BARINGO COUNTY 2018 SHORT RAINS FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT County Steering Group February, 2019 Esther Barasa (National Drought Management Authority) and Baringo County Steering Group 1.1. County Background .............................................................................................. 1 1.2. Methodology and Approach ................................................................................. 1 2.1. Rainfall Performance ............................................................................................ 1 2.2. InsecurityConflict ................................................................................................ 2 Other Shocks and Hazards ............................................................................................. 2 3.1. Availability ............................................................................................................ 2 3.2. Access .................................................................................................................... 7 3.3. Trends of Key Food Security Indicators ............................................................ 13 4.1. Education............................................................................................................. 14 5.1. Assumptions ........................................................................................................ 15 5.1. Food Security Outlook for March to May 2019 ................................................. 15 6.1. Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 16 6.2: Ongoing Interventions ........................................................................................... 17 6.3:Recommended Interventions .................................................................................. 21 6.3.1: Recommended food intervention ........................................................................ 21 Table: 17: Recommended non-food Interventions ....................................................... 21 Food security assessments are carried out twice a year by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and technical government departments of the County Steering Group (CSG) in conjunction with partner organisations. The 2018 short rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted from 11th-22nd February 2019. The overall objective of this assessment was to develop an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of short rains. The assessment was also to take into consideration the cumulative effects of previous seasons, and provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. The onset of the short rains was early in the second dekad of October compared to third dekad normally. There was uneven spatial and poor temporal distribution. The caseation was earlier than normal; the poor performance of the rains led to decrease in the acreage for both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture. It also led to increase in trekking distances to water sources. Forage was good to fair in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping, fair to poor in the agro- pastoral and poor in pastoral livelihood Zones. Livestock body condition was good to fair in the county. Milk production at household level was below the Long Term Mean across all livelihoods this was attributed to increasing distances in search of water and pasture. Milk consumption was stable in the county with exception of Agro Pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood zones which had low milk consumption due to low production and high prices. Livestock prices were above the long term average while food commodity prices are below the long term average especially cereals. Terms of trade are favourable at 80 percent above the long term average. The current maize stocks are 18 percent above the long term average. Proportion of households in acceptable Food Consumption category was 80 percent. This was attributed to availability of food at household level and markets. Reduced coping strategy index was at 13.5 a decrease as compared to the same period the previous year at 15.74. Households in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone were employing consumption based coping strategies more frequently compared to other livelihood zones. The proportion of children below five years who were at risk of malnutrition was within the normal range. The indicative food security phase classification for the county is Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. County Background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the North, Laikipia to the East, Nakuru and Kericho to the South, Uasin Gishu to the South West, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the West. The County covers an approximate area of 11,015 Mixed Farming square kilometres (Km) with an estimated population of 703,697 persons (Kenya 43 Pastoral National Bureau of Statistics, 2016 Projected Population). Agro Pastoral Administratively, the county is divided into six (6) sub Irrigated Cropping Counties namely: Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Central, Tiaty, Eldama Figure 1: Proportion of the Population by Livelihood Zones Ravine, and Baringo South. The County has four main livelihoods namely, Mixed Farming, Pastoral, Agro Pastoral and Irrigated Cropping. The proportion of the population in each livelihood is 43, 31, 22 and four percent respectively as shown in Figure 1. 1.2. Methodology and Approach A technical multi-sectoral and multi-agency working group comprised of government technical experts from water, livestock, agriculture, Health and nutrition and education sectors in county, NDMA and partners was formed by the CSG to analyse the food security situation for evidence-based decision support. The team, led by KFSSG, reviewed existing secondary data (including sectoral reports, NDMA bulletins, Knowledge Attitudes Believes and Practices survey reports), to establish the current food security situation and determine the trends. The team then conducted transect drives across the livelihood zones to assess the field situation through visual inspection techniques, interviewed Key informants and conducted household interviews. The qualitative data explained the changes in household food security during the season. The technical team analysed the available evidence in a transparent and consensus-building manner, and presented a preliminary report which was discussed and adopted by the CSG during a special meeting held on 22nd February 2019. 2. DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY 2.1. Rainfall Performance The onset of the 2018 October to December was early in the second dekad of October compared to third dekad normally.. However, progression of rains throughout the season was poor in all livelihood zones. Substantial rainfall amounts were only received during the second dekad of October and Figure 2: Rainfall performance first dekad of December. Spatial distribution was equally uneven. Cumulative seasonal totals were 90-140 percent of normal in the northern pastoral areas of Tiaty, Baringo South and pockets in Baringo North. The rest of the county received 51-90 percent of average rainfall. Rainfall cessation was late in the third of December compared to first dekad normally 2.2. InsecurityConflict Incidences of insecurity were reported in Arabal in Baringo South that resulted in loss of lives. The situation led to burning of a grazing zone in the area. There is a high tendency of collapse of markets along borders of Baringo North, Tiaty and Baringo South as well as displacement of persons especially in Mukutani ward. Tensions have been reported along the borders of Saimo soi and Bartabwa in Baringo North thereby leading to limited access to forage in those areas. Other Shocks and Hazards Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) was reported in Agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones of Mochongoi in Baringo South sub-county. However, the Baringo County government is carrying out vaccinations campaigns currently. IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY 3.1. Availability 3.1.1. Crop Production Rain-fed crop production is mainly done during the March to May long rains and contributes 85 percent to food. Crop production during the October to December sort rains contributes 15 percent to food. The main food crops grown in the County include maize, beans, millet, Irish potatoes, cow peas and sorghum. Other crops are grown are coffee, cotton and pyrethrum. Crop production is mainly practised in the agro-pastoral, Irrigated cropping and the mixed farming livelihoods. Food crop production contributes four percent to cash income in the agro-pastoral livelihood zone and five percent in both the irrigated and mixed farming livelihood zones. Maize crop contributes 63 and 21 percent to food in the agro-pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones respectively. Maize is grown for commercial purposes in the irrigated zones contributing 26 percent to cash incomes. Rain-fed crop production The acreage under maize and bean crop production was 90 and 85 percent below the five- year average. Farmers were advised by the Ministry of Agriculture to observe a closed season during the short rains to break the Fall Armyworm lifecycle. In addition, the delayed cessation of the 2018 March to May long rains affected the harvesting of the long rains crop and land preparation for the short rains season. As a result, maize and bean production dropped by 93 and 86 percent of the long term average (LTA). The area under Irish potatoes was eight percent above the LTA especially in Mochongoi and Eldama Ravine. However, production was 23 percent below the LTA due to the poor performance of the short rains. Table 1: Rain-fed crop production Crop Area planted Long Term 2018 Short rains Long Term during 2018 Average (5 year) season production Average (5 year) Short rains area planted (90 kg bags) Tons production during season during the Short the short rains (Ha) rains season (Ha) season (90 kg bags)Tons Maize 36 361 630 9,150 Beans 145 942 1,992 14,421 Irish Potatoes 1,308 1,212 13,080 16,932 Irrigated crop production The main crops under irrigated agriculture were maize, watermelons and tomatoes. Irrigation of high value crops is managed by men for commercial purposes while the women and children provide the labour on the farms. There was an increase in area under seed maize by 16 percent compared to the short term average (STA). The production of maize was below STA because most of the crop was affected by lack of adequate water especially during tussling. By comparison there was a decline in the area put under tomatoes and watermelons by 39 and 41 percent of the STA respectively. The high temperatures and high evaporation rates negatively affected the water quantities available for irrigation. Table 2: Irrigated crop production Crop Area planted Long Term 2018 Short rains Long Term Average during 2018 Average area season production during Short rains planted during production (90 the Short rains season (Ha) the Short rains kg bags) season (90 kg bags) season (Ha) ProjectedActual Maize 30 25 1200 1250 Tomatoes 20 33 360 2575 Water melons 61 85 1161 1580 3.1.2. Cereals Stock The maize stocks held by farmers and millers were 24 and 29 percent of the LTA while traders held stocks 22 percent below LTA. Maize stocks held by farmers include spill over stocks from the above average 2018 long rains harvests. In spite of the county having above average maize stocks, majority of the stocks are held by commercial farmers in Eldama Ravine. The rice stocks held by traders were below the LTA by 33 percent. Current millet stocks held by the farmers and Traders were above the LTA by 874 and 486 percent respectively. Generally the County had maize stocks above the long term average and this was attributed to favourable long rains, poor maize prices thus farmers did not sell their produce and minimal carry-over stocks from the 2018 long rains. The Pastoral and Agro pastoral zones have nil to minimum stocks and are depending on markets for their supplies. Traders are having below their long time average as most of them have maize stocks which are not moving as households have maize and they are not selling especially in the mixed farming and irrigated livelihood zones. Farmers are mostly likely to dispose of their stocks in order to purchase inputs for the long rains, so the stocks will decline drastically in the next three months. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the other harvest, but this depends on market prices where farmers can sell their produce within two months. Table 3: Commodity Stocks Commodity Maize Rice Sorghum Millet Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Farmers 736,130 593,945 300 1,463 524 24,780 2,544 Traders 80,344 102,373 1,640 2,465 475 644 3,108 530 Millers 26,432 20,444 - - 12 120 75 200 3.1.3. Livestock Production Livestock production contributes 88 and 50 percent to cash income in the pastoral and agro- pastoral livelihood zones. The main livestock species reared are cattle, goats, sheep, honeybees, poultry and camels. The county government has also been promoting rabbit farming. Livestock is usually grazed by male youth and women. In other cases, livestock are released to the fields and later return to the homesteads themselves in the afternoon. The short rains are important in pasture and browse regeneration after the long lean season of July to September. Pasture and Browse Condition Pasture and browse condition was good to fair in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones which is normal at this time. However, they were fair to poor in the agro- pastoral livelihood compared to good to fair normally. Pastures in the pastoral livelihood were poor compared to good to fair conditions normally. Pastures are expected to last for 1-2 months in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihoods compared to three months normally. Access to pastures in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones has been limited by insecurity especially in Chemoe, Natan and Arabal. Approximately 50 hectares of pasture were burnt during the recent skirmishes which was grazing zone for livestock from pastoral and agro pastoral Table 4: Pasture and Browse Condition Liveliho Pasture Browse od Zone Condition Projected Duration Factors Condition Projected Duration Factors to last (Months) limiting to last (month) limiting access access Mixed Good to Good 2 3 None Good Good 3 4 None farming fair Irrigated Good to Good 2 3 None Good Good 3 4 None cropping fair Agro- Fair to Good to 1.5 2.5 None Fair Good to 2 3 None pastoral poor fair fair Pastoral Poor Good to 1.5 2.5 Insecuri Fair Good to 2 3 Insecurit fair ty fair y tensions tensions Livestock Body Condition The livestock body conditions were stable in the Mixed Farming and Irrigated cropping livelihood zones but were good to fair in the Agro pastoral livelihood zone. The body conditions were normal for this time of the year. Livestock body conditions in the pastoral livelihood have deteriorated to fair to poor conditions, compared to good conditions normally, due to declines in pastures and limited access due to insecurity. Table 5: Livestock Body Condition Livelihood Zone Cattle Sheep Goat Camel Mixed farming Good Good Good Good Good Good NA NA Irrigated cropping Good Good Good Good Good Good Agro-pastoral Good to Good Good to Good Good Good Good Good fair fair Pastoral Fair to Good Good to Good Good Good Good Good Poor fair Tropical Livestock Units -TLUs The average tropical livestock unit is 3 for the poor income household and 4.9 for the medium income households. There were variations reported across various livelihood zones with pastoral livelihood zone having higher TLUs compared to other livelihood zones for both the two income groups as shown in table 8 above. Comparatively, the current TLUs are within the normal seasonal ranges. This is attributed to good conception during long and off- season rainfalls. Table 6: Tropical Livestock Units Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed faming 2.8 3 3.5 4 Irrigated cropping 2.6 3.5 4.2 5 Agro-pastoral 3 5 5 6 Pastoral 4.4 7 6.9 7 Birth Rates Birth rates were average in all livelihood zones following average conception rates during the above average March to May long rains. The deviations in birth rates across livelihoods were as a result of levels of forage and livestock body condition per livelihood zone. With the highest birth rates being in mixed farming and irrigated cropping and lowest in agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Milk Production and Consumption Milk production was below the long-term average in all livelihood zones following a decline in pasture and water resources. In the mixed farming and irrigated cropping zones, milk production declined to five litres per household per day compared to eight litres normally. Milk production decreased to one and two bottles in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods compared to two and four litres normally. Milk consumption has decreased mainly due to a reduction in production. Average consumption was one to two litres per household per day compared to 2 litres across in all livelihood zones. Reduced milk availability led to an increase in prices in the agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. Prices in these areas ranged between Kshs. 75-90 per litre compared to Kshs 60 normally. Livelihood zone Milk Production Milk Consumption Prices (Ksh)Litre (Litres)Household (Litres)Household Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Mixed farming 5 8 1-2 2 50-60 50 Irrigated cropping 5 8 1-2 2 50-60 50 Agro-pastoral 2 4 1-2 1.8 75 60 Pastoral 1 2 1 1.8 90 60 Table 7: Milk Production and Consumption Water Availability and Access The critical water sources for livestock include boreholes, water pans, rivers, streams, springs and lakes (Bogoria, Baringo and Kamnarok) similar to normal times. The recharge of open water sources was 30-40 percent during the October to December short rains. Continued use and high evaporation rates due to above average diurnal temperatures significantly reduced quantities of water held in these sources. As a result, livestock trekking distances to watering points from grazing areas has increased by 85 percent in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zone. Similarly, livestock watering frequency in these livelihood zones has decreased from once daily to four times a week. Table 8: Water availability and Access Livelihoo Sources Return trekking Expected duration Watering frequency d zone distance(Km) (No of days per week) Mixed Streams, Streams 1-4 1-1.5 Permanent Permanent 7 7 farming Rivers, Rivers, springs, springs, piped water, piped water, Irrigated Rivers, Rivers, 1-4 1-1.5 Permanent Permanent 7 7 cropping shallow wells shallow wells and springs. and springs Agro- water pans, Streams, 4-13 3-7 2-3 3 months 4 7 pastoral Boreholes, water pans, months rivers Boreholes Pastoral Bore-holes, Water-pans, 4-13 3-7 2-3 2 months 4 7 water pans, Bore-holes months Livestock Migration Depletion of pastures in the wet season grazing areas have led to migration of livestock, mainly cattle, to dry season grazing areas. Cattle from Saimoi and Soi in Baringo North, and from Tiaty have migrated to Silale, Paka, Mallaso and Korossi hills. Migration at this time of the year is typical. Migration into neighbouring counties is likely to start, which may led to conflicts especially at Kasarani. Diseases and Mortalities Livestock diseases reported in the county were Contagious Caprine Pleural Pneumonia (CCPP), Peaste des Petits Ruminants (PPR), and Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD). Prevalence of the diseases was within normal levels. Equally, disease related mortalities were within normal ranges. An outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) in Mochongoi ward was reported in Baringo South. Mass vaccinations and treatment by the veterinary department of the Baringo County government are ongoing currently. The department is also planning to carry out PPR and FMD vaccinations along the stock routes. 3.2. Access 3.2.1. Markets Operations The main markets for livestock in the county include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio and Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. The main livestock sold in the markets included cattle, goats and sheep. Food commodity markets in the county are Kabarnet, Tenges, Mogotio, Emining, Marigat, Barwessa, Eldama Ravine, Kollowa, Churo and Nginyang. The main food commodities included maize, posho, cassava, bananas, rice, beans, kales, cabbages and potatoes. Market operations were normal for most markets across the county. The main food commodity supplies come from within the county and also across the county borders from: Elgeyo Marakwet, Nakuru and Uasin Gishu counties. There were high volumes of food commodities traded in the county as traders held above their long term average stocks especially cereals. However, demand was currently low especially for food commodities as only 35 percent of the households were sourcing food from the local markets. Supply for livestock was low as most farmers were reluctant to sell their livestock; this led to better livestock prices. 3.2.2. Market Prices Maize Price Currently a kilogram of maize was below the long term average and long rains by 22 and 14 percent respectively. the prices are 31 percent lower as compared to a similar period in 2018.The low prices were attributed to cheap prices of the commodity from the neighbouring counties. Highest prices were recorded in the pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh. 45 per kilogram while irrigated livelihood zones recorded the lowest price of Ksh. 30 per kilogram. The low prices recorded in the irrigated Figure 2: Trends in maize prices livelihood zone were mainly attributed to the stocks at household levels and localM tariazed Perrisc.e sT he trend of maize price has been stable since September 2018 as shown in figure 3. In the Pastoral and Agro pastoral zones most farmers are purchasing from traders Goat Prices The price medium sized goat decreased Average (2014-2018) 2017 2018 2019 by six percent in comparison to 2018 3500 Long Rains. The current price is above 3000 the long term mean by 12 percent. The t prices were highest in irrigated cropping ).h2000 livelihood Zone at Ksh. 2,900 and lowest sK in Agro Pastoral livelihood zone at ecirP1500 Ksh.2, 400. The trend is attributed to 1000 good market dynamics and improvement of body condition due to availability of browse. The prices are likely to decline Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec if the dry period continues. Figure 4: Trends in goat prices 3.2.3. Terms of Trade The terms of trade wee above the long term mean by The terms of trade reduced from 79 during the month of December to 78 in January. The current TOT is above the long-term average by 80 percent. The favourable terms of trade were due to better livestock prices and low food prices. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest at 105.5 while pastoral livelihood Zone had the lowest at 69.5. The terms are better as compared to a similar period last year. Income Sources Livestock production is the main source Figure 5:Trends in Terms of Trade of cash income in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones; contributing 88 and 50 percent of cash income respectively. In the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones, cash crop production contributes the highest income proportion at 30 and 59 percent respectively. Other sources of income are food crop production, fishing, casual waged labour and small businesses with varied contributions to cash income as shown as shown in table 9 below. Table 9: Main Sources of Incomes Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral-all Agro-pastoral Mixed Farming Irrigated species Cropping Livestock Production 88 50 23 5 Food Crop 4 5 5 Cash Crop 3 30 59 Fishing 10 4 Casual Waged 1 15 20 10 Labour Small Business 1 4 7 5 3.2.4. Water Access and Availability Major Water Sources The main sources of water for domestic use were Traditional River Wells, rivers, pans and dams, lakes, boreholes springs and Shallow wells across all livelihoods. The recharge of the majority of surface water sources was 30-50 percent in all livelihood zones due to the below average short rains. Currently open surface water sources are about 20 30 percent of normal capacity due to poor recharge during the short rains. Although majority of boreholes are functioning optimally, Kolloa, Churo, tangulbei, Yatya, Kipsaraman, Mogotio, salawa, maji moto and kisanana boreholes have broken Figure 3: Water Sources down due to electromechanical break downs and poor management. The status of water levels in small dams and boreholes in mixed farming livelihood zones is stable while shallow wells, springs and rivers is poor in pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones. 70 80 percent water pans in Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood zones have dried up due to high temperatures. Generally the available surface water sources across all livelihood Zones is expected to last between one to one and half months except for Bore holes areas experiencing discharges as result of over- exploitation of water and is expected to last over 6 months Table 10: Main Sources of Water Ward Water No. of No. of Projected Normal of full Locality of Non- Livelih Source Normal Current Duration Duration Capacity operational Water ood (Three (3) Operatio Operati (Operationa that Recharged Sources zone major nal onal l Sources) water last by the sources) Sources in months Rains Pastora 1. Bore 6 4 Over 3 Over 6 stable Kolloa, Churo, tangulbei l Holes Months months 2.Water 7 3 1 1.5 3 4 15 - 25 Nginyang, Chesirimion, Pans Months Silale , Loyamarok, Tuwo 3.Lake 1 1 Stable stable Agro - 1. Bore 5 5 Over 3 Over 6 stable Yatya, Kipsaraman Pastora Holes Months months l 2. Water 8 3 1 1.5 3 4 15 - 25 Pans Months 3. Springs Mixed 1. Bore 8 8 Over 3 Over 6 stable Mogotio, salawa, maji Farmin Holes Months months moto, kisanana g 2. Springs 3.Rivers 3 3 1 1.5 3 4 10 - 20 Months Irrigate 1. Rivers 1 1 1 1.5 Over 6 10 - 20 d months months Croppi 2.Shallow 7 4 1 2 months Over 6 Reducing ng Wells months Discharge Distance to Water Sources The distances to water sources have increased by 125,100 55,67 and 40 percent in the Agro- pastoral, Pastoral, Mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones respectively as compared to normal distances. The average distances to domestic water sources were above normal at 7-9 kilometres in pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones as compared to the normal of 3-4 kilometres while the distances were above normal at an average of 1 3 kilometres in the mixed farming and irrigated cropping livelihood zones. The increase was a result of to the prevailing high temperatures and poor performance of the short rains. Cost of Water, Consumption and Waiting time at the Source The cost of water at the source was generally normal across all livelihood zones and has remained stable compared to the same period last year. A 20 litre jerry can retailed at Ksh 3-5 across all livelihood zones whereas vendors sold the 20 litre jerry can at between Ksh. 15-20 which also depended on the distances covered. Water consumption per person per day is below normal at 1520 litres per person per day in mixed farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones and 12-15 litres per person per day in agro pastoral and pastoral livelihood zones. The waiting time at the source ranged between 5-10 minutes in the pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood zones while in the mixed farming and irrigated zones the waiting time was on average 3 - 5minutes. However, there were extremes of waiting time at Logumgum, Naudo, Riongo, Loyeya, Kadogoi, Chepturu, chemoinoi, bekibon for over 2 hours. Table 1: Distances to Water Sources, Cost and Consumption Livelihood Distance to water for Cost of water Waiting time at Average HH use Projecte zone domestic use (Kms) (KES) water source (litrespersonday) d (minutes) duration of water Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current in (months Pastoral 4 - 5 8 10 2 5 3 - 5 3 - 5 5 - 10 15 20 12 - 15 1-1 .5 Agro-pastoral 3 - 4 6 9 2 5 3 - 5 3 - 5- 10 15 20 12- 15 1-1.5 Mixed 0.5 2.5 1.5 2 5 3 5 2 4 5 - 7 20 25 15 - 20 2 - 3 Farming 3.5 Irrigated 0.5 - 1.5 0.8 2.2 2 5 3 - 5 1 - 3 1 - 3 20 25 20 - 25 2-3 Cropping 3.2.5. Food Consumption There has been an improvement in food consumption scores; with majority of the population moving from poor and borderline to acceptable food consumption score in January 2019 compared to the same season last Figure 4. Food Consumption Score year as shown in the figure above. According to the drought early warning bulletin, there was no significant change in food consumption gaps across livelihoods. The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 25 percent and 3.3 percent in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zone respectively. A proportion of 3 percent 17 percent and 80 percent of the households across the livelihoods have borderline and acceptable food consumption score respectively. Currently more households across the livelihoods are consuming at least a staple and vegetable on a daily basis complemented by a frequent consumption of oil and pulses due to relative market stability, milk availability and availability of traditional green vegetables. 3.2.6. Coping Strategy The reduced coping strategy index was at 13.5 a decrease as compared to the same period the Figure 8 : Coping strategy Index previous year at 15.74. This implies that the frequency with which households are employing coping strategies has decreased. Households in Agro-Pastoral livelihood zone employed most coping strategies at 18.8 followed by Pastoral at 14.8. The irrigated zones employed least coping mechanisms at 2.6. Households in Agro Pastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones employed coping strategies such as reduced quantity of food consumed by adultsmothers to ensure that children had enough to eat, reduced the portion size of meals; reduced number of meals per day; friends or relatives; and relied on less preferred andor less expensive food. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1. Morbidity and Mortality Patterns Among the three most common diseases, among under-fives were Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI), Diarrhoea and malaria, as shown in the figure 8. The cases reported in January 2019 were less compared to a similar period the previous year. Upper Respiratory Tract Infections cases were highest at 3008 while malaria cases were least at 156. There has been a declining trend in 2018 as compared to 2017. But there was an increase in diarrhoeal cases among children under the age of five. Figure 5. Morbidity Mortality Patterns Morbidity Trends for the General Population Highest numbers of Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) were reported in Baringo North Sub County in January 2019 as compared to other sub counties. Malaria cases were highest in Baringo south. Generally there is an increase of Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) and malaria cases and a decline in diarrhoeal cases in 2018 as compared to the same period in 2017 Figure 6. Morbidity Trends for the General Population 3.3.2. Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Immunization coverage increased from 53 to 78 between July and December 2018 but remained below the national target of 80 percent. The increase in coverage for Fully Immunized Child was due to an increase in integrated outreaches and an increment of the cold-chain equipment. The implementation of outreaches and result based financing program, including support from Anya Uzi and other partners, also contributed to the improved immunisation coverage. Vitamin A supplementation of children between 12-59 months increased from 67.6 percent to 77.7 percent between July and December 2018 but remained below the national target of 80 percent. The increase in Vitamin A coverage resulted from Malezi Bora activities in ECDE centres, community health units and baby friendly community initiatives (BFCI) 3.3.3. Nutrition Status and Dietary Diversity According to January 2019 sentinel data from NDMA, 13 percent of children under the age of five years were at risk of malnutrition (MUAC135mm). The proportion of those at risk was 19 percent below the five-year average and five percent below 2018. Dietary diversity for children is between four to five food groups across all livelihood zones mainly starch, vegetables, dairy and dairy products and meat. In the mixed farming livelihood zones, the meal frequency for children under five years is four while adults have three meals a day which is normal. In pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones children less than five years have a frequency of two to three meals while for adults is one meals a day as compared to four and three meals normally. 3.3.4. Sanitation and Hygiene According to county ministry of health and sanitation; the county current total latrine coverage July to December 2018 was about 44 percent East Pokot being lowest with 3.2. Contamination of open water sources was prevalent as livestock wade directly into open water sources. Most water sources dont have a separate watering point for livestock and humans. About 30 40 percent of households in pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihood Zones reported persistent water related diseases like typhoid, amoeba, diarrhoea and malaria. There was a low water treatment practice in the county where drinking of raw water directly from the sources was predominant. Only about 10-30 percent of households reported to have treated water in the mixed farming livelihood zones either by boiling or use of chemicals. During current transect drive, In pastoral set up, not all schools have latrines an example is Tuo with a population of 89 pupils.in most communities, 90 of household have no access to toilets facilities. Hand washing is done in 2 critical times (Before and after eating as opposed to the recommended 4 critical times) agro pastoral and mixed set up, 70 households have and use latrines and Hand washing at three critical time 3.3. Trends of Key Food Security Indicators Table 11: Food Security Trends in Baringo County of maize stocks 150 118 held by households Livestock body Mixed Farming Good condition Good for all livestock species Irrigated Cropping- Good across all livelihood zones Ago Pastoral Good to Fair Pastoral Fair to Poor Water consumption Agro-pastoral: 20-25pd Agro-pastoral: 12-15pd (litres per person per Pastoral: 20-25pd Pastoral: 12-55pd Mixed Farming: 25-30 Mixed Farming: 15-20pd Irrigated: 25-30 Irrigated: 20-25pd Price of maize (per 42 36 Distance to grazing Mixed farming: 1 Mixed farming:1 -4 (km) Irrigated: 1-3 Irrigated: 1-4 Agro-pastoral: 3-4 Agro-pastoral: 4-13 Pastoral: 5-6 Pastoral: 4-13 Enrolment was stable Enrolment was stable in Enrolment was stable in in comparison to the comparison to the previous comparison to the previous previous term. term. term. Coping strategy index Mean: 14.1 Mean: 13.51 Agro-pastoral 18.2 Agro-pastoral 18.8 Pastoral 14.2 Pastoral 14.7 Irrigated: 3.2 Irrigated: 2.6 Food consumption Poor: 1.1 Poor: 3 score Borderline: 8.0 Borderline: 17 Acceptable: 90.8 Acceptable:80 4. CROSS CUTTING ISSUES 4.1. Education 4.1.1: Access (Enrolment) Early childhood development and education centres (ECDE) enrolment in Term 3 of 2018 was 27,139 boys, 25,498 girls totalling to 52,635. Term I (2019) the enrolment was stable in comparison to the previous term. Within the county (Table 12). The increase was majorly attributed to county government employment of teachers and provision of infrastructure. Primary schools in the county enrolled 78512 boys and 72966 girls which was marginal increase as compared to third term 2018. On average, the increase was prompted by the free primary education policy and none repetition in all classes and availability of food in schools. It was noted in Tiaty that the ratio of enrolment of school going age children was at a low percentage compared to those at home. This was due to retrogressive cultural practices and mode of livelihood. Secondary schools in the county recorded an increase of 10.13 boys and 7.62 girls from last year term 111 enrolment. This enrolment increased in Term I (2019) compared to Term 11I (2018) due to100 government transition policy in all secondary schools, establishment of day secondary schools and KCPE entry marks lowered. Table12: Enrolment Term I11 2018 Term I 2019 Enrolment Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total ECD 27,139 25,498 52,637 27,410 25,546 52,956 Primary 77,328 72,201 149,529 78,512 72,966 151,479 Secondary 21,858 21,041 42,899 24,322 22,776 47,098 4.1.2: Participation (Attendance) There was stability in attendance of pupils in ECD centres due to availability of extended surplus of Regular Meals Program in Tiaty Sub County however this might be hindered by water shortage experienced in most schools. Instability in attendance was reported in Baringo south due to delayed disbursement of school meals program funds from Government of Kenya to primary schools, since the beginning of the term to date. ECDE centres are currently relaying on primary schools for meals because they have not yet received funds for meals from the county government of Baringo. Other factors include long walking distance and severe heat. Primary school attendance is stable but will be interfered by water shortage, leading closure of some schools in Tiaty. Secondary school attendance is stable with exemption of Tiaty due to few and far away schools as well as their retrogressive cultural practices. 4.1.3: Retention (Drop out) There was no significant drop out reported although daily absenteeism was experienced from time to time across all levels. Drop out of girls from both primary and secondary school is normally associated with early pregnancies, household chores and lack of school fees. Boys on the other hand in primary and secondary schools drop out and household do not value education. The main reasons for absenteeism in school for ECD centres was due to long trekking distances and severe heat, primary and secondary schools were lack of food in school (delay of funds to primary schools). 4.1.4: School Meals Programme (SMP) A total of 336 public primary schools with 38,172 boys and 34,660 girls are under the Home- Grown School Meals Program (HGMP) supported by the Government of Kenya (GoK) through the ministry of education. Some 40,340 boys and 38,306 girls are not on any school meals program as they are considered to be in food secure areas. The Ministry of Education had not disbursed the funds to schools by February as it has done in the previous years.AS a result, school attendance is likely to be low from March 2019. Parent Association have an organized meals program in all day secondary schools. Table 13: School Meals Programme Sub-County HGSMP No. of Boys Girls Totals Schools Koibatek - - - Mogotio 67 10,602 10,508 21,110 B North 71 7,030 6,740 13,770 BCentral 34 3,210 3,140 6,350 Marigat 49 6,530 6,390 12,920 Tiaty 115 10,800 7,810 18,610 Total 336 38,172 34,660 72,832 5. FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 5.1. Assumptions According to Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), there is a 40 percent likelihood of average to above average 2019 March to May long rains in the county with a normal onset. There is also a 40 percent likelihood of below average land surface temperatures. According to FEWSNET March to May, 2019 food security outlook, pasture and water sources are expected to atypically to be above normal through with the onset of the long rains. Based on Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWSNET)s integrated price projections, maize prices are expected to remain below the 2018 prices and also the five year average maize prices over the scenario period with expected above normal long rains. 5.1. Food Security Outlook for March to May 2019 The food security situation in the county is expected to improve across all the livelihood zones with the anticipated above normal long rains. Household food consumption score is expected to remain stable with majority of households moving to acceptable food consumption score. Less severe food based coping strategies are likely to be employed by households with a significant reduction in the proportion of households employing stressed food based coping strategies. Nutritional status of children is expected to remain stable given the availability of milk and food at household level No food security related mortalities are expected between March and May2019. Given the on-going interventions, the phase classification is likely to improve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) with the exception of East Pokot (Tiaty) which will remain in IPC phase 2. 5.2: Food Security Outlook for June to August, 2019 Food security situation over the period June to August, is projected to remain stable. The rangeland and body conditions are expected to be normal following the above norma long rains, food security outcome indicators are expected to improve. Minimal food consumption gaps are likely to be experienced with a good proportion of households moving from borderline food consumption score to acceptable food consumption score due to availability of stocks and increased milk at household level. Households are not expected to employ moderate or insurance food based coping strategies like reducing the number of meals consumed a day or the portion of meal sizes. Nutritional status for children under five years is anticipated to remain stable due increased milk production and consumption. The phase classification for the county is expected to remain at minimal (IPC Phase 1). 6. CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS 6.1. Conclusion 6.1.1. Phase Classification The food security phase classification for the county is Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 2). The situation has worsened as compared to the long rains assessment in July where the county was classified at minimal phase (IPC Phase 1). 6.1.2: Summary of Findings The 2018 October to December short rains received were below normal and did not support pasture establishment. . Recharge of water sources especially open sources, water access, livestock productivity, Acreage under rain-fed reduced drastically by 90 percent and that under irrigated for seed maize increased by 16 percent. The available stocks are above the Long Term Average. The Goat prices are above the Long term mean by 12 percent. Terms of trade are currently favourable as 78 kilograms of maize can be purchased from the sale of an average-sized goat which is 80 percent above the long term average. Livestock body condition was good to fair and good in the Pastoral and agro pastoral and Mixed farming and Irrigated Cropping Livelihood Zones respectively Trekking distances are above normal seasonal ranges in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral Livelihood Zones. . Markets operations are normal across all livelihood zones There has been an improvement in food consumption scores; with majority of the population moving from poor and borderline to acceptable food consumption score in January 2019 compared to the same season last year. 80 percent of households having acceptable food consumption score, 17 percent having borderline and three percent having poor food consumption scores. The proportion of households with borderline food consumption was 25 percent and 3.3 percent in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zone respectively. The mean reduced coping strategy index was 13.5 for the county a decrease as compared to similar period last year at 15.7. The proportion of under-five at risk of malnutrition was 13 percent; the proportion is below the long term average of 16 percent 6.1.3: Sub-County Ranking Table 2: Ranking of Sub-County in order of Food insecurity Severity Sub-County Sub-County Ranking Current main food security threats (1Most food insecure, 4Least food insecure) Tiaty 1 Inadequate water Water quality challenges, High risk of malnutrition , Livestock diseases Resource conflicts, Insecurity ,Depleted forage, Baringo South 2 Livestock diseases (FMD), Inadequate water Water quality challenges, insecurity due to in migrations, malnutrition (Kampi Turkana) Human Disease emergence of Hepatitis B Baringo North 3 Inadequate water water quality challenges, livestock diseases, boundary Insecurity, depleted forage, Human Disease emergence of Hepatitis B Mogotio 4 Inadequate water Water quality challenges, Human Disease emergence of Hepatitis B(Maji Moto), Depleted forage Baringo 5 Depleted forage, Inadequate water Water Central quality challenges. Eldama Ravine 6 Depleted pasture, Inadequate water Water quality challenges. 6.2: Ongoing Interventions 6.2.1: Food Interventions Home Grown School Feeding programmes covering 72832 pupils in 336 primary schools as follows 67, 71, 34,49 and 115 schools in Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo South Marigat and Tiaty sub counties respectively. 6.2.2: Non-Food Interventions Table 15: on-going Non-food Interventions Creation of Increased All 2.3 M 5,000 2015-2019 National productive food Wards Government assets by productio and County households- n at Government Especially household of Baringo, Farm ponds level, Developmen reduced t partners poverty levels and conserved environm ent in areas Post-Harvest Reduced All 8.5 2000 2018-2020 County Practices(In Post Wards Millio Government puts supply harvest n and losses construction especially of stores in on cereal North and Eldama Ravine Soil Fertility Increased All 0.6 M 400 2017-2019 Baringo management farm Wards County productivi Government ty and - Agriculture increased Nutrition Increased All 0.4 M 3,000 2017-2019 Baringo and Food household Wards County Utilization food Government initiatives nutrition - Agriculture Livestock IMMEDIATE Disease Reduced BCentral 5,700 Sheep control incidence (Blue (Vaccination s of tongue) s and vector livestock 3M Dec-Feb control) diseases BSouth (for all 2,000 2018 to (Blue targete MOALF, increased BCG tongue) d livestock Mogotio areas) -- prices and (CCPPP hence better 5,912 term of BNorth Shoats trade BSouth (SGP) 2,896 Cattle BSouth 30,000 (Vector Shoats Control suppress Disease To All sub 50,000 100,000 Aug 2018- BCG surveillance monitor counties TLUs Feb, 2019 (MOALF) on RVF and disease other incidences diseases for proper interventi MEDIUM AND LONG TERM Capacity Well Baringo 2M Throughou BCG building of Informed North t (MOALF) Farmers(Nor staff and Baringo Partners mal Ext and farmers south Pastoral for best central Field School practices Mogotio Concept) Health and Nutrition Vitamin A To All health Ksh 70,000 Routine MOH Supplementat improve facilities, 1,850,0 households supported by ion the selected 00 UNICEF, Micronutri ECD WVK Zinc To All health Ksh. 32,000 Routine County Supplementat improve facilities 2,000,0 households department of ion the 00 health Micronutri Management To 100 health Ksh. 1,500 Routine County of Acute improvead facilities 20,0000 households department of Malnutrition just the 00 health Surge at 6 (IMAM) Nutrient supported by health status of National facilities the government, in East affected UNICEF, Pokot community WVK and . WFP IYCN To lower All health Ksh. 20,000 Routine County Interventions morbidity facilities 1,000,0 households Department of (EBF and and and 00 Health Timely Intro mortalities communit of hence y units complementa improving ry Foods) food Iron Folate To All health Ksh. 21,000 Routine County Supplementat improve facilities Ksh. households Department of ion among the ANC 2,450,0 Health Pregnant Micronutri 00 supported by Women ent status WVK, of the UNICEF Intensify To detect All health Ksh. 115 ,000 Routine County Nutrition malnutritio facilities 700,000 under-fives department of surveillance. n early and health intervene supported by UNICEF 6.3: Recommended Interventions 6.3.1: Recommended food intervention Table 16: Population in need of Food Assistance SNo. Sub-County Population in need Proposed mode of intervention ( range min max) 1 Tiaty 15-20 CFA 2. Baringo South 10-15 CFA 3. Baringo North 10-15 CFA 4. Mogotio 5-10 CFA 5 Baringo central 1-5 CFA 6 Eldama Ravine 1-5 CFA Table: 17: Recommended non-food Interventions AGRICULTURE Sub Interventi Ward No. of Proposed Require Available Time Count on beneficiari Implementer d Resources Frame y es s Resourc All Inputs All 10000 National Finances Staff 2018- provision Government, (Kshs 10 2022 including County million) capacity building on harvest and safe use of chemicals ALL Enhance 10000 National Finances Staff 2018- asset All Government, (Kshs 2022 creation County 200 Government Million) households especially ponds and water pans for food production ALL Enhance Irrigati 2000 National Finances Staff 2018- irrigated on Government, (Kshs 10 2022 Agriculture scheme County Million) conducting analysis and crops suitability surveys in irrigation schemes ALL Supply All 200 Ministry of Finances Staff, 2019- inputs Schools Education, (200 Availability 2022 especially with Ministry of Million) of well farms drought fenced escaping farms, planting Irrigation, materials fertilizers to Schools and other development institutions partners income generation and food Nutrition ALL Support of ALL 50000 Communicati Kshs 15 Staff 2019- Extension on Million 2022 through companies, digifarm platform Projects Development monitoring , effective service delivery, marketing and market Linkages WATER All Provision ALL 60 County 10.8M Improved June of PVC Institutions Government, roof 2019 tanks Ministry of structures of10,000 and water and lts technical irrigation, Capacity to backstoppin learning g Institutions and Health Centres Tiaty, Mechanize Tiaty, 45,000 County 72M Land March- Baring d desilting Baringo House Government, technical May o and North, holds NGOs expertise 2019 North, expansion South, Baring of 24No. Mogoti o Critical o South, water pans Mogoti while dry ADesign and All 55,000 County 1.5B Land 201920 ll Sub Constructi Government, technical 20 Counti on of NGOs expertise es Multi- purpose All Sub Water All Institutions County 35 M Human March Counti trucking Government, resource 2019 es and Water NGOs treatment Chemicals All Sub Provide ALL 2300 14.4M Water March Counti fueldiesel households County infrastructu 2019 e subsidy to ral facilities Government,