Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites: Acquisition Has Increased Costs, Reduced Capabilities, and Delayed Schedules
Published: 2009-04-23T00:00:00

Fast Facts:

Highlights:
section_title: Why GAO Did This Study
paragraphs: The Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with the aid of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), plans to procure the next generation of geostationary operational environmental satellites, called the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R). GOES-R is to replace the current series of satellites, which will likely begin to reach the end of their useful lives in 2014. This series is considered critical to the United States' ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting through the year 2028. GAO was asked to summarize its report being released today that (1) determines the status of the GOES-R program, (2) evaluates whether plans for the acquisition address problems experienced on similar programs, and (3) determines whether NOAA's plan will be adequate to support current data requirements.
section_title: What GAO Found
paragraphs: NOAA has made progress on the GOES-R acquisition, but the program's cost, schedule, and scope have changed. The GOES-R program has awarded development contracts for key instruments and plans to award contracts for the spacecraft and ground segments by mid-2009. However, after reconciling program and independent cost estimates, the program established a new cost estimate of $7.67 billion--a $670 million increase from the prior $7 billion estimate. The program also reduced the number of products the satellites will produce from 81 to 34 and slowed the delivery of these products in order to reduce costs. More recently, the program also delayed key milestones, including the launch of the first satellite, which will likely be delayed from December 2014 until at least May 2015. This delay in the GOES-R launch runs counter to NOAA's policy of having a backup satellite in orbit at all times and could lead to gaps in satellite coverage if GOES-O or P fail prematurely. GOES-R has taken steps to address lessons from other satellite programs, but important actions remain to be completed. These actions include ensuring sufficient technical readiness of the system's components prior to key decisions. However, technical challenges remain on the ground segment and instruments, the program did not perform a comprehensive review after rebaselining a critical instrument, and it has not documented all of the reasons for cost overruns. Until these issues are addressed, NOAA faces an increased risk that the GOES-R program will repeat the same mistakes that have plagued other satellite programs. While NOAA and the science community expressed a continuing need for advanced products that were removed from the program, the agency has not developed plans or a timeline for meeting these requirements. Until a decision is made on whether and how to proceed in providing the advanced products, key system users, such as weather forecasters, will not be able to meet their goals for improving the accuracy of severe weather warnings.

section_title: Letter
paragraphs: Thank you for the opportunity to participate in today’s hearing on  our nation’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R  (GOES-R) series. The GOES-R series is to replace the current series  of satellites, which will likely begin to reach the end of their useful  lives in approximately 2014. This new series is expected to mark the  first major technological advance in GOES instrumentation since  1994. It is also considered critical to the United States’ ability to  maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting  through the year 2028. As requested, this statement summarizes our  report being released today that (1) determines the status of the  program, (2) evaluates whether plans for the GOES-R acquisition  address problems experienced on similar programs, and (3)  determines whether National Oceanic and Atmospheric  Administration’s (NOAA) plan to address the capabilities that were  planned for the satellites, but then removed, will be adequate to  support current data requirements.
In preparing this testimony, we relied on our work supporting the  accompanying report. That report contains a detailed overview of  our scope and methodology. In addition, we updated factual  information on satellite launch schedules as warranted. All of our  work for this report was performed in accordance with generally  accepted government auditing standards. Those standards require  that we plan and perform the audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate  evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our findings and  conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe that the  evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings and  conclusions based on our audit objectives.
subsections: section_title: Background
paragraphs: NOAA operates GOES as a two-satellite system that is primarily  focused on the United States. These satellites are uniquely  positioned to provide timely environmental data about the earth’s  atmosphere, its surface, cloud cover, and the space environment to  meteorologists and their audiences. They also observe the  development of hazardous weather, such as hurricanes and severe  thunderstorms, and track their movement and intensity to reduce or  avoid major losses of property and life. Furthermore, the satellites’  ability to provide broad, continuously updated coverage of  atmospheric conditions over land and oceans is important to  NOAA’s weather forecasting operations.
To provide continuous satellite coverage, NOAA acquires several  satellites at a time as part of a series and launches new satellites  every few years (see table 1). NOAA’s policy is to have two  operational satellites and one backup satellite in orbit at all times.
Four GOES satellites—GOES-10, GOES-11, GOES-12, and GOES- 13—are currently in orbit. Both GOES-11 and GOES-12 are  operational satellites, with GOES-12 covering the east and GOES-11  the west. GOES-13 is currently in an on-orbit storage mode. It is a  backup for the other two satellites should they experience any  degradation in service. GOES-10 is at the end of its service life, but it  is being used to provide limited coverage of South America. The  others in the series, GOES-O and GOES-P, are planned for launch  over the next 2 years. NOAA is also planning the next generation of  satellites, known as the GOES-R series, which are planned for  launch beginning in 2015.
subsections: section_title: GOES-R Program—An Overview
paragraphs: NOAA plans for the GOES-R program to improve on the technology  of prior series, in terms of both system and instrument  improvements. The system improvements are expected to fulfill  more demanding user requirements by updating the satellite data  more often and providing satellite products to users more quickly.  The instrument improvements are expected to significantly increase  the clarity and precision of the observed environmental data. NOAA  originally planned to acquire six different types of instruments.
In September 2006, however, NOAA decided to reduce the scope  and technical complexity of the GOES-R program because of  expectations that total costs, which were originally estimated to be  $6.2 billion, could reach $11.4 billion. Specifically, NOAA reduced  the minimum number of satellites from four to two, cancelled plans  for developing a critical instrument—the Hyperspectral  Environmental Suite (which reduced the number of planned satellite  products from 81 to 68), and divided the Solar Imaging Suite into  two separate acquisitions.  The agency estimated that the revised  program would cost $7 billion. In addition to the reductions in  scope, NOAA also delayed the launch of the first satellite from  September 2012 to December 2014.
NOAA is solely responsible for GOES-R program funding and overall  mission success. However, since it relies on the National  Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) acquisition  experience and technical expertise to help ensure the success of its  programs, NOAA implemented an integrated program management  structure with NASA for the GOES-R program. Within the program  office, there are two project offices that manage key components of  the GOES-R system—the flight and ground segment project offices.   The flight project office, managed by NASA, is responsible for  awarding and managing the spacecraft segment contract, delivering  flight-ready instruments to the spacecraft segment contractor for  integration onto the satellites, and overseeing the systems  engineering and integration. The ground segment project office,  managed by NOAA, oversees the ground contract, satellite data  product development and distribution, and on-orbit operations of  the satellites.
section_title: GOES-R Is in Development, but Costs Have Increased, Envisioned Functionality Has Been Reduced, and Schedules Have Been Delayed
paragraphs: NOAA and NASA have made progress on the GOES-R program. In  January 2008, NOAA approved the program’s move from the  preliminary design and definition phase to the development phase of  the acquisition life cycle. This approval also gave the program the  authority to issue the requests for proposals for the spacecraft and  ground segment projects—which it did in January 2008 and May  2008, respectively. The program office plans to award the prime  contract for the spacecraft segment in May 2009 and the contract for  the ground segment in June 2009. In addition, between September  2004 and December 2007, the GOES-R program awarded contracts  for the development of five key instruments. These instruments are  currently in varying stages of development. Figure 1 depicts the  schedule for both the program and key instruments.
subsections: section_title: GOES-R Cost Estimate Has Increased, Envisioned Functionality Has Been Reduced, and Key Milestones Have Slipped
paragraphs: NOAA has made several important decisions about the cost, scope,  and schedule of the GOES-R program. After reconciling the program  office’s cost estimate with an independent cost estimate, the agency  established a new program cost estimate of $7.67 billion, an increase  of $670 million from the previous estimate. Agency officials plan to  revisit this cost estimate after the spacecraft and ground segment  contracts are awarded but stated that it was developed with a  relatively high level of confidence and that they believe that any  adjustments would be well within the $7.67 billion program budget.
To mitigate the risk that costs would rise, program officials decided  to remove selected program requirements from the baseline  program and treat them as options that could be exercised if funds  allow. These requirements include the number of products to be  distributed, the time to deliver the remaining products (product  latency), and how often these products are updated with new  satellite data (refresh rate). Specifically, program officials  eliminated the requirement to develop and distribute 34 of the 68  envisioned products, including aircraft icing threat, turbulence, and  visibility. Program officials explained that these products are not  currently being produced by legacy GOES satellites; they are new  products that could be produced from the advanced GOES-R  instruments. In addition, the program slowed planned product  latency on the remaining products by as much as 10 minutes for  hurricane intensity and 6 minutes for volcanic ash detection and  height. It also reduced the refresh rates on these products by as  much as 55 minutes for sea surface temperatures, cloud top  observations, and vertical moisture profiles in the atmosphere.  Program officials included the restoration of the products, latency,  and refresh rates as options in the ground segment contract—items  that could be acquired at a later time.
NOAA also delayed GOES-R program milestones including the dates  for issuing the requests for proposals by up to 6 months and  awarding the contracts for the spacecraft and ground segments by  12 and 10 months, respectively. The dates when the satellites would  be available for launch have also slipped by 4 months, with the first  satellite launch now scheduled for April 2015. Program officials  attributed these delays to providing more stringent oversight before  releasing the requests for proposals, additional time needed to  evaluate the contract proposals, and funding reductions in fiscal  year 2008.
Recent events have raised doubts about the feasibility of the  GOES-R launch date. Specifically, after the spacecraft segment  contract was awarded and then protested in December 2008, NASA  decided to re-evaluate the proposals. NASA now plans to re-award  the contract in May 2009. Because NASA has agreed to a 72-month  development cycle for the spacecraft segment (from contract award  date to launch readiness), the launch date of GOES-R will likely be  delayed until at least May 2015.
Any delays in the launch of the first GOES-R satellite run counter to  NOAA’s policy of having a backup satellite in orbit at all times and  could lead to gaps in satellite coverage. This policy proved useful in  December 2008, when NOAA lost communication with GOES-12, but  was able to use GOES-13 as an operational satellite until  communication was restored. However, beginning in November  2014, NOAA expects to have two operational satellites in orbit (O  and P), but it will not have a backup satellite in place until GOES-R  is launched. If NOAA experiences a problem with either of its  operational satellites before GOES-R is in orbit, it will need to rely  on older satellites that are beyond their expected operational lives  and therefore may not be fully functional.
section_title: The GOES-R Program Office Has Taken Steps to Address Lessons Learned from Other Satellite Programs, but Important Actions Remain
paragraphs: GOES-R has taken steps to address lessons from other satellite  programs. These actions include ensuring sufficient technical  readiness of the spacecraft and ground segments prior to awarding  the contracts. However, key risks remain and important actions  remain to be completed in selected areas. Specifically, key  technology risks remain—affecting both the ground segment and  the instruments. While the hardware that is to be used for the  ground segment is mature, key components have not previously  been integrated. In addition, the program office has identified the  Advanced Baseline Imager and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper  instruments as having a high level of risk associated with cost due in  part to the technical challenges posed by each instrument. Program  officials reported that they have sufficient management reserves to  address these risks.
To manage such risks, NOAA uses earned value management, a  proven means for measuring progress against cost and schedule  commitments and thereby identifying potential cost overruns and  schedule delays early, when the impact can be minimized. Two key  aspects of this process are (1) conducting comprehensive integrated  baseline reviews to obtain agreement from stakeholders on the  value of planned work and validate the baseline against which  variances are calculated and (2) using monthly variance reports to  provide information on the current contract status, the reasons for  any deviations from cost or schedule plans, and any actions taken to  address these deviations.
To its credit, the GOES-R program office is using earned value  management to oversee the key instrument contracts and plans to  use it on the spacecraft and ground segment contracts. To date, the  program office has performed integrated baseline reviews on the  instruments and obtains and reviews variance reports for each of  the instruments. However, the program’s integrated baseline review  for the Advanced Baseline Imager did not include a review of  schedule milestones, the adequacy of how tasks are measured, and  the contractor’s management processes. Further, the variance  reports for two instruments—the Advanced Baseline Imager and the  Geostationary Lightning Mapper—do not describe all of the  significant variances. Program officials explained that they meet  with the contractor on a monthly basis to discuss all of the  variances, but they were unable to provide documentation of these  discussions or the reasons for, impact of, or mitigation plans for the  variances. As a result of these shortfalls, the program office has less  assurance that key instruments will be delivered on time and within  budget, and it is more difficult for program managers to identify  risks and take corrective actions.
section_title: NOAA Has Not Developed Plans for Meeting Requirements for Advanced Products
paragraphs: Before it was cancelled in September 2006, the Hyperspectral  Environmental Suite was originally planned as part of the GOES-R  satellite series to meet requirements for products that are currently  produced by GOES satellites as well as new technically-advanced  products not currently produced by GOES satellites. NOAA still  considers these requirements to be valid, and NOAA and the science  community still have a need for the advanced products.
NOAA had planned to use the new sounding products to improve its  performance goals, such as helping to increase the lead times  associated with severe thunderstorm warnings from an average of  18 minutes in 2000 to as much as 2 hours by 2025, and helping to  increase the lead times associated with tornado warnings from an  average of 13 minutes in 2007 to as much as 1 hour by 2025. In  addition, NOAA had planned to use the new coastal waters imaging  products to provide more accurate and quantitative understanding  of areas for which NOAA has management responsibilities. In  particular, the coastal water imaging products could have been used  to predict and monitor the growth, spread, severity and duration of  harmful algal blooms. Recent studies suggest that harmful algal  blooms are occurring more frequently because of climate change.
NOAA, NASA, and the Department of Defense assessed alternatives  for obtaining advanced sounding and coastal water imaging  products from a geostationary orbit. The results of the analysis  recommended that NOAA work with NASA to develop a  demonstration sounder to fly on an as-yet undetermined satellite  and to evaluate other options for coastal waters imaging. NOAA  plans to assess the technical feasibility of various options and to  have the National Research Council make recommendations on  long-term options for coastal water imaging.
However, NOAA has not defined plans or a timeline for addressing  the requirements for advanced products. Further, agency officials  were unable to estimate when they would establish plans to fulfill  the requirements. Until a decision is made on whether and how to  provide the advanced products, key system users will not be able to  meet their goals for improving the lead times or accuracy of severe  weather warnings, and climate research organizations will not  obtain the data they need to enhance the science of climate, coastal,  environmental, and oceanic observations.
section_title: Implementation of Recommendations Could Improve Management and Oversight
paragraphs: In our report, we are making three recommendations that, if  implemented, could improve the management and oversight of the  GOES-R acquisition. These are: ensuring that any rebaselining of a  key instrument includes an assessment of milestones, adequacy of  resources, task and technical planning, and management processes;  ensuring that reasons for cost and schedule variances are fully  disclosed and documented; and, if feasible, developing a plan and  timeline for restoring the advanced capabilities removed from the  program.
In written comments on a draft of this report, the Department of  Commerce agreed with our findings and recommendations and  outlined steps it is taking to implement them. The department also  provided technical comments on the report, which we incorporated  as appropriate.
In summary, NOAA has made repeated and continuing efforts to  learn from problems experienced on other satellite programs. The  GOES-R satellite series is now in development, but program costs  have increased, the scope of the program has been reduced, and  schedules have been delayed. Further, unless the program exercises  contract options, key benefits in terms of new products and faster  data updates will not be realized. Of particular concern are the three  years of launch delays since 2006. In addition, recent events make it  likely that the launch of GOES-R will continue to slip, which  increases the risk of having gaps in satellite coverage. Until NOAA  and NASA act to address this risk, the United States’ ability to  maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting is in  jeopardy. In addition, NOAA has not yet developed a plan or a  timeline for recovering the advanced capabilities that were  removed. Until such decisions and plans are made, the geostationary  user community may not be able to make significant improvements  in their severe weather forecasts, or their ability to monitor our  coastal environments.
Mr. Chairman and members of the Subcommittee, this concludes  our statement. We would be pleased to respond to any questions  that you or other members of the Subcommittee may have at this  time.
section_title: Contact and Staff Acknowledgments
paragraphs: If you have any questions on matters discussed in this testimony,  please contact David A. Powner at (202) 512-9286 or by e-mail at  pownerd@gao.gov. Other key contributors to this testimony include  Colleen M. Phillips, Assistant Director; Carol Cha; William Carrigg;  Neil Doherty; Franklin Jackson; Kaelin Kuhn; Lee McCracken; and  Eric Winter.
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