Question: how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

Title: Weathering the pandemic: How the Caribbean Basin can use viral and environmental patterns to predict, prepare, and respond to COVID-19 Content: The 2020 coronavirus pandemic is developing at different paces throughout the world. Some areas, like the Caribbean Basin, have yet to see the virus strike at full force. When it does, there is reasonable evidence to suggest the consequent COVID-19 outbreaks will overwhelm healthcare systems and economies. This is particularly concerning in the Caribbean as pandemics can have disproportionately higher mortality impacts on lower and middle-income countries. Preliminary observations from our team and others suggest that temperature and climatological factors could influence the spread of this novel coronavirus, making spatiotemporal predictions of its infectiousness possible. This review studies geographic and time-based distribution of known respiratory viruses in the Caribbean Basin in an attempt to foresee how the pandemic will develop in this region. This review is meant to aid in planning short- and long-term interventions to manage outbreaks at the international, national, and subnational levels in the region.

Title: Weathering the pandemic: How the Caribbean Basin can use viral and environmental patterns to predict, prepare and respond to COVID‐19 Content: The 2020 coronavirus pandemic is developing at different paces throughout the world. Some areas, like the Caribbean Basin, have yet to see the virus strike at full force. When it does, there is reasonable evidence to suggest the consequent COVID‐19 outbreaks will overwhelm healthcare systems and economies. This is particularly concerning in the Caribbean as pandemics can have disproportionately higher mortality impacts on lower and middle income countries. Preliminary observations from our team and others suggest that temperature and climatological factors could influence the spread of this novel coronavirus, making spatiotemporal predictions of its infectiousness possible. This review studies geographic and time‐based distribution of known respiratory viruses in the Caribbean Basin in an attempt to foresee how the pandemic will develop in this region. This review is meant to aid in planning short‐ and long‐term interventions to manage outbreaks at the international, national and sub‐national levels in the region. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Title: Climate Change and Human Health Impacts in the United States: An Update on the Results of the U.S. National Assessment Content: The health sector component of the first U.S. National Assessment, published in 2000, synthesized the anticipated health impacts of climate variability and change for five categories of health outcomes: impacts attributable to temperature, extreme weather events (e.g., storms and floods), air pollution, water- and food-borne diseases, and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. The Health Sector Assessment (HSA) concluded that climate variability and change are likely to increase morbidity and mortality risks for several climate-sensitive health outcomes, with the net impact uncertain. The objective of this study was to update the first HSA based on recent publications that address the potential impacts of climate variability and change in the United States for the five health outcome categories. The literature published since the first HSA supports the initial conclusions, with new data refining quantitative exposure–response relationships for several health end points, particularly for extreme heat events and air pollution. The United States continues to have a very high capacity to plan for and respond to climate change, although relatively little progress has been noted in the literature on implementing adaptive strategies and measures. Large knowledge gaps remain, resulting in a substantial need for additional research to improve our understanding of how weather and climate, both directly and indirectly, can influence human health. Filling these knowledge gaps will help better define the potential health impacts of climate change and identify specific public health adaptations to increase resilience.

Title: Weather Conditions and COVID-19 Transmission: Estimates and Projections Content: Background: Understanding and projecting the spread of COVID-19 requires reliable estimates of how weather components are associated with the transmission of the virus. Prior research on this topic has been inconclusive. Identifying key challenges to reliable estimation of weather impact on transmission we study this question using one of the largest assembled databases of COVID-19 infections and weather. Methods: We assemble a dataset that includes virus transmission and weather data across 3,739 locations from December 12, 2019 to April 22, 2020. Using simulation, we identify key challenges to reliable estimation of weather impacts on transmission, design a statistical method to overcome these challenges, and validate it in a blinded simulation study. Using this method and controlling for location-specific response trends we estimate how different weather variables are associated with the reproduction number for COVID-19. We then use the estimates to project the relative weather-related risk of COVID-19 transmission across the world and in large cities. Results: We show that the delay between exposure and detection of infection complicates the estimation of weather impact on COVID-19 transmission, potentially explaining significant variability in results to-date. Correcting for that distributed delay and offering conservative estimates, we find a negative relationship between temperatures above 25 degrees Celsius and estimated reproduction number ([R]), with each degree Celsius associated with a 3.1% (95% CI, 1.5% to 4.8%) reduction in [R]. Higher levels of relative humidity strengthen the negative effect of temperature above 25 degrees. Moreover, one millibar of additional pressure increases [R] by approximately 0.8 percent (95% CI, 0.6% to 1%) at the median pressure (1016 millibars) in our sample. We also find significant positive effects for wind speed, precipitation, and diurnal temperature on [R]. Sensitivity analysis and simulations show that results are robust to multiple assumptions. Despite conservative estimates, weather effects are associated with a 43% change in [R] between the 5th and 95th percentile of weather conditions in our sample. Conclusions: These results provide evidence for the relationship between several weather variables and the spread of COVID-19. However, the (conservatively) estimated relationships are not strong enough to seasonally control the epidemic in most locations.

Title: Comparison of culturable antibiotic-resistant bacteria in polluted and non-polluted air in Beijing, China Content: Abstract Background Air pollution has been a serious health issue in Beijing for years. Airborne antibiotic-resistant bacteria could be a potential health crisis as reserve of antibiotic resistance transmission in environment. The composition and antibiotic resistance pattern of culturable bacterial community and how these are affected by air pollution remain unclear. Objectives This study aimed to compare the compositions and antibiotic resistance patterns of culturable bacteria in polluted and non-polluted weather conditions in Beijing. Methods Air samples were collected indoors and outdoors during polluted and non-polluted weather using six-stage Andersen Samplers. For each isolated bacterium, the 16S ribosomal RNA gene was amplified, sequenced, and blasted against the National Center for Biotechnology Information database Antibiotic resistance was conducted by antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Results Bacterial concentration in polluted weather was significantly higher than in non-polluted weather, both indoors and outdoors (P < 0.05). Gram-positive bacteria (GPB) were dominant in both weathers but gram-negative bacteria (GNB) were more abundant in polluted weather than non-polluted weather both indoors and outdoors. Multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria occupied 23.7% of all bacterial isolates, 22.4% of isolates from polluted weather and 27.8% of isolates from non-polluted weather. Penicillins were resisted by 72.4% and 83.3% of isolates from polluted and non-polluted weather, respectively. Conclusions The bacterial concentration was significantly higher in polluted weather, compared to non-polluted weather. Polluted weather is correlated with changes in the bacterial composition in the air, with a greater abundance of GNB. Penicillins was resisted by over 70% of bacterial isolates. The abundance of MDR bacteria suggested potential risks for human health.

Title: Does weather affect the growth rate of COVID-19, a study to comprehend transmission dynamics on human health Content: The undefendable outbreak of novel coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) lead to a global health emergency due to its higher transmission rate and longer symptomatic duration, created a health surge in a short time. Since Nov 2019 the outbreak in China, the virus is spreading exponentially everywhere. The current study focuses on the relationship between environmental parameters and the growth rate of COVID-19. The statistical analysis suggests that the temperature changes retarded the growth rate and found that -6.28{degrees}C and +14.51{degrees}C temperature is the favorable range for COVID-19 growth. Gutenberg- Richter's relationship is used to estimate the mean daily rate of exceedance of confirmed cases concerning the change in temperature. Temperature is the most influential parameter that reduces the growth at the rate of 13-16 cases/day with a 1{degrees}C rise in temperature.

Title: Does weather affect the growth rate of COVID-19, a study to comprehend transmission dynamics on human health Content: Abstract The undefendable outbreak of novel coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) lead to a global health emergency due to its higher transmission rate and longer symptomatic duration, created a health surge in a short time. Since Nov 2019 the outbreak in China, the virus is spreading exponentially everywhere. The current study focuses on the relationship between environmental parameters and the growth rate of COVID-19. The statistical analysis suggests that the temperature changes retarded the growth rate and found that -6.28°C and +14.51°C temperature is the favorable range for COVID-19 growth. Gutenberg- Richter's relationship is used to estimate the mean daily rate of exceedance of confirmed cases concerning the change in temperature. Indeed, temperature is the most influential parameter that reduces the growth at the rate of 13-17 cases/day with a 1°C rise in temperature.

Title: Bats and Emerging Infections: An Ecological and Virological Puzzle Content: More than 200 viruses have been detected in bats. Some unique bat characteristics can explain the roles played in the maintenance and transmission of viruses: long phylogenetic history can have originated coevolution processes, great number of species are adapted to live in different environments, big mobility, long lifespan and gregarious behaviour of many species. To analyse zoonoses long longitudinal studies are needed with a multidisciplinary approximation to obtain the following eco-epidemiological data: colony size, number of bats per species, population structure, behaviour of each species, degree of contact between bats, social structure, remaining time of bats in the colony, colony type, foraging area, turnover rate of individuals, shelter temperature, relationship with other colonies and co-infection processes. These data allows assessing the epidemiological risk and which preventive measures are necessary to take. The structure and functionality of ecosystems are changing worldwide at an unprecedented rate and can modify the interactions between humans and infected bats. There are more or less local factors that can affect the emergence and spread of diseases (environmental alterations, changes in land use, human population growth, changes in human socioeconomic behavior or social structure, people mobility increase, trade increase, forest fires, extreme weather events, wars, breakdown in public health infrastructure, etc.). Twenty-three percent of all bat species in the world are decreasing. How does the regression of bat species affect the dynamic of viruses? The dichotomy between health risk and bat preservation is compatible with a preventive task based on more information and training.

Title: Opening up while locking down: how an Irish independent sector mental health service is responding to the COVID-19 crisis? Content: The COVID-19 pandemic poses a particular set of challenges for health services. Some of these are common across all services (e.g. strategies to minimise infections; timely testing for patients and staff; and sourcing appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE)) and some are specific to mental health services (e.g. how to access general medical services quickly; how to safely deliver a service that traditionally depends on intensive face to face contact; how to isolate someone who does not wish to do so; and how to source sufficient PPE in the face of competing demands for such equipment). This paper describes how St Patrick's Mental Health Services (SPMHS) chose to address this unfolding and ever-changing crisis, how it developed its strategy early based on a clear set of objectives and how it adapted (and continues to adapt) to the constantly evolving COVID-19 landscape.

Title: Opening up while locking down: how an Irish independent sector mental health service is responding to the COVID-19 crisis Content: The COVID-19 pandemic poses a particular set of challenges for health services. Some of these are common across all services (e.g. strategies to minimise infections; timely testing for patients and staff; and sourcing appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE)) and some are specific to mental health services (e.g. how to access general medical services quickly; how to safely deliver a service that traditionally depends on intensive face to face contact; how to isolate someone who does not wish to do so; and how to source sufficient PPE in the face of competing demands for such equipment). This paper describes how St Patrick’s Mental Health Services (SPMHS) chose to address this unfolding and ever-changing crisis, how it developed its strategy early based on a clear set of objectives and how it adapted (and continues to adapt) to the constantly evolving COVID-19 landscape.

Title: 'Calibrating to scale: a framework for humanitarian health organizations to anticipate, prevent, prepare for and manage climate-related health risks'. Content: Climate Change is adversely affecting health by increasing human vulnerability and exposure to climate-related stresses. Climate change impacts human health both directly and indirectly, through extreme weather events, changing distribution of health risks, increased risks of undernutrition, population displacement, and greater risks of injuries, disease, and death (Ebi, K., Campbell-Lendrum, D., & Wyns, A. The 1. 5 health report. WHO. 2018). This risk amplification is likely to increase the need for humanitarian support. Recent projections indicate that under a business as usual scenario of sustained greenhouse gas emissions, climate change could double the demand for humanitarian assistance by 2050 (World Health Organization. Operational Framework for building climateresilient health systems. WHO. 2015). Humanitarian assistance is currently not meeting the existing needs, therefore, any additional burden is likely to be highly challenging.Global health advocates, researchers, and policymakers are calling for urgent action on climate change, yet there is little clarity on what that action practically entails for humanitarian organizations. While some humanitarian organizations may consider themselves well designed to respond, climate change as a transversal threat requires the incorporation of a resilience approach to humanitarian action and policy responses.By bringing together authors from two historically disparate fields - climate change and health, and humanitarian assistance - this paper aims to increase the capacity of humanitarian organizations to protect health in an unstable climate by presenting an adapted framework. We adapted the WHO operational framework for climate-resilient health systems for humanitarian organizations and present concrete case studies to demonstrate how the framework can be implemented. Rather than suggest a re-design of humanitarian operations we recommend the application of a climate-lens to humanitarian activities, or what is also referred to as mainstreaming climate and health concerns into policies and programs. The framework serves as a starting point to encourage further dialogue, and to strengthen collaboration within, between, and beyond humanitarian organizations.

Title: Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter Content: We look at classifying extinction risks in three different ways, which affect how we can intervene to reduce risk. First, how does it start causing damage? Second, how does it reach the scale of a global catastrophe? Third, how does it reach everyone? In all of these three phases there is a defence layer that blocks most risks: First, we can prevent catastrophes from occurring. Second, we can respond to catastrophes before they reach a global scale. Third, humanity is resilient against extinction even in the face of global catastrophes. The largest probability of extinction is posed when all of these defences are weak, that is, by risks we are unlikely to prevent, unlikely to successfully respond to, and unlikely to be resilient against. We find that it’s usually best to invest significantly into strengthening all three defence layers. We also suggest ways to do so tailored to the classes of risk we identify. Lastly, we discuss the importance of underlying risk factors – events or structural conditions that may weaken the defence layers even without posing a risk of immediate extinction themselves.

Title: Analysis on Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Using Machine Learning Methods Content: In this paper, we are working on a pandemic of novel coronavirus (COVID-19). COVID-19 is an infectious disease, it creates severe damage in the lungs. COVID-19 causes illness in humans and has killed many people in the entire world. However, this virus is reported as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) and all countries are trying to control and lockdown all places. The main objective of this work is to solve the five different tasks such as I) Predicting the spread of coronavirus across regions. II) Analyzing the growth rates and the types of mitigation across countries. III) Predicting how the epidemic will end. IV) Analyzing the transmission rate of the virus. V) Correlating the coronavirus and weather conditions. The advantage of doing these tasks to minimize the virus spread by various mitigation, how well the mitigations are working, how many cases have been prevented by this mitigations, an idea about the number of patients that will recover from the infection with old medication, understand how much time will it take to for this pandemic to end, we will be able to understand and analyze how fast or slow the virus is spreading among regions and the infected patient to reduce the spread based clear understanding of the correlation between the spread and weather conditions. In this paper, we propose a novel Support Vector Regression method to analysis five different tasks related to novel coronavirus. In this work, instead of simple regression line we use the supported vectors also to get better classification accuracy. Our approach is evaluated and compared with other well-known regression models on standard available datasets. The promising results demonstrate its superiority in both efficiency and accuracy.

Title: Does temperature and humidity influence the spread of Covid-19?: A preliminary report Content: INTRODUCTION: Climate change has been known to influence infectious diseases. The reason for this being the fact; disease agents and their vectors each have particular environments that are optimal for growth, survival, transport, and dissemination. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The WHO's website was accessed to look for the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) situation dashboard and comprehensively study and assess the report. An attempt was made to look for countries, areas or territories with maximum and minimum number of cases of lab confirmed COVID cases. Further, we entered the words “Climate“ in google for each of the aforementioned countries and searched for the results. A comparison was established by including countries from both the hemispheres (northern and southern). The preliminary analysis was based on the reports from countries with established testing facilities for Covid-19. RESULTS: The report suggests that countries with higher number of cases are the countries with cold weather. These are also the countries with low humidity which could be favoring the transmission and survival of the SARS-COV-2. CONCLUSIONS: The results though preliminary point to a pattern which favors the hypothesis that the extensive spread of Covid-19 maybe limited by temperature and humidity.

Title: Using Mobility for Electrical Load Forecasting During the COVID-19 Pandemic Content: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges for the utilities and grid operators around the world. In this work, we focus on the problem of load forecasting. With strict social distancing restrictions, power consumption profiles around the world have shifted both in magnitude and daily patterns. These changes have caused significant difficulties in short-term load forecasting. Typically algorithms use weather, timing information and previous consumption levels as input variables, yet they cannot capture large and sudden changes in socioeconomic behavior during the pandemic. In this paper, we introduce mobility as a measure of economic activities to complement existing building blocks of forecasting algorithms. Mobility data acts as good proxies for the population-level behaviors during the implementation and subsequent easing of social distancing measures. The major challenge with such dataset is that only limited mobility records are associated with the recent pandemic. To overcome this small data problem, we design a transfer learning scheme that enables knowledge transfer between several different geographical regions. This architecture leverages the diversity across these regions and the resulting aggregated model can boost the algorithm performance in each region's day-ahead forecast. Through simulations for regions in the US and Europe, we show our proposed algorithm can outperform conventional forecasting methods by more than three-folds. In addition, we demonstrate how the proposed model can be used to project how electricity consumption would recover based on different mobility scenarios.

Title: Effects of Leachates from UV-Weathered Microplastic in Cell-Based Bioassays. Content: Standard ecotoxicological testing of microplastic does not provide insight into the influence that environmental weathering by, e.g., UV light has on related effects. In this study, we leached chemicals from plastic into artificial sea water during simulated UV-induced weathering. We tested largely additive-free pre-production polyethylene, polyethylene terephthalate, polypropylene and polystyrene and two types of plastic obtained from electronic equipment as positive controls. Leachates were concentrated by solid-phase extraction and dosed into cell-based bioassays that cover i) cytotoxicity; ii) activation of metabolic enzymes via binding to the arylhydrocarbon receptor (AhR) and the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPARγ); iii) specific, receptor-mediated effects (estrogenicity, ER); and iv) adaptive response to oxidative stress (AREc32). LC-HRMS analysis was used to identify possible chain-scission products of polymer degradation, which were then tested in AREc32 and PPARγ. Explicit activation of all assays by the positive controls provided proof-of-concept of the experimental setup to demonstrate effects of chemicals liberated during weathering. All plastic leachates activated the oxidative stress response, in most cases with increased induction by UV-treated samples compared to dark controls. For PPARγ, polyethylene-specific effects were partially explained by the detected dicarboxylic acids. Since the pre-production plastic showed low effects often in the range of the blanks future studies should investigate implications of weathering on end consumer products containing additives.

Title: The COVID-19 pandemic will have a long-lasting impact on the quality of cirrhosis care Content: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has shattered the meticulously developed processes by which we delivered quality care for patients with cirrhosis. Care has been transformed by the crisis, but enduring lessons have been learned. In this article, we review how COVID-19 will impact cirrhosis care. We describe how this impact unfolds over 3 waves; i) an intense period with prioritized high-acuity care with delayed elective procedures and routine care during physical distancing, ii) a challenging 'return to normal' following the end of physical distancing, with increased emergent decompensations, morbidity, and systems of care overwhelmed by the backlog of deferred care, and iii) a protracted period of suboptimal outcomes characterized by missed diagnoses, progressive disease and loss to follow-up. We outline the concrete steps required to preserve the quality of care provided to patients with cirrhosis. This includes an intensification of the preventative care provided to patients with compensated cirrhosis, proactive chronic disease management, robust telehealth programs, and a reorganization of care delivery to provide a full service of care with flexible clinical staffing. Managing the pandemic of a serious chronic disease in the midst of a global infectious pandemic is challenging. It is incumbent upon the entire healthcare establishment to be strong enough to weather the storm. Change is needed.

Title: The COVID-19 pandemic will have a long-lasting impact on the quality of cirrhosis care Content: Summary The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has shattered the meticulously developed processes by which we delivered quality care for patients with cirrhosis. Care has been transformed by the crisis, but enduring lessons have been learned. In this article, we review how COVID-19 will impact cirrhosis care. We describe how this impact unfolds over 3 waves; i) an intense period with prioritized high-acuity care with delayed elective procedures and routine care during physical distancing, ii) a challenging ‘return to normal’ following the end of physical distancing, with increased emergent decompensations, morbidity, and systems of care overwhelmed by the backlog of deferred care, and iii) a protracted period of suboptimal outcomes characterized by missed diagnoses, progressive disease and loss to follow-up. We outline the concrete steps required to preserve the quality of care provided to patients with cirrhosis. This includes an intensification of the preventative care provided to patients with compensated cirrhosis, proactive chronic disease management, robust telehealth programs, and a reorganization of care delivery to provide a full service of care with flexible clinical staffing. Managing the pandemic of a serious chronic disease in the midst of a global infectious pandemic is challenging. It is incumbent upon the entire healthcare establishment to be strong enough to weather the storm. Change is needed.

Title: Advice-giving in newspaper weather commentaries Content: Abstract Receiving accurate and timely advice about extreme weather events can impact a person's likelihood to survive, cope with and minimise exposure. Advice-giving seems to be a common interpersonal strategy in weather commentaries in many Chinese newspapers, yet research into weather advice-giving is greatly lacking. This study investigated whether the discourse of advice-giving in newspaper weather commentaries differed depending on the newspaper source and/or on the weather reported. We focused on two popular metropolitan newspapers: Beijing Morning Post and Beijing Evening News. Forty texts from each source were chosen (20 for ordinary weather and 20 for extreme weather). Results showed that the advice given stems from a vast reservoir of advice themes, and we found clear differences depending on weather, with significantly more advice given during extreme events. We also found that Beijing Evening News, in general, provided more advice in their weather commentaries. Finally, writers who were prone to take an authoritative stance tended to increase their use of imperatives and “high-status” vocatives during extreme weather, whereas those who positioned themselves “with” their readers also used more imperatives, but did not change their vocative preferences.

Title: The COVID-19 Crisis: An Opportunity to Integrate Food Democracy into Post-Pandemic Food Systems Content: The world economy is sliding yet into another recession (having arguably barely recovered from the previous economic downturn) due to the worldwide pressures and tensions created by the COVID-19 pandemic.(1) With most countries in the world under lockdown (or in similar situations), almost all food is now consumed in the household. Arguably, agricultural producers and the retail industry appear to be the best placed to weather the storm in order to respond to such a change in demand. However, this is overly simplistic. Recent news of empty shelves in supermarkets whilst dairy farmers have been forced to pour milk down the drain have gone viral.

Title: The COVID-19 pandemic's impact on U.S. electricity demand and supply: an early view from the data Content: After the onset of the recent COVID-19 pandemic, a number of studies reported on possible changes in electricity consumption trends. The overall theme of these reports was that ``electricity use has decreased during the pandemic, but the power grid is still reliable''---mostly due to reduced economic activity. In this paper we analyze electricity data upto end of May 2020, examining both electricity demand and variables that can indicate stress on the power grid, such as peak demand and demand ramp-rate. We limit this study to three states in the USA: New York, California, and Florida. The results indicate that the effect of the pandemic on electricity demand is not a simple reduction from comparable time frames, and there are noticeable differences among regions. The variables that can indicate stress on the grid also conveyed mixed messages: some indicate an increase in stress, some indicate a decrease, and some do not indicate any clear difference. A positive message is that some of the changes that were observed around the time stay-at-home orders were issued appeared to revert back by May 2020. A key challenge in ascribing any observed change to the pandemic is correcting for weather. We provide a weather-correction method, apply it to a small city-wide area, and discuss the implications of the estimated changes in demand. The weather correction exercise underscored that weather-correction is as challenging as it is important.

Title: The Pace and Pulse of the Fight against Coronavirus across the US, A Google Trends Approach Content: The coronavirus pandemic is impacting our lives at unprecedented speed and scale - including how we eat and work, what we worry about, how much we move, and our ability to earn. Google Trends can be used as a proxy for what people are thinking, needing, and planning. We use it to provide both insights into, and potential indicators of, important changes in information-seeking patterns during pandemics like COVID-19. Key questions we address are: (1) What is the relationship between the coronavirus outbreak and internet searches related to healthcare seeking, government support programs, media sources of different ideologies, planning around social activities, travel, and food, and new coronavirus-specific behaviors and concerns?; (2) How does the popularity of search terms differ across states and regions and can we explain these differences?; (3) Can we find distinct, tangible search patterns across states suggestive of policy gaps to inform pandemic response? (4) Does Google Trends data correlate with and potentially precede real-life events? We suggest strategic shifts for policy makers to improve the precision and effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and recommend the development of a real-time dashboard as a decision-making tool. Methods used include trend analysis of US search data; geographic analyses of the differences in search popularity across US states during March 1st to April 15th, 2020; and Principal Component Analyses (PCA) to extract search patterns across states.

Title: A systematic review of peer-reviewed literature authored by medical professionals regarding US biomedicine's role in responding to climate change. Content: Extant literature illustrates a substantive impact on human health because of climate change. Despite this, discussions of the ethical and policymaking role of US health care's response to this problem are underdeveloped within peer-reviewed literature indexed in core medical databases. We conducted a systematic literature review in August 2017 at Vanderbilt University Medical Center of the following medical, business and policy databases to examine the state of inquiry on this topic: PubMed, CINAHL, PsychINFO, JAMA Network, Health Affairs, Business Source Complete, Greylit.org, LexisNexis Academic, Proquest Dissertations and Theses Global. An initial sample of n = 4434 rendered n = 75 articles precisely addressing this question following a two-tiered systematic examination of content. US medical professionals were most concerned by the health impacts of air pollution and respiratory complications, extreme weather events, and rising infectious/vector-borne diseases. They were least concerned by rising rates of migration and stresses to sanitation systems. Medical professionals took a broadly proactive stance to the issue, highlighting the need to implement education and advocacy strategies. Politics was the least pertinent motivation for climate change-related recommendations. Furthermore, partnerships between health care and public agencies were identified as holding the greatest potential for meaningful change. Mitigation approaches were slightly more common than adaptation approaches. We conclude that, while the enthusiasm of the medical community is commendable, efforts to address climate change in US health care are overly fractured, and lack the necessary expertise for efficaciousness.

Title: Eco-epidemiological assessment of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, January–February 2020 Content: Background: The outbreak of COVID-19 in China in early 2020 provides a rich data source for exploring the ecological determinants of this new infection, which may be of relevance as the pandemic develops. Objectives: Assessing the spread of the COVID-19 across China, in relation to associations between cases and ecological factors including population density, temperature, solar radiation and precipitation. Methods: Open-access COVID-19 case data include 18,069 geo-located cases in China during January and February 2020, which were mapped onto a 0.25° latitude/longitude grid together with population and weather data (temperature, solar radiation and precipitation). Of 15,539 grid cells, 559 (3.6%) contained at least one case, and these were used to construct a Poisson regression model of cell-weeks. Weather parameters were taken for the preceding week given the established 5–7 day incubation period for COVID-19. The dependent variable in the Poisson model was incident cases per cell-week and exposure was cell population, allowing for clustering of cells over weeks, to give incidence rate ratios. Results: The overall COVID-19 incidence rate in cells with confirmed cases was 0.12 per 1,000. There was a single confirmed case in 113/559 (20.2%) of cells, while two grid cells recorded over 1,000 confirmed cases. Weekly means of maximum daily temperature varied from −28.0°C to 30.1°C, minimum daily temperature from −42.4°C to 23.0°C, maximum solar radiation from 0.04 to 2.74 MJm(−2) and total precipitation from 0 to 72.6 mm. Adjusted incidence rate ratios suggested brighter, warmer and drier conditions were associated with lower incidence. Conclusion: Though not demonstrating cause and effect, there were appreciable associations between weather and COVID-19 incidence during the epidemic in China. This does not mean the pandemic will go away with summer weather but demonstrates the importance of using weather conditions in understanding and forecasting the spread of COVID-19.

Title: Eco-epidemiological assessment of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, January-February 2020 Content: Background: The outbreak of COVID-19 in China in early 2020 provides a rich data source for exploring the ecological determinants of this new infection, which may be of relevance elsewhere. Objectives: Assessing the spread of the COVID-19 across China, in relation to associations between cases and ecological factors including population density, temperature, solar radiation and precipitation. Methods: Open-access COVID-19 case data include 18,069 geo-located cases in China during January and February 2020, which were mapped onto a 0.25° latitude/longitude grid together with population and weather data (temperature, solar radiation and precipitation). Of 15,539 grid cells, 559 (3.6%) contained at least one case, and these were used to construct a Poisson regression model of cell-weeks. Weather parameters were taken for the preceding week given the established 5-7 day incubation period for COVID-19. The dependent variable in the Poisson model was incident cases per cell-week and exposure was cell population, allowing for clustering of cells over weeks, to give incidence rate ratios. Results: The overall COVID-19 incidence rate in cells with confirmed cases was 0.12 per 1,000. There was a single case in 113/559 (20.2%) of cells, while two grid cells recorded over 1,000 cases. Weekly means of maximum daily temperature varied from -28.0 to 30.1 °C, minimum daily temperature from -42.4 to 23.0 °C, maximum solar radiation from 0.04 to 2.74 MJm-2 and total precipitation from 0 to 72.6 mm. Adjusted incidence rate ratios suggested brighter, warmer and drier conditions were associated with lower incidence. Conclusion: Though not demonstrating cause and effect, there were appreciable associations between weather and COVID-19 incidence during the epidemic in China. This does not mean the pandemic will go away with summer weather but demonstrates the importance of using weather conditions in understanding and forecasting the spread of COVID-19.

Title: Eco-epidemiological assessment of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, January-February 2020 Content: Background: The outbreak of COVID-19 in China in early 2020 provides a rich data source for exploring the ecological determinants of this new infection, which may be of relevance as the pandemic develops.Objectives: Assessing the spread of the COVID-19 across China, in relation to associations between cases and ecological factors including population density, temperature, solar radiation and precipitation.Methods: Open-access COVID-19 case data include 18,069 geo-located cases in China during January and February 2020, which were mapped onto a 0.25° latitude/longitude grid together with population and weather data (temperature, solar radiation and precipitation). Of 15,539 grid cells, 559 (3.6%) contained at least one case, and these were used to construct a Poisson regression model of cell-weeks. Weather parameters were taken for the preceding week given the established 5-7 day incubation period for COVID-19. The dependent variable in the Poisson model was incident cases per cell-week and exposure was cell population, allowing for clustering of cells over weeks, to give incidence rate ratios.Results: The overall COVID-19 incidence rate in cells with confirmed cases was 0.12 per 1,000. There was a single confirmed case in 113/559 (20.2%) of cells, while two grid cells recorded over 1,000 confirmed cases. Weekly means of maximum daily temperature varied from -28.0°C to 30.1°C, minimum daily temperature from -42.4°C to 23.0°C, maximum solar radiation from 0.04 to 2.74 MJm-2 and total precipitation from 0 to 72.6 mm. Adjusted incidence rate ratios suggested brighter, warmer and drier conditions were associated with lower incidence.Conclusion: Though not demonstrating cause and effect, there were appreciable associations between weather and COVID-19 incidence during the epidemic in China. This does not mean the pandemic will go away with summer weather but demonstrates the importance of using weather conditions in understanding and forecasting the spread of COVID-19.

Title: Extreme water-related weather events and waterborne disease Content: Global climate change is expected to affect the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme water-related weather events such as excessive precipitation, floods, and drought. We conducted a systematic review to examine waterborne outbreaks following such events and explored their distribution between the different types of extreme water-related weather events. Four medical and meteorological databases (Medline, Embase, GeoRef, PubMed) and a global electronic reporting system (ProMED) were searched, from 1910 to 2010. Eighty-seven waterborne outbreaks involving extreme water-related weather events were identified and included, alongside 235 ProMED reports. Heavy rainfall and flooding were the most common events preceding outbreaks associated with extreme weather and were reported in 55·2% and 52·9% of accounts, respectively. The most common pathogens reported in these outbreaks were Vibrio spp. (21·6%) and Leptospira spp. (12·7%). Outbreaks following extreme water-related weather events were often the result of contamination of the drinking-water supply (53·7%). Differences in reporting of outbreaks were seen between the scientific literature and ProMED. Extreme water-related weather events represent a risk to public health in both developed and developing countries, but impact will be disproportionate and likely to compound existing health disparities.

Title: Mental health and capacity laws in Northern Ireland and the COVID-19 pandemic: Examining powers, procedures and protections under emergency legislation Content: This article examines the changes made to mental health and capacity laws in Northern Ireland through temporary emergency legislation, known as the Coronavirus Act 2020. The purpose of the legislation was to respond to the emergency situation created by the COVID-19 pandemic, in particular the increase pressure placed on health services in the United Kingdom. An overview is provided of the government's rationale for the changes to Northern Ireland mental health and capacity laws, as well as exploring how they are likely to be operationalised in practice. Consideration is also given as to how such changes may impact upon existing human rights protections for persons assessed as lacking mental capacity. It is argued that it is important that regular parliamentary oversight is maintained in relation to the potential impact and consequences of such changes during the period they are in force. This should be done in order to assess whether they remain a necessary, proportionate and least restrictive response to the challenges faced in managing mental health and capacity issues in Northern Ireland during this public health emergency.

Title: Traumatic Times Content: Discusses how businesses are impacted by traumatic events and pandemics such as the current Coronavirus (COVID-19) As I write this in late March, we are early in the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic It is like nothing any of us have experienced before, except perhaps the very few who may have lived through the flu pandemic of 1918-1920 The COVID-19 crisis is like a combination of all the worst we've seen There is social trauma as we isolate ourselves, lose some individual liberties, and try to work from home We don't know when society will return to normal and, when it does, how it will have changed

Title: One Size Does Not Fit All: How to Rapidly Deploy Intubation Practice Changes in a Pediatric Hospital During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic Content:

Title: Epilepsy self-management during a pandemic: Experiences of people with epilepsy Content: The purpose of this descriptive study was to, from the perspective of adult people with epilepsy (PWE) and caregivers of PWE, explore the effects of the current pandemic and resulting societal changes on epilepsy self-management. Ninety-four respondents completed a mixed-methods quantitative and qualitative survey focused on their epilepsy self-management experiences during the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic. Respondents noted significant disruption in epilepsy self-management. Lack of ability to obtain medications or see epilepsy providers, as well as increased stress, social isolation, and changes in routine were all reported as troublesome, and more than one-third of the sample reported an increase in seizure frequency since the onset of the pandemic. Suggestions are given regarding how to support PWE during future COVID-19 outbreaks and to better prepare PWE and their caregivers for any life-altering events, such as a pandemic, with robust self-management skills that will allow them to maintain the highest level of function possible.

Title: The Challenge of Teaching Mission in an Increasingly Mobile and Complex World Content: In a time when old groupings are breaking up, when people are on the move or fleeing conflict and settling elsewhere, when many people are multilingual and are competent in several cultural settings, doing mission has become an ever greater challenge than simple cross-cultural communication. How does one engage in mission on the run? How does one conduct missiological research in ephemeral community that is here today and gone tomorrow? How does one train new missionaries for work in a field that will certainly morph into something else before they get there? Changing times call for new perspectives on mission.

Title: Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic Content: Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic probing different scenarios based on known coronavirus biology. We find that while variations in weather may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen the climate drives only modest changes to pandemic size. A preliminary analysis of non-pharmaceutical control measures indicates that they may moderate the pandemic-climate interaction via susceptible depletion. Our findings suggest, without effective control measures, strong outbreaks are likely in more humid climates and summer weather will not substantially limit pandemic growth.

Title: Containing the Anxieties of Children, Parents and Families from a Distance During the Coronavirus Pandemic Content: The coronavirus pandemic and the move to teletherapy has created uncertainty among both clinicians and patients. As therapists who work with children, we have heard from parents who are desperate for support and advice about how to respond to their children’s behavioral changes, as well as those who feel too overwhelmed to continue their children’s sessions at the moment and want to take a break from treatment. We have had to rethink the frame in concrete ways, reimagine how to play, and renegotiate parameters around confidentiality. At a time when fear and uncertainty make mentalizing difficult, the hallmarks of a mentalizing approach—curiosity and flexibility—are most critical. This paper will describe how the Mentalization-Based Treatment for Children (MBT-C) model offers a framework for an integrative approach that can inform treatment via teletherapy, so that clinicians can continue supporting young people and their families through this period. We will begin by describing how the mentalizing stance, particularly an awareness of our own mentalizing capacities in the moment, has become more important than ever. Ways in which clinicians maintain their mentalizing in the face of the mentalizing breakdowns will be also discussed. Finally, we illustrate with clinical vignettes how the developmental levels of mentalizing—attention control, emotion regulation, and explicit mentalizing—can inform the structure, techniques and interventions in teletherapy with children and parents.

Title: Effects of school closure on incidence of pandemic influenza in Alberta, Canada. Content: BACKGROUND Control of pandemic influenza by social-distancing measures, such as school closures, is a controversial aspect of pandemic planning. However, investigations of the extent to which these measures actually affect the progression of a pandemic have been limited. OBJECTIVE To examine correlations between the incidence of pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza in Alberta, Canada, in 2009 and school closures or weather changes, and to estimate the effects of school closures and weather changes on pH1N1 transmission. DESIGN Mathematical transmission models were fit to data that compared the pattern of confirmed pH1N1 cases with the school calendar and weather patterns. SETTING Alberta, Canada, from 19 April 2009 to 2 January 2010. DATA SOURCES 2009 virologic test results, 2006 census data, 2009 daily temperature and humidity data, and 2009 school calendars. MEASUREMENTS Age-specific daily counts of positive results for pH1N1 from the complete database of 35 510 specimens submitted to the Alberta Provincial Laboratory for Public Health for virologic testing from 19 April 2009 to 2 January 2010. RESULTS The ending and restarting of school terms had a major effect in attenuating the first wave and starting the second wave of pandemic influenza cases. Mathematical models suggested that school closure reduced transmission among school-age children by more than 50% and that this was a key factor in interrupting transmission. The models also indicated that seasonal changes in weather had a significant effect on the temporal pattern of the epidemic. LIMITATIONS Data probably represent a small sample of all viral infections. The mathematical models make simplifying assumptions in order to make simulations and analysis feasible. CONCLUSION Analysis of data from unrestricted virologic testing during an influenza pandemic provides compelling evidence that closing schools can have dramatic effects on transmission of pandemic influenza. School closure seems to be an effective strategy for slowing the spread of pandemic influenza in countries with social contact networks similar to those in Canada. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and Public Health Agency of Canada.

Title: Räumliche Ausbreitung von COVID-19 durch interregionale Verflechtungen Content: The coronavirus has plunged the global economy into crisis. Since the beginning of March, contact and exit restrictions and bans on business activities have been imposed in Germany, schools have been closed, child care has been suspended, and strict hygiene regulations have been issued. In the meantime, the number of reported new infections has been significantly reduced and the German healthcare system does not appear to be overburdened to date. This is one of the reasons why there is now an intensive debate about easing the regulations, which would allow additional economic activity. The article also examines commuter links and the role they have played in the spread of COVID-19 in Germany as well as bad weather conditions and a high population density.

Title: COVID-19: Learning from Lessons To Guide Treatment and Prevention Interventions Content: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by the novel coronavirus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and first emerged in December 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. Since then, the virus has rapidly spread to many countries. While the outbreak in China appears to be in decline, the disease has spread across the world, with a daily increase in the number of confirmed cases and infection-related deaths. Here, we highlight (i) the lessons that have been learnt so far and how they will benefit reducing the impact of COVID-19 disease and (ii) an update on the status of drug treatment and vaccine development to prevent COVID-19 and potential future related pandemics. Although the mortality rate is clearly higher than for influenza, the rate does seem to vary from country to country, possibly reflecting differences in how rapidly local health authorities respond to isolate and effectively care for the affected population. Drugs are urgently needed for both prophylaxis and the treatment of severely ill patients; however, no proven effective therapies for SARS-CoV-2 currently exist. A number of drugs that have been approved for other diseases are being tested for the treatment of COVID-19 patients, but there is an absence of data from appropriately designed clinical trials showing that these drugs, either alone or in combination, will prove effective. There is also a global urgency to develop a vaccine against COVID-19, but development and appropriate testing will take at least a year before such a vaccine will be globally available. This review summarizes the lessons learnt so far from the COVID-19 pandemic, examines the evidence regarding the drugs that are being tested for the treatment of COVID19, and describes the progress made in efforts to develop an effective vaccine.

Title: A case-crossover analysis of the impact of weather on primary cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome Content: BACKGROUND: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is endemic in dromedary camels in the Arabian Peninsula, and zoonotic transmission to people is a sporadic event. In the absence of epidemiological data on the reservoir species, patterns of zoonotic transmission have largely been approximated from primary human cases. This study aimed to identify meteorological factors that may increase the risk of primary MERS infections in humans. METHODS: A case-crossover design was used to identify associations between primary MERS cases and preceding weather conditions within the 2-week incubation period in Saudi Arabia using univariable conditional logistic regression. Cases with symptom onset between January 2015 – December 2017 were obtained from a publicly available line list of human MERS cases maintained by the World Health Organization. The complete case dataset (N = 1191) was reduced to approximate the cases most likely to represent spillover transmission from camels (N = 446). Data from meteorological stations closest to the largest city in each province were used to calculate the daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature ((ο)C), relative humidity (%), wind speed (m/s), and visibility (m). Weather variables were categorized according to strata; temperature and humidity into tertiles, and visibility and wind speed into halves. RESULTS: Lowest temperature (Odds Ratio = 1.27; 95% Confidence Interval = 1.04–1.56) and humidity (OR = 1.35; 95% CI = 1.10–1.65) were associated with increased cases 8–10 days later. High visibility was associated with an increased number of cases 7 days later (OR = 1.26; 95% CI = 1.01–1.57), while wind speed also showed statistically significant associations with cases 5–6 days later. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that primary MERS human cases in Saudi Arabia are more likely to occur when conditions are relatively cold and dry. This is similar to seasonal patterns that have been described for other respiratory diseases in temperate climates. It was hypothesized that low visibility would be positively associated with primary cases of MERS, however the opposite relationship was seen. This may reflect behavioural changes in different weather conditions. This analysis provides key initial evidence of an environmental component contributing to the development of primary MERS-CoV infections.

Title: Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the United Kingdom: A personality-based perspective on concerns and intention to self-isolate Content: Objectives Public behaviour change is necessary to contain the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19). Based on the reinforcement sensitivity theory (RST) framework, this study presents an examination of individual differences in some relevant psychological factors. Design Cross-sectional psychometric. Methods UK respondents (N = 202) completed a personality questionnaire (RST-PQ), measures of illness attitudes, concerns about the impact of coronavirus on health services and socio-economic infrastructures, personal safety, and likelihood of voluntary self-isolation. Results Respondents most concerned were older, had negative illness attitudes, and scored higher on reward reactivity (RR), indicating the motivation to take positive approach action despite prevailing worry/anxiety. Personal safety concerns were highest in those with negative illness attitudes and higher fight-flight-freeze system (FFFS, reflecting fear/avoidance) scores. Results suggest people are experiencing psychological conflict: between the urge to stay safe (FFFF-related) and the desire to maintain a normal, pleasurable (RR-related) life. Ways of ameliorating conflict may include maladaptive behaviours (panic buying), reflecting reward-related displacement activity. Intended self-isolation related to FFFS, but also low behavioural inhibition system (related to anxiety) scores. Older people reported themselves less likely to self-isolate. Conclusions Interventions need to consider individual differences in psychological factors in behaviour change, and we discuss relevant literature to inform policy makers and communicators. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Reinforcement sensitivity theory (RST) personality systems can influence perception of persuasive health messages. However, there is limited evidence for their direct effects on health concerns and behaviours, and none relating to specific infectious diseases. What does this study add? Reward reactivity (RR) is associated with concern about impact of coronavirus on the NHS and other social infrastructures, indicating the motivation to take positive-approach action despite worry/anxiety. Personal safety concerns are related to fight-flight-freeze system traits (FFFS, reflecting fear/avoidance). Intended self-isolation related to FFFS, but also low behavioural inhibition system (related to anxiety) scores. Older people reported themselves less likely to self-isolate. Results suggest psychological conflict: between the urge to stay safe (FFFF-related) and the desire to maintain a normal, pleasurable life (RR-related). Ways of ameliorating conflict may include maladaptive behaviours (panic buying), reflecting reward-related displacement activity.

Title: Coronavirus (COVID‐19) in the United Kingdom: A personality‐based perspective on concerns and intention to self‐isolate Content: OBJECTIVES: Public behaviour change is necessary to contain the spread of coronavirus (COVID‐19). Based on the reinforcement sensitivity theory (RST) framework, this study presents an examination of individual differences in some relevant psychological factors. DESIGN: Cross‐sectional psychometric. METHODS: UK respondents (N = 202) completed a personality questionnaire (RST‐PQ), measures of illness attitudes, concerns about the impact of coronavirus on health services and socio‐economic infrastructures, personal safety, and likelihood of voluntary self‐isolation. RESULTS: Respondents most concerned were older, had negative illness attitudes, and scored higher on reward reactivity (RR), indicating the motivation to take positive approach action despite prevailing worry/anxiety. Personal safety concerns were highest in those with negative illness attitudes and higher fight–flight–freeze system (FFFS, reflecting fear/avoidance) scores. Results suggest people are experiencing psychological conflict: between the urge to stay safe (FFFF‐related) and the desire to maintain a normal, pleasurable (RR‐related) life. Ways of ameliorating conflict may include maladaptive behaviours (panic buying), reflecting reward‐related displacement activity. Intended self‐isolation related to FFFS, but also low behavioural inhibition system (related to anxiety) scores. Older people reported themselves less likely to self‐isolate. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions need to consider individual differences in psychological factors in behaviour change, and we discuss relevant literature to inform policy makers and communicators. STATEMENT OF CONTRIBUTION: What is already known on this subject? Reinforcement sensitivity theory (RST) personality systems can influence perception of persuasive health messages. However, there is limited evidence for their direct effects on health concerns and behaviours, and none relating to specific infectious diseases. What does this study add? Reward reactivity (RR) is associated with concern about impact of coronavirus on the NHS and other social infrastructures, indicating the motivation to take positive‐approach action despite worry/anxiety. Personal safety concerns are related to fight–flight–freeze system traits (FFFS, reflecting fear/avoidance). Intended self‐isolation related to FFFS, but also low behavioural inhibition system (related to anxiety) scores. Older people reported themselves less likely to self‐isolate. Results suggest psychological conflict: between the urge to stay safe (FFFF‐related) and the desire to maintain a normal, pleasurable life (RR‐related). Ways of ameliorating conflict may include maladaptive behaviours (panic buying), reflecting reward‐related displacement activity;

Title: Detecting Differential Transmissibilities That Affect the Size of Self-Limited Outbreaks Content: Our ability to respond appropriately to infectious diseases is enhanced by identifying differences in the potential for transmitting infection between individuals. Here, we identify epidemiological traits of self-limited infections (i.e. infections with an effective reproduction number satisfying [Image: see text]) that correlate with transmissibility. Our analysis is based on a branching process model that permits statistical comparison of both the strength and heterogeneity of transmission for two distinct types of cases. Our approach provides insight into a variety of scenarios, including the transmission of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Arabian peninsula, measles in North America, pre-eradication smallpox in Europe, and human monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. When applied to chain size data for MERS-CoV transmission before 2014, our method indicates that despite an apparent trend towards improved control, there is not enough statistical evidence to indicate that [Image: see text] has declined with time. Meanwhile, chain size data for measles in the United States and Canada reveal statistically significant geographic variation in [Image: see text], suggesting that the timing and coverage of national vaccination programs, as well as contact tracing procedures, may shape the size distribution of observed infection clusters. Infection source data for smallpox suggests that primary cases transmitted more than secondary cases, and provides a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of control interventions. Human monkeypox, on the other hand, does not show evidence of differential transmission between animals in contact with humans, primary cases, or secondary cases, which assuages the concern that social mixing can amplify transmission by secondary cases. Lastly, we evaluate surveillance requirements for detecting a change in the human-to-human transmission of monkeypox since the cessation of cross-protective smallpox vaccination. Our studies lay the foundation for future investigations regarding how infection source, vaccination status or other putative transmissibility traits may affect self-limited transmission.

Title: Communication practices for delivering health behaviour change conversations in primary care: a systematic review and thematic synthesis. Content: BACKGROUND Clinical guidelines exhort clinicians to encourage patients to improve their health behaviours. However, most offer little support on how to have these conversations in practice. Clinicians fear that health behaviour change talk will create interactional difficulties and discomfort for both clinician and patient. This review aims to identify how healthcare professionals can best communicate with patients about health behaviour change (HBC). METHODS We included studies which used conversation analysis or discourse analysis to study recorded interactions between healthcare professionals and patients. We followed an aggregative thematic synthesis approach. This involved line-by-line coding of the results and discussion sections of included studies, and the inductive development and hierarchical grouping of descriptive themes. Top-level themes were organised to reflect their conversational positioning. RESULTS Of the 17,562 studies identified through systematic searching, ten papers were included. Analysis resulted in 10 top-level descriptive themes grouped into three domains: initiating; carrying out; and closing health behaviour change talk. Of three methods of initiation, two facilitated further discussion, and one was associated with outright resistance. Of two methods of conducting behaviour change talk, one was associated with only minimal patient responses. One way of closing was identified, and patients did not seem to respond to this positively. Results demonstrated a series of specific conversational practices which clinicians use when talking about HBC, and how patients respond to these. Our results largely complemented clinical guidelines, providing further detail on how they can best be delivered in practice. However, one recommended practice - linking a patient's health concerns and their health behaviours - was shown to receive variable responses and to often generate resistance displays. CONCLUSIONS Health behaviour change talk is smoothly initiated, conducted, and terminated by clinicians and this rarely causes interactional difficulty. However, initiating conversations by linking a person's current health concern with their health behaviour can lead to resistance to advice, while other strategies such as capitalising on patient initiated discussions, or collaborating through question-answer sequences, may be well received.

Title: The Weather Impacts the Outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China Content: Recent literature has suggested that climate conditions have considerably significant influences on the transmission of coronavirus COVID-19. However, there is a lack of comprehensive study that investigates the relationships between multiple weather factors and the development of COVID-19 pandemic while excluding the impact of social factors. In this paper, we study the relationships between six main weather factors and the infection statistics of COVID-19 on 250 cities in Mainland China. Our correlation analysis using weather and infection statistics indicates that all the studied weather factors are correlated with the spread of COVID-19, where precipitation shows the strongest correlation. We also build a weather-aware predictive model that forecasts the number of infected cases should there be a second wave of the outbreak in Mainland China. Our predicted results show that cities located in different geographical areas are likely to be challenged with the second wave of COVID-19 at very different time periods and the severity of the outbreak varies to a large degree, in correspondence with the varying weather conditions.

Title: Impact of COVID-19 on maxillofacial surgery practice: a worldwide survey Content: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly changing our habits. To date, April 12, 2020, the virus has reached 209 nations, affecting 1.8 million people and causing more than 110,000 deaths. Maxillofacial surgery represents an example of a specialty that has had to adapt to this outbreak, because of the subspecialties of oncology and traumatology. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of this outbreak on the specialty of maxillofacial surgery and how the current situation is being managed on a worldwide scale. To achieve this goal, the authors developed an anonymous questionnaire which was posted on the internet and also sent to maxillofacial surgeons around the globe using membership lists from various subspecialty associations. The questionnaire asked for information about the COVID-19 situation in the respondent's country and in their workplace, and what changes they were facing in their practices in light of the outbreak. The objective was not only to collect and analyse data, but also to highlight what the specialty is facing and how it is handling the situation, in the hope that this information will be useful as a reference in the future, not only for this specialty, but also for others, should COVID-19 or a similar global threat arise again.

Title: Impact of COVID-19 on maxillofacial surgery practice: a worldwide survey Content: Abstract The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly changing our habits. To date, April 12, 2020, the virus has reached 209 nations, affecting 1.8 million people and causing more than 110,000 deaths. Maxillofacial surgery represents an example of a specialty that has had to adapt to this outbreak, because of the subspecialties of oncology and traumatology. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of this outbreak on the specialty of maxillofacial surgery and how the current situation is being managed on a worldwide scale. To achieve this goal, the authors developed an anonymous questionnaire which was posted on the internet and also sent to maxillofacial surgeons around the globe using membership lists from various subspecialty associations. The questionnaire asked for information about the COVID-19 situation in the respondent’s country and in their workplace, and what changes they were facing in their practices in light of the outbreak. The objective was not only to collect and analyse data, but also to highlight what the specialty is facing and how it is handling the situation, in the hope that this information will be useful as a reference in the future, not only for this specialty, but also for others, should COVID-19 or a similar global threat arise again.

Title: Association of COVID-19 pandemic with meteorological parameters over Singapore Content: Meteorological parameters are the critical factors affecting the transmission of infectious diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), and influenza. Consequently, infectious disease incidence rates are likely to be influenced by the weather change. This study investigates the role of Singapore's hot tropical weather in COVID-19 transmission by exploring the association between meteorological parameters and the COVID-19 pandemic cases in Singapore. This study uses the secondary data of COVID-19 daily cases from the webpage of Ministry of Health (MOH), Singapore. Spearman and Kendall rank correlation tests were used to investigate the correlation between COVID-19 and meteorological parameters. Temperature, dew point, relative humidity, absolute humidity, and water vapor showed positive significant correlation with COVID-19 pandemic. These results will help the epidemiologists to understand the behavior of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus against meteorological variables. This study finding would be also a useful supplement to help the local healthcare policymakers, Center for Disease Control (CDC), and the World Health Organization (WHO) in the process of strategy making to combat COVID-19 in Singapore.

Title: Disaster resiliency of U.S. local governments: Insights to strengthen local response and recovery from the COVID‐19 pandemic Content: This research presents implications of the global pandemic on local government resiliency in the United States. We explore insights from local government officials and managers at the frontlines of response and recovery efforts to the biological natural disaster. Also, findings from the latest nationwide survey of U.S. local governments regarding their preparedness for weather‐related natural disasters informs responses to the current crisis. Results indicate that local governments are innovating and taking strategic actions to fight the virus. This, even though COVID‐19 has exposed social inequities exacerbated as the virus spreads. Survey findings of disaster readiness of local governments to weather‐related disasters shows that small, resource poor governments will not be able to respond well, and social inequities will grow. Policy strategies at all levels of government must recognize and account for these inequities as threat of this virus subsides, to support stronger, more effective readiness for the next biological catastrophe. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Title: Pandemics, regional outbreaks, and sudden-onset disasters Content: Pandemics of influenza, cholera, and plague are part of global history. Regional epidemics and pandemics of infectious diseases, primarily influenza A, continue to cause significant morbidity and mortality while remaining unpredictable in nature. Sudden-onset disasters such as earthquakes and floods occur with little warning. The consequences of climate change and environmental degradation can only be expected to increase the incidence of some infectious diseases and weather-related crises, adding to the unpredictability of such events. Health system leaders, both in public health and healthcare, need to understand the international context and how coordination and response across or within jurisdictions will improve the likelihood of successful management of challenges. Public health emergencies respect no borders or political structures. The ability of institutions to adapt quickly can make a difference in health outcomes and a community’s trust in those institutions.

Title: Pandemics, regional outbreaks, and sudden-onset disasters Content: Pandemics of influenza, cholera, and plague are part of global history. Regional epidemics and pandemics of infectious diseases, primarily influenza A, continue to cause significant morbidity and mortality while remaining unpredictable in nature. Sudden-onset disasters such as earthquakes and floods occur with little warning. The consequences of climate change and environmental degradation can only be expected to increase the incidence of some infectious diseases and weather-related crises, adding to the unpredictability of such events. Health leaders, both in public health and healthcare, need to understand the international context and how coordination and response across or within jurisdictions will improve the likelihood of successful management of challenges. Public health emergencies respect no borders or political structures. The ability of institutions to adapt quickly can make a difference in health outcomes and a community's trust in those institutions.

Title: Evidence Supports a Causal Model for Vitamin D in COVID-19 Outcomes Content: We analyse global data for COVID-19 deaths and recoveries and show that outbreak severity displays a striking latitude relationship with a northern hemisphere bias. Transmission rates can be explained by seasonal weather conditions, but this does not account for observed variations in fatality rates. Many factors point to Vitamin D as a candidate explanation but historical controversy surrounding Vitamin D studies and the lack of a coherent framework for causal inference has hampered acceptance of this explanation despite a wealth of evidence in its favour. We analyse global COVID-19 data using Causal Inference, constructing two contrasting directed acyclic graph (DAG) models, one causal and one acausal, and set out clearly multiple predictions made by each model. We show that observed data strongly match predictions made by the causal model but largely contradict those of the acausal model. We explore historic evidence further supporting the causal model. We review biochemical mechanisms that may explain the various ways in which vitamin D acts. We detail the mechanisms by which the SARS-Cov-2 virus causes the disease and known pathways that involve Vitamin D and show how these both protect against viral infection, as well as ameliorating disease symptoms in COVID-19 and other respiratory diseases. We examine the factors that govern confidence in causal inference models and conclude that a high level of confidence in a causal beneficial role for Vitamin D is justified.

Title: Pathogen seasonality and links with weather in England and Wales: a big data time series analysis Content: BACKGROUND: Many infectious diseases of public health importance display annual seasonal patterns in their incidence. We aimed to systematically document the seasonality of several human infectious disease pathogens in England and Wales, highlighting those organisms that appear weather-sensitive and therefore may be influenced by climate change in the future. METHODS: Data on infections in England and Wales from 1989 to 2014 were extracted from the Public Health England (PHE) SGSS surveillance database. We conducted a weekly, monthly and quarterly time series analysis of 277 pathogen serotypes. Each organism’s time series was forecasted using the TBATS package in R, with seasonality detected using model fit statistics. Meteorological data hosted on the MEDMI Platform were extracted at a monthly resolution for 2001–2011. The organisms were then clustered by K-means into two groups based on cross correlation coefficients with the weather variables. RESULTS: Examination of 12.9 million infection episodes found seasonal components in 91/277 (33%) organism serotypes. Salmonella showed seasonal and non-seasonal serotypes. These results were visualised in an online Rshiny application. Seasonal organisms were then clustered into two groups based on their correlations with weather. Group 1 had positive correlations with temperature (max, mean and min), sunshine and vapour pressure and inverse correlations with mean wind speed, relative humidity, ground frost and air frost. Group 2 had the opposite but also slight positive correlations with rainfall (mm, > 1 mm, > 10 mm). CONCLUSIONS: The detection of seasonality in pathogen time series data and the identification of relevant weather predictors can improve forecasting and public health planning. Big data analytics and online visualisation allow the relationship between pathogen incidence and weather patterns to be clarified. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5931-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Title: A Heuristic Indication and Warning Staging Model for Detection and Assessment of Biological Events Content: OBJECTIVE: This paper presents a model designed to enable rapid detection and assessment of biological threats that may require swift intervention by the international public health community. DESIGN: We utilized Strauss’ grounded theory to develop an expanded model of social disruption due to biological events based on retrospective and prospective case studies. We then applied this model to the temporal domain and propose a heuristic staging model, the Wilson–Collmann Scale for assessing biological event evolution. MEASUREMENTS: We retrospectively and manually examined hard copy archival local media reports in the native vernacular for three biological events associated with substantial social disruption. The model was then tested prospectively through media harvesting based on keywords corresponding to the model parameters. RESULTS: Our heuristic staging model provides valuable information about the features of a biological event that can be used to determine the level of concern warranted, such as whether the pathogen in question is responding to established public health disease control measures, including the use of antimicrobials or vaccines; whether the public health and medical infrastructure of the country involved is adequate to mount the necessary response; whether the country’s officials are providing an appropriate level of information to international public health authorities; and whether the event poses a international threat. The approach is applicable for monitoring open-source (public-domain) media for indications and warnings of such events, and specifically for markers of the social disruption that commonly occur as these events unfold. These indications and warnings can then be used as the basis for staging the biological threat in the same manner that the United States National Weather Service currently uses storm warning models (such as the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) to detect and assess threatening weather conditions. CONCLUSION: Used as a complement to current epidemiological surveillance methods, our approach could aid global public health officials and national political leaders in responding to biological threats of international public health significance.

Title: Changes in Police Calls for Service During the Early Months of the 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic Content: The coronavirus pandemic poses multiple challenges for policing, including the need to continue responding to calls from the public. Several contingency plans warned police to expect a large and potentially overwhelming increase in demand from the public during a pandemic, but (to the author’s knowledge) there is no empirical work on police demand during a major public health emergency. This study used calls-for-service data from 10 large cities in the USA to analyse how calls for service changed during the early months of the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak, compared to forecasts of call volume based on data from previous years. Contrary to previous warnings, overall the number of calls went down during the early weeks of the pandemic. There were substantial reductions in specific call types, such as traffic collisions, and significant increases in others, such as calls to dead bodies. Other types of calls, particularly those relating to crime and order maintenance, continued largely as before. Changes in the frequency of different call types present challenges to law enforcement agencies, particularly since many will themselves be suffering from reduced staffing due to the pandemic. Understanding changes to calls in detail will allow police leaders to put in place evidence-based plans to ensure they can continue to serve the public.

Title: Tuberculosis and COVID-19 in 2020: lessons from the past viral outbreaks and possible future outcomes Content: Background. The threat of contagious infectious diseases is constantly evolving, as demographic explosion, travel globalization and changes in human lifestyle increase the risk of spreading pathogens, leading to accelerated changes in disease landscape. Of particular interest is the aftermath of superimposing viral epidemics (especially SARS-CoV-2) over long-standing diseases, such as tuberculosis (TB), which remains a significant disease for public health worldwide and especially in emerging economies. Methods and Results. PubMed electronic database was requested for relevant articles linking TB, influenza and SARS-CoV viruses and subsequently assessed eligibility according to inclusion criteria. Using a data mining approach, we also queried the COVID-19 Open Research Dataset (CORD-19). We aimed to answer the following questions: What can be learned from other coronavirus outbreaks (with a focus on TB patients)? Is coinfection (TB and SARS-CoV-2) more severe? Is there a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2? How does the TB vaccine affect COVID-19? How does one diagnosis affect the other? Discussions. Few essential elements about TB and SARS-CoV coinfections were discussed. First, lessons from the past outbreaks (other coronaviruses), as well as influenza pandemic / seasonal outbreaks have taught the importance of infection control to avoid the severe impact on TB patients. Second, although challenging due to data scarcity, investigating the pathological pathways linking TB and SARS-CoV-2 leads to the idea that their coexistence might yield a more severe clinical evolution. Finally, we addressed the issues of vaccination and diagnostic reliability in the context of coinfection. Conclusions. Because viral respiratory infections and TB impede the host's immune responses, it can be assumed that their harmful synergism may contribute to more severe clinical evolution. Despite the rapidly growing number of cases, the data needed to predict the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patients with latent TB and TB sequelae still lies ahead.

Title: Impact of Daily Weather on COVID-19 outbreak in India Content: The COVID-19 pandemic has outspread obstreperously in India. As of June 04, 2020, more than 2 lakh cases have been confirmed with a death rate of 2.81%. It has been noticed that, out of each 1000 tests, 53 result positively infected. In order to investigate the impact of weather conditions on daily transmission occurring in India, daily data of Maximum (TMax), Minimum (TMin), Mean (TMean) and Dew Point Temperature (TDew), Diurnal Temperature range (TRange), Average Relative Humidity, Range in Relative Humidity, and Wind Speed (WS) over 9 most affected cities are analysed in several time frames: weather of that day, 7, 10, 12, 14, 16 days before transmission. Spearman rank correlation (r) shows significant but low correlation with most of the weather parameters, however, comparatively better association exists on 14 days lag. Diurnal range in Temperature and Relative Humidity shows non-significant correlation. Analysis shows, COVID-19 cases likely to be increased with increasing air temperature, however role of humidity is not clear. Among weather parameters, Minimum Temperature was relatively better correlate than other. 80% of the total confirmed cases were registered when TMax, TMean, TMin, TRange, TDew, and WS on 12-16 days ago vary within a range of 33.6-41.3 deg C, 29.8-36.5 deg C, 24.8-30.4 deg C, 7.5-15.2 deg C, 18.7-23.6 deg C, and 4.2-5.75 m/s respectively, hence, it gives an idea of susceptible weather conditions for such transmission in India. Using Support Vector Machine based regression, the daily cases are profoundly estimated with more than 80% accuracy, which indicate that coronavirus transmission cannot be well linearly correlated with any single weather parameters, rather multivariate non-linear approach must be employed. Accounting lag of 12-16 days, the association found to be excellent, thus depict that there is an incubation period of 12-16 days for coronavirus transmission in Indian scenario.

Title: Association of COVID-19 pandemic with meteorological parameters over Singapore Content: Abstract Meteorological parameters are the critical factors affecting the transmission of infectious diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), and influenza. Consequently, infectious disease incidence rates are likely to be influenced by the weather change. This study investigates the role of Singapore's hot tropical weather in COVID-19 transmission by exploring the association between meteorological parameters and the COVID-19 pandemic cases in Singapore. This study uses the secondary data of COVID-19 daily cases from the webpage of Ministry of Health (MOH), Singapore. Spearman and Kendall rank correlation tests were used to investigate the correlation between COVID-19 and meteorological parameters. Temperature, dew point, relative humidity, absolute humidity, and water vapor showed positive significant correlation with COVID-19 pandemic. These results will help the epidemiologists to understand the behavior of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus against meteorological variables. This study finding would be also a useful supplement to help the local healthcare policymakers, Center for Disease Control (CDC), and the World Health Organization (WHO) in the process of strategy making to combat COVID-19 in Singapore.

Title: Resilience resistance: The challenges and implications of urban resilience implementation Content: Growing concern about major threats, including climate change, environmental disasters, and other hazards, is matched with the increased interest and appeal of the concept of urban resilience. Much scholarly attention has focused on how to define urban resilience, in addition to raising questions about its applicability and usefulness. But those debates typically overlook questions of implementation. Implementation is important not only for how cities respond to threats but also because it can influence how urban resilience is perceived, discussed, and understood. The policy literature suggests that implementation is rarely straightforward and has ideological and normative perspectives embedded within it. Building on this literature, this paper argues that urban resilience implementation raises its own conceptual questions for both theory and practice. Further, implementing urban resilience entails its own unique challenges, such as extensive coordination, maintaining adaptability, divergent time horizons, and diverse outcomes. The paper also introduces the idea of resilience resistance as a new challenge for urban resilience. Resistance refers to the condition in which governance systems inherently develop barriers to change, flexibility, and adaptability through implementation. Several aspects of resistance are highlighted, including fatigue, complacency, and overconfidence. However, the implementation process can also have unintended positive effects on a city's capacity to prepare for and respond to shocks.

Title: Short Term Effects of Weather on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Content: BACKGROUND: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks leading to clinical and fatal complications have increased since late 1990s; especially in the Asia Pacific Region. Outbreaks of HFMD peaks in the warmer season of the year, but the underlying factors for this annual pattern and the reasons to the recent upsurge trend have not yet been established. This study analyzed the effect of short-term changes in weather on the incidence of HFMD in Singapore. METHODS: The relative risks between weekly HFMD cases and temperature and rainfall were estimated for the period 2001–2008 using time series Poisson regression models allowing for over-dispersion. Smoothing was used to allow non-linear relationship between weather and weekly HFMD cases, and to adjust for seasonality and long-term time trend. Additionally, autocorrelation was controlled and weather was allowed to have a lagged effect on HFMD incidence up to 2 weeks. RESULTS: Weekly temperature and rainfall showed statistically significant association with HFMD incidence at time lag of 1–2 weeks. Every 1°C increases in maximum temperature above 32°C elevated the risk of HFMD incidence by 36% (95% CI = 1.341–1.389). Simultaneously, one mm increase of weekly cumulative rainfall below 75 mm increased the risk of HFMD by 0.3% (CI = 1.002–1.003). While above 75 mm the effect was opposite and each mm increases of rainfall decreased the incidence by 0.5% (CI = 0.995–0.996). We also found that a difference between minimum and maximum temperature greater than 7°C elevated the risk of HFMD by 41% (CI = 1.388–1.439). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest a strong association between HFMD and weather. However, the exact reason for the association is yet to be studied. Information on maximum temperature above 32°C and moderate rainfall precede HFMD incidence could help to control and curb the up-surging trend of HFMD.

Title: Rethinking Global Health Governance in a Changing World Order for Achieving Sustainable Development: The Role and Potential of the ‘Rising Powers’ Content: The idea of this paper is inspired by the dismal experience and lessons from the initially ineffective global (WHO-led) response to the 2014–2016 West African Ebola virus epidemic. It charts the evolution of global health policy and governance in the post-World War II international order to the current post-2015 UN Sustainable Development Goals era. In order to respond adequately existing and emerging health and development challenges across developing regions, the paper argues that global health governance and related structures and institutions must adapt to changing socio-economic circumstances at all levels of decision-making. Against the background of a changing world order characterised by the decline of US-led Western international liberalism and the rise of the emerging nations in the developing world, it identifies the ‘Rising Powers’ (RPs) among the emerging economies and their soft power diplomacy and international development cooperation strategy as important tools for responding to post-2015 global health challenges. Based on analysis of illustrative examples from the ‘BRICS’, a group of large emerging economies—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—the paper develops suggestions and recommendations for the RPs with respect to: (1) stimulating innovation in global health governance and (2) strengthening health systems and health security at country and regional levels. Observing that current deliberations on global health focus largely, but rather narrowly, on what resource inputs are needed to achieve the SDG health targets, this paper goes further and highlights the importance of the ‘how’ in terms of a leadership and driving role for the RPs: How can the RPs champion global governance reform and innovation aimed at producing strong, resilient and equitable global systems? How can the RPs use soft power diplomacy to enhance disease surveillance and detection capacities and to promote improved regional and international coordination in response to health threats? How can they provide incentives for investment in R&D and manufacturing of medicines to tackle neglected and poverty-related diseases in developing countries?

Title: Weather-inspired ensemble-based probabilistic prediction of COVID-19 Content: The objective of this work is to predict the spread of COVID-19 starting from observed data, using a forecast method inspired by probabilistic weather prediction systems operational today. Results show that this method works well for China: on day 25 we could have predicted well the outcome for the next 35 days. The same method has been applied to Italy and South Korea, and forecasts for the forthcoming weeks are included in this work. For Italy, forecasts based on data collected up to today (24 March) indicate that number of observed cases could grow from the current value of 69,176, to between 101k-180k, with a 50% probability of being between 110k-135k. For South Korea, it suggests that the number of observed cases could grow from the current value of 9,018 (as of the 23rd of March), to values between 8,500 and 9,300, with a 50% probability of being between 8,700 and 8,900. We conclude by suggesting that probabilistic disease prediction systems are possible and could be developed following key ideas and methods from weather forecasting. Having access to skilful daily updated forecasts could help taking better informed decisions on how to manage the spread of diseases such as COVID-19.

Title: A snapshot of European neurosurgery December 2019 vs. March 2020: just before and during the Covid-19 pandemic Content: BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2 or Covid-19), which began as an epidemic in China and spread globally as a pandemic, has necessitated resource management to meet emergency needs of Covid-19 patients and other emergent cases. We have conducted a survey to analyze caseload and measures to adapt indications for a perception of crisis. METHODS: We constructed a questionnaire to survey a snapshot of neurosurgical activity, resources, and indications during 1 week with usual activity in December 2019 and 1 week during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in March 2020. The questionnaire was sent to 34 neurosurgical departments in Europe; 25 departments returned responses within 5 days. RESULTS: We found unexpectedly large differences in resources and indications already before the pandemic. Differences were also large in how much practice and resources changed during the pandemic. Neurosurgical beds and neuro-intensive care beds were significantly decreased from December 2019 to March 2020. The utilization of resources decreased via less demand for care of brain injuries and subarachnoid hemorrhage, postponing surgery and changed surgical indications as a method of rationing resources. Twenty departments (80%) reduced activity extensively, and the same proportion stated that they were no longer able to provide care according to legitimate medical needs. CONCLUSION: Neurosurgical centers responded swiftly and effectively to a sudden decrease of neurosurgical capacity due to relocation of resources to pandemic care. The pandemic led to rationing of neurosurgical care in 80% of responding centers. We saw a relation between resources before the pandemic and ability to uphold neurosurgical services. The observation of extensive differences of available beds provided an opportunity to show how resources that had been restricted already under normal conditions translated to rationing of care that may not be acceptable to the public of seemingly affluent European countries. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00701-020-04482-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Title: An Opportunistic Pathogen Afforded Ample Opportunities: Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Content: The human coronaviruses (CoV) include HCoV-229E, HCoV-OC43, HCoV-NL63, and HCoV-HKU1, some of which have been known for decades. The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) CoV briefly emerged into the human population but was controlled. In 2012, another novel severely human pathogenic CoV—the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)-CoV—was identified in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; 80% of over 2000 human cases have been recorded over five years. Targeted research remains key to developing control strategies for MERS-CoV, a cause of mild illness in its camel reservoir. A new therapeutic toolbox being developed in response to MERS is also teaching us more about how CoVs cause disease. Travel-related cases continue to challenge the world’s surveillance and response capabilities, and more data are needed to understand unexplained primary transmission. Signs of genetic change have been recorded, but it remains unclear whether there is any impact on clinical disease. How camels came to carry the virus remains academic to the control of MERS. To date, human-to-human transmission has been inefficient, but virus surveillance, characterisation, and reporting are key to responding to any future change. MERS-CoV is not currently a pandemic threat; it is spread mainly with the aid of human habit and error.

Title: The Twitter Social Mobility Index: Measuring Social Distancing Practices from Geolocated Tweets Content: Social distancing is an important component of the response to the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Minimizing social interactions and travel reduces the rate at which the infection spreads, and"flattens the curve"such that the medical system can better treat infected individuals. However, it remains unclear how the public will respond to these policies. This paper presents the Twitter Social Mobility Index, a measure of social distancing and travel derived from Twitter data. We use public geolocated Twitter data to measure how much a user travels in a given week. We find a large reduction in travel in the United States after the implementation of social distancing policies, with larger reductions in states that were early adopters and smaller changes in states without policies. Our findings are presented on http://socialmobility.covid19dataresources.org and we will continue to update our analysis during the pandemic.

Title: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): An overview of viral structure and host response Content: Abstract Background and aim As a result of its rapid spread in various countries around the world, on March 11, 2020, WHO issued an announcement of the change in coronavirus disease 2019 status from epidemic to pandemic disease. The virus that causes this disease is indicated originating from animals traded in a live animal market in Wuhan, China. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 can attack lung cells because there are many conserved receptor entries, namely Angiotensin Converting Enzyme-2. The presence of this virus in host cells will initiate various protective responses leading to pneumonia and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. This review aimed to provide an overview related to this virus and examine the body's responses and possible therapies. Method We searched PubMed databases for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2, Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus. Full texts were retrieved, analyzed and developed into an easy-to-understand review. Results We provide a complete review related to structure, origin, and how the body responds to this virus infection and explain the possibility of an immune system over-reaction or cytokine storm. We also include an explanation of how this virus creates modes of avoidance to evade immune system attacks. We further explain the therapeutic approaches that can be taken in the treatment and prevention of this viral infection. Conclusion In summary, based on the structural and immune-evasion system of coronavirus, we suggest several approaches to treat the disease.

Title: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): An overview of viral structure and host response Content: BACKGROUND AND AIM: As a result of its rapid spread in various countries around the world, on March 11, 2020, WHO issued an announcement of the change in coronavirus disease 2019 status from epidemic to pandemic disease. The virus that causes this disease is indicated originating from animals traded in a live animal market in Wuhan, China. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 can attack lung cells because there are many conserved receptor entries, namely Angiotensin Converting Enzyme-2. The presence of this virus in host cells will initiate various protective responses leading to pneumonia and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. This review aimed to provide an overview related to this virus and examine the body's responses and possible therapies. METHOD: We searched PubMed databases for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2, Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus. Full texts were retrieved, analyzed and developed into an easy-to-understand review. RESULTS: We provide a complete review related to structure, origin, and how the body responds to this virus infection and explain the possibility of an immune system over-reaction or cytokine storm. We also include an explanation of how this virus creates modes of avoidance to evade immune system attacks. We further explain the therapeutic approaches that can be taken in the treatment and prevention of this viral infection. CONCLUSION: In summary, based on the structural and immune-evasion system of coronavirus, we suggest several approaches to treat the disease.

Title: The Psychological Impact of Confinement Linked to the Coronavirus Epidemic COVID-19 in Algeria Content: The COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread in countries around the world. The impact of this virus is very great on populations following the application of total and partial containment measures. Our study aims to study the psychological impact of total and partial containment applied in Algeria, on 23 March 2020, following the spread of the virus COVID-19 and also studied the habits and behaviors of the Algerian population during this new way of life and this through a cross-sectional survey launched after three days from the start of confinement to quickly assess the impacts over the period from 23 March to 12 April 2020, by an online questionnaire which allowed us to obtain 678 responses from Internet users, who live in confinement in Algeria. According to the gender variable, our sample includes 405 men, or 59.7%, and 273 women, representing 40.3%. The results of the statistical analysis carried out using SPSS version 22.0 software showed that 50.3% of the respondents were in an anxious situation during these first three weeks of confinement. In addition, 48.2% feels stressed, 46.6% of the respondents confirmed to be feeling in a bad mood, and 47.4% do not stop thinking throughout the day about this epidemic and how to protect themselves. In addition, the study shows that 87.9% of the respondents in Algeria found it difficult to follow the confinement instructions. A significant change in the habits of the population was noted especially for the time of going to bed, the time of waking up, and the use of the Internet as well as the hours devoted to daily reading.

Title: The Europeanization of public health: how does it work? The seminal role of the AIDS case. Content: This article analyzes the path that led the European Union from a somewhat accidental involvement in fighting AIDS to a new and sustainable policy of communicable disease control. It responds to three main questions: Why did an unexpected case lead to the organization of a new sustainable policy? How was this achieved despite national competency over the given policy sector? How did the new policy succeed in covering the enlarged EU? The explanation combines political factors and public health issues. European integration and eastern enlargement made transborder disease management a political necessity. Treaties gave legitimacy to EU policy, while the AIDS matrix furnished the practical procedures: networking, data harmonization, peer-conducted policy coaching, and participation. This pattern of public health management is compatible with national competency, and it is consistent with the democratic values the EU promotes throughout and beyond the enlarged EU. From a theoretical point of view, these patterns of activities constitute the empirically grounded content of the much used but less defined concept of cognitive Europeanization.

Title: Anticipating epidemic transitions with imperfect data Content: Epidemic transitions are an important feature of infectious disease systems. As the transmissibility of a pathogen increases, the dynamics of disease spread shifts from limited stuttering chains of transmission to potentially large scale outbreaks. One proposed method to anticipate this transition are early-warning signals (EWS), summary statistics which undergo characteristic changes as the transition is approached. Although theoretically predicted, their mathematical basis does not take into account the nature of epidemiological data, which are typically aggregated into periodic case reports and subject to reporting error. The viability of EWS for epidemic transitions therefore remains uncertain. Here we demonstrate that most EWS can predict emergence even when calculated from imperfect data. We quantify performance using the area under the curve (AUC) statistic, a measure of how well an EWS distinguishes between numerical simulations of an emerging disease and one which is stationary. Values of the AUC statistic are compared across a range of different reporting scenarios. We find that different EWS respond to imperfect data differently. The mean, variance and first differenced variance all perform well unless reporting error is highly overdispersed. The autocorrelation, autocovariance and decay time perform well provided that the aggregation period of the data is larger than the serial interval and reporting error is not highly overdispersed. The coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis are found to be unreliable indicators of emergence. Overall, we find that seven of ten EWS considered perform well for most realistic reporting scenarios. We conclude that imperfect epidemiological data is not a barrier to using EWS for many potentially emerging diseases.

Title: A close look at the biology of SARS-CoV-2, and the potential influence of weather conditions and seasons on COVID-19 case spread Content: BACKGROUND: There is sufficient epidemiological and biological evidence of increased human susceptibility to viral pathogens such as Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, respiratory syncytial virus, human metapneumovirus and influenza virus, in cold weather. The pattern of outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China during the flu season is further proof that meteorological conditions may potentially influence the susceptibility of human populations to coronaviruses, a situation that may become increasingly evident as the current global pandemic of COVID-19 unfolds. MAIN BODY: A very rapid spread and high mortality rates have characterized the COVID-19 pandemic in countries north of the equator where air temperatures have been seasonally low. It is unclear if the currently high rates of COVID-19 infections in countries of the northern hemisphere will wane during the summer months, or if fewer people overall will become infected with COVID-19 in countries south of the equator where warmer weather conditions prevail through most of the year. However, apart from the influence of seasons, evidence based on the structural biology and biochemical properties of many enveloped viruses similar to the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 or SARS-CoV-2 (aetiology of COVID-19), support the higher likelihood of the latter of the two outcomes. Other factors that may potentially impact the rate of virus spread include the effectiveness of infection control practices, individual and herd immunity, and emergency preparedness levels of countries. CONCLUSION: This report highlights the potential influence of weather conditions, seasons and non-climatological factors on the geographical spread of cases of COVID-19 across the globe.

Title: Mass-casualty incidents: how does an ICU prepare? Content: Despite the ever-present risk of mass-casualty incidents (MCIs) in all geographical regions, there is a limited body of literature detailing specifically how an intensive care unit (ICU) prepares for such an event. When responding to an overwhelming volume of severely injured victims, the intensivist must make a paradigm shift away from providing complete care to all patients to one of preferentially administering care to those with the greatest likelihood of survival. To do this effectively, ICU directors must possess a detailed understanding of the entire disaster response, including organization, triage, staffing, and treatment. This article provides a comprehensive review of each of these topics, as well as a framework on specific elements of critical care and treatment based on published literature and expert opinion to assist the clinician in directing care to where it is most appropriate.

Title: Letter: Changes to neurosurgery resident education following onset of the COVID-19 pandemic Content: Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic has led to the postponement of a large proportion of neurosurgical cases with an accordant radical change in resident experiences. As residents rely upon operative exposure and in-person didactic lectures for education, the disruptions caused by the pandemic have forced programs to revise how they educate residents. Here we surveyed program directors (PDs) to ascertain how they have altered the education and clinical care responsibilities of residents in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods Surveys were sent to the PDs of all ACGME-accredited neurosurgery programs. Survey questions targeted changes in resident staffing and coverage, changes in didactic material delivery, and changes in resident wellness initiatives. PD concerns were also elicited. Results Of the 116 program PDs invited, 57 responded (49.1%). We found that most programs have reduced resident work weeks (65%) and in-hospital resident shift census (95%). Few have redeployed residents and most are increasingly relying on teleconferencing solutions for meetings and resident education. Most commonly programs are using faculty- (91%) or resident-led (65%) lectures, though nearly 75% are supplementing resident education with materials from the Congress of Neurological Surgeons (CNS). Continuing education in spite of decreased case volume and maintaining resident morale are cited as the most common concerns of PDs. Conclusion Here we find that there is great homogeneity in the responses of neurosurgical residency programs to the COVID-19 pandemic. Programs are increasingly incorporating teleconferencing platforms and third-party education materials, most commonly materials from the CNS. Additionally, most respondents indicated that their program has not redeployed residents in the care of COVID-19 positive patients. The results of the present study may assist program directors in developing a uniform resident curriculum and consider wellness initiatives during this time of crisis.

Title: Japanese citizens' behavioral changes and preparedness against COVID-19: How effective is Japan's approach of self-restraint? Content: The Japanese government instituted countermeasures against COVID-19, a pneumonia caused by the new coronavirus, in January 2020. Seeking “people's behavioral changes,” in which the government called on the public to take precautionary measures or exercise self-restraint, was one of the important strategies. The purpose of this study is to investigate how and from when Japanese citizens have changed their precautionary behavior under these circumstances, where the government has only requested their cooperation. This study uses micro data from a cross-sectional survey conducted on an online platform of an online research company, based on quota sampling that is representative of the Japanese population. By the end of March 2020, we had recruited a total of 11,342 respondents, aged from 20 to 64 years. About 85% reported practising the social distancing recommended by the government. More females than males and more older than younger participants are supportive of practicing social distancing. Frequent handwashing is conducted by 86 percent of all, 92 percent of female and 87.9 percent of over-40 participants. The most important event influencing these precautionary actions was the infection aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which occurred in early February 2020 (23%). Information from the central and local governments, received by 60% of the participants, was deemed trustworthy by 50%. However, the results also showed that about 20% of the participants were reluctant to implement proper prevention measures. The statistical analysis indicated that the typical characteristics of those people were male, younger (under 30 years old), unmarried, from lower-income households, with a drinking or smoking habit and a higher extraversion score. To prevent the spread of infection in Japan, it is imperative to address these individuals and encourage their behavioral changes using various means to reach and influence them.

Title: The responsibility of healthcare institutions to protect global health security. Content: New public threats that can rapidly cross borders are continuing to challenge global health securityand will require unprecedented levels of co-operation. At the international level, the response to this challenge led to the approval of revised International Health Regulations (IHR). This unanimously approved document outlines how countries are to prepare for and respond to public health emergencies of international concern in a manner that does not unnecessarily impact on travel and trade.

Title: Data-Driven Classifiers for Predicting Grass Growth in Northern Ireland: A Case Study Content: There are increasing pressures to combat climate change and improve sustainable land management. The agriculture industry is one of the most challenging areas for these changes, especially in Northern Ireland, as agriculture is one of the larger industries. Research has been carried out across the island of Ireland into methods of improving farm efficiency in multiple areas of farming, including livestock health, machinery improvements, and crop growth. Research has been carried out in this study into grass growth in the dairy farming sector, specifically within Northern Ireland. Grass growth prediction aims to inform farmers and policy makers in their decision-making process regarding sustainable land management in agriculture. The present work focuses on analysing and evaluating how data-driven classifiers can be used for grass growth prediction using the data related to soil content, weather, grass quality components etc. Four classifiers, namely Decision Trees, Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, and Neural Networks, are chosen for this purpose. Classification results based on a real-world data set are analysed and compared to evaluate and illustrate the performance and robustness of the classifiers. The results indicate that it is difficult to declare a single classifier with the highest performance and robustness. Nevertheless, it indicates that tree classification methods are better suited to the data to be studied, as opposed to probabilistic methods and weighted methods, e.g., the naïve Bayes classifier obtained a predictive performance of 78% when classifying spring seasonal grass growth data.

Title: Scientia Potentia Est: How the Italian World of Oncology Changes in the COVID-19 Pandemic. Content: PURPOSE After coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic by the WHO, a response from the Italian Health System to react to an unprecedented condition became necessary and sudden. The COVID-19 pandemic has required oncologists to redefine clinical organization and patient management. The purpose of our study was to document the difficulties emerging during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Italian oncology. METHODS We broadcasted an electronic survey to oncologic health care professionals. It consisted of 45 questions ranging from individual perception of pandemic management by hospital centers to physicians' and nurses' psychological distress and patient care. RESULTS A total of 383 oncology health workers participated in the survey. The majority were female (71.8%) and from central Italy (46.2%). Impressively, a total of 357 (93%) participants declared the oncologic department reorganized routine clinical activity, but only 40.5% were adequately trained about the required procedures; 20% of the survey respondents think they have not received adequate and timely protective devices. CONCLUSION Our survey demonstrated the flexibility of oncologic teams. However, the emergency response quality has been heterogeneous, and several drawbacks have emerged from the first analyses investigating how the world of oncology changes in the COVID-19 pandemic. Information, protection, testing, and training of health care professionals are key words that should be kept in mind to encourage recovery after this tragedy and to be ready to face a similar emergency in the future.

Title: Scientia Potentia Est: How the Italian World of Oncology Changes in the COVID-19 Pandemic Content: PURPOSE: After coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic by the WHO, a response from the Italian Health System to react to an unprecedented condition became necessary and sudden. The COVID-19 pandemic has required oncologists to redefine clinical organization and patient management. The purpose of our study was to document the difficulties emerging during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Italian oncology. METHODS: We broadcasted an electronic survey to oncologic health care professionals. It consisted of 45 questions ranging from individual perception of pandemic management by hospital centers to physicians' and nurses' psychological distress and patient care. RESULTS: A total of 383 oncology health workers participated in the survey. The majority were female (71.8%) and from central Italy (46.2%). Impressively, a total of 357 (93%) participants declared the oncologic department reorganized routine clinical activity, but only 40.5% were adequately trained about the required procedures; 20% of the survey respondents think they have not received adequate and timely protective devices. CONCLUSION: Our survey demonstrated the flexibility of oncologic teams. However, the emergency response quality has been heterogeneous, and several drawbacks have emerged from the first analyses investigating how the world of oncology changes in the COVID-19 pandemic. Information, protection, testing, and training of health care professionals are key words that should be kept in mind to encourage recovery after this tragedy and to be ready to face a similar emergency in the future.

Title: The Stirling Protocol – Putting the environment at the heart of prosperity and social inclusion Content: Abstract While the global coronavirus crisis impacts society and the economy in a myriad of ways, it provides, what is likely to be, a once in a lifetime opportunity for us to rethink our response to climate change. According to the 2020 Global Risk Register, extreme weather and climate action failure are the two most likely and impactful risks to the global economy, which now more than ever needs to be avoided. Addressing the major challenges that we face from climate change can often appear to conflict with economic priorities. Add to this the fact that environmental mitigation steps can inadvertently exclude sections of the population and the enormity and complexity of climate change responses can result in paralysis. In contrast, the Stirling Protocol provides the framework for rapid, effective action and comprises three pillars: Environment, Economy & Inclusion. By addressing and balancing these three pillars, the simple protocol can be adopted throughout organisations putting the environment at the heart of sustainable prosperity and inclusion and provide a benchmark for positive action.

Title: COVID-19: Effects of weather conditions on the propagation of respiratory droplets Content: As the number of confirmed cases of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to increase, there has been a rising concern regarding the effect of weather conditions, especially over the upcoming summer, on the transmission of this disease. In this study, we assess the transmission of COVID-19 under different weather conditions by investigating the propagation of infectious respiratory droplets. A comprehensive mathematical model is established to explore their evaporation, heat transfer and kinematics under different temperature, humidity and ventilation conditions. The transmitting pathway of COVID-19 through respiratory droplets is divided into short-range droplet contacts and long-range aerosol exposure. We show that the effect of weather conditions is not monotonic: low temperature and high humidity facilitate droplet contact transmission, while high temperature and low humidity promote the formation of aerosol particles and accumulation of particles with a diameter of 2.5 m or less (PM2.5). Our model suggests that the 6 ft of social distance recommended by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) may be insufficient in certain environmental conditions, as the droplet spreading distance can be as long as 6 m (19.7 ft) in cold and humid weather. The results of this study suggest that the current pandemic may not ebb in the summer of the northern hemisphere without proper intervention, as there is an increasing chance of aerosol transmission. We also emphasize that the meticulous design of building ventilation systems is critical in containing both the droplet contact infections and aerosol exposures.

Title: Key Strategies for Clinical Management and Improvement of Healthcare Services for Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes Patients in the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Settings: Recommendations From the REPROGRAM Consortium Content: Patients with cardiovascular disease and diabetes are at potentially higher risk of infection and fatality due to COVID-19. Given the social and economic costs associated with disability due to these conditions, it is imperative that specific considerations for clinical management of these patients be observed. Moreover, the reorganization of health services around the pandemic response further exacerbates the growing crisis around limited access, treatment compliance, acute medical needs, and mental health of patients in this specific subgroup. Existing recommendations and guidelines emanating from respective bodies have addressed some of the pressure points; however, there are variations and limitations vis a vis patient with multiple comorbidities such as obesity. This article will pull together a comprehensive assessment of the association of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, obesity and COVID-19, its impact on the health systems and how best health systems can respond to mitigate current challenges and future needs. We anticipate that in the context of this pandemic, the cardiovascular disease and diabetes patients need a targeted strategy to ensure the harm to this group does not translate to huge costs to society and to the economy. Finally, we propose a triage and management protocol for patients with cardiovascular disease and diabetes in the COVID-19 settings to minimize harm to patients, health systems and healthcare workers alike.

Title: Does lockdown reduce air pollution? Evidence from 44 cities in northern China Content: Abstract Responding to the ongoing novel coronavirus (agent of COVID-19) outbreak, China implemented “the largest quarantine in human history” in an attempt to prevent the spread of the virus on 23 January 2020. Human mobility and relevant production and consumption activities have since decreased significantly. As a likely side effect of this decrease, many regions have recorded significant reductions in air pollution. We employed daily air pollution data and Intracity Migration Index (IMI) data form Baidu between 1 January and 21 March 2020 for 44 cities in northern China to examine whether, how, and to what extent travel restrictions affected air quality. On the basis of this quantitative analysis, we reached the following conclusions: (1) The reduction of air pollution was strongly associated with travel restrictions during this pandemic—on average, the air quality index (AQI) decreased by 7.80%, and five air pollutants (i.e., SO2, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and CO) decreased by 6.76%, 5.93%, 13.66%, 24.67%, and 4.58%, respectively. (2) Mechanism analysis illustrated that the lockdowns of 44 cities reduced human movements by 69.85%, and a reduction in the AQI, PM2.5, and CO was partially mediated by human mobility, and SO2, PM10, and NO2 were completely mediated. (3) Our findings highlight the importance of understanding the role of green production and consumption.

Title: Distribution of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic and Its Monthly Forecast Based on Seasonal Climate Patterns Content: This paper investigates whether the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic could have been favored by specific weather conditions and other factors. It is found that the 2020 winter weather in the region of Wuhan (Hubei, Central China)—where the virus first broke out in December and spread widely from January to February 2020—was strikingly similar to that of the Northern Italian provinces of Milan, Brescia and Bergamo, where the pandemic broke out from February to March. The statistical analysis was extended to cover the United States of America, which overtook Italy and China as the country with the highest number of confirmed COronaVIrus Disease 19 (COVID-19) cases, and then to the entire world. The found correlation patterns suggest that the COVID-19 lethality significantly worsens (4 times on average) under weather temperatures between 4 °C and 12 °C and relative humidity between 60% and 80%. Possible co-factors such as median population age and air pollution were also investigated suggesting an important influence of the former but not of the latter, at least, on a synoptic scale. Based on these results, specific isotherm world maps were generated to locate, month by month, the world regions that share similar temperature ranges. From February to March, the 4–12 °C isotherm zone extended mostly from Central China toward Iran, Turkey, West-Mediterranean Europe (Italy, Spain and France) up to the United State of America, optimally coinciding with the geographic regions most affected by the pandemic from February to March. It is predicted that in the spring, as the weather gets warm, the pandemic will likely worsen in northern regions (United Kingdom, Germany, East Europe, Russia and North America) while the situation will likely improve in the southern regions (Italy and Spain). However, in autumn, the pandemic could come back and affect the same regions again. The Tropical Zone and the entire Southern Hemisphere, but in restricted colder southern regions, could avoid a strong pandemic because of the sufficiently warm weather during the entire year and because of the lower median age of their population. Google-Earth-Pro interactive-maps covering the entire world are provided as supplementary files.

Title: How to deal with the negative psychological impact of COVID-19 for people who pay attention to anxiety and depression Content: BACKGROUND: The fear of insecurity and uncertainty caused by 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the separation and loss of certain important relationships, and the great changes in lifestyle have awakened strong emotional response, which may cause psychological problems to the general population. However, there are few researches on how the people who pay attention to anxiety and depression coping with negative psychological during the epidemic or major disaster. This study aimed to identify what behaviors can effectively reduce negative emotions during the epidemic. METHODS: From February 1, to March 8 in 2020, we conducted a web-based survey and collected information on general demographic data. The probable depression, anxiety symptoms and coping behaviors was assessed by Patient Health Questionnaire-9 and Generalized anxiety disorder-7 and the self-made Coping Behaviors Questionnaires. RESULT: Among 17249 responders, 7923 and 9326 completed the assessment of depression and anxiety respectively, and all responders finished the assessment of the coping behaviors questionnaires. Our survey population had a high prevalence rate of possible depression disorders and anxiety disorders were34.66% and 56.93%, respectively. Those who are old, female, low education, low income, and cohabiting were more likely to suffer depression and/or anxiety. Students are a high-risk group suffering from depression and/or anxiety. After adjusting for social-demographic factors (e.g. age, sex), depression and anxiety were positively associated with self-injury, doing housework, and having sex or masturbating and negatively associated with singing, drawing, or writing, dating friends online, singing, attending lectures, and doing yoga. CONCLUSION: During the epidemic, our findings identify some spontaneous coping behaviors that can probably relieve the psychological impact of vulnerable groups during the COVID-19 epidemic.

Title: Voluntary Cyclical Distancing: A potential alternative to constant level mandatory social distancing, relying on an 'infection weather report' Content: COVID-19 has significantly changed our daily lives. Stay-at-home orders and forced closings of all non-essential businesses has had a significant impact on our economy. While it is important to ensure that the healthcare system is not overwhelmed, there are many questions that remain about the efficacy of extreme social distancing, and whether there are alternatives to mandatory lockdowns. This paper analyzes the utility of various levels of social distancing, and suggests an alternative approach using voluntary distancing informed by an infectious load index or 'infection weather report.'

Title: Zoonotic disease risk perceptions in the British veterinary profession Content: Abstract In human and veterinary medicine, reducing the risk of occupationally-acquired infections relies on effective infection prevention and control practices (IPCs). In veterinary medicine, zoonoses present a risk to practitioners, yet little is known about how these risks are understood and how this translates into health protective behaviour. This study aimed to explore risk perceptions within the British veterinary profession and identify motivators and barriers to compliance with IPCs. A cross-sectional study was conducted using veterinary practices registered with the Royal College of Veterinary Surgeons. Here we demonstrate that compliance with IPCs is influenced by more than just knowledge and experience, and understanding of risk is complex and multifactorial. Out of 252 respondents, the majority were not concerned about the risk of zoonoses (57.5%); however, a considerable proportion (34.9%) was. Overall, 44.0% of respondents reported contracting a confirmed or suspected zoonoses, most frequently dermatophytosis (58.6%). In veterinary professionals who had previous experience of managing zoonotic cases, time or financial constraints and a concern for adverse animal reactions were not perceived as barriers to use of personal protective equipment (PPE). For those working in large animal practice, the most significant motivator for using PPE was concerns over liability. When assessing responses to a range of different “infection control attitudes”, veterinary nurses tended to have a more positive perspective, compared with veterinary surgeons. Our results demonstrate that IPCs are not always adhered to, and factors influencing motivators and barriers to compliance are not simply based on knowledge and experience. Educating veterinary professionals may help improve compliance to a certain extent, however increased knowledge does not necessarily equate to an increase in risk-mitigating behaviour. This highlights that the construction of risk is complex and circumstance-specific and to get a real grasp on compliance with IPCs, this construction needs to be explored in more depth.

Title: The nexus between COVID-19, temperature and exchange rate in Wuhan city: New findings from partial and multiple wavelet coherence Content: This study attempts to document the nexus between weather, COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan and the Chinese economy. We used daily average temperature (hourly data), daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan, and RMB (Chinese currency) exchange rate to represent the weather, COVID-19 outbreak and the Chinese economy, respectively. The methodology of Wavelet Transform Coherence (WTC), Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC) and Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC) is employed to analyze the daily data collected from 21st January 2020 to 31st March 2020. The results have revealed a significant coherence between the series at different time-frequency combinations. The overall results suggest the insignificance of an increase in temperature to contain or slow down the new COVID-19 infections. The RMB exchange rate and the COVID-19 showed an out phase coherence at specific time-frequency spots suggesting a negative but limited impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan on the Chinese export economy. Our results are contrary to many earlier studies which suggest a significant role of temperature in slowing down the COVID-19 spread. These results can have important policy implications for the containment of COVID-19 spread and macro-economic management with respect to changes in the weather.

Title: How did general practitioners protect themselves, their family, and staff during the SARS epidemic in Hong Kong? Content: CONTEXT Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a newly emerging infectious disease and how the frontline community doctors respond to it is not known. OBJECTIVES To explore the impact of SARS on general practitioners (GPs) in Hong Kong. DESIGN A cross sectional survey. SETTING Community based primary care clinics. PARTICIPANTS 183 family medicine tutors affiliated with a local university. Postal survey sent to all tutors with a 74.8% response rate. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Change of clinical behaviour and practices during the epidemic; anxiety level of primary care doctors. RESULTS All agreed SARS had changed their clinical practices. Significant anxiety was found in family doctors. Three quarters of respondents recalled requesting more investigations while a quarter believed they had over-prescribed antibiotics. GPs who were exposed to SARS or who had worked in high infection districts were less likely to quarantine themselves (10.8% versus 33.3%; p<0.01; 6.5% versus 27.5%; p<0.01 respectively). Exposure to SARS, the infection rates in their working district, and anxiety levels had significant impact on the level of protection or prescribing behaviour. CONCLUSION The clinical practice of GPs changed significantly as a result of SARS. Yet, those did not quarantine themselves suggesting other factors may have some part to play. As failure to apply isolation precautions to suspected cases of SARS was one major reason for its spread, a contingency plan from the government to support family doctors is of utmost importance. Interface between private and public sectors are needed in Hong Kong to prepare for any future epidemics.

Title: Impact of weather indicators on the COVID-19 outbreak: A multi-state study in India Content: The present study examines the impact of weather indicators on the COVID-19 outbreak in the majorly affected states of India. In this study, we hypothesize that the weather indicators could significantly influence the impact of the corona virus. The Kendall and Spearman rank correlation tests were chosen to conduct the statistical analysis. In this regard, we compiled a daily dataset including confirmed case counts, Recovered case counts, Deceased cases, Average Temperature, Maximum Relative Humidity, Maximum Wind Speed for six most affected states of India during the period of March 25, 2020 to April 24, 2020. We investigated that the average Humidity and Average Temperature seven days ago play a significant role in the recovery of coronavirus cases. The rise in average temperature will improve the recovery rate in the days to come. The cities with very high humidity levels or dry weather conditions have high probabilities of recovery from COVID-19. The findings of this research will help the policymakers to identify risky geographic areas and enforce timely preventive measures.

Title: Distribution of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic and Its Monthly Forecast Based on Seasonal Climate Patterns Content: This paper investigates whether the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic could have been favored by specific weather conditions and other factors. It is found that the 2020 winter weather in the region of Wuhan (Hubei, Central China)-where the virus first broke out in December and spread widely from January to February 2020-was strikingly similar to that of the Northern Italian provinces of Milan, Brescia and Bergamo, where the pandemic broke out from February to March. The statistical analysis was extended to cover the United States of America, which overtook Italy and China as the country with the highest number of confirmed COronaVIrus Disease 19 (COVID-19) cases, and then to the entire world. The found correlation patterns suggest that the COVID-19 lethality significantly worsens (4 times on average) under weather temperatures between 4 ∘ C and 12 ∘ C and relative humidity between 60% and 80%. Possible co-factors such as median population age and air pollution were also investigated suggesting an important influence of the former but not of the latter, at least, on a synoptic scale. Based on these results, specific isotherm world maps were generated to locate, month by month, the world regions that share similar temperature ranges. From February to March, the 4-12 ∘ C isotherm zone extended mostly from Central China toward Iran, Turkey, West-Mediterranean Europe (Italy, Spain and France) up to the United State of America, optimally coinciding with the geographic regions most affected by the pandemic from February to March. It is predicted that in the spring, as the weather gets warm, the pandemic will likely worsen in northern regions (United Kingdom, Germany, East Europe, Russia and North America) while the situation will likely improve in the southern regions (Italy and Spain). However, in autumn, the pandemic could come back and affect the same regions again. The Tropical Zone and the entire Southern Hemisphere, but in restricted colder southern regions, could avoid a strong pandemic because of the sufficiently warm weather during the entire year and because of the lower median age of their population. Google-Earth-Pro interactive-maps covering the entire world are provided as supplementary files.

Title: Extreme temperature event and mass mortality of insectivorous bats Content: A mass mortality event involving Chaerephon plicatus and Taphozous theobaldi bats occurred during a heat wave in April 2016 in Cambodia. This was investigated to clarify the causes of the die-off and assess the risk to public health. Field evidences, clinical signs, and gross pathology findings were consistent with a heat stress hypothesis. However, the detection of a novel bat paramyxovirus raises questions about its role as a contributing factor or a coincidental finding. Systematic documentation of bat die-offs related to extreme weather events is necessary to improve understanding of the effect of changing weather patterns on bat populations and the ecosystem services they provide.

Title: Evolution of practice gaps in gastrointestinal and endoscopic surgery: 2012 report from the Society of American Gastrointestinal and Endoscopic Surgeons (SAGES) Continuing Education Committee. Content: BACKGROUND In an effort to fulfill its charge to develop and maintain a comprehensive educational program to serve the members of the Society of American Gastrointestinal and Endoscopic Surgeons (SAGES), the SAGES Continuing Education Committee (CEC) reports a summary of findings related to its evaluation of the 2012 SAGES annual meeting. METHODS All attendees to the 2012 annual meeting had the opportunity to complete an immediate postmeeting questionnaire as part of their continuing medical education (CME) certification in which they identified up to two learning themes, answered questions related to potential practice change items that are based on those learning themes, and complete a needs assessment related to important learning topics for future meetings. In addition, participants in the postgraduate and hands-on courses were asked to complete questions about case volume and comfort levels related to procedures/topics in those courses. All respondents to this initial survey were sent a 3-month follow-up questionnaire in which they were asked how successfully they had implemented the intended practice changes and what, if any, barriers they encountered. Postgraduate and hands-on course participants completed case volume and comfort level questions. Descriptive statistical analysis of this deidentified data was undertaken. RESULTS Response rates were 42% and 56% for CME-eligible attendees/respondents for the immediate postmeeting and 3-month follow-up questionnaires, respectively. Top learning themes for respondents were Bariatric, Hernia, Foregut, and Colorectal. Improving minimally invasive surgical (MIS) technique and managing complications related to MIS procedures were top intended practice changes. Partial implementation was common with top barriers including cost restrictions, lack of institutional support, and lack of time. CONCLUSIONS The 2012 annual meeting analysis provides insight into educational needs among respondents and will help with planning content for future meetings.

Title: Impact of weather on COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey Content: The coronavirus pandemic, which has numerous global implications, has led people to believe that nothing will be the same as before. The present day is dominated by studies on determining the factors that affect, taking preventive actions, and trying to find an effective treatment on top priority. Meteorological parameters are among the crucial factors affecting infectious diseases. The present study examines the correlation between weather and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by considering nine cities in Turkey. In this regard, temperature (°C), dew point (°C), humidity (%), and wind speed (mph) are considered as parameters of weather. Research states that the incubation period of COVID-19 varies from 1â¯day to 14â¯days. Therefore, the effects of each parameter within 1, 3, 7, and 14â¯days are examined. In addition, the population is included as an effective parameter for evaluation. The analyses are conducted based on Spearman's correlation coefficients. The results showed that the highest correlations were observed for population, wind speed 14â¯days ago, and temperature on the day, respectively. The study results may guide authorities and decision-makers on taking specific measures for the cities.

Title: Impact of weather on COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey Content: Abstract The coronavirus pandemic, which has numerous global implications, has led people to believe that nothing will be the same as before. The present day is dominated by studies on determining the factors that affect, taking preventive actions, and trying to find an effective treatment on top priority. Meteorological parameters are among the crucial factors affecting infectious diseases. The present study examines the correlation between weather and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by considering nine cities in Turkey. In this regard, temperature (°C), dew point (°C), humidity (%), and wind speed (mph) are considered as parameters of weather. Research states that the incubation period of COVID-19 varies from 1 day to 14 days. Therefore, the effects of each parameter within 1, 3, 7, and 14 days are examined. In addition, the population is included as an effective parameter for evaluation. The analyses are conducted based on Spearman's correlation coefficients. The results showed that the highest correlations were observed for population, wind speed 14 days ago, and temperature on the day, respectively. The study results may guide authorities and decision-makers on taking specific measures for the cities.

Title: Managing business relationships during a pandemic: Conducting a relationship audit and developing a path forward Content: Abstract During stable times, firms will generally aim to create reliable B2B relationships that provide increased efficiency and profitability. However, tumultuous times, such as the time during a major pandemic, cause many significant disruptions in both internal and external environmental domains. Thus, we argue that it is critical during this time to reevaluate the company's business relationships as a whole. While long-term partnerships are great for handling incremental changes during stable times, disruptive environmental changes may require managers to consider disruptive changes to their businesses. A pandemic may also present opportunities for establishing new relationships as there may be other partners/suppliers who are better equipped to help the company address urgent short-term needs and to capitalize on significant long-term opportunities. In this paper, we design a new relationship audit template to help B2B firms weather the immediate crisis at hand and position themselves more strategically for the future. We explore this idea in relation to the coronavirus outbreak, introduce the idea of a B2B crisis relationship audit, and offer potential steps forward for firms.

Title: Emerging coordination and knowledge transfer process during disease outbreak Content: When multiple agencies respond to a disease outbreak (i.e., H1N1 and SARS), the coordination of actions is complex and evolves over time. There has not been any systematic empirical study of the dynamics of emerging coordination behaviour and knowledge transfer process during a disease outbreak. In this paper, we first introduce our approach for the analysis of multi-agency intervention during a disease outbreak using the study of social networks. Using social networks and its analytic framework, we explore questions such as: How does the multi-agency coordination emerge for supporting the complex knowledge transfer process during different phases of disease outbreak? How effective are these formal and informal coordination mechanisms in achieving a robust outcome in response coordination through effective knowledge transfer process during the outbreak? What are the key lessons learned by studying the emerging coordination and knowledge transfer process during past disease outbreak in improving the multi-agency preparedness for dealing with future outbreaks? The discussion is supported by a qualitative study of the implementation of the results of the analysis. We reveal that profound understanding of social network behaviour and emerging coordination concepts are pivotal to the optimisation of knowledge transfer process which is a prerequisite for successful outbreak intervention. We look qualitatively at how Hunter New England Area Health Services applied these concepts to lead a successful coordination plan during an H1N109 endemic.

Title: Warmer weather and global trends in the coronavirus COVID-19 Content: Predicting COVID-19 epidemic development in the upcoming warm season has attracted much attention in the hope of providing helps to fight the epidemic. It requires weather (environmental) factors to be included in prediction models, but there are few models to achieve it successfully. In this study, we proposed a new concept of environmental infection rate (RE), based on floating time of respiratory droplets in the air and inactivation rate of virus to solve the problem. More than half of the particles in the droplets can float in the atmosphere for 1-2 hours. The prediction results showed that high RE values (>3.5) are scattered around 30N in winter (Dec.-Feb.). As the weather warms, its distribution area expands and extends to higher latitudes of northern hemisphere, reaching its maximum in April, and then shrinking northward. These indicated that the spread of COVID-19 in most parts of the northern hemisphere is expected to decline after Apr., but the risks in high latitudes will remain high in May. In the south of southern hemisphere, the RE values tend to subside from Apr. to July. The high modeled RE values up to July, however, suggested that warmer weather will not stop COVID-19 from spreading. Public health intervention is needed to overcome the outbreak.

Title: Leveraging a Bayesian Network approach to model and analyze supplier vulnerability to severe weather risk: A case study of the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain following Hurricane Maria Content: Abstract The United States government has identified the health care sector as part of the critical infrastructure for homeland security to protect citizens against health risks arising from terrorism, natural disasters, and epidemics. Citizens also have expectations about the role that health care plays in enjoying a good quality of life, by providing response systems to handle emergencies and other illness situations adequately. Among the systems required to support desired performance levels is a robust and resilient pharmaceutical supply chain that is free of disruption. Shortages of drugs place undue pressure on healthcare providers to devise alternative approaches to administer patient care. With climate change expected to result in increasingly severe weather patterns in the future, it is critical that logistics engineers understand the impact that a catastrophic weather event could have on supply chain disruption to facilitate the design of supply systems that are robust and resilient. This study investigates the main causal and intermediate events that led to risk propagation in, and disruption of, the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain following Hurricane Maria. A causality Bayesian model is developed to depict linkages between risk events and quantify the associated cumulative risk. The quantification is further examined through different advanced techniques such as predictive inference reasoning and sensitivity analysis. The general interpretation of these analyses suggests that port resilience is imperative to pharmaceutical supply chain performance in the case of Puerto Rico.

Title: People at Risk of Influenza Pandemics: The Evolution of Perception and Behavior Content: Influenza pandemics can severely impact human health and society. Understanding public perception and behavior toward influenza pandemics is important for minimizing the effects of such events. Public perception and behavior are expected to change over the course of an influenza pandemic, but this idea has received little attention in previous studies. Our study aimed to understand the dynamics of public perception and behavior over the course of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Three consecutive cross-sectional surveys were administered among Beijing residents with random-digit dialing techniques in March 2008 and August and November 2009. Effective samples of 507, 508 and 1006 respondents were interviewed in each of the three surveys, respectively. The mean scores of risk perception were low to moderate across the three surveys. The perceived risk of infection of self was significantly lower than that of the community, revealing an optimistic bias. Longitudinally, the perceived risk of contracting H1N1 increased, whereas the perceived risk of being unable to obtain medicine and medical care once influenza permeated the community first increased and then decreased. Responsive actions toward influenza varied. Most respondents took actions that required little extra effort, such as ventilating rooms; these actions did not change over time. Comparatively, a smaller number of respondents took actions for coping with influenza, such as vaccination; however, these actions were taken by an increasing number of respondents over time. The association between risk perception and behavior was unstable. Positive, insignificant, and negative associations were obtained in the three surveys. In conclusion, the evolving patterns of risk perception and responsive behavior over the course of an influenza pandemic are sensitive to how risk and behavior are defined and scoped.

Title: Social scientists scramble to study pandemic, in real time Content: If pandemic lockdowns have people feeling a bit like lab rats stuck in cages, in some ways that’s exactly what they are As the coronavirus touches on virtually every part of life around the globe, social scientists are rushing to suck up real-time data on how people are responding to the unfolding pandemic Economists are gathering data about supply chains Political scientists are scrutinizing how government responses track with ideology Psychologists are monitoring children in after-school programs Behavioral scientists are surveying thousands of people to see how they respond to information in a crisis

Title: Does lockdown reduce air pollution? Evidence from 44 cities in northern China Content: Responding to the ongoing novel coronavirus (agent of COVID-19) outbreak, China implemented "the largest quarantine in human history" in Wuhan on 23 January 2020. Similar quarantine measures were imposed on other Chinese cities within days. Human mobility and relevant production and consumption activities have since decreased significantly. As a likely side effect of this decrease, many regions have recorded significant reductions in air pollution. We employed daily air pollution data and Intracity Migration Index (IMI) data form Baidu between 1 January and 21 March 2020 for 44 cities in northern China to examine whether, how, and to what extent travel restrictions affected air quality. On the basis of this quantitative analysis, we reached the following conclusions: (1) The reduction of air pollution was strongly associated with travel restrictions during this pandemic-on average, the air quality index (AQI) decreased by 7.80%, and five air pollutants (i.e., SO2, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and CO) decreased by 6.76%, 5.93%, 13.66%, 24.67%, and 4.58%, respectively. (2) Mechanism analysis illustrated that the lockdowns of 44 cities reduced human movements by 69.85%, and a reduction in the AQI, PM2.5, and CO was partially mediated by human mobility, and SO2, PM10, and NO2 were completely mediated. (3) Our findings highlight the importance of understanding the role of green production and consumption.