APRIL 2023 1. Drought Situation Overview Despite the reported rains in most parts of the country in the last Dekad of March, the rains are yet to impact on production systems. The drought situation thus remains critical in twenty-two (21) of the 23 ASAL counties during the month of March 2023. The number of people in need of assistance still stands at 4.4 million currently following short rains (SRA) 2022 food security assessment. Two (2) counties namely Marsabit and Turkana remain in Emergency drought phase. Eight (8) counties namely Isiolo, Mandera, Kajiado, Samburu, Fig 1: Drought Phase Classification, March 2023 Tana River, Wajir, Kilifi and Kitui are in Alarm drought phase. Eleven (11) counties including; Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Lamu, Makueni, Laikipia, Narok, Nyeri, Meru, Kwale and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase. While two (2) counties; West Pokot and Tharaka Nithi are in Normal drought phase. Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 970,214 children aged 6 to 59 months and 142,179 pregnant and breastfeeding mothers are currently malnourished acutely in need of treatment. Figure 1.0 shows drought phase classification. The reported rains in most of the Arid counties are associated with flush floods which had negative impacts on the local livelihoods and critical facilities like roads. 1.1 Drought observed indicators 1.1.1 March Rainfall Performance The analysis of the March 2023 monthly rainfall performance indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties received moderate amounts of rainfall. The Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa and Pastoral North west counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu received good amounts of rainfall. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui and the Agro Pastoral cluster including Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Figure 2. March 2023 Rainfall Performance Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received average rainfall amounts during the month of March. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including Kwale, Kilifi, and Lamu did not receive good amounts of rainfall as compared to other clusters as shown figure 1.1.2 Rainfall outlook for April The rainfall outlook for the month of April is illustrated in figure 3. Most parts of the Arid and Semi Arid lands of Kenya are forecasted to be under Near Average rainfall to Near Average to above average rainfall. Parts of South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are forecasted to experience mainly Near Average rainfall with Kitui and Makueni counties falling under Near Average to above average rainfall. The Agro Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, laikipia and baringo are forecasted to experience Near-Average rainfall. The coastal Figure 3. April 2023 Rainfall forecast marginal agriculture counties includes; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties are forecasted to Near-Average rainfall. Pastoral North East (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa) are forecated to experience both Near-Average rainfall to above average rainfall while Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and marsabit) counties are are forecated to experience Near-Average rainfall. Figure 3.0. Shows rainfall forecast for April 2023. 1.1.3. Impacts of Rainfall during the month Flash floods were reported in Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Isiolo, Samburu, Narok, Taita Taveta and Wajir Counties. Flooding in Marsabit affected 1200 households (HH) and 2000 livestock deaths in North Horr while 1500 HH and 800 livestock deaths were affected in Moyale sub-county (Golbo ward). Additional 200HH and 150HH were affected in Laisamis and Saku sub-counties respectively. Floods in Garissa led to displacement of 80HH in Jilango and 28HH in barfin and cut off the road from Jilango to Modogashe during the month. In Isiolo, floods occurred in Kinna North and Kinna South locations which caused the submerge of villages and reported death of livestock deaths and displacement of 700 Households during the month. In Mandera, floods were reported around River Daua, Rhamu, Elwak, Finjaru and Rhamu Dimtu that led to displacements, of 150 Households during the week. Tana River county reported flash floods in Maramtu farms in Madogo. River Tana water levels were reported to be fluctuating between 3.9 and 4.1 metres which depicts high probability of flooding risks as the rains continue. Thus, need for closer monitoring and sensitization of communities along the river belt to move to safer grounds. Samburu reported floods in Samburu East in Naishamunya sub-location where 800 households were displaced and 625 small stock and households goods swept away while heavy rains in Wajir North and the Ethiopian highlands resulted in flash floods in parts of Wajir North and Eldas sub-counties that caused loss of lives, livestock and property and; displacement of persons, damage to school infrastructure and closure of some schools. Taita Taveta reported flash floods in Mwatate sub-county while heavy rains in Turkana rendered roads in Kibish impassable during the month. Heavy rains in Narok caused swelling of river Suswa which disrupted transport along the Narok-Nairobi highway and river Narok that busted and caused flooding in Narok town while Mugor river busted its banks and destroyed a bridge in addition to causing displacement of approximately 200 households. 1.2 Vegetation condition Figure 3 compares the vegetation condition index (VCI) in March 2023 with that of the previous month of February 2023. Generally, the vegetation condition in the month of March showed slight improvement when compared to that of the month of February 2023 due to the rains received. The reported rains are expected to impact positively on vegetation regeneration. February 2023 March 2023 Figure 3: Maps comparing Vegetation Conditions (VCIs) of February and March The month of March 2023 indicated an improvement in vegetation condition across the Arid and Semi-Arid Counties (ASAL) as compared to the previous month of February 2023. The improvement in vegetation condition is associated with impacts of early onset of the March April May (MAM) rainfall season which has led to minor regeneration of vegetation in most counties. Two (2) counties including; Mandera and Tana River were in Extreme vegetation deficit. The following three (3) counties; Wajir, Isiolo and Marsabit are in Severe vegetation deficit. The following five (5) counties including; Samburu, Garissa, Laikipia, Kilifi and Taita Taveta are in Moderate vegetation deficit while three (3) counties including; Turkana, Kajiado and Kitui recorded Normal vegetation greenness. The following ten (10) counties including; Baringo, Tharaka Nithi, West Pokot, Embu, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri, Kwale, Lamu and Narok recorded Above normal vegetation greenness. The current vegetation condition in March 2023 is better as compared to the previous month, February 2023 as shown in (Figure 2). A summary of the vegetation condition across ASAL counties as at end of March 2023 is provided in Figure 1. The situation for each county disaggregated by sub-county is provided in Table1. Table 1: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), March 2023 Category County Sub Counties (No) Extreme (2) (13) Mandera, Tana Mandera (Lafey, North, Banissa, West, South, East), Marsabit River, (Moyale, Saku), Wajir (East), Garissa (Daadab), Tana River (Bura, Galole), Taita Taveta (Taveta), Severe (3) (17) vegetation Marsabit, Wajir, Isiolo, Marsabit (Laisamis, North Horr), Wajir (Tarbaj, North, South), deficit Samburu (East), Garissa (Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera), Isiolo (North, South), Tana River (Garsen), Kajiado (South), Kitui (Mwingi Central), Kilifi (North, Malindi), Taita Taveta (Mwatate) Moderate (5) (20) vegetation Samburu, Garissa, Baringo (Mogotio), Turkana (East, South, Central), Wajir (West, deficit Laikipia, Kilifi, Taita Eldas), Samburu (North), Laikipia (North, West), Kajiado (East), Taveta, Kitui (Kitui East, Mwingi North, Mwingi West), Makueni (Kilome), Meru (Igembe North), Kilifi (Kaloleni, South, Magarini, Rabai), Taita Taveta (Wundanyi) Normal (3) (12) vegetation Turkana, Kajiado, Baringo (South, Tiaty), Turkana (Loima), Samburu (West), greenness Kitui, Laikipia (East), West Pokot (Kacheliba), Embu (Mbeere North), Kitui (Kitui South), Meru (Igembe Central, Igembe, South), Kilifi (Ganze), Taita Taveta (Voi) Above normal (10) (51) Vegetation Baringo, Tharaka Baringo (Central, North, Ravine), Turkana (West, North), Garissa greenness Nithi, West Pokot, (Township, Ijara), Kajiado (Central, North, West), Tharaka Nithi Embu, Makueni, (Chuka, Maara, Tharaka), West Pokot (Kapenguria, Pokot South, Meru, Nyeri, Kwale, Sigor), Embu (Manyatta, Mbeere South, Runyenjes), Kitui Lamu, Narok, (Central, Rural, West), Makueni (Makueni, Mbooni, Kaiti, Kibwezi east, Kibwezi west), Meru (Buuri, Central Imenti, North Imenti, South Imenti, Tigania east, Tigania West), Nyeri (Kieni, Mathira, Mukurweini, Nyeri town, Othaya, Tetu), Kwale (Kinango, Lunga Lunga, Matuga, Msambweni), Lamu (East, West), Narok (Emurua Dikirr, Kilgoris, Narok east, Narok north, Narok south, Narok west) 1.3 Livestock production 1.3.1 Pasture and browse condition The state of pasture remained poor in 65 percent of arid and semi-arid counties while browse condition remained poor in 30 percent in arid and semi-arid counties remained poor as shown in Table 2. The current pasture and browse condition are below normal as compared to normal years with slight improvement realized when compared to the previous month of February. The current pasture and browse condition are under generation process following the ongoing March-April-May long rains. Pasture and browse have started sprouting in majority of the counties. Table 2.0: Pasture and browse condition, March 2023 Pasture condition Browse condition Baringo Isiolo Baringo Embu West Pokot Embu Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Garissa Kwale Makueni Isiolo Kilifi Meru Mandera Kajiado Kitui Narok Marsabit Kitui Laikipia Nyeri Samburu Kwale Lamu Tharaka Nithi Turkana Laikipia Makueni West Pokot Lamu Mandera Meru Marsabit Narok Samburu Nyeri Taita Taveta Taita Taveta Tana River Tana River Turkana Tharaka Nithi Wajir Wajir 1.3.2 Livestock body condition The current livestock body condition for cattle was poor at 43 percent, fair at 52 percent and good at 4 percent in the arid and semi-arid counties. The body condition for goats cattle was poor at 30 percent, fair at 52 percent and good at 17 percent. Generally, the current body condition of most livestock is below normal in comparison to similar periods during a normal year however there is slight improvement as compared to the previous month as shown in Table 3. Table 3.0: Livestock body condition, March 2023 Cattle Goats Garissa Baringo Kwale Garissa Baringo Kwale Isiolo Embu Isiolo Embu Lamu Kajiado Kilifi Mandera Kajiado Taita Taveta Laikipia Kitui Marsabit Kilifi West Pokot Mandera Lamu Samburu Kitui Marsabit Makueni Turkana Laikipia Samburu Meru Wajir Makueni Tana River Narok Meru Turkana Nyeri Narok Wajir Taita Taveta Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Tana River West Pokot Tharaka Nithi 1.3.3 Milk production Milk production during the month of March showed a slight improvement in trend as compared to the previous month of February in most of the counties. Six counties including; Baringo, Kajiado, Meru, Narok, Samburu and Tharaka Nithi recorded an improving trend while Makueni and Narok counties milk production was above normal. The current milk production status is below average as compared to normal year in 20 of the 23 counties. Milk production trends in the 23 ASAL counties is presented in table 4.0. Table 4.0: Milk production, March 2023 Milk Makueni Tharaka Baringo Baringo Embu Kilifi Narok Nithi Embu Kajiado Garissa Kitui Production Garissa Meru Isiolo Laikipia Isiolo Narok Kwale Makueni Kajiado Samburu Lamu Mandera Kilifi Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Marsabit Kitui West Taita Taveta Kwale Pokot Tana River Laikipia Turkana Lamu Wajir 1.3.4. Livestock diseases Livestock diseases were reported in Garissa, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Baringo, Turkana, Kajiado, Kilifi, Meru North, Narok and West Pokot. The diseases included Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Pest Petis Ruminantes (PPR) and foot and mouth diseases. 1.3.5 Cattle prices Most of the ASAL counties (73 percent) of cattle prices were below normal. The current cattle prices are below normal in most of the counties in comparison to similar periods during a normal year however an improving trend has been noted across some counties including Embu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Narok and Samburu as illustrated in Table 6. Table 6.0: Cattle prices, March 2023 Cattle Kwale Embu Baringo Embu Garissa Baringo Lamu Makueni Garissa Isiolo Kilifi Mandera Tana River West Pokot Isiolo Kajiado Kitui Nyeri Kajiado Laikipia Kwale Tana River Kilifi Marsabit Lamu Wajir Kitui Meru Makueni Laikipia Narok Taita Taveta Mandera Samburu Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Turkana Meru West Pokot 1.3.6 Goat Prices Goat prices in majority of the ASAL counties were below LTA when compared to the previous month of February. Most of the counties recorded stable trend with only two counties of Kilifi and Nyeri reporting worsening trend due to the deteriorating pasture and browse conditions. The following counties namely Baringo, Embu, Isiolo, Marsabit, Samburu and Tharaka Nithi recorded an improving trend as shown in table 7.0 below. Table 7.0: Goat prices, March 2023 Goat Laikipia Baringo Garissa Baringo Makueni Kwale Makueni Kitui Isiolo Embu Taita Taveta Nyeri Kilifi Lamu Mandera Isiolo Embu Tana River Samburu Marsabit Marsabit Kajiado Tharaka Nithi Taita Taveta Meru Samburu Kitui Wajir Nyeri Tharaka Nithi Meru West Pokot Turkana Tana River Kajiado Turkana Kwale Wajir Embu Narok Narok Garissa Baringo Kilifi 1.4 Crop production Crop production is mainly practiced in coastal marginal agriculture and south east marginal agriculture cluster. Table 8 below summarizes the current state of crop production in these clusters. Table 8.0: Current status of crop production Cluster Counties Current state of crop production Coastal Marginal Kilifi Land preparation ongoing Agriculture Harvesting of Pineapples Kwale Minimal land preparation had begun South East Marginal Kitui Land preparation and planting for the season was on-going across the Agriculture livelihood zones Makueni Farmers were busy planting drought-resistant and early maturing crops varieties as per the advisories developed Tharaka Nithi Land preparing and planting was the main engagements in the county, for early planters, crops were at the germination stage Increased incidences of pests especially quelea infestation on farms 1.4.1 Maize prices In the month under review, maize prices were above avarage across ASAL counties due to consecutive failed seasons as shown in Table 9.0. Table 9.0: Maize prices, March 2023 Above LTA Atclose Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening to LTA Maize Embu Mandera Baringo Kitui Kilifi Narok Garissa Laikipia Isiolo Kwale Kilifi Lamu Taita Taveta Marsabit Wajir Nyeri Samburu West Pokot Meru Baringo West Pokot Garissa Tana River Isiolo Makueni Kajiado Kajiado 1.5 WATER ACCESS 1.5.1 Access to water for households Distances to water for households in 15 counties is currently above the LTA. In comparison with the previous month, there is a general improving trend in distance to household from water source. Arid (pastoral) counties distances to household water access ranged between 3.3 kilometers (km) and 16.3 km with Isiolo recording lowest and Mandera recording highest distances to household water access. In semi-arid the distance ranged between 2.4km to 9.7km recorded by Narok and Meru counties respectively. 11 counties including; Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri and Wajir showed an improving trend in household access distances to water sources. The trend in distances walked by households to access water is provided in Table Table 10.0: Distance from households to main water sources, March 2023 Indicato Current status Trend r Above LTA At LTA Below LTA Improving Stable Worsening Distance Garissa Embu Baringo Baringo Makueni Kilifi Kajiado Marsabit Isiolo Embu Mandera Kitui Kilifi Samburu Laikipia Garissa Turkana Kwale househol Kitui Narok Isiolo West Pokot Lamu ds to Kwale Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Samburu main Lamu Laikipia Taita Taveta Makueni Marsabit Tana River Mandera Meru Tharaka Nithi sources Meru Narok Nyeri Nyeri Taita Taveta Wajir 1.5.2 Access to water for livestock In comparison with the previous month, the current trekking distance to water source from grazing areas is mainly above the LTA in 13 counties. The following counties including; Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Wajir, West Pokot and Baringo recorded an improvement in trend. The average trekking distance for livestock for the month under review in Arid counties ranged between 22 kilometers and 8.7 kilometers with Baringo county recording lowest distances and Mandera highest. In the case of semi-arid counties, the distance to water sources for livestock ranged between 3.2 kilometers to 13.3 kilometers with Narok recording the lowest and Meru highest. Table 11.0. shows the trend of distances for livestock grazing area to water main source. Table 11.0: Distance from livestock grazing area to main water sources, March 2023 Distance Isiolo Embu Baringo Embu Kwale Kilifi Kajiado Kilifi Garissa Garissa Mandera Kitui Kitui Marsabit Kwale Isiolo Taita Taveta Lamu livestock Laikipia Wajir Lamu Kajiado Turkana Makueni grazing area Makueni Narok Laikipia Samburu to main Mandera Tharaka Nithi Marsabit Tana River Meru Meru Tharaka Nithi Nyeri Narok sources Samburu Nyeri Taita Wajir Taveta West Pokot Tana River Baringo 1.6 Terms of trade The trends in terms of trade (ToT) between the relative prices of goats and maize in ASAL counties was below the long-term average as a result of low purchasing power of households across all ASAL counties. This resulted in high commodity prices, however, an improving trend has been noted in seven counties of Embu, Isiolo, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River and Tharaka Nithi as shown in Table 12. Table 12.0: Terms of Trade, March 2023 Terms of Isiolo Baringo Embu Garissa Kitui trade Embu Isiolo Kilifi Laikipia (ToT) Garissa Mandera Baringo Kwale Kitui Marsabit Wajir Lamu Kwale Samburu Narok Nyeri Makueni Tana River Turkana Mandera Tharaka Nithi Kajiado Meru Meru Kilifi Makueni Laikipia Taita Taveta Samburu West Pokot Isiolo 1.7. Health and nutrition Table 13 shows the trend in the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC) across the ASAL counties. Baringo, Nyeri, Kajiado, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Tana River, Makueni, Marsabit, Turkana, Embu, Kwale, Meru, Samburu, Kitui, Tharaka Nithi, Garissa and Taita Taveta counties recorded MUAC above the long-term average. This is mostly attributed to the continued reduced milk consumption at household level due to a decrease in milk production, as well as poor dietary diversity, poor child feeding practices, and reduced food intake at household level. Twelve counties recorded a worsening in trend in the month under review while Kilifi, Lamu, Meru and Narok recorded an improving trend. Table 12.0: Children at risk of malnutrition (MUAC), March 2023 Above LTA At LTA Below Improving Stable Worsening Baringo Kilifi Kilifi Embu Baringo Nyeri Laikipia Lamu Isiolo Garissa MUAC Kajiado Lamu Meru Kajiado Laikipia Isiolo Narok Narok Mandera Tharaka-Nithi Wajir West- Marsabit Wajir Mandera Pokot Nyeri Kitui Tana River Tana River Taita-Taveta Makueni West Pokot Kwale Marsabit Makueni Turkana Samburu Embu Turkana Garissa 2.0 Drought phase classification Table 14 sums up the trends in drought phase classification as at the end of March 2023. On the basis of the range of indicators monitored above, eleven (11) counties including Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Laikipia, Narok, Nyeri (Kieni), Lamu, Makueni, Meru (North), Kwale, and Taita Taveta are in the Alert drought phase, while two (2) counties namely West Pokot and Tharaka Nithi are in the Normal drought phase. Eight (8) counties namely; Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Samburu, Tana River, Wajir, Kilifi, and Kitui are in Alarm drought phase. Two (2) counties, Marsabit and Turkana are in Emergency drought phase. During the month under review, majority of the counties have reported an improving trend, four (4) counties recorded a stable trend, while four (4) counties reported a worsening trend due to delayed onset of the long rains in these four counties. Overall, the drought situation remains grave in twenty-one (21) ASAL counties. Table 14.0: Drought phase classification, March 2023 Drought Trend Improving Stable WorseningDeteriorating Normal West Pokot, Tharaka Nithi Alert Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Lamu, Makueni, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Laikipia, Narok, Nyeri (Kieni), Meru (North), Alarm Isiolo, Kajiado, Mandera, Kilifi, Kitui Samburu, Tana River, Wajir, Emergency Marsabit, Turkana Recovery Recommendations Food and safety nets Provision of food assistance and scaling up of cash transfers targeting households which are currently food insecure as a result of the prevailing drought and other shocks. Livestock sector Facilitating safe migrations for the pastoralists moving back to their settlements. Treatment and vaccination against emerging livestock diseases. Water sector Rehabilitation and maintenance of water facilities. Provision of water treatment tabs Procurement and distribution of water storage tanks for roof catchment harvest. Health and nutrition sector Support on hygiene and sanitation promotions. Provisions for severe acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF). Supplies for moderate acute malnutrition - Ready to Use Supplementary Food (RUSF). Education sector Enhance hygiene promotion in learning institutions. Provision of food to subsidize school fees in boarding secondary schools. Peace and security sector Facilitating intrainter communities peace dialogues and resource use agreements. Coordination of peace and security activities in conflict prone counties. Coordination Support County Steering Groups (CSGs) to effectively coordinate drought response activities. Table 15: Vegetation Condition Index (VCI-3 month) as at 26th March 2023 BARINGO County 44.76 54.9 The county recorded above normal vegetation greenness during the month under review. Mogotio recorded moderate vegetation deficit Central 69.62 83.34 North 50.22 66.27 South 35.84 41.16 Ravine 74.68 98.16 Mogotio 28.23 31.24 40.57 Tiaty 48.98 MANDERA County -5.7 -18.86 The county recorded worsening trend in vegetation condition to extreme Lafey -10.8 -24.87 vegetation deficit in the month of March. North -11.72 -31.71 Banissa -5.49 -22.63 West -3.37 -13.97 South 1.87 -5.31 East -5.13 -12.89 TURKANA County 32.39 43 East 23.78 23.2 South 25.35 27.55 The county recorded an improving trend in vegetation greenness to Loima 30.09 36.34 normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. Turkana West Central 28.2 27.56 and Turkana North improved to above normal vegetation greenness. West 39.97 57.65 North 36.79 57.35 MARSABIT County 8.2 10.93 The county recorded severe vegetation greenness which was an Laisamis 8.5 12.83 improvement from extreme vegetation greenness during the previous Moyale 4.24 2.48 month of February. North Horr 9.1 12.06 Saku 7.1 9.9 WAJIR County 10.5 15.8 The county recorded severe vegetation deficit. Wajir west and Eldas Tarbaj 10.69 15.41 improved to moderate vegetation deficit. North 7.86 12.86 South 10.88 10.46 West 14.25 32.87 Eldas 10.67 26.57 East 7.59 5.33 SAMBURU County 23.06 25.04 The county remained stable at moderate vegetation greenness during the East 17.93 17.88 month under review. Samburu west improved to normal vegetation deficit. North 26.37 29.85 West 32.66 37.76 GARISSA County 29.07 24.02 The county experienced a stable trend in vegetation condition index at Balambala 17.82 14.78 moderate vegetation deficit during the month of March. Township and Township 52.15 63.11 Ijara were in above normal vegetation greenness. Ijara 61.11 69.82 Fafi 27.34 13.04 Lagdera 12.1 19.26 Dadaab 16.41 2.75 ISIOLO County 12.13 17.46 The county and all of its sub counties were stable at severe vegetation North 10.04 16.19 deficit during the month under review. South 15.31 19.4 TANA RIVER County 18.53 8.39 The county and all two of its sub counties worsened to extreme vegetation Bura 12.16 4.59 deficit during the month March. Galole 11.78 -4.08 Garsen 28.16 19.42 KAJIADO County 36.32 46.5 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at moderate Central 43.16 65.5 vegetation deficit. East 28.55 26.27 North 64.72 86.09 South 17.04 16.98 West 50.79 67.52 LAIKIPIA County 27.32 30.53 The County recorded moderate vegetation deficit which was stable when East 48.6 49.88 compared to the previous month of February. North 21.87 27.57 West 27.26 26.75 THARAKA County 72.57 79.33 The county and its sub counties recorded a general stability in vegetation NITHI Chuka 86.04 91.07 condition to above normal vegetation greenness during the month of Maara 107.92 127.25 March. Tharaka 56.19 59.59 WEST County 38.05 51.61 The county improved to above normal vegetation greenness from normal POKOT Kacheliba 29.77 42.6 vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kapenguria 46.67 60.19 Pokot south 56.38 72.23 Sigor 35.03 48.56 EMBU County 71.68 68.11 The county and three of its sub-counties recorded above normal Manyatta 101.54 120.12 vegetation greenness during the month of March. Mbeere north 60.93 49.11 Mbeere south 62.04 51.91 Runyenjes 98.35 112.98 County 45.21 39.46 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at normal vegetation greenness during the month of March when compared with the Kitui central 65.35 66.26 KITUI previous month of February Kitui east 37.63 27.57 Kitui rural 84.68 94.58 Kitui south 51.62 48.14 Kitui west 68.89 73.27 Mwingi central 28.7 16.16 Mwingi north 38.02 31.79 Mwingi west 34.46 23.38 County 73.85 76.45 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness at above normal Kaiti 91.26 100 vegetation greenness during the month under review. Kilome subcounty MAKUENI Kibwezi east 79.08 87 worsened to moderate vegetation deficit. Kibwezi west 64.02 59.25 Kilome 38.34 30.76 Makueni 86.62 94.07 Mbooni 84.76 88.88 County 68.53 74.92 The county recorded a stability in vegetation condition at above normal Buuri 72.82 87.41 vegetation greenness during the month of March Central Imenti 102.83 129.14 Igembe central 48.17 40.92 Igembe north 33.38 23.34 Igembe south 54.87 47 North Imenti 98.66 123.64 South Imenti 113.7 143.2 Tigania east 64.62 65.01 Tigania west 89.76 103.84 County 93.65 119.36 The county and all its sub counties recorded a stability in vegetation NYERI Kieni 88.53 110.55 condition at above normal vegetation greenness condition. Mathira 101.38 131.31 Mukurweini 99.71 129.91 Nyeri town 89.1 124.17 Othaya 99.78 125.99 Tetu 103.57 135.85 County 31.63 33.76 The vegetation condition in the county remained the same in moderate KILIFI Ganze 32.93 45 vegetation deficit during the month under review. However, Kilifi north Kaloleni 15.26 30.32 and Malindi sub counties worsened to severe vegetation deficit. Kilifi north 28.01 14.2 Kilifi south 13.67 26.05 Magarini 35.37 33.49 Malindi 24.41 17.32 Rabai 15.18 29.59 KWALE County 38.83 60.45 The county recorded an improvement in vegetation condition index during Kinango 36.76 62.36 the month of March from normal vegetation greenness to above normal Lunga lunga 40.94 58.31 vegetation greenness Matuga 40.5 58.27 Msambweni 49.28 53.42 LAMU County 63.63 73.28 The County and all of its sub-counties recorded above normal vegetation Lamu east 58.77 70.52 greenness during the month under review Lamu west 66.45 74.88 TAITA County 33.42 33.49 The county was stable at moderate vegetation deficit during the month TAVETA Mwatate 23.66 16.31 under review. Taveta subcounty worsened to extreme vegetation deficit. Taveta 19.76 9.29 Voi 42.69 49.53 Wundanyi 25.26 23.23 County 69.51 94.93 Emurua Dikirr 91.4 104.3 NAROK Kilgoris 81.88 104.24 The county recorded a stability in vegetation greenness condition at above Narok east 50.81 61.44 normal vegetation greenness during the month of March. Narok north 76.56 95.17 Narok south 66.15 96.25 Narok west 69.54 102.17 Table 14.0: Indicators monitored by the drought early warning system Type of indicator Examples of indicators monitored Types of impact Biophysical Rainfall data Environmental Vegetation condition State of water sources Production Livestock body condition Livestock production Milk production Crop production Livestock migration Livestock mortality Crop production Access Terms of trade (meatmaize) Markets Milk consumption Access to food and water Distances to water Utilization MUAC (Mid-Upper Arm Circumference) Nutrition Coping strategies Coping strategies Food consumption score Summary of the drought early warning system Each month, field monitors collect data in a number of sentinel sites across 23 arid and semi-arid counties. This is then complemented by information from other sources, particularly satellite data. For all indicators, the current value is compared with the long- term average for the time of year in order to establish whether it falls within seasonal norms. Four types of indicators are monitored, capturing different kinds of impact (Table 12). The combined analysis from all four indicator groups then determines the particular