November 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance for October 2021 During the month of October 2021, most parts of the ASALs experienced dry weather conditions except the West Pokot, Southern Turkana, Baringo, Samburu, Narok and Laikipia, and Narok Counties received rainfall that was near to above average for the month of September (76- 125mm). The start of the seasonal rains (onset) has not yet been realized over several places. Most meteorological stations in the counties including; Marsabit, Mandera, Isiolo, Garissa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Kitui and Makueni recorded monthly rainfall totals of less than 75 percent of their October 2 monthly LTMs. Trace amounts of rainfall Figure 1. October Rainfall Performance 5.0mm were observed in Marsabit, Wajir and Makueni. Rainfall Forecast for November 2021 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for November 2021 indicates West Pokot, Baringo, Laikipia, Narok, Kajiado, Meru, Nyeri, Embu, Tharaka Nithi western parts of Kitui and Makueni are likely to experience near-average rainfall for the month. The South-Eastern Lowlands (Makueni, Kitui and Taita Taveta), Northeastern (Marsabit, Isiolo, Wajir, Garissa, Mandera and Turkana counties) and the Coastal Strip (Kwale, Lamu, Tana River and Kilifi counties) are likely to experience near to below average rainfall as shown in Figure 2. The Figure 1. November Rainfall forecast November 2021 rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed, both in time and space over most parts of the country. Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in October 2020 with that in October 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of October 2020 attributed to poor performance of the previous season. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), October 2020 and October 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) October 2020 October 2021 As at the end of October 2021, counties experiencing moderate vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included; Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu. The five counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in October 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the five counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of October 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Kilifi (Malindi) recorded Extreme vegetation deficit, Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Rabai) recorded the low VCI values with the five (5) sub counties currently falling in the severe deficit band which is attributed to the ongoing worsening drought situation in greater span of ASAL. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of October 2021. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), October 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (1) Kilifi (Malindi) Severe (5) vegetation Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Kilifi North, Kilifi South, Rabai) deficit Moderate (5) (21) vegetation Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township, Lagdera, Dadaab) deficit Kwale, Lamu Isiolo (Isiolo North, Isiolo South) Kilifi (Magarini) Kitui (Mwingi North) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni, Kinango) Lamu (Lamu West) Marsabit (Laisaimis) Samburu (Samburu East) Tana River (Bura) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Wajir (Wajir South, Wajir West) Normal (10) (37) vegetation Embu, Kitui, Laikipia, Embu (Mbeere North, Mbeere South) greenness Mandera, Marsabit, Kajiado (Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-North) Kitui (Mwingi Meru, Samburu, Tana Central, Kitui East, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural) Laikipia River, Tharaka Nithi, (Laikipia East, Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu East) Mandera (Banissa, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera West) Marsabit (Moyale, North Horr) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe North, Tigania East, Tigania west, Igembe Central, Igembe South) Narok (Narok-East, Narok North) Nyeri (Kieni, Township) Samburu (Samburu North) Tana River (Galole, Garsen) Turkana(Turkana East, Turkana North) Wajir (Wajir East, Tarbaj, Eldas) Vegetation (8) (49) greenness Baringo, Kajiado, Baringo (Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine, Mogotio, Above normal Makueni, Narok, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty) Embu (Manyatta, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Runyenjes) Kajiado (Kajiado-West, Kajiado East, Kajiado Turkana, West Pokot South) Kitui (Kitui Central, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia West) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi West, Kibwezi East, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Saku) Meru (North Imenti, South Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Mukurweini, Mathira, Othaya, Tetu) Samburu (Samburu West) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana West, Turkana South) Wajir (Wajir North) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor conditions except in West Pokot that reported good pasture condition due to the minimal OND rainfall showers, and Baringo and Narok displaying fair conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are on worsening trend as compared to the previous month as result of poor performance of the previous long rains season and NO rains experienced in OND that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse across ASAL counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, October 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Embu Baringo West Pokot Embu Baringo West Pokot Garissa Narok Garissa Laikipia Isiolo Turkana Isiolo Narok Kajiado Kajiado Kilifi Kilifi Kitui Kitui Kwale Kwale Laikipia Lamu Lamu Makueni Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Meru Meru Nyeri Nyeri Samburu Samburu Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tana River Tana River Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Wajir Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 long rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse coupled with late onset of the current short rains season of 2021. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, October 2021 Cattle Goats Embu Baringo West Pokot Garissa Baringo Narok Garissa Kilifi Isiolo Embu West Pokot Isiolo Kitui Mandera Kajiado Kajiado Kwale Marsabit Kilifi Laikipia Makueni Nyeri Kitui Lamu Meru Samburu Kwale Mandera Narok Tana River Laikipia Marsabit Taita Taveta Wajir Lamu Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Makueni Samburu Turkana Meru Tana River Taita Taveta Wajir Tharaka Nithi Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening and stable trend as compared to the previous month of September. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season and persistent dry period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, October 2021 Milk Laikipia Narok Baringo Meru Baringo Embu Production Makueni Tharaka Embu Garissa Kilifi West Pokot Nithi Garissa Isiolo Kitui Isiolo Kajiado Kwale Kajiado Lamu Laikipia Kilifi Makueni Mandera Kitui Nyeri Marsabit Kwale Taita Narok Lamu Taveta Samburu Mandera Tana River Tharaka Marsabit West Nithi Meru Pokot Wajir Taita Taveta Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices are worsening as compared to the last month of September. These includes; Embu, Kilifi, Kitui, Laikipia, Marsabit, Tana River and Turkana owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is poor as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, Baringo, Lamu, Meru, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot reported above normal LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, October 2021 Cattle Baringo Garissa Embu Baringo Embu Prices Lamu Isiolo Kilifi Garissa Kilifi Meru Kajiado Laikipia Isiolo Kitui Tana-River Kitui Makueni Kajiado Laikipia Tharaka- Narok Mandera Makueni Lamu Nithi Taita- Marsabit Mandera Marsabit West- Taveta Nyeri Meru Samburu Pokot Samburu Narok Taita-Taveta Wajir Nyeri Tana-River Turkana West-Pokot Tharaka- Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of October, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Garrisa,Turkana, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir and Nyeri counties.The goat prices trend are mostly stable but on worsening trend as compared to the previous month of September. Improvement is noted in Baringo, Makueni county due to stable body condition. Table 6.0: Goat prices, October 2021 Goat Kajiado Baringo Garissa Baringo Embu Kilifi Prices Kilifi Embu Lamu Makueni Garissa Kitui Kitui Isiolo Mandera Isiolo Kwale Kwale Makueni Marsabit Kajiado Marsabit Laikipia Meru Nyeri Laikipia Meru Narok Taita- Samburu Lamu Narok Tana-River Taveta Wajir Mandera Nyeri Tharaka- Turkana Samburu Tana-River Nithi Taita- Tharaka-Nithi West- Taveta Wajir Pokot West- Livestock Mortality During the reporting period the following 10(ten) counties including Mandera,Garissa ,Wajir ,Wajir ,Marsabit,isiolo,Tana river,Samburu,Laikipia and Turkana reported cases of livestock death as per table 7.0.The situation has worsened as compared to the previous month and thus need for quick response and close monitoring. Table 7.0.Livestock mortality County Livestock deaths reported Mandera Reported livestock deaths Garissa Reported cases of livestock deaths Wajir Reported cases of livestock deaths Marsabit Deaths reported Isiolo Reported cases of livestock deaths Tana river Reported cases of livestock deaths Samburu Reported cases of livestock deaths Laikipia Reported cases of livestock deaths Kilifi Reported cases of livestock deaths Kwale Reported cases of livestock deaths Lamu Livestock deaths reported March to May (MAM) long rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas which resulted to poor crop production in counties like Kitui, Makueni, Nyeri, Kilifi and Kwale however land preparation was ongoing in Taita Taveta County. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize remained stable in October as compared to the previous month of September as demonstrated in Table 8, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to poor crop production that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 8.0: Maize prices, October 2021 Above LTA Atclose to LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Embu Kilifi Nyeri Baringo Kitui Prices Garissa Kitui Makueni West Pokot Embu Lamu Isiolo Kwale Meru Garissa Marsabit Kajiado Lamu Isiolo Tana Laikipia Narok Kajiado River Mandera Nyeri Kilifi Marsabit Samburu Kwale Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Laikipia Wajir Tana River Makueni Turkana West Pokot Mandera WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 19 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is major increase in distance to household water source. The increase in average distances to water points for households is due to the depletion of the water availability due to the minimal rains and continued dryness. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor performance of MAM season is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 9. Table 9.0: Distance from households to main water sources, October 2021. Distance Baringo Kitui Makueni Garissa Baringo Kilifi from Embu West Pokot Tharaka Samburu Embu Kwale households Garissa Nithi Tana River Isiolo Laikipia to main Isiolo Tharaka Kajiado Lamu water Kajiado Nithi Kitui Makueni sources Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Kwale Nyeri Meru Laikipia West Narok Lamu Pokot Taita Mandera Taveta Marsabit Wajir Meru Turkana Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 10.0. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties. 87 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties pointing to worsening trend as shown in table 10.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, October 2021 Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance Baringo West Kitui Kitui Baringo Kilifi from Embu Pokot Wajir Samburu Embu Marsabit livestock Garissa Garissa Meru grazing area Isiolo Isiolo Narok to main Kajiado Kajiado Nyeri water Kilifi Kwale Taita Taveta sources Kwale Laikipia Tana River Laikipia Lamu Wajir Lamu Makueni Turkana Mandera Tharaka Nithi Marsabit West Pokot River Terms of trade Table 11 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties ToT values are below and at the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is at a declining trend as its displaying worsening conditions in most counties. The worsening trend is as result of decreasing goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable and on increasing trend among ASALs Table 11.0: Terms of trade, October 2021 Terms of Garissa Kajiado Baringo Baringo Embu Isiolo trade Kilifi Kitui Embu Makueni Garissa Kajiado (ToT) Makueni Tana-River Isiolo West- Laikipia Kilifi West- Kwale Pokot Nyeri (Kieni) Kitui Pokot Laikipia Samburu Kwale Lamu Lamu Mandera Mandera Marsabit Marsabit Meru-North Meru-North Narok Narok Nyeri (Kieni) Taita-Taveta Samburu Tana-River Taita-Taveta Tharaka- Tharaka- Nithi Nithi Turkana Health and nutrition Table 12 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. In comparison to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has worsened in most counties. Garissa, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni and Taita-Taveta have MUAC above long term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the five counties was attributed to the continued reduction in milk consumption due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services as result of covid pandemic. Isiolo, Kajiado, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Wajir and West-Pokot counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 12.0 that requires close monitoring. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), October 2021 Garissa Baringo Isiolo Baringo Embu Isiolo Kitui Embu Kajiado Kitui Garissa Kajiado MUAC Lamu Kilifi Kwale Lamu Kilifi Kwale Makueni Laikipia Mandera Makueni Laikipia Mandera Taita- Meru Marsabit Samburu Meru Marsabit Taveta Narok Taita- Nyeri Narok Turkana Nyeri Taveta Tana-River Wajir Samburu Tharaka- West- Tana-River Nithi Pokot Tharaka- West- Drought phase classification Table 13 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of October 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, ten (10) counties; Kwale, Embu, Laikipia, Kajiado, Makueni, Meru North, Narok, Nyeri Kieni, Samburu and Tharaka Nithi are in the alert drought phase; Three (3) counties including; Baringo, West-Pokot and Taita-Taveta are in Normal drought phase whereas ten(10) counties including Kitui, Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Lamu, Mandera, Marsabit, Tana-River,Turkana and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported to the improving trend, four (4) counties recorded stable trend while the remaining nineteen (19) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of the ongoing poor performance of 2021 short rains. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, October 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Taita-Taveta West-Pokot Alert Kwale Embu Laikipia Kajiado Meru North Nyeri Kieni Tharaka-Nithi Alarm Kitui Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Marsabit Tana-River Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 24th October 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS UNIT GREENNESS September Octeber month) BARINGO County The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal 66.42 76.48 vegetation greenness in the month of October with an 73.72 88.37 improvement in the VCI values. Eldama 62.20 81.7 Mogotio 67.77 74.09 71.80 79.18 63.95 65.46 Tiaty 64.76 77.42 MANDERA County The county and its sub counties remained stable at Normal 46.67 47.3 vegetation greenness in the month of October while Mandera Banissa 43.65 42.28 South improved from normal greenness to above normal M East vegetation greenness. 43.56 41.19 Lafey 46.29 43.11 M North 49.12 48.75 M South 48.24 52.5 M West 45.55 48.77 TURKANA County There is stability in VCI for the county as five of its sub counties 48.51 54.82 recorded Above Normal and normal vegetation greenness in the T Central 72.33 65.27 month of September. The county and Turkana South improved T. East from normal to above normal vegetation greenness. 38.62 49.96 T. Loima 52.88 65.39 T. North 41.79 45.51 T. South 46.86 53.94 T. West 53.43 60.15 MARSABIT County The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable at normal 36.38 35.55 vegetation greenness except for Laisamis which remained stable Laisaimis 32.29 32.14 at moderate vegetation deficit while Saku improved from normal to above normal greenness. Moyale 36.59 37.51 N. Horr 37.98 36.14 48.17 50.8 WAJIR County The County and one of its sub counties improved from moderate 33.02 37.21 vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Wajir East and W East 37.07 40.89 Tarbaj remained stable at normal vegetation greenness while Wajir South and West remained stable at moderate vegetation W. Eldas 33.6 36.15 deficit. Wajir North improved from normal to above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. W. North 46.72 52.62 W. South 25.34 28.44 W. Tarbaj 43.6 49.26 W West 23.68 28.92 SAMBURU County The County and one of its sub counties improved from moderate 30.93 40.96 vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Samburu East S East 25.44 33.41 remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while Samburu West improved from normal to Above normal greenness. S. North 33.36 46.33 S. West 45.04 53.33 ADMINISTRATIVE DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS 28th as at 24th (3-month) September October 50 Vegetation greenness above 2021 2021 normal GARISSA County The county and all its Sub counties remained stable at Moderate 28.73 32.7 vegetation deficit band during the month under review with an Balambala 28.38 29.98 improvement in the VCI values. Daadab 26.73 32.74 30.93 34.97 Ijara 29.12 32.67 Lagdera 25.15 29.01 Dujis 29.79 32.33 ISIOLO County There was stability in the entire countys vegetation condition at 27.95 29.57 moderate vegetation deficit in comparison to the previous month I. North 28.29 30.22 of September with an improving trend in the VCI values. I. South 27.44 28.58 TANA County The county and two of its sub counties noted a stable trend at 38.4 37.83 RIVER normal vegetation greenness in the month of October. Bura Bura 36.12 34.62 deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. Galole 36.96 36.7 Garsen 41.24 41.27 KAJIADO County The County and all its sub counties remained stable at above 55.02 56.18 normal and normal vegetation greenness during the month of 42.55 46.2 October. K. Central 53.79 56.05 K. East 42.6 41.66 K. North 56.98 56.15 K. South 61.28 62.23 K. West LAIKIPIA County The County remained stable at normal vegetation greenness in 40 48.17 comparison to the previous month. Laikipia West remained 34.7 38.42 stable at above normal vegetation greenness while East and L. East North improved from moderate deficit to normal vegetation 31.25 40.23 L. North greenness. 58.94 67.72 L. West THARAKA County The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month under 45 41.35 NITHI review. Chulga and Maara remained stable at above normal 55.7 53.19 vegetation greenness while Tharaka deteriorated from normal Chulga greenness to moderate vegetation deficit when compared to the 52.51 52.64 previous month of September. Maara 38.56 33.27 WEST County The vegetation greenness was above normal for the all the sub- 62.75 74.49 POKOT counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison the 58.06 70.6 previous month with improving VCI values. Kacheliba Kapenguri 68.61 82.26 73.31 81.87 60.09 70.67 Sigor EMBU County The county and two of its sub-counties remained stable during the 47.41 47.86 month of October with Normal vegetation greenness. Manyatta 55.59 56.56 and Runyenjes sub-counties remained stable at above normal Manyatta vegetation greenness with improving VCI values. 48.87 47.22 41.71 42.65 Runyenjes 56.17 59.02 COUNTY Sub VCI-3 VCI-3 Colou VCI Drought Category County month as month r values County The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness in the 48.05 46.65 month under review. Kitui central, South and West remained Kitui 62.82 63.71 stable at Above normal vegetation greenness while Mwingi Central, West and Kitui Rural remained stable at normal 53.31 49.34 Kitui East vegetation greenness. Kitui East deteriorated from above normal Mwingi greenness to normal vegetation greenness. 38.74 37.92 KITUI Central 28.9 27.94 41.12 46.72 35.83 37.53 Kitui Rural 56.11 53.47 Kitui South 51.15 57.19 Kitui West County The county and all its sub counties recorded above normal 60.5 62.1 vegetation greenness conditions which is a stable trend with an 72.81 82.18 improving trend for almost all of the VCI values when compared Kaiti to the previous month. 57.26 56.8 58.77 59.22 67.07 70.2 MAKUENI Kilome 53.64 54.69 Mbooni 72.01 77.14 County The vegetation greenness remained stable at normal vegetation 46.51 45.72 greenness across the county and eight of its Sub-counties. North 47.66 49.06 Imenti remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness Buuri during the month under review. 46.95 43.88 48.94 46.4 40.31 42.36 47.91 41.06 MERU South 55.16 50.49 47.38 51.71 44.07 41.75 48.02 47.18 County The county and three of its sub counties remained stable at above 52.37 53.4 normal vegetation greenness. Kieni deteriorated from above 52.33 49.21 normal to normal vegetation greenness while Mathira improved Kieni from normal to above normal vegetation greenness. Tetu 49.7 54.66 remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. Mathira Mukurwein 63.03 61.37 NYERI 51.56 60.5 52.62 64.48 Othaya 49.62 49.24 County The vegetation condition noted across the county was stable at 23.08 21.24 KILIFI moderate vegetation deficit and most of its sub counties recording 18.56 16.14 Moderate and severe vegetation deficit. Kilifi North and South Ganze deteriorated from moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation 18.63 15.74 Kaloleni deficit while Malindi deteriorated from severe to extreme 25.68 25.89 vegetation deficit during the month under review. Magarini 13.41 8.98 Malindi 26.65 18.6 18.28 11.26 Rabai 29.46 16.95 The county and all its sub-counties remained stable at moderate 23.68 22.88 vegetation deficit when compared to the previous month of 21.24 20.89 September. Kinango Lungalung 25.84 22.99 KWALE a 27.71 28.03 Matuga Msambwen 32.09 32.98 County The County remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit with 28.8 27.85 a decreasing trend in values. Lamu East remained stable at 47.13 41.36 normal vegetation greenness while Lamu West improved from LAMU Lamu East severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit in 18.2 20.03 Lamu West comparison to previous month. VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS County The County and its sub-counties remained stable at above normal 56.6 54.63 TAITA vegetation greenness with most of the VCI values showing a TAVETA 56.5 54.25 decreasing trend in the month under review. Mwatate 59.48 60.43 54.19 51.06 Wundanyi 71.06 69.16 54.6 56.02 47.91 44.86 Emurua There was stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, 68.62 80.6 Dikirr in the County and four of its sub- counties. The VCI value for Narok East sub-county also remained stable at normal greenness 57.32 66.96 Kilgoris with a decreasing trend. Narok North deteriorated from above Narok- normal to normal vegetation greenness in the month under NAROK 54.71 49.79 North review. 56.6 54.12 53.35 58.8 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification