National Drought Management Authority NATIONAL DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN JUNE 2023 1.0 Drought Situation Overview The Arid and Semi-Arid counties are recording positive impacts of the just-ended March to May rainfall season. Three (3) counties are in drought Recovery phase while 19 are in Normal phase. However, Taita Taveta county remained in Alert drought phase during the month of June 2023. The 19 counties in Normal drought phase include; Makueni, Embu, Lamu, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Samburu, Mandera, Nyeri, Baringo, Kilifi, Tana River, West Pokot, Turkana, Garissa, Kitui, Laikipia, Meru and Narok. Isiolo, Marsabit and Kwale are in Recovery phase. Acute malnutrition has been noted among children below five years and pregnant and lactating women across the counties. The number of people in need of relief assistance stands at 4.4 million as per the findings of the October to December 2022 Short Rains Food Figure 1: Drought Phase Classification - June 2023 Security Assessment released in February. An assessment of the impacts of the March to May 2023 long rains on local livelihoods is ongoing by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG), which brings together Government sectors, UN agencies and non-governmental organisations. The assessment is critical since food securityinsecurity in the country, especially in the 23 ASAL counties, is highly dependent on rainfall. The assessment findings will provide detailed data on the food security situation in the country, which will inform action by the Government and our partners. 1.1 Drought Observed Indicators 1.1.1 June 2023 Rainfall Performance The analysis of the June 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties received low amounts of rainfall ranging between 40mm to 1mm. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received rainfall amounts ranging from 1mm to 5mm. The Pastoral North west counties, including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu, received considerable rainfall ranging between 21mm to 80mm. The Agro-pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerably good rainfall amounts ranging between 21mm to 100mm. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties as well as Figure 2: June 2023 Rainfall Performance the Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties - Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu - received low rainfall amounts ranging between 11mm to 40mm. 1.1.2 Rainfall Outlook for July 2023 Most parts of the ASALs are forecasted to be under generally sunny and ry conditions. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi will experience sunny and dry conditions while the Agro-Pastoral livelihood zones including Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia and Baringo will experience periodic chilly and overcast conditions with light rains alongside sunny and dry conditions. The Coastal Marginal Agriculture counties (Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale) are forecasted to receive near-average rainfall to slightly-above-average rainfall. Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) will experience generally sunny and dry conditions while the forecast for the Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) indicates below normal rainfall to generally sunny and dry Figure 3: July 2023 Rainfall forecast conditions as illustrated in Figure 3. 1.1.3 Flooding In Mandera, farms along River Daua are still wet from the flooding witnessed during the long rains and are yet to be planted. 1.2 Vegetation Condition Figure 4 tracks the progression in vegetation regeneration based on vegetation condition index (VCI) values in May and June 2023. Generally, the vegetation condition in June showed great improvement compared to May. Figure 4: VCI values trends for the months of May and June 2023 The improvement is attributed to the performance of the March to May long rains season, which led to vegetation regeneration in most counties. None of the counties recorded either extreme or severe vegetation deficit. Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, and Taita Taveta counties registered Moderate vegetation deficit, hence require close monitoring. Ten (10) counties including West Pokot, Turkana, Marsabit, Laikipia, Isiolo, Wajir, Garissa, Kitui, Kajiado and Kilifi recorded Normal vegetation greenness while another nine (9) counties - Baringo, Meru, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Narok, Makueni, Lamu and Kwale recorded above normal vegetation greenness. Figure 4 provides a summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of June 2023 while Table 1 shows disaggregation by sub-county. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in June 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (0) (0) Severe (0) (0) vegetation deficit Moderate (4) (24) vegetation Mandera, Samburu, Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, East), Turkana (East, Central), deficit Tana River, Taita Marsabit (Moyal), Wajir (South, East), Samburu (East, North), Taveta Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Daadab), Tana River (Bura, Galole), Kajiado (East, South), Kitui (Mwingi North), Meru (Igembe North), Kilifi (North), Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta, Wundanyi) Normal (10) (38) vegetation Turkana, Marsabit, Baringo (Mogotio), Mandera (West, South), Turkana (south, greenness Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Loima, West, North), Marsabit (Laisamis, North Horr, Saku), Wajir Kajiado, Laikipia, West (Tarbaj, North, Eldas), Samburu (West), Garissa (Township, Pokot, Kitui, Kilifi Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Garsen), Laikipia (East, North, West), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Embu (Mbeere north, Mbeere South),Kitui (East, South, Mwingi central, Mwingi west), Makueni (Kibwezi east, Kilome), Maru (Igembe central, Igembe north), Kilifi (Kilifi south, Magarini, Malindi), Taita Taveta (Voi) Above normal (9) (51) Vegetation Baringo, Tharaka Baringo (central, north, south, ravine, Tiaty), Wajir (west), greenness Nithi, Embu, Makueni, Garissa (Ijara), Kajiado (central, north, west), Tharaka Nithi Meru, Nyeri, Kwale, (Chuka, Maara), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South, Sigor), Lamu, Narok Embu (Manyatta, Runyenjes), Kitui (Central, rural, west), Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi east, Makueni, Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Imenti central, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania East, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, town, Othaya, Tetu), Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Rabai), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga, Msambweni, Matuga), Lamu (East, West), Narok (East, West, North, South, Kilgoris, Emurua Dikirr) 1.3 Livestock Production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse was good condition in 74 of ASAL counties as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse conditions are above normal, which is a great improvement compared to May. The regeneration is attributed to performance of the March to May long rains. Table 2. Pasture and browse condition, June 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi - Tana River Wajir Tana River Wajir Kajiado Samburu Kajiado Samburu Kitui Mandera Narok Mandera Narok Embu Turkana Embu Turkana Baringo Baringo Kilifi Kilifi Lamu Lamu West Pokot West Pokot Isiolo Isiolo Kwale Kwale Garissa Garissa Marsabit Kitui Laikipia Marsabit Meru Laikipia Nyeri Meru Makueni Nyeri 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The body condition of cattle was fair in 35 of ASAL counties and good in 65 while 22 recorded fair body condition of goats and 78 good. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock species is above normal, which is attributable to improvement in vegetation regeneration, compared to similar periods during a normal year. Table 3. Livestock body condition - June 2023 Cattle Goats - Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Makueni Tharaka Nithi Makueni Wajir Samburu Taita Taveta Samburu Mandera Nyeri Wajir Nyeri Embu Tana River Mandera Tana River Baringo Narok Embu West Pokot Kilifi Baringo Garissa Lamu Kilifi Narok Kajiado Lamu Turkana Kajiado Isiolo West Pokot Kitui Isiolo Marsabit Kwale Meru Kitui 1.3.3 Milk production In the majority of counties, there was overall stability and improvement in the trend of milk production in June compared to May. The production is, however, yet to fully stabilise due to decline in tropical livestock units (TLU) and low birth rates attributed to residual effects of livestock mortality experienced during drought. Milk production is expected to increase as the birth rate of small stock increases following improved body condition. The milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties are shown on Table 4. Table 4. Milk production - June 2023 Milk Garissa Kwale Baringo Meru Embu Baringo Production Isiolo Meru Embu Isiolo Marsabit Garissa Laikipia Taita Taveta Kajiado Kilifi Nyeri Kwale Makueni West Pokot Kilifi Mandera Taita Taveta Laikipia Turkana Kitui Kajiado Turkana Narok Lamu Kitui West Pokot Samburu Mandera Lamu Tana River Marsabit Wajir Nyeri Makueni 1.3.4 Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included unconfirmed cases of Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP), Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and foot and mouth (FMD) disease. 1.3.5 Cattle prices A majority of ASAL counties (60) recorded above-average cattle prices, especially Isiolo, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Wajir, Kwale, Narok and Samburu. The current cattle prices are below normal in Kajiado and Taita Taveta counties compared to similar periods during a normal year. Embu and Makueni recorded worsening trends as illustrated in Table 5 as farmers disposed of animals to pay school fees. Table 5: Cattle prices - June 2023 Above Long At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Term Average (LTA) Cattle Kwale Baringo Kajiado Isiolo Baringo Embu Prices Lamu Embu Taita Kajiado Garissa Makueni Garissa Kilifi Taveta Laikipia Kilifi Isiolo Laikipia Marsabit Kitui Mandera Narok Meru Lamu Meru West Wajir Mandera Samburu Pokot Kwale Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Narok Taita Taveta Makueni Samburu Tharaka Nithi Kitui West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices Prices of goats were higher in most of the ASAL counties (78) compared to the long-term average, which was attributed to good performance of the long rains. Majority of counties experienced a stable trend as illustrated in Table 6. Table 6: Goat prices - June 2023 Goat Baringo Garissa Embu Isiolo Baringo Embu Prices Kitui Kajiado Taita Taveta Kwale Samburu Kilifi Garissa Narok Taita Taveta Kitui Laikipia Laikipia Lamu Nyeri Makueni Mandera West Pokot Tharaka Marsabit Makueni Nithi Meru Samburu Wajir Tharaka Tana River West Pokot Nithi Wajir Isiolo Turkana Kilifi 1.4 Crop production Table 7 summarises the current state of crop production in the Coastal Marginal Agriculture and South East Marginal Agriculture clusters. Table 7: Current status of crop production. Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Marginal Kilifi Early planted maize and green grams were ready for harvest, while Agriculture most farms recorded varied maize development stages from knee- high to grain-filling stage. Harvesting of green maize crop. Minimal harvest of pineapples from Magarini. Kwale Weeding was ongoing across the county, with three main crops planted being maize, cowpeas and green grams. South East Kitui Majority of crops were at harvesting stage and in fair condition. Marginal Makueni Green grams and cowpeas had performed fairly while maize Agriculture registered total crop failure. Tharaka Crop conditions were fair-to-good and at harvesting stage for Nithi legumes while cereal crops were at ripening stage. Most farmers were harvesting and threshing for pulses while preparation for harvesting was underway for cereals. Embu Crop in both livelihood zones was ready for harvesting. Harvesting of green grams, beans and cowpeas was complete. 1.4.1 Maize prices Maize prices in all ASALs were above the long term average (LTA) since farmers are yet to harvest. 15 counties (65 ) experienced a stable trend in maize prices. These include Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Taita Taveta, Wajir, Lamu, Marsabit, Embu, Kilifi, Kwale, Meru, Samburu,Tharaka Nithi,Turkana and Mandera. However, eight counties recorded a worsening trend in maize prices as illustrated in Table 8. Table 8: Maize prices - June 2023 Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening to LTA Maize Embu Garissa Baringo Prices Kilifi Isiolo Kitui Laikipia Kajiado L a ikipia Makueni Taita Taveta Makueni Tana River Wajir Narok Tharaka Nithi Lamu Nyeri Wajir Marsabit Tana River West Pokot Embu West Pokot Baringo Kilifi Garissa Kwale Isiolo Meru Kajiado Samburu Kitui Tharaka Nithi Lamu Mandera Samburu 1.5 Water Access 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 10 counties are currently below the long term average. Compared to the previous month, there was a general improvement in distances to water sources for households. Distances to household water access in arid counties (pastoral) ranged between 2.5 kilometres for Isiolo (which recorded lowest) and 7.6 km for Mandera, which had the highest distances. Distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 1.7 km in Laikipia (lowest) and 5.3 km inner North with the highest distance to household water access. Table 9 shows the trend in distances walked by households to access water. Table 9: Trends in main water sources (domestic uses) in June 2023 Distance West Pokot Garissa Baringo Kilifi Baringo Embu from Turkana Lamu Embu Lamu Garissa Isiolo households Taita Taveta Narok Isiolo Makueni Kitui Kajiado to main Tana River Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Kwale water Tharaka Nithi Kitui Taita Laikipia sources Nyeri Makueni Taveta Mandera Meru Mandera Turkana Meru Kwale Marsabit West Pokot Narok Laikipia Samburu Nyeri Kajiado Wajir Samburu 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock Trekking distances to water sources from grazing areas was stable compared to May. Baringo, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, Laikipia, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir recorded a worsening trend due to cessation of the rains season and high evaporation. The average trekking distances for livestock in arid counties ranged between 5 and 11.2 kilometres, with Wajir recording lowest and Mandera the highest distance. Distances in semi-arid counties ranged between 1.5 and 7.9 kilometres, with Kilifi recording the lowest and Meru the highest. Table 10 shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 10: Trends in main water sources (livestock use) in June 2023 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Distance Kajiado Narok Baringo Kilifi Embu Baringo from Laikipia Kitui Embu Kwale Lamu Garissa livestock Meru Garissa Kilifi Narok Makueni Isiolo grazing area Nyeri Kwale Tharaka Nithi Samburu Kajiado to main Taita Lamu Taita Kitui water Taveta Makueni Taveta Laikipia sources Tana River Mandera West Pokot Mandera Turkana Marsabit Marsabit West Pokot Samburu Meru Tharaka Nyeri Nithi Tana River 1.6 Terms of trade Terms of trade trends in June, specifically the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties, fell below the long term average due to diminished household purchasing power. The decline was attributable to high prices of food commodities in local markets. Nevertheless, an improvement was observed in Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kwale, Mandera, Marsabit and Meru while the trend in nine other counties was stable as shown in Table 11. Table 11: Terms of Trade in June 2023 Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Terms of Trade Kilifi Baringo Isiolo Kitui Baringo (ToT) Mandera Embu Kajiado Wajir Embu Garissa Kilifi Turkana Laikipia Kitui Kwale Taita Taveta Makueni Kwale Mandera West Pokot Narok Makueni Marsabit Samburu Nyeri Meru Meru Lamu Tana River West Pokot 1.7 Health and nutrition Table 12 illustrates the variation in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties based on middle-upper-arm-circumference (MUAC) measurement. 18 counties recorded MUAC values above long term average, which can be attributed to high commodity prices, low purchasing power as well as inadequate dietary diversity, suboptimal child feeding practices, and decreased overall food intake at household level. Table 12: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) - June 2023 (18) (2) (3) (9) (12) (2) Baringo Embu Kilifi Embu Baringo Narok MUAC Nyeri Lamu Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Garissa Nyeri Kajiado West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Isiolo Wajir Wajir Kilifi Mandera Taita Taveta Kwale Tana River Makueni Laikipia Marsabit Kitui Lamu Turkana Meru Mandera Meru Samburu Marsabit Kitui Tana River Samburu Turkana Garissa West Pokot Kwale 2.0 Drought Phase Classification Based on the range of indicators monitored above, 19 counties including Embu, Lamu, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Samburu, Mandera, Nyeri, Baringo, Kilifi, Tana River, West Pokot, Turkana, Garissa, Kitui, Laikipia, Meru, Makueni and Narok are in the Normal drought phase, while Taita Taveta is in the Alert drought phase. Isiolo, Marsabit and Kwale are in Recovery phase. Six counties reported an improving trend in June, while another 15 recorded a stable trend and two counties reported a worsening trend. Table 13 summarises the drought phase classification as at the end of June 2023. Table 13: Drought phase classification - June 2023 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Deteriorating Normal Embu, Lamu, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir, Samburu, Mandera, Nyeri, Narok, Makueni Kajiado Baringo, Kilifi, Tana River, West Pokot, Turkana, Garissa, Kitui, Laikipia, Meru Alert Taita Taveta Alarm Emergency Recovery Isiolo, Kwale 3.0 Recommendations a) Food and safety nets: Provision of food assistance and regular cash transfers targeting food insecure. b) Livestock sector: Facilitating safe migration for pastoralists moving back to their settlements; and treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. c) Water sector: Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities; provision of water treatment tablets; and procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof catchment rainwater harvesting. d) Health and nutrition sector: Support to hygiene and sanitation promotion; and sustained mass screening and referrals. e) Education sector: Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions; and provision of food to subsidise school fees in boarding secondary schools. f) Peace and security sector: Facilitating intrainter-community peace dialogues and resource use agreements; and coordination of peace and security activities in conflict- prone counties. g) Coordination: Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought risk management activities. Table 14: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 28th June 2023 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GREENNESS COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI values Drought Category month month (3-month) as at as at 50 Vegetation greenness above 28th 30th normal May June 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness 2023 2023 20 - 35 Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - 20 Severe vegetation deficit 10 Extreme vegetation deficit BARINGO County 50.49 56.6 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness in June. Central 77.16 71.88 This was an improvement compared to May. North 65.13 62.12 South 37.93 53.24 Ravine 91.77 77.73 Mogotio 24.33 45.22 Tiaty 44.27 52.17 MANDERA County -26.08 34.65 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation cover to Lafey -32.96 30.45 moderate vegetation deficit from extreme deficit in June. North -37.19 30.79 Banissa -28.14 26.51 West -16.01 37.37 South -19.06 44.26 East -20.65 34.33 TURKANA County 29.85 41.81 The county recorded an improvement in the vegetation East 12.45 28.95 greenness from moderate vegetation deficit to normal vegetation South 13.25 35.7 greenness during the month of June. Loima 18.3 41.07 Central 11.53 34.12 West 39.85 49.42 North 50.06 48.51 MARSABIT County 8.68 35.18 The county recorded great improvement in the vegetation cover Laisamis 9.87 35.12 from extreme vegetation deficit in May to normal vegetation Moyale 5.15 32.75 greenness in June. North Horr 8.87 35.09 Saku 9.35 48.65 WAJIR County 3.73 39.42 The county recorded great improvement in the vegetation cover Tarbaj -5.39 45.48 from extreme vegetation deficit in May to normal vegetation North 6.32 42.8 greenness in June. Wajir West recorded above normal vegetation -5.67 greenness. South 29.66 West 30.78 54.77 Eldas 24.37 48.86 -14.85 East 30.27 SAMBURU County 7.13 31.77 The county recorded an improving trend in vegetation greenness East -2.53 26.56 from extreme vegetation deficit to moderate deficit in June. North 13.03 34.22 West 26.39 44.74 GARISSA County 15.86 37.42 The county experienced an improvement in vegetation condition Balambala 6.46 24.38 from severe vegetation deficit to normal vegetation greenness in Township 34.23 35.39 June. Great improvements were noted in Balambala, Daadab and 65.5 Fafi sub-counties. Ijara 58.99 Fafi 8.33 30.71 Lagdera 20.86 45.81 Dadaab -23.57 29.01 ISIOLO County 13.56 38.74 The county and all subcounties noted an improvement in North 15.1 35.25 vegetation condition from severe vegetation deficit to normal South 11.2 44.08 vegetation greenness in June. TANA RIVER County -5.18 28.96 The county and two subcounties recorded improvement in Bura -11.17 22.31 vegetation greenness from severe to moderate vegetation deficit. Galole -16.78 26.06 Garsen 7.17 36.42 KAJIADO County 51.49 47.21 The county recorded normal vegetation greenness while Kajiado Central 90.99 61.83 Central, North and West showed above normal vegetation East 11.82 34.92 greenness. North 77.18 70.01 South 10.18 31.45 West 79.18 56.52 LAIKIPIA County 13.9 40.91 The vegetation condition in the County and sub counties East 18.07 45.08 improved to normal vegetation greenness from severe vegetation North 12.07 37.06 deficit. West 15.32 46.1 THARAKA County 39.98 53.33 The county recorded an improvement to above normal NITHI Chuka 52.96 62.48 vegetation greenness from normal, with Tharaka subcounty Maara 103.81 80.59 showing great improvement from severe deficit to normal Tharaka 14.69 41.17 vegetation greenness. WEST County 44.61 49.21 The county recorded stability at normal vegetation greenness, POKOT Kacheliba 33.27 43.12 with Kacheliba subcounty registering improvement to normal Kapenguria 49.51 51.24 greenness from moderate deficit. Pokot South 67.98 63.63 Sigor 47.30 50.04 EMBU County 24.64 51.61 The county recorded an improvement to above normal Manyatta 91.95 79.38 vegetation greenness from moderate vegetation deficit. Mbeere Mbeere 0.04 41.84 South and North sub counties registered the greatest North improvement. Mbeere 3.23 42.53 Runyenjes 84.45 76.31 County 12.76 42.63 The County recorded an improvement in vegetation cover to Kitui Central 38.72 64.4 normal greenness. Kitui Central, Rural and West registered the Kitui East 1.83 47.3 greatest improvement to above normal vegetation greenness. KITUI Kitui Rural 60.82 72.33 Kitui South 24.1 42.54 Kitui West 39.49 57.13 Mwingi -8.32 38.47 Mwingi -2.68 31.49 Mwingi West 1.83 39.93 County 47.51 59.32 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to Kaiti 70.35 80.9 above normal vegetation greenness from normal vegetation MAKUENI Kibwezi East 61.25 54.19 greenness, with Kilome showing the greatest improvement. Kibwezi West 27.41 48.68 Kilome -3.42 47.02 Makueni 68.52 72.58 Mbooni 57.97 74.43 MERU County 53.16 56.6 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition to Buuri 82.54 62.92 above normal vegetation greenness. Igembe Central, North and Central 115.28 78.49 South sub counties showed the greatest improvement. Imenti Igembe 8.07 45.39 Igembe -9.83 33.4 Igembe 8.4 45.58 North Imenti 105.42 74.88 South Imenti 127.14 87.07 Tigania East 43.49 50.65 Tigania West 82.24 64.39 County 100.29 80.35 The county and all sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation NYERI Kieni 95.29 76.5 condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition during Mathira 115.98 90.87 the month of June. Mukurweini 110.62 91.12 Nyeri Town 115.67 87.54 Othaya 88.2 75.83 Tetu 105.79 82.64 County 29.1 46.58 The vegetation condition in the county improved to normal KILIFI Ganze 48.48 51.89 vegetation greenness, with Kilifi North registering moderate Kaloleni 41.32 54.18 vegetation deficit. Kilifi North -9.41 34.17 Kilifi South 21.8 47.62 Magarini 25.6 44.77 Malindi 11.66 44.98 Rabai 32.71 53.37 KWALE County 72.6 64.58 The county and all its sub counties recorded stability in vegetation Kinango 79.15 67.58 condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the Lunga 70.00 62.24 month of June. Matuga 61.29 60.3 Msambweni 35.33 50.8 LAMU County 66.78 69.65 The county and all sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation Lamu East 68.33 68.48 condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the Lamu West 65.89 70.33 month of June. ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT TAITA County 14.66 32.13 The county improved to moderate vegetation deficit in June. TAVETA Mwatate -6.56 25.6 Taveta -18.58 23.38 Voi 35.55 37.98 Wundanyi 5.82 28.91 County 112.29 80.72 The county and all sub counties recorded stability in vegetation NAROK Emurua Dikirr 84.49 68.54 condition at above normal vegetation greenness during the Kilgoris 108.17 73.81 month of June. Narok East 60.64 65.97 Narok North 84.95 76.33 Narok South 121.52 84.1 Narok West 141.73 89.71 Overview of the Drought Early Warning System Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi- arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 15). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: 1. Normal 2. Alert 3. Alarm 4. Emergency 5. Recovery Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle (Figure 5). Table 15: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of Examples of indicators Types of impact indicator monitored Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and Distances to water water Utilisation MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Nutrition Circumference) Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score 1. NORMAL indicators show no unusual fluctuations 5. RECOVERY 2. ALERT Environmental indicators indicators return to fluctuate outside seasonal norms expected seasonal ranges 3. ALARM 4. EMERGENCY Environmental and All indicators are outside production indicators normal ranges fluctuate outside seasonal ranges Figure 5: Drought Phase Classification