BARINGO COUNTY 2021 LONG RAINS FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ASSESSMENT REPORT A joint report by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) and Baringo County Steering Group (CSG), July 2021 The 2021 long rains assessment in Baringo County was conducted by technical members of the County Steering Group (CSG) that were drawn from agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition sectors and supported remotely by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG). The assessment was carried out in the four major livelihoods namely; Mixed Farming, Pastoral, Agro-Pastoral and Irrigated Cropping livelihood zones. The main objective of the long rains assessment was to develop an objective, evidencebased and transparent food and nutrition security situation analysis following the long rains of 2021. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used to carry out the situation analysis. The main drivers of food insecurity are poor rainfall performance, insecurity, COVID-19 pandemic, crop failure, crop pests and livestock diseases. Rainfall performance was poor, characterized by late onset and poor spatial and temporal distribution however, off season showers were received during the month of July. About 50 percent of the crop failed in the Mixed Farming and Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zones while cases of crop pests involving Fall Army worms were reported and therefore projected maize yield is estimated to be about 45 percent of the long-term average (LTA). The impacts of the COVID -19 pandemic are still affecting food security by affecting movements of food commodities due to restrictions that have been put in place by the Government. Cases of insecurity were experienced in the Pastoral Livelihood Zone. The acreage put under rain fed agriculture and the projected yield is below the long-term average (LTA) while household maize stocks are slightly above the LTA. For the Irrigated Agriculture Livelihood Zone, both acreage and the projected yield is above the LTA. Forage conditions are fair to good while water sources for livestock are normal and livestock body condition is fair to good. Return water distances were above normal and water consumption per household per day was below normal though this is expected to change due to the impact of the off-season rains received in July. Markets were operating normally except in the pastoral areas whereby they were affected by insecurity. The most common diseases in both the under five children and the general population are upper respiratory tract infections (URTI), diarrhea and malaria while Vitamin A coverage has increased compared to last year, a factor that was contributed by measles campaign. Immunization coverage was over 100 percent as a result of the measles campaign while nutrition status in children of under five years of age was stable. The Pastoral livelihood zone had 39 and three percent of the households with borderline and poor food consumption score respectively. The SMART survey findings of July 2021 show that the Pastoral livelihood zone has a global acute malnutrition (GAM) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) prevalence of 24.4 percent (Critical) and 3.9 percent respectively while stunting prevalence is very high at 40.7 percent. The Pastoral and Agro Pastoral Livelihood Zones were applying unusual coping strategies in accessing food. Latrine coverage in the Pastoral livelihood zone is very low compared to the county average while proportion of households accessing water from protected sources was less than 30 percent. Decline in school enrolment has been attributed to prolonged school holidays occasioned by COVID- 19 pandemic, teenage pregnancy, early marriage among other causes. The Pastoral Livelihood Zone is classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) while the Agro pastoral and Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zones are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The Mixed Farming and Irrigated Cropping Livelihood Zones are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................... i 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 1 County background .................................................................................................................... 1 Objectives of the assessment ...................................................................................................... 1 2 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY ................................. 3 Rainfall performance .................................................................................................................. 3 InsecurityConflict ...................................................................................................................... 3 COVID-19 pandemic .................................................................................................................. 3 Other shocks and hazards .......................................................................................................... 4 3 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY ........................................ 4 Availability ................................................................................................................................... 4 Crop production .................................................................................................................. 4 Cereal stocks ........................................................................................................................ 6 Livestock production .......................................................................................................... 7 Livestock Migration .......................................................................................................................... 10 Impact on availability ....................................................................................................... 12 3.2.2 Terms of trade .......................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.3 Income sources ......................................................................................................................... 14 3.2.4 Water access and availability .................................................................................................. 15 3.2.5 Food consumption .................................................................................................................... 19 3.2.6 Coping strategy ........................................................................................................................ 20 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns .......................................................................................... 20 3.3.2 Immunization and vitamin A supplementation ..................................................................... 21 3.3.3 Nutritional status and dietary diversity ................................................................................. 22 3.3.4 Health and nutrition sector in COVID-19 context ................................................................ 24 3.3.5 Public interventions, risk communication and community level actions ............................ 24 3.3.6 Coordination and leadership in COVID-19 pandemic preparedness and response .......... 24 3.3.7 Sanitation and hygiene............................................................................................................. 24 3.5.1 Enrolment ................................................................................................................................. 27 3.5.4 School feeding ........................................................................................................................... 27 3.5.3 Inter sector links....................................................................................................................... 28 5.1.1 Phase classification ................................................................................................................... 31 5.1.2 Summary of findings ................................................................................................................ 31 5.1.3 Sub county ranking .................................................................................................................. 32 5.3.1 Food interventions.................................................................................................................... 37 5.3.2 Non-food interventions ............................................................................................................ 38 1 INTRODUCTION County background Baringo County borders Turkana and Samburu Counties to the north, Laikipia to the east, Nakuru and Kericho to the ssouth, Uasin Gishu 22 to the south west, and Elgeyo - Marakwet and West Pokot to the 43 west. The county covers an 31 approximate area of 11,015 square kilometres (Km2) with a population of 666,783 persons (2019 Housing Agro pastoral Pastoral Mixed farming Irrigated cropping and Population census, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics). The Figure 1: Population by livelihood zones county is divided into six (6) sub Counties namely: - Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South, Mogotio, Tiaty and Eldama Ravine. There are four main livelihood zones in the county which include Mixed farming, Pastoral, Agro-pastoral and Irrigated cropping (Figure 1). The main hazards in the county across the livelihoods are drought, water shortages and conflicts. Other hazards are crop pests and diseases in the irrigated cropping and the mixed farming livelihood zones. Objectives of the assessment The main objective of the 2021 Long Rains Food Security Assessment (LRA) was to conduct an objective, evidence-based and transparent food security situation analysis following the performance of the 2021 long rains season in Baringo county, taking into account the cumulative effect of previous seasons, and to provide recommendations for possible response options based on the situation analysis. Specifically, the assessment was aimed: i. To ascertain at livelihood level, the quantity and quality of the 2021 long rains and assess the impact of the season on food security situation. ii. To obtain adequate and reliable information for projecting food security needs iii. To assess the geographical spread of other hazards, and determine the impact of the shock on livelihoods iv. To assess the impact on livelihoods including crop and livestock production, markets, water, nutritional status and socio-economic conditions. v. To take stock of the available response activities addressing food insecurity and malnutrition and to establish required non-food intervention, with particular emphasis on programmes that promote preparedness and build household resilience. vi. To assess potential food needs, including options for appropriate transfer modalities such as food for assets, cash and vouchers, safety nets and general food distribution 1.3 Methodology and approach The 2021 Long Rains Assessment exercise was conducted by a multi sectoral and multi-agency team comprising of the County Steering Group and technical experts from the Departments of agriculture, livestock, water, education and health and nutrition at the county level. The assessment was conducted from 12th to 16th July 2021. The process began with the initial CSG briefing of the aims and objectives of the assessment followed by sector presentations and later a review of the sector checklists. The technical teams then proceeded to the field for a fact-finding mission upon sampling representative sites based on livelihood zones, with the aim of triangulating the information provided in the checklists with the actual situation on the ground. The process involved an in-depth analysis of primary data collected through Key Informant Interviews (KII), semi-structured community Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) comprising both gender, market surveys, and sectoral checklists. During the transect drives, visual inspection techniques were also employed and observations noted. Secondary data was collected through the checklists which were administered to the relevant departments for collection of quantitative data and gave sectoral briefs during the county steering group. Other data that was available to assist in the analysis included livelihood zone data, satellite data for rainfall, routine Demographic Health Information Systems (DHIS) data, National Drought Management Authority bulletins and SMART survey report among others. Data collected was analysed at the sub-county and livelihood zone levels and sectoral county reports prepared. Further analysis was done using the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) protocols. The team later compiled and drafted county report whose preliminary findings were presented to the CSG for adoption and ownership. 2 DRIVERS OF FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY IN THE COUNTY Rainfall performance Baringo County receives bimodal rainfall and is dependent on the long rains of March-April- May (MAM) which extends to July. The short rains season is in October-November and December. The onset of the season was late in the third dekad of April compared to the normal of second dekad of March. The county received an average of 294mm of rainfall compared to a normal of 299mm. Most parts in the northern part of the county comprising of Tiaty, Baringo North and Baringo South sub counties received an average of 76-114 percent of the normal rains while the Southern part comprising of Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine and Mogotio sub counties received an average of 76-114 percent of the normal rains (Figure 2). The spatial distribution of the rains was poor with the bulk of the rains being received in high land areas of Figure 2: Rainfall performance Mixed farming livelihood zone. The temporal distribution was very poor with about 40-50 percent of the rains being received in the first dekad of May. The cessation of the season was normal in the third dekad of May. However, the county has experienced significant off-season rains in the month of July. InsecurityConflict Insecurity is posing challenges in the Pastoral areas of the County mostly in Tiaty and Baringo South sub counties whereby incidents of banditry were reported. The government mounted major security operations in the area in a bid to bring the situation under control. The most affected wards were Mukutani in Baringo South sub county and parts of Mochongoi ward specifically in Tuyotich, Kapkechir, Kasiela, Ngelecha, Sinoni and Chebinyini areas. In Tiaty sub county, the most affected wards were Ribko and Silale. Households in the pastoral areas that were affected by insecurity did experience stress in accessing food and other non-food commodities due to poor market operations resulting in poor livestock prices hence low-income opportunities. Normalcy is slowly returning in the affected areas with the government reopening livestock markets in July. COVID-19 pandemic COVID-19 restriction measures are still affecting market operations. The night curfews are hampering movement of goods and services while uptake of health services is still low compared to the previous seasons due to fear of contracting the disease at the health facility. Other shocks and hazards Crop failure The county did experience crop failure due to poor rainfall distribution, affecting about 50 percent of the total crops planted with the most affected areas being Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo Central sub counties, resulting in a projected yield for maize being less than 50 percent of the LTA Fall Army worms (FAW) Incidents of crop pests involving fall army worms were observed on maize crop reported with 21 percent of the area planted being affected in Eldama Ravine, Baringo South and Baringo Central Sub Counties. 3 IMPACTS OF DRIVERS ON FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY Availability Crop production Long rains season are critical for crop production in the County, contributing about 80 percent of food requirement in the county. The rains are very important for recharging of water levels for irrigation and also farmers are contracted by seed companies. Baringo County has different ecological zones which are suitable for production of various crops. Table 1 shows main food crops grown in the County which include maize, beans, millets, Irish ppotatoes, ccowpeas and ssorghum. Other crops are horticultural crops (Fruits and vegetables) and Cash crops (Coffee, Cotton, Macadamia, and pyrethrum) Table 1: Contribution of crops to income and food Livelihood Crop Income Food Agropastoral Maize 10 90 Beans 15 85 Finger millet 40 60 Cowpeas 40 60 Mixed Maize 40 60 Beans 40 60 Finger millet 30 70 Irrigated Maize 80 20 Tomatoes 90 10 Water melons 90 10 Rain fed agriculture Table 2: Rain fed agriculture Crop Area planted Long Term 2021 Long rains Long Term during 2021 Average (5 year) season production Average (5 year) Long rains area planted during (90 kg bags) production during season the Short rains ProjectedActual the Short rains (Ha) season (Ha) season (90 kg bags) Maize 31,083 41,133 466,245 1,028,325 Sorghum 1,676 1,800 12,570 18,000 Beans 15,346 22,505 153,460 450,100 The area planted during the 2021 long rains with maize was 78 percent of the targeted area (Table 2) and this is due to below average rains, the most affected sub- counties are Mogotio, lower parts of Baringo North, Baringo Central, Baringo South and Tiaty. The crops are exhibiting different crop conditions with areas along Tugen hills and upper parts of Eldama Ravine having good crop but the rest of the crop is in poor conditions in other areas of the county. There has been reported infestation by field pests, 21 percent of the area planted was affected by fall army worm, reported in Eldama Ravine, Baringo South and Baringo Central Sub Counties, this was because of the dry conditions. The projected production for maize is expected to be 45 percent of the LTA. The average crop failure in sub-counties are; -10 percent in Eldama Ravine, 70 percent in Mogotio,55 percent in Baringo North, 50 percent in Baringo Central-, 60 percent in Baringo South- and 50 percent of irrigated crop while the county average is 50 percent. The area under sorghum decreased by seven percent as farmers heeded extension advisories on adverse climate. Irrigated crop production Table 3:Irrigated crop production Crop Area Long Term 2021 Long rains Long Term planted Average (3 season Average during years) production (3 years) the 2021 area planted (90 kg production Long during Long bagsMT) during Long rains rains season Projectedactual rains season season (ha) (90 kg bagsMT) Maize 50 44 1000 436 Beans 18 24 216 480 Tomatoes 84 119 1260 2235 Water melons 32 85 480 1700 Seed Maize 2,600 1,524 78,052 57,150 The area under maize was above the LTA by 16 percent and this was attributed to the fact that most farmers who can access irrigation water opted to plant maize in the schemes and by pumping water from rivers (Table 3). This was mainly in three Sub- Counties where there was expansion in acreage under irrigation namely Mogotio, Baringo North and Baringo South. The area under seed maize increased as more schemes were engaged in seed production like Loboi Lorwai irrigation scheme in Baringo South which had continuous supply of water. In other irrigation schemes there was reduced river flows which was caused by depressed rains hence 50 percent crop failure is likely to be observed. Most of the crops in irrigation schemes are for income especially seed maize, water melons and tomatoes. Men are the income earners from the crops but women and youth take care of the crops. But in marketing women undertake the business activities. About 20-40 percent of the potential acreage for irrigation was not utilized due to low water flows from the rivers. Cereal stocks Table 4:Cereal stocks Commodity Maize Rice Sorghum Green grams Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Households 302,458 290,864 - - 617 468 503 620 Traders 45,893 34,928 2,087 1,056 215 326 130 150 Millers 12,362 8,382 - - - - - - Food - - - - - - - - AidNCPB Totals 360,713 334,174 2,087 1,056 832 794 633 770 The stock held by households is within the LTA (Table 4) and this is due to the carry over stocks from last years harvest which was very good. The bulk of the stock is in Eldama Ravine sub- ccounty at 60 percent whereby they didnt have avenue for stock disposal such as National Cereal and Produce Board. Most farmers in other areas depleted their stocks as they bought inputs for the delayed long rains, in a normal year by now most of the maize crop would be in milkygrain filling stage and beans being harvested, this year most of crops are at vegetative stage and permanent wilting stage. The traders also had their stock 31 percent above the LTA due to replenishment of their stocks in speculation of price increase following the poor performance of the long rains season. In the affected areas, price of cereals has gone up thus straining the families economically. About 50 percent of households depend on the markets for their food supply, most of them from Pastoral, Agro pastoral and Irrigated livelihood zones while few are from Mixed farming livelihood zone. The increase in food prices has also influenced the increase in stocks by traders as compared to last year when the prices were relatively low. The local millers stocks are higher than the LTA by 47 percent. This is because most households are purchasing maize flour directly from the small millers (Posho Millers) and also the anticipated looming crop failure plus increase in cereal prices which is good for millers and traders. Traders and millers have more stocks in the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones as the community depends entirely on markets. In a normal year the stocks are expected to last for five to six months until the next crop harvest, the available stocks are expected to last for two months in the Mixed farming livelihood zone against a normal of four months, while in Agro pastoral livelihood zone, the stocks may last for one to three months. The county has not experienced food safety issues that include aflatoxin and high moisture content levels. Livestock production The main livestock species in Baringo County include; cattle, goats, sheep, hived honeybees, poultry and camels. The government has put in effort to promote rabbit farming. Lactating camels are known to provide milk even in dry periods and can form good protein source during the dry period. The camel can be good livelihood asset, if spread among pastoral households. The long rains in Baringo County are very important for pasture and fodder production. Agricultural by- products, namely, maize stalks, maize cobs, sorghum, millet straw and the legume by products are conserved for future use. These by-products are important for their utilization during dry period and hence supplement strategic feed reserves in the ASAL wards of the county. The table below (Table 5) shows the significance of livestock production to food and income. Table 5: Contribution of livestock to food and income Livelihood zone contribution Food Income Mixed farming 25 23 Irrigated cropping 25 8 Agro-pastoral 20 50 Pastoral 21 88 Pasture and browse condition The present forage condition and expected duration to last is driven by the effects of the long and off-season rains. Cumulatively, there was a poor performance of both the short rains and the long rains seasons leading to decline in forage quantity and quality. The pastures are expected to last for three months in Mixed and Irrigated Cropping Livelihood Zones which is normal and 2.5 months in Agro-Pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood Zones against a normal of three months (Table Locust invasions affected pasture production in Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South and Baringo Central. The hotspots include; Kolloa, Tirioko, Ribkwo, in Tiaty; Emining and Kisanana in Mogotio; Tenges, in Baringo Central; Mochongoi and Mukutani in Baringo South and Kabartonjo, Saimo Soi, Saimo Kipsaraman and Barwessa in Baringo North. About 30,000 hectares of pasture and browse (less than five percent of forage land) were affected by desert locusts. The desert locust impacts included; destruction of pastures, loss of livestock and decrease in honey production (Through chemical sprays for locust control which affected bee hives). Presently the factors limiting forage access are persistent insecurity tensions caused by banditry attacks around Saimo Soi, Kalabata, Arabal and Kapedo areas. Table 6:Pasture and browse conditions Livelihood Pasture Browse Zone Condition Projected Factors Condition Projected Duration to last limiting Duration to last (Months) access (month) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Good Good 2.5 3 No limit Good Good 3 farming to Fair to fair 3 Irrigated Good Good 2.5 3 No limit Good Good 3 3 cropping to Fair to fair Agro- Fair Good 2 3 No limit Fair Good 2.5 Pastoral Fair to Good 2 3 Insecurity Fair Good 2.5 3 poor tensions Baled hay status Table 7: Baled hay status Livelihood No. of Storage No. of Average Average Comments E.g. Zone Hay Capacity Bales Weight price per percentage held by Stores (Total currently per bale bale farmers and other number being held (in Kgs) (Kshs.) Institutions of bales) Baringo 20 10,500 6,500 15 400 2 are held by KVDA South 88 Held by farmers Baringo 10 20,000 6,000 15 200 30 by farmers and Central 70 by Association. ERavine 30 550,000 250,000 15 150-200 70 by farmers 20 FCS 10 by groups Tiaty 0 0 0 0 0 NA Farmers graze directly but some harvest seeds Baringo 25 280,000 142,000 15 225 100 by farmers from North community stores and traders Mogotio 7 550,000 390,000 15 200 75By farmer groups 25 by individuals There are no commercial SMEs engaged in pasture and fodder production but there are institution doing commercial seed production such as KVDA and RAE TRUST (Table 7). The pasture species being grown is mainly Cenchrus ciliaris. Water for livestock Sources of water for livestock were normal although they had different recharge levels (Table 8). Water pans recharge levels were at 30-50 percent and the situation was below normal. The low levels are attributed to underperformance of long rains and high temperatures and hence high transpiration rates. -The variation in watering frequency is due to availability or lack of water, trekking distance, and insecurity. Table 8:Livestock water sources Livelihood Sources zone Current Normal Mixed farming Rivers, springs, piped water, Streams, Rivers, springs, piped water, boreholes, boreholes, Irrigated Rivers, shallow wells and Rivers, shallow wells and springs. cropping springs. Agro-pastoral Water pans, Boreholes, rivers Streams, water pans, Boreholes Pastoral Bore-holes, water pans. Water-pans, Bore-holes rivers The trekking distance increased as compared to last season and the same time last year (Table 9). The camel performance is barely affected by watering frequency. The adult males and male youth usually water the animals. There is no known effect of Covid 19 on livestock water. However, there is the hazard of the COVID - 19 pandemic occurrence and spike as the lack of health restriction protocols are not followed in watering areas where they converge. Table 9:Return trekking distances, expected duration and watering frequency Livelihood Return trekking Expected duration to Watering frequency zone distances (Kms) last (Months) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed 1-3 1-2.5 Throughout Throughout 1-3 1-2.5 farming Irrigated 1-3 1-2.5 Throughout Throughout 1-3 1-2.5 cropping Agro-pastoral 4-10 4-6 2 3 4-10 4-6 Pastoral 6-12 4-7 2 3 6-12 4-7 Livestock productivity Livestock body condition Despite the underperformance of long and short rains, the cumulative effects of 2019 short rains and 2020 long rains have sustained livestock body condition which is currently fair to good for the big stock and good for the small stock. COVID 19 has not been reported as having affected livestock and hence has no effect on livestock body condition. Birth rate The general birth rates slightly decreased across all livelihood zones, from three to 2.5 percent. The birth rates slightly declined, being attributed to below average pastures across all livelihood zones during the conception and gestation periods. The declined rainfall performance affected all contributing factors including, good nutrition, and increased trekking distance. Tropical livestock unit (TLU) Table 10: Tropical livestock unit Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming 2.8 3 5.8 5.5 Irrigated cropping 2.9 3.5 6.2 6.5 Agro-pastoral 4.4 5 7 7 Pastoral 5.8 6 9 7 Average 4.0 4.5 7 9 The present TLU possession per household which are slightly higher than the last assessment, are attributed by continued good rainfall performance during the 2019 short rains and the 2020 long rains seasons. The average translated to four LTUs in poor households as compared to seven in medium households (Figure 10). The present TLUs are compared to 3.8 in poor and 6.9 in medium income households in the last assessment. There was slight increase in TLUs as compared to last assessment. Milk production, consumption and prices Milk production decreased, leading to increase in milk prices (Table 11). The decrease is attributed by low quality pastures and high temperatures which affected feed conversion efficient of lactating cows. The decrease of milk production compares with last season and LTA. There was decrease in household milk consumption, and increase in milk prices, being attributed to decrease in milk production. Household milk consumption continued being high due to prolonged closure of schools. The closure has been due to restriction brought about by COVID-19 pandemic. Table 11: Milk production, consumption and prices Livelihood Milk production per Milk consumption per Prices (KES) zone household (Litres) household (Litres) Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Mixed Farming 5 8 1.5 5 45 40 Irrigated 5 8 1 5 50 45 Agro-pastoral 2.5 4 1 3 60 50 Pastoral 2 3 0.5 6 75-90 60 Livestock Migration There was minimal internal migration due to available water and insecurity tensions, and cases of floods and swelling of Lake Baringo and Lake Bogoria. There was outward migration to Laikipia, from Churo Amaya and Korossi wards. Livestock migration will likely be minimal as the off- season rains received in the county will impact positively on pasture and water availability. Livestock Diseases and Mortalities There were few disease cases reported as captured in Table 12 which did not warrant quarantine as per spatial occurrence. Vaccination against lumpy skin disease (LSD), CCPP and PPR was done in Tiaty, Baringo North, Baringo South, Baringo Central and Mogotio sub counties. Table 12:Livestock diseases Sub-county Disease Area Reported Livestock Livestock Measures taken lost (Vaccinations) Baringo CCPP Endemic Goats No Vaccinations Central livestock LSD Salawa, Kaptara Cattle Vaccinations deaths FMD Kapkelelwa Cattle No action reported Tiaty CCPP Sub-county wise Goats NR Ring vaccination PPR Sub-countywide Sheep and NR Ring vaccination goats done FMD Kolloa reported but Cattle camels NR No vaccination not significant done LSD Loyamorok, Silale, Cattle NR No vaccination Tirioko done Mogotio PPR Subcounty-wise SheepGoats NR No vaccination CCPP Subcounty-wise Goats NR No vaccination Anthrax Kiptoim Cattle NR No vaccination FMD Rosogaa, Lombala, Cattle NR No vaccination Kapcheluguny, done Eldama FMD Koibatek Cattle Suspected No vaccination Ravine done Rabies Ravine, Perkerra, cattle 9 cases No vaccination Lembus Kwen done ECF ,Ravine cattle 1 case No vaccination Baringo south CCPP Nyimbei Goats 20 9,640 LSD Marigat, Loboi, Cattle No vaccination Salabani done Baringo north CCPP Sub-countywide Goats No deaths Ring vaccination (Endemic) done PPR No reports Shoats No deaths None vaccinated LSD Poi, Rondinin Cattle 10 deaths Vaccination not yet planned. Rabies All wards dogs No deaths 170 vaccinated Impact on availability The County has adequate maize stocks that should be able to sustain households for at least two months from now while pulses availability is not adequate in meeting the needs of the households for now. The projected yield for both maize and pulses is below LTA thus the county will have to depend on supplies from outside the county to meet the demand. Milk production is below LTA and therefore it is affecting household milk consumption while the deficit has to be taken care of through purchasing in the local markets. TLU are below normal but are recovering progressively while livestock body condition is fair to good. 3.2 Access Market operations The main markets for livestock in the county include Kipsaraman, Barwessa, Loruk and Kinyach in Baringo North; Kolloa, Nginyang, Tangulbei and Amaya in Tiaty; Marigat, Kabel in Baringo South; Kaptara in Baringo Central; Majimoto, and Emining in Mogotio and lastly, Iloti, Kapchorua and Kapcholoi in Eldama Ravine sub-counties. Other than in Pastoral areas where there were depressed market operations due to insecurity challenges, the rest of the county experienced near normal market operations. COVID -19 pandemic has also affected market operations especially for livestock whereby livestock movement is normally preferred at night but due to curfew this is no longer possible. The main livestock market of Nginyang in Tiaty sub county remained non- operational from early this year until July when it was reopened following an improvement in the security situation. Apart from the pastoral markets and more so in Tiaty sub county, the rest of the markets in the county were well stocked with commodities while the numbers of market players were normal. In the Pastoral areas, livestock prices were depressed and there were fewer market players compared to normal due to movement restrictions resulting from the ongoing security operations. In the Mixed and Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zones, there were less cereals in the market with even fewer buyers and this was due to low cereal demand as households are still keeping carry-over stocks from the previous long rains season. Market prices Maize prices The average maize prices were relatively 50.00 stable in July compared to the H previous month at S K 30.00 Ksh 46kg (Figure 3). s The prices were e 20.00 ir below the long-term p 10.00 average at this time ia 0.00 of the year by 4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec percent. The stability in maize prices can be attributed to availability of maize Figure 3:Maize prices stocks at the household level in the Mixed farming livelihood zone especially in Eldama Ravine sub county. Pastoral livelihood zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh.47 per kg while irrigated livelihood zone recorded the lowest at Ksh.40 per kg Goat prices The average price of a medium sized goat by July was stable at . Ksh.2,675, as s 2500 K compared to the s 2000 previous month at c ir 1500 Ksh. 2,646 (Figure t 1000 4). The price was o above the short-term G 500 average (STA) by 0 four percent. The prices were highest in Irrigated cropping livelihood zone at Figure 4:Goat prices Ksh. 3,833 and lowest in Agro pastoral livelihood zone at Ksh.2,000. The stability in price was as a result of stable livestock body condition 3.2.2 Terms of trade The terms of trade were at 80.00 59 by July, an 70.00 increase of e four percent la 60.00 in comparison m 50.00 to the r f 40.00 previous ht ga 30.00 month u oo g whereby a b a 20.00 e f o sale of one z ia 10.00 goat was able m to fetch 57 kgs f o of maize g (Figure 5). STA 2021 This has been attributed to Figure 5:Terms of trade relatively stable maize prices and slight increase in goat prices. The current terms of trade are better in comparison to the long-term average. Irrigated cropping livelihood zone had the highest terms of trade of 88 while Agro pastoral livelihood zone had the least at 52. 3.2.3 Income sources The main sources of cash income are varied across the livelihood zones key among them being livestock production, cash crop production, casual waged labour among others as illustrated in table 13 below. Table 13: Income sources Sources of Income Contribution to Cash Income per Livelihood Zone () Pastoral LZ Agro-pastoral Irrigated LZ Mixed LZ Farming LZ Livestock Production 88 50 5 23 Food Crop Production - 4 5 5 Cash crop production - - 59 30 Small Business 1 4 5 7 Casual Waged Labour 1 15 10 20 Formal Waged Labour 1 5 4 5 Poultry Production 2 5 3 1 Fishing - 10 4 - 3.2.4 Water access and availability Major water sources The main water sources for both domestic and livestock use include; Water Sources For Baringo County water pans, rivers, dams, lakes, - July 2021 streamssprings, shallow wells and 7 12 boreholes (Figure 6)). Most of these Boreholes sources are concentrated in the Mixed Farming Livelihood Zones where it receives more rainfall than in Pastoral 29 Rivers and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones. Water is more accessible in mixed 12 Pans Dams farming and irrigated farming livelihood zones than in pastoral livelihood zone where its poorly served Figure 6:Water sources by rivers. Over 70 percent of the boreholes in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones are operational while the rest are not due to electro-mechanical breakdowns (Table 14). These boreholes include; Akorayan, Ngaratuko, chepkalacha among others. Water quality challenges were experienced in some boreholes in Kinyach area in Bartabwa ward, Taimon and Sibilo sub-locations in Saimo-Soi ward and areas of Baringo south which rendered the boreholes non -operational as they contained high fluoride levels. Table 14:Water sources Ward Water No. of No. of Projected Normal Current Livelihood Source Normal Current Duration Duration Water zone (Three (3) Operational Operational (Operational that Level in major Sources Sources) Water of Full sources) Last in Capacity Months after Recharged by the Rains Pastoral Boreholes 96 90 6 months Over 6 Over 30 Water pan 78 72 2 months 2-3 30-50 Rivers 6 4 2 months 4-5 30-50 Agro- Boreholes 66 61 6 months Over 6 Over 40 Pastoral months Water 28 28 2 months 3-4 30-40 pans months springs 25 25 2months 4-5 30-40 Mixed Boreholes 44 44 6 months Over 6 Over 50 Farming months streams 36 36 2-3 months Over 6 60-70 springs 155 155 2-4 months Over 6 60-70 Irrigated Rivers 6 4 2 months Over 6 30-50 Shallow 10 10 1-2 months 3-4 30-50 wells months swamps 3 3 1-2 months Over 6 30-50 The households using protected water sources are at 60 percent. Water in open sources is free while in protected sources the cost is stable at ksh.3 -5 but the final cost will depend on transport cost of the water to the households. The cost of a 20-litre jerry can cost ksh.20-50 depending on the destination of water and that 20 percent of households rely entirely on water venders for domestic use. These are areas of Kisanana and Emining wards, lower part of Saimo-Soi ward at Akorayan and Loruk sub-locations. The reasons for relying on vendors are long travelling distances to water sources, limited available protected water sources, unavailable water sources and poor quality of water in some water sources. COVID-19 regulations of frequent washing of hands is not observed due to high cost of water in these households. The most concentrated water points were found in the Pastoral and Agro-pastoral Livelihood Zones where water sources are limited (Table 15). These sources get congested when there is breakdown of the nearby water points and also when the other water sources have been depleted. The congestion at water sources can increase the spread of COVID- 19 pandemic amongst the community members. By ensuring optimum operation of water facilities will reduce congestion at water sources hence spread of COVID-19 will be reduced amongst community members. Table 15: Most concentrated water points Ward Actual Name Normal Current Reason(s) for Variation Livelihood of the Water No. of No. of zone Point households households Served being Served Pastoral Ngoswe 220 500 Mechanical breakdown of borehole Ngaratuko and Namba boreholes Chepkewel 250 600 It is the only available water borehole source with good quality water. There are electro-mechanical breakdowns of Kipchemoi borehole Kapkun 200 450 Breakdown of Mangar intake Endao 1200 2300 It has high yield with good quality borehole water. Other nearby sources have dried up Lelen borehole 1800 2500 Is the only available source which is operational in the area Mixed Mochongoi 600 1250 -Mechanical breakdown of farming borehole Manwari borehole Water Accessibility and Utilization According to Table 16, the average distances to domestic water sources were above normal for all livelihood zones but is projected to reduce significantly due to the on- going off season rains while cost of water remained normal. There was no waiting time for all open water sources in all livelihood zones whereas in Pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihood zones waiting time increased due to the long queues in the concentrated water points. Water consumption per person per day reduced in all livelihood zones and this was attributed by the limited water sources but is projected to increase slightly with the on-going rains. Table 16:Water return distances, cost, waiting time and consumption Ward Return Cost of water at Waiting Time at Average Water livelihood Distances to source (ksh.per Source(minutes) consumption per zone Water for 20litrs) person per day Domestic use (Litrespersonday) Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Pastoral 5-6 6-7 3-5 3-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 10-15 Agro- 2-3 4-5 3-5 3-5 2-5 5-10 15-20 10-15 Mixed 1-2 2-4 3-5 3-5 0-1 1-5 20-25 15-20 Farming Irrigated 1-2 2-4 3-5 3-5 0-1 10-15 20-25 15-20 3.2.5 Food consumption Food Consumption Score P P r P P r P P r P P r P P r g e g e g e g e g e A t A t A t A t A t a a a a a g g g g g ir ir ir ir ir r r r r r I IPoor Borderline IAcceptable I I Figure 7: Food consumption score According to sentinel site data from the NDMA early warning system (EWS) for the months of July, the Pastoral livelihood zone had a significant proportion of households with a borderline and poor food consumption score and was consistent for the last four months (Figure 7). This was contributed by inadequate access to nutritious food stuffs due to the existing low purchasing power of the households among other factors. In the Irrigated cropping and Agro pastoral livelihood zones, all households have acceptable food consumption score because of availability of adequate cereal stocks carried over from the long rains season of 2020. Income emanating from sale of seed maize in Irrigated cropping zone also contributed in maintaining acceptable food consumption score. 3.2.6 Coping strategy Fishing Irrigated Agro pastoral Pastoral Figure 8: Coping strategy index Households in Agro Pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood Zones employed more coping strategies at 19 and 15 respectively, and this was partly due to low purchasing power caused by less normal market operations caused by conflict and COVID-19 pandemic (Figure 8). In the Irrigated cropping livelihood zone, households applied fewer coping strategies. 3.3 Utilization 3.3.1 Morbidity and mortality patterns Morbidity for children under five URTI Diarrhoea Malaria Figure 9:Morbidity for children under five years of age The three most common diseases are Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) diarrhoea and malaria, which indicates a decline in trend in 2021compared to 2020 among children under the age of five (Figure 9). The decrease in malaria could be attributed to mass net distribution while decrease in diarrheal diseases could be attributed to promotion of hand washing in COVID-19 intervention measures Morbidity for General Population URTI Diarrhea Malaria Jan June 2021 Jan June 2020 Figure 10:Morbidity for general population As indicated in Figure 10, general population showed a slight increase in URTI and mmalaria cases in 2021 compared to the previous year. This could be attributed to poor adherence to COVID-19 measures and adults not making use of the recent distributed mosquito nets respectively. 3.3.2 Immunization and vitamin A supplementation Vitamin A supplementation 120.00 100.00 90.10 80.00 69.65 20.00 6-11 Months 12-59 Momth Figure 11: Vitamin A supplementation Vitamin A coverage for the county between January and June 2021 compared to the same period 2020 indicate an increase in Vitamin A supplementation (Figure 11). The increase in Vitamin A coverage for children 6-11 and 12-59 months can be attributed to Malezi Bora activities and Measles campaign that were undertaken recently. Immunization immunization coverage between January and June Jan June 2021 98.8 2021 increased to 106 percent, an Jan June 2020 increase of 7.2 Jan June 2021 percent up from Jan June 2020 106 98.8 percent compared to same period in 2020 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 (Figure 12). The 106 percent Figure 12: Immunization coverage coverage remained above the national target of 80 percent. The increase in coverage for fully immunised children could be attributed to the just concluded Measles Reubella campaign as well as poor age estimates because child health cards were not being used, a factor that could have led to capturing of over age children. 3.3.3 Nutritional status and dietary diversity Outpatient Therapeutic Feeding and Supplementary Feeding New admissions Outpatient Therapeutic Feeding OTP 350 140 300 120 250 100 200 80 150 60 100 40 50 20 Jan June 2018 Jan June 2019 Jan June 2020 Jan June 2021 Figure 13:Therapeutic feeding New Outpatient Therapeutic Program admissions increased from January reaching its highest in March and dropped to its lowest in the month of May and started increasing and maintained an upward trend (Figure 12). This is attributed to availability of therapeutic feeds CHANIS Data (0-59 months underweight) 7 6.3 4.7 4.6 5 4.3 Figure 14:Percentage of underweight children under 5 years Figure 13 indicates percentage of underweight by CHANIS whereby there was lower trend in 2021 compared to 2020 same period though it follows almost the same trend (Figure 13). This could be attributed to stock out of nutrition commodities such as CSB in the year 2021. Mid upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) 5 6.0 4.0 M 2.0 Normal LTA 2021 Figure 15. Proportion of children at risk of malnutrition measured by Family MUAC The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition has been on an increasing trend since February with a slight decrease in June 2021. The steady increase in the rate from January could be attributed to continuous depletion of food stocks and low milk availability during dry spell. SMART survey findings According to the SMART survey findings of July 2021 conducted in Tiaty sub county (Pastoral livelihood zone), the global acute malnutrition (GAM) was critical at 24.4 percent while severe acute malnutrition was at 3.9 percent. Stunting and underweight prevalence was very at 40.7 and 44.1 percent respectively while GAM by MUAC was critical at 9.8 percent. 3.3.4 Health and nutrition sector in COVID-19 context Currently most clients are utilizing public health facilities and the fear of COVID-19 has reduced among the community members. The number of supported outreach services have reduced due to security operation in Tiaty and lack of partner support in the six sub counties. The community health volunteers are applying the use of family MUAC tapes in assessing nutritional status of children under five years of age. At the moment, the Corn Soy Blend CSB is out of stock in all the sub counties. 3.3.5 Public interventions, risk communication and community level actions The county has ensured that there are hand washing facilities in most of the public places including markets, supermarkets and kkiosks while the use of liky tins have been promoted by health workers and reinforced by public health officers. Most health workers have been supplied with essential supplies such as masks, sanitizers, hand washing facilities among others. The community engagement and messaging are carried out at the health facilities and use of local FM radio stations. From observations during the transect drive on adherence it was found that there is laxity in adherence to the COVID -19 protocols at the moment due to emerging beliefs and other issues that negatively affect control and prevention measures. Currently there are no social safety net programs. 3.3.6 Coordination and leadership in COVID-19 pandemic preparedness and response The County has a functional nutrition technical forum which meets on quarterly basis, however the sub county nutrition technical forums are not functional apart from the one in Tiaty where the meeting is held once in a while. During the nutrition technical forum, the impact of COVID- 19 and nutrition programming are usually discussed. Nutrition team is involved in carrying out follow up and counselling of patient with lifestyle diseases and sensitizing communities through mother to mother support groups on COVID-19. 3.3.7 Sanitation and hygiene Interviews with the focused group discussions during the transect drive, majority of the households were not accessing their water from the protected sources (Table 17). Table 17: Protected water sources Water source Proportion of Protectedunprotected households in Bore holes 20 protected Rain water 10 Protected (Water tanks) Shallow wells 10 unprotected Rivers 20 unprotected Water vendors 30 protected Water springs 10 unprotected Water storage and treatment About 95 percent of households store water in Jerri cans, while only 60 percent cover their water ccontainers with lids. Some of the chemicals used in treating water include chlorine, water guard, aqua tabs and PUR. Interviews with the communities during the transect drive indicates that about 30 percent of the households were boiling their water, 20 percent were doing filtration while 50 percent were not treating their water by any means. Majority of the households carry water on their backs (human carriage) for those getting from rivers, shallow wells and water springs, while majority of those getting from water vendors use motor cycles and water tracks to transport water. There are high cases of diarrheal diseases amongst children below five years of age and this was reported in all sites visited during the transect drive. Hand washing at all 4 critical times After taking children to the toilet 97.1 Before eating 84.6 Before cooking 41.7 40.4 After toilet 19.8 2021 2019 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 Figure 16: Hand washing practices According to the SMART survey findings of July 2021 done in Tiaty sub county, about 54 percent of the respondents were aware of the hand washing practices. For those who did hand washing, the majority did it before eating at 97.1 percent (Figure 15). Generally, hand washing practices have gone up compared to the last survey of 2019 and this was due to the impact of COVID 19 pandemic. The possible sources of contamination include river Chemususu Lokoiywa River in Baringo Central- (Sewage waste from nearby school). This has led to increase in diarrheal diseases and there has not been any intervention done but the case has been reported to county public health officials. In Loboi and Bekibon areas, there were high cases of diarrheal diseases being reported and this was attributed to water contamination by human waste. Majority of the households have knowledge on critical points where they practice hand washing after visiting toilet, before breastfeeding, before cooking, before eating.and after changing baby diapers. Latrine coverage latrine coverage is 90 about 42 percent with 80 Eldama Ravine sub 70 county having the 60 highest latrine 50 coverage at 78 percent 40 while areas in Pastoral 30 livelihood zone such 20 as Tiaty sub county 10 having the lowest 0 Eldama Baringo Baringo Mogotio Baringo Tiaty latrine coverage of Ravine Central South North less than five percent and thus practice open Figure 17: Latrine coverage defecation (Figure 17). 3.4 Trends of key food security indicators Table 18: Food security indicators Indicator Short rains assessment, Long rains assessment, July, 2021 January, 2021 of maize stocks held by 84 104 households Livestock body condition Agro Pastoral Good-Fair Agro Pastoral Good to Fair (Cattle) Irrigated cropping Good Irrigated cropping Good Mixed Farming Good Mixed Farming Good Pastoral-all species Fair Pastoral-all species Fair to good Water consumption (litres Agro Pastoral 15-25 Agro Pastoral 10-15 per person per day Irrigated cropping 20-25 Irrigated cropping 15-20 Mixed Farming 20-25 Mixed Farming 15-20 Pastoral-all species 12-15 Pastoral-all species 10-15 Price of maize (per kg) 40 46 Distance to grazing Agro Pastoral 4-9 Agro Pastoral 4-10 Irrigated cropping 1-3 Irrigated cropping 1-3 Mixed Farming 1-3 Mixed Farming 1-3 Pastoral-all species 4-10 Pastoral-all species 6-10 Terms of trade (pastoral 75 59 zone) Coping strategy index County-13 County-13 Agro Pastoral-17 Agro Pastoral-19 Pastoral-13 Pastoral-15 Irrigated Cropping-4 Irrigated Cropping-3 Food consumption score Acceptable 72.9 Acceptable 69 Borderline 25.2 Borderline 29 Poor 1.9 Poor 2 3.5 Education 3.5.1 Enrolment Baringo comprises of 990 ECDE centres with an enrolment of 48,753 children, 729 primary schools with 136,308 pupils and 179 secondary schools with a combined enrolment of 44,662 students. There was a decline in enrolment at all levels of learning. A decline of 1.3 percent in enrolment was noted in ECDE while pprimary and secondary sections dropped by 1.4 and 9.2 percent respectively. This was attributed to by insecurity challenges in Pastoral areas, drought, lack of school fees as some parents were rendered jobless due to COVID-19 pandemic, early marriages, teen pregnancies, child labour in irrigated tomato farms and bodaboda riding. As at July 2021, grade 4 learners and class 8 are on hold till 25th, July 2021 when they will transit to the next level of grade 5 and Form 1 respectively. 3.5.2 Effects of COVID-19 in schools Due to effects of COVID-19, the schools are in term 3 of 2020 calendar from 10th May 2021 to 16th, July 2021 which usually was from September to November every year and this is confusing both the learners, parents and the community. Many livelihoods were affected more so in the hospitality industry, transport and other key sectors that resulted in job losses and income thus affecting payment of school fees by parents. Urban Rural migration due to economic hardships led to some decline of enrolment in urban schools compared to rural schools. No digital learning took place in all the sampled schools in Baringo while child labour cases rose along river Molo and River Perkerra where there are a lot of irrigation activities that requires labour. Rise in cases of early marriages and teen pregnancies was observed whereby up to about 20-40 percent of the sampled households reported being affected by teen pregnancies. Increased cultural practices and rites of passage such as circumcision, FGM were also observed. 3.5.3 Effects of long rains in schools There were no damages reported on any school infrastructure emanating from the long rains season. However, the poor performance of the season was associated with decline in enrolment of students mostly in the pastoral areas. 3.5.4 School feeding Baringo is listed among the 23 ASAL areas in Kenya and benefits from the national government funding for Regular School Meals Programme (RSMP) through the ministry of education (MOE). The following sub counties are directly supplied with school meals; Baringo North all 153 primary schools, Marigat 108, East Tiaty 58, West Tiaty 78 and Baringo Central 34 primary school (Table 19). A total of 46,803 boys and 41,994 girls are fed in the county. Table 19:School feeding Sub Counties No. Of HGSMPLRPNON RSMP Total No. of Schools LRP Beneficiaries Boys Girls Boys Girls Boys Girls Baringo 34 3,392 3,340 0 0 3,392 3,340 Central Mogotio 107 10,928 10,165 0 0 10,928 10,165 Baringo South 108 12,708 12,169 0 0 12,708 12,169 Eldama Ravine 108 0 0 0 0 0 0 Baringo North 153 12,275 11,546 0 0 12,275 11,546 Tiaty 116 7,500 4,774 0 0 7,500 4,774 Sub Total 627 46,803 41,994 0 0 46,803 41,994 Total 88,797 0 88,797 3.5.3 Inter sector links The department of Health Services is planning to give vitamin A tablets to all the children under five years and deworm them while the department of water has procured hand washing containers for 367 ECDE centers. Some schools procured thermo guns using the money from national government. Girls in all the primary schools who required dignity kits did receive them free of charge and in the sampled schools during the assessment, it was observed that there were adequate stocks to last for one year. There was a challenge when girls were at home for the long holiday periods and were therefore not able to access the pads. Schools are being encouraged to have income generating activities (IGAs). Measles and rubella vaccines were administered to all learners aged 1-5 years and funded by ministry of health (MOH) and UNICEF 4.0 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS 4.1 Prognosis assumption According to FEWSNET seasonal forecast review of June 2021, based on the NMME and WMO forecasts, the October-December 2021 short rains season in Kenya is most likely to be below-average. However, the Meteorological department of Kenya has forecasted above normal off-season rains in July through to August in Baringo County. The security situation in the Pastoral areas is likely to stabilize following the ongoing security operations and consequently lead to resumption of normal market operations. Peace building efforts are paying off as some of the markets have been reopened for operation. Despite the ongoing vaccination drive, a limited vaccine supply is expected to slow down vaccination rates. COVID-19 related restrictions are likely to remain in place through at least the first half of the scenario period, impacting household income and food access significantly. However, some of these restrictions are expected to be lifted in October as vaccination rates increase and boost the economy to improve household income-earning opportunities and food security. Due to projected reduced cereal yield following the poor performance of the long rains season, household maize stocks are expected to decline significantly after two months from July, rendering most households to rely on markets for cereal access and consequently pushing up maize prices due to increased demand. From the analysis of, livestock prices from the NDMA EWS system, it is anticipated that they are likely to remain depressed in the Pastoral areas for the next one month but are expected to pick up to near normal due to the impact of the off-season July rains and the gradual reopening of the livestock markets. Rejuvenation of rangeland resources is expected to pick up in the next one month following receiving of the off-season rains in July which were fairly good and consequently, livestock body condition is expected to improve to good conditions. The off-season rains are expected to affect water sources positively, therefore improving on water recharge and shortening of water trekking distances to below average levels which should lead to improved water access, availability and utilization. 4.2 Food security outlook for the next six months August-September-October Minimal cases of conflict are expected to persist with the heavy presence of security on the ground is expected to tame a majority of the incidents allowing resumption of market operations in the Pastoral livelihood zone and therefore easing access to food sources. Livestock migration will be minimal as herders are likely to return to their normal grazing sites due to pasture recovery that is likely to take place in August while livestock body condition for the large stock will improve to good conditions. Milk production is expected to improve and increase milk availability at household level. Household maize stocks will remain near normal of LTA during the first month but will tend to decline to below normal by October. Livestock prices are expected to improve marginally mostly in the Pastoral livelihood zone while cereal prices will remain stable in the first two months but are expected to increase as the household stocks gets depleted. Recharge of water sources will be near normal in August but deteriorate towards October during the dry spell and therefore causing a drop in the household water consumption. Food consumption will remain poor in the Pastoral livelihood zone but fairly good in the rest of the county. However, food consumption will improve gradually towards October in the Pastoral livelihood zone as milk production and consumption will be enhanced due to the expected improvement in forage condition caused by the off-season rains of July. Households in Agropastoral and Pastoral livelihood zones are expected to continue employing more coping strategies in accessing food compared to the other livelihood zones due to the prevailing low purchasing power caused by poor market operations. The strategies include reduced number of meals per day, eating of less preferred food and limiting of meal portion size. Malnutrition cases are likely to remain above LTA especially in the Pastoral areas due to below average milk production and consumption. The county will remain in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) phase of food insecurity. November-December-January Due to the projected poor short rains performance, regeneration of forages will be poor and therefore leading to short lived improvement but below average pastures and browse. Recharge of water sources will also be poor leading to less water availability for both human and livestock. Cases of resource-based conflict are therefore likely to be experienced towards January in the Pastoral livelihood zone as communities competes for the scarce water and forage resources. Internal livestock migration will likely be experienced by January in search of pastures and water, a factor that is also likely to trigger more conflict in the known hot spots such as Mukutani ward. Livestock body condition will likely be fair to good for the big stocks but may deteriorate further by January, causing a decline in both milk production and milk consumption. Milk prices will likely shoot up by November and will likely be above LTA by January. The expected deterioration in body condition will cause a decline in livestock prices by January mostly in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones, leading to a reduction of purchasing power for their respective households. Household cereal stocks are expected to be below LTA and will be on a declining trend, triggering cereal price increase, a factor that will lead to worsening of terms of trade more so for the pastoral households. By November, food consumption in the Pastoral livelihood zone is likely to start worsening due to the expected reduction in milk consumption. In the Mixed farming and Marginal mixed farming livelihood zones, food consumption is expected to deteriorate from November following the depletion of carry over maize stocks from the previous long rains season as the current season is not expected to replenish the stocks due to poor rainfall performance. High cereal prices will be a limiting factor on food access thus affecting food consumption adversely across the county. Households in the Pastoral and Agro pastoral livelihood zones are expected to employ same coping strategies in accessing food but those in Mixed farming livelihood zone are likely to apply slightly more coping strategies as a result of dwindling cereal stocks. Nutrition status will be stable but will start to deteriorate by January due to reduced food quantities and quality. The county will be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 5.0 CONCLUSIONS AND INTERVENTIONS 5.1 Conclusions 5.1.1 Phase classification The Pastoral livelihood zone is classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) while the Agro pastoral and Marginal Mixed Livelihood Zones are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The Mixed Farming and the Irrigated Livelihood Zones are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). 5.1.2 Summary of findings The performance of the long rains season was poor and was characterized by late onset and poor temporal and spatial distribution of the rains while cessation was normal. Off season rains were experienced across the county. Significant crop failure was observed in the mixed farming and marginal mixed farming livelihood zones while cases of crop pests involving fall army worms were reported. COVID -19 pandemic is still affecting food security by affecting movements of food commodities due to restrictions that have been put in place by the Government. Cases of insecurity were experienced in the pastoral livelihood zone. The acreage put under rain fed agriculture and the projected yield is below the LTA while household maize stocks are slightly above the LTA. For the irrigated agriculture, both acreage and the projected yield is above the LTA. Forage conditions are fair to good while water sources for livestock are normal and livestock body condition is fair to good. Return water distances were above normal and water consumption per household per day was below normal though this is expected to change due to the impact of the off-season rains. Markets were operating normally except in the Pastoral areas whereby they were affected by insecurity. The most common diseases in both the under five children and the general population are URTI, diarrhea and malaria while Vitamin A coverage has increased compared to last year, a factor that was contributed by measles campaign. Immunization coverage was over 100 percent as a result of the measles campaign while nutrition status in children of under five years of age was stable. The county had acceptable food consumption score although in the Pastoral livelihood zone, there was a significant proportion of households that did not have acceptable food consumption. The pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones were applying more coping strategies compared to the other livelihoods in accessing food. 5.1.3 Sub county ranking Sub County Rank (Worst Main food security threatContributing factors to best) Tiaty (East and West) 1 Poor rainfall Insecurity Poor pastures Market Poor pastures disruptions Locust Livestock Malnutrition diseases Mogotio 2 Poor rainfall Crop pests Poor pastures Livestock Crop failure diseases Baringo North 3 Poor rainfall Crop failure Insecurity Livestock Locust diseases Baringo South 4 Poor rainfall Poor recharge of rivers Baringo Central 5 Poor rainfall Eldama Ravine 6 Poor rainfall Crop paste 5.2 Ongoing interventions Intervention Specific Cost Number of Implementatio Implementatio location beneficiaries n timeframe n stakeholders Male Femal Vitamin A All health 2.2 M 4110 41168 Routine MOH supported supplementatio facilities by UNICEF n and selected Zinc All health 867,00 37,00 38,000 Routine County supplementatio facilities 0 0 department of n health Management of Selected 231 M 52,60 54,892 Routine County acute health 0 department of malnutrition facilities health (IMAM) across the supported by county National Government, IYCN All health 52,60 54,892 County intervention facilities 0 department of (EBF and and health timely intro of communit supported by complementary y units Afya uzazi foods) Iron folate All health Routine County supplementatio facilities department of n among ANC health pregnant supported by women WVK and Deworming All health 33,683 Routine County facilities department of health supported by WVK and Cash transfer County KRCSWFP Mass screening County MOH, KRCS AGRICULTURE Construction of Bartolimo 5 M 1000 HH 2018-2020 BCG grain store Department of agriculture Provision of Baringo 3 M 5000 HH 2020-2021 BCG certified north, Department of affruitation south and agriculture seedlings central Purchase by Baringo 1 M 2500 HH 2021-2022 WFP household north, orange sweet south and potato vines central Soil and water Barwesa 50 M 3000 HH 2 years MOALF management bartabwa MOE wards Farm ponds County- 500 M 10000 HH Continuous Department of development wise irrigation Provision of County- 30 M 800 HH May- June 2021 BCG Galla bucks wise KCSAP and Sahiwal bulls to groups Capacity County- 0.2 M 1200 May- June 2021 BCG strengthening wise WFP to youth groups KCSAP communities on poultry training Provision of Baringo 2 M 200 HH July 2020- BCG pasture seeds south, presently RPLRP 2,500 kgs central, WFP north, Tiaty and Vaccination Baringo 2 M 2000 HH On going BCG against CCPP, north, RPLRP PPR and Partners diseases central surveillance and south Provision of Eravine 500 HH On going BCG pasture Baringo KRCS harvesting central KSCAP tools e.g. Mogotio pasture cutters Baringo and bailing south boxes MEDIUM AND LONG TERM Capacity All sub- 1 M 1000 HH Throughout BCG building of counties MOALF farmers and Partners staff Construction County- 13 M 4,000 HH May 2021 BCG renovation of wise LLACC auction yard Rehabilitation Tiaty 2 M 150 HH Sept 2021 BCG of broken- Partners Rehabilitation Saimo Soi 2 M 280 HH Aug 2021 BCG of boreholes Partners Rehabilitation Baringo 1 M 200 HH May 2021 BCG of Barkibi BH south Partners Supply of Baringo 9114 MOE sanitary kits, central BCG tanks and school meals Supply of Marigat 24877 MOE hand washing BOM tanks and NGOs school meals Parents Improve access Baringo 6821 MOE to schools, north BCG handwashing NGOs tanks and water NG supply Improve access Tiaty East 6021 MOE to schools, BCG tanks, supply NG of water and planting of crops in school farms Supply of Mogotio 24877 MOE Supply of Koibatek 24877 MOE 5.3 Recommended interventions 5.3.1 Food interventions Sub County Food security Main food security Proportion in need rank (Worst to threatContributing of immediate food best) factors assistance () Tiaty 1 Poor rainfall 15-20 Malnutrition Market disruptions Livestock diseases Mogotio 2 Poor rainfall 10-15 Crop pests Baringo North 3 Poor rainfall 10-15 Baringo South 4 Poor rainfall 5-10 Poor recharge of rivers 5.3.2 Non-food interventions Sub Interventio Number of Proposed Require Availabl Time countyWar n beneficiari implementers d e frame d es resource resource County Rapid assessment 150 facilities Intensify KRCS in the county mass screening and referrals KEMSA and county commissioner and KEMSA 45 hot spots Integrated KRCS 1,873,25 Ongoing and hard to outreach 0 reach sites in services 6 sub counties County Smart 1.5 M January- survey July KEMSA support East pokot Smart MOH 1.5 M survey UNICEF Baringo Kibonjos 180 HH BCG 1 M 2 months south BH Partners Mochongoi Rehabilitatio 430 HH BCG 2 M 3 months n of Partners Manwari Mochongoi Chepkoimet 260 HH BCG 2.5 M 4 months BH Partners Marigat Kamonge 450 HH BCG 0.5 M 2 months ward BH Partners Kalabata Spring 500 HH BCG 3 M 3 months protection Partners and pipeline County wide Roof water 5000 HH BCG 5 M 2 harvesting Partners Months structure for institutions County wide equipping of 650 HH BCG 8 M 6 months four Partners Baringo Vaccination 100,000 BCG 2.3 M - August north against LSD, cattle, NG Decembe Mogotio CCPP and 270,000 Development r 2021 Tiaty PPR goats and partners 50,000 sheep Baringo Provision of Tiaty BCG 20 M 0.5 M August pasture Baringo RPLRP Decembe seeds north, south SHAFSKSA r 2021 and central II Mogotio ACTED MEDIUM TERM Baringo Establishme 4 in Tiaty MOALF 90 M - August north and nt of 2 in BCG Decembe south strategic Baringo NDMA r 2021 Tiaty livestock north Partners Mogotio feed 2 in reserves Baringo south Baringo (all Hay 41,500 HH BCG 60 M - August- sub- harvesting RPLRP Decembe counties) and bailing KCSAP r 2021 machinery SHA one per sub WV county FSK Loruk, Renovation 12,000 HH BCG 60 M - August- Amaya, construction Partners Decembe Barwesa and of livestock r 2021 Nginyang auction yard Baringo Provision of 12,242 MOE 6.7 M 2M 3 years central school meals BCG to learners in BOM primary NGOs schools Marigat Avail water 12,041 MOE 10M 1M 5 years water NGOs Baringo Water 3021 MOE 3M 9M Long north harvesting BCG term and supply BOM of water NGOs tanks Tiaty Water 320 MOE 0.6M 0.1M Long harvesting BCG term and water BOM piping to NGOs Nginyang girls Mogotio provision of 12041 MOE 10M 1M 5 years water and BCG water BOM reservoirs NGOs Koibatek Avail water 12041 MOE 10M 1M 5 years water and NGOs water AGRICULTURE SECTOR County wide Increase in 800 MOALF 50 M Technica 1 year provision of l farm inputs personne to farmers l (drought Trained tolerant farmers seeds, planting and top-dressing fertilizers) County wide Post-harvest 20,000 MOALF 10 M Technica 1 year technologies BCG l stuff and Partners promotion