Puerto Rico: Factors Contributing to the Debt Crisis and Potential Federal Actions to Address Them
Released: 2018-05-09T00:00:00

Letter

Background

Application of Federal Laws in Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico, which has approximately 3.3 million residents according to U.S. Census Bureau (Census) estimates, is the largest and most populous territory of the United States. As a territory, Puerto Rico is subject to congressional authority, though Congress has granted it broad authority over matters of internal governance—notably, by approving Puerto Rico’s constitution in 1952. Individuals born in Puerto Rico are U.S. citizens and can migrate freely to the states.

Puerto Rico and its residents are generally subject to the same federal laws as the states and their residents, except in cases where specific exemptions have been made, such as with certain federal programs. For example, Puerto Rico residents generally have full access to Social Security and unemployment insurance; however, for some programs, such as Medicaid, federal funding in Puerto Rico is restricted as compared to funding in the states.

Residents of Puerto Rico are exempt from paying federal income tax on income from sources in Puerto Rico. Residents are required to pay federal income tax on income from sources outside of Puerto Rico. They are also required to pay federal employment taxes, such as Social Security and Medicare taxes, on their income regardless of where it was earned. Puerto Rico residents are also ineligible for certain federal tax credits.

Corporations located in Puerto Rico are generally subject to the same federal tax laws as corporations located in a foreign country. Corporations in Puerto Rico are generally exempt from federal taxes on profits except as such profits are effectively connected to a trade or business in the states, and so long as those profits remain held outside of the states. Additionally, these corporations were subject to a withholding tax on certain investment income from the United States not connected to a trade or business. Under the 2017 Public Law 115-97, starting in 2018 U.S. corporations that are shareholders in foreign corporations, such as those organized under Puerto Rico law, generally do not owe tax on dividends received from those foreign corporations. Prior to this law, dividend payments to U.S. corporate shareholders were considered taxable interest for the U.S. parent corporation.

Prior to 1996, a federal corporate income tax credit—the possessions tax credit—was available to certain U.S. corporations that located in Puerto Rico. In general, the credit equaled the full amount of federal tax liability related to an eligible corporation’s income from its operations in a possession—including Puerto Rico—effectively making such income tax- free. In 1996, the tax credit was repealed, although corporations that were existing credit claimants were eligible to claim credits through 2005.

Puerto Rico’s Economy and Labor Force

Puerto Rico’s economy is in a prolonged period of economic contraction. According to data from Puerto Rico’s government, Puerto Rico’s economy grew in the 1990s and early 2000s. However, between 2005 and 2016— the latest year for which data were available as of March 1, 2018—Puerto Rico’s economy experienced year-over-year declines in real output in all but two years, as measured by real gross domestic product (GDP). From 2005 to 2016, Puerto Rico’s real GDP fell by more than 9 percent (from $82.8 billion to $75.0 billion in 2005 dollars). Puerto Rico’s gross national product (GNP) followed a similar pattern over the same period, declining by more than 11 percent from 2005 to 2016 (from $53.8 billion to $47.7 billion in 2005 dollars). Figure 1 shows Puerto Rico’s real GDP and GNP growth rates from 1991 through 2016.

The decline in Puerto Rico’s output has, in more recent years, occurred in conjunction with a decline in Puerto Rico’s population. According to Census estimates, Puerto Rico’s population declined from a high of approximately 3.8 million people in 2004 to 3.3 million people in 2017, a decline of 12.8 percent. This population loss closely matched the decline in real output. From 2004 to 2016, Puerto Rico’s real GNP fell by 9.5 percent, while its real GNP per capita increased by 1.6 percent over the same time period.

In addition to Puerto Rico’s declining population, the territory also has a lower share of employed persons compared to the United States as a whole. As of 2017, approximately 37 percent of Puerto Rico residents were employed compared to approximately 60 percent for the United States as a whole. Puerto Rico’s employment-to-population ratio reached highs in 2005 and 2006 when it was approximately 43 percent, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), between 2005 and 2017, Puerto Rico’s unemployment rate fluctuated between 10.2 percent and 17.0 percent, with an average of 13.1 percent. During the same period, the nationwide unemployment rate fluctuated between 4.1 percent and 10.0 percent, with an average of 6.5 percent. These factors have combined to leave Puerto Rico with a small and declining labor force. From January 2006 to December 2017—the latest month for which data were available as of March 1, 2018—Puerto Rico’s labor force decreased from approximately 1.4 million persons to 1.1 million persons, according to data from BLS.

Puerto Rico Government Financial Condition

Puerto Rico’s government has operated with a deficit—where expenses exceed revenues—in each fiscal year since 2002, and its deficits grew over time (see figure 2).

Puerto Rico’s governmental activities can be divided among the primary government and component units. Puerto Rico’s primary government provides and funds services such as public safety, education, health care, and economic development. Puerto Rico’s component units are legally separate entities for which its government is nonetheless financially accountable, and provide services such as public transportation, highways, electricity, and water.

In fiscal year 2014, the latest for which audited financial data are available, the Puerto Rico government collected $32.5 billion in revenue, of which $19.3 billion was collected by the primary government, and $13.2 billion was collected by the component units. That year Puerto Rico’s government spent $38.7 billion, of which $22.0 billion was spent directly by the primary government, while $16.7 billion was spent by the government’s various component units. The Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA), which operates the territory’s electricity generation and distribution infrastructure, represented the largest component unit expenditure in fiscal year 2014. Figures 3 and 4 show a breakdown of expenses for Puerto Rico’s primary government and its component units, respectively.

Puerto Rico’s government spending accounts for more than a third of the territory’s GDP. In fiscal year 2014—the latest year for which audited spending data were available as of March 1, 2018—primary government expenditures of $22.0 billion represented 21 percent of the territory’s GDP. Including component spending, total public expenditures were $38.7 billion, which represented 38 percent of the territory’s GDP. By comparison, our prior work has shown that in 2014, total state and local government expenditures represented about 14 percent of GDP for the United States as a whole, excluding territories. Federal government expenditures were 20 percent of GDP for the United States as a whole in 2014.

Puerto Rico Debt

Puerto Rico’s total public debt as a share of its economy has grown over time. In 2002, the value of its debt was 42 percent of the territory’s GDP, and 67 percent of its GNP. Both of these ratios grew over time such that by 2014, Puerto Rico’s total public debt was 66 percent of the territory’s GDP and 99 percent of its GNP. Figure 5 compares Puerto Rico’s total public debt to its GDP and GNP, in both aggregate and per capita.

As of the end of fiscal year 2014, the last year for which Puerto Rico issued audited financial statements, Puerto Rico had $67.8 billion in net public debt outstanding, or $68.1 billion excluding accounting adjustments that are not attributed in the financial statements to specific agencies. Of the $68.1 billion, $40.6 billion was owed by Puerto Rico’s primary government, and $27.6 billion was owed by its component units, as shown in figure 6 (these amounts do not sum to $68.1 billion because of rounding).

The growth of Puerto Rico’s total debt resulted in greater annual debt servicing obligations. In fiscal year 2002, it cost Puerto Rico $2.7 billion to service its debt, representing about 12 percent of Puerto Rico’s $21.6 billion in total public revenue for that year. By fiscal year 2014, Puerto Rico’s annual debt service cost rose to $5.0 billion, representing just over 15 percent of Puerto Rico’s $32.5 billion in total public revenue for that year. Following years of expenditures that exceeded revenue, and a growing debt burden, in August 2015, Puerto Rico failed to make a scheduled bond payment. Since then, Puerto Rico has defaulted on over $1.5 billion in debt.

In June 2016, Congress enacted and the President signed PROMESA in response to Puerto Rico’s fiscal crisis. PROMESA established a Financial Oversight and Management Board for Puerto Rico (Oversight Board), and granted it broad powers of fiscal and budgetary control over Puerto Rico. PROMESA also established a mechanism through which the Oversight Board could petition U.S. courts on Puerto Rico’s behalf to restructure debt. Under federal bankruptcy laws, Puerto Rico is otherwise prohibited from authorizing its municipalities and instrumentalities from petitioning U.S. courts to restructure debt. The Oversight Board petitioned the U.S. courts to restructure debt on behalf of Puerto Rico’s Highways and Transportation Authority and the Government Employees Retirement System on May 21, 2017 and on behalf of PREPA on July 2, 2017.

Pension Obligations

In addition to its debt obligations, Puerto Rico also faces a large financial burden from its pension obligations for public employees. Puerto Rico’s public pension systems had unfunded liabilities of approximately $49 billion as of the end of fiscal year 2015, the most recent year for which data are available. Unfunded pension liabilities are similar to other kinds of debt because they constitute a promise to make a future payment or provide a benefit.

Officials and Experts Cited Various Factors as Contributing to Puerto Rico’s Financial Condition and Levels of Debt Factors that Contributed to Puerto Rico’s Persistent Deficits

Based on interviews with current and former Puerto Rico officials, federal officials, and other relevant experts, as well as a review of relevant literature, the factors that contributed to Puerto Rico’s financial condition and levels of debt related to: (1) Puerto Rico’s government running persistent deficits and (2) its use of debt to cope with deficits.

As previously mentioned, Puerto Rico’s government has operated with a deficit in all years since 2002, and deficits grew over time. To cope with its deficits, Puerto Rico’s government issued debt to finance operations, rather than reduce its fiscal gap by cutting spending, raising taxes, or both. Through interviews with current and former Puerto Rico officials; federal officials; experts in Puerto Rico’s economy, the municipal securities markets, and state and local budgeting and debt management; as well as a review of relevant literature, we identified three groups of factors that contributed to Puerto Rico’s persistent deficits: (1) inadequate financial management and oversight practices, (2) policy decisions, and (3) prolonged economic contraction. Some of the factors in these groups may be interrelated.

Factors that Enabled Puerto Rico to Use Debt to Finance Operations

To cope with its persistent deficits, Puerto Rico issued debt to finance operations. In reviewing 20 of Puerto Rico’s largest bond issuances from 2000 to 2017, totaling around $31 billion, we found that 16 were issued exclusively to repay or refinance existing debt and to fund operations. According to ratings agency officials and experts in state and local government, states rarely issue debt to fund operations, and many states prohibit this practice. According to former Puerto Rico officials and experts on Puerto Rico’s economy, high demand for Puerto Rico debt and the Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico (GDB) facilitating rising debt levels enabled Puerto Rico to continue to use debt to finance operations.

High Demand for Puerto Rico Debt

Puerto Rico issued a relatively large amount of debt, given the size of its population. Based on an analysis of fiscal year 2014 comprehensive annual financial reports of the 50 states and Puerto Rico, Puerto Rico had the second highest amount of outstanding debt among states and territories, while its population falls between the 29th and 30th most populous states. By comparison, California, the state with the largest amount of outstanding debt, is the most populated state. Various factors drove demand for Puerto Rico municipal bonds, even as the government’s financial condition deteriorated.

Triple tax exemption: According to a former Puerto Rico official, Federal Reserve Bank of New York officials, and an expert on Puerto Rico’s economy, Puerto Rico’s municipal bonds were attractive to investors because interest on the bonds was not subjected to federal, state, or local taxes, regardless of where the investors resided. In contrast, investors may be required to pay state or local taxes on interest income earned from municipal securities issued by a state or municipality in which they do not reside.

Investment grade bond ratings: Puerto Rico maintained investment grade bond ratings until February 2014, even as its financial condition was deteriorating. Credit ratings inform investment decisions by both institutional investors and broker dealers. According to a current Puerto Rico official and an expert on Puerto Rico’s economy, investment grade ratings for Puerto Rico municipal bonds may have driven demand for these securities in the states. Based on interviews with ratings agency officials and a review of rating agency criteria, we found that Puerto Rico may have maintained its investment grade rating for two reasons. First, Puerto Rico could not seek debt restructuring under federal bankruptcy laws, prior to the passage of PROMESA in 2016. According to rating agency officials, bonds with assumed bankruptcy protection tend to rate higher than those without such protection. Second, legal frameworks that prioritize debt service are often viewed as positive for credit ratings, according to rating agency criteria. In the event that the Puerto Rico government does not have sufficient resources to meet appropriations for a given fiscal year, Puerto Rico’s constitution requires that the government pay interest and amortization on the public debt before disbursing funds for other purposes in accordance with the order of priorities established by law. The prior Puerto Rico Governor cited this constitutional provision as providing the authority to redirect revenue streams from certain entities to the payment of general obligation debt. This redirection of revenue streams is commonly known as a clawback.

Lack of transparency on its financial condition: Municipal market analysts told us that untimely financial information made it difficult for institutional and individual investors to assess Puerto Rico’s financial condition, which may have resulted in investors not being able to fully take the investment risks into account when purchasing Puerto Rico debt. According to one report, between 2010 and 2016 municipal issuers issued their audited financial statements an average of 200 days after the end of their fiscal years. However, between fiscal years 2002 and 2014, Puerto Rico issued its statements an average of 386 days after the end of its fiscal year, according to our analysis of Puerto Rico’s audited financial statements. Moreover, Puerto Rico had not issued its fiscal years 2015 and 2016 audited financial statements as of March 1, 2018, or 975 and 609 days after the end of those fiscal years, respectively.

Estate tax structures: Puerto Rico residents had incentive to invest in municipal bonds issued in Puerto Rico over those issued in the United States because of federal and Puerto Rico estate tax structures. Current and former Puerto Rico officials told us that this incentive drove demand among Puerto Rico residents for bonds issued in Puerto Rico. For federal estate tax purposes, Puerto Rico residents are generally considered non-U.S. residents and non-citizens for all of their U.S.-based property, including investments. Estates of Puerto Rico residents are required to pay the prevailing federal estate tax— which ranges from 18 percent to 40 percent depending on the size of an estate—for any U.S.-based property valued over $60,000. In contrast, prior to 2017, all Puerto Rico-based property was only subject to the Puerto Rico estate tax of 10 percent. Puerto Rico’s estate tax was repealed in 2017.

Puerto Rico’s Government Development Bank Facilitated Rising Debt Levels

In addition to financing from the municipal bond markets, GDB also provided an intragovernmental source of financing. Prior to April 2016, GDB acted as a fiscal agent, trustee of funds, and intergovernmental lender for the Government of Puerto Rico. GDB issued loans to Puerto Rico’s government agencies and public corporations to support their operations. GDB provided loans to government entities valued at up to 60 percent of GDB’s total assets, as shown in Figure 11. In general, these entities did not fulfill the terms of their borrowing agreements with GDB, while they independently accessed the municipal bond market. Additionally, according to GDB’s audited financial statements, GDB did not reflect loan losses in its audited financial statements until 2014 because it presumed that Puerto Rico’s legislature would repay loans through the general fund or appropriations, as generally required by the acts that approved such loans.

Facing non-repayment of public sector loans, GDB took on debt to maintain liquidity. According to GDB documents, repayment of amounts owed to GDB was a main reason for the creation of the Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation (COFINA), an entity backed by a new sales tax, through which Puerto Rico issued some of its debt. Though initially intended as a means to repay GDB and other debt, COFINA bonds were also used to finance operations.

Actions That Could Address Factors that Contributed to Puerto Rico’s Unsustainable Debt Levels

Through our interviews and an assessment of relevant literature, we identified three potential federal actions that could help address some of the factors that contributed to unsustainable indebtedness in Puerto Rico. Consistent with the provision in PROMESA that was the statutory requirement for this work, we focused on actions that were non-fiscal in nature—that is, actions that would not increase the federal deficit. There are tradeoffs for policymakers to consider when deciding whether or how to implement any policy. For each action, we describe a specific challenge as it relates to debt accumulation in Puerto Rico, identify a possible federal response to the challenge, and describe other considerations for policymakers.

Action 1: Modify SEC’s Authority over Municipal Securities Disclosure Requirements

To help address the factors that contributed to the high demand for Puerto Rico debt relative to other municipal debt, legislative and executive branch policymakers could further ensure that municipal securities issuers provide timely, ongoing, and complete disclosure materials to bondholders and the public. Specifically, Congress could authorize SEC to establish requirements for municipal issuers on the timing, frequency, and content of initial and continuing disclosure materials.

Challenge

In general, the municipal securities market is less regulated and transparent than other capital markets, such as equity markets. For example, SEC’s authority to directly establish or enforce initial and continuing disclosure requirements for issuers—including those in Puerto Rico—is limited. SEC requires that underwriters (sellers of municipal securities) reasonably determine that issuers have undertaken continuing disclosure agreements (CDA) to publicly disclose ongoing annual financial information, operating data, and notices of material events. However, federal securities laws do not provide SEC with the authority to impose penalties on municipal issuers for noncompliance with CDAs, which may limit any incentive for issuers to comply with SEC disclosure and reporting guidance. As a result, SEC has limited ability to compel issuers to provide continuing disclosure information.

As previously discussed, the Puerto Rico government often issued its audited financial statements in an untimely manner, thus failing to meet its contractual obligations to provide continuing disclosures for securities it issued. SEC could not directly impose any consequences on Puerto Rico’s government for failing to adhere to the terms of, or enforce compliance with, the CDAs. Additionally, as previously discussed, municipal market analysts told us that untimely financial information made it difficult for institutional and individual investors to assess Puerto Rico’s financial condition.

Addressing the Challenge

Timely disclosure of information would help investors make informed decisions about investing in municipal securities and help protect them against fraud involving the securities. These disclosures would be made to investors at the time of purchasing securities and throughout the term of the security, including when material changes to an issuer’s financial condition occur. According to SEC staff, enhanced authority could prompt more municipal issuers to disclose financial information, including audited financial statements, in a timelier manner. For example, SEC staff said that if the agency had required that issuers provide timely financial statements at the time of issuing a municipal security, this may have precluded Puerto Rico from issuing its $3.5 billion general obligation bond in 2014. However, any rulemaking SEC would or could take as a result of enhanced authority would depend on a number of factors, such as compliance with other SEC guidance and related laws.

Other Considerations

Since this action would apply to all U.S. municipal securities issuers, it has policy and implementation implications that extend well beyond Puerto Rico. For example, establishing and enforcing initial and continuing disclosure requirements for municipal securities issuers could place additional burdens on state and local issuers, and not all municipal issuers use standardized accounting and financial reporting methods. As a result, state and local governments may need to spend resources to adjust financial reporting systems to meet standardized reporting requirements. However, in a 2012 report proposing this action, SEC said it could mitigate this burden by considering content and frequency requirements that take into account, and possibly vary by, the size and nature of the municipal issuer, the frequency of issuance of securities, the type of municipal securities offered, and the amount of outstanding securities.

Action 2: Apply Federal Investor Protection Laws to Puerto Rico

To help address the factors that contributed to the high demand for Puerto Rico debt relative to other municipal debt, Congress could ensure that investors residing in Puerto Rico receive the same federal investor protections as investors residing in states. Specifically, Congress could subject all investment companies in Puerto Rico to the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (1940 Act). In recent years, the House and Senate separately have passed legislation that would achieve this action.

Challenge

Certain investment companies in Puerto Rico and other territories— specifically, those whose securities are sold solely to the residents of the territory in which they are located—are exempt from the 1940 Act’s requirements. The 1940 Act regulates investment companies, such as mutual funds that invest in securities of other issuers and issue their own securities to the investing public. It imposes several requirements on investment companies intended to protect investors. For example, it requires that investment companies register with SEC and disclose information to investors about the businesses and risks of the companies in which they invest, and the characteristics of the securities that they issue. It also restricts investment companies from engaging in certain types of transactions, such as purchasing municipal securities underwritten by affiliated companies.

According to a former Puerto Rico official, some broker-dealers in Puerto Rico underwrote Puerto Rico municipal securities issuances and investment companies managed by affiliated companies of these underwriters purchased the securities, packaged them into funds, and marketed the funds to investors residing in Puerto Rico. This practice would be prohibited or restricted for investment companies subject to the 1940 Act, as it might result in investment companies not acting in the best interests of their investors.

Addressing the Challenge

If all Puerto Rico investment companies had been subject to the 1940 Act, they would have been prohibited or restricted from investing in Puerto Rico municipal bonds underwritten by affiliated companies. Also, these investment companies may have further disclosed the risks involved in Puerto Rico municipal bonds to Puerto Rico investors. As a result, demand for Puerto Rico municipal bonds from Puerto Rico investment companies and residents may have been lower had the 1940 Act requirements applied to all Puerto Rico investment companies, and it may have been more difficult for the Puerto Rico government to issue debt to finance deficits.

Other Considerations

SEC staff told us that industry groups had raised objections to extending the 1940 Act provisions to all investment companies in Puerto Rico. These industry groups noted that, among other things, certain investment companies would have difficulty meeting the 1940 Act’s leverage and asset coverage requirements and adhering to some restrictions on affiliated transactions. However, SEC staff noted that under certain legislation that passed the House or Senate separately, as described above, Puerto Rico investment companies would have three years to come into compliance if they were newly subject to the 1940 Act. Further, under that legislation, after three years, investment companies in Puerto Rico could also request an additional three years to come into compliance. Regarding affiliated company restrictions, SEC has previously waived some requirements for investment companies if they are unable to obtain financing by selling securities to unaffiliated parties with an agreement to repurchase those securities at a higher price in the future, known as repurchase agreements. According to SEC staff, SEC would consider allowing companies in Puerto Rico to enter into reverse repurchase agreements with their affiliates if the 1940 Act applied to them.

Action 3: Modify the Tax Exemption Status for Puerto Rico Municipal Securities

To help address the factors that contributed to the high demand for Puerto Rico debt relative to other municipal debt, Congress could remove the triple tax exemption for Puerto Rico’s municipal securities. This action would mean that interest income from Puerto Rico municipal securities earned by investors residing outside of Puerto Rico could be taxed by states and local governments, while still being exempt from federal income taxes, similar to the current tax treatment of municipal bond income in the states.

Challenge

As mentioned previously, former Puerto Rico officials and experts in municipal securities told us that the triple tax exemption fueled investor demand and enabled Puerto Rico to continue issuing bonds despite deteriorating financial conditions. Some of the demand for Puerto Rico municipal securities came from certain U.S. municipal bond funds. These funds concentrated their investments in one state to sell to investors within that state, but also included Puerto Rico bonds in their portfolios. Puerto Rico bond yields generally were higher than state bonds yields, according to industry experts. When added to a fund, the higher yields from Puerto Rico bonds would increase the overall return on investment yield of a fund.

Addressing the Challenge

Modifying the triple tax exemption for Puerto Rico’s municipal securities might result in reduced demand for Puerto Rico’s debt. In response to reduced demand for its debt, Puerto Rico’s government may need to address any projected operating deficits by decreasing spending, raising revenues, or both.

Other Considerations

According to U.S. Treasury officials, this action could increase the proportionate share of investors in Puerto Rico debt that reside in Puerto Rico, because of reduced demand from investors in the states. In the event of a future debt crisis, this could result in a concentration of financial losses within Puerto Rico. Also, debt financing allows governments to make needed capital investments and provides liquidity to governments, and can be a more stable funding source to manage fiscal stress. Reduced market demand for Puerto Rico’s bonds could make access to debt financing difficult, as the Puerto Rico bond market may not support the Puerto Rico government’s future borrowing at reasonable interest rates, according to Treasury officials. Alternately, a variant of this action would be to retain the triple tax exemption for Puerto Rico debt only for bonds related to capital investments rather than for deficit financing, according to Treasury officials.

Other Federal Actions Taken to Address Puerto Rico’s Fiscal Condition

Various provisions in PROMESA were intended to help Puerto Rico improve its fiscal condition. PROMESA requires that the Oversight Board certify fiscal plans for achieving fiscal responsibility and access to capital markets. The intent of the fiscal plans is to eliminate Puerto Rico’s structural deficits; create independent revenue estimates for the budget process; and improve Puerto Rico’s fiscal governance, accountability, and controls, among other things. From March 2017 to April 2017, the Oversight Board certified the fiscal plans the Government of Puerto Rico developed for the primary government and certain component units, such as PREPA. As a result of the effects of Hurricanes Irma and Maria, the Oversight Board requested that the Government develop updated fiscal plans. Although the Government of Puerto Rico developed and submitted updated fiscal plans, the Oversight Board did not certify them, with the exception of the plan for GDB. Instead, in April 2018, the Oversight Board certified fiscal plans it developed itself, as PROMESA allows. PROMESA also requires the Oversight Board to determine whether or not Puerto Rico’s annual budgets, developed by the Governor, comply with the fiscal plans prior to being submitted to Puerto Rico’s legislature for approval.

Technical assistance is another area where the federal government has taken action to help Puerto Rico address its fiscal condition. In 2015, Congress first authorized Treasury to provide technical assistance to Puerto Rico, and has continued to reauthorize the technical assistance, most recently through September 30, 2018. For example, Treasury officials told us that they helped Puerto Rico’s Planning Board develop a more accurate macroeconomic forecast, which should enable Hacienda to develop more accurate revenue estimates and receipt forecasts. Treasury officials also told us that the agency began helping Puerto Rico improve its collection of delinquent taxes—for example, by helping Hacienda develop an office dealing with Puerto Rico’s largest and most sophisticated taxpayers, which are often multinational corporations. With Puerto Rico focused on hurricane recovery efforts, Treasury and the Puerto Rico government are reassessing the types of assistance that Treasury might provide in the future, according to Treasury officials.

Current and former Puerto Rico government officials and experts on Puerto Rico’s economy also told us that the federal government could further help Puerto Rico address its persistent deficits through federal policy changes that are fiscal in nature. For example, it could change select federal program funding rules—at a cost to the federal government—such as eliminating the cap on Medicaid funding and calculating the federal matching rate similar to how the rate is calculated in the states. Likewise, the Congressional Task Force on Economic Growth in Puerto Rico (Congressional Task Force), as established by PROMESA, issued a report in December 2016 that recommended changes to federal laws and programs that would spur sustainable long- term economic growth in Puerto Rico, among other recommendations.

Puerto Rico Plans to Take Actions to Address Its Fiscal Condition and Debt Levels

In addition to federal actions that could address the factors that contributed to Puerto Rico’s fiscal condition and debt levels, the Puerto Rico government plans to take various actions. For example, according to current Puerto Rico officials and the Puerto Rico government’s April 2018 fiscal plan, the government is:

Planning to implement an integrated new information technology system for financial management, to include modernized revenue management and accounting and payroll systems. Hacienda officials stated that they are in the process of developing a project schedule for this long-term effort.

Developing a new public healthcare model in which Puerto Rico’s government pays for basic services and patients pay for premium services. The government will begin implementing the new healthcare model in fiscal year 2019 and expects to achieve annual savings of $841 million by fiscal year 2023.

Collaborating with the private sector for future infrastructure and service projects, including for reconstruction efforts related to Hurricanes Irma and Maria, which it expects will stimulate Puerto Rico’s weakened economy.

We also asked Puerto Rico officials about progress made toward addressing many of the factors we identified. However, they did not provide us this information.

Agency Comments, Third Party Views, and Our Evaluation

We provided a draft of this report for review to Treasury, SEC, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Government of Puerto Rico, and the Oversight Board. Treasury and SEC provided technical comments, which we incorporated as appropriate. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Oversight Board had no comments.

We received written comments from the Government of Puerto Rico, which are reprinted in appendix II. In its comments, the Government of Puerto Rico generally agreed with the factors we identified that contributed to Puerto Rico’s financial condition and levels of debt. It also provided additional context on Puerto Rico’s accumulation of debt, such as Puerto Rico’s territorial status and its effect on federal programs in Puerto Rico and outmigration.

The Government of Puerto Rico also noted that the federal actions we identified to address factors contributing to Puerto Rico’s unsustainable debt levels did not include potential actions that were fiscal in nature or that addressed Puerto Rico’s long-term economic viability. As we note in the report, we excluded fiscal actions from our scope, consistent with the provision in PROMESA that was the statutory requirement for this work. We excluded potential actions that could promote economic growth in Puerto Rico because these actions would address debt levels in Puerto Rico only indirectly and because the Congressional Task Force on Economic Growth in Puerto Rico already recommended actions for fostering economic growth in Puerto Rico in its December 2016 report.

We are sending copies of the report to the appropriate congressional committees, the Government of Puerto Rico, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and other interested parties. In addition, this report is available at no charge on the GAO website at http://gao.gov.

If you or your staff have any questions about this report, please contact me at (202) 512-6806 or krauseh@gao.gov. Contact points for our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on the last page of this report. GAO staff who made key contributions to this report are listed in appendix III.

Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Our objectives were to describe (1) the factors that contributed to Puerto Rico’s financial condition and levels of debt; and (2) federal actions that could address the factors that contributed to Puerto Rico’s financial condition and levels of debt. Consistent with the provision in the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA) that was the statutory requirement for this work, we focused on actions that would not increase the federal deficit.

For both objectives we interviewed current Puerto Rico officials from several agencies—the Puerto Rico Department of Treasury (Hacienda in Spanish), Government Development Bank for Puerto Rico (GDB), the Puerto Rico Office of Management and Budget (Spanish acronym OGP), Fiscal Agency and Financial Advisory Authority (FAFAA), and the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority. We also interviewed 13 former Puerto Rico officials that held leadership positions at Hacienda, GDB, or OGP, or a combination thereof. These former officials served between 1997 and 2016 for various gubernatorial administrations associated with the two political parties in Puerto Rico that held the governorship during that period. We also interviewed officials from the U.S. Department of the Treasury (Treasury), the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the Financial Oversight and Management Board for Puerto Rico (created by PROMESA). Additionally, we conducted another 13 interviews with experts on Puerto Rico’s economy, the municipal securities markets, state and territorial budgeting and debt management—including credit rating agencies—and with select industry groups in Puerto Rico. We selected the experts we interviewed based on their professional knowledge closely aligning with our engagement objectives, as demonstrated through published articles, congressional testimonies, and referrals from agency officials or other experts.

To describe the factors that contributed to Puerto Rico’s financial condition and levels of debt, we reviewed our prior work related to Puerto Rico’s financial condition and levels of public debt. We also collected and analyzed additional financial data from Puerto Rico’s audited financial statements for the fiscal years 2002 to 2014, the last year for which audited financial statements were available. To determine how the Puerto Rico government used bond proceeds, we reviewed a nongeneralizable sample of Puerto Rico bonds prospectuses issued between 2000 and 2017 from the Electronic Municipal Market Access database of the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board.

We reviewed literature—including academic reports, congressional hearing transcripts, and credit rating agency reports—that described Puerto Rico’s economy and factors that contributed to Puerto Rico’s levels of debt. We also reviewed credit rating agency reports that described Puerto Rico’s municipal debt and the agencies’ methodologies for rating municipal debt. We also collected and reviewed Puerto Rico government documents related to budget formulation and execution, debt issuance, and financial management. We considered factors to include, but not be limited to, macroeconomic trends, federal policies, and actions taken by Puerto Rico government officials. Our review focused largely, though not exclusively, on conditions that contributed to the debt crisis during those years for which we collected financial data on Puerto Rico, fiscal years 2002 to 2014.

Finally, we also conducted a thematic analysis of the summaries of our interviews to identify common patterns and ideas. Although these results are not generalizable to all current and former officials and experts with this subject-matter expertise, and do not necessarily represent the views of all the individuals we interviewed, the thematic analysis provided greater insight and considerations for the factors we identified.

To describe federal actions that could address the factors that contributed to Puerto Rico’s financial condition and levels of debt, we reviewed our prior reports and documents from Treasury and SEC, conducted a literature review, and conducted various interviews. Specifically, we met with federal agencies with subject-matter expertise or whose scope of responsibilities related to these actions, as well as with current and former Puerto Rico officials and municipal securities experts. Consistent with PROMESA, we omitted from our scope: (1) actions that could increase the federal deficit (i.e., fiscal options), (2) actions that could be taken by the Puerto Rico government, (3) actions that could infringe upon Puerto Rico’s sovereignty and constitutional parameters, and (4) actions that would imperil America’s homeland and national security. We considered actions that could promote economic growth in Puerto Rico as outside of scope, as they could address debt levels in Puerto Rico indirectly, rather than directly, and because a study issued by the Congressional Task Force on Economic Growth in Puerto Rico already identified actions that Congress and executive agencies could take to foster economic growth in Puerto Rico. We also considered actions that could address Puerto Rico’s unfunded pension liability as outside of our scope. The actions we identified may also help avert future unsustainable debt levels in other territories; however, we did not assess whether and how each action would apply to other territories.

We conducted this performance audit from January 2017 to May 2018 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives.

Appendix II: Comments from the Government of Puerto Rico

Appendix III: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments

GAO Contact

Staff Acknowledgments

In addition to the contact named above, Jeff Arkin (Assistant Director), Amy Radovich (Analyst in Charge), Pedro Almoguera, Karen Cassidy, Daniel Mahoney, A.J. Stephens, and Justin Snover made significant contributions to this report.