattle across ASAL areas. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, April 2020 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Tana River Isiolo Kitui Isiolo Baringo Embu Mandera Prices Taita Taveta Nyeri Turkana Kajiado Samburu Lamu Kilifi West Pokot Wajir Kwale Tana River Makueni Wajir Kitui Marsabit Meru Embu Turkana Narok Laikipia Samburu Kilifi Makueni Garissa Kwale Meru Baringo Garissa Marsabit Nyeri Laikipia Narok Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Lamu Taita Taveta Mandera West Pokot Kajiado Goat prices All ASAL counties reported above normal or close to LTA prices for goats in April 2020 which was attributed to the good body condition of goats and reduced volumes of livestock presented for sale due to closure of markets in some areas as result of restrictions placed to curb the spread of COVID-19. In Samburu County, for instance, the price of a medium-sized two-year old buck increased by 16 percent to Kshs 3,560 from Kshs 3,070 recorded in March which was above the LTA price of Kshs 2,820 by 26 percent. Likewise, current average prices for goats in West Pokot, Kilifi, Wajir, Turkana and Kajiado were above LTA by 45, 34, 33, 29 and 24 percent respectively. Table 6 demonstrates the trend in goat prices in April 2020 in the 23 ASAL counties. Table 6.0: Goat prices, April 2020 Goat Turkana Nyeri Meru Garissa Taita Taveta Baringo Prices Kajiado Kilifi Isiolo Turkana West Pokot Embu Garissa Makueni Mandera Kilifi Tana River Kajiado Marsabit Narok Embu Makueni Mandera Kitui Samburu Wajir Kitui Samburu Isiolo Kwale Laikipia Baringo Lamu Wajir Nyeri Laikipia West Pokot Kwale Tana River Narok Lamu Tharaka Nithi Meru Marsabit Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi The impact of the heavy rains received during the month was mixed; while they have led to good performance in crops planted on gentle slopes, they have also led to poor performance in farms located on flat plains and low lying areas due to flooding and waterlogging. The main farm activities carried out during the month included weeding and control of pests and diseases. Early planted beans, green grams and cow peas are currently at flowering to pod formation stage while maize, millet and sorghum are at knee height stage. During the month under review, cases of fall armyworm were reported in Makueni and Meru (Meru North) County. Desert locust infestation was also reported in Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) and in Igembe Central in Meru County. Intervention measures carried out to control the desert locust invasion included community sensitization, surveillance and monitoring of hoppers and swarms, and conducting both ground and aerial spraying. Maize prices In most ASAL areas, prices of maize were below or close to the 2015 - 19 average and remained stable compared to last month as reflected in Table 7. However, there were reports of price spikes in a number of counties such as Embu, Narok, Kilifi, Wajir, Meru and Kwale which was attributed to increased demand occasioned by market closures, panic buying, high cost of transport, and supply shortages due to COVID-19 prevention related restrictions. In Embu (Mbeere) County, for instance, maize prices increased by 24 percent from Kshs 31 per kg in March to Kshs 41 in April which is 26 percent higher than the three-year mean of Kshs 33. Similarly, in Kilifi County retail price of maize increased by 19 percent from Kshs 42 in March to Kshs 49 per kg. Table 7.0: Maize prices, April 2020 Maize Mandera Marsabit Lamu Turkana Samburu Garissa Marsabit Prices Baringo Samburu Tana River Mandera Turkana Tharaka Embu Garissa Makueni Makueni Laikipia Kajiado Wajir Laikipia Isiolo Taita Taveta Lamu Baringo Kajiado Narok West Pokot Isiolo Embu Tharaka Kilifi Kitui Tana River Nyeri Kilifi Taita Taveta Nyeri Wajir West Pokot Meru Kitui Kwale Narok Access to water Table 8 summarizes the trend in distances walked by households to access water. In virtually all ASAL counties, return distances to water for households are currently below the 2015-2019 average while at the same time most counties registered an improving trend in April as most areas continued to receive moderate to heavy rainfall throughout the month. For instance, there was a 48 percent reduction in the average trekking distance to water points for households in Kilifi, from 2.3 km in March to 1.2 km in April. In addition, when compared to similar periods, the current household water distance of 1.2 km was 79 percent shorter than the normal household water distance of 5.6 km. likewise, in Samburu County, average distance to watering points for households reduced by 30 percent from 4.6 km in March to 3.2 km in April. At the same time, return distances to water sources for households in Mandera County dropped from 8.2 km in March to 5.8 km in April a reduction of 29 percent. However, in Tana River County, household trekking distances increased by a margin of 21 percent from 4.2 km in March to 5.1 km in April which is also above the LTA distance of 4.5 km by 13 percent. The increase in distances was attributed to flooding which contaminated most of the open water sources hence forcing households to walk long distances to access clean water from boreholes. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, April 2020 Distance Tana River Kwale Mandera Turkana Baringo Embu Taita Taveta Tana River from Taita Taveta Samburu Wajir Laikipia Kitui Makueni Meru households Makueni Meru Marsabit Kwale Kajiado to main Laikipia Lamu Samburu Kilifi Garissa Marsabit Narok Mandera Nyeri Lamu Baringo Isiolo Turkana Wajir Kilifi Kitui Isiolo Narok Garissa Embu West Pokot Tharaka Kajiado T haraka Nithi West Pokot Nyeri As a result of adequate pasture availability within sites in close proximity to water sources, all ASAL counties reported lower than the five-year average trekking distances from grazing fields to water sources, implying improved access in comparison with a similar period in the past. For example, in Turkana County return distance for livestock from grazing areas to watering points decreased considerably by a proportion of 31 percent to 4 km in April from 5.8 km in March which is also below the long term mean of 7.5 km by 47 percent. Similarly, in Kitui, distance covered by livestock to water sources decreased by 12 percent from 4.1 km in March to 3.6 km in April, while in Kwale the distance trekked by livestock to access water decreased by 31 percent from 3.9 km in March to 2.7 km in April. In the same way, current return distances for livestock in Kilifi, Isiolo, Marsabit, Narok, Mandera and West Pokot are below the 2015 - 19 LTA by 75, 72, 71, 65, 61 and 45 percent respectively. The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is shown in Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, April 2020 Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance Tana River Meru Samburu Kitui Garissa from Samburu Kwale Mandera Embu Baringo livestock Marsabit Narok Marsabit Wajir Meru grazing Turkana Kitui Laikipia Kwale Narok Mandera Nyeri Kajiado Nyeri Taita Taveta area to Laikipia Lamu Kilifi Isiolo Lamu Baringo Wajir Tharaka Nithi Makueni Garissa Embu Tana River Makueni Isiolo West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Turkana Tharaka Nithi Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trend in the terms of trade (ToT) in ASAL counties. In all ASAL areas, terms of trade (ToT) were favourable since the proceeds from the sale of a goat could purchase larger quantities of maize in April compared with the long term mean, for example, in Tana River County, ToT were better since the proceeds from the sale of a goat could purchase 83 kg of maize in April compared with the LTA of 44 kg which is 89 percent above the long term mean. In Samburu, ToT improved by 19 percent in April as households could purchase 74 kg of maize compared with 62 kg in March which is 54 percent higher than the normal ToT of 48 kg, while in Taita Taveta County, ToT increased significantly from 126 kg in March to 147 kg of maize in April, a 17 percent rise. In most counties, a general rise in the price of goats was the major driver of the improved terms of trade. However, in Embu (Mbeere) County, the terms of trade decreased considerably by 34 percent from 146 kg of maize in March to 96 kg in April signifying that a lesser amount of maize could be purchased from the proceeds of an average sized goat in April compared with previous month. Similarly, in Kajiado, Narok, Kitui, Baringo and Marsabit terms of trade decreased by 25, 19, 17, 16 and 15 percent respectively. The worsening trend in ToT recorded in these counties was largely attributed to a marginal increase in maize prices and decrease in goat prices which was associated with disruption or closure of markets in some areas due to the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, April 2020 Terms of West Pokot Meru Tharaka Turkana Nyeri (Kieni) Embu trade Tana River Embu Taita Taveta Tana River Baringo (ToT) Marsabit Kitui Samburu West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Samburu Nyeri Kwale Garissa Laikipia Laikipia Kilifi Wajir Isiolo Mandera Baringo Garissa Lamu Kajiado Turkana Narok Makueni Marsabit Makueni Isiolo Meru Mandera Lamu Narok Taita Taveta Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Wajir Kitui Health and nutrition The bulletins monitor the proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition, determined by a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurement. The nutrition status of children in most counties improved this month with 15 counties reporting prevalence of children with MUAC less than 135 mm which was close to or below LTA. In addition, 12 counties are now on a stable or improving trend, compared to 15 in March. For instance, in Tana River County the proportion of children at risk of being malnourished reduced from 14.5 percent in March to 13 percent in April. Similarly, in Meru (Meru North), the percentage of children at risk of malnutrition decreased by 6 percent from 10.6 percent in March to 10 percent in April, while in Lamu the proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition dropped by 5 percent from 6.3 percent in March to 6 percent in April. This improvement was attributed to increase in milk consumption and enhanced dietary intake. However, in three counties, Tana River, Lamu and Samburu the proportions of children with MUAC less than 135 mm was higher than the April long term average. The above normal malnutrition status in these counties was associated high disease prevalence and poor maternal care such as poor breastfeeding practices. Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), April 2020 MUAC Lamu Embu Laikipia Kilifi Tana River Baringo Samburu Samburu Marsabit Kwale Garissa Embu Marsabit Tana River Baringo Narok Meru Isiolo Mandera Makueni Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Garissa Kitui Kilifi Tharaka Mandera Meru Kitui Kwale Kajiado Laikipia N arok Tharaka Lamu Taita Taveta T aita Taveta 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. Following the good rains received in April 2020, environmental indicators in all counties have returned to normal with the trend improving in 7 counties while a stable trend was observed in 16 counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, April 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Kwale, Wajir, Lamu, Kajiado, Baringo, Laikipia, Taita Taveta, Isiolo, Garissa, Embu Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Kilifi, , Makueni, (Mbeere), Tana River Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Meru (Meru North), Marsabit, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Recovery 2.0 Other food security challenges Nearly all ASALs counties received average to above average in April that resulted to loss of lives, displacement, flooding and landslides which adversely affected ASAL communities livelihoods, assets and infrastructure. By end of April, floods had displaced more than 100,000 people and killed about 80 people since March when the long rains season started. The most affected ASAL counties include: Tana River, West Pokot, Garissa, Turkana, Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo, Narok, Samburu, Kajiado and Baringo. Furthermore, the heavy rains have increased the risk of health emergencies and provided conditions conducive to the further breeding of desert locusts. New swarms from current breeding will form from mid-June onwards, coinciding with the start of the long rains harvest. Currently, ground and aerial control operations against hopper bands is ongoing in Samburu, Marsabit and Turkana. 3.0 Projected food security situation The projected continuation of the March-April-May (MAM) long rains season in May 2020 is likely to be conducive for agricultural production while the ongoing wet conditions are expected to sustain and further improve the forage and water situation across ASAL counties. In most ASAL areas, the prevailing good livestock body condition and stable maize prices are likely to maintain the current above average livestock-to-cereals terms of trade during the month of May. In addition, increased milk production is expected to result in improved nutritional status of children. However, desert locust infestation which is projected to cause significant damage to forage and crops and the disruption of markets operations due to the COVID 19 pandemic are likely to negatively affect household incomes, prices of food and livestock which might lead to the deterioration of the food security situation in most ASAL counties. 4.0 Recommendations Food and Safety Net Provision of food and cash transfers to food insecure population targeting vulnerable members of the community affected by recent drought and floods including households which have been severely affected by increasing food prices, reduction in income or loss of jobs. as a result of measures put it place to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Health and Nutrition Conduct awareness campaigns on COVID-19 and support hygiene education promotion including installation of hand washing facilities in public spaces. Provision of face masks, hand sanitizers and soap to vulnerable members of the community. Agriculture Provision of certified seeds and other farm inputs. Upscale ground and aerial spraying to control desert locust infestation and spread. LivestockVeterinary Enhance disease control measures including livestock vaccination. Support pasture establishment and conservation as well as stockpiling of county strategic hay reserves. Water Promote rain water harvesting. Community sensitization on treatment of drinking water as most households are accessing water from unprotected sources. Annex 1.0 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th April 2020 BARINGO County 92.16 85.07 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Central 89.81 90.68 Eldama 74.20 79.69 Mogotio 91.68 80.90 North 93.10 89.25 South 94.89 85.83 Tiaty 95.07 84.68 MANDERA County 79.33 66.83 Only Mandera East sub-county is in the normal vegetation greenness class while all Banissa 64.95 53.54 other sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness. M. East 61.49 46.80 Lafey 71.76 55.12 M. North 83.76 68.57 M. South 97.71 82.52 M. West 75.58 72.39 TURKANA County 117.71 117.33 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. This is due to good T Central 122.39 119.13 rains received during the ongoing MAM rainy season. T. East 79.49 70.38 T. Loima 141.64 136.92 T. North 117.9 120.08 T. South 118.26 118.85 T. West 128.36 134.84 MARSABIT County 89.83 70.51 V egetation greenness above normal for the period across all sub counties. Laisaimis 102.96 76.21 Moyale 70.83 57.89 N. Horr 86.28 69.82 Saku 107.67 82.90 WAJIR County 75.85 58.83 The county is in the above normal vegetation greenness band. However, significant W. East 88.23 66.44 decline was noted in Wajir Eldas which currently has normal vegetation greenness W. Eldas 63.38 49.22 W. North 89.92 72.1 W. South 67.25 53.46 W. Tarbaj 80.34 64.03 W. West 81.1 55.31 COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 Colour VCI values Drought Category as at 30th month (3-month) March as at 27th 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 2020 April 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 2020 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit SAMBURU County 91.7 77.19 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. S. East 87.32 70.01 S. North 96.71 83.45 S. West 92.18 84.93 GARISSA County 77.84 68.44 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 70.78 61.71 Daadab 61.14 52.48 Fafi 83.23 73.03 Ijara 93.71 85.62 Lagdera 70.24 59.29 Dujis 59.29 56.3 ISIOLO County 77.90 64.03 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. I. North 80.56 64.46 I. South 73.84 63.37 TANA County 98.96 87.85 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. RIVER Bura 81.98 68.03 Galole 115.81 96.83 Garsen 102.84 99.05 KAJIADO County 105.80 96.98 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. K. Central 98.06 91.35 K. East 101.96 94.60 K. North 94.03 88.73 K. South 102.05 94.11 K. West 115.12 103.7 LAIKIPIA County 87.19 77.27 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. L. East 87.96 82.55 L. North 91.02 79.13 L. West 79.66 71.25 THARAKA County 83.70 80.09 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. NITHI Chuka 83.56 89.35 Maara 80.11 86.05 Tharaka 84.91 74.69 WEST County 101.9 96.36 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. POKOT Kacheliba 104.44 94.58 Kapenguria 107.24 101.71 Pokot South 97.17 102.96 Sigor 95.55 91.17 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS EMBU County 94.75 94.92 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Manyatta 87.82 92.39 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Mbeere North 94.69 93.57 Mbeere South 99.49 97.5 Runyenjes 84.92 91.15 KITUI County 100.82 94.70 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kitui Central 101.06 98.20 Kitui East 105.53 98.27 Mwingi Central 96.74 88.63 Mwingi North 87.05 76.87 Mwingi West 108.6 100.67 Kitui Rural 103.98 103.79 Kitui South 103.68 100.27 Kitui West 109.19 101.24 MAKUENI County 102.65 99.46 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Kaiti 105.17 103.38 Kibwezi East 97.50 95.86 Kibwezi West 101.90 99.87 Kilome 108.19 105.12 Makueni 106.17 98.23 Mbooni 106.85 102.59 MERU County 87.79 85.35 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Buuri 93.11 92.30 Central Imenti 83.65 86.55 Igembe Central 90.24 82.13 Igembe North 89.97 80.13 Igembe South 78.97 75.26 North Imenti 89.00 90.26 South Imenti 76.05 85.82 Tigania East 86.72 82.68 Tigania West 99.63 99.46 NYERI County 86.96 86.66 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kieni 85.36 83.79 Mathira 80.55 79.97 Mukurweini 106.61 106.72 Town 100.93 98.41 Othaya 86.81 90.37 Tetu 86.83 90.5 KILIFI County 84.45 86.20 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Ganze 89.5 95.66 Kaloleni 89.99 100.39 Magarini 80.38 80.38 Malindi 80.7 83.46 Kilifi-North 88.51 82.41 Rabai 93.87 99.48 Kilifi-South 100.29 95.55 KWALE County 97.41 101.81 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kinango 106.65 105.45 Lungalunga 94.14 97.3 Matuga 90.54 96.54 Msambweni 92.00 93.58 LAMU County 90.74 89.19 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 89.8 88.89 Lamu West 91.28 89.36 TAITA County 105.70 107.94 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. TAVETA Mwatate 107.2 107.36 Taveta 106.68 103.13 Voi 106.71 109.76 Wundanyi 113.42 112.32 NAROK County 91.18 91.78 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Narok-East 96.41 97.00 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Emurua Dikirr 90.84 83.02 Kilgoris 87.39 85.70 Narok North 83.4 84.99 Narok South 92.75 94.33 Narok West 93.31 94.09 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification