Climate Change: Activities of Selected Agencies to Address Potential Impact on Global Migration
Released: 2019-01-17T00:00:00

Letter

Background

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Migration

According to international and U.S. government sources, climate change poses serious risks to many of the physical and ecological systems upon which society depends, although the exact details of these impacts are uncertain. Climate change may intensify slow-onset disasters, such as drought, crop failure, and sea level rise. Climate change is also increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including sudden- onset disasters, such as floods, according to key scientific assessments. These effects of climate change may alter existing migration trends across the globe, according to IOM. (See appendix II for further discussion of climate change as a driver of migration in seven geographic regions.) For example, sea level rise, a slow-onset disaster, may result in the salinization of soil and drinking water, thereby undermining a country or community’s ability to sustain livelihoods and maintain critical services, which could cause some people to migrate. Sudden-onset disasters may also contribute to migration as people flee natural disasters, in most cases leading to temporary displacement. For example, people may either voluntarily migrate, or be forced to migrate, to earn money needed to rebuild damaged homes after flooding, especially as extreme weather events increase in intensity and number. If unable or unwilling to migrate, people may find themselves trapped or choosing to stay in deteriorating conditions. Sources agree that the effects of climate change generally impact internal migration, while migration across international borders due to climate change is less common.

In deciding whether to migrate, people weigh multiple factors including economic and political factors, social or personal motives, or demographic pressures. The effects of climate change add another layer of complexity to this decision, but there is debate about the role climate change plays in migration. Figure 1 depicts how climate change may influence other factors that drive the decision to migrate or stay.

There are limitations to reliably estimating the number of people displaced by climate change because there are no reliable global estimates for those migrating due to slow-onset disasters, and estimates for those migrating due to sudden-onset disasters are based on limited data, according to IOM. The lack of reliable data is due in part to the multi- causal nature of migration. Further, IOM notes that forecasts for the number of environmental migrants by 2050 vary from 25 million to 1 billion. They and others have questioned the methodologies used to arrive at even these broad estimates.

Climate Change Impacts on Migration that May Affect National Security

Migration, potentially driven by climate change, may contribute to instability and result in national security challenges, according to some international organizations and national governments. For example, an influx of migrants to a city may put pressure on existing resources, resulting in tensions between new migrants and residents, or between the population and its government. The U.S. Global Change Research Program has also stated that migration, such as displacement resulting from extreme weather events, is a potential national security issue. At different times, the United Nations General Assembly and, in 2014, DOD have deemed climate change to be a threat multiplier, as the effects of climate change could increase competition for resources, reduce government capacity, and threaten livelihoods, thereby causing instability and migration. Further, the U.S. intelligence community considers climate change to increase the risks of humanitarian disasters, conflict, and migration.

Identifying the cause of a conflict, however, is complicated, and experts debate the connections linking climate, migration, and national security. For example, IOM has reported that existing evidence on climate migration and instability must be considered with caution. Further, some studies stress that other factors can mitigate the effects of climate change on migration and stability, including governance and community resilience, as the World Bank has reported.

U.S. Government Agency Roles Related to Climate Change

State, USAID, and DOD are among the U.S. government agencies with a role in responding to issues related to climate change, including as a driver of migration.

State interacts with foreign governments and international organizations focused on climate change and migration primarily through the Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs (State/OES) and the Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (State/PRM).

USAID supports a range of development programs that help to mitigate the effects of climate change through the Bureaus for Economic Growth, Education and Environment; Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance; Food Security; Asia; and Africa; and individual USAID missions. Additionally, USAID’s Offices of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) and Food for Peace (USAID/FFP) lead and coordinate the U.S. government’s emergency responses to sudden- and slow-onset disasters, and complex emergencies overseas.

DOD assists in the United States’ humanitarian response to sudden- onset disasters abroad through its six geographic combatant commands, with support from the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict and the Joint Staff’s Office of Humanitarian Engagement.

Executive Branch Actions Related to Climate Change and Migration from Fiscal Years 2014 through 2018

Climate change as a driver of migration was not a focus of the policy documents we reviewed for either the current or previous administrations during fiscal years 2014 through 2018. Our review of executive actions, budget requests, and executive branch strategies that affected State, USAID, and DOD found only brief mentions of climate change as a driver of migration. None of the documents we reviewed reflected a priority for assessing or addressing climate change as a driver of migration, although these documents reflect a shift in administrations’ climate change priorities more generally.

Executive Actions

The previous administration issued two executive orders and a presidential memorandum related to climate change. These executive actions had a policy of improving climate preparedness and resilience, factoring climate-resilience considerations into agencies’ international development decisions, and creating forums for interagency coordination. In March 2017, the current administration issued a subsequent executive order revoking some of the previous executive actions related to climate change. See figure 2 for a timeline of these executive actions.

The previous administration issued three executive actions related to climate change, which included requirements focused on agencies’ considerations of the impacts of climate change and established forums for interagency coordination. The current administration issued an executive action related to energy independence and climate change.

Executive Order 13653: Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change. Executive Order 13653 stated that agencies—including State, USAID, and DOD—shall, among other things, develop, implement, and update comprehensive Agency Adaptation Plans that integrate consideration of climate change into agency operations and overall mission objectives. Executive Order 13653 also established the Council on Climate Preparedness and Resilience.

Executive Order 13677: Climate-Resilient International Development. Executive Order 13677 requires State, USAID, and other U.S. government agencies with direct international development programs and investments to incorporate climate-resilience considerations into decision making by assessing climate-related risks to agency strategies, and to adjust relevant strategies as appropriate, among other things. Executive Order 13677 also established the Working Group on Climate-Resilient International Development as part of the Council on Climate Preparedness and Resilience.

2016 Presidential Memorandum on Climate Change and National Security. The 2016 presidential memorandum required, among other things, that agencies, including State, USAID, and DOD, develop an agency-specific approach to address climate-related threats to national security. It also required agencies to develop implementation plans that would describe how they would identify the potential impact of climate change on human mobility, including migration and displacement, and the resulting impacts on national security, among other requirements, and stated that the effects of climate change can lead to population migration within and across international borders, spur crises, and amplify or accelerate conflict in countries or regions already facing instability. The 2016 memorandum also established the Climate and National Security Working Group.

Executive Order 13783, Promoting Energy Independence and Economic Growth. Executive Order 13783 revoked Executive Order 13653 and the 2016 presidential memorandum, among other things, as seen in figure 2.

Presidential Budget Requests for Fiscal Years 2017 and 2018

Priorities related to climate change shifted between the past two administrations as reflected in a recent budget request that reduced some climate change funding affecting U.S. foreign assistance.

2017 Presidential Budget Request. The previous administration stated in its fiscal year 2017 budget request that “the challenge of climate change will define the contours of this century more dramatically than any other” and that “it is imperative for the United States to couple action on climate change at home with leadership internationally.” The fiscal year 2017 budget request sought $1.3 billion in discretionary funding to advance the goals of the Global Climate Change Initiative, which was established in 2010 and aimed to promote resilient, low-emission development, and integrate climate change considerations into U.S. foreign assistance. The $1.3 billion in requested funding included $750 million in U.S. funding for the Green Climate Fund, a multilateral trust fund designed to foster resilient low-emission development in developing countries.

2018 Presidential Budget Request. The current administration, in its fiscal year 2018 budget request, did not include any funding for the Global Climate Change Initiative. In addition, the current administration’s budget request stated that it “Eliminate the Global Climate Change Initiative and fulfill the President’s pledge to cease payments to United Nations’ (UN) climate change programs by eliminating U.S. funding related to the Green Climate Fund. . .”

Strategy Documents Affecting State, USAID, and DOD

Some strategies from the current and previous administrations that affect State, USAID, and DOD, among other agencies, reflect a shift in priorities related to climate change. For example, the previous administration cited climate change as a “top strategic risk” in its 2015 National Security Strategy and stated that climate change is an urgent and growing threat to U.S. national security, contributing to increased natural disasters, refugee flows, and conflicts over basic resources like food and water. The current administration does not discuss climate change in its 2017 National Security Strategy. Additionally, State and USAID have a Joint Strategic Plan to help the agencies achieve the objectives of the National Security Strategy. The previous State-USAID Joint Strategic Plan included a strategic goal on “promoting the transition to a low-emission, climate-resilient world” that proposed leading international actions to combat climate change. The current State-USAID Joint Strategic Plan does not have a climate change goal.

State, USAID, and DOD Have Discussed the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Global Migration, but State Does Not Provide Clear Risk Assessment Guidance

State, USAID, and DOD were required by executive orders to assess climate change-related risks to their missions and, for State and USAID, to their strategies, among other things. In response to Executive Order 13653, which has since been revoked, the agencies completed adaptation plans that integrated considerations of climate change into agency operations and overall mission objectives. In response to Executive Order 13677, which has not been revoked, State and USAID developed processes for climate change risk assessments for their country and regional planning documents. Although these executive orders did not require a specific assessment of climate change as a driver of migration, all three agencies have discussed the effects of climate change on migration in their adaptation plans and risk assessments. However, State lacks clear guidance on its process for assessing climate change-related risks to its integrated country strategies.

Agencies Discussed the Effects of Climate Change on Migration in Their 2014 Adaptation Plans

State, USAID, and DOD each completed adaptation plans in 2014 that included limited discussions of migration as one potential effect of climate change. Executive Order 13653 directed the agencies to develop or continue to develop, implement, and update comprehensive Agency Adaptation Plans that integrate consideration of climate change into agency operations and overall mission objectives. Each adaptation plan was to include, among other things, a description of how the agency would consider the need to improve climate adaptation and resilience.

State. In its 2014 adaptation plan, State included a brief discussion of climate change as one of multiple factors that potentially will drive migration and impact its mission. State reported that the specific impacts of climate change on the ability of the department to promote peace and stability in regions of vital interest to the United States were unknown. For example, according to the plan, an increase in heavy precipitation events around the world could damage the electric grid and transportation and energy water infrastructure, upon which State depends, making it difficult to maintain operations and diplomatic relations. In its plan, State reported that climate change impacts may threaten international peace, civil stability, and economic growth through aggravating existing problems related to poverty and environmental degradation. Further, environmental and poverty- related issues and regional instability could stress relationships with some foreign governments. However, the plan noted that specific impacts of climate change on conflict, migration, terrorism, and complex disasters were still unknown.

USAID. In its 2014 adaptation plan, USAID included a brief discussion of migration as one potential effect of climate change that could also impact security. USAID stated that the impact of climate change on its programs and operations, if left unaddressed, could compromise the agency’s ability to achieve its mission. Further, USAID’s plan referred to increased migration as a potential risk of climate change. Flooding and other extreme climate events can result in increased migration, among other impacts, that could affect existing and planned USAID programming. In particular, programs in areas like agriculture and food security, global health, water and sanitation, infrastructure, and disaster readiness and humanitarian response are vulnerable to climate change, according to USAID. In the infrastructure area, climate change may necessitate new protective measures for coastal homes and infrastructure, and in some cases even mass evacuations or permanent migration. USAID stated that climate change could further reduce or alter the distribution of already limited resources like food and water, or force temporary or permanent migration of communities. According to the plan, in areas with high risk factors for conflict, climate change stresses can aggravate tensions and contribute to conflict.

DOD. In its 2014 adaptation roadmap, DOD included a brief discussion of migration as one of multiple potential effects of climate change that could impact national security. DOD referred to climate change as a threat multiplier that can aggravate other risks around the world, with migration being one effect that could increase requests for DOD to provide assistance. The roadmap stated that as climate change affects the availability of food and water, human migration, and competition for natural resources, the department’s unique capability to provide logistical, material, and security assistance on a massive scale or in rapid fashion may be called upon with increasing frequency. Furthermore, DOD stated that the impacts of climate change may cause instability in other countries by, among other things, impairing access to food and water, damaging infrastructure, uprooting and displacing large numbers of people, and compelling mass migration. These developments, according to the department, could undermine already fragile governments that are unable to respond effectively, or challenge currently stable governments, as well as increase competition and tension between countries vying for limited resources.

Few of the State and USAID Risk Assessments We Reviewed Identified the Nexus of Climate Change and Migration as a Risk

In response to Executive Order 13677, State and USAID developed processes for climate change risk assessments for their country and regional planning documents. Though these assessments are not specific to migration, a few of the assessments identified the nexus of climate change and migration.

State. State required climate change risk assessments for all new integrated country strategies drafted in 2016 or later. We reviewed 10 integrated country strategies from the two regions that were the first to implement the climate change risk assessment requirement— Africa, and East Asia and the Pacific. All 10 of the strategies included climate change risk assessments, one of which—Cambodia— identified migration as a risk for the country. The Cambodia strategy states that internal migration due to climate change hinders access to health care and the prevention of infectious diseases like malaria. We also reviewed 10 strategies from State’s functional and regional bureaus for assessments of climate-related risks, including 3 functional bureau strategies (State/PRM, State/OES, and State’s Bureau of International Organization Affairs) and 7 regional bureau strategies. All of the functional bureau strategies we reviewed identified climate change as a risk and State/PRM cited the impact of climate change on migration. Of the regional bureau strategies we reviewed, we found that one, the Bureau for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, identified climate change as a driver of migration as a challenge or risk in its region. For example, the strategy states that climate change is becoming increasingly disruptive, potentially increasing migration due to rising sea levels. None of the other six regional bureau strategies we reviewed identified the nexus of climate change and migration as a risk or challenge. However, five regional bureaus identified climate change as a risk or challenge and one identified migration as a risk or challenge.

USAID. USAID also requires the integration of climate risk management into all country or regional development cooperation strategies drafted since October 1, 2015. Missions must document in a climate change appendix to the strategy any climate risks they identified and how they considered climate change in their strategy. As of August 2018, USAID had completed five country or regional development cooperation strategy updates initiated since October 1, 2015—Uganda, Tunisia, East Africa, Sri Lanka, and Zimbabwe—and all five included the required appendix. Of the five updated strategies, three—Uganda, Tunisia, and East Africa—discuss the indirect effect of climate change on migration, among other issues. For example, Uganda’s 2016-2021 country strategy states that increased frequency and duration of droughts is likely to be the most significant climate‐related change in Uganda. The strategy also notes that droughts have affected, and will continue to affect, water resources, hydroelectricity production, and agriculture, among other sectors. As agriculture, forestry, and fisheries decline in Uganda, the strategy asserts that people will migrate to urban areas, leading to the formation of slums. We also reviewed USAID’s nine regional development cooperation strategies, one of which—East Africa—had been updated since the requirement to include climate risk management. Of the other eight strategies that have yet to be updated, seven identified climate change as a challenge or risk and three identified climate change as a driver of migration as a challenge or risk. For example, the Southern Africa regional development cooperation strategy states that water scarcity, natural disasters, and other climate change related events will most likely increase migration throughout the region. Additionally, the Asia regional development cooperation strategy discusses the risks of climate change in urban areas. In Asia, the number of migrants seeking economic opportunities in urban centers is likely to increase. According to the strategy, migrants are moving into hazard-prone areas located along coastlines, flood plains, and other low-lying areas in many Asian primary and secondary cities—areas that experts predict will experience more frequent and intense storm surges, floods, and coastal erosion as a result of climate change.

State Lacks Clear Guidance on its Process for Assessing Climate Change-Related Risks

The requirement in Executive Order 13677 to assess climate change- related risks to agency strategies remains unchanged; however, State now lacks clear guidance on its process for assessing climate change- related risks to its integrated country strategies. Specifically, State’s 2016 guidance for developing integrated country strategies stated that all missions should assess the risk of climate change on their strategies’ goals and objectives and included reference to the climate risk screening tool—a method that missions could use to assess climate change risks. State issued new guidance to its missions in 2018, but this guidance does not include information on the process for assessing climate change-related risks to agency strategies. According to State officials, the 2018 guidance for integrated country strategies does not reference climate change risk assessments because, in September 2017, State decided that the strategies should not single out climate change risks in a separate appendix. State officials said this decision resulted, in part, from the new administration’s shift in priorities on climate change. Officials also said that this decision reflects a new approach to risk management by State and that the missions could choose to include climate change and other potential risks in the general risk discussion section of their strategies. Officials from State’s Office of U.S. Foreign Assistance Resources said that it is now up to each mission to decide whether a strategic objective may have a climate challenge. However, those missions that choose to include an assessment of climate change risks are not provided guidance on the process for doing so and there is no reference to the climate risk screening tool—or to climate change at all—in the 2018 guidance.

Executive Order 13677 directed State to incorporate climate-resilience considerations into decision making by assessing climate-related risks to agency strategies, among other things. Subsequently, a State cable from September 2016 further explained that State would implement the executive order’s requirement by screening for climate risks as part of the process for drafting all new integrated country strategies. Additionally, the Standards for Internal Control in the Federal Government state that documentation is a necessary part of an effective internal control system. If management determines that a principle is not relevant, management must support that determination with documentation that includes the rationale of how, in the absence of that principle, the associated component could be designed, implemented, and operated effectively.

Because State lacks clear guidance on its process for assessing climate change-related risks to its integrated country strategies, it is less likely that the current round of strategies will include the assessment of climate- related risks. It is also possible that those missions that choose to conduct climate change risk assessments will not do so in a consistent manner. Such assessments might identify climate change as a driver of migration, as at least one previous assessment did under the 2016 guidance. Thus, without clear guidance, missions may not examine climate change as a risk to their strategic objectives and could miss opportunities to improve the climate resilience of foreign assistance activities.

State, USAID, and DOD Have Been Involved in Various Climate Change Related Activities, but None Were Focused Specifically on Migration, and Their Participation Has Declined

For fiscal years 2014 through 2017, State, USAID, and DOD had some activities that could potentially address climate change as a driver of migration, although none of these activities specifically focused on the issue. For example, USAID has climate change adaptation activities, but to date migration has not been a focus of this programming. With the shift in priorities related to climate change in fiscal year 2017, agencies have reduced some of these activities.

State Activities

State’s offices that are focused on the issues of climate change (State/OES) and migration (State/PRM) have participated in multilateral activities related to climate change as a driver of migration and funded adaptation and other activities related to the issue. State officials said that the agency does not, however, have any activities that specifically address migration due to climate change or environmental factors.

Multilateral Efforts

State has participated in multilateral activities related to climate change and migration. With the shift in priorities related to climate change in fiscal year 2017, the United States has disengaged from some of these multilateral activities (see table 1).

In addition to State’s participation in the multilateral activities described in table 2, State has provided funding for activities related to climate change and capacity building that address natural disasters. These activities may involve efforts potentially related to migration. For example, according to State:

State provided about $2 million per year, between fiscal years 2014 and 2016, to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which analyzed the impacts of climate change on migration in its most recent assessment report.

State/PRM provided about $4 million, between fiscal years 2014 through 2018, for IOM’s Migrants in Countries in Crisis Initiative, which provides guidelines to protect migrants in countries experiencing conflict or natural disasters. IOM provides training to countries on these guidelines. State/PRM officials said that this initiative is not specifically related to climate change and does not focus on specific types of disasters but does mention sudden-onset disasters. Officials also said that IOM tries to promote a climate change perspective in its trainings.

State/OES provided about $78 million in adaptation funding from the Global Climate Change Initiative to eight projects during fiscal years 2014 through 2017. (See appendix III for a description of all eight projects.) State/OES officials said that these projects help countries prepare for the impacts of climate change, potentially reducing the pressure to migrate. However, to these officials’ knowledge, none of these projects directly supported activities related to migration. For example, State/OES provided a $4 million grant to the National Adaptation Plans Global Network. This network focuses on increasing the capacity of governments to identify and assess climate risks, integrate these risks in planning, develop a pipeline of projects to address these risks, identify and secure funding for projects, and track progress toward resilience targets. Adaptation activities occurred in over 35 countries.

With the shift in priorities related to climate change in fiscal year 2017, State discontinued some of these efforts. For example, funding for the Global Climate Change Initiative was not included in the President’s budget request for fiscal year 2018. State/OES officials said that the agency does not plan to fund additional adaptation activities and has not requested additional funding for the activities. According to a State official, PRM had been in discussion with IOM to develop a project proposal that would have assisted the governments of Small Island Developing States in adapting their migration policies to account for challenges and opportunities associated with environmental degradation, ecosystem loss, climate change impacts, and natural disasters. State/PRM stopped further development of the proposal following the change in administrations. Additionally, according to a State official, the department made some efforts at the end of the previous administration to develop a formal position on the topic of climate change as a driver of migration. For example, State drafted an internal document to help clarify its role in responding to the humanitarian aspects of sudden-onset and slow-onset climate events. This initial work stopped under the current administration.

USAID Activities

USAID officials said that, with respect to the agency’s climate-related programming, its climate change adaptation programming was the most likely to include activities related to migration or displacement, although a broad swath of USAID development programming has the potential to build host country resilience. Officials stated that, to date, migration has not been a primary motivation for the agency’s climate-related or disaster assistance programming. However, officials said that, in a humanitarian crisis or under some economic conditions, development programming can reduce displacement or the pressure to migrate—such as by fostering greater resilience to drought or other adverse conditions—and that this is also true of climate-related programming. USAID also provides humanitarian assistance in response to natural disasters that displace people. Officials said that USAID recognizes the links between displacement and natural disasters, but that the agency does not have specific programs linking disaster assistance, migration, and climate change.

Adaptation Efforts

USAID identified about 250 activities that received adaptation funding from the Global Climate Change Initiative during fiscal years 2014 through 2016. Our analysis of the descriptions of these activities determined that none directly mentioned any efforts specifically related to migration. Officials emphasized that the connection between climate change and migration tends to be indirect and shaped by other more immediate factors. USAID’s data on activities that received adaptation funding identified 38 beneficiary countries, as well as activities described generally as implemented at the regional or global level. For activities where USAID’s data identified a specific region, most activities were located in Africa followed by Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean.

Examples of the types of activities that received adaptation funding from the Global Climate Change Initiative during fiscal years 2014 through 2016 include:

The Mali Climate Change Adaptation Activity, which aims to build resilience to current climate variability and increase resilience to longer-term climate change effects. This activity is also working to strengthen the capacity of Mali’s meteorological agency to provide improved climate information as well as to incorporate climate considerations into local-level planning. The total estimated cost is about $13 million over 5 years.

The activity for Climate-Resilient Ecosystems and Livelihoods, which ended in September 2018, aimed to increase Bangladesh’s resilience to natural hazards by working with community-based organizations, government ministries, and technical agencies. This activity provided technical assistance to the Government of Bangladesh and local communities to improve ecosystem conservation and resilience capacity. The total estimated cost was about $33 million in funding over 6 years.

The activity for Pastoralist Areas Resilience Improvement through Market Expansion, which aims to support pastoralists in Ethiopia via expansion of markets and long-term behavior change (see fig. 3). USAID officials cited this activity as an example of adaptation efforts that indirectly address the issue of climate change as a driver of migration. The activity has three interrelated objectives: increasing household incomes, enhancing resilience, and bolstering adaptive capacity to climate change among pastoral people in Ethiopia. An evaluation of the activity found that migration is a coping strategy for dealing with climate shocks, although participants said that drought is becoming more frequent, placing a severe strain on traditional coping mechanisms, such as migration and selling cattle, and that permanent migration is not a preferred strategy. The total estimated cost is about $60 million in funding over 6 years.

With the shift in priorities related to climate change, funding for USAID’s climate change adaptation activities has decreased. Missions may continue to fund their adaptation activities with discretionary funds or other earmarked, sector funding, provided the activities further the funding source’s objective, according to USAID. For example, in some cases, missions are using Water sector funding to continue some of their adaptation work. USAID also said that among the agency’s goals are to increase the resilience of USAID partner countries to recurrent crises, including climate variability and change.

Humanitarian Aid and Disaster Assistance Efforts

In addition to USAID’s climate change adaptation programming, USAID/OFDA and USAID/FFP provide emergency humanitarian assistance to people affected by sudden-onset disasters—such as hurricanes and floods—and slow-onset and extended disasters, including droughts and conflicts. Some of this assistance helps people who have been displaced by disaster. USAID officials stated that although disasters cause mainly temporary displacement, the relationship among humanitarian assistance, climate change, and migration is very complex and depends on both climatic and non-climatic factors. USAID/OFDA responded to 267 disasters from fiscal year 2014 through June 2018, according to agency data. For example, USAID/OFDA responded to the effects of Hurricane Matthew in Haiti in October 2016, as seen in figure 4, including helping temporarily displaced people.

DOD Activities

DOD assists in the U.S. government response to overseas disasters, including helping people displaced by such disasters, regardless of the cause of the disaster. These efforts are not specific to climate change as a driver of migration. For example, officials from DOD’s geographic combatant commands said that, to the extent they address climate change, migration is not a focus of those efforts and they view migration as caused by security and economic issues.

Between fiscal years 2014 and 2018, Congress has appropriated to DOD between $103 and $130 million per year for Overseas Humanitarian, Disaster, and Civic Aid. Officials said that the geographic combatant commands use most of this funding for steady state humanitarian assistance related to health, education, basic infrastructure, and disaster preparedness with a smaller amount set aside for immediate disaster assistance although that varies based on emergency requirements. DOD officials said that they have not seen any changes to this funding or associated activities with the change of administrations in fiscal year 2017. DOD officials we spoke with also emphasized that USAID/OFDA is the lead agency for the U.S. government’s response to disasters overseas. USAID/OFDA formally requested DOD support on about 10 percent of the foreign disaster assistance provided by USAID/OFDA, according to USAID data for fiscal year 2014 through June 2018 and DOD officials. DOD assistance is typically provided for the largest, most complex disasters, according to agency officials.

According to a July 2015 assessment conducted by the geographic combatant commands, while their activities vary, each command works with partner nations to increase their abilities to reduce the risks and effects from environmental impacts and climate-related events, including severe weather and other hazards. For example, in the report, U.S. Southern Command stated that it had requested funding to pre-position assets for when a severe storm threatens Haiti to be able to respond immediately to a potential disaster. U.S. Southern Command officials said that they work with partner nations to encourage residents experiencing extreme weather to remain where they are because it is easier to provide help to people who stay in one place. Officials from U.S. Southern Command and U.S. Africa Command also said that the major factors driving migration in their regions are security and economic issues.

Interagency Forums

State, USAID, and DOD have participated in interagency forums regarding climate change, which may have addressed its effects on migration. With changes to priorities regarding climate change in fiscal year 2017, these forums have been disbanded or are not meeting.

The Council on Climate Preparedness and Resilience. The Council on Climate Preparedness and Resilience, of which State, USAID, and DOD were members, was established to facilitate the integration of climate science in policies and planning of government agencies, including by promoting the development of climate change related information, data, and tools, among other things. Additionally, the council was to develop, recommend, and coordinate interagency efforts on priority federal government actions related to climate preparedness and resilience. According to State officials, the council began working with the National Security Council and other agencies to facilitate greater interagency cooperation on adaptation. In addition, a task force on the council was discussing the federal role in addressing displacement related to climate change. The council was disbanded when Executive Order 13783 revoked Executive Order 13653, which had established the council.

The Working Group on Climate-Resilient International Development. The Working Group on Climate-Resilient International Development, of which State and USAID were members, was established by Executive Order 13677 and placed under the Council on Climate Preparedness and Resilience. The working group’s mission includes developing guidelines for integrating considerations of climate-change risks and climate resilience into agency strategies, plans, programs, projects, investments, and related funding decisions, among other things. Additionally, the working group was tasked with facilitating the exchange of knowledge and lessons learned in assessing climate risks to agency strategies, among other things. USAID officials said that the working group had not discussed climate change as a driver of migration. While the working group has not been formally disbanded, it has not met since at least November 2017 according to USAID.

The Climate and National Security Working Group. The Climate and National Security Working Group, of which State, USAID, and DOD were members, was established by the 2016 presidential memorandum. The chairs of the working group were to coordinate the development of a strategic approach to identify, assess, and share information on current and projected climate-related impacts on national security interests and to inform the development of national security doctrine, policies, and plans, among other things. According to the memorandum, the working group was to provide a venue for enhancing the understanding of the links between climate change- related impacts and national security interests and for discussing opportunities for climate mitigation and adaptation activities to address national security issues. This working group was disbanded when Executive Order 13783 revoked the 2016 presidential memorandum, which had established the working group.

Conclusions

State, USAID, and DOD assessments and activities have not focused specifically on the nexus of climate change and migration. State did identify migration as a risk of climate change in at least one of its climate change risk assessments for the department’s country strategies. However, State now lacks clear guidance on its process for assessing climate change-related risks to its integrated country strategies. State’s current guidance for these country strategies no longer mentions a climate change risk assessment and does not provide missions with information about the climate risk screening tool that can be used to conduct such an assessment. As such, missions are less likely to examine climate change as a risk to their strategic objectives, or to do so in a consistent manner, and thus may not have the information they would need to identify migration as a risk of climate change. By clearly documenting and providing guidance on how to assess the risk of climate change, State would ensure that the department examines the potential risks of climate change on its foreign assistance activities.

Recommendation for Executive Action

We are making the following recommendation to State: The Secretary of State should ensure that the Director of the Office of U.S. Foreign Assistance Resources provides missions with guidance that clearly documents the department’s process for climate change risk assessments for integrated country strategies. (Recommendation 1)

Agency Comments

We provided a draft of this product to State, USAID, and DOD for review and comment. State provided written comments, which we have reprinted in appendix IV. In its comments, State did not oppose the recommendation and noted that the agency will update its integrated country strategy guidance by June 30, 2019 to inform missions that they have the option to include an annex on climate resilience, as well as other topics. However, State also indicated that the agency will begin working with stakeholders to consider whether to recommend that the Secretary of State ask the President to rescind Executive Order 13677: Climate- Resilient International Development.

USAID also provided written comments, which we have reprinted in appendix V. In its letter, USAID provided some additional information about its programs and its proposed transformation effort. USAID and DOD provided technical comments, which we incorporated as appropriate.

We are sending copies of this report to the appropriate congressional requesters, Secretary of State, the Administrator of USAID, and the Secretary of Defense. In addition, the report is available at no charge on the GAO website at http://www.gao.gov.

If you or your staff have any questions about this report, please contact David Gootnick at (202) 512-3149 or gootnickd@gao.gov, or Brian J. Lepore at (202) 512-4523 or leporeb@gao.gov. Contact points for our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on the last page of this report. GAO staff who made key contributions to this report are listed in appendix VI.

Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

This report (1) describes executive branch actions related to climate change and migration from fiscal years 2014 through 2018; (2) examines the extent to which the Department of State (State), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and the Department of Defense (DOD) have discussed the potential effects of climate change on migration in their plans and risk assessments; and (3) describes State, USAID, and DOD activities, if any, that are related to climate change and global migration. We chose fiscal years 2014 through 2018 as our time frame based on our review of recent executive orders related to climate change. We selected State, USAID, and DOD because the agencies’ missions of diplomacy, development, and defense provide the foundation for promoting and protecting U.S. interests abroad.

To describe executive branch actions related to climate change and migration from fiscal years 2014 through 2018, we reviewed documents that reflect priorities of the previous and current administrations. Specifically, we reviewed budget requests and enacted appropriations between fiscal years 2014 through 2018 for funding priorities related to climate change and U.S. foreign assistance. In addition, we reviewed executive actions and executive branch strategies that applied to State, USAID, and DOD between fiscal years 2014 through 2018 for executive and national security priorities related to climate change. For example, we reviewed the current and previous national security strategies. strategies and seven regional bureau strategies. For USAID, we examined the five country and regional strategies that were required to include a climate risk assessment at the time of our review: Uganda, Tunisia, East Africa, Sri Lanka, and Zimbabwe. We also reviewed all nine USAID regional strategies. For both State and USAID, we reviewed the selected strategies by searching for information related to migration and climate change. To determine whether State clearly documents the department’s current climate risk assessment process for integrated country strategies, we compared State’s 2018 guidance for developing integrated country strategies with standards related to documentation in Standards for Internal Control in the Federal Government and previous State guidance issued in 2016, which was created in response to Executive Order 13677’s requirements to assess climate change risks to strategies, among other things. to these issues. The agency then provided us with data for about 250 activities from its annual operational plans for fiscal years 2014 through 2016, the 3 years during the period we reviewed in which it received adaptation funding. USAID identified these activities based on whether the agency had tagged them in its plans as having an “adaptation key issue.” USAID excluded projects that had planned attributions to the adaptation key issue of less than $250,000 in a given fiscal year, as well as certain other activities such as those that focused on project support. We then conducted an automated review of the activity description fields provided by USAID for terms related to migration and other descriptive information such as locations of activities. Because no USAID adaptation activities specifically mentioned migration, for the purposes of this report we chose illustrative examples to provide context for the types of activities the agency has funded.

DOD officials we met with did not identify any specific activities related to climate change as a driver of migration. DOD officials from the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict and the geographic combatant commands generally discussed DOD activities related to humanitarian assistance and disaster response as most relevant to our inquiry. Because DOD works in coordination with USAID’s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance on disaster assistance we also reviewed USAID data on its disaster response activities during this period.

We determined that the USAID and State adaptation project data and USAID disaster assistance data were sufficiently reliable for the purposes of describing these efforts.

State, USAID, and DOD to obtain information on whether changes in government priorities related to climate change affected their activities.

We conducted this performance audit from October 2017 to January 2019 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives.

Appendix II: Regional Focus on Climate Change as a Driver of Global Migration

This appendix provides a review by region of observed and projected climate change effects, migration trends, and challenges in stability and security. Multiple sources we used for this overview make a connection between climate change and such events as rising sea levels, higher temperatures, and an increase in the number and severity of extreme weather events. The following regions are discussed: Asia, South America, the Arctic, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Oceania, and Central America and the Caribbean. We have provided an overview for each region and a focus on one country or territory in the region. international and regional organizations, including a variety of organizations within the United Nations, the World Bank, regional development banks, the European Union, and others. Third, we reviewed relevant public documents from U.S. government agencies, including the Department of Defense, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and the United States Institute of Peace (USIP). Fourth, we reviewed academic sources, research institutions, and documents from the relevant country’s national government. population. Economic conditions may be a factor for people deciding whether to migrate or stay in their country of origin.

Remittances as Percent of GDP: The money international migrants transfer to recipients in their country of origin, expressed as a percentage of the origin country’s GDP. Sources agree that remittances support resilience in origin countries.

Agriculture, Fishing, Forestry as Percent of GDP: A measure of the value added to an economy from the agricultural sector, which includes forestry, hunting, fishing, and the cultivation of crops and livestock, expressed as a percentage of the country’s GDP. Countries that depend on the agricultural sector may be vulnerable to the effects of climate change, according to the World Bank.

Percent of Population in Cities: The population living in areas classified as urban according to criteria each country uses. Today, more than half of the global population lives in cities. Migration, in some cases due to climate change, is an important driver of urban growth, according to IOM. Cities are also expected to face increasing risks from rising sea levels, flooding, storms, and other climate change effects.

Net Migration Rate: A measure of the number of people leaving a country compared to the number of people entering a country, expressed as a number per 1,000 people.

The effects of climate change in Asia may impact migration and stability according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). In coastal areas, effects of climate change include rising sea levels, storm surges, and others. Receding glaciers in mountanous areas may also cause flooding, and monsoons in a warmer climate may be more severe. Heat extremes and more rainfall are a particular concern in Southeast Asia. Changes in precipitation and drought in Asia may exacerbate food security challenges, and contribute to people deciding to migrate. Increases in migration, partly stemming from the effects of climate change in surrounding rural areas, may put pressure on existing urban infrastructure. Rural migrants may settle in informal communities on the outskirts of cities, areas that have little resilience to natural disasters. Although the World Bank and others agree that climate change largely causes internal migration, some evidence shows that the impact of climate change contributes to cross-border migration in Asia. Large numbers of migrants, along with other destabilizing factors, may contribute to instability and conflict, according to the IPCC. The effects of climate change on livelihoods, for example, could increase migration, strain governance, and contribute to conflict as a result. Bangladesh is one example where decreased yields from agriculture and fisheries have contributed to migration to the country’s coastal cities, which face their own climate change challenges.

Bangladesh: Climate Change, Migration, Stability and Security

Total Population 164,700,000

Bangladesh’s high population density and geography make the country susceptible to the effects of climate change, according to the World Bank, and others. Bangladesh’s coasts and river banks are vulnerable to sudden-onset events such as tropical cyclones and flooding. Cyclone Aila in 2009, for example, caused widespread flooding in the southern coastal areas of Bangladesh and impacted millions of people. The storm washed away embankments that protected coastlines and caused severe damage to crops and livelihoods. Tropical Cyclone Mora in 2017 damaged thousands of homes and displaced an estimated 200,000 people. Increases in the number and intensity of tropical cyclones, which some predict will occur in a warmer climate, could have severe impacts on homes, livelihoods, and food security. Bangladesh also experiences many slow-onset climate change events, such as rising sea levels and increasingly severe droughts, which are projected to intensify with climate change. Bangladesh would lose an estimated 17.5 percent of its land if the sea level rose 1 meter, as the International Organization for Migration (IOM) has reported. Projected changes in precipitation levels could cause drought and food insecurity in the northwest and salt-water intrusion could reduce crop yields in the southwest.

Net Migration Rate per 1000 people -3.2

Map of Bangladesh

Migration is a common adaptation strategy to climate change in Bangladesh, according to the ADB. For example, some farmers have adapted to salt water intrusion and destroyed crops by switching to salt- tolerant rice production or shrimp cultivation. Others have migrated, often to Bangladesh’s cities to find work less dependent on agriculture. Many new migrants to Bangladesh’s cities live in informal settlements that lack the resilience to withstand sudden-onset climate events. The capital city, Dhaka, is a common destination for migrants displaced by salt-water intrusion, flooding, and river erosion, according to IOM. Dhaka, like many coastal cities in South Asia, is located on a low-lying riverbank and faces increasing risks of extreme flooding. For example, past floods in Dhaka have destroyed homes and contaminated drinking water, creating significant health hazards. In some cases, individuals migrate to cities temporarily for work and return home after the agricultural off season ends. Bangladeshis also provide a significant number of labor migrants to the Gulf States and Malaysia. Remittances from international migrants represent 5.4 percent of the country’s GDP, and may help to support resilience to climate change, according to IOM, and others. These migration trends may intensify in the future. One study estimates 9.6 million people will migrate from 2011 to 2050 due to the effects of climate change.

Challenges in Stability and Security Migration due to climate change is cited as a potential destabilizing factor in Bangladesh by ADB, and others. The low-income population in Bangladesh is dependent on agriculture, making the effects of climate change—including impacts on food security—a particular concern. By 2030, these effects on livelihoods and food security could increase the poverty rate in Bangladesh by 15 percent, as the IPCC has reported. Given the proximity of Bangladesh to India, some individuals may also choose to cross the border. Increased migration to India is a potential concern, according to some sources, as India may not have the resources to absorb large numbers of Bangladeshi migrants.

The CNA Corporation, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (Alexandria, VA: 2007); and Population Council, “Effects of Future Climate Change on Cross-Border Migration in North Africa and India,” Population and Development Review, Vol. 36, No. 2 (2010).

The effects of climate change in South America vary by region, according to the the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and International Organization for Migration (IOM), as well as potentially impacting migration and stability. On the coast, risks include sea level rise, depletion of fisheries, and coral reef bleaching, according to IOM. Coastal cities with growing populations are particularly vulnerable. Melting glaciers in the Andean mountain region, and increased rainfall are expected to change the distribution of water resources, and impact food production as global demand for food is growing. Desertification and land degradation, complicated by the effects of climate change, are contributing to migration from rural areas to cities in South America, as IOM has reported. An estimated 77 percent of people living in high risk areas in South America are located in cities, according to IOM. IOM predicts that as these people feel the effects of sea level rise and water scarcity, they will migrate from the large coastal cities to smaller urban areas. While South America has experienced economic growth in the last decade, poverty rates remain high, and the effects of climate change, including possible migration, may exacerbate inequalities, putting further pressure on cities to meet the needs of their populations. Water security in particular is expected to disproportionaly impact low-income communities, according to the IPCC. For example, in Brazil, drought in the northeast may increase migration to southern cities that are facing rising sea levels and landslides, with consequences for food, water, and energy security.

Brazil: Climate Change, Migration, Stability and Security

Human Development Index High Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Capita $14,103 Remittances as % of GDP 0.1 Agriculture, Fishing, Forestry as % of GDP 4.6 % Population in Cities 86.3 Net Migration Rate per 1000 people 0.0

Observed and Projected Effects of Climate Change Brazil’s cities and rural regions may encounter a range of climate change effects, according to the IPCC and IOM. Rural areas, particularly in the northeast, could experience significant impacts from climate change partly due to poverty rates, and historical vulnerability to drought. Higher temperatures are expected to affect crop yields and household incomes, especially for low-income communities. In northeastern Brazil, temperatures are expected to increase and rainfall to decrease. The northeast could see a 22 percent reduction in precipitation by 2100, according to IPCC projections. Brazil’s coastal areas, including cities, are also vulnerable to rising sea levels, heavy precipitation, flooding, and landslides. The vast majority of Brazil’s population, about 86 percent, lives in cities, many in coastal areas, according to the United Nations Development Program. As their populations have grown, urban areas have extended out. This urban growth in Brazil’s megacities has caused further increases in temperature, rainfall, and landslides. For example, current levels of urbanization in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo may already be responsible for the 2°C warming observed in the city over the last 50 years, as well as the rise in extreme rainfall, according to the IPCC. The metropolitan area is expected to extend its area 38 percent by 2030. Multiple studies of the effects of urbanization on Sao Paulo’s climate suggest higher temperatures affect convective rainfall, which occurs when warm air rises, condenses to form clouds, and produces extreme rain. Other concerns are the depletion of coral reefs and mangrove forests on Brazil’s coastlines, and decreases in biodiversity.

Migration from drought in northeastern Brazil to cities has increased urban populations, putting more people at risk of displacement from flooding and landslides. Migration from the northeast is a historical trend in Brazil, as economic migrants have sought seasonal jobs in more productive agricultural regions, or moved permanently to southern cities. Projected declines in rainfall have led some to predict further increases in migration in northeastern Brazil, as the IPCC has reported. However, remittances from family members who leave Brazil’s northeast support resilience for those who remain and may help to reduce migration. Already environmental factors contribute to migration to cities, including to favelas, informal settlements often constructed in hilly areas and floodplains outside of Brazilian cities. A significant number of the favela residents in Rio de Janeiro are migrants from northeastern Brazil, according to IOM. These new migrants may be at risk of further displacement if heavy rainfall, flooding, and other climate change effects destroy their vulnerable homes. For example, heavy rainfall in April 2010 resulted in landslides across Rio de Janeiro, displacing an estimated 5,000 people, according to a report from the World Bank. Brazil is also a destination for migrants from other countries in the region. Migrants from Venezuela searching for jobs and improved food security have come in growing numbers in recent years, as have migrants from Haiti fleeing a series of natural disasters, as IOM has reported.

Challenges in Stability and Security Although Brazil ranks 106th out of 178 countries on the Fragile States Index, the effects of climate change may contribute to challenges with water, food, and energy access according to the IPCC. Decreased rainfall could decrease agricultural productivity, with potential health impacts for poor populations. These conditions are of particular concern in northeastern Brazil, as extreme weather and low crop yields are associated with more violence, according to the IPCC. Brazil also receives about 70 percent of its electricity from hydroelectric power, according the United Nations Environment Programme, and recent droughts caused power cuts across many major cities. Although not linked to the effects of climate change, absorbing a growing number of migrants fleeing political and economic instability in Venezuela may impact the broader region, according to the U.S. Department of Defense and the National Intelligence Council. Neighboring countries, including Brazil, may struggle to absorb the influx of migrants. On average, 800 Venezuelans are crossing the border to Brazil every day in need of urgent humanitarian assistance, according to the UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency.

The effects of climate change in the Arctic, including higher temperatures and melting ice, have contributed to shifts in migration across the Arctic, and may have security implications. Increasing temperatures may have a variety of impacts in the Arctic, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The effects of rising temperatures are disrupting livelihoods and food security, especially for indigenous communities, and opening up untapped natural resources to extraction. Both trends have impacted migration flows in the Arctic. Rising temperatures and melting ice have opened up previously inaccessible waterways in the Arctic, with implications for national security, according to the Department of Defense and others. Greenland, located in the Arctic and considered part of Kingdom of Denmark, exhibits many of these trends.

Greenland: Climate Change, Migration, Stability and Security

Total Population 56,000

Greenland is experiencing the effects of climate change, including glacial and ice melt, shifts in wildlife distribution, and newly available oil and mineral deposits, among others. The Greenland Ice Sheet covers approximately 80 percent of Greenland’s land mass. The ice sheet’s melting rate is slow, but uncertain. Increases in temperature greater than 1°C may result in the near loss of the entire ice sheet over a millennium and significant sea level rise, according to the IPCC. In the short term, predicting the ice sheet’s melting rate is a challenge as predictions vary in the scientific community. Accurate predictions would support mitigation and adaptation efforts in vulnerable areas. Rising temperatures and shrinking ice cover have shifted the distribution and migration patterns of marine mammals and fish, and impacted food security according to the IPCC and the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental forum for Arctic states. For example, the economy in Paamiut, Greenland, depended primarily on cod fisheries until changing climate conditions caused cod to disappear, and the town was slow to adapt to newly available shrimp. Similarly, fisheries in Disko Bay, Greenland, have struggled to adapt to new conditions. Rising temperatures and the resulting reduction in ice cover have required a shift to fishing from boats in open water instead of hunting and fishing over ice cover. Lastly, warming and ice melt may make significant oil and mineral deposits accessible for extraction in the future. The potential expansion of extraction industries makes environmental sustainability another possible concern. For example, an estimated 31 billion barrels of oil and gas may exist off the coast of Northeast Greenland, according to the Kingdom of Denmark’s 2011-2020 Arctic Strategy. The strategy stresses the importance of assessing and reducing risks to the environment resulting from the exploration and extraction of oil and gas.

The effects of climate change are predicted to contribute to internal and external migration in Greenland. For example, young people are increasingly leaving indigenous communities in rural areas for cities in Greenland in search of work, as traditional livelihoods become unsustainable. Greenland is home to a majority indigenous population, primarily Inuit, whose traditional hunting and fishing practices require travel across ice. In the past, people adapted to seasonal changes to support livelihoods by migrating, and the practice was embedded into indigenous social structures. With reduced ice cover, however, migrating to hunt, fish, and maintain connections to community is more dangerous or restricted. Government policies promoting centralized services, such as health care and education, have also played a role in the shift away from migration as a way of life. As a result, indigenous livelihoods are more difficult to maintain, and young people often migrate to towns and cities in Greenland, or to Denmark, for education. At the same time, warmer temperatures have made mineral extraction feasible. As the extraction industry grows, new jobs may draw migrants from outside the Arctic region. In 2011 companies spent $100 million on the exploration of minerals in the Artic, and the estimated number of new mines is expected to require more workers than now live in the region.17 79Currently, more people leave than migrate to Greenland.

The local Inuit population in Uummannaq, Greenland relies heavily on ice coverage for fishing and travel by traditional dog-sled.

Brookings-LSE Project on Internal Displacement, A Complex Constellation: Displacement, Climate Change and Arctic Peoples (January 30, 2013).

Brookings-LSE Project on Internal Displacement.

The effects of climate change on Sub-Saharan Africa vary depending on the region and have impacts on migration and security, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). Coastal areas, for example, in West and East Africa are at risk from sea level rise that could affect major cities. Drought and the risk of desertification in the Sahel is cited as a concern, as is increased rainfall in parts of Central Africa accompanied by lower agricultural yields. As desertification threatens the livelihoods of farmers and herders, and drought makes fishing more challenging, rural dwellers may be more likely to migrate to cities, according to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Urbanization and population growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is already making densely populated cities vulnerable to flooding, storms, and erosion, increasing the number of people at risk of displacement by sudden-onset disasters. Climate change effects and changing migration flows across Sub-Saharan Africa may impact access to natural resources and contribute to existing tensions and conflicts, according to UNEP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In Nigeria, the effects of climate change may effect a variety of livelihoods and increase migration south, while also exacerbating existing conflicts.

Nigeria: Climate Change, Migration, Stability and Security

Total Population 190,900,000 Fragile States Index #14 out of 178

The effects of climate change on Nigeria may impact the country’s agriculture and economy, according to the United States Institute of Peace (USIP). Higher temperatures and decreased rainfall have contributed to drought in northern Nigeria. Desertification is also a concern. Some regions in northern Nigeria have less than 10 inches of rain a year, an amount that has decreased by 25 percent since the 1980’s, according to USIP. In other areas across Nigeria flooding has resulted in major crop losses, according to UNEP. Rising sea level, water inundation, and erosion are concerns in Nigeria’s coastal areas. Rising sea level is predicted to pose medium to very high risks to Africa’s coastal areas by 2100, according to the IPCC. Future sea level rise could result in the inundation of over 70 percent of the Nigerian coast. A rise of 0.2 meters in sea level could risk billions of dollars in assets, including oil wells near the coast. Even without a rapid rise in sea level, Nigeria’s coastal areas could experience erosion and significant land loss by 2100, as the IPCC has reported.

The effects of climate change on livelihoods in northern Nigeria may contribute to migration to the south according to UNEP, while conflict in the north drives separate migration trends. As the effects of climate change make farming and fishing more challenging elsewhere in Nigeria, migration to southern coastal cities may increase. Traditionally, farmers, herders, and fishery workers migrated for temporary employment during the off season, including migration to Nigeria’s cities to work in the oil industry. Permanent migration south as well as to cities may become more common if land suitable for farming decreases. As fish habitats like Lake Chad dry up, fishery workers may also migrate. Larger urban populations on the coast will put more people at risk of sea level rise, water inundation, and erosion, according to the IPCC. A rise in sea level of 1 meter could put over 3 million people at risk of displacement as the IPCC has reported. Herders have also moved further south due to increased drought in northern Nigeria, as UNEP and USIP have reported. A 2010 survey of herdsmen in Nigeria, for example, found that nearly one-third of them had migrated southeast as a result of changes in the natural environment, according to the UNEP. The ongoing conflict with Boko Haram, while not caused by climate change, has further resulted in millions of displaced people across the Lake Chad region, including many Nigerians who have fled to Cameroon, Chad, and Niger.

Nigerian refugees at the Minawao camp in Cameroon.

Challenges in Stability and Security The effects of climate change, migration, and conflict are interconnected in Nigeria, as USIP has reported. The country is ranked 14th of 178 countries on the Fragile States Index. Events in northwest Africa, including Boko Haram’s attacks in Nigeria, have underscored concerns about the region’s vulnerability to the spread of violent extremism. The effects of climate change may exacerbate these concerns, according to USIP. Nigerians fleeing attacks from Boko Haram in the north have gone to communities in neighboring Chad, Cameroon, and Niger that are already experiencing food shortages due in part to climate change. These neighboring countries as a result have fewer resources to support both their own residents and the newer refugees. Non-state actors may also take advantage of government inaction on the effects of climate change. Boko Haram, for example, has justified its acts of violence by pointing to government failures, according to the USIP. Separately, increased drought in the north may aggravate historic tensions over land and water use between farmers in the south and herders migrating from the north, according to UNEP. Nigeria’s oil fields on the coast, which represent a significant part of the economy, are also at risk from sea level rise. Potential losses in oil revenue could impact Nigeria’s ability to respond to humanitarian crises and conflict at home. Increased violence within its borders could also affect Nigeria’s ability to support regional peacekeeping missions, such as the United Nations Mission in Liberia from 2003 to 2018, where Nigerian troops worked to restore security after a civil war.

The effects of climate change in the Middle East and North Africa, including on its desert regions, may impact water access and compound migration and stability challenges, according to the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP). Over 60 percent of the population already experiences high or very high water stress, according to the World Bank. Coupled with unsustainable water use, climate change may further exacerbate challenges with water security. The region continues to experience rising temperatures and declining annual rainfall, trends that contribute to the severity and length of drought, land degradation, and desertification. Decreased water security affects the livelihood and quality of life of farmers in the region, contributing to an increase in their migration to the cities and more urbanization, according to the World Bank. In contrast, many people are expected to migrate away from coastal cities as a result of sea level rise, according to UNEP. These potential migrations would be taking place in a region that already hosts large numbers of migrants such as those displaced by conflict and violence, including 18 percent of the world’s refugees, according to the International Organization for Migration. Challenges in water security may put greater pressure on unstable governments in the region, by intensifying existing tensions and conflicts between populations and their governments as well as between countries that share sources of water. The conflict in Syria illustrates the complex nature of climate change, migration, and conflict in the region, and the challenges to accurately assessing the links among the three, as noted in a technical paper commissioned by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

Syria: Climate Change, Migration, Stability and Security

Total Population 18,300,000

Rising temperatures and declining rainfall have contributed to recent droughts in Syria, a trend that may continue. The country underwent an extended drought from about 2006 until 2011. During the drought an estimated 60 percent of Syria experienced severe crop failure, and accompanying impacts on food security. Some studies have linked the length and severity of the drought in Syria to climate change, as USAID has reported. Others, however, have pointed to government land and water use policies, combined with the effects of climate change, as responsible for the severity of the drought. Agricultural policies, for example, encouraged farmers to grow water intensive crops like wheat, and supported inefficient irrigation practices, policies which further depleted ground water and made the region more vulnerable to decreases in rainfall linked to climate change. Across the Middle East, the rising temperatures and declining rainfalls of recent decades may worsen, according to the World Bank. If these trends continue, countries in the Middle East, including Syria, could continue to experience periods of severe drought and reduced crop yields.

Net Migration Rate per 1000 people -41.8

Map of Syria

Migration Trends The ongoing conflict in Syria, in which migration due to climate change may have been a contributing factor, has caused large-scale migration to neighboring countries in the Middle East and to Europe. Leading up to the civil war, prolonged drought, among other factors, had increased migration to Syrian cities. Because of the drought, in 2009, over 800,000 Syrians lost their livelihoods in the agricultural sector, while nearly 1 million experienced food insecurity. In 2010, an estimated 200,000 people migrated from farms in rural areas to cities, according to a UN report. The conflict in Syria, which began in 2011, has further displaced large numbers of people within the country and across the Middle East, as we have previously reported.At the beginning of the conflict, Syrians, as well as Iraqi and Palestinian refugees who had been residing in Syria, fled mainly to Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey. As the conflict persisted, refugees fled in larger numbers to Turkey, with the UNHCR reporting that nearly 1 million Syrians sought protection in that country in 2015. Starting that year, a growing number of Syrians risked dangerous sea voyages to reach countries in Europe, such as Greece, Germany, and Sweden. As of June 2017, more than 5 million registered Syrian refugees were living in neighboring countries, including more than 3 million in Turkey, and more than 1 million in Lebanon.

Challenges in Stability and Security Sources agree that the Syrian conflict is a significant security challenge that has resulted in large scale migration across the Middle East and to Europe. Yet the link between prolonged drought, rural to urban migration, and the current conflict in Syria is uncertain. Some academic sources argue that the increased strain on urban infrastructure and resources due to the rural to urban migration played a role in Syria’s growing instability. Others highlight the complex nature of the Syrian conflict, pointing to broader political factors that exacerbated resource scarcity and inequality. For example, as the drought intensified, the Syrian government downplayed the severity of the humanitarian crisis, as described in research cited in a technical report commissioned by USAID.result, appeals to the international community for emergency aid received minimal support. Combined with existing sectarian divisions, ongoing revolutions across the Middle East, and other factors, the government’s response to the drought may have contributed to the current conflict. Migration and displacement are a concern in the region, according to the Department of Defense and others. The U.S. government has provided significant humanitarian assistance for Syrian refugees in the Middle East, including in Lebanon and Jordan, as we have previously reported.However, a technical report commissioned by USAID has cautioned that the ongoing conflict in Syria makes it difficult to conduct research and draw conclusions related to climate, migration and conflict.

As a The effects of climate change on Oceania, particularly rising seas, may significantly impact coastal populations and increase migration in the future, as the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have reported. Rising temperatures and declining rainfall may also contribute to lower yields from fisheries and agriculture, and a significant decrease in coral reef cover. Extreme weather events, including higher temperatures, wind, and rainfall, have already increased in number and intensity across the region. In the majority of Pacific island nations, of those who migrate, more people leave than come, according to the African, Caribbean, and Pacific Observatory on Migration. The majority of migration in the region is economically driven. In the future, climate change may further impact these migration patterns across the region, according to the IPCC. Climate change has already exacerbated challenges that aid-dependent nations in the region face, restricting livelihoods and resources and contributing to pressures to migrate. The costs of climate change, including a decline in crop yields, a rise in energy demands, and a loss of coastal land, are predicted to be significant. The ADB estimates these costs will reach 12.7 percent of the Pacific regions’ GDP by 2100. Increased migration may also impact political stability and play a role in geopolitical rivalries within the region, according to the IPCC. The effects of climate change, especially rising sea levels, may result in forced migration from the Republic of the Marshall Islands (the Marshall Islands) and have additional impacts on the U.S. defense infrastructure on the islands.

Marshall Islands: Climate Change, Migration, Stability and Security

Total Population 100,000 Fragile States Index Not Available Human Development Index High Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Capita $3,819 Remittances as % of GDP 14.8 Agriculture, Fishing, Forestry as % of GDP 15.9 % Population in Cities 76.7 Net Migration Rate per 1000 people Not Available

Observed and Projected Effects of Climate Change Rising sea levels are a grave threat to the Marshall Islands.The country consists of islands, low-lying atolls—coral caps sitting on top of submerged volcanoes—making it particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels. On average, the Marshall Islands are 2 meters above sea level. In Majuro, the country’s most populous atoll, observed rates of sea level rise are already twice as fast as the global average. Population centers experience significant flooding, with damage to roads, houses, and infrastructure, especially during La Niña years, which are significantly wetter and more prone to extreme rainfall. Flooding is expected to worsen with rising sea levels, with consequences for the availabity of drinking water. On Roi-Namur island, for example, a 0.4 meter rise in sea level combined with wave-driven flooding is predicted to make groundwater undrinkable year round as early as 2055. This salt water inundation may contaminate already limited groundwater across the Marshall Islands. Lastly, during the 1940s and 1950s, the Marshall Islands was the site of 67 U.S. nuclear weapons tests on or near Bikini and Enewetak Atolls. Projected increases in frequency of flooding may negatively impact efforts to contain radioactive material stored on Runit Island.

A number of factors have increased migration from the Marshall Islands, including to the United States. In 1986, the United States entered into a compact of free association with the country that allowed its citizens to migrate to the United States, as we have previously reported. As a result, more than 20,000 Marshallese now live in the United States.People are more likely to migrate abroad as the effects of climate change on the Marshall Islands—including rising sea levels—increasingly impact livelihoods.The threat of mass displacement and forced migration is also a concern, as the International Organization for Migration has reported. However, Marshallese culture has a strong connection to the land, which means that many view migration as a last resort. For people still living in the Marshall Islands, they face overpopulation in urban centers and displacement by sudden-onset disasters like cyclones and flooding. Factors influencing people deciding to move abroad include displacement, lack of economic opportunity—sometimes exacerbated by climate change—and limited access to health care. Climate change is likely to increase risks to public health in the country.Increased rainfall, for instance, may expand mosquito breeding grounds, raising the risk of diseases like dengue fever. The country’s limited health care system may further contribute to migration from the islands.

Challenges in Stability and Security In the future, the Marshall Islands may become uninhabitable. This prospect threatens the existence of the Marshall Islands as a sovereign state, as well as the United States defense facilities located on the islands. The total loss of land could result in the Marshall Islands being uninhabitable, which raises problems of migration, resettlement, cultural survival, and sovereignty. Relocation of the population of the Marshall Islands, and of other Pacific Island nations at risk of rising seas, could cause significant geopolitical challenges.The Marshall Islands are also of strategic importance for the United States. Under the Compact of Free Association, the United States has permission to use several islands— including Kwajalein Atoll, the location of the Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile Defense Test Range—until 2066. The country’s proximity to the equator makes the Marshall Islands ideal for missile defense and space work. Yet the island’s defense infrastructure and operations are at significant risk due to rising sea levels, flooding, and diminishing supplies of potable water. As the Department of Defense has noted, climate change will have serious implications for the department’s ability to maintain its infrastructure and ensure military readiness in the future.

DOD, 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap (Alexandria, VA: June 2014).

The effects of climate change on Central America and the Caribbean may increase migration and exacerbate poverty rates, as the National Intelligence Council has reported. The climate in Central America and the Caribbean is predicted to be warmer and dryer. The Caribbean’s extensive coastlines and low-lying areas are vulnerable to sea level rise and an increase in sudden-onset disasters, including hurricanes and storm surges. Drought is a particular concern in Central America, where declines in rainfall have reduced crop yields and threatened livelihoods in recent years. Some evidence shows that drought in parts of Central America has contributed to migration north, including to the United States. Population growth, especially in coastal cities, has increased the number of people at risk during hurricane season, and the number and intensity of hurricanes have grown in recent years. Some attribute the increase in intensity to higher sea surface temperatures caused by climate change. However, there remains debate about long term hurricane trends. Recent hurricanes have caused displacement, and significant losses and damages—including to infrastructure—across the region. The depletion of coral reefs and mangrove trees, natural barriers to coastal erosion and flooding, has exacerbated vulnerability to storms in coastal areas. Climate change is likely to have negative impacts on tourism in the Caribbean, where the industry is an important part of the economy, according to Inter-American Development Bank. Climate change impacts on the economy may make it increasingly difficult for governments to reduce poverty and move towards environmental sustainability. Haiti’s geography, location, and high poverty rates make the country especially vulnerable.

Haiti: Climate Change, Migration, Stability and Security

Total Population

Haiti is highly vulnerable to climate change effects, partly due to its long coastline.Hurricanes routinely make landfall in the country, and increases in rainfall and wind speeds associated with hurricanes are likely. Severe hurricanes, including Hurricane Matthew in September 2016, have hit Haiti in recent years. Hurricane Matthew was the first category 4 storm in Haiti since 1964. Damage from severe flooding and severe winds during the hurricane affected over 2 million people and created significant food security and public health challenges. Significant deforestation has further exacerbated Haiti’s vulnerability to hurricanes, as trees previously provided a natural barrier to the erosion that strong winds and more rainfall can cause. Rising temperature and highly variable rainfall have led to extreme drought and flash flooding, according to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).32 2 These trends decrease crop yields, affecting the livelihoods of farmers, and threaten water access. Projected increase in temperature and decreases in rainfall are likely to intensify drought in Haiti’s interior.

USAID, Haiti: Environment and Climate Change Fact Sheet (January 2016).

Migration Trends Slow-onset climate events, such as drought, and rising sea levels, and sudden-onset events, including earthquakes, affect Haiti, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM). Haiti is also particularly exposed to extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, which can lead to displacement. In January 2010, a catastrophic earthquake in Haiti killed an estimated 230,000 people and left close to 1.5 million people homeless. According to IOM, the recurrence of environmental disruptions increases risks and vulnerabilities. When Hurricane Sandy struck Haiti in October 2012, the country had still not recovered from the 2010 earthquake. The worsening of climate change effects around the world, particularly in low-income countries, may increase the number of people wanting to immigrate to the United States, where approximately 700,000 Haitians live today.Remittances from family members living outside Haiti make up a significant portion of the economy, at 24.7 percent of GDP. The majority of these remittances come from the United States, as we have previously reported.34 4Remittances may support resilience to climate change effects as migrants send money home for disaster recovery and adaptation.

Challenges in Stability and Security Haiti, the poorest country in the western hemisphere, has experienced political instability for most of its history, and ranks 12th of 178 on the Fragile States Index. The government has a low capacity to respond to additional challenges like those related to climate change, according to USAID. The Ministry of Environment, for example, is a relatively new organization within the Haitian government, and local and regional governments have a limited ability to enforce environmental laws and regulations. The United States has provided substantial aid to Haiti, both in disaster response and broader development projects. Official development assistance for Haiti in 2015, for instance, totaled slightly more than $1 billion. According to a January 2018 UN report, 2.8 million people were still in need of humanitarian assistance.

GAO, Remittances To Fragile Countries: Treasury Should Assess Risks from Shifts to Non-Banking Channels, GAO-18-313 (Washington, D.C., March 8, 2018).

Appendix III: Department of State Global Climate Change Initiative Adaptation Activities Funded in Fiscal Years 2014 through 2017

The Department of State’s Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs (State/OES) provided about $78 million in adaptation funding from the Global Climate Change Initiative for eight projects for fiscal years 2014 through 2017 (see table 2).

The Global Climate Change Initiative was established in 2010 to promote resilient, low- emission development, and integrate climate change considerations into U.S. foreign assistance and was divided into three main programmatic initiatives: (1) Adaptation assistance, (2) Clean Energy assistance, and (3) Sustainable Landscapes assistance.

Activity name

The primary purpose of these contributions to the LDCF was to address the adaptation needs of the least developed countries, which are especially vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. The LDCF financed the preparation and implementation of National Adaptation Programs of Action, which identify a country’s priorities for adaptation actions.

Initial grant to the National Adaptation Plans Global Network. The network is focused on increasing the capacity of national and subnational governments to identify and assess climate risks, integrate these risk considerations in sector planning, develop a pipeline of projects to address risks, identify and secure funding for projects, and track progress toward resilience targets.

Colombia, East Caribbean (Guyana, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines), Ethiopia, Peru, South Africa, Uganda, West Africa (Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Togo) and, under current consideration, East Caribbean (Dominica, Suriname), and Pacific (Fiji, Kiribati, Tuvalu)

The cost amendment intensified the technical support on National Adaptation Plans to select countries dependent upon specific country adaption needs. In addition, the cost amendment continued the learning and progress from the initial grant.

Implemented through the Department of Treasury, this funding supported a Treasury grant to the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative Multi Donor Trust Fund at the World Bank. This activity established the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Foundation and the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Company, among other things.

Activity name

The goal of PIER is to increase private sector investment in resilience to climate change in eight developing countries. The first phase of the project will assess and identify opportunities for private investment in resilience, as well as build public and private capacity for climate risk assessment in all the countries. In the second phase, public and private sector partners will develop and pilot climate risk-reduction investment models in four of the countries. The third phase will publicize the piloted investment models and lessons learned among the eight countries.

Implemented through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, this activity aims to implement a capacity-building partnership with India to promote effective climate resilient decision making at national, state, and local levels.

Appendix IV: Comments from the Department of State

Appendix V: Comments from the U.S. Agency for International Development

Appendix VI: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments

Acknowledgments

In addition to the contacts named above, the following individuals made key contributions to this report: Miriam Carroll Fenton (Assistant Director), Kristy Williams (Assistant Director), Rachel Girshick (Analyst-in-Charge), Nancy Santucci, Miranda Cohen, Aldo Salerno, Neil Doherty, and Judith Williams. Alexander Welsh, Justin Fisher, and Joseph Thompson provided technical and other support.

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Compacts Of Free Association: Actions Needed to Prepare for The Transition of Micronesia and the Marshall Islands to Trust Fund Income. GAO-18-415. Washington, D.C.: May 17, 2018.

Remittances to Fragile Countries: Treasury Should Assess Risks from Shifts to Non-Banking Channels. GAO-18-313. Washington, D.C.: March 8, 2018.

Syrian Refugees: U.S. Agencies Conduct Financial Oversight Activities for Humanitarian Assistance but Should Strengthen Monitoring. GAO-18-58. Washington, D.C.: October 31, 2017.

International Food Assistance: Agencies Should Ensure Timely Documentation of Required Market Analyses and Assess Local Markets for Program Effects. GAO-17-640. Washington, D.C.: July 13, 2017.

High-Risk Series: Progress on Many High-Risk Areas, While Substantial Efforts Needed on Others. GAO-17-317. Washington, D.C.: February 15, 2017.

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Hurricane Sandy: An Investment Strategy Could Help the Federal Government Enhance National Resilience for Future Disasters. GAO-15-515. Washington, D.C.: July 30, 2015.

High-Risk Series: An Update. GAO-15-290. Washington, D.C.: February 11, 2015.

Standards for Internal Control in the Federal Government. GAO-14-704G. Washington, D.C.: September 10, 2014.

Combating Terrorism: U.S. Efforts in Northwest Africa Would Be Strengthened by Enhanced Program Management. GAO-14-518. Washington, D.C.: June 24, 2014.

Climate Change Adaptation: DOD Can Improve Infrastructure Planning and Processes to Better Account for Potential Impacts. GAO-14-446. Washington, D.C.: May 30, 2014.

Extreme Weather Events: Limiting Federal Fiscal Exposure and Increasing the Nation’s Resilience. GAO-14-364T. Washington, D.C.: February 12, 2014.

Climate Change: State Should Further Improve Its Reporting on Financial Support to Developing Countries to Meet Future Requirements and Guidelines. GAO-13-829. Washington, D.C.: September 19, 2013.

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International Climate Change Assessments: Federal Agencies Should Improve Reporting and Oversight of U.S. Funding. GAO-12-43. Washington, D.C.: November 17, 2011.

Climate Change Adaptation: Federal Efforts to Provide Information Could Help Government Decision Making. GAO-12-238T. Washington, D.C.: November 16, 2011.

Foreign Relation: Kwajalein Atoll Is the Key U.S. Defense Interest in Two Micronesian Nations, GAO-02-119. Washington D.C.: January 22, 2002.