Mexico’s 2006 Elections
Released: 2006-10-03T00:00:00

Background

Mexico held presidential and congressional elections on July 2, 2006. The presidential vote was the second since the end of the Institutional Revolutionary Party's (PRI) 71-year authoritarian rule in 2000. President Vicente Fox of the National Action Party (PAN) was constitutionally prohibited from seeking re-election. The three major candidates were populist AndrÃ©s Manuel LÃ³pez Obrador of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), conservative Felipe CalderÃ³n Hinojosa of the PAN, and Roberto Madrazo of the PRI. Mexican law requires only a plurality of votes in a presidential race and does not provide for a second round of voting.

Presidential Election Results and Aftermath

After a highly contested election, PAN candidate Felipe CalderÃ³n was named president-elect of Mexico on September 5, 2006, and is due to be sworn into office on December 1, 2006. According to the final vote count, CalderÃ³n won just under 36% of the vote, defeating PRD candidate AndrÃ©s Manuel LÃ³pez Obrador by less than 234,000 votes. Voter turnout was 59%.

Although Mexico's Federal Elections Institute (IFE) planned to announce results on July 2, the vote was too close to call. At the end of the preliminary vote count, CalderÃ³n held a slight lead over LÃ³pez Obrador, prompting the PRD candidate to call for a full recount of the votes. LÃ³pez Obrador challenged the July election results, alleging fraud at the polling places and illegal interference in the election by President Fox and conservative business groups. Mexico's Federal Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF), whose decisions cannot be appealed, issued a series of decisions related to fraud allegations in the presidential campaign and vote. First, it ordered a recount of 9% of polling places in early August. In a unanimous decision issued August 28, the Tribunal held that although there were some irregularities, the election was fair. The Tribunal annulled nearly 238,000 votes as a result of irregularities. On September 5, 2006, the Tribunal ruled unanimously that, although President Fox's comments jeopardized the election, they did not amount to illegal interference in the campaign. The Tribunal also found that commercials paid for by business groups at the end of the campaign were illegal but that the impact of the ads was insufficient to warrant the annulment of the presidential election. As a result of these findings, the Tribunal named Felipe CalderÃ³n president-elect on September 5, 2006.

After the vote, AndrÃ©s Manuel LÃ³pez Obrador led a campaign of civil disobedience, including the blockade of Mexico City's principal avenue, Paseo de la Reforma, until mid-September. It reportedly cost Mexico City businesses over $500 million in revenue. On September 1, 2006, PRD members of congress prevented President Fox from delivering the state of the union address at the Mexican congress. LÃ³pez Obrador rejected the election tribunal's September 5 ruling and was named the "legitimate president" of Mexico at a democratic convention held on September 16 at the Zocalo, Mexico City's main square. The PRD candidate is due to be sworn in as president of a "parallel government" on November 20. The convention also created three committees: one responsible for political negotiation, another to coordinate future civil disobedience, and a third to call a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution. It is not clear how this parallel government will operate or how much support it has. In mid-September PRD founder CuahtÃ©moc CÃ¡rdenas criticized LÃ³pez Obrador's tactics as undemocratic and criticized him for surrounding himself with advisors who helped to orchestrate what many believe to be Carlos Salinas de Gortari's fraudulent defeat of CuahtÃ©moc CÃ¡rdenas in the 1988 elections.

Profiles of Major Presidential Candidates

Felipe CalderÃ³n Hinojosa

Harvard-trained economist Felipe CalderÃ³n, the PAN presidential candidate, has been active in the conservative PAN since his youth. He served two terms in the Chamber of Deputies (1991-1994 and 2000-2003), was PAN party president (1996-1999) and Energy Minister (2003-2004) under President Vicente Fox. CalderÃ³n surprised many by winning the PAN nomination, since many observers anticipated that former Interior Minister Santiago Creel would easily win the nomination. Although CalderÃ³n was relatively unknown to the Mexican electorate in December 2005, by mid-June 2006 polls showed that he was in a tight race with PRD candidate AndrÃ©s Manuel LÃ³pez Obrador. CalderÃ³n's rise in the polls was believed to be the result of missteps by LÃ³pez Obrador and negative advertisements claiming the PRD candidate is a "danger to Mexico."

Running under the campaign slogan "Felipe CalderÃ³n: Jobs President (presidente de empleo)," CalderÃ³n maintained that Mexico's main problem is a shortage of well-paid jobs, which leads many Mexicans to migrate to the United States. He stressed that investment and competitiveness are keys to economic growth and job creation. CalderÃ³n pledged to create a positive investment climate by pursuing sound macroeconomic policies, balanced and sustainable budgets, and social investment; strengthening the rule of law; and creating funds to support social investment during economic downturns. He also expressed support for a development plan, similar to the European Union plan that stimulated the Irish and Spanish economies, funded by NAFTA members to increase jobs and reduce migration from under-developed regions of Mexico. CalderÃ³n also proposed opening Mexico's oil sector to private investment in the form of joint-ventures with the state-owned PetrÃ³leos Mexicanos (PEMEX) to further explore Mexican oil reserves, particularly potential deep-water reserves in the Gulf of Mexico. CalderÃ³n pledged to address Mexico's public security crisis by, among other measures, combating corruption; creating an agency to combat drug trafficking; extraditing criminals; unifying all federal police forces; and creating a national crime database to better understand the nature of criminal activity in Mexico. CalderÃ³n indicated he will pursue an active foreign policy, and work to restore relations with Venezuela, even though he does not support its ideology.

AndrÃ©s Manuel LÃ³pez Obrador

PRD presidential candidate AndrÃ©s Manuel LÃ³pez Obrador, a native of the southern state of Tabasco, studied political science and public administration at Universidad Nacional AutÃ³noma de MÃ©xico (UNAM) before returning to Tabasco to work with the Chontal Indian community. In the late 1980s, he aligned himself with CuahtÃ©moc CÃ¡rdenas, who had left the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), and founded the PRD in 1989. LÃ³pez Obrador was named party president for Tabasco in 1989, served as national party president (1996-1999), and was elected mayor of Mexico City (2000-2005). Extremely popular as mayor, he was expected to win the presidency easily in 2006. He led in the polls until late April 2006, when he lost support likely due to comments deemed disrespectful of President Fox and because of his refusal to take part in the April 25, 2006, presidential debates. In mid-June 2006, polls again showed LÃ³pez Obrador with a slight lead over PAN candidate Felipe CalderÃ³n.

LÃ³pez Obrador's campaign slogan was "For the good of all, the poor first (Por el bien de todos, primeros los pobres)." Not surprisingly, then, many of his 50 campaign pledges focused on poverty reduction, job creation, indigenous rights, and infrastructure investment. Proposed measures included guaranteeing a pension to all Mexicans over 70 years of age; protecting the rights of the indigenous and reducing poverty in indigenous communities; expanding access to education and improving its quality; increasing access to health care; creating incentives for maquila operators to stay in Mexico; and building high-speed rail lines. Of particular interest to the United States was his pledge to re-open NAFTA negotiations to protect Mexican corn and bean farmers. LÃ³pez Obrador opposes opening the state-owned oil company, PetrÃ³leos Mexicanos (PEMEX), to private investment, and charges that PEMEX's inefficiency is the result of corruption and a bloated bureaucracy. He planned to make Mexico self-sufficient in gasoline within three years of his taking office. LÃ³pez Obrador indicated that he would focus on Mexico's internal problems, not foreign policy, as president. Nevertheless, LÃ³pez Obrador stated that he will have a positive relationship with the United States. He planned to reduce emigration by addressing poverty and job creation. LÃ³pez Obrador, like CalderÃ³n, said he would be an advocate for the rights of Mexican migrants in the United States. In the June 6 debate he indicated that he would employ Mexico's consulates as branches of the Attorney General's office to protect Mexican migrants from discrimination. During the debate, LÃ³pez Obrador also stated that he would increase the role of the army to combat narcotics trafficking. Some observers feared that LÃ³pez Obrador would become an ally of Venezuelan President Hugo ChÃ¡vez, while others disputed this, pointing to the candidate's statements that he will focus on Mexico, not foreign policy.

Roberto Madrazo Pintado

Another native of Tabasco, attorney Roberto Madrazo Pintado, was the PRI candidate for president. The son of a prominent PRI leader, he has served as a federal deputy (1976 and 1991-1993), senator (1988-1991), Governor of Tabasco (1994-2000), and national PRI party president (2002-2005). Opinion polls consistently put Madrazo in third place throughout the campaign. Already a divisive candidate within the PRI, his poor showing in polls led some PRI leaders to shift their support to CalderÃ³n or LÃ³pez Obrador while encouraging PRI voters to do the same rather than "waste" votes on Madrazo. On May 30, the PRI expelled 28 leaders who endorsed one of the two leading candidates.

During the campaign, Madrazo pledged to create jobs, improve security, facilitate remittances from the United States to Mexico, modernize the energy sector by permitting joint ventures between PEMEX and private companies, and increase the number of Mexicans who benefit from stable macroeconomic policies and export growth. He proposed shifting public investment to infrastructure and public works and improving linkages between the export sector and the internal market. He supported an immigration accord with the United States and said that more job creation is needed to prevent Mexican emigration. Madrazo also pledged to improve public security by placing federal police forces under a unified command and expanding the authority of the "preventive police" to include the investigation and prosecution of crimes.

Congressional Elections

Mexico has a bicameral legislature comprised of a 500-member Chamber of Deputies and a 128-member Senate. Mexican voters elected a completely new congress on July 2, 2006. Consecutive re-election is prohibited. Deputies are elected to three-year terms with 300 elected by direct vote and 200 proportionally elected from party lists in five 40-member districts. Senators are elected to six-year terms. Each of Mexico's 32 states directly elects three senators; the two from the slate winning the plurality of votes and the first candidate from the second-place list. Another 32 senators are elected by proportional vote from national party lists.

Both the PAN and PRD gained significant representation in the new congress sworn in on September 1, 2006, while the PRI was significantly weakened in both houses. The PRI delegation in the Chamber of Deputies fell from the largest to the third largest; PRI fell to the second largest delegation in the Senate. Although the PAN is the largest party in both houses, it failed to win a majority. Given the tension between the PAN and PRD stemming from the presidential election, some analysts believe the PRI will be influential in the upcoming congress as the PAN delegation seeks additional votes to pass legislation.

Implications for U.S.-Mexico Relations

The United States and Mexico have a multifaceted relationship, with recent emphasis on migration, border security, drug trafficking, trade, and energy policy. President-elect Felipe CalderÃ³n is likely to continue Mexico's advocacy for immigration reform in the United States. Differences over migration policy and border security are likely to continue to strain U.S.-Mexico relations. During the campaign, CalderÃ³n indicated his support for legalization of Mexicans who have been illegally present in the United States for five years. He also opposed construction of additional barriers along the U.S.-Mexican border. In September 2006, President-elect CalderÃ³n charged that the border fence under consideration by the U.S. Congress will be ineffective in combating illegal immigration. In October, the Mexican government officially requested that President Bush veto the Secure Fence Act of 2006 ( H.R. 6061 ) approved by Congress on September 29, 2006, that would authorize construction of a border fence along 700 miles of the U.S.-Mexico border. President Bush is expected to sign the bill and on October 4, 2006, signed the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act for 2007, which provides $1.2 billion to build the fence. CalderÃ³n recently re-emphasized his support for the extradition of drug kingpins to the United States and called for Mexico's political parties to work together to develop legislative and law enforcement solutions to the drug violence that plagues Mexico.

NAFTA stipulates further opening of agricultural trade in 2008, including the sensitive bean and corn crops, causing concern in Mexico about the potentially adverse effects on domestic production. President-elect CalderÃ³n indicated during the campaign that he would address these concerns within the NAFTA framework, in contrast to LÃ³pez Obrador's call to re-open NAFTA negotiations. President-elect CalderÃ³n has also proposed the opening of Mexico's oil industry to private investment.

President-elect Felipe CalderÃ³n pledged to continue the active foreign policy pursued by the Fox administration. During the campaign he expressed hope of restoring Mexico's ambassador to Venezuela. CalderÃ³n also presented himself as an alternative regional influence to Venezuelan President Hugo ChÃ¡vez. His first trip abroad as president-elect, in early October, was to nine Central and South American nations. CalderÃ³n has indicated that he will re-orient Mexico's foreign policy to emphasize its relationships with its southern neighbors.