Predictive Models for Intensive Care Admission and Death of COVID-19

Study Overview
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Brief Summary
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To build simple and reliable predictive scores for intensive care admissions and deaths in COVID19 patients. These scores adhere to the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) reporting guidelines. The outcomes of the study are (i) admission in the Intensive Care Unit admission and (ii) death. All patients admitted in the Emergency Department with a positive reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction SARS-COV2 test were included in the study. Routine clinical and laboratory data were collected at their admission and during their stay. Chest X-Rays and CT-Scans were performed and analyzed by a senior radiologist. Generalized Linear Models using a binomial distribution with a logit link function (R software version X) were used to develop predictive scores for (i) admission to ICU among emergency ward patients; (ii) death among ICU patients. A first panel of Number Models with the highest AIC (BIC) was preselected. Ten-fold cross-validation was then used to estimate the out-of-sample prediction error among these preselected models. The one with the smallest prediction error was in the end singled out .

Official Title
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Development and Validation of Predictive Models for Intensive Care Admission and Death of COVID-19 Patients in a Secondary Care Hospital in Belgium.

Conditions
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COVID19, Pneumonia, Viral, Inflammatory Response

Intervention / Treatment
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* Other: predict admission of covid-19 patients to ICU and death with routine and quickly avalaible clinical, biological and radiological variables?


Participation Criteria
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Eligibility Criteria
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Inclusion Criteria: RT-PCR + SARS Cov2 pneumonia Exclusion Criteria: < 18 ans -* GOLD 3 or 4 CPOD

Ages Eligible for Study
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Minimum Age: 18 Years

Sexes Eligible for Study
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All

Study Plan
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How is the study designed?
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Arms and Interventions

| Participant Group/Arm | Intervention/Treatment |
| --- | --- |
| covid ICU patients<br> | Other: predict admission of covid-19 patients to ICU and death with routine and quickly avalaible clinical, biological and radiological variables?<br>* patients were questioned about their usual medication (Sartan, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug, immunosuppressive drugs), their health condition (diabetes, hypertension, tobacco use, mental status). The Body mass index was computed. Age, gender, caucasian/african, weight, body mass index, number of days with symptoms before hospitalization, asthenia, pyrexia, dyspnea, chest pain, digestive sign, anosmia, ageusia, confusion, Travel or contact < one month, cigarette consumption ,hypertension, diabetes, mental status, angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors, Sartan, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, immunosuppressive drugs, SpO2,Thoracic Computerized Tomography : % of lung injury, Thoracic Computerized Tomography : density of lung injury, blood type, white blood cells, neutrophils, lymphocytes, blood platelets, fibrinogen, ferritin, triglycerides, LDH, troponin, CRP. The dates of admission to ICU and death were recorded<br>|
| covid conventionnal ward<br> | Other: predict admission of covid-19 patients to ICU and death with routine and quickly avalaible clinical, biological and radiological variables?<br>* patients were questioned about their usual medication (Sartan, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug, immunosuppressive drugs), their health condition (diabetes, hypertension, tobacco use, mental status). The Body mass index was computed. Age, gender, caucasian/african, weight, body mass index, number of days with symptoms before hospitalization, asthenia, pyrexia, dyspnea, chest pain, digestive sign, anosmia, ageusia, confusion, Travel or contact < one month, cigarette consumption ,hypertension, diabetes, mental status, angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors, Sartan, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, immunosuppressive drugs, SpO2,Thoracic Computerized Tomography : % of lung injury, Thoracic Computerized Tomography : density of lung injury, blood type, white blood cells, neutrophils, lymphocytes, blood platelets, fibrinogen, ferritin, triglycerides, LDH, troponin, CRP. The dates of admission to ICU and death were recorded<br>|

What is the study measuring?
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Primary Outcome Measures

| Outcome Measure | Measure Description | Time Frame |
| --- | --- | --- |
| admission to ICU |  | through study completion, an average of 1 year | 

Secondary Outcome Measures

| Outcome Measure | Measure Description | Time Frame |
| --- | --- | --- |
| death |  | through study completion, an average of 1 year | 

 Terms related to the study
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Keywords Provided by Centre Hospitalier Valida
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COVID19, prediction scores, ICU admission, death, TRIPOD.