Military Personnel: A Strategic Approach Is Needed to Address Long-term Guard and Reserve Force Availability
Published: 2005-02-02T00:00:00

Fast Facts:

Highlights:
section_title: Why GAO Did This Study
paragraphs: The Department of Defense (DOD) has six reserve components: the Army Reserve, the Army National Guard, the Air Force Reserve, the Air National Guard, the Naval Reserve, and the Marine Corps Reserve. DOD's use of Reserve and National Guard forces increased dramatically following the events of September 11, 2001, and on January 19, 2005, more than 192,000 National Guard and Reserve component members were mobilized. About 85 percent of these personnel were members of the Army National Guard or the Army Reserve. Furthermore, the availability of reserve component forces will continue to play an important role in the success of DOD's future missions, and DOD has projected that over the next 3 to 5 years, it will continuously have more than 100,000 reserve component members mobilized. Since September, 2001, GAO has issued a number of reports that have dealt with issues related to the increased use of Reserve and National Guard forces. For this hearing, GAO was asked to provide the results of its work on the extent to which DOD has the strategic framework and policies necessary to maximize reserve component force availability for a long-term Global War on Terrorism.
section_title: What GAO Found
paragraphs: DOD does not have a strategic framework with human capital goals concerning the availability of its reserve component forces. The manner in which DOD implements its mobilization authorities affects the number of reserve component members available. The partial mobilization authority limits involuntary mobilizations to not more than 1 million reserve component members at any one time, for not more than 24 consecutive months, during a time of national emergency. Under DOD's current implementation of the authority, members can be involuntarily mobilized more than once, but involuntary mobilizations are limited to a cumulative total of 24 months. Given this implementation, DOD could eventually run out of forces. During GAO's 2004 review, DOD was facing shortages of some reserve component personnel, and officials considered changing their implementation of the partial mobilization authority to expand the pool of available personnel. Under the proposed implementation, DOD could have mobilized personnel for less than 24 consecutive months, sent them home for a period, and remobilized them, repeating this cycle indefinitely and providing an essentially unlimited flow of forces. After GAO's review was done, DOD said it would retain its current implementation that limits mobilizations to a cumulative total of 24 months. However, DOD did not clarify how it planned to meet its longer-term requirements for the Global War on Terrorism as additional forces reach the 24-month mobilization point. By June 2004, 30,000 reserve component members had already been mobilized for 24 months. DOD's policies also affect the availability of reserve component members. Many of the policies that affect reserve component availability were focused on the services' short-term requirements or the needs of individual service members rather than on long-term requirements and predictability. For example, DOD implemented stop-loss policies, which are short-term measures that increase force availability by retaining active or reserve component members on active duty beyond the end of their obligated service. Because DOD's various policies were not developed within the context of an overall strategic framework, they underwent numerous changes as DOD strove to meet current requirements, and they did not work together to meet the department's long-term Global War on Terrorism requirements. These policy changes created uncertainties for reserve component members concerning the likelihood of their mobilization, the length of service commitments and overseas rotations, and the types of missions they will have to perform. The uncertainties may affect future retention and recruiting efforts, and indications show that some parts of the force may already be stressed.

section_title: Letter
paragraphs: Thank you for the opportunity to provide this statement for your hearing  on the adequacy of Army forces.
The Department of Defense (DOD) cannot meet its global commitments  without sizable participation from among its current 1.2 million National  Guard and Reserve members. Since September 11, 2001, more than  363,000 of these reserve component members have been involuntarily  called to active duty. On January 19, 2005, more than 192,000 National  Guard and Reserve component members remained mobilized, about  85 percent of them from the Army National Guard or the Army Reserve.
Reserve component members have been deployed around the world; some  help to maintain peace and security at home, while others serve on the  front lines in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Balkans. Since the pace of reserve  operations is expected to remain high due to the Global War on Terrorism  stretching indefinitely into the future, it is critical that the services  maximize the availability of their reserve component forces. Recruiting  and retention success are important factors in maintaining the availability  of the force, and DOD has recognized that predictability is one of the keys  to the retention of a quality force.
Since September 2001, GAO has issued a number of reports that have dealt  with issues related to the increased use of Reserve and National Guard  forces. This testimony is drawn largely from our September 2004 report  dealing with mobilization and demobilization issues, and it also draws on  our August 2003 report on mobilization issues, and our November 2004  report on the National Guard. For this hearing, GAO was asked to provide  the results of its work on the extent to which DOD has the strategic  framework and policies necessary to maximize reserve component force  availability for a long-term Global War on Terrorism.
In addressing our objective for this body of work, we reviewed policies  from the services and the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) in light  of the various mobilization authorities that are available to DOD and  planned deployment rotations. We also visited sites where the services  conduct mobilization and demobilization processing and interviewed  responsible officials at those sites. Although we visited sites for all the  services, we focused our review primarily on the Army’s mobilization and  demobilization processes, since more personnel from the Army have been  and are expected to be mobilized than from all the other services  combined. We analyzed personnel data obtained during the site visits and  held meetings with military and civilian officials from OSD, the Joint  Chiefs of Staff, the service headquarters, reserve component headquarters,  and support agencies. Based on our review of the databases we used, we  determined that the DOD-provided data were reliable for the purposes of  our work. We conducted our reviews in accordance with generally  accepted government auditing standards. Let me now turn to the specific  issues associated with reserve component force availability.
subsections: section_title: Background
paragraphs: Mobilization is the process of assembling and organizing personnel and  equipment, activating or federalizing units and members of the National  Guard and Reserves for active duty, and bringing the armed forces to a  state of readiness for war or other national emergency. It is a complex  undertaking that requires constant and precise coordination between a  number of commands and officials. Mobilization usually begins when the  President invokes a mobilization authority and ends with the voluntary or  involuntary mobilization of an individual Reserve or National Guard  member. Demobilization is the process necessary to release from active  duty units and members of the National Guard and Reserve components  who were ordered to active duty under various legislative authorities.  Mobilization and demobilization times can vary from a matter of hours to  months, depending on a number of factors. For example, many air reserve  component units are required to be available to mobilize within 72 hours,  while Army National Guard brigades may require months of training as  part of their mobilizations. Reserve component members’ usage of accrued  leave can greatly affect demobilization times. Actual demobilization  processing typically takes a matter of days once the member arrives back  in the United States. However, since members earn 30 days of leave each  year, they could have up to 60 days of leave available to them at the end of  a 2-year mobilization.
subsections: section_title: Reserve Components and Categories
paragraphs: DOD has six reserve components: the Army Reserve, the Army National  Guard, the Air Force Reserve, the Air National Guard, the Naval Reserve,  and the Marine Corps Reserve. Reserve forces can be divided into three  major categories: the Ready Reserve, the Standby Reserve, and the  Retired Reserve. The Total Reserve had approximately 1.2 million National  Guard and Reserve members at the end of fiscal year 2004. However, only  the 1.1 million members of the Ready Reserve were subject to involuntary  mobilization under the partial mobilization declared by President Bush on  September 14, 2001. Within the Ready Reserve, there are three  subcategories: the Selected Reserve, the Individual Ready Reserve (IRR),  and the Inactive National Guard. Members of all three subcategories are  subject to mobilization under a partial mobilization.
At the end of fiscal year 2004, DOD had 859,406 Selected Reserve  members. The Selected Reserve’s members included individual  mobilization augmentees—individuals who train regularly, for pay, with  active component units—as well as members who participate in regular  training as members of National Guard or Reserve units.
At the end of fiscal year 2004, DOD had 284,201IRR members. During a  partial mobilization, these individuals—who were previously trained  during periods of active duty service—can be mobilized to fill  requirements. Each year, the services transfer thousands of personnel who  have completed the active duty or Selected Reserve portions of their  military contracts, but who have not reached the end of their military  service obligations, to the IRR. However, IRR members do not participate  in any regularly scheduled training, and they are not paid for their  membership in the IRR.
At the end of fiscal year 2004, the Inactive National Guard had 1,428 Army  National Guard members. This subcategory contains individuals who are  temporarily unable to participate in regular training but who wish to  remain attached to their National Guard unit.
section_title: Mobilization Authorities
paragraphs: Most reservists who were called to active duty for other than normal  training after September 11, 2001, were mobilized under one of the  three legislative authorities listed in table 1.
On September 14, 2001, President Bush declared that a national emergency  existed as a result of the attacks on the World Trade Center in New York  City, New York, and the Pentagon in Washington, D.C., and he invoked  10 U.S.C. § 12302, which is commonly referred to as the “partial  mobilization authority.” On September 20, 2001, DOD issued mobilization  guidance that, among a host of other things, directed the services as a  matter of policy to specify in initial orders to Ready Reserve members that  the period of active duty service under 10 U.S.C. § 12302 would not exceed  12 months. However, the guidance allowed the service secretaries to  extend orders for an additional 12 months or to remobilize reserve  component members under the partial mobilization authority as long as an  individual member’s cumulative service did not exceed 24 months under  10 U.S.C. § 12302. The guidance further specified that “No member of the  Ready Reserve called to involuntary active duty under 10 U.S.C. 12302 in  support of the effective conduct of operations in response to the World  Trade Center and Pentagon attacks, shall serve on active duty in excess of  24 months under that authority, including travel time to return the member  to the residence from which he or she left when called to active duty and  use of accrued leave.” The guidance also allowed the services to retain  members on active duty after they had served 24 or fewer months under  10 U.S.C. § 12302 with the member’s consent if additional orders were  authorized under 10 U.S.C. § 12301(d).
section_title: Mobilization and Demobilization Roles and Responsibilities
paragraphs: Combatant commanders are principally responsible for the preparation  and implementation of operation plans that specify the necessary level of  mobilization of reserve component forces. The military services are the  primary executors of mobilization. At the direction of the Secretary of  Defense, the services prepare detailed mobilization plans to support the  operation plans and provide forces and logistical support to the combatant  commanders.
The Assistant Secretary of Defense for Reserve Affairs, who reports to the  Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness, is to provide  policy, programs, and guidance for the mobilization and demobilization of  the reserve components. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, after  coordination with the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Reserve Affairs,  the secretaries of the military departments, and the commanders of the  Unified Combatant Commands, is to advise the Secretary of Defense on  the need to augment the active forces with members of the reserve  components. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff also has  responsibility for recommending the period of service for units and  members of the reserve components ordered to active duty. The service  secretaries are to prepare plans for mobilization and demobilization and to  periodically review and test the plans to ensure the services’ capabilities to  mobilize reserve forces and to assimilate them effectively into the active  forces.
section_title: Service Usage of the Reserve Component since September 11, 2001
paragraphs: Figure 1 shows reserve component usage on a per capita basis since  fiscal year 1989 and demonstrates the dramatic increase in usage that  occurred after September 11, 2001. It shows that the ongoing usage— which includes support for operations Noble Eagle, Enduring Freedom,  and Iraqi Freedom—exceeds the usage rates during the 1991 Persian Gulf  War in both length and magnitude.
While reserve component usage increased significantly after  September 11, 2001, an equally important shift occurred at the end of 2002.  Following the events of September 11, 2001, the Air Force initially used  the partial mobilization authority more than the other services. However,  service usage shifted in 2002, and by the end of that year, the Army had  more reserve component members mobilized than all the other services  combined. Since that time, usage of the Army’s reserve component  members has continued to dominate DOD’s figures. On January 19, 2005,  more than 192,000 National Guard and Reserve members were mobilized.  About 85 percent of these mobilized personnel were members of the Army  National Guard or Army Reserve.
Under the current partial mobilization authority, DOD increased not only  the numbers of reserve component members that it mobilized, but also the  length of the members’ mobilizations. The average mobilization for  Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm in 1990-1991 was 156 days.  However, on March 31, 2004, the average mobilization for the three  ongoing operations had increased to 342 days, and that figure was  expected to continue to rise.
section_title: Availability of Reserve Components Is Greatly Influenced by Mobilization Authorities and Personnel Policies
paragraphs: DOD does not have the strategic framework and associated policies  necessary to maximize reserve component force availability for a  long-term Global War on Terrorism. The availability of reserve component  forces to meet future requirements is greatly influenced by DOD’s  implementation of the partial mobilization authority and by the  department’s personnel policies. Furthermore, many of DOD’s policies  that affect mobilized reserve component personnel were implemented in a  piecemeal manner, and were focused on the short-term needs of the  services and reserve component members rather than on long-term  requirements and predictability. The availability of reserve component  forces will continue to play an important role in the success of DOD’s  missions because requirements that increased significantly after  September 11, 2001, are expected to remain high for the foreseeable  future. As a result, there are early indicators that DOD may have trouble  meeting predictable troop deployment and recruiting goals for some  reserve components and occupational specialties.
subsections: section_title: DOD’s Recent Use of Mobilization Authorities
paragraphs: On September 14, 2002, DOD broke with its previous pattern of addressing  mobilization requirements with a presidential reserve call-up before  moving to a partial mobilization. By 2004 DOD was facing reserve  component personnel shortages and considered a change in its  implementation of the partial mobilization authority. The manner in which  DOD implements the mobilization authorities currently available can  result in either an essentially unlimited supply of forces or running out of  forces available for deployment, at least in the short term.
DOD has used two mobilization authorities to gain involuntary access to  its reserve component forces since 1990. In 1990, the President invoked  Title 10 U.S.C. Section 673b, allowing DOD to mobilize Selected Reserve  members for Operation Desert Shield. The provision was then commonly  referred to as the Presidential Selected Reserve Call-up authority and is  now called the Presidential Reserve Call-up authority. This authority  limits involuntary mobilizations to not more than 200,000 reserve  component members at any one time, for not more than 270 days, for any  operational mission. On January 18, 1991, the President invoked Title 10  U.S.C. Section 673, commonly referred to as the “partial mobilization  authority,” thus providing DOD with additional authority to respond to the  continued threat posed by Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. The partial  mobilization authority limits involuntary mobilizations to not more than  1 million reserve component members at any one time, for not more than  24 consecutive months, during a time of national emergency. During the  years between Operation Desert Shield and September 11, 2001, DOD  invoked a number of separate mission-specific Presidential Reserve Call- up authorities for operations in Bosnia, Kosovo, Southwest Asia, and Haiti,  and the department did not seek a partial mobilization authority for any of  these operations.
After the events of September 11, 2001, the President immediately invoked  the partial mobilization authority without a prior Presidential Reserve Call- up. Since the partial mobilization for the Global War on Terrorism went  into effect in 2001, DOD has used both the partial mobilization authority  and the Presidential Reserve Call-up authorities to involuntarily mobilize  reserve component members for operations in the Balkans.
The manner in which DOD implements the partial mobilization authority  affects the number of reserve component forces available for deployment.  When DOD issued its initial guidance concerning the partial mobilization  authority in 2001, it limited mobilization orders to 12 months but allowed  the service secretaries to extend the orders for an additional 12 months or  remobilize reserve component members, as long as an individual  member’s cumulative service under the partial mobilization authority did  not exceed 24 months. Under this cumulative implementation approach, it  is possible for DOD to run out of forces during an extended conflict, such  as a long-term Global War on Terrorism. During our 2003-2004 review of  mobilization and demobilization issues, DOD was already facing some  critical personnel shortages. At that time, to expand its pool of available  personnel, DOD was considering a policy shift that would have authorized  mobilizations under the partial mobilization authority of up to  24 consecutive months with no limit on cumulative months. Under the  considered approach, DOD would have been able to mobilize its forces for  less than 24 months, send them home, and then remobilize them, repeating  this cycle indefinitely and providing essentially an unlimited flow of  forces. After our review was complete, DOD said it would continue its  implementation of the partial mobilization authority that limits  mobilizations to a cumulative total of 24 months. However, DOD did not  clarify how it planned to meet its longer-term requirements for the Global  War on Terrorism as successive groups of reserve component personnel  reach the 24-month mobilization point.
section_title: Many Policies Did Not Address Long-term Requirements or Predictability
paragraphs: DOD’s policies related to reserve component mobilizations were not  linked within the context of a strategic framework to meet the force  availability goals, and many policies have undergone significant changes.  Overall, the policies reflected DOD’s past use of the reserve components  as a strategic force, rather than DOD’s current use of the reserve  component as an operational force responding to the increased  requirements of the Global War on Terrorism. Faced with some critical  personnel shortages, the policies focused on the short-term needs of the  services and reserve component members, rather than on long-term  requirements and predictability. Lacking a strategic framework containing  human capital goals concerning reserve component force availability to  guide its policies, OSD and the services made several changes to their  policies to increase the availability of the reserve component forces. As a  result of these changes, predictability declined for reserve component  members. Specifically, reserve component members have faced  uncertainties concerning the cohesion of their units, the likelihood of their  mobilizations, the length of their service commitments, the length of their  overseas rotations, the types of missions they would be asked to perform,  and the availability of their equipment.
section_title: Volunteer and Individual Ready Reserve Policies
paragraphs: The partial mobilization authority allows DOD to involuntarily mobilize  members of the Ready Reserve, including the IRR; but after the President  invoked the partial mobilization authority on September 14, 2001, DOD  and service policies encouraged the use of volunteers and generally  discouraged the involuntary mobilization of IRR members. DOD officials  stated that they wanted to focus involuntary mobilizations on the paid,  rather than unpaid, members of the reserve components. However, our  prior reports documented the lack of predictability that resulted from the  volunteer and IRR policies. Our August 2003 mobilization report showed  that the policies were disruptive to the integrity of Army units because  there had been a steady flow of personnel among units. Personnel were  transferred from nonmobilizing units to mobilizing units that were short of  personnel, and when the units that had supplied the personnel were later  mobilized, they in turn were short of personnel and had to draw personnel  from still other units. From September 11, 2001 to May 15, 2004, the Army  Reserve mobilized 110,000 reservists, but more than 27,000 of these  reservists were transferred and mobilized with units that they did not  normally train with. In addition, our November 2004 report on the National  Guard noted that between September 11, 2001, and July 2004, the Army  National Guard had transferred over 74,000 personnel to deploying units.  The reluctance to use the IRR is reflected in the differences in usage rates  between Selected Reserve and IRR members. About 42 percent of the  personnel who were members of Selected Reserve on November 30, 2004,  had been mobilized since September 2001, compared to about 3 percent of  the IRR members. Within the Army, use of the IRR had been less than  2 percent. Because the IRR makes up about one-quarter of the Ready  Reserve, policies that discourage the use of the IRR will cause members of  the Selected Reserve to share greater exposure to the hazards associated  with national security and military requirements, and could cause DOD’s  pool of available reserve component personnel to shrink by more than  276,000 personnel.
subsections: section_title: Stop-Loss Policies
paragraphs: At various times since September 2001, all of the services have had  “stop-loss” policies in effect. These policies are short-term measures that  increase the availability of reserve component forces while decreasing  predictability for reserve component members who are prevented from  leaving the service at the end of their enlistment periods. Stop-loss policies  are often implemented to retain personnel in critical or high-use  occupational specialties.
The only stop-loss policy in effect when we ended our 2004 review of  mobilization and demobilization issues was an Army policy that applied to  units rather than individuals in critical occupations. Under that policy,  Army reserve component personnel were not permitted to leave the  service from the time their unit was alerted until 90 days after the date  when their unit was demobilized. Because many Army units undergo  several months of training after being mobilized but before being deployed  overseas for 12 months, stop-loss periods can reach 2 years or more.
According to Army officials, a substantial number of reserve component  members have been affected by the changing stop-loss policies. As of  June 30, 2004, the Army had over 130,000 reserve component members  mobilized and thousands more alerted or demobilized less than 90 days.  Because they have remaining service obligations, many of these reserve  component members would not have been eligible to leave the Army even  if stop-loss policies had not been in effect. However, from fiscal year 1993  through fiscal year 2001, Army National Guard annual attrition rates  exceeded 16 percent, and Army Reserve rates exceeded 25 percent. Even a  16 percent attrition rate means that 20,800 of the mobilized 130,000 reserve  component soldiers would have left their reserve component each year. If  attrition rates exceed 16 percent or the thousands of personnel who are  alerted or who have been demobilized for less than 90 days are included,  the numbers of personnel affected by stop-loss policies would increase  even more. When the Army’s stop-loss policies are eventually lifted,  thousands of servicemembers could retire or leave the service all at once,  and the Army’s reserve components could be confronted with a huge  increase in recruiting requirements.
section_title: Mobilization and Rotation Policies
paragraphs: Following DOD’s issuance of guidance concerning the length of  mobilizations in September 2001, the services initially limited most  mobilizations to 12 months, and most services maintained their existing  operational rotation policies to provide deployments of a predictable  length that are preceded and followed by standard maintenance and  training periods. However, the Air Force and the Army later increased the  length of their rotations, and the Army increased the length of its  mobilizations as well. These increases in the length of mobilizations and  rotations increased the availability of reserve component forces, but they  decreased predictability for individual reserve component members who  were mobilized and deployed under one set of policies but later extended  as a result of the policy changes.
From September 11, 2001, to March 31, 2004, the Air National Guard  mobilized more than 31,000 personnel, and the Air Force Reserve  mobilized more than 24,000 personnel. Although most Air Force  mobilizations were for 12 months or less, more than 10,000 air reserve  component members had their mobilization orders extended to 24 months.  Most of these personnel were in security-related occupations.
Before September 2001, the Army mobilized its reserve component forces  for up to 270 days under the Presidential Reserve Call-up authority, and it  deployed these troops overseas for rotations that lasted about 6 months.  When it began mobilizing forces under the partial mobilization authority in  September 2001, the Army generally mobilized troops for 12 months.  However, troops that were headed for duty in the Balkans continued to be  mobilized under the Presidential Reserve Call-up authority. The Army’s  initial deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan were scheduled for 6 months,  just like the overseas rotations for the Balkans. Eventually, the Army  increased the length of its rotations to Iraq and Afghanistan to 12 months.  This increased the availability of reserve component forces, but it  decreased predictability for members who were mobilized and deployed  during the transition period when the policy changed. When overseas  rotations were extended to 12 months, mobilization periods, which must  include mobilization and demobilization processing time, training time,  and time for the reserve component members to take any leave that they  earn, required a corresponding increase in length.
section_title: Cross-Training Policies
paragraphs: DOD has a number of training initiatives under way that will increase the  availability of its reserve component forces to meet immediate needs.  Servicemembers are receiving limited training—called “cross-training”— that enables them to perform missions that are outside their area of  expertise. In the Army, field artillery and air defense artillery units have  been trained to perform some military police duties. Air Force and Navy  personnel received additional training and are providing the Army with  additional transportation assets. DOD also has plans to permanently  convert thousands of positions from low-use career fields to stressed  career fields.
section_title: Equipment Transfer Policies
paragraphs: Because the combatant commander has required Army National Guard  units to have modern, capable, and compatible equipment for recent  operations, the Army National Guard adapted its units and transferred  equipment to deploying units from nondeploying units. However, this has  made equipping units for future operations more challenging. National  Guard data showed that between September 2002 and June 2004, the Army  National Guard had transferred more than 35,000 pieces of equipment to  units that were deploying in support of operations in Iraq. The equipment  included night vision goggles, machine guns, radios, chemical monitors,  and vehicles. As a result, it has become increasingly challenging for the  National Guard to ready later deploying units to meet warfighting  requirements.
section_title: Early Indications Exist That DOD May Have Trouble Meeting Its Rotation and Recruiting Goals
paragraphs: While it remains to be seen how the uncertainty resulting from changing  mobilization and personnel policies will affect recruiting, retention, and  the long-term availability of the reserve components, there are already  indications that some portions of the force are being stressed. For  example, the Army National Guard achieved only 87 percent of its  recruiting goals in both fiscal years 2003 and 2004, and in the first quarter  of fiscal year 2005 it achieved only 80 percent of its goal.
The Secretary of Defense established a force-planning metric to limit  involuntary mobilizations to “reasonable and sustainable rates” and has set  the metric for such mobilizations at 1 year out of every 6. However, on the  basis of current and projected usage, it appears that DOD may face  difficulties achieving its goal within the Army’s reserve components in the  near term. Since February 2003, the Army has continuously had between  20 and 29 percent of its Selected Reserve members mobilized. To  illustrate, even if the Army were to maintain the lower 20 percent  mobilization rate for Selected Reserve members, it would need to mobilize  one-fifth of its Selected Reserve members each year. DOD is aware that  certain portions of the force are used at much higher rates than others,  and it plans to address some of the imbalances by converting thousands of  positions from lower-demand specialties into higher-demand specialties.  However, these conversions will take place over several years, and even  when the positions are converted, it may take some time to recruit and  train people for the new positions.
section_title: DOD Plans to Address Increased Personnel Requirements Are Unclear
paragraphs: It is unclear how DOD plans to address its longer-term personnel  requirements for the Global War on Terrorism, given its current  implementation of the partial mobilization authority. Requirements  for reserve component forces increased dramatically after  September 11, 2001, and are expected to remain high for the foreseeable  future. In the initial months following September 11, 2001, the Air Force  used the partial mobilization authority more than the other services, and  it reached its peak with almost 38,000 reserve component members  mobilized in April 2002. However, by July 2002, Army mobilizations  surpassed those of the Air Force, and since December 2002, the Army has  had more reserve component members mobilized than all the other  services combined. According to OASD/RA data, about 42 percent  of DOD’s Selected Reserve forces had been mobilized from  September 14, 2001, to November 30, 2004. Although many of the  members who have been called to active duty under the partial  mobilization authority have been demobilized, as of January 19, 2005,  more than 192,000 of DOD’s reserve component members were still  mobilized and serving on active duty, and DOD has projected that for the  next 3 to 5 years it will have more than 100,000 reserve component  members mobilized, with most of these personnel continuing to come  from the Army National Guard or Army Reserve.
While Army forces may face the greatest levels of involuntary  mobilizations over the next few years, all the reserve components have  career fields that have been highly stressed. For example, across the  services, 82 percent of enlisted security forces have been called up since  September 11, 2001. Our September 2004 report detailed Navy, Marine  Corps, and Air Force career fields that have been stressed.
In June 2004, DOD noted that about 30,000 reserve members had already  been mobilized for 24 months. Under DOD’s cumulative approach, these  personnel will not be available to meet future requirements under the  current partial mobilization. The shrinking pool of available personnel,  along with the lack of a strategic plan to clarify goals regarding the reserve  component force’s availability, will present the department with additional  short- and long-term challenges as it tries to fill requirements for mobilized  reserve component forces.
section_title: Conclusions
paragraphs: As the Global War on Terrorism stretches into its fourth year, DOD  officials have made it clear that they do not expect the war to end soon.  Furthermore, indications exist that certain components and occupational  specialties are being stressed, and the long-term impact of this stress on  recruiting and retention is unknown. Moreover, although DOD has a  number of rebalancing efforts under way, these efforts will take years to  implement. Because this war is expected to last a long time and requires  far greater reserve component personnel resources than any of the smaller  operations of the previous two decades, DOD can no longer afford  individual policies that are developed to maximize short-term benefits and  must have an integrated set of policies that address both the long-term  requirements for reserve component forces and individual reserve  component members’ needs for predictability.
For example, service rotation policies are directly tied to other personnel  policies, such as policies concerning the use of the IRR and the extent of  cross training. Policies to fully utilize the IRR would increase the pool of  available servicemembers and would thus decrease the length of time each  member would need to be deployed, based on a static requirement.  Policies that encourage the use of cross-training for lesser-utilized units  could also increase the pool of available servicemembers and decrease the  length of rotations. Until DOD addresses its personnel policies within the  context of an overall strategic framework, it will not have clear visibility  over the forces that are available to meet future requirements. In addition,  it will be unable to provide reserve component members with clear  expectations of their military obligations and the increased predictability  that DOD has recognized is a key factor in retaining reserve component  members who are seeking to successfully balance their military  commitments with family and civilian employment obligations.
In our previously published reports, we made several recommendations  aimed at increasing the long-term availability of reserve component forces.  In particular, we recommended that DOD develop a strategic framework  that sets human capital goals concerning the availability of its reserve  force to meet the longer-term requirements of the Global War on  Terrorism, and we recommended that DOD identify policies that should be  linked within the context of the strategic framework. DOD generally  agreed with our recommendations concerning long-term availability of  reserve component forces.
section_title: Contacts and Acknowledgments
paragraphs: For answers to questions about this statement, please contact Derek B.  Stewart at (202) 512-5140 or stewartd@gao.gov or Brenda S. Farrell at  (202) 512-3604 or farrellb@gao.gov. Individuals making key contributions  to this statement included Michael J. Ferren, Kenneth E. Patton, and  Irene A. Robertson.
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