Trends in Terrorism: 2006
Released: 2007-03-12T00:00:00

Background

Purpose and Scope of Report

This report summarizes and discusses trends in terrorism as identified in recent analyses by the State Department, the National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC), and independent analysts. Potential issues for Congress arising out of these analyses are identified and discussed as well.

This report is one of several related CRS reports discussing issues related to trends in terrorism. A selection of additional CRS reports addressing terrorism issues of likely to be of concern to the 110 th Congress is found at the conclusion of this report.

Definition of Trends

For the purposes of this report, trends in terrorism can be defined as changes in the type, number, and lethality of terrorist attacks ( modus operandi ), attitudes of terrorist groups, and other factors, over time. Changes in terrorist infrastructure such as those related to command and control, capabilities, recruiting, and financing are often considered particularly meaningful. What are the capabilities of a terrorist group to inflict serious damage? Are they increasing or decreasing? For example, a large number of terrorist groups might be seeking to acquire a nuclear, chemical, or biological explosive device but may lack the resources or capability to achieve this objective and the technical expertise to employ such technology. In what ways are terrorist capabilities and expertise changing?

Relevant as well is whether the leadership of a particular terrorist group or network is being weakened; is its recruitment base, network, or target list growing; and is the number of defectors from its ranks increasing or decreasing? To what degree may an organization be changing its role from an operational one to an ideological/inspirational one? Have the intentions or ideology of a movement or group changed and if so are they more or less radical—more or less focused on causing widespread damage? Are they becoming increasingly involved in criminal activities or seeking to cause violence for its own sake? Also relevant are changes in levels of popular and government support for specific terrorist organizations.

Importance of Trends

Identifying trends as indicators of terrorist activity can assist policymakers in a number of areas including (1) prioritizing counter-terror resources; (2) targeting terrorists and terrorist activity with the intention of preventing attacks; and (3) showing anti-terror progress where it has been achieved.

In addition to trends influencing government responses, government anti-terrorism strategies and tactics may also affect terrorism trends. For example, hardening U.S. government physical infrastructure overseas or in the United States might cause terrorists to shift the focus of attacks to softer non-government targets, or to employ new explosion delivery methods such as improvised explosive devices (IEDs), or to deploy suicide bombers. Likewise, better systems to evaluate the authenticity and content of travel entry documents at lawful U.S. ports of entry might prompt terrorists to switch from the legal entry tactics employed by the 9/11 hijackers to crossing the U.S. border at unsecured locations.

Trends in terrorism may also be influenced by responses perceived by terrorists as directly related to advancing their cause or detracting from it—such as the number of governments that embrace appeasement policies—and the amount of media coverage the terrorists receive. A related issue is how U.S. policies and actions affect trends in terrorists' popular support and recruiting. Has the U.S. intervention in Iraq, for example, led to the demotivation, detention, or killing of more terrorists than the number of individuals it may have radicalized in areas important to U.S. interests around the world?

Some analysts question whether the diverse nature of individual terrorists and terrorist networks—which often seek to cultivate surprise—allows for meaningful trend analysis. Others point out the potential pitfall of using past trends as predictors of future activity, such as assuming that because a particular activity has not been observed for a long period of time, there is no concomitant threat. The absence of violent conflict or even decreases in terrorist activity may simply mean that terrorists are focusing attention on economic, political, or social spheres, or just that they are in a planning or "waiting period." Another potential pitfall is to project trends in a linear fashion. Such projections can miss qualitative changes in modus operandi, particularly those that move to new types of terror.

Trends are usually identified by the executive branch and independent analysts on the basis of empirical data collected by public and private sources. As the global economic, political, and technological landscape evolves, and as terrorists may seek to surprise and attack through more fluid organizational structures and in innovative ways, data being collected to identify and track terrorism may need to change. Hence, one challenge facing the counter-terrorism community is how to facilitate incorporation of new data indicative of new trends while maintaining the continuity of earlier data where relevant. Another challenge is how to anticipate sinister trends and prevent them before they materialize. Such anticipation, supported by accurate intelligence, is widely regarded as central to an effective policy of deterrence and preemption.

Markedly different pictures can be presented depending on what one chooses to include in data relating to terrorism. For example, some would argue that the Iraq casualties—which are largely the product of sectarian violence, rampant criminal activity, and home grown insurgency—grossly distort the global terrorism picture and perhaps should not be attributed to terrorist activity. According to NCTC data, outside of Iraq, the total number of incidents with ten or more deaths remained at approximately the 2003-2004 level—70 per year. This suggests that, excluding Iraq, the number of higher casualty terror attacks remains relatively stable.

Reported Trends in Terrorism

2006 State Department Report

On April 28, 2006, the Department of State sent to Congress its annual report on global terrorism: Country Reports on Global Terrorism 2005. Statistical data on terrorist incidents, which form the basis for the report's analysis, are provided by the newly created National Counter Terrorism Center (NCTC). The 262-page report provides an annual strategic assessment of trends in terrorism and the evolving nature of the terrorist threat, coupled with detailed information on anti-terror cooperation by nations worldwide. The report focuses on trends related to: (1) state sponsors of terrorism; (2) foreign terrorist organizations; (3) the terrorist situation in individual countries (including those that provide safe haven for terrorists); (4) potential terrorist acquisition of weapons of mass destruction (WMD); and (5) U.S. anti-terrorism coalition building efforts and cooperative endeavors. Within its discussion of policies intended to shape trends in a desired direction, the report emphasizes building international will and capacity for counterterrorism, including the issue of countering terrorism on the economic front.

The report and underlying data portray a threat from radical Jihadists which is becoming more widespread, diffuse, possibly more deadly, and increasingly homegrown , often with a lack of apparent formal operational connection with al Qaeda ideological leaders although perhaps inspired by them or assisted through training. This homegrown phenomenon of looser, and more local, networks was manifest in the May 2003 restaurant, hotel, and Jewish cultural center bombings in Morocco; the 2004 attacks on Madrid's trains; the July 7 and July 21, 2005 terrorist attacks on London's transit system; and more recently—after the report's release—in the June 2, 2006, arrests of 12 men and 5 juveniles in Ontario, Canada on bombing conspiracy-related charges. This emergence of a global-homegrown terror movement has lent itself to the characterization of terrorism as a "glocal" phenomenon.

Five major trends in the evolution of terrorism are included in the State Department report:

More Micro-Actors

The report depicts the emergence of micro-actors as having been spurred by the widespread use of the internet, militant preachers and the impact of Arabic language television, coupled with U.S. and allied successes in capturing, isolating, and killing much of al Qaeda's leadership in Afghanistan, thereby reducing its centralized command and control capability. The result, according to the report, is an al Qaeda seen to be assuming more of an ideological, motivational, propaganda role, and a reduced operational role.

The report views the operational component of the movement as increasingly being assumed by small autonomous cells and individuals—often homegrown with a resultant diversity in identity profiles, structures, motives, and tactics. Such operational cells may be new to the terrorism landscape, may be technologically savvy and small, decentralized, and without regular communication with other groups or cells. These characteristics make their actions extremely difficult to detect or counter. As a result, according to the report, a growing percentage of future terrorist attacks may be carried out by micro-actors using traditional bombs and bullets rather than more lethal weapons.

Increased Sophistication

Increasingly, according to the report, terrorists are seen as exploiting the global movement of information, finance, and ideas to their benefit. They are also seen as improving their technological sophistication across many areas of operational planning, communications, targeting, and propaganda. According to some observers, terrorism has become a "web directed" phenomenon.

Overlap with International Crime

The report describes a growing overlap between terrorism and international crime. Such a trend, to the extent that terrorists do indeed use the same supply, transport, and money-moving networks used by criminal groups, creates a major vulnerability that can be exploited by law enforcement authorities: the more terrorists engage in non-terror forms of criminal activity, the more likely they are to show up on the law enforcement radar screen and the more likely they are to be subject to arrest and prosecution under a far reaching umbrella of general criminal statutes and more specific terror related laws as well.

Increase in Suicide Bombings/Links between U.S. Iraqi Operations and Global Terror

Also cited in the report are an increase in suicide bombings, and a strong connection between the ongoing unrest in Iraq and the broader war on terrorism. Terror incidents in Iraq, according to the report, accounted for almost a third of all terror incidents globally in 2005 and more than half of all the terror related deaths worldwide. There is concern that Iraq will become an exporter of seasoned terrorists, weapons, and shared tactics—especially the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) with "spillover" not only into the neighboring Gulf nations, but to Europe and other regions as well.

Decline in State-Sponsored Terrorism16

Aside from Iran, and perhaps to some degree Syria , the report suggests that, with a few notable exceptions, active state sponsorship of terror is declining. The report continues to list Iran as the most active state sponsor of terrorism. As in previous years, Syria is cited for providing political and material support (presumably weapons) to both Hizballah and Palestinian terrorist groups, which also enjoy sanctuary in Syria. Cuba and North Korea are primarily cited for lack of anti-terror cooperation and past involvement in terrorist incidents thereby possibly suggesting a trend of less active support for terrorism than in previous decades.

The report says that the Saudi Government "carried out numerous operations resulting in the capture or killing of all 26 wanted terrorists publicized in a December 2003 state announcement." The report cites close cooperation with Pakistan ' s security services and notes that Pakistan "captured or killed hundreds of terrorists, significantly increasing the effectiveness of its counterterrorism operation," and stresses that President Musharraf has declared a "Jihad on extremism" and promised to close down extremist institutions. Some observers might argue, however, that the report tends to mute criticism of nations of strategic importance to the United States, such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, that arguably could do much more to curb terror .

Echoing language of previous years' versions of the report, the 2006 edition states that Libya and Sudan "continued to take significant steps to cooperate in the global war on terror." Although specific examples of cooperation are cited for each of the two nations, the report—which was drafted and went to press early in 2006—otherwise contained little to support speculation that Libya would be subsequently proposed for removal from the U.S. list of state sponsors of international terrorism.

2005 NCTC Statistical Data

Beginning with data collected in 2005, the NCTC substantially revised its methodology for reporting incidents and increased the priority and number of personnel assigned to compiling data on terrorism incidents and trends, leading to what Administration officials characterize as more accurate and comprehensive reporting. These methodological changes contributed to a significant increase in the reported number of terrorism incidents.

Data released by the NCTC concurrently with the Department of State's 2006 terror report indicate the following:

In 2005, the NCTC lists roughly 40,000 individuals wounded or killed in terrorist incidents as compared to 9,300 the previous year and 4,271 in 2003. Reported terror-related deaths in 2005 numbered 14,602 as compared to 1,907 deaths in 2004 and 625 in 2003. The report placed the number of total reported terrorist attacks in 2005 at 11,111 as compared to 3,168 in 2004 and 208 in 2003. Foiled attacks are not included in the data reported.

Other highlights of the NCTC's data include:

armed attacks and bombings accounted for the vast majority of fatalities in 2005. of the 11,111 attacks reported, 6,000 or roughly 54%, were against facilities and resulted in no casualties. of the approximately 40,000 persons worldwide killed or wounded—at least 10 to 15 thousand were Muslim with approximately 80 mosques being attacked, in most cases by Muslim extremists, with a high percentage of these incidents occurring in Iraq. approximately 6,600 police, 1000 children, 300 government officials, 170 clergy/religious figures, 140 teachers, and 100 journalists were killed or wounded by terrorists in 2005.

Trends Reported by Other Sources

Trends in terrorist activity have been the subject of analysis by many other organizations and analysts. In many instances, such independent analysis is consistent with the trends identified by the State Department in its recent report. In some instances, the emergence of additional trends is also suggested. For example, a 2006 report by the Netherlands Central Intelligence and Security Services cites trends of:

increasing home grown terrorism; decentralization and implantation of international jihad; radicalization and emergence of local networks and; incitement of jihad through the internet—to include self-radicalization, possibly of lone operating terrorists.

A multi-authored 2005 study by the RAND Corporation finds:

increased focus on soft civilian-focused targets; ongoing emphasis on economic attacks; continued reliance on suicide attacks; a desire to attack with WMD but little ability to execute attacks; more homegrown attacks and; the possibility of future attacks from the far right, anarchists, and radical environmentalists.

Trends noted by others include

decreases in the average age of terrorist recruits; greater organizational/operational roles for women and non-Muslims; potentially more terrorist acts rooted in a "backlash" against the impact of globalization; more near-simultaneous coordinated attacks with follow-up attacks on first responders; potentially wider use by criminals of terrorist-type tactics; more terrorists acts that remain unclaimed by those committing them; and an overall rise in the number of terrorist attacks, potentially encompassing acts rooted in a variety of causes and committed by a growing diversity of groups and individuals.

Some of the core "terrorism-enabling" factors that these sources view as contributing to and facilitating many of the trends highlighted by the Department of State and others include:

Weak legal and law enforcement systems in some countries that enable terrorist and criminal networks to operate with relative ease; Expanded, instant, and often relatively anonymous or secure communications and networking channels offered to terrorists by the Internet; and The potential for "spillover" of battlefield skills, technology and ordnance from Iraq.

Issues for the 110th Congress

Consistency/Compatibility and Significance of Data

One important issue raised by the Department of State report is whether data released by the NCTC concomitantly with the 2006 terror report can be used to support categorical assessments of trends in terrorist activity, since both the methodology for compiling such data and the resources devoted to the data have significantly changed over time. Others might argue that in a long-term struggle against terror it may not be critical whether terrorist incidents are up or down within a particular time-frame. In the view of these observers, what might be more critical is the need to recognize that terror remains an evolving widespread, ongoing, deadly, and sustained threat that must be addressed on many fronts, and even if the data should indicate downturns in terrorist incidents, policymakers need to beware a false sense of complacency or victory.

A Weakened al Qaeda?

A controversial and politically volatile issue raised by the Department of State report is to what extent al Qaeda has been weakened operationally in the wake of capture and killing of a substantial number of its leaders and operatives. The common perception, correct or not, is that al Qaeda's command and control capabilities have been weakened to the point that the network is unwilling or unable to conduct operations, thereby prompting an evolution in al Qaeda's role to one of ideological inspiration and guidance. An alternate perspective is that a resilient and adaptive al Qaeda is planning the next mega-attack(s) and not wanting to get involved on the operational level in smaller scale attacks until execution of its next major operation. Under such a mindset, involvement in operations before the next mega-attack is simply not a goal—topping the destruction and economic damage of 9/11 is. Moreover, the terrorists may calculate that operational involvement prior to the next mega-attack could compromise both the mega-attack and the organization as well, a risk they may not want to take. An exception however, would appear to be ongoing operational engagement in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq.

The Rise in Influence of Radical Islamist Political Parties

One trend that some observers view as not sufficiently emphasized in the State Department report is the overall growth in numbers and political influence of radical Islamist fundamentalist political parties throughout the world, some of which reportedly serve—or might serve—as fronts for terrorist activity. Even if not actively serving as fronts for terrorist activity, some are concerned that the actions and agendas of such groups could facilitate creation of a political climate in their home countries which views terrorism as a politically acceptable tactic and which might make their home countries appear as an attractive location for active terrorist groups to establish a secure base. Examples of such groups cited by scholars and the media include the Justice and Prosperity Party and the Mujaheddin Council (MMI) in Indonesia, the Party Islam in Malaysia, and more recently the Islamic Courts Union which, as of the writing of this report, controlled much of southern Somalia. Groups in Pakistan are notable as well, especially the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA or United Action Forum) and another long-standing Islamist party, the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam faction led by Maulana Fazlur Rehman (JUI-F).

Additional examples of the success of terror linked political groups include (1) the Hizballah political party in Lebanon with 14 elected representatives in the National Assembly as well as two ministers in the Government; and (2) the popularly elected Hamas-led legislature of the Palestinian Authority, which won by a landslide in January 2006, giving the party control of the governing Palestinian National Authority. Any rise in the power and influence of terror-linked or terror-supportive political parties—especially should their representatives be elected through democratic processes—presents major policy dilemmas for the United States, since it pits U.S. support for democracy directly against America's commitment to aggressively combat terrorism.

Adequacy of International Anti-terror Cooperation

Another potential issue related to the State Department report involves the adequacy of international anti-terrorism cooperation, an avowed core component of U.S. anti-terror strategy. Whereas the State Department's Country Reports on Terrorism report provides substantive in-depth data and analysis on levels of anti-terrorism cooperation with individual countries on an individual basis, as well as cooperative efforts underway using international or regional organizations, some argue that it does not collectively link such levels of cooperation—or lack thereof—to any overall trend or trends. In the aggregate, are levels of foreign nation support or "buy-in" for U.S. counter-terror policy and programs increasing or decreasing? Critics suggest any effort to plot trends in international cooperation would be quite speculative and prone to stress quantitative factors, such as the number of countries meeting certain cooperative levels, rather than the relative importance of each country's cooperation to United States strategic goals and objectives.

What Are the Trends Related to Schools Teaching Radical Jihadism?

Schools for youth in countries where there is teaching of radical Jihadism and affiliated intolerance and hatred may serve as a breeding ground for terrorist ideology and pro-terrorist sentiment. Madrasas, religious schools often backed by Saudi money, are often perceived to encourage militancy and are a particular concern in Pakistan, especially in areas along the Afghanistan border. Therefore, it would seem important to have a better understanding of trends concerning these schools and their curricula.

Terror Groups Evolving into Criminal Groups

The overlap of terrorist activity with international crime presented by the Department of State's report suggests yet another challenge for consideration: To what degree, if at all, will terrorist organizations increasingly morph into criminal networks motivated by profit rather than ideology. It might be, at some later point in time, some terrorist groups would shy away from terrorism which is generally not considered good for criminal business activity. This is in line with thinking that engaging in criminal activity—especially the lucrative illicit drug trade—can become self-perpetuating as such criminal activity often becomes institutionalized making it difficult for groups to disengage themselves. A classic example involves the so-called Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) which initially provided hired protection to coca leaf growers and processors and subsequently moved into coca cultivation and processing. Notwithstanding, a more likely scenario appears to be that micro-terror actors will remain terror focused, but will increasingly turn to crime to finance terror.

Resource Allocation Between Larger and Smaller Attacks

Both the Department of State's trend analysis and that of non-government specialists paint a picture of Jihadist-inspired terror groups consumed by the desire to inflict major physical and economic damage with little ideological or moral constraints on mass casualty attacks. Some in these groups appear to be actively seeking the material, technology, and skills to carry out such attacks and, indeed, may already possess them. On the other hand, the number of day-to-day "low-tech" terror attacks using more traditional bombs and bullets appears to be dramatically rising in frequency and cannot be downplayed.

This situation might pose a challenge in allocating resources. Should anti-terrorism efforts and resources worldwide concentrate on preventing or mitigating the growing phenomenon of day-to-day relatively low impact and low casualty terrorist attacks, or should they concentrate on preventing or mitigating possible catastrophic damage mass-casualty attacks on a scale heretofore not experienced, but which may not be imminent? Are there measures which could negatively impact on both types of terrorist interest and activity?

Responding to Unclaimed/Anonymous Terrorism

Another potential issue is how to respond to the growing number of terrorist attacks that are unattributed, or claimed in a manner in which the true identity of their perpetrators is masked. Such a trend might suggest that increasingly the goal of terrorist attacks is to inflict as much damage on the enemy as possible without linking attacks to specific goals, such as the release of prisoners, and with little importance given to gaining publicity for the specific group inflicting the damage. Terrorists may believe that recruitment and popular support for terrorism will increase after each successful attack, and that it is relatively immaterial for the perpetrating group to publically identify itself. Moreover, not revealing—or masking—the real identity of the perpetrating group makes it more difficult for law enforcement or retaliatory operations to effectively target them.

In some instances it may not even be possible to determine if a particular event is an act of terror. For example, is a particular train wreck, an explosion at a chemical plant, a forest fire, an increase in computer viruses, or an outbreak of BSE or West Nile virus, the result of negligence, an act of terror or an act of God?

Although there may not yet be sufficient data to confirm such a trend towards anonymous terror attacks, some homed in on the phenomenon of "stealth terrorism" as early as June of 1991 when it was discussed at a joint American Academy of Science/Russian Academy of Science workshop on high-impact terrorism. More recently, research conducted by the National Journal , which was largely based on State Department data, found that in 2001 about 20% of the attacks in the government's database were not claimed by any terrorist organization; in 2002, it was 40%; in 2003, it was slightly more than half; and in 2004, more than 70% of attacks carried no claim of responsibility. If validated, such a trend would have a direct impact on anti-terror policies, since current doctrines of deterrence of, and retaliation for, terrorist acts are predicated on: (1) identifying acts of terrorism and (2) identifying those who commit them.

Some Implications for U.S. Policy

Looking at NCTC data in the aggregate, one might reasonably conclude that terrorists are becoming less constrained and more indiscriminate in their targeting, thereby inflicting casualties on a broader range of potential targets and victims. Moreover, the State Department's Country Reports on Terrorism 2005 argues that the threat from small terrorist groups or lone terrorists is rising in frequency, as is the potential for these micro-actors to inflict deadly harm and costly economic damage. This finding appears consistent with other research and analyses. If the trend continues the immediate future is likely to bring "a larger number of smaller attacks, less meticulously planned, and local rather than transnational in scope." On the other hand, "an increasing number of such attacks could fail through lack of skill or equipment...."

Of growing concern is what many see as a trend by terrorists to launch near-simultaneous multiple attacks aimed at causing economic damage—such as attacks on transportation, tourism, and oil related targets and infrastructures. For example, in February 2006, Saudi security forces thwarted a suicide attack at an oil processing facility in the eastern part of that nation. An al Qaeda affiliated website subsequently claimed responsibility. A wave of arrests in the Saudi Arabia in late March 2006 reportedly thwarted a second refinery attack.

If terrorist acts are becoming more the product of localized micro-actors, it raises the question of whether United States anti-terror strategy and tactics should reflect a more international law-enforcement oriented approach. Such an approach was envisioned in the February 2003 National Strategy for Combating Terrorism . For example, the inclusion of the Drug Enforcement Administration's Office of National Security Intelligence as a member of the Intelligence Community will put in place new structures to share information on the ties between international terrorism and international drug trafficking. Increased sharing and cooperation between the law enforcement and the intelligence communities could well lead to disrupting some of the ties between terrorist and criminal groups, potentially "defunding" some terrorist activities.

Overall, policymakers may consider expanding programs that support foreign law enforcement training and educational exchanges, joint/multilateral training exercises, the creation of bi-lateral or multilateral law enforcement task forces, staff exchanges of detailees among foreign and domestic law enforcement agencies, and expansion of so-called "rule of law" programs. Some observers call for more vigorous, focused, and better funded public diplomacy initiatives to counter terrorist efforts to generate popular support and gain recruits.

Collection and analysis of data which may reveal trends over time might also be strengthened. Some might argue that it could serve United States and allied interests to see more data analyzed and exchanged on terrorist motivations, tactics, and organizations by a wide range of institutions in the public and private sector. Greater participation in this process by industry, governments, and academia might prove fruitful. However, compiling and sharing the data on a timely basis may present yet another daunting challenge.

Most agree that the evidence shows that terrorists are seeking to kill as many people as possible and concentrating on hitting economic targets such as support infrastructure and tourism—rather than seeking to achieve immediate political objectives such as gaining the release of prisoners. If correct, this might argue for hardening targets, improving the technology and placement of detection equipment, and generally beefing-up the nation's ability to respond to large scale disasters—whether caused by acts of God or acts of terror.

For Additional Reading

CRS Report RS21937, 9/11 Terrorism: Global Economic Costs , by [author name scrubbed].

CRS Report RL32759, Al Qaeda: Statements and Evolving Ideology , by [author name scrubbed].

CRS Report RL33038, Al Qaeda: Profile and Threat Assessment , by [author name scrubbed].

CRS Report RL30252, Intelligence and Law Enforcement: Countering Transnational Threats to the U.S. , by [author name scrubbed]

CRS Report RS22211, Islamist Extremism in Europe , coordinated by [author name scrubbed].

CRS Report RL32816, The National Counterterrorism Center: Implementation Challenges and Issues for Congress , by [author name scrubbed].

CRS Report RS22373, Navy Role in Irregular Warfare and Counterterrorism: Background and Issues for Congress , by [author name scrubbed].

CRS Report RL31672, Terrorism in Southeast Asia , by [author name scrubbed] et al.

CRS Report 97-960. Terrorism, the Media, and the Government: Perspectives. Trends, and Options for Policymakers , by Raphael Perl. (Archived: available from the author.)

CRS Report RL32758, U.S. Military Operations in the Global War on Terrorism: Afghanistan, Africa, the Philippines, and Colombia , by [author name scrubbed].