Dyskusja:Global Warming

message: Scenario families contain individual scenarios with common themes. The six families of scenarios discussed in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report (TAR) and Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) are A1FI, A1B, A1T, A2, B1, and B2.
The IPCC did not state that any of the SRES scenarios were more likely to occur than others, therefore none of the SRES scenarios represent a "best guess" of future emissions.
, in 
The datas for SRES primary fossil energy peak assumptions can be compared with assumptions based on EIAhttp://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm fossil reserve and production datas with peak coal 2030-2035 mainly because of china with about 50% world production but less than 30 years reserves, peak oil 2014-2015 because of less world reserves and actual low price for reinvestments in expensive productions like in USA fracking with less reserves Venezuela sulfid rich tar and polar arctic deep sea oil; and peak gas 2030-2035 with likely additional fracking gas findings also in china, india etc. and high reserves in USA, russia, gulf countries also in mediterranean sea (about 18 year EU demand). Since the rising rate of carbon dioxide left in atmosphere is under 2ppm annually also after IPCC and NASA it would need over 200 years for a doubling from about 400 ppm today to 800ppm with +0.5° C effect for every +100ppm, all together for +400 ppm +2° C, like the 0.5°C effect assumed before for the rising over warm time normal 280ppm to 380ppm always with other increasing and decreasing effects like cooling from sulfates set free from burning of fossil reserves or vulcanism and solar cycles. In every case no one has fossil reserves for holding 200 years the same exploration rate like today with under +2ppm risin of carbon dioxide annually. Global warming was mainly local at arctic area based on a cooling phase before by streaming changes instead global equal like to be awaited for green house gases and sea level rise was normal most in equatorial area not in main warmed up arctic area based also on river and coast erosion and continental drift not ice melting like not sea level increasing arctic swimming ice melting and just about 2cm in 100 years from greenland ice melting and also not from volume expansion that can`t happen in everywhere always cold deep sea because warm water is always rising to the sea surface increasing night infrared radiation. An equal heating up by greenhouse gases is more storm decreasing than increasing because it is decreasing the storm causation the temperature difference between low and high altitudes with normal main warming up over the earth surface decreased. An ice melting is not causing an acceleration warm up effect called albedo effect over decreased sun ray radiation at day time because of also increased infrared radiation at night time of dark surfaces. Another big source for methane and carbon dioxide increase was also the desertification in africa and aral sea see also in new O-C-O NASA maps slowed down from increased rainfall by warming up over sea causing more sea water vapourisation as the original source of all rain or other water fallouts. Increased water fallouts, melting of permafrost and more carbon dioxide for plants fertilization caused by carbon dioxide global warming are increasing the biomass on landside thereby rebinding carbon dioxide mainly rebound by photosynthesis and chalk creators inside the world seas producing also as green lunge of the earth about 70% of the world oxygen. The natural conversion of carbon dioxide is about 550 Gt annually compared with about 30Gt annually from human sources but just 12Gt left in atmosphere annually in a self stabilizing carbon cycle else always already accelerated; long time with always less carbon dioxide left in atmosphere in long time earth climate history. The temperature increase charts 1870-today don`t correlate with carbon dioxide absolute levels rising charts with cooling phase and about same temperature rising at beginning and late phase. The today climate is just a lower than normal peak between about 100 000 years ice times still in a quaternary ice time from long time sun cycles caused by the run time of the sun inner fusion energy by photons to it`s surface about some 10 000 years leading also to sun`s next break in. Sure about global warming is the saving of heating costs, increased harvest times, decrease of all winter damages from snow and ice including coldness deaths and general more urgently needed more rainfall in desertification areas worldwide. Polar bears did increase in population from about 5000 to 25 000 and are likely liking a warmer not deathly colder climate for hunting seals from ice floes far outside as good long distance swimmers like penguins who must find ice free places for the eggs. In the one side colder antarctica with about 90% of the world ice the ice increasing was approximately 82 Gt per year (with significant regional variation), reducing global sea-level rise by 0.23 mm per year. In general the amount of animal species are increased in warm times and decreased in ice times like true for humans also today mainly because of loosing the food base caused by desertification, landsides staying all year under ice and sea level decline of about 120m decreasing also fish but greenhouse gas sulfide hexafluoride can solve the problem today for over multiple times 3200 years until fluorine reserves are going out then only laughing gas production left as last chance. The real problem in future is the energy problem left but first after the fossil energy maximum about 2025-2030 and can be solved with atomic power based on over 4 Gt sea water uranium under 300$/kg and thorium enough for 100 000 up to a million years today total world energy demand.all addings by kayuweboehm(at)yahoo.de including following example values for SRES scenarios exploration peaks
Scenario descriptions are based on those in AR4, which are identical to those in TAR.Summary for Policymakers, in .
===A1===
The A1 scenarios are of a more integrated world. The A1 family of scenarios is characterized by:
* Rapid economic growth.
* A global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines.
* The quick spread of new and efficient technologies.
* A convergent world - income and way of life converge between regions. Extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide.
For example with primary fossil energy peaks: 
* A1 ASF - coal 2100 at 4.5 * 2010 production, oil 2020 and gas 2050 at 3.5 * 2010 production 
* A1T Message - coal 2030, oil 2050 at 2 * 2010 production and gas 2060 at 2.8 * 2010 productionhttp://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/data/allscen.xls 
There are subsets to the A1 family based on their technological emphasis:
* A1FI - An emphasis on fossil-fuels (Fossil Intensive).
* A1B - A balanced emphasis on all energy sources.
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===A2===
The A2 scenarios are of a more divided world. The A2 family of scenarios is characterized by:
* A world of independently operating, self-reliant nations.
* Continuously increasing population.
* Regionally oriented economic development.
For example with primary fossil energy peaks: 
* A2 ASF - coal 2090 at 8.5 * 2010 production, oil 2020 and gas 2100 at 3.7 * 2010 production 
* A2 Message - coal 2100 at 9 * 2010 production, oil 2030 and gas 2100 at 2.7 * 2010 productionname="SRES datas" 
===B1===
The B1 scenarios are of a world more integrated, and more ecologically friendly. The B1 scenarios are characterized by:
* Rapid economic growth as in A1, but with rapid changes towards a service and information economy.
* Population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining as in A1.
* Reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies.
* An emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability.
For example with primary fossil energy peaks: 
* B1 ASF - coal 2050 at 2.7 * 2010 production, oil 2020 and gas 2050 at 3.8 * 2010 production 
* B1 Message - coal 2020, oil 2030 and gas 2060 at 2.5 * 2010 productionname="SRES datas" 
===B2===
The B2 scenarios are of a world more divided, but more ecologically friendly. The B2 scenarios are characterized by:
* Continuously increasing population, but at a slower rate than in A2.
* Emphasis on local rather than global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability.
* Intermediate levels of economic development.
* Less rapid and more fragmented technological change than in A1 and B1.
For example with primary fossil energy peaks: 
* B2 ASF - coal 2100 at 4.8 * 2010 production, oil 2020 and gas 2070 at 2.8 * 2010 production 
* B2 Message - coal 2100 at 3 + 2010 production, oil 2030 and gas 2080 at 3.8 * 2010 productionname="SRES datas"
thread_title:  IPCC SRES Fraud Scenarios 

message: The A1 scenarios are of a more integrated world. The A1 family of scenarios is characterized by:
* Rapid economic growth.
* A global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines.
* The quick spread of new and efficient technologies.
* A convergent world - income and way of life converge between regions. Extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide.
For example with primary fossil energy peaks: 
* A1 ASF - coal 2100 at 4.5 * 2010 production, oil 2020 and gas 2050 at 3.5 * 2010 production 
* A1T Message - coal 2030, oil 2050 at 2 * 2010 production and gas 2060 at 2.8 * 2010 productionhttp://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/data/allscen.xls 
There are subsets to the A1 family based on their technological emphasis:
* A1FI - An emphasis on fossil-fuels (Fossil Intensive).
* A1B - A balanced emphasis on all energy sources.
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thread_title: A1

message: The A2 scenarios are of a more divided world. The A2 family of scenarios is characterized by:
* A world of independently operating, self-reliant nations.
* Continuously increasing population.
* Regionally oriented economic development.
For example with primary fossil energy peaks: 
* A2 ASF - coal 2090 at 8.5 * 2010 production, oil 2020 and gas 2100 at 3.7 * 2010 production 
* A2 Message - coal 2100 at 9 * 2010 production, oil 2030 and gas 2100 at 2.7 * 2010 productionname="SRES datas"
thread_title: A2

message: The B1 scenarios are of a world more integrated, and more ecologically friendly. The B1 scenarios are characterized by:
* Rapid economic growth as in A1, but with rapid changes towards a service and information economy.
* Population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining as in A1.
* Reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies.
* An emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability.
For example with primary fossil energy peaks: 
* B1 ASF - coal 2050 at 2.7 * 2010 production, oil 2020 and gas 2050 at 3.8 * 2010 production 
* B1 Message - coal 2020, oil 2030 and gas 2060 at 2.5 * 2010 productionname="SRES datas"
thread_title: B1

message: The B2 scenarios are of a world more divided, but more ecologically friendly. The B2 scenarios are characterized by:
* Continuously increasing population, but at a slower rate than in A2.
* Emphasis on local rather than global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability.
* Intermediate levels of economic development.
* Less rapid and more fragmented technological change than in A1 and B1.
For example with primary fossil energy peaks: 
* B2 ASF - coal 2100 at 4.8 * 2010 production, oil 2020 and gas 2070 at 2.8 * 2010 production 
* B2 Message - coal 2100 at 3 + 2010 production, oil 2030 and gas 2080 at 3.8 * 2010 productionname="SRES datas"
thread_title: B2