India’s 2019 National Election and Implications for U.S. Interests
Released: 2019-06-28T00:00:00

Overview

India is a federal parliamentary republic and the world's most populous democracy, with more than 1.3 billion citizens. In the spring of 2019 the country held elections to seat its 17 th Lok Sabha (House of the People), the 545-seat lower chamber of parliament and locus of Indian political power. Results were announced on May 23, with the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP, or Indian Peoples Party) winning a sweeping and repeat victory under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Having in 2014 become the first party to attain a parliamentary majority (52%) in 30 years, the BJP was able to expand that majority to 56% in 2019, becoming the first party to win consecutive majorities since 1971. The dynastic Indian National Congress (hereinafter, Congress Party)âwhich had dominated the country's politics from 1947 to 1977 and led a national coalition government from 2004 to 2014âagain failed to win the 10% minimum of seats required to officially lead the Lok Sabha opposition. Powerful regional and caste-based parties likewise posed no meaningful obstacles to the latest "BJP wave."

The Administration of President Donald Trump is seeking to expand upon a "strategic partnership" with India formally launched in 2005. Progress is ongoing, most notably in the area of defense and security cooperation. The U.S. Congress has been supportive of efforts to expand and deepen the bilateral partnership, formally designating India as a "Major Defense Partner" of the United States in 2016. Areas of engagement are broad and include an array of economic and security initiatives. Recent bilateral frictions have arisen over trade practices, religious freedom, and India's relations with Russia and Iran.

A State Department release congratulated Prime Minister Modi and his ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition for their "decisive victory," and it applauded the Indian people for turning out in historic numbers and the Indian government for "exceptional execution of this massive undertaking." It went on to declare that

The United States and India enjoy a strong strategic partnership that stands on a foundation of shared values, extensive people-to-people ties, and a commitment to a secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific region. We look forward to working with the newly elected government on a range of important issuesâ¦. We are confident that the strong and upward trajectory of our partnership will continue.

The Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee also issued a laudatory statement and, in June, several Members of Congress penned an open letter to President Trump to "highlight the continuing strategic importance of the U.S.-India relationship." Secretary of State Michael Pompeo met with Modi and other top Indian officials in New Delhi in June to express enthusiasm about America's "natural strategic partner." President Trump has yet to visit India, and high-level engagement occurs under the rubric of a "2+2 Ministerial Dialogue" inaugurated in September 2018. Nevertheless, many independent observers express concern about emergent frictions and indications that the partnership is becoming dissonant. A recent substantive overview of the relationship concluded that it "would benefit from some realism about its limitations."

Officials in governments across the Indo-Pacific region expect the election results to bring general continuity in Indian policies. Given the instability and uncertainty that can accompany coalition governance, many likely regarded Prime Minister Modi's convincing reelection with some relief. Modi's internationalist orientation can be seen in his energetic pursuit of diplomacy with numerous major powers and regional governments. This includes though continued development of the U.S.-India strategic partnership, which is widely seen to be rooted in an array of mutually-held values and increasingly convergent visions for global order, lately conceived by Washington as a "shared vision for a free, open, and rules-based Indo-Pacific region."

On the economic front, Modi's reputation as a reformer and liberalizer has met with mixed reviews. Five years in office realized no major land or labor reforms or meaningful efforts to address bad bank debt that were widely anticipated. The BJP leader's assumed electoral vulnerabilitiesârelatively lackluster economic expansion (averaging below 7% annually), joblessness, rising prices, and a widely panned 2016 "demonetization" initiativeâdid not end up degrading his impressive political support. Most market-oriented analysts are hopeful, but not entirely confident, that a "Modi 2.0" government will redouble efforts to implement the kinds of economic reforms sought by the U.S. and other governments and business interests.

Election and Outcome

India possesses a robust and competitive multiparty democratic system. Yet its politics also are described as "beset by corruption" by Freedom House, a think tank that ranks world countries on levels of political and civil liberties. In 2017, India had fallen 10 places on the Economic Intelligence Unit Democracy Index to 42 nd in the world, due in part to "a rise of vigilantism and violence against minority communities, particularly Muslims, as well as other dissenting voices." For 2018, India was ranked 41 st worldwide, but its overall score was unchanged, and it maintained its designation as a "flawed democracy" (as did the United States).

The scale of India's national election presents daunting logistical challenges, and voting was completed in seven phases. As with each iteration, the event was history's largest democratic exercise: About 880 million peopleâone-ninth of the world's populationâwere eligible to cast ballots in the country's 29 states and 7 Union Territories, including some 84 million first-time voters. More than 600 million Indians participated, for a turnout rate of 67.4%. More than 8,400 candidates and a record 669 parties vied for the Lok Sabha's 543 elected seats; 36 parties won at least one seat, as did 4 independent candidates.

In addition to being history's largest democratic undertaking, India's 2019 national election was also history's most expensive: participating parties and candidates spent an estimated $8.7 billion on the campaign, more than double the 2014 spending. The BJP reportedly received nearly three-quarters of all political donations. Such massive outlays raise concerns among many about fairness: there is little transparency in India's campaign finance system, the Modi government had lifted caps on corporate donations, and the Election Commission's oversight is criticized for ineffectiveness.

In the lead-up to the 2019 voting, analysts debated whether the BJP's 2014 sweep was an anomaly in a decades-long era of coalition politics in New Delhi, or marked the beginning of a new period of single-party domination as was seen under the Congress Party prior to 1989. The BJP's unexpected and even stronger showing in 2019 suggests that India's national political stage has undergone qualitative change back toward a hegemonic national party.

The BJP won by securing 303 seats with more than 37% of the aggregate vote, significantly exceeding the 272 seats required for majority status, and increasing the party's seat total from 282 in the previous Lok Sabha. Their closest competitors, the Congress Party, took 52 seats with 19.5% of the national vote, a net gain of 8 seats (see Table 1 ). According to Election Commission of India data, the BJP won a majority of votes cast in 10 states, as well as in the Delhi National Capital Territory. It also took 49.6% of the votes cast in Uttar Pradesh (UP), India's most populous state. No other party was able to garner a majority of votes in any single state. While the BJP's core support in India's western and north-central "Hindi belt" states remained strong, and the party succeeded in expanding its appeal in the country's east, it was shut out completely in seven states, including the major southern states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, where regional parties prevailed. In a sign of the Congress Party's historic collapse nationally, the party failed to win a single seat in 14 states, and nearly half of the seats the party did win (23) came from India's two southernmost states, Kerala and Tamil Nadu (see Figure 1 , "Map of Indian States").

The newly seated Lok Sabha is, on average, younger, wealthier, and better educated than its predecessor, and the number of female members has increased to 15% (see Text Box ). Upper-caste Hindus and political families continue to enjoy disproportionately high representation, and India's large and relatively marginalized Muslim minority community of about 190 million (about 14% of the total) suffers from a declining voice in Parliament: Muslim representation in the Lok Sabha peaked at 10% in 1980 and lingered at about 6% until dropping to 4% in 2014. A net gain of three Muslim members in 2019 only slightly raised that percentage. India's parliamentarians are also notable for the numbers who face formal criminal allegations.

Notable Changes in Union Ministers

The "Modi 2.0" cabinet includes some significant changes to the leadership of key Indian ministries. For the first time ever, a career diplomat, Subramanyam Jaishankar, is now External Affairs Minister, replacing BJP stalwart Sushma Swaraj. Jaishankar, until recently Foreign Secretary, is a former ambassador to both the United States and China, and is widely known in Washington as proponent and facilitator of closer U.S.-India ties. Another key new figure in the Modi cabinet is Home Minister Amit Shah, who succeeds senior BJP official Rajnath Singh, himself now holding the Defense Ministry portfolio. Also under new leadership is the Finance Ministry, where former Defense Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has become India's first female finance minister. Additionally, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, a former intelligence chief in office since 2014 and considered a hardliner on Pakistan, was elevated to cabinet rank in 2019.

Other Parties and Figures

The Indian National Congress

India's Congress Party had hoped in 2019 to reverse its general decline after 2014. It had led a United Progressive Alliance coalition government under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh from 2004 to 2014. Party president Rahul Gandhiâson of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and grandson of Indira Gandhiâhad entered politics with apparent reluctance, winning the "family seat" in Amethi, UP, in 2004. Ten years later, Rahul oversaw Congress's worst electoral performance in history when the party took only 44 Lok Sabha seats, down from 206 previously.

Gandhi's lackluster reputation took a new shine after the party's unexpectedly strong showing in the 2017 Gujarat state elections, and December 2018 Congress victories in three north-central states were a huge morale boost for the party, heartening potential Congress allies. During the 2019 campaign, Gandhi impressed many observers with what were described as creative policy proposals and a newly assured public speaking style. Still, going into the 2019 campaign, Congress had no significant presence in any of India's six most populous states and had shown an inability to recover in states where it had faltered. The party continued to struggle to both consolidate old alliances and to establish new ones. As put by one official from a BJP-allied regional party, the opposition had "neither a program, nor a leader, nor a narrative." Gandhi suffered an embarrassing upset loss in his family's Amethi district, and the party's 2019 defeat has led to new leadership crises.

Regional and Caste-based Parties

The BJP and Congress are India's only truly national partiesâthey together won roughly half of all votes cast in 2009 and 2014, and their combined share rose to 57% in 2019 (attributable to a 6-point boost for the BJP). The influence of regional and caste-based partiesâalthough blunted by the BJP's outright majority victoriesâremains a crucial variable in Indian politics. Such parties now hold about one-third of Lok Sabha seats, but many of the most influential met with significant reversals in 2019.

By early 2019, Narendra Modi had become the primary, if not sole target of his many electoral opponents, but no single challenger emerged. Still, the opposition's zeal to dislodge the incumbents had them ready to make unusual alliances, especially in Uttar Pradesh, where the effort failed conclusively. Other powerful regional parties experienced setbacks, most notably West Bengal's Trinamool Congress, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, which barely survived a surprise BJP surge in the key eastern state, winning 22 of 42 Lok Sabha seats to the BJP's 18 (up from 2 in 2014). Only in Odisha was a major regional partyâin this case the Biju Janata Dal of popular Chief Minister Naveen Patnaikâable to withstand the BJP onslaught.

Implications for U.S. Interests

Because the BJP campaign was run largely on Narendra Modi's personal popularity rather than an explicit policy platform, it is unclear how Modi will use his mandate going forward. Since 2014, the Modi government arguably has realized some foreign policy successes compatible with U.S. interests: sustaining the partnership with the United States, solidifying the partnership with Japan, strengthening ties with Israel while making new outreach to key Persian Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and articulating a vision for the Indo-Pacific region that tracks well with that of the United States. Modi has successfully projected India as the world's next big economic opportunity after China, but critics argue that he has mostly squandered an opportunity to move India into great power status, with a lack of strategic vision harming India's position vis-Ã -vis major powers and smaller neighbors, alike. Given India's myriad domestic problems, and still-limited capacity to project power, some American observers are skeptical about its near-term potential to play the role sought for it by the U.S. Congress and successive Administrations.

The Modi/BJP victory has empowered the Indian leader domestically and this may provide Modi and India new opportunities on the global stage. Given Modi's reputation for favoring a "muscular" foreign policy, he may now be more willing to resist Chinese assertiveness and move closer to the United States. Yet troubles with the United States also could loom: Many Indian strategic thinkers say their country's national interests are well served by engaging not just with the United States but also with Russia and Iran, which could limit to New Delhi's willingness to abide what some Indian observers describe as "America's short-term impulses." While New Delhi generally welcomes the U.S. "free and open Indo-Pacific" (FOIP) strategy, Indian leaders continue to demur from confronting China. The United States and India also seek to cooperate on energy, climate change, and space issues, and have sometimes clashing views on immigration.

Bilateral Trade and Economic Relations26

Trade and economic ties, an important and growing part of bilateral relations, have faced recent challenges. Prime Minister Modi's strong electoral mandate suggests India's mixed economic performance did not hurt his standing with the public, and the results may embolden the BJP to press ahead with its reform agenda with greater vigor (see Text Box , below). The Trump Administration takes issue with the U.S. trade deficit with India and "unfair" trade practices that restrict U.S. exports to and investment in India. Some U.S. policymakers and businesses have been disappointed that, during Modi's first term, India did not move forward with market-opening reforms as they had hoped, and instead increased tariffs and trade restrictions. For example, recent tariff hikes by New Delhi on cell phones and other products have elevated long-standing U.S. concerns about India's tariff regime, and President Trump has called India the "tariff king." Other U.S. concerns include inadequate intellectual property protection and enforcement, and restrictive new rules on e-commerce and localization of certain financial data flowsâwhich affect major U.S. companies, such as Amazon, Walmart-owned Flipkart, Visa, and MasterCard. The United States and India also often have opposing stances on multilateral trade issues in the World Trade Organization.

The outlook for bilateral trade relations is unclear. Both sides have taken decisive actions on simmering issues. President Trump terminated India's eligibility for the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), effective on June 5, 2019, after determining that "India has not assured the United States that India will provide equitable and reasonable access to its markets." This decision followed a U.S. investigation into India's market access practices and petitions by U.S. dairy and medical technology industries. In 2018, India was the largest beneficiary of GSP, with over one-tenth ($6.3 billion) of U.S. goods imports from India entering duty-free under the program. India, which called the eligibility termination "unfortunate," announced soon after that it would impose higher retaliatory tariffs on 28 U.S. products, including almonds, apples, and walnuts, in response to U.S. Section 232 (national-security-based) steel and aluminum tariffs. During 2018, India repeatedly delayed applying retaliatory tariffs, in hopes of negotiating a resolution of bilateral trade issues. In late June, President Trump called India's 2019 imposition of retaliatory tariffs "unacceptable" and said they "must be withdrawn."

At the June 2019 G-20 Summit, the two sides appeared to strike a more conciliatory tone. President Trump said a "very big" trade deal would be coming with India. According to India's foreign secretary, the "trade ministers of both countries would meet at an early date and would try to sort out these issues." Yet lack of progress in recent months reportedly is prompting the Administration to consider launching a Section 301 investigation of India's trade practicesâthis would make India the focus of the next major, in-depth investigation of unfair trade practices after China. On one hand, Section 301 could be a new way to address long-standing issues of U.S. concern with respect to India. On the other hand, it could raise the risk of protracted bilateral trade tensions and tit-for-tat escalation of tariffs across many economic sectors.

Defense and Security Relations

Continuity in India's leadership may lead to continued rapid development of U.S.-India security cooperation, with U.S. leaders hoping that increased Indian capabilities will provide greater net security regionally and worldwide (in spite of some U.S. concerns about New Delhi's ties with Moscow). President Obama and Congress recognized India as a "major defense partner" (MDP) in 2016, a unique designation allowing India to receive license-free access to dual-use American technologies. The MDP designation was created in large part to carry over a presumption of license approvals into the new U.S. administration. It was linked to India's joining the four major multilateral export control regimes to become eligible to receive licensing for the most advanced defense systems the United States exports. In mid-2018, India received Strategic Trade Authorization Tier-1 status, putting it on par with NATO allies, and the two countries concluded a long-sought Communications, Compatibility, and Security Agreement (COMCASA), a military-to-military "enabling agreement." The two governments also seek expanded collaboration via the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative, launched in 2012, which aims to facilitate greater defense trade and technology sharing. India participates in formalized "quadrilateral consultations" with the United States, Japan, and Australia while downplaying prospects that the "Quad" may become a security-related architecture.

Defense trade is a leading facet of the bilateral partnership. India is now a major purchaser in the global arms market and a lucrative potential customer for U.S. companies. The two nations have signed defense contracts worth about $15 billion since 2008, up from $500 million in all previous years combined. Washington seeks to identify sales that can proceed under the technology-sharing and co-production model sought by New Delhi while also urging reform in India's defense offsets policy. Since 2002, the United States and India have held a series of increasingly complex combined bilateral exercises involving all military servicesâIndia now conducts more exercises and personnel exchanges with the United States than with any other country. A first-ever tri-service exercise is set for later in 2019. Bilateral intelligence and counterterrorism cooperation has accelerated over the past decade. In addition to intelligence sharing, homeland security cooperation has included growing engagement between respective law enforcement agencies, especially in the areas of mutual legal assistance and extradition, and on cyberterrorism and cybersecurity. Terrorist groups operating from Pakistani territory are of special interest.

India broadly endorses the FOIP strategy pursued by Washington, and it benefits from the higher visibility this strategy provides for India's global role and for its immediate region. Yet India has not fully relinquished the "nonalignment" posture it maintained for most of the Cold War (more recently pursuing "strategic autonomy" or a "pragmatic and outcome-oriented foreign policy" ). Thus, Modi has articulated a vision of a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific, and India remains wary of joining any nascent or potential security architectures that could antagonize Beijing.

India's Other Foreign Relations

India-China . Modi's win likely means a continuation of New Delhi's multilateralist/multipolar approach to international politics in Asia, as well as efforts to resist Chinese "assertiveness" in South Asia. India's relations with China have been fraught for decades, with signs of increasing enmity in recent years. Areas of contention include major border and territorial disputes, China's role as Pakistan's primary international benefactor, the presence in India of the Dalai Lama and a self-described Tibetan "government," and China's growing presence in the Indian Ocean region, which many Indians view as an encroachment in their neighborhood. New Delhi is ever watchful for signs that Beijing seeks to "contain" Indian influence both regionally and globally. China's BRIâwith "flagship" projects in Pakistanâis taken by many in India (and elsewhere) as an expression of Beijing's hegemonic intentions.

India-Pakistan . The United States has long sought to assist in reducing India-Pakistan conflict and its impact on developments in Afghanistan. A surge of Indian nationalism grew out of a February 2019 international crisis involving Pakistan. Coming just weeks before voting began in India, the confrontation was widely seen to have boosted Modi's electoral prospects. In contrast to his 2014 inauguration, when Pakistan's then-prime minister was an invited guest, Modi in 2019 omitted Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan from swearing-in festivities. It is unclear if the Indian leader will seek to use his political capital to launch a new peace initiative with Islamabad or will continue pursuing punitive policies that aim to isolate Pakistan internationally. Some analysts contend that Modi now has sufficient standing to change tack. Others, however, suggest that his reelection "will be projected as a vindication of his belligerent policy toward Pakistan."

India-Russia . India maintained close ties with Russia throughout much of the Cold War and continues to rely on Moscow for the bulk of its defense imports. With the 2017 enactment of the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act ( CAATSA, P.L. 115-44 ) in U.S. law , India's continued major arms purchases from Russiaâmost prominently a current multi-billion-dollar deal to purchase the Russian-made S-400 air defense systemâcould trigger U.S. sanctions. Although Congress subsequently provided for a national security waiver of these sanctions, the Administration has consistently counseled India to cancel the purchase and consider U.S.-supplied alternatives , while New Delhi insists that it will go forward in pursuit of its own national interest , a position possibly hardened with the BJP mandate .

India-Iran . India has historically friendly relations with Iran, a country that lately has supplied about 30% of India's energy imports. It also opposes any potential acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran and supports the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Historically averse to unilateral (non-U.N.) sanctions, New Delhi until recently enjoyed exemption from U.S. efforts targeting Iran's energy sector. In April 2019, the Trump Administration ended such exemptions, and New Delhi has issued conflicting statements about its cessation of Iranian oil purchases while informing Washington that such cessation "comes at a cost." Continued tensions in the Persian Gulf and/or a longer-term boycott of Iranian oil could be disruptive to the Indian economy; Modi's strong mandate could place limits on his willingness to abide such disruption.

Other Notable Relations . The Trump Administration's South Asia strategy has included calls for greater Indian involvement in Afghanistan, even as such engagement vexes Pakistan (New Delhi has committed about $3 billion to Afghan reconstruction to date). Islamabad is wary of the Indian presence in Afghanistan and accuses New Delhi of supporting anti-Pakistan groups there, a dynamic that can in turn affect U.S. efforts to sustain Pakistan's help in facilitating Afghanistan reconciliation. Many analysts expect India-Afghanistan ties to grow stronger with Modi's reelection, and New Delhi appears wary of any precipitous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Meanwhile, India's deepening "strategic partnership" with Japan is a major aspect of New Delhi's broader "Act East" policy and a key axis in the greater FOIP strategies broadly pursued by all three governments participating in a newly established U.S.-Japan-India Trilateral Dialogue. Prime Minister Modi appears to have a convivial personal relationship with his Japanese counterpart and bilateral ties are seen as likely to strengthen going forward.

Human Rights Issues

While Prime Minister Modi and his party have long sought to emphasize development and good governance, the 2019 election cycle revolved around nationalism and other emotive issues, with many observers arguing that Hindu majoritarianism is a threat both to India's religious minorities and to the country's syncretic traditions. According to the U.S. State Department and independent watchdogs, India is the site of numerous human rights violations, many of them serious and some perpetrated, or at least tolerated, by state actors. Many observers are concerned about the impact of growing religious bigotry and Hindu nationalism on human rights. The BJP is an openly Hindu nationalist party and Prime Minister Modi is a self-avowed Hindu nationalist. In 2005, Modi was denied a U.S. visa over concerns about his role in government during lethal anti-Muslim violence in 2002. Modi hit conciliatory notes in a national address three days after the 2019 election results were announced, vowing to seek the trust of minority groups and to work for the good of all Indians.

Human rights nongovernmental organizations and social service groups have seen their Indian operations constrained in recent years, and observers are watching closely for signs that the Modi/BJP mandate will lead to renewed efforts toward Hindu nationalist goals. Some of theseâincluding laws preventing religious conversions and cow slaughterâcontinue to cause sparks in U.S.-India relations, including explicit BJP criticism of the U.S. government for alleged "bias" against Modi. Future moves by the Modi government on other "Hindutva" policies could increase national divisions and lead to further international opprobrium.