April 2020 Page 1 KEY HIGHLIGHTS As a result of the timely start of the March- Early onset of the MAM 2020 season rainfall has started April-May (MAM) rainfall, all the 23 ASAL to impact positively on both crop and livestock counties are currently categorized in the production. In many ASAL areas, livestock production normal drought phase, with the trend has improved which is attributed to increased improving in 5 counties while a stable trend availability of water and pasture. Availability of these was observed in 17 counties. rangeland resources has led to a general improvement in livestock body condition for all livestock species, The March to May rains have positively which in turn has boosted milk production and overall impacted on water sources for both livestock increase in livestock productivity. and household consumption positively by increasing water availability and improving All pastoral counties recorded favourable terms of trade access by means of reducing distances to (ToT), implying that in March 2020 livestock producers water points. In most ASAL counties, the in these counties could purchase quantities of maize water situation observed in March was above seasonal averages from the sale of a medium size considerably better in comparison to the one goat. normally witnessed at this time of the year. Drought phase classification, March 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Page 2 1.0 Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall Onset of the 2020 March to May long rains season was early since majority of the ASAL counties started receiving rains in the first and second week of March compared to third and fourth week of March when the March-April-May (MAM) season normally begins. The MAM rains have impacted water sources for both livestock and household consumption positively by increasing availability through increasing the number of sources holding water and improving access through reducing distances to water points. In most ASAL counties, the water situation observed in March was considerably better in comparison to the one normally witnessed at this time of the year. Early onset of the MAM 2020 season rainfall has started to impact positively on both crop and livestock production. NDMA uses Earth Observation (EO) data to derive information products which are used to report on vegetation conditions and to detect possible risks for food security linked to reduced pasture and browse availability. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) values as at 30th March 2020 is summarized in Table 1. Most ASAL areas have received good rains since October 2019 and the vegetation indices at the end of March 2020 indicate above average condition. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI 3 month) Summary Status as at 30th March 2020 Above Normal Normal Moderate Severe Mandera Tana River Garissa Turkana Samburu Isiolo Kitui West Pokot Wajir Kajiado Embu Laikipia Lamu Meru Marsabit Makueni Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Baringo Taita Taveta Kwale Kilifi Tharaka (23) (0) (0) (0) Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2019 with that in March 2020. The March 2020, VCI map illustrates that the vegetation condition in March 2020 was better compared to the situation in March 2019 as shown in Figure 1. Page 3 Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2019 and March 2020 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) March 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) March 2020 Water sources Water pans, dams, seasonal rivers, ponds, boreholes, traditional river wells and springs were the most reliable sources of water for both livestock and domestic use during the month under review. Majority of the open water sources including pans, dams and rock catchments were at 50 to 80 percent capacity across ASAL counties. In nearly all ASAL areas, the water sources in use in March 2020 were the normal sources where households drew water from at this time of the year. However, the observed water situation during the month was considerably better in comparison to the one normally witnessed in other years, which was attributed to the average to above average rains received in March 2020. Livestock production In many ASAL areas, livestock production has improved which is attributed to increased availability of water and pasture. Availability of these rangeland resources has led to a general improvement in livestock body condition for all livestock species, which in turn has boosted milk production and overall increase in livestock productivity. Pasture and browse condition During the month of March, pasture and browse condition was good across the ASAL counties compared to fair normally as shown in Table 2. The observed improvement in pasture and browse situation which is above normal for the month is attributed to the enhanced rainfall received in March 2020. Page 4 Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, March 2020 Pasture Browse P oor Fair Good P oor Fair Good Baringo Tharaka Garissa Mandera Baringo Embu Mandera Isiolo Kajiado Garissa Isiolo Turkana Kilifi Kitui Kajiado Turkana Kwale Laikipia Kitui Kwale Makueni Meru Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Narok Marsabit Narok Samburu Nyeri Tana River Nyeri West Pokot Lamu Samburu Wajir Tana River Wajir Taita Taveta Lamu Taita Taveta Embu Tharaka Kilifi West Pokot Meru Livestock body condition Livestock body condition for cattle and goats was fair to good in all counties as illustrated in Table 3. The current livestock body condition has improved compared to last month due to the decrease in trekking distances in search of pasture and water coupled with growth in pasture and browse quantity and quality. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is above normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, March 2020 Goats Cattle Poor Fair Good Poor Fair Good Baringo Marsabit Isiolo Baringo Turkana Makueni Kilifi Kajiado Kitui Kilifi Tana River Meru Laikipia Mandera Embu Laikipia Marsabit Isiolo Lamu Samburu Narok Lamu Kajiado Kitui Makueni Turkana Nyeri Garissa Mandera Embu Garissa Taita Taveta Wajir Samburu Narok Tana River Meru Tharaka Kwale Tharaka Kwale West Pokot Nyeri West Pokot Taita Taveta Wajir Milk production Milk production situation in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in Table 4. In comparison to the long term average; current milk production in nineteen counties is above or close to LTA which was attributed to good availability of water, pasture and browse. However, four counties which includes: Kajiado, Makueni, Lamu and Kitui recorded below normal milk production. The below average milk production was attributed to a drop in calving rates and a general reduction in herd size at household level. Page 5 Table 4.0: Milk production, March 2020 Milk Garissa Baringo Kitui Kajiado Embu Garissa Production Isiolo Kilifi Kajiado Narok West Pokot Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Lamu Meru Baringo Mandera Marsabit Turkana Makueni Nyeri Kilifi Marsabit Nyeri (Kieni) Taita Taveta Samburu Kwale Tharaka Nithi Kitui Wajir Laikipia Wajir Lamu Makueni West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Tana River Kwale Turkana Embu (Mbeere) Meru (Meru North) Narok Taita Taveta Tana River Samburu In all ASAL counties, the current average price for cattle are above or close to the 2015 - 2019 mean. For example, in Marsabit County the average cattle price recorded in March was Kshs 26,434 which was above the LTA price of Kshs 18,827 by 40 percent. Similarly in Samburu County the average price of 4-year old medium size bull during the month was Kshs 21,455 which was above the 2015 - 2019 LTA by 36 percent. The above average cattle prices is attributed to the improved body condition of cattle relative to the typical state that would be expected at this time of the year. Table 5 presents trends in cattle prices. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, March 2020 Cattle Marsabit Meru Kitui Nyeri Isiolo Kajiado Baringo Prices Taita Taveta Nyeri Turkana Kilifi Laikipia Samburu Garissa Laikipia Narok Kwale Kitui Wajir Turkana Lamu West Pokot Wajir Embu Marsabit Narok Kwale Makueni Baringo Garissa Makueni West Pokot Meru Mandera Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Taita Taveta Embu Tana River Samburu Kilifi Tana River Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Lamu Goat prices Table 6 exhibits the trend in goat prices in March 2020 in the 23 ASAL counties. During the month under review, all ASAL counties reported above normal or close to LTA prices for goats that was occasioned by the prevalent good body condition for goats. For instance, in Kwale County, the price of a medium-sized three-year-old buck was Kshs 4,428 in March having increased by a 25 percent margin from Kshs 3,533 recorded in February. In addition, the price was more than double (117 percent) that expected for this time of the year which is recorded as Kshs 2,041 in the 2016 - 2018 LTA. In the same way, current average prices for goats in Garissa, Kajiado, West Pokot, Kilifi, Narok and Wajir were above LTA by 78, 58, 53, 33, 25 and 20 percent respectively. Continued availability of rangeland resources such as browse and water was credited as the contributing factor to the improved market price. Page 6 Table 6.0: Goat prices, March 2020 Goat Kwale Samburu Baringo Garissa Tana River Narok Makueni Prices Turkana Nyeri Meru Kitui Baringo Isiolo West Pokot Lamu Isiolo Kwale Taita Taveta Lamu Kajiado Kilifi Mandera Marsabit West Pokot Meru Garissa Makueni Tharaka Kajiado Nyeri Marsabit Narok Nithi Laikipia Embu Tana River Wajir Turkana Samburu Wajir Taita Taveta Embu Mandera Kilifi Laikipia Kitui During the month of March most farmers in the marginal agricultural areas were engaged in land preparation and planting. In some counties such as Kitui, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere), Taita Taveta, Nyeri (Kieni) and Tharaka where farmers had planted in early March in anticipation of a timely onset of the March to May (MAM) long-rains season crops were at the germination stage. Desert locust infestation was reported in parts of Tharaka Nithi County such as Maragwa, Kathanga Chini, Kathagani, Kathiriku, Karangare and Makithi. However, the spread of the locust in the county was effectively managed as a result of the swift action by the aerial and ground control teams. Maize prices Table 7 presents the maize price trends in ASAL counties. In 20 ASAL counties, the retail price of maize was below or close to the 2015 - 19 average. For instance, in Meru County average maize price during the month of February was Kshs 79 per kg which is 27 percent higher than the three- year mean of Kshs 62. The average market price of a kilo of maize fell by 22 percent to Kshs 25 from Kshs 32 recorded in February. The retail price of maize in Meru in March was 31 percent lower than the three-year average of Kshs 36. Similarly, in Turkana, Kitui, Marsabit and Narok maize prices were below LTA by 25, 17, 12 and 11 percent respectively. The below normal maize price is attributed to increased supply of the commodity in markets in most ASAL areas and the enhanced short rains season harvest which has replenished household maize stocks. Page 7 Table 7.0: Maize prices, March 2020 Maize Mandera Baringo Embu Turkana Meru Embu Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Prices Garissa Laikipia Nyeri Tana River Kilifi Laikipia Nyeri Lamu Lamu Samburu Wajir Marsabit Wajir Mandera Kwale Meru Tharaka Kilifi Makueni Samburu Garissa Narok West Pokot Kwale Kajiado Marsabit Tharaka Kitui Taita Taveta Isiolo West Pokot Makueni Narok Tana River Taita Taveta Kitui Turkana Access to water In all ASAL counties, average household distances are below the five-year average. The shorter household distances to water points recorded in March was fundamentally occasioned by recharge of open water sources. For example, in Marsabit, average return distances from households to water sources reduced by 11 percent from 4.5 km in February to 4.0 km in March. In addition, when compared to similar periods, the current household water distance of 4.0 km is 44 percent shorter than the normal household water distance of 7.2 km. Equally, in Isiolo, Narok, Kilifi, Kitui, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir average household distances are below the 2015 - 2019 mean by 74, 63, 58, 50, 41, 40 and 34 percent respectively. Table 8 summarizes the trend in distances walked by households to access water. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, March 2020 Distance Mandera Tharaka Nithi Lamu Embu Taita Taveta Makueni from Taita Taveta Meru Kajiado West Pokot Mandera households West Pokot Wajir Laikipia Samburu Baringo to main Tana River Embu Marsabit Turkana Isiolo Samburu Nyeri Narok Tharaka Meru water Laikipia Kilifi Nyeri Garissa Kitui Baringo Kajiado Tana River Lamu Kwale Marsabit Kwale Wajir Turkana Narok Kilifi Makueni Isiolo Garissa Kitui As a result of adequate pasture availability within sites in close proximity to water sources, all ASAL counties reported lower than the five-year average trekking distances from grazing fields to water sources, implying improved access in comparison with a similar period in the past. However, in Samburu County, livestock trekking distances increased due to deterioration of pasture as a result of forage damage caused by desert locusts which led to severely reduction in pasture and browse availability especially in parts of Samburu East sub-county. Consequently, the average distance for livestock increased to 9.4 km up from 8 km recorded in the month of February. But even with the increase in livestock trekking distance, the current situation remained below the Page 8 LTA of 14.5 km. The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, March 2020 Distance Samburu Nyeri Marsabit Garissa Baringo from Laikipia Kilifi Meru Kajiado Embu livestock Baringo Kajiado Narok Laikipia Kilifi grazing Marsabit Kwale Nyeri Kwale Kitui Turkana Narok Taita Taveta Lamu Makueni area to Taita Taveta Meru Mandera Samburu main water West Pokot Wajir Tharaka Tana River Tana River Embu Nithi Isiolo Makueni Isiolo Wajir Garissa Kitui West Pokot Mandera Lamu Turkana Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trend in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize. In all ASAL areas, the current value is above or close to the long term average (LTA), implying that livestock producers in these counties could purchase quantities of maize above seasonal averages from the sale of a medium size goat. This was attributed to rising goat prices as a result of their good body condition while maize prices were stabilizing or declining. However, in Wajir County, the terms of trade decreased slightly by 9 percent from 66 kg of maize in February to 60 kg in March indicating that a lesser amount of maize could be purchased from the proceeds of an average sized goat this month compared with last month. In the same way, in Kwale, Embu (Mbeere) and Isiolo terms of trade decreased by 13, 9 and 7 percent respectively. The worsening trend in ToT recorded in these counties were largely due to a drop in the goat prices while maize prices increased. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, March 2020 Terms of West Pokot Meru Taita Taveta Mandera Tharaka Nithi Embu trade Tana River Embu Kajiado Kajiado Nyeri (Kieni) Garissa (ToT) Marsabit Kitui Kwale Lamu Taita Taveta Isiolo Samburu Nyeri Tharaka Makueni Tana River Kwale Laikipia Kilifi Wajir Marsabit West Pokot Wajir Baringo Garissa Meru Samburu Turkana Narok Narok Laikipia Makueni Isiolo Kilifi Baringo Mandera Lamu Kitui Turkana Page 9 Health and nutrition Overall, in approximately 90 percent of the ASAL counties, the proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition, determined by a mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurement is close to or below LTA. For example, in Kilifi the proportion of children at risk of being malnourished reduced from 3.3 percent in February to 2.5 percent in March. The decrease was attributed to adequate dietary intake and nutrition interventions including baby friendly initiatives conducted by the health sector partners. In Mandera, prevalence of malnutrition declined by 20 percent compared to the previous month while in Kitui the proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition dropped from 7.6 percent in February to 6.5 percent in March which was attributed to increase in availability of diverse food commodities at household level. Table 11 summarizes the trend in the proportion of children aged 6 to 59 months at risk of malnutrition. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2020 MUAC Lamu Embu Laikipia Kilifi Kilifi Baringo Garissa Samburu Baringo Marsabit Kwale Kitui Kajiado Isiolo Tana River Taita Taveta Turkana Narok Lamu Nyeri Laikipia West Pokot Wajir Mandera Taita Taveta Embu Makueni Isiolo Marsabit West Pokot Kwale Garissa Kitui Turkana Makueni Narok Mandera Meru Meru Tana River Kajiado Nyeri Samburu Tharaka Tharaka Nithi Wajir 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 11 sums up the trend in drought phase classification as at end of March 2020. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored which includes: rainfall performance, vegetation condition and the state of water sources all the 23 ASAL counties are currently categorized in the normal drought phase, with the trend worsening in only one county, improving in 5 counties while a stable trend was observed in 17 counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, March 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Recovery Page 10 2 Projected food security situation According the Kenya Meteorological department (KMD) forecast for April 2020, rainfall performance during the month of March was average to above average. The forecast indicates that ASAL counties such as Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, parts of Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Kwale, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, and parts of Meru are likely to experience above average rainfall especially during the first three weeks of April 2020. However, Laikipia, Baringo, Narok, parts of Kajiado, Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu, a few areas in Nyeri and parts of Meru are likely to experience dry spells during the first two weeks of the month. The figure to the right shows the expected rainfall performance in April 2020. Household and livestock water distances are expected to be within the normal ranges for the next one month. Livestock productivity including body condition, milk production and livestock prices is projected to remain stable and above average at least over the next one month as a consequence of the ongoing long rains sustaining further regeneration of pasture and browse. Enhanced rainfall performance is likely to improve food availability at household levels and minimize reliance on markets for food supplies. Maize prices are likely to remain stable and near average for the next 2 to 3 months. However, enhanced rains might result in flooding which might lead to loss of lives, displacement, destruction of infrastructures and upsurge in water borne diseases. Furthermore, COVID-19 pandemic associated travel restrictions and social distancing constraints might impact negatively on supply of food commodities and market operations including livestock markets. 3 Recommendations Provision of food and non-food assistance to approximately 1.3 million people in the ASAL areas currently experiencing Crisis and Emergency food security outcomes. The projected above average March-April-May (MAM) rains are likely to result in floding in some of the flood prone ASAL counties such as West Pokot, Tana River and Garissa. Consequently, it is imperative for all counties to put in place approprite mitigation measures to prevent loss of lives and livelihoods. Create awareness and educate ASAL communities on key measures to help curb the spread of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Page 11 Intensify ground and aerial spraying to control the spread and infestation of desert locusts in the country. Promote rain water harvesting, pasture establishment and conservation. Investment in preparedness and the capacity to respond effectively during the next drought, including refining drought contingency plans and operationalizing contingency funds. Page 12 Annex 1.0 Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th March 2020 BARINGO County 98.82 92.16 Vegetation greenness above normal across the county and its sub counties. Central 85.71 89.81 Eldama 71.66 74.2 Mogotio 97.55 91.68 North 91.05 93.1 South 97.09 94.89 Tiaty 110.51 95.07 MANDERA County 92.28 79.33 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Banissa 88.11 64.95 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. M East 79.54 61.49 Lafey 91.82 71.76 M North 101.99 83.76 M South 95.82 97.71 M West 84.77 75.58 TURKANA County 102.4 117.71 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. T Central 108.19 122.39 T. East 88.82 79.49 T. Loima 133.6 141.64 T. North 90.38 117.9 T. South 113.22 118.26 T. West 99.88 128.36 MARSABIT County 93.89 89.83 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Laisaimis 101.5 102.96 Moyale 84.52 70.83 N. Horr 91.19 86.28 Saku 108.28 107.67 WAJIR County 83.69 75.85 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. W. East 98.17 88.23 W. Eldas 66.52 63.38 W. North 94.64 89.92 W. South 77.46 67.25 W. Tarbaj 85.82 80.34 W West 91.22 81.1 Page 13 COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 month VCI-3 Colour VCI values Drought Category as at 24th month (3-month) February as at 30th 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 2020 March 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 2020 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit SAMBURU County 96.66 91.7 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. S East 92.28 87.32 S. North 101.42 96.71 S. West 98.07 92.18 GARISSA County 77.88 77.84 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 79.85 70.78 Daadab 66.6 61.14 Fafi 77.24 83.23 Ijara 89.96 93.71 Lagdera 77.77 70.24 Dujis 56.59 59.29 ISIOLO County 85.67 77.9 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation I. North 86.04 80.56 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. I. South 85.11 73.84 TANA County 97.39 98.96 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. RIVER Bura 80.47 81.98 Galole 111.19 115.81 Garsen 103.13 102.84 KAJIADO County 102.97 105.8 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. K. Central 97.1 98.06 K. East 96.44 101.96 K. North 86.01 94.03 K. South 101.96 102.05 K. West 110.31 115.12 LAIKIPIA County 90.85 87.19 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation L. East 88.02 87.96 L. North 94.52 91.02 L. West 85.34 79.66 THARAKA County 77.01 83.7 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. NITHI Chuka 67.41 83.56 Maara 66.07 80.11 Tharaka 84.12 84.91 WEST County 98.45 101.9 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. POKOT Kacheliba 103.17 104.44 Kapenguria 98.43 107.24 Pokot South 88.23 97.17 Sigor 95.93 95.55 Page 14 EMBU County 83.07 94.75 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Manyatta 78.47 87.82 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Mbeere North 83.03 94.69 Mbeere South 87.97 99.49 Runyenjes 69.94 84.92 KITUI County 92.74 100.82 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kitui Central 90.02 101.06 Kitui East 97.88 105.53 Mwingi Central 92.3 96.74 Mwingi North 87.14 87.05 Mwingi West 93.83 108.6 Kitui Rural 89.92 103.98 Kitui South 92.69 103.68 Kitui West 96.34 109.19 MAKUENI County 92.38 102.65 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Kaiti 101.53 105.17 Kibwezi East 84.74 97.5 Kibwezi West 90.08 101.9 Kilome 100.7 108.19 Makueni 96.3 106.17 Mbooni 98.26 106.85 MERU County 80.67 87.79 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Buuri 79.1 93.11 Central Imenti 72.4 83.65 Igembe Central 88.66 90.24 Igembe North 90.27 89.97 Igembe South 80.31 78.97 North Imenti 72.17 89 South Imenti 60.65 76.05 Tigania East 85.48 86.72 Tigania West 83.98 99.63 Page 15 NYERI County 75.62 86.96 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kieni 74.53 85.36 Mathira 67.05 80.55 Mukurweini 97.79 106.61 Town 94.71 100.93 Othaya 74.8 86.81 Tetu 72.55 86.83 KILIFI County 86.02 84.45 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Ganze 88.74 89.5 Kaloleni 88.88 89.99 Magarini 84.99 80.38 Malindi 77.5 80.7 Kilifi-North 86.23 88.51 Rabai 85.38 93.87 Kilifi-South 91.07 100.29 KWALE County 91.52 97.41 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kinango 91.99 106.65 Lungalunga 92.41 94.14 Matuga 88.67 90.54 Msambweni 89 92 LAMU County 89.42 90.74 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 88 89.8 Lamu West 90.24 91.28 County 96.84 105.7 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. TAITA Mwatate 101.94 107.2 TAVETA Taveta 98.27 106.68 Voi 94.31 106.71 Wundanyi 102.11 113.42 County 86.95 91.18 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Narok-East 91.73 96.41 NAROK Emurua Dikirr 92.59 90.84 Kilgoris 85.85 87.39 Narok-North 77.74 83.4 Narok-South 86.02 92.75 Narok-West 90.66 93.31 Page 16 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Page 17 Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification