Clinical trial NCT03259100: Temperature and Mortality
Official title: Impact of Increasing Temperature Over the Coming Century on Mortality From CVD and Stroke
Study type: OBSERVATIONAL
Overall status: COMPLETED
Conditions: Cardiovascular Diseases
Lead sponsor: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Sponsor class: OTHER_GOV
First posted: 2017-08-23
Enrollment: 17000000
Sex: ALL
Minimum age (years): 35
Standard ages: ADULT
OLDER_ADULT
Accepts healthy volunteers: no
Observational model: ECOLOGIC_OR_COMMUNITY
Time perspective: RETROSPECTIVE
Sampling method: PROBABILITY_SAMPLE
Study population: We used data on mortality rate (per 100,000 individuals) for CVD and stroke (between 2011 and 2013, age\>35years) from the publicly available Centers for disease prevention and control (CDC) web site (www.cdc.gov).

Brief summary: The investigators evaluated the spatial association between, cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and stroke mortality rate with average ambient temperature (Ta) , and then used this relationship to model future temporal trends in mortality from CVD and stroke till the end of century (2099) using different warming scenarios across the mainland USA.

Detailed description: the investigators used data on mortality rate (per 100,000 individuals) for CVD and stroke (between 2011 and 2013, age\>35years) from the publicly available Centers for disease prevention and control (CDC) web site (www.cdc.gov). CVD mortality was defined as the number of deaths per 100,000 personyears due to circulatory causes (International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, codes I00-I99).Oak Ridge National laboratory was the source of the ambient temperature data (http://www.daac.ornl.gov: files B01, B02 and C07).The investigators obtained data on prevalence of HTN (HTN was defined as systolic blood pressure (BP) of at least 140 mm Hg, self-reported use of antihypertensive treatment, or both) from county health rankings and roadmaps organisation (www.countyhealthrankings.org), which were estimated based on National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in five two-year waves from 1999-2008 including 26,349 adults aged 30 years and older and from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 1997-2009 including 1,283,722 adults aged 30 years and older.

Eligibility criteria: Inclusion Criteria:

1. age\>35 years

Exclusion Criteria:

None

Primary outcomes:
measure: spatial association between, cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and stroke mortality rate with average ambient temperature
timeFrame: 2011-2013
Secondary outcomes:
Other outcomes:
Locations:
Study officials:
References:
citation: Mazidi M, Speakman JR. Ambient particulate air pollution (PM2.5) is associated with the ratio of type 2 diabetes to obesity. Sci Rep. 2017 Aug 22;7(1):9144. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-08287-1.
citation: Mazidi M, Speakman JR. Higher densities of fast-food and full-service restaurants are not associated with obesity prevalence. Am J Clin Nutr. 2017 Aug;106(2):603-613. doi: 10.3945/ajcn.116.151407. Epub 2017 May 31.
citation: Speakman JR, Heidari-Bakavoli S. Type 2 diabetes, but not obesity, prevalence is positively associated with ambient temperature. Sci Rep. 2016 Aug 1;6:30409. doi: 10.1038/srep30409.