2010 Census: Preparations for the 2010 Census Underway, but Continued Oversight and Risk Management Are Critical
Published: 2007-07-17T00:00:00

Fast Facts:

Highlights:
section_title: Why GAO Did This Study
paragraphs: The decennial census is a Constitutionally-mandated activity that produces critical data used to apportion congressional seats, redraw congressional districts, and allocate billions of dollars in federal assistance. The Census Bureau (Bureau) estimates the 2010 Census will cost $11.3 billion, making it the most expensive in the nation's history after adjusting for inflation. This testimony, based primarily on GAO's issued reports and preliminary observations from our ongoing work, discusses the extent to which the Bureau has (1) developed a comprehensive project plan with the most current cost data; (2) incorporated lessons learned from Dress Rehearsal activities; (3) managed automation and technology for the reengineered census; and (4) planned for an accurate census in areas affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
section_title: What GAO Found
paragraphs: The Bureau is conducting its Dress Rehearsal of the 2010 Census, the last opportunity it will have to test its design under census-like conditions. Given the importance of a successful enumeration and the complexities of enumerating a hard-to-count population in a more technology-dependent census, our message remains that the risks associated with the decennial must be closely monitored, evaluated, and managed. GAO found that the Bureau is developing but has not yet completed a comprehensive project plan that includes milestones, itemized costs, and measurable goals, nor has it updated the 2010 life-cycle cost estimate to reflect current information from testing. Having a comprehensive project plan and updated cost information will allow the Bureau to manage the operations and cost of the decennial census. Moreover, GAO observed technical problems with the handheld computing devices used in the Dress Rehearsal by field staff for address canvassing (in which the Bureau verifies addresses). If the device does not function as expected or needed, little time will be left for the Bureau to take corrective action. In addition, during the LUCA Dress Rehearsal, the Bureau did not fully test software tools intended to reduce burden on participants. Also, the Bureau's level of reliance on automation and technology for the 2010 Census, at an estimated cost of $3 billion, makes effective contractor oversight (of cost, schedule, and technical performance) and risk management activities imperative. Finally, in the Gulf Coast Region, the condition of the changing housing stock is likely to present additional challenges for the address canvassing operation and subsequent operations. However, the Bureau has not finalized plans for modifying the address canvassing operation or subsequent operations in the Gulf Coast region.

section_title: Letter
paragraphs: Thank you for the opportunity to be here today to discuss the status of the  Census Bureau’s (Bureau) preparations for the 2010 Census. Our  testimony today is based on issued and ongoing work and addresses the  Bureau’s efforts to prepare for the next decennial census by (1) having a  strategic plan in place to help control costs; (2) incorporating lessons  learned from the 2008 Dress Rehearsal operation underway, including the  use of handheld computing devices; (3) managing automation and  technology that are an integral part of the reengineered census; and   (4) planning how to ensure an accurate population count in areas affected  by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
As you know, Mr. Chairman, the decennial census is a critical national  effort mandated by the Constitution. Census data are used to apportion  seats in the Congress, redraw congressional districts, allocate billions of  dollars in federal assistance to state and local governments, and for  numerous other public and private sector purposes. In addition, the  census is a complicated undertaking and a substantial investment,  requiring careful planning, risk management, and oversight to ensure its  ultimate success.  The Bureau estimates the 2010 Census will cost   $11.5 billion over its life cycle, making it the most expensive census in our  country’s history, even after adjusting for inflation.  For example, the  average cost per housing unit for 2010 is expected to increase by about 29  percent from 2000 levels (from $56 per housing unit to $72 per housing  unit in 2000 inflation-adjusted dollars). Since Census 2000, we have been  examining how the Bureau is preparing for the 2010 Census, including  incorporating lessons learned from the 2000 Census into its planning for  the 2010 decennial. Given the importance of a successful enumeration and  the complexities of enumerating a hard-to-count population in a more  technology-dependent census, our message remains that the risks  associated with the decennial must be closely monitored, evaluated, and  managed. We have long supported an approach to oversight that is timely,  rigorous, constructive, and holds the Bureau accountable to help ensure  that accurate results are delivered within projected costs.
Today’s hearing is particularly timely, as the Bureau has begun 2008 Dress  Rehearsal activities in California and North Carolina. Census Day for the  Dress Rehearsal is April 1, 2008. In concept, a Dress Rehearsal should be a  dry run of the full enumeration planned for 2010, and include the testing of  operations and procedures planned for the decennial census under as  close to census-like procedures as possible. If properly executed, the  Dress Rehearsal should serve as a tool to help the Bureau identify and  mitigate risk associated with the 2010 Census.
Thus, the Bureau is at an important point in planning and conducting the  2010 Census, as it begins the first operations for 2010 while continuing its  dry run of other operations. Sound risk management is important to a  successful census because many risks are interrelated, and a shortcoming  in one operation could cause other operations to spiral downward. We  would like to highlight several areas of risk that the Bureau needs to  manage to ensure its success. For example:    To provide the Congress, stakeholders, and others a clear picture of the  status of the 2010 Census operations and the likely cost, the Bureau needs  to complete its 2010 Census comprehensive project plan and update the  2010 life-cycle cost estimate to reflect current information from testing.
During recent Dress Rehearsal operations, we observed technical  problems with the handheld mobile computers the Bureau expects to use  for the 2010 Census. If the device does not function as expected or needed,  little time will be left for the Bureau to take corrective action. Further, in  the first operation of the Dress Rehearsal—the Local Update of Census  Addresses (LUCA)—the Bureau made some improvements over the  Census 2000 program; however, it did not fully test certain tools, such as  computer-based training and other new software, with potential users. It  will be important for the Bureau to complete such software testing.
Greater reliance on contractor-developed automation and technology for  the 2010 Census requires the Bureau to focus on sound acquisition and  management of these key investments.
Finally, because the changing housing stock may affect the Bureau’s  ability to effectively conduct address canvassing and other operations in  the Gulf Coast region, it is important for the Bureau to complete its  planning for addressing the challenges that the Bureau’s temporary field  staff would likely face in such hurricane-affected geographic areas.
Our remarks today are based primarily on reports that GAO issued from  2002 through June 2007 on the planning and development of the 2010  Census, as well as observations from our ongoing work on the  performance of the handheld mobile computing devices and the Bureau's  acquisition of monitoring of key automation and technology investments.  (Please see Related GAO Products page for a list of relevant reports.) In  addition to the Dress Rehearsal, the Bureau conducted several field tests  for its reengineered 2010 Census—including deployment of earlier  prototypes of handheld mobile computing devices. For the 2004 field test,  we visited Queens, New York, and several counties in rural south-central  Georgia. We visited the Texas and South Dakota test sites during the  Bureau’s 2006 field test. During these visits we observed several  operations including address canvassing and the nonresponse follow-up  operation. During the autumn of 2006, we observed the Local Update of  Census Addresses (LUCA) phase of the 2008 Dress Rehearsal in sites  located in North Carolina and California. In January 2007, we visited areas  in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas affected by Hurricanes Katrina and  Rita, and in June 2007 we observed the Bureau’s address canvassing  operation using the handheld devices at both of the Dress Rehearsal sites.  In regard to technology acquisition and contracts, we analyzed current  project and acquisition documents, including earned value management  data, and we interviewed Bureau officials and contractors. To determine  the status of risks and whether the Bureau is adequately managing risks,  we identified sound IT risk management processes from those developed  by the Software Engineering Institute and compared them to the Bureau’s  risk management practices for the selected projects. The areas examined  included risk preparation, risk identification and analyses, and risk  mitigation. We conducted our work in accordance with generally accepted  government auditing standards.
subsections: section_title: Background
paragraphs: The decennial census is the nation’s largest, most complex survey. To  conduct its decennial activities, the Bureau recruits, hires, and trains over  half a million field staff based out of local census offices nationwide,  temporarily making it one of the nation’s largest employers. The first  operation for the 2010 Census has already begun. Starting in January 2007,  the Bureau notified state and local governments that it would seek their  help in developing a complete address file through the Bureau’s LUCA  program. Address canvassing—a field operation to build a complete and  accurate address list in which census field workers go door to door  verifying and correcting addresses for all households and street features  contained on decennial maps—will begin in April 2009. One year later, the  Bureau will mail census questionnaires to the majority of the population in  anticipation of Census Day, April 1, 2010. Those households that do not  return their questionnaire will be contacted by census field workers during  the nonresponse follow-up operation to determine the number of people  living in the housing unit on Census Day, among other information.
In addition to these operations, the Bureau conducts other operations,  including gathering data from residents in group quarters such as prisons  or military bases. The Bureau also employs different enumeration methods  in certain settings, such as remote Alaska enumeration, in which people  living in inaccessible communities must be contacted in January 2010 in  anticipation of the spring thaw, which makes travel difficult, or  update/enumerate, a data collection method involving personal interviews  that is used in communities where many housing units may not have  typical house number–street name mailing addresses.
The decennial census is conducted against a backdrop of immutable  deadlines. The census’s elaborate chain of interrelated pre- and post- Census Day activities is predicated upon those dates. To meet these  mandated reporting requirements, census activities must occur at specific  times and in the proper sequence. The Secretary of Commerce is legally  required to (1) conduct the census on April 1 of the decennial year,   (2) report the state population counts to the President for purposes of  congressional apportionment by December 31 of the decennial year, and  (3) send population tabulations to the states for purposes of redistricting  no later than 1 year after the April 1 census date. (See table 1 for dates of  selected key decennial activities.)
The Bureau estimates that it will spend about $3 billion in information  technology investments to support collections, processing and  dissemination of census data and will be undertaking four major systems  acquisitions—totaling about $2 billion. The major acquisitions include the  Decennial Response Integration System (DRIS); Field Data Collection  Automation (FDCA) program, which includes the handheld mobile  computing devices to be used by the Bureau’s temporary field staff; Data  Access and Dissemination System (DADS II); and Master Address  File/Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing  Accuracy Improvement Project (MTAIP) system. The four systems were  planned to be available for the Dress Rehearsal so that their functionality  could be tested in an operational environment. (See table 2.)
In June 2005, we reported on the Bureau’s progress in five information  technology (IT) areas—investment management, systems  development/management, enterprise architecture management,  information security, and human capital. These areas are important  because they have substantial influence on the effectiveness of  organizational operations and, if applied effectively, can reduce the risk of  cost and schedule overruns, and performance shortfalls. We reported that,  while the Bureau had many practices in place, much remained to be done  to fully implement effective IT management capabilities. We made several  recommendations to improve the Bureau’s management.
Subsequently, in March 2006, we testified on the Bureau’s acquisition and  management of two key information technology system acquisitions for  the 2010 Census—FDCA and DRIS. We reported on the Bureau’s progress  in implementing acquisitions and management capabilities for these  initiatives. To effectively manage major IT programs, organizations should  use sound acquisition and management processes, minimize risk, and  thereby maximize chances for success. Such processes include project and  acquisition planning, solicitation, requirement development and  management, and risk management. We reported that, while the project  offices responsible for these two contracts have carried out initial  acquisition management activities, neither office had the full set of  capabilities they needed to effectively manage the acquisitions, including a  full risk management process. We also made recommendations for the  Bureau to implement key activities needed to effectively manage  acquisitions. The Bureau agreed with the recommendations but is still in  the process of implementing them.
section_title: 2010 Comprehensive Project Plan with Updated Cost Information Still Not Firm
paragraphs: Careful planning and monitoring are key to successfully managing a  complex undertaking such as the decennial census. In January 2004, we  recommended that the Bureau develop a comprehensive integrated  project plan. Specifically, we recommended that such a project plan be  updated as needed and include: (1) detailed milestones that identify all  significant interrelationships; (2) itemized estimated costs of each  component, including a sensitivity analysis, and an explanation of  significant changes in the assumptions on which these costs are based;   (3) key goals translated into measurable, operational terms to provide  meaningful guidance for planning and measuring progress; and (4) risk  and mitigation plans that fully address all significant potential risks. We  reported that although some of this information is available piecemeal, to  facilitate a thorough, independent review of the Bureau’s plans and hold  the agency accountable for results, having a single, comprehensive  document would be important. In May 2007, we met with Bureau officials  to discuss the status of the 2010 project plan. At that time officials  indicated that they planned to finalize the project plan over the next  several months. We look forward to reviewing the 2010 Census project  plan once it becomes available, and we will continue to monitor the  Bureau’s planning efforts.
Among the elements of that plan, we specifically recommended that the  Bureau itemize the then-estimated $11.3 billion in costs for completing key  activities for the upcoming decennial census. However, in June 2006  before this subcommittee, we testified that the Bureau’s $11.3 billion life- cycle cost estimate for the 2010 Census lacked timely and complete  supporting data. Specifically, the supporting data of the estimate were not  timely because the data did not contain the most current information from  testing and evaluation, and were not complete because sufficient  information on how changing assumptions could affect cost was not  provided.
In its Fiscal Year 2008 Budget Estimates, the Bureau updated its estimate  to about $11.5 billion.  According to Bureau documents, the estimated life- cycle cost for the entire 2010 Census remained relatively unchanged  between 2001, when the $11.3 billion estimate first was released, and 2006.
In our testimony last year, we noted that the September 2005 estimate was  based on assumptions made in 2001 that had not been borne out by  testing. One such assumption pertained to the testing of a new handheld  mobile computing device that is intended to automate and streamline  address canvassing, nonresponse follow-up, coverage measurement, and  payroll operations.  After its 2004 Census Test the Bureau found that local  office space and staff savings of 50 percent as a result of using the  handheld computers were not realized. Nonetheless, the 2005 estimate  continued to assume the 50 percent savings. In our view, revising cost  estimates with the most current information allows the Bureau to better  manage the cost of the census and make necessary resource trade-offs.  Most recently, the Bureau tested a new prototype of the handheld mobile  computing devices during the address canvassing operation of the 2008  Dress Rehearsal. This experience should provide the Bureau additional  data on productivity and space needs when using the new devices.
Table 3 shows the Bureau’s cost estimate released in June 2006. Based on  the table, most spending will occur between fiscal years 2008 through  2013.
Mr. Chairman, as you can see, given the projected increase in spending, it  will be imperative that the Bureau effectively manage the 2010 Census, as  the risk exists that the actual, final cost of the census could be  considerably higher than anticipated. Indeed, this was the case for the  2000 Census, when the Bureau’s initial cost projections proved to be too  low because of such factors as unforeseen operational problems or  changes to the fundamental design. For example, the Bureau estimated  that the 2000 Census would cost around $4 billion if sampling was used,  and a traditional census without sampling would cost around $5 billion.  However, the final price tag for the 2000 Census (without sampling) was  over $6.5 billion, a 30 percent increase in cost. Large federal deficits and  other fiscal challenges underscore the importance of managing the cost of  the census, while promoting an accurate, timely census.
At the request of the House Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee  on Commerce, Justice, Science and Related Agencies, we are reviewing  the life-cycle cost estimate of the 2010 Census to determine whether it is  comprehensive, credible, accurate, and adequately supported.
section_title: 2008 Dress Rehearsal Experience Points to Further Testing of Software for LUCA Operations
paragraphs: During the address canvassing phase of the 2008 Dress Rehearsal, the  Bureau tested a prototype of the handheld computers that it intends to use  for 2010. The devices are a keystone to the reengineered census because  they allow the Bureau to automate operations, and eliminate the need to  print millions of paper questionnaires and maps used by temporary field  staff to conduct address canvassing and nonresponse follow-up as well as  to manage the payroll for field staff. Automating operations allows the  Bureau to reduce the cost of operations; thus, it is critical that the risks  surrounding the use of the handheld devices be closely monitored and  effectively managed to ensure their success.
However, during the address canvassing phase of the 2008 Dress  Rehearsal, we observed some technical difficulties with the handheld  mobile computing device. We observed that it took an inordinate amount  of time for field staff using the handheld devices to link multiple units to  one mapspot, which occurs when listing units within apartment buildings.  In North Carolina, for example, we observed a field staffer take 2 hours to  verify 16 addresses in one apartment building. The device was also slow to  process addresses that were a part of a large assignment area. These  inefficiencies affect productivity and ultimately the cost of the census.  Over the next several weeks, we will be working with the Bureau to  understand the root cause of the problems we observed. Given the  lateness in the testing cycle, the Bureau now runs the risk that if problems  do emerge, little time will be left to develop, test, and incorporate  refinements to the handheld devices before 2010.
To date, the Bureau, in its 2008 Dress Rehearsal, has completed nearly all  LUCA activities, and while the Bureau has taken many steps to improve  LUCA since 2000, additional steps could be taken to address possible new  challenges. To reduce participant workload and burden, the Bureau  provided a longer period for reviewing and updating LUCA materials;  provided options for submitting materials for the LUCA program; and  created MAF/TIGER Partnership Software (MTPS), which is designed to  assist LUCA program participants in reviewing and updating address and  map data. This software will enable users to import address lists and maps  for comparison to the Bureau’s data and participate at the same time in  both the LUCA and another geographic program, the Boundary and  Annexation Survey. However, during the Dress Rehearsal, the Bureau  tested MTPS with only one local government. The Bureau also planned  improvements to LUCA by offering specialized workshops for  informational and technical training and supplementing the workshops  with new computer-based training. However, the Bureau did not test its  computer-based training software in the Dress Rehearsal. Properly  executed user-based methods for software testing can give the truest  estimate of the extent to which real users can employ a software  application effectively, efficiently, and satisfactorily. In June 2007, we  recommended the Bureau better assess the usability of the MTPS and test  the computer-based training software with local governments. The Bureau  has agreed to do so, and in August 2007 is expected to provide an action  plan for how it will implement this recommendation.
Additionally, not all participants will rely on the MTPS. For these  participants, the Bureau could do more to help them use their own  software. We found that participants in the LUCA Dress Rehearsal  experienced problems converting files from the Bureau’s format to their  respective applications; our survey of participants in the LUCA Dress  Rehearsal showed that the majority of respondents had, to some extent,  problems with file conversions to appropriate formats. For example, one  local official noted that it took him 2 days to determine how to convert the  Bureau’s files. At present, the Bureau does not know how many localities  that participate in LUCA will opt not to use MTPS, but those localities may  face the same challenges faced by participants in the LUCA Dress  Rehearsal. In response to our recommendations, the Bureau agreed to  disseminate instructions on file conversion on its Web site and provide  instructions to help-desk callers.
section_title: Bureau’s Plans for Greater Use of Automation and Technology Demand Greater Risk Management
paragraphs: The Bureau’s reengineered approach for the 2010 Census involves greater  use of automation, which offers the prospect of greater efficiency and  effectiveness; however, these actions also introduce new risks. The  automation of key census processes involves an extensive reliance on  contractors. Consequently, contract oversight and management become a  key challenge to a successful census. We are (1) determining the status  and plans for DRIS, FDCA, MTAIP, and DADS II (including cost, schedule,  and performance); and (2) assessing whether the bureau is adequately  managing risks associated with these key contracts including efforts to  integrate systems.   We are scheduled to report the results of our work by  September 2007. Effective risk management includes identifying and  analyzing risks, assigning resources, and developing risk mitigation plans  and milestones for key mitigation deliverables, briefing senior-level  managers on high-priority risks, and tracking risks to closure. Risk  management is an important project management discipline to ensure that  among other things, key technologies are delivered on time, within budget,  and with the promised functionality.
The Bureau has awarded three of four 2010 decennial census contracts:  MTAIP (June 2002), DRIS (October 2005), and FDCA (March 2006). For  DADS II, the Bureau delayed the contract award by 1 year (the contract is  now scheduled to be awarded in September 2007). In March 2006, Bureau  officials said that this 1-year delay occurred to gain a clearer sense of  budget priorities before initiating the request for proposal process.
Our preliminary results on the status and plans for the three awarded 2010  decennial census system contracts show that the contractors are making  mixed progress in meeting cost, schedule, and functional performance.  Specifically, the DRIS, FDCA, and MTAIP contractors are delivering  products on schedule. For example, as of March 2007, the MTAIP  contractor delivered 2,513 of the 3,232 improved county map files to the  Bureau’s repository of the location of every street, boundary, and other  map features (known as the TIGER database). In addition, the DRIS  contractor has delivered certain program management documents on  schedule, including the External Interface Control document, which  documents the interfaces between DRIS and the other 2010 Census  systems, such as FDCA. Also, the FDCA contractors provided the 1,400  handheld mobile computing devices on schedule for conducting the May  2007 address canvassing for the Dress Rehearsal sites in North Carolina  and California.
Concerning costs, two projects—DRIS and MTAIP—are in line with the  projected budget. For example, as of March 2007, of the $66 million  planned for DRIS during this period, the Bureau has obligated $37 million  and disbursed $19 million with the project 36 percent completed. Further,  our analyses of cost performance reports show no projected cost overrun  for DRIS by the 2008 Dress Rehearsal. However, the FDCA project is  projected to experience cost overruns by the 2008 Dress Rehearsal. Our  analyses of earned value management (EVM) data show a projected  FDCA cost overrun by between $17 million and $22 million, with the most  likely cost overrun being about $18 million. According to the contractor,  the overrun is occurring primarily due to the increase in system  requirements. We are concerned that this is an indication of additional  cost increases that are forthcoming, given requirements growth associated  with FDCA.
The Bureau has delayed delivering some key functionality that was  expected to be delivered for the Dress Rehearsal.  For example, some key  functionality expected to be delivered with DRIS contract including the  2010 Census telephone assistance system has been delayed until fiscal  year 2009. The Bureau has stated that it will not have a robust telephone  assistance system in place for the Dress Rehearsal. The Bureau has also  delayed selecting data capture center sites for the 2010 Census, building- out data capture facilities (including physical security, hardware,  furniture, and telecommunications), and recruiting and hiring data capture  center staff. According to the Bureau, this delay will affect areas, such as  hardware installation and staffing training.  Further, the Dress Rehearsal  will not include all collection forms for the 2010 Census. According to  project team officials, changes to the DRIS original functionality were due  to the Bureau’s fiscal year 2006 budget constraints, and therefore changed  their priorities for the 2008 Dress Rehearsal.
The importance of testing is particularly important, since systems and  functionality planned for the 2010 Census will not be available for the 2008  Dress Rehearsal. The Bureau has plans to conduct system tests, such as  the interfaces between FDCA and DRIS. The Bureau has not finalized  plans for other tests to be performed for the 2010 Census, such as end-to- end testing. End-to-end testing is performed to verify that a defined set of  interrelated systems that collectively support an organizational core  business function interoperate as intended in an operational environment.  The failure to conduct end-to-end testing increases the risks of systems  performance failure occurring during the 2010 Census operations.
Our preliminary results also show that the Bureau’s project teams have  made progress in risk management activities, but weaknesses remain.  According to the Software Engineering Institute’s (SEI) Capability  Maturity Model® Integration (CMMISM), the purpose of risk management is  to identify potential problems before they occur so that risk-handling  activities can be executed as needed to mitigate adverse impacts. Risk  management activities can be divided into key areas, including identifying  and analyzing risks, mitigating risks, and executive oversight. The  discipline of risk management is important to help ensure that projects are  delivered on time, within budget, and with the promised functionality. It is  especially important for the 2010 Census, given the immovable deadline.
Our preliminary results on the Bureau’s risk management processes show  that the project teams have performed many practices associated with  establishing sound and capable risk management processes. Specifically,  most of the projects (DRIS, FDCA, and DADS II) had developed a risk  management strategy to identify the methods or tools to be used for risk  identification, risk analysis and prioritization, and risk mitigation.  However, some projects did not fully identify risks, establish mitigation  plans that identified planned actions and milestones, and report risk status  to higher level officials.
All four projects were identifying and analyzing risks, but one project team  was not adequately performing this activity. As of May 2007, the most  significant risks for DRIS included the possibility of a continuing budget  resolution for fiscal year 2008, new system security regulations, and  disagreement between the Bureau and contractor on functionality  implementation. For FDCA, as of May 2007, the most significant risks  included insufficient funding, late development of training materials, and  untimely completion of IT Security Certification and Accreditation.  However, as part of our ongoing work, we question the completeness of  the reported risks. For example, although the FDCA project had  experienced a major increase in the number of requirements, the project  team did not identify this as a significant risk. In addition, the project  office did not identify any risks associated with using the handheld mobile  computing devices.
All four projects are developing risk mitigation plans as a response  strategy for the handling of risks, but three project teams (DADS II, FDCA,  and MTAIP) developed mitigation plans that were often untimely or had  incomplete activities and milestones. For example, although mitigation  plans were developed for all high-level risks, they did not always identify  milestones for implementing mitigating activities. In addition, the FDCA  project has yet to provide any evidence of mitigation plans to handle their  medium-level risks as described in their risk management strategy.
Two projects (MTAIP and FDCA) have yet to provide evidence that risks  were reported regularly to higher-level Department of Commerce and  Bureau officials.  For example, although both project teams had met with  Commerce and Bureau officials to discuss the status of the projects, the  meetings did not include discussions about the status of risks.
The failure to develop timely and complete mitigation plans increases the  project’s exposure to risks and reduces the project team’s ability to  effectively control and manage risks during the work effort. Further,  failure to report a project’s risks to higher level officials reduces the  visibility of risks to executives that should be playing a role in mitigating  them. Until the project teams implement effective and consistent risk  management processes, the Bureau faces increased risks that system  acquisition projects will incur cost overruns, schedule delays, and  performance shortfalls.
section_title: Bureau Is Designing Decennial Activities in the Geographic Area Affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, but Needs to Finalize Plans and Related Milestones
paragraphs: As part of our evaluation of the Bureau’s LUCA Dress Rehearsal, we  visited the localities along the Gulf Coast to assess the effect that  Hurricanes Katrina and Rita might have on decennial activities in these  geographic areas, and we found that the damage and devastation of these  hurricanes will likely affect the Bureau’s LUCA program and possibly  other operations. The Bureau has begun to take steps toward addressing  these issues by developing proposed actions. However, the Bureau has not  yet finalized plans and milestones related to changes in actions for  modifying address canvassing or subsequent operations in hurricane- affected areas.
In visiting localities along the Gulf Coast earlier this year, we observed  that the effects of the hurricanes are still visible throughout the Gulf Coast  region. Hurricane Katrina alone destroyed or made uninhabitable an  estimated 300,000 homes; in New Orleans, local officials reported that  Hurricane Katrina damaged an estimated 123,000 housing units. Such  changes in housing unit stock continue to present challenges to the  implementation of the 2010 LUCA Program and address canvassing  operations in the Gulf Coast region. Many officials of local governments  we visited in hurricane-affected areas said they have identified numerous  housing units that have been or will be demolished as a result of  Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and subsequent deterioration. Conversely,  many local governments estimate that there is new development of  housing units in their respective jurisdictions. The localities we  interviewed in the Gulf Coast region indicated that such changes in the  housing stock of their jurisdictions are unlikely to subside before local  governments begin reviewing and updating materials for the Bureau’s 2010  LUCA Program—in August 2007. As a result, local governments in  hurricane-affected areas may be unable to fully capture reliable  information about their address lists before the beginning of LUCA.
The mixed condition of the housing stock in the Gulf Coast could decrease  productivity rates during address canvassing. We observed that hurricane- affected areas have many neighborhoods with abandoned and vacant  properties mixed in with occupied housing units. Bureau field staff  conducting address canvassing in these areas may have decreased  productivity due to the additional time necessary to distinguish between  abandoned, vacant, and occupied housing units. We also observed many  areas where lots included a permanent structure with undetermined  occupancy as well as a trailer. Bureau field staff may be presented with the  challenge of determining whether a residence or a trailer (see fig. 1), or  both, are occupied. Another potential issue is that, due to continuing  changes in the condition in the housing stock, housing units that are  deemed uninhabitable during address canvassing may be occupied on  Census Day, April 1, 2010. Bureau officials said that they recognize there  are issues with identifying uninhabitable structures in hurricane-affected  zones. Further, workforce shortages may also pose significant problems  for the Bureau’s hiring efforts for address canvassing. The effects of  Hurricanes Katrina and Rita caused a major shift in population away from  the hurricane-affected areas, especially in Louisiana. This migration  displaced many low-wage workers. Should this continue, it could affect  the availability of such workers for address canvassing and other  decennial census operations.
In June 2006, we recommended that the Bureau develop plans (prior to the  start of the 2010 LUCA Program in August 2007) to assess whether new  procedures, additional resources, or local partnerships, may be required to  update the MAF/TIGER database along the Gulf Coast—in the areas  affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The Bureau consulted with state  and regional officials from the Gulf Coast on how to make LUCA as  successful as possible, and held additional promotional workshops for  geographic areas identified by the Bureau as needing additional  assistance.
The Bureau has also considered changes to address canvassing and  subsequent operations in the Gulf Coast region. For example, Bureau  officials stated that they recognize issues with identifying uninhabitable  structures in hurricane-affected zones and, as a result, that they may need  to change procedures for address canvassing. The Bureau is still  brainstorming ideas, including the possibility of using its  “Update/Enumerate” operation in areas along the Gulf Coast. Bureau  officials also said that they may adjust training for field staff conducting  address canvassing in hurricane-affected areas to help them distinguish  between abandoned, vacant, and occupied housing units. Without proper  training, field staff can make errors and will not operate as efficiently.
The Bureau’s plans for how it may adjust address canvassing operations in  the Gulf Coast region can also have implications for subsequent  operations. For example, instructing its field staff to be as inclusive as  possible in completing address canvassing could cause increased efforts to  contact nonrespondents because the Bureau could send questionnaires to  housing units that could be vacant on Census Day. In terms of the Bureau’s  workforce in the Gulf Coast region, Bureau officials also recognize the  potential difficulty of attracting field staff, and have recommended that the  Bureau be prepared to pay hourly wage rates for future decennial field  staff that are considerably higher than usual. However, Bureau officials  stated that there are “no concrete plans” to implement changes to address  canvassing or subsequent decennial operations in the Gulf Coast region.
Mr. Chairman, the Bureau faces formidable challenges in successfully  implementing a redesigned decennial. It must also overcome significant  challenges of a demographic and socioeconomic nature due to the nation’s  increasing diversity in language, ethnicity, households, and housing type,  as well a reluctance of the population to participate in the census. The  need to enumerate in the areas devastated by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita  is one more significant difficulty the Bureau faces. We have stated in the  past, and believe still, that the Bureau’s reengineering effort, if effectively  implemented, can help control costs and improve cost effectiveness and  efficiency. Yet, there is more that the Bureau can do in managing risks for  the 2010 Census.
The Dress Rehearsal represents a critical stage in preparing for Census  2010—a time when the Bureau’s plans will be tested as close to census-like  conditions as is possible. This is a time when the Congress, the  Department of Commerce, and others should have the information needed  to know how well the design is working. This is a time for making  transparent the risks that the Bureau must manage to ensure a successful  census. We have highlighted some of these risks today.
First, the Bureau’s planning and reporting of milestones and estimated  costs could be made more useful. Second, the performance of key  contractors needs more oversight. Third, the Bureau can build on lessons  learned early in the Dress Rehearsal by further testing new software that  will help localities participating in the LUCA program. The functionality  and usability of the handheld computing device—a key piece of hardware  in the reengineered census—also bears watching. If, after the 2008 Dress  Rehearsal, the handheld computers are found to not be reliable, the  Bureau could be faced with the remote but daunting possibility of having  to revert, in whole or in part, to the costly, paper-based census used in  2000.  Finally, the Bureau must complete plans for ensuring an accurate  population count in areas affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. All told,  these areas continue to call for risk mitigation plans by the Bureau and  careful monitoring and oversight by the Commerce Department, Office of  Management and Budget, the Congress, GAO, and other key stakeholders.  As in the past, we look forward to supporting this subcommittee’s  oversight efforts to promote a timely, complete, accurate, and cost- effective census.
Mr. Chairman that concludes our statement. We would be glad to answer  any questions you and the committee members may have.
section_title: Related GAO Products
paragraphs: 2010 Census: Census Bureau Is Making Progress on the Local Update of  Census Addresses Program, but Improvements Are Needed.  GAO-07- 1063T. Washington, D.C.: June 26, 2007.  2010 Census: Census Bureau Has Improved the Local Update of Census  Addresses Program, but Challenges Remain. GAO-07-736. Washington,  D.C.: June 14, 2007.  2010 Census: Census Bureau Should Refine Recruiting and Hiring  Efforts and Enhance Training of Temporary Field Staff.  GAO-07-361.  Washington, D.C.: April 27, 2007.  2010 Census: Design Shows Progress, but Managing Technology  Acquisitions, Temporary Field Staff, and Gulf Region Enumeration  Require Attention.   GAO-07-779T. Washington, D.C.: April 24, 2007.  2010 Census: Redesigned Approach Holds Promise, but Census Bureau  Needs to Annually Develop and Provide a Comprehensive Project Plan to  Monitor Costs. GAO-06-1009T. Washington, D.C.: July 27, 2006.  2010 Census: Census Bureau Needs to Take Prompt Actions to Resolve  Long-standing and Emerging Address and Mapping Challenges. GAO-06- 272. Washington, D.C.: June 15, 2006.  2010 Census: Costs and Risks Must be Closely Monitored and Evaluated  with Mitigation Plans in Place. GAO-06-822T. Washington, D.C.: June 6,  2006.  2010 Census: Census Bureau Generally Follows Selected Leading  Acquisition Planning Practices, but Continued Management Attentions  Is Needed to Help Ensure Success. GAO-06-277. Washington, D.C.: May 18,  2006.
Census Bureau: Important Activities for Improving Management of Key  2010 Decennial Acquisitions Remain to be Done. GAO-06-444T.  Washington, D.C.: March 1, 2006.  2010 Census: Planning and Testing Activities Are Making Progress.  GAO-06-465T. Washington, D.C.: March 1, 2006.
Information Technology Management: Census Bureau Has Implemented  Many Key Practices, but Additional Actions Are Needed. GAO-05-661.  Washington, D.C.: June 16, 2005.  2010 Census: Basic Design Has Potential, but Remaining Challenges  Need Prompt Resolution. GAO-05-09. Washington, D.C.: January 12, 2005.
Data Quality: Census Bureau Needs to Accelerate Efforts to Develop and  Implement Data Quality Review Standards. GAO-05-86. Washington,  D.C.: November 17, 2004.
Census 2000: Design Choices Contributed to Inaccuracies in Coverage  Evaluation Estimates. GAO-05-71. Washington, D.C.: November 12, 2004.
American Community Survey: Key Unresolved Issues. GAO-05-82.  Washington, D.C.: October 8, 2004.  2010 Census: Counting Americans Overseas as Part of the Decennial  Census Would Not Be Cost-Effective. GAO-04-898. Washington, D.C.:  August 19, 2004.  2010 Census: Overseas Enumeration Test Raises Need for Clear Policy  Direction. GAO-04-470. Washington, D.C.: May 21, 2004.  2010 Census: Cost and Design Issues Need to Be Addressed Soon. GAO- 04-37. Washington, D.C.: January 15, 2004.
Decennial Census: Lessons Learned for Locating and Counting Migrant  and Seasonal Farm Workers. GAO-03-605. Washington, D.C.: July 3, 2003.
Decennial Census: Methods for Collecting and Reporting Hispanic  Subgroup Data Need Refinement. GAO-03-228. Washington, D.C.: January  17, 2003.
Decennial Census: Methods for Collecting and Reporting Data on the  Homeless and Others Without Conventional Housing Need Refinement.  GAO-03-227. Washington, D.C.: January 17, 2003.  2000 Census: Lessons Learned for Planning a More Cost-Effective 2010  Census. GAO-03-40. Washington, D.C.: October 31, 2002.
The American Community Survey: Accuracy and Timeliness Issues.  GAO-02-956R. Washington, D.C.: September 30, 2002.
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