2020 Census: Progress Report on Using Administrative Records to Control Enumeration Costs
Published: 2015-11-03T00:00:00

Fast Facts:

Highlights:
section_title: Why GAO Did This Study
paragraphs: With a life-cycle cost of about $13 billion, the 2010 Census was the most expensive U.S. census in history and was 56 percent more costly than the $8.1 billion 2000 Census (in constant 2010 dollars). The Bureau estimates that its use of administrative records in the 2020 Census will reduce the cost compared to traditional census methods by $1.4 billion.
Given the potential cost savings associated with the use of administrative records, this testimony, which is based on a report GAO released last month, focuses on (1) the Bureau's plans for using administrative records, and the opportunities and challenges the Bureau faces going forward; and (2) the key assumptions supporting estimates of expected cost savings. To meet these objectives, GAO reviewed Bureau planning documents and test plans, and interviewed Bureau officials. GAO also relied on its Schedule Assessment Guide.
section_title: What GAO Found
paragraphs: The U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) estimates that it can save around $1.4 billion using administrative records, compared to relying solely on traditional enumeration methods. While the Bureau has made some limited use of administrative records during past decennials, it plans to use them much more extensively in 2020 to achieve these savings.
For example, the Bureau plans to use administrative records to reduce the field work required for its most expensive census operation—nonresponse follow-up—when temporary Bureau employees knock on doors across the country to obtain information from people who did not respond to the census, or who were missed by census mailings. According to the Bureau, using administrative records to (1) identify vacant housing units; (2) identify and enumerate occupied nonresponding housing units when the records meet a certain quality threshold; and (3) predict the best times to visit a household can generate substantial cost savings. The Bureau is also exploring the feasibility of nine additional uses of administrative records that could reduce costs and improve the quality of the census still further. The Bureau already has access to nearly all of the data sources it needs to achieve the desired cost savings. It is also working to gain access to additional databases that could help improve its ability to find historically hard-to-count populations, such as certain minority groups and young children. While the Bureau is to be commended for its efforts to expand its use of administrative records, going forward, it will be important to set deadlines to help ensure it makes timely decisions on these other databases and uses of administrative records. According to Bureau officials, final decisions on the use of administrative records are needed by the end of fiscal year 2017 so the records can be adequately tested in the Bureau's full end-to-end test in 2018. However, these deadlines do not appear in schedule documents.
It will also be important for the Bureau to address key challenges to using administrative records, including (1) ensuring the quality of the records it receives from other government agencies; (2) protecting confidential data; and (3) ensuring congressional and public acceptance of the Bureau's plan to share personal data across government agencies. The Bureau's ongoing research and testing efforts can help with the first challenge. Fully implementing our prior recommendations to strengthen the security of its information systems and to develop a congressional outreach strategy could help address the second and third challenges.
Key assumptions the Bureau used in estimating potential cost savings from administrative records are logical, and the Bureau plans to provide additional support for them. For example, the Bureau's assumption that it could reduce its follow-up workload follows clearly from the Bureau's use of administrative records to remove vacant units from among those housing units needing follow-up because people did not respond to the census, reducing that workload by 11.6 percent. The Bureau released an updated life-cycle cost estimate in October 2015, and GAO anticipates reviewing its reliability after the Bureau makes support for the estimate available.
section_title: What GAO Recommends
paragraphs: In its report issued last month GAO recommended that the Census Director set deadlines for making final decisions about which records to use, and for what purpose. This will help ensure the Bureau's resources focus on those activities that show the most promise for reducing enumeration costs. The Department of Commerce—the Bureau's parent agency—concurred with GAO's findings and recommendation.

section_title: Letter
paragraphs: I am pleased to be here today to discuss the U.S. Census Bureau’s  (Bureau) efforts to control the cost of the 2020 Census by making greater  use of information already provided to federal and state governments as  they administer other programs—what is referred to as “administrative  records.” With a life-cycle cost of about $13 billion, the 2010 Census was  the most expensive U.S. census in history and was 56 percent more  costly than the $8.1 billion 2000 Census (in constant 2010 dollars). Given  budgetary realities, that cost growth is simply unsustainable. Beginning in  1990, we reported that rising costs and difficulties in securing public  participation, among other challenges, required a new approach to taking  the census. Part of the Bureau’s response is its planned use of  administrative records. The Bureau estimates their use could generate as  much as $1.4 billion in cost savings compared to traditional census taking  methods.
Today’s hearing is timely, as our past reviews of prior decennials have  underscored the importance of (1) early and ongoing congressional  oversight to keep census preparations on track, and (2) congressional  acceptance of the Bureau’s overall approach. From the very beginning of  the 2020 life cycle, we have been reporting on the Bureau’s progress in  re-engineering the census, including its planned design and operational  changes, as well as its Information Technology (IT) management, the  latter of which my colleague is addressing in her statement. In my  remarks today, I will describe the opportunities and challenges the  Bureau faces in using administrative records as well as the key  assumptions supporting the Bureau’s related estimated cost savings.
My testimony is based on our review of the Bureau’s plans to use  administrative records in the 2020 Census that we issued last month, and  includes an update to some estimated cost data obtained from the  Bureau. For that work, we reviewed Bureau planning documents and test  plans, our prior reporting on decennial census planning, interviewed  Bureau officials, and relied on our Schedule Assessment Guide. We did  not assess the reliability of the Bureau’s estimated cost-savings  discussed in today’s statement because the Bureau released an update  in early October, which we will be reviewing soon. The work on which this  statement is based was conducted in accordance with generally accepted  government auditing standards. Those standards require that we plan  and perform the audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide  a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit  objectives. We believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable  basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives.
subsections: section_title: Background
paragraphs: We, the Bureau, and others have observed that some of the information  the Bureau collects during the census has already been gathered by  other government agencies in the course of administering their programs.  Accessing that information could provide the Bureau with data to help  conduct the census and, in some cases, complete census forms that  have missing data. Such uses of administrative records have the potential  to reduce the cost of the decennial census because, for example, the  Bureau would need to hire fewer temporary workers and acquire less  office space and equipment to support fieldwork. Moreover, some of the  information collected through administrative records could be more  accurate than information the Bureau collects through traditional door-to- door follow-up methods, such as when the Bureau’s enumerators need to  interview neighbors or other “proxy” respondents because they cannot  reach a household member to collect needed information.
While the Bureau has made some limited use of administrative records  during past decennials, it plans to use them much more extensively in  2020. In its first operational plan for the 2020 Census (released October  6, 2015), the Bureau reported design decisions including the use of  administrative records to identify vacant addresses in advance of follow- up field work and to enumerate nonresponding households when possible  in order to reduce the need for repeated contact attempts during its  nonresponse follow-up operation (NRFU). The Bureau also updated the  life-cycle cost estimate for the 2020 Census to $12.5 billion (in constant  2020 dollars). This is slightly lower than the Bureau’s prior life-cycle cost  estimate of $12.7 billion. We plan to assess the reliability of the new cost  estimate and examine the practices the Bureau used to produce it after  the Bureau makes the model and its supporting documentation available.  As part of the operational plan, the Bureau also released an update of  how much its fundamental redesign of the census would reduce costs in  four major design areas compared to the cost of a 2020 Census  conducted using the methods of the 2010 Census. Table 1 below  compares the cost reduction in those four areas.
The operational plan describes over 100 other preliminary design  decisions related to the Bureau’s efforts to build an address list and  collect census responses. Its release marks a critical turning point in the  decade-long countdown to the next decennial, as the Bureau completes  its early research and testing plan, and pivots toward developing  operations and systems and testing them to refine the census design.
section_title: Administrative Records Can Reduce 2020 Fieldwork, but the Bureau Will Need to Better Define Milestones and Deadlines to Help Manage Risks
paragraphs: Bureau officials have said they hope to use administrative records to  reduce the field work involved in the most expensive census operation— NRFU, when Bureau staff traditionally knock on doors across the country  at homes of people who did not respond to the census, or who were  missed by census mailings. The Bureau has reported that the following  three uses are key to potentially saving up to $1.4 billion compared to  using traditional census methods.
Identify vacant housing units. The Bureau incurs a large part of its  census cost while following up at residences that did not return a census  questionnaire. However, during the 2010 Census, of the 48 million  housing units enumerators visited for follow up, about 14 million were  vacant. One of the largest efficiency gains to the census may come  simply from using administrative records to remove these vacant units  from the follow-up workload. In a test in Arizona earlier this year, this use  of administrative records enabled the Bureau to reduce the NRFU  workload by 11 percent. Since we completed our audit work, the Bureau  announced that it would still send a reminder post card to units it  identified as vacant, which will cost more, but will provide any missed  household one more opportunity to respond to the census.
Identify and enumerate occupied nonresponding housing units.  During the 2015 Census Test, the Bureau demonstrated it could use  administrative records to accurately count some nonresponding occupied  households if the household had administrative records meeting a certain  quality threshold, without attempting any visits. In the test, the Bureau  used this approach to reduce the NRFU workload by about 20 percent.  Since we completed our audit work, the Bureau announced that before  using administrative records to enumerate such households in 2020, it will  still attempt one visit to the household. Attempting a visit will add costs,  but will also provide the household one more opportunity to respond to  the census.
Predict the best times to complete NRFU. One of the challenges the  Bureau faces when knocking on doors is reaching a household when  someone is home. In the 2015 Census Test, the Bureau used  demographic information, such as age, from administrative records  sources in addition to information about how households had responded  to other Bureau surveys in order to help determine the contact strategy  for deciding if and when to interview a household.
The Bureau tested each of these uses during its 2015 Census Test and  plans further testing of them to refine the methods, but the Bureau has  already decided to use them.
subsections: section_title: The Bureau Plans Additional Opportunities for Using Administrative Records in the 2020 Census
paragraphs: In addition to the three uses the Bureau has committed to, the Bureau  has identified nine additional uses of administrative records that may help  further reduce cost or improve the quality of the census (see figure 1).  The Bureau has not separately estimated cost savings for these nine  uses, but has begun researching the feasibility of most of them.
As shown in the figure, these uses would occur during various points  relative to data collection.
Before data collection. The Bureau is already using administrative  records to validate and update the address list. The Bureau is drawing on  address lists and map information from state, local, and tribal  governments, in addition to information obtained from commercial  sources, to update its own address list continuously throughout the  decade, reducing the need for a more costly door-to-door canvassing  during the 2 years prior to the census, as was done for the 2010 Census.  In addition, Bureau officials reported research is about to begin on how to  better use records to identify group quarters, such as dormitories, prisons,  nursing homes, and homeless shelters, and to target outreach, that is,  encourage cooperation of staff at these locations with the census. The  Bureau historically uses special procedures to enumerate at these places,  and administrative records could potentially jump start the time and effort  spent getting ready for them.
During data collection. The Bureau is considering using administrative  records in lieu of some follow-up visits for the purpose of quality control of  field work. In past decennials, the Bureau has called or sent enumerators  to re-interview some respondents. Relying on administrative records  could reduce fieldwork and respondent burden, or enable the Bureau to  better target re-interviews of respondents. The Bureau is also researching  how administrative records can be used to help process responses that  do not have a census ID number on them (this activity is called non-ID  processing). The Bureau may receive such responses from households  that lost or never received mailings or other advance communication with  an ID number from the Bureau. A test in 2015 in the Savannah, Georgia,  media market area demonstrated that a large collation of administrative  records from many sources was effective in helping the Bureau correct or  fill in missing address information. This enabled the Bureau to better  locate where those responses should be counted. The Bureau is also  researching how other records may help it validate responses or the  identities of those who submit responses as part of this processing.
After data collection. When the Bureau still does not have information  on a housing unit after collecting data during field operations, it will  attempt to impute the data—as it has done since 1970. According to  Bureau officials, in 2020 the Bureau will use administrative records to  help improve how it imputes three related types of data: (1) whether or  not a unit is occupied, (2) how many people live in the unit, and (3) the  residents’ demographic characteristics, such as sex, race, and ethnicity.  Finally, the Bureau is considering how administrative records might help it  evaluate census accuracy.
section_title: The Bureau Has Identified Potential Sources for Most of the Administrative Records It Hopes to Use for the 2020 Census
paragraphs: The Bureau has identified and obtained access to nearly all of the  sources that it believes it needs in order to leverage all of the  opportunities it has identified (see figure 2).
In addition to the records already obtained, the Bureau is working to gain  access to the National Directory of New Hires (NDNH), a national  database of wage and employment information used for child support  enforcement, and KidLink, a database from the Social Security  Administration that links parent and child Social Security numbers for  children born after 1998 in U.S. hospitals. Both of these databases would  help the Bureau improve its ability to find historically “hard-to-count”  groups, such as certain minority groups or young children.
Bureau officials stated that they are examining ways to quantify the  potential effect that their access to these additional sources could have  on the 2020 Census. But they point out that there is value in accessing  these records for the Bureau’s other statistical surveys as well, and that  even if they are unable to obtain the additional records in time for the  2020 Census, they would continue pursuing them for these other  purposes, as well as for use in future censuses.
section_title: Setting Deadlines Would Help the Bureau Ensure It Makes Timely Decisions on Administrative Records
paragraphs: While the Bureau is to be commended for its efforts to expand its use of  administrative records to control costs and increase accuracy, we  identified actions the Bureau could take to increase its chances of  success. First, as of August 2015, the Bureau had not set deadlines to  determine which of its identified uses of administrative records it will or  will not implement for the 2020 Census, nor had it set deadlines for  determining exactly which records from which sources it will tap in  support of each use it implements. Moreover, the Bureau had no  deadlines against which to measure progress for obtaining access to  additional sources or scheduled milestones for when key steps may need  to be taken in order to integrate them within 2020 preparations. For  example, the Bureau will need time to review files in order to ensure their  fitness for use before the Bureau can integrate them into the census  design. Earlier in October the Bureau announced time frames for several  decisions related to uses of administrative records and explained that the  decisions are not yet included in its integrated schedule of activities.  According to our scheduling guide, assurance of program success can be  increased when management relies on credible schedules containing the  complete scope of activities necessary to achieve established program  objectives.
Bureau officials have stated that final decisions on the use of  administrative records are needed by the end of fiscal year 2017 in order  to be included in the Bureau’s 2018 full end-to-end test. However, these  deadlines do not appear in schedule documents. We recommended that  the Census Director ensure that resources focus on activities with  promise to reduce cost by documenting milestones related to deciding  which records to use, particularly for purposes not yet demonstrated as  feasible or involving records it does not already have access to, such as  NDNH and KidLink. The Department of Commerce—the Bureau’s parent  agency—concurred with our recommendation. Deadlines for deciding on  all potential uses—either committing to move forward with them or  abandoning them as possibilities for 2020—and for deciding how all other  records will be used would help to ensure the Bureau is using its  resources cost-effectively.
section_title: The Bureau Is Taking Steps to Address Challenges to Using Administrative Records for the 2020 Census; Implementing Our Previous Recommendations Could Help
paragraphs: The Bureau is taking steps to address challenges it faces in using  administrative records to control costs and improve the quality of the 2020  Census.
One challenge facing the Bureau is ensuring the quality of the records it  receives from other agencies and levels of government. To meet this  challenge, the Bureau has processes in place and is conducting research  and testing to ensure quality of records. For example, to ensure accuracy,  the Bureau routinely screens address and map files provided by state,  local, and tribal governments to determine if they satisfy preset minimum  quality standards for completeness of address information. This helps to  improve the master list of addresses. The Bureau plans comprehensive  testing of all records during an end-to-end test of its 2020 Census design  (to be conducted in 2018). The Bureau plans additional testing of  administrative records for the 2016 Census Test in the Los Angeles and  Houston metro areas, a large test of address canvassing for 2016, and an  additional site test in 2017 at an undetermined location.
The Bureau reported it will review imputation models it used during prior  censuses to determine how it can integrate information from  administrative records into them in fiscal year 2016. Tests will be included  in the 2016 Census Test.
A second challenge involves protecting confidential data. We have  previously reported that until the Bureau implements a complete and  comprehensive security program, it will have limited assurance that its  information and systems are being adequately protected against  unauthorized access, use, disclosure, modification, disruption, or loss. In  January 2013, we made over 100 recommendations aimed at addressing  weaknesses in that program. The Bureau agreed and Bureau officials  state that the Bureau has taken action on all 115 of our recommendations  to improve its security program. In assessing the Bureau’s reported  actions, we have reviewed documentation pertaining to 97 of the  recommendations—66 of which we have confirmed have been addressed  and 31 that require additional actions and/or documentation from the  Bureau. We are currently analyzing the extent to which the remaining 18  recommendations have been addressed by the Bureau and expect to  complete that review by the end of 2015. My colleague is further  addressing the security challenge in her statement. Bureau officials  pointed out that the Bureau is well positioned to prevent disclosure of  administrative records, as it has long-standing experience in collecting  data from other agencies and reporting on them. Furthermore, the Bureau  and the agency providing the data agree to data safeguards during  negotiations for access.
A third challenge concerns public acceptance and attitudes about sharing  of personal data across government agencies for the purposes of the  census. We have previously reported on the need within the federal  statistical system for broader public discussion on balancing trade-offs  among competing values, such as quality, cost, timeliness, privacy, and  confidentiality. The public has related concerns involving trust in the  government and perceptions about the burden on respondents as well the  social benefits of agencies sharing data. We recommended in 2012 that  the Bureau develop and implement an effective congressional outreach  strategy, particularly on new design elements the Bureau is researching  and considering as well the cost-quality trade-offs of potential design  decisions. The Bureau agreed with the recommendation and, in  November 2014, it provided us with a congressional engagement plan.  The four-page plan brings together in one place a summary of the  Bureau’s ongoing activity in this area, yet, by itself, lacks goals or  strategies for attaining them, or accountability for who will work to  implement them or when. We will continue monitoring the Bureau’s efforts  to address this recommendation, particularly as these efforts may depend  on scheduling of activities the Bureau may yet set related to making final  decisions about administrative records.
section_title: Key Assumptions for Estimated Cost Savings from Administrative Records Are Logical; the Bureau Will Continue to Validate the Assumptions
paragraphs: As part of our recently released review, we determined that key  assumptions in the Bureau’s administrative records cost area made  sense. Table 2 shows the results of our analysis.
While we were reviewing these cost assumptions, the Bureau did not  always have documentation readily available, and Bureau reporting on  one of the assumptions needed to be corrected. We were able to identify  the needed support, and Bureau staff said that they will change the  methodology for future reporting on the cost estimate to involve more  factors and variables, such as the ratio of field workers to supervisors  they would need in 2020 in addition to the NRFU workload assumption.  This change will help demonstrate the reliability of the estimates as well  as ensure effective communication with others about them.
Since we released our report, the Bureau provided an updated estimate  of the total 2020 Census life-cycle cost of $12.5 billion, as well as updated  estimates of how much less in four major cost areas its 2020 plan would  cost compared to a cost of the a 2020 Census conducted using the 2010  Census approaches and methods. We expect soon to begin reviewing the  Bureau’s new cost model and its assumption. Bureau officials have told  us that although the model has been updated, the key assumptions within  the administrative records cost area are largely the same.
Bureau officials told us that the revised life-cycle cost estimate the Bureau  released on October 6, 2015 was developed with leading practices from  our cost estimating and assessment guide. After the Bureau releases the  underlying model, methodology, and supporting documents for the  estimate, we anticipate reviewing them to assess their reliability.  Continued oversight efforts, such as this hearing, will be helpful to ensure  that the Bureau’s efforts remain on track and focused on those most  promising to result in a cost-effective 2020 Census.
section_title: GAO Contacts and Staff Acknowledgments
paragraphs: If you have any questions on matters discussed in this statement, please  contact Robert Goldenkoff at (202) 512-2757 or by e-mail at  goldenkoffr@gao.gov. Other key contributors to this testimony include Ty  Mitchell, Assistant Director; Brett Caloia; Robert Gebhart; Richard Hung;  Andrea Levine; Donna Miller; Tamara Stenzel; and Timothy Wexler.
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