Force Structure: Capabilities and Cost of Army Modular Force Remain Uncertain
Released: 2006-04-04T00:00:00

Letter

Background

The Army’s conversion to a modular force encompasses the Army’s total force—active Army, Army National Guard, and Army Reserve—and directly affects not only the Army’s combat units, but related command and support organizations. A key to the Army’s new modular force design is embedding within combat brigades battalion-sized, reconnaissance, logistics, and other support units that previously made up parts of division-level and higher-level command and support organizations, allowing the brigades to operate independently. Restructuring these units is a major undertaking because it requires more than just the movement of personnel or equipment from one unit to another. The Army’s new modular units are designed, equipped, and staffed differently than the units they replace; therefore successful implementation of this initiative will require changes such as new equipment and a different mix of skills and occupational specialties among Army personnel. By 2011, the Army plans to have reconfigured its total force—to include active and reserve components and headquarters, combat, and support units—into the modular design. The foundation of the modular force is the creation of modular brigade combat teams—combat maneuver brigades that will have a common organizational design and will increase the rotational pool of ready units. Modular combat brigades will have one of three standard designs—heavy brigade combat team, infantry brigade combat team, and Stryker brigade combat team.

Until it revised its plans in March 2006, the Army had planned to have a total of 77 active component and National Guard modular combat brigades by expanding the existing 33 combat brigades in the active component into 43 modular combat brigades by 2007, and by creating 34 modular combat brigades in the National Guard by 2010 from existing brigades and divisions that have historically been equipped well below requirements. To rebalance joint ground force capabilities the 2006 QDR determined the Army should have a total of 70 modular combat brigades—42 active brigades and 28 National Guard brigades. Also in March 2006, the Army was in the process of revising its modular combat brigade conversion schedule; it now plans to convert its active component brigades by fiscal year 2010 instead of 2007 as previously planned, and convert National Guard brigades by fiscal year 2008 instead of 2010. As of March 2006 the Army had completed the conversion of 19 active component brigades to the modular design and was in the process of converting 2 active and 7 National Guard brigades. Table 1 shows the Army’s schedule as of March 2006 for creating active component and National Guard modular combat brigades.

According to the Army, this larger pool of available combat units will enable it to generate both active and reserve component forces in a rotational manner that will support 2 years at home following each deployed year for active forces. To do this, the Army has created a rotational force generation model in which units rotate through a structured progression of increased unit readiness over time. Units will progress through three phases of operational readiness cycles, culminating in full mission readiness and availability to deploy.

The Army’s objective is for the new modular combat brigades, which will include about 3,000 to 4,000 personnel, to have at least the same combat capability as a brigade under the current division-based force, which range from 3,000 to 5,000 personnel. Since there will be more combat brigades in the force, the Army believes its overall combat capability will be increased as a result of the restructuring, providing added value to combatant commanders. Although somewhat smaller in size, the new modular combat brigades are expected to be as capable as the Army’s existing brigades because they will have different equipment, such as advanced communications and surveillance equipment, and a different mix of personnel and support assets. The Army’s organizational designs for the modular brigades have been tested by its Training and Doctrine Command’s Analysis Center against a variety of scenarios, and the Army has found the new designs to be as capable as the existing division-based brigades in modeling and simulations.

Lack of Clarity in Army’s Cost Estimate for Modularity Limits Decision Makers’ Ability to Weigh Funding Priorities

The Army’s cost estimate for modularity has continued to evolve since our September 2005 report. As we reported, the Army’s cost estimate for transforming its force through fiscal year 2011 increased from $28 billion in the summer of 2004 to $48 billion in the spring of 2005. The latter estimate addressed some of the shortcomings of the initial rough order of magnitude estimate and included lessons learned from operations in Iraq. For example, it included costs of restructuring the entire force, to include 77 brigade combat teams, as well as the creation of support and command units. However, it excluded some known costs. For example, the $48 billion estimate did not include $4.5 billion in construction costs the Army plans to fund through business process engineering efficiencies, which historically have been difficult to achieve. The Army added these costs when it revised its cost estimate in March 2006, bringing the most recent total to $52.5 billion. As shown in table 2, most of the planned funding for modularity—$41 billion, or about 78 percent—will be used to procure equipment, with the remaining funds divided between military construction and facilities and sustainment and training. In addition, Army leaders have recently stated they may seek additional funds after 2011 to procure additional equipment for modular restructuring.

In our September report, we highlighted uncertainties related to force design, equipment, facilities, and personnel that could drive costs higher. Some of these uncertainties have been clarified. For example, we noted that costs in equipment and facilities would increase significantly if the Secretary of Defense decided to add 5 brigades to the Army’s active component to create a total of 48 brigade combat teams—a decision that was scheduled to be made in fiscal year 2006. The decision about the number of brigades was made based on the QDR. Instead of a 5 brigade combat team increase, the report stated that the Army would create a total of 42 such brigades in the active component, a 1 brigade combat team reduction from the Army’s plan. In addition, the number of National Guard brigade combat teams was reduced from 34 to 28. In sum, the QDR decisions reduced the number of planned brigade combat teams from 77 to 70. However, Army officials stated that the Army plans to fully staff and equip these units. Moreover, Army officials told us that the Army plans to use resources freed up by this decision to increase support units in the reserve component and to fund additional special operations capability in the active component. We also noted in our September 2005 report that the Army had not completed designs for all the support units at the time the estimate was set. According to Army officials, these designs have been finalized. Despite these refinements to the design and changes to the planned number of combat and support brigades, the Army has not made revisions to its $52.5 billion cost estimate or funding plan based on these changes.

Moreover, as I will discuss shortly, uncertainty remains in the Army’s evolving strategy for equipping its modular combat brigades. As a result, based on discussions with Army officials, it remains unclear to what extent the $41 billion will enable the Army to equip units to levels in the Army’s tested design. In addition, it is not clear how the Army will distinguish between modularity, costs associated with restoring equipment used in operations, or modernizing equipment. In estimating its equipment costs for modularity, the Army assumed that some equipment from ongoing operations would remain in operational condition for redistribution to new and restructured modular units. To the extent equipment is not returned from operations at assumed rates, it is not clear how this will affect equipping levels of modular units or how the Army would pay for such equipment. As a result, the Secretary of Defense and Congress may not be in a sound position to weigh competing demands for funding and assess whether the Army will be able to fully achieve planned capabilities for the modular force by 2011 within the planned funding level.

Although the Army Is Well Under Way in Its Active Modular Combat Brigade Conversions, Its Ability to Meet Its Equipping Goals by 2011 Is Unclear

The Army has made progress in creating active component modular combat brigades, but it is not meeting its equipping goals for these brigades and is still developing its overall equipping strategy, which raises concerns about the extent to which brigades will be equipped in the near and longer term. While active brigades are receiving significant amounts of new equipment, Army officials indicated that they may seek additional funding for equipment beyond 2011. Moreover, brigades will initially lack key equipment, including items that provide enhanced intelligence, situational awareness, and network capabilities needed to help the Army achieve its planned capabilities of creating a more mobile, rapidly deployable, joint, expeditionary force. In addition, because of existing equipment shortages, the Army National Guard will likely face even greater challenges providing the same types of equipment for its 28 planned modular combat brigades. To mitigate equipment shortages, the Army plans to provide priority for equipment to deploying active component and National Guard units but allocate lesser levels of remaining equipment to other nondeploying units based on their movement through training and readiness cycles. However, the Army has not yet determined the levels of equipment it needs to support this strategy, assessed the operational risk of not fully equipping all units, or provided to Congress detailed information about these plans so it can assess the Army’s current and long-term equipment requirements and funding plans.

Army Facing Difficulty Meeting Its Goals for Equipping Active Modular Combat Brigades

The Army faces challenges meeting its equipping goals for its modular brigades both in the near and longer term. As of February 2006, the Army had converted 19 modular combat brigades in the active force. According to the Army Campaign Plan, which established time frames and goals for the modular force conversions, each of these units individually is expected to have on hand at least 90 percent of its required major equipment items within 180 days after its new equipment requirements become effective. We reviewed data from several brigades that had reached the effective date for their new equipment requirements by February 2006, and found that all of these brigades reported significant shortages of equipment 180 days after the effective date of their new equipment requirements, falling well below the equipment goals the Army established in its Campaign Plan. Additionally, the Army is having difficulty providing equipment to units undergoing their modular conversion in time for training prior to operational deployments, and deploying units often do not receive some of their equipment until after their arrival in theater. At the time of our visits, officials from three Army divisions undergoing modular conversion expressed concern over the lack of key equipment needed for training prior to deployment.

The Army already faced equipment shortages before it began its modular force transformation and is wearing out significant quantities in Iraq, which could complicate plans for fully equipping new modular units. By creating modular combat brigades with standardized designs and equipment requirements, the Army believed that it could utilize more of its total force, thereby increasing the pool of available and ready forces to meet the demands of sustained rotations and better respond to an expected state of continuous operations. Also, by comparably equipping all of these units across the active component and National Guard, the Army further believes it will be able to discontinue its practice of allocating limited resources, including equipment, based on a system of tiered readiness, which resulted in lower-priority units in both active and reserve components having significantly lower levels of equipment and readiness than the higher priority units. However, because of the need to establish a larger pool of available forces to meet the current high pace of operational commitments, the Army’s modular combat brigade conversion schedule is outpacing the planned acquisition or funding for some equipment requirements. The Army has acknowledged that funding does not match its modular conversion schedule and that some units will face equipment shortages in the early years of transformation. The Army says it will manage these shortfalls; however, according to Army officials, the Army may continue to seek modular force equipment funding beyond 2011 and may exceed its $52.5 billion modularity cost estimate.

Equipment Shortages Include Key Equipment the Army Identified as Essential for Achieving Modular Force Capabilities

Active modular combat brigades will initially lack required numbers of some of the key equipment that Army force design analyses determined essential for achieving their planned capabilities. Army force designers identified a number of key organizational, personnel, and equipment enablers they determined must be present for the modular combat brigades to be as lethal as the division-based brigades they are replacing, achieve their expected capabilities, and function as designed. Essential among these is the equipment that will enable the modular combat brigades to function as stand-alone, self-sufficient tactical forces, capable of conducting and sustaining operations on their own if required without also deploying large numbers of support forces. They include battle command systems to provide modular combat brigades the latest command and control technology for improved situational awareness; advanced digital communications systems to provide secure high-speed communications links; and advanced sensors, providing modular combat brigades their own intelligence-gathering, reconnaissance, and target acquisition capabilities.

We reviewed several command and control, communications, and reconnaissance systems to determine the Army’s plans and timelines for providing active modular combat brigades some of the key equipment they need to achieve their planned capabilities and function as designed. According to Army officials responsible for managing the distribution and fielding of equipment, in 2007 when 38 of 42 active component modular combat brigades are to complete their modular conversions, the Army will not have all of this equipment onhand to meet the new modular force design requirements. These shortfalls are due to a range of reasons, but primarily because the modular conversion schedule is outpacing the planned acquisition or funding. For example, the Army does not expect to meet until at least 2012 its modular combat brigade requirements for Long- Range Advanced Scout Surveillance Systems, an advanced visual sensor that provides long-range surveillance capability to detect, recognize, and identify distant targets. In addition, because of an Army funding decision, the Army only plans to meet 85 percent of its requirements across the force for Single Channel Ground and Airborne Radio Systems, a command and control network radio system that provides voice and data communications capability in support of command and control operations. Finally, a recent DOD decision could set back the Army’s schedule for the acquisition of Joint Network Node, a key communications system that provides secure high-speed computer network connection for data transmission down to the battalion level, including voice, video, and e- mail. According to Army officials, DOD recently decided to require the Army to have Joint Network Node undergo developmental and operational testing prior to further acquisition, which could delay equipping active and National Guard modular combat brigades.

National Guard Faces Significant Equipping Challenges

In addition to the challenges the Army faces in providing active component modular combat brigades the equipment necessary for meeting expected capabilities, the Army will face greater challenges meeting its equipping requirements for its 28 planned National Guard combat brigades. The Army’s modular force concept is intended to transform the National Guard from a strategic standby force to a force that is to be organized, staffed, and equipped comparable to active units for involvement in the full range of overseas operations. As such, Guard combat units will enter into the Army’s new force rotational model in which, according to the Army’s plans, Guard units would be available for deployment 1 year out of 6 years. However, Guard units have previously been equipped at less than wartime readiness levels (often at 65 to 75 percent of requirements) under the assumption that there would be sufficient time for Guard forces to obtain additional equipment prior to deployment. Moreover, as of July 2005, the Army National Guard had transferred more than 101,000 pieces of equipment from nondeploying units to support Guard units’ deployments overseas. As we noted in our report last year on National Guard equipment readiness, National Guard Bureau officials estimated that the Guard’s nondeployed units had only about 34 percent of their essential warfighting equipment as of July 2005 and had exhausted inventories of 220 critical items. Although the Army says it plans to invest $21 billion into equipping and modernizing the Guard through 2011, Guard units will start their modular conversions with less and much older equipment than most active units. This will add to the challenge the Army faces in achieving its plans and timelines for equipping Guard units at comparable levels to active units and fully meeting the equipping needs across both components. Moreover, the Army National Guard believes that even after the Army’s planned investment, the Army National Guard will have to accept risk in certain equipment, such as tactical wheeled vehicles, aircraft, and force protection equipment.

To Mitigate Equipment Shortages, Army Plans to Rotate Equipment among Units Based on Their Movement through Training, Readiness, and Deployment Cycles

Because the Army realized that it would not have enough equipment in the near term to simultaneously equip modular combat brigades at 100 percent of their requirements, the Army is developing a new equipping strategy as part of its force rotation model; however, it has not yet determined equipping requirements for this new strategy. Under the force rotation model, the Army would provide increasing amounts of equipment to units as they move through training phases and near readiness for potential deployment so they would be ready to respond quickly if needed with fully equipped forces. The Army believes that over time, equipping units in a rotational manner will enable it to better allocate available equipment and help manage risk associated with specific equipment shortages.

Under this strategy, brigades will have three types of equipment sets—a baseline set, a training set, and a deployment set. The baseline set would vary by unit type and assigned mission and the equipment it includes could be significantly reduced from the amount called for in the modular brigade design. Training sets would include more of the equipment units will need to be ready for deployment, but units would share the equipment that would be located at training sites throughout the country. The deployment set would include all equipment needed for deployment, including theater- specific equipment, high-priority items provided through operational needs statements, and equipment from Army prepositioned stock. With this cyclical equipping approach, the Army believes it can have from 12 to 16 active combat brigades and from 3 to 4 Army National Guard combat brigades equipped and mission ready at any given time.

However, the Army has not yet determined equipping requirements for units as they progress through the rotational cycles. While the Army has developed a general proposal to equip both active and Army National Guard units according to the readiness requirements of each phase of the rotational force model, it has not yet detailed the types and quantities of items required in each phase. We noted in our October 2005 report on Army National Guard equipment readiness that at the time of the report, the Army was still developing the proposals for what would be included in the three equipment sets and planned to publish the final requirements in December 2005. However, as of March 2006 the Army had not decided on specific equipping plans for units in the various phases of its force rotation model.

Because the Army is early in the development of its rotational equipping strategy and has not yet defined specific equipping plans for units as they progress through rotational cycles, the levels of equipment the deploying and nondeploying units would receive are currently not clear. Therefore, it is difficult to assess the risk associated with decreasing nondeploying units’ readiness to perform other missions or the ability of units in the earlier stages of the rotational cycle to respond to an unforeseen crisis if required.

The Army Faces Challenges in Managing Personnel Requirements for Its New Modular Force Structure

The Army has made some progress meeting modular personnel requirements in the active component by shifting positions from its noncombat force to its operational combat force but faces significant challenges reducing its overall end strength while increasing the size of its modular combat force. The Army plans to reduce its current end strength of 512,400, based upon a temporary authorized increase, to 482,400 soldiers by 2011 in order to help fund the Army’s priority acquisition programs. Simultaneously, the Army plans to increase the number of soldiers in its combat force from approximately 315,000 to 355,000 in order to meet the increased personnel requirements of its new larger modular force structure. The Army plans to utilize several initiatives to reduce and realign the Army with the aim of meeting these planned manpower levels.

For example, the Army has experienced some success in converting nonoperational military positions into civilian positions, thereby freeing up soldiers to fill modular combat brigades’ requirements. During fiscal year 2005, the Army converted approximately 8,000 military positions to civilian-staffed positions within the Army’s institutional force. However, officials believe additional conversions will be more challenging to achieve. In addition to its success with the military-to-civilian conversions, the Army has been given statutory authority to reduce active personnel support to the National Guard and Reserves by 1,500. However, the Army must still eliminate additional positions, utilizing these and other initiatives, so it can reduce its overall end strength while filling requirements for modular units.

While the Army is attempting to reduce end strength and realign positions to the combat force via several initiatives, it may have difficulty meeting its expectations for some initiatives. For example, the Army expected that the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) decisions of 2005 could free up approximately 2,000 to 3,000 positions in the institutional Army, but the Army is revisiting this assumption based upon updated manpower levels at the commands and installations approved for closure and consolidation. Army officials believe they will be able to realign some positions from BRAC, but it is not clear whether the reductions will free up 2,000 to 3,000 military personnel. In the same vein, Army officials expected to see reductions of several hundred base support staff resulting from restationing forces currently overseas back to garrisons within the United States. However, Army officials are still attempting to determine if the actual savings will meet the original assumptions.

In addition, the Army’s new modular force structure increases requirements for military intelligence specialists, but according to Army officials the Army will not be able to fully meet these requirements. The modular force requires the Army to adjust the skill mix of its operational force by adding 8,400 active component intelligence specialist positions to support its information superiority capability—considered a key enabler of modular force capabilities. However, the Army plans to fill only about 57 percent of these positions by 2013 in part because of efforts to reduce overall end strength. According to Army officials, despite these shortfalls, intelligence capability has improved over that of the previous force; however, shortfalls in filling intelligence requirements have stressed intelligence specialists with a high tempo of deployments. However, since intelligence was considered a key enabler of the modular design—a component of the new design’s improved situational awareness—it is unclear how this shortage in planned intelligence capacity will affect the overall capability of modular combat brigades.

If the Army is unable to transfer enough active personnel to its combat forces while simultaneously reducing its overall end strength, it will be faced with a difficult choice. The Army could accept increased risk to its operational units or nonoperational units that provide critical support, such as training. Alternatively, the Army could ask DOD to seek an end strength increase and identify funds to pay for additional personnel. However, DOD is seeking to reduce end strength in all the services to limit its personnel costs and provide funds for other priorities.

The Army Has Objectives and Time Frames for Modularity but Lacks Performance Metrics to Measure Progress

The Army lacks a comprehensive and transparent approach to effectively measure its progress against stated modularity objectives, assess the need for further changes to its modular unit designs, and monitor implementation plans.

Army Lacks Performance Metrics to Measure the Results of Modularity

GAO and DOD, among others, have identified the importance of establishing objectives that can be translated into measurable, results- oriented metrics, which in turn provide accountability for results. In a 2003 report we found that the adoption of a results-oriented framework that clearly establishes performance goals and measures progress toward those goals was a key practice for implementing a successful transformation. DOD has also recognized the need to develop or refine metrics so it can measure efforts to implement the defense strategy and provide useful information to senior leadership.

The Army considers the Army Campaign Plan to be a key document guiding the modular restructuring. The plan provides broad guidelines for modularity and other program tasks across the entire Army. However, modularity-related metrics within the plan are limited to a schedule for creating modular units and an associated metric of achieving unit readiness goals for equipment training and personnel by certain dates after unit creation. Moreover, a 2005 assessment by the Office of Management and Budget identified the total number of brigades created as the only metric the Army has developed for measuring the success of its modularity initiative. Another key planning document, the 2005 Army Strategic Planning Guidance, identified several major expected advantages of modularity, including an increase in the combat power of the active component force by at least 30 percent, an increase in the rotational pool of ready units by at least 50 percent, the creation of a deployable joint- capable headquarters, a force design upon which the future network- centric developments can be readily applied, and reduced stress on the force through a more predictable deployment cycle. However, these goals have not translated into outcome-related metrics that are reported to provide decision makers a clear status of the modular restructuring as a whole. Army officials stated that unit creation schedules and readiness levels are the best available metrics for assessing modularity progress because modularity is a reorganization encompassing hundreds of individual procurement programs that would be difficult to collectively assess in a modularity context.

While we recognize the complexity of the modular restructuring, we also note that without clear definitions of metrics, and periodic communication of performance against these metrics, the Secretary of Defense and Congress will have difficulty assessing the impact of refinements and enhancements to the modular design, such as changes in the number of modular combat and support brigades reported in the QDR and any changes in resource requirements that may occur as a result of these changes.

Army Lacks a Long-term Plan for Comprehensively Evaluating Modular Designs

In fiscal year 2004, TRADOC’s Analysis Center concluded that the modular brigade combat team designs would be more capable than division-based units based on an integrated and iterative analysis employing computer- assisted exercises, subject matter experts, and senior observers. This analysis culminated in the approval of modular brigade-based designs for the Army. The assessment employed performance metrics such as mission accomplishment, units’ organic lethality, and survivability, and compared the performance of variations on modular unit designs against the existing division-based designs. The report emphasized that the Chief of Staff of the Army had asked for “good enough” prototype designs that could be quickly implemented, and the modular organizations assessed were not the end of the development effort.

Since these initial design assessments, the Army has been assessing implementation and making further adjustments in designs and implementation plans through a number of venues, to include unit readiness reporting on personnel, equipment, and training; modular force coordination cells to assist units in the conversion process; modular force observation teams to collect lessons during training; and collection and analysis teams to assess units’ effectiveness during deployment.

TRADOC has approved some design change recommendations and has not approved others. For example, TRADOC analyzed a Department of the Army proposal to reduce the number of Long-Range Advanced Scout Surveillance Systems, but recommended retaining the higher number in the existing design in part because of decreases in units’ assessed lethality and survivability with the reduced number of surveillance systems.

Army officials maintain that ongoing assessments provide sufficient validation that the modularity concept works in practice. However, these assessments do not provide a comprehensive evaluation of the modular design as a whole. Further, the Army does not plan to conduct a similar overarching analysis to assess the modular force capabilities to perform operations across the full spectrum of potential conflict. In November 2005, we reported that methodically testing, exercising, and evaluating new doctrines and concepts is an important and established practice throughout the military, and that particularly large and complex issues may require long-term testing and evaluation that is guided by study plans. We believe the evolving nature of the design highlights the importance of planning for broad-based evaluations of the modular force to ensure the Army is achieving the capabilities it intended, and to provide an opportunity to make course corrections if needed. For example, one controversial element of the design was the decision to include two maneuver battalions instead of three in the brigade combat teams.

TRADOC’s 2004 analysis noted that the brigade designs with the two maneuver battalion organization had reduced versatility compared to the three maneuver battalion design, and cited this as one of the most significant areas of risk in the modular combat brigade design. Some defense experts, to include a current division commander and several retired Army generals, have expressed concerns about this aspect of the modular design. In addition, some of these experts have expressed concerns about whether the current designs have been sufficiently tested and whether they provide the best mix of capabilities to conduct full- spectrum operations. In addition, the Army has recently completed designs for support units and headquarters units. Once the Army gets more operational experience with the new modular units, it may find it needs to make further adjustments to its designs. Without another broad-based evaluation, the Secretary of Defense and congressional leadership will lack visibility into the capabilities of the brigade combat teams as they are being organized, staffed, and equipped.

Concluding Remarks

The fast pace, broad scope, and cost of the Army’s restructuring to a modular force present considerable challenges for the Army, particularly as it continues to be heavily involved in fighting the Global War on Terrorism. These factors pose challenges to Congress as well to provide adequate oversight of the progress being made on achieving modularity goals and of funds being appropriated for this purpose. In this challenging environment, it is important for the Army to clearly establish and communicate its funding priorities and equipment and personnel requirements and assess the risks associated with its plans. Moreover, it is important for the Army to clearly establish a comprehensive long-term approach for its modular restructuring that reports not only a schedule of creating modular units, but measures of its progress toward meeting its goal of creating a more rapidly deployable, joint, expeditionary force. Without such an approach, the Secretary of Defense and Congress will not have the information needed to weigh competing funding priorities and monitor the Army’s progress in its over $52 billion effort to transform its force.

Mr. Chairman and members of the subcommittee, this concludes my prepared remarks. I would be happy to answer any questions you may have.

Contacts and Acknowledgments

For future questions about this statement, please contact Janet St. Laurent at (202) 512-4402. Other individuals making key contributions to this statement include Gwendolyn Jaffe, Assistant Director; Margaret Best; Alissa Czyz; Christopher Forys; Kevin Handley; Joah Iannotta; Harry Jobes; David Mayfield; Sharon Pickup; Jason Venner; and J. Andrew Walker.

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