APRIL 2024 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The onset of the Long Rains was timely across all Arid and Semi- Arid (ASAL) counties all through the third week of March to the first week of April. Subsequently, enhanced rainfall received throughout the month of April leading to extreme weather events in most ASALs counties. Enhanced rains were thus characterized by extreme wet conditions and floods in low laying zones in particular counties like Garissa, Tana River, Kitui, Marsabit, Isiolo, Samburu, Makueni, Kajiado. The floods had varied level of damage in these counties. The positive impacts included Figure 1: Drought Phase Classification in April 2024 good water recharge, vegetation regeneration and good crop performance. Negative impacts included human and livestock deaths including destruction of homes, schools and infrastructure that disrupted markets function. Optimal livestock productivity as evidenced by the good body condition and increasing milk production levels driven by shorter trekking distances to water sources and grazing areas was noted in all the counties. Consequently, based on these range of indicators that fell within their usual seasonal ranges, all the counties were categorized under the Normal drought phase. Despite the aforementioned impacts that continued to undermine the food security situation, response interventions by the Government and other stakeholders to a greater extent sufficed in mitigating the impacts of extreme weather variability. 1.1 Observed Drought Indicators 1.1.1 April 2024 Rainfall Performance Ordinarily the month of April marks the peak of the Long Rains season across all the ASAL counties except those within the coastal marginal agriculture cluster (CMA) whose rainfall peaks in May. Analysis of the rainfall performance throughout the reference period indicated that majority of the counties received near to above average rainfall (Figure 2). The Rains were characterized by moderate to severe storms in some counties. Generally, wet weather conditions were prevalent in most places with a few areas in Taita Taveta like Voi experiencing sunny conditions. Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Baringo recorded rainfall that was 151-200 percent of the long-term mean (LTM) for April while rainfall experienced in Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado and Nyeri accounted for 201-300 percent of the rainfall normally received over the subject month. Extremely high amounts exceeding 300 percent of the April LTM were recorded in Turkana (Turkana Central, parts of Turkana South, North and Loima). Garissa, Lamu, Tana Figure 2: April 2024 Rainfall Performance River and some parts of Marsabit received rainfall that represented 126-150 percent of the LTM with Kilifi, Kwale and Taita Taveta recording rainfall that was 76-125 percent of the LTM. 1.1.2 May 2024 Rainfall Outlook The outlook for May indicates that majority of the ASAL counties are likely to experience near average to above average rainfall (Figure 3). Equally, periodic storms are also likely to be experienced in some counties before the forecasted cessation over the third dekad of May. Above average rainfall is anticipated throughout the month in Baringo, West Pokot, Narok and the Western parts of Laikipia with the one forecasted for Turkana and Samburu being occasional. Intense rainfall is expected across the first dekad with progression throughout the month in Nyeri, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Eastern parts of Laikipia. Figure 3: May 2024 Rainfall Forecast Rainfall in these areas is forecasted to be above average with intermittent storms likely. With respect to the Pastoral North East cluster; near to average rainfall is expected over the reference period. The aforementioned scenario will be most likely for Marsabit county. Near to above average rainfall punctuated with sporadic storms is anticipated in counties within the South Eastern Marginal Agriculture cluster (Makueni and Kitui) and the same will most likely be replicated in Tana River, Taita Taveta and Kajiado. Total amounts of rainfall expected in counties falling within the coastal marginal agriculture cluster (Kilifi, Kwale and Lamu) are likely to be near to above average with May signifying the peak of the Long Rains season for these areas. 1.2 Vegetation condition Favorable vegetation condition was observed across all the ASAL counties over the subject month under review with significant improvement being noted since the previous review as soundly affirmed by the VCI-3month (Figure 4). Throughout the month of April, vegetation greenness remained above the normal vegetation greenness threshold as measured by the VCI-3month depicting the prevalent very good conditions. The observed vegetation condition could purely be attributed to the previous good Short Rains season coupled with the enhanced rainfall received since the timely onset of the Long Rains across majority of the counties resulting to massive vegetation regeneration. Consequently, dense canopies were thus evident over most areas whose robust health was further aided by below average land surface temperatures. Notably, all counties and their respective sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness over the period under review. Vegetation Condition Index Vegetation Condition Index March 2024 April 2024 Figure 4: Maps Illustrating Vegetation Condition Improvement from March to April 2024 Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2024 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe Vegetation (0) (0) Deficit Moderate (0) (0) Vegetation Deficit Normal Vegetation (0) (6) Greenness Baringo (Mogotio, Baringo South, Tiaty), Laikipia (Laikipia West), Turkana (Turkana East), West Pokot (Kacheliba) Above-normal (23) (107) Vegetation Baringo, Mandera Baringo (Central, North, Eldama Ravine), Mandera (South, Greenness Wajir, Marsabit, North, East, Lafey, Banisa and West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, Garissa, Embu, South, West, Eldas and East), Marsabit (North Horr, Saku, Kitui, Makueni, Laisamis, Moyale), Garissa (Ijara, Lagdera, Fafi, Balambala, Meru, Nyeri, Kilifi, Township, Daadab), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, South Kwale, Lamu, and Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Narok, Isiolo, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West) Makueni Turkana, Garissa, (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni, Kibwezi Tana River, East), Meru (Buuri, Central-Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe Kajiado, Samburu, North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania Taita Taveta, East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Laikipia Nyeri Town, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Malindi, Rabai, Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Narok (West, South, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North), West Pokot (Pokot South, Kapenguria, Sigor), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), Turkana (Central, West, Loima, South, North), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Galole, Garsen, Bura), Kajiado (Central, East, South, North, West), Samburu (East, North, West), Taita Taveta (Voi, Mwatate, Taveta, Wundanyi), Laikipia (East, North) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of forage was generally good across the counties during the period under review. (Table 2). The above average rainfall received in April following the attainment of the onset over the third dekad of March to first dekad of April coupled with below average land surface temperature promoted massive regeneration of forage. Table 2.0: Pasture and Browse Condition, April 2024 Pasture Browse Kajiado, Kilifi, Lamu Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Laikipia, Meru Kitui, Laikipia, Wajir Makueni, Marsabit Lamu, Makueni Narok, Samburu Marsabit, Samburu, Baringo, Garissa Narok, Baringo Mandera, Wajir Garissa, Mandera Taita Taveta, Embu Taita Taveta, Meru Kwale, Isiolo, Nyeri, Tana River, Embu Turkana, Kwale, Isiolo, Nyeri, West Pokot Turkana Tana River West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Significant improvement in the body condition for all livestock species was observed in all the counties ranging from fair to good (Table 3). Among the drivers of the observed body condition included: availability of quality palatable forage in desirable quantities along the normal grazing zones within household vicinity coupled with considerably reduced trekking distance to water sources. Comparatively, the observed livestock body throughout the month of April was normal to above normal compared to this time of the year. Table 3.0: Livestock Body Condition, April 2024 Cattle GoatsSheep Lamu Kajiado, Kilifi, Lamu Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui Turkana Kitui, Makueni Turkana Makueni, Meru, Narok West Pokot Meru, Samburu Samburu, West Pokot Tana River Narok, Baringo Baringo, Mandera Tharaka Nithi Mandera, Wajir Taita Taveta, Wajir Taita Taveta Tana River, Kwale Kwale, Marsabit Tharaka Nithi, Isiolo Embu, Garissa Marsabit, Embu, Nyeri, Laikipia, Nyeri, Garissa, Laikipia Isiolo 1.3.3 Milk production Increase in milk production was reported in 57 percent of the counties with the remaining 43 percent reporting a stable trend. The increase is attributable to high rates of kidding and lamping in small stock and calving in cattle plus improved livestock body condition due to stable forage regime and low morbidity rates. (Table 4). The production level over the reference period was above the usual seasonal range in approximately 61 percent of the counties and at par with the normal level in about 39 percent of the counties. Samburu and Embu recorded the lowest production of 0.5 and 0.8 litres among the Arid and Semi-Arid counties in that sequence. Noteworthy, mortalities witnessed over the previous seasons as a result of drought and floods still had a bearing in the production levels witnessed over the current season. Table 4.0: Milk production, April 2024 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worse LTA ning Baringo, Isiolo Garissa Isiolo, Kajiado Baringo Mandera, Wajir, Embu, Meru, Mandera, Narok Garissa Turkana, Lamu, Samburu Marsabit, Wajir Samburu Kajiado, Kwale West- Pokot, Tana River Kilifi, Embu Kilifi, Kitui, Tana River Turkana, Nyeri Kwale, Lamu, Nyeri, Narok Marsabit Laikipia, Kitui Meru, Makueni Laikipia Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita- Taveta Makueni, Taita- Taveta West Pokot 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Suspected cases of foot and mouth disease (FMD) was reported in Huhoini (Igwamiti ward, Laikipia West sub county), Siana and Nkareta wards in Narok West and Narok North sub counties and Lelan in Pokot South sub county in West Pokot county. Equally, lumpy skin disease (LSD) was reported in Riachu, Mwiyogo and Malee in Tigithi ward,of Laikipia East sub county. Alarming occurrences of camel abortions were reported in Maalimin and Dujis locations within Lagdera sub county of Garissa county and some parts of Mandera while reports of cattle deaths continue emerging from Nanighi in Garissa county and the cause is yet to be established.. Rift Valley Fever (RVF) continue to be controlled inin Marsabit county with cases of tsetse flies among the large stock being noted in the plains of North Horr. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Improving to a stable trend in the market price of cattle was reported in estimated 82 percent of the ASAL counties across April (Table 5). However, decline in price was recorded in Turkana, Samburu, Narok and Tharaka Nithi attributable to market surplus as a result of the livestock being within the homesteads and therefore readily disposed coupled with destruction of access roads by floods thus limiting market access for competitive prices. On the other hand, the positive trend reported in majority of the areas was due to the improved cattle body condition. The prevailing cattle market price was above the usual seasonal price in all counties except in Taita Taveta whose reported price was at par with the long-term average. Above average cattle price was as a consequence of the continuous improvement in the body condition of the species driven by better rangeland conditions since the previous short rains season. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, April 2024 Baringo, Garissa Taita- Marsabit Baringo Samburu Isiolo, Mandera Taveta Kilifi, Kitui Garissa Turkana Marsabit, Samburu Kwale Isiolo, Nyeri Narok Tana River, Meru Lamu, Meru Mandera Tharaka- Turkana, Wajir Makueni Tana River Nithi Embu, Kitui, Lamu Wajir, Embu Kajiado, Kilifi Kajiado Kwale, Laikipia Laikipia Makueni, Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri, West Pokot West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices Save for Turkana, Samburu, Taita Taveta and Tharaka Nithi that reported a negative trend in the price of goat attributed to over supply to markets driven by increased food needs at the household level over the April holiday and damage of road and market infrastructure,however the trend remained stable and improving across the ASAL counties(Table 6). Price positivity in the aforementioned counties was driven by improved goat body condition, low market volumes and high demand for utilization during the festive period. The prevailing market price of goat across all the counties was above the normal prices for the period and that could be attributed to sustained improvement in the body condition. Based on the current demand-supply dynamics and the hoarding practices by pastoralists as a result of the good rangeland conditions; the price is projected to remain above the seasonal ranges for at least two months. Table 6.0: Goat prices, April 2024 Above LTA At Below Improving Stable Worsening LTA LTA Baringo, Garissa, Lamu Garissa Baringo, Isiolo Isiolo, Mandera, Narok Mandera Marsabit, Marsabit, Wajir, Nyeri Tana River Embu, Samburu, Embu, Kwale Wajir Kilifi, Kwale Tana River, Meru, Kitui Kajiado Laikipia, Narok Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi Kitui, Lamu Makueni Taita Taveta, Laikipia Meru, Nyeri Tharaka Nithi, Makueni West Pokot West Pokot Samburu 1.4 Crop production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture, South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas of River Tana, Daua, Turkwel among others. The summary table below illustrates the situation across the ASAL counties. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production PNE Tana The enhanced rainfall had resulted to flooding in the county with River significant proportion of the cropland remaining submerged in water hence reducing the area under crop production. Irrigated crops in the major irrigation schemes were at various vegetative growth stages. SEMA Kitui Main crops (millet, cowpeas, green grams, sorghum, and maize) planted earlier in the season were at weeding stage and generally in good condition. Makueni Crops were at germination to knee high stage and in good condition. However, crops in parts of Kibwezi East and Kibwezi West sub counties were experiencing moisture stress following poor distribution of rains in the area. Infestation of invasive weeds was also hindering farming activities especially in Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone. Meru Leaching in the low-lying areas had led to stunting of maize and yellowing of beans.. Poor crop performance was being experienced in parts of Tigania with the beans and maize being at the vegetative stage. Agro- Baringo Flooding of farms was reported in Sandai, Barwessa, Kabutiei and pastoral Kapluk locations. Acreage under crop production was anticipated to reduce further due to the expected further flooding. Laikipia Maize was at germination stage to knee high, beans at germination stage to four leaf stage and potatoes at germination stage to tuber initiation stage. High cost of farm inputs at the stockist and high cost of casual labour were major constraints to optimal production. Narok Crops in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone were at knee high stage with the condition of maize and beans being fair to good. The ongoing flooding had led to extreme loses especially along the irrigation schemes. About 60-80 percent of the crop is submerged with roughly 20-50 percent being washed away in these areas. 1.4.1 Maize prices Generally, the price of maize was stable and on reducing trend as result of good harvest from the previous short rains season.. Factors promoting price decline ranged from injection of more supplies to local markets by traders that were sourcing from markets adjacent to the respective counties, bumper harvests following a good short rains season, decline in fuel pump prices hence reduced transportation costs to appreciation of the Kenyan Shilling however destruction of roads by floods had some slight impact on markets due to limited access. . Table 8.0: Maize prices, April 2024 Above Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening LTA to LTA Garissa Isiolo Baringo, Embu Baringo Garissa, Embu, Tana- Mandera Kajiado, Kitui Samburu Kitui, Laikipia River, Marsabit Kwale, Laikipia Tana River Mandera, Makueni Turkana Samburu Makueni, Meru Kajiado Marsabit, Wajir Wajir Narok Nyeri Nyeri Turkana, Meru, Kilifi Taita Taveta West Pokot Lamu, Kwale Lamu Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Isiolo Kilifi Tharaka- Nithi 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households The distance to household water sources remained stable and on improving trend across the counties . The decline in trekking distance could be attributed to improved water availability in facilities adjacent to households following the significant recharge that took place. Currently, the distance averages 4.7 kilometres compared to 5.5 kilometres previously among the Arid counties. Mandera county reported the longest distance of 8.2 kilometres while Isiolo recorded the shortest distance of 1.7 kilometres. In relation to the semi-arid counties, the distance currently averages 2.7 kilometres compared to 3.8 kilometres across March. The longest distance of 5.6 kilometres among the semi-arid counties was recorded in Lamu while the shortest of 1.1 kilometres was reported in Kilifi. The prevailing trekking distance in 70 percent of the counties was below the usual seasonal range and at par with the long-term average in four counties as illustrated in table 9. On the other hand, lower than normal trekking distance was boosted by sustained recharge of water facilities from the previous short rains season into the current long rains season. Table 9.0: Distance from Households to Main Water Sources, April 2024 Tana- Baringo, Isiolo Baringo, Isiolo Garissa River, Mandera, Meru Mandera, Kitui Kwale Kitui Marsabit, Nyeri Marsabit, Lamu Lamu Samburu, Narok Samburu, Narok Makueni Turkana, Embu Tana River, Nyeri Wajir Kajiado, Kilifi Turkana, Wajir Kwale Laikipia, Garissa Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru Taita Taveta Makueni, Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta, Embu West Pokot Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources remained stable across ASAL counties, showing a positive trend due to enhanced long rains. In arid counties, Mandera reported the longest trekking distance at 9.2 kilometers whereas Tana River County having the shortest at 2.0 kilometers. In semi-arid counties, trekking distances ranged from 2.0 kilometers to 6.5 kilometers, with Lamu reporting the longest and Tharaka Nithi the shortest distances. The improved livestock access to water sources is attributed to the successful performance of the current long rains in 2024. Table 10.0: Distance from Livestock Grazing area to Main Water Sources, April 2024 Mandera Baringo, Garissa Baringo, Garissa Tana Kwale Isiolo, Marsabit Isiolo, Marsabit River Makueni Tharaka Nithi Samburu, Wajir Kilifi Nyeri Samburu, Turkana Turkana, Embu Makueni West Tana River, Embu Kajiado, Kitui Narok Pokot Wajir, Kajiado Kwale, Laikipia West- Kilifi, Kitui, Lamu Meru, Nyeri Pokot Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Mandera Laikipia, Meru Tharaka Nithi Lamu 1.6 Terms of trade Terms of trade were stable and favorable across ASAL counties. Improved terms of trade is as result of stablising livestock prices against the reducing maize prices as result of good harvest from the previous season.. T Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, April 2024 Baringo, Garissa, Meru Taita- Baringo, Lamu Isiolo, Meru Isiolo, Mandera, Narok Taveta Garissa Marsabit Marsabit, Samburu Lamu Mandera Samburu Tana River, Turkana Tana River Embu Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Wajir, Kajiado Kwale Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Kitui, Makueni Laikipia Laikipia, West Pokot West Pokot Turkana Makueni, Nyeri Kilifi, Narok Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Tharaka Nithi 1.7. Health and nutrition Improvement in the nutrition situation was noted across the ASAL counties (Table 12). Among the notable drivers cited for the observed positive trend included: improved access to milk for consumption and stabilized food security situation at the household level and improved hygiene and sanitation practices. Nutrition situation deteriorated in West Pokot and Mandera as a consequence of non-food related drivers such as increased morbidity rates for diarrhea, malaria and other water borne diseases and poor childcare practices. Overall, the reported malnutrition rates remained below the normal ranges in approximately 65 percent of the ASAL counties but outside the usual ranges in roughly 35 percent of the counties. The positive situation could be attributed to the general improvement in food security across most ASAL counties due to improved crop and livestock productivity. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), April 2024 Baringo Isiolo, Mandera Baringo, Garissa Kitui Mandera Garissa Marsabit, Samburu Isiolo, Marsabit Lamu West Pokot Turkana Tana River, Wajir Samburu, Wajir Nyeri Kitui Embu, Kajiado Tana River, Embu Taita- Makueni Kilifi, Kwale, Meru Turkana, Kajiado Taveta Tharaka Laikipia, Narok Kilifi, Kwale Nithi Nyeri, Taita Taveta Laikipia, Makueni West Meru, Narok Pokot Tharaka Nithi 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties were classified to be at the Normal phase with a stable to improving trend as shown in table 13. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, April 2024 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Isiolo, Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Samburu, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Tharaka Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Nithi, Tana River, Wajir, West Pokot Alert Alarm Emergency Recovery 3.0 Recommendations Table 14: Priority Recommended Interventions No. Sector Intervention 1. Food and Food assistance to households displaced by floods and scaling up safety nets shock responsive cash transfers targeting the population categorized under IPC phase 3 as a consequence of losing livelihoods during the historic prolonged drought across the ASAL counties. 2. Coordination Support to County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate floods response activities and implementation of resilience strengthening initiatives through convening regular meetings, monitoring and reporting. 3. Livestock Conduct restocking exercise targeting areas that reported high sector mortality rates and vaccination drives against diseases associated with wet conditions such as Rift Valley Fever. Improving access to extension services 4. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; Provision of water treatment tabs; and Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof water harvesting. 5. Peace and Facilitating intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource-use security sector agreements; Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. 6. Education Rehabilitation of infrastructure destroyed by floods while promoting sector hygiene and sanitation practices in learning institutions. 7. Health and Promotion of hygiene and sanitation activities within high risk nutrition communities and managing malnutrition through supply of essential sector nutrition commodities (Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food RUTF and Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food-RUSF). Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th April, 2024 County Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 VCI Colou month month values (3- Drought Category as at as at month) 31st 30th Vegetation Mar April 50 greenness above 2024 2024 normal Normal vegetation 35 - 50 greenness Moderate vegetation 20 - 35 Severe vegetation 10 - 20 Extreme vegetation Baringo County 52.17 50.68 Vegetation greenness remained above Central 76.35 70.16 normal across three Sub counties while Mogotio, Tiaty and Baringo South recorded North 57.05 52.05 normal vegetation greenness just like the South 45.15 43.01 previous month. Ravine 79 78.2 Mogotio 41.61 40.92 Tiaty 46.57 42.53 Mandera County 87.45 77.13 Lafey 89.3 74.69 North 85.68 74.66 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Banissa 65.85 52.15 greenness remained above normal across all West 81.42 79.13 South 107.51 99.17 81 67.2 Turkana County 57.27 68.48 All the Sub counties recorded above normal East 37.39 41.88 vegetation greenness except Turkana East whose vegetation condition was within the South 51.16 54.7 normal band just like the previous month. Loima 70.39 75.66 Central 55.7 62.91 West 70.85 78.14 North 54.73 67.32 Marsabit County 73.77 72.44 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Laisamis 89.18 77.27 greenness remained above normal across all Moyale 77.46 73.17 North Horr 62.34 61.79 Saku 106.88 87.15 Wajir County 86.77 78.3 Stability in the condition of vegetation was Tarbaj 90.03 82.69 observed over April with the vegetation greenness being above normal across the North 96.31 89.58 respective Sub counties. South 76.1 76.82 West 98.17 77.64 Eldas 89.42 76.5 East 89.64 80.25 Samburu County 74.55 75.74 All the Sub counties reported above normal East 76.88 76.03 vegetation greenness with a slight shift in the VCI-3month values from those recorded North 78.08 81.07 previously across the County. West 52.52 51.63 Garissa County 79.6 76.09 Stability in the condition of vegetation was Balambala 76.42 71.39 witnessed in April with the vegetation greenness being above normal across all sub Township 81.69 74.42 counties. Ijara 91.79 91.85 Fafi 78.76 75.07 Lagdera 84.58 79.61 Dadaab 65.29 62.69 Isiolo County 92.63 78.12 Similar to the previous month, vegetation North 98.9 85.73 greenness remained above normal across all South 83.05 75.18 Tana River County 68.79 70.07 Bura 71.87 67.15 Notable improvement in the condition of Galole 59.43 65.19 vegetation was witnessed in April with the vegetation greenness being above normal. Garsen 72.03 75.16 Kajiado County 88.12 85.87 The county reported above normal Central 89.13 81.08 vegetation greenness with a significant improvement being witnessed in Kajiado East 87.46 79.90 North. North 87.1 95.47 South 82.43 74.63 West 92.48 87.71 Embu County 76.54 77.36 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Manyatta 84.41 90.32 greenness remained above normal across all Mbeere North 74.43 75.22 Mbeere South 72.07 72.66 Runyenjes 89.26 93.45 Kitui County 64.36 65.82 Above normal vegetation greenness was Central 81.69 83.2 observed across all the Sub counties. East 61.61 60.15 Rural 78.1 76.8 South 67.05 68.09 West 73.54 69.17 Mwingi 56.62 55.77 Central Mwingi North 57.42 53.54 Mwingi West 76.54 71.62 Makueni County 85.85 81.31 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Kaiti 93.96 97.18 greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Significant regeneration Kibwezi East 88.49 75.12 was witnessed in Kaiti. Kibwezi West 79.99 76.18 Kilome 90.26 91.53 Makueni 83.15 80.79 Mbooni 89.33 87.47 Meru County 82.12 78.28 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Buuri 85.6 86.54 greenness remained above normal across all Central-Imenti 79.26 80.68 Igembe Central 79.63 75.57 Igembe North 90.98 85.16 Igembe South 70.63 74.49 North Imenti 78.45 79.18 South Imenti 88.87 95.4 Tigania East 74.48 75.42 Tigania West 83.75 80.69 Nyeri County 81.67 88.57 Kieni 78.74 83.61 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Mathira 76.7 85.93 greenness remained above normal across all Mukurweini 89.47 92.14 Nyeri Town 91.9 82.75 Othaya 89.2 94.36 Tetu 86.95 90.26 Kilifi County 70.53 71.39 Above normal vegetation greenness was Ganze 66.22 72.27 observed across all the Sub counties. Kaloleni 68.79 65.07 Kilifi North 71.22 70.55 Kilifi South 60.73 58.18 Magarini 72.75 71.22 Malindi 72.15 77.65 Rabai 76.41 76.94 Kwale County 83.72 82.93 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Kinango 83.3 81.46 greenness remained above normal across all Lunga Lunga 85.51 84.68 Matuga 84.35 82.39 Msambweni 78.37 75.84 Lamu County 101.23 102.72 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Lamu East 107.48 109.23 greenness remained above normal across all Lamu West 97.61 99.19 Taita County 85.87 82.51 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Taveta Mwatate 90.62 86.36 greenness remained above normal across all the Sub counties. Regeneration in Voi was Taveta 98.9 92.4 fair due to the low amount of rainfall Voi 77.57 78.49 received. Wundanyi 102.79 97.82 Narok County 87.95 88.6 Above normal vegetation greenness was Emurua Dikirr 95.74 91.88 observed across all the Sub counties. Kilgoris 82.7 79.05 Narok East 88.33 82.56 Narok North 75.04 76.92 Narok South 92.41 96.18 Narok West 92.2 86.83 West Pokot County 48.86 51.49 Similar to the previous month, vegetation Kacheliba 39.98 46.3 greenness remained above normal in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zones of Pokot Kapenguria 50.15 53.61 South and West while Pokot North and Pokot South 72.95 77.12 Central reported normal vegetation Sigor 49.7 53.28 greenness just like the previous month. Tharaka County 67.27 63.11 Nithi Chuka 81.19 78.36 Maara 83.13 87.22 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all Tharaka 56.95 51.98 Laikipia County 61.36 56.33 Above normal vegetation greenness was Laikipia East 69.29 68.14 observed across all the Sub counties. Laikipia North 64.21 61.76 Laikipia West 52.2 42.79 Table 16.0: Indicators Monitored by the Drought Early Warning System Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop condition Access Terms of trade (goatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls Figure 5: Drought Cycle for Phase Classification within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 16). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: Normal, Alert, Alarm, Emergency or Recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle.