2010 Census: Communications Campaign Has Potential to Boost Participation
Released: 2009-03-23T00:00:00

Letter

Background

Although the Bureau goes to great lengths to conduct an accurate count, some degree of coverage error in the form of persons missed or counted more than once is inevitable. Historically, undercounts have plagued the census, although Bureau efforts to evaluate count accuracy have indicated that undercounts have generally diminished since 1940. For the 2000 Census, for the first time in its history, the Bureau reported a slight net overcount of approximately 0.5 percent or about 1.3 million people. However, as shown in figure 1, coverage errors are not always evenly distributed through the population. For example, the Bureau reported an overcount of non-Hispanic Whites, and an undercount of non-Hispanic Blacks. Figure 1 also shows how the Bureau made strides in reducing the undercount in the 2000 Census compared to 1990.

Participation in the census, as measured by the mail return rate, also affects the accuracy of census data. The Bureau calculates mail return rates as the percentage of questionnaires the Bureau receives from occupied housing units in the mail-back universe. Although the Bureau attempts to count individuals who fail to mail back their census forms during a subsequent operation called nonresponse follow-up, high mail return rates are critical to quality data. A Bureau evaluation of the 2000 Census found that questionnaires returned by mail tend to be more accurate than those obtained during nonresponse follow-up. Higher mail return rates also help save considerable taxpayer dollars, since a questionnaire returned by mail obviates the need for enumerators to make costly in-person visits to households to collect information.

The Bureau designed its Integrated Communications Campaign to help increase census participation. The campaign’s objectives are to raise the mail response rate, reduce the workload in follow-up operations, and improve cooperation with enumerators. Combined these efforts could help reduce the undercount and thus enhance the overall accuracy of the census.

In September 2007, the Bureau awarded its communications contract to DraftFCB, a communications firm that will orchestrate its key components. The campaign includes the following milestones (see table 1).

DraftFCB delivered its final communications plan, which includes a specific focus on undercounted populations, in December 2008. As one example, the contractor worked with the Bureau to segment the population into distinct groups or “clusters” using socioeconomic, demographic, and other data from the 2000 Census that are correlated with a person’s likelihood to participate in the census. Each cluster was given a hard-to-count score, and the Bureau’s communications efforts are to be targeted to those clusters with the highest scores. The four clusters with the highest hard-to-count scores made up 14 percent of the nation’s occupied housing units based on data from the 2000 Census, and included the following demographic characteristics: renters, immigrants, non- English speakers, persons without higher education, persons receiving public assistance, and persons who are unemployed.

The campaign strategy will be based on the theme “It’s in Our Hands” and will target the clusters mentioned above. According to the Bureau, this approach reflects a marketplace trend where communications are becoming more two-way or participatory, and can be seen, for example, in people creating their own content on the World Wide Web. The goal of the strategy is to encourage personal ownership and involvement that spreads the word about the census. Further, the generic theme will be tailored to specific groups. For example, outreach targeted to families might carry the message, “The education of our children. It’s in our hands,” while the economically disadvantaged might receive, “The power to matter. It’s in our hands.”

Although the effects of the Bureau’s communication efforts are difficult to measure, the Bureau reported some positive results from its 2000 Census marketing efforts with respect to raising awareness of the census. For example, four population groups—non-Hispanic Blacks, non-Hispanic Whites, Asians, and Native Hawaiians—indicated that they were more likely to return the census form after the 2000 Census partnership and marketing program than before its onset. However, a Bureau evaluation demonstrated a limited linkage between the partnership and marketing efforts and improvements in actual census mail return behavior for these or other groups. Put another way, while the Bureau’s marketing activities might raise awareness of the census, a remaining challenge is motivating a specific behavior, namely completing and returning a census questionnaire.

Key Practices Are Helping to Enhance the Effectiveness of the Partnership Program

To help promote the census and convince people to respond, the Bureau plans to partner with state, local, and tribal governments; religious, community, and social service organizations; and private businesses. The program stems from the Bureau’s recognition that “trusted voices” representing organizations with high credibility in a particular community could help convince otherwise reluctant individuals to participate in the census. According to the Bureau, it partnered with around 140,000 organizations during the 2000 Census.

The program will be implemented largely by partnership specialists who are to reach out to key government and community leaders and gain their commitment to support the census. Other partnership staff include graphic designers, media specialists, and clerical employees. The Bureau had initially planned to hire 680 partnership staff for the 2010 Census, and achieved that level in January 2009. However, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 provided additional funding that allowed for the Bureau to hire around 2,000 additional partnership staff, and the Bureau plans to ramp up to this new level by June 2009. By comparison, for the 2000 Census, the Bureau hired around 600 partnership staff. The additional staffing levels will help the Bureau better support the partners’ efforts, and help address concerns expressed by some local census office managers following the 2000 Census that the partnership specialists were spread too thin.

According to the Bureau, it will allocate the partnership staff among and within the Bureau’s 12 regions using a formula that incorporates the hard- to-count score, as well as other data, including population size, geographic information, language needs, and local knowledge. Officials emphasized that they are using census data to focus resources on hard-to-count populations.

In our previous work, we highlighted best practices for both the Bureau and partners that appeared to be key to successful engagements. In addition to these best practices we also included several recommendations aimed at making the partnership program more accountable and performance-oriented—all of which the Bureau implemented. Best practices for partners outlined in our previous work include (1) identifying “census champions” or advocates who will actively support the census and encourage others to do so, (2) integrating census- related efforts into partners’ existing activities and events, and (3) leveraging resources by working with other partners and customizing census promotional materials to better resonate with local populations. Best practices for the Bureau include (1) providing adequate and timely information, guidance, and other resources to local partners on how they can support the census; (2) maintaining open communication with partners; and (3) encouraging the early involvement of partners in census activities.

While it is premature to obtain a complete picture of how our best practices have been used thus far, to date it appears that the Bureau has incorporated some of the best practices we identified in the design and early implementation of the 2010 program. For example, with respect to obtaining early involvement of partners, the Bureau hired a core of 120 partnership staff in mid-2008 who, among other activities, secured early commitments with state, local, and tribal governments; as well as with various community organizations. The Bureau reports that it has obtained partnership agreements with over 10,000 organizations as of February 2009.

Moreover, as noted above, according to the Bureau, the full complement of 2,680 partnership staff should be aboard by June 2009. By comparison, for the 2000 Census, the full complement of partnership staff—around a third of the roughly 600 hired—did not come aboard until fiscal year 2000, with just a few months remaining until census day. The near quadrupling of the planned size of the partnership staff could help the Bureau expand its outreach efforts. However, it will be important for the Bureau to have in place the appropriate management infrastructure to hire, train, organize, deploy, and supervise the additional personnel, as well as to ensure that guidance, information, and other material provided to partners are communicated in a clear and coordinated manner.

In addition to the paper-based promotional materials that will be available for use by all partners through Bureau staff, the Bureau plans to use the Internet to better communicate with partners and disseminate material and information. The Bureau expects this to be a significant enhancement and far more efficient than the strategy employed in 2000, which relied solely on paper-based mailings and hand-delivery of materials. For example, the Bureau plans to mass e-mail newsletters and other information to partners, and has set up a “partnership and communications area” on its Web site. Partners can use this portal to receive updates and the latest program information. Likewise, Bureau staff can use the Internet to contact and provide newsletters, promotional materials and other forms of information to national organizations directly rather than through a contractor as was done in 2000. The Bureau expects that national organizations will in turn share the information and materials with their local affiliates.

At the same time, if the Bureau shifts too much responsibility for sharing and reproducing materials to its partners, the partners could see it as a burden akin to an unfunded mandate. Indeed, local groups may not have the budget, staff, or time to execute the Bureau’s partnership efforts. The Bureau received this type of feedback from small rural counties following the 2000 Census.

Importantly, the Bureau will need timely information to track and monitor progress of partnership activities. For 2010, the Bureau introduced a new system, the Integrated Partner Contact Database to track and monitor activities of partner organizations. The database became available in January 2009 and, according to the Bureau, includes real-time information on the number of partner organizations, populations served, demographics, value added contributions, and constituent reach. The Bureau believes this will enable it to evaluate the partnerships in real time and redirect or reallocate staff as needed. Bureau officials have noted that the 2010 partnership tracking system is an improvement over the 2000 system, which was cumbersome and not user-friendly.

That said, as the Bureau monitors the progress of the partnership efforts, it will be important for the Bureau to develop specific performance metrics linked to the goals of the partnership program and the census itself. In contrast, according to a former senior Bureau official who was responsible for the 2000 partnership program, success was based more on the number of partnership agreements secured rather than the quality of work the partners performed.

The Bureau Updated Its Paid Media and Public Relations Strategy to Meet a Changing Media Environment

The Bureau will use numerous paid media sources, such as TV, radio, the Internet, and magazines, to reach individuals from all clusters and ethnic audiences. The Bureau plans to devote 55 percent of its advertising resources to national media, which provide the broadest reach, and 45 percent to local media, which better target specific hard-to-count communities. The role of the public relations effort, which is to include news releases, media briefings, special events, podcasts, and blogs, is to support all aspects of the census.

Bureau officials indicated that technological changes and society’s evolving media habits prompted the Bureau to update media strategies employed in 2000 so as to be effective for 2010. For example, there is far greater access to the Internet, social networks, blogs, satellite radio, podcasts and Web-enabled phones than in 2000; some of these did not exist at all. The Bureau believes these new forms of digital media represent new ways to educate the public about the census. Last fall, the Bureau completed market research to gain an understanding of people’s feelings about the census and the factors that inspire or hinder participation. According to the Bureau, the research will help it determine which communication medium works best for different ethnic groups.

The Bureau will also retain greater control of its paid advertisements so that they can be shared with other organizations. In 2000, a number of entities, such as state and local governments and private organizations, wanted to use census ads but were unable to because the Bureau only retained limited use of its licensed advertising content. As a result, ads with similar content had to be purchased by partners for their use.

Additionally, the Bureau plans to create some of its informational material, including posters, flyers, and brochures, as electronic templates. This will enable the Bureau’s 12 regional offices to easily change out photos and languages that better suit a particular area. Partnership materials are to be available in 19 languages and advertising materials are to be available in 14 languages.

One of the Bureau’s recent challenges is getting promotional materials developed and distributed to regions. The Bureau has experienced delays in procurements for its promotional items because it is encountering difficulty in identifying small and minority-owned businesses that have the capacity to produce large quantities of printed materials. The Bureau is revising its plans and noted that the delays have not significantly affected its ability to deliver promotional materials to regional staff.

Census in Schools Program Will Be Targeted toward Younger Students

The goal of the Census in Schools program is to improve participation in the census by giving the schools lesson plans and teaching materials to support existing curricula so that (1) the students can be introduced to the purpose and importance of the census, and (2) the students will take home information about the census. The Bureau believes that weaving information about the census as well as census data into lesson plans helps get the message home to parents and guardians that answering the census is important and confidential.

For the 2010 Census, the Bureau plans to reduce the Census in Schools budget because they believe they can leverage materials developed in 2000 and better target its efforts to students. In 2000, the Census in Schools budget was $17 million, and for 2010, the Bureau plans to spend $11.3 million. According to Bureau officials, the reduced funding will not significantly affect the program since the Bureau will use previously developed materials thereby saving on development costs and making more of the materials available electronically through the Bureau’s Web site rather than providing printed copies. Similar to what was noted earlier, however, the level of resources schools may need to disseminate material is not clear, and it will be important that the schools do not perceive this approach as an economic burden.

For 2010, the Bureau has contracted with Scholastic Publishing to develop lesson plans for schools nationwide. According to Bureau officials some stakeholders have expressed concern because the program is not as extensive as it was in 2000. However, the Bureau reduced the goal of the number of participating schools based on its conclusion following the 2000 census that the program is most effective and receives the greatest return on investment in hard-to-count areas and with younger grades (kindergarten through 8th).

Stimulus Funds Provide Additional Money for Outreach to Hard-to-Count Populations, but Planning Is Not Yet Complete

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 provided $1 billion in funding for the 2010 Decennial Census. The conference report accompanying this legislation, directed the Bureau to spend up to $250 million for the partnership program and outreach to “minority communities and hard-to-reach populations.” As noted above, the Bureau has said that it will use the stimulus funds to recruit as many as 2,000 additional partnership staff this year (costing around $120 million) and expand advertising, especially in areas with historically low mail response rates (costing around $100 million). The Bureau is making plans for how to allocate the remaining funding.

To date, a fraction of the money for the communications campaign has been obligated; as of February 28, 2009, the Bureau reported obligating $48 million out of the $216 million to be spent for this campaign. According to Bureau officials, the funds have been obligated for a variety of communications activities, including research initiatives such as the Census Barriers, Attitudes and Motivator Surveys; promotional materials for partnership specialists and regions; and Census in Schools.

Concluding Observations

The design of the Bureau’s communications campaign appears to be comprehensive and integrated. Further, the Bureau generally appears to be addressing some of the factors that will be important for success, including (1) incorporating lessons learned from 2000 and (2) targeting resources to where they are most needed. The Bureau also plans to track response rates in 2010 and quickly deploy resources to those areas in need of a boost. If each of the various components of the communications campaign is implemented as planned, they will help position the Bureau to improve participation in the census and address the differential undercount.

Importantly, however, the various programs we examined are generally in the planning or early implementation stages. While the communications campaign has made important steps forward, considerable work lies ahead in moving from the planning to the operational phases. Further, while money from the economic stimulus package could help augment marketing of the census, less clear is the extent to which these additional funds will improve response behavior or which component of the campaign will yield the best results.

Moving forward, to help ensure a more accountable and results-oriented communications campaign, it will be important for the Bureau to continue to apply lessons learned from the 2000 Census to the implementation of the 2010 communications effort, as well as develop and meet specific performance goals. Moreover, consistent with the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, it will be important for the Bureau to first develop a spending plan for the money it receives under the act, identifying, among other things, (1) cost estimates of the activities being funded, (2) the objectives and outcome-related goals of the planned spending, and (3) how the spending will help achieve those goals.

As always, we will continue to track the implementation of the Bureau’s communications campaign as well as other key census-taking operations on behalf of Congress, and provide Congress with regular updates.

Mr. Chairman and members of the subcommittee, this concludes my prepared statement. I would be happy to respond to any questions you may have.

Contacts and Acknowledgements

If you have any questions on matters discussed in this testimony, please contact Robert Goldenkoff at (202) 512-2757 or at goldenkoffr@gao.gov. Contact points for our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on the last page of this statement. Other key contributors to this testimony include Ronald Fecso, Chief Statistician; Signora May, Assistant Director; Thomas Beall; Steven J. Berke; Richard Hung; Andrea Levine; Catherine Myrick; and Timothy Wexler.

Related GAO Products

2010 Census: Fundamental Building Blocks of a Successful Enumeration Face Challenges. GAO-09-430T. Washington, D.C.: March 5, 2009. 2010 Census: Little Time Remains to Address Operational Challenges. GAO-09-408T. Washington, D.C.: March 5, 2009. 2010 Census: Census Bureau Needs Procedures for Estimating the Response Rate and Selecting for Testing Methods to Increase Response Rate. GAO-08-1012. Washington, D.C.: September 30, 2008. 2010 Census: The Bureau’s Plans for Reducing the Undercount Show Promise, but Key Uncertainties Remain. GAO-08-1167T. Washington, D.C.: September 23, 2008. 2010 Census: Bureau Needs to Specify How It Will Assess Coverage Follow-up Techniques and When It Will Produce Coverage Measurement Results. GAO-08-414. Washington, D.C.: April 15, 2008. 2010 Census: Diversity in Human Capital, Outreach Efforts Can Benefit the 2010 Census. GAO-07-1132T. Washington, D.C.: July 26, 2007. 2010 Census: Census Bureau Has Improved the Local Update of Census Addresses Program, but Challenges Remain. GAO-07-736. Washington, D.C.: June 14, 2007.

Decennial Census: Lessons Learned for Locating and Counting Migrant and Seasonal Farm Workers. GAO-03-605. Washington, D.C.: July 3, 2003.

Decennial Census: Methods for Collecting and Reporting Data on the Homeless and Others without Conventional Housing Need Refinement. GAO-03-227. Washington, D.C.: January 17, 2003.

Decennial Census: Methods for Collecting and Reporting Hispanic Subgroup Data Need Refinement. GAO-03-228. Washington, D.C.: January 17, 2003. 2000 Census: Review of Partnership Program Highlights Best Practices for Future Operations. GAO-01-579. Washington, D.C.: August 20, 2001.

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