December 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview Majority of the Arid and Semi- Arid (ASAL) counties experienced rainfall over the first ten days of December, albeit with reduced intensity compared to November. However, most of the ASAL counties registered cessation of the October-November-December rains during the month under review, except. Consequently, all the counties were categorised under the Normal drought phase based on the range of indicators monitored (environmental, production, access and utilisation indicators fell within usual ranges). The assessment of the impact of 2023 Long Rains on food and nutrition security conducted last July 2023 projected that the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance from October 2023 through January 2024 period would be 1.5 million due to above normal rainfall. However, negative impacts of the enhanced rainfall in some counties has undermined the food and nutrition security situation. Response interventions by the Government and other stakeholders mitigated the negative impacts to a considerable extent. The functioning of markets as well as flow of food and other commodities is returning to normal Figure 1: Drought phase classification in December 2023 across the ASAL counties. The planned multi-sectoral assessment of the performance of the October-December short rains on food and nutrition security will provide the actual number of people in need of humanitarian assistance. 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 December 2023 Rainfall Performance The month of December normally marks the cessation of the short rains season. Analysis of the rainfall performance in December indicates that most ASAL counties received less rainfall compared to November. Generally, dry weather conditions were prevalent in most places, with a few areas over the Southeastern lowlands and the Coastal region experiencing occasional rainfall that was near to above average. Marsabit, Narok and Wajir recorded rainfall amounts that were below 25 of normal, with Mandera not receiving any rainfall over that period. Garissa, Laikipia, Moyale and Nyeri counties recorded amounts that were 28-37 of normal, while rainfall reported in some parts of Figure 2: Rainfall performance Kilifi such as Malindi and Embu was about 60 of the long term mean. Among the areas that experienced near-normal rainfall ranging from 90 to 115 of normal were Voi, Meru and Kitui. Some counties experienced above-normal (enhanced) rainfall. These include parts of Kilifi such as Mtwapa and Msabaha, and Lamu whose percentages ranged from 165 to 180 of the usual rainfall. The highest monthly total rainfall exceeding 225mm was recorded in Embu and Taita Taveta counties. Additionally, isolated storms were witnessed in some areas, especially in the South Eastern Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) cluster such as Kitui, where rainfall ranging from 125 to 135mm was recorded in one day. 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for January 2024 The rainfall outlook for January is as shown in Figure 3. Sunny and dry conditions are expected to prevail for most of the month over several parts. Most parts of the Northern Pastoral cluster are expected to remain generally dry, though a few areas may experience occasional rainfall during the last week of the month. These include a few areas in Narok (near-to-above normal), the south-eastern lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, and Taita Taveta), Nyeri, Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Embu and the coastal region (Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu and the Southern parts of Tana River). A few areas over Southern Garissa are likely to receive occasional rainfall from the third week of the month. Light to moderate rainfall is expected during the fourth week of January in a few areas over West Pokot, Baringo, and Western parts of Laikipia. Turkana and Samburu counties are expected to experience temperatures ranging from 30 to 40 degrees Celsius, with a few areas anticipated to receive rainfall at the beginning of the month and over the fourth week. Intermittent rainfall likely to be near-to-above the long-term average amounts is expected across January in Nyeri, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi and eastern parts of Laikipia. Sunny conditions are forecasted for counties in the Pastoral Northeast cluster, with a few areas in Southern Garissa bordering Lamu likely to experience occasional rainfall from the third week. Near-to-above long-term average rainfall amount is expected in the Southeastern Lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, and Taita Taveta) and Figure 3: Rainfall forecast for January 2024 Coastal Strip (Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale) over January 2024. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Significant improvement in the condition of vegetation was witnessed across December in all the ASAL counties, with dense canopies evident over most areas due to the cumulative rainfall across the October to December season. Consequently, all the counties presented either normal or above normal vegetation greenness. This was a notable improvement from the previous period, especially in Taita Taveta which had moderate vegetation deficit in November. All counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness while a few sub-counties including Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East), Wajir (West, Eldas), Garissa (Balambala, Township) and Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta) reported normal vegetation greenness as illustrated in Table 1. Generally, the vegetation condition in December depicted further improvement from November as shown in Figure 4. November 2023 December 2023 Figure 4: Comparison of Vegetation Condition in November and December 2023 A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at the end of December 2023 is as illustrated in Table 1 disaggregated by sub-county. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index in December 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe Vegetation (0) (0) Moderate Vegetation (0) (0) Normal Vegetation (0) (8) Greenness Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East), Wajir (West, Eldas), Garissa (Balambala, Township), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta) Above-normal (23) (105) Vegetation Greenness Baringo, Mandera Baringo (Central, North, Eldama Ravine,Tiaty,South), Mandera (South, Wajir, Marsabit, North, East, Lafey, Banisa and West), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South and Garissa, Embu, Kitui, East), Marsabit (North Horr, Saku, Laisamis, Moyale), Garissa (Ijara, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Lagdera, Fafi, Daadab), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere North, South and Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, East, Rural, South, West, Mwingi Central, Narok, Isiolo, Turkana, Mwingi North, Mwingi West) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Garissa, Tana River, Makueni, Mbooni, Kibwezi East), Meru (Buuri, Central-Imenti, Igembe Kajiado, West Pokot, Central, Igembe North, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania Samburu, Taita Taveta, East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri Town, Laikipia Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Malindi, Rabai, Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (Lamu East, Lamu West), Narok (West, South, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, East, North), West Pokot (Pokot South, Kacheliba, Kapenguria and Sigor), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), Turkana (Central, West, Loima, South, East, North), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Galole, Garsen, Bura), Kajiado (Central, East, South, North, West), Samburu (East, North, West), Taita Taveta (Voi, Wundanyi), Laikipia (East, North, West) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The condition of pasture and browse improved further with all the counties reporting good and above normal, save for Turkana and West Pokot as shown in Table 2. Consequently, dense canopies of browse were observed across all the areas, which was attributed to the enhanced rainfall, leading to massive vegetation regeneration. Table 2: Pasture and Browse Condition - December 2023 Pasture Browse Turkana Garissa, Kajiado, Meru Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi West Pokot Kilifi, Makueni, Nyeri Makueni, Narok, Samburu Narok, Samburu Turkana, West Pokot Kitui, Isiolo, Lamu Kitui, Isiolo, Lamu, Wajir Wajir, Laikipia, Kwale Laikipia, Mandera, Kwale Mandera, Marsabit Marsabit, Nyeri, Tana River Tana River, Embu Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Embu 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Improved forage availability resulted in significant improvement of the body condition of all livestock species in December compared to November. Across majority of the counties, the body condition score for both cattle and small stock (sheep and goats) as captured through the pictorial evaluation tool (PET) was 4-5, implying good-to-very good body condition (Table 3). Reduced trekking distance to water sources resulting from adequate recharge of open water sources in close proximity to grazing areas also contributed to the favourable livestock body condition. The observed livestock body condition was above the long term range due to the good quality of forage. Table 3: Livestock Body Condition - December 2023 Cattle GoatsSheep West Pokot Garissa, Kajiado Nyeri Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi Nyeri Kilifi, Makueni, Narok Makueni, Narok, Kitui Samburu, Samburu, Turkana Turkana, Kitui, Isiolo, Lamu West Pokot, Isiolo, Lamu Wajir, Laikipia, Kwale Wajir, Laikipia, Mandera Mandera, Marsabit Kwale, Marsabit, Embu Tana River, Meru Tana River, Meru Tharaka Nithi, Embu Tharaka Nithi 1.3.3 Milk production About 52 of ASAL counties recorded an increase in milk production in December, with approximately 35 reporting unchanged milk production levels. However, Samburu, Lamu and West Pokot reported a decline in milk production, which is attributed to livestock diseases (suspected foot and mouth in West Pokot), diminishing pasture in some sites, migration of livestock from insecure areas, low livestock numbers occasioned by mortalities, among other factors (Table 4). Milk produced in approximately 39 of the counties was below the respective long-term average while about 17 of the counties reported unchanged quantities across the two periods. Notably, 44 of the counties recorded production that was above the usual range for the period. Stable or increase in milk production in the aforementioned 61 of the counties could be attributed to the increasing number of lactating herds and improved yield level per livestock occasioned by forage and water availability within shorter trekking distances. Table 4: Milk production - December 2023 Baringo, Lamu, Laikipia Garissa Garissa, Meru Baringo Samburu Isiolo Nyeri, Marsabit Isiolo, Nyeri Turkana Lamu Mandera Taita- Samburu Mandera Wajir West Pokot Turkana Taveta, Tana River Marsabit Embu Wajir, Kitui Kajiado Embu, Kilifi Tana River Kwale Makueni Kwale, Meru Kajiado Laikipia Narok West Pokot Kilifi, Kitui Makueni Tharaka Nithi Narok Taita Taveta 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Outbreak of sheep and goat pox and suspected foot and mouth disease was reported in Garissa, Kajiado (Mile 46 and Ewuaso Kendang) and Narok (Siana, Kilgoris Central, Naroosura and Nkareta ward in Narok West, Transmara West, Narok South and Narok North Sub-counties respectively). Upsurge of listeriosis (circling) disease in goats was reported in Waso ward, Samburu County. Equally outbreak of Rift Valley Fever was reported in Wajir with 52 of the 275 samples tested returning a positive for RVF. In Mandera, cases of camel deaths were reported Banissa and Lafey but the cause of death was yet to be ascertained. For large stock, cases of tsetse flies have been noted, especially in the plains of North Horr in Marsabit while rabies outbreak was also reported in Tigo(Marsabit). 1.3.5 Cattle prices A significant proportion of counties (43) recorded an improvement in cattle prices compared to November, with roughly 52 reporting prices that were typically the same as those recorded in December (Table 5). On the other hand, the reported market prices of cattle across all the counties were above the corresponding long-term average in December, except in West Pokot (due to the ripple effect of market disruption occasioned by imposition of quarantine to contain the spread of foot and mouth disease) while the one recorded in Nyeri and Taita Taveta was at par with the respective normal price. The observed positive trend in cattle prices could be attributed to the low traded volumes driven by pastoralists holding onto their valued assets and remarkably improved cattle body condition occasioned by availability of pasture in majority of the areas. Table 5: Cattle prices in December 2023 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa Taita- West- Garissa, Isiolo Baringo, Lamu West Pokot Isiolo, Mandera Taveta, Pokot Samburu, Embu Mandera Marsabit, Wajir Nyeri Tana River Marsabit Samburu, Embu Turkana Wajir, Kajiado Tana River, Narok Kwale, Makueni Kilifi, Kitui Turkana, Kajiado Narok, Nyeri Laikipia, Meru Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Taita Taveta Laikipia, Lamu Tharaka Nithi Makueni, Meru 1.3.6 Goat Prices There was a notable improvement in the price of goats across majority of the ASAL counties over the period under review, with 48 reporting an upward trend while 43 reported stability (Table 6). Due to the increased influx to the market with the anticipated cessation of the short rains, a negative trend was reported in Garissa and Laikipia. With respect to the long-term average price of goat, the reported prices during the month of December were above by a significant margin exceeding 20 in majority of the areas. The major factors influencing the observed price improvement include high demand triggered by low supplies in the market occasioned by reluctance by pastoralists to sell, market disruption as a consequence of the prevailing ElNio phenomenon, and considerably improved goat body condition driven by availability of quality palatable browse were. Table 6: Goat prices - December 2023 Above LTA At Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Baringo, Garissa, Narok Nyeri - Isiolo, Makueni Baringo Garissa Isiolo, Mandera, Meru Mandera, Embu Samburu Laikipia Marsabit, Samburu Marsabit Wajir Tana River, Lamu Tana River Kilifi, Kitui Turkana, Wajir, Kitui Turkana Kwale, Lamu, Embu, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kajiado, Nyeri Meru Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Taita Taveta Narok Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi West Pokot 1.4 Crop Production Agricultural activities entailing food and horticultural crops production usually take place in the Agro-pastoral, Coastal Marginal Agriculture and the Southeast Marginal Agriculture clusters. However, within the other clusters, a notable proportion of households practice crop production along the riverine areas of Tana, Daua and Turkwel rivers, among others. Generally, crop production activities were affected to a large extent by the flooding witnessed, with over 50,398 acres of farmland destroyed. The table below illustrates the situation across select ASAL counties. Table 7: Current status of crop production. Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Southeast Kitui Crop performance was largely affected by effects of leaching, with harvest projected to Marginal drop by about 50. Cases of pests resistant to drugs on legumes, particularly affecting cow peas and green Agriculture grams, were reported. Makueni Farmers along flooded rivers and upper zones of the county incurred crop losses due to water logging, with approximately 37,000 acres of irrigated land destroyed by floods. Presence of Fall Armyworm was also reported in Mbooni Sub-county. Meru Maize crop was stunted in parts of the Agropastoral Zone such as Lothera, Kandebene and Nkiluthu in Tigania West, Ithata and Kamweline in Igembe North and lower parts of Igembe Central, with below-average harvest expected. The stunted maize could be attributed to water logging due to the heavy rains received. Similarly, beans in various parts were destroyed by the floods experienced. Pastoral Garissa There was decline in area under crop production by over 30 due to the effect of floods Northeast and farmers also incurred losses in terms of destroyed irrigation infrastructure and loss of livelihoods. Tana More than 7,285 acres of cropland under rain-fed production had been submerged by River flash floods, resulting in extensive damage to the crops due to lack of oxygen. 1.4.1 Maize prices About 30 of the counties reported a decline in maize prices, while 57 recorded price stabilisation compared to November as Tana River, Embu and Laikipia counties reported increased prices across December (Table 8). The price increase in aforementioned counties was due to the negative impacts of the El Nino phenomenon that resulted in the counties being cut off from external supply sources, low crop yield in some areas attributable to the impact of pests, and other macro-economic factors. Concerningly, the reported prices across all the ASAL counties was higher than the corresponding long-term average prices for the period under analysis, except in Kwale and Lamu. Table 8: Maize prices in December 2023. Above LTA Atclose to Below Improving Stable Worsening LTA LTA Baringo, Garissa Kwale Garissa, Nyeri Baringo Tana River Isiolo, Mandera Lamu Marsabit Isiolo, Meru Embu Marsabit, Samburu Wajir, Kwale Mandera Laikipia Tana River, Turkana Makueni, Samburu Wajir, Embu, Kajiado Tharaka- Nithi Turkana Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia Kajiado Makueni, Meru, Nyeri Kilifi, Kitui Narok, Taita Taveta Lamu, Narok West Pokot West Pokot 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households The trekking distance to water sources by households majorly remained unchanged in about 52 of counties but slightly increased in 30 (Table 9). The distances ranged between 0.9 and 7.3 kilometres compared to the previous 1.2 to 7.7 kilometres, with the longest distance of 7.3 kilometres and 6.2 kilometres being recorded in Mandera and Marsabit respectively while the lowest of 0.9 kilometres was reported in Meru. Contrary to the previous month, households trekked over shorter distances than the usual to access water across majority of the counties as illustrated in Table 9. The slight reduction in trekking distance relative to the previous month could be attributed to the improved water availability occasioned by adequate recharge (averaging 90-100) in open water sources. Table 9: Distance from households to main water sources - December 2023. Isiolo Baringo, Garissa Kitui Baringo, Isiolo Garissa Turkana Mandera, Marsabit Makueni Mandera Marsabit Kwale Samburu, Wajir Nyeri, Tana River Samburu Lamu Tana River, Embu Tharaka- Nithi Turkana, Wajir Laikipia Nyeri, Kajiado, Kilifi Embu, Kajiado Meru Taita- Taveta Kitui, Makueni Kilifi, Kwale Narok Laikipia Meru, Narok Lamu West Pokot 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Livestock trekking distances were relatively the same as the previous month. Consequently, the distance ranged between one to 9.5 kilometres compared to 0.6-10.9 kilometres previously. The longest distance of 9.5 kilometres was recorded in Mandera while the shortest at one kilometre was reported in Meru. However, about 35 of the counties recorded a marginal increase mainly attributed to insecurity and high prevalence of livestock diseases in some grazing zones. Additionally, the prevailing distance was lower than the corresponding normal distance that livestock usually trek to access water in all the counties, except Laikipia and West Pokot (Table 10). Regeneration of forage encompassing shrubs and herbaceous species in sites around water points necessitated livestock to graze within those zones, hence the witnessed trend. Table 10: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources - December 2023. Laikipia Baringo Garissa, Isiolo Isiolo Baringo Garissa, Meru West Pokot Turkana Mandera, Marsabit Mandera Wajir, Embu Marsabit Kitui Samburu, Kajiado Tana River Kilifi, Kitui Samburu Makueni Tana River, Wajir Lamu Kwale, Nyeri Turkana Nyeri, Embu, Kilifi, Kwale Narok Makueni Kajiado, Laikipia, Taita- Taveta Lamu, Meru, Narok Tharaka- Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot 1.6 Terms of Trade The terms of trade improved and remained unchanged compared to the previous month in 57 and 30 of the counties respectively while Tana River, Laikipia and Kitui recorded a slight deterioration (Table 11). Therefore, pastoral households in the latter three counties remained disadvantaged due to the unfavourable terms of trade, implying they accessed reduced amount of maize through use of proceeds obtained from their most valued assets. The observed negative trend in these three counties could majorly be attributed to the rising cost of maize over December due to destruction of the road infrastructure following the enhanced rainfall, thereby affecting normal market functionality. Table 11: Terms of trade in December 2023. Isiolo, Mandera Samburu Baringo, Embu Garissa, Isiolo Baringo Tana River Marsabit, Turkana Lamu Garissa, Kitui Mandera, Wajir Samburu Kitui Wajir, Kilifi, Kwale Tana River Marsabit, Kilifi Embu Laikipia Makueni, Narok Kajiado, Meru Turkana, Narok Kwale Tharaka Nithi Laikipia, Nyeri Kajiado, Nyeri Lamu Taita Taveta Makueni Meru West Pokot Taita Taveta West Pokot The terms of trade remained below the usual range in 48 of the counties and above the long- term average in 43. Overall, there was an improvement despite the household purchasing power remaining low in the select counties, majorly constrained by the impacts of the El Nino phenomenon. 1.7. Health and Nutrition The nutrition situation was on an improving trend and stabilised in about 52 and 43 of the counties respectively but worsened in West Pokot (Table 12). The stable to negative trend in the listed counties could be attributed to the high disease burden such as diarrhea prevalence among children below five years, reduced milk consumption and poor dietary diversity occasioned by the high cost of living and El Nino phenomenon that hindered access to markets, and the general downscaling of nutrition-sensitive interventions. The nutrition situation remains a major concern in about 39 of the counties, which are currently reporting malnutrition rates outside the usual range. These include: Baringo, Garissa, Tana River, Turkana, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Makueni and Nyeri (Kieni). Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition based on middle-upper-arm-circumference (MUAC) measurement in December 2023 Baringo, Kilifi Marsabit Isiolo, Kwale, Samburu Baringo, Meru Marsabit, Samburu West Pokot Garissa, Kitui Lamu, Meru Wajir, Embu, Narok Garissa, Isiolo, Narok, Tana River, Turkana Tana River Kajiado Taita Taveta Mandera, Wajir, Nyeri Kitui, Lamu, Makueni Turkana, Nyeri Mandera Tharaka Nithi Kilifi, Laikipia, Taita Embu, Kwale, Laikipia, West Pokot Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Makueni 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of early warning indicators monitored through the drought early warning system, all the 23 ASAL counties are at the Normal phase with an improving to stable trend as shown in Table 13. Table 13: Drought phase classification - December 2023 Drought Status Trend Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Marsabit, Isiolo, Taita Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Makueni, Turkana, West Pokot Taveta Mandera, Meru North, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Nyeri, Lamu, Laikipia, Narok, Samburu, Kitui, Embu Alert - - - Alarm - - - Emergency - - Recovery - - - 3.0 Recommendations Table 14: Priority Recommended Interventions. No. Sector Intervention 1. Coordination Enhance coordination at both national and county levels to monitor the drought situation given the expected dry conditions between Jan-March 2024. 2. Food and safety Provision of food assistance and shock-responsive cash transfers targeting nets vulnerable groups. 3. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; Provision of water treatment tabs; and Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof water harvesting. 4. Livestock sector Strengthening disease surveillance and control to facilitate migration and access to markets. 5. Health and Support for hygiene and sanitation promotion; Provision of supplies for severe acute nutrition sector malnutrition (Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food - RUTF) and supplies for moderate acute malnutrition (Ready-to-Use Supplementary Food-RUSF). 6. Peace and Facilitating intrainter-community peace dialogue and resource-use agreements; security sector Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. 7. Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and Provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. Annex 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 31st December 2023. County Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 VCI values Colour Drought Category month month (3-month) as at 30th as at 31st Vegetation greenness Nov Dec above normal 2023 2023 Normal vegetation 35 - 50 greenness Moderate vegetation 20 - 35 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit Extreme vegetation Baringo County 60.23 62.35 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Central 71.64 64.2 remained above normal across all the Sub-counties, except Mogotio that recorded normal vegetation North 67.51 67.05 greenness. South 61.33 65.01 Ravine 62.19 52.93 Mogotio 42.35 47.29 Tiaty 59.92 65.49 Mandera County 73.83 84.47 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Lafey 71.43 86.16 remained above normal across all the Sub counties. North 71.92 87.08 Banissa 67.04 80.6 West 72.45 82.27 South 84.95 87.9 East 65.57 72.11 Turkana County 50.82 60.9 Save for Turkana East, all Sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness, including East 37.8 40.12 Turkana South and North whose vegetation condition South 41.24 54.15 was within the normal band over the previous month. Loima 60.32 77.64 Central 50.72 50.47 West 64.19 80.4 North 47.27 55.57 Marsabit County 65.48 83.7 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Laisamis 58.9 84.16 Moyale 57.49 77.37 North Horr 70.31 84.34 Saku 81.79 96.65 Wajir County 55.45 62.77 Continued improvement in the condition of vegetation was observed over December, with the vegetation Tarbaj 73.54 76.59 greenness ranging from Normal to Above Normal North 73.14 82.63 across the respective Sub-counties. South 45.28 57.03 West 45.14 46.92 Eldas 52.29 49.72 Wajir East 56.82 68.13 Samburu County 45.56 65.49 All Sub-counties reported above normal vegetation greenness and that represented a remarkable shift East 42.28 62.92 from the normal vegetation greenness previously North 50.1 71.27 noted across the county. West 43.22 55.83 Garissa County 46.89 61.21 Considerable improvement in the condition of vegetation was witnessed in December, with the Balambala 25.92 49.41 vegetation greenness being above normal across Township 29.39 46.37 most sub-counties. Only Balambala and Township Ijara 66.1 74.14 Sub-counties reported normal vegetation greenness, Fafi 43.41 63.06 a shift from the moderate vegetation deficit observed Lagdera 51.69 57.01 across November. Dadaab 43.62 55.17 Isiolo County 55.06 67.15 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the Sub-counties. North 51.25 65.63 South 60.89 69.47 Tana River County 38.78 58.99 Notable improvement in the condition of vegetation was witnessed in December with the vegetation Bura 30.01 51.38 greenness being above normal. Bura Sub-county Galole 37.34 58.16 recorded a significant improvement from the moderate Garsen 47.11 65.97 vegetation deficit reported in November. Kajiado County 44.63 64.4 Central 36.47 59.72 The county reported above normal vegetation greenness, with a significant improvement being East 37.88 59.61 witnessed in Kajiado South which was experiencing North 55.23 64.33 moderate vegetation deficit across November. South 32.09 61.43 West 62.07 71.51 Embu County 68.88 70.62 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Manyatta 71.18 70.92 Mbeere North 76.35 75.84 Mbeere South 62.09 67.23 Runyenjes 74.85 71.14 Kitui County 44.07 57.79 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the sub-counties. Central 60.22 63.59 East 50.95 60.48 Rural 59.92 64.73 South 41.46 58.01 West 47.46 58.54 Mwingi Central 39.07 53.41 Mwingi North 42.27 55.17 Mwingi West 52.18 66.23 Makueni County 50.32 62.72 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Kaiti 75.76 76.26 Remarkable recovery in vegetation condition was Kibwezi East 35.76 53.73 witnessed in Kibwezi East Sub county over the Kibwezi West 45.4 63.69 reference period. Kilome 57.04 64.37 Makueni 58.21 67.22 Mbooni 66.38 67.62 Meru County 60.49 67.23 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all sub-counties Buuri 52.6 65.94 Central-Imenti 65.05 65.59 Igembe Central 64.63 70.82 Igembe North 63.75 76.87 Igembe South 62.81 66.35 North Imenti 65.05 58.54 South Imenti 63.93 63.59 Tigania East 58.82 64.48 Tigania West 58.99 60.44 Nyeri County 58.4 62.9 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all the sub-counties, Kieni 54.3 63.65 with improvement being noted in Nyeri Town Sub- Mathira 58.61 59.27 Mukurweini 62.89 63.33 Nyeri Town 48.76 59.13 Othaya 72.98 67.98 Tetu 67.42 60.24 Kilifi County 39.98 54.64 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed Ganze 33.15 53.73 Kaloleni 46.43 61.48 Kilifi North 51.96 57.64 Kilifi South 48.46 52.43 Magarini 39.4 53.84 Malindi 47.81 56.16 Rabai 50.52 58.55 Kwale County 51.67 65.67 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all sub-counties, with Kinango 43.99 62.45 Kinango equally reporting a significant shift in the Lunga Lunga 60.77 73.94 condition of vegetation. Matuga 65.54 63.46 Msambweni 63.91 69.99 Lamu County 74.97 76.63 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness remained above normal across all sub-counties. Lamu East 61.77 69.15 Lamu West 82.6 80.96 Taita Taveta County 26.75 51.44 As a consequence of the enhanced rainfall received in the county, remarkable recovery in the condition of Mwatate 26.18 47.3 vegetation from the previous period (when moderate Taveta 25.6 46.75 vegetation deficit was recorded) was reported over all Voi 27.42 54.14 the sub-counties. Wundanyi 26.44 56.89 Narok County 64.27 73.36 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed across all the Sub counties. Emurua Dikirr 81.97 91.63 Kilgoris 68.91 78 Narok East 47.76 62.44 Narok North 45.91 58.95 Narok South 64.52 72 Narok West 76.62 82.96 West Pokot County 57.97 64.29 Similar to the previous month, vegetation greenness Kacheliba 52.07 59.81 Kapenguria 62.69 67.14 Pokot South 67.6 68.85 Sigor 59.03 67.34 Tharaka Nithi County 54.63 58.25 Vegetation greenness remained above normal across all Sub counties similar to the previous month, with Chuka 69.31 71.78 some slight improvement being noted in Tharaka Sub- Maara 59.71 62.45 Tharaka 47.47 51.81 Laikipia County 41.1 62.22 Above normal vegetation greenness was observed Laikipia East 47.75 71.98 Laikipia North 37.74 63.25 Laikipia West 44.17 55.57 Annex 2: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system. Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). 1. NORMAL indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental indicators indicators return to fluctuate outside seasonal norms expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are outside production indicators normal ranges fluctuate outside seasonal ranges Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification