September 2020 KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sunny and dry weather conditions Prices of most cereals remained at average or below experienced during the month of August average due to an increase in stocks held by accelerated drying up of water sources households. In most ASAL counties the price of leading to increased distances to water maize remained stable or exhibited an improving sources for both livestock and domestic trend. use. As a result, the average distances to water sources for households and During the month under review, terms of trade livestock recorded an increase compared (ToT) in all counties were favourable, implying that to the month of July across the ASAL livestock keepers in almost all the 23 ASAL counties. counties were purchasing quantities of maize above seasonal averages from the sale of a medium size The state of pasture and browse in most goat. The favourable ToT recorded in August 2020 of the arid and semi-arid counties is still were driven by the significantly above average goat in fair and good condition which has led prices. to improved livestock body condition and increased milk production. 22 ASAL counties are currently categorized in the normal drought phase with one county classified in the alert phase. However, the effects of the dry Consequently, in most pastoral areas, conditions experienced during the month of August current livestock productivity remains have started to be observed and therefore by end of above the 2015 - 2019 long term average. the month, 11 counties were reporting a worsening For instance, livestock prices in all ASAL trend while 12 counties recorded a stable trend. areas are above average or close to the long term average (LTA). Drought phase classification, August 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera , Isiolo, Wajir Marsabit, Embu Tana River, Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, (Mbeere), Makueni, Nyeri (Kieni), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Turkana, West Kwale, Meru (Meru North), Kitui Pokot Page 1 1 Drought status 1.1 Drought indicators Rainfall August was generally a dry month, particularly in counties like Garissa, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River, Isiolo, Tharaka, Kitui, Makueni, Taita Taveta and Kajiado. Sunny and dry weather conditions experienced in most ASAL areas led to faster reduction in water availability for both livestock and domestic use. However, during the month of August, few counties such as Baringo, West Pokot, Samburu and Turkana received enhanced rainfall which were above average compared to the seasonal average for a similar period. Figure 1 compares Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) in August 2019 with August 2020. There was significant vegetation deficit in most ASAL counties in 2019, which is attributed to the poor performance of March-April-May 2019 long rains while the August 2020 VCI map shows enhanced vegetation condition across all counties as a result of the above average rains received during the March to May 2020 rainfall season. Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) Aug 2019 Vegetation Condition Index (3 Month) Aug 2020 Figure 1: Comparison of Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), August 2019 and August 2020 Livestock production Generally, current livestock productivity remains above the 2015 - 2019 long term average that is attributed to the enhanced status of rangeland resources which has led to improved livestock body condition and an increase in milk production. Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture and browse in most of the arid and semi-arid counties was generally in fair and good condition as shown in Table 1. The enhanced pasture and browse condition was attributed Page 2 to good vegetation rejuvenation owing to the above average rainfall performance during the Mach - May long rains season. However, pasture and browse condition was relatively below normal in Mandera and Meru counties which was associated with the prevalent dry conditions and overgrazing as a result of increase in herd sizes of both large and small stock. Table 1.0: Pasture and browse condition, August 2020 Pasture Browse Poor Fair Good P oor Fair Good Mandera Embu Baringo Embu Marsabit M eru Garissa Kilifi Kitui Samburu Kitui Isiolo Kwale Taita Taveta Kwale Laikipia Makueni West Pokot Makueni Lamu Mandera Kajiado Nyeri Narok Meru Garissa Tharaka Nithi Samburu Tana River Baringo Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Laikipia Wajir West Pokot Nyeri Turkana Tana River Marsabit Tharaka Nithi Lamu Kajiado Kilifi Isiolo Narok Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition in many ASAL counties ranges from good to fair although the condition of livestock is expected to deteriorate in the next two months since pasture availability is likely to diminish while trekking distances to water sources might increase. Table 2.0: Livestock body condition, August 2020 Cattle Goats P oor Fair Good P oor Fair Good Embu Garissa Kajiado Lamu Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Lamu Laikipia Baringo Taita Taveta Narok Nyeri Makueni Mandera West Pokot Embu Marsabit Kitui Tana River Meru Turkana Kwale Samburu Kilifi Samburu Kilifi Makueni Mandera Tharaka Nithi Wajir Marsabit Kitui Taita Taveta Narok Laikipia Baringo West Pokot Isiolo Turkana Kwale Tana River Meru Garissa Kajiado Isiolo Wajir Milk production During the month under review average milk production went up in seven counties, remained stable in eight while another eight counties recorded a downward trend. However, in 14 counties: - Tana River, Mandera, Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Meru (Meru North), Kitui, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Narok, Embu (Mbeere), and Laikipia current milk production was below the 2014 - 2019 long term average. The below normal milk production in Page 3 most of the pastoral counties was attributed to low calving rates. For instance, in Marsabit County, majority of the households sampled reported that they were obtaining milk mainly from goats and sheep since calving in camels and cattle was expected to take place from October. Table 3.0: Milk production, August 2020 Milk Wajir Kwale Tana River Samburu Embu Kajiado Samburu Production Isiolo Makueni Embu Kajiado Kilifi Isiolo Baringo Kilifi Kitui Mandera Kitui West Pokot Garissa Lamu Marsabit Tharaka Lamu Tharaka Nithi Kwale Nyeri Turkana Meru Makueni Laikipia Mandera Taita Taveta Narok Baringo Marsabit Meru Nyeri West Pokot Garissa Laikipia Tana River Narok Turkana Taita Taveta Wajir Cattle prices In nearly all ASAL counties, current market price for cattle are above the 2015 - 19 average price for the month of August. For instance, in Narok, Wajir, Tana River, West Pokot, Kajiado, Isiolo, Samburu and Marsabit the prevalent prices are above the average cattle prices for a similar period of the year by 49, 45, 43, 41, 30, 28, 27 and 19 percent respectively. The above normal cattle prices are attributed to good livestock body condition against the few number of cattle offered for sale as most of the households hold their stock with the aim of building their herd sizes which has led to a general rise in cattle prices. Table 4 shows the trends in cattle prices in August 2020. Table 4.0: Cattle prices, August 2020 Cattle Wajir, Baringo Kajiado, Kwale, Mandera Turkana Marsabit Baringo Embu Mandera Prices Kilifi, Laikipia, Kitui, Lamu, Tharaka Garissa Isiolo Laikipia Narok Kilifi Kitui Samburu Marsabit, Narok, Meru (Meru Makueni Meru Kajiado North), Samburu, Taita Taveta, Turkana Wajir Nyeri Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi Tana River Kwale Lamu (Tharaka), West Pokot, Embu Taita Taveta (Mbeere), Garissa, Isiolo, Nyeri West Pokot (Kieni), Makueni Goat prices Table 5 summarizes the trend in goat prices in the 23 ASAL counties. During the month of August goat prices in all ASAL areas were above average or close to LTA. The above normal goat prices was attributed to good forage availability leading to improved body condition and hence a rise in their market value. Page 4 Table 5.0: Goat prices, August 2020 Goat Wajir, Baringo Marsabit, Lamu Baringo Isiolo Garissa Embu Prices Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Narok Kajiado Kitui Mandera, Marsabit Meru Samburu Laikipia Lamu (Meru North), Makueni, Tana River Makueni Nyeri Narok, Samburu, Taita Kwale Turkana Wajir Taveta, Taita Taveta, Mandera Marsabit Meru Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), Tharaka Nithi Turkana, West Pokot, Embu Taita Taveta (Mbeere), Garissa, Isiolo, West Pokot Kitui, Kwale, Nyeri (Kieni) Kilifi Harvesting of long rains crops in marginal agricultural areas has been completed in most counties. Overall, maize production is projected to be average to above average except for parts of south- eastern cluster (Embu county, Machakos, Makueni) where production reduced by about 50 percent due to early cessation of rainfall. In Turkana and Samburu, the above average rainfall resulted in water logging leading to reduced production of maize, sorghum and beans by about 10 to 20 percent. The drought tolerant legumes such as pigeon peas, green grams and cow peas production was below average to average across the marginal agriculture clusters. The available maize stocks held by households are expected to last for the next 2 to 3 months. Maize prices During the month under analysis, prices of most cereals remained at average or below average due to an increase in stocks held by households. In most ASAL counties the price of maize remained stable or exhibited an improving trend. Table 6 demonstrates the trends in maize prices in August 2020. Table 6.0: Maize prices, August 2020 Maize Garissa Kwale Kajiado Embu Baringo Turkana Isiolo Tana River Prices Mandera Makueni Baringo Isiolo Kajiado Makueni Kitui Tana River Marsabit Kilifi Lamu Kilifi Samburu Nyeri Narok Kitui Nyeri Kwale Garissa Embu Samburu Laikipia Meru Lamu Laikipia Wajir Turkana Tharaka Nithi Meru Mandera Narok Wajir Taita Taveta Tharaka Taita Taveta West Pokot West Pokot Marsabit Access to water for households In several ASAL counties the average distances to water sources for households recorded an increase compared to the month of July. Some of the largest increase in distances to the main water points for households during the month were in the following counties: Turkana, Makueni, Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Nyeri, Mandera, Meru and Tana River. The increase in the trekking distance to water sources is attributed to the fact that water levels have reduced in Page 5 some of the open water sources following the cessation of the long rains and loss of water due evaporation. In Narok, for example, average household distance to watering sources increased by 29 percent from 1.4 km in July to 1.8 km in August. In Tana River, current average return distance from household to the main water sources increased from 3.2 km in July to 4.1 km, rising by 28 percent while in Turkana distance to water sources from the household increased by 24 percent to 4.6 km from 3.7 km recorded in July. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table 7. Table 7.0: Distance from households to main water sources, August 2020 Distance from Garissa Embu Tana River Meru Kwale Wajir Turkana Makueni households to Lamu Wajir Baringo Isiolo Lamu Embu Baringo Narok main water Mandera Samburu Kilifi Kitui Tharaka Isiolo Kajiado Kilifi sources Kajiado Makueni Narok West Pokot Kitui Laikipia Nyeri Marsabit Turkana Nyeri Garissa Mandera Meru Laikipia Kwale Marsabit Tana River Tharaka Nithi Samburu Taita Taveta Taita Taveta West Pokot Access to water for livestock Compared with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas increased in all counties except in Tharaka, West Pokot and Baringo. In addition, in 13 out of the 23 ASAL counties access to water for livestock was more challenging in August compared with normal times as animals had to walk slightly longer distances compared with the usual distances recorded in the 2015 - 2019 long-term average (LTA). The trend in the distance walked by livestock in search of water is illustrated Table 8. Table 8.0: Distance to water sources for livestock, August 2020 Distance from Samburu, Lamu, Kajiado Turkana West Pokot Embu Lamu, Isiolo, Kitui, livestock Isiolo, Embu, Laikipia Narok Baringo Meru Kajiado, Kilifi, grazing area Garissa, Baringo, Makueni Nyeri Tharaka Nyeri Laikipia, Makueni, to main water Kilifi, Kitui, Wajir Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Mandera, Marsabit, Mandera, Meru, West Pokot Tharaka Turkana Narok, Samburu, sources Marsabit, Kwale, Tana River, Wajir, Tana River Kwale, Garissa Increase in the average trekking distance to water sources for livestock is mainly attributed drying up of open water sources as a result of the dry weather conditions experienced in August 2020. Distances are expected to increase further in September. Terms of trade Table 9 shows the trend in the terms of trade (ToT) in ASAL counties. During the month under review, terms of trade (ToT) in all counties were favourable, implying that livestock keepers in Page 6 almost all the 23 ASAL counties were purchasing quantities of maize above seasonal averages from the sale of a medium size goat. The favourable ToT recorded in August 2020 were driven by the significantly above average goat prices. Table 9.0: Terms of trade, August 2020 Terms of Taita Taveta Meru Wajir Lamu Taita Taveta Tana River trade West Pokot Lamu Meru Tharaka Nithi Embu (ToT) Tana River Embu Narok Laikipia Kwale Laikipia Kilifi Kilifi Turkana Mandera Kajiado Baringo Kajiado Marsabit Kitui Mandera Garissa Samburu Nyeri Makueni Isiolo Baringo Garissa Marsabit Kitui Turkana Narok Samburu Nyeri Makueni Isiolo West Pokot Wajir Tharaka Kwale Health and nutrition Table 10 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition across the ASAL counties. In 16 ASAL counties, the ratio of the under-fives rated as being at risk of malnutrition based the on mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) measurement during the month of August 2020 was above the long term average. The declining nutrition status recorded in August in comparison to the 2015 - 2019 LTA was attributed to poor infant and young child feeding practices and reduced health seeking behaviour due to fear of COVID-19. Table 10.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), August 2020 Mid Taita Taveta Wajir Kajiado Baringo Samburu Baringo Embu Kilifi Upper Arm Makueni Meru Embu Kitui Laikipia Garissa Isiolo Kitui Circumference Turkana Lamu Marsabit Mandera Lamu Kajiado Kwale Makueni Garissa Kwale Tharaka Nyeri Mandera Meru Isiolo Kilifi Tana River Marsabit Narok Laikipia Narok Wajir Turkana Samburu Nyeri West Pokot Taita Taveta West Pokot Tharaka Nithi Tana River 1.2 Drought phase classification Table 11 shows the status and trend in drought phase classification in the 23 ASAL counties. 22 ASAL counties are currently categorized in the normal drought phase with one county classified in the alert phase. As at the end of August, 11 counties were reporting a worsening trend while 12 counties recorded a stable trend. Page 7 Table 11.0: Drought phase classification, August 2020 status Improving Stable Worsening Normal Baringo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, Mandera , Isiolo, Wajir Marsabit, Tana River, Narok, Samburu, Taita Embu (Mbeere), Makueni, Nyeri Taveta, Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka), (Kieni), Kwale, Meru (Meru Turkana, West Pokot North), Kitui Page 8 2 Projected food security situation September is normally a dry month over most parts of the country. The forecast for September 2020 indicates that nearly all arid and semi-arid counties are expected to be sunny and dry for much of the month. There is also an increased likelihood for warmer than usual temperatures in September which could result in high evapotranspiration rates hence a faster than normal drying up of pasture and open water sources. The possibility of rangeland conditions starting to deteriorate will most likely have a negative impact on livestock production due to the declining body condition hence purchasing power for pastoral households is anticipated to decline slightly in September. Consequently, the probability of poor households mainly in the pastoral areas remaining constrained in accessing food through the market will equally be high as a result of the expected decline in the livestock to cereals price ratio. It is highly probable that an upward shift in the rate of malnutrition will be witnessed during the month of September. 3 Recommendations Rehabilitation and maintenance of strategic water facilities. Awareness on boiling and treatment of drinking water as most households in ASAL areas are accessing water from unprotected sources. Support integrated medical outreaches to facilitate screening of pregnant and lactating women (PLW) and children under the age of 5 years. Enhance campaigns on COVID-19 containment measures such as good hygiene practices, hand washing, social distancing and wearing of masks. Sensitization on treatment of drinking water as most households are accessing water from unprotected sources. Livestock disease surveillance and enhanced animal health services. Close monitoring of livestock movement in search of pasture and water and support community peace dialogue and resource use agreements in conflict prone areas. Page 9 Annex 1.0: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 31st August 2020 BARINGO County 93.94 98.09 Following the above average rains received during the March-April-May Central 91.29 88.95 (MAM) long rains season and the off season rainfall experienced in June to August 2020, the condition of vegetation in all sub-counties is above Eldama 77.92 85.56 normal. Mogotio 93.78 97.22 North 93.44 94.19 South 85.5 88.83 Tiaty 101.21 98.09 MANDERA County 92.45 95.49 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Banissa 84.13 85.70 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. M. East 78.75 88.26 Lafey 97.08 103.1 M. North 94.73 96.99 M. South 93.21 96.12 M. West 94.13 95.56 TURKANA County 82.8 91.05 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. T. Central 94.79 105.12 T. East 85.65 86.63 T. Loima 98.65 99.48 T. North 65.03 78.99 T. South 96.97 98.83 T. West 81.57 95.23 MARSABIT County 64.24 68.87 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Laisaimis 70.29 73.62 Moyale 61.54 62.73 N. Horr 60.78 67.08 Saku 77.81 81.41 WAJIR County 61.41 62.80 At county level the vegetation greenness is in the above normal range W. East 73.09 69.12 although Wajir South sub county recorded normal vegetation greenness. W. Eldas 57.81 62.74 W. North 87.19 83.88 W. South 48.66 47.84 W. Tarbaj 79.32 81.72 W. West 42.50 54.35 Page 10 SAMBURU County 79.43 82.46 The state of vegetation in all sub counties is above the normal range for the S. East 71.73 81.76 period. S. North 86.23 82.33 S. West 87.35 86.15 GARISSA County 68.08 64.81 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Balambala 85.89 93.45 Daadab 63.99 66.62 Fafi 69.77 60.41 Ijara 64.46 51.68 Lagdera 60.33 69.15 Dujis 67.39 72.18 ISIOLO County 50.63 65.47 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation I. North 49.88 65 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. I. South 51.77 66.18 TANA County 75.43 78.77 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. RIVER Bura 86.16 95.63 Galole 71.36 71.8 Garsen 68.87 68.82 KAJIADO County 79.43 91.1 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. K. Central 71.14 77.98 K. East 69.13 80.29 K. North 62.49 66.55 K. South 75.26 87.85 K. West 92.32 106.36 LAIKIPIA County 87.75 90.85 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation L. East 84.02 83.79 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. L. North 90.12 93.52 L. West 85.09 89.25 THARAKA County 65.9 68.49 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. NITHI Chulga 78.52 78.63 Maara 76.19 78.38 Tharaka 57.85 61.51 WEST County 84.19 85.81 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. POKOT Kacheliba 83.7 86.63 Kapenguria 86.84 88.74 Pokot South 76.67 69.77 Sigor 87.32 88.66 Page 11 EMBU County 74.14 74.08 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Manyatta 82.53 78.17 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Mbeere North 71.79 74.25 Mbeere South 70.78 72.27 Runyenjes 82.57 75.81 KITUI County 86.74 97.13 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Kitui Central 91.32 106.41 Kitui East 94.07 108.47 Mwingi Central 89.6 99.41 Mwingi North 70.38 76.84 Mwingi West 89.26 95.13 Kitui Rural 97.44 112.85 Kitui South 87.31 97.09 Kitui West 93.82 109.24 MAKUENI County 82.55 96.09 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Kaiti 85.78 96.51 Kibwezi East 75.81 88.92 Kibwezi West 76.33 89.93 Kilome 78.17 87.28 Makueni 91.8 105.17 Mbooni 99.41 118.95 MERU County 74.33 80.57 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. Buuri 75.06 81.81 Central Imenti 74.19 80.63 Igembe Central 82.28 88 Igembe North 66.74 72.74 Igembe South 81.12 81.64 North Imenti 79.48 89.34 South Imenti 77.75 81.25 Tigania East 64.94 75.57 Tigania West 86.74 97.13 Page 12 NYERI County 79.97 82.84 Vegetation greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kieni 80.86 85.85 Mathira 78.13 82.22 Mukurweini 87.41 78.82 Town 88.68 86.89 Othaya 73.78 74.16 Tetu 75.82 76.65 KILIFI County 66.01 58.72 Enhanced vegetation condition across all the sub counties with vegetation Ganze 70.76 58.75 greenness above normal in all parts of the county. Kaloleni 69.31 56.01 Magarini 63.3 58.72 Malindi 69.39 63.43 Kilifi-North 64.89 58.52 Rabai 72.05 59.89 Kilifi-South 65.69 56.2 KWALE County 60.47 46.51 The county is in the normal vegetation greenness band. Kinango and Kinango 59.41 46.1 Lungalunga showed a deterioration in the vegetation condition recording a normal vegetation greenness in the month of August compared with the Lungalunga 59.65 40.52 situation in July during which the 2 sub counties recorded above normal Matuga 66.97 56.27 vegetation greenness. Msambweni 60.23 55.27 LAMU County 72.59 59.38 The county and its sub counties is in above normal vegetation greenness. Lamu East 76.93 65.63 Lamu West 70.08 55.77 TAITA County 80.57 85.96 The vegetation greenness is above normal across the county. TAVETA Mwatate 88.72 87.68 Taveta 82.09 87.68 Voi 75.42 82.61 Wundanyi 105.69 110.8 NAROK County 73.78 79.18 The vegetation greenness is in the above normal range for the period. Narok-East 74.85 81.22 Emurua Dikirr 62.24 68.32 Kilgoris 63.25 67.52 Narok-North 70.63 77.16 Narok-South 77.91 84.28 Narok-West 76.77 80.83 Page 13 Annex 2.0 Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, Field Monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long-term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicator are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular drought phase: normal, alert, alarm, emergency or recovery (Figure 2). Identifying the correct drought phase helps to guide the most appropriate response for that stage in the drought cycle. Table 12.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilisation Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Page 14 Figure 2.0: Drought Phase Classification 4. EMERGENCY All indicators are outside normal ranges 3. ALARM 5. RECOVERY Environmental and production indicators indicators return to fluctuate outside seasonal norms 2. ALERT 1. NORMAL indicators fluctuate indicators show no outside expected unusual fluctuations Page 15