Date: 1981-05-12
Speaker: ROBERT C. BYRD (democrat)
Chamber: S

Mr. President. passage by tite Sienate of the first budget resolution is a tribute to the Presidents popularity and power of persuasion. The fact that the Senate will pass this resolution reflects the national mood that his program be given a chance. There are two ways to look at a budget. A budget can be the articulation of targets and troals. But as well as being a wish list. a budget should also be a blueprint which tells the Nation. with some degree of accuracy. where the Federal budget will be In the next fiscal year and in the several fiscal years down the road. I will vote for this budget resolution because I hope that the President will succeed in meeting his optimistic economic assumptions of high levels of growth. with significantly lower price increases and interest rates. I share his goal of reduced domestic spending. Increased defense spending. and significant tax reductions. And I will vote to give the President a chance to achieve his targets and goals. But I have severe reservations about this budget as an accurate blueprint for the coming years. Because the budget assumes $27 billion in unidentified savings. because It employs unrealistically optimistic economic assumptions. because it falls to account for a second tax bill which the administration has promised. because it assumes a change in the costofiving adjustment for social security and other programsI do not believe that the budget will be balanced in fiscal year 1084 as this resolution promises. I hope I am wrong. I am voting In support of this resolution because I want to give the administrations economists and budget experts the benefit of the doubt. But as I look at their track record to date. I am not encouraged. Thtq resolution Provides for total outlays in fiscal year 1981 of $662.7 billion. During conxgressional consideration of the second budget resolution for fiscal year 1081. which this resolution amends. Caspar Weinberger. speaking for the President. Promised that outlay levels could be held to $620 billion in this fiscal year. If the administration misestimated the spending levels for this fiscal year by $43 billion In a matter of a few months. one must wonder whether their blueprint for a balanced budget 3 years fronm now Is likely to prove accurate. In the last several months. I have talked with thousands of my constituents from West Virginia. The message I receive is largely consistefit. Many of them are concerned about the Impact and the fairness of some of the budget cuts. Many of them are skeptical about the KempRoth tax cut. Many of them do not think the Presidents plan will work. But they overwhelmingly believe that his program deserves a chance. I truly hope that the economy experiences the dramatic recovery the administration predicts. I truly hope that Inflation will drop from 11.1 to 8.3 percent in just 1 year. and to 6.2 Percent the following year. I must admit that as much as I hope to see these dramatic improvements. my expectation Is that we may be disappointed. This first budget resolution Is a target. and only a target. There Is nothing binding about it. MY vote for it Is not an endorsement of KempRoth. Nor do I endorsethe administrations rosy economic assumptions. Nor do I want to give the Impression that the budget can be balanced under the administrations program. I have very serious doubts that the 1984 budget Is balanced on anything other than paper. I think that the balanced budget in this resolution is based on unsound projections and Juggled figulressome of which were produced out of thin air. I am very doubtful that the $45 billion deficit for fiscal year 1984 that the Budget Committee projected prior to the Easter recess has been eliminated. I believe It has been disguised behind blue smoke and mirrors. Also. I doubt that the Congress will agree to Increase Presidential impoundment powers. I believe that the $27 billion In unidentified savings can fairly be characterized "as a gleam In Mr. Stockmans eye." I find it curious that the Budget Committee would Include unidentified savings which work to reduce the deficit. but fall to include the revenue luss from the unidentified provisions of the second tax bill which the administration has promised. and which would of course increase the deficit. Although all of these doubts concernIng this resolution are serious. perhaps my most serious doubt Is the assumption of savings by reducing benefits for millions of retirees in this country. Whether the COLA is changed or the savings result fronm the social security changes the President proposed today. the hole in the promised social safety net Is growing larger. We are asked to assume that the Congress will enact legislation that was revealed only today. No hearings have been held. Most of us have not had an opportunity to review anything other than the briefing materials. Yet. we have to assume savings of $7.9 billion in fiscal year 1982. $7.3 billion in fiscal year 1983. and $7.4 billion in fiscal year 1984. 1. for one. have serious doubts that this administration and this budget resolution will achieve these savings. The President will receive a victory in the passage of this first budget resolution. His program Is being given a chance. But It Is my genuine hope that he will be willing to relent on the Issue of KempRoth. and recognize that a tax cut which only gives 20 percent of its revenue to productivity will not bring about the supplyside response necessary to effect the economic recovery which we all desire. Victory for the President in this first target budget resolution should not be misinterpreted by the public or the administration as a mandate for KempRoth. It Is not. When the tax bill is written In the Ways and Means and Finance Committees. there will be substantial changes made to the Presidents tax program. I would urge the administration to work cooperatively with the Congress in framing a tax cut which truly will bring the supplyside response which most of us now feel is necessary. In my remarks on the Senate floor summing up the Democratic strategy on the reconciliation resolution. I said: From the start Democrats have had a strategy to deal with the budget. All along we have said we would support the dimensions of the Presidents cuts. disagree on some of the specifics. and rework his tax proposal. We have witnessed that strategy at work this week. We will see it at work throughout the long budget cycle. Mr. President. this continues to be the strategy of Senate Democrats. Some Senators from my side of the aisle will vote against the resolution because of the dimension of the tax cuts which it asstunes. because of their disagreement over the economic assumptions. or because they do not believe that the budget can be balanced in fiscal year 1984. Some will vote "no" because they disagree with the spending priorities. Others. like myself. for reasons I have explained. will vote for this resolution. But in the final analysis. when all the votes have been tallied. it will be clear. I believe. that the Senate is giving the Presidents program its chance.