August 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS The above average rainfall recorded during In comparison to the long term average, average milk the March to May rainy season has led to production per household in July 2020 in 14 counties enhancement of the environmental indicators was above or close to LTA which was attributed to and as a result all the 23 ASAL counties are increased availability of water, pasture and browse. currently categorized in the normal drought phase with eight counties reporting a In the marginal agricultural counties crops are generally worsening trend while 14 counties recorded in favourable condition due to the enhanced March to a stable trend and the trend improving in one May rainfall and crop yields are expected to be above county. average across ASAL counties. The 2020 March-April- May cropping season was characterized by a timely Body condition of all species of livestock start and harvesting is currently ongoing in most of the remained good across ASAL counties. The semi-arid counties. improvement in livestock body condition was attributed to availability of adequate In almost all the 23 ASAL counties the terms of trade pasture and browse and short trekking (ToT) are above the long term average for the month distances from grazing areas to water points. while in 20 counties the ToT are showing a stable or Consequently, livestock productivity upward trend. The favourable ToT recorded in July especially milk production has increased in 2020 were driven by the significantly above average most ASAL areas. goat prices. Drought phase classification, July 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Wajir Baringo Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Tana Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Kitui, River, Mandera, Meru (Meru North), Narok, Embu (Mbeere), Kwale, Nyeri Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), (Kieni), Makueni Turkana, West Pokot 1.0 Drought status 1.1 Drought indicator Rainfall General dry weather conditions prevailed over the south-eastern (Kitui, Makueni) and north eastern (Mandera, Garissa, Isiolo and Wajir) counties. However, counties mainly in the north western part of the country such as Baringo, West Pokot, Turkana and Samburu and Coastal counties (Lamu, Kilifi and Kwale) the received significant amounts of rainfall that was above the July long term average. Occasional cool and cloudy conditions accompanied by light rains occurred in some ASAL areas such as Narok, Nyeri (Kieni), Meru (Meru North), Embu (Mbeere) Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Kajiado and Laikipia. The good performance of the March-April-May (MAM) 2020 seasonal rainfall is evident as it has resulted to high vegetation regeneration with all the 23 arid and semi-arid counties currently classified in the above normal vegetation greenness category as shown in Figure 1 which compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in late July 2019 with that in late July 2020. However, a slight deterioration in the state of the vegetation was observed in three sub counties namely: Wajir South, Wajir West and Isiolo North which are currently classified in the normal vegetation greenness band. Detailed VCI values for July 2020 disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Annex 1. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) July 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) July 2020 Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), July 2019 and July 2020 Livestock production Livestock production indicators remained stable during the month of July. The stable trend in both livestock body condition and milk production was attributed to good pasture and browse availability and reduction in the trekking distances from grazing fields to water points. Pasture and browse condition Pasture and browse condition in most ASAL areas is good to fair (Table 1) mainly as a result of the favourable rainfall performance of both October to December 2019 short rains and the long rains in 2020 which has impacted positively on regeneration of pasture and browse in most counties. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, July 2020 Pasture Browse Poor Fair Good Poor Fair Good Embu Garissa Baringo Kilifi Embu Baringo Kilifi Isiolo Kitui Kwale Wajir Garissa Laikipia Lamu Makueni Lamu Narok Isiolo Marsabit Narok Mandera Tharaka Nithi Makueni Samburu Nyeri Marsabit Taita Taveta Mandera Turkana Kitui Meru West Pokot Meru Kajiado Kwale Nyeri Samburu Tana River Tharaka Nithi Tana River Turkana Wajir Taita Taveta Kajiado Laikipia West Pokot Livestock body condition Body condition for most livestock is currently good compared to fair normally as summarized in Table 2. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, July 2020 Cattle Goats P oor Fair Good P oor Fair Good Isiolo Garissa Kajiado Wajir Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Lamu Laikipia Baringo Isiolo Taita Taveta Narok Wajir Makueni Mandera L amu West Pokot Embu Marsabit Kitui Tana River Meru Turkana Kwale Samburu Kilifi Samburu Kilifi Makueni Mandera Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Marsabit Kitui Taita Taveta Narok Laikipia Baringo West Pokot Embu Turkana Kwale Tana River Meru Garissa Kajiado Milk production Milk production situation in the 23 ASAL counties is illustrated in Table 3. In comparison to the long term average, average milk production per household in July 2020 in 14 counties was above or close to LTA which was attributed to increased availability of water, pasture and browse. However, in eight counties: Marsabit, Turkana, Samburu, Mandera, Kitui, Kwale, Tana River and Embu average milk production per household was below normal. The below average milk production was attributed to a reduction in the proportion of lactating cattle and a drop in kidding in goats, increase in livestock disease incidences and a general reduction in livestock herd sizes. Table 3.0: Milk production, July 2020 Milk Baringo Kajiado Kwale Baringo Garissa Kwale Production Makueni Meru Kitui Kitui Meru Samburu Kilifi Narok Mandera Makueni Embu Tharaka Nithi Garissa Wajir Marsabit Marsabit Isiolo Nyeri Isiolo Embu Narok Kajiado Mandera Lamu Samburu Tana River Lamu Nyeri Tana River Turkana Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Turkana Kilifi Wajir Tharaka Nithi West Pokot West Pokot Cattle prices Table 4 shows the trends in cattle prices in July 2020. In all the ASAL counties current cattle prices are higher than the long term average for the month of July owing mainly to the fact that cattle are still in good body condition. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, July 2020 Cattle Wajir, Baringo Kajiado, Tana River West Pokot Kwale Tharaka Nithi Prices Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Samburu Mandera Nyeri Marsabit Mandera, Marsabit Meru Laikipia Taita Taveta (Meru North), Narok, Baringo Makueni Samburu, Taita Taveta, Kajiado Turkana Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Wajir Garissa (Tharaka), Turkana, West Meru Kilifi Pokot, Embu (Mbeere), Lamu Isiolo Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Embu Narok Kwale, Nyeri (Kieni), Kitui Goat prices During the month of July goat prices were close to or above the 2015-19 average in a all ASAL counties. Table 5 summarizes the trend in goat prices in the 23 ASAL counties. Table 5.0: Goat prices, July 2020 Goat Wajir, Baringo Kajiado, Marsabit Embu Kilifi Turkana Garissa Prices Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Isiolo Mandera Nyeri Kwale Mandera, Marsabit Meru Kajiado Laikipia Narok Samburu (Meru North), Narok, Kitui Baringo Meru Wajir Samburu, Taita Taveta, Lamu Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Makueni Taita Taveta (Tharaka), Turkana, West West Pokot Pokot, Embu (Mbeere), Tana River Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Marsabit Kwale, Nyeri (Kieni), In nearly all the marginal agricultural counties such as Kitui, Makueni, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere), Tharaka, Meru North, Narok, and Nyeri (Kieni) crops are generally in favourable condition due to the enhanced March-April-May (MAM) rainfall. The MAM cropping season was characterized by a timely start and harvesting was ongoing in most areas. Crop yields are expected to be above average across ASAL counties. Maize prices Table 6 demonstrates the trends in maize prices in July 2020. In most of the ASAL counties, the current maize prices are below average with almost 90 percent of the counties recording prices below or close to the 2015 - 19 LTA. In Kitui, for instance, the average price of a kilograms of maize in July was Kshs 34 which is 23 percent lower than the three-year average price of Kshs 44. Likewise, average maize prices in Narok, Meru (Meru North), Embu (Mbeere), Nyeri (Kieni), and Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) were below LTA by 21, 20, 16, 15 and 13 percent respectively. Maize prices will likely be on a reducing trend in the next three months as harvesting will have been completed and households will have stocks in store hence reducing demand. Table 6.0: Maize prices, July 2020 Maize Garissa Baringo West Pokot Narok Kwale Samburu Garissa Tana River Prices Lamu Kwale Samburu Kitui Lamu Mandera Narok Mandera Marsabit Kajiado Isiolo Meru Laikipia Baringo Tana River Makueni Embu Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Wajir Laikipia Meru West Pokot Tharaka Isiolo Kilifi Nyeri Marsabit Embu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Kitui Taita Taveta Makueni Nyeri Turkana Taita Taveta Access to water Return distances to watering points for households have significantly reduced due to improvements in water availability. For example, return distances range between 3 and 6 km compared to five kilometres normally in Wajir, 1-2 km compared to 4-10 km normally in Isiolo while in Garissa and Mandera, distances are normal ranging between 5 and10 km. In Tana River, return distances are one kilometre compared to 1-3 km. Similarly, return distances to water sources are normal at less than one kilometre across Kilifi County and in the mixed farming zones of Kwale, Lamu and Taita Taveta. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, July 2020 Distance from Kajiado Embu Tana River Meru Baringo Taita Taveta Embu Garissa households to Kwale Laikipia Samburu Nyeri Kwale Marsabit Isiolo Kajiado main water Lamu Wajir Makueni Kitui Makueni Turkana Kilifi Kitui sources Mandera Turkana Isiolo Meru Laikipia Narok Nyeri Marsabit Garissa Narok Tana River Tharaka West Pokot Tharaka Baringo Kilifi Lamu Samburu Taita Taveta Mandera West Pokot Wajir The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 8. In 16 counties, the average distance to water for livestock is shorter than normal for the time of year largely attributed to enhanced pasture availability which has made livestock to graze close to existing water points. Table 8.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, July 2020 Distance from Garissa Embu Tana River Meru Baringo Taita Taveta Tana River Wajir livestock Kwale Kitui Baringo Isiolo Lamu West Pokot Samburu Narok grazing area Tharaka Laikipia Turkana Kajiado Meru Turkana Embu Garissa to main water Lamu Makueni Narok K wale Isiolo Kajiado Marsabit Kilifi Kitui Kilifi sources Mandera Wajir Laikipia Makueni Samburu Nyeri Mandera Nyeri Taita Taveta Marsabit West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Terms of trade Table 9 summarises the goat-to-maize price ratio. In almost all the 23 ASAL counties the terms of trade (ToT) are above the long term average for the month while in 20 counties the ToT are showing a stable or upward trend. The favourable ToT recorded in July 2020 were driven by the significantly above average goat prices. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, July 2020 Terms of Marsabit Kitui Wajir Makueni Baringo Laikipia Wajir trade Samburu Nyeri Kajiado Mandera Nyeri Meru (ToT) Laikipia Kilifi Kwale Tharaka Nithi Mandera Kajiado Narok Taita Taveta Baringo Garissa Isiolo West Pokot Turkana Narok Lamu Tana River Makueni Isiolo Embu Marsabit Tharaka Kwale Kitui Samburu Tana River Embu Turkana West Pokot Lamu Garissa Taita Taveta Meru Kilifi Health and nutrition The proportion of children aged below five years in ASAL counties who are at risk of malnutrition is estimated using the mid-upper-arm-circumference (MUAC) method (Table 10). In July 2020, counties such as Turkana, Garissa, Isiolo, Lamu, Samburu, and Tana River recorded MUAC rates above LTA implying that the nutritional status of children during the month was worse than normal times. The high malnutrition rates in these counties was largely due to poor infant and child care feeding practices and high diseases prevalence. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), July 2020 Mid Garissa Laikipia Kilifi Kilifi Embu Baringo Garissa Upper Arm Isiolo Marsabit Kwale Meru Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Circumference Lamu Baringo Narok Laikipia Lamu Makueni Mandera Nyeri Makueni Kitui Kwale Marsabit Narok Samburu Mandera Meru Samburu Wajir Tana River Tana River Tharaka Nithi Tharaka Nithi Turkana Turkana Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Kajiado West Pokot 1.2 Drought phase classification The above average rainfall recorded during the March to May rainy season has led to enhancement of the environmental indicators and as a result all the 23 ASAL counties are currently categorized in the normal drought phase. As at the end of July, eight counties were reporting a worsening trend, 14 counties recorded a stable trend with the trend improving in one county as shown in Table 11. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, July 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Wajir Baringo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Kitui, Tana River, Mandera , Meru (Meru Embu (Mbeere), Makueni, North), Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Nyeri (Kieni), Kwale Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana, West Pokot Recovery 2.0 Recommendations Provision of food assistance and cash transfers targeting vulnerable households across ASAL counties. Installation of water harvesting and storage structures such as water pans and tanks. Support livestock disease surveillance through training of community disease reporters and conduct livestock vaccination campaigns to curb the spread of notifiable disease. Promote pasture establishment and livestock feed conservation including controlled grazing. Promotion of appropriate post-harvest management practices in particular targeting farmers in the agro pastoral areas. Boost community sensitization campaigns on COVID-19 preventive measures including promotion of hand washing and other hygiene practices. Awareness creation on child care practices and provision of essential nutrition commodities to reduce cases of malnutrition among children. Conduct inter-county and cross border peace dialogue meetings targeting conflict hotspots to facilitate peaceful coexistence and sharing of resources. Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 27th July 2020 BARINGO County 87.93 93.94 The entire county is in above normal vegetation greenness, the situation Central 86.57 91.29 has Improved compared to the previous month of June. Eldama 69.71 77.92 Mogotio 85.34 93.78 North 87.58 93.44 South 82.01 85.50 Tiaty 95.13 101.21 MANDERA County 83.38 92.45 The county has recorded improvement in vegetation greenness above Banissa 80.18 84.13 normal in the month of July compared to the previous month of June, with all of its sub counties a recording improvement in Vegetation condition. M. East 68.71 78.75 Lafey 84.64 97.08 M. North 87.93 94.73 M. South 79.77 93.21 M. West 87.45 94.13 TURKANA County 85.05 82.80 Significant stability in VCI for the county though below the value recorded T. Central 93.37 94.79 in the month of June. All sub counties having recorded above normal vegetation greenness in the month of July as compared to the month of T. East 87.62 85.65 T. Loima 103.1 98.65 T. North 63.80 65.03 T. South 107.04 96.97 T. West 84.65 81.57 MARSABIT County 64.30 64.24 Stability in the VCI condition for the above normal vegetation greenness Laisaimis 69.38 70.29 scale was noticed in the month of July compared with the previous month of June. Greater improvement in VCI value was reported in Saku sub county. Moyale 59.22 61.54 N. Horr 62.30 60.78 Saku 72.26 77.81 WAJIR County 54.53 61.41 There was an improvement in the vegetation condition in the entire county W. East 68.36 73.09 with exception of Wajir South and Wajir West that had normal vegetation greenness. W. Eldas 43.05 57.81 W. North 75.55 87.19 W. South 48.22 48.66 W. Tarbaj 68.86 79.32 W. West 32.06 42.50 SAMBURU County 78.93 79.43 The entire county is in above normal vegetation greenness. All the sub- S. East 71.98 71.73 counties recorded improvement in vegetation greenness above normal in S. North 85.39 86.23 t he month of July as compared to the previous month of June. S. West 85.03 87.35 GARISSA County 69.71 68.08 The entire County has vegetation greenness above normal and vegetation Balambala 82.63 85.89 stability across all its sub counties Daadab 63.51 63.99 Fafi 74.06 69.77 Ijara 69.47 64.46 Lagdera 56.96 60.33 Dujis 68.19 67.39 ISIOLO County 53.64 50.63 Stability in vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation I. North 51.43 49.88 greenness above normal in all parts of the county except for Isiolo North that has normal vegetation greenness. I. South 57.01 51.77 TANA County 78.65 75.43 The county and all sub counties remained at above normal vegetation RIVER Bura 79.54 86.16 greenness condition. This situation remained stable in July as compared to last month of June. Galole 77.19 71.36 Garsen 78.82 68.87 KAJIADO County 77.99 79.43 Improvement noted across the county with all sub counties remaining at K. Central 70.95 71.14 above normal vegetation greenness conditions. All the sub-counties have stable vegetation condition in the month of July compared to the month of K. East 71.94 69.13 K. North 68.60 62.49 K. South 75.89 75.26 K. West 86.50 92.32 LAIKIPIA County 79.41 87.75 The county Improved in vegetation greenness and in above normal L. East 79.93 84.02 vegetation greenness. Significant improvement noted in Laikipia West, Laikipia North and Laikipia East when month of July and June are compared. L. North 80.31 90.12 L. West 77.96 85.09 THARAKA County 65.19 65.9 The county and its sub counties are in above normal vegetation greenness. NITHI Chulga 75.28 78.52 The situation improved slightly when compared to the previous month of Maara 71.74 76.19 Tharaka 65.19 57.85 WEST County 82.92 84.19 The vegetation greenness is in above normal condition across the county. POKOT Kacheliba 81.54 83.70 The situation showed slight improvement as compared to the previous month of June. Kapenguria 83.57 86.84 Pokot South 79.24 76.67 Sigor 87.09 87.32 EMBU County 75.52 74.14 The county and its sub counties are stable and in above normal vegetation Manyatta 77.99 82.53 greenness. Mbeere North 74.16 71.79 Mbeere South 74.59 70.78 Runyenjes 79.27 82.57 KITUI County 84.27 86.74 The county remained in above normal vegetation greenness condition, with Kitui Central 84.65 91.32 all its sub-counties remaining in stable vegetation condition when Kitui East 88.77 94.07 c ompared to the month of June. Mwingi Central 85.05 89.60 Mwingi North 71.03 70.38 Mwingi West 89.08 89.26 Kitui Rural 88.24 97.44 Kitui South 86.55 87.31 Kitui West 86.82 93.82 MAKUENI County 81.63 82.55 The county reported slight improvement in VCI value. There has been a Kaiti 86.36 85.78 significant stability with the county and all its sub-counties in above normal vegetation greenness conditions. Kibwezi East 77.38 75.81 Kibwezi West 77.57 76.33 Kilome 78.77 78.17 Makueni 85.61 91.80 Mbooni 94.39 99.41 MERU County 73.15 74.33 The vegetation greenness is stable and above normal across the county and Buuri 70.56 75.06 its Sub-counties. Specific Preparedness activities by stakeholders key to the process. Central Imenti 70.25 74.19 Igembe Central 80.73 82.28 Igembe North 71.51 66.74 Igembe South 79.03 81.12 North Imenti 71.40 79.48 South Imenti 75.56 77.75 Tigania East 66.97 64.94 Tigania West 73.97 72.51 NYERI County 77.65 79.97 The county and its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation Kieni 76.80 80.86 greenness condition and stable as compared to the previous month. Mathira 78.20 78.13 Mukurweini 89.79 87.41 Town 84.71 88.68 Othaya 73.85 73.78 Tetu 75.62 75.82 KILIFI County 71.87 66.01 Slight deterioration in vegetation condition across all the sub counties with Ganze 81.43 70.76 vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. All the sub- counties showed stability in the vegetation greenness level as compared to Kaloleni 74.52 69.31 the month of June. Magarini 68.80 63.30 Malindi 68.48 69.39 Kilifi-North 62.08 64.89 Rabai 78.25 72.05 Kilifi-South 70.04 65.69 KWALE County 72.11 60.47 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. The Kinango 74.06 59.41 county together with all its sub-counties showed a stability in the vegetation condition in the month of July compared with the month of Lungalunga 73.97 59.65 Matuga 65.2 66.97 Msambweni 57.46 60.23 LAMU County 80.47 72.59 Stability though deteriorating in vegetation condition in both county and Lamu East 78.43 76.93 sub counties although all remained at above normal vegetation greenness condition. Lamu West 81.65 70.08 TAITA County 83.85 80.57 The county and its sub counties are stable and in above normal vegetation TAVETA Mwatate 90.8 88.72 greenness condition. Taveta 83.68 82.09 Voi 80.48 75.42 Wundanyi 100.51 105.69 NAROK County 73.83 73.78 The entire county and its sub counties stable and in above normal Narok-East 77.20 74.85 vegetation greenness. Emurua Dikirr 59.95 62.24 Kilgoris 64.25 63.25 Narok-North 71.93 70.63 Narok-South 74.38 77.91 Narok-West 78.24 76.77 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 3. ALARM 5. RECOVERY Environmental and production indicators indicators return to fluctuate outside seasonal norms 2. ALERT 1. NORMAL indicators fluctuate indicators show no outside expected unusual fluctuations