AUGUST 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance During the month of August, near to below average rainfall was recorded over the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Central and South Rift Valley and parts of Northwestern Kenya including West Pokot, Turkana, Baringo and Narok, Samburu and Laikipia counties. Dry weather conditions were experienced over the Southeastern lowlands, Northeastern and most of the Northwestern Kenya. The mean temperatures were above normal over most parts of the Arid and Semi-Arid counties of Kenya (ASALS). During the month of August 2021, most Figure 1.August Rainfall Performance ASAL counties that received between 6- 20mm of rainfall include; Taita Taveta, Figure 1. Rainfall Performance, August 2021 Kwale, Tana River, Kajiado, Isiolo, Lamu and some part of Garissa, Marsabit, Kitui, Meru and Tharaka Nithi. Most of Arid counties that received TRACE rainfall amounts (2-5mm1mm) includes; Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Garissa, Kitui and Makueni. Figure 1 indicates spatial rainfall performance during the month of August as rainfall totals. Rainfall Forecast for September According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), It is expected that several parts of the country will be generally dry for most of the month of September. Almost all 23 ASAL counties are likely to be sunny and dry with occasional showers expected in the coastal strip. Near-Average to Above-Average rainfall is expected in some parts of Turkana, Kajiado, Narok and Laikipia. West Pokot and Baringo counties will be within Near-Average to Above- Average rainfall category. The expected total rainfall is likely to be below the long-term average amounts for September. Figure 2.Rainfall forecast, September 2021 Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in August 2020 with that in August 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of August 2020. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2020 and August 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) August 2020 August 2021 As at the end of August 2021, counties experiencing vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu, Tana River and Wajir. The eight (8) counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in August 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the eight counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of August 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Kwale (Kinango) Wajir (Wajir-South, Wajir-West) recorded the lowest VCI values with the nine (9) sub counties currently falling in the extreme deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in MAM season 2021 in those particular areas. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of August 2021. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe (9) vegetation Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) deficit Kwale (Kinango) Wajir (Wajir-South, Wajir-West) Moderate (8) (29) vegetation Garissa, Isiolo, Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township) Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo deficit Kilifi, Kwale, South) Kajiado (Kajiado Central, Kajiado-North) Kilifi (Magarini, Lamu, Samburu, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Tana River, Wajir Kitui Rural) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu West) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Laisaimis, Moyale) Samburu (Samburu east) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Wajir (Wajir East, Eldas, Wajir North, Tarbaj) Normal (10) (43) vegetation Embu, Kajiado, Embu (Manyata, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) greenness Kitui, Laikipia, Kajiado (Kajiado-East, Kajiado-South) Kilifi (Kilifi-North) Kitui Mandera, (Kitui East, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia East) Marsabit, Meru, Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Makueni) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera Nyeri, Taita East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera West) Marsabit (North Horr, Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe North, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania west) Narok (Narok-East) Nyeri (Mathira, Othaya, Tetu, Township) Samburu (Samburu North, Samburu west) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi) Tharaka Nithi (Maara, Tharaka) Turkana(Turkana East, Turkana North) Vegetation (5) (32) greenness Baringo, Baringo (Baringo Central, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South, Above Makueni, Narok, Tiaty) Kajiado (Kajiado-West) Kitui (Kitui Central) Laikipia normal Turkana, West (Laikipia West) Lamu (Lamu East,) Makueni (Kibwezi West, Kilome, Mbooni) Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini) Taita Taveta (Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka,) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South, Turkana West) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West- Pokot South, Sigor) Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2021 Livestock production The current livestock body condition is worsening compared to previous month of July. However, pasture and browse quantity and quality is deteriorating. Overally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor and fair to poor conditions except in Lamu, Narok and West Pokot that reported good pasture condition as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition is deteriorating as compared to the previous month. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Baringo Lamu Garissa Baringo Lamu Isiolo Embu Isiolo Embu Narok Kajiado Marsabit Kilifi Kajiado West Pokot Kilifi Narok Mandera Kitui Taita Taveta Meru Kwale Tana River Nyeri Laikipia West Pokot Tana River Makueni Wajir Taita Taveta Nyeri Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable compared to previous month. However, pasture and browse quantity and quality is deteriorating. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, August 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Taita Taveta Isiolo Baringo Kajiado Isiolo Embu Wajir Embu Taita Taveta Mandera Kajiado Garissa Tana River Samburu Kilifi Kilifi Turkana Kitui Kitui Wajir Kwale Kwale Laikipia Lamu Lamu Laikipia Makueni Makueni Marsabit Marsabit Meru Mandera Narok Meru Nyeri Narok Tana River Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Samburu West Pokot Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Milk production Milk production in Baringo, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Samburu, Tharaka Nithi and West Pokot reported an improving trend whereas Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri, Turkana and Wajir indicated a worsening trend when then month of August is compared with previous month of July. Embu Lamu, Makueni, Narok Samburu and West Pokot were above LTA while the Baringo, Garissa Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Wajir are below LTA. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2021 Milk Embu Kwale Baringo Baringo Garissa Embu Production Lamu Taita Garissa Kwale Taita Isiolo Makueni Taveta Isiolo Mandera Taveta Kajiado Narok Kajiado Marsabit Tana River Kilifi Samburu Kilifi Meru Kitui West Kitui Samburu Laikipia Pokot Laikipia Tharaka Lamu Mandera Nithi Makueni Marsabit West Pokot Narok Meru Nyeri Nyeri Turkana Tana River Wajir Nithi Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable and above LTA owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is still stable compared to the previous month as illustrated in Table 5. The prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of August in about 60 percent of the ASAL counties. In eight out of the 23 ASAL counties the cattle prices are worsening with majority at stable and no single county displaying improvement as shown in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2021 Cattle Baringo Meru Kilifi Baringo Kajiado Prices Isiolo Samburu Mandera Isiolo Kitui Kajiado Laikipia Nyeri Kilifi Lamu Kitui Garissa Marsabit Makueni Samburu Lamu Turkana Mandera Tana River Makueni Embu Meru Wajir Narok Narok Embu Taita Nyeri Garissa Taveta Taita Taveta Tana River Tharaka Nithi Tharaka West Pokot Nithi Laikipia Wajir Marsabit West Pokot Turkana Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of August, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Turkana, Meru, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit and Nyeri counties falling in below LTA category. The goat prices are stable but worsening as compared to the previous month due to deteriorating in livestock body condition. Table 6.0: Goat prices, August 2021 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Goat Kajiado Baringo Meru Baringo Isiolo Prices Kilifi Isiolo Nyeri Kilifi Kajiado Lamu Kitui Wajir Kitui Meru Laikipia Makueni Turkana Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Narok Mandera Garissa Makueni Wajir Taita Samburu Marsabit Mandera Embu Taveta Embu Narok Garissa Tana River Samburu Marsabit Tharaka Taita Lamu Nithi Taveta Nyeri West Tana River Pokot West Pokot March to May (MAM) long rains season were on-going across the marginal agricultural areas during the month of May and minimal rain showers on June, most crops planted are struggling with poor condition due to moisture stress as result of depressed rains. Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi and Wajir have reported poor crop condition. The late onset of the MAM rainfall season is likely to have a negative impact on agricultural activities in most semi-arid counties. Consequently, the farmers have been advocated to practice planting of fast maturing seedlings and drought tolerant crops in areas expected to receive below-average rainfall. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in August as compared to the previous month. As demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are stable in 18 counties,3 Counties Nyeri, Tharakaha ve shown a worsening trend .Garissa ,Isiolo, Kajiado ,Mandera ,Marsabit, Nyeri and Taita Taveta recorded prices that are above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, August 2021 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Garissa Baringo Embu Nyeri Baringo Garissa Prices Isiolo Kwale Kilifi Tharaka Embu Tana River Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Kitui Nithi Kajiado Mandera Lamu Meru Wajir Kilifi Marsabit Makueni Tana River Nyeri Narok Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Samburu Wajir Laikipia Turkana Lamu West Pokot Makueni Narok Access to water for households In comparison to the long term average, 17 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is major increase in distance to household water source. The increase in average distances to water points for households is due to the depletion of the water availability due to the minimal rains. The consecutive poorly performed long rains and short rains seasons of 2020 and 21 respectively is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2021. Distance Baringo Isiolo Baringo Garissa Embu from Embu Kitui Kwale Kilifi Isiolo household Garissa Makueni Kitui Kajiado s to main Kajiado Narok Laikipia Mandera water Kilifi Tana River Lamu Meru sources Kwale Tharaka Nithi Makueni Narok Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Lamu Samburu Taita Taveta Mandera Tana River Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Meru Turkana Nyeri Wajir Samburu West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, August 2021 Distance Baringo Kitui Kajiado Baringo Embu from Embu Narok Kilifi Garissa Kajiado livestock Garissa Wajir Tana River Isiolo Kitui grazing area Isiolo West Tharaka Kilifi Kwale to main Kwale Pokot Nithi Laikipia Lamu water Laikipia Meru Makueni sources Lamu Narok Mandera Makueni Tana River Marsabit Mandera Tharaka Nyeri Marsabit Nithi Samburu Meru West Pokot Taita Nyeri Taveta Samburu Turkana Taita Wajir Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties except Garissa, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri and Turkana, ToT values are above and at the long-term average (LTA). The TOT maintains a stable trend as to the previous month. The relatively favorable situation for livestock keepers in these ASAL counties was attributed to high goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable. On the other hand, terms of trade were unfavorable in Nyeri (Kieni) county where the current ToT was lower than the long-term average for August by 40 percent attributed to decrease in the sheep prices as a result of a downward shift in the body condition of goats, increase in volumes of livestock offered for sale and also a general increase in maize prices. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, August 2021 Terms of Kajiado Baringo Garissa West- Baringo Garissa trade (ToT) Kilifi Embu Marsabit Pokot Embu Kajiado Lamu Isiolo Meru Isiolo Lamu Makueni Kitui Nyeri Kilifi Mandera Narok Kwale Turkana Kitui Marsabit Tana- Laikipia Kwale Meru River Mandera Laikipia Tana-River Tharaka- Samburu Makueni Tharaka- Nithi Taita- Narok Nithi Taveta Nyeri Wajir Wajir Samburu West- Taita- Pokot Taveta Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. As compared to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has been on a visible worsening trend, however the following counties namely; Baringo, Garissa, Narok, Mandera, Tana River, Marsabit, Samburu and Nyeri have MUAC above long term average. The observed above long term negative trend in malnutrition of the eight counties was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2021 Baringo Isiolo Kajiado West Pokot Isiolo Baringo Narok Kilifi Kitui Embu Kilifi Kajiado MUAC Mandera Lamu Tharaka-Nithi Laikipia Kitui Nyeri Makueni West Pokot Lamu Marsabit Samburu Meru Turkana Makueni Mandera Tana River Taita Meru Narok Marsabit Taveta Taita Taveta Nyeri Garissa Wajir Tharaka- Samburu Embu Nithi Tana River Laikipia Wajir Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of August 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (11) counties; Embu (Mbeere), Meru-North, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Samburu, Tana-River, and Turkana are in the alert drought phase and thus seven (7) counties including; Baringo, Narok, Tharaka-Nithi, West- Pokot, Kajiado, Nyeri (Kieni), and Taita-Taveta are in Normal drought phase whereas Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo, Garissa and Mandera are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported to be the improving trend, eight (8) counties recorded stable trend while the remaining fifteen (15) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of the minimal orand NO rains received during the month of August. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, August 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Kajiado Narok Nyeri(Kieni) Tharaka-Nithi Taita-Taveta West-Pokot Alert Embu(Mbeere) Kilifi Meru-North Kitui Tana-River Alarm Marsabit Isiolo Wajir Mandera Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th August 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS UNIT GREENNESS as at 26th as at 30th (3- BARINGO County The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal 54.31 58.42 vegetation greenness in the month of August except Eldama which 60.01 60.94 was at normal greenness. Eldama 52.35 42.28 Mogotio 45.08 56.2 62.51 65.12 53.82 61.2 Tiaty 53.57 58.54 MANDERA County The county and its sub counties are in Normal vegetation greenness 40.9 39.3 in the month of August which is a stable trend except Mandera Banissa 44.29 40.8 South which worsened to a moderate vegetation deficit. The M East current month VCI trend is similar to the previous month of July. 42.61 39.49 Lafey 41.94 41.53 M North 48.65 44.43 M South 36.1 34.22 M West 34.45 36.45 TURKANA County There is stability in VCI for the county as five of its sub counties 57.8 53.23 recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness in the month of T Central 71.3 78.18 August. Turkana North and East recorded Normal vegetation T. East greenness. 46.86 43.08 T. Loima 72.88 61.9 T. North 44.86 43.38 T. South 68.13 57.39 T. West 62.56 56.15 MARSABIT County The county improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal 34.64 38.82 vegetation greenness except for Moyale and Laisamis which Laisaimis 29.96 34.31 remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Moyale 31.09 34.34 N. Horr 37.72 41.97 42.91 48.44 WAJIR County The situation deteriorated in the county at moderate vegetation 27.22 23.78 deficit. Wajir South and West worsened from moderate vegetation W East 29.27 23.68 deficit to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. W. Eldas 25.25 28.52 W. North 30.76 34.27 W. South 24.23 16.92 W. Tarbaj 33.86 30.35 W West 24.95 19.36 SAMBURU County Worsening in vegetation from normal vegetation greenness in the 38.69 34.59 previous month of July to Moderate vegetation deficit in the month S East 28.61 26.54 under review. Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S. North 49.03 41.21 S. West 44.04 44.63 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GARISSA County The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation 25.91 21.16 deficit band with Daadab and Ijara sub-county worsening from Balambala 23.42 21.17 moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit band and from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit Daadab 20.85 15.29 respectively. 24.85 21.15 Ijara 43.02 29.44 Lagdera 14.24 17.28 Dujis 23.79 20.41 ISIOLO County There was improvement in the entire countys vegetation condition 18.97 23.09 from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit in I. North 19.76 23.94 comparison to the previous month of July. I. South 17.76 21.79 TANA County The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate vegetation 27.5 29.23 RIVER condition in the month of August. 28.08 28.36 Galole 22.58 25.66 Garsen 30.09 32.21 KAJIADO County Stable trend noted across the county with sub counties with a 47.38 45.68 worsening trend in Kajiado Central sub-county from normal 39.23 32.92 vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit in August. K. Central 43.33 41.26 K. East 45.34 33.6 K. North 44.21 48.55 K. South 56.34 52.74 K. West LAIKIPIA County The sub-counties remained stable in the VCI trend in comparison 38.05 37.62 to the previous months. However, an improvement was noted in 44.73 36.94 Laikipia West whose value shifted from Normal vegetation L. East greenness to Above Normal. 33.18 30.25 L. North 43.95 51.75 L. West THARAKA County The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month under 57.62 45.25 NITHI review when compared to Above Normal category in the previous 61.51 50.79 month of July. Chulga 60.97 46.02 Maara 55.08 42.92 WEST County The vegetation greenness was above normal for the all the sub- 51.38 53.13 POKOT counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison the 49.12 50.65 previous month. Kacheliba 51 54.5 Kapenguria 63.51 61.87 48.62 51.31 Sigor EMBU County The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month 46.56 39.61 of August across most of the sub-counties with Normal vegetation 42.51 40.01 Manyatta greenness. Mbeere North and Runyenjes sub-counties deteriorated Mbeere from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. 53.27 44.86 Mbeere 42.21 35.46 Runyenjes 52.28 42.78 ADMINISTRATIVE COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month month values as at 26h as at 30th (3- County The county and three of its sub counties remained stable at normal 38.38 41.68 vegetation greenness. Kitui central improved from Normal to 46.37 55.31 Above normal vegetation greenness, Kitui Rural from severe to Kitui Central moderate vegetation deficit. However, Mwingi West worsened 40.18 45.7 Kitui East from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. 32.78 33.9 33.77 27.38 KITUI North 35.43 32.64 18.5 27.82 Kitui Rural 41.41 48.56 Kitui South 40.64 41.97 Kitui West County The county and three other of its sub counties recorded above 44.07 50.46 normal vegetation greenness conditions; improved trend compared 37.9 46.63 to July except for Kilome which remained stable Kaiti MAKUENI Kibwezi 43.24 48.01 Kibwezi 45.23 51.32 50.89 56.77 Kilome 39.66 46.16 47.38 57.5 Mbooni County The vegetation greenness is normal across the county and 3 others 51.44 44.27 of its Sub-counties except for Igembe Central, Igembe South and 53.76 44.15 North Imenti which recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 51.64 41.85 Imenti 60.23 51.11 40.35 38.06 62.33 53.55 MERU South 51.43 52.32 North Imenti 64.16 36.9 South Imenti 34.12 39.66 Tigania East Tigania 47.09 47.26 County The county, Town and Othaya sub-counties worsened from above 58.03 47.7 normal to above normal vegetation greenness when compared with 60.23 52.8 the previous month of July, Kieni, Mathira, and Tetu remained Kieni stable in their VCI values. 49.32 42.09 Mathira 39.8 52.9 Mukurweini NYERI 64.9 37.05 64.44 37.32 Othaya 48.76 45.06 County The vegetation condition noted across the county was stable and 22.7 21.19 most of its sub counties recording severe vegetation deficit. Rabai 21.8 17.24 and Kilifi south sub-counties improved from extreme to severe Ganze vegetation deficit and from extreme to moderate vegetation deficit 17.95 15.23 respectively. Kaloleni 22.66 21.53 Magarini 24.84 19.41 KILIFI Malindi 45.34 39.54 Kilifi-North 2.7 14.39 Rabai Kilifi-South 2.06 26.18 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit, with Kinango 30.75 21.04 KWALE County sub-county recording severe vegetation deficit, a deterioration 26.02 16.93 Kinango from the previous month of July. 40.55 28.8 Lungalunga 31.23 23.56 Matuga 38.99 26.21 Msambweni County The entire county deteriorated from normal vegetation greenness 40.72 32.41 to moderate vegetation deficit yet the 2 sub-counties under 50.82 51.31 review remained stable in comparison to previous month. LAMU Lamu East 34.87 21.47 Lamu West VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT GREENNESS County The County remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. 35.47 43.47 Taveta and Voi sub-counties improved from moderate vegetation 40.58 42.58 deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Mwatate 34.15 41.87 TAITA Taveta TAVETA 32.95 43 Wundanyi 54.1 59.94 County 59.24 53.99 57.64 49.59 Narok-East There was a stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, Emurua in7 sub- counties. However, the VCI value for Narok East sub- NAROK 62.69 64.54 Dikirr county showed a decrease trend from above normal to normal 51.09 51.75 vegetation greenness. Kilgoris 60.88 54.84 64.38 57.44 58.06 52.66 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification