2000 Census: Lessons Learned for Planning a More Cost-Effective 2010 Census
Published: 2002-10-31T00:00:00

Fast Facts:

Highlights:
section_title: Why GAO Did This Study
paragraphs: GAO reviewed the funding of 2000 Census planning and development efforts and the impact it had on census operations.
section_title: What GAO Found
paragraphs: Total funding for the 2000 Census, referred to as the life cycle cost, covers a 13-year period from fiscal year 1991 through fiscal year 2003 and is expected to total $6.5 billion adjusted to 2000 year dollars. This amount was almost double the reported life cycle cost of the 1990 Census of $3.3 billion adjusted to 2000 year dollars. Considering these escalating costs, the experience of the U.S. Census Bureau in preparing for the 2000 Census offers valuable insights for the planning and development efforts now occurring for the 2010 Census. Thorough and comprehensive planning and development efforts are crucial to the ultimate efficiency and success of any large, long-term project, particularly one with the scope, magnitude, and the deadlines of the U.S. decennial census. For fiscal years 1991 through 1997, $269 million was requested in the President's Budgets for 2000 Census planning and development and the program received funding of $224 million by Congress, or 83 percent of the amount requested. According to U.S. Census Bureau records, the bulk of the $86 million in funding received through the end of fiscal year 1995 was obligated for program development and evaluation methodologies, testing and dress rehearsals, and planning for the acquisition of automated data processing and telecommunications support. The U.S. Census Bureau was responsible for carrying out its mission within the budget provided and bureau management determined the specific areas in which available resources were invested. GAO could not determine what effect, if any, that higher funding levels might have had on bureau operations as this is dependent upon actual implementation and the results of management decisions that may or may not have occurred. According to bureau officials, early planning and development efforts for the 2000 Census were adversely affected by lower funding than requested for fiscal years 1993 through 1997. They identified 10 areas where additional funding could have been beneficial. These included difficulties in retaining knowledgeable staff, scaled back plans for testing and evaluating 1990 Census data, delays in implementing a planning database, and limited resources to update address databases. The bureau's experience in preparing for the 2000 Census underscores the importance of solid, upfront planning and adequate funding levels to carry out those plans.

section_title: Letter
paragraphs: This report responds to your request to review the funding of 2000 Census  planning and development efforts and the impact it had on census  operations.   Total funding for the 2000 Census, referred to as the life cycle  cost, covers a 13-year period from fiscal year 1991 through fiscal year 2003  and is expected to total about $6.5 billion adjusted to 2000 year dollars.   This amount was almost double the reported life cycle cost of the 1990  Census of $3.3 billion adjusted to 2000 year dollars.  Current life cycle  unadjusted cost estimates of the 2010 Census range from $10 billion to $12  billion.  Considering these escalating costs, the experience of the U.S.  Census Bureau in preparing for the 2000 Census offers valuable insights for  the planning and development effort now occurring for the 2010 Census.   This report is part of a series of GAO studies on lessons to be learned from  the 2000 Census that can help bureau efforts to conduct an accurate and  cost-effective census in 2010.
We classified 2000 Census efforts into the following three phases.
The planning and development phase consisted of a variety of activities  to prepare for the actual decennial census count on April 1, 2000.   Although planning and development efforts continued into subsequent  phases of the census, this phase involved 7 fiscal years from 1991  through 1997 with actual funding of about $238 million adjusted to 2000  year dollars, or about 4 percent of the total decennial life cycle cost.
The implementation phase included conducting the 1998 dress  rehearsal, establishing 511 temporary local census offices in the 50  states, hiring and training over 500,000 temporary personnel, and then  conducting the actual census count.  This phase involved 3 fiscal years  from 1998 through 2000 with actual funding of about $5.6 billion  adjusted to 2000 year dollars, or about 86 percent of the total decennial  life cycle cost.
The postenumeration phase involves compiling and checking the  census counts for public release by April 1, 2001, for subsequent use in  congressional redistricting, and for other postcensus studies.  This  phase covers 3 fiscal years from 2001 through 2003 with estimated  funding of about $686 million adjusted to 2000 year dollars, or about 10  percent of the total decennial life cycle cost.
As agreed with your offices, our review focused on the planning and  development phase of the 2000 Census and (1) the funding requested,  received, and obligated, with funding received and obligated by major  planning category, (2) funding and other factors that affected planning  efforts, and (3) lessons learned for the 2010 Census.  Our analysis was  based on unaudited budget and financial data provided by the U.S. Census  Bureau.  We performed our work between January 2001 and July 2001 at  which time our review was suspended due to an inability to obtain access  to certain budget records.  After lengthy discussions with senior officials of  the bureau, the Department of Commerce, and the Office of Management  and Budget (OMB), and consultation with your staffs, this access issue was  resolved in May 2002 and we completed our analysis in June 2002.  Our  work was done in accordance with U.S. generally accepted government  auditing standards.  Further details on our scope and methodology are  presented in appendix I.
The Department of Commerce provided written comments on a draft of  this report, including two attachments.  We reprinted the comments in  appendix III, except for the second attachment, Potential Life-Cycle  Savings for the 2010 Census, which the bureau stated is currently under  revision and is outside the scope of our review.
subsections: section_title: Background
paragraphs: As a result of controversy and litigation surrounding the 1990 Decennial  Census, the U.S. Census Bureau recognized the need for a full-scale review  of its decennial census program.  The Congress, OMB, and GAO also agreed  that this review was needed and that it must occur early in the decade to  implement viable actions for the 2000 Census and to prepare for the 2010  Census.  Early in the 1990s, in reports and testimonies, we stressed the  importance of strong planning and the need for fundamental reform to  avoid the risk of a very expensive and seriously flawed census in 2000.
To address a redesign effort, in November 1990 the bureau formed the Task  Force for Planning the Year 2000 Census and Census-Related Activities for  2000-2009.  The task force was to consider lessons learned from the 1990  Census, technical and policy issues, constitutional and statutory mandates,  changes in U.S. society since earlier decennial censuses, and the most  current knowledge of statistical and social measurement. The bureau also  established a Year 2000 Research and Development Staff to assist the task  force and conduct numerous research projects designed to develop new  approaches and techniques for possible implementation in the 2000  Census.  In June 1995, the task force issued its report, Reinventing the  Decennial Census.
Concerns about the 1990 Census also led the Congress to pass the  Decennial Census Improvement Act of 1991 (Public Law 102-135) requiring  the National Academy of Sciences to study the means by which the  government could achieve the most accurate population count possible  and collect other demographic and housing data.  The academy established  a panel on methods to provide an independent review of the technical and  operational feasibility of design alternatives and tests conducted by the  U.S. Census Bureau.  The panel issued its final report in September 1994.  A  second academy panel on requirements examined the role of the decennial  census within the federal statistical system and issued its final report in  November 1994.
In March 1995, the bureau conducted the 1995 Census Test which provided  a critical source of information to decide by December 1995 the final design  of the 2000 Census.  These efforts resulted in a planned approach for  reengineering the 2000 Census which was presented in a May 19, 1995, U.S.  Census Bureau report, The Reengineered 2000 Census.
In October 1995, we testified on the bureau’s plans for the 2000 Census.  In  that testimony, we concluded that the established approach used to  conduct the 1990 Census had exhausted its potential for counting the  population cost-effectively and that fundamental design changes were  needed to reduce census costs and to improve the quality of data collected.   We also raised concerns about the bureau proceeding with design plans for  the 2000 Census without input from the Congress.  In the intervening  months, the bureau was unable to come to agreement with the Congress on  critical design and funding decisions.  In February 1997, we designated the  2000 Decennial Census a new high-risk area because of the possibility that  further delays could jeopardize an effective census and increase the  likelihood that billions of dollars could be spent and the nation be left with  demonstrably inaccurate census results.  In July 1997, we updated our  1995 testimony on bureau design and planning initiatives for the 2000  Census and assessed the feasibility of bureau plans for carrying out the  2000 Census.
To respond to Title VIII of Public Law 105-18, which required the  Department of Commerce to provide detailed data about the bureau’s plans  by July 12, 1997, the bureau issued its Report to Congress, The Plan For  Census 2000.   This plan also incorporated the bureau’s Census 2000  Operational Plan that was updated annually.  In November 1997, Public  Law 105-119 established the Census Monitoring Board to observe and  monitor all aspects of the bureau’s preparation and implementation of the  2000 Census.  Section 209 (j) of this legislation also required the bureau to  plan for dual tracks of the traditional count methodology and the use of  statistical sampling to identify historically undercounted populations of  children and minorities.
subsections: section_title: Census Appropriations
paragraphs: As 1 of 13 bureaus within the Department of Commerce, the U.S. Census  Bureau must submit its annual budget for review and inclusion in the  department’s budget.  The department must then make choices in  consideration of its overall budget to OMB and will therefore make  adjustments to bureau-requested budgets as deemed necessary.  OMB will  review and further adjust department and bureau budgets to consider the  programs and priorities of the entire federal government that become the  President’s Budget.  The Congress may then adjust the President’s Budget  through the appropriation process that becomes the budget of the  departments and the bureaus after signature by the President.   The  appropriations for decennial census are no-year funds that are available  until expended, rescinded, transferred, or until the account is closed.
section_title: Total Funding for Bureau Planning Was Lower Than Requested
paragraphs: As shown in table 1, the Department of Commerce requested a total of  $268.7 million for 2000 Census planning and development in the President’s  Budgets for fiscal years 1991 through 1997.  The program received total  funding of $223.7 million from the Congress, or about 83 percent of the  amount requested.  Although the 2000 Census received all of the funding  requested in the President’s Budgets for fiscal years 1991 and 1992, it  received reduced funding for each fiscal year from 1993 through 1997.   According to the bureau, these reductions resulted in the elimination,  deferral, or scaling back of certain projects in planning for the 2000 Census.   The bureau subsequently obligated 99 percent of its appropriated 2000  Census funding through fiscal year 1997.
Bureau records indicated that the bulk of $86 million of decennial funding  received through the end of fiscal year 1995 was obligated for program  development and evaluation methodologies, testing and dress rehearsals,  and planning for the acquisition of automated data processing and  telecommunications support.  For fiscal years 1996 and 1997, bureau  records indicated that the bulk of $138 million of decennial funding  received was obligated for planning the establishment of field data  collection and support systems, refining data content and products,  evaluating test results, and procuring automated data processing and  telecommunications support.  For the planning and development phase,  personnel costs consumed about 53 percent of planning and development  funds; contractual services consumed 16 percent; and space, supplies,  travel, and other expenses consumed the remaining 31 percent.
Because of different major program categories used by the bureau from  fiscal years 1991 through 1997, we could not present a comprehensive table  of funding for the period.  However, we were able to analyze the funding by  fiscal year and a detailed analysis of funding requested, received, and  obligated, and funds budgeted by major program category for fiscal years  1991 through 1997 are presented in appendix II.
section_title: Funding and Other Factors Affected Planning Efforts
paragraphs: The U.S. Census Bureau was responsible for carrying out its mission within  the budget provided and bureau management determined the specific areas  in which available resources were invested.  We could not determine what  effect, if any, that higher funding levels might have had on census  operations as this is dependent upon actual implementation and the results  of management decisions that may or may not have occurred. However,  according to bureau officials, lower than requested funding levels for fiscal  years 1993 through 1997 adversely affected the bureau’s planning and  development efforts for the 2000 Census.  As examples, they cited the  following 10 areas where reduced funding levels caused the bureau to  curtail planning initiatives.  Although lower funding levels may have  affected these areas, information from previous bureau and GAO reports  and testimony indicated that operational, methodological, and other  factors also contributed to weaknesses in the bureau’s planning efforts. 1. Difficulties in retaining knowledgeable staff.  Although many key  bureau personnel and project managers involved with the 2000 Census  had also worked on the 1990 and earlier decennial censuses, bureau  officials stated that many experienced people retired or left the bureau  after the 1990 Census. According to the bureau, a contributing factor  was lower funding levels to pay personnel compensation and benefits,  which in turn affected the number of personnel with institutional  knowledge of the decennial census to lend support to the 2000 Census  planning and development effort.
We noted that soon after a major event such as the decennial census  count, it is not unusual for personnel to leave the bureau, as did three  senior executives after the 2000 Census.  In addition, Office of  Personnel Management data indicated that over half of the bureau’s  full-time, nonseasonal work force of 5,345 employees as of March 2002  is eligible for retirement by 2010.  Thus, the human capital issue will  remain a key planning area to ensure that the bureau has the skill mix  necessary to meet its future requirements. 2. Scaled-back plans for testing and evaluating 1990 Census data.  A  bureau official stated that the amount of qualitative and quantitative  data from the 1990 Census was limited and hampered the quality and  results of planning and development efforts for the 2000 Census.   Additionally, many opportunities were lost in capitalizing on the 1990  Census data that did exist and more funding to evaluate this data could  have facilitated 2000 Census research and planning efforts.  Bureau  officials stated that as they moved forward with planning for the 2000  Census, they had to scale back plans for testing and evaluating 1990  Census data because of a lack of funding.  For example, they cited the  inability to update a 1990 Census study of enumerator supervisor ratios.   3. Delays in implementing a planning database.  Bureau officials stated  that they were unable to implement an effective planning database in  the early years of the 2000 Census.  In one of its first plans, the bureau  conceived of a planning database that would capture data down to very  small geographic levels and would be continuously updated over the  decade for a number of census purposes.  This database would have  enabled the bureau to target areas where language resources were  needed, identify areas where enumeration and recruiting could be  difficult, and position data capture centers to support the most cost- efficient and effective infrastructure.  However, according to bureau  officials, with lower funding through fiscal year 1995, the planning  database was put on hold.  Later in the decade, the bureau resurrected  the planning database but did not develop and use it fully.  4. Limited resources to update address databases.  According to bureau  officials, sufficient resources to update and coordinate large databases  of addresses and physical locations provided a continuous challenge to  the bureau.  At the end of the 1990 Census, the bureau’s database  contained 102 million addresses, each assigned to the census block  area in which it was located.  At that point, the U.S. Census Bureau’s  Geography Division initiated discussions with the U.S. Postal Service to  utilize its Delivery Sequence File (DSF) that contained millions of  addresses used to deliver the U.S. mail.   The bureau planned to use the  DSF in updating its address database which became the Master  Address File (MAF). With lower funding through 1995, bureau officials  cited limited resources to update the MAF database and to assess the  quality of entered information. 5. Program to identify duplicate responses was not fully developed.
Bureau officials stated the program to identify duplicate responses was  not fully developed for the 2000 Census and more emphasis and  funding were needed to develop appropriate software and procedures.   It is important to be able to identify duplications in the MAF and  multiple responses from a person or household that contribute to a  population overcount.  This includes operations to identify multiple  responses for the same address and computer matching of census  responses received against all other people enumerated in the block.   Duplications also occurred due to college students counted both at  school and at home, people with multiple residences, and military  personnel residing outside their home state.   6. Abandoned plans to use administrative records.  In early planning for  the 2000 Census, the bureau funded efforts to use records from  nonbureau sources of information (such as driver licenses, voter  registrations, and other government programs) to supplement the  census count.  This administrative records project was the result of  extensive research studies conducted by the bureau beginning in 1993  that focused on initial plans for three uses of nonbureau information to  derive census totals for some nonresponding households,  enhance the coverage measurement operations, and  help provide missing content from otherwise responding households.
Although bureau officials determined that administrative records had  the potential to improve coverage, the bureau abandoned plans to fund  and more fully develop an administrative records database in February  1997.  While the lack of funding may have been a contributing factor,  bureau documents indicated that this action was primarily due to  questions about the accuracy and quality of administrative records and  issues of privacy protection.  7. Problems with multiple language questionnaires.  Bureau officials  cited several funding and operational problems with census  questionnaires in the five languages that were used other than  English.   In 1995, the bureau planned to mail forms in both Spanish  and English to areas with high concentrations of Spanish speakers and  produce forms in other languages as needed.  In March 1997, in  response to requests for forms in other languages, the bureau  announced its intent to print questionnaires in multiple languages in an  effort to increase the mail response rate.  The bureau selected four  additional languages as a manageable number based upon a perceived  demand.  However, the bureau could not determine how to pinpoint the  communities that needed the non-English questionnaires.  Instead, the  bureau indicated in a mailing that the questionnaires were available in  five languages and if an individual wanted a questionnaire in a language  other than English, the individual had to specifically request the  questionnaire in that language.  As a result, the bureau did not know the  number of questionnaires to print in the five languages until late in the  process.  Finally, the bureau did not have the time to comprehensively  assess the demand for questionnaires in other languages.   8. Cost-effective use of emerging data capture technology.  Early bureau  research assessed current and emerging data capture technologies,  such as electronic imaging, optical mark recognition, and hand-held  devices, which offered the potential for significant cost reductions in  processing large volumes of data.  Bureau officials indicated they were  unsure of their exact requirements for the emerging data capture  technologies, and this resulted in most contracts being cost- reimbursement contracts that required more funding than planned.   The bureau estimated that it ultimately spent about $500 million on  contracts to improve the data capturing process.
Bureau officials also stated that they did not have the time to fully  develop and test the data capture systems or data capture centers, both  of which were contracted for the first time in the 2000 Census.  For  example, the bureau said it could not adequately prepare for the full  development and testing of the imaging contract.  As a consequence,  the first imaging test did not occur until 1998, and bureau officials  stated that it became clear that imaging was not working due to  technical and implementation problems.  To some extent, this is not  unexpected when implementing new technologies.  Although the  contractor and the bureau felt the system was not ready, it was tested  anyway due to the short time frame and major problems developed.   Even though the system eventually became operational in time for the  2000 Census count, bureau officials indicated that this occurred at a  higher than anticipated risk and cost.   9. More use of the Internet.  In the early 1990s, the full impact of the  Internet as a global communications tool was not yet envisioned.   Officials indicated that the bureau did not have sufficient time and  funding during the planning phase to fully understand and test all the  implications of using the Internet as a vehicle for census responses.  In  addition, the bureau’s major concern was that computer security issues  had not been adequately addressed, particularly since census  information must be protected and significant penalties may be  imposed for unauthorized disclosure.  Also, the public perception of  using the Internet as a response medium had not been fully explored.   Nevertheless, in February 1999, the bureau established a means for  respondents to complete the 2000 Census short forms on the Internet  protected by a 22-digit identification number.  According to bureau  officials, they received about 60,000 short forms via the Internet.  The  rapid evolution of the Internet has the potential to significantly reduce  bureau workload and the large volume of paper forms for the 2010  Census. 10. Preparation for dress rehearsals.  Bureau officials cited many  problems during the fiscal year 1998 dress rehearsals for the 2000  Census that were a direct result of funding levels in the early planning  and development years.  They stated that because of delays in receiving  funding in the fall of 1997, they had to delay the dress rehearsal census  day from April 4 to April 18, 1998.  In addition, because many new items  were incomplete or still under development, the bureau said it could  not fully test them during the dress rehearsals with any degree of  assurance as to how they would affect the 2000 Census.
However, despite these problems, the bureau testified in March 1998 that  all preparatory activities for the dress rehearsal—mapping, address listing,  local updates of addresses, opening and staffing offices, and printing  questionnaires—had been completed.  In 1999, the bureau issued an  evaluation that concluded that all in all, the Census 2000 dress rehearsal  was successful.  The evaluation also stated that the bureau produced  population numbers on time that compared favorably with independent  benchmarks.  It also acknowledged some problems, but devised methods  to address those problems.  Although the bureau conceded that planning  efforts could be improved, the lack of funding did not appear to be a  significant issue, except as it affected the ability to earlier plan the dress  rehearsal.
section_title: 2000 Census Planning Provides Lessons Learned for The 2010 Census
paragraphs: The bureau’s experience in preparing for the 2000 Census underscores the  importance of solid, upfront planning and adequate funding levels to carry  out those plans.  As we have reported in the past, planning a decennial  census that is acceptable to stakeholders includes analyzing the lessons  learned from past practices, identifying initiatives that show promise for  producing a better census while controlling costs, testing these initiatives  to ensure their feasibility, and convincing stakeholders of the value of  proposed plans.
Contributing factors to the funding reductions for the 2000 Census were the  bureau’s persistent lack of comprehensive planning and priority setting,  coupled with minimal research, testing, and evaluation documentation to  promote informed and timely decision making.  Over the course of the  decade, the Congress, GAO, and others criticized the bureau for not fully  addressing such areas as (1) capitalizing on its experiences from past  decennial censuses to serve as lessons to be learned in future planning,  (2) documenting its planning efforts, particularly early in the process,  (3) concentrating its efforts on a few critical projects that significantly  affected the census count, such as obtaining a complete and accurate  address list, (4) presenting key implementation issues with decision  milestones, and (5) identifying key performance measures for success.
Capitalizing on experiences from past censuses.  In a fiscal year 1993  conference report, the Congress stated that the bureau should direct  its resources towards a more cost-effective census design that would  produce more accurate results than those from the 1990 Census.   Further, the Congress expected the bureau to focus on realistic  alternative means of collecting data, such as the use of existing surveys,  rolling sample surveys, or other vehicles and that cost considerations  should be a substantial factor in evaluating the desirability of design  alternatives.
In March 1993 we testified that time available for fundamental census  reform was slipping away and important decisions were needed by  September 1993 to guide planning for 1995 field tests, shape budget and  operational planning for the rest of the census cycle, and guide future  discussions with interested parties.  We noted that the bureau’s strategy  for identifying promising census designs and features was proving to be  cumbersome and time consuming, and the bureau had progressed  slowly in reducing the design alternatives for the next census down to a  manageable number.
Documenting early planning efforts.  It is particularly important early  in the planning process to provide a roadmap for further work.  We  found that the bureau did not document its 2000 Census planning until  late in the planning phase.  While the U.S. Census Bureau prepared a  few pages to justify its annual budget requests for fiscal years 1991  through 1997, it did not provide a substantive document of its 2000  Census planning efforts until May 1995, and this plan was labeled a  draft.  Finally, the Congress mandated that the bureau issue a  comprehensive and detailed plan for the 2000 Census within 30 days  from enactment of the law.   On July 12, 1997, the bureau issued its  Report to the Congress—The Plan for Census 2000, along with its  Census 2000 Operational Plan.
Concentrating efforts on a few critical projects.  While the bureau  required many activities to count a U.S. population of 281 million  residing in 117.3 million households, a few critical activities  significantly affected the Census 2000 count, such as obtaining a  complete and accurate address list.  Although the bureau was aware of  serious problems with its address list development process, it did not  acknowledge the full impact of these problems until the first quarter of  1997.  Based upon its work with the postal service database, the 1995  Census Test, and pilot testing at seven sites, the bureau had gained  sufficient evidence that its existing process would result in an  unacceptably inaccurate address list due to    inconsistencies in the quality of the postal service database across   missing addresses for new construction;  difficulties in identifying individual units in multiunit structures, such  as apartment buildings; and  inability of local and tribal governments to provide usable address  lists.
In September 1997, the bureau acknowledged these problems and  proposed changes.  However, we believe that this action occurred too  late in the planning process and was not given a higher priority to  benefit the 2000 Census enumeration.
Presenting key implementation issues and decision milestones.  The  bureau discussed program areas as part of its annual budget requests  for fiscal years 1991 through 1997, but the requests did not identify key  implementation issues with decision milestones to target its planning  activities.  Decision milestones did not appear until July 1997, when the  bureau issued its Census 2000 Operational Plan.  Stakeholders such as  the Congress are more likely to approve plans and funding requests  when they are thoroughly documented and include key elements such  as decision milestones.
Identifying key performance measures.  Census planning documents  provided to us through fiscal year 1997 did not identify key  performance measures.  We believe that identifying key performance  measures is critical to assessing success in the planning phase of the  census and can provide quantitative targets for accomplishments by  framework, activity, and individual projects.  Such measures could  include performance goals such as increasing mail response rates,  reducing population overcount and undercount rates, and improving  enumerator productivity rates.
section_title: Conclusions
paragraphs: The lessons learned from planning the 2000 Census become even more  crucial in planning for the next decennial census in 2010, which has current  unadjusted life cycle cost estimates ranging from $10 billion to $12 billion.   Thorough and comprehensive planning and development efforts are crucial  to the ultimate efficiency and success of any large, long-term project,  particularly one with the scope, magnitude, and deadlines of the U.S.  decennial census.   Initial investment in planning activities in areas such as  technology and administrative infrastructure can yield significant gains in  efficiency, effectiveness, and cost reduction in the later implementation  phase.  The success of the planning and development activities now  occurring will be a major factor in determining whether this large  investment will result in an accurate and efficient national census in 2010.   Critical considerations are a comprehensive and prioritized plan of goals, objectives, and projects;  milestones and performance measures; and documentation to support research, testing, and evaluation.
A well-supported plan early in the process that includes these elements will  be a major factor in ensuring that stakeholders have the information to  make funding decisions.
section_title: Recommendation for Executive Action
paragraphs: As the U.S. Census Bureau plans for the 2010 Census, we recommend that  the Secretary of Commerce direct that the bureau provide comprehensive  information backed by supporting documentation in its future funding  requests for planning and development activities, that would include, but is  not limited to, such items as  specific performance goals for the 2010 Census and how bureau efforts,  procedures, and projects would contribute to those goals; detailed information on project feasibility, priorities, and potential  risks; key implementation issues and decision milestones; and performance measures.
section_title: Agency Comments and Our Evaluation
paragraphs: In commenting on our report, the department agreed with our  recommendation and stated that the bureau is expanding the documents  justifying its budgetary requests.  For example, the bureau cited a  document which outlines planned information technology development  and activities throughout the decennial cycle of the 2010 Census.  The  bureau also included a two-page document, Reengineering the 2010  Census, which presented three integrated components and other plans to  improve upon the 2000 Census.  In this regard, it is essential that, as we  recommended, the bureau follow through with details and documentation  to implement these plans, define and quantify performance measures  against goals, and provide decision milestones for specific activities and  projects.
As agreed with you office, unless you announce its contents earlier, we plan  no futher distribution of this report until 7 days after its issuance date.  At  that time, we will send copies of this report to the Chairman and Ranking  Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, the  House Committee on Government Reform, and the House Subcommittee  on Civil Service, Census, and Agency Organization.  We will also send  copies to the Director of the U.S. Census Bureau, the Secretary of  Commerce, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, the  Secretary of the Treasury, and other interested parties.  This report will also  be available on GAO’s home page at http://www.gao.gov.
If you or your staffs have any questions concerning this report, please  contact Gregory D. Kutz at (202) 512-9095 or kutzg@gao.gov, Patricia A.  Dalton at (202) 512-6806 or daltonp@gao.gov, or Roger R. Stoltz, Assistant  Director, at (202) 512-9408 or stoltzr@gao.gov.  Key contributors to this  report were Corinne P. Robertson, Robert N. Goldenkoff, and Ty B.  Mitchell.
section_title: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology
paragraphs: The objectives of our review focused on the planning and development  phase of the 2000 Census that we classified as covering fiscal years 1991  through 1997 and (1) the funding requested, received, and obligated with  funding received and obligated by major planning category, (2) funding and  other factors that affected planning efforts, and (3) lessons learned for the  2010 Census.
To determine the amount of 2000 Census planning and development  funding requested, received, and obligated, we obtained and analyzed  annual decennial census budgets included in the President’s Budgets for  fiscal years 1991 through 1997, budgets subsequently received after  appropriation by the Congress, and amounts later obligated for the  purchase of goods and services by the bureau against those budgets.   We  then obtained explanations from senior bureau officials for significant  variances in these budgets and the effect on decennial planning and  development. However, we did not assess the efficiency of the budgeting  process and the validity, accuracy, and completeness of obligations against  budgeted amounts received.
To determine the funding received and obligated by major planning  category for 2000 Census planning and development, we obtained and  analyzed funding requested, received, and obligated by framework, activity,  project, and object class and examined annual operational plans.  However,  our analysis was hampered by the bureau’s inconsistent use of categories  that evolved from 1 activity of general planning in fiscal year 1991, 8 major  study areas in fiscal years 1992 and 1993, and 8 to 15 broad categories  called frameworks beginning in 1994.  For internal management and  reporting, the bureau further identified program efforts by activities and  projects that have varied since fiscal year 1991.  Additionally, the bureau  expanded, contracted, or modified program names and descriptions  making comparisons more difficult.  We also obtained explanations from  bureau officials for significant efforts and variances in its funding received  and obligation of planning and development funding for the 2000 Census.   However, we did not assess the merits of budgeting by program and the  subsequent validity, accuracy, and completeness of obligations.
To identify funding and other factors that affected planning efforts, we  analyzed significant changes in funding requested, received, and obligated  at the framework level; identified initiatives that were reduced, eliminated,  or severely curtailed; discussed the effect of these areas with bureau  officials; and evaluated bureau responses.  We also reviewed various  reports, testimony, and supporting documents prepared by the bureau,  GAO, and others.  However, we could not determine what effect, if any, that  higher levels of funding might have had on 2000 Census operations.  These  factors are dependent upon actual implementation and the results of  management decisions that may or may not have occurred.
To provide lessons learned for the 2010 Census, we identified areas for  improvement and obtained support from bureau, GAO, and congressional  reports, testimony, interviews, and other documents.
Our work was performed in Washington, D.C. and at U.S. Census Bureau  headquarters in Suitland, Maryland between January and July 2001 when  our review was suspended due to an inability to obtain access to certain  budget records.  After lengthy discussions with senior officials of the  bureau, Department of Commerce, and OMB, and consultation with your  staffs, this access issue was resolved in May 2002 and we completed our  analysis in June 2002.  Our work was done in accordance with U.S.  generally accepted government auditing standards, except that we did not  audit budget and other financial data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau.
On October 16, 2002, the Department of Commerce provided written  comments on a draft of this report, including two attachments.  These  comments are presented in the “Agency Comments and Our Evaluation”  section of the report and are reprinted in appendix III, except for the  second attachment, Potential Life-Cycle Savings for the 2010 Census,  which is currently under revision and is outside the scope of our review.
section_title: Analysis of Funding by Fiscal Year for Planning and Development of the 2000 Census
paragraphs: This appendix includes our analysis of 2000 Census funding requested,  received, and obligated, and funding received and obligated by major  planning category for fiscal years 1991 through 1997.  Our analysis was  hampered by the bureau’s inconsistent use of major planning categories  that evolved over the period as follows:  1 activity of general planning in fiscal year 1991,  8 major study areas in fiscal years 1992 and 1993, and   8 to 15 broad categories called frameworks beginning in 1994.
For internal management and reporting, the bureau further identified  program efforts by activities and projects that have varied since fiscal year  1991.  In addition, the bureau expanded, contracted, or modified program  names and descriptions making comparisons more difficult.
subsections: section_title: Fiscal Year 1991 and 1992 Funding
paragraphs: In March 1991 we testified that fundamental census reform was needed  because escalating costs and the apparently increased undercount of the  1990 Census suggested that the current census methodology may have  reached the limits of its effectiveness.  Of three principles we presented,  the last was that the Department of Commerce must be willing to invest  sufficient funds early in the decade to achieve cost savings and census  improvements in 2000.  In fact, OMB deemed some of the Department of  Commerce requests to fund early census reform as insufficient and  doubled the department’s requested amounts to $1.5 million for fiscal year  1991 and $10.1 million for fiscal year 1992.  These amounts were included in  the President’s Budgets and the Congress concurred by authorizing the full  amount requested.  Census planning officials said that if OMB had not  augmented the department’s request, testing of reform options for 2000  would have been constrained.
For the first year of the 7-year 2000 Census planning and development  phase, the fiscal year 1991 funding received was $1.5 million and the bureau  obligated the entire amount.  The funding contained only one category of  general planning for the 2000 Census with funds to be used for:  completion of detailed cost-benefit studies of alternatives designs for  conducting the decennial census;  exploration of new technologies to improve the 2000 Census;  establishment of research and development efforts for administrative  methods and modeling and estimation techniques; and  planning of field tests in fiscal year 1993 to include new census content,  methods, technologies, and field structures.
Because total amounts were small and involved only general planning,  there were no significant variances.  We noted that about 46 percent of the  funding was obligated for personnel costs relating to 19 full-time equivalent  (FTE) staff, 29 percent for services including consultants; and the  remaining 25 percent for space, supplies, travel, and other costs.
Fiscal year 1992 funding received was $10.1 million and the bureau  obligated $9.4 million against it.  The funding now identified eight major  study areas for the 2000 Census as indicated in table 2.
For fiscal year 1992, the bureau experienced almost a six-fold increase in  its funding received of $10.1 million over the $1.5 million for fiscal year  1991.  About half of the fiscal year 1992 funding was obligated for personnel  costs as a result of almost a five-fold increase in FTE staff from 19 in fiscal  year 1991 to 111 in fiscal year 1992 to work on decennial planning and  development issues.  Services, including consultants, accounted for  another quarter of the obligations with the remaining quarter for space,  supplies, travel, and other costs.  Technology options included a $1.7  million services contract to develop emerging data capture technology to  compile census statistics.
section_title: Fiscal Year 1993 Funding
paragraphs: For fiscal year 1993, the Congress reduced the President’s Budget request  of $19.4 million for 2000 Census planning and development to $13.7  million, for a reduction of about 29 percent.  As a result of this $5.7 million  reduction, the bureau made significant cuts in its funding of techniques for  special areas and subpopulations by $2.2 million, or about 70 percent, and  also eliminated activities to:  establish contacts with state and local government budgeted for $1.6   assess customer needs budgeted for $1.0 million,  survey public motivation budgeted for $.8 million, and  prepare infrastructure for a 1995 Census Test budgeted for $.5 million.
In a fiscal year 1993 conference report, the Congress stated that the  bureau should direct its resources towards a more cost-effective census  design that will produce more accurate results than those from the 1990  Census.  For example, the bureau’s research in fiscal year 1992 indicated  that reducing the number of questions on the census form is an important  way to increase response, thereby increasing accuracy and reducing cost.
Therefore, the Congress expected the bureau to focus on realistic  alternative means of collecting data, such as the use of existing surveys,  rolling sample surveys, or other vehicles and that cost considerations  should be a substantial factor in evaluating the desirability of design  alternatives.
In March 1993 we testified that time available for fundamental census  reform was slipping away and important decisions were needed by  September 1993 to guide planning for 1995 field tests, shape budget and  operational planning for the rest of the census cycle, and guide future  discussions with interested parties.  The bureau’s strategy for identifying  promising census designs and features was proving to be cumbersome and  time consuming, and the bureau had progressed slowly in reducing the  design alternatives for the next census down to a manageable number.
Fiscal year 1993 funding received was $13.7 million and the bureau  obligated $13.5 million against it.  The budget continued to identify eight  major study areas for the 2000 Census as indicated in table 3.
For fiscal year 1993, the bureau experienced a 36 percent increase in its  funding received of $13.7 million over the $10.1 million for fiscal year 1992.   About 53 percent of the fiscal year 1993 funding was obligated for  personnel costs as a result of a 48 percent increase in FTE staff from 111 in  fiscal year 1992 to 164 in fiscal year 1993 to work on decennial planning and  development issues.  Services, including consultants, accounted for about  11 percent of the funding with the remaining 36 percent used for space,  supplies, travel, and other costs.  Fiscal year 1993 was identified by the  bureau as the beginning of a 3-year period to identify the most promising  changes to be integrated in the 1995 Census Test.
section_title: Fiscal Year 1994 Funding
paragraphs: For fiscal year 1994, the Congress reduced the President’s Budget request  of $23.1 million for 2000 Census planning and development to $18.7  million, for a reduction of about 19 percent.  As a result of this $4.4 million  reduction, the bureau eliminated decennial operational preparation for $2.5  million, and reduced funding for questionnaire design and cost modeling by  $1.6 million or 70 percent.
In May 1993 we testified that the U.S. Census Bureau had altered its  decision-making approach and refocused its 2000 Census research and  development efforts.  Driven by its impending September 1993 deadline for  deciding which designs to test in 1995 for the 2000 Census, the bureau  recommended rejecting all 14 design alternatives that had formed the  framework of its research program that was under study for a year.   Instead, the bureau reverted to an earlier approach of concentrating  favorable features into the design for application in the 2000 Census.
A fiscal year 1994 House Appropriations Committee report cited our May  1993 testimony and stated that it was unacceptable for the bureau to  conduct the 2000 Census under a process that followed the general plan  used in the 1990 Census.   A fiscal year 1994 conference report expressed  concern that the U.S. Census Bureau had not adequately addressed cost  and scope issues for the 2000 Census and expected the Department of  Commerce and OMB to take a more active role in planning for the  decennial census to ensure that data requirements for federal agencies and  state and local government were considered in the planning effort.
In October 1993 we testified that the U.S. Census Bureau’s research and  development efforts had been slowed by its changing planning strategy and  that the bureau still faced the difficult task of integrating its Test Design  Recommendation proposals into a detailed implementation plan for the  1995 census test. We noted that the bureau’s plans to conduct research and  evaluations for such promising proposals as the one-number census,  sampling for nonresponse, and defining the content of the census were in a  state of flux.  Other important research and planning activities, such as  improving the address list and using new automated techniques to convert  respondent answers to machine-readable format, were behind schedule.   Funding for research and test census preparation in fiscal years 1994 and  1995 was in doubt as evidenced by the budget cuts proposed by the House  Appropriations Committee and the opinions expressed in its report  accompanying the fiscal year 1994 appropriations bill.
The bureau obligated the entire amount of its fiscal year 1994 funding  received of $18.7 million.  Funding originally contained 6 design areas for  2000 Census research and development, the 1995 Census test, and  decennial operational preparation but was later revised to present funds  received and obligated in 13 frameworks of effort as indicated in table 4.
For fiscal year 1994, the bureau experienced a 36 percent increase in its  funding received of $18.7 million over the $13.7 million for fiscal year 1993.   About 44 percent of the fiscal year 1994 funding was obligated for  personnel costs as a result of a 34 percent increase in FTE staff from 164 in  fiscal year 1993 to 220 in fiscal year 1994 to work on decennial planning and  development issues.  Services, including consultants, accounted for  another 13 percent of obligations with the remaining 43 percent for space,  supplies, travel, and other costs.  We noted that six frameworks received  little or no funding and three frameworks accounted for 89 percent of the  fiscal year 1994 funds received and obligated as follows: Framework 5 - Evaluation and development consumed $7.1 million or 38  percent of funding received and obligated for research and developmental  work to support the 1995 census test.  This included  research on the use of matching keys beyond just a person’s residence  address to develop matching procedures that would allow the bureau to  make use of person-based administrative records files that do not have a  current residential address;  research on various uses of sampling including technical and policy  issues on conducting the entire census on a sample basis and  conducting only the nonresponse follow-up portion of the census on a  sample basis; and  race and ethnicity studies including extensive consultation with  stakeholders, focus group testing, and planning of field tests.
Framework 3 - Test census and dress rehearsal consumed $5.5 million or  29 percent of funding received and obligated to increase 1995 Census Test  activities from preliminary studies and planning to the full-scale  preparatory level program.  These included such activities as  completion of questionnaire content determination,  analysis of a database of population characteristics by geographic area  to make selections of test sites,  determination of evaluation program objectives for the test, and  determination of objectives for and design stakeholder consultation.
Framework 11 - Automation/telecommunication support consumed $4.0  million or 21 percent of funding received and obligated for automated  systems design and acquisition of data capture technology to upgrade the  1990 Census system (FACT90) to a 2000 Census system (DCS 2000).
section_title: Fiscal Year 1995 Funding
paragraphs: For fiscal year 1995, the Congress reduced the President’s Budget request  of $48.6 million for 2000 Census planning and development to $42.0 million  for a reduction of about 14 percent.  As a result of this $6.6 million  reduction, the bureau eliminated $9.0 million for decennial operation  preparation and $.8 million for 1996 testing while increasing funding for  program development and other areas by $3.2 million.
In January 1994 we testified that while we were encouraged by the U.S.  Census Bureau’s recent focus on testing specific proposals to modify the  census methodology, we believed that the bureau must aggressively plan  for and carefully implement its research, testing, and evaluation programs.   Further, the results of those efforts must be available to make fully  informed and timely decisions and build needed consensus among key  stakeholders and customers for changes in the 2000 Census.
A fiscal year 1995 Senate Appropriations Committee report strongly  recommended that the bureau adopt more cost-effective means of  conducting the next census as the budgetary caps and strict employment  ceilings adopted by the President and the Congress would not  accommodate a repeat of the process used in the 1990 Census.
Fiscal year 1995 funding received was $42.0 million and the bureau  obligated $40.9 million against it.  The number of frameworks increased to  15 as indicated in table 5.
For fiscal year 1995, the bureau experienced a 125 percent increase in its  funding received of $42.0 million over the $18.7 million for fiscal year 1994.   About 51 percent of the fiscal year 1995 funding was obligated for  personnel costs as a result of a 211 percent increase in FTE staff from 220  in fiscal year 1994 to 685 in fiscal year 1995 to work on decennial planning  and development issues.  Services, including consultants, accounted for  about 7 percent of the obligations with the remaining 42 percent for space,  supplies, travel, and other costs.  We noted that eight frameworks received  little or no funding and Framework 3 accounted for over 70 percent of  fiscal year 1995 funds received and obligated.  The main focus of  Framework 3 was conducting the 1995 Census Test, in order to select by  December 1995 the features to be used for the 2000 Census.  According to  census plans and our discussions with officials, the bureau focused on the  following major areas.
Complete preparation for the 1995 Census Test, conduct the test, and  begin evaluations in order to select the features to be used for the 2000  Census.  In addition, the bureau would conduct a full-scale census test  in four district office areas that would be the culmination of the  research and development program.
Investigate, develop, test, and evaluate components of a continuous  measurement system as a replacement for the 2000 Census sample data  questionnaire.
Develop, test, and evaluate various matching keys for the automated  and clerical matching and unduplicating systems developed under the  direction of the matching research and specifications working group.
Conduct activities independent of the research and development  program; these are preparatory activities required to implement the 2000  Census regardless of the design.  This included such activities as  planning the address list update activities as necessary to supplement  the Master Address File (MAF) for use in the 2000 Census and begin  initial planning of the field organization structure for the 2000 Census.
Recommend the broad scope of content that should be included in the  2000 Census questionnaire based on consulting with both federal and  nonfederal data users, and begin planning for small special purpose  tests to supplement or follow up on the 1995 Census Test.
section_title: Fiscal Year 1996 Funding
paragraphs: For fiscal year 1996, the Congress reduced the President’s Budget request  of $60.1 million for 2000 Census planning and development to $51.3  million, for a reduction of about 15 percent.  As a result of this $8.8 million  reduction, the bureau reduced funding for field data collection and support  systems by $9.9 million or 43 percent while increasing funding in other  areas.
In October 1995 we testified that the U.S. Census Bureau had decided to  make fundamental changes to the traditional census design such as  shortening census questionnaires, developing an accurate address list, and  sampling households that fail to respond to questionnaires.  However, we  noted that successful implementation of these changes would require  aggressive management by the bureau and that the window of opportunity  for the Congress to provide guidance on these changes and applicable  funding was closing.
A fiscal year 1996 conference report continued to express concern about  progress related to the next decennial census.  It cautioned the bureau that  the cost of the 2000 Census had to be kept in check and only through early  planning and decision making could costs be controlled.  The report further  recognized that fiscal year 1996 was a critical year in planning for the  decennial census, and that numerous decisions will be made and  preparations taken which will have a significant bearing on the overall cost  of conducting the census, as well as the design selected.
The bureau obligated the entire amount of its fiscal year 1996 funding  received of $51.3 million.  Beginning with fiscal year 1996, the number of  frameworks was reduced to eight as indicated in table 6 below.
For fiscal year 1996, the bureau experienced a 22 percent increase in its  funding received of $51.3 million over the $42.0 million for fiscal year 1995.   About 44 percent of the fiscal year 1996 funding was obligated for  personnel costs as a result of a 5 percent decrease in FTE staff from 685 in  fiscal year 1995 to 653 in fiscal year 1996 to work on decennial planning and  development issues.  Services, including consultants, accounted for about  13 percent of the obligations with the remaining 43 percent for space,  supplies, travel, and other costs.  Three frameworks incurred over 60  percent of funding received and obligated for the following.
Framework 3 - Field data collection and support systems incurred  costs of $13.3 million including $4.4 million to develop personnel and  administrative systems for field office enumeration; $3.1 million for  precensus day data collection activities; and $2.0 million for automation  acquisition and support for field offices.
Framework 2 - Data content and products incurred costs of $9.6  million including $4.4 million to develop and produce questionnaires  and public use forms for the census including conduct of a National  Content Test; $2.9 million for race and ethnicity testing of concepts and  respondent understanding and wording of the race and ethnicity  questions; and $1.6 million for continued work with federal and  nonfederal data users in the content determination process to prepare  for the congressional submission by April 1, 1997.
Framework 6 - Testing, evaluations, and dress rehearsals incurred  costs of $9.4 million including $3.3 million for an Integrated Coverage  Measurement (ICM) special test; $2.6 million for research and  development on sampling and sampling methods for the 2000 decennial  count; and $2.1 million for 1995 Census Test coverage and evaluation.
section_title: Fiscal Year 1997 Funding
paragraphs: For fiscal year 1997, the Congress reduced the President’s Budget request  of $105.9 million for 2000 Census planning and development to $86.4  million, for a reduction of about 18 percent.  As a result of this $19.5  million reduction, the bureau reduced funding for marketing,  communications, and partnerships by $14.4 million or 76 percent, and field  data collection and support systems by $23.6 million or 53 percent, while  increasing amounts in other areas by $18.5 million.
A fiscal year 1996 House Appropriation Committee report expressed  concern that the bureau appeared not to have developed options and  alternative plans to address issues of accuracy and cost.  In addition,  sufficient progress had not been made on issues the committee had  highlighted many times—the number of questions on the long-form and  reimbursement from other agencies for inclusion of such questions to  assure that the question is important.
The bureau obligated the entire amount of its fiscal year 1997 budget of  $86.4 million.  Planning continued in eight frameworks as indicated in table  7.
For fiscal year 1997, the bureau experienced a 68 percent increase in its  funding received of $86.4 million over the $51.3 million for fiscal year 1996.   About 63 percent of the fiscal year 1997 funding was obligated for  personnel costs as a result of a 36 percent increase in FTE staff from 653 in  fiscal year 1996 to 891 in fiscal year 1997 to work on decennial planning and  development issues.  Services, including consultants, accounted for about  25 percent of the obligations with the remaining 12 percent for space,  supplies, travel, and other costs.
The bureau viewed fiscal year 1997 as pivotal, since this was the year when  research and testing activities culminated into operational activities and  marked the end of the planning and development phase of the 2000 Census.   For the fiscal year, four frameworks incurred about 85 percent of funding  received and obligated as follows.
Framework 3 - Field data collection and support systems incurred $20.9  million for activities under precensus day operations and support systems,  and postcensus day operations.  Projects included:  $4.1 million for geographic patterns including questionnaire delivery  methodologies by area and corresponding automated control systems;  $4.0 million for planning of data collection efforts including activities for  truncation and/or the use of sampling for nonresponse follow-up and  increased efforts to develop procedures for enumerating special  populations such as the military, maritime, institutional, migrant,  reservation, and those living in other than traditional housing units;  $3.8 million for direction and control by 12 regional offices that would  provide logistical support and direct enumeration efforts by local  census offices; and   $3.1 million for planning and developing personnel and administrative  systems to support 2000 Census data collection and processing  activities, such as types of positions, pay rates, personnel and payroll  processes, and systems, space, and security requirements.
Framework 5 - Automation/telecommunication support incurred $20.2  million for activities to include evaluating proposals for the acquisition of  automation equipment and related services, funding the development of  prototype systems, and moving toward awarding contracts to implement  such systems for the 2000 Census.  Projects included setting up data  capture systems and support to process census questionnaire responses  and telecommunication systems required to provide nationwide toll-free  800 number services to answer respondent questions and to conduct  interviews.
Framework 6 - Testing, evaluation, and dress rehearsal incurred $19.8  million for the following activities:  $3.7 million to begin gearing up for the 1998 dress rehearsal in order to  prepare personnel to conduct the census testing efficiently and  effectively; and  $7.0 million to conduct activities for ICM special testing and American  Indian Reservation (AIR) test census such as  questionnaire delivery and mail return check-in operations,  ICM computer-assisted personal visit interviews,  computer and clerical matching,  follow-up and after follow-up matching, and  evaluation studies.
Framework 2 - Data content and products incurred $12.3 million for  activities related to the development of computer programs and systems  for data tabulation and for the production of paper, machine-readable, and  on-line data products.  Projects included:    $4.5 million to move from research in fiscal year 1996 to implementation  in fiscal year 1997 of the Data Access and Dissemination System  (DADs), including development of the requirements for Census 2000  tabulations from DADs, and development of computer programs and  control systems that will format the processed Census 2000 data for use  in DADs; and  $2.2 million towards development of a redistricting program for Census  2000.
section_title: Comments From the Department of Commerce
paragraphs: The following are GAO’s comments on the letter dated October 16, 2002,  from the Department of Commerce.
subsections: section_title: GAO Comments
paragraphs: 1. The objectives of our report did not include assessing the degree of  success of the 2000 Census. 2. See “Agency Comments and Our Evaluation” section of this report.
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