September 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance During the month of August 2021, most ASAL counties remained generally dry and rainfall received was below the long term average of August 2021.Most parts of ASAL counties including; Turkana, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit, Tana River, Makueni, Kitui, Kajiado, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Nyeri, Isiolo, Meru North and Taita Taveta received less than 20mm of rainfall totals except the highland areas of rift valley including Baringo, Laikipia , Samburu, Narok and West Pokot which received between 51-100 mm of total rainfall. Figure 1 indicates observed rainfall totals during the month of August 2021. Figure 1.Rainfall performance Rainfall Forecast According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), several parts of the country will generally remain dry and sunny during the month of September 2021.Counties in Northwestern Region including Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu are likely to experience sunny and dry weather conditions throughout the month. However, areas bordering Uganda and Southern Sudan are likely to experience occasional rainfall during the first two weeks of the month. The expected total rainfall amount is likely to be slightly above the long-term average amounts for September. Counties in the Coastal strip including Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale are likely to experience generally dry weather conditions with occasional light morning showers. The expected total rainfall amount is likely to be below the long-term average for the month of Figure 2.Rainfall forecast September. The Highlands East of the Rift Valley counties including Nyeri, Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are likely to experience sunny and dry weather conditions for most of the month. However, occasional afternoon showers and Figure 2.August Rainfall forecast cloudy conditions in the mornings are likely, especially during the first three weeks. The expected total rainfall amount is likely to be near the long-term average for September while North Eastern Kenya and Southeastern Lowlands including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta and parts of Kajiado are likely are likely to experience generally sunny and dry weather conditions throughout the month. Figure 3 matches the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in August 2020 with that in August 2021. When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of August 2020. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2020 and August 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) August Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) August 2020 2021 As at the end of August 2021, counties experiencing vegetation deficit as per Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) included Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Samburu, Tana River and Wajir.The eight counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in August 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the eight counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of August 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai) Kwale (Kinango) Wajir (Wajir-South, Wajir-West) recorded the lowest VCI values with the nine (9) sub counties currently falling in the extreme deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in MAM season 2021 in those particular areas. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of August 2021. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme Severe (9) vegetation Garissa (Lagdera, Daadab) Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, deficit Rabai) Kwale (Kinango) Wajir (Wajir-South, Wajir-West) Moderate (8) (29) vegetation Garissa, Isiolo, Kilifi, Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Ijara, Township) Isiolo (Isiolo North, deficit Kwale, Lamu, Isiolo South) Kajiado (Kajiado Central, Kajiado-North) Kilifi Samburu, Tana River, (Magarini, Kilifi-South) Kitui (Mwingi central, Mwingi North, Mwingi West, Kitui Rural) Kwale (Lungalunga, Matuga, Msambweni) Laikipia (Laikipia North) Lamu (Lamu West) Mandera (Mandera South) Marsabit (Laisaimis, Moyale) Samburu (Samburu east) Tana River (Bura, Galole, Garsen) Wajir (Wajir East, Eldas, Wajir North, Tarbaj) Normal (10) (43) vegetation Embu, Kajiado, Kitui, Embu (Manyata, Mbeere North, Mbeere South, Runyenjes) greenness Laikipia, Mandera, Kajiado (Kajiado-East, Kajiado-South) Kilifi (Kilifi-North) Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Kitui (Kitui East, Kitui South, Kitui West) Laikipia (Laikipia Taita Taveta, Tharaka East) Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Makueni) Mandera Nithi, (Banissa, Mandera East, Lafey, Mandera North, Mandera West) Marsabit (North Horr, Saku) Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe North, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania west) Narok (Narok-East) Nyeri (Mathira, Othaya, Tetu, Township) Samburu (Samburu North, Samburu west) Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Voi) Tharaka Nithi (Maara, Tharaka) Turkana(Turkana East, Turkana North) Vegetation (5) (32) greenness Baringo, Makueni, Baringo (Baringo Central, Mogotio, Baringo North, Baringo Above normal Narok, Turkana, West South, Tiaty) Kajiado (Kajiado-West) Kitui (Kitui Central) Laikipia (Laikipia West) Lamu (Lamu East,) Makueni (Kibwezi West, Kilome, Mbooni) Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe South, North Imenti) Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok-North, Narok South, Narok-West) Nyeri (Kieni, Mukurweini) Taita Taveta (Wundanyi) Tharaka Nithi (Chuka,) Turkana (Turkana Central, Loima, Turkana South, Turkana West) West Pokot (Kacheliba, Kapenguria, West-Pokot South, Sigor) Livestock production The current livestock body condition is stable compared to previous month. However, pasture Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in poor and fair to poor conditions except in Lamu, Narok and West Pokot that reported fair to good pasture condition as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition is deteriorating as compared to the previous month. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Baringo Lamu Garissa Baringo Lamu Isiolo Embu Isiolo Embu Narok Kajiado Marsabit Kilifi Kajiado West Pokot Kilifi Narok Mandera Kitui Taita Taveta Meru Kwale Tana River Nyeri Laikipia West Pokot Tana River Makueni Wajir Taita Taveta Nyeri Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is stable compared to previous month even though pasture Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, August 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Taita Taveta Isiolo Baringo Kajiado Isiolo Embu Wajir Embu Taita Taveta Mandera Kajiado Garissa Tana River Samburu Kilifi Kilifi Turkana Kitui Kitui Wajir Kwale Kwale Laikipia Lamu Lamu Laikipia Makueni Makueni Marsabit Marsabit Meru Mandera Narok Meru Nyeri Narok Tana River Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Samburu West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Milk production Milk production was below average and generally on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, August 2021 Milk Embu Kwale Baringo Baringo Garissa Embu Productio Lamu Taita Garissa Kwale Taita Isiolo n Makueni Taveta Isiolo Mandera Taveta Kajiado Narok Kajiado Marsabit Tana River Kilifi Samburu Kilifi Meru Kitui West Pokot Kitui Samburu Laikipia Laikipia Tharaka Lamu Mandera Nithi Makueni Marsabit West Narok Meru Pokot Nyeri Nyeri Turkana Tana River Wajir Nithi Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable and above LTA owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is still fair as illustrated in Table 5. The prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of August in about 52 percent of the ASAL counties as compared to 60 percent during the previous month as shown in Table 5. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, August 2021 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Baringo Meru Kilifi Baringo Kajiado Prices Isiolo Samburu Mandera Isiolo Kitui Kajiado Laikipia Nyeri Kilifi Lamu Kitui Garissa Marsabit Makueni Samburu Lamu Turkana Mandera Tana River Makueni Embu Meru Wajir Narok Narok Embu Taita Taveta Nyeri Garissa Tana River Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Wajir West Pokot West Pokot Laikipia Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of August, goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Turkana, Meru, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit and Nyeri counties.The goat prices are stable but worsening as compared to the previous month due to deteriorating in livestock body condition. Table 6.0: Goat prices, August 2021 Indicato Current status Trend r Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Goat Kajiado Baringo Meru Lamu Baringo Isiolo Prices Kilifi Isiolo Nyeri Kilifi Kajiado Lamu Kitui Wajir Kitui Meru Laikipia Makueni Turkana Laikipia Tharaka Nithi Narok Mandera Garissa Makueni Wajir Taita Samburu Marsabit Mandera Embu Taveta Embu Narok Garissa Tana River Nyeri Marsabit Tharaka Samburu Nithi Taita Taveta West Pokot Tana River Kwale West Pokot March to May (MAM) long rains season performed poorly in the marginal agricultural areas and thus late planted maize crops were in fair to poor condition with farm army worm infestation in counties like Kilifi while the harvested crops were below average as compared to expected production during normal season in marginal agriculture counties like Nyeri (Kieni), Meru North, Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta and Kwale counties. Farmers are being advised to plant early maturing crops. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in August as compared to the previous month. As demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are aboveclose to LTA and on increasing trend as compared to the previous month.The increase has disadvantaged pastoralists terms of trade and thus need for close monitoring as the season progress especially in Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Marsabit ,Nyeri and Taita taveta counties. Table 7.0: Maize prices, August 2021 Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening to LTA Maize Garissa Baringo Embu Garissa Baringo Nyeri Prices Isiolo Kwale Kilifi Tana River Embu Tharaka Isiolo Kajiado Laikipia Kitui Nithi Kajiado Mandera Lamu Meru Wajir Kilifi Marsabit Makueni Tana River Nyeri Narok Tharaka Taita Taveta Samburu Nithi Laikipia Turkana Wajir Lamu West Makueni Narok Taita Access to water for households In comparison to the long term average, 17 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is major increase in distance to household water source. The increase in average distances to water points for households is due to the depletion of the water availability due to the minimal rains. However, the delayed short rains onset and the poor performance of MAM season is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2021. Distance Baringo Isiolo Baringo Garissa Embu from Embu Kitui Kwale Kilifi Isiolo households Garissa Makueni Kitui Kajiado to main Kajiado Narok Laikipia Mandera water Kilifi Tana River Lamu Meru sources Kwale Tharaka Nithi Makueni Narok Laikipia Marsabit Nyeri Lamu Samburu Taita Mandera Taveta Marsabit Tana River Meru Tharaka Nyeri Nithi Taita Taveta Wajir Turkana West Pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and deteriorating across the counties.80 percent of counties livestock trekking distance to water point is above LTA in ASALs with most counties pointing to worsening trend. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, August 2021 Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance Baringo Kitui Kajiado Baringo Embu from Embu Narok Kilifi Garissa Kajiado livestock Garissa Wajir Tana River Isiolo Kitui grazing area Isiolo West Tharaka Kilifi Kwale to main Kwale Pokot Nithi Laikipia Lamu water Laikipia Meru Makueni sources Lamu Narok Mandera Makueni Tana River Marsabit Mandera Tharaka Nyeri Marsabit Nithi Samburu Meru West Pokot Taita Nyeri Taveta Taita Wajir Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. The ToT maintains a stable trend compared to the previous month however it is on worsening trend as compared to the previous month. The worsening trend is as result of deteriorating livestock body condition in relation to increase in maize price. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, August 2021 Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening LTA LTA Terms of Kajiado Baringo Garissa West-Pokot Baringo Garissa trade (ToT) Kilifi Embu Marsabit Embu Kajiado Lamu Isiolo Meru Isiolo Lamu Makueni Kitui Nyeri Kilifi Mandera Narok Kwale Turkana Kitui Marsabit Tana- Laikipia Kwale Meru River Mandera Laikipia Tana-River Tharaka- Samburu Makueni Tharaka-Nithi Nithi Taita- Narok Wajir Taveta Nyeri Wajir Samburu West- Taita- Pokot Taveta Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. As compared to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has been on a visible worsening trend with the following counties namely; Baringo, Garissa, Narok, Mandera, Tana River, Marsabit, Samburu and Nyeri having MUAC values above long term average. The remaining counties including Isiolo, Kilifi, Lamu, Makueni, Meru North,Taita Taveta, Wajir, Embu, Kwale and Laikipia were close to LTA.The observed above long term negative trend in malnutrition of the eight counties was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2021 Baringo Isiolo Kajiado West Pokot Isiolo Baringo Narok Kilifi Kitui Embu Kilifi Kajiado MUAC Mandera Lamu Tharaka-Nithi Laikipia Kitui Nyeri Makueni West Pokot Lamu Marsabit Samburu Meru Turkana Makueni Mandera Tana River Taita Meru Narok Marsabit Taveta Taita Taveta Nyeri Garissa Wajir Tharaka- Samburu Embu Nithi Tana River Kwale Turkana Laikipia Wajir Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of August 2021. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, twelve (12) counties; Embu (Mbeere), Meru-North, Garissa, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Samburu, Tana-River, and Turkana are in the alert drought phase and thus seven (7) counties including; Baringo, Narok, Tharaka-Nithi, West-Pokot, Kajiado, Nyeri (Kieni), and Taita-Taveta are in Normal drought phase whereas Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo and Mandera are at an alarm phase. During the month under review, none of the counties reported to the improving trend, eight (8) counties recorded stable trend while the remaining fifteen (15) counties reported a worsening trend. The deteriorating display is as poor performance of 2021 long rains season. Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, August 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo Kajiado Narok Nyeri(Kieni) Tharaka-Nithi Taita-Taveta West-Pokot Alert Embu(Mbeere) Kilifi Meru-North Kitui Tana-River Alarm Marsabit Isiolo Wajir Mandera Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th August 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS UNIT GREENNESS as at 26th as at 30th (3- BARINGO County The entire county and its sub counties recorded above normal 54.31 58.42 vegetation greenness in the month of August except Eldama which 60.01 60.94 was at normal greenness. Eldama 52.35 42.28 Ravine Mogotio 45.08 56.2 62.51 65.12 53.82 61.2 Tiaty 53.57 58.54 MANDERA County The county and its sub counties are in Normal vegetation greenness 40.9 39.3 in the month of August which is a stable trend except Mandera Banissa 44.29 40.8 South which worsened to a moderate vegetation deficit. The M East current month VCI trend is similar to the previous month of July. 42.61 39.49 Lafey 41.94 41.53 M North 48.65 44.43 M South 36.1 34.22 M West 34.45 36.45 TURKANA County There is stability in VCI for the county as five of its sub counties 57.8 53.23 recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness in the month of T Central 71.3 78.18 August. Turkana North and East recorded Normal vegetation T. East greenness. 46.86 43.08 T. Loima 72.88 61.9 T. North 44.86 43.38 T. South 68.13 57.39 T. West 62.56 56.15 MARSABIT County The county improved from moderate vegetation deficit to normal 34.64 38.82 vegetation greenness except for Moyale and Laisamis which Laisaimis 29.96 34.31 remained stable at moderate vegetation deficit. Moyale 31.09 34.34 N. Horr 37.72 41.97 42.91 48.44 WAJIR County The situation deteriorated in the county at moderate vegetation 27.22 23.78 deficit. Wajir South and West worsened from moderate vegetation W East 29.27 23.68 deficit to severe vegetation deficit during the month under review. W. Eldas 25.25 28.52 W. North 30.76 34.27 W. South 24.23 16.92 W. Tarbaj 33.86 30.35 W West 24.95 19.36 SAMBURU County Worsening in vegetation from normal vegetation greenness in the 38.69 34.59 previous month of July to Moderate vegetation deficit in the month S East 28.61 26.54 under review. Samburu East remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band. S. North 49.03 41.21 S. West 44.04 44.63 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GARISSA County The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation 25.91 21.16 deficit band with Daadab and Ijara sub-county worsening from Balambala 23.42 21.17 moderate vegetation deficit to severe vegetation deficit band and from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit Daadab 20.85 15.29 respectively. 24.85 21.15 Ijara 43.02 29.44 Lagdera 14.24 17.28 Dujis 23.79 20.41 ISIOLO County There was improvement in the entire countys vegetation condition 18.97 23.09 from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit in I. North 19.76 23.94 comparison to the previous month of July. I. South 17.76 21.79 TANA County The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate vegetation 27.5 29.23 RIVER condition in the month of August. 28.08 28.36 Galole 22.58 25.66 Garsen 30.09 32.21 KAJIADO County Stable trend noted across the county with sub counties with a 47.38 45.68 worsening trend in Kajiado Central sub-county from normal 39.23 32.92 vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit in August. K. Central 43.33 41.26 K. East 45.34 33.6 K. North 44.21 48.55 K. South 56.34 52.74 K. West LAIKIPIA County The sub-counties remained stable in the VCI trend in comparison 38.05 37.62 to the previous months. However, an improvement was noted in 44.73 36.94 Laikipia West whose value shifted from Normal vegetation L. East greenness to Above Normal. 33.18 30.25 L. North 43.95 51.75 L. West THARAKA County The county is in normal vegetation greenness in the month under 57.62 45.25 NITHI review when compared to Above Normal category in the previous 61.51 50.79 month of July. Chulga 60.97 46.02 Maara 55.08 42.92 WEST County The vegetation greenness was above normal for the all the sub- 51.38 53.13 POKOT counties. This was a notable stable trend in comparison the 49.12 50.65 previous month. Kacheliba 51 54.5 Kapenguria 63.51 61.87 48.62 51.31 Sigor EMBU County The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month 46.56 39.61 of August across most of the sub-counties with Normal vegetation 42.51 40.01 greenness. Mbeere North and Runyenjes sub-counties deteriorated Manyatta from above normal to normal vegetation greenness. 53.27 44.86 42.21 35.46 Runyenjes 52.28 42.78 ADMINISTRATIVE COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month month values as at 26h as at 30th (3- County The county and three of its sub counties remained stable at normal 38.38 41.68 vegetation greenness. Kitui central improved from Normal to 46.37 55.31 Above normal vegetation greenness, Kitui Rural from severe to Kitui Central moderate vegetation deficit. However, Mwingi West worsened 40.18 45.7 Kitui East from normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation deficit. 32.78 33.9 KITUI Central 33.77 27.38 35.43 32.64 18.5 27.82 Kitui Rural 41.41 48.56 Kitui South 40.64 41.97 Kitui West County The county and three other of its sub counties recorded above 44.07 50.46 normal vegetation greenness conditions; improved trend compared 37.9 46.63 to July except for Kilome which remained stable Kaiti 43.24 48.01 45.23 51.32 MAKUENI 50.89 56.77 Kilome 39.66 46.16 47.38 57.5 Mbooni County The vegetation greenness is normal across the county and 3 others 51.44 44.27 of its Sub-counties except for Igembe Central, Igembe South and 53.76 44.15 North Imenti which recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Buuri 51.64 41.85 Imenti 60.23 51.11 40.35 38.06 62.33 53.55 MERU South 51.43 52.32 North Imenti 64.16 36.9 South Imenti 34.12 39.66 Tigania East Tigania 47.09 47.26 County The county, Town and Othaya sub-counties worsened from above 58.03 47.7 normal to above normal vegetation greenness when compared with 60.23 52.8 the previous month of July, Kieni, Mathira, and Tetu remained Kieni stable in their VCI values. 49.32 42.09 Mathira 39.8 52.9 Mukurweini NYERI 64.9 37.05 64.44 37.32 Othaya 48.76 45.06 County The vegetation condition noted across the county was stable and 22.7 21.19 KILIFI most of its sub counties recording severe vegetation deficit. Rabai 21.8 17.24 and Kilifi south sub-counties improved from extreme to severe Ganze vegetation deficit and from extreme to moderate vegetation deficit 17.95 15.23 respectively. Kaloleni 22.66 21.53 Magarini 24.84 19.41 Malindi 45.34 39.54 Kilifi-North 2.7 14.39 Rabai Kilifi-South 2.06 26.18 The county recorded moderate vegetation deficit, with Kinango 30.75 21.04 sub-county recording severe vegetation deficit, a deterioration 26.02 16.93 from the previous month of July. Kinango 40.55 28.8 KWALE Lungalunga 31.23 23.56 Matuga 38.99 26.21 Msambweni County The entire county deteriorated from normal vegetation greenness 40.72 32.41 to moderate vegetation deficit yet the 2 sub-counties under 50.82 51.31 review remained stable in comparison to previous month. LAMU Lamu East 34.87 21.47 Lamu West VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT GREENNESS County The County remained stable at normal vegetation greenness. 35.47 43.47 Taveta and Voi sub-counties improved from moderate vegetation 40.58 42.58 deficit to normal vegetation greenness. Mwatate 34.15 41.87 TAITA Taveta TAVETA 32.95 43 Wundanyi 54.1 59.94 59.24 53.99 57.64 49.59 Narok-East Emurua 62.69 64.54 Dikirr There was a stability in Above Normal vegetation greenness band, in7 sub- counties. However, the VCI value for Narok East sub- 51.09 51.75 Kilgoris county showed a decrease trend from above normal to normal NAROK 60.88 54.84 vegetation greenness. 64.38 57.44 58.06 52.66 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification