Clinical trial NCT03051737: Development and Validation of a Regional Multi-scale System for the Prediction of the Patient Flow in the Emergencies and the Need for Hospitalization
Official title: Development and Validation of a Regional Multi-scale System in Ile-de-France for the Prediction of the Patient Flow in the Emergency Department and the Need for Hospitalization
Study type: OBSERVATIONAL
Overall status: UNKNOWN
Conditions: Emergency Department
Hospitalization
Keywords: Multi-scale
Prediction
Patient Flow
Emergency Department
Hospitalization
Ile-de-France
Lead sponsor: Assistance Publique - Hôpitaux de Paris
Sponsor class: OTHER
First posted: 2017-02-14
Enrollment: 18000000
Sex: ALL
Standard ages: CHILD
ADULT
OLDER_ADULT
Accepts healthy volunteers: no
Observational model: OTHER
Time perspective: RETROSPECTIVE
Sampling method: NON_PROBABILITY_SAMPLE
Study population: Adults or children who have been recorded as patients in emergency departments between 2010 and 2015 are all eligibles with unlimited number of care.

85 Health Facilities in Ile de France who have emergency departments will participate the study.

Brief summary: The main objective of this retrospective study is to validate a prediction system of emergencies department (ED) attendance on a wide range of time and the need for hospitalization, at various levels of perimeter (with all emergency departments or one ED in particular), with all patients or with one sub-group of patients (age, gravity, care).

Detailed description: As secondary objectives, the study aims:

* to measure the influence of different factors as environmental or structural and to identify the modifiable factors, then to allow us to test by simulation, impact of various interventions (for example: opening of hospitals and reinforcement of ED teams) on arrival flows or regenerated tension inside ED teams.
* to study the relation between the flows (arrival patients, hospitalized patients) and the time of ED visit or the indicators of tension of ED team.
* Typology of ED in the region of Paris permitting afterward comparison the benchmarking type between similar structures.

This retrospective study will be performed on database: individual data in the region of Paris of summation of ED visits and data on the structures of health cares, as well as environmental data (principal given cares, weather, moves, circulations, pollution, strikes, vacations, etc.)

Eligibility criteria: Inclusion Criteria:

* All subjects have been recorded as patients in emergency departments between 2010 and 2015.

Exclusion Criteria:

* None

Primary outcomes:
measure: Prediction of emergency department visits
timeFrame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Secondary outcomes:
measure: Prediction by age
timeFrame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
measure: Prediction by lever of gravity
timeFrame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
measure: Prediction by type of care
timeFrame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
measure: Prediction by need of hospitalization or no
timeFrame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
measure: Relation between flow of patients and indicator of tension of team
timeFrame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
measure: Relation between flow of patients and time of ED visit
timeFrame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
measure: Typology of ED of the region of Paris
timeFrame: throughout the study, an average of 18 months
Other outcomes:
Locations:
city: Bry sur Marne
country: France
facility: Emergency Department - Bry sur Marne Hospital
state: Val-de-Marne
Study officials:
affiliation: Emergency Department - Bry sur Marne Hospital
name: Mathias WARGON, MD
role: PRINCIPAL_INVESTIGATOR
References: