February 2022 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance Review of January 2022 Rainfall Performance Sunny and dry weather conditions prevailed over most parts of the country for most of the month. However, during the third week, moderate to heavy rainfall was experienced over several parts of the ASAL counties. Isolated storms were recorded during this period over a few areas in Northeastern. For instance, Buna rainfall station in Wajir County recorded 107.0mm of rainfall on 17th January, while Marsabit Meteorological station and Gurar rainfall station in Wajir recorded 89.8mm and 58.7mm Figure 1. January Rainfall performance respectively on the same day. Several meteorological stations recorded rainfall that was below 75 of their January-long term averages (depressed rainfall). Lodwar meteorological station recorded 720.5 of its monthly LTM. Rainfall Forecast for February 2021 According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), the rainfall forecast for February 2022 indicates that; most parts of the ASAL counties will experience generally sunny and dry conditions throughout the month. North-western Region (Turkana, West Pokot, and Samburu): Sunny and dry conditions are expected to prevail in these areas. Maximum temperatures are expected to range from 30C - 40C. North-eastern Region (Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, Mandera and Marsabit): These areas are likely to experience sunny and dry conditions. Maximum temperatures are Figure 1. February Rainfall forecast expected to range from 26C - 40C. The Coastal Strip (Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, and Kwale): These areas are likely to experience generally dry conditions throughout the month. However, a few areas over the south coast are likely to experience light rainfall during the month. Maximum temperatures are expected to range from 31C - 35C. Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in January 2021 with that in January 2022. When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably worse and is attributed to poor performance of the rains. January 2021 January 2022 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of January 2022 showed alarming deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of December 2021.The deteriorating trend was due to below average SONOND short rains. The following 2 sub counties; Wajir (Eldas, Wajir West)) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in dire need of humanitarian assistance. The following three (3) including; Isiolo, Wajir and Marsabit is in Severe vegetation deficit. The following Nine (9) counties including; Baringo, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Mandera, Narok, Samburu, Turkana and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and response plans. The following Four (4) counties including; Garissa, Kajiado, Lamu and Taita Taveta recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following Seven (7) counties including; Embu, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi, recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in January 2022 has badly deteriorated as compared to the same period the previous year, January 2021 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of December 2021 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), January 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (2) Eldas, Wajir-West Severe (3) (18) vegetation Isiolo Mogotio, Lagdera, Isiolo North, Rabai, Lungalunga, Matuga deficit Marsabit Msambweni, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera South, Laisamis, North Horr, Samburu-East, Turkana North, Wajir- East, Wajir-North, Wajir-South, Tarbaj Moderate (9) (31) vegetation Baringo Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty, Balambala, Daadab, deficit Kilifi Isiolo South, Kajiado-Central, Kajiado-West, Ganze, Kwale Kaloleni, Malindi, Kilifi-North, Kilifi-South, Kinango, Laikipia Mandera Laikipia-North, Laikipia-West, Banissa, Mandera North, Narok Mandera West, Moyale, Saku, Narok-East, Narok-South, Samburu Narok-West, Samburu-North, Samburu-West, Turkana East, Turkana South, Turkana West, Kacheliba, Sigor Normal (4) (23) vegetation Garissa, Kajiado, Baringo Central, Kajiado-North, Kajiado-South, Magarini, greenness Lamu, Taita- Kitui-Central, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Kitui-Rural, Laikipia-East, Lamu East, Lamu West, Igembe North, Igembe South, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Mwatate, Taveta, Voi, Bura, Tharaka, Turkana Central, Loima, Kapenguria Vegetation (7) (38) greenness Eldama Ravine, Manyatta, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Above Embu Runyenjes, Fafi, Ijara, Township, Kajiado-East, Kitui East, normal Kitui Mwingi West, Kitui South, Kitui West, Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kibwezi West, Kilome, Makueni, Mbooni, Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Central, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West, Emurua Dikirr, Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township, Wundanyi, Galole, Garsen, Chuka, Maara, West-Pokot South Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions except in Embu, Kilifi and Makueni which reported good conditions. Tana River, Meru and Kitui reported good browse conditions and fair conditions of pasture. This is due to the minimal trace OND rainfall showers, as shown in Table 2. The current browse condition is on a stable trend as compared to the previous month whereas the pasture conditions are deteriorating as result of poor performance of the previous long rains season and little rains experienced in OND that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture, and slight regeneration of browse across ASAL counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, January 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Garissa Embu Baringo Garissa Embu Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Kwale Kitui Makueni Mandera Kwale Kitui Mandera Laikipia Marsabit Laikipia Makueni Marsabit Lamu Samburu Lamu Tana River Samburu Meru Wajir Narok Meru Turkana Narok Nyeri Wajir Nyeri Taita Taveta West Pokot Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is on a declining trend as compared to previous month. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor with exception of Taita-Taveta and West Pokot which reported good body conditions. Most of the pastoral counties reported poor body conditions for cattle as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor temporal and spatial performance of the 2021 short rains season that resulted to poor regeneration of pasture and browse. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, January 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Embu Taita Taveta Baringo Embu Taita Taveta Isiolo Garissa Kwale Isiolo West Pokot Kwale Kajiado Mandera Garissa Laikipia Kilifi Marsabit Kajiado Mandera Kitui Turkana Kilifi Marsabit Lamu Wajir Kitui Samburu Makueni Laikipia Turkana Meru Lamu Wajir Narok Makueni Nyeri Meru Tana River Narok Tharaka Nithi Nyeri West Pokot Samburu Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 short rains season and persistent dry spell period being experienced. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, January 2022 Milk Makueni Garissa Baringo Garissa Lamu Baringo Production Tana River Narok Embu Kilifi Marsabit Embu Samburu Taita Taveta Isiolo Kitui Taita Taveta Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Laikipia Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Narok Kwale Kitui Nyeri Makueni Lamu Samburu Mandera Kwale Tana River Meru Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Turkana Mandera West Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of January are stable compared to the previous month. Declining trend in cattle prices were noted in Baringo, Isiolo, Narok, Marsabit, West Pokot and Narok owing mainly to the poor body condition as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, Tana River, West Pokot, Isiolo, Nyeri, Kajiado and Tharaka Nithi reported above normal LTA as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, January 2022 Cattle Isiolo Embu Garissa Garissa Embu Baringo Prices Kajiado Baringo Kilifi Kajiado Meru Isiolo Tana River Lamu Laikipia Kitui Nyeri Narok Nyeri Kitui Mandera Kilifi Samburu Marsabit Tharaka-Nithi Makueni Marsabit Lamu Taita-Taveta West- West-Pokot Taita- Meru Laikipia Tana River Pokot Taveta Narok Makueni Turkana Samburu Mandera Wajir Turkana Tharaka- Wajir Nithi Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly below LTA except in Narok, Embu and West Pokot counties. The goat prices are stable and on an Improving trend as compared to the previous month of December due to the minimal rainfall showers which enabled regeneration of browse. Table 6.0: Goat prices January 2022 Goat Embu Laikipia Baringo Garissa Baringo Embu Prices Narok Makueni Garissa Isiolo Lamu Tharaka- West Pokot Samburu Isiolo Kajiado Mandera Nithi Taita-Taveta Kajiado Kilifi Makueni Wajir Tharaka- Kilifi Kwale Marsabit West Pokot Nithi Kitui Kitui Turkana Kwale Laikipia Taita Taveta Lamu Narok Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Meru Meru Samburu Tana- Tana River River Livestock Mortality Livestock mortality was reported in some counties like Baringo, Narok, Samburu, Mandera and Marsabit and it was majorly as a result of starvation and diseases. In Turkana County the mortalities were due to hypothermia which was also a case in Marsabit. Narok reported an upward trend of livestock death resulting from predation. October to November (OND) short rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas which resulted to poor crop production in counties like Kitui, Kilifi and Meru however land preparation was ongoing in Taita Taveta, Embu, Makueni, Nyeri as a result of the shadow downpour experienced. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops and drought resistant crops. Maize prices In most counties, the price of maize were at a stable and worsening trend in January as compared to the previous month of December. The few counties reporting improving trend is due to relief aid and imports from neighbouring countiescountry as demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are above or close to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, January 2022 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Garissa Lamu Garissa Embu Baringo Prices Embu Kajiado Kajiado Isiolo Kilifi Isiolo Kilifi Lamu Kwale Kitui Kitui Kwale Wajir Laikipia Meru Laikipia Narok Makueni Samburu Makueni Nyeri Mandera Tana River Mandera Tana River Marsabit West Pokot Marsabit Turkana Narok Meru Nyeri Samburu Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Turkana WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 15 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is stability and increase in distance to household water source. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor rainfall performance is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, January 2022 Distance Baringo Garissa Isiolo Kwale Garissa Baringo from Embu Kajiado Kitui Laikipia Isiolo Embu households Kilifi Lamu Lamu Kajiado Kilifi to main Kwale Tana River Narok Meru Kitui water Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Taita Taveta Makueni sources Makueni Wajir Turkana Tana River Mandera Mandera Wajir Marsabit Marsabit Samburu Meru Tharaka Nithi Narok West Pokot Taita Taveta Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is improving across most of the counties. 52 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at stable and improving trend as shown in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, January 2022 Distance from Baringo Isiolo Garissa Garissa Baringo Kajiado livestock Embu Kajiado Kilifi Isiolo Embu Mandera grazing area to Kwale Meru Kitui Kilifi Kitui Marsabit main water Laikipia Lamu Kwale Meru Samburu sources Mandera Makueni Laikipia Taita Taveta West Pokot Marsabit Samburu Lamu Tharaka Narok Tana River Makueni Nithi Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Narok Wajir Taita Taveta Nyeri Turkana Tana River Wajir Turkana Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is at a stable trend at as it is displaying improving and stable conditions in most counties. The stable trend is as result of stable goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable trend among ASALs. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, January 2022 Terms of Kajiado Embu Baringo Garissa Baringo Mandera trade Narok Kwale Garissa Isiolo Embu Tana-River (ToT) Samburu Tana-River Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi Tharaka-Nithi Kilifi Laikipia Kitui West-Pokot Kitui Lamu Makueni Laikipia Kwale Marsabit Lamu Meru Narok Makueni Wajir Nyeri Mandera Samburu Marsabit Taita-Taveta Meru Turkana Taita-Taveta Tharaka-Nithi Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The trend of MUAC has equally improved and deteriorated in the counties as compared to the previous month. Baringo, Mandera, Marsabit, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu, Taita- Taveta and Tana River have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the eight counties was mostly attributed to the continued minimal milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Baringo, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Narok, Samburu, Turkana and West Pokot counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka-Nithi and Wajir counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), January 2022 Baringo Garissa Isiolo Garissa Kilifi Baringo Mandera Embu Kajiado Embu Kwale Isiolo MUAC Marsabit Kilifi Kwale Isiolo Laikipia Kajiado Narok Kitui Makueni Makueni Lamu Kitui Nyeri Laikipia Meru Mandera Nyeri Narok Samburu Lamu Tharaka-Nithi Meru Taita-Taveta Samburu Taita-taveta Turkana Tharaka-Nithi Tana River Turkana Tana River Wajir Wajir West Pokot Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of January 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (13) counties; Kitui, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni), Taita-Taveta, Garissa, Baringo, Kajiado, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Narok, Samburu and West- Pokot are in the alert drought phase two (3) counties; Embu, Makueni and Tana-River are in in the normal drought phase, whereas Kilifi, Turkana, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, and Wajir are at an alarm phase, while Tharaka-Nithi is in the recovery phase. During the month under review, seven (7) counties reported an improving trend, three (5) counties recorded stable trend while ten (11) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as result of no rains during this season. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, January 2022 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Tana-River Makueni Alert Kitui Garissa Baringo Meru-North Laikipia Kajiado Nyeri (Kieni) Kwale Taita-Taveta Lamu Narok Alarm Kilifi Turkana Isiolo Mandera Recovery Tharaka-Nithi Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th January 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS UNIT GREENNESS BARINGO County The entire county and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate 52.34 28.64 vegetation deficit which was a decline from the previous month. 74.64 45.13 Eldama remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. Eldama Mogotio recorded severe vegetation deficit while Central Baringo 76.47 54.24 deteriorated from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Mogotio 41.92 16.5 56.36 29.96 41.44 22.95 Tiaty 49.37 25.74 MANDERA County The county and three of its sub counties recorded moderate 24.19 20.88 vegetation deficit during the month under review. Mandera East Banissa 33.79 31.87 and South remained stable at severe vegetation deficit while Lafey M East deteriorated from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. 16.68 12.47 Lafey 20.25 16.9 M North 28.36 26.33 M South 19.65 14.98 M West 24.12 20.29 TURKANA County The county and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate 42.89 27.3 T Central vegetation deficit which was a decline as compared to the previous 49.32 40.03 month of December. Turkana Central remained stable at normal T. East 39.02 24.18 vegetation greenness while north deteriorated from moderate to T. Loima severe vegetation deficit. 63.88 41.05 T. North 30.1 17.37 T. South 46.63 32.21 T. West 44.31 26.06 MARSABIT County The county and two of its sub-counties recorded a severe 17.32 13.74 vegetation deficit during the month of January which is a Laisaimis 16.48 11.28 deteriorating trend as compared to the previous month. Saku remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit while Moyale Moyale 17.1 21.15 improved from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. N. Horr 17.45 12.81 24.63 21.79 WAJIR County The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and extreme 12.73 13.94 vegetation deficit during the month under review with most W East 13.26 11.01 remaining stable. Wajir north deteriorated from moderate to severe W. Eldas 12.12 9.51 W. North 21.21 18.45 W. South 9.03 15.84 W. Tarbaj 16.47 12.06 W West 8.74 9.72 SAMBURU County The county and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate 29.05 20.49 vegetation deficit during the month under review with a S East 18.92 16.71 deteriorating trend. Samburu East remained stable at severe S. North 37 23.29 S. West 42.99 26.29 GARISSA County The county and all its sub-counties improved in the vegetation 17.45 40.85 condition during the month under review. Balambala 11.21 22.67 Daadab 16.77 31.64 19.11 55.52 Ijara 25.11 52.87 Lagdera 9.09 10.05 Dujis 13.53 60.52 ISIOLO County The county and one of its sub-counties remained stable at severe 10.28 17.03 vegetation deficit. Isiolo South improved from extreme to I. North 11.04 11.25 moderate vegetation deficit. I. South 9.11 25.86 TANA County The county and two of its sub-counties recorded above normal 19.14 51.33 RIVER vegetation greenness. Bura improved from severe vegetation Bura 15.44 41.13 deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Galole 18.98 56.21 Garsen 22.38 56.93 KAJIADO County The County and three of its sub-counties recorded above normal 34.79 35.54 and normal vegetation greenness. Kajiado Central remained stable 28.29 26.68 at moderate vegetation deficit while West deteriorated from K. Central normal greenness to moderate vegetation deficit during the month 34.14 51.84 of January. K. East 51.04 44.74 K. North 32.45 44.83 K. South 40.25 25.78 K. West LAIKIPIA County The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate 35.35 25.04 vegetation deficit. Laikipia East remained stable at normal 47.64 48.55 vegetation greenness. L. East 29.45 21.05 L. North 40.47 21.16 L. West THARAKA County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal and 29.54 55.95 NITHI normal vegetation greenness during the month under review which 45.75 66.75 was an improvement compared to the previous month. Chulga 62.5 75.63 Maara 12.9 45.59 Tharaka WEST County The County and two of its sub-counties recorded moderate 56.91 31.63 POKOT vegetation deficit during the month under review which was a 50.44 24.93 decline from the previous month. Pokot South remained stable at Kacheliba above normal vegetation greenness while Kapenguria deteriorated 64.23 37.89 from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. Kapenguria Pokot 77.55 53.54 50.31 25.58 Sigor EMBU County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal 48.57 70.08 vegetation greenness during the month under review which a stable 63.82 79.3 and improving trend. Manyatta 44.07 67.44 41.94 66.72 Runyenjes 66.38 78.22 ADMINISTRATIVE COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month month values County The county and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal and 19.03 54.79 22.93 47.3 was an improvement from the previous month. KITUI Kitui Central 16.15 56.65 Kitui East 8.31 46.75 8.48 48.95 21.01 52.98 10.17 42.64 Kitui Rural 26.99 60.12 Kitui South 23.75 53.83 Kitui West County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal 29.99 56.52 vegetation greenness during the month under review which was an 43.03 60.49 improvement. Kaiti 26.21 55.24 32.14 58.73 34.42 56.86 MAKUENI Kilome 24.66 54.56 Mbooni 33.5 55.92 County The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal and 41.62 57.06 54.5 60.13 was stable and improvement for most sub-counties. Buuri 54.5 76.93 Imenti 25.58 51.27 22.92 42.04 12.83 49.91 MERU South 61.77 66.12 North Imenti 68.16 74.16 South Imenti 42.23 53.05 Tigania East Tigania 45.74 63.32 County 52.15 52.64 The county and almost all of its sub counties remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness. Tetu and Kieni improved from 47.27 51.41 normal to above normal vegetation greenness during the month Kieni 50.57 50.62 Mathira 60.55 62.69 Mukurweini NYERI 65.67 55.37 66.17 54.8 Othaya 43.1 50.37 County The vegetation condition in the county and five of its sub-counties 2.15 32.84 was at moderate vegetation deficit during the month under review -0.31 33.51 which was improvement from extreme vegetation deficit. Ganze Magarini improved from extreme to normal greenness while Rabai 1.68 27.37 improved from extreme to severe vegetation deficit. Kaloleni 4.67 35.6 Magarini -4.45 27.5 KILIFI Malindi 5.02 25.24 Kilifi-North -5.27 18.44 Rabai Kilifi-South -14.22 20.01 The county and all its sub-counties improved from extreme 3.85 22.41 vegetation deficit to moderate and severe vegetation deficit during 5.32 24.06 the month under review. Kinango 4.99 19.96 KWALE Lungalunga 1.05 19.44 Matuga -12.21 19.44 Msambweni County The County and its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation 13.47 42.8 greenness which was an improvement from severe vegetation 18.81 45.25 deficit. LAMU Lamu East 10.38 41.38 Lamu West County The County and all of its sub-counties recorded normal and above 22.22 42.58 normal vegetation greenness which was an improvement as 20.78 37.28 compared to the previous month of December. TAITA Mwatate TAVETA 26.39 36.11 19.71 45.46 Wundanyi 35.97 58.65 46.9 32.89 33.63 23.48 Narok-East Emurua 75.03 63.06 There was a decline in vegetation cover as the county and three of Dikirr its sub-counties deteriorated from normal greenness to moderate Kilgoris 68.29 49.79 vegetation deficit. Emurua Dikirr remained stable at above normal Narok- greenness during the month under review with decline in VCI NAROK North 49.13 41.3 values. 40.32 28.09 45.44 27.18 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Figure 3.0: Drought Phase Classification