OCTOBER 2022 1. Drought situation overview The drought situation continues to worsen in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the four successive failed rains seasons. The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance currently stands at 4.35 million based on 2022 long rains food and nutritional security assessment report. Eleven (11) counties namely; Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Laikipia, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir, are in Alarm drought phase while Nine (9) counties including Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase. The remaining three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 942,000 cases of children aged 6- 59 months acutely malnourished and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. NB For detailed county analysis, please visit the NDMA website www.ndma.go.ke 2. Key indicators performance 2.1 September Rainfall Performance Analysis of the September 2022 monthly rainfall indicates that the Pastoral North East (PNE) counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received trace rainfall between 10mm to 20mm of rainfall totals. The South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties also received trace rainfall. The Coast Marginal Agriculture (CMA) counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties received (25). Some parts of Agro-pastoral (AGP) cluster; Baringo and West Pokot received JJA rainfall that was normal in the range of 101mm - 125mm of rainfall totals with some areas especially Pokot south, Eldama ravine, Narok West and Kilgoris receiving high rainfall totals between 176 - 200mm. Figure 1. September 2022 Rainfall Performance 2.2 Rainfall Forecast for October The rainfall outlook for the month of October is illustrated in figure 2. Most ASAL counties including Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Meru, Kitui, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Embu and Kajiado are forecasted to receive highly depressed rainfall. Pocket areas in the counties of Turkana, Samburu, Laikipia, Nyeri, Embu, Kajiado and Narok are forecasted to recieve Near average rainfall. During the month of October, Turkana, West Pokot, Baringo, parts of Laikipia and Narok are forecasted to received Near average with a slight tendency to above average rainfall. This is in tandem with expected timely onset of OND rainfall season in the western parts of Kenya. Figure 1. October 2022 Rainfall forecast 2.3 Vegetation condition September 2021 September 2022 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) September 20212022 The month of September 2022 indicated a slight deterioration in vegetation condition across the ASALs compared to August 2022.The deterioration is associated with poor performance of off- season showers of June-July-August (JJA) season in most ASAL counties except for good performance in the western parts of Kenya, Turkana, Baringo and West Pokot counties. No countysub-county was in Extreme vegetation deficit. Two (2) counties namely Isiolo and Marsabit are in Severe vegetation deficit while nine (9) counties including; Mandera, Samburu, Wajir, Garissa, Kajiado, Laikipia, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Tana River are in Moderate vegetation deficit. The following nine (9) counties including; Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Nyeri, Meru, Embu, Kitui, Kwale and Narok recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following three (3) counties including; Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu, recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in September 2022 is worse as compared to the same period in September 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of September 2022 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe (2) (17) vegetation Marsabit, Isiolo Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South), Kajiado (Central), deficit Kilifi (Ganze), Laikipia (North), Mandera (East), Marsabit (Moyale, Saku, Laisamis, North Horr), Meru (Igembe North), Nyeri (Town), Samburu (East), Wajir (West, Eldas). Moderate (9) (42) vegetation Mandera, Wajir, deficit Samburu, Garissa, Embu (Mbeere South), Garissa (Township, Fafi, Daadab), Kajiado (East, Tana River, Kajiado, North, South), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Magarini, Malindi), Kitui (Central, East, Laikipia, Kilifi, Taita Rural, Mwingi North), Kwale (Kinango), Laikipia (East), Makueni Taveta (Kibwezi East, Kilome), Mandera (Lafey, Banissa, North, West, South), Meru (Buuri, Igembe Central, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Mathira), Taita Taveta (Voi, Mwatate, Wundanyi, Taveta), Tana River (Bura, Garsen, Galole), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana (Loima, North), Wajir (North, South), Narok (South, East). Normal (9) (30) vegetation Turkana, Tharaka greenness Nithi, Embu, Kitui, Embu (Manyata, Mbeere North, Runyenjes), Garissa (Ijara), Kajiado Makueni, Narok, (West), Kilifi (North), Kitui (South, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West), Meru, Nyeri, Kwale Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia (West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West) Meru (Igembe South, North Imenti), Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu), Samburu (East), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), Turkana (East, Central), Wajir (Tarbaj, East), West Pokot (Sigor) Narok (North, West). Vegetation (3) (22) greenness Baringo, West Pokot, Baringo (Central, North, South, Eldama Ravine, South, Tiaty), Kilifi Above normal Lamu (South, Rabai), Kwale (Lunga Lunga), Lamu (East, West), Makueni (Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (South Imenti, Central Imenti), Turkana (South, West) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, Pokot South), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris). Table 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), September 2022 3. Livestock production 3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally poor as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse conditions are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month due to minimal precipitation in the rangelands. The current pasture and browse conditions are estimated to last for less than one month in livestock concentration grazing areas. The condition of pasture and browse was however good in Baringo, West Pokot, and Lamu counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, September 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Embu Kilifi Baringo Embu Kilifi Baringo Garissa Kwale Lamu Garissa Kwale West Pokot Isiolo Nyeri West Pokot Isiolo Laikipia Kajiado Samburu Kajiado Lamu Kitui Kitui Meru (North) Laikipia Makueni Narok Makueni Mandera Nyeri Mandera Marsabit Samburu Marsabit Taita Taveta Tana River Meru (North) Tharaka Nithi Narok Turkana 3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition ranged between fair to poor across ASAL counties. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions except for Kilifi and West Pokot counties which reported good body condition for cattle and goats as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of poor regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, September 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Kilifi Garissa Baringo Kilifi Isiolo Embu West Pokot Isiolo Embu Lamu Kajiado Kitui Kajiado Kitui West Pokot Lamu Kwale Mandera Kwale Laikipia Meru Marsabit Laikipia Makueni Narok Turkana Makueni Mandera Nyeri Wajir Meru Marsabit Taita Taveta Narok Samburu Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Tana River Samburu Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River 3.3 Milk production Milk production was below normal due to the poor forage regime in the counties experiencing drought situation. The JJA season did not generate adequate showers for minor pasture and browse generation. However, Kwale, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi counties recorded above the LTA. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, September 2022 Milk Tharaka Nithi Kwale Baringo Baringo Embu Garissa Makueni Embu Kajiado Kitui Isiolo Production Laikipia Garissa Kilifi Lamu Kwale West Pokot Isiolo Laikipia Marsabit Makueni Kajiado Meru Nyeri Mandera Kilifi Samburu Taita Taveta Narok Kitui West Pokot Wajir Tana River Lamu Turkana Tharaka Nithi NB: Turkana had zero readings 3.4 Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices remained unstable compared to the previous month owing to poor livestock body condition as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However; Kwale, Lamu, Makueni, Narok and Tana River reported above the LTA due to increased demand of livestock. Five counties reported an improving trend in prices whereas eight counties reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, September 2022 Cattle Kwale West Pokot Baringo Baringo Kitui Embu Lamu Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Lamu Garissa Makueni Kajiado Kwale Makueni Isiolo Narok Kilifi West Pokot Narok Kilifi Tana River Kitui Nyeri Laikipia Laikipia Taita Taveta Mandera Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Meru Meru Samburu Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir 3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in most of the ASAL counties were within the long-term averages. However, majority of the counties hard hit by drought recorded below LTA. The trend was however stable and worsening. There is an improving trend in Kajiado and Kwale. The following counties, Garissa, Isiolo, Nyeri and Tharaka Nithi reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat Prices, September 2022 Goat Kajiado Baringo Turkana Kajiado Baringo Garissa Kilifi Embu Tharaka Kwale Kilifi Isiolo Kwale Garissa Nithi Kitui Nyeri Laikipia Kitui Wajir Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Makueni Lamu Marsabit Samburu Narok Meru Isiolo Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta Mandera Tana River Nyeri 3.6 Livestock Mortality Diminished pasture and water resources in most of the ASAL counties led to increased trekking distances to water points and grazing sites for livestock leading to worsening livestock body condition scores and accelerating mortalities across all species. High livestock mortalities have been reported in Samburu, Mandera, Isiolo, Lamu, Marsabit and Garissa counties. 3.7 Crop production In the marginal agricultural areas of CMA counties: In Kilifi County, few farmers were still harvesting maize, green grams and cowpeas during the month under review. In some areas, in Kwale County, harvesting of seasonal crops was complete with harvests having been realized only in the mixed farming livelihood zone while the livestock farming livelihood zone posted nil harvests. In the SEMA counties: In Kitui, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi counties, land preparation had started in anticipation of the 2022 short rains. In addition to rain-fed cropping, farmers along the main rivers (Athi, Tana, Tiva, Thua Kikuo, Kaiti and Thwake) had horticultural crops that were at various stages of development. 3.7.1 Maize prices Maize prices in all ASAL counties were high and above average affecting the purchasing power of households.The prices were on increasing trend and thus require close monitoring.As compared to similar period,the prices were unstable as demonstrated in Table 7. Table 7.0: Maize prices, September 2022 Indicat Current status Trend or Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Baringo Isiolo Kilifi Garissa Garissa Kitui Kwale Embu Kajiado Lamu Samburu Isiolo Marsabit Mandera Taita Taveta Kajiado Meru Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Nyeri Turkana Kitui Tana River Embu Kwale Wajir Laikipia Laikipia Makueni Makueni Narok Mandera West Pokot Taita-Taveta 4. WATER RESOURCE ACCESS 4.1 Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 17 counties have their distances to water for households currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general increasing trend in distance to household from water source. The current return distance ranges from 3 kilometers in Baringo to 16.3 kilometers in Mandera as compared to an average LTA of 5 kilometers normally for arid counties. West Pokot had the lowest trekking distance of 2.6 kilometers as compared to Kajiado that had the highest of 8.1 kilometers for Semi-arid counties. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, September 2022 Distance Embu Samburu Isiolo Baringo Kilifi Embu Garissa Kilifi West Pokot Makueni Laikipia Garissa Kajiado Kitui Narok Mandera Isiolo households Kwale Baringo West Pokot Marsabit Kajiado to main Laikipia Samburu Kitui water Makueni Tharaka Kwale Mandera Nithi Lamu sources Marsabit Turkana Meru Meru Nyeri Narok Taita Taveta 4.2 Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is increasing with Marsabit having the highest livestock trekking distance at 38.9 kilometers and Baringo with lowest at 8.5 kilometers for Arid counties. Meru North had the highest livestock return trekking distance as compared to Narok and West Pokot that had lowest trekking distance for Semi-arid counties. This is illustrated in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, September 2022 Distance from Embu Baringo Wajir Baringo Turkana Embu Isiolo Garissa Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Tana River Garissa livestock Kitui Samburu Narok Kilifi Nyeri Isiolo grazing area Kwale West Pokot Kajiado Laikipia Mandera Kwale to main water Laikipia Kilifi Narok Lamu sources Lamu Samburu Makueni Makueni West Pokot Marsabit Mandera Meru Marsabit Taita Taveta Meru Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Wajir Taita Kitui Taveta 5. Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). Laikipia had the most favorable terms of trade for arid counties at 52 percent while Turkana had the most unfavorable terms of trade at 16.1percent for arid counties. Kilifi had the most favorable terms of trade at 82 percent and Nyeri unfavorable terms of trade at 30 percent for Semi-arid counties. The unfavorable terms of trade point to worsening drought conditions. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, September 2022 Terms of Lamu Baringo Kajiado Embu Isiolo trade Embu Kilifi Lamu Marsabit (ToT) Garissa Kwale Baringo Meru Isiolo Samburu Kitui Nyeri Kitui Makueni Kwale Tharaka Makueni Nithi Mandera Laikipia Marsabit Narok Meru West Pokot Narok Garissa Samburu Mandera Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Turkana Turkana Wajir Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Laikipia 6. Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Marsabit, Wajir, Turkana, Garissa, Samburu, Tana River, Mandera recorded serious to extremely critical situation mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level, crisis coping strategies being employed by households and poor dietary diversity. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), September 2022 Baringo Embu Kilifi Baringo Embu Kwale Kajiado Garissa Laikipia Kilifi Isiolo Samburu MUAC Kitui Isiolo Narok Lamu Kajiado Kitui Makueni Kwale Taita Taveta Narok Mandera Garissa Mandera Lamu Wajir Marsabit Turkana Marsabit Nyeri Nyeri Kwale Meru West-Pokot Taita-Taveta Makueni Tharaka Nithi Tana River Tharaka-Nithi Samburu West Pokot Garissa Tana River Meru 7. Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of September 2022. Based on the range of indicators monitored above, nine (9) counties including Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Kilifi, Kwale, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase, while three (3) counties including Baringo, Lamu and West Pokot remain in the Normal drought phase. Eleven (11) counties namely; Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Laikipia, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, Wajir, are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, two (2) counties reported an improving trend, two (2) counties recorded a stable trend, while nineteen (19) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, September 2022 Drought Trend status Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Baringo, West Lamu Pokot Alert Kwale Embu, Kilifi, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta and Tharaka Nithi Alarm Laikipia Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana, and Wajir, Emergency Recovery 8. Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Commercial and slaughter off-take Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Scale up water trucking interventions to communities and institutions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized strategic boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. ANNEX 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 25th September 2022 BARINGO County 52.79 63.98 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Central 61.0 66.68 Normal vegetation greenness which was stable when compared with the previous month of August. Mogotio improved to Eldama 68.68 68.42 Mogotio 49.57 60.84 above normal vegetation greenness. North 50.89 65.93 South 50.74 61.82 Tiaty 50.54 63.59 MANDERA County 33.8 28.02 The county recorded moderate vegetation condition which is Banissa 35.78 29.18 stable when compared with the previous month of August. M East 21.25 16.19 Mandera east worsened from moderate vegetation deficit to Lafey 30.52 22.76 severe vegetation deficit. M North 33.73 27.51 M South 39.54 34.46 M West 32.62 28.64 TURKANA County 37.56 41.54 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness but T Central 36.14 40.4 remained at normal vegetation condition during the month T. East 30.57 46.91 September. T. Loima 33.32 34.69 T. North 32.45 31 T. South 37.97 53.19 T. West 53.05 50.65 MARSABIT County 15.57 13.52 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition Laisaimis 16.42 14.85 during the month of September. Moyale 17.98 13.9 N. Horr 14.27 13.94 Saku 19.31 17.93 WAJIR County 31.79 27.91 The County remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness. W East 43.6 38.21 Eldas and Wajir West sub county worsened to severe W. Eldas 20.98 17.2 vegetation deficit. W. North 35.46 30.69 W. South 29.84 27.33 W. Tarbaj 45.4 40.75 W West 20.84 15.74 SAMBURU County 19.69 21.46 The county worsened to severe vegetation deficit from S East 13.2 12.5 Moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. S. North 26.2 27.9 S. West 23.64 35.88 GARISSA County 30.61 27.14 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit Balambala 13.92 16.24 during the month under review. Fafi and Ijara worsened to Daadab 23.71 22.36 moderate vegetation deficit. Fafi 36.4 30.88 Ijara 50.22 41.69 Lagdera 11.26 12.35 Dujis 25.92 26.82 ISIOLO County 13.77 13.58 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation I. North 12.92 12.3 deficit during the month of September. This was stable when I. South 15.08 compared to last month. 15.54 TANA County 30.92 31.17 The county and all one of its sub counties recorded moderate RIVER Bura 30.28 32.01 vegetation deficit during the month of September. Galole 28.34 29.09 Garsen 33.09 31.76 KAJIADO County 24.84 27.5 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado K. Central 16.91 18.35 central and east maintained at severe vegetation deficit during K. East 17.96 23.77 the month of September. K. North 27.29 27.55 K. South 19.53 24 K. West 36.51 37.12 LAIKIPIA County 20.5 27.32 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a L. East 16.45 24.22 stability. Laikipia West also remained at normal vegetation L. North 12.84 18.1 greenness while Laikipia North worsened to Severe Vegetation 36.8 46.07 greenness. L. West THARAKA County 41.03 38.38 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the NITHI Chuka 48.09 41.68 month under review which was a stable trend as compared to Maara 56.89 47.94 the previous month of August. Tharaka 33.31 34.09 WEST County 48.7 59.31 The County and all its sub-counties recorded above normal POKOT Kacheliba 46.56 57.8 vegetation greenness during the month under review which was Kapenguria 57.04 67.98 an improvement when compared with the previous month of August. Pokot South 61.38 68.63 Sigor 38.05 49.21 EMBU County 30.55 36.17 The county and all its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation Manyatta 38.13 35.85 greenness. Mbeere North 27.12 38.91 Mbeere South 26.46 32.93 Runyenjes 45.16 42.55 County 34.6 35.04 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness which was Kitui Central 22.16 24.82 an improvement from moderate vegetation deficit during the KITUI month of September. Kitui East 33 34.36 Mwingi Central 36.99 35.32 Mwingi North 30.06 29.87 Mwingi West 32.9 40.81 Kitui Rural 28.1 30.31 Kitui South 37.93 37.78 Kitui West 28.49 32.17 County 36.21 39.95 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the Kaiti 36.12 40.65 month under review which was a stable trend as compared to MAKUENI Kibwezi East 30.68 32.73 August. Kibwezi West 31.97 36.51 Kilome 20.29 25.98 Makueni 52.37 55.49 Mbooni 46.12 51.19 County 32.99 38.13 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness an MERU Buuri 27.62 34.19 improvement from moderate vegetation deficit during the last Central Imenti 54.11 56.8 month. Igembe Central 29.75 34.9 Igembe North 14.81 19.69 Igembe South 42.78 45 North Imenti 31.74 43.78 South Imenti 65.76 65.19 Tigania East 26.6 34.95 Tigania West 26.11 33.09 County 40.07 38.94 The county and one of its sub counties noted a stability at Kieni 43.96 42.17 normal vegetation greenness. Township improved from NYERI Mathira 28.82 27.15 extreme vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit. Mukurweini 42.43 38.54 Othaya 43.26 43.93 Tetu 48.16 45.12 Township 0.99 11.91 County 29.7 25.45 The vegetation condition in the county maintained at moderate Ganze 21.84 18.85 vegetation greenness during the month of September. Ganze KILIFI Kaloleni 32.59 33.93 worsened to severe vegetation deficit. Magarini 27.81 23.47 Malindi 37.62 26.7 Kilifi-North 48.81 38.7 Rabai 51.13 50.22 Kilifi-South 48.81 52.97 County 32.42 36.8 The county recorded an improvement to normal vegetation KWALE Kinango 22.8 27.62 greenness from moderate vegetation greenness during the Lungalunga 45.06 52.24 month of September. Matuga 47.79 45.46 Msambweni 46.9 49.73 LAMU County 71.51 61.93 The County and all its sub-counties recorded above normal Lamu East 68.34 58.22 vegetation greenness. All the sub-counties showed Lamu West 73.34 64.08 improvement. County 24.52 27.5 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate TAITA Mwatate 23.14 24.26 vegetation deficit which was stable when compared to the TAVETA Taveta 22.09 27.96 previous month of August. Voi 25.44 27.72 Wundanyi 30.4 33.57 County 42.13 41.46 NAROK Narok-East 43.19 33.46 There was constancy in vegetation cover in the county at Emurua Dikirr 56.29 65.18 normal vegetation greenness during the month of September. Kilgoris 46.55 52.98 Narok-North 52.51 39.72 Narok-South 34.68 31.83 Narok-West 40.48 47.59 Annex 2: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Annex 3. Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in several sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle.