As summer comes to an end officially on Sept. 23, the leaves are already falling off the trees. But it might not be for the reason you suspect.
The Historic Triangle is low on rainfall at four inches below average for August and September. Although meteorologists say extended periods of dry weather are normal for the region in the fall, forecasters predict above normal rainfall and temperatures in October, which usually average around 60 degrees.
Chris Fisher, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service Wakefield office, said the region’s dry spells are most often due to prolonged periods of high pressure.
“You’re running well below normal for the month ... For us it’s usually prolonged periods of high pressure, (we) don’t have any weather systems moving through to give us any rain,” Fisher said. “Right now they’re showing the greatest probability for next month of above-normal precipitation. They are showing above normal temperatures for October, as well.”
Although people may enjoy the blue skies, it can take a toll on the area’s landscaping and foliage. This time of year the city does its seeding, fertilizing and turf maintenance. Will Fidler, Williamsburg’s landscape superintendent, said the city has a watering tank and may increase water in certain areas, but the trees in the area are used to a dry spell this time of year.
Matthew Trowbridge, the College of William and Mary’s arborist, said the best way to make sure your trees stay healthy during a drought or dry conditions, is to water at night.
“The best time to water a tree, especially a large tree, is at night because that water is saturating into the soil and it’s cooler than it was four hours ago when the sun was beating on it,” Trowbridge said. "When the sunlight comes out those leaves need water and it’s right there, available."
Despite the dry weather, this time of year and around March, are the best times to plant trees Trowbridge said. But to make sure they have the most success, look for trees that are native to Virginia, such as White oaks, Flowering dogwoods and Eastern redbuds.
“All trees in the world are affected by weather, if it’s too dry, too wet. But if you’re going to get a tree or a shrub, and you’re at the nursery, one of the main questions you want to remember to ask is where was this plant propagated?” Trowbridge said. “You want to have a tree that’s used to the amount of sunlight it gets every day, the overall weather patterns.”
And in preparation for harsher temperatures and storms that hit Virginia in the winter, it’s a good time to prune trees with overextended limbs that could fall or cause the tree to fall.
“When you have a limb that’s going really far out, extending ... you want to get some of the weight off,” Trowbridge said. “So when there’s wet snow or heavy rain or ice, it’s not going to snap this whole guy off. You always, whenever you want to prune a tree, cut too little than too much.”
Too dry to burn?
Even though the weather has been drier than usual, you can still have a bonfire.
>> The City of Williamsburg has regulations on outside burning between February and April, Fire Marshal Carry Middlebrook said. The current dry spell shouldn’t affect anything.
>> In James City County, permits are issued by the Fire Department for bonfires, open burning of debris waste and agricultural/forest management burns, within specific guidelines. Check the website at jamescitycountyva.gov/2710/Permits for specific information.


Tuesday, April 30, 2019
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) seas were 2.8 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 15.2 secs from 180 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 3.0 ft @ 10.3 secs from 328 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 14.0 secs from 180 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southwest at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 59.9 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 1.2 ft @ 14.9 secs from 195 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.3 ft @ 14.8 secs from 199 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.5 ft @ 15.7 secs from 214 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.0 ft @ 14.8 secs from 200 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.6 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 6.1 ft @ 9.8 secs from 319 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 10-14 kts. Water temp 55.0 degs (042) and 52.0 (013).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (4/30) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing waves at thigh to waist high and pretty warbled from southwest wind but not yet whitecapped. Protected breaks were waist high with luck and soft but clean. At Santa Cruz southern hemi swell was producing sets at waist to maybe chest high and clean but a little funky from tide. In Southern California/Ventura surf was thigh to maybe waist high and clean and weak. In North Orange Co surf was waist to maybe chest high on the sets and warbled and soft with light north wind. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were getting southern hemi swell with waves waist to maybe chest high on the peak and clean but with some local northerly lump intermixed. North San Diego had surf at waist high and lined up and clean but pretty closed out. Hawaii's North Shore was getting fading northwest swell with waves chest high and clean and lined up at the more focused breaks. The South Shore was thigh high on the sets and clean and soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves thigh high and heavily textured from northeast trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (4/30) in California small local northerly windswell was producing barely rideable surf at exposed breaks. And minimal southern hemi swell was starting to show at south facing breaks. Leftover swell was hitting Hawaii from a small cutoff low that produced 22-23 ft seas northwest of Hawaii on Fri (4/26). Another gale developed approaching the Northern Dateline region on Sun-Mon (4/30) producing up to 26 ft seas aimed east.Not much to result from it. And possibly another gale to track off Japan on Thurs (5/2) producing 23 ft seas aimed east but of no interest. In the Southern Hemisphere a weak gale formed in the Central Pacific Fri-Mon (4/22) producing seas to barely 30 ft seas lifting northeast. That swell is lapping into California now. On Wed-Fri (5/3) a stronger gale is to develop south of New Zealand with seas to 43 ft lifting gently east-northeast with secondary fetch producing 34-36 ft seas pushing east across the South Pacific through Sun (5/5). And maybe a weaker on to follow.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday (4/30) the jetstream was mostly consolidated tracking east off Japan forming a trough halfway to the dateline and being fed by up to 140 kts winds offering some support for gale development there. East of there the jet split with some energy tracking north up over the Bering Sea with most energy falling into a small pinched trough in the Central Gulf offering support for low pressure development but dissipating from there. Given the change in season the jet looks unlikely to provide much energy from here forward. Over the next 72 hours the West Pacific trough is to build while moving to the dateline later Wed (5/1) being fed by 120-130 kts winds building to 150 kts on Thurs (5/2) while starting to pinch off offering some support for gale development. East of there the jet is to lift hard north pushing up into Alaska offering only support for high pressure development in the Gulf of Alaska. Beyond 72 hours the northern branch is to build but lifting north generally tracking off Japan lifting northeast and continuing east just south of the Aleutians Fri (5/3) through Tues (5/7) offering no support for gale development. We will be starting to focus on the southern hemisphere jetstream for future forecasts.
On Tuesday (4/30) small swell from a gale that developed northwest of Hawaii was fading in the Islands (see Hawaiian Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
On Thursday AM (4/25) a low pressure system was starting to build just east of the dateline producing a tiny area of 25-30 kt south winds targeting the Aleutians. In the evening fetch is to wrap into the gales northwest quadrant building to 35 kts over a small area starting to fall south with 18-20 ft seas over tiny area at 45N 177W falling south targeting the West Pacific. Fetch is fall south on Fri AM (4/26) at 30 kts with 22 ft seas at 40N 17W targeting Hawaii well. This system to dissipate in the evening with 25-30 kt north winds and seas fading from 18 ft at 37.5N 172W targeting Hawaii. Low odds of small 12 sec period swell resulting for Hawaii.
Oahu: Residuals fading Tues AM (4/30) fading from 3.3 ft @ 10 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees
West Dateline Gale
A small gale developed mid-way between the Kuril's and the dateline on Sun AM (4/28) with 35 kt west winds and seas building from 23 ft at 41.5N 163E aimed east. In the evening 35 kt west winds were lifting northeast with 25 ft seas at 44.5N 170E aimed east. On Mon AM (4/29) the gale held together with 30 kt west winds still lifting northeast over the North Dateline region with seas 22 ft at 47.5N 171.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to move over the Aleutians on the North Dateline region and fade with barely 30 kt west winds and seas fading from 21 ft just south of the Central Aleutians at 51N 177E aimed east. Nothing else to follow. Maybe some small swell is to be pushing east.
Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (5/2) building to 2.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Fri (5/3) at 2.5 ft @ 12 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (5/4) dropping from 2.5 ft @ 11 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Tues (4/30) north winds are 20-25 kts early over all of North CA still producing windswell with south winds 5 kts for all of Central CA. Theoretically it's supposed to snow over the Tahoe region in the afternoon to early evening. Wednesday (5/1) the gradient is to collapse with north winds fading from 20 kts over North CA early and dropping from there with north winds over Central CA at 5-10 kts with windswell gone. Low pressure is to be circulating 600 nmiles west of Central CA cutting the legs out of high pressure to the north. Thursday (5/2) the low is to approaching Central CA with a light northwest flow 15 kts along the North CA coast and 5-10 kts for Central CA. Friday (5/3) the low is to be hold off Central CA with northwest winds 10-15 kts early fading to 5-10 kts later. Saturday (5/4) weak high pressure is to build offshore as the low moves south over open ocean and fades with north winds 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and north winds 10 kts south of the to Pt Conception. No windswell expected From Thursday onward. Sunday (5/5) light winds from the northwest 5-10 kts are forecast for all of North and Central CA. No change on Monday (5/6). Tuesday (5/7) high pressure returns with north winds 20-25 kts for North CA early and building with windswell redeveloping for North and Central CA.
2-3 inches of snow for Tahoe on Tues (4/30) and 1-2 inchs for Mammoth on Sun (5/5). Not believable.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).
A weak gale traversed the Central South Pacific pushing swell to the northeast (see Central South Pacific Gale below). Another gale developed in the Southeast Pacific behind that producing swell pushing north (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours the models suggest a gale is to develop just south of New Zealand on Thurs AM (5/2) with 40-45 kt southwest winds pushing east-northeast with seas building from 30 ft at 58S 177E aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch is to build to 50 kts from the southwest moving towards the Central South Pacific with 40 ft seas over a tiny area and 38 ft seas over a broader area at 58S 174.5W aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (5/3) a somewhat consolidated fetch of 45-50 kt southwest winds are to be tracking northeast with seas 44 ft over a small area aimed northeast at 53.5S 165W. In the evening fetch is to fade from 45 kts in pockets with seas 39 ft at 49S 152W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (5/4) south fetch is to be at 45 kts aimed north with seas 37 ft at 51.5S 142W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to be in the far Southeast Pacific with 45 kts south winds over a small area and 37 ft seas at 51.5S 128W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (5/5) 40 kt south fetch is to be on the eastern edge of the Southern CA swell window with 35 ft seas at 54S 121.5W aimed northeast. By evening this system is to be gone. Something to monitor.
Central South Pacific Gale
A gale started developing southeast of New Zealand Thurs PM (4/18) with 30-35 kt southwest winds building and lifting northeast with seas building to 24 ft at 61S 170W. On Fri AM (4/19) fetch was lifting hard northeast with a broader fetch of 35 kt southwest winds and seas 24 ft at 55N 158W aimed northeast. 35 kt southwest fetch continued in the evening with 23 ft seas at 52S 149W aimed northeast. So far no real swell was being produced that could survive the journey to the North Pacific.
But on Sat AM (4/20) winds were 30-35 kts over a broad area with seas 26 ft over a tiny area at 53S 149W aimed east-northeast. In the evening 40 kt mostly westerly fetch was tracking east with seas 27 ft at 54.5S 156W aimed east-northeast. On Sun AM (4/21) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts over a moderate sized area aimed east with 27 ft seas at 51S 152W aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch and seas faded.
But on Sun PM (4/21) ar new fetch of 40 kt southwest winds were building southeast of New Zealand with seas building from 25 ft at 56S 168W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (4/22) 40 kt west winds were lifting northeast with seas building to 30 ft at 52S 149W aimed east-northeast. The gale was tracking fast east to southeast with winds 45 kts aimed east with seas 28 ft over a tiny area falling southeast at 54S 131W. The gale to continue falling southeast from there and no longer of any interest. Something to monitor. But to manage expectations, minimal swell is likely to radiate northeast mainly for California.
Southern CA: Swell solid on Tues (4/30) to 2.5 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell holding on Wed (5/1) at 2.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0-4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (5/2) from 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction 200 degrees
North CA: Swell solid on Tues (4/30) to 1.9 ft @ 16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell holding on Wed (5/1) at 1.8 ft @ 16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft with sets to 3.5 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (5/2) from 2.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction 198 degrees
Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed in the Southeast Pacific on Sat PM (4/27) with 45 kt south winds and seas 29 ft at 51.5S 133.5W aimed north. Fetch faded Sun AM (4/28) from 35 kts tracking north with seas fading from 28 ft at 48S 130W aimed north. In the evening the gale continued tracking north but weak. On Mon AM (4/29) the gale redeveloped with 40 kt south winds and seas building to 28 ft over a tiny area at 37S 126W aimed north. Fetch held stationary in the evening with seas 30 ft over a tiny area aimed north at 37S 126W. Fetch faded from there. Small but decent swell to arrive in CA given this storms relative close/north position.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (5/5) building to 2.3 ft @ 17 secs later(4.0 ft). Swell solid on Mon (5/6) building to 3.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell holding on Tues (5/7) at 3.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees
North CA: expect swell arrival on Sun (5/5) building to 2.0 ft @ 18 secs late (3.5 ft). Swell solid on Mon (5/6) building to 3.0 ft @ 16 secs later (4.8 ft). Swell holding on Tues (5/7) 3.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
Beyond 72 hours another broad but gale is to develop under New Zealand on Sat AM (5/4) with 50+ kt west winds and seas 32 ft at 60S 164E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to fade from 40-45 kts aimed east with 34 ft seas at 63S 172E aimed east. On Sun AM (5/5) 35-40 kt southwest fetch is to be tracking east with seas 31 ft at 60S 180W aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest fetch to be fading in coverage at 35-40 kts with seas 35 ft at 58.5W 169W aimed east-northeast. The gale is to be fading Mon AM (5/6) with fetch dropping to 30 kts and seas fading from 31 ft at 55S 165W aimed northeast. This system is to dissipate from there.
Kelvin Wave #3 Holding Below EPac
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. As of January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then started building some late in Feb associated with another Kelvin Wave (#3).
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue , and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/29) 5 day average winds were from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific to the dateline, then continuing east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific turning neutral over the Central Pacific and then moderate east over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (4/30) moderate east anomalies were controlling the KWGA and the whole of the equatorial Pacific. But west anomalies were building in the far West Pacific. The forecast is for east anomalies easing east and almost out of the KWGA moving over the entirety of the equatorial Central and Eastern Pacific through the end of the model run on 5/7. West anomalies are to be building east from the far west KWGA filling 65% of the KWGA at the end of the model run. There is to continue to be a marked decrease in support for storm development into about 5/2, then storm production potential is to start building in the West Pacific.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (4/29) A moderate Inactive MJO pattern was over the KWGA. The statistic model indicates a moderate Inactive MJO signal is to be fading fast at day 5 of the model run then quickly disintegrating with the Active Phase building into the West Pacific at day 10 and filling the West Pacific at day 15. The dynamic model indicates almost the exact same thing but with the footprint of the Active Phase smaller than the statistic model. The 2 models are generally in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (4/30) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was moderate in the West Maritime Continent, and is forecast to push east into the West Pacific through day 15 at weak strength. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase moderate in strength and pushing east, while fading to weak or less status in the Western Pacific at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (4/30) This model depicts a solid Active Phase pushing into the West Pacific today tracking east into Central America on 5/22. A modest Inactive Phase is to develop in the West Pacific on 5/17 pushing east into Central America at the end of the model run on 6/6. A weak MJO signal is to build over the West Pacific at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/29) This model depicts a modest Inactive Phase fading in the core of the KWGA today with east anomalies in control. East anomalies and the Inactive Phase are to track east and out of the KWGA by 5/3 while moderate west anomalies start developing in the West KWGA pushing east. Stronger west anomalies associated with the Active Phase of the MJO are to build into the Central KWGA 5/6 tracking east and moving almost east of the KWGA at the end of the model run on 5/27. At that time weak east anomalies are to be developing in the far West KWGA. There is no active support for storm development for the next 5 days, but that to change once the Active Phase takes over and holding through 5/20.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/30) This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO fading in the KWGA today with modest east anomalies in control holding till 5/2. After that weak to modest west anomalies are to develop in the core of the KWGA as the Active Phase builds 5/3 through 5/25 with west anomalies holding if not building to moderate strength near 5/16. After that weak west anomalies are to hold even though a moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO is to set up 5/24-7/7. Another modest Active Phase is to develop 7/9 holding through the end of the model run on 7/28 with stronger west anomalies forecast. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines is fully in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California but not inland and forecast to hold steady position wise to the end of the model run on 7/25. The second contour line was to fade on 7/19. This model indicates that a tendency towards El Nino was previously in control during the Fall of 2018, but has been steadily fading since then and is to continue a slow decline for the foreseeable future, but not turning to La Nina. Basically we are moving to a ENSO neutral pattern bias slightly towards El Nino.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/30) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 29 deg temps reaching east to 170W but retracting some at the surface. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded west to 160W mid-Nov into late Feb. But it made a major push east starting 3/16 from 150W to 140W on 3/20, and to 130W on 4/10 and to 121W on 4/14, and 4/22 pushing into Ecuador, then back to 115W on 4/25 and holding today. It appears Kelvin Wave #3 was erupting in the East Pacific. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing into Ecuador 30 meters down. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs or greater from the surface to 150 meters down. Embedded in that flow is a pocket of warmer water centered in the East Pacific at 120W at +3 degs (Kelvin Wave #3) almost reaching Ecuador and west to 139W. This Kelvin Wave is the warmest of any Kelvin Wave so far since La Nina faded into early 2018 and is to adding warmth moving into 2019. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/23 indicates warm water from Kelvin Wave #3 was filling the equatorial Pacific from 155E eastward, weaker in the West Pacific at +2 degs and stronger over the East Pacific at +3 degs from 140W to Ecuador (attributable to a Westerly Wind Burst 12/30-1/16 and another 2/12-2/24). And there was a hint of more warm water dribbling from the Maritime Continent into the far West Pacific at 135E falling into the pre-existing warm pool near 160E. There is a river of very warm water traversing the width of the equatorial Pacific. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/23) Positive anomalies were gone from the interior Maritime Continent with weak negative anomalies there now. Positive anomalies were tracking east from 160E pushing over the dateline to a point east of the Galapagos (110W) but pretty unfocused at 0-5 cms above normal. And pockets of neutral heights were building on the equator at 160W and 100W indicating the density of the warm pool was fading.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (4/29) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate temps were modestly warm straddling 20 degrees north and south of the equator from just west of the Galapagos near 100W and continuing west to the dateline and stronger warming from the Galapagos to 100W right on the equator. These temps continue fading compared to days past mainly off and along the Central and South America Coast. Cool water previously along the coast of Peru And Ecuador was collapsing. There is some weak indication of a El Nino but nothing strong.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/29): A weak warming trend was over the equatorial Central Pacific with a pocket of stronger warming near the Galapagos. Weak cooling water as along the coast of Peru.
Hi-res Overview: (4/29) Warmer than normal water was from just off Peru up to Central America west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north and south of the equator continuing west of there to the dateline. It was holding compared to days past.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/30) Today's temps were steady at +0.129. Overall trend is falling in spurts for the last 3 months except for a recent uptick in mid-April.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/30) Today temps were steadily trickling down at +0.512 today. Temps have been generally steady the last 6 weeks.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (4/30) The model indicates temps were +0.90 degs through April forecast building to +1.35 degrees in early June then fading slowly to +1.30 degs on July 1, fading slightly through the Fall then holding at +1.05 degs in Sept and Oct then down to +0.80 in Dec 1 and steady into Jan. A weak El Nino like pattern is to hold if not build into July associated with the eruption of Kelvin Wave #3, then slowly fading through the Fall and Winter of 2019/20 with no more Kelvin Waves forecast. A multiyear warming event is in progress as suggested by this model.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.65 degs today, and are to hold in the +0.75 range into July, then holding at +0.75 through Nov 2019. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (4/30): The daily index was negative today at -1.66 and has been generally negative the previous 21 days, then positive for 7 days before that, and negative for 57 days before that (Feb 4-4/2 other than 3/23 & 3/24). The 30 day average was rising some at -2.43 suggesting a fading Active MJO. The 90 day average was rising some at -7.59, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (4/23) The index was neutral at -0.01 on 2/14 but has been rising ever since and pushed up to +0.99 on 3/3 (the highest its been in years), then fell some but started rising again and was up to +1.10 today. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (4/28):
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the
Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below
Powerline Productions New Movie Preimer - Next Level - Friday (11/9) at 7 PM. Details here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/NextLevel.html
- - -
Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By
popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes
GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand
column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table


Purpose: To provide a comprehensive assessment of the indoor environment of a representative dental office.
Methods: Health and comfort parameters, including carbon dioxide (CO2), respirable particulate matter (PM2.5), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), temperature, relative humidity, light and sound level, were measured at three sites over a 1-week period. Both real-time and integrated sampling methods were used, and clinic activities were recorded. Measurements were compared to guidelines and standards, and interactions between pollutant levels, emissions, and clinic activities were investigated using correlations, trend analyses, and a ventilation assessment.
Results: Comfort parameters were found to be within recommended values, with the exception of relative humidity, which was low but not unusual for the winter season investigated. Ventilation rates were within accepted guidelines. Integrated sampling showed that concentrations of VOCs were well below guidelines. However, PM2.5 levels exceeded ambient standards (by a factor of 2 to 6) throughout the building. Continuous trending allowed identification of peak levels, but correlations of clinic activities with measured concentrations were inconclusive. The results suggested that levels of air contaminants in dental clinics (with the exception of PM) are within guideline levels. With the recirculating ventilation systems found in most clinics and offices, particulate contaminants may rapidly disperse throughout a building. Improved capture, exhaust and filtration would decrease indoor PM concentrations. If contaminants are pathologic, the ramifications for practitioners may be considerable, and some specialists may be particularly at risk.


- Humidity: 61%
- Cloud Coverage:78%
- Wind: 11 mph
- UV Index: 3 Moderate
- Sunrise: 06:26:29 AM
- Sunset: 07:44:56 PM
Overcast. High 54F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph.
Mainly cloudy. Low 39F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.
Mainly cloudy. High 57F. Winds light and variable.
Find a local business
Success! An email has been sent to with a link to confirm list signup.
Error! There was an error processing your request.
Get the latest local and national news.


San Francisco Weather
Current Watches and Warnings
Dense Fog Advisory
Statement as of 9:01 AM CDT on September 21, 2014
Expires 11:15 AM EDT on September 21, 2014
... Dense fog advisory will expire at 9 am CDT this morning...
The areas of fog... locally dense... will continue to diminish
through the mid-morning hours. Still... motorists should be alert
for rapidly changing visibilities and slow down accordingly.
Public Information Statement
Statement as of 3:14 AM CDT on September 21, 2014
... Public information statement...
... Rains bring improvement to drought conditions to the South Plains
and rolling plains...
Impressive Reservoir rises have been observed at Lake Alan Henry
over the past few days with an 8.3 ft rise over the past week as of
3am. This brings it to its highest level since early 2013 at 74
pct of conservation capacity. White River lake has also risen to
its highest levels since early 2013 at 6 pct full. This is an
increase of about 600 acre feet in the past week. Lake MacKenzie
saw little benefit with this event though it is running about 850
acre feet of water more than a year ago.
The double mtn Fork of the Brazos had a second brief excursion
above action stage on Saturday and has fallen rapidly since 7pm
The highest 5 day totals in our area from the West Texas mesonet as
of 3 am are noted...
Of note... Fluvanna and Gail just to our south received 9.77" and
While these mesonet totals are impressive for this part of the
country they do not reflect the area of highest precipitation in our
County Warning Area which appear to have fallen between Brownfield
and Lamesa. Dual-pol radar estimates that nearly 9.5" has fallen
since mid day on the 19th of September just east of the community of
Union in Terry County. Another broad area of 4 to 6 inches fell
between New Home and Brownfield during this same timeframe.
It is important that while some parts of the area saw a lot of
rain... the hydrologic effects of the drought since 2010 continue to
be with US though there is little doubt that these rains have helped
the short to medium term situation across the southern part of our
Graphs of river and Reservoir data are available are
http://water.Weather.Gov/ahps2/index.Php?Wfo=lub all lower case.
Additional rainfall is expected through Monday with the highest
concentrations across our southwestern counties although
thunderstorm activity is also expected along a cold front across the
northeast. Thereafter... scattered thunderstorms are expected through
much of the work week.
- Arizona - Record Report
- Arkansas - Flood Warning
- California - Flash Flood Warning , Flash Flood Watch , Record Report
- Colorado - Flash Flood Warning , Special Statement , Record Report , Public Information Statement
- Connecticut - Special Statement , Public Information Statement
- Florida - Flood Warning
- Hawaii - Record Report
- Idaho - Air Quality Alert
- Illinois - Flood Warning
- Indiana - Public Information Statement
- Kansas - Public Information Statement
- Nebraska - Public Information Statement
- Nevada - Areal Flood Advisory, Flash Flood Watch , Flash Flood Watch , Record Report
- New Jersey - Special Statement , Public Information Statement
- New Mexico - Flash Flood Warning , Areal Flood Advisory, Flash Flood Watch , Areal Flood Advisory , Flash Flood Watch , Public Information Statement
- New York - Special Statement , Public Information Statement
- North Carolina - Flood Advisory , Beach Hazard Statement
- Ohio - Coastal Hazard Statement
- Oregon - Record Report
- Pennsylvania - Coastal Hazard Statement
- Texas - Flash Flood Warning , Flood Warning , Flash Flood Warning , Areal Flood Advisory , Flash Flood Watch , Areal Flood Advisory, Flash Flood Watch , Areal Flood Watch , Dense Fog Advisory , Hydrologic Statement , Public Information Statement
- Utah - Special Statement , Public Information Statement
- Virginia - Beach Hazard Statement
- Washington - Record Report
- Wisconsin - Public Information Statement
- Wyoming - Public Information Statement


12 pedestrians struck on dark, rainy roads this morning
Police warning drivers to slow down as heavy rains impair visibility
As many as 12 pedestrians were hit by vehicles on Toronto streets this morning as heavy rain and dark skies combined to create a tricky morning commute.
- LIVE BLOG | Rain makes for tricky morning commute
- Toronto braces for heavy rain as fall storm rolls in
Police say many of the pedestrian strikes were minor in nature, ranging from bumps and bruises up to broken bones. Police are asking drivers and pedestrians to take extra care on the roads today.
"The weather is not what's causing the collision, it's the driver's negligence, and unfortunately in some cases the pedestrian's errors," said Const. Clint Stibbe of Toronto Police Traffic Services.
Police say on average they see about six pedestrians hit in a 24-hour period in Toronto.
"We never take a driving course after the one we get our license from, we never go back and try and become better drivers," said Stibbe.
"Unfortunately we develop some really bad habits."
Pedestrian collisions were reported at the following 11 locations, all before 10:30 a.m.:
- Burnhamthorpe Road at Renforth Drive.
- Finch Avenue East and McCowan Road.
- Vaughan Road and Oakwood Avenue.
- Martingrove and Dixon Roads.
- Church and Shuter Streets.
- Kipling and Evans Avenues.
- Steeles and Birchmount Avenues.
- Martingrove Road and Enterprise Avenue.
- Finch Avenue and Tapscott Road.
- Dufferin Avenue and Wilson Road.
- Kipling Avenue and Rathburn Road.
The above total includes only reports from Toronto. Police in Peel and York region each reported two pedestrians struck this morning.
Rain and wind warnings and flood watches have been issued as the remnants of Hurricane Patricia move across southern Ontario today, making for a messy morning commute.
Forecasters predicted a "large shield of rain" in advance of the system they said would push into southwestern Ontario overnight and move into the Niagara and Toronto regions this morning.
Rainfall amounts of 45 to 55 millimetres are expected, with winds gusting up to 70 kilometres an hour, with the storm hitting harder closer to Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
We have had numerous pedestrians stuck this am. PLS SLOW DOWN - rain & dark = reduced visibility ^pa—@TPSOperations
In town: our 8th pedestrian struck at Martin Grove and Dixon Rd. Police and EMS on the way. @metromorning—@CBCTrafficTO


High temperatures predicted for this weekend could make breathing more difficult for people with respiratory issues, officials with the Bay Area Air Quality Management District said Friday.
Studies show that very high temperatures can make it harder to breathe for people with conditions such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and heart problems, especially children and the elderly.
Officials have not issued a "Spare the Air" alert for poor air quality, but those with known respiratory conditions should try to stay in cooler locations, drink plenty of water, avoid strenuous exercise during the hottest parts of the day and keep inhalers and medications handy at all times.
Residents who wish to be notified when a Spare the Air alert is in effect can sign up at www.sparetheair.org or call (800) HELP-AIR. Residents can also download a Spare the Air app or connect with Spare the Air on Facebook and Twitter.


Although Hurricane Harvey’s course has ended, friends and family in the southern regions of America are still in danger of Hurricane Irma.
Hurricane Harvey dropped 40 to 52 inches of rainfall in the southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana areas, according to the Weather Channel.
Although this hurricane happened much farther south than Fort Collins, some Colorado State University students were personally affected.
“My aunt and uncle are now without a home or cars, and they’ve lost most of their personal belongings,” said Taylor Robertson, a junior studying biology at CSU. “It’s been kind of hard, and it’s saddening that I can’t get there to help.”
According to Jason Gerlich, a junior studying watershed science, Texas has shown the world how people can set aside their differences in order to help those in need though the event has been catastrophic.
“I think that there is no better representation of the spirit of our country than Texas,” said Gerlich, a native of Houston. “No matter how much people may be different or divided, anybody who could help did so.”
Gerlich feels that his home state represents the spirit of America.
“Texans and Americans showed up in force to help,” Gerlich said. “I think Texas showed the country two things: what 50 inches of water will do to a city, and that we are not as divided as people like to believe.”
Although Hurricane Harvey has passed, Hurricane Irma is making its way through Caribbean Islands and Florida. According to CNN, Hurricane Irma has caused fatalities, left islands in ruins and is expected to be a category 4 hurricane by the time it reaches the United States.
Florida Gov. Rick Scott stated that he had never seen anything like Hurricane Irma, and encouraged people to evacuate the state once given the news, according to The Washington Post.
“This is a deadly storm and our state has never seen anything like it,” Scott said at a news conference in Sarasota, according to The Washington Post.
The hurricane is now expected to hit the west coast of Florida, targeting the area along Tampa and Fort Myers, according to CNN.
According to Philip Klotzbach, a research scientist for CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science, hurricanes originate as thunderstorm complexes in the mountains of Ethiopia. Some of these complexes travel across the ocean and intensify into hurricanes. Even though most of these complexes end up dying off if the conditions are right, natural phenomenons like Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma still occur.
According to Klotzbach, in order for one of these thunderstorm complexes to become a hurricane, three conditions must exist: warm ocean water, weak vertical wind shear or a small difference in the direction of wind in the upper and lower atmosphere, and moisture in the air.
“These three ingredients aren’t always present,” Klotzbach said. “But, for Hurricane Irma, they’re all there. (Irma) is one of the most intense storms we’ve ever seen in the Atlantic of all time.”
According to Klotzbach, the force hurricanes produce poses a great danger to humans.
“Hurricanes are so powerful, it makes humans seem puny,” Klotzbach said. “It’s a monster entity. The amount of energy and mass it processes is mind boggling. It’s not something humans can match.”
Collegian reporter Julia Trowbridge can be reached at email@example.com or on twitter @chapin_jules.


This year, meteorologists said, the winds were stronger than usual and lasted longer than usual. Up and down the state, they pushed over trees, which fell onto power lines, which sent up explosions of sparks, which ignited brush and more trees. The winds sent embers shooting like flaming arrows along the landscape. Borne on a wildly flowing, invisible river of wind, the embers touched down, torching homes and cars, sometimes even creating their own weather systems.
Source: latimes.com – Los Angeles Times


Posted: Jun 10, 2012 8:00 AM
TUCSON - Winds and heat stick around to wrap up the weekend.
The seventh triple digit day in a row is on the way for Sunday, according to Meteorologist John Patrick. If the forecast high of 101 is hit today in Tucson it would be for the 18th time already this year. Winds will jump up to 10-20mph in afternoon with areas of Cochise and Santa Cruz counties seeing up to 30mph wind gusts.
Winds will come down and temperatures will hover right around 100 for the start of the work week. As high pressure builds into the region daytime highs will gradually rise to near 105 by Wednesday. The next seven days will be dominated by clear skies and above average temperatures.
Click here to submit a news tip to us!
Become a Facebook Fan!
Help those in need this holiday season
Win! Win! Win!
Wise Local Marketing!
Get news, weather and more on your smartphone and tablet!
Get texts for news, traffic, deals and more!
Sign up on KVOA.com for newsletters, exclusive deals, and more!
What's happening on News 4 @ 4
Stories and videos with Kristi's Kids
Check out the latest events FC Tucson has scheduled.
Let us help grow your business
Digital Channel 4.2
What's on KVOA and when!
Contact info for our department heads
KVOA's on air personalities!
Work at News 4 Tucson
Complete feeds of all KVOA.com stories
FCC Public File of Records, Reports, and More


New York gets put under flood warning: "Please stay home"
New York, New York - An unpredictable rainstorm in New York City on Sunday put the Bronx, Brooklyn, Queens, and the east side of Manhattan under a flood warning and pushed Governor Kathy Hochul to urge New Yorkers to stay off roads.
"Please heed this warning – it's just for a short time," Hochul said at an afternoon news conference in Midtown Manhattan. "Please stay home. Stay off the roads until this has passed."
Rain totals in southern New York could approach records, the governor said.
The flood warning, issued by the National Weather Service, also covered Nassau and Westchester Counties and swaths of southwestern Connecticut, including Stamford and Norwalk.
More than 5 million people live in the area put under the warning, the National Weather Service said.
A tornado watch was also in place on parts of New England, including suburban Boston. Winds of 40 per hour were gusting through eastern Long Island, according to the National Weather Service.
More than 360 flights were canceled or delayed at Kennedy Airport, and more than 240 were canceled or delayed at LaGuardia Airport, according to a flight tracking company.
New York gets pounded with more historic rainfall
"It seems that Mother Nature is not quite done with us yet," Hochul said Sunday, a week after historic rainfall drenched the Hudson Valley, killing one person.
The latest rainstorm was pummeling areas of southern New York. Suffolk County on Long Island recorded an intense 5 inches of rain in about two hours, the governor said.
As the system blew through the state, about 23,000 customers lost power, mostly north of the city, according to Hochul's office. By Sunday afternoon, some 9,300 families lacked power, Hochul said.
New York City's emergency services were girding for flash flooding. The city said it was deploying drones to notify people of flood threats in low-lying areas of southeast Queens.
"Do not drive or walk where water covers the roadway," said an alert from the city's emergency notification system. "Move to higher ground, or, if in a basement, move to a higher floor."
Around 1:00 PM, Brooklyn's Park Slope had been doused by 2 inches of rain, Central Park and LaGuardia Airport had logged at least 1 inch each and the Fordham Section of the Bronx had seen about 1 inch.
More than 5.9 inches had fallen on Bay Shore on Long Island, and more than 4 inches had hit Danbury, Connecticut, the service reported.
Torrential rains tormented eastern Pennsylvania on Saturday and Sunday. In Upper Makefield, PA, about 25 miles northeast of Philadelphia, at least four people died in flash floods, the township's police department said Sunday.
Authorities there were searching for a missing 9-month-old boy, his 2-year-old sister, and an adult woman, the Upper Makefield Township Police Department said Sunday afternoon.
In New York, Hochul said more rain was on the way, threatening road conditions. The governor suggested climate change might be to blame for the challenging conditions.
"This is possibly our new normal," said Hochul. "What should normally be a beautiful, beachgoing Sunday in July can turn into a devastating catastrophe because of Mother Nature."
Cover photo: Collage: IMAGO / USA TODAY & Network Pacific Press Agency


WASHINGTON D.C.— The House of Representatives voted to impeach President Donald J. Trump in Wednesday's session. Ten Republicans joined the De…
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT... * WHAT...Southwest winds becoming west to northwest at 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. * WHERE...Nearshore Waters from Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor IL. * WHEN...From noon today to midnight CST tonight. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. &&
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Dense fog with visibilities of 1/4 mile or less. Possible slick roads due to the dense fog. * WHERE...Ozaukee, Sheboygan and Washington Counties. * WHEN...Until 10 AM CST this morning. * IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility. Also, the fog may cause slick roads due to near freezing temperatures. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you. &&
Currently in Sheboygan
Success! An email has been sent to with a link to confirm list signup.
Error! There was an error processing your request.
Most Popular Stories
Now that the app is live, let us know if you downloaded it or not. If you're just now hearing about it, will you install it?


"I was born and raised here and been through every storm the last 30 years, but this one seems to be doing more damage than we expected".
Keith Beavers, a farmer in Duplin County, North Carolina, was rushing on Thursday to harvest as much corn as he could, ahead of the storm.
Forecasters warned that drenching rains of 1 to 3 1/2 feet (30 centimetres to 1 metre) as the storm crawls westward across North and SC could trigger epic flooding well inland over the next few days.
At least 150 people are still waiting to be rescued from the attics and rooftops of their homes as of 1 p.m. Friday, said New Bern Mayor Dana Outlaw, whose adult daughter had 1 foot of water in her own home, he said.
Gov. Henry McMaster has ordered the evacuation of most of the state's coastline as the storm approaches.
Storm surges were forecast to approach eleven feet in some areas along the North Carolina coast. A mother and infant were killed when a tree fell on their house, WECT reported.
'We are trying to provide transportation where they do not have transportation, ' said Carnie Hedgepeth, the county's emergency services director.
SCV/Christopher Collura via ABC News/Twitter; Chip Somodevilla/GettyA composite image shows a gas station canopy being dismantled by high winds in Topsail Beach, North Carolina, and residents wading through flooded streets in New Bern, North Carolina.
"I honestly cried", Kittrell said. The Category 1 hurricane's eyewall was beginning to reach the Carolina coast and the storm was moving with maximum sustained winds of 90 miles (150 kilometers) an hour. It came ashore along a mostly boarded-up, emptied-out stretch of coastline.
North Carolina is the largest tobacco grower and ranks second among USA states in hog inventory and producing broiler chickens. But it was clear that this was really about the water, not the wind.
"There is going to be a lot of rain". By midnight, his rain gauge showed that he'd gotten 9 inches (23 centimeters) of rain since midafternoon. Other communities got well over a foot (30 centimetres). It is expected to move across parts of southeastern North Carolina and eastern SC on Friday and Saturday, then head north over the western Carolinas and central Appalachian Mountains early next week, the NHC said. Forecasters said the torrents could continue for days, touching off disastrous flooding.
Preparing for the worst, about 9,700 National Guard troops and civilians were deployed with high-water vehicles, helicopters and boats.
Having slowed to a crawl, a weakened but still powerful Hurricane Florence finally made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina on Friday morning.
"On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move further inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina (Friday) and Saturday", forecasters added.
The National Weather Service office in Newport, North Carolina, in a tweet called the storm surge "catastrophic". That's enough to fill the Chesapeake Bay or cover the entire state of Texas with almost 4 inches (10 centimetres) of water, he calculated.
The weather service later measured a storm surge 10 feet deep in the city.
On Friday, coastal streets in the Carolinas flowed with frothy ocean water, and pieces of torn-apart buildings flew through the air. Gusts at the Wilmington International Airport this morning have been measured as high as 105 miles per hour.
"WE ARE COMING TO GET YOU", the tweet said.
Boat teams including volunteers rescued some 360 residents, including Sadie Marie Holt, 67, who first tried to row out of her neighbourhood during Florence's assault.
"We're working as hard as we can", Hodges says. "We got thrown into mailboxes, houses, trees", said Holt, who had stayed at home because of a doctor's appointment that was later cancelled.
Florence also blew down trees, including one that went through the roof of Kevin DiLoreto's home in Wilmington.
"Honestly, I grew up in Wilmington".
Subtropical Storm Joyce forms in north Atlantic
It's not clear if the storm is expected to strengthen back into a hurricane after it hits the eastern Caribbean. Severe gales are expected in the United Kingdom , moving from the south west to the north west.


A line of severe storms blasted through central and northern Illinois Friday, resulting in funnel clouds in Sherman to the south and Geneseo to the west, but La Salle, Bureau and Putnam counties have been spared from the worst of it.
A tornado warning was issued in western Bureau County, but there were no immediate reports of injury. Ameren reported scattered outages across Bureau and Putnam counties.
Several thousand electrical customers were left without power in Peru about 7:30 p.m. Peru Mayor Ken Kolowski said at least 10 utility poles from the Armory to LKCS were toppled, one was split in half, and four trucks were dispatched as of 8:05 p.m.
“It’s ironic because we just, at the least City Council meeting, ordered new poles,” Kolowski said.
Spring Valley Police Chief Adam Curran said the tornado siren was activated to alert of dangerous winds, but no funnel cloud was spotted.
Heavy but short-lived downpours were reported in La Salle-Peru, which was drenched by a pair of 10-minute storms around 4 p.m. and again around 7 p.m., and Streator was thoroughly soaked late afternoon.
La Salle County Sheriff Adam Diss reported at 7:50 p.m. there were downed power lines in the northwest corner of La Salle County, extending into Mendota, where three deputies were on scene.
“We don’t have any injury reports at this time,” Diss said.
The threat of severe weather led numerous schools across the Illinois Valley to either cancel sporting events and/or announce early dismissals, mostly before 2:30 p.m.
Hall High School postponed Friday’s performance of “You’re a Good Man Charlie Brown,” while Illinois Valley Community College announced “An Evening With Gene Weygandt” at the IVCC Theatre has been postponed until Friday, April 7 at 7:30 p.m. A few Friday Lenten observances either were scratched or drew limited worshippers


Formed : September Highest winds : 1-minute sustained : 1mph. One of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes in recent years is expected to cause flooding and landslides as it is approaching Haiti. Hurricane Matthew update: The latest storm tracking shows the.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew. Storm Maps: WunderPhotos (47). Click the map to change the zoom level. All signs are pointing toward deadly hurricane Matthew slamming.
Experimental Arrival Time of Winds, Image not ready. Wind History, Image not ready. It has also become the longest-lasting . The storm ravaged much of the southwestern peninsula with winds of over 145 . Matthew could be the most powerful storm to cross the island since records began, meteorologist . Utility companies in Florida said the storm named Matthew had. Tropical weather and Atlantic hurricane information, analysis, and forecasts by Levi Cowan. Figure 1: Insured Property Loss Estimates for Hurricanes Matthew , Sandy.
Disaster Response, Virginia Annual Conference, flooding.
Republicans won control of the House of Representatives. Thank you for your interest in, and thoughts and prayers for, . Aftermath of hurricane Matthew in Baracoa as captured by Mike Theiss, photographer of National Geographic. Find out which charities are responding.
Some of us will die – USA TODAY. Credit Union wishes to advise its staff, members and customers that all its locations will be closed on Monday October. Haitians were living in poverty and .


The largest sunspot to appear on Earth's nearest star in more than two decades is once again pointed at the planet, and it will likely kick-start solar storms, NASA scientists say.
The massive sunspot, previously known as Active Region 12192, was turned toward Earth in October and early November, but rotated out of view. While it was on the Earth-facing side of the sun, the sunspot did not produce any coronal mass ejections — hot bursts of material ejected into space at 4 million mph (6.4 million km/h) — which have the potential to damage satellites and power grids. Now the active region has rotated back around to face Earth again, and although the sunspot has shrunk in size, it will likely be disruptive, NASA scientist Holly Gilbert told Space.com during a video interview about the massive sunspot.
"This time around, it's more likely to have some coronal mass ejections associated with it, even though the solar flares might be smaller," said Gilbert, chief of the Solar Physics Laboratory at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland. "We have a good idea, based on the structure of that magnetic field and the sunspot, that it's very possible that it will create some midlevel flares." [The Biggest Solar Flares of 2014]
Sunspots are blemishlike regions on the sun where magnetic fields become very tightly bundled. The magnetic fields block light and heat from passing through the sunspot region, causing them to appear dark compared to the surrounding area.
AR 12192 has been renamed AR 12209 now that it is once again on the Earth-facing side of the sun. The sunspot was out of view of the Earth for about two weeks before reappearing. It is still large enough for 10 Earths to fit inside it, Gilbert said. In terms of size, it ranks 33rd largest of 32,908 active regions recorded since 1874, and it's the largest sunspot recorded since 1990.
The huge spot released six major solar flares in Earth's direction in October and early November, plus a series of smaller flares, before moving to the side of the sun facing away from Earth. Solar flares can lead to the production of coronal mass ejections, also called CMEs, and Gilbert said it was "a little strange" that the major solar flares produced by AR 12192 did not result in any CMEs.
"[CMEs] can affect our satellites, our technology; it can cause power grid outage," Gilbert said. "So it's very important for us to understand when they're going to happen and how they're going to impact us here on Earth."
Scientists cannot yet predict when a sunspot will produce flares or if those flares will kick up coronal mass ejections. But NASA knows when these flares and CMEs occur, thanks to a fleet of satellite missions that are studying the sun and its effect on the Earth. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory, which was designed to study the causes of space weather and how it affects Earth, monitors the sun around the clock.
AR 12209 will continue to shrink and will eventually disappear, but it could make another trip around the sun before it goes away completely. The sun is currently headed into a phase of minimal solar activity, during which scientists expect fewer active regions to appear.
Follow Calla Cofield @callacofield. Follow us @Spacedotcom, Facebook and Google+. Original article on Space.com.


Tuesday, 18 June, 2013
Exploration of the Earth's Magnetosphere (Popularity: )
an overview of space research on the Earth's environment in space: the polar aurora, the radiation belts, the solar wind, magnetic storms, and more.
Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration (Popularity: )
studying the response of Earth's magnetosphere to changes in the solar wind, producing images of the magnetosphere from neutral atom and radio observations.
Magnetosphere Ionosphere and Solar-Terrestrial (MIST) (Popularity: )
informal community of UK-based scientists who study the ionosphere and magnetosphere and the ionised space in the vicinity of Earth, and solar-terrestrial relations.
The Magnetosphere (Popularity: )
describes the region just above the ionosphere.
© 2005-2010 Science Central. All Rights Reserved


Don’t need too much weather info, but want to know today and next-4-day’s weather conditions? Take a look at Weather Plus, maybe the weather app can meet your requirements.
Weather Plus is practical, lightweight weather app developed by tapisfun, and designed for iPhone and iPod touch. The iPhone app features minimalistic user interface and nice weather animation. When you use the weather app at first time, it will automatically locate your position, and showing you current weather info including current temperature, high & low temperatures, of course, you can also freely add your favorite cities for more weather info. Apart from that, just taping the icon in the lower left corner, you can check next-4-day weather conditions.
Weather Plus with a size of 12.4 MB is compatible with iPhone, iPod touch and iPad running iOS 4.3 or later. The iPhone app is free for a limited time at present. If you’re interested, jump to App Store for more details.


Issued Zones: Eastern Southern California Deserts, The Colorado River Valley …
Site: Southern California Weather Force has issued a Special Weather Statement effective now through Tuesday …
Date: 9/22/19 at 4:00pm PT
Forecast: A potent storm system will drop out of due north along the Colorado River Valley, with most of the activity happening in the Special Weather Statement zones on Monday into early Tuesday. Tonight however, overnight into early Monday morning, a gulf surge from the Gulf of California will bring moisture northward along the Colorado River Valley and bring the chance of pop-up shower/thunderstorm activity then.
Over the day on Monday, especially later, lasting into the night … Expecting the upper divergence (lift) zone of the storm system to maximize and pop thunderstorms off int he statement areas. Activity can make it as far as the Salton Sea, Eastern Morongo Basin, and Desert Center.
I’ve outlined the Imperial Valley Metro areas just in-case, however you are on the outskirts of this system so it is a toss-up for you.
Activity will surge westward and cause a severe thunderstorm event for Phoenix Arizona overnight on Monday where the page Arizona Weather Force will cover.
EMAIL ALERTS FOR THESE PRODUCTS!: Click this link to find out how you can be a full member and get these and NOT wait for Facebook posts! –
Join A Micro-Climate Group On Facebook For These Alerts – Click Here To Find Your Location Served By SCWF Today!
10 mile rule: These alerts issued on this site means that within your zone and 10 miles from you will see the event forecast for. You may or may not see the event but it means you are in the zone or 10 miles from where someone will.


Greece is bracing for more intense heat this weekend, with meteorologists warning that temperatures could climb as high as 45C (113F).
People have been advised to stay home, and tourist sites – including Athens’ ancient Acropolis – will be shut during the hottest parts of the next two days.
It could turn into Greece’s hottest July weekend in 50 years, one of the country’s top meteorologists says.
Meanwhile, firefighters are continuing to battle dozens of wildfires.
Emergencies and civil protection officials are warning of a very high risk of new blazes across the country.
Western Attica – just west of Athens – is among the worst-hit areas, along with Laconia in the southern Peloponnese and the island of Rhodes.
Greece’s EU partners have provided help, including Canadair planes from France and Italy and more than 200 firefighters from Poland, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria. Neighbouring Turkey is also sending some aircraft to help.
Greece – like a number of other European countries – saw a prolonged spell of extreme heat earlier this month.
In its latest bulletin, the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) warns that central and eastern regions of Greece are likely to see temperatures reaching 44C on Saturday.
And it forecasts an even hotter Sunday, with the Central Greece region experiencing a sizzling 45C.
“This weekend risks being the hottest registered in July in the past 50 years,” said Panagiotis Giannopoulos, a meteorologist with state broadcaster ERT, quoted by AFP news agency.
“Athens is going to have temperatures above 40C for six to seven days, through to the end of July,” he added.
After a slight drop on Monday a new heat surge is expected on Tuesday.
Officials fear this could be the worst heatwave since the summer of 1987, when hundreds of deaths were linked to the extreme weather.
Climate change increases the risk of the hot, dry weather that is likely to fuel wildfires. The world has already warmed by about 1.1C since the industrial era began and temperatures will keep rising unless governments around the world make steep cuts to emissions.
Spain and Italy are among the Mediterranean countries also enduring an intense heatwave now, while parts of the US are also seeing heat records broken.
Hellenic Red Cross officials in Athens have been distributing lots of water bottles to try and keep people safe and hydrated.
Tourism remains a big part of Greece’s economy and people are still flocking to the country.
Across Greece, a number of people have already lost their homes to wildfires. In one region, several villages have been consumed by the blazes.
One man told the BBC he did not even have a bed to sleep on anymore, and was now living in a hotel, our correspondent adds.
#Temperatures #soar #Greece #fires #burn


A cruise to see the Northern Lights in Norway is one of the best trips in the world
Those who can’t join the 12-day Astronomy Voyage can still enjoy his insights thanks to the Q&A session below.
Currently a Principal Lecturer at the South Downs Planetarium in Chichester, he has been a Fellow of the Royal Astronomical Society since 1976.
He is also a frequent radio and television broadcaster and appeared many times with the late Sir Patrick Moore on BBC TV’s The Sky At Night.
So here’s what he has to say about the aurora borealis and the best place and time to see the Northern Lights.
What are the Northern Lights?
The aurora borealis, or Northern Lights, are caused when electrically-charged particles – originating from the Sun’s outer atmosphere – are funnelled down into Earth’s atmosphere in a region around the north magnetic pole, known as the auroral oval.
As these particles collide with atoms and molecules of oxygen and nitrogen high in the atmosphere they excite them to produce the light that we see as the aurora.
In the southern hemisphere the phenomenon is known as the aurora australis or Southern Lights. The words aurora borealis literally mean “dawn of the North”.
When is the best time to see the Northern Lights?
In the Arctic, the Northern Lights season runs from the last week in September to the first week in April.
During the late spring and summer months there is continuous daylight, which is why they are not visible.
During the autumn and winter, you are very likely to see the Northern Lights whenever the sky is clear and dark, and they may often be glimpsed through thin or broken cloud.
The Northern Lights season runs from the last week in September to the first week in April
Where is the best place to view the Northern Lights and why?
Although I do work for other tour companies escorting land-based aurora tours to various locations around the Arctic Circle, including most recently Alaska and Iceland, I always enjoy the cruises with Hurtigruten along the coast of Norway.
Quite apart from the chance of seeing the Northern Lights (to which I am now somewhat addicted), the coastal scenery is fabulous and ever-changing, the ships are very comfortable, the crews are incredibly professional, friendly and helpful – and the food is superb!
While it is true that the Norwegian coastal weather is unpredictable, it can change very quickly – on occasions in a matter of minutes – I have seen a fierce snowstorm up on deck give way to a beautifully clear, star-studded sky with Northern Lights visible, and all in the space of just 20 minutes!
Under normal conditions, the auroral oval lies to the north of Tromso, so the section of the voyage from Tromso to Kirkenes and back is generally the best location for seeing the Lights, but I have seen them as far south as Bergen and quite often once within the Arctic Circle.
How long do you recommend staying in the Arctic Circle in order to see the Northern Lights?
The longer, the better. Statistics collected in 2015 showed that if a guest stays just one night in the Arctic they have only a 14 per cent chance of seeing the Northern Lights, whereas if they stay for five nights their chances increase to about 90 per cent.
But you must be ready to get up whenever the sky is clear – even if that is at 3 o’clock in the morning! Patience and perseverance are vital.
What colours can you see in the Northern Lights?
The most common auroral colour is the pale green light produced by excited oxygen atoms between about 100 km and 150 km above the ground.
Above 150 km and below 400 km altitude, excited oxygen atoms give out a faint red, almost rose pink coloured light.
Sometimes in twilight conditions, a purplish colour may be seen extending up to altitudes approaching 1,000 km. This is due to excited atoms of nitrogen. Turquoise blue, violet, lilac and deep red auroral emissions may also be produced by atmospheric nitrogen.
Must there be a lot of spots on the Sun for the Northern Lights to be seen?
In the auroral zones, both North and South, there’s something there in terms of visible auroral activity most of the time. Another surprising fact is that sunspots – patches of magnetic intensity that can create solar flares – are not always necessary to produce the particles that cause the aurora.
Coronal holes – which are holes in the Sun’s outer atmosphere – may blow high-speed particle streams towards the Earth at any time, so you can see the aurora when there are few or no sunspots.
I have seen many really amazing displays of Northern Lights from within the Arctic Circle, even at times when the Sun has been virtually spotless for many days.
You have to be prepared at all times if you want to catch the Northern Lights - even at 3am
What is it with the Northern Lights that particularly fascinates people?
I think that it is the inherent unpredictability of the aurora that particularly fascinates people, together with the expectation that one might just be lucky enough to witness a truly spectacular display.
Often, as night falls and the sky is clear and dark, one’s first view of the aurora is nothing more than a faint arc of light, usually to the north, which appears greyish to the naked eye simply because our eyes are not good at seeing colour in low light levels.
As the aurora brightens the first hints of colour, usually pale green, may be discerned. Then, if the display becomes more active, bright spots may be seen moving along the arc and rays may be seen shooting upwards into the sky.
If the arc ripples and distorts, or if multiple arcs appear, the excitement mounts and there is the expectation of a fine show. The most active parts of an auroral display may last only a few minutes, so one must keep alert.
In the grandest outbursts, the aurora may become all-sky, a breath taking, rapidly moving kaleidoscope of colour, perhaps coming together in a magnificent corona almost overhead – the exhilarating climax of the display. No matter how wonderful an aurora one has seen, one always hopes for something better the next time!
What sort of equipment would you recommend?
Warm, comfortable clothing is absolutely essential for night-time viewing from the deck of the ship, including gloves, thick socks and a hat.
Other than that, a good pair of binoculars is the only piece of equipment that I would recommend (for both stargazing and daytime viewing), plus a digital camera with a sturdy tripod if one wants to try to get some pictures of the scenery and the Northern lights to take home and show family and friends.
It is always important to let your eyes become accustomed to the dark for 10-15 minutes when outside viewing at night. You cannot expect to see the Northern Lights well if you have just come out on deck from the brightly lit interior of the ship. One should always avoid using flash at night or shining bright lights when on deck.


Image: This image released by Alaska Volcano Observatory on Sunday July 13, 2008 shows the Okmok Caldera in Alaska as viewed from an Alaska Airlines jet in early June, 2007. The 3,500-foot Okmok Caldera, which consists of a 6-mile-wide circular crater about 1,600 feet deep, erupted with little warning Saturday morning July 12, 2008, just hours after seismologists at the Alaska Volcano Center began detecting a series of small tremors. (AP Photo/ Alaska Volcano Observatory)
Story: Volcano spewed huge ash plume for 3rd day - The Okmok Caldera on Umnak Island about 60 miles west of the fishing port of Dutch Harbor erupted Saturday and was still in a near state of continuous eruption on Monday. It's ash plume reached more than 6 1/2 miles high and was moving southeastward over the North Pacific. When the volcano last erupted in 1997, it remained active for eight months, producing a significant amount of lava and ash. This time, the volcano's seismic activity peaked a few hours after the initial explosion Saturday and has been slowly declining since.
Okmok Volcano RAMPED UP FROM NOTHING TO AN EXPLOSIVE ERUPTION IN RECORD TIME and it is still pulsing with activity. The explosive eruption Saturday and subsequent shock wave jostled the surrounding cloud-cover. Thermal infrared tracking over the first two days showed the ash plume moving southeast. But a wind shift Tuesday pushed the plume northeast, prompting an ash fall advisory for Cold Bay, which ended early Tuesday. The Volcano Observatory suspects more than one vent in the caldera is active. "There appears to be two vents in the caldera, one of which is producing a more steam-rich cloud. The other is more ash-rich. That activity is sort of pulsing, we have tens of minutes where activity is occurring." A code red warning is still in effect for Okmok Volcano.
Adapting to the damaging effects of climate change, plants are gradually moving to where temperatures are cooler, rainfall is greater, f...


Physical gas prices for Thursday delivery fell hard Wednesday as the impact of Tropical Storm Arthur reverberated through short-term weather forecasts. Eastern and Northeast points were the hardest hit, as the storm was expected to travel up the East Coast and cause rain and thunderstorms across major population centers.
Some eastern points were down close to $1.00, with selling widespread from New England into the Marcellus. The overall market decline was more than a dime and market points in the producing regions were down about a nickel.
Futures echoed the weakness in the cash market and took nearly a double-digit dump as traders anticipated another Thursday inventory report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) into triple digits and well ahead of historical norms.
At the close August had fallen 9.8 cents to $4.357 and September was down 8.8 cents to $4.348. August crude oil shed 86 cents to $104.48/bbl.
Weather forecasters cited the adverse impact Arthur was expected to have on Fourth of July festivities, but next-day temperatures dropped as much as 10 degrees at some points. “Tropical storm Arthur will travel up the East coast Thursday into Friday, inducing heavy rain and creating rough surf conditions,” said AccuWeather.com meteorologists. “However, the storm is forecast to move out in time for evening fireworks on the Fourth.
“If the tropical system takes a northeastward turn late in the week, as we suspect, rain and thunderstorms will begin to shift eastward and out to sea Friday afternoon and evening so that the weather improves for fireworks Friday night from Washington, DC, to Philadelphia and New York City,” said AccuWeather.com’s Paul Pastelok.
He said “cloudy skies and thunderstorms will hit the New York area late this week. Temperatures will stay consistent in the upper 80s before dropping to the upper 70s on Friday. Surf and tides will gradually ease over the weekend. At the same time, humidity levels will lower as Arthur races toward the Maritimes.”
Traders see Arthur’s primary impact, besides possible physical and life-threatening damages, as a loss of demand should the storm cause power outages and moderate temperatures at major population centers. At 2 p.m. EDT Wednesday the National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Arthur was 110 miles east northeast of Cape Canaveral, FL and was sporting 60 mph winds. It was moving to the north at 7 mph, but “a turn to the north-northeast is expected tonight followed by a turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed on Thursday. The center of Arthur is expected to pass east of northeastern Florida tonight and move parallel to the coasts of South and North Carolina during the next 24 to 36 hours.”
WeatherBELL Analytics’ Joe Bastardi said a modest shift in trajectory to the west could cause major disruptions during the holiday weekend.
“Like a snowball rolling down a hill, the ramp up may be even quicker than I have it once this gets farther north…There is room for a shift of 30-50 miles northwestward, which is a small error from 2-3 days out in skill score land. This outlines why this is a ‘nightmare’ scenario, …[and] this is not a minimal storm at its closest approach.
“A 100 mph storm moving from Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras on the biggest holiday of the summer season would be a major event, trapping people, knocking out power; the after effects will be a real problem. On our [projected] track, it’s a big pain, with hurricane gusts in that area, but the bigger resort areas to the north have less. Keep in mind, the main road on the Outer Banks floods very easily.”
Temperatures along the Eastern Seaboard were expected to plunge. AccuWeather.com predicted that Boston’s 94 high on Wednesday would drop to 84 Thursday and ease to 78 on Friday. The normal high in Boston in early July is 81. New York City forecast maximum highs on Wednesday of 91, dropping to 87 Thursday and falling to 79 on Friday. The seasonal high in New York City is 83. Baltimore’s 93 Wednesday high was expected to slide to 88 Thursday before dipping to 84 Friday; the normal high this time of year is 87.
Next-day deliveries to the Algonquin Citygates fell 63 cents to $4.01, and gas at Iroquois Waddington shed a dime to $4.53. On Tennessee Zone 6 200 L, Thursday parcels were seen at $4.01, down 55 cents.
Gas into the Mid-Atlantic fell harder and faster. Thursday parcels on Transco Zone 6 New York dropped 98 cents to $3.14, and deliveries to Tetco M-3 shed a stout 74 cents to $3.11.
Prices also weakened at Marcellus points. Deliveries to Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus came in 3 cents lower at $2.85 and gas on Transco Leidy was off 23 cents to $2.98.
Gas in the Midcontinent eased as well. At the NGPL Midcontinent Pool, Thursday gas was seen 2 cents lower at $4.23, and deliveries on ANR SW shed 5 cents to $4.22. On OGT Thursday parcels were seen at $4.11, down 5 cents, and gas on Panhandle Eastern was quoted 6 cents lower at $4.12.
Traders Thursday may have a double whammy of factors to deal with. Not only will the track of the storm and its potential effect on demand be on traders’ minds, but the inventory report is expected to surpass triple digits again. Last week a stout 110 Bcf was injected and for the week ended July 27, expectations are just a shade less.
Last year 76 Bcf was injected and the five-year average is for a 68 Bcf build. Analysts at United ICAP forecast an increase of 104 Bcf and at IAF Advisors in Houston estimated build is 102 Bcf. A Reuters poll of 21 traders and analysts revealed a sample average of 100 Bcf with a range of 91 Bcf to 106 Bcf.
Tim Evans of Citi Futures Perspective sees Arthur as having little impact. The storm is “unlikely to have much of an impact even on the demand side of the market,” he said Tuesday. He said “changes to the temperature outlook were mixed compared with Monday, with the week ending July 11 looking somewhat warmer and more supportive, but the week ending July 18 looking cooler than a day ago.”
Evans forecast a storage build of 106 Bcf in the EIA inventory report, with “estimates we’ve seen so far suggest expectations may be anchoring in the 98-100 Bcf zone. Net injections at that level would generate bearish comparisons with both the date-adjusted 75 Bcf build from a year ago and the 68 Bcf average. Our model generated a larger 106 Bcf refill, which we view as representing at least some risk of a bearish surprise.”
Evans said “the big picture has been stable, with the year-on-five-year average storage deficit declining as it has for the past ten weeks, confirming that the market is becoming better supplied on a seasonally adjusted basis. As the deficit declines, we see the upside potential for prices shrinking in tandem, and the downside risk expanding. We continue to see a chance that nearby futures could test the $4.00-4.25 range in the weeks ahead.”
© 2020 Natural Gas Intelligence. All rights reserved.
ISSN © 1532-1231 | ISSN © 2577-9877 |


Bhubaneswar: With a cold wave sweeping most parts of the region, schools in Odisha's forested Kandhamal district have been asked to hold day-classes.
The district headquarter town of Phulbani, about 200 km from state Capital Bhubaneswar, has been experiencing less than six degrees Celsius temperature since the past few days.
The minimum temperature was recorded at less than three degrees Celsius in some interior places of the district this week, informed district collector Rajesh Prabhakar.
"We have asked all the schools in the district to re-schedule their school hours," he said.
Patil said the school authorities have been asked to hold day-classes in place of morning classes from Wednesday.
The Bhubaneswar meteorological centre said the cold wave conditions would continue to prevail in the interior parts of the state during the next 48 hours


Spacecraft have flown passed, orbited, landed, and roved on Mars, but now is the time to surf Mars! No, there is no ocean on Mars, or even a drop of water to be found, so how is it possible that a spacecraft planning to be launched in a few months will hit the waves later next year and actually go surfing at the Red Planet?
MAVEN, the Mars Atmospheric and Volatile EvolutioN mission is a new class of orbiting spacecraft that will be capable of skimming or surfing the upper atmosphere of Mars safely without danger of accidentally entering too deeply and burning up. It will sample the upper reaches of the atmosphere to study how the atmosphere is being lost. This type of mission is called an aeronomy mission and has been the desire of scientists since the beginning of Mars exploration. It was never a priority mission because it lacks the public appeal of an orbiter, lander or rover with high-resolution cameras. Now that the exploration of Mars has evolved far enough along where we are "following the water" and trying to detect any evidence of life, past or present, sampling the upper atmosphere to see how it evolved and how it could affect life has become important.
On September 15, 2008, NASA selected MAVEN, which was part of the now-defunct Mars Scout Program, as the Mars Scout 2013 mission. The three-week long launch window opens on November 18, 2013 and MAVEN is expected to go into orbit around Mars on September 16, 2014. It will go into an elliptical orbit from 3870 miles to only 90 miles above Mars. The mission will cost $485 million, not as expensive as most planetary missions these days, but robust enough to return excellent science. It will focus on collecting data about the atmosphere which includes determining the loss of volatiles such as carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and water to space from the atmosphere through time; the state of the atmosphere and ionosphere and its interactions with the solar wind; the current escape rates of specific gases to space and the cause; and determining the ratio of stable isotopes in the Martian atmosphere.
Scientists will be able to use the data to extrapolate backwards in time to see how much atmosphere has been lost in the past hundred million years, and possibly as far back as one billion years. It will also be possible to determine which gases are escaping, how much, and how fast. This is especially important as methane has been discovered on Mars and can only originate from two sources, volcanoes or life. There may still be a few barely active volcanic vents on Mars so MAVEN's measurements will aid in determining the actual source of the methane.
MAVEN will be like a true surfer, feeling the atmospheric waves of Mars as it orbits as low as safely possible sensing density and air pressure as it conducts its samplings and experiments. A lot has been learned from Mars, but there is still much more. So it is time to catch a wave and surf Mars for more adventure and discovery!


These are the climate forecasts set by the Basic Meteorological Workplace for Saturday, December 31, 2022
– Brief-term rains in locations within the southern provinces.
– Within the Rif, the East, the Atlas and the southeast, the climate is sort of chilly with native frosts.
– Just a few vacuum cleaners within the inside of the southern provinces.
– Minimal temperatures round -04/04°C within the Atlas, 00/07°C within the Rif, northwest, east, phosphate plateaus and southeast, 12/17°C in Sousse and within the southern provinces and 06/12°C in the remainder of the Kingdom.
– Air temperature will drop a bit of throughout the day.
– Good seas within the Mediterranean, positive to barely uneven within the strait, uneven between Larache and Tan Tan and light-weight to uneven elsewhere.


Climate in Fountain Valley, California
Cost of Living,
Fountain Valley, CA, gets 13 inches of rain per year. The US average is 37. Snowfall is 0 inches. The average US city gets 25 inches of snow per year. The number of days with any measurable precipitation is 31.
On average, there are 276 sunny days per year in Fountain Valley, CA. The July high is around 83 degrees. The January low is 45. Our comfort index, which is based on humidity during the hot months, is a 54 out of 100, where higher is more comfortable. The US average on the comfort index is 44.
Fountain Valley Climate SperlingViews
Excellent Climate for gardening: We are just average home gardeners and having lived in Fountain Valley for over 40 years, my wife and I have found the climate excellent for growing nearly ever kind of... (read more)Wonderful weather in wonderful city: The weather is very moderate year-around. Warm summers, comfortable spring-time, cool... (read more)nice but expensive: fountain valley is nice but very expensive. Average home price will run you around $700,000.Beaches are close by. People are okay but no sense of community or sense of... (read more)Have an opinion about Fountain Valley? Leave a commentTo See All SperlingViews for Fountain Valley Click Here


Millions of Indians have fled their homes ahead of Cyclone Phailin, which is pounding the coast. The states of Orissa and Andrha Pradesh are bearning the brunt of the storm.
Indian authorities have prepared for the worst as a "very severe cyclone" threatened to bring life to a standstill in Orissa. At least two people have been killed as the powerful storm made landfall.
© 2018 Deutsche Welle |
Legal notice |
| Mobile version


June 13, 2018 08:14 PM
Early morning rain and storms will be possible Thursday, with another round later in the afternoon and evening. We will have a nice dry spell in between for you to enjoy Thursdays on First & 3rd.
Created: June 13, 2018 08:14 PM
Copyright 2018 - KAAL-TV, LLC A Hubbard Broadcasting Company


An expert has blasted the claim that the fireball seen over the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv last night was caused by a decommissioned NASA satellite falling back to Earth. Astronomer Dr Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusetts tweeted that the notion was “stupidly incorrect”. He added that the satellite’s orbit “did not pass over Ukraine at all.” Instead, he explained, the track of the satellite was predicted to fall across southern South America, northern Africa, central Asia and China.
Writing on the Telegram messaging service, Kyiv military administation head Serhiy Popko had noted that a “bright glow” was seen over the city at around 10pm local time (8pm BST).
Following the sightings of the flash, an air raid alert was sounded, but “air defense was not in operation”, Mr Popko said.
He added: “According to preliminary information, this phenomenon was the result of a NASA space satellite falling to Earth.”
Since then, however, the Ukrainian air force has suggested that the glow might have been caused by a meteor burning up in the atmosphere, having ruled out the possibility that it was caused by a Russian air attack.
This explanation is supported by the State Space Agency of Ukraine, who said: “The flash was most likely caused by a meteorite falling from the Lyrid Stream.”
Earlier this week, NASA announced that their Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) spacecraft, which was decommissioned back in 2018, would plunge into the Earth’s atmosphere last night.
The US space agency was quick to refute the suggestion that their old satellite was responsible for the glow seen over Kyiv.
In fact, they said, at the time of the glow, RHESSI was “still in orbit”.
Analysis by the US Department of Defense had predicted a re-entry time of roughly 8.50pm EDT yesterday, give or take an hour — that is, 3.50am local time this morning in Kyiv.
Following Mr Popko’s claims, a NASA spokesperson told the AFP that, at that time, “that reentry [had] not yet occurred. No NASA satellite re-entered the atmosphere earlier today.”
RHESSI — which was launched into low-Earth orbit from Cape Canaveral back in February 2002 — was designed to study the physics of particle acceleration and energy release in solar flares and coronal mass ejections from the surface of the Sun.
Coronal mass ejections, NASA explained, “release the energy equivalent of billions of megatons of TNT into the solar atmosphere within minutes and can have effects on Earth, including the disruption of electrical systems.
“Understanding them has proven challenging. Data from RHESSI provided vital clues.
“It achieved this with its sole instrument, an imaging spectrometer, which recorded X-rays and gamma rays from the Sun.
“Before RHESSI, no gamma-ray images nor high-energy X-ray images had been taken of solar flares.”
A guide on how and where to see April’s hybrid solar eclipse tomorrow[INSIGHT]
Celestial ‘copycat’ could look just like black hole – if it exists[ANALYSIS]
Space-based solar power plants probed ahead of 2025 ‘roll-out'[REPORT]
Over the course of its mission, RHESSI recorded more than 100,000 X-ray events.
However, it was ultimately decommissioned after 16 years of operation due to difficulties maintaining communications with the satellite.
Earlier this week, NASA said it “expects most of the spacecraft to burn up as it travels through the atmosphere, but some components are expected to survive reentry.
“This risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth [was] low — approximately 1 in 2,467.”
At present, it is not clear exactly over where on the Earth’s surface RHESSI did break up.
As Dr McDowell noted a few hours ago, “RHESSI should have reentered by now. No new info from Space Force yet though.”
Predicting its reentry path was difficult, he explained, because “It was going at 27,000 km/hr [16,777 miles per hour] — so a two hour uncertainty in reentry time is 54,000 kilometres [33,554 miles] uncertainty in location.”
Source: Read Full Article


Organizers and visitors are keeping their fingers crossed for summer weather during the London 2012 Olympics. The UK is currently languishing in a trough of low pressure, and has just seen the wettest June on record.
Temperatures of more than 100 degrees were forecast in Philadelphia, authorities warned of excessive heat in the Midwest and in the mid-Atlantic.
Chicago Executive Airport Temperatures Last Five Days
Saturday July 7, 2012 High 93°F, Low 73°F
Friday July 6, 2012 High 104°F, Low 81°F
Thursday July 5, 2012 High 103°F, Low 77°F
Wednesday July 4, 2012 High 103°F, Low 81°F
July 3, 2012 High 97°F, Low 78°F
Chicago O’Hare International Airport
Saturday July 7, 2012 High 98°F, Low 74°F
Friday July 6, 2012 High 103°F, Low 82°F
Thursday July 5, 2012 High 103°F, Low 79°F
Wednesday July 4, 2012 High 102°F, Low 79°F
Tuesday July 3, 2012 High 96°F, Low 77°F
Saturday July 7, 2012 High 66°F, Low 53°F (.02 in Rain)
Friday July 6, 2012 High 66°F, Low 57°F (.35 in Rain)
Thursday July 5, 2012 High 73°F, Low 57°F
Wednesday July 4, 2012 High 72°, Low 60°F (.01 in Rain)
Tuesday July 3, 2012 High 66°F, Low 59°F (.01 in Rain)
The 2012 Summer Olympic Games, officially the Games of the XXX Olympiad (London 2012) as per the official logo, are scheduled to take place in London, United Kingdom, from 27 July to 12 August 2012.
Become a fan of The Cardinal weather page. Submit your pictures or just stay up-to-date on weather topics — go direct to the Arlington Cardinal Weather photos. For a list of all of The Cardinal Facebook fan pages, go to Arlingtoncardinal.com/about/facebook …