Climate Change Science: Key Points
Released: 2013-09-10T00:00:00

Broad Scientific Agreement on Many Aspects of Climate Change1

Despite portrayals in popular media about controversies in climate change science, almost all climate scientists agree on certain important points:

The Earth's climate has warmed significantly and changed in other ways over the past century ( Figure 1 ). The warming has been widespread but not uniform globally, with most warming over continents at high latitudes, and slight cooling in a few regions, including the southeastern United States, the Amazon, and the North Atlantic south of Greenland.

The climate has varied naturally through geologic history. Past climate changes sometimes proceeded abruptly when they passed certain "tipping points." The National Academy of Sciences concluded that the past few decades were very likely the warmest in the past 400 years, and "that temperatures at many, but not all, individual locations were higher during the past 25 years than during any period of comparable length since A.D. 900." Although conclusions cannot yet be precise, research suggests that global average temperatures today are among the highest since human civilizations began to flourish roughly 4,000 to 8,000 years ago. "Greenhouse gases" (GHG) include, among others, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), water vapor, methane (CH 4 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O), as well as some aerosols. They absorb energy into the atmosphere rather than letting it escape to space. The presence of GHG in the atmosphere warms the Earth to its current temperature. Human activities, especially fossil fuel burning, deforestation, agriculture, and some types of industry, have increased GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. CO 2 , the main GHG emitted by human activities, has risen almost 40% over the past 150 years. About one-third of human-related CO 2 has been absorbed by oceans, increasing surface water acidity by 30%. The enhanced levels of GHG in the atmosphere contributed to the observed global average warming in recent decades. Over other time and geographic scales, such factors as the Earth's orbit, solar variability, volcanoes, and land cover change have been stronger influences than human-related GHG. There is a wide range of projections of future human-induced climate change, with all pointing toward warming. Human-induced change will be superimposed on, and interact with, natural climate variability. Human societies and ecosystems are sensitive to climate. Some climate changes benefited civilizations; others contributed to some societies' demises. The range of possible impacts on humans and ecosystems is also very wide. In the near term, climate change (including the fertilization of vegetation by CO 2 ) may bring benefits for some, while adversely affecting others. Researchers expect the balance of projected climate change impacts to be increasingly adverse for a widening scope of populations and ecosystems.

As is common and constructive in science, scientists debate finer points. Some disagree with the broader consensus that GHG have been the major influence on global warming over the past few decades. Some suggest that, if GHG emissions continue unabated, the resulting climate change would be small and possibly beneficial overall. Most climate modelers project changes that are significant to large, with small likelihoods of changes that could be catastrophic for some human societies and ecosystems in coming decades.

Dealing with Uncertainties

Even the best science cannot provide absolute proof; it is fundamental to the scientific method that all theories are to some degree provisional and may be rejected or modified based on new evidence. Private and public decisions to act or not to act, to reduce the human contribution to climate change or to prepare for future changes, will be made in the context of accumulating evidence (or lack of evidence), accumulating GHG concentrations, ongoing debate about risks, and other considerations (e.g., economics and distributional effects).

That said, billions of dollars have been invested in research on a wide range of climate change topics, including the possibility of attribution to alternative causes than greenhouse gases. To date, scientists have found little support for the hypothesis that GHG are not responsible for observed warming, nor have they found much evidence that other factors (including solar changes) can explain more than a small portion of global average temperature increases since the 1970s. For example, measurements of solar irradiance suggest that the solar influence on global temperatures has been decreasing overall since the 1930s, with the up-and-down pattern of the 11-year solar cycle evident in observations. A large body of research is consistent with attributing the majority of global temperature increase since the 1970s to the increase in GHG concentrations. It is this balance of evidence that leads most scientists to consider human-related GHG emissions an important global risk.

Issues for Congress

It appears unlikely that science will provide decision-makers with significantly more scientific certainty for many years regarding the precise patterns and risks of climate change. Nonetheless, both private and public decision-makers face climate-related choices.

Broadly, response options to significant climate change include (1) defer the choices; (2) find out more; (3) inform affected populations; (4) prepare; (5) try to contain it; and (6) choose to experience the consequences. In many cases, many decision-makers are likely to face situations that require a response, such as resolving discrepancies between designated and actual flood plains or attempting to improve agricultural productivity in light of contemporary climate patterns.

Based on what is and what is not well known concerning climate change, as well as other considerations, Members of Congress may address climate-related decisions that affect

authorizations and appropriations for federal programs, including research and technology development; tax and financial incentives for private decision-makers; regulatory authorities; or information or assistance to affected entities to help them adapt or rebuild after damages.

A variety of other CRS reports provide background and analysis on such options and are listed at the end of this report.

Causes of Observed Climate Change: Forcings, Feedbacks, and Internal Variability

Three concepts may be useful for understanding the mechanisms and debate over the contributions to observed climate change: forcings, feedbacks , and internal variability .

Forcings

There is broad agreement among scientists that certain factors—including the composition of the atmosphere and solar variability—directly change the balance between incoming and outgoing radiation in the Earth's system and consequently force climate change. F orcings include the following:

Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gas (GHG) and other trace gas and aerosol . These include water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), sulfur hexaflouride (SF 6 ), chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), perfluorocarbons (PFC), ozone, sulfur aerosols, black and organic carbon aerosols, and others. Human activities, especially fossil fuel burning, deforestation, agriculture, and some types of industry, have increased GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. CO 2 has risen almost 40% over the past 150 years. Amount and patterns of solar radiation reaching the Earth due to the Earth's orbit around the Sun, and the tilt and wobble of the Earth's axis, as well as solar variability ( Figure 2 ). Reflectivity of the Earth's surface due to changes in land use (e.g., urban surfaces, forest cover), changes in ice and snow cover; and vegetation cover.

Human-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions

A majority of human-related GHG emissions are carbon dioxide, released primarily from energy production and use, deforestation and forest degradation, and cement manufacture. World-wide in 2010, carbon dioxide emissions were 74% of human-related GHG emissions. In the United States, carbon dioxide was 83% of human-related GHG emissions ( Figure 3 ). Methane and nitrous oxide emissions are greater shares (16% and 8%, respectively) globally than in the United States (10% and 5%, respectively). Agriculture is a main source of these emissions and is a bigger share of the economies of many low-income countries compared with the United States. Also, many sources in the United States have acted to reduce their GHG emissions (such as in reducing leaks of methane), compared with sources in some low-income countries.

A large majority (73%) of global GHG are emitted by the 10 top emitting countries Figure 4 ). China became the leading GHG emitter in 2007 when it surpassed the United States. While China's emissions have been on the rise, the United States has emitted more cumulatively than any other country over the past 100 years.

Feedbacks

Once a change in the Earth's climate system is underway, responses within the system will amplify or dampen the initiated change. Virtually all climate scientists conclude that all the feedbacks in net are likely to be positive (i.e., increasing climate change in the same direction caused by warming), especially if temperature increases are large; there remain wide differences in views. An important consideration is that, once positive feedbacks begin, they may be essentially irreversible and, at least theoretically, lead to "runaway warming." A few of the major feedbacks are clouds, vegetation, snow and ice cover, and uptake or releases of GHG by soils and water bodies. Forests, for example, provide both negative and positive feedbacks. On the one hand, higher CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere tend to fertilize their growth (if other conditions are not limiting) and forests may grow more rapidly with greater warmth and precipitation; these factors could dampen initiated warming. On the other hand, forests thrive within certain bounds of growing conditions; if their climate conditions change beyond those bounds, they are likely to grow more slowly and eventually die back, releasing the carbon they and forest soils store and enhancing the initiated climate change.

Internal Variability

The climate exhibits its own rhythms, or internal variability . The oscillation between El Niño and La Niña events is an example of internal climate variability that has important effects on economies and ecosystems in the Pacific basin (including across the United States). Another is the North Atlantic Oscillation. Internal variability may be difficult to distinguish from decadal-scale climate change. Such patterns of variability also may be influenced by climate change.

Projections of Future Human-Induced Climate Change

Most climate science experts project that if GHG emissions are not reduced far below current levels, the Earth's climate would warm further, above natural variations, to levels never experienced by human civilizations. If, and as, the climate moves further from its present state, it would reconfigure the patterns and events to which current human and ecological systems are adapted, and the risk of abrupt changes would dramatically increase.

Scenarios of future GHG concentrations under current policies range from 500 ppm carbon dioxide equivalents (CO 2 e) to over 1,000 ppm CO 2 e by 2100. These are projected to raise the global average temperature by at least 1.5 o Celsius (2.7 o Fahrenheit) above 1990 levels, not taking into account natural variability. The estimates considered most likely by many scientists are for GHG-induced temperature increases around 2.5 to 3.2 o C (4.5 to 5.8 o F) by 2100. There is a small but not trivial likelihood that the GHG-induced temperature rise may exceed 6.4 o C (11.5 o F) above natural variability by 2100.

As context, the global average temperature at the Last Glacial Maximum has been estimated to be about 3 to 5 o C (5.4 to 9 o F) cooler than present, and is estimated currently to be approaching the highest level experienced since the emergence of human civilizations about 8,000 years ago.

Future climate change may advance relatively smoothly or sporadically, and some regions are likely to experience more fluctuations in temperature, precipitation, and frequency or intensity of extreme events than others. Almost all regions are expected to experience warming; some are projected to become warmer and wetter, while others would become warmer and drier. Sea levels could rise due to ocean warming alone on average between 7 and 23 inches by 2100. Adding to that estimate would be the effects of poorly understood but possible accelerated melting of the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets. Recent scientific studies have projected a total global average sea level to rise in the 21 st century, depending on GHG scenarios, ice dynamics, and other factors, in the range of 2 to 2.5 feet, with a few estimates ranging up to 6.5 feet. Continued warming could lead to additional sea level rise over subsequent centuries of several to many meters. Improving understanding of ice dynamics is a high priority for scientific research to improve sea level rise projections.

Patterns consistent among different climate change models have led to some common expectations: GHG-induced climate change would include more heat waves and fewer extreme cold episodes; more precipitation on average but more droughts in some regions; and generally increased summer warming and dryness in the central portions of continents. Regional changes may vary from the global average changes, however. Scientists also expect precipitation to become more intense when it occurs, thereby increasing runoff and flooding risks.

Precipitation is a particularly challenging component of projecting future climate. For example, for the contiguous United States, recent climate modeling consistently anticipates overall temperature increases, but different models produce a wide range of precipitation changes, from net decreases to net increases. This is particularly problematic in that precipitation, and its characteristics, is closely associated with impacts on agriculture, water supply, streamflows, and other critical systems.

Scientific expectations and model projections consistently point to a global average increase in precipitation with strong variations across regions and time. Generally, dry areas are expected to get dryer, and wet regions are expected to get wetter. In many regions, the increase in evapotranspiration is expected to exceed the increase in precipitation, resulting in general drying of soils and increasing risks of droughts. Precipitation, when it occurs, is expected to be more intense. There will be more energy available for storms, including hurricanes and thunderstorms, though whether they may increase in frequency remains unclear.

Sea ice cover in the Arctic is projected to continue its recent decline ( Figure 5 ). Greenland is expected to continue ice loss, adding to sea level rise, with more uncertainty about what may happen to ice cover in Antarctica ( Figure 5 ). Because Arctic sea ice already floats on water, its melting would not increase sea levels, but large scale melting of land-based ice in Greenland and Antarctica could increase average sea levels by as many as 2 meters by 2100 and several more meters over coming centuries.

Impacts of Climate Change

Nearly every human and natural system could be affected by climate changes, directly or indirectly. The U.S. Global Change Research Program has produced several assessments of scientific understanding of impacts of climate change on the United States.

Whether climate changes are meaningful in a policy context arguably depends, on the one hand, on how they influence existing and emerging human systems, and on the other hand, the values people attach to different resources and risks. Past climate changes, often regional not global, contributed to major societal changes, including some large-scale migrations and even the demise of some civilizations. Some climate changes likely stimulated technological advances, such as development of irrigation systems.

Many investments in current buildings, transportation, water systems, agricultural hybrid varieties, and other infrastructure were designed in the context of a climate of one or more decades ago, cooler on average than today. To the degree that climate patterns were factored into design, the investments typically presumed that climate would remain stable within historical bounds of variability. For example, levees may have been built to withstand a 100-year flood (1% chance to occur each year) according to historic runoff, streamflow, and storm surge conditions going back many decades. As climate changes produce greater, more intense precipitation and run-off, however, a 100-year flood may now be closer to the 50-year flood (2% chance flood), and potentially the 10-year flood within decades (10% change flood). If climate continues to change from the conditions for which infrastructure and practices were designed, the risks of losses due to maladaptation would increase.

A wide band of uncertainty surrounds projections of impacts of climate change and, in particular, the critical thresholds for non-linear or abrupt effects. Some impacts of climate change are expected to be beneficial in some locations with a few degrees of warming (e.g., increased agricultural productivity in some regions, less need for space heating, less cold weather mortality, opening of the Northwest Passage for shipping and resource exploitation). Most impacts are expected to be adverse (e.g., lower agricultural productivity in many regions, drought, rising sea levels, spread of disease vectors, greater needs for cooling). Many impacts may be substantial but hard to assess as yet as "positive" or "negative," such as possible impacts on the structure of global financial markets. Risks of abrupt, surprising climate changes with accompanying dislocations are expected to increase as global average temperature increases; some could push natural and socioeconomic systems past key thresholds of tolerance.

Risks of future climate change would be reduced by efforts that reduce vulnerability and build resilience ("adaptation"). Some populations will have the resources to migrate and adapt successfully—even profit from new opportunities that will emerge—while others could lose livelihoods or lives. Adaptations can help mitigate impacts and damage costs, but also impose costs, often on those who can least afford them. Climate change will occur with different magnitudes and characteristics in different regions. The difficulties involved in improving predictions at regional and local scales will challenge preparations for climate change. To a large degree, climate change will expand the uncertainties that individuals and organizations face.

Climate change could have a wide array of effects on individuals, communities, and populations on a large scale. Many of these are expected to occur in small increments: shortages and increasing prices for clean water, rising food prices, higher rates of allergies and such illnesses as diarrhea or cholera, erosion of beaches, etc. At an increasing rate may be shocks, or distinct weather events, such as more extreme heat waves, severe droughts, or loss of industrial cooling systems when intake water is in short supply or is warmer than tolerable temperatures.

Extreme events, chronic economic losses, or improved opportunities elsewhere are expected to prompt migration of millions of people, largely within countries, but also across national borders. Extreme events, greater variability, and uncertainty are expected to increase stress and mental health challenges. Some experts project that climate changes could amplify instabilities in countries with weak governance and increase security risks. This may have implications for international political stability and security.

For some experts and stakeholders, likely ecological disruptions (and limitations on species' and habitats' abilities to adapt at the projected rate of climate change) are among the most compelling reasons that humans must act to reduce their interference with the climate system. Some believe humans will have the wherewithal to cope, but non-human systems may not. As the degree and distribution of climate changes continue, ranges of species are likely to change. Climate change is highly likely to create substantial changes in ecological systems and services in some locations, and may lead to ecological surprises. The disappearance of some types of regional ecosystems raises risks of extinctions of species, especially those with narrow geographic or climatic distributions, and where existing ecological communities disintegrate. One set of researchers found "a close correspondence between regions with globally disappearing climates and previously identified biodiversity hotspots; for these regions, standard conservation solutions (e.g., assisted migration and networked reserves) may be insufficient to preserve biodiversity."

Selected, Related CRS Reports

CRS Report R43185, Ocean Acidification , by [author name scrubbed] and [author name scrubbed].

CRS Report R41153, Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress , coordinated by [author name scrubbed].

CRS Report RL34580, Drought in the United States: Causes and Issues for Congress , by [author name scrubbed], [author name scrubbed], and [author name scrubbed].

CRS Report R43199, Energy-Water Nexus: The Energy Sector's Water Use , by [author name scrubbed].

CRS Report R42611, Oil Sands and the Keystone XL Pipeline: Background and Selected Environmental Issues , coordinated by [author name scrubbed].

CRS Report R42756, Energy Policy: 113 th Congress Issues , by [author name scrubbed].

CRS Report R42613, Climate Change and Existing Law: A Survey of Legal Issues Past, Present, and Future , by [author name scrubbed].

CRS Report R43120, President Obama's Climate Action Plan , coordinated by [author name scrubbed].

CRS Report R42756, Energy Policy: 113 th Congress Issues , by [author name scrubbed].

CRS Report RL34266, Climate Change: Science Highlights , by [author name scrubbed].

CRS Report R41973, Climate Change: Conceptual Approaches and Policy Tools , by [author name scrubbed].