And it 's especially difficult to project economic activity business / yourmoney / 04view.html ? _ r = 3 & ref = yourmoney & oref = slogin & oref = slogin & oref = slogin " linktype = " External " target = " _ blank " resizable = " true " status = " true " scrollbars = " true " > when the economy reaches inflection points--times when the economy is about to go from expansion to contraction , or vice versa .