June 2021 Drought indicators Rainfall Performance The month of May 2021 marks the cessation of the Long- Rains over most parts of the country except for the western and Coastal regions according to Kenya Metrological Department. During the month of May 2021, most ASAL counties received over 70 percent of average rainfall except Wajir, Garissa, Kilifi, Lamu, Kwale, Taita taveta and Tana River that received between 25-50 percent of average amounts of rainfall during the month of May as shown in Figure 1. Spatio-temporal rainfall distribution was generally uneven and poor across the ASAL counties. Figure 1 indicates rainfall performance during the month of May as Figure 1.May Rainfall Performance percentage of long term mean(LTM). Rainfall Forecast According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), several parts of the country will be generally dry and sunny during the month of June 2021.Counties in Northwestern Region including Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu are likely to be sunny and dry with occasional rainfall expected from the third week of the month. The expected total rainfall is likely to be near the long-term average amounts for June. Counties in the Coastal strip including Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale will likely receive occasional rainfall that is expected throughout the month. The expected total rainfall is likely to be below the long-term average amounts for June. The Highlands East of the Rift Valley counties including Nyeri, Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are expected to experience occasional cool and cloudy (overcast skies) conditions with occasional light Figure 2.Rainfall forecast morning rainsdrizzles. The expected rainfall amount are likely to be near the long term average for the month of June while the Northeastern Kenya counties including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo and Southeastern lowlands counties including Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta and parts of Kajiado are likely to remain generally sunny and dry. Occasional cool and cloudy conditions are however likely to occur over some counties in southeastern Kenya especially those bordering the central highlands. Figure 3 matches the vegetation condition index (VCI) in May 2020 with that in May 2021.When compared to similar period last year and the long-term average, the current condition of vegetation is considerably below that of May 2020. Figure 3: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2020 and May 2021 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) May Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) May 2020 2021 As at the end of May 2021, counties experiencing vegetation deficit as per vegetation condition index (VCI) included Marsabit, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River, Samburu and Kilifi. The six counties experienced moderate vegetation deficit implying that the VCI values recorded in May 2021 were below normal which indicates that the rains received so far were inadequate and had not brought about vegetation regeneration to the usual ranges for the period in the six counties. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) status as at the end of May 2021 is summarized in Table 1. At sub county level, Rabai, Kilifi south (Kilifi County) and Lagdera (Garissa) recorded the lowest VCI values with the three sub counties currently falling in the extreme deficit band which is attributed to the poor rains received in May 2021 in those particular areas. Generally, the negative VCI trends point to poor regeneration of pasture and browse during the month of May 2021. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), May 2021 Category County Sub Counties (No) Severe (3) vegetation Lagdera (Garissa), Rabai and Kilifi South (Kilifi) deficit Moderate (6) (22) vegetation Marsabit Marsabit (Laisaimis, Saku and North Horr), Wajir (W. deficit Isiolo South, W. Eldas and W. West), Samburu East, Garissa Garissa (Balambala, Dujis, Fafi and Daadab), Isiolo (I. North Tana river and I. South), Tana River (Bura, Galole and Garsen), Samburu Laikipia North, Kitui rural, Kilifi (Ganze, Kaloleni, Kilifi Magarini and Malindi) Normal (7) (41) vegetation Baringo Baringo (B. North, Eldama ravine, Mogotio, B. South, greenness Kitui B. North and Tiaty), Mandera (Banissa, M. East, Lafey, Kwale M. North, M. South and M. West), Turkana (T. East Laikipia and T. North), Marsabit (Moyale), Wajir (W. East, W. Lamu North, W. Tarbaj), Samburu (S. South and S. West), Mandera Garissa (Ijara), Laikipia (L. East, L. west), Tharaka Nithi Wajir (Tharaka), West Pokot (Kacheliba, Sigor), Kitui (K. East, K. South, K. West, Mwingi Central, Mwingi North , Mwingi West), Makueni (Kibwezi West, Makueni), Meru (Igembe North, Tigania East), Kilifi North, Kwale (Kinango, Matuga), Lamu west and Voi. Vegetation (10) (47) greenness Kajiado Turkana (T. Central, T. South, T. West and Loima), above normal Makueni Kajiado (K. Central, K. East, K. North, K. South, K. Narok West) Tharaka Nithi (Chulga and Maara), West Pokot Taita taveta (Kapenguria, Pokot South), Embu (Manyatta, Embu Mbeere North, Mbeere South and Runyenjes), Kitui Nyeri (Kieni) Central, Makueni (Kaiti, Kibwezi East, Kilome and Meru (North) Mbooni), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, Igembe Turkana Central, Igembe South, North Imenti, South Imenti West Pokot and Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Tharaka Nithi Mukurweini, Nyeri town, Othaya and Tetu), Kwale (Lungalunga, Msambweni), Lamu East, Taita Taveta (Mwatate, Taveta and Wundanyi), Narok (N. East, N. West, N. North, N. South, Kilgoris and Emurua Dikirr) Livestock production In nearly all the counties, livestock production related indicators are currently fair compared to normal period. The condition is as result of slight improvement in pasture availability, both in terms of quantity and quality coupled with decrease in distances covered by livestock in search of pasture and water due to current fair water recharge. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair to good conditions except in Isiolo, Lamu, Kilifi, Wajir and Garissa that reported poor pasture condition as shown in Table 2.The current pasture and browse condition has slightly improved as compared to the previous month due to the fair amount of rainfall received during the month of May 2020. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, May 2021 Pasture condition Browse condition Garissa Baringo Embu Garissa Baringo Embu Lamu Kajiado Makueni Isiolo Kilifi Kajiado Marsabit Kitui Taita Taveta Kitui Kwale Wajir Kwale Laikipia Makueni Kilifi Laikipia Lamu Meru Mandera Mandera Narok Meru Marsabit Taita Taveta Narok Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Samburu Turkana Samburu Tana River West Pokot Tana River Wajir Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition is on improving trend as compared to previous month due to improvement in pasture and browse quantity and quality. Overall, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year. Consequently, most counties except Garissa and Marsabit reported livestock body condition as fair to good as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, May 2021 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Embu Baringo Embu Marsabit Kilifi Kajiado Garissa Kajiado Laikipia Kitui Kilifi Kitui Lamu Makueni Kwale Makueni Mandera Meru Laikipia Marsabit Narok Taita Taveta Lamu Meru Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Mandera Taita Taveta Samburu Narok Tharaka Nithi Tana River Nyeri Turkana Samburu Wajir Tana River Isiolo Turkana West Pokot Wajir Milk production Milk production is stable as compared to the previous month however Fourteen (14) counties including;Baringo,Garissa,kajiado,kilifi,Kitui,Kwale,Laikipia,Marsabit,Meru,Nyeri,Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Isiolo and Wajir have milk production below LTA while six(6) counties including Embu, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Samburu and Tana River recorded milk production above LTA. The below normal milk production is attributed to poor rainfall performance for the 2021 long rains season. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, May 2021 Milk Embu Narok Baringo Embu Makueni Baringo Production Lamu Taita Taveta Garissa Kajiado Mandera Garissa Makueni West Pokot Kajiado Kilifi Meru Kitui Mandera Kilifi Kwale Narok Tana River Samburu Kitui Laikipia Samburu Tharaka Nithi Tana River Kwale Lamu Taita Taveta Turkana Laikipia Marsabit Wajir Marsabit Nyeri Meru West Pokot Nyeri Cattle prices In majority of the countys cattle prices are stable and above LTA owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition has improved as compared to the previous month as illustrated in Table 5.The prevailing price is higher than the three-year average price of cattle for the month of May in about 65 percent of the ASAL counties. Mandera and Turkana counties recorded cattle price decrease by 23 and 19 percent respectively as compared to the average mean as shown in Table 4. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, May 2021 or Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Cattle Baringo Mandera Mandera Baringo Lamu Prices Embu Marsabit Nyeri Embu Makueni Garissa Taita Turkana Garissa Nyeri Kajiado Taveta Wajir Kajiado Samburu Kilifi Tana Kilifi Tana River Kitui River Kitui Tharaka Nithi Laikipia Laikipia Makueni Marasabit Meru Meru Narok Narok Samburu Taita Taveta Tharaka Turkana Nithi Wajir West Pokot West Pokot Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trends in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of May , goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were mostly above average or close to LTA except in Wajir and Nyeri counties.The goat prices have slightly increased as compared to the previous month due to improving livestock body condition. Table 6.0: Goat prices, May 2021 or Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Goat Baringo Lamu Nyeri Garissa Baringo Kajiado Prices Embu Marsabit Wajir Kilifi Embu Kwale Garissa Tana Mandera Kitui Makueni Kajiado River Marsabit Laikipia Meru Kilifi Tharaka Samburu Lamu Tana River Kitui Nithi Turkana Narok Tharaka Nithi Kwale Turkana Nyeri Laikipia Isiolo Taita Taveta Makueni Wajir Mandera West Pokot March to May (MAM) long rains season were on-going across the marginal agricultural areas during the month of May and most crops planted are tusslingknee high stage with poor condition due to moisture stress as result of depressed rains. Kilifi and Kitui counties have reported poor crop condition.The late onset of the MAM rainfall season is likely to impact negatively on agricultural activities in most semi-arid counties. Consequently, farmers have been advised to plant fast-maturing crops and drought tolerant crops in areas expected to receive below-average rainfall. Maize prices In most counties the price of maize remained stable in May as compared to the previous month. As demonstrated in Table 7, the current maize prices are largely favourable with 12 counties recording prices that are below or close LTA however the prices of maize are increasing and thus require close monitoring.Garissa,Nyeri,Taita taveta,Wajir and Isiolo have maize prices above LTA. Table 7.0: Maize prices, May 2021 Indicato Current status Trend r Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsenin to LTA g Maize Garissa Kajiado Baringo Kajiado Baringo Tana Prices Nyeri Makueni Embu Laikipia Embu River Taita Taveta Mandera Kilifi Garissa Wajir Marsabit Kitui Kilifi Isiolo Samburu Kwale Kitui Turkana Laikipia Kwale Lamu Lamu Meru Makueni Narok Mandera Tana River Marsabit Tharaka Meru Nithi Narok West Nyeri Pokot Samburu Nithi Access to water for households In comparison to the long term average, 18 counties distances to water for households is currently above the LTA .In comparison with the previous month, there is slight improvement in reduction of distance to household water source.The slight improvement in the average distances to water points for households was occasioned by the rains received during the month of May 2021 however the delayed short rains onset of the MAM season is the reason behind the above LTA trekking distances. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, May 2021. Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improvin Stable Worseni Distance Embu Baringo Kitui Baringo Garissa Lamu from Garissa Wajir Nyeri Embu Kajiado Tana households Kajiado Tharaka Kwale Kilifi river to main Kilifi Nithi Laikipia Kitui water Kwale Marsabit Makueni sources Laikipia Meru Mandera Lamu Nyeri Narok Makueni Samburu Taita Taveta Mandera Turkana Tharaka Marsabit Wajir Nithi Meru West Narok Pokot West pokot Access to water for livestock The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is presented in Table 9. Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is stable and improving across the counties. In addition, access to water for livestock in 14 counties was above long- term average attributed to the poor performance of the March April May (MAM) long rains season as shown in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, May 2021 Above At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsenin LTA g Distance BaringoIsi Kajiado Kitui Baringo Embu Garissa from oloIII Marsabi Samburu Kwale Kajiado Kilifi livestock Embu t Laikipia Narok Kitui grazing area GarissaI Meru Marsabit Lamu to main Kilifi Taita Meru Makueni water Kwale Taveta Nyeri Tana sources Laikipia Tharaka Samburu River Lamu Nithi Taita Taveta Tharaka Makueni Wajir Turkana Nithi Mandera West West Pokot Wajir Narok Pokot Mandera Nyeri Isiolo Terms of trade Table 10 shows the trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative price of goats and maize in ASAL counties. In all counties except Nyeri(kieni), ToT values are above the long-term average (LTA). The TOT is stable as compared to the previous month for instance, in Kajiado, Garissa, Kilifi, Tana River, the current ToT are higher than the 2016 - 2020 average for May by 56, 40, 52, 36 percent respectively. The relatively favorable situation for livestock keepers in these ASAL counties was attributed to high goat prices while maize prices has remained fairly stable. On the other hand, terms of trade were unfavorable in Nyeri(Kieni) county where the current ToT was lower than the long-term average for May by 33 percent attributed to decrease in the sheep prices as a result of a downward shift in the body condition of goats, increase in volumes of livestock offered for sale and also a general increase in maize prices. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, May 2021 or Above At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening LTA LTA Terms Baringo Taita Taveta Nyeri Kilifi Baringo Embu of Embu Tharaka Mandera Garissa Kajiado trade Garissa Nithi Marsabit Kitui Kwale (ToT) Kajiado Samburu Lamu Laikipia Kilifi Turkana Makueni Nyeri Kitui Wajir Meru Tharaka Kwale Narok Nithi Laikipia Taita Lamu Taveta Makueni Tana Mandera River Marsabit West Meru Pokot River Pokot Health and nutrition Table 11 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. As compared to the previous month,the trend of MUAC has remained stable and on improving trend however the following counties namely; Mandera,Tana River,Marsabit Turkana and have MUAC above long term average.The observed above long term negative trend in malnutrition of the five counties was attributed to reduced milk consumption owing to decrease in milk production and fewer number of integrated health outreaches delivering essential nutrition services. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), May 2021 Baringo Embu Isiolo Mandera Kilifi Laikipia Kitui Kajiado MUAC Kwale Nyeri Kwale Kilifi Tana River Makueni Samburu Laikipia Marsabit Meru Wajir Lamu Meru Marsabit Narok West Makueni Nyeri Tharaka- pokot Mandera Baringo Turkana Nithi Kitui Taita Garissa Embu Kajiado Taveta Narok Isiolo Lamu Taita Tharaka- Samburu taveta Nithi Wajir Garissa Turkana West pokot Drought phase classification Table 12 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at end of May 2021 On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, Eleven (11) counties; Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Samburu, Kitui ,Isiolo and Laikipia are in the alert drought phase and thus twelve(12) counties including; Nyeri, West Pokot, Baringo, Embu, Kajiado, Kwale, Meru, Narok, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana and Makueni are in Normal drought phase. During the month under review, Four (4) counties reported improving trend, Twelve (12) counties recorded stable trend while seven (7) counties reported a worsening trend. The slight improvement is as result of the rains received during the month of May 2021 Table 12.0: Drought phase classification, May 2021 Drought Trend status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Nyeri Baringo Makueni West Pokot Embu Kajiado Kwale Alert Lamu Laikipia Garissa Mandera Marsabit Kilifi Wajir Kitui Alarm Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought stress. Livestock sector Provision of livestock feeds and supplements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Support water trucking interventions. Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of fuel subsidies to motorized boreholes Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 13: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 30th May 2021 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS BARINGO County The entire county and its sub counties recorded normal vegetation greenness in 40.09 45.9 the month of May. This is attributed the ongoing MAM rainfall. Interestingly, 40.81 43.91 Mogotio subcounty has improved from Moderate vegetation deficit to Normal Eldama vegetation greenness. 43.51 49.44 Mogotio 34.9 38.31 North 36.17 49.57 South 41.17 46.43 Tiaty 41.17 46.0 MANDERA County The county and its sub counties are in Normal vegetation greenness in the 34.28 49.57 month of May. There was absolute improvement in the entire county form Banissa 29.89 49.93 Severe vegetation deficit to Normal vegetation greenness due to ongoing MAM M East rainfall. 23.1 35.55 Lafey 29.26 42.47 M North 32.93 52.16 M South 42.67 53.05 M West 36.88 52.96 TURKANA County The county is in improvement in VCI for the county and four of its sub counties 49.23 51.82 having recorded Above Normal vegetation greenness in the month of May. T Central 67.75 57.36 Turkana North and East recorded Normal vegetation greenness. T. East 37.97 38.79 T. Loima 60.58 61.91 T. North 36.1 41.86 T. South 55.79 58.83 T. West 56.96 62.52 MARSABIT County The county and two of its sub counties remained at moderate vegetation deficit 33.75 32.57 band. Moyale and Saku sub-counties were stable at normal vegetation Laisaimis 31 25.01 greenness. This is due to small warm humid micro-climate within Saku hills and MAM seasonal onset in Moyale. Moyale 37.68 48.59 N. Horr 34.15 32.79 36.44 32.01 WAJIR County The county improved to Normal vegetation greenness in the month of May from 30.97 36.66 the previous month of April. W East 33.46 40.39 W. Eldas 26.08 32.13 W. North 42.99 49.81 W. South 27.9 30.5 W. Tarbaj 36.17 45.5 W West 21.38 29.86 SAMBURU County The county remained stable at Normal vegetation greenness in the month under 36.21 33.83 review when compared to last month of April. Samburu East remained in S East 27.91 27.57 Moderate vegetation deficit band. S. North 43.82 38.93 S. West 43.79 41.81 ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS GARISSA County The county and its Sub counties remained in Moderate vegetation deficit band 29.29 32.02 with Ijara sub county maintaining Normal vegetation greenness band. Balambala 22.73 23.56 However, Lagdera subcounty deteriorated to severe vegetation deficit. Daadab 25.25 28.78 29.61 33.41 Ijara 42.25 49.93 Lagdera 21.71 15.89 Dujis 23.9 24.98 ISIOLO County Stability in the vegetation greenness condition with entire county and its sub- 23.45 22.67 counties falling in the moderate vegetation deficit in the month of May. I. North 24.72 24.45 I. South 21.52 20.00 TANA RIVER County The county and its sub counties remained at Moderate vegetation condition in 32.1 29.94 the month of May. Garsen worsened Moderate vegetation condition. 25.02 28.89 Galole 31.92 24.34 Garsen 38.22 34.33 KAJIADO County Stability noted across the county with all sub counties remaining at above 70.95 63.43 normal vegetation greenness conditions in the month of May. 73.43 62.17 K. Central 67.64 62.59 K. East 67.45 61.66 K. North 65.2 57.22 K. South 75.72 69.58 K. West LAIKIPIA County The county remained stable at normal vegetation greenness with Laikipia 38.69 36.48 North declining from Normal vegetation greenness to moderate vegetation 41.6 45.03 deficit in April to month of May. L. East 36.5 32.31 L. North 41.4 40.16 L. West THARAKA County The county is in Above normal vegetation greenness in the month under review. 47.49 57.05 NITHI The situation is stable when compared to the previous month of April. Tharaka 66.65 66.97 subcounty remained at normal vegetation greenness. Chulga 72.58 69.81 Maara 32.25 49.31 WEST POKOT County The vegetation greenness deteriorated for both the county and its sub counties 43 50.93 recording normal condition compared to the previous above normal. Pokot 36.6 44.2 South improved from normal vegetation greenness to above normal vegetation Kacheliba greenness. 51.73 58.28 Kapenguria 51.11 64.22 Pokot South 42.47 49.11 Sigor EMBU County The county and its sub-counties remained stable during the month of April 65.05 64.33 across all the sub-counties with vegetation greenness above normal in all parts 79.61 64.57 of the county. Manyatta 58.06 65.56 Mbeere North 60.2 61.9 Mbeere South Runyenjes 82.66 70.42 COUNTY Sub County VCI-3 VCI-3 Colour VCI Drought Category month as month as values at 28th at 30th (3- Apr 2021 May 2021 month) 50 Vegetation greenness above normal 35 - Normal vegetation greenness 20 - Moderate vegetation deficit 10 - Severe vegetation deficit County The county and most of its sub counties improved to normal vegetation 34.29 39.49 greenness condition from moderate vegetation deficit in the previous month of 54.01 51.04 April. Kitui Central 37.42 42.87 Kitui East Mwingi 33.1 38.22 KITUI 24.82 36.51 Mwingi North 24.82 44.04 Mwingi West 37.76 30.43 Kitui Rural Kitui South 32.51 38.6 64.71 42.68 Kitui West County The county and its sub counties recorded above normal vegetation greenness 59.42 51.44 conditions. The situation is stable when the current and previous month of April 73.55 71.55 and current month of May are compared. Kaiti 73.55 51.4 Kibwezi East 73.55 42.32 Kibwezi West MAKUENI 68.47 68.13 Kilome Makueni 52.94 43.85 62.73 60.63 Mbooni County The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county and its Sub- 53.8 56.62 counties except for Igembe central, Igembe south Tigania East and Igembe North 61.61 57.08 which recorded normal vegetation greenness. Buuri MERU 66.82 65.95 Central Imenti Igembe 43.31 57.91 35.39 37.73 Igembe North Igembe South 46.67 66.37 67.68 70.22 North Imenti 78.71 72.3 South Imenti 48.48 46.76 Tigania East 48.48 57.84 Tigania West County The county and its sub counties remained stable recording above normal 74.98 68.99 vegetation greenness just like the previous month of April. 68.12 63.64 Kieni 75.48 68.72 Mathira 87.55 75.43 Mukurweini NYERI 84.46 78.56 Othaya 87.2 81.71 83.49 74.77 County Constancy in vegetation condition noted across the county and most of its sub 27.05 27.2 counties recording moderate vegetation deficit Ganze and Kaloleni improved 17.55 21.49 from severe vegetation deficit to moderate vegetation deficit. However, Rabai Ganze and Kilifi south sub-counties worsened. 19.84 21.55 Kaloleni 31.73 29.89 Magarini KILIFI 28.56 28.85 Malindi 32.61 40.11 Kilifi-North Rabai 25.81 17.21 Kilifi-South 17.24 10.86 Normal vegetation greenness noted across the entire county which is an 43.08 42.55 improvement when the month under review is compared to the previous month 36.67 37.17 of April. Kinango KWALE 36.67 53.4 Lungalunga Matuga 53.92 43.63 55.43 51.81 Msambweni County The entire county remained in normal vegetation greenness. Lamu east is in 42.21 45.31 above normal vegetation greenness. LAMU Lamu East 42.21 51.19 40.82 41.91 Lamu West VEGETATION GREENNESS DROUGHT CATEGORIESREMARKS at 28th at 30th 50 Vegetation greenness above Apr 2021 May 2021 normal 35 - 50 Normal vegetation greenness County Stability in the vegetation condition greenness above normal in the county 52.06 50.42 together with its all-sub-counties. Voi subcounty remains in normal vegetation 60.29 61.12 greenness. Mwatate 56.86 58.76 Taveta TAITA TAVETA 46.48 42.31 Wundanyi 65.83 67.91 72.41 67.3 65.99 64.52 Narok-East 80.12 70.98 Emurua Dikirr The county and its sub-counties remained stable in above normal vegetation greenness band. The attributing factor could be the timely onset of the long rains 75.33 64.15 Kilgoris of MAM in the 3rd dekad of March which has been evenly distributed in both NAROK space and time 61.22 61.21 Narok-North Narok-South 73.38 71.71 77.83 68.68 Narok-West Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 5). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 11.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 4.0: Drought Phase Classification