2020 Census: Key Information Technology Decisions Must Be Made Soon
Published: 2015-11-03T00:00:00

Fast Facts:

Highlights:
section_title: Why GAO Did This Study
paragraphs: The cost of the nation's decennial census has steadily increased over the past 40 years; the 2010 Census was the most expensive to date, at about $13 billion. To achieve cost savings while still conducting an accurate count of the population, the U.S. Census Bureau is planning significant changes for the design of the 2020 Decennial Census, including major efforts to implement new technologies and IT systems supporting its surveys. For example, the Bureau is planning to offer an option for households to respond via the Internet, which requires developing new applications and IT infrastructure.
This statement summarizes the critical challenges the Bureau faces in successfully delivering IT systems in time for testing redesigned 2020 Census operations. To develop this statement, GAO relied on previously published work, as well as information on steps the Bureau has taken to implement prior GAO recommendations.
section_title: What GAO Found
paragraphs: GAO has previously reported that the U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) faces a number of critical challenges in developing and deploying the information technology (IT) systems and infrastructure it plans to rely on to conduct the significantly redesigned 2020 Census. Specifically, the Bureau has a major IT program under way to modernize and consolidate the multiple, duplicative systems it currently uses to carry out survey data collection and processing functions; however, with less than 2 years before preparations begin for end-to-end testing of all systems and operations to ensure readiness for the 2020 Census, there is limited time to implement it. While the Bureau documented many key decisions about the redesigned 2020 Census in the 2020 Census Operational Plan, released in October 2015, several key IT-related decisions have not been made. Specifically, the Bureau has not yet made decisions about the projected demand that the IT infrastructure would need to meet or whether it will build or buy the needed systems.
This lack of prioritization of IT decisions has been a continuing trend, which GAO has previously identified. For example:
In April 2014, GAO reported that the Bureau had not prioritized key IT research and testing needed for its design decisions. Accordingly, GAO recommended that the Bureau prioritize its IT-related research and testing projects. The Bureau had taken steps to address this recommendation, such as releasing a plan in September 2014 that identified research questions intended to inform the operational design decisions.
In February 2015, however, GAO reported that the Bureau had not determined how key IT research questions that were identified in the September 2014 plan would be answered—such as the expected rate of respondents using its Internet response option or the IT infrastructure that would be needed to support this option. GAO recommended that the Bureau, among other things, develop methodologies and plans for answering key IT-related research questions in time to inform design decisions. However, this has not yet happened.
In addition, while the Bureau has made improvements in some key IT management areas, it still faces challenges in the areas of workforce planning and information security. Specifically:
It has taken steps to develop an enterprise-wide IT workforce planning process, as GAO recommended in 2012. However, the Bureau has yet to fill key positions. Most concerning, it is currently without a permanent chief information officer.
The Bureau has taken steps to implement the majority of the 115 recommendations GAO made in 2013 to address information security weaknesses; however, completing this effort is necessary to ensure that sensitive information it will collect during the census is adequately protected.
With the deferral of key IT-related decisions, the Bureau is running out of time to develop, acquire, and implement the systems it will need to deliver the redesign and achieve its projected $5.2 billion in cost savings.
section_title: What GAO Recommends
paragraphs: In its prior work, GAO made recommendations to the Census Bureau to prioritize IT testing and research and determine how key decisions for the 2020 Census were to be answered. GAO also made recommendations to improve IT management, workforce planning, and information security. The Bureau has taken steps to address selected recommendations, but more actions are still needed to fully address these recommendations.

section_title: Letter
paragraphs: I am pleased to be here today to discuss the U.S. Census Bureau’s  (Bureau) preparations to implement information technology (IT) solutions  for the 2020 Census. On October 6, 2015, the Bureau released the first  version of its 2020 Census Operational Plan, which is intended to outline  the design decisions that drive how the 2020 Census will be conducted.  These design decisions are expected to significantly transform how the  Bureau conducts the Decennial Census, in an effort to save  approximately $5.2 billion. The redesign largely depends on implementing  new technology and systems to modernize and automate many parts of  the Decennial Census. Accordingly, concurrent with the overhaul of the  2020 Census, the Bureau is also significantly redesigning the IT systems  that support each of its surveys, including the Decennial Census.
With less than 2 years remaining for the Bureau to put all systems and  operations place to prepare for end-to-end testing, this hearing is timely.  My statement today will describe critical challenges the Bureau faces in  successfully delivering the needed IT systems for the 2020 Census.
The information in this testimony is based primarily on our previous  reports on the Bureau’s planning efforts for the 2020 Census. More detail  on our scope and methodology is provided in each published report cited  in this testimony. We also obtained and reviewed information on the  Bureau’s actions in response to our previous recommendations.
The work on which this statement is based was conducted in accordance  with generally accepted government auditing standards. Those standards  require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate  evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions  based on our audit objectives. We believe that the evidence obtained  provides a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on  our audit objectives.
subsections: section_title: Background
paragraphs: As you know, the cost of the Decennial Census has steadily increased  during the past 40 years, in part because the nation’s population has  steadily grown larger, more diverse, and increasingly difficult to  enumerate. For example, at about $13 billion, the 2010 Census was the  costliest U.S. census in history and was 56 percent more costly than the  $8.1 billion 2000 Census (in constant 2010 dollars).
To help save costs, in preparing for the 2020 Census, the Bureau has  been researching and testing new methods and technologies to redesign  the Census to more cost-effectively count the population while  maintaining high-quality results.
The Bureau’s research and testing has focused on four redesign areas:
Reengineering address canvassing: This involves reengineering  processes for updating the Bureau’s address list and maps of the  nation to reduce the need for employing field staff to walk every street  in the nation to verify addresses.
Optimizing self-response: Includes efforts to maximize the self- response of households by, among other things, offering an Internet  response option. As we have previously reported, to deliver the  Internet response option, the Bureau would need to, among other  things, design and develop an Internet response application, develop  and acquire the IT infrastructure to support a large volume of data  processing and storage, and plan communication and outreach  strategies to motivate households to respond via the Internet.
Using administrative records: This includes expanding the use of  data previously obtained by other federal and state government  agencies and commercial sources to reduce the need for costly and  labor-intensive follow-up work. My colleague will address the Bureau’s  progress on using administrative records in his statement today.
Reengineering field operations: This includes reducing the number  of visits to households, automating the management of enumerator  work to conduct non-response follow-up, and automating and  optimizing case assignment and routing for enumerators to reduce the  staffing, infrastructure, and field offices required for the 2020 Census.
The Bureau has conducted several major field tests to examine the  potential for each of these redesign areas:  In mid-2014 the Bureau conducted the 2014 Census Test in the  Maryland and Washington, D.C., areas to test new methods for  conducting self-response and non-response follow-up.
In early 2015 the Bureau completed the Address Validation Test,  which was used to examine new methods for updating the Bureau’s  address list.
In mid-2015 the Bureau conducted the 2015 Census Test in Arizona  to test, among other things, the use of a field operations management  system to automate data collection operations and provide real-time  data and the ability to reduce the non-response follow-up workload  using data previously provided to the government, as well as enabling  enumerators to use their personally owned mobile devices to collect  census data.
Also in mid-2015, the Bureau conducted an optimizing self-response  test in Savannah, Georgia, and the surrounding area, which was  intended to further explore methods of encouraging households to  respond using the Internet, such as using advertising and outreach to  motivate respondents, and enabling households to respond without a  Bureau-issued identification number.
More recently, the Bureau began its National Content Test, which is  currently ongoing and intended to, among other things, continue to  test self-response modes and contact strategies and refine estimates  of national self-response and Internet response rates.
These tests were intended to inform the first version of the Bureau’s 2020  Census Operational Plan, which is intended to outline design decisions  that drive how the 2020 Census will be conducted. As part of these  decisions, the Bureau has committed to aspects of the 2020 Census  redesign. The operational plan articulated 326 total design decision  points, which vary widely in their complexity, importance, and urgency.  As of October 6, 2015, the Bureau had made decisions for about 47  percent of them related to each of the four redesign areas. For example,  the Bureau has decided to  conduct 100 percent of address canvassing (i.e., identifying all  addresses where people could live) in the office, and target a subset  of up to 25 percent for in-the-field address canvassing; offer an Internet self-response option, as well as alternative response  options via telephone and paper for limited circumstances; allow people to respond without a unique census identification use mobile devices for enumerators to conduct field data collection; use administrative records to enumerate vacant units; use enterprise solutions to support the 2020 Census, when  practicable; and  reduce the field footprint by half in comparison to the 2010 Census  (e.g., 6 regional census centers instead of 12 and up to 250 field  offices instead of nearly 500).
Figure 1 provides an overview of the Bureau’s current plans and  assumptions for the 2020 Census, resulting from the October 2015  operational plan.
As a result of these decisions, the Bureau estimates saving $5.2 billion.  Specifically, the Bureau estimated that repeating the design of the 2010  Census for 2020 would cost approximately $17.8 billion (in constant 2020  dollars), while successfully implementing the four redesign areas is  expected to result in an overall 2020 Census cost of $12.5 billion (in  constant 2020 dollars). Table 1 illustrates the estimated cost savings  associated with each redesign area.
Moving forward, the Bureau plans to conduct additional research and  testing and further refine the design through 2018. By August 2017, the  Bureau plans to begin preparations for end-to-end testing, which is  intended to test all systems and operations to ensure readiness for the  2020 Census. Figure 2 shows the timeline for planned 2020 Census  research and testing.
Concurrent with redesigning the decennial census, the Bureau has also  begun a significant effort to modernize and consolidate its survey data  collection and processing functions. This is being undertaken through an  enterprise-wide IT initiative called Census Enterprise Data Collection and  Processing (CEDCAP). This initiative is a large and complex  modernization program intended to deliver a system-of-systems for all the  Bureau’s survey data collection and processing functions—rather than  continuing to rely on unique, survey-specific systems with redundant  capabilities.
For the 2020 Census, CEDCAP is expected to deliver the systems and IT  infrastructure needed to implement the Bureau’s redesign areas. For  example:
To reengineer field work, CEDCAP is expected to implement a new  dynamic operational control system to track and manage field work.  This system is to be able to make decisions about which visits  enumerators should attempt on a daily basis using real-time data, as  well as provide automated route planning to make enumerator travel  more efficient. CEDCAP also includes testing the use of mobile  devices, either government-furnished or employee-owned, to  automate data collection in the field.
To maximize self-response with the Internet response option,  CEDCAP is responsible for developing and testing a web-based  survey application and exploring options for establishing the IT  infrastructure to support the increased volume of data processing and  storage that will be needed.
CEDCAP consists of 12 projects that are to deliver capabilities  incrementally, over the course of at least 10 releases. The Bureau plans  to roll out capabilities for the 2020 Census incrementally through 6 of  these releases, while also deploying capabilities for other surveys such as  the American Community Survey and Economic Census. The Bureau  expects to reuse selected systems, make modifications to other systems,  and develop or acquire additional systems and infrastructure. As of  August 2015, the CEDCAP program was projected to cost about $548  million through 2020.
However, the Bureau’s past efforts to implement new approaches and  systems have not always gone well. As one example, during the 2010  Census, the Bureau planned to use handheld mobile devices to support  field data collection for the census, including following up with  nonrespondents. However, due to significant problems identified during  testing of the devices, cost overruns, and schedule slippages, the Bureau  decided not to use the handheld devices for non-response follow-up and  reverted to paper-based processing, which increased the cost of the 2010  Census by up to $3 billion and significantly increased its risk as it had to  switch its operations to paper-based operations as a backup.
section_title: Bureau Faces Critical Challenges in Delivering IT Systems Needed to Support Redesign Areas
paragraphs: Last month’s issuance of the 2020 Census Operational Plan, which  documents many key decisions about the redesign of the 2020 Census,  represents progress; however, the Bureau faces critical challenges in  delivering the IT systems needed to support the redesign areas.  Specifically, with preparations for end-to-end testing less than 2 years  away, the window to implement CEDCAP, which is intended to be the  backbone of the 2020 Census, is narrow. Additionally, while the Bureau  has demonstrated improvements in IT management, as we have  previously reported, it faces critical gaps in its IT workforce planning and  information security. Until it takes actions we have previously  recommended to address these challenges, the Bureau is at risk of cost  overruns, schedule delays, and performance shortfalls, which will likely  diminish the potentially significant cost savings that it estimates will result  from redesigning the census for 2020.
subsections: section_title: Timeframe to Implement the Large and Complex IT Systems Needed for 2020 Census Redesign Is Narrow
paragraphs: The Bureau has not prioritized key IT-related decisions, which is a trend  we have reported for the past few years. Specifically, in April 2014, we  reported the Bureau had not prioritized key IT research and testing  needed for the design decisions planned for the end of 2015. In  particular, the Bureau had not completed the necessary plans and  schedules for research and testing efforts and had not prioritized what  needed to be done in time for the 2015 design decisions—a milestone  that had already been pushed back by a year (see fig. 3). We concluded  that, given the current trajectory and the lack of supporting schedules and  plans, it was unlikely that all planned IT-related research and testing  activities would be completed in time to support the 2015 design  decisions—which ultimately came to fruition (as discussed later).
In light of these ongoing challenges, we recommended in our April 2014  report that the Bureau prioritize its IT-related research and testing  projects that need to be completed to support the design decisions and  develop schedules and plans to reflect the new prioritized approach. The  Bureau agreed with our recommendations and has taken steps to  address them. For example, in September 2014, the Bureau released a  plan that identified inputs, such as research questions, design  components, and testing, that were needed to inform the operational  design decisions expected in the fall of 2015.
However, as we reported in February 2015, the Bureau had not yet  determined how key IT research questions that had been identified as  critical inputs into the design decisions—estimating the Internet self- response rate and determining the IT infrastructure for security and  scalability needed to support Internet response—were to be answered.  We therefore recommended that the Bureau, among other things,  develop methodologies and plans for answering key IT-related research  questions in time to inform key design decisions.
While the recent 2020 Census Operational Plan documents many key IT- related decisions about the redesign of the census, other critical  questions, including the ones identified in our February 2015 report,  remain unanswered. Of greater concern, the Bureau does not intend to  answer these and other questions until 2016 through 2018. Specifically,  there are several significant IT decisions that are being deferred, which  have implications on the CEDCAP program’s ability to have production- ready systems in place in time to conduct end-to-end testing. For  example, the Bureau does not plan to decide on  the projected demand that the IT infrastructure and systems would  need to accommodate or whether the Bureau will build or buy the  needed systems until June 2016, at the earliest; the high-level design and description of the systems (referred to as  the solutions architecture) until September 2016—leaving about a  year to, among other things, build or acquire, integrate, and test the  systems that are intended to serve as the backbone to the 2020  Census before preparations for end-to-end testing begins in August  2017; and  the strategy for the use of mobile devices for field work until October  2017.
Figure 4 illustrates several key IT-related decisions that have been  deferred which will impact preparations for the end-to-end test and 2020  Census. Unless the Bureau makes these key decisions soon, it will likely  run out of time to put CEDCAP systems in place.
section_title: Census Bureau Has Demonstrated Improvements in IT Management, but Faces Critical Gaps in IT Workforce and Information Security
paragraphs: Institutionalizing key IT management controls, such as IT governance,  system development methodology, and requirements management  processes, helps establish a consistent and repeatable process for  managing and overseeing IT investments and reduces the risk of  experiencing cost overruns, schedule slippages, and performance  shortfalls, like those that affected the previous census.
However, in September 2012, we reported that the Bureau lacked a  sufficiently mature IT governance process to ensure that investments are  properly controlled and monitored, did not have a comprehensive system  development methodology, and continued to have long-standing  challenges in requirements management. We made several  recommendations to address these issues, and the Bureau took actions  to fully implement each of the recommendations. For example, the  Bureau addressed gaps in policies and procedures related to IT governance,  such as establishing guidelines on the frequency of investment review  board meetings and thresholds for escalation of cost, risk, or impact  issues; finalized its adoption of an enterprise system development life-cycle  methodology, which included the short incremental development  model, referred to as Agile, and a process for continuously improving  the methodology based on lessons learned; and  implemented a consistent requirements development tool that  includes guidance for developing requirements at the strategic  mission, business, and project levels and is integrated with its  enterprise system development life-cycle methodology.
As a result, the Bureau has established a consistent process for  managing and overseeing its IT investments.
subsections: section_title: IT Workforce Planning Has Improved, but Critical Gaps Continue to Exist
paragraphs: Effective workforce planning is essential to ensure organizations have the  proper skills, abilities, and capacity for effective management. While the  Bureau has made progress in IT workforce planning efforts, many critical  IT competency gaps remain to be filled. In September 2012 we reported,  among other things, that the Bureau had not developed a Bureau-wide IT  workforce plan; identified gaps in mission-critical IT occupations, skills,  and competencies; or developed strategies to address gaps.
Accordingly, we recommended that the Bureau establish a repeatable  process for performing IT skills assessments and gap analyses and  establish a process for directorates to coordinate on IT workforce  planning. In response, in 2013 the Bureau completed an enterprise-wide  competency assessment and identified several mission-critical gaps in  technical competencies. In 2014, the Bureau established documents to  institutionalize a strategic workforce planning process, identified actions  and targets to close the competency gaps by December 2015, and  established a process to monitor quarterly status reports on the  implementation of these actions.
However, as we reported in February 2015, while these are positive steps  in establishing strategic workforce planning capabilities, the Bureau’s  workforce competency assessment identified several mission-critical gaps  that would challenge its ability to deliver IT-related initiatives, such as the  IT systems that are expected to be delivered by CEDCAP. For example,  the Bureau found that competency gaps existed in cloud computing,  security integration and engineering, enterprise/mission engineering life- cycle, requirements development, and Internet data collection. The  Bureau also found that enterprise-level competency gaps existed in  program and project management, budget and cost estimation, systems  development, data analytics, and shared services.
The Bureau has taken steps to regularly monitor and report on the status  of its efforts to close competency gaps and has completed several  notable actions. For example, in August 2015, the Bureau filled the  position of Decennial IT Division Chief and in September 2015 awarded  an enterprise-wide IT services contract for systems engineering and  integration support.
However, more work remains for the Bureau to close competency gaps  critical to the implementation of its IT efforts. Most significantly, in July  2015, the Chief Information Officer resigned. As of October 2015, the  Bureau was working to fill that gap and had an acting Chief Information  Officer temporarily in the position.
Additionally, there are other gaps in key positions, such as the Chief of  the Office of Information Security and Deputy Chief Information Security  Officer, Big Data Center Chief, Chief Cloud Architect, and the CEDCAP  Assistant Chief of Business Integration, who is responsible for overseeing  the integration of schedule, risks, and budget across the 12 projects.  According to Bureau officials, they are working to address these gaps.
section_title: More Work Remains to Address Information Security Weaknesses
paragraphs: Critical to the Bureau’s ability to perform its data collection and analysis  duties are its information systems and the protection of the information  they contain. A data breach could result in the public’s loss of confidence  in the Bureau, thus affecting its ability to collect census data. To ensure  the reliability of their computerized information, agencies should design  and implement controls to prevent, limit, and detect unauthorized access  to computing resources, programs, information, and facilities.  Inadequate design or implementation of access controls increases the  risk of unauthorized disclosure, modification, and destruction of sensitive  information and disruption of service.
In January 2013, we reported on the Bureau’s implementation of  information security controls to protect the confidentiality, integrity, and  availability of the information and systems that support its mission. We  concluded that the Bureau had a number of weaknesses in controls  intended to limit access to its systems and information, as well as those  related to managing system configurations and unplanned events. We  attributed these weaknesses to the fact that the Bureau had not fully  implemented a comprehensive information security program, and made  115 recommendations aimed at addressing these deficiencies. The  Bureau expressed broad agreement with the report and said it would  work to find the best ways to address our recommendations.
As of October 29, 2015, the Bureau had addressed 66 of the 115  recommendations we made in January 2013. Of the remaining open  recommendations, we have determined that 30 require additional actions  by the Bureau, and for the other 19 we have work under way to evaluate  if they have been fully addressed. The Bureau’s progress toward  addressing our security recommendations is encouraging. However, more  work remains to address the recommendations.
A cyber incident recently occurred at the Bureau, and while it appears to  have had limited impact, it demonstrates vulnerabilities at the Bureau.  Specifically, in July 2015, the Bureau reported that it had been targeted  by a cyber attack aimed at gaining access to its Federal Audit  Clearinghouse, which contains non-confidential information from state  and local governments, nonprofit organizations, and Indian tribes to  facilitate oversight of federal grant awards. According to Bureau officials,  the breach was limited to this database on a segmented portion of the  Bureau’s network that does not touch administrative records or sensitive  respondent data protected under Title 13 of the U.S. Code, and the  hackers did not obtain the personally identifiable information of census  and survey respondents.
Given that the Bureau is planning to build or acquire IT systems to collect  the public’s personal information for the 2020 Census in ways that it has  not for previous censuses (e.g., web-based surveys, cloud computing,  and enabling mobile devices to collect census data), continuing to  implement our recommendations and apply IT security best practices as it  implements CEDCAP systems must be a high priority.
As a result of the Bureau’s challenges in key IT internal controls and its  looming deadline, we identified CEDCAP as an IT investment in need of  attention in our February 2015 High-Risk report. We recently initiated a  review of the CEDCAP program for your subcommittees, and expect to  issue a report in the spring of 2016.
In conclusion, the Bureau is pursuing initiatives to significantly reform its  outdated and inefficient methods of conducting decennial censuses.  However, with less than 2 years remaining until the Bureau plans to have  all systems and processes for the 2020 Census developed and ready for  end-to-end testing, it faces challenges that pose significant risk to 2020  Census program. These include the magnitude of the planned changes to  the design of the census, the Bureau’s prior track record in executing  large-scale IT projects, and the current lack of a permanent Chief  Information Officer, among others. Moreover, the Bureau’s preliminary  decision deadline has come and gone, and many IT-related decisions  have been deferred to 2016 through 2018. Consequently, it is running out  of time to develop, acquire, and implement the production systems it will  need to deliver the redesign and achieve its projected $5.2 billion in cost  savings.
The Bureau needs to take action to address the specific challenges we  have highlighted in prior reports. If these actions are not taken, cost  overruns, schedules delays, and performance shortfalls may diminish the  potentially significant cost savings that the Bureau estimates will result  from redesigning the census for 2020.
Chairmen Meadows and Hurd, Ranking Members Connolly and Kelly,  and Members of the Subcommittees, this completes my prepared  statement. I would be pleased to respond to any questions that you may  have.
section_title: Contact and Acknowledgments
paragraphs: If you have any questions concerning this statement, please contact Carol  Cha, Director, Information Technology Acquisition Management Issues, at  (202) 512-4456 or chac@gao.gov. Other individuals who made key  contributions include Shannin O’Neill, Assistant Director; Andrew Beggs;  Lee McCracken; and Jeanne Sung.
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