AUGUST 2023 1.Drought Situation Overview Despite the notable recovery attributed to the impacts of March to May (MAM) rains in Arid and Semi- Arid counties. The recovery is yet to be registered fully. Currently, one (1) county reported recovery phase, and nineteen (19) counties reported normal drought phase situation. Drought situation thus remains alert in three (3) of the 23 ASAL counties during the month of August 2023. The number of people in need of assistance stands at 2.8 Million currently following long rains (LRA) 2023 food security assessment. Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, August, 2023 Three counties (3) including; Samburu, Kajiado and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase. Nineteen (19) counties namely; Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Tana River, Turkana, West Pokot and Isiolo are in Normal drought phase. One (1) county; Marsabit is in the Recovery drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 653,500 children aged 6 to 59 months and 142,900 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished acutely in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification for the month of August 2023. 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 August 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the August 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties received quite less amounts of rainfall. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received rainfall amounts ranging between 1mm to 25mm. The Pastoral North West counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received considerable amount of rainfall ranging between 1mm to 50mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Figure 2. August 2023 Rainfall Performance Makueni and Kitui counties received low rainfall amounts during the month of August ranging between 1mm to 25mm whereas Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts during the month of August ranging between mm to 50mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did received low amounts ranging between 26mm to 100mm as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for September 2023 The rainfall outlook for the month of September is illustrated in figure 3. Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) is forecasted to receive Near to above average rainfall (rainfall likely at end of the forecast period). Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience generally sunny and dry conditions with counties like Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasting to receive near to below average rainfall. The AgroPastoral Figure 3. September 2023 Rainfall forecast livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and baringo are forecasted to experience generally receive near to below average rainfall. The coastal marginal agriculture counties includes; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties are forecasted to Near to above average rainfall (rainfall likely at end of the forecast period) are forecasted to experience generally sunny and dry conditions while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are near to below average rainfall. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for September 2023. 1.1.3. Flooding Flooding was noted in Samburu County and the assessment is being conducted to estimate the damage caused by flooding. 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 4 indicates the trends in the vegetation condition index (VCI) for the month of July and that of August 2023. Marginal change in the month of August was noted where three counties depicted changes in VCI values. July 2023 August 2023 Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of July and August The month of August 2023 indicated slight deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) when compared to the previous month of July 2023. The deterioration in vegetation condition is associated with the ongoing dry season after ceased long rains season. This dry season has led to drop in vegetation greenness since soil moisture has decreased. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Three (3) counties including; Taita Taveta, Kajiado and Samburu recorded moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and contingency planning. The following eight (8) counties including; West Pokot, Baringo, Laikipia, Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, and Tana River recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following twelve (12) counties including; Narok, Makueni, Kitui, Nyeri, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Wajir, Kilifi, Kwale, and Lamu recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in August 2023 worsened when compared to the previous month, July 2023 as shown in (Figure 4). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of August 2023 is provided in Figure 4. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) vegetation deficit Moderate (3) (17) vegetation Samburu, Kajiado, Mandera (Banissa, West), Turkana (East, North), Samburu deficit Taita Taveta (East, North), Garissa (Balambala, Township), Tana River (Bura), Kajiado (Central, East, South), Laikipia (East, North), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Taita Taveta (Voi, Wundanyi) Normal (8) (34) vegetation West Pokot, Baringo (Mogotio, Tiaty), Mandera (Lafey, North), Turkana greenness Turkana, Baringo, (South, Loima, West), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale), Wajir Laikipia, Marsabit, (South, East), Samburu (West), Garissa (Ijara, Fafi), Tana Mandera, Garissa, River (Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (North, West), Laikipia Tana River, (West), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) West Pokot (Kapenguria, Sigor), Embu (Mbeere South), Kitui (Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Makueni (Kibwezi east), Meru (Igembe north, Tigania east, Tigania west), Kilifi (Ganze, Magarini), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta), Narok (Kilgoris) Above (12) (62) normal Narok, Makueni, Baringo (Central, North, South, Ravine), Mandera (South, Vegetation Kitui, Nyeri, Embu, East), Turkana (Central), Marsabit (North Horr, Saku), Wajir greenness Tharaka Nithi, Meru, (Tarbaj, North, West, Eldas), Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab), Isiolo, Wajir, Kilifi, Isiolo (North, South), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), West Kwale, and Lamu Pokot (Pokot South), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere north, Runyenjes), Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Kitui rural, Kitui South, Kitui West, Mwingi Central), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi west, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri town, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kaloleni, Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Malindi, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (East, West), Narok (Emurua Dikir, East, North, South, West) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition Deterioration in the condition of forage with respect to the previous month was noted across majority of the ASAL counties with about 70 percent reporting the condition of pasture and browse to be fair (Table 2). The witnessed pasture and browse level was within the normal level for the month of August save for a few counties like Samburu, Kajiado and Taita Taveta. Observed forage condition deterioration across the period under review could be attributed to the prevailing dry and hot weather conditions that dominated most parts of the ASALs. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2023 Pasture Browse Baringo, Isiolo Embu (Mbeere) Baringo Meru Kilifi Garissa, Isiolo Embu (Mbeere) Lamu Kajiado Kilifi Garissa, Samburu Tharaka Nithi Kitui, Lamu Kitui, Kwale Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Wajir Makueni, Mandera West Pokot Makueni, Marsabit Meru, Kwale Mandera, Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Taita Taveta Narok, M arsabit West Pokot Tana River Narok Turkana Nyeri Nyeri 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of livestock was generally fair across most counties (60 percent) while that of goats and sheep was good in about 82 percent of the ASAL counties (Table 3). Estimated 40 percent of the counties reported the body condition of cattle as being good while 18 percent of the counties indicated the body condition of goat as being equally good. The observed body condition over August was consistent with the one normally observed over the same period normally across most counties and that could be attributed to availability of forage and water within relatively shorter distances. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, August 2023 Catle GoatsSheep Baringo Kilifi Embu Baringo Embu (Mbeere) Lamu (Mbeere) Garissa Garissa Mandera Makueni Isiolo, Kajiado Isiolo Meru Narok Meru Kajiado Samburu N yeri (Kieni) Kilifi Kitui Wajir Kitui Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Makueni West Pokot Lamu West Narok Kwale Pokot Nyeri (Kieni) Marsabit Mandera Taita Taveta Marsabit Turkana Turkana Kwale 1.3.3 Milk production Stability in the level of milk produced was noted during the month under review with respect to the previous month. Approximately 18, 55, and 27 percent of the counties reported an improving, stable and worsening trend respectively. Milk produced over August was above, at par and below the long-term average (LTA) in about 59 and 32 percent of the counties (Table 4). Factors driving the observed stability included availability of forage and water in most counties. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2023 Milk Mandera Baringo Kajiado Baringo Garissa, Samburu Production Turkana Embu Kilifi Kitui Kilifi Tana River Garissa Makueni Makueni Lamu Isiolo Isiolo Samburu Tharaka Mandera Kajiado Kitui Taita Nithi Meru Kwale Kwale Taveta Marsabit Narok Laikipia Laikipia Tana Nyeri Lamu River Taita Meru Tharaka Taveta Narok Nithi Turkana Nyeri Marsabit Wajir Pokot Embu 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Endemic diseases were reported in Garissa, Kajiado, Samburu, Laikipia, Narok and Tana River. The diseases included suspected cases of Sheep and Goat Pox, Q-Fever in goats, Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia, Lumpy Skin Disease, Peste Des Petits Ruminants, and Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia, Trypanosomiasis, Foot Rot, Rabies and Orf. Besides that, a unique condition suspected to be either swayback syndrome or Molybdenum poisoning (toxicity) was experienced in various parts of Samburu County. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Majority of the counties constituting 64 percent recorded above-average cattle prices with about 18 percent apiece reporting prices that were at par with the usual prices and below the respective normal prices accordingly (Table 5). Generally, stability in the price of cattle across most counties was noted and that could be attributed to the stable body condition occasioned by forage and water availability. However, a negative trend was evident in Kwale and Nyeri driven by the deteriorating body condition. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2023 or Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Baringo Kajiado Kitui Baringo Embu Kwale Prices Embu Makueni Laikipia Isiolo Garissa Nyeri Garissa Narok Nyeri Kilifi Kajiado Isiolo West Taita Lamu Kitui Kilifi Pokot Taveta Meru Laikipia Kwale Mandera Makueni Mandera Tharaka Narok Meru Nithi Samburu Samburu Marsabit Taita Kitui Taveta Tana Tana River River Turkana Wajir Wajir Tharaka West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices A stable with a tendency to improve in the market price of goat was witnessed across most ASAL counties during the month under review. Only Kwale and Lamu counties reported a declining trend with respect to the prevailing trading price of goat over August. Overall, majority of the counties (90 percent) reported prices that were above the normal price for the period with the exception of Lamu and Nyeri whose prices were below the long-term average. The good body condition driven by browse and water availability was the major factor that influenced the observed price positivity over the month under analysis. Table 6.0: Goat prices, August 2023 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Goat Baringo Lamu Baringo Embu, Kwale Embu Nyeri Isiolo Garissa Lamu Garissa Kitui Kajiado Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Kilifi Kilifi Samburu Makueni Kitui Tana River Meru Kwale, Tharaka Narok Laikipia Nithi Nyeri Makueni Turkana Taita Mandera Wajir Taveta Meru Marsabit West Narok Pokot 1.4 Crop production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture, Agro pastoral and South East marginal agriculture clusters. Table 7 below summarizes the current state of crop production in these clusters. Table 7.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Kwale Harvesting of green maize, cowpeas and green grams was Marginal almost complete and production was above average. Agriculture However, destruction of crops by elephants was noted in some areas. Taita Harvesting was ongoing though the yield was expected to Taveta be below normal. Significant proportion of farmers in the Mixed Farming: Food crop Livestock livelihood zone did not plant due to late onset of the rains and the few who planted crops wilted due to moisture stress. Lamu Crop farmers are currently harvesting green maize and other crops such as green grams. Crop farmers are harvesting maize in all livelihood zones except the fishing zone. South East Kitui The long rains ceased when maize was in a tussling stage Marginal leading to moisture stress which resulted to poor grain Agriculture filling in most parts. Also, the late planted maize had a total crop failure with cow peas attacked by aphids which reduced production significantly. The actual crop production for most crops was 60-100 percent of the long- term average. Makueni Production of maize, green grams and cowpeas had declined by 60, 42 and 34 percent respectively. The decline in production was partly due to early cessation of the long rains and also infestation by Fall Armyworm (FAW) and African Armyworm (AAW). Agropastoral Baringo Harvesting of various crops in the Mixed farming, Agro- pastoral and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones was almost being concluded. Incidents of maize crop failure were reported particularly in the Agro-pastoral areas and this was bound to affect the projected maize yield. A number of farms did report infestation by Fall army worms which affected about 45 percent of the total acreage that was put under maize crop. Laikipia Some of the farmers who had planted early reported harvesting of maize although low yields are expected for both due to early cessation of the MAM rains and the poor off season rains of JJA rains and frostbite attacks. Narok Currently, some of crops like maize are at harvesting stage and at germination for beans with the condition being fair due to moisture stress. Moreover, most crops in the Pastoral Livelihood zone have not realized any harvest due to maize crop failure. 1.4.1 Maize prices Decline in the price of maize in relation to the previous month was evident across majority of the counties save for Wajir that recorded an increase over the reference period. Noteworthy, all counties except Garissa reported prices that were above the usual price range in August as illustrated in table 8. Observed trend over the month could be attributed to improved maize availability occasioned by on-going harvest within the ASALs and other adjacent counties coupled with external and cross-border imports. Table 8.0: Maize prices, August 2023 or Above LTA Atclose Below Improving Stable Worsening to LTA LTA Maize Baringo Garissa Baringo Garissa Wajir Embu Embu, Isiolo Kajiado Marsabit Isiolo Kilifi Kitui Wajir Kwale,Lamu Mandera Kajiado Laikipia Nyeri Kilifi Makueni Turkana Kitui Meru, Taita Kwale Samburu Taveta Laikipia Tana River Lamu Tharaka Nithi Makueni Mandera 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Household distance to water source in 12 counties is currently above LTA and on a worsening trend as compared to the previous month. In the arid counties, distance to water source is between 2.6 kilometers and 8.4 kilometers with Isiolo recording the lowest while Mandera reported the highest distances to household water access. On the other hand, distances in the semi-arid counties ranges between 1.6 kilometers and 7.1kilometers(km), with Narok recording lowest and Kajiado recording highest distances in respect to the previous month. 12 counties including Turkana, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Garissa, Baringo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, Tana River, Meru, Makueni and Nyeri indicated a worsening trend in household access distances to water sources. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2023 Above At LTA Below Improvin Stable Worsening LTA LTA g Distance Kajiado, West Embu, Embu, Baringo Turkana, from Nyeri Pokot Isiolo Baringo Kilifi, Nyeri Baringo, Kilifi, Kitui Mandera, Kajiado Samburu households Meru Lamu, Meru Makueni Taita Taveta to main Samburu Marsabit Tharaka Narok Embu, water Taita Mandera, Nithi Tharaka Garissa Taveta Narok Nithi Baringo Meru sources Tana River Kwale, Narok, West Kajiado Turkana, Wajir Isiolo Pokot Laikipia Makueni Kitui, Lamu Kwale, Tana River Garisssa Makueni Wajir Marsabit Tharaka Tharaka Nithi Nithi Laikipia 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock In Comparison to the previous months, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing area worsened in 10 counties with above LTA, while other counties are below LTA and at LTA respectively as depicted in table 10. The counties that reported a worsening trend included: Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana, Garissa, Narok, Isiolo, Laikipia, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi. The average livestock trekking distance from grazing areas to water points in the arid counties was between 7.3 kilometers to 14.4 kilometers with Baringo reporting the lowest and Samburu recording the highest. In the semi-arid counties, the distance was 1.8 kilometers to 7.1 kilometers with Kilifi County recording the lowest and Kajiado County recording the highest distance. Table 10.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, August Distance Kilifi Kajiado Baringo Baringo Garissa Kajiado Garissa Embu Embu Isiolo Garissa Kilifi Tana- livestock Isiolo Kitui River Kajiado Kwale Nyeri grazing area to main Laikipia Makueni water sources Mandera West Pokot Taita Taveta Pokot 1.6 Terms of trade In August, 2023, 87 percent of the counties reported a ToT that was below the respective long-term average depicting a stable trend in relation to the previous month. This is due to high fuel prices that have contributed to high maize prices against low goat prices across the ASAL counties. The counties are Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Marsabit, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tan River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, West Pokot and Kitui. However, compared to the previous period, there has been an improvement in about 78 percent of the counties and these include: Baringo, Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Wajir, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Marsabit and West Pokot with the exception of Kajiado County that recorded a deteriorating trend (Table 11). Table 11.0: Terms of Trade, August 2023 Terms of Kilifi Baringo Baringo Garissa Kajiado trade Embu Embu Isiolo (ToT) Garissa Kilifi Tana-River Isiolo Kitui Nyeri Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Makueni Mandera West Pokot Meru Meru Narok Narok Nyeri Turkana Samburu Samburu Taita Marsabit Taveta Taita Taveta 1.7. Health and nutrition The nutrition situation was on a worsening trend in four counties: Baringo, Garissa, Tana River and Turkana as evidenced by the increase in proportion of children falling within the at risk category. About seven counties reported a stable trend while the situation improved in the remaining nine counties. The worsening trend in the four mentioned counties was as a consequence of reduced milk production hence reduced milk consumption at household level, poor dietary diversity, inadequate food intake, and poor childcare practices. Approximately 55 percent of the counties reported a nutrition situation that was below the usual level for the period under analysis as shown in table Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2023 Kitui, Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Baringo, Kwale, Isiolo Kilifi, Kwale, Garissa MUAC Laikipia Kajiado, Lamu Laikipia, Tana River, Makueni, Marsabit Makueni, Wajir Turkana Mandera, Lamu, Narok Mandera, Marsabit Meru, Makueni, Nyeri, Meru, Nyeri, Narok, Samburu Taita Taita Kwale Tharaka Taveta Taveta, Tharaka- Nithi, Isiolo Tana Nithi River, West- Turkana, Pokot, Wajir, Meru 2.0 Drought phase classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, three counties including Kajiado, Samburu and Taita Taveta were classified at the Alert phase and on a worsening trend. Approximately 86 percent of the counties were at the Normal phase of drought with a worsening trend being noted in Garissa, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni, Nyeri, Turkana, West Pokot, and Tana River while stability was reported in 10 counties including Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Baringo and Wajir with only Isiolo reporting an improving trend (Table 13). Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, August 2023 Drought Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteri orating Normal Isiolo Embu, Kilifi, Kwale Lamu, Garissa, Kitui, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Tharaka Laikipia, Makueni, Nithi, Baringo, Wajir Nyeri, Turkana, West Pokot, Tana River Alert Kajiado, Samburu, Taita-Taveta Alarm Emergency Recovery Marsabit Recommendations Food and safety nets Sustained provision of food assistance and cash transfer to food insecure populations. Livestock sector Facilitating safe migrations for the pastoralists accessing dry season grazing areas. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Management of water facilities Installation of water resource level monitoring levels Development of water harvesting infrastructure especially in schools. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought preparedness, recovery and resilience building initiatives. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th August 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS BARINGO County 55.93 49.08 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the Central 69.95 69.64 month of August. The situation has begun to worsen North 64.17 59.75 South 57.86 52.14 Ravine 64.65 74.16 Mogotio 51.95 43.44 49.24 Tiaty 37.02 MANDERA County The county recorded a depreciation in vegetation cover from above 60.94 44.39 normal vegetation greenness to normal vegetation greenness. Lafey 65.1 42.24 North 54.75 38.34 Banissa 32.31 28.69 West 51.3 34.58 South 86.88 66.22 East 70.57 60.75 TURKANA County The county recorded a stability in the vegetation greenness at 46.68 37.71 normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Turkana East 34.64 27.49 East and North has begun to worsen. South 45.8 35.03 Loima 53.68 42.3 Central 51.94 51.59 West 54.41 43.29 North 43.03 33.93 MARSABIT County The county recorded an improvement in the vegetation cover from 51.36 49.26 normal vegetation greenness during the month of June to above normal vegetation greenness during the month of July Laisamis 49.69 45.33 Moyale 43.08 40.92 North Horr 52.85 52.06 Saku 79.49 76.98 WAJIR County The county recorded a stability in the vegetation at above normal 63.54 54.87 vegetation greenness during the month of August Tarbaj 76.89 57.34 North 63.71 52.18 South 53.13 48.76 West 77.42 72.58 Eldas 72.89 63.29 East 54.82 44.92 SAMBURU County The county recorded a worsening trend in vegetation greenness 36.42 28.77 from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit East 32.8 26.93 during the month under review North 36.7 27.99 West 50.42 39.1 GARISSA County The county experienced a worsening trend in vegetation condition 51.12 45.29 from above normal vegetation greenness to normal vegetation greenness. Balambala and township worsened to moderate Balambala 31.44 25.91 vegetation deficit. Township 35.12 32.35 Ijara 48.58 39.33 Fafi 42.75 37.13 Lagdera 77.3 76.73 Dadaab 63.48 56.05 ISIOLO County The county noted a stability in vegetation condition at normal 55.81 55.84 above vegetation greenness. North 48.64 50.13 South 66.77 64.57 TANA County The county and two of its sub counties noted a stability in RIVER 46.57 40.52 vegetation greenness at normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. However, Bura noted moderate vegetation Bura 39.8 34.82 deficit. Galole 50.12 43.17 Garsen 50.11 43.69 KAJIADO County The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation greenness from 35.58 32.98 normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month of August. Central 30.99 27.66 East 31.74 29.82 North 52.85 47.97 South 36.37 34.5 West 38.81 35.75 LAIKIPIA County The County and its sub counties a stability in vegetation greenness 47.35 35.31 at normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. East 47.2 30.99 North 42.01 28.93 West 57.42 49.34 THARAKA County The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above NITHI 61.06 54.1 normal vegetation greenness during the month of August. Chuka 72.81 65.04 Maara 73.69 64.89 Tharaka 52.6 46.53 WEST County The county recorded a stability at normal vegetation greenness. POKOT 49.82 40.72 However, Kacheliba recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kacheliba 41 29.2 Kapenguria 55.86 47.75 Pokot south 67.51 67.06 Sigor 50.29 40.18 EMBU County The county recorded a stability vegetation greenness at above 70.18 56.58 normal vegetation greenness during the month under review Manyatta 77.58 59.08 north 69.5 62.18 south 65.2 49.62 Runyenjes 82.1 67.19 County The County recorded stability in vegetation cover to above normal 60.95 56.8 vegetation greenness during the month of August. Kitui central 82.05 78.09 Kitui east 83.97 81.04 Kitui rural 81.63 76.83 Kitui south 53.81 52.32 KITUI Kitui west 62.48 53.27 Mwingi central 68.9 62.48 Mwingi north 45.7 38.41 Mwingi west 54.49 45.16 63.14 59.91 normal vegetation greenness during the month of August when compared to the last month of July. Kaiti 77.26 82.39 Kibwezi east 45.82 42.2 Kibwezi west 57.98 53.23 MAKUENI Kilome 64.3 63.19 Makueni 79.94 73.08 Mbooni 81.5 82.91 63.8 59.55 normal vegetation greenness during the month of August Buuri 61.88 59.9 Central Imenti 69.64 71.29 Igembe MERU central 69.91 63.27 Igembe north 54.12 49.31 Igembe south 72.14 64.01 North Imenti 74.77 74.55 South Imenti 72.23 73.11 Tigania east 55.69 46.91 Tigania west 56.74 49.06 73.12 64.96 vegetation condition at above normal vegetation greenness Kieni 68.65 62.15 Mathira 82.71 63.63 Mukurweini 87.57 73.88 NYERI Nyeri town 77.97 57.73 Othaya 69.83 67.41 Tetu 77.77 77.67 County The vegetation condition in the county remained stable at above 50.33 51.45 vegetation greenness during the month of August. Ganze 47.24 48.95 Kaloleni 58.4 64.73 Kilifi north 52.81 58.45 KILIFI Kilifi south 51.75 57.48 Magarini 49.53 48.72 Malindi 59.36 62.9 Rabai 54.79 60.92 The county and all its sub counties recorded a stability in County 61.29 64.3 Kinango 61.01 63.77 KWALE Lunga Lunga 66.27 67.82 Matuga 58.01 64.75 Msambweni 48.7 52.31 72.24 62.03 LAMU Lamu east 65.74 52.22 Lamu west 75.99 67.7 County The county deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit from 35 33.69 normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Mwatate 38.71 36.43 TAITA Taveta 38.66 37.41 TAVETA Voi 32.7 32.01 Wundanyi 31.26 25.82 64.63 54.66 condition during the month of August. Kilgoris worsened to Emurua Dikirr 71.65 65.54 normal vegetation greenness. Kilgoris 56.89 49.26 Narok east 65.79 53.23 NAROK Narok north 66.27 61.53 Narok south 62.98 54.53 Narok west 68.17 53.91 Table 15.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators Types of impact monitored Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Nutrition Circumference) Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long- term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 5.0: Drought Phase Classification