SEPTEMBER 2022 1. Drought situation overview The drought situation continued to worsen in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the failure of four consecutive seasons with the forecast for OND predicting the likely of fifth season under performing. The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance is projected to increase to 4.35Million by October 2022. Ten (10) counties namely; Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia, Tana River and Marsabit are under Alarm drought phase while Ten (10) counties including Embu, Garissa, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Kwale and Kilifi are in Alert drought phase. The remaining three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in Normal drought phase. Worsening household food security situation has resulted in acute malnutrition rates noted across the counties with 942,000 cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. 2. Drought situation based on key indicators 2.1 August Rainfall Performance Analysis of the August 2022 monthly rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties experienced near to below-average rainfall (less than 60mm of rainfall). The PNE1 counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received traces of rainfall between 10mm to 20mm of rainfall totals. The SEMA2 counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received very little rainfall in the range of (20mm - 60mm). The CMA3 counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties received between (10mm - 40mm). Some parts of Agro-Pastoral (AGP) cluster; Baringo and West Pokot received July-August rainfall that was normal to above normal in the range of 80mm - 200mm of rainfall totals with some areas especially Pokot South receiving very high rainfall totals of 200mm. Figure 1. August 2022 Rainfall Performance 1 Pastoral North Eastern 2 South Eastern Marginal Agriculture 3 Coast Marginal Agriculture Rainfall Forecast for OND Season The rainfall outlook for October November and December (OND) season is illustrated in figure 2. ASAL counties mainly fall under zone2 and zone3. Zone3 which comprises of PNE, SEMA, and CMA livelihood zones which includes; Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Meru, Kitui, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Embu and Kajiado are likely to recieve below average (highly depressed) rainfall. The chances of rainfall being below is forcasted at 65 with some chances of Near Normal at 20 and Above normal at 15. Zone2 which includes Pastoral North West (PNW) and AGP livelihood counties; Turkana, parts of Marsabit, parts of Samburu, West Pokot, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia and Baringo are forecasted to recieve depressed rainfall (Below Average Rainfall). The chances of rainfall being Figure 2. August 2022 Rainfall forecast below is forcasted at 45 with some chances of Near Normal at 25 and Above normal at 20. The south western parts of West Pokot county bordering Mount Elgon is forecasted to receive Near Average Rainfall. Generally, the OND season is forecasted to be a failed season just like its predicessors which calls for anticipatory action in the ASAL counties. 2.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3 depicts the vegetation condition index (VCI) in August 2021 with that in August 2022. Generally, the 2022 index indicates low values in the counties of Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Kajiado Garissa and Tana River. August 2021 August 2022 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) August 20212022 The month of August 2022 indicated a slight improvement in vegetation condition in the coast marginal agriculture counties of Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu and Taita Taveta and parts of south east marginal agriculture counties of Tana River. Mandera, Wajir and Turkana. The improvement is associated with the off-season showers of June-July-August season of 2022. The following 1 sub-county Nyeri (Township) is in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance. The following three counties (3); Isiolo, Samburu and Marsabit are in severe vegetation deficit while twelve (12) counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Kajiado, Laikipia, Embu, Kitui, Meru, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta and Tana River are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. Six (6) counties including; Turkana, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Makueni, Nyeri and Narok recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following two (2) counties including; Baringo and Lamu, recorded above-normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in August 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, August 2021 as shown in (Figure 3). The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (1) Nyeri (Nyeri town) Severe (3) (15) vegetation Marsabit Garissa (Balambala, Lagdera), Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South), deficit Samburu Kajiado (Kajiado Central, Kajiado East, Kajiado South), Laikipia Isiolo (Laikipia East, Laikipia North), Marsabit (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku), Meru (Igembe North), Samburu (Samburu East) Moderate (12) (45) vegetation Mandera Mandera (Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera West), deficit Wajir Turkana (Turkana East, Loima, Turkana North), Wajir (Eldas, Garissa Wajir South, Wajir West), Samburu (Samburu North, Samburu Tana river West), Garissa (Daadab, Dujis), Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen), Kajiado (Kajiado North), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South), Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural, Kitui West), Makueni Kitui (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome), Meru (Buuri, Igembe Central, North Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri Kwale (Mathira), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini), Kwale (Kinango), Taita taveta Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi), Narok (Narok South). Normal (6) (31) vegetation Turkana greenness Tharaka Nithi Baringo (Mogotio), Embu (Manyatta), Garissa (Fafi), Kajiado West Pokot (Kajiado West), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Malindi), Kitui (Kitui South, Makueni Mwingi Central), Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Nyeri Laikipia (Laikipia West), Makueni (Kaiti, Mbooni), Mandera Narok (Banissa, Mandera South), Meru (Igembe South), Nyeri (Kieni, Othaya, Tetu), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka) Turkana (Turkana South, Turkana Central) Wajir (Tarbaj, Wajir North, Wajir East), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Sigor), Narok (Narok East, Kilgoris, Narok West) Vegetation (2) (20) greenness Baringo Baringo (Baringo central, Baringo north, Baringo south, Eldama Above normal Lamu ravine, Tiaty), Embu (Runyenjes), Garissa (Ijara), Kilifi (Kilifi South, Rabai), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Makueni (Makueni), Meru (Central Imenti, South Imenti), Tharaka Nithi (Maara), Turkana (Turkana West), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Narok North). Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2022 2.3 Livestock production 2.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement realized when compared to the previous month due to failed MAM rainfall season which led to little regeneration of pasture and browse. The current pasture and browse condition would not last for long duration due to high concentration of livestock in the dry season grazing areas. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Embu Kitui Baringo Embu Kajiado Baringo Garissa Kwale Kilifi Garissa Kitui Kilifi Isiolo Narok Lamu Isiolo Kwale Lamu Kajiado Nyeri West Pokot Laikipia Meru West Pokot Laikipia Tana River Makueni Narok Makueni Tharaka Nithi Mandera Nyeri Mandera Taita taveta Samburu Meru Tharaka Nithi Tana River Samburu Turkana Taita taveta Wajir Turkana Marsabit 2.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition reported slight improvement as compared to previous month of July. However, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Most counties reported livestock body condition as fair-to- poor with the exception of Kilifi and Kwale counties which reported good body condition for cattle and goats as shown in Table 3. The fair-to-poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2022 long rains season, accompanied with early cessation which resulted to little or no regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, August 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Kilifi Isiolo Baringo Kilifi Isiolo Embu Kwale Mandera Embu Kwale Kajiado Kitui Samburu Garissa Laikipia Makueni Tana river Kajiado Kwale Meru Turkana Kitui Mandera Narok Wajir Kwale Samburu Nyeri Marsabit Laikipia Tana river Taita Taveta Makueni Turkana Tharaka Nithi Meru Wajir west Pokot Narok Marsabit Nyeri 2.3.3 Milk production The current milk production is below average as compared to normal year with only Kwale, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi counties at above LTA. Persistent dry spell period being experienced across the ASAL region led to poor pasture condition hence low milk production. Some counties including; Baringo, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Marsabit, Tharaka Nithi and West Pokot recorded an improving trend. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2022 Milk Kwale West Pokot Baringo Baringo Embu Kajiado Makueni Embu Isiolo Garissa Kitui Production Tharaka Nithi Garissa Kilifi Lamu Makueni Isiolo Kwale Mandera Meru Kajiado Laikipia Taita Taveta Narok Kilifi Marsabit Nyeri Kitui Tharaka Nithi Samburu Laikipia West Pokot Tana River Lamu Wajir 2.3.4 Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of August remained stable compared to the previous month as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Table 5 shows the trend of cattle prices. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2022 Cattle Embu West Pokot Baringo Baringo Embu Kitui Garissa Narok Isiolo Kwale Garissa Kajiado Kwale Makueni Kajiado Laikipia Isiolo Nyeri Lamu Laikipia Kitui Samburu Lamu Tana River Tana River Kilifi Mandera Kilifi Makueni Wajir Marsabit Mandera Taita Taveta Meru Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Meru Turkana Samburu Narok Taita Taveta West Pokot 2.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in most of the ASAL counties were at LTA. Majority of the trend was however stable and worsening. The counties on improvement of trend were Baringo, Kitui, Laikipia, Samburu and West Pokot. The following counties, Embu, Garissa, Nyeri, Wajir and Tana River reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat Prices, August 2022 Goat Kilifi Baringo Turkana Baringo Isiolo Embu Kwale Embu Meru Kitui Kilifi Garissa Laikipia Garissa Tharaka Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Kitui Lamu Nithi West Pokot Mandera Tana River Narok Makueni Wajir Samburu Marsabit Wajir Samburu Kajiado Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Marsabit Narok West Pokot Isiolo Turkana Tana River Mandera Meru Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Kwale 2.3.6 Livestock Mortality The counties of Samburu, Mandera, Isiolo, Lamu, Marsabit and Garissa have registered slightly above normal mortality rates as drought conditions persisted in ASAL counties following failed successive rain seasons. This has led to conditions of severe to vegetation deficit coupled with challenged access to water. These have led to increased trekking distances to water points and grazing sites for livestock leading to worsening livestock body condition scores leading to mortality attributed to drought effects. 2.4 Crop production In the marginal agricultural areas of CMA counties, harvesting was ongoing in parts of Kilifi, Kwale, and Taita Taveta and South east marginal agriculture counties of Kitui and Makueni. However harvests are below normal. Land preparation is ongoing across the counties. 2.4.1 Maize prices In the counties of Baringo, Embu, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Samburu, West Pokot, Marsabit and Nyeri, the price of maize was at an improving trend in the month under review while eight registered stable prices as the remaining five counties showed worsening prices compared to the previous month, as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, August 2022 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Baringo Isiolo Garissa Prices Garissa Embu Kitui Kilifi Embu Kwale Lamu Kajiado Isiolo Laikipia Mandera Taita Taveta Kajiado Makueni Meru Wajir Kilifi Narok Tana River Kitui Samburu Tharaka Nithi Kwale West Pokot Turkana Laikipia Marsabit Makueni Nyeri Taita-Taveta 2.5 WATER ACCESS 2.5.1 Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, distances to water for households in 17 counties is currently above the LTA. Five counties including; Baringo, Kajiado, Kwale, Samburu and Tharaka Nithi showed an improving trend. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2022 Distance Baringo Kitui Isiolo Baringo Isiolo Embu Embu Wajir Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Laikipia Garissa Garissa West Pokot Kwale Narok Kilifi househol Kajiado Samburu Nyeri Kitui ds to Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Lamu Kwale Wajir Makueni Laikipia West Pokot Mandera water sources Makueni Meru Mandera Tana River Marsabit Turkana 2.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is worsening across most of the counties. 82 percent of counties are above LTA with most counties being at worsening trend except for Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot and Makueni counties which are at improving trend. This is illustrated in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, August 2022 Distance from Baringo Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Meru Isiolo Garissa Embu West Pokot Wajir Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kajiado livestock Isiolo Garissa West Pokot Embu Kitui grazing area Kajiado Makueni Kilifi Lamu to main water Kitui Kwale Tana River Kwale Laikipia Wajir sources Laikipia Mandera Makueni Narok Marsabit Samburu Meru Taita Taveta Narok Turkana Taita Taveta 2.6 Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA) except Nyeri an indication of low purchasing powers across the households. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, August 2022 Terms of Nyeri Baringo Baringo Embu Isiolo trade Embu Kajiado Lamu Garissa (ToT) Garissa Kitui Mandera Isiolo Makueni Taita Taveta Kitui Meru Tana River Kwale Samburu Turkana Makueni Tharaka Nithi Wajir Marsabit Laikipia Meru Kwale Narok Kilifi Samburu Marsabit Taita Taveta Narok Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 2.7 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri Tana River, Turkana and Wajir recorded MUAC above the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Isiolo, Kajiado, Kwale, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River and Marsabit counties reported a worsening trend that requires close monitoring. Garissa, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, and Wajir counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2022 Baringo Embu Garissa Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Isiolo Turkana Embu Kajiado MUAC Kitui Meru Laikipia Kwale Kilifi Kwale Lamu Tharaka Nithi Kilifi Makueni Kitui Narok Makueni Taita Taveta Mandera Lamu Nyeri Mandera Samburu Tharaka-Nithi Taita-Taveta Samburu Marsabit Narok Garissa Wajir Tana River Nyeri West-Pokot Meru West Pokot Marsabit 3.0 Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of August 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, ten (10) counties including Embu, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Kwale and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase, while three (3) counties including Baringo, Lamu and West Pokot remain in the Normal drought phase. Ten (10) counties namely; Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia and Marsabit are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, three (3) counties reported an improving trend, three (3) counties recorded a stable trend, while seventeen (17) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, August 2022 Drought Trend status Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Lamu, West Pokot Baringo Alert Kwale Embu, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta Alarm Laikipia Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Marsabit Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th August 2022 BARINGO County 51.89 52.79 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Central 57.51 61 Normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement when Eldama 64.44 68.68 compared with the previous month of July. Mogotio maintained Mogotio 47.72 49.57 at normal vegetation greenness. North 45.43 50.89 South 51.14 50.74 Tiaty 52.21 50.54 MANDERA County 28.32 33.8 The county recorded moderate vegetation condition which is Banissa 31.85 35.78 stable when compared with the previous month of July. M East 19.04 21.25 Mandera east improved from severe to moderate vegetation Lafey 26.14 30.52 deficit. M North 30.26 33.73 M South 31.66 39.54 M West 24.77 32.62 TURKANA County 43.13 37.56 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness but still T Central 32.25 36.14 remained at normal vegetation condition during the month T. East 29.18 30.57 August. T. Loima 39.29 33.32 T. North 43.31 32.45 T. South 33.45 37.97 T. West 65.63 53.05 MARSABIT County 15.57 15.57 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition Laisaimis 16.37 16.42 during the month of August. Saku worsened to severe Moyale 19.77 17.98 vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation greenness N. Horr 13.77 14.27 Saku 20.56 19.31 WAJIR County 29.14 31.79 The County and most of its sub counties remained stable at W East 41.08 43.6 moderate vegetation greenness. W. Eldas 20.77 20.98 W. North 29.54 35.46 W. South 27.18 29.84 W. Tarbaj 39.33 45.4 W West 24.01 20.84 SAMBURU County 22.22 19.69 The county improved from Moderate vegetation deficit to S East 15.97 13.2 severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. S. North 28.6 26.2 S. West 25.66 23.64 GARISSA County 31.6 30.61 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit Balambala 9.52 13.92 during the month under review. Balambala and Lagdera Daadab 21.22 23.71 improved from extreme vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit. Fafi 40.08 36.4 Ijara 55.58 50.22 Lagdera 8.42 11.26 Dujis 20.97 25.92 ISIOLO County 12.29 13.77 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation I. North 12.95 12.92 deficit during the month under review. This was stable when I. South 11.27 15.08 compared to last month. TANA County 26.88 30.92 The county and all one of its subcounty recorded moderate RIVER Bura 22.69 30.28 vegetation deficit during the month of August. Galole 23.76 28.34 Garsen 32.38 33.09 KAJIADO County 27.25 24.84 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado K. Central 17.78 16.91 central and east maintained at severe vegetation deficit. K. East 19.66 17.96 K. North 60.26 27.29 K. South 17.62 19.53 K. West 42.91 36.51 LAIKIPIA County 19.41 20.5 L. East 19.75 16.45 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was an L. North 12.59 12.84 improvement. Laikipia West improved normal vegetation 32.02 36.8 greenness. L. West THARAKA County 46.53 41.03 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the NITHI Chuka 58.67 48.09 month under review which was a stable trend as compared to Maara 64.64 56.89 the previous month of July. Tharaka 36.16 33.31 WEST County 46.65 48.7 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded normal POKOT Kacheliba 43.31 46.56 vegetation greenness during the month under review which was Kapenguria 52.41 57.04 stable when compared with the previous month of July. Pokot South 64.56 61.38 Sigor 37.27 38.05 EMBU County 56.17 30.55 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate Manyatta 62.27 38.13 vegetation deficit during the month under review which was Mbeere North 51.09 27.12 deteriorating trend. Mbeere South 54.36 26.46 Runyenjes 67.64 45.16 County 33.92 34.6 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the Kitui Central 31.47 22.16 month of August. KITUI Kitui East 31.94 33 Mwingi Central 35.74 36.99 Mwingi North 32.9 30.06 Mwingi West 42.69 32.9 Kitui Rural 33.06 28.1 Kitui South 33.36 37.93 Kitui West 37.46 28.49 MAKUENI County 41.32 36.21 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the Kaiti 57.55 36.12 month under review which was a stable trend as compared to Kibwezi East 29.38 30.68 July. Kibwezi West 32.31 31.97 Kilome 28.64 20.29 Makueni 63.49 52.37 Mbooni 57.5 46.12 County 34.01 32.99 The county and five of its sub-counties recorded moderate Buuri 28.06 27.62 vegetation deficit. Central Imenti 58.84 54.11 Igembe Central 31.13 29.75 Igembe North 10.36 14.81 Igembe South 51.78 42.78 North Imenti 38.56 31.74 South Imenti 64.99 65.76 Tigania East 27.07 26.6 Tigania West 22.72 26.11 County 53.3 40.07 The county and all of its sub counties remained stable at normal Kieni 56.88 43.96 vegetation greenness. Township worsened from above normal NYERI Mathira 65.53 28.82 vegetation greenness to extreme vegetation deficit. Mukurweini 53.53 42.43 Othaya 59.11 43.26 Tetu 48.77 48.16 Township 52.33 0.99 County 27.22 29.7 The vegetation condition in the county maintained at moderate Ganze 18.87 21.84 vegetation greenness. KILIFI Kaloleni 22.36 32.59 Magarini 26.78 27.81 Malindi 39.73 37.62 Kilifi-North 44.44 48.81 Rabai 41.13 51.13 Kilifi-South 46.61 48.81 County 21.69 32.42 The county recorded a constancy at severe vegetation deficit KWALE Kinango 12.21 22.8 during the month under review. Lungalunga 26.84 45.06 Matuga 47.53 47.79 Msambweni 43.52 46.9 County 69.65 71.51 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal Lamu East 67.49 68.34 vegetation greenness. All the sub-counties showed Lamu West 70.9 73.34 improvement. County 23.2 24.52 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded moderate TAITA Mwatate 22.44 23.14 vegetation deficit which was stable when compared to the TAVETA Taveta 25.07 22.09 previous month of July. Voi 22.17 25.44 Wundanyi 28.66 30.4 County 53.3 42.13 There was deterioration in vegetation cover as the county Narok-East 56.88 43.19 normal vegetation greenness from Above normal vegetation NAROK Emurua Dikirr 65.53 56.29 greenness during the month of August. Kilgoris 53.53 46.55 Narok-North 59.11 52.51 Narok-South 48.77 34.68 Narok-West 52.33 40.48 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle.