July 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS The good performance of the March-April- However, ongoing locust invasion in Turkana, Marsabit May (MAM) 2020 seasonal rainfall has and Samburu is projected to cause significant damage to resulted to high vegetation regeneration with forage and crops. Moreover, the disruption of market all arid and semi-arid counties recording operations due to the COVID 19 pandemic is likely to vegetation greenness values that are above negatively affect food supply and livestock prices which normal ranges. might lead to the deterioration of the food security situation in most ASAL counties. Body condition of all species of livestock remained good across ASAL counties. The Overall, the above-average rains recorded since March improvement in livestock body condition was has enhanced the environmental indicators across the attributed to availability of adequate pasture ASAL region and as a result all the 23 ASAL counties are and browse and short trekking distances from currently classified in the normal drought stage with the grazing areas to water points. Consequently, trend improving in one county, worsening in five while 17 livestock productivity especially milk counties recorded a stable trend. On-going harvesting of pulses, maize, millet and sorghum has replenished household food stocks in the marginal agricultural counties thereby improving food availability. In adition, during the month of June prices of cereals declined further while those of livestock remained above average which led to improved terms of trade for livestock keepers in nearly all the ASAL counties. Drought phase classification, May 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Wajir Kajiado, Baringo, Embu (Mbeere), Laikipia, Marsabit, Taita Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Kwale, Kilifi, , Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Makueni, Kitui, Meru (Meru North), Tharaka Nithi Isiolo, (Tharaka) Lamu, Tana River Garissa 1.0 Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall A good number of ASAL counties like Garissa, Isiolo, Wajir, Marsabit, Tana River, Mandera, Taita Taveta and Kitui experienced generally dry conditions during the month of June. However, a few counties such as Baringo, West Pokot, Turkana, Laikipia, Kwale, Lamu, Kilifi and Samburu recorded substantial amounts of rainfall which were mostly above their long term average for the month of June. Overall for many ASAL areas, the above normal March-April-May (MAM) 2020 rains have supported regeneration of pasture and browse and has been favourable to crop production. Figure 1 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in late June 2019 with that in late June 2020. The good performance of the March-April-May (MAM) 2020 seasonal rainfall is evident as it has resulted to high vegetation regeneration with all arid and semi-arid counties recording vegetation greenness values that are above normal ranges. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) June 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) June 2020 Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), June 2019 and June 2020 Water sources In almost all ASAL counties, majority of the open water sources such as water pans and dams have water and thus the water situation remained unchanged from what was reported in May 2020. As a result, average return distances to water for both households and livestock in most counties are stable and remained within seasonal ranges. Livestock production Livestock production indicators continued improving during the month of June. Body condition of all species of livestock remained good across ASAL counties. The improvement in livestock body condition was attributed to availability of adequate pasture and browse and short trekking distances from grazing areas to water points. In addition, livestock productivity especially milk Pasture and browse condition Most counties reported good pasture and browse condition with few counties including Makueni Mandera, Tana River, Meru, Turkana and Wajir classifying the current state of pasture and browse as being fair as shown in Table 2 Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, June 2020 Pasture Browse P oor Fair Good P oor Fair Good Makueni Baringo Lamu Mandera Baringo Embu Mandera Garissa Isiolo Tana River Garissa Isiolo Tana River Kajiado Kilifi Meru Kajiado Kilifi Meru Kitui Kwale Wajir Samburu Kwale Turkana Laikipia Embu Makueni Laikipia Lamu Wajir Marsabit Narok Marsabit Narok Samburu Nyeri Turkana Nyeri Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Kitui Taita Taveta Taita Taveta West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Livestock body condition As illustrated in Table 3, livestock body condition in all the 23 ASAL counties was noticeably good in comparison to previous years and similar time last year which was largely attributed to enhanced availability of forage and water. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, June 2020 Cattle Goats Poor Fair Good P oor Fair Good Lamu Turkana Kwale Lamu Turkana Kwale Baringo Mandera Isiolo Baringo Mandera Isiolo Embu Marsabit Kilifi Embu Marsabit Kilifi Samburu Kitui Samburu Kitui Kajiado Makueni Kajiado Makueni Garissa Laikipia Garissa Laikipia Tana River Wajir Tana River Wajir West Pokot Narok West Pokot Narok Taita Taveta Nyeri Taita Taveta Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Meru Tharaka Nithi Meru Milk production Milk production situation in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in Table 4. In comparison to the long term mean, average milk production per household in June 2020 in 14 counties was above or close to LTA which was attributed to increased availability of water, pasture and browse. However, in seven counties: Marsabit, Turkana, Samburu, Kitui, Narok, Tana River and Embu average milk production per household was below normal. The below average milk production was attributed to a reduction in the proportion of lactating cattle and a drop in kidding in goats, increase in livestock disease incidences and a general reduction in livestock herd sizes. Table 4.0: Milk production, June 2020 Milk Garissa Baringo Embu Kwale Baringo Garissa Production Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Samburu Embu Kitui Lamu Kwale Marsabit Tana River Isiolo Makueni Mandera Makueni Narok Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Meru Nyeri Meru Samburu Turkana Lamu Narok Taita Taveta Wajir Tana River Mandera Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Turkana Marsabit West Pokot Taita Taveta Wajir West Pokot Cattle prices In all the 23 ASAL counties cattle prices are improving or have remained stable owing mainly to the fact that the state of cattle body condition is on an upward trend. In most ASAL areas the prevailing average price for cattle are above or close to the three-year mean price of cattle for the month of June. For instance, in West Pokot, Tharaka, Wajir, Tana River and Kajiado the current prices are above LTA by 36, 32, 30, 28 and 21 percent respectively which was associated to the improved body condition of cattle across ASAL areas. Table 5 shows the trends in cattle prices in June 2020. Table 5.0: Cattle prices, June 2020 Cattle Taita Taveta Lamu Embu Kitui Turkana Nyeri Prices West Pokot Wajir Kitui Makueni Baringo Garissa Tana River Isiolo Laikipia Wajir Tharaka Kwale Marsabit Kajiado Mandera Lamu Marsabit Kajiado Makueni Narok Meru Samburu Embu Tharaka Kwale Samburu Tana River Meru Baringo Garissa Turkana West Pokot Kilifi Nyeri Taita Taveta Goat prices Table 6 summarizes the trend in goat prices in ASAL counties. During the month of June, goat prices in 21 ASAL counties were above average or close to LTA which was attributed to the good body condition of goats. In Samburu County, for example, the price of a medium-sized two-year old goat increased to Kshs 3875 from Kshs 3,570 recorded in May which was above the LTA price of Kshs 2,795 by 39 percent. Similarly, current average prices for goats in Wajir, Laikipia, Narok and Tana River were above LTA by 33, 25, 18 and 16 percent respectively. However, goat prices in Makueni counties remained below the 2015-19 average due to closure of the main livestock markets as a result of measures placed to curb the spread of COVID-19. Table 6.0: Goat prices, June 2020 Goat Samburu Embu Isiolo Makueni Tharaka Nithi Baringo Kitui Isiolo Prices Turkana Nyeri Kitui Tana River Garissa Kilifi Meru Kajiado Kilifi Lamu Samburu Turkana Narok Garissa Meru Mandera Laikipia Mandera Nyeri Laikipia Narok Marsabit Kajiado Makueni Lamu Baringo Kwale Kwale Marsabit West Pokot Wajir Embu West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Wajir T aita Taveta Taita Taveta The general condition of crops in the ASAL counties such as Kitui, Makueni, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere), Tharaka, Meru North, Narok, and Nyeri (Kieni) is fairly good and households expect to realize a normal harvest. Currently, harvesting of beans, green grams, cowpeas, millet, sorghum maize and dolichos has started in most of the marginal agricultural areas. Maize prices In most of the ASAL counties, the current maize prices are below average with about 80 percent of the counties recording prices below or close to the 2015 - 19 LTA. In Tharaka, for example, the average price of a kilogramme of maize in June was Kshs 36 which is 18 percent lower than the three-year average price of Kshs 44. Likewise, average maize prices in Embu (Mbeere), Makueni, Meru (Meru North), and Kilifi were below LTA by 27, 20, 13 and 10 percent respectively. The below normal maize prices recorded in the marginal agricultural counties was as a result of abundant availability of the commodity due to start of harvesting in most areas. Table 7 shows the trends in maize prices in June 2020. Table 7.0: Maize prices, June 2020 Maize Garissa Samburu West Pokot Narok Kwale Samburu Garissa Tana River Prices Mandera Baringo Makueni Embu Lamu Mandera Narok Lamu Isiolo Laikipia Meru Meru Laikipia Baringo Kwale Kajiado Kilifi Nyeri Wajir Kajiado Kilifi Kitui Marsabit Tharaka Nithi West Pokot Tharaka Isiolo Tana River T aita Taveta Marsabit Embu Turkana Turkana Kitui Wajir Makueni Nyeri Access to water The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 8. Return distances to water for households have remained below normal in about 90 percent of the ASAL counties. However, return distances to water sources for households have started to increase in a number of counties. For instance, in Kwale County, households had to walk an average of 4.4 km in June which is an increase of 63 percent compared to the distance recorded in the previous month of 2.7 km. In the same way, in Tharaka, average household return distances increased to 3 km in June from 2.8 km in May representing an increase of 7 percent. The observed increase in average distances to water points was attributed to the cessation of the long rains which occurred in May and the corresponding drying up of open water sources. Table 8.0: Distance from households to main water sources, June 2020 Distance from Kwale Taita Taveta Wajir , West Pokot Lamu Laikipia Isiolo, Kilifi households to Lamu Tana River Nyeri, Samburu Samburu Taita Taveta Kwale, Marsabit main water Tharaka Makueni Baringo, Isiolo West Pokot Turkana Meru, Samburu sources Mandera Embu, Garissa Wajir Baringo, Garissa Kajiado Meru, Narok Kajiado, Kitui Laikipia Kilifi, Kitui Embu, Makueni M arsabit Turkana Mandera, Narok The trend in the distance trekked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 9. In all counties except in Kwale and Laikipia, access to water for livestock was better in June compared with normal times as animals had to walk shorter distances compared with the usual distances recorded in the 2015 - 2019 long term average (LTA). This was attributed to the average to above average performance of the March to May rains which supported significant recharge of water sources as well as triggering substantial pasture and browse regeneration in most ASAL counties. Table 9.0: Distance from livestock grazing areas to main water sources, June 2020 Distance from Kwale Lamu Isiolo, Kajiado Lamu Kilifi Makueni, Marsabit livestock L aikipia M akueni Kilifi, Kitui Makueni Turkana, Garissa grazing area Marsabit, Nyeri Samburu Mandera, Narok to main water Narok, Samburu Taita Wajir, Kajiado Wajir, West Pokot Taveta Kitui, Laikipia sources Baringo, Embu West Pokot Baringo, Embu Meru, Garissa Isiolo, Kwale Mandera, Turkana Meru, Nyeri Taita Taveta Tharaka Nithi Terms of trade In all ASAL counties, the current terms of trade (ToT) are above the long term average for the month implying a favourable situation for livestock producers as demonstrated in Table 10. Furthermore in 18 ASAL counties, the terms of trade were stable or improved in June 2020. An indication that households could obtain more kilogrammes of maize from the sale of a goat than they did during the previous month. The enhanced ToT was as a result of the good body condition of goats which translated to favourable market prices. Table 10.0: Terms of trade, June 2020 Terms of Marsabit Kitui Mandera Kajiado Narok, Embu Isiolo trade Samburu Nyeri Laikipia Baringo Makueni (ToT) Laikipia Kilifi Marsabit Turkana Wajir Baringo Garissa Samburu Garissa Meru Turkana Narok Tana River Kilifi Lamu Makueni Isiolo Tharaka Nithi Kitui Tharaka Kwale Kwale Kajiado Wajir Mandera Tana River Embu Nyeri West Pokot Lamu Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Meru West Pokot Health and nutrition Table 11 illustrates the trends in the prevalence of malnutrition as indicated by the mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) in June 2020. Overall, the trend in most ASAL counties is improving or stable. In the pastoral counties, improvement in the nutrition status of children is attributed to milk availability while in the marginal agricultural areas the positive trend is associated better dietary diversity due to availability of green vegetables, pulses and cereals. However, a worsening trend in the nutrition status of children was recorded in Isiolo, Narok and Kajiado. For example, in Narok County, the proportion of children under five years of age who are at risk of malnutrition rose to 6.6 percent in June from 5.5 percent in May. The increase was linked to limited access to health services since some of the caregivers stopped taking their children for routine health monitoring and treatment because of fear of COVID-19 while in Isiolo County the worsening situation was associated with rising cases of intestinal worms, increase in upper respiratory tract infections and diarrheal ailments among the under-fives. Table 11.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), June 2020 MUAC Lamu Laikipia Kilifi Garissa Embu Baringo Isiolo Samburu Marsabit Kwale Kilifi Kitui Lamu Kajiado Tana River Baringo Narok Mandera Makueni Kwale Narok Makueni Isiolo Marsabit Meru Garissa Kitui Samburu Laikipia Mandera Meru Tharaka Wajir Tharaka Nyeri Tana River Nyeri Kajiado Nyeri Taita Taveta Taita Taveta West Pokot 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 11 shows the trend in drought status in the 23 ASAL counties. The months of January to February were one of the wettest period in the ASAL region which together with the above-average rains recorded since March has enhanced the environmental indicators and as a result all counties are currently classified in the normal drought phase with the trend improving in one county, worsening in five and remaining stable in 17 counties. Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, June 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Wajir Kajiado, Baringo, Embu (Mbeere), Laikipia, Marsabit, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Turkana, Narok, West Pokot, Makueni, Isiolo, Kilifi, , Mandera, Nyeri (Kieni), Samburu, Kitui, Garissa Meru (Meru North), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) Lamu, Tana River Recovery 2.0 Projected food security situation Following the above-average March to May long rains received in most of the ASAL areas, pasture and water availability for livestock has increased significantly. In the pastoral areas, the available forage and water is projected to last up to the next rains in October. The abundant rangeland resources are expected to result to increased livestock productivity, especially average to above- average livestock prices and near-average milk production. In the marginal agricultural counties, it is expected that crop production will be average to above average hence the long rains crop harvest is likely to improve food security in most of the semi- arid counties by providing casual wage labour income earning opportunities and increasing household food availability during the period between July and September 2020. However, ongoing locust invasion in Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu is projected to cause significant damage to forage and crops. Also, the disruption of market operations due to the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to negatively affect food supply and livestock prices which might lead to the deterioration of the food security situation in most ASAL counties. 3.0 Recommendations Enhance implementation of priority drought preparedness interventions Promote community based livestock disease surveillance and also intensify livestock disease control measures Continued advocacy for pasture conservation including deferred grazing management and participatory rangeland management Sensitize farmers on appropriate post-harvest management techniques in the marginal agricultural and agro-pastoral areas. Enhance awareness raising on COVID-19 and conduct campaigns on hygiene and other disease prevention and containment measures Upscale nutritional screening in areas with high prevalence of children at risk of malnutrition. Provision of water treatment chemicals for households getting water from open water sources. Continue monitoring and conduct control measure (both aerial and ground spraying operations) to supress the spread of desert locust in affected counties such as Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana. Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 29th June 2020 BARINGO County 81.89 87.93 Vegetation greenness remained above normal in all parts of the county Central 84.87 86.57 attributed to the cumulative effects of the enhanced rainfall received during the MAM season. The county also received above average rainfall in Eldama 73.66 69.71 June 2020 Mogotio 75.73 85.34 North 83.66 87.58 South 80.05 82.01 Tiaty 84.94 95.13 MANDERA County 67.93 83.38 Significant improvement especially for Mandera East which currently is in Banissa 59.59 80.18 the above normal vegetation greenness band from normal vegetation greenness recorded in May M. East 48.59 68.71 Lafey 60.49 84.64 M. North 70.61 87.93 M. South 74.92 79.77 M. West 74.81 87.45 TURKANA County 101.84 85.05 Vegetation greenness above normal for the period across all sub counties T. Central 109.17 93.37 T. East 75.82 87.62 T. Loima 116.93 103.10 T. North 95.46 63.80 T. South 114.95 107.04 T. West 110.35 84.65 MARSABIT County 64.72 64.30 All sub counties maintained vegetation greenness above normal Laisaimis 66.68 69.38 Moyale 54.44 59.22 N. Horr 65.89 62.30 Saku 71.03 72.26 WAJIR County 52.56 54.53 The county is in the above normal vegetation greenness band. However, W. East 60.63 68.36 slight decline was observed in Eldas and Wajir South which currently are in the normal vegetation greenness class while Wajir West has deteriorated W. Eldas 42.09 43.05 further to moderate vegetation deficit W. North 65.45 75.55 W. South 49.48 48.22 W. Tarbaj 61.25 68.86 W. West 39.63 32.06 SAMBURU County 74.58 78.93 The entire county is in above normal vegetation greenness S. East 69.34 71.98 S. North 78.89 85.39 S. West 81.14 85.03 GARISSA County 65.80 69.71 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period Balambala 66.81 82.63 Daadab 54.76 63.51 Fafi 69.15 74.06 Ijara 75.80 69.47 Lagdera 57.21 56.96 Dujis 58.88 68.19 ISIOLO County 62.60 53.64 All sub counties maintained vegetation greenness above normal I. North 61.01 51.43 I. South 65.03 57.01 TANA County 80.23 78.65 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness RIVER Bura 66.22 79.54 Galole 83.22 77.19 Garsen 90.24 78.82 KAJIADO County 86.35 77.99 The entire county is in the above normal vegetation greenness band K. Central 79.00 70.95 K. East 83.74 71.94 K. North 81.20 68.6 K. South 85.04 75.89 K. West 92.80 86.50 LAIKIPIA County 72.70 79.41 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period L. East 78.01 79.93 L. North 72.65 80.31 L. West 70.24 77.96 THARAKA County 67.75 65.19 The county and its sub counties are in above normal vegetation greenness NITHI Chulga 77.31 75.28 Maara 75.1 71.74 Tharaka 61.79 65.19 WEST County 85.48 82.92 Vegetation greenness above normal for the period across all sub counties POKOT Kacheliba 81.69 81.54 Kapenguria 87.41 83.57 Pokot South 93.60 79.24 Sigor 85.96 87.09 EMBU County 83.27 75.52 All sub counties maintained vegetation greenness above normal Manyatta 80.13 77.99 Mbeere North 82.56 74.16 Mbeere South 85.45 74.59 Runyenjes 80.31 79.27 KITUI County 87.54 84.27 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period Kitui Central 87.17 84.65 Kitui East 89.93 88.77 Mwingi Central 84.17 85.05 Mwingi North 73.20 71.03 Mwingi West 93.55 89.08 Kitui Rural 93.61 88.24 Kitui South 92.24 86.55 Kitui West 89.50 86.82 MAKUENI County 89.91 81.63 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Kaiti 93.78 86.36 greenness above normal in all parts of the county Kibwezi East 88.93 77.38 Kibwezi West 90.59 77.57 Kilome 89.69 78.77 Makueni 86.05 85.61 Mbooni 95.41 94.39 MERU County 79.05 73.15 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county Buuri 81.32 70.56 Central Imenti 81.59 70.25 Igembe Central 78.94 80.73 Igembe North 75.34 71.51 Igembe South 73.68 79.03 North Imenti 83.19 71.40 South Imenti 81.17 75.56 Tigania East 75.79 66.97 Tigania West 89.03 73.97 NYERI County 81.05 77.65 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county Kieni 79.34 76.80 Mathira 78.99 78.20 Mukurweini 99.36 89.79 Town 91.35 84.71 Othaya 77.78 73.85 Tetu 81.55 75.62 KILIFI County 76.28 71.87 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation Ganze 89.34 81.43 greenness. Kaloleni 83.13 74.52 Magarini 71.93 68.80 Malindi 67.53 68.48 Kilifi-North 61.17 62.08 Rabai 88.94 78.25 Kilifi-South 78.12 70.04 KWALE County 86.79 72.11 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period Kinango 90.87 74.06 Lungalunga 86.23 73.97 Matuga 75.85 65.20 Msambweni 68.67 57.46 LAMU County 85.36 80.47 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation Lamu East 84.61 78.43 greenness Lamu West 85.80 81.65 TAITA County 95.94 83.85 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with TAVETA Mwatate 96.26 90.80 vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county Taveta 92.63 83.68 Voi 96.66 80.48 Wundanyi 102.60 100.51 NAROK County 84.92 73.83 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county Narok-East 89.99 77.20 Emurua Dikirr 69.73 59.95 Kilgoris 74.97 64.25 Narok-North 83.39 71.93 Narok-South 85.27 74.38 Narok-West 88.88 78.24 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 3. ALARM 5. RECOVERY Environmental and production indicators indicators return to fluctuate outside seasonal norms 2. ALERT 1. NORMAL indicators fluctuate indicators show no outside expected unusual fluctuations