JUNE 2022 Overview The drought situation continued to worsen in nineteen (19) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the poor performance of the 2021 short rains coupled with previous two failed consecutive seasons and early cessation of the 2022 long rains season. The number of people in need of assistance has increased from 3.5 million in May to 4.1 million in June 2022. Six (6) counties namely Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo and Samburu are in Alarm drought phase while thirteen (13) counties including Kilifi, Turkana, West-Pokot, Kwale, Meru (North), Embu (Mbeere), Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Nyeri (Kieni), Taita-Taveta, Tharaka-Nithi and Tana-River are in Alert drought phase. The remaining four (4) counties including Baringo, Lamu, Narok and Makueni are in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 942,000 cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment. Drought indicators Rainfall Performance The month of May marked the cessation of the Long Rains season over most parts of the Country. In May 2022, several parts of the country experienced dry weather conditions except over the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, Central and South Rift Valley, Coastal region, and a few areas over Northeast and the Highlands East of the Rift Valley that experienced occasional rainfall. Analysis of May 2022 monthly rainfall from 1st to 29th indicates that most parts of the country experienced below-average rainfall Figure 1. May 2022 Rainfall performance except Wajir which experienced above- average rainfall at 129 for two days. Narok and Lamu experienced near average rainfall at 89.4 and 84.4 respectively. All the other stations recorded less than 75 of their May LTM (average) rainfall. The rainfall was characterized by isolated storms over parts of the country. On 1st May, Diff station in Wajir, Sericho in Isiolo and Kaibos in West Pokot recorded 68.0mm, 64.0mm, and 50.1mm respectively. Rainfall Forecast for June 2022 The forecast indicates that several parts of the country will be generally dry and sunny during the month of June 2022. However, near to above-average rainfall is expected over parts of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley and Central Rift Valley, while the Lake Victoria Basin and South Rift Valley is likely to receive near average rainfall. The Coastal strip is likely to experience near-average rainfall tending to below-average (depressed) rainfall. Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo) and Southeastern lowlands (Machakos, Makueni, Figure 1. June 2022 Rainfall forecast Kitui, Taita Taveta and parts of Kajiado) are likely to remain generally sunny and dry. However, high terrain areas in some counties in southeastern Kenya are likely to have chilly and foggy conditions on occasion. Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in May 2021 with that in May 2022. Generally, when compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation deteriorating. May 2021 May 2022 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Condition (VCI) The month of May 2022 showed deterioration in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of April 2022.The deterioration is associated with the poor performance of the long rains of 2022. The following 3 sub counties; Garissa (Lagdera), Kilifi (Kaloleni) and Mandera (Mandera East) are in Extreme vegetation deficit band hence in need of humanitarian assistance. The following Seven counties (7); Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Marsabit, Samburu and Wajir are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following eight (8) counties including; Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Taita Taveta, Tana-River and West Pokot are in Moderate vegetation deficit hence close monitoring and activation of response plans. The following Five (5) counties including; Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Tharaka-Nithi and Turkana recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following three (3) counties including; Embu, Nyeri and Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition is worse as compared to the same period the previous year, May 2021 as shown in (Figure 3). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of April 2022 is provided in Annex 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table 1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2022 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (3) Garissa (Lagdera), Kilifi (Kaloleni), Mandera (Mandera-East) Severe (7) (25) vegetation Isiolo Garissa (Balambala, Daadab, Township), Isiolo (Isiolo-North, Isiolo-South), Kilifi deficit Kilifi (Ganze, Kilifi-North, Rabai, Kilifi-South), Kwale (Kinango, Lungalunga), Laikipia Kwale (Laikipia-North, Laikipia-West), Marsabit (Lafey, Laisamis, North Horr, Saku), Meru (Igembe-North), Samburu (Samburu-East, Samburu-North, Samburu-West), Wajir (Eldas, Wajir-South, Wajir-West), West Pokot (Sigor) Moderate (8) (41) vegetation Baringo Baringo(Baringo Central, Baringo North, Baringo South, Tiaty, Mogotio), Garissa deficit Garissa (Fafi), Kajiado (Kajiado Central, Kajiado East Kajiado South), Kilifi (Magarini, Kajiado Malindi),Kitui(Kitui East, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North, Kitui Rural, Kitui South), Kwale (Matuga, Msambweni), Laikipia(Laikipia-East), Makueni (Kibwezi-East, Kibwezi-West), Mandera (Banissa, Mandera-North, Mandera-South, Mandera- West), Marsabit (Moyale), Meru (Buuri), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi., Wundanyi),Tana River(Bura, Galole, Garsen), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana (Turkana-East), Wajir (Wajir-East, Wajir-North,Tarbaj), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria) Normal (5) (20) vegetation Lamu Baringo (Eldama Ravine), Garissa (Ijara), Kajiado (Kajiado-North, Kajiado-West), greenness Makueni Meru Kitui (Kitui-Central, Mwingi-West, Kitui-West), Lamu (Lamu-East, Lamu-West), Tharaka-Nithi Makueni (Makueni), Meru (Igembe-Central, Tigania-East, Tigania-West), Nyeri Turkana (Kieni), Turkana (Turkana-Central, Loima, Turkana-North, Turkana-South, Turkana-West), West Pokot (West Pokot-South) Vegetation (3) (24) greenness Embu Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere-North, Mbeere-South, Runyenjes), Makueni (Kaiti, Above normal Narok Kilome, Mbooni), Meru (Central Imenti, Igembe-South, North-Imenti, South Nyeri Imenti), Narok (Narok-East, Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok-South, Narok-West), Nyeri (Mathira, Mukurweini, Othaya, Tetu, Township), Tharaka Nithi (Chuka, Maara) Livestock production Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to poor conditions as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with slight improvement recorded as compared to the previous month due to minimal showers of rains received during the May onset which led to little regeneration of pasture and browse. The condition would not last for long due to high concentration of livestock in the grazing areas. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, May 2022 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Baringo Lamu Isiolo Baringo Lamu Isiolo Embu Mandera Embu Makueni Laikipia Kajiado Marsabit Garissa Mandera Kilifi Nyeri Kajiado Marsabit Kitui Wajir Kilifi Nyeri Kwale Kitui Wajir Makueni Kwale Meru Laikipia Narok Meru Samburu Narok Taita Taveta Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Turkana Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition displayed no major improvement as compared to previous month. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties reported livestock body condition as fair to poor conditions with exception of Makueni which reported good body condition while three counties (Kajiado, Lamu and West Pokot) reported good body conditions for the goat species as shown in Table 3. The fair to poor condition is as result of the poor performance of the 2021 short rains season and the minimal down pours of the MAM long rains season resulting to little or no regeneration of pasture and browse that has direct impact on livestock body condition. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, May 2022 Cattle Goats Baringo Embu Makueni Baringo Embu Kajiado Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Garissa Lamu Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Kilifi Makueni Laikipia Kitui Marsabit Kitui West Pokot Mandera Kwale Kwale Marsabit Lamu Laikipia Nyeri Meru North Meru North Samburu Narok Narok Wajir Taita taveta Nyeri Tana River Samburu Tharaka Nithi Taita taveta Turkana Tana River West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Milk production Milk production was on a stable trend as compared to the previous month in most of the counties. The below normal milk production is attributed to the poor rainfall performance for the previous OND rains season, the late onset and minimal showers during this month of May and persistent dry spell being experienced across the ASAL region. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, May 2022 Milk Garissa Narok Baringo Baringo Makueni Garissa Production Makueni Tana River Embu Embu Narok Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Kajiado Samburu Kilifi Kajiado Kitui Turkana Kwale Kilifi Lamu Mandera Marsabit Kitui Nyeri Meru Kwale Tana River Taita Taveta Laikipia Wajir Tharaka Nithi Lamu West Pokot Cattle prices In majority of the counties, cattle prices in the month of May remained stable compared to the previous month owing mainly to the poor body condition as illustrated in Table 5. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However; Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Tana-River, Tharaka Nithi and West- Pokot reported above normal LTA due to increased demand of livestock market as compared to low supply. Eight counties reported an improving trend in prices whereas five counties reported a worsening trend as illustrated in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, May 2022 Cattle Embu Baringo Kilifi Baringo Garissa Embu Kajiado Garissa Kwale Prices Kitui Kajiado Isiolo Kitui Isiolo Mandera Kwale Kilifi Lamu Lamu Marsabit Mandera Makueni Meru Makueni Samburu Marsabit Nyeri Narok Tharaka Nithi Samburu Laikipia Wajir Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River Goat prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were above LTA. The trend was however stable and improving owing to low number of goats available for sell in the market except for Embu, Makueni, Meru, Narok counties which reported a worsening trend. Table 6.0: Goat prices, April 2022 Goat Prices Embu Isiolo Baringo Garissa Baringo Embu Kajiado Taita Taveta Garissa Kwale Isiolo Makueni Kilifi West Pokot Mandera Laikipia Kajiado Meru Kitui Marsabit Mandera Kilifi Narok Kwale Nyeri Marsabit Kitui Laikipia Samburu Tana River Lamu Lamu Turkana Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Makueni Wajir Turkana Samburu Meru Wajir Taita Taveta Narok West Pokot Livestock Mortality Drought conditions have persisted in ASAL counties following failed multiple successive rain seasons. Parts of some counties including Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Isiolo and Mandera have had at least 3 failed rain seasons. This has led to conditions of severe to vegetation deficit coupled with challenged access to water. These have led to increased trekking distances to water points and grazing sites for livestock leading to worsening livestock body condition scores and leading to mortality attributable to drought effects. The livestock mortalities reported in Samburu, Mandera, Isiolo, Lamu, Marsabit and Garissa. There is need to purposely support both commercial and emergency livestock offtake across the ASALs in the face of an elevated level of risk following the failed MAM 2022 season and the forecast poor OND 2022 season prospects. The livestock mortalities reported in Samburu (16.90), Mandera (11.30), Isiolo (8.01), Lamu (7.63), Marsabit (7.4) and Garissa (6.8). The reported livestock mortalities for Wajir County (5.33) are likely to increase as the drought situation assumes a worsening trend. Kajiado, Embu, Kwale, Kitui, Makueni, Narok, Taita Taveta and Tharaka Nithi did not report any livestock mortalities attributable to drought related. The counties of Kilifi, West Pokot, Turkana, Laikipia, Meru, Tana River, Baringo, Nyeri and Meru reported livestock mortalities within county herds ranging from 0.01 in Baringo to 1.5 in Kilifi. In Meru and Nyeri, most mortalities are from immigrant livestock from Isiolo, Marsabit and Wajir Counties. The reported mortalities as updated by the counties as at the end of May 2022 are presented in the following table; Table: Reported Drought Related Livestock Mortalities N County Cattle Mortality SheepGoat Mortality Camel Mortality Overall o. Rate () Populati Deaths Ra Populatio Deaths Rate Populati Deat Rate on (No.) te n (No.) (No.) () on (No.) hs () (No.) () (No.) 1. Samburu 369,399 152,561 41. 1,477,906 112,501 7.61 54,063 967 1.79 16.90 2. Mandera 863,625 138,213 16. 4,579,722 558,752 12.2 1,016,79 32,5 3.1 11.30 0 0 20 3. Isiolo 274,055 19,000 6.9 2,209,532 24,800 1.1 307,011 30 0.01 8.01 4. Lamu 105,054 8,900 8.4 66,420 4,200 6.3 0 0 0 7.63 5. Marsabit 509227 33,105 6.5 4,569,647 580,300 12.7 791,029 23,7 3.0 7.4 6. Garissa 1,322,54 264,508 2.0 4,002,922 120,100 3.0 450,000 9,00 2.0 6.8 7. Wajir 893,040 114,785 12. 5,422,324 102,780 1.89 1,184,08 13,3 1.13 5.33 85 3 89 8. Kilifi 210,513 9,500 4.5 244,242 0 0 37,564 0 0 1.5 9. Nyeri 66,000 33 0.0 180,000 90 0.05 0 123 0.05 0.05 Nyeri 6,000 300 3.0 4,000 120 3.0 0 420 3.0 3.0 10. West 593032 4,621 1 1,214,285 924 0.08 10,500 0 0 0.3 Pokot 11. Turkana 3,143,44 1,332 0.0 13,559,89 29,589 0.22 949,649 185 0.02 0.17 2 4 2 12. Laikipia 68,800 4,500 0.0 211,920 9,800 0.05 0 0 0 0.1 13. Meru 291,156 72 0.0 369429 15 0 4026 0 0 0.1 North 2 14. Tana 475,398 20,825 0.0 1,097,208 33,450 0.03 67,950 546 0.01 0.03 River 4 15. Baringo 518,982 29 0 1,500,453 88 0 13,451 0 0 0.01 16. Kajiado 786,082 0 0 2,425,957 0 0 2,550 0 0 0 17. Embu 151739 0 0 280938 0 0 0 0 0 0 18. Kwale 243,862 0 0 456,221 0 0 0 0 0 0 19. Kitui 324,351 0 0 1,476,390 0 0 0 0 0 0 20. Makueni 251, 385 0 0 982,888 0 0 0 0 0 0 21. Narok 1,488,91 0 0 3,619,387 0 0 0 0 0 0 22. Taita 144,700 0 0 232,300 0 0 2,480 0 0 0 Taveta 23. Tharaka 162,984 0 0 297,634 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nithi TOTALS 13,012,8 772,284 5.9 50,481,61 1,577,50 3.12 4,891,14 80,8 1.65 3.55 92 3 7 9 6 80 Nyeri data on immigrant herds present in the county. A zero means there was no reportage and not necessarily absence of mortalities In the Coast Marginal Agricultural (CMA) counties, the crop condition is poor with most counties reporting withering of crops, with the surviving ones at podding and tussling stage. In the South East Marginal Agriculture (SEMA) counties there are different outputs but majorly its plant growth at knee high stage. In Kwale and Lamu planting and weeding is ongoing same as in Tharaka Nithi. In both SEMA and CMA, season failure has been experienced with less area planted and the lands abandoned or left open for grazing, this is attributed by stressed moisture in May and poor performance of the 2022 long rains season couple with late onset and early cessation and failure of the previous season. Maize prices In all counties, the price of maize was at a stable or worsening trend in April as compared to the previous month, these is as a result of the dry spell experienced in the countries from last year failure of OND rain seasons and the late onset of MAM rain seasons as demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are above LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month due to depletion of stocks that has resulted to increase in maize prices. Table 7.0: Maize prices, May 2022 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Baringo Lamu Garissa Baringo Prices Garissa Kajiado Embu Embu Lamu Isiolo Isiolo Mandera Kilifi Kajiado Nyeri Kitui Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Kwale Kitui Wajir Laikipia Kwale Makueni Laikipia Marsabit Makueni Meru Mandera Narok Marsabit Samburu Narok Tana River Nyeri Turkana Samburu West Pokot WATER ACCESS Access to water for households In comparison to the long-term average, 17 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is decrease and increase in distance to household water source. The poor rainfall performance of long rains is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, May 2022 Distance Embu Kitui Baringo Baringo Kilifi Embu from Garissa Samburu Tharaka Nithi Kitui Meru Garissa households Isiolo Turkana Kwale Isiolo to main Kajiado Lamu Kajiado water Kilifi Mandera Makueni sources Kwale Narok Marsabit Lamu Samburu Nyeri Makueni Turkana Taita Taveta Mandera Wajir Tana River Marsabit West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is worsening across most of the counties. 82 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties being at worsening trend as shown in table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, May 2022 Distance from Embu Wajir Baringo Baringo Isiolo Embu livestock Garissa Lamu Kwale Kitui Garissa grazing area to Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Lamu Marsabit Kajiado main water Kajiado Mandera Meru Kilifi sources Kilifi Narok Tana River Makueni Kitui Turkana Tharaka Nyeri Kwale West Pokot Nithi Samburu Makueni Wajir Taita Taveta Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In most counties, ToT values are below the long- term average (LTA). The TOT is at a worsening trend as it is displaying worsening conditions in most counties. The worsening trend is as a result of stable goat prices while maize prices has increased and thus lowering the purchasing power among pastoralists. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, May 2022 Terms of Kajiado Kilifi Baringo Garissa Lamu Baringo trade (ToT) Lamu Tana River Embu Mandera Nyeri Embu Garissa Marsabit Turkana Isiolo Isiolo Wajir Kajiado Kitui Kilifi Kwale Kitui Makueni Kwale Mandera Makueni Marsabit Meru Meru Narok Narok Samburu Nyeri Taita Taveta Samburu Tana River Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. The trend of MUAC has either improved or deteriorated in a number of counties as compared to the previous month,with most counties recording a stable trend. Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi and Wajir have MUAC above long-term average. The observed above long-term negative trend in malnutrition of the nine counties was mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to decrease in milk production as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices and reduced food intake at household level. Kajiado, Makueni, Meru, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi and Turkana counties reported worsening trend as shown in table 11.0 that requires close monitoring. Garissa, Mandera, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Samburu and Wajir counties recorded an improvement in trend in the month under review. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), May 2022 Baringo Kilifi Embu Garissa Baringo Kajiado Kajiado Taita Taveta Garissa Mandera Embu Makueni MUAC Kitui Isiolo Meru Garissa Tana River Mandera Kwale Narok Isiolo Tharaka- Marsabit Lamu Nyeri Kilifi Nithi Samburu Makueni Samburu Kitui Turkana Tana River Meru Wajir Kwale Tharaka Nithi Narok Lamu Wajir Nyeri Marsabit Turkana Taita-Taveta West-Pokot West Pokot Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of May 2022. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, thirteen (13) counties; Embu, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kajiado, Kwale, Tana River, Taita-Taveta, Meru-North, Nyeri (Kieni), Turkana, Tharaka-Nithi and West-Pokot are in the alert drought phase while four (4) counties; Baringo, Lamu, Narok and Makueni are in the normal drought phase, whereas six (6) counties; Isiolo, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu and Wajir are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, five (5) counties reported an improving trend, Six (6) counties recorded stable trend while twelve (12) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, May 2022 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Narok Makueni Alert Kilifi Kwale Embu (Mbeere) Turkana Meru North Garissa West-Pokot Kajiado Nyeri (Kieni) Tharaka-Nithi Tana-River Alarm Mandera Isiolo Marsabit Laikipia Wajir Samburu Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Support for commercial and emergency livestock offtake Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes. Provision of fast-moving spare parts for strategic high convergence water facilities. Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Support establishment of stabilization centres for acute malnutrition cases Support for mass screening and integrated health outreaches Support for food safety monitroing Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Water trucking to schools for drinking, hygiene and preparation of meals. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Support for cross-border dialogues for access to drought survival resources. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Support for internal sectoral drought risk management coordination. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th May 2022 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS April May 2022 normal 2022 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness BARINGO County 20.18 33.01 The entire county and five of its sub-counties recorded moderate Central 17.26 30.16 vegetation deficit which was stable when compared with the previous Eldama 32.51 40.06 month. Eldama improved from moderate to normal vegetation Mogotio 13.12 27.18 greenness. North 21.2 29.39 South 22.1 34.33 Tiaty 18.86 34.4 MANDERA County 17.01 23.91 The county recorded moderate vegetation condition which is an Banissa 18.93 30.94 improvement from the previous month whereas Mandera East M East 9.11 9.77 Lafey 12.39 16.52 displayed extreme vegetation deficit which is stable as compared to the M North 16.84 26.72 previous month. M South 19.87 25.64 M West 19.1 24.94 TURKANA County 40.7 38.64 The county recorded a decline in vegetation greenness but still remained T Central 76.66 49.7 at normal vegetation condition during the month of May. T. East 28.16 26.37 T. Loima 64.02 42.41 T. North 26.99 36.58 T. South 50.16 36.83 T. West 33.52 44.75 MARSABIT County 18.87 15.4 The county remained stable at severe vegetation condition during the Laisaimis 11.92 11.97 month of May. Moyale 21.49 22.54 N. Horr 21.86 15.54 Saku 23.46 15.13 WAJIR County 14.76 18.62 The County and all of its sub counties recorded severe and moderate W East 13.14 23.64 vegetation deficit during the month under review with majority W. Eldas 15.19 16.95 remaining stable. W. North 20.83 25.38 W. South 12.72 14.46 W. Tarbaj 15.75 25.18 W West 12.27 13.63 SAMBURU County 11.73 14.15 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit S East 8.55 10.96 during the month under review. S. North 14.55 16.86 S. West 14.95 17.84 GARISSA County 31.18 27.31 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the Balambala 20.98 10.69 month under review. Daadab 20.08 19.46 35.88 33.65 Ijara 51.73 47.83 Lagdera 12.3 6.92 Dujis 36.96 18.07 ISIOLO County 17.11 11.57 The county and all its sub-counties recorded severe vegetation deficit I. North 13.99 11.17 during the month under review. Isiolo South deteriorated to severe I. South vegetation deficit. 21.88 12.17 TANA RIVER County 34.8 24.19 The county and all its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation Bura 29.17 20.02 deficit. Garsen sub-county deteriorated from normal to moderate Galole 34.37 22.11 vegetation deficit. Garsen 39.85 29.03 KAJIADO County 36.52 33.08 The County and three of its sub-county recorded moderate vegetation K. Central 36.88 30.86 deficit. Kajiado North and West remained stable at normal vegetation K. East 35.3 31.06 condition K. North 44.06 43.65 K. South 36.34 20.47 K. West 45.64 45.17 LAIKIPIA County 12.46 14.28 The County recorded severe vegetation deficit with a stable trend. L. East 23.48 23.04 Laikipia East was at moderate vegetation deficit and Laikipia North and L. North 9.44 10.29 West is at severe vegetation deficit as of this month. L. West 12.79 17.54 THARAKA County 44.03 42.07 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month NITHI Chuka 57.76 51.2 under review which was a stable trend as compared to the previous Maara 62.83 57.21 month of April. Tharaka 32.85 33.8 WEST POKOT County 25.46 28.47 The County and three of its sub-counties recorded moderate vegetation Kacheliba 26.61 28.38 deficit during the month under review which was stable when compared Kapenguria 26.89 32.59 with the previous month of April. Pokot South remained at normal Pokot South 35.49 39.41 vegetation greenness. Sigor still remained at severe vegetation deficit. Sigor 16.62 18.69 EMBU County 53.51 57.44 The county and all its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation Manyatta 67.43 61.62 greenness during the month under review which a stable trend. 52.17 60.54 47.26 54.31 Runyenjes 64.14 57.38 COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month as month as values at 24th at 30th (3- April May month) 2022 2022 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit County 32.92 27.82 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit during the month of KITUI Kitui Central 43.93 35.98 May with all of its sub-counties displaying a deteriorating and stable trend as compared to the previous month of April. The situation of VCI Kitui East 33.69 25.59 in May has really worsened in the county with a huge margin. Mwingi 34.01 28.74 Central 36.8 34.75 48.27 47.19 Kitui Rural 35.26 32.15 Kitui South 28.39 22.42 Kitui West 36.82 36.43 County 43.48 41.79 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness during the month Kaiti 69.97 71.76 under review which was a stable trend as compared to April. Kibwezi Kibwezi East 37.58 30.9 East and West deteriorated to moderate vegetation deficit. Kibwezi 37.9 33.41 MAKUENI West Kilome 56.02 50.28 Makueni 39.33 46.31 Mbooni 54.18 58.55 County 41.24 38.87 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation Buuri 39.98 34.11 greenness while 4 recorded above normal vegetation greenness during Central the month of May with Igembe North recording severe vegetation 57.32 57.51 Imenti deficit portraying a worsening trend for the county during this month Igembe under review. Buuri deteriorated from normal to moderate vegetation 36.17 37.08 MERU Central deficit during the month under review. 24.45 17.22 44.37 51.57 North Imenti 49.44 50.8 South Imenti 63.71 59.72 Tigania East 38.46 35.9 Tigania West 40.13 36 County 55.86 53.68 The county and all its sub counties remained stable at above normal NYERI Kieni 51.21 45.06 vegetation greenness except Kieni which recorded normal vegetation Mathira 60.07 60.91 greenness. Mukurweini improved from normal to above normal Mukurweini 46.43 65.84 vegetation greenness. Town 52.54 69.52 Othaya 71.36 65.69 Tetu 65.94 57.78 County 24.49 17.53 The vegetation condition in the county and four of its sub-counties was KILIFI Ganze 19.68 11.49 at severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. Rabai and Kaloleni 10.07 9.65 Kilifi South improved from extreme vegetation deficit to severe Magarini 31.77 21.56 vegetation deficit. Kaloleni deteriorated from severe to extreme Malindi 23.51 20.54 vegetation deficit. Magarini and Malindi remained stable at moderate Kilifi-North 14.1 12.61 vegetation deficit. Rabai 3.85 12.71 Kilifi-South 8.35 14.48 KWALE County 18.55 17.15 The county and all of its sub-counties recorded stability in vegetation Kinango 18.33 13.12 condition during the month under review which was a worsening trend. Lungalunga 15.51 17.2 The county recorded a severe vegetation deficit. Matuga 23.29 30..54 Msambweni 23.67 30.76 LAMU County 51.17 44.1 The County and its sub-counties recorded normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 49.86 45.93 Lamu West declined from above normal to normal vegetation Lamu West 51.92 43.05 greenness. TAITA County 36.4 23.95 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was a decline TAVETA Mwatate 50.68 27.32 as compared to the previous month of April. Taveta 35.86 28.53 Voi 32.23 20.61 Wundanyi 39.42 29.15 County 67.25 60.23 Narok-East 55.45 57.47 NAROK Emurua 71.79 67.34 Dikirr There was stability in vegetation cover as the county and all of its sub- Kilgoris 73.39 61.53 counties recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. Narok-North 51.19 50.72 Narok-South 71.59 64.32 Narok-West 72.81 61.3 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle.