Clinical trial NCT05963360: Planning for Frailty: Optimal Health and Social Care Workforce Organisation Using Demand-led Simulation Modelling
Official title: Planning for Frailty: Optimal Health and Social Care Workforce Organisation Using Demand-led Simulation Modelling (FLOWS)
Study type: OBSERVATIONAL
Overall status: ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING
Conditions: Frailty in Aging
Older People
Keywords: Planning for Frailty
Health and Social Care Workforce Organisation
Social care Workforce
Simulation Modelling
Health Workforce
Lead sponsor: University of Southampton
Sponsor class: OTHER
Collaborators: name: Bournemouth University
name: Tameside Hospital NHS Foundation Trust
name: Southern Health NHS Foundation Trust
First posted: 2023-07-27
Enrollment: 50000
Sex: ALL
Minimum age (years): 50
Standard ages: ADULT
OLDER_ADULT
Accepts healthy volunteers: no
Observational model: COHORT
Time perspective: RETROSPECTIVE
Sampling method: NON_PROBABILITY_SAMPLE
Study population: Adults age 50 and above

Brief summary: What is the present, and expected, size and composition of the health and social care workforce required to provide care for the frail older population? As the population ages, robust workforce planning to meet future demands for health and social care by older people is needed. A lack of evidence in this areas has led to a mis-match between the health and social care demand from the ageing population and the current workforce capacity. The proposed study will use demand-led simulation modelling of the workforce required to address the specific challenge of providing health and social care for the growing numbers of older people living with frailty.

Detailed description: Research Question: What is the present, and expected, size and composition of the health and social care workforce required to provide care for the frail older population? Background: As the population ages, robust workforce planning to meet future demands for health and social care by older people is needed. A lack of evidence in this area has led to a mis-match between the health and social care demand from the ageing population and the current workforce capacity. The proposed study will use demand-led simulation modelling of the workforce required to address the specific challenge of providing health and social care for the growing numbers of older people living with frailty.

Aims \& Objectives: The aim of the study is to use simulation modelling to explore long-term trends in frailty-related health and social care use in the ageing population and its implications for future workforce size and competencies to support high quality care. The primary objective of this study is the creation of a simulation model that will inform service and workforce planning to meet health and social care needs associated with frailty.

Methods: The study will use a System Dynamics design to develop and test the simulation model.

Work packages comprise a scoping review, gathering of public and professional perspectives on service provision via a survey and stakeholder engagement activities, and analysis of linked health and social care data, all of which inform the simulation modelling work package and development of a workforce planning toolkit.

Timelines for delivery: The scoping review will be completed in year 1. Routine health and social care data specification and extraction will occur in year 1, as will service mapping and classification and survey preparation. Survey data collection and analysis will occur in year 2. Simulation modelling will commence in year 2, with validation, sensitivity analyses and scenario modelling in year 3.

Development of workforce guidelines and toolkit will occur in year 3 Stakeholder engagement, including patient public involvement, will run throughout the study, reviewing study results and informing development of the other work packages.

Anticipated impact \& dissemination: This study will provide new, direct evidence about the impact of frailty on health and social care workforce requirements within the ageing population The improved understanding of workforce requirements offered by this study will inform workforce planning for frailty services across health and social care, ensuring future benefit for patients through provision of timely and appropriate care and a workforce planning toolkit to support local decision-making.

Eligibility criteria: Eligibility:

* Age 50yrs and above,
* contributing data to the North West London NHS Integrated Care System database

Exclusion:

\*Age below 50yrs

Primary outcomes:
measure: Service use (for cohort analysis)
timeFrame: 2015-2022
Secondary outcomes:
measure: Workforce provision of services to Adults living with Frailty
timeFrame: 2015-2022
Other outcomes:
Locations:
city: Southampton
country: United Kingdom
facility: University of Southampton
Study officials:
affiliation: University of Southampton
name: Bronagh M Walsh/Professor, PhD
role: PRINCIPAL_INVESTIGATOR
References: