2010 Census: Design Shows Progress, but Managing Technology Acquisitions, Temporary Field Staff, and Gulf Region Enumeration Require Attention
Published: 2007-04-24T00:00:00

Fast Facts:

Highlights:
section_title: Why GAO Did This Study
paragraphs: The decennial census is a Constitutionally-mandated activity that produces data used to apportion congressional seats, redraw congressional districts, and allocate billions of dollars in federal assistance. The Census Bureau (Bureau) estimates the 2010 Census will cost $11.3 billion, making it the most expensive in the nation's history. This testimony discusses the Bureau's progress in preparing for the 2010 Census to (1) implement operations to increase the response rate and control costs; (2) use technology to increase productivity; (3) hire and train temporary staff; and (4) plan an accurate census in areas affected by hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The testimony is based on previously issued GAO reports and work nearing completion in which GAO observed recruiting, hiring, and training practices in the 2006 test, and visited localities that participated in the Local Update of Addresses Dress Rehearsal as well in the Gulf Coast region.
section_title: What GAO Found
paragraphs: The Bureau has made progress towards implementing a re-engineered census design that holds promise for increasing the response rate, thereby controlling the cost of the census while promoting accurate results. The re-engineered design includes a short form only census designed to increase the response rate by about 1 percent and a targeted second mailing, which is expected to increase response by between 7 to 10 percent. Both of these initiatives are new, have been tested, and will be a part of the 2010 Census design. According to Bureau officials, a 1 percent increase in the response rate can save $75 million, making these initiatives critical to the new design. Uncertainty surrounds a keystone to the reengineered census, the mobile computing device (MCD). The MCD allows the Bureau to automate operations and eliminate the need to print millions of paper questionnaires and maps used by census workers to conduct census operations and to assist in managing payroll. The MCD, tested in the 2004 and 2006 census tests, was found to be unreliable. While a contractor has developed a new version of the MCD, the device will not be field tested until next month, leaving little time to correct problems that might emerge during the 2008 Dress Rehearsal. The Bureau faces challenges in recruiting, hiring, and training an estimated 600,000 temporary employees. For example, opportunities exist for the Bureau to hone its recruiting efforts to identify individuals who would be more likely to be effective at census work and willing to work throughout an operation. Also, census workers indicated a need for additional training on reluctant respondents as well as location-specific challenges they encounter. The Bureau must also be prepared to accurately count the population affected by hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The Bureau has contacted local officials in the Gulf Area and is developing a plan that includes workshops and special staffing considerations.

section_title: Letter
paragraphs: Thank you for the opportunity to be here today to discuss the status of the  Census Bureau’s (Bureau) progress in preparing for the 2010 Census.  Based on issued and ongoing work, my testimony today addresses the  Bureau’s efforts to prepare for the next decennial by (1) implementing  operations designed to improve the completeness and accuracy of the  census as well as to increase response rate and hence control costs,   (2) using automation and technology to increase productivity,   (3) recruiting, hiring, and training peak temporary staff of about 600,000 in  2010 in a challenging environment, and (4) planning how to ensure an  accurate population count in areas affected by hurricanes Katrina and  Rita.
As you know, Mr. Chairman, the census is a critical national effort  mandated by the Constitution. Census data are used to apportion seats in  the Congress, redraw congressional districts, allocate billions of dollars in  federal assistance to state and local governments, and for numerous other  public and private sector purposes. In addition, the census is a  complicated undertaking and substantial investment, requiring careful  planning, risk management, and oversight to ensure its ultimate success.  The Bureau estimates the 2010 Census will cost $11.3 billion over its life- cycle, making it the most expensive census in our country’s history, even  after adjusting for inflation. Since the 2000 Census, we have been  examining how the Bureau is preparing for the 2010 Census, including  incorporating lessons learned from the 2000 Census into its planning for  the 2010 decennial. Given the importance of a successful enumeration, for  the last 3 decennials, we have supported an approach to oversight that is  timely, rigorous, constructive, and holds the Bureau accountable for  results.
Today’s hearing is particularly timely. The Bureau is now conducting the  2008 Dress Rehearsal’s Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA)  program, where local, state, and tribal governments are given the  opportunity to review and suggest changes to Census Bureau address lists  and maps. Beginning in early May 2007, the Bureau will deploy the hand- held mobile computing devices (MCDs)—a keystone to the reengineered  Census—to verify address data as part of the address canvassing portion  of the Dress Rehearsal. We plan to be on-hand to observe the functionality  and usability of the MCDs at the dress rehearsal sites in North Carolina  and California where the Bureau will conduct a dry run of the full  enumeration planned for 2010. “Census Day” for this exercise is April 1,  2008.
As we have testified in the past, the Bureau’s ongoing reengineering of the  decennial census—including changes in the survey design and greater use  of technology—could have important benefits in improved efficiencies and  cost-containment as well as the accuracy, quality, and consistency of data  collected. But these changes, as well as intervening events, raise new risks  that bear watching. Also, given the sheer size of census operations,  refinements to recruiting, hiring, and training can have substantial results.
In summary, our recent work on the reengineering of and preparations for  the 2010 decennial have yielded a number of observations about actions  the Bureau has taken to promote an accurate and cost-effective census.
The Bureau has taken steps to increase response rates through such  measures as moving to a short form, and utilizing a second mailing.
The MCD version being deployed during the upcoming dress rehearsal will  be used for the first time in the field—this is the prototype under contract  for the 2010 Census—and if it does not function as expected or needed,  little time will be left for the Bureau to take corrective action. Overall, the  Bureau’s greater reliance on contractor-developed automation and  technology for the 2010 Census call for greater focus on sound acquisition  and management of these key investments.
The Bureau’s efforts to recruit, hire, and train a sufficient workforce to  enumerate an increasingly hard-to-find and reluctant population in a more  technology-dependent census presents a unique challenge for the Bureau  to refine its recruiting practices and enhance its training.
The intervention of hurricanes Katrina and Rita have placed additional  demands on the Bureau to prepare for enumerating a large population  displaced by these devastating storms, in an environment in which local  governments’ capacities are constrained and physical infrastructure and  services have not yet returned to normal.
Given these complexities, our message remains that the risks associated  with the decennial must be closely monitored, evaluated, and managed,  with mitigation plans in place where appropriate, to help ensure that  accurate results are delivered on time and within projected costs.
My remarks today are based primarily on reports that we have issued from  2002 through July 2006 on the planning and development of the 2010  Census, as well as the results of work nearing completion. (Please see app.  I for a list of relevant reports.) For the 2004 field test, we visited Queens,  New York, and several counties in rural south-central Georgia. We visited  the Texas and South Dakota test sites during the 2006 field test. During  these visits we observed such operations as the address canvassing  operation—where workers go door to door verifying addresses and  updating maps as part of the Bureau’s effort to build a complete and  accurate address list, and we observed the non-response follow-up  operation (NRFU)—where enumerators collect information from those  households that do not return their initial questionnaire. We also observed  key recruiting, hiring, and training activities during the 2006 test  completed last summer. During the autumn of 2006, we observed  preparations for and the conduct of the Local Update of Census Addresses  (LUCA) phase of the 2008 Dress Rehearsal in sites located in North  Carolina and California, and in January 2007 we visited areas in Louisiana,  Mississippi, and Texas affected by hurricanes Katrina and Rita. We  conducted our work in accordance with generally accepted government  auditing standards.
subsections: section_title: Background
paragraphs: The decennial census is the nation’s largest, most complex survey. In April  2009, address canvassing—a field operation for verifying and correcting  addresses for all households and street features contained on decennial  maps—will begin. One year later, the Bureau will mail census  questionnaires to the majority of the population in anticipation of Census  Day, April 1, 2010. Those households who do not respond will be  contacted by field staff through the NRFU operation to determine the  number of people living in the house on Census Day, among other  information. In addition to address canvassing and NRFU, the Bureau  conducts other operations, for example, to gather data from residents  from group quarters, such as prisons or college dormitories. The Bureau  also employs different enumeration methods in certain settings, such as  remote Alaska enumeration, in which people living in inaccessible  communities must be contacted in January 2010 in anticipation of the  spring thaw which makes travel difficult, or update/enumerate, a data  collection method involving personal interviews, used in communities  where many housing units may not have typical house number-street name  mailing addresses. Further, the efforts of state and local government are  enlisted to obtain a more complete address file through the LUCA  program.
The census is also conducted against a backdrop of immutable deadlines,  and the census’s elaborate chain of interrelated pre- and post-Census Day  activities is predicated upon those dates. The Secretary of Commerce is  legally required to (1) conduct the census on April 1 of the decennial year,  (2) report the state population counts to the President for purposes of  congressional apportionment by December 31 of the decennial year, and  (3) send population tabulations to the states for purposes of redistricting  no later than 1 year after the April 1 census date. To meet these mandated  reporting requirements, census activities must occur at specific times and  in the proper sequence. The table below shows some dates for selected,  key decennial activities.
The Bureau estimates that the 2010 Census will cost $11.3 billion over its  life-cycle, making it the most expensive in the nation’s history. While some  cost growth is expected, partly because the number of housing units has  increased, the estimated cost escalation has far exceeded the housing unit  increase. The Bureau estimates that the number of housing units for the  2010 Census will increase by 10 percent over 2000 Census levels, but the  average 2010 cost to enumerate a housing unit is expected to increase by  about 29 percent from 2000 levels (from $56 to $72) (see fig. 1). As the  Bureau plans for 2010, maintaining cost effectiveness will be one of the  single greatest challenges confronting the agency.
According to the Bureau, the increasing cost of the census is caused by  various societal trends—such as increasing privacy concerns, more non- English speakers, and people residing in makeshift and other  nontraditional living arrangements—making it harder to find people and  get them to participate in the census.
section_title: The Bureau Has Taken Steps to Increase Response Rates
paragraphs: The Bureau has reengineered the decennial census, including  implementing new initiatives aimed at increasing the response rate.  Furthermore, the Bureau also plans to begin to implement its outreach and  communications campaign, an effort used in the 2000 Census that was  designed to increase awareness and encourage individuals to respond to  the census questionnaire. Increasing the decennial’s response rate can  result in significant savings because the Bureau can reduce the staffing  and costs related to NRFU, as well as yield more complete and accurate  data. According to the Bureau, for every one-percentage point increase in  the response rate, the Bureau will be able to save $75 million.
The Bureau plans to increase response rate by several means, including  conducting a short-form-only census. The Bureau is able to do this  because in 1996 the Bureau began efforts to replace the decennial long  form with the American Community Survey. Since 1970, the overall mail  response rate to the decennial census has been declining steadily, in part,  because of the burden of responding to the long form, which was sent to a  sample of respondents. In the 1980 Census, the overall mail response rate  was 75 percent, 3 percentage points lower than it was in the 1970 Census.  In the 1990 census, the mail response rate dropped to 65 percent but in  2000 appeared to be leveling off at about 64 percent. In the 2000 Census  when comparing the short form to the long form the Bureau found the  short form response rate of 66.4 percent was 12.5 percentage points higher  that the long form response rate of 53.9 percent. While the difference  between the long and short form response rates are significant, the Bureau  in its initial assumption for the 2010 Census predicted that conducting a  short-form-only census will yield only a 1-percent increase in the overall  mail response rate.
A targeted second mailing to households that fail to respond to the initial  census questionnaire can increase the ultimate response rate. According to  Bureau studies, sending a second questionnaire could yield a gain in  overall response of 7 to 10 percentage points from non-responding  households, thus potentially saving the Bureau between $525 million to  $700 million dollars (given that every 1 percentage point increase in  response may save $75 million). In reports, we have highlighted that a  targeted second mailing could boost the mail response rate, which in turn  would result in considerable savings by reducing the number of costly  personal visits enumerators would need to make to nonresponding  households. The Bureau has never before included this operation as part  of a decennial census and over the decade has been testing its feasibility. A  targeted second mailing was a part of 2006 test and boosted the response  rate by 8.8 percent at the Austin, Texas test site. According to Bureau  officials targeted second mailing will be a part of the 2010 Census design.
For the 2010 Census the Bureau also intends to increase response rates by  undertaking a public awareness campaign as it did in the previous census.  In the 2000 Census that effort was comprised of two major activities:    conducting the first-ever paid advertising campaign aimed at increasing  the mail response rate, including the historically undercounted  populations, and  leveraging the value of local knowledge by building 140,000 partnerships at  every level including state, local , and tribal governments; community- based organizations; and the media and private-sector organizations to  elicit public participation in the census.
In 2001 we reported that for the 2000 Census, it appeared that encouraging  people to respond to the census questionnaire was successful, in part due  to the Bureau’s partnership efforts. For example, according to the Bureau,  it achieved an initial mail response rate of about 64 percent, 3 percentage  points higher that it had anticipated when planning for NRFU. This was a  noteworthy accomplishment and, as a result, the Bureau had over 3  million fewer housing units to follow-up with than it had initially planned.
The Bureau will soon begin its outreach and communication effort for  2010. The Bureau plans to award the communications contract in August  2007 and will begin hiring partnership specialists at headquarters starting  in fiscal year 2008.
section_title: The Bureau’s Plans for Greater Use of Automation and Technology Demand Greater Risk Management
paragraphs: The MCD is a keystone to the reengineered census. It allows the Bureau to  automate operations and eliminate the need to print millions of paper  questionnaires and maps used by census workers to conduct address  canvassing and NRFU, as well as assisting to manage field staff’s payroll.  The benefits of using the MCD were tested in the 2004 and 2006 tests.  According to the Bureau, during the 2004 Census Test, the MCD allowed  the Bureau to successfully remove over 7,000 late mail returns from  enumerators’ assignments, reducing the total NRFU workload by nearly 6  percent. The ability to remove late mail returns from the Bureau’s NRFU  workload reduces costs, because census field workers no longer need to  make expensive follow-up visits to households that return their  questionnaire after the mail-back deadline. If the Bureau had possessed  this capability during the 2000 Census, it could have eliminated the need to  visit nearly 773,000 late-responding households and saved an estimated  $22 million (based on our estimate that a 1-percentage-point increase in  workload could add at least $34 million in direct salary, benefits, and  travel costs to the price tag of NRFU).
However, the Bureau’s ability to collect and transmit data using the MCD  is not fully tested and, at this point, constitutes a risk to the cost-effective  implementation of the 2010 Census. During the 2004 test of NRFU and the  2006 test of address canvassing, the MCDs experienced significant  reliability problems. For example, during the 2004 Census Test, the MCDs  experienced transmission problems, memory overloads, and difficulties  with a mapping feature—all of which added inefficiencies to the NRFU  operation. Moreover, during the 2006 test, the MCD’s global positioning  system (GPS) receiver, a satellite-based navigational system to help  workers locate street addresses and collect coordinates for each structure  in their assignment area, was also unreliable.
Bureau officials believe the MCD’s performance problems will be  addressed through a contract awarded on March 30, 2006, to develop a  new MCD. A prototype of the MCD has been developed and delivered by  the contractor for use in the 2008 Dress Rehearsal. However, operational  testing of the MCD will not occur until May 2007, when address canvassing  for the 2008 Dress Rehearsal occurs, and if problems do emerge, little time  will be left to develop, test, and incorporate refinements. In our May 2006  report, we highlighted the tight time frames to develop the MCD and  recommended that systems being developed or provided by contractors  for the 2010 Census—including the MCD—be fully functional and ready to  be assessed as part of the 2008 Dress Rehearsal. We are currently  reviewing the cost, schedule and performance status of the contract for  the MCDs.
We plan to visit the dress rehearsal sites to determine the functionality of  the devices to collect and transmit data. If after the 2008 Dress Rehearsal  the MCD is found not to be reliable, the Bureau could be faced with the  daunting possibility of having to revert to the costly, paper-based census  used in 2000.
Although the greater use of automation offers the prospect of greater  efficiency and effectiveness, these actions also introduce new risks. The  automation of key census processes involves an extensive reliance on  contractors. Consequently, contract oversight and management becomes a  key challenge to a successful census. As part of the Bureau’s plans to  increase the use of automation and technology for the 2010 Census, the  Bureau estimates that it will spend about $ 3 billion on information  technology (IT) investments. The Bureau will be undertaking several  major acquisitions, including the Decennial Response Integration System  (DRIS)—a system for integrating paper and telephone responses; the Field  Data Collection Automation (FDCA) program—the systems and support  equipment for field office data collection activities including the MCDs to  be used by enumerators; the Data Access and Dissemination System  (DADS II)—a system for tabulating and disseminating data from the  decennial census and other Bureau surveys to the public; and the  modernization of the Master Address File/Topologically Integrated  Geographic Encoding and Referencing (MAF/TIGER) system, which  provides the address list, maps, and other geographic support services for  the decennial and other Bureau surveys, known as the MAF/TIGER  Accuracy Improvement Project (MTAIP). Together these and other  systems are to support collection, processing, and dissemination of census  data.
In March 2006, we testified on the Bureau’s acquisition and management of  two key information technology system acquisitions for the 2010 Census— FDCA and the DRIS. We reported on the Bureau’s progress in  implementing acquisitions and management capabilities for these  initiatives. To effectively manage major IT programs, organizations should  use sound acquisition and management processes to minimize risk and  thereby maximize chances for success. Such processes include project and  acquisition planning, solicitation, requirement development and  management, and risk management. We reported that while the project  offices responsible for these two contracts have carried out initial  acquisition management activities, neither office had the full set of  capabilities they needed to effectively manage the acquisitions, including  implementing a full risk management process. We also made  recommendations for the Bureau to implement key activities needed to  effectively manage acquisitions. For example, we recommended that the  Bureau’s project office for DRIS complete a project plan and obtain  stakeholder concurrence before initiating additional development work  and obtain validation, management, and customer approval of DRIS  requirements. In response to our recommendation, the Bureau has  finalized the project plan for DRIS and has obtained stakeholders’  commitment. As a result, the DRIS project office will have the direction  that it needs to successfully avoid unanticipated changes.
section_title: The Bureau Can Improve Its Recruiting, Hiring, and Training Efforts
paragraphs: Prior to Census Day, Bureau field staff  perform the address canvassing  operation, during which they verify the addresses of all housing units. The  Bureau estimates spending $350 million to hire about 74,000 field workers  for the address canvassing operation. About 1 year later, the Bureau mails  out questionnaires to about 130 million households nationwide. However,  the Bureau expects that about 40 million households will not return the  questionnaire. To collect information from those households, the Bureau  hires temporary field staff—based out of local census offices—to visit  each nonresponding household in its NRFU operation. The Bureau  expects to spend over $2 billion to employ about 525,000 temporary field  staff for that activity. As shown in fig. 2, in total the Bureau will recruit and  test 3.8 million applicants for addressing canvassing and NRFU, hiring  some 600,000 people for the 2010 Census.
subsections: section_title: The Bureau Can Refine Its Approach to Recruiting and Hiring Temporary Field Staff
paragraphs: For the 2010 Census, the Bureau plans to use a similar approach to recruit  and hire workers as it used during Census 2000. These strategies made the  Bureau a more attractive employer to prospective candidates and helped  provide a steady stream of applicants during Census 2000. Despite a tight  labor market, the Bureau attracted about 3.7 million qualified applicants  and hired about half a million enumerators at peak. Some of the broad  approaches from 2000 that the Bureau plans on implementing for the 2010  census include  recruiting five times more applicants than the needed number of field  workers to ensure a considerable depth in the applicant pool from which  to hire;  “frontloading” or hiring twice the number of people needed to do the work  in anticipation of high levels of turnover;    exercising the flexibility to raise pay rates for local census offices that  were encountering recruiting difficulties; and  launching a recruitment advertising campaign, which totaled over $2.3  million for Census 2000.
As in 2000, the Bureau faces the daunting tasks of meeting its recruiting  and hiring goals. However, it also faces additional challenges, such as  demographic shifts whereby the population is increasingly diverse and  difficult to locate, and newer challenges, like the Bureau’s use of handheld  computers for data collection in the field. It does plan some improvements  to how it recruits and hires its temporary workforce to carry out the 2010  Census. For example, the Bureau has conducted and incorporated  information collected from employee debriefings that could improve its  recruiting and hiring processes. Bureau officials believe this feedback  would be helpful in evaluating and refining its hiring and recruiting  processes and intend to incorporate some of that information for the 2008  Dress Rehearsal. However, it can do more to target its recruitment of field  staff.
The Bureau casts a wide net to recruit its temporary workforce to ensure  it has a large enough applicant pool from which to hire. In commenting on  a draft of this work, Commerce noted that the Bureau’s priority is to reach  out as broadly a possible to the diverse communities in the county to  attract several million applicants. We recognize that when recruiting and  hiring for hundreds of thousands of positions, the Bureau faces a  challenge in assessing applicants’ potential success or willingness to work.  However, opportunities exist for the Bureau to hone its recruiting efforts  to identify individuals who would be more likely to be effective at census  work and willing to continue working throughout an operation. Along  those same lines, the Bureau could also evaluate the factors associated  with an applicant’s success, willingness to work in an operation, and  likelihood of attrition to refine its hiring. Despite Commerce’s reservations  about refining its current recruiting and hiring strategies, we believe that  the Bureau could do more to understand what makes for a successful  recruit and, by hiring such applicants, reduce operating costs.
Another recruiting and hiring issue we identified in our completed work is  related to how the crew leaders are selected. We found that the Bureau’s  tools for hiring crew leaders could better distinguish the skills needed for  those positions. Crew leaders fill an important role in the Bureau’s field  activities because they supervise the work of crews of field workers; train  field workers; and will be counted on to troubleshoot the MCDs. We found  that despite the different skill requirements of crew leaders and other field  staff—for example, while it was important for field staff working in the  NRFU operation to have arithmetic and visual identification skills, crew  leaders need those skills as well as additional skills, such as management,  leadership, and creative thinking—the Bureau used the same set of hiring  tools to hire individuals for crew leaders and other field positions during  the 2006 Census Test. In its review of the 2004 Census Test, the  Department of Commerce Office of Inspector General OIG also reported  that Bureau officials said that the applicants’ the multiple-choice test does  not capture the technical or supervisory skills needed by crew leaders.
The Bureau hired a contractor to assess whether the tools used during the  2006 Census Test selected individuals with the skills necessary to conduct  field work using MCDs; however, the Bureau has no current plans to  make changes to its hiring process that would include differentiated hiring  tools for crew leaders and other positions. Without hiring tools that  distinguish between skills needed for the crew leader and other positions,  the Bureau does not have assurances that it is selecting crew leaders that  can best perform important duties like providing training, managing other  field staff, and troubleshooting handheld computers. In commenting on  our draft, Commerce indicated that the Bureau needs to evaluate its hiring  tools. It is also working to identify and test what the appropriate skills are  for the crew leader position.
Finally, we found that the Bureau does not collect performance data  needed to rehire former workers from prior or ongoing operations to  whom it may give hiring priority. Officials say they try to exclude those  terminated for cause (such terminations can result when workers have  performance or conduct problems such as selling drugs or striking another  worker). Bureau officials point to its internal systems, which, they say  preclude the rehiring of employees who were terminated for cause.  However, the OIG and field officials told us that poor performers may not  always be terminated. Without better information on employee  performance, the Bureau cannot ensure that the weakest performers are  not rehired. Over the course of the 2006 Census Test, almost 15 percent of  all field staff were rehired. If this percentage were to be rehired during the  2010 Census, the Bureau would not have performance data to  meaningfully evaluate whether to rehire approximately 90,000 individuals.  The Bureau believes that the pace of the decennial, particularly NRFU, is  such that local census officials would not have enough time to consider  past performance when making hiring decisions. However, we believe that  the Bureau has enough time. For example, performance data could be  collected during address canvassing to be used to assess workers for  NRFU, nearly one-year later.
section_title: Opportunities Exist for the Bureau to Improve Training for Field Staff
paragraphs: The Bureau has employed essentially the same approach to training since  the 1970 Census. To conduct training, the Bureau solicits free or low-cost  training spaces from local organizations, such as churches or libraries.  Training classes typically include 15 to 20 students. Crew leaders usually  train their crews, with the assistance of at least one crew leader assistant,  using a verbatim training approach, whereby crew leaders read training  scripts word-for-word over the course of several days. Similarly, the crew  leaders were themselves trained by their supervisors in a “train-the- trainers” approach. The length of training varies by operation; for NRFU,  training took almost 42 hours over the course of 6 days during the 2006  test.
The Bureau and others, including us, have reported that the Bureau should  consider alternate approaches to training delivery. Our review of the 2004  Census Test found that, as a result of the demographic and technological  changes that have taken place since 1970, the Bureau might want to  explore alternatives to its verbatim approach to training. Moreover, in  2004, the OIG suggested the Bureau explore the use of interactive training  methods, as the Bureau does for other non-decennial surveys. For  example, while many field staff we contacted during the 2006 test said  their overall impression of training was generally positive, many added  that videos or visuals would or might improve training. In addition, while  the Bureau is providing some computer-based training on using the  handheld computers in key operations, overall the Bureau has made  limited changes to the approach it uses to deliver training and has not  evaluated alternative approaches to providing training. It is notable that  observations during the 2004 and 2006 tests showed that field staff may  have missed important parts of training. Contractor employees saw  students playing games on their MCDs during training for the 2006 test,  and in 2004 the OIG saw students not paying attention and falling asleep in  class, concluding that some may not have learned how to conduct census  operations.
The content of the Bureau’s training for field staff also has not changed  substantially since Census 2000, despite the fact that, according to the  Bureau itself, collecting data from the nation’s population has become  increasingly difficult. Field workers we spoke to during the 2006 test noted  two related issues on which they had not received sufficient training— dealing with reluctant respondents and handling location-specific  challenges.
According to the Department of Commerce OIG, in 2004 field staff  complained that they felt unprepared to deal with reluctant respondents;  the OIG report recommended the Bureau consider adding content to  enhance training on this topic. Moreover, our review of the Bureau’s  summaries of debriefings it conducted after the 2006 test indicated that  field staff found respondent reluctance to be a challenge. Crew leaders  noted that this was the most difficult task enumerators faced. In our field  visits, we observed that without adequate preparation in dealing with  reluctant responders, field staff developed their own strategies when  confronted with these situations, resulting in inconsistent and sometimes  inappropriate data collection methods. For example, when unable to  contact respondents, one Texas enumerator looked up respondent  information online, tried to find a phone number for another respondent  from a neighborhood cat’s collar, and illegally went through residents’  mail.
Field staff may also need more training in overcoming location-specific  challenges, such as rural conditions on the Cheyenne River Indian  Reservation in South Dakota; and counting the transient student  population in Austin, Texas. For example, in Austin, one crew leader  explained that training spent a lot of time on mobile homes—which did  not exist in his area—but very little time on apartment buildings, which  are common there. Based on our observations of the 2004 test, we  suggested that the Bureau supplement the existing training with modules  geared toward addressing the particular enumeration challenges that field  staff are likely to encounter in specific locales. During this review, the  Bureau told us that it works with regional offices to develop 10-minute  training modules for specific locations. For example, in 2000, Bureau  officials said enumerators in Los Angeles were trained to look for small,  hidden housing units, such as apartments in converted garages. Bureau  officials said they provide guidance on the length of the modules and when  they should be presented. However, they said they were not sure how  often this kind of specialized training took place, nor had they allocated  time during training to present specialized information.
We believe the Bureau could do more to assist local offices provide  training that recognizes local conditions. Specifically, based on work we  will be reporting shortly, we will recommend that the Bureau centrally  develop training modules covering enumeration strategies in a variety of  situations, such as mobile homes, large apartment buildings, and migrant  worker dwellings, which local officials can selectively insert into their  training if there is a need to train their field staff on that topic. Such  modules would enhance the effectiveness of training by giving greater  attention to the challenges field staff are likely to face. In commenting on  this recommendation, Commerce noted that the Bureau works with  managers in each regional census center to customize a location-specific  training module for local census offices. Nonetheless, developing modules  for different types of locations centrally would allow the Bureau to control  the consistency and quality of training throughout the nation.
section_title: Bureau Is Designing Decennial Activities in the Geographic Area Affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita
paragraphs: As part of our evaluation of the Bureau’s LUCA dress rehearsal, we visited  the localities along the Gulf Coast to assess the effect the devastation  caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita might have on LUCA and possibly  other operations. The effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita are still  visible throughout the Gulf Coast region. Hurricane Katrina alone  destroyed or made uninhabitable an estimated 300,000 homes; in New  Orleans, local officials reported that Hurricane Katrina damaged an  estimated 123,000 housing units. Such changes in housing unit stock  continue to present challenges to the implementation of the 2010 LUCA  Program in the Gulf Coast region and possibly other operations. Many  officials of local governments we visited in hurricane-affected areas said  they have identified numerous housing units that have been or will be  demolished as a result of hurricanes Katrina and Rita and subsequent  deterioration. Conversely, many local governments estimate that there is  new development of housing units in their respective jurisdictions. The  localities we interviewed in the Gulf Coast region indicated that such  changes in the housing stock of their jurisdictions are unlikely to subside  before local governments begin reviewing and updating materials for the  Bureau’s 2010 LUCA Program—in August 2007. Local government  officials told us that changes in housing unit stock are often caused by  difficulties families have in deciding whether to return to hurricane- affected areas. Local officials informed us that a family’s decision to return  is affected by various factors, such as the availability of insurance; timing  of funding from Louisiana’s “Road Home” program; lack of availability of  contractors; school systems that are closed; and lack of amenities such as  grocery stores. As a result of the still changing housing unit stock, local  governments in hurricane-affected areas may be unable to fully capture  reliable information about their address lists before the beginning of LUCA  this year or address canvassing in April 2009. Furthermore, operation of  local governments themselves has been affected by the hurricanes (see fig.  3). These local governments are focused on reconstruction and at least  two localities we spoke to questioned their ability to participate in LUCA.
The mixed condition of the housing stock in the Gulf Coast will increase  the Bureau’s address canvassing workload. During our field work, we  found that hurricane-affected areas have many neighborhoods with  abandoned and vacant properties mixed in with occupied housing units.  Bureau staff conducting address canvassing in these areas may have an  increased workload due to the additional time necessary to distinguish  between abandoned, vacant and occupied housing units. Another potential  issue is that due to continuing changes in the condition in the housing  stock, housing units that are deemed vacant or abandoned during address  canvassing may be occupied on Census Day (Apr. 1, 2010). Bureau  officials said that they recognize there are issues with uninhabitable  structures in hurricane-affected zones. They noted that addresses marked  as vacant or uninhabitable during address canvassing in the Gulf Coast  region will not be deleted from the MAF, and said that they may adjust  training for Bureau staff in hurricane-affected areas.
Workforce shortages may also pose significant problems for the Bureau’s  hiring efforts for address canvassing. The effects of hurricanes Katrina and  Rita caused a major shift in population away from the hurricane-affected  areas, especially in Louisiana. This migration displaced many low-wage  workers. Should this continue, it could affect the availability of such  workers for address canvassing and other decennial census operations.  Bureau officials recognize the potential difficulty of attracting these  workers, and have recommended that the Bureau be prepared to meet  hourly wage rates for future decennial staff that are considerably higher  than usual. It has noted that its Dallas regional office, which has  jurisdiction over hurricane-affected areas in Texas, Louisiana, and  Mississippi, will examine local unemployment rates to adjust pay rates in  the region, and use “every single entity” available to advertise for workers  in the New Orleans area.
Early in 2006, we recommended that the Bureau develop plans (prior to  the start of the 2010 LUCA Program in August 2007) to assess whether new  procedures, additional resources, or local partnerships, may be required to  update the MAF/TIGER database along the Gulf Coast—in the areas  affected by hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The Bureau responded to our  recommendations by chartering a team to assess the effect of the storm  damage on the Bureau’s address list and maps for areas along the Gulf  Coast and develop strategies with the potential to mitigate these effects.  The chartered team recommended that the Bureau consult with state and  regional officials (from the Gulf Coast) on how to make LUCA as  successful as possible, and hold special LUCA workshops for geographic  areas identified by the Bureau as needing additional assistance. While the  Bureau (through its chartered team, headquarters staff and Dallas regional  office) has proposed several changes to the 2010 LUCA Program for the  Gulf Coast region, there are no specific plans for implementing the  proposed changes.
In summary, Mr. Chairman, we recognize the Bureau faces formidable  challenges in successfully implementing a redesigned decennial census. It  must also overcome significant challenges of a demographic and  socioeconomic nature due to the nation’s increasing diversity in language,  ethnicity, households, and housing type, as well as an increase in the  reluctance of the population to participate in the census. The need to  enumerate in the areas devastated by hurricanes Katrina and Rita is one  more significant difficulty the Bureau faces. We applaud the moves the  Bureau has undertaken to redesign the census; we have stated in the past,  and believe still, that the reengineering, if successful, can help control  costs and improve cost effectiveness and efficiency. Yet, there is more that  the Bureau can do in examining and refining its recruiting, hiring, and  training practices and in preparing to enumerate in the hurricane-affected  areas. Also, the functionality and usability of the MCD—a key piece of  hardware in the reengineered census—-bears watching as does the  oversight and management of information technology investments. All  told, these areas continue to call for risk mitigation plans by the Bureau  and careful monitoring and oversight by the Commerce Department, the  Office of Management and Budget, the Congress, GAO, and other key  stakeholders. As in the past, we look forward to supporting this  subcommittee’s oversight efforts to promote a timely, complete, accurate,  and cost-effective census.
section_title: Contact and Acknowledgments
paragraphs: For further information regarding this testimony, please contact   Mathew J. Scire on (202) 512-6806, or by email at sciremj@gao.gov.
Individuals making contributions to this testimony included Betty Clark,  Carlos Hazera, Shirley Hwang, Andrea Levine, Lisa Pearson, Mark Ryan,  Niti Tandon, and Timothy Wexler.
section_title: Appendix I: Related GAO Products
paragraphs: 2010 Census: Redesigned Approach Holds Promise, but Census Bureau  Needs to Annually Develop and Provide a Comprehensive Project Plan to  Monitor Costs. GAO-06-1009T. Washington, D.C.: July 27, 2006.  2010 Census: Census Bureau Needs to Take Prompt Actions to Resolve  Long-standing and Emerging Address and Mapping Challenges. GAO-06- 272. Washington, D.C.: June 15, 2006.  2010 Census: Costs and Risks Must be Closely Monitored and Evaluated  with Mitigation Plans in Place. GAO-06-822T. Washington, D.C.: June 6,  2006.  2010 Census: Census Bureau Generally Follows Selected Leading  Acquisition Planning Practices, but Continued Management Attention  Is Needed to Help Ensure Success. GAO-06-277. Washington, D.C.: May 18,  2006.
Census Bureau: Important Activities for Improving Management of Key  2010 Decennial Acquisitions Remain to be Done. GAO-06-444T.  Washington, D.C.: March 1, 2006.  2010 Census: Planning and Testing Activities Are Making Progress.  GAO-06-465T. Washington D.C.: March 1, 2006.
Information Technology Management: Census Bureau Has Implemented  Many Key Practices, but Additional Actions Are Needed. GAO-05-661.  Washington, D.C.: June 16, 2005.  2010 Census: Basic Design Has Potential, but Remaining Challenges  Need Prompt Resolution. GAO-05-09. Washington, D.C.: January 12, 2005.
Data Quality: Census Bureau Needs to Accelerate Efforts to Develop and  Implement Data Quality Review Standards. GAO-05-86. Washington,  D.C.: November 17, 2004.
Census 2000: Design Choices Contributed to Inaccuracies in Coverage  Evaluation Estimates. GAO-05-71. Washington, D.C.: November 12, 2004.
American Community Survey: Key Unresolved Issues. GAO-05-82.  Washington, D.C.: October 8, 2004.  2010 Census: Counting Americans Overseas as Part of the Decennial  Census Would Not Be Cost-Effective. GAO-04-898. Washington, D.C.:  August 19, 2004.  2010 Census: Overseas Enumeration Test Raises Need for Clear Policy  Direction. GAO-04-470. Washington, D.C.: May 21, 2004.  2010 Census: Cost and Design Issues Need to Be Addressed Soon. GAO- 04-37. Washington, D.C.: January 15, 2004.
Decennial Census: Lessons Learned for Locating and Counting Migrant  and Seasonal Farm Workers. GAO-03-605. Washington, D.C.: July 3, 2003.
Decennial Census: Methods for Collecting and Reporting Hispanic  Subgroup Data Need Refinement. GAO-03-228. Washington, D.C.: January  17, 2003.
Decennial Census: Methods for Collecting and Reporting Data on the  Homeless and Others Without Conventional Housing Need Refinement.  GAO-03-227. Washington, D.C.: January 17, 2003.  2000 Census: Lessons Learned for Planning a More Cost-Effective 2010  Census. GAO-03-40. Washington, D.C.: October 31, 2002.
The American Community Survey: Accuracy and Timeliness Issues.  GAO-02-956R. Washington, D.C.: September 30, 2002.
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