MAY 2023 1. Drought Situation Overview The ongoing March-April-May (MAM) rainfall season occasioned a positive impact on livelihoods across most parts of Arid and Semi-Arid counties with environmental indicators depicting recovery drought phase situation. Despite the recovery across the ASAL counties, food security situation is yet to improve and the number of people in need of assistance remains at 4.4 million following short rains (SRA) 2022 food security assessment while the risk of Acute malnutrition remains. There is often a lag between recovery from drought and food available across the Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, April 2023 livelihoods. Three counties (3), Wajir, Taita Taveta and Lamu remain in Alert drought phase while Seven (7) counties namely Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Baringo, Garissa and Narok are in Normal drought phase. Thirteen (13) counties including; Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana and Nyeri are in the Recovery drought phase. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification. Conversely, the rains have caused flash floods in most of the Arid counties which has negative impacts on local livelihoods like displacements and destruction of critical facilities like roads thereby hindering movement and commerce. 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 April Rainfall Performance The analysis of the April 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs received good amounts of rainfall. The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa and Pastoral North West counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received rainfall ranging between 101mm to 225mm of rainfall with central Turkana, Central Marsabit and North West Mandera receiving highest amounts of rainfall. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui and the Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot Figure 2. April 2023 Rainfall Performance received average rainfall amounts during the month of April ranging between 50mm to 100mm of rainfall. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did receive good amounts of rainfall with Lamu county recording highest amounts of rainfall of greater than 225 mm as shown figure 2.0. 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for the month of May The rainfall outlook for the month of May is illustrated in figure 3. Most parts of the Arid and Semi Arid lands are forecasted to receive Near-Average to above-average rainfall. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience mainly Near Average rainfall. The AgroPastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia and Baringo are forecasted to experience Near-Average rainfall. The coastal marginal agriculture counties includeing Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties are forecasted to get Near- Average to above average rainfall. Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana Figure 3. May 2023 Rainfall forecast River and Garissa) are forecasted to experience both Near-Average rainfall to above average rainfall while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are are forecated to experience Near-Average rainfall. 1.1.3. Flooding Floods were experienced from March through April 2023 in the following counties including Marsabit, Garissa, Turkana, Tana River, Mandera and Wajir. Wajir County reported that an estimated 7,160 households were affected, out of which 6,325 were displaced. The roads linking various towns and settlements were rendered impassable in the county. The critical roads infrastructure including culverts, murram, bridges and drifts were damaged. Communities reported loss of valuable assets including; livestock, destruction of farms and loss of essential commodities by small scale traders, among others. Mandera indicated that flash floods have affected all the 9 locations in Mandera town leading to destruction of various structures including house, toilets, blocking of culverts, interruption of free movement and displacement of many families within the locations. This has negatively impacted the livelihood of the communities living in the town. A total of 4,172 households were affected and need urgent humanitarian intervention. Flooding in other counties including Tana River, Garissa and Marsabit had minimal impact. 1.2 Vegetation condition Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of April showed slight improvement when compared to that of the month of March 2023. The reported rains are expected to continue to impact positively on vegetation condition. 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse improved in 56 percent of arid and semi-arid counties with all counties recording fair to good pasture and browse conditions as shown in Table 2. However, the current pasture and browse conditions are below normal as compared to normal years with slight improvement realized when compared to the previous month of March. The pasture and browse regeneration continue to be registered in majority of the counties and expected to improve to normal status in the coming weeks with the ongoing March-April-May long rains. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, April 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Kilifi Mandera Embu West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Kajiado Mandera Meru Garissa Meru Marsabit Nyeri Narok Kilifi Narok Samburu Isiolo Nyeri Tana River Taita Taveta Kitui Samburu Tharaka Nithi Wajir Laikipia Taita Taveta Garissa Lamu Tana River Kitui Isiolo Turkana Makueni Wajir Laikipia Kajiado West Pokot Lamu Makueni Baringo Baringo Embu Kwale 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition for cattle was fair at 65 percent and good at 35 percent. The body condition for goats was also fair at 52 percent and good at 48 percent. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year however there is an improvement as compared to the previous month as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, April 2023 Cattle Goats Meru Mandera Meru Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Laikipia Marsabit Samburu Narok Nyeri Kitui Taita Taveta Kitui Samburu Narok Tana River Isiolo Tana River Isiolo Wajir Tharaka Nithi Wajir Garissa Turkana Embu Turkana Taita Taveta West Pokot Lamu West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Baringo Embu Kajiado Kwale Lamu Garissa Kilifi Kajiado Makueni 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month of April showed an improvement in trend as compared to the previous month of March in majority of the counties. However, milk production was below LTA of a normal year in 74 percent of the ASAL counties. Milk production is expected to increase with browse and pasture regeneration. Table 4.0: Milk production, April 2023 Milk Makueni Garissa Baringo Baringo Kitui Production Narok Kwale Embu Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Narok Meru West Pokot Kajiado Samburu Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Kitui Embu Laikipia Garissa Lamu Isiolo Mandera Kwale Marsabit Lamu Nyeri West Pokot Samburu Kilifi Taita Taveta Laikipia Tana River Makueni Turkana Mandera Wajir Taita Taveta Wajir 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in the counties of Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP), Sheep and goat pox and Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and foot and mouth diseases. 1.3.5 Cattle prices In most of the ASAL counties (65 percent), cattle prices were below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. However, an improving trend has been noted in majority of the counties as illustrated in Table 6. The current unstable livestock body condition is attributed to current below normal prices. Table 6.0: Cattle prices, April 2023 Cattle Prices Kwale Embu Baringo Embu Baringo Kwale Lamu Marsabit Garissa Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Tana River Isiolo Laikipia Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Marsabit Lamu West Pokot Kilifi Meru Tana River Kitui Narok West Pokot Laikipia Samburu Narok Wajir Nyeri Garissa Samburu Kitui Taita Taveta Makueni Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Tharaka Nithi 1.3.6 Goat Prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were above normal as a result of improving livestock body condition. Most of the counties recorded Improving trend. The following counties including Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Lamu and Meru were at LTA t While 35 percent of the counties remained in stable trend as shown in table 7.0 below. Table 7.0: Goat prices, April 2023 Goat Embu Garissa Mandera Kajiado Prices Kilifi Kajiado Narok Kilifi Laikipia Kitui Baringo Kitui Makueni Lamu Garissa Laikipia Tana River Meru Isiolo Lamu Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Tana River Wajir Meru Taita Taveta West Pokot West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Wajir Mandera Embu Marsabit Kwale Narok Marsabit Nyeri Samburu 1.4 Crop production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture and south east marginal agriculture clusters. Most of the planted crops germinated and farmers in different agro- ecological zones are engaged in weeding activities. Table 8.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Marginal Kilifi Farmers have their maize crop germinated and few are weeding Agriculture Cow peas were less planted Kwale Land preparation and planting for the season was on-going across the livelihood zones South East Marginal Kitui Crops were at germination to knee highflowering stage and in Agriculture good condition Makueni Crops were in the early vegetative stage. Farmers were weeding and top dressing Tharaka Nithi Farmers were doing first weeding and pest control Crop conditions were good and approaching flowering stage and at knee high 1.4.1 Maize prices In the month under review, Maize prices remained above avarage across ASAL counties due to the depleted stocks, coupled with increased food and essential commodities prices across the country. Three counties namely Samburu, Tana River and Turkana showed an improving trend while Lamu, Makueni, Narok and West Pokot counties were on a worsening trend as shown in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Maize prices, April 2023 Above LTA Atclose to Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Maize Prices Embu Samburu Mandera Lamu Kilifi Tana River Baringo Makueni Laikipia Turkana Garissa Narok Makueni Isiolo West Pokot Tana River Nyeri Wajir Wajir West Pokot Embu Baringo Kwale Isiolo Marsabit Kwale Kajiado Mandera Kilifi Marsabit Kitui Narok Laikipia Nyeri Taita Taveta Samburu Tharaka Nithi Garissa 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households has improved across the ASAL counties. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general improving trend in distance from household to water source. Arid (pastoral) counties distances to household water access ranged between 1.8km and 6.1 km with Isiolo recording lowest and Turkana recording highest distances as compared to the previous month where the lowest was 3.3km and highest 16.3 km. In semi-arid counties, Narok and Meru counties ranged between 1.5km to 7.2km respectively as compared to the previous month where it ranged between 2.4km to 9.7 km. All counties showed an improving trend in household access distances to water sources except for Makueni which was stable. Table 10.0: Distance from households to main water sources, April 2023 Distance Kilifi Kajiado Baringo Baringo Makueni from Kwale Turkana Embu Embu households Makueni West Pokot Marsabit Garissa to main Meru Samburu Isiolo water Nyeri Isiolo Kajiado sources Taita Taveta Laikipia Laikipia Tana River Narok Marsabit Garissa Narok Kitui Nyeri Lamu Wajir Wajir Turkana 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock In comparison with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source has reduced and thus indicating an improving trend. The average trekking distance for livestock for the month under review in Arid counties ranged between 5kms and 9.3km with Isiolo county recording lowest distances and Garissa highest as compared to the previous month where it ranged between 8.7km and 22 km. In the case of semi-arid counties, the distance to water sources for livestock ranged between 2.2 kilometers to 9.6 kilometers with Narok recording the lowest and Meru highest as compared to the previous month where it ranged between 3.2km and 13.3km. Table 11.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, April 2023 Distance from Embu Meru Baringo Embu Kwale Kilifi livestock grazing Kajiado Tana River Garissa Garissa Mandera Kitui area to main Kilifi Wajir Kwale Isiolo Taita Taveta Lamu water sources Laikipia West Pokot Lamu Kajiado Turkana Makueni Makueni Narok Laikipia Samburu Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Tana River Taita Taveta Isiolo Meru Tharaka Nithi Kitui Narok Mandera Nyeri Samburu Wajir Marsabit Baringo 1.6 Terms of trade The trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties was stable across all counties but below LTA due to high maize prices as shown in Table 12. Terms of trade are expected to improve as the season progresses. Table 12.0: Terms of Trade, April 2023 Terms of trade Mandera Baringo West Pokot Embu Nyeri (ToT) Embu Kajiado Garissa Garissa Kitui Kilifi Kitui Laikipia Baringo Kwale Kwale Wajir Makueni Lamu Narok Meru Makueni Turkana Kilifi Taita Taveta Meru Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Samburu Mandera Taita Taveta Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Samburu Wajir Tana River Marsabit Nyeri Narok 1.7. Health and nutrition Table 13 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition. MUAC measurements recorded an improvement across most of the ASAL counties. However, in 17 counties, the MUAC is still above LTA. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Five counties recorded a worsening trend in the month under review while Embu, Kajiado, Kwale, Kitui, Mandera, Nyeri, Narok, Tharaka-Nithi, Wajir and West Pokot recorded an improving trend. On a positive note, only Narok, Kilifi, Laikipia, West-Pokot and Taita Taveta counties that recorded MUAC below the long-term average. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), April 2023 Baringo Garissa Narok Embu Baringo Garissa Nyeri Lamu Kilifi Kajiado Isiolo Kilifi MUAC Kajiado Embu Laikipia Kwale Lamu Laikipia Isiolo Meru West-Pokot Kitui Marsabit Makueni Wajir Marsabit Taita Taveta Mandera Samburu Meru Kwale Nyeri Taita-Taveta Mandera Narok Tana River Tana River Tharaka-Nithi Turkana Makueni Wajir 2.0 Drought phase classification Table 13 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of April 2023. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored, seven (7) counties including Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Baringo, Garissa and Narok are in the Normal drought phase, while three (3) counties; Lamu, Wajir, Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase. Thirteen (13) counties namely; Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana and Nyeri are in Recovery drought phase. During the month under review, majority of the counties have reported an improving trend, five (5) counties recorded a stable trend, while none (0) counties reported a worsening trend. Table 13.0: Drought phase classification, April 2023 Drought status Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot Baringo, Garissa, Narok Alert Lamu, Wajir Taita Taveta Alarm Emergency Recovery Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Nyeri Laikipia, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Turkana Recommendations Food and safety nets Monitoring the recovery phase and supporting food assistance and cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure. Livestock sector Facilitating safe migrations for the pastoralists moving back to their settlements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of water treatment tabs Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof catchment harvest. Investing in strategic water harvesting infrastructure for future lean seasons Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought recovery and resilience building initiatives. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th April 2023 BARINGO County 54.9 56.5 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month of April. Central 83.34 86.15 Mogotio recorded moderate vegetation deficit North 66.27 71.21 South 41.16 41.62 Ravine 98.16 106.69 Mogotio 31.24 29.31 48.98 49.08 Tiaty MANDERA County -18.86 -22.56 The county recorded a stable trend in vegetation condition to extreme vegetation deficit Lafey -24.87 -29.31 in the month of April. North -31.71 -38.54 Banissa -22.63 -28.57 West -13.97 -14.71 South -5.31 -6.99 East -12.89 -15.74 TURKANA County 43 41.29 The county recorded a stable trend in vegetation greenness to normal vegetation East 23.2 18.37 greenness during the month of April. Turkana East and Central worsened to severe South 27.55 22.38 vegetation deficit. Loima 36.34 32.63 Central 27.56 19.39 West 57.65 58.01 North 57.35 60.17 MARSABIT County 10.93 10.63 The county recorded severe vegetation greenness which was stable when compared to Laisamis 12.83 12.3 the last month of March Moyale 2.48 2.11 North Horr 12.06 11.9 Saku 9.9 9.94 WAJIR County 15.8 16.5 The county recorded severe vegetation deficit. Wajir west and Eldas improved to normal Tarbaj 15.41 15.92 vegetation greenness. North 12.86 16.77 South 10.46 5.29 West 32.87 40.61 Eldas 26.57 35.89 East 5.33 SAMBURU County 25.04 20.57 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness during the month of April. East 17.88 11.78 North 29.85 26.22 West 37.76 37.08 GARISSA County 24.02 13.35 The county experienced a worsening trend in vegetation condition index to severe Balambala 14.78 5.97 vegetation deficit during the month of April. Township and Ijara were in above normal Township 63.11 57.38 vegetation greenness. 65.73 Ijara 69.82 Fafi 13.04 -3.98 Lagdera 19.26 20.22 Dadaab 2.75 -13.16 ISIOLO County 17.46 16.42 The county and all of its sub counties were stable at severe vegetation deficit during the North 16.19 16.75 month of April. 15.92 South 19.4 TANA RIVER County 8.39 -2.58 The county and all of its sub counties were stable at extreme vegetation deficit Bura 4.59 -5.61 Galole -4.08 -17.77 Garsen 19.42 9.5 KAJIADO County 46.5 50.68 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to above normal vegetation Central 65.5 81.4 greenness during the month of April East 26.27 20.91 North 86.09 96.15 South 16.98 13.71 West 67.52 75.1 LAIKIPIA County 30.53 28.04 The County remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month of April East 49.88 42.04 North 27.57 27.08 West 26.75 23.06 THARAKA County 79.33 68.17 The county and its sub counties recorded a general stability in vegetation condition to NITHI Chuka 91.07 80.71 above normal vegetation greenness during the month of April. Maara 127.25 124.46 Tharaka 59.59 45.46 WEST POKOT County 51.61 54.75 The county remained stable at above normal vegetation greenness during the month Kacheliba 42.6 46.32 under review. Kapenguria 60.19 60.65 Pokot south 72.23 76.71 Sigor 48.56 52.15 EMBU County 68.11 53.52 The county and two of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness Manyatta 120.12 119.18 during the month of April. Mbeere north 49.11 28.09 Mbeere south 51.91 33.84 Runyenjes 112.98 110.61 County 39.46 27.29 The county worsened in vegetation condition to moderate vegetation greenness up from KITUI Kitui central 66.26 56.63 normal vegetation greenness during the month of April when compared with the previous Kitui east 27.57 12.66 month of March Kitui rural 94.58 89.18 Kitui south 48.14 37.54 Kitui west 73.27 64.42 Mwingi central 16.16 2.28 Mwingi north 31.79 17.86 Mwingi west 23.38 9.68 County 76.45 70.04 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal vegetation MAKUENI Kaiti 100 99.86 greenness during the month under review. Kilome subcounty maintained at moderate Kibwezi east 87 83.18 vegetation deficit. Kibwezi west 59.25 48.85 Kilome 30.76 20.33 Makueni 94.07 89.63 Mbooni 88.88 82.55 County 74.92 69.21 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal vegetation Buuri 87.41 87.93 greenness during the month of April Central Imenti 129.14 133.46 Igembe central 40.92 27.57 Igembe north 23.34 11.35 Igembe south 47 32.13 North Imenti 123.64 128.67 South Imenti 143.2 144.49 Tigania east 65.01 55.59 Tigania west 103.84 101.92 NYERI County 119.36 122.68 The county and all its sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above Kieni 110.55 112.85 normal vegetation greenness condition during the month of April. Mathira 131.31 136.77 Mukurweini 129.91 135.7 Nyeri town 124.17 133.62 Othaya 125.99 127.76 Tetu 135.85 139.16 County 33.76 30.2 The vegetation condition in the county remained the same in moderate vegetation deficit KILIFI Ganze 45 48.25 during the month under review. However, Kilifi north and Malindi sub counties worsened Kaloleni 30.32 41.42 to extreme vegetation deficit. Kilifi north 14.2 0.36 Kilifi south 26.05 27.25 Magarini 33.49 26.44 Malindi 17.32 9.33 Rabai 29.59 35.3 KWALE County 60.45 71.08 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition index during the month of April at Kinango 62.36 75.81 above normal vegetation greenness Lunga Lunga 58.31 67.79 Matuga 58.27 64.43 Msambweni 53.42 47.04 LAMU County 73.28 71.29 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness during Lamu east 70.52 70.76 the month under review Lamu west 74.88 71.59 County 33.49 27.66 The county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month of April. However, TAITA TAVETA Mwatate 16.31 5.16 Mwatate and Taveta sub counties recorded extreme vegetation deficit. Taveta 9.29 -3.58 Voi 49.53 48.35 Wundanyi 23.23 15.57 County 94.93 109.96 NAROK Emurua Dikirr 104.3 104.24 Kilgoris 104.24 112.69 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness condition at above normal Narok east 61.44 66.92 vegetation greenness during the month of April. Narok north 95.17 101.76 Narok south 96.25 115.56 Narok west 102.17 125.25 Table 15.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 4). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle.