Development and Validation of a Regional Multi-scale System for the Prediction of the Patient Flow in the Emergencies and the Need for Hospitalization

Study Overview
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Brief Summary
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The main objective of this retrospective study is to validate a prediction system of emergencies department (ED) attendance on a wide range of time and the need for hospitalization, at various levels of perimeter (with all emergency departments or one ED in particular), with all patients or with one sub-group of patients (age, gravity, care).

Detailed Description
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As secondary objectives, the study aims: to measure the influence of different factors as environmental or structural and to identify the modifiable factors, then to allow us to test by simulation, impact of various interventions (for example: opening of hospitals and reinforcement of ED teams) on arrival flows or regenerated tension inside ED teams. to study the relation between the flows (arrival patients, hospitalized patients) and the time of ED visit or the indicators of tension of ED team. Typology of ED in the region of Paris permitting afterward comparison the benchmarking type between similar structures. This retrospective study will be performed on database: individual data in the region of Paris of summation of ED visits and data on the structures of health cares, as well as environmental data (principal given cares, weather, moves, circulations, pollution, strikes, vacations, etc.)

Official Title
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Development and Validation of a Regional Multi-scale System in Ile-de-France for the Prediction of the Patient Flow in the Emergency Department and the Need for Hospitalization

Conditions
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Emergency Department, Hospitalization

Participation Criteria
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Eligibility Criteria
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Inclusion Criteria: All subjects have been recorded as patients in emergency departments between 2010 and 2015. Exclusion Criteria: None
Sexes Eligible for Study
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All

Accepts Healthy Volunteers
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No

Study Plan
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How is the study designed?
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What is the study measuring?
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Primary Outcome Measures

| Outcome Measure | Measure Description | Time Frame |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Prediction of emergency department visits | Calculated base on regional database: individual data of summation of ED visits in the region of Paris and structural data of health cares | throughout the study, an average of 18 months | 

Secondary Outcome Measures

| Outcome Measure | Measure Description | Time Frame |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Prediction by age | By sub-group of child or senior | throughout the study, an average of 18 months | 
| Prediction by lever of gravity |  | throughout the study, an average of 18 months | 
| Prediction by type of care | By type : (medical, surgical or intensive) care | throughout the study, an average of 18 months | 
| Prediction by need of hospitalization or no |  | throughout the study, an average of 18 months | 
| Relation between flow of patients and indicator of tension of team |  | throughout the study, an average of 18 months | 
| Relation between flow of patients and time of ED visit |  | throughout the study, an average of 18 months | 
| Typology of ED of the region of Paris |  | throughout the study, an average of 18 months | 

 Terms related to the study
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Keywords Provided by Centre Hospitalier Valida
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Hospitalization, Multi-scale, Prediction, Patient Flow, Emergency Department, Ile-de-France