NOVEMBER 2022 1. Drought Situation Overview The drought situation remained critical in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties during the month of November 2022. The reported rains in pocket areas of the ASALs are yet to reverse the current drought situation. The situation may slightly improve especially on environmental indicators. This is attributable to four failed rain seasons coupled with delayed onset of the OND 2022 rains in most parts of the ASALs. The impact of sustained drought situation has seen the number of people requiring humanitarian assistance stand at 4.35 million. Risks of Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification Acute malnutrition continue to be reported in ASAL counties where 942,000 cases of children aged 6-59 months and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished continue to access treatment. 1.1 Drought phase classification During the reporting month, only the county of Laikipia slightly improved to Alert phase leaving Kajiado, Mandera, Garissa, Tana River and Marsabit are in Alarm drought phase. Seven (7) counties including; Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Nyeri, Meru and Laikipia are in the Alert drought phase. The remaining three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in Normal drought phase. 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 November Rainfall Performance Analysis of the November 2022 monthly rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties experienced depressed rainfall including Pastoral North East (PNE), South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA), Coast Marginal Agriculture (CMA) and Pastoral North West (PNW) clusters received 50 of the November long term mean. The PNE counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received less than 50 of the October LTM. However, Garissa and Tana River counties received between 76-100 mm of rainfall. The SEMA counties; Tharaka Nithi Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received Figure 2. November 2022 Rainfall Performance enhanced rainfall with some parts recording between 101-125 mm of rainfall. The CMA counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties received between 50-75 mm of rainfall. The AGP cluster; Baringo and West Pokot did not receive notable rainfall during the month under review, however, Narok county received good rainfall between 76-100mm of rainfall amounts. Figure 2.0. Shows rainfall performance. 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for December The rainfall outlook for the month of December is illustrated in figure 3. Most ASAL counties in the following clusters; PNE, SEMA, AGP and CMA livelihood zones including; Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Meru, Kitui, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Embu and Kajiado are forecasted to received depressed rainfall. Parts of PNE, including Mandera and parts of Wajir and northern eastern parts of Marsabit are forecasted to recieve near average to below rainfall during the month of December. Parts of agropastoral clusters including southern parts of west Pokot and western parts of Baringo Figure 3. December 2022 Rainfall forecast counties are forecasted to recieve near average to below rainfall during the month of december. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for December 1.2 Vegetation condition Generally, the vegetation condition in November 2022 has slightly deteriorated as compared to the previous month of October 2022. Fig 4: VCI values for October 2022 and November VCI 2022 October 2022 November 2022 Figure 4: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) October 2022 and November 2022 The month of November 2022 indicated alarming deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid (ASAL) counties as compared to the previous month of October 2022. The alarming deterioration associated with ongoing poor performance of October-November- December (OND) short rains. Despite the reported rains in pocket areas of the ASAL counties, positive impacts on vegetation rejuvenation is yet to be registered. Two (2) counties including; Isiolo and Kilifi were in Extreme vegetation deficit. The following seven counties (7); Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Samburu, Garissa, Kwale and Taita Taveta are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following eight (8) counties including; Turkana, Tana River, Kajiado, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Makueni and Meru are in Moderate vegetation deficit. The following five (5) counties including; West Pokot, Embu, Nyeri, Lamu and Narok recorded Normal vegetation greenness. Only Baringo County recorded above normal vegetation greenness. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), November 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (2) (8) Isiolo Wajir (Eldas, West) Samburu (East) Isiolo (North) Kilifi (Ganze, Kilifi Magarini, Malindi) Kwale (Kinango) Severe (7) (29) vegetation Mandera, Marsabit, Mandera (Banissa, East, Lafey, North, South, West) Marsabit deficit Wajir, Samburu, (Laisamis, Moyale, North Horr, Saku) Wajir (East, North, South, Garissa, Kwale, Taita Tarbaj) Garissa (Balambala, Daadab, Lagdera, Dujis) Isiolo (South) Taveta Tana River (Bura) Kajiado (Central) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Kitui (Mwingi North) Meru (Igembe North) Nyeri (Township) Kilifi (Kaloleni, South) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Voi) Moderate (8) (36) vegetation Turkana, Tana River, Turkana (North) Samburu (North), Garissa (Fafi, Ijara), Tana River deficit Kajiado, Laikipia, (Galole, Garsen) Kajiado (East, North, South) Laikipia (East, North) Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi West, Kitui Makueni, Meru Rural, Kitui South, Kitui West) Makueni (Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome) Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini), Kilifi (North, Rabai) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga) Lamu (East) Taita Taveta (Taveta, Wundanyi) Narok (East) Normal (5) (24) vegetation West Pokot, Embu, Turkana (Central, East, Loima, South, West) Samburu (West), greenness Nyeri, Lamu, Narok Kajiado (West), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Sigor), Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) Makueni (Kaiti, Makueni, Mbooni) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti) Nyeri (Mathira, Tetu), Kwale (Msambweni), Lamu (West) Narok (North, South) Vegetation (1) (16) greenness Baringo Baringo (Central, Eldama, Mogotio, North, South, Tiaty) Laikipia Above normal (West), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South), Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes) Meru (South Imenti), Nyeri (Othaya), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok West) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties remained poor as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with limited improvement realized compared to the previous month. The current pasture and browse condition would not last for long due to high concentration of livestock in the dry season grazing areas. Pasture deteriorated to poor condition in Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Kwale, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Kieni, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir counties Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, November 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Embu Baringo Isiolo Baringo Isiolo Garissa Kitui Embu Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Garissa Kitui Laikipia Mandera Kajiado Kwale Meru Marsabit Kilifi Makueni Taita Taveta Narok Kwale Mandera Tharaka Nithi Kieni Laikipia Marsabit West Pokot Samburu Meru Narok Lamu Turkana Taita Taveta Kieni Wajir Tana River Samburu Tharaka Nithi Tana River West Pokot Turkana Lamu 1.3.2 Livestock body condition Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions with exception of Taita Taveta County which reported good body condition for cattle only shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, November 2022 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Isiolo Baringo Taita Taveta Isiolo Embu Kajiado Embu Kajiado Kilifi Mandera Garissa Kitui Kwale Marsabit Kilifi Makueni Laikipia Samburu Kitui Mandera Meru Tana River Kwale Marsabit Narok Turkana Laikipia Samburu Nyeri Wajir Makueni Tana River Taita Taveta Meru Turkana Tharaka Nithi Narok Wajir West Pokot Nyeri 1.3.3 Milk production In most of the counties, milk production during the month under review showed a decreasing worsening trend as compared to the previous month of October. The following counties including; Garissa, Kajiado, Mandera, Meru, Nyeri and Tana River recorded an improving trend. Despite reported rains in some parts of the counties, the impacts on vegetation rejuvenation and milk production is yet to be realized. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. No county recorded above LTA. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, November 2022 Milk Baringo Garissa Embu Baringo Embu Kajiado Laikipia Isiolo Production Garissa Mandera Makueni Kilifi Isiolo Meru Marsabit Kitui Kajiado Nyeri Narok Kwale Kilifi Tana River Taita Taveta Samburu Kitui Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kwale Wajir Laikipia Lamu Mandera NB: Turkana had zero readings 1.3.4 Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of November remained stable compared to the previous month owing mainly to the markets functioning fairly. 100 percent of the counties cattle prices were below normal with 7 counties reporting worsening trend. However, Kwale county reported above normal LTA due to increased demand of livestock market as compared to low supply. The following counties including Isiolo, Makueni, Narok, Tana River and Wajir reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, November 2022 Cattle Prices Kwale West Pokot Baringo Tharaka Nithi Baringo Isiolo Tana River Isiolo Samburu Embu Makueni Kilifi Kajiado Mandera Garissa Narok Kitui Kwale Kajiado Tana River Laikipia Kilifi Wajir Makueni Kitui Mandera Laikipia Meru Meru Narok Nyeri Nyeri Taita Taveta Lamu Turkana Samburu West Pokot Garissa 1.3.5 Goat Prices Goat prices in all the ASAL counties were below LTA with a stable and worsening with 48 percent of counties recording below LTA goat prices. Consequently 4 counties are depicting worsening trend due to the deteriorating pasture and browse conditions Table 6.0: Goat Prices, November Table 6.0: Goat prices, November 2022 Goat Kwale Embu Isiolo Embu Kajiado Baringo Samburu Garissa Tharaka Nithi Mandera Kitui Narok Tana River Kajiado Wajir Nyeri Kilifi Isiolo Kilifi Makueni Mandera Tana River Kwale Lamu Laikipia Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Lamu West Pokot Kitui Meru Baringo Garissa Meru Samburu Turkana Makueni 1.4 Crop production Coast Marginal counties: In Kilifi County, few farmers were still harvesting maize, green grams and cowpeas during the month under review. In some areas, in Kwale county, with the onset of the October-November-December season, households engaged in land preparation this month while those who had begun earlier engaging in planting and weeding. South East Marginal Agriculture counties: In Kitui county, land preparation and planting for the season was on-going across the livelihood zones. However, the early-planted crops were in germination stage and in good condition, in parts of the county where early planted crops had withered due to moisture stress, farmers were forced to re-plant. In Makueni county, in both the Mixed farming and marginal mixed farming livelihood zone, majority of the farmers had planted, and crops had germinated, main agricultural activity in most of the farms was weeding, gapping and top-dressing. Cases of crop pests - fall army worm infestation was reported in across most parts of the County. In Tharaka Nithi county: planting and first weeding was ongoing for the OND season crops. About 90 of the farmers have planted considering the OND is the food production season for the County. The crop development stage was at four leaves stage for legumes and knee high for the cereal crops and were of good condition. However, farmers continued to encounter production challenges particularly related to high input prices for herbicides, certified seeds and the fertilizers. 1.4.1 Maize prices In Kwale, Kilifi and Marsabit counties, the price of maize was at a worsening trend in the month under review while the 14 counties were at Stable and six counties exhibited an improving trend as compared to the previous month as demonstrated in Table 7. The current maize prices are above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, November 2022 Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Kwale Baringo Embu Kwale Narok Nyeri Meru Kilifi Garissa Samburu Isiolo Marsabit Kitui Tana River Wajir Isiolo Laikipia Garissa Makueni Kajiado Samburu Kitui Tana River Makueni Tharaka Nithi Mandera Wajir Narok Kilifi Turkana Laikipia Taita Taveta Mandera Tharaka Nithi Nyeri West Pokot Baringo 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 14 counties is currently above the LTA. Arid counties distances to household water access ranged between 3.1 kilometers (km) and 11.2 km with Laikipia recording lowest and Marsabit recording highest distances to household water access. Counties including; Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Lamu, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi showed an improving trend. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, November 2022 Distance Isiolo Baringo Embu Embu Baringo Turkana Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Garissa Kajiado West Pokot Kitui Laikipia Isiolo Kilifi household Kwale Meru Kitui Makueni s to main Makueni Tharaka Nithi Kwale Narok water Mandera West Pokot Laikipia Wajir Marsabit Mandera sources Narok Marsabit Nyeri Meru Samburu Nyeri Tana River Samburu Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River Lamu Tharaka Nithi 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is above the LTA and on a worsening trend except for Baringo, Turkana, Kilifi and West Pokot counties which are at improving trend due to the little showers received in those particular counties. The average trekking distance for livestock in Arid counties ranged between 4.2 km and 30.5 kilometers(km) with West Pokot recording lowest distances and Marsabit highest while the average trekking distance for semi-arid counties ranged between 1.7 km to 10.2 km with Tharaka Nithi recording the lowest and Meru highest. Table 9.0. shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, November 2022 Distance from Lamu West Pokot Embu Embu Wajir West Pokot Baringo Meru Garissa Garissa Narok Turkana livestock Isiolo Narok Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Laikipia Baringo grazing area to Kilifi Kajiado Kajiado Kitui Kilifi main water Kitui Kwale sources Kwale Makueni Laikipia Mandera Makueni Marsabit Mandera Meru Marsabit Nyeri Nyeri Lamu Samburu Samburu Tana River Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi 1.6 Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of a goat and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA) displaying worsening conditions in most counties. Table 10.0: Terms of Trade, November 2022 Terms of Isiolo Baringo Baringo Embu Kwale trade (ToT) Embu Garissa Kajiado Narok Garissa Mandera Kitui Kilifi Kitui Nyeri Makueni Turkana Kwale Laikipia Meru Makueni Samburu Isiolo Mandera Tana River Taita Taveta Meru Marsabit West Pokot Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Lamu Laikipia 1.7 Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. About 61 percent of the ASAL counties recorded above average MUAC values contrary to less than 20 percent when the situation is normal. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), November 2022 Indicator Current Trend Baringo Embu Narok Mandera Embu Tharaka-Nithi Kajiado Garissa Kilifi Narok Kajiado Wajir MUAC Nyeri Kwale Samburu Nyeri Kitui Kwale Kajiado Meru Laikipia Kilifi Meru Samburu Tharaka Nithi West-Pokot Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Lamu Tana River Kwale Wajir West Pokot Laikipia Mandera Makueni Taita Taveta Garissa Tana River Baringo Kitui Isiolo Turkana Turkana Makueni Taita-Taveta Marsabit Lamu 2.0 Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of November 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, seven (7) counties including, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Nyeri, Meru, Lamu and Laikipia are in the Alert drought phase, while three (3) counties including Baringo, Embu and West Pokot remain in the Normal drought phase. Kajiado, Mandera, Garissa, Tana River and Marsabit are in Alarm drought phase. During the month under review, six (6) counties reported an improving trend, two (2) counties recorded a stable trend, while fifteen (15) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, November 2022 Drought Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Embu Baringo, West Pokot Alert Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Makueni, Nyeri Meru, Laikipia Alarm Garissa, Tana River Marsabit Taita Taveta, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Kitui, Kajiado, Mandera Emergency None None None Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Support to livestock off-take (commercialslaughter in situ) Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Provision of water storage. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th November 2022 BARINGO County 72.67 56.99 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded Above Normal vegetation Central 76.34 66.98 greenness however, there was slight decrease in VCI values when compared with the previous month of October. Eldama 71.57 66.98 Mogotio 68.6 54.37 North 74.99 56.93 South 72.23 57.98 Tiaty 72.79 54.52 MANDERA County 18.54 15.64 The county recorded worsened to severe vegetation deficit from moderate Banissa 16.34 17.96 vegetation condition during the last month of November. Mandera South and M East 11.24 10 Mandera West worsened to severe vegetation deficit Lafey 13.55 15.4 M North 18.93 17.84 M South 21.95 11.89 M West 22.31 17.66 TURKANA County 44.32 34.86 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation greenness to moderate T Central 46 42.83 vegetation deficit T. East 52.39 37.27 T. Loima 42.08 36.87 T. North 32.84 26.54 T. South 57.73 41.84 T. West 47.45 35.99 MARSABIT County 15.61 12.5 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the month of Laisaimis 15.79 11.77 October. Saku worsened to severe vegetation deficit form moderate vegetation Moyale 16.08 11.43 greenness. N. Horr 15.14 13.19 Saku 20.23 12.46 WAJIR County 22.81 13.84 The County worsened to severe vegetation deficit from moderate vegetation W East 26.07 14.83 deficit when compared to the previous month of October. W. Eldas 15.91 9.33 W. North 28.24 19.08 W. South 22.22 12.89 W. Tarbaj 28.93 16.9 W West 23.22 9.69 SAMBURU County 10.59 18.7 The county worsened to severe vegetation deficit during the month under S East 30.71 9.31 review from moderate vegetation deficit in the last month of October S. North 49.11 23.26 S. West 23.22 41.47 GARISSA County 23.98 17.59 The county worsened to severe vegetation deficit form moderate vegetation Balambala 17.46 11.49 deficit during the month under review. Daadab 18.42 13.77 Fafi 26.79 21.95 Ijara 34.04 21.71 Lagdera 14.67 10.26 Dujis 27.07 16.67 ISIOLO County 13.98 9.86 The county and tow its sub-counties recorded extreme vegetation deficit during I. North 12.7 9.46 the month under review compared to severe vegetation deficit during the I. South 15.93 10.46 month of October. TANA RIVER County 31.29 20.62 The county and all two of its sub counties recorded moderate vegetation deficit Bura 29.32 17.99 during the month of November. Bura worsened to severe vegetation deficit Galole 30.74 20.22 Garsen 33.32 23.1 KAJIADO County 32.54 26.3 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit. Kajiado central maintained at K. Central 19.58 15.44 severe vegetation deficit during the month of November. K. East 29.98 23.79 K. North 41.84 31.99 K. South 29.76 23.97 K. West 42.99 35.29 LAIKIPIA County 37.63 32.04 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a stability. Laikipia L. East 37.53 31.34 West remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. L. North 25.7 21.64 L. West 60.03 51.85 THARAKA County 37.56 26.19 The county worsened to moderate vegetation deficit. Tharaka subcounty NITHI Chuka 46.28 39.26 worsened to severe vegetation greenness. Maara 49.42 41.89 Tharaka 30.48 16.24 WEST POKOT County 64.25 47.2 The County and three of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness Kacheliba 61.81 40.59 during the month under review which was a decrease when compared with the Kapenguria 73.79 57.72 previous month of October. Pokot South 75 66.9 Sigor 54.3 38.71 EMBU County 50.65 41.19 The county and two its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness Manyatta 52.94 51.3 except manyatta and Runyenjes which recorded above normal vegetation Mbeere North 52.19 38.92 greenness. Mbeere South 46.84 36.31 Runyenjes 58.95 53.21 County 37.97 24.67 The county deteriorates to moderate vegetation deficit during the month under Kitui Central 35.77 25.99 review from normal vegetation greenness in the previous month of October. KITUI Kitui East 37.04 23.54 Mwingi 37.9 22.49 Mwingi North 30.31 19.05 Mwingi West 49.24 34.41 Kitui Rural 33.41 24.26 Kitui South 40.08 26.4 Kitui West 41.33 29.65 County 43.51 33.34 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under Kaiti 49.14 38.34 review compared to normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. MAKUENI Kibwezi East 35.62 26.26 Kibwezi West 38.62 31.82 Kilome 34.94 26.93 Makueni 57.65 43.31 55.01 40.73 Mbooni County 39.11 29.98 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month under Buuri 38.84 36.64 review compared to normal vegetation greenness during the month of October. Central Imenti 53.65 40.6 Igembe 33.26 23.05 Igembe North 21.35 14.55 Igembe South 41.82 25.48 North Imenti 47.13 31.15 South Imenti 63.63 52.4 Tigania East 37.36 26.3 Tigania West 35.86 26.87 NYERI County 46.65 36.65 The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness during the month Kieni 44.44 34.39 of November. Mathira 45.88 35.64 Mukurweini 44.96 28.22 Othaya 59.03 55.09 Tetu 54.59 47.22 Township 32.31 12.72 County 18.21 7.36 The vegetation condition in the county worsened to extreme vegetation deficit KILIFI Ganze 12.15 2.48 during the month of November from severe vegetation deficit. Kaloleni 22.87 13.62 Magarini 17.92 6.21 Malindi 14.86 8.2 Kilifi-North 26.07 20.44 Rabai 36.33 21.37 Kilifi-South 40.29 18.14 KWALE County 30.07 17.33 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation greenness to severe Kinango 20.98 9.15 vegetation deficit from moderate vegetation deficit from normal vegetation Lungalunga 42.06 24.56 greenness during the month of November. Matuga 41.65 32.65 Msambweni 51.44 40.92 LAMU County 49.71 37.41 The County and one of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness Lamu East 43.79 31.76 which was a worsening trend when compared to the previous month of October. Lamu West 53.14 40.68 County 27.65 17.95 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit which TAITA TAVETA Mwatate 21.25 11.83 was a decrease when compared to the previous month of October. Taveta 30.13 21.01 Voi 27.76 17.94 Wundanyi 35.83 23.79 County 53 48.29 Narok-East 37.57 34.05 NAROK There a deterioration in vegetation cover in the county to moderate vegetation Emurua Dikirr 78.88 69.31 deficit during the month of November. Kilgoris 69.62 64.44 Narok-North 37.97 43.32 Narok-South 40.68 36.78 Narok-West 68.62 58.21 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery. Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle.