Climate Change: Observations on Federal Efforts to Adapt to a Changing Climate
Published: 2009-03-25T00:00:00

Fast Facts:

Highlights:
section_title: Why GAO Did This Study
paragraphs: Changes in the climate attributable to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases may have significant environmental and economic impacts in the United States. For example, climate change could threaten coastal areas with rising sea levels, alter agricultural productivity, and increase the intensity and frequency of floods and storms. Federal, state, and local agencies are tasked with a wide array of responsibilities that will be affected by a changing climate, such as managing natural resources. Furthermore, climate change could increase the cost of federal programs, such as crop and flood insurance, and place new stresses on infrastructure. Greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere will continue altering the climate system into the future regardless of emissions control efforts. Therefore, adaptation--defined as adjustments to natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate change--is an important part of the response to climate change. Today's testimony summarizes GAO's prior and ongoing work examining (1) actions that federal, state, local, and international authorities are taking to adapt to a changing climate, (2) the challenges that federal, state, and local officials face in their efforts to adapt, and (3) actions that the Congress and federal agencies could take to help address these challenges.
section_title: What GAO Found
paragraphs: Based on preliminary observations from GAO's ongoing adaptation work for the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, certain federal, state, local, and international government authorities are beginning to consider and implement climate change adaptation measures. Some federal programs are already helping officials make decisions in response to a changing climate. For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program supports climate change research to meet the adaptation-related information needs of decision makers and planners at the regional level. In addition, certain state, local, and international governments are developing and implementing climate change adaptation plans. For example, GAO's recent site visit to Maryland examined the state's comprehensive strategy for reducing vulnerability to climate change focused on sea level rise and coastal storms. As part of ongoing work for the Select Committee, GAO plans to conduct four additional site visits to learn from international, federal, and local adaptation efforts. Several of GAO's recent reports on climate change examined a number of challenges faced by government officials in their efforts to adapt. First, climate change is one of many priorities competing for attention and resources. Second, a lack of guidance can constrain the ability of officials to consider climate change in management and planning decisions. Third, insufficient site-specific data, including a lack of local projections of expected changes, can reduce the ability of officials to manage the effects of climate change on the resources they oversee. Fourth, officials are struggling to make decisions based on future climate scenarios that may not reflect past conditions. Our ongoing work seeks to identify other challenges warranting the attention of policymakers. Some of GAO's recent climate change-related reports offer clues on the types of actions federal agencies and the Congress could take to assist states and communities in their efforts to adapt. A recent GAO report on federal land management, for example, recommended that certain agencies develop guidance advising managers how to address the effects of climate change on the resources they manage. Furthermore, a recent GAO report on the economics of climate change identified actions the Congress and federal agencies could take, such as reforming insurance subsidy programs in areas vulnerable to hurricanes or flooding. GAO's current effort for the Select Committee, which focuses more directly on adaptation, will obtain information and perspectives from diverse groups of knowledgeable federal, state, and local officials, and in particular will seek to learn from the experience of practitioners on the front lines working to adapt to a changing climate. This work will be completed by late 2009.

section_title: Letter
paragraphs: I am pleased to be here today to provide observations on federal efforts to  adapt to a changing climate. Changes in the earth’s climate attributable to  increased concentrations of greenhouse gases may have significant  environmental and economic impacts in the United States and  internationally. Among other potential impacts, experts agree that climate  change could threaten coastal areas with rising sea levels, alter  agricultural productivity, and increase the intensity and frequency of  floods and tropical storms. Federal, state, and local agencies are tasked  with a wide array of responsibilities, such as managing natural resources,  that will be affected by a changing climate. Furthermore, climate change  has implications for the fiscal health of the federal government, affecting  federal crop and flood insurance programs, and placing new stresses on  infrastructure. The effects of increases in atmospheric concentrations of  greenhouse gases and temperature on ecosystems and economic growth  are expected to vary across regions, countries, and economic sectors (see  table 1).
Proposed responses to climate change include reducing greenhouse gas  emissions through regulation, the promotion of low-emissions  technologies, and adapting to the possible impacts by planning and  improving protective infrastructure. Thus far, government attention and  resources have been focused on emissions reductions options, climate  science research, and technology investment. In recent years, however,  climate change adaptation—adjustments to natural or human systems in  response to actual or expected climate change—has begun to receive  more attention because the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere  are expected to continue altering the climate system into the future  regardless of efforts to control emissions.
Policy makers are increasingly viewing adaptation as a risk-management  strategy to protect vulnerable sectors and communities that might be  affected by changes in the climate. It may be costly to raise river or coastal  dikes to protect communities and resources from sea level rise, build  higher bridges, or improve storm water systems. But there is a growing  recognition, in the United States and elsewhere, that the cost of inaction  could be greater.
My testimony today addresses (1) what actions federal, state, local, and  international authorities are taking to adapt to a changing climate, (2) the  challenges that federal, state, and local officials face in their efforts to  adapt, and (3) actions that the Congress and federal agencies could take to  help address these challenges. The information in this testimony is based  largely on prior GAO work, including recent reports on climate change on  federal lands, federal flood and crop insurance programs, and climate  change economics. In addition, certain information in this testimony was  gathered through interviews of knowledgeable stakeholders and review of  existing adaptation reports as part of our ongoing study of climate change  adaptation for the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global  Warming (Select Committee). We conducted our work in accordance with  GAO’s Quality Assurance Framework, which requires that we plan and  perform each engagement to obtain sufficient and appropriate evidence to  meet our stated objectives and to discuss any limitations in our work. We  believe that the information and data obtained, and the analyses  conducted, provided a reasonable basis for the findings and conclusions in  these reports.
subsections: section_title: Federal, State, Local, and International Efforts to Adapt to a Changing Climate
paragraphs: Based on preliminary observations from our ongoing adaptation work for  the Select Committee, certain federal, state, local, and international  government authorities are beginning to consider and implement climate  change adaptation measures. A range of federal activities are underway,  including efforts to provide information and guidance to decision makers.  Certain federal programs are already helping officials make decisions in  response to a changing climate. For example, two programs managed by  the Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric  Administration (NOAA) help policy makers and managers obtain the  information they need to adapt to a changing climate. NOAA’s Regional  Integrated Sciences and Assessments program supports climate change  research to meet the needs of decision makers and policy planners at the  regional level. Similarly, NOAA’s Sectoral Applications Research Program  is designed to help decision makers in different sectors, such as coastal  resource managers, use climate information to respond to and plan for  climate variability and change, among other goals. Other agencies— including the Department of the Interior’s (Interior) U.S. Geological  Survey and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration—also  manage programs to provide climate information to decision makers.
Federal resource management agencies are also taking steps to adapt to a  changing climate. For example, the United States Department of  Agriculture’s (USDA) Forest Service developed a strategic framework for  responding to climate change that recognizes the need to enhance the  capacity of forests and grasslands to adapt. In written testimony at a  March 3, 2009 hearing before the House Committee on Natural Resources,  Subcommittee on National Parks, Forests, and Public Lands, the Chief of  the Forest Service stated that dealing with risks and uncertainties  introduced or made worse by climate change will need to be a more  prominent part of the Forest Service’s management decision processes.  Similarly, Interior recognized a number of adaptation-related policy  options for land managers in reports produced for its Climate Change Task  Force. For example, the task force recognized the need to revise  management plans to reflect the effects of predicted climate conditions.
Other federal efforts are also attempting to link climate information with  the needs of decision makers. The Climate Change Science Program  (CCSP)—a multi-agency coordinating group that integrates federal  research on climate change—is in the process of developing a series of  “building blocks” that outline options for future climate change work,  including science to inform adaptation. The adaptation building block  includes support and guidance for federal, regional, and local efforts to  prepare for and respond to climate change, including characterizing the  need for adaptation, and developing, implementing, and evaluating  adaptation approaches. In addition, a recent CCSP report described  adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources on  federally owned and managed lands. Another example of federal efforts to  link climate information with the needs of decision makers is the  Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Climate Ready Estuaries  program to develop and implement adaptation strategies in coastal  communities.
While adaptation is one of many competing priorities for decision makers,  certain state, local, and international governments are nonetheless  developing and implementing climate change adaptation plans. For  example, we just completed a site visit exploring Maryland’s adaptation  initiatives. In August 2008, the state issued a comprehensive strategy for  reducing its vulnerability to climate change, focusing on sea level rise and  coastal storms. The state has completed an extensive mapping effort to  identify coastal vulnerability and has begun educating coastal counties  about changes that can be made to local ordinances to reduce coastal  erosion and increase resilience. Specifically, it provided guidance to three  coastal counties recommending changes to planning documents, buildings  codes, and local laws to address the risks resulting from sea level rise.  Two recent reports by non-government research groups summarize other  state and local adaptation planning efforts. As part of our ongoing work  for the Select Committee, we plan to further explore the Maryland  example and examine additional international, federal, and local  adaptation planning and implementation efforts through four more site  visits, including the United Kingdom, a federal land management unit, the  City of Chicago, and King County, Washington. These site visits will allow  us to identify and document how existing adaptation efforts were  developed and implemented. Further, site visits will help us identify the  information and other needs of decision-makers, how the federal  government is addressing these needs, and how these efforts can be  improved.
section_title: Challenges in Adapting to Climate Change
paragraphs: Several of our recent reports on climate change illustrate a number of  challenges faced by government officials when adapting to a changing  climate. Among them, (1) climate change is one of many competing  priorities for government officials, (2) a lack of guidance can constrain the  ability of officials to consider climate change in management and planning  decisions, (3) insufficient site-specific information can reduce the  capability of officials to manage the effects of climate change on the  resources they oversee, and (4) officials are struggling to make decisions  based on projected future climate scenarios that may not reflect past  conditions. Our ongoing work for the Select Committee will continue to  explore these and other challenges by obtaining information from a broad  range of federal, state, and local officials knowledgeable about climate  change adaptation.
Competing priorities. Our August 2007 report on climate change on federal  lands shows how climate change impacts compete for the attention of  decision makers with many more immediate priorities. The federal  government manages nearly 30 percent of the land in the United States.  Three federal agencies within Interior—the Bureau of Land Management,  U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the National Park Service—and USDA’s  Forest Service administer over 90 percent of these lands. NOAA  administers Marine Protected Areas. These agencies manage their  resources for a variety of purposes related to preservation; recreation; and  in some cases, resource use, yet each agency has distinct responsibilities  for the resources it administers. The agencies are generally authorized to  plan and manage for changes in resource conditions, regardless of the  cause that brings about the change. As such, federal resource management  agencies are generally authorized but not specifically required to address  changes in resource conditions resulting from climate change in their  actions and planning efforts.
The same report found that the resource management agencies we  reviewed did not at that time make climate change a priority, and that the  agencies’ strategic plans did not specifically address climate change.  Resource managers explained that they had a wide range of  responsibilities and that, because none of the agencies designated climate  change as a priority, they focused first on near-term activities that they  were specifically required to undertake, leaving less time and resources  for longer-term issues such as climate change. Resource managers told us  that climate change effects were typically not addressed in agency  planning activities. Although resource management agencies are now  beginning to consider climate change adaptation in planning decisions,  this example illustrates how other issues may overshadow climate change  adaptation if it is not explicitly designated as a priority.
Lack of guidance. Our August 2007 report also noted that resource  managers were constrained by limited guidance about whether or how to  address climate change and, therefore, were uncertain about what actions,  if any, they should take. In general, resource managers from all of the  agencies said that they needed specific guidance to incorporate climate  change into their management actions and planning efforts. For example,  officials from several federal land and water resource management  agencies said that guidance would help resolve differences in their  agencies about how to interpret broad resource management authorities  with respect to climate change and give them an imperative to take action.  While these agencies have started to issue guidance to resource managers,  this example shows how a lack of guidance can limit efforts to adapt.
Lack of site-specific information. Our report also demonstrated that  resource managers did not have sufficient site-specific information to plan  for and manage the effects of climate change on the federal resources they  oversee. In particular, the managers lacked computational models for local  projections of expected changes. For example, at that time, officials at the  Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary said that they lacked adequate  modeling and scientific information to enable managers to predict change  on a small scale, such as that occurring within the sanctuary. Without such  models, most of the managers’ options for dealing with climate change  were limited to reacting to already-observed effects on their units, making  it difficult to plan for future changes. Furthermore, these resource  managers generally lacked detailed inventories and monitoring systems to  provide them with an adequate baseline understanding of the plant and  animal species that existed on the resources they manage. Without such  information, it is difficult to determine whether observed changes are  within the normal range of variability.
Uncertainties in making decisions based on projected future conditions. A  recent report by the National Research Council (NRC) shows how officials  are struggling to make decisions based on future climate scenarios instead  of past climate conditions. According to the report, requested by EPA and  NOAA, government agencies, private organizations, and individuals whose  futures will be affected by climate change are unprepared both  conceptually and practically for meeting the challenges and opportunities  it presents. Many of their usual practices and decision rules (for building  bridges, implementing zoning rules, using private motor vehicles, and so  on) assume a stationary climate—a continuation of past climate  conditions, including similar patterns of variation and the same  probabilities of extreme events. According to the NRC, that assumption,  fundamental to the ways people and organizations make their choices, is  no longer valid. Climate change will create a novel and dynamic decision  environment.
Our own 2007 climate change-related report on the Federal Emergency  Management Agency’s (FEMA) National Flood Insurance Program, which  insures properties against flooding, and USDA’s Federal Crop Insurance  Corporation, which insures crops against drought or other weather  disasters, reached similar conclusions, highlighting how historical  information may no longer be a reliable guide for decision making.  Among other things, the report contrasted the experience of public and  private insurers. Many major private insurers were incorporating some  near-term elements of climate change into their risk management  practices. In addition, some private insurers were approaching climate  change at a strategic level by publishing reports outlining the potential  industry-wide impacts and strategies to proactively address the issue. This  more proactive view was recently echoed on March 17, 2009, by the  National Association of Insurance Commissioners, which adopted a  mandatory requirement that insurance companies disclose to regulators  the financial risks they face from climate change, as well as actions the  companies are taking to respond to those risks.
In contrast, our 2007 report noted that the agencies responsible for the  nation’s key federal insurance programs had done little to develop the kind  of information needed to understand their programs’ long-term exposure  to climate change for a variety of reasons. As a FEMA official explained,  the National Flood Insurance Program is designed to assess and insure  against current—not future—risks. Unlike the private sector, neither this  program nor the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation had conducted an  analysis to assess the potential impacts of an increase in the frequency or  severity of weather-related events on their operations over the near- or  long-term. Both FEMA and USDA have committed to study these issues  further and report to the Congress, with USDA estimating completion by  December 31, 2009.
Preliminary observations from our interviews with knowledgeable  stakeholders and review of existing adaptation reports confirm the  challenges discussed above, but also identify additional issues. For  example, certain documents we reviewed as part of our ongoing work for  the Select Committee identified the lack of public awareness about  adaptation as a challenge. Our continuing work will explore this issue  further and seek to identify other challenges warranting the attention of  policymakers by collecting information from diverse groups of  knowledgeable federal, state, and local officials.
section_title: Potential Adaptation Actions by the Congress and Federal Agencies
paragraphs: Some of our recent climate change-related reports offer clues on the types  of actions federal agencies and the Congress could take to assist states  and communities in their efforts to adapt to climate change. Our August  2007 report on federal land management, for example, recommended that  the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, and the Interior develop  guidance that advises resource managers on how to address climate  change effects and gather the information needed to do so. Our March  2007 report assessing the financial risks to federal insurance programs  found that their exposure to weather-related losses had grown  substantially and recommended that the Secretaries of Agriculture and  Homeland Security analyze the potential long-term fiscal implications of  climate change for the programs and report their findings to the Congress.
Our May 2008 report on the economics of climate change also identified  actions that could assist officials in their efforts to adapt to a changing  climate. Some of the economists surveyed for this report suggested, for  example, reforming insurance subsidy programs in areas vulnerable to  natural disasters like hurricanes or flooding. Several noted that a clear  federal role exists for certain sectors, such as water resource  management, which could require additional resources for infrastructure  development, research, and managing federal lands.
Our current effort for the Select Committee, focused more directly on  climate change adaptation than our prior reports, will provide additional  information and insights on the types of actions federal agencies and the  Congress could take to assist adaptation efforts. To date, several  interviews with knowledgeable stakeholders and evaluation of existing  adaptation reports suggested a need for improved coordination among  federal agencies and between federal, state, and local governments. Some  have also suggested the creation of a centralized government entity to  collect and share information about climate change impacts and  adaptation. We plan to explore these observations in greater detail by  obtaining information and perspectives from a wide range of  knowledgeable officials on the front lines of the nation’s efforts to adapt to  a changing climate. We expect to complete our ongoing work by late 2009.
Mr. Chairman, this concludes my prepared statement. I would be happy to  respond to any questions that you or other Members of the Subcommittee  may have at this time.
section_title: Contact and Staff Acknowledgments
paragraphs: Contact points for our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public  Affairs may be found on the last page of this statement. For further  information about this testimony, please contact John Stephenson,  Director, Natural Resources and Environment at (202) 512-3841 or  stephensonj@gao.gov. Key contributors to this statement were Steven  Elstein (Assistant Director), Ben Shouse, and Joe Thompson. Chuck  Bausell, Kate Cardamone, Cindy Gilbert, Richard P. Johnson, Kirsten  Lauber, Jeanette Soares, and Ruth Solomon also made important  contributions.
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