Clinical trial NCT01639443: Reducing VA No-Shows: Evaluation of Predictive Overbooking Applied to Colonoscopy
Official title: Reducing VA No-Shows: Evaluation of Predictive Overbooking Applied to Colonoscopy
Study type: INTERVENTIONAL
Overall status: COMPLETED
Phase: NA
Conditions: Colon Cancer
Keywords: quality improvement
Organization and Administration
Costs and cost analysis
Patient satisfaction
Health plan implementation
Lead sponsor: VA Office of Research and Development
Sponsor class: FED
First posted: 2012-07-12
Enrollment: 180
Sex: ALL
Minimum age (years): 18
Standard ages: ADULT
OLDER_ADULT
Accepts healthy volunteers: yes
Allocation: RANDOMIZED
Intervention model: PARALLEL
Primary purpose: HEALTH_SERVICES_RESEARCH

Brief summary: In this research study, investigators use colonoscopy as a case example to evaluate a predictive overbooking model derived using patient-level predictors of absenteeism. The no-show overbooking intervention employs a logistic regression model that uses patient data to predict the odds of no-showing with 80% accuracy. These projected no-show appointments will be overbooked by clerks for patients who agree to join a "fast track" short-call line. By rapidly processing endoscopy patients and moving them out of traditional slots, investigators predict more scheduling slots would become available for patients awaiting colonoscopy.

Detailed description: Patient "no-shows" are especially common in VA gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy units, where both open-access endoscopy scheduling and patient dislike of procedures contribute to high absenteeism. In this proposal, investigators use endoscopy as a case example to evaluate a predictive overbooking model derived using patient-level predictors of absenteeism. The no-show overbooking intervention employs a logistic regression model that uses patient data to predict the odds of no-showing with 80% accuracy. These projected no-show appointments will be overbooked by clerks for patients who agree to join a "fast track" short-call line. However, patients scheduled for upper endoscopies in the "fast track" assume a small risk of service denial on the day of their overbooking in case of inaccurate predictions. If this occurs, the patient is guaranteed service in the next available position and is assured of having a shorter wait time. Patients scheduled for colonoscopies will never be turned down but may experience delays in the waiting room the day of their "fast track" appointment. By rapidly processing endoscopy patients and moving them out of traditional slots, investigators predict more scheduling slots would become available for patients awaiting colonoscopy. Investigators propose to conduct a prospective, 24-month, interrupted time series (ITS) trial in the WLAVA (West Los Angeles Veterans Administration) GI clinic endoscopy unit. During intervention periods, investigators will activate the no-show predictive overbooking strategy described above. Investigators will compare outcomes between scheduling strategies, including differences in percent utilization of capacity (primary outcome), number of Veterans served, mean patient lag time between scheduling and procedure, number of unexpected service denials ("bumps") from no-show predictive overbooking, and direct costs of care. Investigators will analyze differences using both traditional univariate and multivariate approaches, and using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) analyses to adjust for auto-correlations in ITS data.

Eligibility criteria: Inclusion Criteria:

* Patients who are scheduled for upper endoscopy and agree to the terms of "fast track" offer.

Exclusion Criteria:

* If a patient expresses concern about service denial, confusion about the bargain, or refuses to participate, the investigators will schedule these patients routinely.

Primary outcomes:
measure: Percentage of GI Clinic Capacity Filled
timeFrame: After 12 months of running study in clinic
Secondary outcomes:
measure: Scheduling-to-procedure Lag Time
timeFrame: After 12 months of running study in clinic
measure: Daily Service Denials ("Bumps")
timeFrame: After 12 months of running study in clinic
measure: Advanced Adenoma Detection/Cecal Intubation Rates
timeFrame: After 20 months of running study in clinic
measure: Length of Workday
timeFrame: After 12 months of running study in clinic
measure: Cost Comparisons
timeFrame: After 12 months of running study in clinic
Other outcomes:
Locations:
city: West Los Angeles
country: United States
facility: VA Greater Los Angeles Healthcare System, West Los Angeles, CA
state: California
Study officials:
affiliation: VA Greater Los Angeles Healthcare System, West Los Angeles, CA
name: Paul G. Shekelle, MD PhD MPH
role: PRINCIPAL_INVESTIGATOR
References:
citation: Reid MW, Cohen S, Wang H, Kaung A, Patel A, Tashjian V, Williams DL Jr, Martinez B, Spiegel BM. Preventing patient absenteeism: validation of a predictive overbooking model. Am J Manag Care. 2015 Dec;21(12):902-10.
citation: Reid MW, May FP, Martinez B, Cohen S, Wang H, Williams DL Jr, Spiegel BM. Preventing Endoscopy Clinic No-Shows: Prospective Validation of a Predictive Overbooking Model. Am J Gastroenterol. 2016 Sep;111(9):1267-73. doi: 10.1038/ajg.2016.269. Epub 2016 Jul 5.
citation: May FP, Reid MW, Cohen S, Dailey F, Spiegel BM. Predictive overbooking and active recruitment increases uptake of endoscopy appointments among African American patients. Gastrointest Endosc. 2017 Apr;85(4):700-705. doi: 10.1016/j.gie.2016.09.001. Epub 2016 Sep 10.