Climate Change Adaptation: Federal Efforts to Provide Information Could Help Government Decision Making
Released: 2011-11-16T00:00:00

Letter

A Lack of Site- Specific Data, Such as Local Projections of Expected Changes, Can Challenge the Ability of Officials to Manage the Effects of Climate Change

As we reported in October 2009, insufficient site-specific data, such as local projections of expected changes, make it hard for federal, state, and local officials to predict the impacts of climate change, and thus hard for these officials to justify the current costs of adaptation efforts for potentially less certain future benefits. Based on the responses by a diverse array of federal, state, and local officials knowledgeable about adaptation to a web-based questionnaire designed for that report, related challenges generally fit into two main categories: (1) translating climate data—such as projected temperature and precipitation changes—into information that officials need to make decisions and (2) difficulty in justifying the current costs of adaptation with limited information about future benefits.

The process of providing useful information to officials making decisions about adaptation can be summarized by the following:

First, data from global-scale models must be “downscaled” to provide climate information at a geographic scale relevant to decision makers. About 74 percent (133 of 179) of the officials who responded to our questionnaire rated “availability of climate information at relevant scale (i.e., downscaled regional and local information)” as very or extremely challenging.

Second, the downscaled climate information must be translated into impacts at the local level, such as increased stream flow. Some respondents and officials interviewed for our October 2009 report said that it is challenging to link predicted temperature and precipitation changes to specific impacts. For example, one federal official said that “we often lack fundamental information on how ecological systems/species respond to non-climate change related anthropogenic stresses, let alone how they will respond to climate change.”

Third, local impacts must be translated into costs and benefits, since this information is required for many decision making processes. Almost 70 percent (126 of 180) of the respondents to our questionnaire rated “understanding the costs and benefits of adaptation efforts” as very or extremely challenging. As noted by one local government respondent, it is important to understand the costs and benefits of adaptation efforts so they can be evaluated relative to other priorities.

Fourth, decision makers need baseline monitoring data to evaluate adaptation actions over time. Nearly 62 percent (113 of 181) of the respondents to our questionnaire rated the “lack of baseline monitoring data to enable evaluation of adaptation actions (i.e., inability to detect change)” as very or extremely challenging.

These challenges make it difficult for officials to justify the current costs of adaptation efforts for potentially less certain future benefits. A 2009 report by the National Research Council (NRC) discusses how officials are struggling to make decisions based on future climate scenarios instead of past climate conditions. According to the report, requested by the Environmental Protection Agency and NOAA, usual practices and decision rules (e.g. for building bridges, implementing zoning rules, using private motor vehicles) assume a stationary climate—a continuation of past climate conditions, including similar patterns of variation and the same probabilities of extreme events. According to the NRC report, that assumption, which is fundamental to the ways people and organizations make their choices, is no longer valid.

Federal Actions to Provide and Interpret Site-Specific Information Would Help Officials Understand the Impacts of Climate Change and Available Adaptation Strategies

Federal actions to provide and interpret site-specific information would help address challenges associated with adaptation efforts, based on our analysis of responses to the web-based questionnaire and other materials analyzed for our October 2009 report. The report discussed several potential federal actions that federal, state, and local officials identified as useful to inform adaptation decision making. These included state and local climate change impact and vulnerability assessments and the development of processes and tools to access, interpret, and apply climate information. In that report, we also obtained information regarding the creation of a climate service—a federal service to consolidate and deliver climate information to decision makers to inform adaptation efforts.

About 61 percent (107 of 176) of the federal, state, and local officials who responded to the web-based questionnaire developed for our October 2009 adaptation report rated the “creation of a federal service to consolidate and deliver climate information to decision makers to inform adaptation efforts” as very or extremely useful. Respondents offered a range of potential strengths and weaknesses for such a service. Several said that a climate service would help consolidate information and provide a single-information resource for local officials, and others said that it would be an improvement over the current ad hoc system. A climate service would avoid duplication and establish an agreed set of climate information with uniform methodologies, benchmarks, and metrics for decision making, according to some officials. According to one federal official, consolidating scientific, modeling, and analytical expertise and capacity could increase efficiency. Similarly, some officials noted that with such consolidation of information, individual agencies, states, and local governments would not have to spend money obtaining climate data for their adaptation efforts. Others said that it would be advantageous to work from one source of information instead of different sources of varying quality. Some officials said that a climate service would demonstrate a federal commitment to adaptation and provide a credible voice and guidance to decision makers. In an announcement on February 8, 2010, the Department of Commerce proposed establishing a NOAA climate service. Though not yet established, information is available on the NOAA climate service website, including draft vision and strategic framework documents. According to NOAA documents, such a climate service would provide a single, reliable, and authoritative source for climate data, information, and decision support services to help individuals, businesses, communities, and governments make smart choices in anticipation of a climate changed future. A September 2010 report by the National Academy of Public Administration discusses the factors needed for a NOAA climate service to succeed—such as the designation of a lead federal agency to be the day-to-day integrator of the overall federal effort regarding climate science and services—and makes recommendations on how to achieve those factors.

Other respondents to our questionnaire, however, were less enthusiastic about the creation of a climate service. Some voiced skepticism about whether it was feasible to consolidate climate information, and others said that such a system would be too rigid and may get bogged down in lengthy review processes. Furthermore, certain officials stated that building such capacity may not be the most effective place to focus federal efforts because the information needs of decision makers vary so much by jurisdiction. Several officials noted that climate change is an issue that requires a multidisciplinary response, and a single federal service may not be able to supply all of the necessary expertise. For example, one federal official stated that the information needs of Bureau of Reclamation water managers are quite different from the needs of Bureau of Land Management rangeland managers, which are different from the needs of all other resource management agencies and programs. The official stated that it seems highly unlikely that a single federal service could effectively identify and address the diverse needs of multiple agencies. Several respondents also said that having one preeminent source for climate change information and modeling could stifle contrary ideas and alternative viewpoints. Moreover, several officials who responded to our questionnaire were concerned that a climate service could divert attention and resources from current adaptation efforts by reinventing duplicative processes without making use of existing structures. The 2009 NRC report on informing decisions in a changing climate recommends that the federal government’s adaptation efforts should be undertaken through a new integrated interagency initiative with both service and research elements but that such an initiative should not be centralized in a single agency. Doing so, according to this report, would disrupt existing relationships between agencies and their constituencies and formalize a separation between the emerging science of climate response and fundamental research on climate and the associated biological, social, and economic phenomena. Furthermore, the report states that a climate service located in a single agency and modeled on the weather service would by itself be less than fully effective for meeting the national needs for climate-related decision support. The NRC report also notes that such a climate service would not be user-driven and so would likely fall short in providing needed information, identifying and meeting critical decision support research needs, and adapting adequately to changing information needs.

We have not made recommendations regarding the creation of a climate service within NOAA or any other agency or interagency body, although the provision of climate data and services will be an important consideration in future governmentwide strategic planning efforts, particularly in an era of declining budgets.

Federal Climate Change Strategic Planning Efforts Could Be Improved

Federal strategic planning efforts could be improved for many aspects of the climate change enterprise. Our October 2009 report on climate change adaptation concluded that, to be effective, related federal efforts must be coordinated and directed toward a common goal. This report recommended the development of a strategic plan to guide the nation’s efforts to adapt to a changing climate, including the identification of mechanisms to increase the capacity of federal, state, and local agencies to incorporate information about current and potential climate change impacts into government decision making. Some actions have subsequently been taken to improve federal adaptation efforts, but our May 2011 report on climate change funding found that federal officials do not have a shared understanding of strategic governmentwide priorities. This report recommended, among other things, the clear establishment of federal strategic climate change priorities, including the roles and responsibilities of the key federal entities, taking into consideration the full range of activities within the federal climate change enterprise. In other reports, we also noted the need for improved coordination of climate- related activities. For example, our April 2010 report on environmental satellites concluded that gaps in satellite coverage, which could occur as soon as 2015, are expected to affect the continuity of important climate and space weather measurements. In that report, we stated that, despite repeated calls for interagency strategies for the long-term provision of environmental data from satellites (both for climate and space weather purposes), our nation still lacks such plans.

Of particular importance in adaptation are planning decisions involving physical infrastructure projects, which require large capital investments and which, by virtue of their anticipated lifespan, will have to be resilient to changes in climate for many decades. The long lead time and long life of large infrastructure investments require such decisions to be made well before climate change effects are discernable. Our ongoing work for the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works Subcommittee on Oversight and Subcommittee on Transportation and Infrastructure will explore this issue by reviewing the extent to which federal, state, and local authorities consider the potential effects of climate change when making infrastructure investment decisions.

Chairman Begich, Ranking Member Snowe, and Members of the Subcommittee, this concludes my prepared statement. I would be happy to respond to any questions that you or other Members of the Subcommittee may have.

Contacts and Acknowledgements

For further information about this testimony, please contact David Trimble at (202) 512-3841 or trimbled@gao.gov. Contact points for our Congressional Relations and Public Affairs offices may be found on the last page of this statement. Barb Patterson, Anne Hobson, Richard Johnson, Ben Shouse, Jeanette Soares, Kiki Theodoropoulos, and Joseph Dean “Joey” Thompson also made key contributions to this statement.

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