Environmental Satellites: Strategy Needed to Sustain Critical Climate and Space Weather Measurements
Released: 2010-05-27T00:00:00

Letter

Background

Since the 1960s, the United States has used satellites to observe the earth and its land, oceans, atmosphere, and space environments. Satellites provide a global perspective of the environment and allow observations in areas that may be otherwise unreachable or unsuitable for measurements. Used in combination with ground, sea, and airborne observing systems, satellites have become an indispensable part of measuring and forecasting weather and climate. For example, satellites provide the graphical images used to identify current weather patterns, as well as the data that go into numerical weather prediction models. These models are used to forecast weather 1 to 2 weeks in advance and to issue warnings about severe weather, including the path and intensity of hurricanes. Satellite data are also used to warn infrastructure owners when increased solar activity is expected to affect key assets, including communication satellites or the electric power grid. When collected over time, satellite data can also be used to observe trends and changes in the earth’s climate. For example, these data are used to monitor and project seasonal, annual, and decadal changes in the earth’s temperature, vegetation coverage, and ozone coverage.

Current Environmental Satellite Programs Include Both Operational and Research Satellites

Environmental satellite programs generally fall into two categories: operational satellites and research and development satellites. Operational environmental satellites contribute to weather and climate predictions on a regular basis, and federal agencies sustain them by launching new satellites as older ones reach the end of their useful lives. Alternatively, research and development satellites are designed to test new technologies or to provide insights into environmental science. While there is not a commitment to sustain the capabilities demonstrated on research and development satellites on subsequent missions, these capabilities can be included on operational satellites if they demonstrate the usefulness of a new measurement or the maturity of new technology. Currently, the United States operates a fleet of operational environmental satellites, as well as multiple research and development satellites.

Operational Environmental Satellites

Operational environmental satellites conduct earth observations from space in either a low-earth polar orbit or a geostationary earth orbit. Polar- orbiting satellites circle the earth in an almost north-south orbit within 1,250 miles of the earth, providing global coverage of conditions that affect weather and climate. Each satellite makes about 14 orbits a day. As the earth rotates beneath it, each satellite views the entire earth’s surface twice a day. In contrast, geostationary satellites maintain a fixed position relative to the earth from an orbit of about 22,300 miles in space. Figure 1 describes key characteristics of polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites.

The United States currently operates two operational polar-orbiting meteorological satellite systems: the Polar Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) series, which is managed by NOAA, and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), which is managed by the Air Force. The POES and DMSP programs provide data that are processed to provide graphical weather images and specialized weather products. They also provide the predominant input into numerical weather prediction models, a primary tool for forecasting weather. These satellites also provide data used to monitor environmental phenomena, such as ozone depletion, drought conditions, and energetic particle activity in the near- earth space environment, as well as data sets that are used by researchers to monitor climate change.

Currently, one POES and two DMSP satellites are positioned so that they can observe the earth in early morning, midmorning, and early afternoon polar orbits. In addition, a European satellite, called the Meteorological Operational (MetOp) satellite, provides observations in the midmorning orbit. Together, they ensure that, for any region of the earth, the data provided to users are generally no more than 6 hours old. Figure 2 illustrates the current operational polar satellite configuration.

NOAA, NASA, and DOD are currently developing the next generation of operational polar-orbiting environmental satellites, called NPOESS. This program was planned to converge the POES and DMSP satellite programs into a single program capable of satisfying both civilian and military requirements for earth and space weather, as well as climate monitoring. As currently defined, NPOESS consists of a series of four satellites, as well as a demonstration satellite called the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP). NPP is intended to reduce the risk associated with launching new sensor technologies and to ensure continuity of climate data. The agencies plan to launch NPP in 2011, with the other satellites following at regular intervals to ensure satellite coverage in two orbits through 2026. Due to poor program performance and interagency conflicts over system requirements, the NPOESS program is currently being restructured to allow separate acquisitions by NOAA and DOD. However, it is not yet clear how or when this transition will take place.

In addition to the polar satellite program, NOAA also manages an operational geostationary satellite program, called the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) program. NOAA operates GOES as a two-satellite system that is primarily focused on the United States (see fig. 3). These satellites are uniquely positioned to provide broad, continuously updated coverage of atmospheric and surface conditions on the earth, as well as the space environment surrounding the earth. For example, geostationary satellites observe the development of hazardous weather events, such as hurricanes and severe thunderstorms, and track their movement and intensity to help reduce or avoid major losses of property and life. In addition, the geostationary satellites track space weather variables such as solar X-ray fluctuations and high-energy particles that are used in identifying emerging solar storms.

NOAA is currently developing the next generation geostationary series, called GOES-R. GOES-R is expected to provide satellite data products to users more quickly and to provide better clarity and precision than prior geostationary satellites. It is expected to be a two-satellite system, launching in 2015 and 2017, and is considered critical to the United States’ ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting through 2028.

Research Satellites

In addition to operational polar and geostationary satellites, the United States operates research satellites to better understand scientific earth processes and to develop new technologies. Since the early 1990s, NASA has launched 18 research satellites under its Earth Observing System, and plans to launch 6 more by 2013. These satellites continue to provide global and seasonal earth system measurements, which have provided a better understanding of human impacts on the earth, as well as improved disaster prediction and mitigation technologies. They are used both by NASA’s research communities and by other agencies, including the U.S. Department of Agriculture, for operational and decision-making purposes. NASA is now planning the next generation of research satellites, called its Earth Systematic Missions program. This program consists of three series of satellites to advance understanding of the climate system and climate change. In addition to its earth observation activities, NASA has been working to understand and measure solar activity in the space environment. For example, the observations of solar winds from its Advanced Composition Explorer mission and solar X-ray images from its Solar and Heliospheric Observatory mission are used for both solar research and space weather forecasting.

DOD also develops environmental research satellites in support of its mission when a need is identified. For example, the Navy and others developed the WindSat program to demonstrate new capabilities for measuring the ocean surface wind vectors from space and to demonstrate an instrument that was originally planned for the NPOESS mission. In addition, DOD’s Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellite is expected to develop a capability for detecting and forecasting space weather events that lead to disruptions in communication signals in high-frequency radios and Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites.

Environmental Satellite Data and Products

Environmental satellites gather a broad range of data that are transformed into a variety of products. Satellite sensors observe different bands of radiation wavelengths, called channels, which are used for remotely determining information about the earth’s environment. When first received, satellite data are considered raw data. To make them usable, NOAA, NASA, and DOD operate data processing centers that format the data so that they are time-sequenced and include earth location and calibration information. After formatting, these data are called raw data records. The data centers further process the raw data records into channel-specific data sets, called sensor data records and temperature data records. These data records are then used to derive weather and climate products called environmental data records and climate data records.

Environmental data records generally support near-term weather observations and include a wide range of atmospheric products detailing cloud coverage, temperature, humidity, and ozone distribution; land surface products showing snow cover, vegetation, and land use; ocean products depicting sea surface temperatures, sea ice, and wave height; and characterizations of the space environment. Combinations of these data records (raw, sensor, temperature, and environmental data records) are also used to derive more sophisticated products, including the forecasts that result from weather prediction modeling. In contrast, climate data records identify longer term variations in the climate and include observations of the land, ocean, and atmosphere.

While environmental and climate data products use much of the same data, the two user communities’ needs differ. In order to deliver timely weather forecasts and warnings, meteorologists require the rapid delivery of environmental data. Alternatively, scientists involved in climate monitoring, prediction, and research require accurate, precise, and consistent data over long periods of time. Figure 4 is a simplified depiction of the various stages of environmental satellite data processing, and figure 5 depicts examples of two different weather products. Figure 6 depicts an example of a climate data record.

An Overview of Climate Products and Uses

One subset of satellite-provided environmental weather information is climate data. Satellite-provided climate data are used in combination with ground and ocean observing systems to understand seasonal, annual, and decadal variations in the climate. Satellites provide land observations such as measurements of soil moisture, changes in how land is used, and vegetation growth; ocean observations such as sea levels, sea surface temperature, and ocean color; and atmospheric observations such as greenhouse gas levels (e.g., carbon dioxide), aerosol and dust particles, and moisture concentration. When these data are obtained over long periods of time, scientists are able to use them to determine short- and long-term trends in how the earth’s systems work and how they work together. For example, climate measurements have allowed scientists to better understand the effect of deforestation on how the earth absorbs heat, retains rainwater, and absorbs greenhouse gases. Scientists also use climate data to help predict climate cycles that affect the weather, such as El Niño, and to develop global estimates of food crop production for a particular year or season. Table 1 provides examples of ways in which satellite-provided climate products are used.

An Overview of Space Weather Products and Uses

Another subset of satellite-provided environmental weather information is space weather. Satellite-provided observations of space weather generally describe changes in solar activity in the space environment. Just as scientists use observations of weather that occurs on the earth’s surface and in its atmosphere to develop forecasts, scientists and researchers use space weather observations to detect and forecast solar storms that may be potentially harmful to society. Examples of space weather observations include bursts of solar energy called solar flares, solar winds, geomagnetic activity associated with solar storms, solar X-ray images and fluctuations, and solar ultraviolet images and fluctuations. These activities can adversely impact space assets (such as communication, GPS, and environmental satellites), airplanes flying at high altitudes or over the poles, ground assets (such as the electric energy grid), and the communications infrastructure (including high-frequency radio communications and transmissions between GPS satellites and ground- based receivers). Figure 7 provides an illustration of the key assets that are affected by solar weather and the solar weather activities that could put these assets at risk, while table 2 provides examples of ways in which space weather products and services are used.

Federal Responsibilities for Environmental Satellites, Satellite Data Processing, and Climate and Space Weather Products

Three key federal agencies—NOAA, NASA, and DOD—are responsible for managing environmental satellite programs, processing the collected environmental data into usable climate and space weather products and services, and disseminating the data and products to others. Many other agencies use these data and products to support their missions. For example, the Department of Agriculture uses temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture data and products to inform farmers on what to plant, when to plant, and strategies to employ during the growing season, while the Department of Energy uses space weather information to help determine when the electrical grid could be damaged by solar events. These agencies also participate in one or more federal working groups that coordinate the agencies’ needs for and uses of environmental satellite products. These interagency working groups are overseen by offices within the Executive Office of the President.

Climate Responsibilities

NOAA, DOD, and NASA manage multiple organizations with a diverse set of climate responsibilities. Specifically, NOAA has several organizations with responsibilities for developing and using satellite data to monitor and predict the earth’s climate. These include the following: The National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service manages the development of environmental satellite products. It also has three data centers that archive environmental data and products related to climate, oceans, and geophysical features and disseminate these data and products to the public.

The National Weather Service is responsible for weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and advisories for the United States, its territories, and adjacent waters and ocean areas for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Through its National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Climate Prediction Center, it disseminates products and services that describe the earth’s climate and provides near-term climate predictions.

The Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research has climate responsibilities focusing on understanding causes of global climate change and on improving operational climate forecasting capabilities through its Earth System Research Laboratory and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

Organizations within DOD also have responsibilities for providing climate forecasts that are specifically tailored for military planning and operations. For example, the Air Force Weather Agency is responsible for providing environmental outlooks to support the Air Force and Army, including forecasts of the properties of clouds (such as density or ice content) and ground conditions to support planning for airborne and ground operations. In addition, the Navy’s Naval Oceanographic Office tracks ocean currents for planning ship tracking and missions, and provides outlooks of the acoustical environment for submarines. The Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Command provides environmental outlooks in support of naval operations, including outlooks on coastal and open ocean conditions.

NASA’s Earth Science Division is responsible for advancing the understanding of the earth system and demonstrating new satellite technologies through its environmental research and development satellites. NASA currently demonstrates new measurements and technologies for measuring climate through various satellite and airborne missions, including the Earth Observing System.

In addition to NOAA, DOD, and NASA, the Department of the Interior’s U.S. Geological Survey is responsible for operating the Landsat satellites, distributing the data, and maintaining an archive of Landsat 7 and other remotely sensed data.

Other agencies use climate products in their operations. For example, the Environmental Protection Agency uses sea level data and products to examine the potential societal impacts, adaptation options, and other decisions sensitive to sea level rise in coastal communities, while the Department of Homeland Security’s Federal Emergency Management Agency uses climate research and predictions to help develop disaster preparedness and response plans. Additional processing and product development is done in partnership with universities, nongovernmental organizations, and industry. See appendix II for more information on federal agencies and their climate-related responsibilities.

Space Weather Responsibilities

NOAA, DOD, and NASA also manage organizations with responsibilities for space weather satellites and prediction. NOAA and DOD both obtain satellite and land-based measurements of solar activity and produce operational space weather products for a variety of users. Specifically, NOAA’s National Weather Service manages the Space Weather Prediction Center, which is responsible for continuously monitoring space weather for civilian user communities, and provides official space weather warnings, watches, and alerts. In addition, NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service has a data center that archives environmental data related to space weather and disseminates them to the public.

Complementing NOAA’s responsibilities for civilian space weather forecasts, DOD’s Air Force Weather Agency is responsible for continuously monitoring space weather for defense and intelligence user communities. The Air Force Weather Agency and NOAA products are similar, and the majority of the space weather data they use are the same. However, the Air Force customizes specialized products to provide space situational awareness for its users. Both the Air Force and NOAA work together to ensure that both the civilian and military sectors understand and can respond to changes in the space environment.

NASA conducts space weather research and development activities using environmental satellites. For instance, NASA observes solar wind data from its Advanced Composition Explorer mission and solar X-ray images from its Solar and Heliospheric Observatory mission to better understand the sun and its effects on the earth and solar system. Data from these satellites are used for solar research and are also used by other agencies for operational space weather forecasting, including watches and warnings.

Other federal agencies use space weather products to support their respective missions. For example, the Department of Transportation’s Federal Aviation Administration examines radiation exposure at high altitudes, while the Department of Energy uses observations from space weather satellites to study possible impacts on electrical energy transmission through the energy grid. See appendix II for more information on federal agencies and their space-weather-related responsibilities.

Interagency Coordination of Satellite-Provided Environmental Observations

In addition to agencies with responsibilities for acquiring, processing and disseminating environmental data and information, there are two organizations—the U.S. Group on Earth Observations (USGEO) and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)—that are primarily responsible for coordinating federal efforts with respect to observations of the earth’s environment. The National Space Weather Program serves as the coordinating body for space weather.

USGEO is made up of representatives from federal agencies with a role in earth observations, as well as liaisons from the Executive Office of the President. The group’s responsibilities include developing and coordinating an ongoing process for planning, developing, and managing an integrated U.S. earth-observing system consisting of ground, airborne, and satellite measurements. USGEO reports to the National Science and Technology Council’s Committee on Environment and Natural Resources.

USGCRP consists of representatives from 13 federal departments and agencies, as well as liaisons from the Executive Office of the President and USGEO. Congress established USGCRP in 1990 to coordinate and integrate federal research on changes in the global environment and to discuss its implications for society. USGCRP reports to the National Science and Technology Council’s Committee on Environment and Natural Resources.

The National Space Weather Program is responsible for coordinating federal efforts and leveraging resources with respect to space weather observation. The program consists of representatives from eight federal agencies, who coordinate their activities through NOAA’s Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology.

Appendix III identifies the federal organizations that participate in these interagency coordination groups.

Executive Oversight of Federal Environmental Observations

The Executive Office of the President provides oversight for federal space- based environmental observation. Within the Executive Office of the President, the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and the Council on Environmental Quality carry out these governance responsibilities. In addition, the National Science and Technology Council and its Committee on Environment and Natural Resources provide the Executive Office of the President with executive-level coordination and advice. Table 3 identifies roles and responsibilities of organizations within the Executive Office of the President that provide oversight of federal environmental observation efforts.

Prior GAO Reports Recommended Developing Plans to Restore Cancelled Instruments

In recent years, we have issued a series of reports on the NPOESS and GOES-R satellite programs. Both programs are critical to United States’ ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting and global climate monitoring through the years 2026 and 2028, respectively. However, both of these programs were restructured due to their complexity and growing costs. These restructuring efforts involved removing selected climate and space weather instruments. Specifically, on the NPOESS program, four instruments were removed and four had their capabilities reduced. On the GOES-R program, NOAA removed an advanced instrument that was important to the weather and climate community. In May 2008, we recommended that the agencies develop a long-term strategy for restoring the NPOESS sensors in order to guide short-term decision making and to avoid an ad hoc approach to restoring capabilities. In addition, in April 2009, we recommended that NOAA develop a plan for restoring the advanced GOES-R capabilities that were removed from the program, if feasible and justified.

Federal Agencies Have Not Established Plans to Restore All Capabilities Removed from the NPOESS and GOES-R Programs

Federal agencies have not yet established plans to restore all of the capabilities removed from the NPOESS and GOES-R programs. As originally planned, the NPOESS and GOES-R programs included instruments and products to meet a wide range of user needs through 2026 and 2028, respectively. Specifically, both NPOESS and GOES-R were envisioned to fulfill requirements for weather, space weather, and climate monitoring. However, in 2006, both of these programs were restructured due to growing costs. These restructuring efforts involved removing selected climate and space weather instruments—and, in some cases, replacing them with a less-capable instrument. Table 4 lists the instruments that were removed or degraded.

Since June 2006, the agencies have taken steps to restore selected capabilities that were removed from NPOESS in the near-term; however, they do not yet have plans to restore capabilities for the full length of time covered by the NPOESS program. Specifically, the agencies decided to restore the capabilities of three NPOESS instruments through 2016 or 2021, the capabilities of a fourth instrument through 2018 for NOAA and through 2025 for the Navy, and to accept degraded capabilities in replacing a fifth instrument between 2019 and 2024. The agencies have not yet made any plans to restore the capabilities of a sixth NPOESS instrument, and NOAA has not yet made plans to restore the capabilities of the GOES-R instrument. This leaves gaps in promised capabilities ranging from 1 to 11 years, depending on the instrument. Figure 8 provides a visual summary of plans and gaps in plans for key instruments through 2026.

Both DOD and NOAA officials reiterated their commitment to look for opportunities to restore the capabilities that were removed from NPOESS and GOES-R. However, agency officials acknowledge that they do not have plans to restore the full set of capabilities because of the complexity and cost of developing new satellite programs.

Until the capabilities that were removed from NPOESS and GOES-R are restored, there will be future gaps in key atmospheric measurements, including aerosols and key cloud properties. There will also be future gaps in oceanic measurements, including sea surface height and wave height. These gaps will reduce the accuracy of key climate and space weather products—and could lead to interruptions in the continuity of data needed for accurate climate observations over time. Meteorologists, oceanographers, and climatologists reported that these gaps will seriously impact ongoing and planned earth monitoring activities.

Federal Efforts to Ensure the Long-term Provision of Satellite Climate Data Are Insufficient

For over a decade, the climate community has clamored for an interagency strategy to coordinate agency priorities, budgets, and schedules for environmental satellites over the long term—and the governance structure to implement that strategy. Specifically, in 1999, the National Research Council reported on the need for a comprehensive long-term earth observation strategy and, in 2000, for an effective governance structure that would balance interagency issues and provide authority and accountability for implementing the strategy. The National Research Council has repeated these concerns in multiple reports since then. Similarly, in 1999, the Administrators of NOAA and NASA wrote letters to the White House’s OSTP noting the need for an interagency strategy and the means to implement it. They called for OSTP to work with OMB to better define agency roles and responsibilities and to align a satellite strategy with agency budgets. More recently, in 2008, a strategic policy research center recommended that the United States develop an overall plan for an integrated, comprehensive, and sustained earth observation system and the governance structure to support it.

While progress has been made in developing near-term interagency plans, this initiative is languishing without a firm completion date, and federal efforts to establish and implement a strategy for the long-term provision of satellite data are insufficient. Specifically, in 2005, the National Science and Technology Council’s Committee on Environment and Natural Resources established USGEO to develop an earth observation strategy and coordinate its implementation. Since that time, USGEO assessed current and evolving requirements, evaluated them to determine investment priorities, and drafted the Strategic Assessment Report—a report delineating near-term opportunities and priorities for earth observation from both space and ground. According to agency officials, this report is the first in a planned series, and it was approved by OSTP and multiple federal agencies in May 2009. However, OSTP has not yet forwarded the draft to the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources and the President’s National Science and Technology Council because it is reconsidering whether to revise or move forward with the plan. USGEO officials could not provide a schedule for completing this near-term interagency plan.

This draft report is an important first step in developing a national strategy for earth observations, but it is not sufficient to ensure the long-term provision of data vital to understanding the climate. The draft report integrates different agencies’ requirements and proposes continuing or improving earth observations in 17 separate areas, using both satellite and land-based measuring systems. However, the report does not include costs, schedules, or plans for the long-term provision of satellite data. For example, it does not fully address the capabilities that were removed from the NPOESS and GOES-R missions. While the report notes the importance of continuing current plans to fly the Total Solar Irradiance Sensor on the NPP satellite and the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System sensor on the NPP and first NPOESS satellites, it does not make recommendations for what to do over the long term.

In addition, the federal government lacks a clear process for implementing an interagency strategy. Key offices within the Executive Office of the President with responsibilities for environmental observations, including OSTP and the Council for Environmental Quality, have not established processes or time frames for implementing an interagency strategy— including steps for working with OMB to ensure that agencies’ annual budgets are aligned with the interagency strategy. As a result, even if an interagency strategy was finalized, it is not clear how OSTP and OMB would ensure that the responsibilities identified in the interagency strategy are consistent with agency plans and are funded within agency budgets.

Agency officials cite multiple reasons for the difficulties they have encountered over the last decade in establishing a national interagency plan for long-term earth observations. One issue involves conflicting priorities between and among agencies, including disconnects between the research and operational communities and between the weather and climate communities. Another issue is the lack of agreement on how and when to transition research capabilities to operational satellites—and how to fund them.

Without a long-term interagency strategy for satellite observations, and a means for implementing it, agencies face gaps in satellite data and risk making ad hoc decisions on individual satellites. For example, until recently, NASA’s QuikScat research satellite provided measurements of the effect of wind on ocean surfaces, which were used by the National Weather Service to improve tropical and midlatitude storm warnings and by the National/Naval Ice Center to improve its understanding of Arctic and Antarctic ice environments. However, NOAA does not plan to replace the satellite until at least 2014. This extended gap leaves the organizations that used QuikScat with degraded measurements. As another example, Landsat satellites have provided data on land cover change, vegetation mapping, and wildfire effects for over 35 years. Currently, there are two Landsat satellites in operation, and both are long past their expected life spans. While there is a plan to develop and la the Landsat Data Continuity Mission by June 2013, there is no comm to ensure continuity after that mission. satellite program, there will be a significant gap in land cover images an other important global climate data ranging from water manageme nt to agriculture.

Without Landsat or a similar Until an interagency strategy for earth observation is established, and a clear process for implementing it is in place, federal agencies will continue to procure their immediate priorities on an ad hoc basis, the economic benefits of a coordinated approach to investments in earth observation may be lost, and the continuity of key measurements may be lost. This will hinder our nation’s ability to understand long-term climate changes.

Federal Agencies Lack a Strategy for the Long-term Provision of Space Weather Data

While key federal agencies have taken steps to plan for continued space weather observations in the near term, they lack a strategy for the long- term provision of space weather data. Similar to maintaining satellite- provided climate observations, maintaining space weather observations over the long term is important. The National Space Weather Program, the interagency coordinating body for the United States space weather community, has repeatedly recommended taking action to sustain the space weather observation infrastructure on a long-term basis.

In August 2007, a White House working group called the Future of Land Imaging Interagency Working Group issued A Plan for a U.S. National Land Imaging Program. This report recommended that the Department of the Interior manage future Landsat programs and have NASA develop future satellites. However, this plan has not yet been implemented. experimental space-observing satellites. In addition, at OSTP’s request, the National Space Weather Program reported in 2008 on the impacts for both operations and research of not having NASA’s aging Advanced Composition Explorer or the planned space weather capabilities from the NPOESS program. It subsequently developed, again at the request of OSTP, two reports documenting specific recommendations for the future of space weather, one on what to do about the Advanced Composition Explorer and the other on the replacement of the space weather capabilities removed from the NPOESS program. The program submitted the reports in October and November of 2009, respectively. However, OSTP officials do not have a schedule for approving or releasing the reports.

While the agencies’ short-term actions and the pending reports hold promise, federal agencies do not currently have a comprehensive interagency strategy for the long-term provision of space weather data. Until OSTP releases the reports, it will not be clear whether they provide a clear strategy to ensure the long-term provision of space weather data—or whether the current efforts are simply ad hoc attempts to ensure short- term data continuity. Without a comprehensive long-term strategy for the provision of space weather data, agencies may make ad hoc decisions to ensure continuity in the near term and risk making inefficient decisions on key investments.

Conclusions

Almost 4 years after key climate and space weather instruments were removed from the NPOESS and GOES-R satellite programs, there are still significant gaps in future satellite coverage. While individual agencies have taken steps to restore selected capabilities in the near term, gaps in coverage ranging from 1 to 11 years are expected beginning as soon as 2015. The gaps in satellite coverage are expected to affect the continuity of important climate and space weather measurements, such as our understanding of how weather cycles impact global food production, and when radio and GPS satellite communications are likely to be affected by space weather.

Looking more broadly, despite repeated calls for interagency strategies for the long-term provision of environmental data (both for climate and space weather purposes), our nation still lacks such plans. Efforts to develop even short-term strategies have languished in committees and offices supporting the Executive Office of the President, and there is no schedule for them to be approved or released. Further, even if an interagency strategy for the long-term provision of environmental observations was established, there are not clear processes in place to implement it or align it with individual agencies’ plans and annual budgets. Specifically, key organizations within the Executive Office of the President, including the Office of Science and Technology Policy, the Office of Management and Budget, and the Council on Environmental Quality, lack a coordinated process for ensuring that individual agencies align their plans and budgets to the greater good identified in an interagency plan.

Until the Executive Office of the President establishes comprehensive interagency strategies and internal processes that foster the implementation of these strategies, individual agencies will continue to address their most pressing priorities as they arise and opportunities to effectively and efficiently plan ahead will be lost.

Recommendations for Executive Action

In order to effectively address our country’s need for sustained environmental observations, we recommend that the Assistant to the President for Science and Technology, in collaboration with key Executive Office of the President entities (including the Office of Science and Technology Policy, the Office of Management and Budget, the Council on Environmental Quality, and the National Science and Technology Council), take the following four actions: Establish a firm deadline for the completion and release of three key reports on environmental observations: USGEO’s report on near-term priorities and opportunities in earth observations, called the Strategic Assessment Report; The National Space Weather Program’s report on how to address the loss of the Advanced Composition Explorer capabilities; and The National Space Weather Program’s report on how to address the space weather capabilities that were removed from the NPOESS program.

Direct USGEO to establish an interagency strategy to address the long- term provision of environmental observations from satellites that includes costs and schedules for the satellites, as well as a plan for the relevant agencies’ future budgets.

Establish an ongoing process, with timelines, for obtaining approval of the interagency strategy and aligning it with agency plans and annual budgets.

Direct the National Space Weather Program Council to establish an interagency strategy for the long-term provision of space weather observations.

Agency Comments and Our Evaluation

A senior policy analyst from the Office of Science and Technology Policy/Executive Office of the President provided comments on a draft of this report via e-mail. In addition, we received written comments on a draft of this report from the Secretary of Commerce, who transmitted NOAA’s comments (see app. IV), and NASA’s Associate Administrator for its Science Mission Directorate (see app. V). DOD officials declined to comment on a draft of the report.

The Executive Office of the President did not agree or disagree with our recommendations; however, officials noted that OSTP is currently revising USGEO’s Strategic Assessment Report to update information on launch schedules and on the availability of certain measurements that have changed since completion of the report a year ago. Further, officials agreed that the Strategic Assessment Report is a first step in developing a strategy for earth observations, and noted that they plan to use the report as a basis for meeting congressional reporting requirements directing OSTP to develop a strategy on earth observations. In crafting this strategy, it will be important for OSTP to address long-term interagency needs and to work with OMB to ensure that the long-term plans are aligned with individual agencies’ plans and budgets. If the plan does not include these elements, individual agencies will continue to address only their most pressing priorities, other agencies’ needs may be ignored, and the government may lose the ability to effectively and efficiently address its earth observation needs.

In its comments, NOAA noted that it had completed its actions relative to delivering input to the Executive Office of the President for developing strategies for climate and space weather observations. We agree; it is now up to the Executive Office of the President to establish and implement an interagency strategy for the long-term provision of these observations. The agency also responded to our statement that it had not established plans to restore all of the capabilities that were removed from the GOES-R and NPOESS programs. Regarding GOES-R, NOAA stated that it will continue to evaluate the feasibility and priority of addressing requirements and determine the appropriate means to meet them.

Regarding NPOESS, NOAA noted that, in fiscal year 2009, the agency restored the highest priority climate sensors that were removed from the NPOESS program. NOAA also reported that the fiscal year 2011 President’s Budget Request includes plans to restore additional key climate sensors on JPSS and other satellite programs. However, as discussed in our report, NOAA’s efforts to restore sensors in 2009 addressed only selected near-term needs and did not address the full set of capabilities over the life of the NPOESS program. Further, regarding the fiscal year 2011 President’s Budget Request, at the time of our review the full set of capabilities planned for the JPSS program had not yet been determined. For example, the Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (which was one of the high-priority sensors that was restored to the NPOESS program in fiscal year 2009) will not be included on the JPSS satellite, but could instead be included on another to-be-determined satellite. As noted several times in our report, we focused on the capabilities that were planned for the NPOESS program because plans for JPSS had not yet been finalized. We have ongoing work to examine the JPSS program, which will further evaluate NOAA’s plans as they are solidified. In a final comment, NOAA stated that we did not distinguish between potential data gaps in existing and new capabilities, and suggested that we only use the term “gap” to describe the potential loss of an existing capability. Given that the requirements for the NPOESS programs were developed and validated by multiple agencies nearly a decade ago, and requirements for the GOES-R sensor were revalidated by NOAA in 2007, we believe it is appropriate to view the removal of these requirements as gaps—whether they represent existing or new capabilities.

In its written comments, NASA provided further details on its efforts to advance the understanding of earth systems and Heliophysics through environmental research satellites, and provided clarification on plans for future missions that are included in the fiscal year 2011 President’s Budget Request. The agency also noted that OSTP developed a plan for the future of the land-imaging program, under which NASA would develop future Landsat-like satellites on behalf of the Department of the Interior. However, this plan was established in 2007 and has not yet been funded or implemented. It is not clear that it will be implemented. This situation illustrates that having an approved plan is not enough to ensure that critical satellite capabilities are obtained, and reiterates the need for an ongoing process that aligns interagency strategies with individual agencies’ plans and annual budgets.

OSTP, NOAA, and NASA also provided technical comments on the report, which we incorporated as appropriate.

As agreed with your offices, unless you publicly announce the contents of this report earlier, we plan no further distribution until 30 days from the report date. At that time, we will send copies of this report to interested congressional committees, the Secretary of Commerce, the Secretary of Defense, the Administrator of NASA, the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, and other interested parties. The report also will be available on the GAO Web site at http://www.gao.gov.

If you or your staff members have questions about this report, please contact me at (202) 512-9286 or pownerd@gao.gov. Contact points for our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on the last page of this report. GAO staff who made key contributions to this report are listed in appendix VI.

Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Our objectives were to (1) assess plans to restore capabilities that were originally planned for, but then removed from, the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R) satellites; (2) evaluate the adequacy of federal efforts to establish a strategy for the long- term provision of satellite-provided climate data; and (3) evaluate the adequacy of federal efforts to establish a strategy for the long-term provision of satellite-provided space weather data. To assess plans for restoring capabilities from the NPOESS and GOES-R programs, we compared the original program plans for sensors and products with current plans and identified gaps over time. We also observed monthly senior-level management review meetings, reviewed documentation from those meetings, and interviewed agency officials to obtain information on any changes in program plans.

To evaluate the adequacy of federal efforts to establish a strategy for the long-term provision of satellite-provided climate data, we compared plans developed by the Department of Defense (DOD), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and a draft strategy developed by the Executive Office of the President’s Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and the U.S. Group on Earth Observations for the provision of climate data with recommendations made by the National Research Council and GAO for the development of a long-term strategy. We identified the shortfalls of and challenges to those plans. We also visited NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, Climate Prediction Center, and Earth System Research Laboratory; the Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center and Naval Oceanographic Office; and the Air Force Weather Agency to obtain information on the uses and users of satellite data for climate monitoring and prediction, as well the need for interagency strategic planning for space-based climate observations. We also interviewed relevant agency officials.

To evaluate the adequacy of federal efforts to establish a strategy for the long-term provision of satellite-provided space weather data, we compared DOD, NASA, and NOAA plans for the provision of space weather data to leading practices for the development of a long-term strategy, and we identified the potential shortfalls of and challenges to those plans. We also identified OSTP plans for space weather. We attended a space weather events workshop to determine key issues related to long-term plans for space weather observations. We also visited the Air Force Weather Agency, the Space Weather Prediction Center, and NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center to obtain information on the uses and users of satellite data for space weather monitoring and prediction, as well the need for interagency strategic planning for space weather observations. We also interviewed relevant agency officials.

We conducted our work at NOAA, NASA, DOD, and OSTP facilities in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area. In addition, we conducted work at satellite data processing facilities in Asheville, North Carolina; Monterey, California; Boulder, Colorado; Bay Saint Louis, Mississippi; and Omaha, Nebraska. We selected these facilities because they host key military and civilian users of satellite data for weather, climate, and space weather forecasting. We conducted this performance audit from June 2009 to April 2010, in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives.

Appendix II: Key Federal Organizations with Climate and Space Weather Responsibilities

Multiple agencies have a role in developing or using climate and space weather products. Table 5 lists key federal organizations’ roles with respect to climate observation, while table 6 lists key federal organizations’ roles with respect to space weather observation.

Appendix III: Federal Organizations That Participate in Interagency Coordination Groups

Interagency committees coordinate the interests of the multiple federal agencies whose missions involve environmental monitoring and research. These include the U.S. Global Change Research Program, which coordinates federal climate research efforts; the U.S. Group on Earth Observations, which plans for and coordinates earth observations; and the National Space Weather Program, which coordinates federal space weather monitoring, research, and forecasts. Table 7 identifies federal organizations that participate in these interagency coordination groups.

Appendix IV: Comments from the Department of Commerce

Appendix V: Comments from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Appendix VI: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments

Staff Acknowledgments

In addition to the individual named above, Colleen M. Phillips, Assistant Director; Bill Carrigg; Neil Doherty; Joshua Leiling; Kathleen S. Lovett; Lee McCracken; and Joseph D. Thompson made key contributions to this report.