On Wednesday 6 January four scientists from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology gave an hour-long background press briefing on the science behind flooding.
Yesterday we posted a summary of the introductory hydrological points made by Professor Alan Jenkins, our Deputy Director and Director, Water and Pollution Science.
Today’s post, by Prof Jenkins and colleagues Nick Reynard and Jamie Hannaford, is based on the parts of the briefing that examined natural flood management techniques such as tree planting, creation of woody debris dams and changes to upland management practices. In most cases the text below is based on the wording used by the scientists on the day. Questions from the audience were wide-ranging, so they’ve grouped the answers they gave on the day under a number of common areas.
Examining the scientific evidence – what do we know about natural flood management?
by Prof Alan Jenkins, Nick Reynard and Jamie Hannaford
“Hydrology at large catchment scale is an extremely complex mixture of natural and man-made water processes, pathways and storages.”
The use of ‘natural’ techniques for managing floods is much in the news at present. Here at the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology we have a long history of research on catchment science covering upland and lowland areas across the UK (and further afield). CEH scientists have been involved with work at research catchments including Pontbren, Plynlimon, Balquhidder, and many more, as well as national scale hydrological monitoring and modelling over the last five decades.
On Wednesday the three of us attended a press briefing in London where we were asked a number of questions on natural flood management techniques. We’ve summarised our responses below. It’s important to note that our answers are based on our varied experiences as hydrologists working on a variety of projects. We haven’t provided references here and would be very happy to expand on the points, and engage further. Our contact details can be found in the links at the bottom of the post.
“There is much still to be learnt about natural flood management techniques, and there is a pressing need to systematically review all the evidence to determine what works best in any particular catchment.”
At the very start of the briefing we were asked about the overall state of the evidence for flood management techniques. We replied,
There are many things that we believe can be done to mitigate floods, to stop floods happening or to reduce flood impact. Some of these things are perhaps manmade but some are more natural, such as rewilding of the environment which has been suggested many times over the last few weeks. All of them will work to some extent in some location. But hydrologically it's unlikely that any one of them will work to the same extent everywhere, or will provide a panacea for protecting all communities, all sites, against flooding.
Photo: Mixed land cover in an upland catchment, Plynlimon. (c. Simon Grant)
The discussion then moved onto the role of different types of upland management techniques. In response to a question about whether upland management could have reduced the flows seen during the extreme rainfall in the uplands during December 2015, we said,
…there is very little published scientific evidence that changes in the way we manage the uplands would have helped to reduce the flood impact in those flooded areas over the last few weeks.
We went on to explain why we held this view…
…although there's very little documented scientific evidence that different upland management would have helped, we were not saying that planting trees, or blocking drains, or removing sheep, would not have prevented flooding. We simply don't have the evidence to say that removing the sheep, covering the uplands with trees and building beaver dams, or having beavers build dams, would or would not have prevented the recent extreme flooding. Based on the published scientific evidence we don't yet know the answer.
Understandably we were then asked by the audience whether “…is that a lack of evidence, or rather that you don't suspect it would be of beneficial...consequence? Because we've heard an awful lot about managing catchments, upper areas, might actually make a bit of impact.”
We replied that it's to do with scale and magnitude.
A crucial point is the scale at which these kinds of scheme can operate and provide some kind of mitigation against flood peaks, and they will work in local and small catchments. They can provide some reduction in the flood peak or a slowing down of some of the water in local areas.
We added that it is also about the magnitude of the event, so they will work probably for events that are less extreme. However the more extreme events will overcome all of those sorts of schemes, and they'll cease to be effective on a large catchment scale for these very big events.
What we have seen so far this winter is remarkable; the wettest calendar month on record and some extraordinary daily totals, including the new 24h record. Extreme rainfall was observed over very large areas of upland Britain. Fuller analysis will be released on Friday 15th January within the December 2015 Monthly Hydrological Summary for the UK.
Graph right shows rainfall accumulation at COSMOS-UK sites during storm Desmond.
So it's not to say they don't work, there is some evidence from some of these schemes that have been put in with monitoring associated with them, which shows some attenuation for flood peaks, at local scales. The danger is then extrapolating that from a local scale benefit, to a national or even a large catchment scale, that it will reduce large flood peaks.
To conclude; there is some evidence from some smaller scale studies. The problem is that there’s quite a limited amount of research that's been done, and a lot of the work that has been done has all come to a similar conclusion that there would be some effect on some smaller flood peaks, but as soon as you get more extreme events then those local scale measures aren’t going to make much difference.
Another part of the briefing covered the need for a wide range of measures to help manage floods. We said,
Flood management is about a basket of measures. Some of them about engineering, such as the flood defences we have in towns, and so on. But they work as absolute defences, and upland management schemes will contribute to those. So we think if you have a basket of measures you'll protect against some events, and you’ll protect against others using high-class engineering. So we're not saying one thing will solve it. We're not about flood defence, we're about flood management, so it's a whole range of things that will contribute to managing it.
We also talked about the work on infiltration rates at Pontbren, Wales, which was carried out by CEH scientists.
On the afforestation issue specifically, there's been a lot of selective use of results from the Pontbren experiments which CEH were involved in, there's a lot of quoting the figure around, “infiltration in forested areas being 60 times more than in grassland”. You have to be very careful in interpreting those things. The result is important, but going back to what we said earlier about very extreme events, the additional infiltration is very useful but just because water goes into the soil doesn't meant that that's problem solved.
Think about the uplands, you've got very thin soils and the rocks underlying them are impermeable, i.e do not absorb water. So water doesn't just flow on the top of the soils, in fact often it doesn't, you've got flow in the soil itself, so just having more infiltration is not necessarily beneficial. Put simply you can't just extrapolate from these small plot experiments showing you have more infiltration to saying that forests will instantly be the solution. Even with greater storage, with big enough events stores will fill up.
A good analogy is a sponge, people again have made analogies of the uplands needing to be like a sponge. However even a sponge has a capacity and once stores start to become full up then of course they start to contribute to flow further downstream.
Next, there were questions on other types of natural flood management, such as debris dams. We said,
Debris dams can be part of this raft of measures that we’ve talked about and they can be very small, log dams that just hold back some of the water and some of the sediments. They're good for all sorts of reasons, such as water resources, for water quality, for carbon storage, so there's lots of good reasons to do that and they also contribute to flood mitigation at a local scale. So it's the same sort of issue though, you can have these dams and they might work but remember, for example, flood retention areas only work if they're empty or half empty, once they're full then there's no more capacity for them to hold back any more water so they only work to a certain level as well.
The audience at the briefing also wanted to know what needs to be done next. On new experiments we said,
There are different ways of doing experiments…We could go out and undertake field experiments. They're difficult, we’ve talked about the difficulty of the extrapolation from the small scale. We can only do small scale, plot scale we would call them, a few tens of meters on a short time scale, for a whole catchment we have to monitor for a long time period. So you would have to make an intervention, either take the sheep away, or put the trees in, and then you've got to wait for some time, in fact you've got to do some pre-manipulation monitoring and hope that you get some storms, and then you've got to do some post-manipulation monitoring. So what we’re saying is it takes a lot of years. We do have the opportunity to look around at catchments that are similar from the historical record which we could go away and start to do because we've got a lot of data from a lot of catchments.
We also have a number of models, hydrological models that we can perturb, and have a look at the outputs, but some would argue that that's not really evidence, but rather give you an indication of what's likely to happen. So we can start that immediately. But the hard evidence is really in observing a changed response, and that's not easy in a short time span. So in terms of experiments, the EA, SEPA, Natural Resources Wales and the Forestry Commission, and others, they are all putting in quite a lot of these types of schemes, and they're putting them in with monitoring. So they've just started over the last few years, and this is happening across Europe as well, actually, so there will be data coming in about how the response might have changed, hopefully at places where we have historical records where we can compare against. So there are going to be data coming in on the effectiveness or not of these schemes. That still leaves the problem of scaling up. How do we then build up to a national picture, how will that contribute to flood mitigation? Much more science is needed here.
As the briefing drew to a close, we concluded:
Natural flood management is one of those things that is 'no regrets', to use climate parlance. So we think that, although the evidence is limited, that on a big catchment scale, those measures will mitigate flooding, it is very likely that they will have some beneficial effect and that they will also have a lot of other positive environmental benefits. So it makes good sense to look into those policies where one can.


Oh! Are you looking at the globe and trying to understand the continents?
Let me guide you with this.
Let me guide you about all of it.
As you know the Planet Earth is like a huge ball with the surface made up of land and water.
If you look at the globe you will see that we can see only one side of the Earth at a time but if we strech the surface to get a map, it will look like this one.
This show the entire surface of the Earth: the dark blue areas are water, and rest of the area is land.
The whole land area of the Earth is divided into 7th parts, these are called: continents.
These continents are continuous Earth landmasses.These continents are: North America; Europe, Asia, Africa, South America and Antarctica.
Let's learn an easy way to remember these names, look at these sentence: "Erin Ate Nine Sticky Appricots At Aprils". "E", is for Europe, "A" is for Asia, "N" is for North America, "S" is for South America. Again, an "A" here is for Africa, another "A" for Australia, and yet another "A" for Antarctica. Remember: "Erin Ate Nine Sticky Appricots At Aprils". And now you can remember the names of all the continents.
Let's now go to each continent to know more about these. Oh! Wow! You are riding an elephant! You are in Asia! It is the biggest continent. It is about one third of all land on the Planet Earth. And also, six out of every ten people on the Earth live here. Which is the world 60% of the population. China and India, World's most populated countries are here. Also, do you know that the ten highest mountain peaks of the World are in Asia? Mount Everest, the highest mountain in the World is also in Asia. Most of the World's religions like Hinduism, Islam and Buddhism originated here.
Oh! Well! You are wearing diamonds and you are eating a chocolate. You seem to be in Africa! Half of the World's diamonds come from Africa. Also, most of the chocolate which you and I love, comes from here. Which is around 50 percent of the total chocolate produced in the World.
World's largest desert Sahara and the Wordl's largest River Nile, is also in Africa. It is the second largest continent among 7 continents. It is also said that the first human lived here. It is situated on the Equator, and that is whay it is very hot.
Oh! Don't be scared! These are kangaroos! These are found only in the Australian continent. In the Australian continent there is only one country which is Australia itself! Apart kangaroos, there are many other unique animals in this continent like Koala and Emus. It also has a sizable sheep population. They say there are 14 times more sheep in Australia than humans. Australia is also the largest Island in the world. In Australia seventy-five percent area is just dessert.
Oh my God! Save yourself! It is an Anaconda! The largest snake in the world. It is only found in South America. Hello! Cool down, have some coffee. Brazil. This country in South America is the World's largest producer of coffee. This continent has the World's Largest river, Amazon, the World's largest Mountain Range and the World's largest Salt Lake. It also has the World's highest volcano and the World's highest waterfall.
Oh! Look at that penguin dancing! This tells you we've come to Antarctica. 98% of this continent is covered with ice. That's why it is called the white or frozen continent. It is the World's coldest, windiest, driest and highest continent. Like desert, there's very less rain here. And that's why it is also called "the cold desert". There are no villages or cities here.
Wow! We are in Europe! the only continent with no deserts. The World's smallest country, Vatican City, is here. The Pope also lives here. All the countries in Europe have a single currency named Euro. The world's largest country by area, Russia, is situated here. Other important countries are: Britain, France and Germany.
Oh! You see the Statue of Liberty! Uh! We are in North America! Home of the world's largest innovative companies like Apple, Google and Facebook. It is also known as "New World" as it was discovered very late. You see this owl!? It's name is "Elf" and it is the World's smallest owl. It is found in this continent. It is the World's largest producer of mais, weat and soya bean. the world's thrid longest river, Mississipi is also in North America.


General Program, Ponte Vedra: Manatees
Jun 1, 2009
Manatees are on the endangered species list. Their numbers have been increasing, but in 2008, a record number of infant Manatees died, raising the question of their continued survival.
We will find out about the successes and issues surrounding these gentle “sea cows” from Dr Gerald Pinto, Associate Research Scientist at Jacksonville University. Dr. Pinto helped develop and implement the state approved Manatee Protection Plan for Duval and Clay Counties. He also has an interest in research on the impact of freshwater withdrawals, sea level rise, and the impact of harbor deepening effects on our own St. Johns River.
Northeast Florida Group
The main meeting room of the Ponte Vedra Beach Public Library on Library Road at AIA
(blinking light south of the intersection of AIA and Solana Road, on A1A about two miles south of Butler Boulevard)


An integrated project has been launched for the restoration of greenery to lessen the levels of pollution in the city and stabilise the groundwater table. The Srivarahalakshmi Narasimha Swamy Devasthanam has launched the Simhagiri Vanasamrakshana Yagnam, and plans have been made by the Simhachalam Devasthanam to take up a one lakh plantation programme by the end of December 2018.
The Simhachalam hills spread over a radius of 15 KMs have the potential to lessen carbon emissions by at least 10,000 tonnes per annum. They are one of the best sources of flora and fauna in the Eastern Ghats. The rapid urbanisation in the city has left the biodiversity damaged with exposed rock left on the hills. Several water springs along the hill have vanished with many on the verge of it.
Andhra University studied the environmental emergencies on the hill and provided the devasthanam with a master plan. It was found that 74 varieties of plants existed on the hill, out of which 34 were extinct. The devasthanam has been alerted and asked to take immediate measures if it wants to conserve the flora and fauna on these hills. 200 varieties of fauna were also found at the hill, but a huge number of flora and fauna has disappeared in the last three decades.
Hudhud in 2014 also let the Simhachalam hills severely damaged. The devasthanam has accepted the master plan and kickstarted the SVY project last year. During the 2016 monsoons, they planted 16,000 saplings. The devasthanam has also started its own nursery, and at present, 32,000 varieties of saplings are ready at the nursery for plantation. This year, they will be planting 20,000 saplings by the end of August/September.
Out of the 34 varieties lost, 30 have been recovered. 800 KGs of seeds have been covered with cow dung and the seedlings are expected to sprout during the monsoon rains. Arrangements are in place to plant one lakh saplings by the monsoon of 2018. Regarding the exposed rock, the devasthanam is adopting water seed management. Construction of trenches, circulation tanks and check damns have been taken up to conserve rain water.


Agricultural Chemicals in Iowa's Ground Water
The Iowa Department of Natural Resources, Geological Survey Bureau (GSB); the University of Iowa Hygienic Laboratory (UHL); and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have been working together to address this question. As part of the Iowa Ground Water Monitoring (IGWM) Program, water samples have been collected from selected Iowa municipal wells since 1982. An examination of this data identified two trends: 1) concentrations of atrazine were generally decreasing over time, and 2) concentrations of metolachlor were generally were increasing. Continuing ground-water sampling can determine if these trends represent long-term changes in chemical concentrations.
Iowa has some of the most productive farmland in the world. Agricultural chemicals (pesticides and nitrogen fertilizers) have become an integral part of farming in Iowa, where some of the most intensive applications are used (Battaglin and Goolsby, 1995). Intensive chemical use has focused investigations on Iowa to determine the occurrence of agricultural chemicals in ground water (Libra and others, 1987; Detroy and others, 1988; Hallberg, 1989; Kross and others, 1990). Research has documented that alachlor, atrazine, cyanazine, and metolachlor historically have been the most frequently detected pesticides in Iowa's ground water. This research has increased public awareness of the occurrence of agricultural chemicals in ground water. A public concern has been whether concentrations of agricultural chemicals have changed over time. Few studies, however, have provided the consistency and longevity to adequately address this issue on a regional scale (Barbash and Resek, 1996). In response to this concern, the Geological Survey Bureau, the University of Iowa Hygienic Laboratory, and the USGS formed the IGWM in 1982 to monitor agricultural chemicals in Iowa's ground water. From 1982-95, 2,041 nitrate samples from 1,024 municipal wells and 1,375 pesticide samples from 730 municipal wells were collected for the IGWM (fig. 1).
Figure 1. Location of the municipal wells repeatedly sampled from 1982-1995 for the IGWM.
Laboratory measurements of nitrate, alachlor, atrazine, cyanazine, and metolachlor were examined to determine if concentrations of agricultural chemicals have changed over time. These compounds were selected because they tend to be the most commonly detected agricultural chemicals in Iowa's ground water (Detroy and others, 1988; Hallberg, 1989). Samples collected over time from the same set of wells are the best samples to use to evaluate whether chemical concnetrations in ground water are changing. From 1982-95, 89 of the municipal wells in the IGWM were samples repeatedly (fig. 1). An examination of the data from these 89 wells indicated no significant change between the 1982-86 and 1987-91 time periods for any of the chemicals examined. No significant changes were found in nitrate, alachlor, or cyanazine between the 1987-91 and 1992-95 time periods. Concentrations of these compounds increased or decreased in roughly equal numbers of wells (fig. 2). However, atrazine concentrations generally decreased through the later time periods, and metolachlor concentrations generally increased (fig. 2).
Figure 2. Concentration differential for selected agricultural chemicals. This concentration differential was calculated by subtracting the median 1987-91 concentration from the 1992-95 concentration for the 89 wells having the longest record of agricultural-chemical data. The nitrate data is in parts-per-million and the herbicide data is in parts-per-billion.
WHAT MAY BE CAUSING THE OBSERVED CHANGES?Two factors that could cause changes
in the concentrations of agricultural chemicals in ground water are changes in precipitation (recharge) and in the amounts of chemicals applied to the land. Although precipitation is important, there are no obvious relations between precipitation and the temporal patterns found in this study for atrazine and metolachlor. However, changes in state-wide chemical use and application rates (table 1) suggest a link to the temporal trends of decreasing atrazine and increasing metolachlor concentrations in ground water. The more frequently and intensively a chemical is used, the more likely that it might reach ground water. Statewide atrazine use decreased and estimated 12 percent, along with an estimated 40 percent decrease in intensity of use (mass per unit area), whereas statewide metolachlor use increased an estimated 50 percent.
Table 1. Estimated use of selected agriculural chemicals in Iowa, 1982-95.Average chemical use Compound (1000 pounds/year of Average intensity of use active ingredient) (pounds/acre) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1982-85 1987-91 1992-95 1982-85 1987-91 1992-95 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Nitrogen fertilizer(1) 1,931,824 1,844,520 1,839,168 138 129 118 Alachlor(2) 13,800 8,246 5,180 2.01 2.25 2.28 Atrazine(2) 8,179 7,451 7,195 1.46 0.96 0.90 Cyanazine(2) 9,440 5,852 6,988 2.06 2.06 2.32 Metolachlor(2) 6,744 10,910 10,378 2.40 2.05 2.09
1. Vroomen, 1989; U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1995
2. Hartzler and Wintersteen, 1991; U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1995; Hallberg and others, 1996 Agricultural Chemicals in Iowa's Ground Water -- Are Things Changing?
WHERE ARE THESE CHANGES OCCURRING?
Changing concentrations of atrazine and metolachlor in ground water were most likely to be observed in shallow wells (fig. 3). This relation between temporal variability and well depth occurs because, as the distance between the land surface and the open interval of the well decreases, the ground water generally is younger (fig. 4). Consequently, changes in chemical applications at the land surface are indicated most rapidly in the youngest ground water.
The changing concentrations of atrazine (decreasing) and metolachlor (increasing) were most apparent in alluvial aquifers (fig. 5). Alluvial aquifers are sand and/or gravel water-bearing deposits beneath floodplains along stream valleys (figs. 6,7). Chemical changes were observed most frequently in alluvial aquifers because water from these aquifers tends to be younger than that from other aquifer types. Research by others has also found alluvial aquifers to be more susceptible to contamination by agricultural chemicals than most other types of aquifers (Hallberg, 1989; Kolpin and others, 1994; Kolpin and others, 1997).
Figure 3. Concentration differential for selected agricultural chemicals by well depth. This concentration differential was calculated by subtracting the median 1987-91 concentration from the 1992-95 concentration for the 89 wells having the longest record of agricultural-chemical data.
Figure 4. Generalized ground-water movement and pesticide transport in the subsurface (modified from Roberts and Jones, 1996).
Figure 5. Concentration differential for selected agricultural chemicals by aquifer type. This concentration differential was calculated by subtracting the median 1987-91 concentration from the 1992-95 concentration for the 89 wells having the longest record of agricultural-chemical data.
Figure 6. Conceptual geologic ross-section and aerial view of typical alluvial aquifers in Iowa (Prior, 1991).
Figure 7. Aerial view of an alluvial aquifer in northeast Iowa (Prior, 1991).
MORE DATA NEEDEDIdentifying changing agricultural chemical concentrations in ground water is a primary benefit of a long-term program such as the IGWM. It is important, however, that data continue to be collected for the IGWM for several reasons. First, by collecting additional data can, it be determined if the changes in chemical concentrations observed for this study will continue over time.
Because the variability in rainfall has been extreme in recent years -- from the drought of the late 1980s to the record floods of 1993 -- more time and data are needed to fully understand the impact of these climatic trends.
Second, the types of chemicals being used in Iowa are continually changing as their marketing rises and falls (just think how the chemical advertisements you see have changed). Without adequate data, it cannot be determined how these changes in chemical use affect ground-water quality. Third, recent research (Kolpin and others, 1996, 1997; Potter and Carpenter, 1995) has shown that pesticides can degrade into other compounds (degradates) that are being commonly found in ground water throughout the United States. Without data on these degradates, an understanding of the environmental fate of agricultural chemicals will remain incomplete. Finally, more data may be needed to observe chemical changes in older ground water.
The results presented in this report were summarized from a previously published research paper. Additional information on the results of this study is available in this paper:Kolpin, D.W., Sneck-Fahrer, D.A., Hallberg, G.R., and Libra, R.D, 1996, Temporal trends of selected agricultural chemicals in Iowa's groundwater, 1982-95: Are things getting better?: Journal of Environmental Quality, v 26, n. 4, p.1007-1017.
Barbash, J.E., and Resek, E.A., 1996, Pesticides in Ground Water: Distribution, Trends, and Governing Factors: Ann Arbor Press, Inc., Chelsea, MI, 588 p.
Battaglin, W.A., and Goolsby, D.A., 1995, Spatial data in geographic information system format on agricultural chemical use, land use, and cropping practices in the United States: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 94-4176, 87 p.
Detroy, M.G., Hunt P.K.B., and Holub, M.A., 1988, Ground-water-quality- monitoring program in Iowa: Nitrate and pesticides in shallow aquifers: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 88-4123, 32 p.
Hallberg, G.R., 1989, Pesticide pollution of groundwater in the humid United States. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, v. 26, p. 299-367.
Hallberg, G.R., Riley, D.G., Kantamneni, J.R., Weyer, P.J., and Kelley, R.D., 1996, Assessment of Iowa Safe Drinking Water Act monitoring data: 1988-1995: The University of Iowa Hygienic Laboratory Research Report No. 97-1, 132 p.
Hartzler, R., and W.K. Wintersteen, 1991, A survey of pesticides used in Iowa crop production in 1990. Iowa State University Extension Service Publication Pamphlet 1441, 11 p.
Kolpin, D.W., Burkart, M.R., and Thurman, E.M, 1994, Herbicides and nitrate in near-surface aquifers in the midcontinental United States, 1991: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 2413, 34 p.
Kolpin, D.W., Thurman, E.M., and Goolsby, D.A., 1996, Occurrence of selected pesticides and their metabolites in near-surface aquifers of the midwestern United States: Environmental Science & Technology, v. 30, p. 335-340.
Kolpin, D.W., Kalkhoff, S.J., Goolsby, D.A., Sneck-Fahrer, D.A., and Thurman, E.M., 1997, Occurrence of selected herbicides and herbicide degradation products in Iowa's ground water, 1995: Ground Water, v. 35, n. 4, p. 679-688.
Kross, B.C., and others, 1990, The Iowa State-wide rural well-water survey -- Water-quality data, initial analysis: Iowa Geological Survey Technical Information Series Report 19, 142 p.
Libra, R.D., Hallberg, G.R., and Hoyer, B.E., 1987, Impacts of agricultural chemicals on groundwater in Iowa: in Fairchild, D.M., ed., Ground water quality and agricultural practices: Lewis Publisher, Inc., Chelsea, MI, p. 185-217.
Potter, T.L., and Carpenter, T.L., 1995, Occurrence of alachlor environmental degradation products in groundwater: Environmental Science & Technology, v. 29, p. 1557-1563.
Prior, J.C., 1991, Landforms of Iowa: Iowa City, University of Iowa Press, 153 p.
Roberts, L.M., Jones, J.L., 1996, Pesticides found in ground water below orchards in the Quincy and Pasco Basins: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 171-96, 4 p.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1995, Agricultural chemical usage: 1994 field crops summary. National Agricultural Statistics Service and Economic Research Service. U.S. Dept. of Agric., Report Ag CH 1 (95).
Vroomen, H., 1989. Fertilizer use and price statistics, 1960-1988. Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, ERS Statistics Bulletin 780, 56 p.


- Flickr / Howard Ignatius
Yellowstone National Park may be best known for its Old Faithful geyser and its stunning wildlife, but the national park also sits atop a supervolcano that simmers just under the surface.
You can see evidence of the volcano’s active state in the park’s famous hydrothermal activity, including Old Faithful, which shoots water every few hours.
Because the area’s still active, researchers have been trying to determine when it might erupt again. And according to new research presented at the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior conference, it might take much less time for the supervolcano to go from not a problem to erupting than experts realized. Based on minerals from the last major eruption, the researchers found that the changes leading up to an eruption may happen in a matter of decades rather than thousands of years in advance as previously thought.
“It’s shocking how little time is required to take a volcanic system from being quiet and sitting there to the edge of an eruption,” Hannah Shamloo, a graduate student at Arizona State University who conducted the research told The New York Times.
Even so, she said, it’s still too early to determine an exact time scale of when the supervolcano will erupt. And scientists still don’t think Yellowstone’s supervolcano will erupt anytime soon (at least not in the next thousand years).
What constitutes a supervolcano
Yellowstone has had three major volcanic events in the past 2.1 million years, which led to the creation of the calderas, or large craters.
- BI Video
The impact of an eruption
The odds of the supervolcano erupting within a given year are one in 730,000, according to the US Geological Survey. But if it did blow, it could have extreme effects on surrounding areas.
For starters, the eruption could emit ash that would expand over 500 miles. For comparison, this map shows the area that the ash reached in the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption in Washington.
- BI Video
The eruption would likely cover the ground with as much as 4 inches of gray ash, which could be detrimental to crops growing in the Midwest.
Molten lava at temperatures up to 1,000 degrees Fahrenheit could also ooze out, though that’d be less of a concern than the ash. And the supervolcano would spew a whole bunch of gasses as well, including sulfur dioxide, which can lead to acid rain as well as global cooling as it reflects sunlight away from the Earth.
The explosion likely wouldn’t wipe out human life, but it certainly would be destructive, especially to the western half of the US.
In the meantime, researchers are keeping a close watch on Yellowstone to check for warning signs that an eruption might be underway.


Criminals, terrorists, and others who wish to penetrate an airport’s business operations have gotten smarter about how to use the Internet to commit a host of cyber crimes. They have gotten more organized and sophisticated, using a diverse set of tactics to launch multi-pronged attacks aimed at specific targets. In response, airports are now considering a variety of technologies to help them to do a better job of screening travelers and personnel. The exact role of technology continues to be debated within the industry and at the federal level.
That said, if an airport business should choose to implement technology for additional security measures, and while it would certainly advance the security of the operations, there comes a hidden risk: identity theft.
In order to ensure security, the federal government and airports themselves are demanding more thorough background checks on employees. The Transportation Security Administration holds lists of banned or suspect travelers. All of this information is highly sensitive and subject to security risk. Determining who has access to this information and ensuring that only authorized personnel get access should be a priority.
One measure for airports to consider implementing is stronger authentication of employees. Passwords alone are no longer secure, no matter how complex or how often they’re changed. Password crackers (freely available on the Internet) have made it nearly impossible to choose a password that a user can remember but that cannot be quickly cracked. Forcing more complex passwords (and more changes), causes users to write down the password, which certainly does not improve security.
Today, many organizations are exploring the use of strong authentication, which allows access based on at least two parameters: something you have and something you know — like ATM cards for the Internet.
This differs from the most prevalent authentication technologies in use today, which require a “shared secret” between the user and the application — usually a password — that the user must send over the network. The problem with this method is that identity thieves and hackers can intercept passwords, or they can break in, to back end directories and steal blocks of hashed passwords.
Many of the mechanisms used today for strong authentication still have this vulnerability. For example, one-time password tokens, a widely deployed form of two-factor authentication, still require the user to send a secret (the one-time password) over the network and to store a secret (the seed) in a server at the back end.
Though solid technology, one-time passwords need additional protection to be completely secure — the channel over which they are sent needs to be secured, and the seed should be stored in a specialized piece of hardware.
Another common form of two-factor authentication is the smart card, which provides very strong protection but does require physical provisioning of the cards. The underlying PKI infrastructure can be expensive and difficult to manage.
In formulating and implementing a strategy to ensure for proper identity information protection, airports must be proactive and account for current and future threats. Staying ahead of the bad guys requires just a few things:
Security specialist shares what the feds, industry groups are doing
The Next Phase General aviation airports and businesses brace for tighter security By Jeff Price July 2002 About the Author Jeff Price is a consultant with...


BACKGROUND: Bilateral tympanic membrane perforation may cause a loss of hearing resulting in impaired social interactions and academic performance, delayed language and cognitive development, and lower learning abilities in children, the overlay and the underlay techniques are the two standard methods for perforation repair, with much debate between which of the two is better, especially from the functional point of view. We compared the perforation closure rates and hearing improvement after surgery with the overlay and the underlay techniques to determine which of the two is preferable for tympanic membrane perforation repair in children. METHODS: This retrospective study involved 149 patients who had undergone myringoplasty. Pure tone audiometry was conducted before and after surgery and functional results were defined considering the air bone gap. RESULTS: The overall perforation closure rate was 91.9% in underlay and 90% in overlay technique and the air-bone gap <10 dB was respectively 60.6% and 38%. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, myringoplasty may be safe even in younger children and both techniques can achieve high rates of anatomical success. The optimal results after the underlay technique suggest that it should be more widely used and that it should be the first option when considering repair of tympanic membrane perforation.
Underlay or overlay myringoplasty in children: Which approach is better? / Canale, A.; Albera, A.; Gervasio, C. F.; Bruno, G.; Lacilla, M.; Albera, R.. - In: OTORINOLARINGOLOGIA. - ISSN 0392-6621. - 68:1(2018), pp. 6-11.
|Titolo:||Underlay or overlay myringoplasty in children: Which approach is better?|
|Data di pubblicazione:||2018|
|Digital Object Identifier (DOI):||http://dx.doi.org/10.23736/S0392-6621.17.02145-2|
|Appare nelle tipologie:||1.1 Articolo in rivista|
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|2018 - Underlay or overlay myringoplasty in children - which approach is better?.pdf||2a Post-print versione editoriale / Version of Record||Non Pubblico - Accesso privato/ristretto||Administrator Richiedi una copia|


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favourer of church-reform and a personal friend of Hus. He shared the latter's admiration of the writings of Wycliffe, and accepted the theories of the English church-reformer far more unconditionally than Hus ever did. Stanislas several times defended the famous articles of Wycliffe before the University of Prague. He afterwards entirely changed his views and became, with Palec and the infamous Michael de causis, one of Hus's bitterest enemies. It was, of course, the principal task of these enemies to maintain that Hus had expressed heretical opinions, and that they attacked him for this reason, not because he blamed the evil life of the Bohemian priests. Stanislas had written a book, known from its opening words as Alma Venerabilis. This book has not been preserved and we can only judge of its contents by Hus's refutation. It is certain that in his work Stanislas dealt largely with the power and authority of the pope, which he appears to have defined in a manner similar to that of the most extreme modern ultramontanes. His opinions were thus in direct opposition to those of Hus." As Hus very openly stated, Stanislas was to a great extent influenced by fear. Hus did not omit to draw attention to the strange contrast between Stanislas's former exaggerated praise of Wycliffe and his present equally exaggerated denunciations of the English divine. Replying to Stanislas's panegyric of the papal power, Hus naturally, though perhaps hardly fairly, alluded to the infamous character of Pope John XXIII., who then held the dignity of pontiff. After denying that it could be proved from Scripture that God had given unlimited power to a pope chosen at an election influenced by the favour of man, fear, and cupidity, Hus challenges Stanislas to prove John XXIII.'s claim to the throne" by the sanctity of his
· Stanislas quoted by Hus-stated that the pope was the head of the church in quo capite est fontalis et capitalis plenitudo ecclesiasticae potestatis supra terram propter quod illud caput omnes alias simul super terram dignitates officiarias, ecclesiasticas et seculares, Patriarchales, Episcopales, Sacerdotales, Clericales, Magistrales, Imperiales, Regales, Ducales, Marchionales, Comitales, Baronales, Militares, Consulares, etc., in dignitate transcendit innumerabiliter, in profunditate sicut fons, in altitudine sicut caput, in latitudine sicut alveus.” Responsio ad Scripta Stanislai (Hus Opera, 1715, vol. i. p. 324).
life and of his deeds, not by his desire for the comforts and honours of the world, not by the fulminations of terrible censures to show his power, not by the plundering of the subject fold, not by extortion and simony; for Christ hath said: 'Ye shall know them by their fruits.'"1 The book generally somewhat recalls the treatise De Ecclesia. We meet here again with the defence of the claim of the temporal power to control the papacy and the church. They were the same views that had appeared so prominently in the writings of Marsiglio of Padua and of the other theologians of the court of Louis of Bavaria, as well as in those of Wycliffe. We find again in this controversial work of Hus allusions to the two great fables of the Middle Ages, the one papal, the other anti-papal. I refer to the "donation of Constantine " and the tale of the Popess Joan, whom Hus calls “Agnes.” Hus here again affirms that Jesus Christ, not the pope, is the head of the Catholic Church. In this mass of argument founded on the writings of earlier theologians, we meet here and there with opinions very characteristic of Hus, who always wished to be a moralist rather than a theologian. Thus, when animadverting on the evil choice often made by popes when appointing bishops, he writes: “Christ, the bridegroom of the church, would far better and more readily choose for the people of the Bohemian nation a bishop learned in its law, able to preach the gospel in Bohemian, one living soberly, chastely, piously, and justly.”
?“ Non sufficit doctori (Stanislas) humana electio, quae ex favore humano, Timore vel cupidine processit, imo claudicat doctoris positio, nisi ipsam stabilitat a posteriori scilicet ex vitae et operum sanctitate ipsius Joannis, non ex aspiratione ad seculi commodum vel honorem, nec ex fulminatione censurae terrificae ad ostendendam dominationem, quam Petrus sequendo Christum prohibet, nec ex tonsione gregis subjecti per temporalium extorsionem, nec ex fomento publicanatus vel Simoniae. Cum dicat Christus, Dominus Joan, 10, Operibus credite; et Matth. 7, A fructibus eorum cognoscitis eos.” (Ibid. p. 342.)
2 Hus Opera, 1715, vol. i. p. 348.
HUS AT CONSTANCE
Hus and his companions, who had left Prague on October 11, 1414, were joined on their journey at Plzen (Pilsen) by Lord Henry of Chlum, surnamed Lacembok, who appears to have been sent by King Venceslas as a protector of Hus, and by John of Rejnstein, surnamed "Kardinal.” John of Rejnstein, a parish priest of Prague and a great friend of Hus, had, with Lord John of Chlum, undertaken to represent at the council the University of Prague. Mainly through the influence of Gerson and Cardinal d'Ailly they obtained no hearing, and the University of Prague was, like King Venceslas, unrepresented at Constance. The Bohemians passed the frontier of their country at Bärnau and arrived at the free imperial city of Nuremberg on October 19. On their way through German territory they were everywhere well received by the people, who saw in Hus the champion of church-reform, which all thoughtful men and the worthier members of the clergy also desired. The difference of nationality proved no barrier, and it may here be mentioned that nothing can be less true than the ancient statement which accuses Hus of having been an enemy of the Germans generally. It is certain that Hus disliked the Germans in Bohemia who had taken possession of most of the ecclesiastical benefices and other important appointments in his country, while they-not only at the time of Hus-looked down on the Bohemians as intellectually their inferiors. Hus's views on this question have already been mentioned, and I shall again have to refer to them. The feelings of the Bohemians of this period were somewhat similar to those which the Italians of the earlier part of the nineteenth century entertained towards the tedeschi, who were considered as intruders. When Italy became free the hatred of Germans gradually ceased. Of Hus's stay at Nuremberg, Mladenovic, his faithful companion
on his last journey, writes: 1 “When he (Hus) then arrived at Nuremberg with the lords, whom I have mentioned, after they had dined, some magister, I think he was one Albert, parish priest of St. Sebaldus, came to them saying that he wished to discourse with them in a friendly manner. After he (Hus) had consented, some other priests came, among whom was a doctor of theology) and several members of the council of the town. They then discoursed with the master for four hours on various matters connected with him, and on what rumour had reported, and when they had conferred on each one of these matters, they said: 'For certain, master, this which we have heard is catholic (doctrine). We have for many years taught and held these doctrines and we now teach and believe them, and if there is nothing else against thee, thou wilt certainly leave the council and return from it with honour.' And then they all parted in a friendly fashion." At Nuremberg Hus was informed that King Sigismund had now prepared the letter of safe-conduct for him, and it was suggested that he should proceed to Spires, where Sigismund then stayed, to receive the letter and place himself under the king's immediate protection. Hearing that many members of the council had already arrived at Constance, and that Pope John XXIII. was already on his way there, Hus decided to continue his journey directly to Constance. He begged his friend Lord Venceslas of Duba to proceed to the imperial court and receive the letter of safe-conduct for him. Hus has often been blamed for this decision, which certainly bears witness to his innate belief in the goodness of human nature, and perhaps to his want of worldly wisdom. Yet if we take the nature of Sigismund into account and remember that he was acting in accordance with a preconceived plan, it is difficult to believe that the final result would have been different had Hus proceeded to Spires. From Nuremburg the Bohemians continued their journey through Southern Germany by Ansbach and Ulm to Biberach, then a free city, now an insignificant and decaying town in the kingdom of Würtemburg. Here, as everywhere, the Bohemians
· Palacky, Documenta.
showed that fondness for theological discussions which was then characteristic of their nation and which only disappeared when, after the battle of the White Mountain, all religious liberty perished for centuries. When a discussion on religious matters began at Biberach, Lord John of Chlum took so prominent a part—while Hus spoke little-that the citizens believed him to be a doctor of theology. His companions henceforth gave Lord John the nickname, doctoralis de Pibrach. From Biberach the Bohemians proceeded by Ravensburg to Buchhorn, on the lake of Constance. They crossed the lake in a boat and arrived at the city of Constance on November 3, 1414. Hus was lodged in the house of “a good widow named Fida," as Mladenovic writes, which was situated in St. Paul's Street-now called Hus's Street-near the Schnetz gate. The house, which is probably little changed, is shown to visitors. A medallion with a bust of Hus and an inscription in Bohemian and German was placed on it some years ago. In his first letter 1 after his arrival at Constance Hus writes, on November 4: "We arrived at Constance on the Saturday after All Saints without any annoyance, after having passed through different cities and after having everywhere distributed our proclamation (stating that Hus was going to Constance freely to clear himself of the accusation of heresy), written both in Latin and in German. We live at Constance near the pope's dwelling-place, and have arrived without safeconduct. The day after my arrival Michael de causis placed on the door of the church (cathedral) an information against nie written in large letters and stating that he accuses John Hus, a man excommunicated, pertinacious, and suspected of heresy and other such things. But with God's help I will not heed this, knowing that God sent him against me that he (Michael) should curse me because of my sins, and also to try me (my strength) whether I could and would endure suffering.” 2
· Palacky, Documenta. When the contrary is not stated I have always quoted Hus's letters from Palacky's work, which contains far the most complete collection of documents referring to Hus.
* The letter-written in Latin-ended with the words: Datum in Constantia. Oretis Deum pro constantia in veritate."


Meets immovable object.
Feb 23, 2009, Vol. 14, No. 22 • By ALONZO L. HAMBY
Truman & MacArthur
On April 11, 1951, in the midst of the stalemated Korean war, Captain Harry S. Truman, 129th Field Artillery, 1917-19, aka, president of the United States, summarily fired General of the Army Douglas MacArthur, commander in chief, Far East (CINCFE). The widespread public reaction was shock and outrage. Few Americans thought that Truman, whose fragile popularity was already in decline, had the credentials to sack a five-star general widely believed to have been the greatest military leader of World War II.
MacArthur, who had not set foot in the United States since 1935 when he left to develop and command the Philippine army, returned in a way that Julius Caesar would have envied. Making his way from San Francisco to Washington to the cheers of millions of Americans, he arrived in the nation's capital on April 19 to deliver a nationally broadcast speech to Congress. His gifts for oratory and self-dramatization undiminished by his 71 years, he charged the administration with denying him the opportunity for victory in the Korean War and concluded by telling his listeners, "Old soldiers never die; they just fade away."
Missouri Republican congressman Dewey Short voiced a widespread sentiment when he declared, "We heard God speak here today."
A Caesar, brought to the seat of power on such a tide, would have dispatched his enemies, assumed power, and waged war as he wished. If in a generous mood, he might have assigned Captain Harry to a tiny Pacific atoll. As it was, MacArthur simply faded away, remaining an icon to a cadre of hard-core supporters, but soon forgotten by a larger public drawn to the more enduring appeal of another five-star general, MacArthur's onetime aide Dwight D. Eisenhower.
The Truman-MacArthur controversy is most often remembered as a real-life morality tale that vindicates the vital importance of civilian control of the military. President Truman, so the narrative goes, was a doughty small-d
The Korean peninsula, divided between Soviet and American occupiers in 1945 at the 38th parallel, existed on the fringes of the Cold War in June 1950. China had, by then, fallen to Mao Zedong's Communist insurgency with little regret from the Truman administration. American civilian and military officials were contemptuous of Chiang Kai-shek's ineffective Kuomintang regime, convinced in any case that the United States could not defend every anti-Communist government, and hopeful that Mao would be an independent Communist in the mode of Yugoslavia's Marshal Tito. (American statesmen perennially assume their adversaries are rational actors: "Fifty years later," Pearlman comments, "Washington was still searching for reasonable leaders in Serbia, Iraq, and Iran, as well as the Taliban government of Afghanistan.")
Impoverished and strife-ridden, the new nation of South Korea had staggered along on the brink of anarchy under its autocratic president Syngman Rhee. American military forces were withdrawn in 1949. In January 1950, Secretary of State Dean Acheson delivered a major address at the National Press Club, outlining a Pacific defense perimeter that pointedly excluded both South Korea and Chiang's last redoubt, Taiwan.
Acheson's pronouncement reflected an administration consensus that America could dominate the Pacific but not the Asian mainland. The major object of American foreign policy had to be the strategically and economically valuable regions of Western Europe, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East. The task required aid to Greece and Turkey in 1947. The Marshall Plan, approved by Congress in 1948, provided Western Europe the means for economic recovery. The North Atlantic Treaty and the establishment of NATO followed in 1949.
At the beginning of the effort, the president had proclaimed the Truman Doctrine: "It must be the policy of the United States to support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures." This bold statement resonated much more loudly than Truman's qualifier that such help would be mainly through economic aid. Having left the impression of a universal commitment to block Communist expansion, Truman made reliance on economic assistance all the more necessary by drastically cutting the defense budget.
By 1950, the European strategy was a manifest success, but a significant section of the Republican party--much of it isolationist before World War II--had emerged as "Asia Firsters," criticizing the administration for the loss of China and arguing for support to Chiang. On June 25, the North Korean invasion of the South brought Asia to the center of American attention.
Having written off South Korea and sharply reduced American military capabilities, why did the Truman administration decide to fight there? If South Korea had fallen to internal subversion, the United States would have done nothing. But could it ignore a cross-border invasion of a client state without undermining the credibility of a NATO structure that existed mainly on paper? Munich, less than a dozen years in the past, was a living memory. Truman's instincts, moreover, were for intervention, whatever the difficulties.
"Dean, we've got to stop the sons of bitches no matter what," he told Acheson. The Europeans, responding with fulsome praise, seemed to agree. A United Nations resolution legitimized the effort.
Driven into a perimeter around the southeastern port of Pusan, American troops and the remnants of the South Korean Army held the line. On September 15, 1950, a flawless amphibious landing at Inchon turned the tide. About two weeks later, with explicit permission from Washington,
MacArthur sent his troops across the 38th parallel in an ill-coordinated dash for the Yalu River. China, he assured Truman in a mid-October meeting at Wake Island, would not intervene.A month later, at least a quarter million Chinese troops moved into North Korea without detection, struck hard at American units, and sent them on a long retreat. European allies who had lauded the decision to intervene were soon obsessed with the fear that American power and attention would be sucked into the quicksand of Asia.
What the Europeans feared, MacArthur saw as an opportunity. Asia had been the focus of his career for a decade and a half. Convinced that Europe was the past and China the future, he saw the Korean conflict from the beginning as a vehicle for liberation of the mainland. Swallowing his own doubts about Chiang and not bothering to seek authorization from Washington, he had flown to Taiwan for talks with the Kuomintang leader. He thereby established the appearance of an alliance and fed Mao's paranoia.
MacArthur astoundingly would tell Washington in February 1951 that 100,000 Kuomintang troops, landed with American support, could achieve "the domination of South China behind the protective line along the Yangtze River." Neither the White House nor the Pentagon bought into this optimistic scenario, but the politics of the war compelled a commitment to the defense of Taiwan, previously written off as militarily insignificant.
In early 1951 Americans and South Koreans, under the command of General Matthew B. Ridgway, managed to stop the overextended Chinese offensive, then push the enemy back to the vicinity of the 38th parallel. Like most historians, Pearlman commends Ridgway's reinvigoration of a beaten army, and he especially lauds Marine General Oliver P. Smith, whose brilliantly executed retreat from the Chosin reservoir preserved his own force while doing great damage to the Chinese.
The Truman administration was ready for negotiations to end the war; it signaled MacArthur to establish a strong defense line and concentrate on inflicting maximum casualties. Eager to assuage European fears, it had already drafted General Eisenhower from retirement to command NATO. Now committed to a military buildup, it bolstered Ike's reassuring presence by sending fresh divisions to Europe rather than Korea.
MacArthur, contrary to a widely held belief, seems never to have requested authority to use atomic bombs against the Chinese. Nonetheless, his protests were loud and clearly intended to benefit Asia-First Republicans. Truman, drawing on his study of the Civil War, had been inclined to leave military matters to the generals and give them support. Superficially plausible, his approach in practice failed to make a distinction between battlefield tactics and grand strategy. The president tolerated MacArthur's misadventures and insubordination until the general more or less openly aligned himself with the Republicans.
By then, MacArthur's dismissal was possible only because Truman could count on the support of General George Marshall (now secretary of defense), General Omar Bradley (chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff), and General J. Lawton ("Lightning Joe") Collins (Army chief of staff). Eisenhower, who had no love for MacArthur, remained silent, but his presence at the head of NATO did much to convince the American public of Europe's importance. They and other military eminences had already played key roles in the Truman presidency. Just three days before MacArthur's recall, the New York Times columnist James Reston had written that "prominent soldiers are supplying much of the balance, statesmanship and confidence so sorely needed by the Administration."
Resolutely passing up every opportunity to dramatize a dramatic story, Pearlman eschews grand narrative. He uses military acronyms (especially the ghastly CCINFE) too freely, displays a sometimes confusing lack of respect for chronology, and seems to end every second sentence with a dangling clause. What distinguishes his work is its extensive research and an evenhanded skepticism that delineates the failures and weaknesses of both Truman and MacArthur.
He dissects Truman's temperament plausibly. It may be impossible to explain to a contemporary audience just how an elderly general who affected a corncob pipe and a ridiculous combover of a bald pate could overawe the American public, the Pentagon, and, for a time, the president. Still, the author has researched his subject extensively, frequently displays a fine sense of irony, and has produced probably the best study of this subject to date.
MacArthur, he reminds us, was only the most spectacular example of a series of military officers after World War II who too openly argued with civilian leadership and were shunted aside. Ridgway himself would be forced into retirement in 1955 for arguing with President Eisenhower's budget cuts. Wesley Clark's zeal for combat in Kosovo 40 years later ended similarly. Admiral William Fallon's open skepticism about the surge in Iraq terminated his career. In these and other cases, the cashiered officers went quietly and with little public notice. All, in one way or another, protested against a policy that did not appear to be backed by adequate resources. Expansive ends and limited means still constitute a central dilemma of American grand strategy.
Today, a prosperous South Korea seldom remembers the Korean war, pursues a romantic vision of reunification with the North, and as recent mass demonstrations show, seems gripped by the menace of U.S. beef. China has made a transition from Mao's primitive Communist socialism to a flourishing fascistic state capitalism. It has begun a long-term program of amassing naval power that could lead to the occupation of Taiwan in the not-so-distant future.
As in 1951, the United States remains the world's major defender of liberal values, possessing enormous firepower and technical capabilities. It also has an undersized military, allies even more reluctant to share in heavy lifting, and a far more uncertain sense of national purpose.
Alonzo L. Hamby, distinguished professor of history at Ohio University, is the author, most recently, of For the Survival of Democracy: Franklin Roosevelt and the World Crisis of the 1930s.


Tokyo Electric Power Co. is expected this month to begin taking out fuel rods from a pool inside a reactor building at the tsunami-hit plant, in a technically challenging operation that will test the utility’s know-how after months of setbacks and glitches.
Experts say the operation is a tricky but essential step in the decades-long decommissioning process after the worst atomic accident in a generation.
|This file picture taken by Tokyo Electric Power Co. on April 17 shows members of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Division of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology inspecting the No. 4 reactor building of TEPCO’s crippled Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in Okuma town, Fukushima prefecture, Japan. (AFP-Yonhap News)|
More than 1,500 nuclear fuel assemblies ― bundles of rods ― need to be pulled out of the storage pool where they were being kept when the tsunami smashed into Fukushima in March 2011.
The reactor the pool serves ― No. 4 ― was not in operation at the time but hydrogen from Reactor No. 3 escaped into the building and exploded, tearing the roof off and leaving it at the mercy of natural hazards like earthquakes, storms or another tsunami.
TEPCO says it has not yet found any damage to the assemblies at No. 4, which contain a mixture of uranium and plutonium, but will be monitoring for abnormalities.
The removal of fuel is part of regular work at any nuclear power plant, but “conditions are different from normal because of the disaster,” said company spokeswoman Mayumi Yoshida.
“It is crucial. It is a first big step towards decommissioning the reactors,” she said. “Being fully aware of risks, we are determined to go ahead with operations cautiously and securely.”
Chunks of debris that were sent flying into the pool by explosions have largely been removed and a crane has been installed. A protective hood has been erected over the building‘s skeleton to contain any radioactive leaks.
A remotely-controlled grabber will sink into the pool and hook onto a fuel assembly, which it will pull up and place inside a fully immersed cask.
The 4.5-meter bundles weighing 300 kilogram have to be kept in water throughout the operation to keep them cool.
The 91-ton cask will then be hauled from the pool ― containing as many as 22 fuel assemblies and a lot of water ― to be loaded onto a trailer and taken to a different storage pool, where the operation will be reversed.
Experts warn that any slip-ups could quickly snowball and even minor mishaps will create considerable delays to the already long and complicated decommissioning.
If the rods are exposed to the air they could heat up, a process that if left unchecked could lead to a self-sustaining nuclear reaction. TEPCO says that is unlikely, but skeptics say that with so many unknowns in the novel operation, there is potential for a catastrophe.
“This is the first practical milestone for the project,” said Hiroshi Miyano, a nuclear systems expert and visiting professor at Hosei University in Tokyo.
“Any trouble in this operation will considerably affect the timetable for the entire project,” he said. “This is an operation TEPCO cannot afford to bungle.”
Miyano’s comments reflect an increasingly widespread view that the giant utility is not capable of dealing with the mess its nuclear plant has created.
Months of setbacks have included multiple leaks from tanks storing the water used to keep reactors cool, and a power outage caused when a rat electrocuted itself on a circuit board.
TEPCO’s management of the problems has been criticized as haphazard and uncoordinated, with one government minister saying it was like watching someone playing “whack-a-mole.”
The full decommissioning of Fukushima is likely to take decades and include tasks that have never been attempted anywhere in the world.
Meanwhile, villages and towns nearby remain largely empty, their residents unable or unwilling to return to live in the shadow of the leaking plant because of the fear of radiation.


Three years ago, in May 2001, the World Health Assembly came to the
conclusion that it was safe for the majority of infants to be exclusively
breastfed for the first 6 months of life, and extending the period of exclusive
breastfeeding to that age would also be beneficial. This conclusion was
translated into a recommendation of exclusive breastfeeding for 6 months,
and while complementary feeding of high-quality should be introduced at
that age, breastfeeding should preferentially be continued beyond the second
year of life.
Immune tolerance is an essential mechanism which maintains a state of
unresponsiveness to autoantigens and food while generating protective
immunity against pathogens. This phenomenon was discovered by the fact
that exposure to an antigen before the development of an immune
response specifically abrogates the capacity to respond to that antigen in
later life [1, 2]. Tolerance-inducing strategies have been demonstrated in
animal models of autoimmunity, allergy and transplant graft rejection and
therefore have opened the way for testing such approaches in human
diseases. Immune tolerance can be established by respiratory or oral
exposure to the allergen.
The normal immunological response to food antigens is geared to the
induction of tolerance, that is to say, unresponsiveness in the case of their
further ingestion. Allergic sensitization may be considered as a failure or a
breaking of immunological tolerance. It is becoming clearer and clearer that
the development of oral tolerance is highly dependent on the intestinal microflora;
indeed the intestinal bacteria have the ability to induce the formation of
cytokines of Th1 immunity (particularly of INF) and also IL-10 and IL-12,
which counteract the Th2-dependent allergic sensitization and favor the state
of Th1/Th2 equilibrium that prevails later in life in normal children .
From the weaning period and onwards the intestinal mucosa is exposed
to an increasing number of antigens, e.g. food components and microorganisms.
Of all the antigens that reach the systemic circulation from the
gut lumen, only a minority are potentially harmful to humans and need to
be defended against. The majority of intestinal antigens do not require a
protective immune response, but may even be beneficial for the individual.
Thus, the mucosal immune system must have the capacity to discriminate
between when an appropriate protective immune response to harmful
foreign antigens is required and when a muted or non-response is preferable.
The indigenous microbiota of an infant’s gastrointestinal tract is created
through complicated contact and interaction with the microbiota of the
parents and the infant’s immediate environment. Nature-induced initial
colonization is enhanced by galacto-oligosaccharides in breast milk and the
microbiota of the mother. This process directs the later microbiota succession
and health of the infant throughout the rest of his/her life [1, 2]. Thus,
understanding and positive guidance of the process through dietary means is
an important target when facilitating the mother–infant relationship through
birth, breastfeeding, weaning and the first years of life. This process forms
the platform for healthy gut microbiota throughout the entire life and is
described in figure 1 [3, 4].
Carbohydrates are responsible for 25–50% of daily energy intake. The
carbohydrate composition of the diet changes with age. In breast milk and
standard infant formulas, lactose is the only or predominant carbohydrate;
starches and other sugars follow with the introduction of ‘beikost’. In the
healthy, balanced diet of children and adults starches (and fiber) should
prevail. The small bowel only absorbs monosaccharides, so dietary carbohydrates
have to be hydrolyzed into their constituent monosaccharides
glucose, galactose and fructose.
Over the past half century, the entity known as chronic nonspecific
diarrhea of childhood or toddler’s diarrhea, has followed a path from case
descriptions to disease and finally, within the past 10 years, to a defined
functional disorder. Chronic nonspecific diarrhea of childhood was originally
thought to be part of the ‘celiac syndrome’. As Davidson and Wasserman
noted in their seminal paper published in the Journal of Pediatrics in
December of 1966, the pioneering pediatric gastroenterologists of the time,
had defined a number of specific disorders within what was then called the
‘celiac syndrome’, including gluten-induced enteropathy, disaccharidase
deficiencies, lympangiectasia and abetalipoproteinemia.
Advances in neonatology over the past 2 decades have resulted in the
survival of very preterm infants. However, the major limiting factor to survival
of such infants is the ability to initiate and maintain adequate nutrition.
Multiple maturational events are necessary for successful enteral nutrition
of the infant: coordination of sucking and swallowing; effective gastric
emptying; forward propagation of small intestinal contents, and finally, colonic
elimination. Since normal gastrointestinal function relies on the integrated
maturation of absorptive, secretory and motor function, a delay in any one of
these processes will result in disturbed gastrointestinal function. Immature
gastrointestinal motility manifested by vomiting, abdominal distention, delay
in stooling and constipation commonly postpone the time of full enteral
feeding in premature infants.
Food allergy occurs in 6–8% of children and 1–2% of adults and is
permanently increasing throughout the world [1, 2]. Most of the adverse
reactions to food are immune-mediated reactions, and food antigens may
cause IgE and non-IgE immune responses. Of the numerous symptoms of food
allergy, at least in the early stages, gastrointestinal disorders, from food
protein-induced enterocolitis to constipation, are of paramount importance
and are often associated with proctitis.
Since the 1970s the importance of dietary fiber for human health has been
acknowledged and investigated. In the 1970s a relation was found for the first
time between constipation, hemorrhoids and fiber-depleted food. The term
dietary fiber is familiar to most people, although many do not fully
understand the nature of dietary fiber and its role in the diet. Dietary fiber is
a normal constituent of healthy food. Both in enteral and oral feeding the
presence of fiber is necessary; not only in the face of problems like
constipation and encopresis but also for a wide range of other disorders in
adults and children such as diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, high
blood pressure and colon cancer. In this chapter we will review the
nomenclature, physiological properties and fate of fiber in man and its
applications in pediatric gastroenterology .
In this review, the ‘early influences’ considered include genetic, prenatal,
early postnatal and childhood influences on perception and taste preferences.
‘Taste’ is used in its broad sense, including taste, flavor, and texture.
‘Preferences’ include responses to tastes and flavors, as well as to foods and
Despite the widespread epidemic of overweight and obesity, little attention
has been given until recently to the potential of ‘junk foods’ in its causation.
This essay discusses the role of ‘junk food’ in nutrition-related disorders and
some associated factors that affect this problem. It also considers whether
‘junk foods’ are intrinsically unhealthy, whether their pattern of consumption
is contributory, and whether the term ‘junk eating’ is useful.
An epidemic of obesity is occurring in the US and many other developed
countries, and appears to be responsible for an associated increase in the
prevalence of type-2 diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension. Alarmingly,
this trend for increasing adiposity and its comorbidities is not limited to
adults, but is also threatening children at younger and younger ages. Over
the last three decades, the prevalence of overweight among children age
2–19 years has nearly doubled in the US .
Type-1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease which attacks insulin-producing
ß cells in the pancreas. This autoimmune process is characterized by the
appearance of circulating autoantibodies against ß-cell antigens, such as
insulin, glutamate decarboxylase (GAD) and tyrosine phosphatase. The
infants of mothers with type-1 diabetes do not have autoimmune diabetes
despite the transfer of IgG antibodies, including autoantibodies to ß cells, to
the child via the placenta.
Much is known about the short-term effects of complementary feeding
(CF), especially how an optimal diet can prevent poor growth, malnutrition
and nutrient deficiencies. The CF period has always been identified as a period
during which the infant has a high risk of developing stunting, protein-energy
malnutrition and specific nutrient deficiencies such as iron-deficiency anemia
and rickets. Furthermore, during this period, the risk of infectious diseases
increases dramatically and the mortality from infectious diseases during this
age is closely associated with the nutritional status.
There is relatively little systematic evidence on which to base any informed
advice about the introduction of foods other than breast milk or breast milk
substitutes. Arguably once solids have become the major component of a
young child’s diet there is even less evidence about optimum feeding .
Typically diversification of an infant’s diet has been very much influenced by
parental belief and cultural practice.
In the post-war period in the Western world, consumption of food has
changed from a daily activity to fill the stomach to a social event. Daily meals
play an important part in family life. Diners are used to tie friendships,
relations, to create a suitable climate for business deals and to celebrate. But
at the same time concern about food as a factor that will influence health and
disease has been growing rapidly.


Analysis of temperature and other data from more than 1,000 meteorological stations worldwide has found 2013 was the seventh-warmest year since 1880, adding more evidence to the long-term rise in global warming, according to NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. Nine of the 10 warmest years in the 134 years covered by the analysis have occurred since 2000, and the 10th was 1998. The latest GISS analysis finds 2013 tied with 2009 and 2006 in global ...
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Excavations – Important – Punjab
Bara (30°17′; 76°47′), Dt Rupnagar, Punjab.
Bara is located 6 km east of Ropar and was excavated in 1955 and 1971 by Y.D.Sharma on behalf of the ASI. The 4 m thick accumulation here revealed a single culture throughout, although the deposit has been divided into lower, middle and upper levels.
The site is extremely rich in a distinct class of pottery made of well-levigated clay, the pottery is wheel-turned and possesses a fine and consistent texture. It is self-slipped or slipped with a brown-coloured clay which gets burnt to shades of brown-red. The designs consist of either painted in black or chocolate-brown or are incised with wooden points or brushes. Some of the basic pottery types bring to mind Harappan parallels, such as the dish-on-stand, large basin or bowl with flaring sides and large jar with a bulging convex profile, all possessing a thick and sturdy section. There are however certain features in these shapes where the correspondence breaks down; for instance, most of the Bara ware is embellished with painted or incised patterns, while a large proportion of the Harappa Ware is plain. The stem of the Bara dish-on-stand is generally short and wide, as distinct from the long and slender stem of the Harappa counterpart. The long stem of Bara has a projecting ledge below the dish. Among diagnostic shapes or features of the Bara pottery are: the large bulbous jar with long neck and flaring rim, jar with collared rim, the body being bulbous or bluntly carinated at the belly, cooking utensil or water jar incised on shoulder and rusticated at the bottom with ‘honeycombed’ ridges, brush-made spirals or fingered patch-work-all executed in Wet Ware technique.
Conversely such characteristic Harappa designs as intersecting circles, horizontally drawn opposed loops enclosing cross-shaped motif, pipal leaf, peacock and fish-scales are absent in the Bara paintings. Wavy, zigzag or looped lines form a basic element both in painted and incised Bara decoration. Characteristic among the painted motifs are: ‘horn’ like curve crowned by an arrowhead or some other motif; opposed triangles or semicircles; willow leaves in vertical or horizontal series; parallel wavy lines enclosing ‘eyes’ or lozenges; hatched ‘net’; loops with humps surmounted by lines; grouped triangles; squares or rectangles with alternate hatching in different directions; series of solid dots enclosed by horizontal bands; ‘eyes’ fringed by vertical lines; ‘wings’ surmounted by lines; square with ‘bastions’ or scrolls at corners; chain; and plain wide band on neck. Among fauna the fish is common, but other animals are rare. Several of these designs are absent from the Harappa repertoire but occur op the pottery of pre-Harappan Kalibangan, Kot-Diji, Amri (both in Pakistan), Mundigak (Afghanistan) and sites in north Baluchistan. All the characteristic elements of the Bara ware are present at the site right from the lowest levels.
Among the animal bones were those of Elephas maximus Linn. (Indian elephant), Bos indicus. Linn. (zebu or domesticated humped cattle of India), Bubalus bubalis Linn. (Indian domesticated buffalo), Capra hircus aegagrus Erxleben (domesticated goat), Ovis aries dolichura Duerst (domestic sheep), Axis axis Erxieben (chital or spotted deer) and Sus scrota cristatus wagner (domestic pig). Bara has given four C-14 dates,among the other three dates, two, 1890 + 95 and 1845 +155 B.C., come from the middle levels and the third, 1645+90 B.C., from the upper levels. Considering that there is a substantial deposit of 1.8 m below the level yielding the date of 1890 + 95 B.C., Bara would date at least to a span of 2000 to 1600 B.C.
Kotla Nihang Khan (30°57′; 76°32′), Dt Rupnagar, Punjab
Lying about 2 km s.-e. of Ropar on the eroded and flat SiwaIik formations. The mound is badely destroyed by modern construction and agricultural activities. Vats (1929) surmised that the value of his discovery lay in extending the zone of the Indus civilization to the Sutlej- Yamuna doab.
Kotla Nihang Khan continued to be regarded as an outpost of the Harappa culture till the excavation of Roper. The site was again excavated in 1955 by Y.D. Sharma on behalf of the ASI and three Periods: Harappa, Kushan and medieval were identified. Period I suggests two phases. The e. sector, with typical mature Harappa deposit while in the w. sector the Harappa deposit the Harappa pottery is interlocked here with some quantity of the Bara ware from the bottom to the top of Period I, suggesting that in Phase I the Harappans occupied the e. sector and subsequently in Phase 2 they spread also to the w. sector where the Bara people also joined them.
The evidence of Period II is provided by a very thin but unmistakably identifiable deposit of Kushan pottery overlying the Harappa levels in the w. sector. No structures or other objects of this Period have been noticed. Period III, medieval, is however substantial, with an average thickness of 2 m. The deposits are fairly rich in fragments of medieval glazed ware and Well-planned structures of lakhauri brick Archaeological importance of Kotla Nihang Khanlies in the fact that it is the only site
known so far on the Sutlej where mature Harappa pottery is prolific, with the Bara Ware accounting for not more than 5% of the total. Apparently it represents an earlier phase than that of the Harappa levels of ROPAR, where the characteristic shapes like the Indus goblet and flat thall are very scarce and where the Bara ware vies with the Harappa.
Rupar, Ropar (300 58; 76O 32′),Dt Rupnagar, Punjab
Lying on the left bank of the Sutlej. The excavations yielded a sequence of six Periods: I (Harappa, c. 2100 to 14OOB.C,); II (PGW, c. 1000 to 600 B.C.); III (NBPW or early historical, c. 600 to 200B.C.); IV (middle to late historical, c. 200 B.C. to A.D. 700); V (late historical, c. 700-1200); and VI (medieval, c.l200-1700). Some of these Periods are divided into-Sub Periods. There are three mounds at Ropar, n., S., and w. The s mound is occupied by the present-day town. Excavations were confined to the n. and w. mounds, the latter concealing a Harappa cemetery. Ropar has the distinction of being the site where the remains of the Harappa civilization were excavated for the first time in post-partition India.
Apart from mature Harappa objects named above, mention may also be made of beads and bangles of faience triangular terracotta cakes and chert weights. Compared with the mature Harappa as asemblage at Harappa and Mohenjo-daro, it is the absence of the goblet with pointed base and terracotta figurines including the mother goddess which strikes one most. In I A levels only one mud-brick wall of three
courses has been encountered. The bricks are irregular in size but have a uniform thickness of 10 cm. The only wall noticed in I B at RPR-2 is built of river pebbles. Phase I C is however rich in housing remains with seven structures assignable to five phases. The building material consists of kankar stone, mud brick and kiln-burnt brick. One of the well-built houses has foundations of kankar stone and superstructure of mud brick. The kiln burnt bricks measure 20x 10×40 cm.
A single Harappa seal found in RPR-1 in I C levels is made of steatite and bears three familiar symbols on the obverse and two concentric circles on the reverse. It is thin and small without any holding device. Another burnt clay lump with a hole to pass a string through bears impressions of three typical seals with bull motif and legend in the familiar script. Graffiti on pottery include the Indus script.
A cemetery of the Harappa, recalling Cemetery R-37 of Harappa, lies to the w. of the n. mound. It has been considerably disturbed by later occupants, mainly by the users of the row, but some of the burials are sufficiently intact to give an adequate idea of the method of burial. The body is laid in a grave pit, measuring 2.45 x .91 m and 60 cm in depth. The head is placed usually on the n.-w. Most of the burials contain an assemblage of typical pots, and some of them also reveal personal ornaments, such as bangles of faience or shell, beads of faience and semiprecious stones and ring of copper. A faience bangle was intact on the left wrist of the wearer and a copper ring on the middle finger of the right hand. A single grave pit contained the skeleton of a dog at the bottom and that of a human being, presumably its master, above it. There is very little Bara pottery in the the graves and it is not known if the cemetery was common for both the Harappa and the Bara folks.
Among the animal bones of Period I are Chitra indica Gray, Gallus sp., Canis familiaris Linn. (the Domestic Dog), Rattus rattus Linn. (the common Indian Rat), Elephas maximus Linn. (the Indian Elephant), Bos indicus Linn. (the Zebu or Domesticated Humped Cattle of India), Bubalus bubalis Linn. (the Indian Domesticated Buffalo), Capra hircus aegagrus Em. (the Domestic Goat), Ovis aries dolichura Duerst (the Domestic Sheep) and Sus scrofa cristatus Wagner (the Domestic Pig).
Information on town layout and house-plans is lacking at Ropar, since the concerned levels were reached overan extremely limited area. The s. mound with its present habitation could not be probed, and one does not know if Ropar too did have twin settlements in the Harappa days as at Kalibangan, Rakhigarhi and Banavali. The excavators of Kalibangan date Kalibangan I to c. 2400-2250 B.C. on uncorrected 14C basis. With Kalibangan I pottery lying overlapped with the Harappa at the bottom layers of Ropar, c. 2100 B.C. could be thought of as the safest date for the beginning of Period I with an average thickness of over 2 m a span of 700 years, ending at c. 1400 B.C. appears reasonable. The evidence of Bhagawanpura where Bara and PGW cultures are found interlocked would also lend an indirect support to this date, for the Bara complex at Bhagawanpura appears to be only a devolution of the Sutlej complex.
Period II. After a long break the site was occupied by the users of the row, identified with the early Aryans by some and with the contemporaries of the later Vedic texts by others. Wheel-turned from well-levigated fine- grained clay, the PGW is sometimes self-slipped orcovered with grey wash, but often it seems to have no surface treatment. After it is painted with designs in black it is subjected to even and gradually reduced tem- perature. The sagger-based dish with incurved side and deep bowl with straight side are the most common shapes in the PGW. The painted designs comprise bands, grouped verticals, oblique and criss-cross lines, Z sigmas, svastikas, apirals, chains, rows of dots and dashes and concentric circles or semicircles. Apparently; the PGW was mainly used for purposes of dining. The discovery of a PGW water-pot (lotii) at Ropar completes ,the normal set of dining utensils, consisting of a plate or dish (thali) bowl (katori) and a water-pot (loti). The design is sometimes whitish-grey, which is obtained by blocking the design from the application of the slip. Other associated wares in these levels are plain grey ware, Black-slipped Ware and dusty-red ware. The former two cover the same shapes as the PGW, but the vessels of the dusty-red ware are largely used for cooking and storage, such as the frying pan, cooking pot (handi), large bowl basin, water pitchers and storage jar.
Period. III The introduction and disappearance of the NBPW define the span of Period III. Ropar was sufficiently removed from the Ganga plains of e. U.P. and Bihar, where the NBPW had its beginnings, yet over 450 sherds recovered from the limited excavated depths here proclaim its great popularity. It must have reached here obviously through pilgrinls and traders. That it was not locally manufactured and was a treasured piece of pottery is clear from the fact that broken NBPW vessels are often found joined with copper wire.Period III may be divided into Sub-Periods, m A and m B. In trench RPR-2, out of nearly 300 NBPW sherds 85% occur in III A and only 15% in m B, which, however, is richer in structural remains.
Period IV. The beginnings of Period IV are identified more easily by the terracotta art forms than by new fabrics and types in pottery, although these do exist. The long span of Period IV, from c. 200 B.C. to A.D. 700, is divided into four Sub-Periods corresponding roughly to the rule of the Sungas (IV A), Saka-Kushans (IV B), Guptas (IV C) and the post-Guptas (IV D). Nude yaksha figures with wearing rich ornaments and beautifully modelled figures of yakhas standing under trees are among the terracotta cult images of the the Sunga period. Plain red ware and some grey ware are typical of Period IV A. The pear-shaped vase with rim section approximating to a vertical lozenge and pitcher with fluted neck and out-rurned rim are among the popular ceramic types. Potter stamped with motifs like svastika, nandi-pada, tri-ratna, human figure, fish, conch, etc., appears but becomes more prolific in the succeeding Sub-Period. Coinage now comes fully onto its own. A coin of the Indo-Bactrian Antialcidas, another of the nameless, possibly Indo-Parthian,ruler with the title of Soter Megas and a clay mould made from a coin of Apollodotus II bespeak at least contact with the dominions of the Indo-Bactrians and Indo-Parthians. Contemporary tribal coinage is represented by the coins of the Kudindas and Audumbaras, the latter in a fair frequency, suggesting that Ropar may have been a centre of the Audumbara authority.
The remains of Periods V and VI have been probed on a limited scale by sinking a trench in the courtyard of a house in the town. The excavation laid bare several houses of kiln-burnt brick one above the other bespeaking considerable prosperity. Among the pottery types of Period V are the jar with mace-headed or internally beaked rim and ribbed neck; carinated cooking pot (handi) with out-turned rim; bowl-cum-lid with internal carination; and handled incense-burner. Glazed polychrome ware is found in top fillings. Walls of lakhauri bricks,dated to the Mughal times, peep out of the exposed sections of the s.mound. A kiln of the lakhauri bricks is located at then.w. corner of the n. mound. A coin from the top fillings belongs to Mubarak-Shah, Sultan of Delhi (died 1434), while another coin from the surface belongs to Ibrahim Lodhi (1517-26).