1.2 Current Factors Affecting Food Security 2 COUNTY FOOD SECURITY SITUATION ....................................................................... 3 - Page 3
2.1 Food Security Trends 2.2 Rainfall Performance........................................................................................................ 4 - Page 4
2.3 Current Shocks And Hazards 3 IMPACT OF RAINFALL PERFOMANCE, SHOCKS AND HAZARDS ....................... 5 - Page 4
3.1 Crop Production 3.2 Livestock Production........................................................................................................ 6 - Page 5
3.3 Water And Sanitation - Page 8
3.4 Markets And Trade - Page 9
3.5 Health And Nutrition - Page 10
3.6 Education - Page 12
3.7 Coping Mechanisms - Page 13
3.8 On-Going Interventions By Sector - Page 14
3.9 Sub-County Ranking 4 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS ....................................................................................... 17 - Page 17
4.1 Prognosis Assumptions - Page 17
4.2 Food Security Outcomes For The Next Three Months 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................ 18 - Page 17
5.1 Conclusion - Page 18
5.2 Summary Of Recommendations 6 ANNEXES ............................................................................................................................. 18 - Page 18
6.1 Annex 1.Food Intervention Required (Proposed Population In Need Of Assistance) - Page 18
6.2 Annex Ii. Non-Food Interventions (By Sector) 2 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 County Background Baringo County is located in the North Western part of Kenya. It borders Turkana and Samburu counties to the 4% North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the 22% 43% Mixed Farming South West and Elgeyo-Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. It has an area of Pastoral 11,015.3 square kilometres with a Agro Pastoral population of 555,561 (KNBS, 2009 31% census report). The county has Lakes Irrigated Cropping Baringo, Bogoria, Kamnarok, and 94 which occupy an area of 165 square kilometres. It has four main livelihood zones: mixed farming, pastoral, agro- pastoral and irrigated cropping. The Figure 1. Population Distribution by Livelihood proportion of the population in each livelihood zone is 43 percent, 31percent, 22 percent and 4 percent respectively (Figure 1). It is divided into six sub-counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, East Pokot, Koibatek, and Marigat. 1.2 Current Factors Affecting Food Security The current factors affecting food security include livestock pests and diseases, poor road and water infrastructure, poor rainfall distribution and untimely access of certified seeds. 2 COUNTY FOOD SECURITY SITUATION Pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are classified in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) while the mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones are classified in the Minimal (IPC Phase 1). The performance of the short rains season was normal to above normal. Spatial distribution was uneven while temporal distribution was fair. Currently the total maize stocks held in the county are about 89 percent of the normal. Current meal frequency for children under-five and adults is at an average of 2 – 3 meals a day across all the livelihood zones which are normal. Water consumption in all livelihood zones is above the Long Term Average (LTA): in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones it is 12 – 15 litres per person per day compared with the LTA of 10 – 12 litres, while in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones it is 15 – 20 litres per person per day compared with the LTA of 12 – 15 litres. The proportion of children under five years at risk of malnutrition as measured by mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC <135 millimetres) in January 2016 was 12 percent which was below the LTA of 16.6 percent. Global acute malnutrition (GAM) rate was 6.9 percent (Kenya demographic health survey, 2014). The mean coping strategy index (CSI) in December 2015 was 29 compared with 21 in December 2014, implying that households were engaging more frequently in insurance coping strategies. Terms of trade are 68 compared with LTA of 66, a three percent increase. 3 2.1 Food Security Trends During the Long Rains Assessment (LRA) of 2015, the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones were classified in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) while the mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones were classified in the Minimal (IPC Phase 1).With fair temporal and uneven spatial distribution of short rains, the county phase classification has remained the same. In May 2015, household food consumption scores were 15 percent, 51 percent and 34 percent for poor, borderline and acceptable categories respectively. However, by December 2015, the households with poor borderline and acceptable food consumption scores had improved to eight, 23 percent and 69 percent respectively. The available maize stocks are estimated to last for 3 – 4 months in mixed farming livelihood zone whereas pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones are market dependent. Households are able to consume 2 – 3 meals per day which is similar to the previous season. Household milk production in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones was 1.5 litres compared to the normal of 2 litres per day. Milk consumption was 1.5 litres per day compared to normal of three litres. Milk production and consumption remained similar to the previous season. Since August 2015, water consumption has remained stable at 17.5 liters per person per day. Terms of trade have improved in the pastoral livelihood zone by eight percent in the last six months where a household could purchase 68 kilograms of maize from the sale of one goat compared with 63 kilograms in the previous season. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC <135 millimetres) dropped by 19 percent from 14.8 percent in August 2015 to 12 percent in January 2016, indicative of an improvement in nutrition levels. 2.2 Rainfall Performance The onset was timely in the second dekad (10 day period) of October. Rainfall amounts were generally above 90 percent of normal characterized by fair temporal and uneven spatial distribution. Most of the Upper Northern and Southern Eastern tip part of the county especially Kolowa and parts of Kisamana received 140 to 200 percent of normal rainfall. The lower Northern part of the county received 125-140 percent of normal rainfall including areas of Bartabwa, Kabartonjo and Mukutani. The Western, Northeastern, South Western and Upper Southern received 90-125 percent of normal rainfall. Rainfall cessation was timely in the third dekad of December, although off season rains continued into January 2016 across all livelihood zones. Figure 2. Rainfall performance 2.3 Current Shocks and Hazards The reported diseases in the county included; Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in Koibatek sub- county, Contagious Caprine Pleura pneumonia (CCPP) across all livelihood zones, Pest des Petits Ruminants (PPR) in Barwessa and Kinyach in Baringo North, East Pokot, Mogotio (Kimose and Emining), new castle disease across all livelihood zones, East Coast Fever (ECF) in 4 Koibatek and Churo ward in East Pokot, Lumphy Skin Disease at Barwessa ward and Mogotio- Cheberen, and the ongoing rite of passage in East Pokot. 3 IMPACT OF RAINFALL PERFOMANCE, SHOCKS AND HAZARDS 3.1 Crop Production The County is most depended on long rains for crop production. The main crops grown for both food and income are maize, beans and cowpeas. Crop production contributes 20, 10 and five percent to food in the mixed farming, agro-pastoral and irrigated cropping livelihood zones respectively. It also contributes 35 percent, four percent and 60 percent to income in the same livelihood zones respectively. Table 1. Rain fed Crop production Crop Area planted Long Term 2015 Short rains Long Term Average during 2015 Average season production production during Short rains area planted during (90 kg bags) the Short rains season season the Short rains Projected (90 kg bags) (Ha) season (Ha) Maize 1,394 1,205 13,940 15,062 Beans 1,663 1,276 11,695 10,773 Cowpeas 82.5 38 342 99 Area under cultivation for maize crop increased by 189 hectares indicative of 16 percent increase above the LTA attributed to above normal rainfall and managed incidences of Maize Lethal Neocrotic Disease (MLND). The hectares under beans and cowpeas increased by 387 and 45 hectares respectively above LTA which is attributed to enhanced short rains and widespread sensitization on utilization of above normal rains. However, there was a decrease in projected maize production by 7.44 percent compared to the LTA (Table 1), attributed to delayed planting in some areas consequently the received rains not supporting the crop to physiological maturity. For beans production increased by nine percent while for cow peas production increased significantly by 245 percent compared to the LTA due to above normal rainfall which led to maturity of the crops in most of the zones that they were established. The area planted for other crops such as Irish potatoes, peas, finger millet, sorghum and sweet potatoes during the short rains also improved due to intensified campaigns to utilize above normal rains. Irrigated Crop Table 2. Irrigated Crops Production Crop Area planted Long Term 2015 Short Long Term Average during the Average (3 rains season (3 years) production 2015 Short years) production during 2015 Short rains season area planted (90 kg bags) rains season (ha) during Short Projected (90 kg bags) rains season (ha) Maize 1350 1250 67530 62,500 Kales 330 291 1650 1446 Water melon 90 80 1800 MT 1600 MT 5 Irrigation is mainly practiced in Marigat, and Baringo North sub counties. The irrigated area of maize and kales increased by eight and 13 percent while that of tomatoes and water melon increased by four and 13 percent respectively compared to the LTA (Table 2). The increase in the hectare for all the four main crops could be attributed to increased water volumes in the rivers that feed the irrigation areas as a result of enhanced rains in the upper areas and widespread sensitization to utilize the above normal rains by the Ministry of Agriculture. Production of maize and kales increased by eight and 14 percent respectively while tomatoes and water melon increased four and 12.5 percent respectively compared to the LTA. Maize stocks Table 3 Maize Stocks in the County Maize stocks held by Quantities held currently (90- Long Term Average quantities held kg bags) (90-kg bags) at similar time of the year House Holds 363,514 414,835 Traders 84,639 87,209 Millers 17,016 18,956 NCPB 30,840 37,226 Total 496,009 558,226 Stocks held at households decreased by 12 percent compared to LTA. For traders and millers, the stocks decreased by three percent and 10 percent respectively compared to the LTA as result of poor harvest of 2015 long rains season across all livelihood zones. NCPB stocks decreased by 17 percent compared with LTA and this is attributed to low supply and increased purchases from millers and traders. In the mixed farming zone stocks are expected to last for three to four months however both the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones are market dependent which is normal. 3.2 Livestock Production The major livestock in the county are cattle, goats and sheep. Production of honey is significant for income generation especially in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. In the mixed farming, agro-pastoral, pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones, livestock production contributes 23, 50, 88 and eight percent respectively to cash income. In the mixed farming, agro-pastoral, pastoral and irrigated livelihood zones, livestock production contributes 25, 20 21 and eight percent to food income respectively Pasture and Browse Pasture condition was good in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zone and fair across the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zone which was slightly better than normal with exceptions in areas of agro-pastoral areas of Majimoto and Kamar, Pastoral areas of Mondi, Silale, Akwichatis, Sibilo, Barketiew, Akorian and irrigated areas of Kiserian where the conditions were poor. 6 Table 4 Pasture Duration Pastoral Agro-Pastoral Mixed Farming Irrigated Current 1-2 months 1-2 months 3-4 months 3-4 months Normal 1 month 2 months 3 months 3 months In the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones on farm crop residues were used to supplement livestock feeds. Browse condition is good across the mixed farming, irrigated and the agro-pastoral livelihood zones but fair in pastoral livelihood zone. The browser condition is normal at this time of the year and is expected to last for two months with an exception of pastoral livelihood zone where it is to last for one month. Livestock Productivity Livestock body condition The body condition for cattle was good to fair across all livelihood zones which is above normal except in the localized areas named above which was fair. Normally, the condition is fair across all the livelihood zones at this time of the year but for goats and sheep was good which is normal. Birth rate and Tropical livestock Units (TLU) The TLU in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone was 1.9 for the poor households compared to normal of three per household while 3.2 for medium households compared to 3.7 the same season last year. In the pastoral livelihood zones, the TLU was 2.3 for poor while for medium households were 3.95 compared to 4.2 TLU the same season last year. A variation on average number of livestock was attributed to seasonal rainfall variations affecting forage availability and livestock diseases. The birth rates are normal for all livestock species but expected to decline attributed to livestock diseases, availability of forage and distances to water Milk availability and Consumption Milk availability at household level varies across the livelihoods. In the pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones households are producing 1.5 litres of milk compared to normal of two litres. Milk consumption in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones at household level is 1.5 litres per day compared to normal of three litres of which the deficit of one litre is from purchases. Milk availability in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood was at 4.5 litres per day per household which is normal. In mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones, households currently consume two litres which is normal at this time of the year. The current price of milk is Ksh 60 – 75 per litre in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones which is normal. However, for the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zone the cost of milk is normal at Ksh 50 per litre which is normal at this time of the year. Water for Livestock The major water sources for livestock include boreholes, water pans, streams, and rivers. The permanent natural sources are Lakes Baringo, Kamnarok and Lake 94; the rivers are Amaya, Kerio, Pekerra, Waseges, Molo, Arabal and Mukutani. The current trekking return distance from grazing to watering points is 4 – 7 kilometres which were normal in the pastoral livelihood zone with exception of Tiaty (Mondi ward) where the return distances were 7 – 10 kilometres. In the agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones, the return distance to water source was 1 – 3 kilometres which was normal. Water for livestock is expected to last for 1.5 months in pastoral, 7 two months in agro-pastoral and throughout in irrigated and mixed farming livelihood zones which are normal. The frequency of watering livestock in the agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zone is daily. However for the pastoral livelihood zone it is after every other day which is normal at this season. Migration The main grazing route encountered include Marigat-Arabal due to improved security, East Pokot towards Paka and Chesirimion, Maji-moto to L. Bogoria in search of pastures, Marigat to Kipcherere and Sibilo as fall back after improvement of pastures in those areas, Baringo North towards Barwessa. The normal out migration route was to Elgeiyo Marakwet County. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities The reported diseases in the county were FMD in Koibatek sub-county, CCPP across all livelihood zones, PPR in Barwessa and Kinyach in Baringo North, East Pokot, Mogotio (Kimose and Emining), New Castle Disease in Kipsasaraman, Salawa, ECF – Koibatek, Baringo north, Baringo Central Mogotio-Kelelwa, Kipsogon, Sinende, Lumphy Skin Disease at Kerio Valley area and Mogotio-Cheberen, Rabies –Baringo Central, Mange-Sibilo, Kolowa and Yatya and Blackquarter – Baringo North-Yatya. The county reported 80 mortalities of cattle and 40 goats and sheep due to bloat. 3.3 Water and Sanitation Major water sources The current main water sources in Baringo County are rivers/streams, springs, lakes, boreholes and pans/dams. In the mixed farming zone along the highlands of Tugen Hills, rivers, streams and springs are the main water sources while water pans, boreholes and to some extent rivers/streams are the main water sources in the agro-pastoral and pastoral areas. Most open water sources had approximately 70-80 percent recharge level. In the mixed farming livelihood zone, recharge was between 80 to 90 percent attributed to the October-November-December (OND) heavy rains however in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zone, the recharge levels were 60-70 percent attributed to high evaporation due to high temperatures and high levels of siltation. Distance to water sources The current return distances to water sources are 3 – 5 kilometres in the pastoral livelihood zone, 3 – 4 kilometres in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone and 0.5–2.5 kilometres in the mixed farming livelihood zone and irrigated livelihood zones compared with the normal of 4 – 6 kilometres, 4–5 kilometres, 0.5–2 kilometres in the pastoral, agro-pastoral and mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones respectively. Waiting Time The waiting time at water source was within the range of 5 – 10 minutes in both the pastoral livelihood zone and agro-pastoral livelihood zone. Mixed farming waiting time was within 2 – 3 minutes which is normal. Exceptional points like Kamar, Koibos, Molos and Majimoto, in Mogotio Sub-County, Bekibon, kapkun, Mbechot, Poi, Tuluongoiin Baringo south and Kasilangwa, Amaya and Keriwok in East Pokot Sub-county, the distance to water sources ranges between seven to eight kilometres and waiting time of 40 – 60 minutes. 8 Cost of water and consumption The cost of water varies across all livelihood zones. Water drawn from pans and rivers is free. However, from boreholes and piped schemes a 20 litre jerrican costs Ksh 2 – 5. In both pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones, this is normal while in mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones the cost of water is Ksh 2 – 3 which is normal. Water consumption is between 12 – 15 litres per person per day compared to the LTA of 10 – 15 litres per person per day in both pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zone whereas in the mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zone water consumption is at 15 - 20 litres per person per day compared to LTA of 12 – 15 litres per person per day. Sanitation and Hygiene Water in rivers, streams and pans were contaminated with human waste and upstream human activities. Water borne diseases such as typhoid and dysentery were common in the county especially in the pastoral and agro–pastoral zones for instance in Kambi ya Wakulima in Mogotio. About 95 percent of community members in pastoral and agro-pastoral do not treat water at household level. However, in irrigated and mixed farming approximately 50 percent treat their water through boiling and or use water guard. Water is normally stored in tins, plastic tanks or jerricans. Hand washing practices is at approximately 10-20 percent within pastoral and agro-pastoral whereas in irrigated zones and mixed farming livelihood zones is at about 40-50 percent. 3.4 Markets and Trade Market operations The main markets are Kabarnet, Eldama Ravine, Tenges, Barwessa, Marigat, Nginyang, Kipsaraman, Iloti, Amaya and Kapchorua. Food commodities sold are maize, beans, Irish potatoes, sorghum and finger millet while major livestock traded included: goats, sheep and cattle. Market operations were normal in all livelihoods. However, there was quarantine in Kapcholua in Koibatek in September 2015 of which ring vaccination for 20,000 cattle and situation was contained. Maize prices Maize price was retailing at Ksh 41per Average (2010-2014) 2014 2015 2016 kilogramme across the livelihood zones; this was 7.8 percent above the LTA of Ksh 60 38 (Figure 3). There was gradual decline ) g of maize from July to December 2015. k This could be attributed to availability of / .h 40 s maize from the long rains harvests. Stable K maize prices were observed both in the ( e 20 c mixed farming and agro-pastoral i r P livelihood zones at an average of Ksh 44 0 per kilogramme while pastoral livelihood zone recorded Ksh 50 per kilogramme, n a J b e F r a M r p A y a M n u J lu J g u A p e S t c O v o N c e D irrigated livelihood zone at Ksh 42 and Mixed Farming. Figure 3: Maize prices trends for Baringo County 9 Goat price Average (2010-2014) 2014 2015 2016 Goat price was Ksh 2,780 compared to 3500 LTA of Ksh 2,395 (Figure 4). The 3000 current price increased by 16 percent 2500 compared to the LTA and decreased by ) .h 2000 two percent in comparison to the month s K of August 2015 price. Higher goat price ( e 1500 c was observed in the irrigated livelihood ir 1000 P zone at Ksh 3,000 compared to Ksh 500 2,335 in the pastoral livelihood zone 0 a mn id x edK s fh a rm2, i8 n0 g0 lii vn e lia hg or oo d-p a zs ot no era . l Ha in ghd n a J b e F r a M r p A y a M n u J lu J g u A p e S tc O v o N c e D price was attributed to forces of supply Figure 4: Goat prices trends for Baringo and demand as well the ongoing rites of passage. Terms of trade Average (2010-2014) 2014 2015 2016 Households currently purchase 68 80 kilogrammes of maize from a sale of et a 70 zo one goat (Figure 5). The current terms i ag 60 ma of trade (TOT) were favourable to r 50 pastoralists and increased by 6 percent f oo f 40 compared to the LTA of 66 s m d e 30 g kilogrammes and also increased by a r gn a 12 00 eight percent compared to August o li Kh c x 0 2015 price. This is attributed to market e forces of supply and demand. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded a TOT of 55, irrigated livelihood zone recorded a Figure 5: Terms of trade for Baringo County TOT of 86 while agro-pastoral and mixed farming recorded a TOT of 65. 3.5 Health and Nutrition Morbidity and mortality patterns The five predominant diseases reported for both children under-five and general population were Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI), malaria, diarrhoea, pneumonia and eye infections. Generally, the morbidity for children under-five was high in 2015 than in 2014 (Figure 6) .URTI, malaria, diarrhoea, pneumonia and eye infection recorded an increase of 15 percent, 20 percent, 33 percent, 16 percent and one percent between January-December 2015 respectively compared to 2014. 10 URTI, malaria and diarrhoea cases 0 increased by six percent, 30 percent 0 0. 0 and 29 percent respectively between s 5 e s 1, January-December 2015 in a C d 0 comparison with 2014 the same e 0 period whereas pneumonia and eye t r o p e 0 0 10. , infection cases slightly reduced by R fo 17 percent and 1.5 percent r e 0 0 b .0 respectively in 2015 as compared to m 0 u 5 N 2014 (Figure 7). The distance to the health facilities on average in the 0 0 pastoral areas is 20–50 kilometres 0. URTI Malaria Diarrhoea Pneumonia Skin depending on the location. This is an Infection 2014 2015 improvement from 35 - 75 kilometres reported in 2014. In the Figure 6: Morbidity Trend for under five mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones, the average distances 00.052 r de em cra ei an se ed th ine sa mm oe r bi in d i2 ty0 15 i na s i tn h e2 01 g4 e. n T erh ae l population is attributed to the efforts put in se saC 00.002 place by both the county government and detro peR fo 00.051 p lea vr etn l e tr os ia mt pth roe v c eo hm em altu hn i at ny d a nn ud t rh ie tia ol nth s f ea rc vi il ci ety s re in the county. bm uN 00.001 Trends of epidemic prone diseases 00.05 T tyh pe hr oe i dw a as n a d s oig thn eif ri ca inn tt e sre tid nu ac l ti won o ro mf ’m s a cla ar si ea s, between July and December 2015 compared 00.0 URTI Malaria Diarrhoea Skin Eye Infection to 2014 same period by 60 percent, 14, Infection percent and 50 percent respectively while 2014 2015 dysentery and diarrhoea recorded an increase Figure 7: Morbidity Trend for general Population of reported cases of 10 percent and 11 percent respectively. There was a significant reduction of malaria and typhoid by 59 percent and 13.6 percent respectively for July to December 2015 compared to same period in 2014. This is attributed to the change of diagnosis from clinical to only rapid testing for malaria as a criterion of treatment occasioned by the availability of the rapid testing kits, the reduction in other diseases is attributed to community led total sanitation coupled with awareness and sensitization. This was largely seen in parts of both pastoral and agro-pastoral zones. Immunization and Vitamin A Supplementation The coverage of fully immunized children under five was 58.25 percent for the period July to December 2015, compared to 55.1 percent in the same period in 2014. This is below the national target of 80 percent. The percentage of children immunized against Oral Polio Vaccine 1 (OPV 1), OPV 3 and Measles was 99.1 percent, 98.8 percent and 95.3 percent respectively between July and December 2014 while coverage decreased slightly to 97 percent, 98 percent, and 92 percent respectively between July and December 2015. Vitamin A supplementation coverage for 11 children aged 6 and 12 months between July and December 2015 improved by 32 percent from 46.87 percent in 2014 to 62.2 percent the in 2015. Likewise, Vitamin A supplementation for children between 12 and 59 months increased by 62 percent between July to December 2015 from 14 percent in 2014 to 23 percent in 2015. The latrine coverage in the county was poor but there was an increase from 53.7 percent in 2014 to 59.2 percent in 2015. This could be due to reactivation of community health units and effort by public health unit to increase the coverage as a recommendation from LRA. Latrine coverage is approximately 79 percent for mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones, 16 – 20 percent for pastoral (lowest coverage) and 49 percent for agro-pastoral. The low coverage is a likely a contributor to the current levels of morbidity trend among children below five years of age. Nutrition Status and Dietary Diversity Kenya Demographic Health Survey Average (2010-2014) 2014 2015 2016 (KNBS, 2014) indicated GAM rate 0f 25.0 6.9 percent. SMART survey (2015) ) m reported a GAM rate of 18.8 percent in m 20.0 the pastoral livelihood zone, a 5 3 1 reduction from 21.1 percent observed < 15.0 C in 2014. The county GAM was poor A U 10.0 based on KDHS results while the East M Pokot GAM was critical based on ( 'k 5.0 survey results according to World s i r t 0.0 Health Organization (WHO) ranking. a ' The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition by Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC <135 Figure 8: Percentage of children at risk of malnutrition millimetres) dropped by 19 percent from 14.8 percent in August 2015 to 12 percent in January 2016 indicative of improvement (Figure 9).The levels of GAM noted in 2015 are associated mainly with poor child care practices across the livelihood zones but more pronounced in pastoral livelihood zone. The meal frequency for children aged between 6 to 23 months in a day was 2 – 3 meals as compared to the required 3 – 4 meals per day. Meal frequency was normal at this particular period of the year. Food Consumption Score (FCS) for households was poor, borderline and adequate at eight percent, 23 percent and 69 percent respectively. The situation is above normal at this time of the year. The main meals consumed were maize, potatoes, milk and beans. 3.6 Education The county has 662 Primary schools, 955 early childhood education centres (ECDE) and 152 Secondary schools in 2015 third term. 12 Enrolment TABLE 5 Enrolment figures YEAR ECDE PRIMARY SECONDARY 2014 49,239 139,362 35,500 2015 55063 154,954 36,096 Compared with the same period in 2014, there was a notable increase in enrolment of 12 percent, 12 percent and 10 percent in ECDE, primary and secondary respectively across all the livelihood zones by the end of the third term 2015 (Table 5). Boys’ and girls’ primary enrolment increased across all the livelihood zones by 3.1 percent and five percent respectively in February 2016 compared with the same period in 2015, while at ECDE the increases were 3 percent and 4.2 percent respectively for the same period. However, enrolment in the pastoral livelihood zone reduced by 4.5 percent for primary and 13.5 percent for ECDE for the same period, attributed to early marriages for most girls and initiation of boys from November-December 2015 (continuing). The school meals programme, the employment of an additional 1,833 ECDE teachers by the county government and the opening of more ECDE centres also promoted the increase in enrolment Drop out The dropout rate at ECDE was at 3.5 percent in 2015 attributed to insecurity in the pastoral livelihood zone especially in the second term, whereas primary school dropout rate was at 6.5 percent in the pastoral livelihood zone, attributed to insecurity and ongoing rite of passage in the pastoral livelihood zone. Attendance Rate Table 6. Rate of attendance as a percent of the enrolment Indicator Term I-2015 Term II-2015 Term III -2015 % School Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls attendance (Nos.) (Nos.) (Nos.) (Nos.) (Nos.) (Nos.) Primary 93.5% 91.8% 94.08% 91% 94.23% 92.13% ECD 95.3% 94.8% 95% 94% 95% 94.8% The rate of attendance as a percentage of the enrolment remained stable for both boys and girls in primary and ECDE in 2015 from term one to term three across the County (Table6) School Meals Programme The county is implementing two types of school meals programme; Regular School Meals Programme (RSMP) and Home Grown School Meals Programme (HGSMP). By third term 2015, RSMP and was supporting 112 schools while HGSMP was supporting 218 primary schools. About 30,099 pupils are currently benefits from RSMP up from 26,560 pupils in 2014 a 13 percent increase whereas HGSMP supports about 73,944 pupils up from 64,472 pupils a 15 percent increase. 3.7 Coping Mechanisms The mean CSI were five, 22 and 73 for poor, borderline and adequate respectively in December 2014 compared with eight, 23 and 69 for poor, borderline and adequate respectively in December 13 2015. Most common consumption related households coping strategies included; reducing the number of meals eaten per day, reducing the portion sizes of meals, relying on less preferred or less expensive food and borrowing food or relying on help from a friend or relative. 3.8 On-going Interventions by Sector Non- food interventions (food security related) Sub Intervention Location No. of Implementers Impacts in Cost Time County beneficiari terms of food (Ksh, Frame es security Million) AGRICULTURE Baringo Horticulture ALL 2,500 County Increased 1 2015- Central development department of incomes, 2017 project( Fruit Agriculture, productivity trees County and food development Government security drip kit project ALL 120 County Increased 0.14 2017 department of incomes, Agriculture, productivity County and food Government security Baringo Rehabilitation Barwesa 500 National Improved 80 2018 North and expansion ward Government supply of Kiboi availability of Irrigation food scheme Affruitation All wards 1200 County Improved 0.84 Continu project Government access to food ous Mogotio Horticulture ALL 2,500 County Increased 1 2015- development department of incomes, 2017 project( Fruit Agriculture, productivity trees County and food development Government security East Irrigated Tangulbei- 250 Farmers Enhanced Tenders 1 Year Pokot agriculture Chemoigut /WV,NDMA household floated &MAO food security and peace Koibatek Bulking irish Lembus 1200 County Improved 1.5 1 Year potato certified government food security seeds (6Acres) and community Drip kits All wards 120 County Improved 0.2 1 Year support to government food security farmers( 10 and community kits) Baringo Subsidized All wards 200 County Improved 0.3 1 Year South ploughing government food and community production LIVESTOCK SECTOR All Forage Barwesa/Sa 250 MOLD Increase October establishment imosoi forage yield 2015/20 16 All Capacity Pastoral 200 MOLD/ASDSP Better July - Building zones Quality Decemb 14 Sub Intervention Location No. of Implementers Impacts in Cost Time County beneficiari terms of food (Ksh, Frame es security Million) livestock er2015 Baringo Provision of Mochongoi 500 MOALF 0.25 July - north, Beehives Decemb Baringo er2015 South SaimoSoi All Livestock All lowland upgrading wards All Commercial All Wards 800HH County Govt, Income to 23 Decemb off-take SH Farmers er, 2015 Baringo Disease RVF prone 250,000 SH, County Good Oct- South, control(Vaccin areas in Cattle Govt livestock Dec, Baringo ations) RVF Marigat, Health 2015 North, SaimoSoi Tiaty and East Pokot Koibatek Disease Kapcholoi 20000 County Govt Good 0.4 Oct- control(Vaccin Cattle livestock Dec, ations) FMD Health 2015 All Tick control- County- 18 County Govt -Tick-free 2015/20 Dip wise Communiti livestock 16FY Construction es -Disease-free livestock HEALTH SECTOR County Vitamin A 6 sub - 92391 County Improved Supplementati counties department of immunity in on health, underfives' supported by resilience to WVK and illness. UNICEF County Zinc 6 sub - 1500 County Contributes Jan – Supplementati counties department of to preventing Dec on health mortality 2016 County Management 6 sub - 7083 County Contributes 3.696 Jan – of Acute counties department of to preventing Dec Malnutrition health mortality (IMAM) 2016 County IYCN 6 sub - 102656 County Builds the 0.65 Jan – Interventions counties department of resilience of Dec health caregivers 2016 County Iron Folate 6 sub - 258191 County Supplements 1.7 Jan - Supplementati counties department of where there is Dec on among health inadequate 2016 Pregnant diet diversity Women and Growth monitoring 15 Sub Intervention Location No. of Implementers Impacts in Cost Time County beneficiari terms of food (Ksh, Frame es security Million) East Capacity 39 78 County Capacity of 2 Jan – Pokot building on department of health Dec IMAM, health, WVK workers to 2016 MIYCN, and UNCEF implement nutrition services Strengthening 23 159,404 County Capacity of 5 Jan – of CHU – department of the Dec community health, WVK community 2017 health units on and UNCEF units to nutrition implement nutrition services WATER SECTOR Baringo B/H drilling All Wards JICA Improved 1,800 2 Years central, and equipping water Baringo 100No. accessibility North, South Baringo Whole Rehabilitation All Wards 20,000 Baringo County Improved 40 Ongoin county and expansion Government/Na sustainable g of existing w/s tional water supply Government services County Roof Water All Wards 30 BCG/RVWSB/ Improved 4.5 On Harvesting to Institutions NG water going Institutions availability County Expansion of Marigat, 5,000 Baringo County Improved 15 Ongoin irrigation North Government/Na food security g schemes Baringo, tional at HH level Tiaty , Government Mogotio EDUCATION SECTOR East Construction Tangulbei ECD/Prima Ation Aid Improved 2 6 Pokot of classroom Churo ry pupils Kenya performance Months Ward and 2015/16 enrolment Advocacy on Tangulbei Primary Ation Aid Improve 10 2013- girl child-anti Churo School Kenya retention and 2017 FGM forums Ward girls transition Scholarship for Tangulbei 27 Ation Aid Enhanced 0.405 2013- Girls Churo Kenya/ Kirerea Transition 2017 Ward Foundation from Primary to Secondary Scaling up of Tangulbei 112 UNICEF Improve 2 2016/20 Nutrition status Churo through WVI nutrition 17 Ward status of school going children 16 3.9 Sub-County Ranking Sub County food security ranking (worst to best) Sub County Food security Main food security threat (if any) rank (1-10) Mogotio 1 Inadequate pastures for livestock Poor crop performance Long trekking distances to water points Low water recharge level High incidences of livestock diseases East Pokot 2 Poor crop performance Inadequate pastures for livestock Long trekking distances to water points High incidences of livestock diseases Baringo North 3 Inadequate pastures for livestock Long trekking distances to water points Baringo South 4 Inadequate pastures for livestock Baringo Central 5 Post-harvest losses due to weevils and larger grain borer Koibatek 6 Post-harvest losses due to weevils and larger grain borer 4 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis Assumptions  The onset of the long rains in March, April and May will be timely and the temporal and spatial distribution will be favourable.  The market prices for cereals and livestock products will remain stable for the next three months.  The pasture and browse are expected to deteriorate in the next one month to early March especially in both the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones owing to the short dry spell. However from mid-March the situation is expected to improve.  The peace stability will prevail. 4.2 Food Security Outcomes for the Next Three Months Food Security outcomes from March to May Even though the food security situation is stressed for pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones, the number of households that will employ more frequent insurance coping strategies is expected to increase. Livestock sector production is likely to improve as pasture condition is expected to have regenerated and walking distances to watering point is expected to reduce. Cases of absenteeism and drop-outs are expected to reduce especially in ECDE across all the livelihood zones with the expected school feeding programme supported by the county government. Food Security Outcomes for June to August With the assumption that the 2016 long rain onset will be timely coupled with even spatial and fair temporal distribution, the above mentioned factors will be reversed. Terms of trade especially for pastoralists are expected to be favourable and food commodities prices are 17 expected to decline. Milk production, food stocks, number of meals taken per day and dietary diversity per households across livelihood zones is expected to increase. The nutrition status of children under-five years is expected to remain stable following the availability of milk. 5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Conclusion Pastoral livelihood is largely in the Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 2) while agro-pastoral, mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones are in the Minimal Phase (IPC Phase 1) expect Bartabwa area in the agro-pastoral livelihood which is classified in the Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 2). The food security situation is expected to remain stable across all the livelihood zones with more household employing stressed coping strategies in pockets of pastoral and agro-pastoral areas including Emining, Mondi, Loyamorok and Tangulbei areas. The Key factors to monitor include pasture and browse condition, water availability and access, livestock body condition and livestock and food prices. Since the county is long rains dependent, good performance of long rains is expected generally to improve the food security situation in 2016. 5.2 Summary of Recommendations  Enhanced rangeland management (disease control, pasture establishment and water improvement.  Livestock upgrading  Roof water harvesting of institutions.  Constructions of dams for irrigation water and domestic use.  Provision of water treatment chemicals and construction of toilet facilities.  Enhanced capacity building in water management and sanitation.  Reactivation and strengthening of community health units.  Sensitization and training of health workers on selected programmes( IMAM, IYCN and IMCI)  Increasing hectarage under irrigated agriculture in the low land areas.  Up-scaling and availing planting materials for drought tolerant crops. 6 ANNEXES 6.1 Annex 1.Food Intervention Required (Proposed population in need of assistance) Sub Population in Pop in need Proposed Remarks County the Sub County ( percent range min mode of – max intervention Mogotio 48,129 10-15 CFA Emining East Pokot 133,189 8-10 Mondi, Loyamorok, CFA Tangulbei Baringo 93,789 5-10 Saimosoi, Barwesa North CFA Baringo 84,256 5-10 Mukutani, Mochogoi South Baringo 78,095 - Central Koibatek 118,103 - 18 6.2 Annex II. Non-food Interventions (by sector) Sub Intervention Location No. of Proposed Required Available Time County beneficiaries Implementers Resources Resources Frame HEALTH County Strengthen County 805 ECDs MOE, Personnel, personnel 1 year wide linkages with wide (53,505) department of logistics, ECD health, WVK Funds and UNICEF (KSh.5.6 million) NDMA Data quality NDMA 12 sites NDMA, 0.5M personnel Three Sentinel assurance sentinel Department months sites sites of health, WVK and UNICEF County Scale up of County 120 health Department 2.5 million Personnel, 1 year wide HINI wide - facilities of health, RUTF, specifically new WVK and Drugs IMAM to new health UNICEF health facilities facilities County Capacity County 120 health Department 1.5 million Personnel, 1 year wide building of wide – workers of health, trainers new/untrained WVK and health UNICEF workers on IMAM, IYCN LIVESTOCK SECTOR Baringo Borehole SaimoSoi 500HH National Pasture Land and Feb- North, construction Ward Government. seeds labour June for livestock Regional Facilitatio 2016 water Pastoralist & n Resilience Project (KSh 4M) All sub- FMD Blanket All 500,000 GOK, KRDP, FMD- Personnel,Veh Feb- counties Vaccination locations Cattle,120,00 Other SH’s 52M, icles ,Funds- June and purchase 0 RVF- KSh. 2016 of vaccines Shoats20,000 0.9M, birds Others - 4.25M All sub- Capacity All Wards 600HH GOK,ASDSP Training- Land July- counties Building on KRDP/EU, 1M ,Hives Oct Diversificatio Action Aid, and 2015 n(Beekeeping ACTED, Child Equipment ) Fund, WV(K) s-24M Koibatek Pasture All 2,500HH County Govt., 1M Land Feb- Baringo Establishment Lowland National- &Personnel June North, - Seeds, wards MOALF 2016 Baringo Training Central, M&E Tiaty, Mogotio 19 Sub Intervention Location No. of Proposed Required Available Time County beneficiaries Implementers Resources Resources Frame Koibatek Livestock All Wards Sahiwals-12 County Govt 1.5M - Feb- BaringoN Upgrading June orth, 2016 Galla-30 Baringo LH Baringo Support Central, Programme Tiaty, Dorper-20 Mogotio AGRICULTURE SECTOR Baringo Water ALL 20,000 County 2.5M -Human 1 year central harvesting for Government, resource, food Ministry of production water and irrigation, Department of Agriculture Food Identified sites in 500 Rice 2 Million Human 1 year Diversificatio the Sub County promotion Resource, n Unit, County Suitable (Introduction Government, land and of Upland rice Relevant climate for improved stakeholders, food security) Department of Agriculture Provision of Sub county wide 1000 MOA Funds 0 1yr subsidized assorted farm inputs East Provision of Sub county wide 1000 MOA Funds 0 1yr Pokot subsidized assorted farm inputs Expansion of kolowa 1000 County 200M land 2years irrigation Govt,NIB,K VDA Baringo Environmenta Bartabwa and 2500 County and 20 M Technical 2yrs North l conservation Barwesa wards other Stake staff holders Provision of Bartabwa, 2000 County Dept. Seed, Land 3 Year drought Saimosoi and of transport tolerant Barwesa wards Agriculture follow up, planting Training materials materials Mogotio Drought Kisanana, 2000 County Dept. Land 3Year tolerant Sirwa,Mogotio, of planting Emining Agriculture materials 20 Sub Intervention Location No. of Proposed Required Available Time County beneficiaries Implementers Resources Resources Frame Metal silos Kisanana, 15 County dept. 15 silos 180000 1 Year provision emining, groups of agriculture Mogotio Koibatek Provision of SaosKibias, 300 HHs MoAL&F Improved 60,000 2015/20 hermatic bags Perkerra, food 16 for post- Kiplombe,Kabim security harvest o,Kabiyet and management Ravine Support 200 SaosKibias, 200 HHs MoAL&F Improved 260,000 2015/20 hhs to provide Perkerra, food 16 4 kgs drought Kiplombe, security tolerant crop Kabimoi seed and 10 ,Kabiyet and kgs fertilizer Ravine each. Establishment Esageri and saos 1000 MoAL&F Improved 6,000,000 2015/20 of 2 water HHs food 16 pans for security irrigation Capacity ALL 10,000 MoAL&F Improved 2,000,000 2015/20 Built farmers HHs food 16 on GAP security WATER SECTOR Mogotio, B/H Across all 2000HHs Baringo 20M Existing 3- 6 Baringo Rehabilitatio Livelihoo County structures months South, n and d zones Government, and water Tiaty, expansion of WV, UNCEF, resource Baringo existing National south, water Government,/ Baringo supplies RVWSB Central, Koibatek Whole Water Pans All 4000HH (12 Baringo 40M Existing 2 – 3 County De silting Wards/ No. water County structures Months livelihood pans) Government, zones WV, UNCEF, KRCS, CF, ADS, NDMA, National Government,/ RVWSB Whole Capacity All 6000HH Baringo 60M Organized 3- 6 County development livelihood County groups, months on water zones / Government, relevant management All Wards WV, UNCEF, TWG, and KRCS, CF, Existing sanitation ADS, NDMA, structures National Government,/ RVWSB 21 Sub Intervention Location No. of Proposed Required Available Time County beneficiaries Implementers Resources Resources Frame County PVC tanks All 100 Baringo 15M Existing 3- 6 10,000 Lts Wards/ Institutions County Structures months for Roof livelihood Government, Water zones WV, UNCEF, Harvesting KRCS, CF, to ADS, NDMA, Institutions National Government,/ RVWSB County Multi- Mixed and 10,000HH Baringo 600M Reliable 1 year purpose Irrigated (6No. dams) County water dams farming Government, sources, construction zones WV, UNCEF, KRCS, CF, ADS, NDMA, National Government,/ RVWSB EDUCATION SECTOR East Pokot Inclusion of Additional 1275 WFP/County Increase 15 M 2016/20 Upcoming 20 Children Government enrollment 17 Primary Schools , schools to performan RSMP ce and retention Baringo HGSMP/RS Barwesa, 4850 WFP/County Increase 10 M 2016/20 North MP Bartabwa, Government/M enrollment 17 Salmosoi OE , performan ce and retention Mogotio HGSMP Sirwa, 3112 WFP/County Increase 20 M 2016/20 Kingmoro Government/M enrollment 17 m, OE , Kisanana, performan Emining ce and retention Increase of Bartabwa 430 County Prevent 50,000 2016/20 Mosquito School Government/ Malaria 17 Nets and MOE cases Kipcherer Special Moi 29 County Improve 50,000 2016/20 Latrine Primary Government/ students 17 Construction School MOE welfare and health status 22 - Page 19