Liberia: Political Transition and U.S. Relations
Released: 2018-05-15T00:00:00

Overview and Key Developments

Liberia is a small West African country of about 4.7 million people. Its government continues to pursue a transition toward a national policy agenda focused on alleviation of poverty, which is widespread, long-term growth and development, and the reconstruction of infrastructure and public service institutions devastated by two civil wars (1989-1997 and 1999-2003). The country is also continuing to overcome the economic effects of a devastating outbreak of the contagious and often fatal Ebola Virus Disease (2014-2016), which spurred a sharp decrease in economic growth rates and a 1.6% contraction of the economy in 2016.

Liberia, a constitutional republic with a bicameral national legislature, recently completed a political transition following presidential and House of Representatives elections in October 2017 and a subsequent presidential runoff election. The latter was won by George Weah, of the Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC). Weah, a former internationally famed professional soccer player, was inaugurated on January 22, 2018, becoming Liberia's 25 th president and its second post-war head of state. He succeeded two-term president Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, who was term-limited.

The election was of particular local political significance given Liberia's history of presidential dominance and its winner-take-all political culture and history of undemocratic governmental transitions—and as it brought about Liberia's first electoral transfer of state executive power since 1944. At stake in the election were the substantial reforms and development successes that Liberia has achieved since 2003, along with the many economic, social, and governance challenges—including corruption and accountability for war-time human rights violations—that the country continues to face. Also at issue was the preservation of gains resulting from more than $5 billion dollars in U.S. post-war investments in development, security, and humanitarian welfare, and considerable aid from other donors. Such support—along with significant in-flows of mostly commodity-focused foreign investment—helped contribute to a rapid expansion of Liberia's economy prior to the Ebola outbreak, which spurred a sharp decrease in economic growth rates and a 1.6% contraction of the economy in 2016.

The Trump Administration issued a statement lauding "the people of Liberia on the successful conclusion of the presidential runoff election" of 2017, calling the electoral process "a major milestone for Liberia's democracy," and congratulating Weah on his victory. It commended Liberia's National Elections Commission (NEC) "for administering an orderly election process" and other key institutions that had played key roles in ensuring a "peaceful and transparent contest." It also stated that the "United States is deeply committed to our longstanding relationship with Liberia and its people" and would "continue to support the success of this historic democratic transition and the peace and prosperity of Liberia."

U.S. Ties: Background

The United States has had a nearly 200-year bilateral relationship with Liberia and played a formative role in its creation. In 1822, an entity called the American Colonization Society began an effort to resettle free African Americans and former U.S. slaves in an area then-known as the Pepper Coast, located in modern coastal Liberia. In 1847, these settlers issued a declaration of independence and established the modern Liberian republic. Known as Americo-Liberians, the settler population held a near monopoly on state power until a coup d'état in 1980 led by a junior military officer of indigenous descent.

The United States helped mediate an end to both of Liberia's civil wars, provided substantial aid to help meet wartime humanitarian needs, and supported post-conflict stabilization efforts. In 2003, as then-President Charles Taylor clung to power amid a rebel assault on the capital, Monrovia, then-President George W. Bush ordered a limited U.S. military intervention to signal U.S. support for consolidating a ceasefire and a related accord ending the war known as the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). The CPA was facilitated by departure into exile in Nigeria of Taylor, a former armed faction leader who had been elected president in 1997 after a peace accord ending the country's first civil war. The United States then provided logistical and financial support to a West African regional intervention force, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Mission in Liberia (ECOMIL), which deployed to Liberia in September 2003. Most of its personnel were integrated into a larger follow-on United Nations (U.N.) peacekeeping operation, the U.N. Mission in Liberia (UNMIL), which was established weeks later. UNMIL completed its mandate on March 30, 2018. The United States funded roughly a quarter of the costs of UNMIL, although the exact percentage has varied by year.

U.S. relations with the Sirleaf administration were warm from the start of her tenure in 2006, due largely to her experience as an international development professional, banker, and businessperson, and her frequent positive interactions with U.S. officials. In 2013, the Obama Administration launched a U.S.-Liberia Partnership Dialogue centering mostly on bilateral development cooperation. The most recent dialogue under this process was held in January 2017.

Congress has helped shape U.S. relations with Liberia, notably through the appropriations process and periodic hearings focused on elections, Ebola, and other developments in the country, as well as through Member visits to Liberia. The 2017 elections and future prospects for Liberia were the subject of a September 2017 U.S. House of Representatives hearing, as well as two resolutions calling for free, fair, and peaceful elections in October 2017. Since 2006, Congress has fostered relations through a House Democracy Partnership (HDP) program with the Liberian legislature. Liberian immigration to the United States, while limited, has also drawn congressional attention and engagement.

U.S. Aid Trends and Ebola Response

Bilateral cooperation prior to and since the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic has centered on development assistance and military reform. The focus of U.S. development programs, administered primarily by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and the State Department, has ranged from the infrastructure sector, with a priority on boosting access to electricity and road maintenance, to health, education, agriculture, and economic growth activities. Democracy and good governance efforts—supporting elections administration, anti-corruption programs, and civil service capacity-building, legislative capacity-building, extractive industry oversight, and land rights—have been another key priority.

A State Department program also supported the post-war disbandment of the Liberia's military and the recruitment, establishment, and training, aided by the Department of Defense, of a new national military, including a coast guard. Additionally, the United States has helped Liberia build its criminal justice sector and supported transitional justice efforts. Within the United States, U.S. federal law enforcement agencies have also occasionally arrested and prosecuted alleged perpetrators of Liberian civil war human rights abuses, generally using immigration perjury charges as a vehicle for prosecution (see Liberia's Civil Wars: Taylor and Judicial Responses to Wartime Rights Abuses below).

Most nonhealth-related U.S. assistance activities were temporarily supplanted during the Ebola epidemic by large amounts of emergency U.S. assistance targeted toward halting and recovering from the outbreak. Assistance programs subsequently transitioned back toward pre-epidemic goals, along with continued post-Ebola health system strengthening. In 2015, as the epidemic was ending, Liberia also entered into a Compact with the U.S. Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). The five-year, $257 million, set of programs centers on electrical power generation and related technical and regulatory capacity-building and enhanced national road maintenance.

Political Background

Sirleaf Administration (2006-2018)

Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, a U.S.-educated former government administrator, banker, and U.N. Development Program official, became president after winning a runoff election against Weah in 2005, in Liberia's first post-war general elections. The first woman to be elected president of an African country, she took office in early 2006, assuming power from the unelected National Transitional Government of Liberia (NTGL).

During her first term she focused on transitioning Liberia from dependence on immediate post-war recovery and humanitarian assistance toward a longer-term development agenda. Although poverty has remained widespread and public services and infrastructure are limited, Sirleaf is widely regarded as having earned the confidence of foreign aid donors, leading to large, sustained inflows of assistance for the war-ravaged country. This aid financed the rehabilitation of infrastructure and state institutional capacity-building, alongside a wide range of other development and stabilization efforts. It was supplemented by rising state revenues during her tenure: the national budget grew from $80 million in 2006 to $516 million by the end of her first term. Liberia also established a Truth and Reconciliation Commission during her tenure. Many of its recommendations were controversial and were only partially implemented. One of its proposals called for Sirleaf and other figures—most alleged leaders or key supporters of armed civil war factions—to be banned from public leadership roles.

The Sirleaf administration also received considerable support and oversight through the USAID-administered Governance and Economic Management Program (GEMAP, 2005-2010). It aimed to improve state fiscal management and contract capacities and counter administrative corruption, and supported diverse economic governance and judicial capacity-building efforts. Its use of contract-based foreign managers to supervise fiscal flows of key public sector revenue-earning entities, however, drew local sovereignty-focused criticisms. A similar follow-on effort, the Governance and Economic Management Support (GEMS) program, ended in 2016.

Sirleaf was reelected in 2011 in a highly contentious runoff against Winston Tubman of the Congress for Democratic Change party, whose vice presidential running-mate was Weah. As her second term proceeded, domestic criticism of Sirleaf's leadership record grew, with critics—notably the country's numerous opposition parties—arguing that she had insufficiently delivered on her campaign promises with regard to economic expansion, living conditions, job growth, and service delivery. Corruption within her government was another key focus of criticism. Although Sirleaf herself was not accused of corruption, and launched various initiatives to combat the problem, there were repeated scandals involving officials within her administration. Some critics accused her of nepotism, given that three of her sons obtained top government positions.

Some of these shortcomings, however, were likely attributable less to her personal leadership failures than to abiding structural challenges. These include low state operational and human resource capacities, a widespread lack of education, endemic corruption in the local political culture and public sector, and the poor state of national infrastructure (despite donor-funded improvements under Sirleaf). The Ebola outbreak also dealt a sharp blow to Liberia's development prospects and economic growth during Sirleaf's second term.

Despite mixed domestic views of Sirleaf, she had many strong supporters among Liberians, notably among women. She also earned domestic plaudits for ensuring stability, although this outcome was likely aided in no small measure by the UNMIL peacekeeping mission. Sirleaf was also lauded internationally for her leadership in post-war peacebuilding, socioeconomic growth, and development in Liberia, and for her advocacy on behalf of international gender equality. In 2007, she received the U.S. Presidential Medal of Freedom from then-President George W. Bush, who expressed admiration for her leadership and achievements, and was among three winners of the 2011 Nobel Peace Prize. In 2018, after stepping down, she was awarded the Mo Ibrahim Prize for good governance in Africa. Sirleaf attracted negative attention from some foreign observers, however, for defending the criminalization of homosexuality in Liberia and for the persistence of corruption under her tenure.

The 2017 Election

Liberia held presidential and House of Representative elections on October 10, 2017. There were 20 presidential contenders, of whom one was female. Top candidates included Weah (CDC) and then-incumbent Vice President Joseph Boakai (Unity Party or UP). Weah's CDC Coalition running mate was then-Senator Jewel Howard-Taylor of the National Patriotic Party (NPP), the party of her former husband, the former president and convicted war criminal Charles Taylor. Weah also included in his circle of advisers two ex-commanders of Taylor's armed faction. In early 2017, controversy erupted after reports that Taylor, imprisoned in the UK, had influenced the formation of the CDC Coalition via mobile phone conversations. Weah denied any private communications with Taylor, but admitted speaking to him on a supporter's phone during a party meeting. He later disavowed links to Taylor or any putative Taylor agenda.

The October elections featured turnout by 1.64 million voters (75% of the electorate). No candidate received the 50% majority needed for an outright win, necessitating a runoff between the two leading vote recipients, Weah and Boakai. Weah won this second contest, garnering 61.5% of votes. In the House elections, Weah's CDC won 21 of 73 seats and Boakai's UP 19; independents won 12 seats. Remaining seats were distributed among 10 smaller parties, none of which won more than five seats.

The presidential runoff, held on December 26, 2017, was preceded by substantial controversy pertaining to allegations by the first round third runner-up, later joined by Boakai's UP and another party, alleging that the first round election had been marred by fraud and irregularities. They unsuccessfully pursued a National Election Commission (NEC) complaint and a Supreme Court suit seeking to have the first round vote annulled. Their effort led to concerns that their efforts dispute might lead to a political crisis and potential instability.

Foreign and domestic election monitors assessed the election to have been peaceful, transparent, generally well-conducted and credible, despite a range of mostly minor procedural flaws. The National Elections Commission (NEC) received substantial U.S. and other foreign assistance in support of its conduct of the election.

President Weah: New Administration

George Weah, whose prior national political record was limited to his tenure as a Senator beginning in 2014, is a retired professional European league soccer player who earned global fame for his achievements in the sport. He was born in 1966 in Grand Kru County, in Liberia's remote and underdeveloped east, but grew up poor in a Monrovia slum, and reportedly dropped out of high school. He is primarily of mixed Kru and Bassa ethnic descent, but has family ties in counties where other ethnic groups predominate. His lack of formal education was a point of criticism during his unsuccessful run for the presidency in 2005, but he earned a high school degree in 2007 and went on to earn an undergraduate business management degree in the United States. In 2014, he won election as a Senator representing Montserrado County, which surrounds Monrovia.

Known as King George to his supporters, Weah is also a former UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador and an amateur musician who recorded peace-building and Ebola awareness songs. He is reported to have a "warm, personable, and generous" personal style. His rags-to-riches story, his personal philanthropy in Liberia (e.g., financing a school in his old neighborhood and funding the national soccer team), and apparent empathy for him as a victim of social bias due to his lack of education, all appear to have helped earn him strong support, notably among Liberia's often poor and disenfranchised youth population.

Weah's choice of Senator Jewel Howard-Taylor as his running mate raised questions among some analysts regarding possible continuing ties to her imprisoned former husband, Charles Taylor, and whether she had knowledge of wartime atrocities attributed to him. Howard-Taylor and her supporters, however, emphasized the strength of her own personal record as an elected official and a need for voters to judge her on her own merit. After serving as First Lady, Howard-Taylor was elected as a Senator in 2005 and was reelected in 2014. In recent years, she has drawn international and local attention for advocating efforts to make homosexuality a felony potentially punishable by death, and to have Liberia formally declared a Christian nation. She holds multiple higher education degrees. As a Senator, she sponsored a number of anti-corruption and transparency bills, and worked to ensure the delivery of enhanced public services and infrastructure to her constituency.

Governance Prospects

Weah's policy agenda is set out in the CDC's election platform, and was reiterated in his inaugural address. Although the platform document arguably lacks cogency as written, it sets out multiple specific policy proposals under four broad "pillar" issue areas

Power to People: Enhance education and training, health, and sanitation services, socioeconomically empower the youth, and increase gender equality; Economy and Jobs: Achieve sustained economic growth and diversification, with a focus on agriculture, forestry, and infrastructure development; Sustaining the Peace: Improve criminal justice system and military, promote human rights, prevent conflict, and foster social reconciliation; and Governance and Transparency: Decentralize government, bolster public sector accountability, and fight corruption.

The extent to which the Weah administration may be able to effectively pursue this agenda remains to be seen. Much of Weah's platform, however, essentially seeks to incrementally advance existing policies and institutional goals, suggesting substantial likely continuity with much of the Sirleaf agenda. Weah's leadership style and emphases, however, may alter the tone of politics in Liberia. After taking office, Weah—contending the economy is "broken... [and] our government is broke"—reduced his own salary and benefits by 25%. Such comments and actions, and Weah's vows to prioritize anti-poverty efforts and decentralize government, have raised the possibility of a shift away from a pattern in which members of a small, powerful elite exercise power and influence in service of their own pecuniary self-interest.

Despite such prospects, given the many challenging governance problems that face his administration and the possibly unreasonably high expectations of him held by many of his supporters, Weah has sought to temper expectations about what he may be able to achieve in the short term. He has initially prioritized efforts to increase exports and agricultural productivity, with a focus on food production, and on road-building and other infrastructure investments. He has also established an independent panel to review commercial land and natural resource concessions granted to foreign investors under Sirleaf.

In key speeches, Weah also has stressed the need to combat corruption—although Weah's initial justice minister appointment drew criticism on this front, later prompting Weah to replace him. Weah has also come under fire for reportedly failing to declare his assets and for allegedly illegally replacing the head of the Liberia Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (LEITI). The reported appointment of three of Weah's relatives to posts in the National Port Authority by the interim head of that agency also raised possible concerns over nepotism.

He has also come under criticism for making comments in which he said a well-known Liberian international wire service reporter was "against" Weah. The journalist took the comment as an implicit threat and departed the country. Weah later denied any ill-intent toward the journalist and issued statements in support of freedom of expression. The unexplained murder of a journalist, in an unrelated case, has also raised concerns about press freedom under Weah's watch.

Economy

Liberia continues to face substantial economic challenges. Joblessness is reportedly high, although hard data are lacking, and technical skills and training are limited, as are cross-sectoral integration and value-added processing of commodities like timber, rubber, and ores. Economic growth has been uneven nationally and artificially boosted by aid inflows. According to the World Bank, the robustness of Liberia's economic recovery from a drop in the prices of key commodity exports and the residual effects of the Ebola crisis "will depend on the effective diversification of the economy, development of strong institutions, and a smooth political transition." Before the Ebola outbreak, then-President Sirleaf's most notable successes were arguably economic, although extreme poverty has remained widespread and the country continues to face many deep-set development challenges.

Nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew steadily, from $585 million in 2004, the first year after the second war, to just over $2 billion in recent years (2014-2017). According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), real GDP growth then dropped sharply, due largely to the Ebola outbreak, from 8.8% in 2013, the year before the outbreak, to 0.7% in 2014 and 0.01% in 2015. It then contracted by 1.6% in 2016 before recovering somewhat in 2017, to 2.5%. GDP per capita, at $729 in 2017, remains low, even though it has grown from $224, where it stood when Sirleaf took office.

Liberia's pre-epidemic growth rested, in part, on large inflows of development aid premised on donor confidence in Sirleaf; on her government's negotiation of multiple natural resource-focused foreign direct investment (FDI) deals; and, to a lesser extent, on public investment in the agricultural sector. The Sirleaf administration reported having negotiated multi-year deals worth an aggregate potential $16 billion over a period of up to 25 years, although current FDI stocks total less than half of this amount. FDI has centered on concession deals in mining, with a focus on iron ore and gold, and agro-forestry (e.g., rubber and palm oil). Some oil discoveries have also been made but may be developed only gradually, as dictated by market conditions. Allocation of rights to these discoveries have been the subject of considerable recent controversy involving alleged corruption in relation to the allocation of an offshore oil block later purchased by the U.S. firm Exxon.

The U.S. State Department reports that investment has been hindered by a "weak regulatory environment, corruption, lack of transparency, poor physical infrastructure, and low private sector capacity." Liberia ranked 172 nd out of 190 countries in the World Bank's 2018 Ease of Doing Business report.

In addition to the aid that has played such a crucial in post-war rebuilding of critical infrastructure and social services, notably education and health, Liberia received roughly $4.6 billion in international debt forgiveness in 2010, after several years of negotiations. The Sirleaf government also earned positive economic policy performance marks from the international financial institutions (IFIs). In part as a result, Liberia receives substantial IFI loans, grants, and policy advice, as well as U.N. technical agency assistance. As of late 2017, the World Bank was funding 14 projects in Liberia worth nearly $598 million, in addition to aid under bank regional programs.

Road, water, and power infrastructure construction has been a key focus of gradual but continuing success, although Liberia continues to face large unmet infrastructure needs. Agriculture provided about 36% of GDP in 2017 and has been a key target of government development policy in recent years; it is a primary contributor to non-extractive production and livelihoods, along with micro-enterprise activity. Like the Sirleaf administration, the current government appears likely to prioritize agricultural development, which has been a major focus of U.S. support under the Feed the Future global food security initiative.

Human Rights, Security, and Governance Issues

Human Rights

According to the State Department's most recent annual human rights report, covering 2017, the most serious human rights concerns included "extrajudicial killings by police; police abuse, harassment, and intimidation of detainees and others; arbitrary arrest and detention; press harassment; official corruption; lack of accountability in cases of violence against women and children, including rape, domestic violence, and female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C); criminalization of same-sex sexual conduct; and trafficking in persons." Another key problem was impunity from justice "for individuals who committed atrocities during the civil wars, as well as for those responsible for current and continuing crimes, despite intermittent and limited government attempts to investigate and prosecute officials accused of current abuses, whether in the security forces or elsewhere in the government." The report also noted that corruption "at all levels of government continued to undermine public trust in state institutions."

U.N. reporting on Liberia has echoed many of these conclusions. A mid-2017 report on UNMIL operations and general developments stated that the country is affected by "high incidence of sexual and gender-based violence; harmful traditional practices, such as female genital mutilation [FGM], forcible initiation into secret societies, trial by ordeal and accusations of witchcraft; curtailment of the freedom of speech; and limited national capacity and resources to promote and protect human rights." Similar past reports have also documented weaknesses in the law enforcement sector and in other in state institutions, notwithstanding post-war improvements. Just prior to leaving office President Sirleaf enacted an executive order temporarily banning FGM (for a year). Observers have also periodically raised concerns about restrictions on the press, including as a result of libel suits in which individuals or public authorities have sought large damage awards in cases often filed on arguably dubious grounds.

The U.S. State Department's 2017 Trafficking in Persons (TIP) Report classifies Liberia as a Tier 2 Watch List country under the Trafficking Victims Protection Act (TVPA, Division A of P.L. 106-386 , as amended, and its reauthorizations). This means that Liberia does not fully comply with minimum U.S. standards for eliminating trafficking and that while it is attempting to do so, it did not demonstrate increased efforts compared to 2016, when it was a Tier 2 country (i.e., one that did not meet such standards, but was attempting to meet them). The report states that Liberia "is a source and destination country for men, women, and children subjected to forced... domestic servitude, forced begging, sex trafficking, or forced labor in street vending, alluvial diamond mines, and on rubber plantations." The report also asserts that such victimization occurs mostly within Liberia, though some transnational trafficking occurs.

Liberia's Civil Wars: Taylor and Judicial Responses to Wartime Rights Abuses

Charles Taylor was key figure in both of Liberia's civil wars. A former Liberian civil servant accused of embezzlement, he returned to West Africa in the late 1980s after escaping from prison in Massachusetts, where he had been held on an extradition arrest warrant. He then formed an armed group, the National Patriotic Front of Liberia (NPFL). It launched attacks on state targets in 1989 from bases in Côte d'Ivoire, initiating the first civil war. Taylor was elected president in 1997 following a peace deal that, after many abortive attempts, ended the first conflict.

Liberia's second war began in 1999 with an initially low-level insurgency by Liberian rebels based in Guinea and then burgeoned into a nationwide conflict in 2000. It was spurred by residual antagonisms and grievances associated with the first civil war, political rivalries, and the Taylor administration's poor governance record, which was characterized by human rights abuses and corruption. The second war pitted Taylor's forces against two armed anti-Taylor rebel groups: Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) and the Movement for Democracy in Liberia (MODEL).

Both wars caused an extreme deterioration in political, economic, humanitarian, and human rights conditions. They also affected neighboring states, which hosted Liberian refugees and, in some cases, anti-Taylor forces. The Taylor regime also sponsored or facilitated acts of armed aggression against Liberia's neighbors, most notably Sierra Leone. As part of a deal to end the second war, Taylor entered political exile in Nigeria in August 2003. He was arrested in 2006 on a previously sealed warrant issued by the Special Court for Sierra Leone (SCSL), a judicial body of mixed international and national legal jurisdiction created to try those bearing the greatest responsibility for war crimes and crimes against humanity perpetrated during Sierra Leone's civil war (1991-2002). In 2012, the SCSL convicted Taylor of war crimes in relation to his support of the Revolutionary United Front (RUF), an armed group that rebelled against Sierra Leone's elected government. He was then sentenced to 50 years in prison.

In 2009, Taylor's U.S.-born son, Roy M. Belfast Jr. (AKA Charles McArthur Emmanuel or Charles "Chuckie" Taylor Jr.), was sentenced to 97 years in prison by a U.S. District Court judge after being convicted on crimes related to wartime acts of torture in Liberia between 1999 and 2003. He was the first defendant to be tried and convicted under 18 U.S.C. § 2340A, a U.S. federal extraterritorial statute that makes it a crime for persons present in the United States to commit or abet torture abroad. Belfast had previously pled guilty and been sentenced to prison for federal passport fraud pertaining to passport application perjury in relation to his father's identity.

The United States has also arrested alleged perpetrators of human rights abuses during Liberia's civil wars, often on immigration application perjury charges related to omissions or falsehoods pertaining to the defendants' alleged roles in wartime human rights violations. In April 2018, Mohammed Jabateh, a former commander of United Liberation Movement of Liberia for Democracy-Kromah, an armed faction during the first civil war, was sentenced to 30 years in prison for such acts. Thomas Woewiyu also faces trial in U.S. federal court for lying on citizenship application documents. Woewiyu was a key figure in Taylor's armed rebel group and later served as minister of defense and later as labor minister under Taylor after his 1997 election as president. In 2012, George Boley, former leader of the Liberia Peace Council, another armed faction leader, was deported from the United States for actions pertaining to his wartime involvement in the recruitment and use of child soldiers. A former wife of Taylor, Agnes Taylor, is slated to face trial in 2018 in the United Kingdom, on a date yet to be determined, in relation to her alleged involvement in torture committed by Taylor's NPFL during the first civil war.

Such prosecutions have been aided in the United States by the Justice Department's Human Rights Special Prosecutions Section. Meanwhile, the Liberian Quest for Justice Campaign, an effort of the Liberia-based Global Justice and Research Project a Swiss group, Civitas Maxima, has provided legal assistance to victims of war time abuses, both in the United States and elsewhere, aimed at ensuring their perpetrators face judicial sanction.

To date, no similar trials have taken place in Liberia, where accountability for wartime human rights violations is a sensitive topic. Although the TRC recommended that a war crimes tribunal be established, and politicians and policy advocates have periodically reiterated calls for such a body—including during the 2017 election campaign—policymakers have rejected efforts to establish such a court. This is partially attributable to opposition from former armed faction leaders, a number of whom are current or past elected office holders. Some observers have raised fears about a return to conflict should the state attempt to hold wartime perpetrators of human rights crimes to account, as well as other political and psychosocial challenges potentially associated with revisiting wartime atrocities.

Security

A June 2017 U.N. status report on UNMIL (the most recent such report) described Liberia's security situation as "generally stable" but marred by "sporadic incidents such as armed robberies, burglaries, presumed ritual killings, land disputes, mob violence and demonstrations." It noted that the national police "were unable to respond appropriately to all incidents, especially in the remote counties, owing to understaffing and a lack of resources, such as vehicles." Other sources of instability in recent years have included clashes between authorities and groups such as street vendors and motorcycle taxi drivers, ethnic and communal tensions, joblessness, and illicit activities by ex-combatants and disenfranchised youth. Mob violence and vigilantism are common due, in part, to poor criminal justice sector capacities. Violent crime also presents challenges, as have sometimes violent acts of police and military indiscipline.

UNMIL supervised a disarmament process, trained Liberia's civilian security services, maintained security, and helped reestablish state authority and build governance and related capacities, among a wide range of other functions. A gradual drawdown of UNMIL, based on progress in meeting an array of U.N. Security Council-designated benchmarks, began in 2011. In mid-2016, UNMIL officially transferred all national security responsibilities to the Liberian government in advance of UNMIL's departure. UNMIL thereafter carried out a limited set of security and peace-building functions prior to the end of its mandate on March 30, 2018. The mission's termination raised concerns among some Liberians and some foreign observers, who questioned whether Liberian security agencies would be capable of ensuring national security and public safety.

Despite UNMIL's withdrawal, Liberia is likely to continue to receive nonsecurity assistance to help maintain stability. In April 2017 the U.N. Secretary-General submitted to the Security Council a peacebuilding plan under which multiple U.N. system agencies, the U.N. Peacebuilding Commission, and multilateral financial and regional institutions are to provide technical and other support to Liberia.

Corruption and Related Challenges to Trust in State Institutions

Corruption is a long-standing key concern for Liberians, alongside development, economic growth, and probity in the public sector. A 2016 Catholic Relief Services/Justice and Peace Commission (JPC) report, State of Peace , documented a high level of public concern over corruption, along with fears about the perceived fragility of peace in Liberia. Afrobarometer surveys in 2015 also found widespread dissatisfaction with government performance, notably regarding challenges linked to unemployment, infrastructure, economic management, education, and agriculture. In addition to citing concerns over land and property disputes, the Catholic Relief Services/JPC study highlighted horizontal divisions defined by "regional, ethnic, religious, urban vs. rural and young vs. old cleavages" and "vertical" challenges to social cohesion from "crony capitalism, rent-seeking, and a weak civic society." It also identified poverty and a "desperate need" for better "livelihoods, education and jobs, especially for young people" as other key challenges.

The Sirleaf government pursued diverse efforts to improve state transparency and strengthen the rule of law, albeit to mixed effect. While the country dropped from 150 th globally in 2006 on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index to 122 nd in 2017, corruption was widely reported to be widespread when Sirleaf left office. She attributed her limited gains in fighting corruption not to a lack of political will, but to "the intractability of dependency and dishonesty cultivated from years of deprivation and poor governance."

Legislature

The legislature's capacity reportedly remains weak, in spite of a past U.S.-funded legislative strengthening program (2009-2013) and other donor support. Contributing factors include electoral turnover and, in some cases, the election of inexperienced members with minimal formal education. Some legislators have also been accused of treating their offices as vehicles for personal gain, and have rejected efforts to toughen anti-corruption measures. Institutional challenges that hinder legislative effectiveness include a tradition of executive branch dominance; limited political party discipline; weak rule of law, corruption and informal, often self-interested decision-making; and lack of experienced civil society issue advocacy.

U.S. Relations

The Trump Administration has indicated that the United States remains committed to the long-standing and close U.S.-Liberian bilateral relationship and to ongoing efforts to help consolidate democracy, peace, and economic growth in Liberia, as previously discussed. Ongoing U.S.-Liberia cooperation centers largely on continuing post-Ebola health system strengthening and general socioeconomic development.

Congress, which Sirleaf addressed in a 2006 joint session, has shown continuing interest in Liberia's post-war development and has held hearings on its development, stability, and democratization trajectories, most recently in September 2017, in advance of the elections. Congress has also fostered bilateral relations with the Liberian legislature through the House Democracy Partnership (HDP) program. Launched in 2006, the program has focused on the development of Liberian parliamentary staff and research capacities, largely through peer-to-peer visits and exchanges. A U.S.-Liberia Partnership Dialogue launched in 2013 has focused on enhancing bilateral diplomatic and development cooperation, with a focus on agriculture and food security; energy and power infrastructure; and human development. The most recent dialogue meeting was held in early 2017.

Liberian immigration to the United States also plays a role in bilateral relations. According to the U.S. Census, 88,090 persons of Liberian birth lived in the United States in 2016 and while relatively small, this population has drawn some congressional attention.

U.S. Assistance

USAID and the State Department have administered the bulk of U.S. post-war non-Ebola bilateral aid to Liberia. This aid has been augmented since early 2016 by a $257 million MCC Compact signed in late 2015 (see below). Bilateral State Department and USAID assistance totaled $91 million in FY2016 and $112 million in FY2017. The Trump Administration proposed a total of $29 million for FY2018 and $43 million for FY2019. The State Department and USAID also allocated roughly $618 million in emergency funding appropriated by Congress to support the U.S. Ebola response in Liberia, as earlier discussed.

USAID non-Ebola-related assistance in recent years has focused on five often-overlapping areas: economic growth; health; education; democracy and governance; and crosscutting issues, such as youth development, gender equity, and environmental conservation. Much of this aid was provided under global or Africa-specific presidential development initiatives, including Feed the Future, the Global Health Initiative, the President's Malaria Initiative (started by President Bush and expanded by President Obama), and Power Africa. Liberia also participates in the U.S. Young African Leaders initiative (YALI), which fosters the development of emergent young African business, civic, and public management leaders through exchange-based fellowships.

State Department-administered aid has supported police, judicial, and other law enforcement capacity-building; military training; and, in cooperation with DOD, security sector reform targeting the military. The State Department has also funded U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) programs providing basic service delivery, protection, and return assistance to Ivoirian refugees in Liberia. The United States also helps finance various U.N. organizations that support Liberia and, as with all U.N. peacekeeping operations, has funded just over a quarter of the cost of UNMIL (e.g., $106 million in FY2016, with $62 million estimated for FY2017). Multiple USAID programs have supported post-war democratic strengthening focused on electoral processes and legislative capacity-building.

Other governance aid has sought to improve fiscal management and controls, and public administration transparency, accountability, and effectiveness, as well as public sector institutional reform and decentralization; service delivery; citizen participation in governance; tax collection and taxpayer accountability and responsibility; and support for legal professionals and anti-corruption activities.

Other Federal Agencies

The Department of the Treasury's Office of Technical Assistance (OTA) has maintained a presence in Liberia for most of the post-war period with the aim, for instance, of helping the Liberia Revenue Authority to prevent and address employee corruption and misconduct and improve physical and information technology security. In early 2016, OTA initiated a multi-year program (2016-2019) to build the capacity of the Liberia Financial Intelligence Unit to combat money laundering and terrorism financing. Treasury has also periodically deployed advisors to help with central bank operations and budgeting; taxation; and fiscal policy, management, and regulation.

In October 2015, the MCC signed a $256.7 million, five-year compact with Liberia. The agreement, which entered into force in January 2016, seeks to address two chief constraints on economic growth: lack of access to reliable, affordable electricity and poor road infrastructure. The power component of the Compact is an MCC contribution to the Power Africa initiative, launched under the Obama Administration. It seeks to train power sector technicians and build energy sector regulatory capacities, and it supports the establishment of a nationwide road maintenance system. It has also supported the rehabilitation of the Mt. Coffee Hydroelectric Plant, destroyed in Liberia's wars. The MCC previously supported a Threshold Program (2010-2013) focused on expanding girls' access to education, land access and tenure reform, and trade policy and practice.

There is also an education-focused Peace Corps program in Liberia, funded at roughly $5 million a year, with target volunteer contingent of between 120 (FY2017) and 110 (FY2018). Its launch was preceded by the deployment, in 2008, of a small number of volunteers under a special short-term humanitarian service deployment program called Peace Corps Response. Other U.S. agencies periodically fund usually small projects in targeted areas (e.g., combatting forced labor, national park development, trade and investment, and species conservation).

Security Cooperation

The Armed Forces of Liberia (AFL), a force of around 2,100 personnel, was created with nearly $250 million in U.S. aid. This assistance also helped to disband the prior military and recruit and vet new personnel. After the AFL achieved operational status in 2010, U.S. support shifted from a primarily contractor-based basic training and capacity-building to military-to-military mentoring under an advisory program known as Operation Onward Liberty, which concluded in August 2016. Liberia's small Coast Guard was also created with U.S support.

Current security sector reform activities are supported by contractors and periodic engagement with U.S. military personnel. These efforts have been funded with State Department regional Peacekeeping Operations (PKO) aid. The State Department has also funded training, equipment, and advisory support for the AFL using Foreign Military Financing (FMF) grants. A State Department-funded International Military Education and Training (IMET) program supports senior- and mid-level military and civilian defense personnel professionalization, with a focus on human rights, civil-military relations, and management skills. The DOD Defense Institution Reform Initiative has supported Liberian Ministry of Defense capacity-building, and DOD's Defense Institute of International Legal Studies has provided the AFL with periodic training to boost its military justice capabilities. There is a Michigan U.S. National Guard State Partnership Program with Liberia, and periodic cooperation with U.S. Africa Command.

In 2013, the AFL—in its first-ever international troop contingent—sent 50 troops to Mali to join the U.N. peacekeeping mission there, MINUSMA. This was the second major AFL operation; the first was a 2012 deployment within Liberia to help bolster security along the border with Côte d'Ivoire. The AFL also collaborated with Operation United Assistance, the U.S. military response to Ebola, notably in support of engineering for Ebola treatment units. The AFL also helped enforce Ebola-related quarantine, but the AFL's use of live rounds reportedly killed a youth, drawing criticism, including by the U.S. ambassador. While AFL capacity has improved steadily, there have been cases of absenteeism and troop protests about living conditions, as well as periodic reports of indiscipline.

Outlook

Liberia is at peace, as are its neighbors, and—in a departure from much of its history—the country confronts no major internal or external security threats. Liberia faces many profound development and economic challenges, however, and a failure to successfully address them—in particular by increasing job growth, diversifying the economy, and addressing the needs of Liberia's large, often disenfranchised youth population—could generate political grievances. There are also many localized sources of potential unrest, including mob violence attributable to lack of trust in the police and justice systems, competition over land and other resources, and anger over corruption.

Weah appears to be enjoying a political honeymoon, but its duration may be limited, given the pressing nature of the challenges the country faces. His success is likely to depend on his ability to prove—both to Liberia's citizens and to the international community—that he can govern competently, transparently, and accountably. Still, while he inherits many problems from the Sirleaf administration, he is also the beneficiary of extensive and ongoing donor-backed development and capacity-building assistance, including from the United States, initiated under Sirleaf. The prior government also proposed a range of reform legislation and policies that were not enacted or implemented that the new government may be able to adapt and pursue. For the time being, the United States appears set to continue to support Liberia's current development trajectory, albeit with assistance allocations lower than those provided during recent past years.