May 2022 Situation Overview The drought situation continues to bite in seventeen (17) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2021 short rains coupled with previous two failed consecutive seasons and late onset of the 2022 long rains season. The number of people in need of assistance has increased from 3.1 million in February to 3.5 million currently. Eight (8) counties namely Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Samburu, Isiolo, Baringo, Turkana and Laikipia are in Alarm drought phase while Nine (9) counties including Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Tana River, Lamu, Meru (North), Nyeri (Kieni) and West Pokot are in Alert drought phase. The remaining five (5) counties including Kajiado, Narok, Makueni, Taita Taveta, and Embu (Mbeere) are in Normal drought phase. While one county, Tharaka Nithi, is in recovery phase. Drought indicators Rainfall Performance April marks the peak of the Long Rains (March-April- May) season. However, depressed rainfall was received over several parts of the ASAL counties with most of the counties receiving between 10-50 percent of normal rains with exception of parts of Makueni, Kajiado, Narok, Baringo, West Pokot, Kwale, Marsabit and Mandera receiving between 50-75 percent of normal rains. The rains were characterized by poor distribution in duration and geography. Figure 1. April 2022 Rainfall performance Rainfall Forecast for May 2022 The forecast indicates that North-western Region (Turkana, West Pokot, and Samburu): The first half of the month is likely to be characterized by near to slightly above average rainfall. North-eastern Region (Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo): Occasional rainfall is expected at the beginning of the month. The rainfall is however likely to reduce in the third to fourth week as the rainy season comes to an end. South-eastern Lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Tana River and Taita Taveta): Occasional rainfall is expected during the first half of the month. Figure 1. May 2022 Rainfall forecast It is however expected to reduce in the third to fourth week as the rainy season comes to an end. The Coastal Strip (Mombasa, Parts of Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kwale): is expected to receive occasional rainfall in May. Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in April 2021 with that in April 2022. Generally, when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is worse. Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of April 2022 showed deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi- Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of March 2022. The deterioration is associated with the late onset of long rains of 2022 in most of the ASAL area. 5 sub counties; Kilifi (Rabai, Kilifi-South) Laikipia (Laikipia-North), Mandera (Mandera East) Samburu (Samburu East) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance. Seven counties (7); Mandera, Kwale, Isiolo, Marsabit, Laikipia, Samburu and Wajir are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following six (6) counties including; Baringo, Garissa, Kitui, Kilifi, Tana- River, and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. Six (6) counties including; Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Taita Taveta, Tharaka-Nithi and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness while four (4) counties including; Embu, Lamu, Nyeri, Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in April 2022 is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, April 2021 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of April 2022 is provided in Table 13. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), April 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (5) Kilifi (Rabai, Kilifi South) Laikipia (Laikipia North), Mandera (Mandera East) Samburu (Samburu East) Severe (7) (25) vegetation Kwale deficit Laikipia Baringo (Baringo-Central, Tiaty, Mogotio), Garissa Isiolo (Lagdera), Isiolo (Isiolo North) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Mandera Kilifi North), Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga) Laikipia Marsabit (Laikipia-West) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera North, Samburu Lafey, Mandera-South, Mandera West), Marsabit Wajir (Laisamis), Samburu (Samburu West, Samburu North), Wajir (Wajir East, Eldas, Wajir-West, Wajir-South, Tarbaj), West Pokot (Sigor) Moderate (6) (28) vegetation Baringo Baringo (Baringo North, Baringo South, Eldama ravine) deficit Garissa Garissa (Balambala, Dadaab) Isiolo (Isiolo-South) Kilifi Kitui (Magarini, Malindi) Kitui (Kitui-East, Mwingi Central, Kitui South) Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia Tana-river (Laikipia East) Marsabit (North Horr, Moyale, Saku), Meru (Igembe North,) Taita-Taveta (Voi) Tana River (Bura, Galole) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Turkana (Turkana East, Turkana North, Turkana-West) Wajir (Wajir North) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria) Normal (6) (28) vegetation Kajiado Embu (Mbeere-South) Garissa (Fafi, Township) greenness Makueni Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado- East, Kajiado- North, Kajiado-West, Kajiado-South) Kitui (, Kitui -central, Mwingi West, Mwingi North, Kitui-Rural, Kitui West), Lamu (Lamu East) Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Makueni,) Meru (Buuri, Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West) Nyeri (Mukurweini) Taita-Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi), Tana River (Garsen), West-Pokot (West-Pokot South) Vegetation (4) (27) greenness Embu Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, Runyenjes) Garissa Above Lamu (Ijara,) Lamu (Lamu West), Makueni (Kaiti, Kilome, normal Narok Mbooni) Meru (Central Imenti, South Imenti,), Narok Nyeri (Narok-East, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-South, Narok-East, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Othaya, Tetu, Township), Taita-Taveta (Mwatate) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor to fair conditions while browse was at fair condition in most counties as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with no improvement recorded as compared to the previous month due to depressed rains received in the ongoing MAM season coupled with delayed onset and previous failed seasons. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, April 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Embu Baringo Embu Makueni Isiolo Garissa Isiolo Garissa Narok Kilifi Kajiado Kilifi Kajiado Kwale Kitui Lamu Kitui Laikipia Makueni Mandera Kwale Lamu Meru Marsabit Laikipia Mandera Taita Taveta Turkana Meru Marsabit Tana River Samburu Samburu Tharaka Taita Taveta Turkana Nithi Tana River Wajir Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Wajir Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition has worsened as compared to previous month. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties have deteriorated from fair to poor livestock body condition. Conversely though, Makueni, Kajiado and Taita Taveta reported good body conditions as shown in Table 3. The poor to fair condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 short rains season and the minimal downpours of the MAM long rains season resulting to poor regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, April 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Embu Makueni Baringo Embu Kajiado Isiolo Garissa Taita Taveta Isiolo Garissa Makueni Laikipia Kajiado Mandera Kilifi Taita Taveta Lamu Kilifi Marsabit Kitui Mandera Kitui Turkana Kwale Marsabit Kwale Laikipia Samburu Meru North Lamu Turkana Narok Meru North West Tana River Narok Pokot Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Wajir Samburu Milk production Milk production was below average but generally on a stable trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to the poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season, the insufficient and delayed onset of MAM period and persistent dry spell period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year although Kwale, Makueni, Marsabit, Narok and Tharaka Nithi recorded an improving trend. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, April 2022 Milk Garissa Narok Baringo Kwale Garissa Baringo Productio Makueni Tana River Embu Makueni Kajiado Embu n Tharaka Isiolo Marsabit Kitui Isiolo Nithi Kajiado Narok Lamu Kilifi Kilifi Tharaka Samburu Laikipia Kitui Nithi Taita Mandera Kwale Taveta Meru Laikipia Tana River Nyeri Lamu Turkana Mandera Wajir Marsabit West Meru Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of April remained stable compared to the previous month as illustrated in Table 5. However, the current cattle prices are below long-term average in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. In contrast, Embu Kajiado, Lamu, Meru, Narok, Tana-River, Tharaka Nithi and West-Pokot reported above normal LTA due to increased demand of livestock market as compared to low supply. Four counties reported an improving trend in prices whereas five counties did report a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, April 2022 Cattle Kajiado Garissa Baringo Isiolo Garissa Baringo Prices Lamu Isiolo Kwale Kajiado Laikipia Kwale Meru Kitui Laikipia Meru Kilifi Mandera Mandera Narok Makueni Wajir Embu Samburu Marsabit Tana River Nyeri Kitui Turkana Tharaka Lamu Nithi Taveta Makueni West Pokot Marsabit Embu Narok Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties ranged from above LTA and below LTA as compared to the previous month. The trend was however stable and improving owing to the minimal rainfall which resulting to regeneration of pasture and forage (albeit little) for goat consumption except for Isiolo county which reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat prices, April 2022 Goat Kajiado Baringo Garissa Kwale Baringo Isiolo Prices Kitui Kilifi Isiolo Laikipia Garissa Kwale Lamu Mandera Marsabit Kajiado Laikipia Taita Taveta Marsabit Narok Kilifi Makueni West Pokot Nyeri Nyeri Kitui Meru Samburu Wajir Lamu Narok Turkana Makueni Tana River Wajir Mandera Tharaka Meru Nithi Samburu Tharaka Nithi Livestock Mortality Livestock mortality was reported in some counties like Mandera, Baringo, Kajiado, Marsabit, Laikipia, Samburu, Wajir, Turkana and West Pokot reported mortality as a result of starvation and diseases. The rains were also a major cause of mortality as the weak animals succumb to it in counties like Mandera, Turkana and Wajir. In the marginal agricultural areas of Coast Marginal Agriculture counties of Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu and Taita Taveta, the ongoing trend is of land preparation as most of the planted crops wilted due to high temperatures. Most of the recently planted crops were at germination stage. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing drought resistant crops. Maize prices The prices of maize were at a stable and worsening trend in April as compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks. Garissa, Kilifi and Lamu are atclose to LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, April 2022 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Garissa Baringo Kajiado Prices Embu Kilifi Garissa Kilifi Isiolo Lamu Isiolo Kitui Kajiado Kwale Laikipia Kitui Mandera Lamu Kwale Marsabit Makueni Laikipia Taita Taveta Meru Makueni Tana River Narok Mandera Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Marsabit Turkana Samburu Meru Wajir West Pokot Narok Embu WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 16 counties registered distances to water for households as currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is stability and decrease in distance to household water source. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, April 2022 Distance Isiolo Baringo Garissa Baringo Isiolo Kajiado from Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Kitui Kilifi households Kwale Kitui Makueni Kwale Lamu to main Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Laikipia Tana River water Lamu Tharaka Nyeri Mandera sources Marsabit Nithi Samburu Meru Mandera Tharaka Narok Meru Nithi Taita Embu Wajir Taveta Narok Embu Turkana Nyeri West Samburu Pokot Access to water for livestock Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is improving across most of the counties. 61 percent of counties recorded above LTA livestock trekking distance to water point as shown in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, April 2022 Distance Baringo Lamu Garissa Baringo Kitui Isiolo from Isiolo Sambur Kilifi Garissa Meru Kajiado livestock Kajiado u Kitui Laikipia Narok Kilifi grazing area Kwale Makueni Makueni Taita Kwale to main Laikipia Tharaka Mandera Taveta Lamu water Mandera Nithi Marsabit Tharaka Tana River sources Marsabit Wajir Nyeri Nithi Meru Samburu Turkana Narok Wajir Embu West Nyeri Pokot Taita Embu Terms of trade Teams of Trade values are below the long-term average (LTA) and thus unfavorable to pastoralists which is 74 percent of the counties. The TOT is on a worsening trend as compared to the previous month of March. The worsening trend is as result of stable goat prices while maize prices has been increasing rapidly due to depletion of the stocks available among ASALs. Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, April 2022 Terms of Kajiado Lamu Baringo Nyeri (Kieni) Garissa Baringo trade (ToT) Kilifi Narok Garissa Wajir Mandera Isiolo Tana-River Isiolo Embu Marsabit Kajiado Tharaka- Kitui Taita-Taveta Kilifi Nithi Kwale Tana-River Kitui Embu Laikipia Kwale Makueni Lamu Marsabit Makueni Meru-North Meru Nyeri (Kieni) Narok Samburu Samburu Taita-Taveta Tharaka- Turkana Nithi Wajir Turkana West-Pokot West- Health and nutrition Most counties recorded a stable trend of MUAC, others showed improvement while a few have deteriorated as compared to the previous month,with. Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the seven counties was mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production as well as poor dietary diversity and reduced food intake at household level. Kitui, Mandera, Meru, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi and Turkana counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Garissa, Makueni, Narok, Kwale and Narok counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), April 2022 Baringo Kitui Garissa Garissa Baringo Kitui Mandera Laikipia Isiolo Makueni Isiolo Mandera MUAC Marsabit Taita Taveta Kajiado Narok Kajiado Meru Nyeri Embu Kwale Kwale Kilifi Samburu Samburu Lamu Narok Laikipia Tana River Tana River Makueni Lamu Tharaka- Turkana Meru Nyeri Nithi Wajir Narok Taita- Turkana Tharaka- Taveta Nithi Wajir West- West Pokot Pokot Embu Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of April 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, nine (9) counties; Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Tana River, Lamu, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni) and West-Pokot are in the alert drought phase while four (4) counties Embu (Mbeere), Kajiado, Narok, Makueni and Taita-Taveta are in the normal drought phase, whereas (8) counties; Baringo, Isiolo, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana and Wajir are at an alarm phase with one (1) county that is Tharaka Nithi is on recovery phase. During the month under review, eight (8) counties reported an improving trend, six (6) counties recorded stable trend while eighteen (8) counties reported a worsening trend. The trend displayed is as result of the down pours experienced during the month of April. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, April 2022 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Embu (Mbeere) Kajiado Makueni Narok Taita-Taveta Alert Garissa Meru North Kitui Kilifi Nyeri (Kieni) Kwale Lamu Tana-River West-Pokot Alarm Baringo Marsabit Isiolo Turkana Samburu Recovery Tharaka-Nithi Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 24th April 2022 BARINGO County 23.08 20.18 The entire county and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate Central 24.65 17.26 vegetation deficit which was stable when compared with the previous Eldama 36.43 32.51 month. Mogotio remained stable at severe vegetation deficit while Mogotio 16.21 13.12 Baringo central and Tiaty deteriorated to stand at severe vegetation North 24.19 21.2 deficit in the month of April. South 26.44 22.1 Tiaty 20.22 18.86 MANDERA County 12.05 17.01 The county recorded severe vegetation condition which is same as of the Banissa 14.41 18.93 previous month whereas Mandera East displayed extreme vegetation M East 9.48 9.11 deficit which is stable as compared to the previous month. Lafey 10.08 12.39 M North 14.07 16.84 M South 11.51 19.87 M West 11.44 19.1 TURKANA County 46.88 40.7 The county recorded a decline in vegetation greenness but still remained T Central 85.67 76.66 at normal vegetation condition. Turkana central and Loima sub-counties T. East 34.37 28.16 recorded above normal whereas Turkana west dropped from normal T. Loima 74.72 64.02 vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. T. North 31.65 26.99 T. South 54.86 50.16 T. West 38.27 33.52 MARSABIT County 21.42 18.87 The county deteriorated to severe vegetation condition during the Laisaimis 14.29 11.92 month of April. Moyale 18.87 21.49 N. Horr 25.56 21.86 Saku 30.88 23.46 WAJIR County 13.6 14.76 The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and extreme W East 8.54 13.14 vegetation deficit during the month under review with majority W. Eldas 10.31 15.19 remaining stable, However, Wajir East improved from Extreme to Severe W. North 15.27 20.83 vegetation deficit and Wajir North recorded moderate vegetation deficit from severe vegetation deficit in March. W. South 16.35 12.72 W. Tarbaj 11.08 15.75 W West 11.61 12.27 SAMBURU County 16.45 11.73 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit S East 13.87 8.55 during the month under review with exception of Samburu East which is S. North 19.1 14.55 at extreme vegetation deficit. S. West 17.81 14.95 GARISSA County 46.35 31.18 The county dropped from normal vegetation greenness to moderate Balambala 31.81 20.98 vegetation deficit during the month under review. Daadab 27.97 20.08 57.93 35.88 Ijara 70.29 51.73 Lagdera 16.17 12.3 Dujis 62.8 36.96 ISIOLO County 26.79 17.11 The county dropped from moderate vegetation deficit to extreme I. North 18.72 13.99 vegetation deficit during the month under review. I. South 39.12 21.88 TANA RIVER County 51.28 34.8 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit Bura 44.75 29.17 except Garsen sub-county which is at normal vegetation greenness. Galole 51.84 34.37 Garsen 56.47 39.85 KAJIADO County 41.12 36.52 The County and all of its sub-county recorded normal vegetation K. Central 38.01 36.88 greenness. Kajiado remained stable at normal vegetation condition K. East 45.2 35.3 K. North 49.53 44.06 K. South 36.34 36.34 K. West 44.8 45.64 LAIKIPIA County 17.17 12.46 The County recorded severe vegetation deficit with a deteriorating L. East 32.69 23.48 trend. Laikipia East was at moderate vegetation deficit and Laikipia L. North 13.95 9.44 North is at extreme vegetation deficit as of this month. L. West 15.69 12.79 THARAKA County 58.8 44.03 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month NITHI Chuka 67.33 57.76 under review which was a deteriorating trend as compared to the Maara 68.36 62.83 previous month of March. Tharaka 52.53 32.85 WEST POKOT County 27.4 25.46 The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation Kacheliba 29.47 26.61 deficit during the month under review which was stable when compared Kapenguria 29.34 26.89 with the previous month of March. Pokot South remained at normal Pokot South 37.21 35.49 vegetation greenness. Sigor still remained at severe vegetation deficit. Sigor 16.18 16.62 EMBU County 63.92 53.51 The county and all its sub-counties except Mbeere South recorded Manyatta 68.6 67.43 above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review Mbeere which a stable trend. 61.84 52.17 Mbeere 62.1 47.26 Runyenjes 70.22 64.14 County 54.57 32.92 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of KITUI Kitui Central 58.4 43.93 April with all of its sub-counties displaying a deteriorating trend as compared to the previous month of March. The situation of VCI in April Kitui East 58.72 33.69 has really worsened in the county with a huge margin. 54.05 34.01 Central 59.14 36.8 66.9 48.27 Kitui Rural 53.07 35.26 Kitui South 50.21 28.39 Kitui West 55.85 36.82 County 59.34 43.48 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month Kaiti 77.86 69.97 under review which was a worsening trend as compared to March. Kibwezi East 55.25 37.58 Kibwezi 56.33 37.9 MAKUENI West Kilome 65.96 56.02 Makueni 55.17 39.33 Mbooni 68.67 54.18 County 51.5 41.24 The county and six (6) of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation Buuri 49.41 39.98 greenness while 2 recorded above normal vegetation greenness during Central the month of April with Igembe North recording moderate vegetation 60.97 57.32 Imenti deficit portraying a worsening trend for the county during this month Igembe under review. 51.45 36.17 MERU Central 39.14 24.45 63.2 44.37 North Imenti 53.6 49.44 South Imenti 64.65 63.71 Tigania East 43.55 38.46 Tigania West 51.8 40.13 County 61.01 55.86 The county and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal NYERI Kieni 57.13 51.21 vegetation greenness except Mukurweini which recorded normal Mathira 65.61 60.07 vegetation greenness. Mukurweini 55.05 46.43 Town 73.62 52.54 Othaya 67.23 71.36 Tetu 58.54 65.94 KILIFI County 40.08 24.49 The vegetation condition in the county and two of its sub-counties was Ganze 36.26 19.68 at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review. Rabai Kaloleni 22.97 10.07 and Kilifi South deteriorated from severe vegetation deficit to extreme Magarini 47.38 31.77 vegetation deficit. Ganze and Kaloleni recorded severe vegetation deficit Malindi 36.7 23.51 which is a great decline in status as compared to the month of March. Kilifi-North 26.65 14.1 Rabai 13.82 3.85 Kilifi-South 17.74 8.35 KWALE County 26.69 18.55 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded a decline in vegetation Kinango 26.56 18.33 condition during the month under review which was a worsening trend. Lungalunga 23.44 15.51 The county recorded a severe vegetation deficit. Matuga 30.68 23.29 Msambweni 33.72 23.67 LAMU County 67.35 51.17 The County and its sub-counties recorded Above normal vegetation Lamu East 64.59 49.86 greenness except Lamu East which is at normal vegetation greenness Lamu West 68.94 51.92 which is a decline in values from previous month. TAITA County 47.5 36.4 The County recorded normal vegetation greenness which was stable as TAVETA Mwatate 60.98 50.68 compared to the previous month of March. Taveta 42.69 35.86 Voi 45.39 32.23 Wundanyi 49.98 39.42 County 58.26 67.25 Narok-East 47.92 55.45 NAROK Emurua There was an improvement in vegetation cover as the county and all of 66.28 71.79 Dikirr its sub-counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Narok Kilgoris 62.54 73.39 East and North improved from normal to above normal vegetation Narok-North 47.13 51.19 greenness during this month of April. Narok-South 59.27 71.59 Narok-West 64.55 72.81 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle.