Social Security: Reform Proposals Could Have a Variety of Effects on Distribution of Benefits and Payroll Taxes
Published: 2004-06-15T00:00:00

Fast Facts:

Highlights:
section_title: Why GAO Did This Study
paragraphs: Under the current Social Security benefit formula, retired workers can receive benefits at age 65 that equal about 50 percent of preretirement earnings for an illustrative low-wage worker but only about 30 percent for an illustrative high-wage worker. Factors other than earnings also influence the distribution of benefits, including the program's provisions for disabled workers, spouses, children, and survivors. Changes in the program over time also affect the distribution of benefits across generations. Social Security faces a long-term structural financing shortfall. Program changes to address that shortfall could alter the way Social Security's benefits and revenues are distributed across the population and affect the income security of millions of Americans. The Chairman of the Senate Special Committee on Aging asked us to discuss how selected Social Security reform proposals might affect the distribution of benefits and taxes.
section_title: What GAO Found
paragraphs: Two distinct perspectives on Social Security's goals suggest different approaches to measuring "progressivity," or the distribution of benefits and taxes with respect to various earnings levels. Both perspectives provide valuable insights. An adequacy perspective focuses on benefit levels and how well they maintain pre-retirement living standards. An equity perspective focuses on rates of return and other measures relating lifetime benefits to contributions. Both perspectives examine how their measures are distributed across earnings levels. However, equity measures take all benefits and taxes into account, which is difficult to calculate for reform proposals that rely on general revenue transfers because it is unclear who will bear the relative burden for those general revenues. The Social Security program's distributional effects reflect both program features and demographic patterns among its recipients. In addition to the benefit formula, disability benefits favor lower earners because disabled workers are more likely to be lower lifetime earners. In contrast, certain household patterns reduce the system's tilt toward lower earners, for example, when lower earners have high-earner spouses. The advantage for lower earners is also diminished by the fact that they may not live as long as higher earners and therefore would get benefits for fewer years on average. Proposals to alter the Social Security program would have different distributional effects, depending on their design. Model 2 of the President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security proposes new individual accounts, certain benefit reductions for all beneficiaries, and certain benefit enhancements for selected low earners and survivors. According to our simulations, the combined effect could result in lower earners receiving a greater relative share of all benefits than under the current system if all workers invest in the same portfolio.

section_title: Letter
paragraphs: Thank you for inviting me here today to discuss the potential effects of  selected Social Security reform proposals. Social Security not only  represents the foundation of our retirement income system; it also  provides millions of Americans with disability insurance and survivor’s  benefits. As a result, Social Security provides benefits that are critical to  the current and future well-being of virtually all Americans. However, as I  have said in congressional testimonies over the past several years, the  system faces both solvency and sustainability challenges in the longer  term. The challenges of combating terrorism have come to the fore as  urgent claims on the federal budget. At the same time, Social Security’s  long-term pressures on the budget have not diminished. Indeed, our long- range challenges are greater than ever. Without substantive reforms,  Social Security and Medicare are unsustainable, and their long-term  impact on the federal budget and the economy will be dramatic.
Social Security faces a long-term structural financing shortfall largely  because people are living longer and having fewer children. According to  the 2004 intermediate—or best-estimate—assumptions of the Social  Security trustees, Social Security’s annual benefit payments will exceed  annual cash revenues beginning in 2018, and it will be necessary to draw  on trust fund reserves to pay full benefits. To do this, the Treasury will  need to obtain cash for those redeemed securities either through  increased taxes and/or spending cuts and/or more borrowing from the  public. In 2042, the trust funds will be exhausted, and annual revenues will  only be sufficient to pay about 73 percent of benefits. As a result, some  combination of benefit and/or revenue changes will be needed to restore  the long-term solvency and sustainability of the program.
Last July, I testified before this committee on the need for early action to  reform Social Security and specifically how failing to do so would place a  burden on younger generations, lower earners, and the disabled. In point  of fact, any reform proposal will have implications for how benefits and  related taxes are distributed across the entire population. Today, we are  issuing a report you requested to examine such distributional effects,  specifically those effects relative to various earnings levels. I hope my  testimony today will help illustrate the potential distributional effects of  Social Security reforms and will place such effects in a broader context.
Before I summarize the findings from this analysis, let me first highlight a  number of important points in connection with our Social Security  challenge.
Social Security reform is part of a broader fiscal and economic  challenge. If you look ahead in the federal budget, the combined Social  Security program (Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability  Insurance), together with the rapidly growing health programs (Medicare  and Medicaid), will dominate the federal government’s future fiscal  outlook. Absent reform, the nation will ultimately have to choose between  persistent, escalating federal deficits and debt, huge tax increases and/or  dramatic budget cuts.
Focusing on trust fund solvency alone is not sufficient. We need to  put the program on a path toward sustainable solvency. Trust fund  solvency is an important concept, but focusing on trust fund solvency  alone can lead to a false sense of security about the overall condition of  the Social Security program. The size of the trust fund does not tell us  whether the program is sustainable—that is, whether the government will  have the capacity to pay future claims or what else will have to be  squeezed to pay those claims. Aiming for sustainable solvency would  increase the chance that future policy makers would not have to face these  difficult questions on a recurring basis. Estimates of what it would take to  achieve 75-year trust fund solvency understate the extent of the problem  because the program’s financial imbalance gets worse in the 76th and each  subsequent year.
Solving Social Security’s long-term financing problem is more  important and complex than simply making the numbers add up.  Social Security is an important and successful social program that affects  virtually every American family. It currently pays benefits to more than 46  million people, including retired workers, disabled workers, the spouses  and children of retired and disabled workers, and the survivors of  deceased workers. The number of individuals receiving benefits is  expected to grow to over 68 million by 2020. The program has been highly  effective at reducing the incidence of poverty among the elderly, and the  disability and survivor benefits have been critical to the financial well  being of millions of others.
Acting sooner rather than later would help to ease the difficulty of  change. As I noted previously, the challenge of facing the imminent and  daunting budget pressure from Medicare, Medicaid, and OASDI increases  over time. Social Security will begin to constrain the budget long before  the trust funds are exhausted in 2042. The program’s annual cash flow is  projected to be negative beginning in 2018. Social Security’s annual cash  deficit will place increasing pressure on the rest of the budget to raise the  resources necessary to meet the program’s costs. Waiting until Social  Security faces an immediate solvency crisis will limit the scope of feasible  solutions and could reduce the options to only those choices that are the  most difficult. Acting soon would allow changes to be phased in so the  individuals who are most likely to be affected, namely younger and future  workers, will have time to adjust their retirement planning while helping  to avoid related “expectation gaps.” It would also help to ensure that the  “miracle of compounding” works for us rather than against us. Finally,  acting soon reduces the likelihood that the Congress will have to choose  between imposing severe benefit cuts and unfairly burdening future  generations with the program’s rising costs.
To assist the Congress in its deliberations, GAO has developed criteria for  evaluating various Social Security reform proposals. These criteria aim to  balance financial and economic considerations with benefit adequacy and  equity issues and the administrative challenges associated with various  proposals. The use of these criteria can help facilitate fair consideration  and informed debate about Social Security reform proposals.
To help ensure adequate incomes, Social Security’s benefit provisions are  designed to favor lower earners, disabled workers, and workers with  dependents. Changes in the program over time also affect the distribution  of benefits and taxes across generations. So, Social Security’s  distributional effects can vary by eligibility, household type, and birth year,  as well as by earnings level. Our focus today is the distribution of benefits  and taxes relative to various earnings levels, or “progressivity.” Two  distinct perspectives on Social Security’s goals suggest different  approaches to measuring progressivity, and both provide valuable insights.  One perspective focuses on measures of the adequacy of benefits while  the other focuses on “equity” measures, such as internal rates of return.  The measures themselves describe either adequacy or equity, but their  distribution with respect to earnings level describes progressivity.
However, when proposals use general revenue transfers, estimating equity  measures becomes difficult because such proposals do not generally  specify what kind of future taxes or spending cuts will finance the  transfers or who will bear the related burden.
The Social Security program’s distributional effects reflect both program  features and demographic patterns among its recipients. While the benefit  formula and disability provisions favor lower earners, household and  mortality patterns serve to reduce the system’s tilt toward lower earners.
Alternative Social Security reform proposals would have different  distributional effects, reflecting the variety of provisions in them. The  various provisions include different ways, within the current program  structure, of reducing certain benefits, enhancing selected benefits, and  enhancing revenues. Certain reform provisions also include creating a new  system of individual retirement savings accounts with different account  contribution levels and different ways of adjusting Social Security defined  benefits to reflect the diversion of Social Security contributions into the  accounts. Individually and in combination, these provisions would affect  the distribution of benefits and taxes relative to various earnings levels.
subsections: section_title: Social Security’s Long-Term Financing Problem Deserves Timely Action
paragraphs: Today the Social Security program faces a long-range and fundamental  financing problem driven largely by known demographic trends. The lack  of an immediate solvency crisis affects the nature of the challenge, but it  does not eliminate the need for action. Acting soon reduces the likelihood  that the Congress will have to choose between imposing severe benefit  cuts and unfairly burdening future generations with the program’s rising  costs. Acting soon would allow changes to be phased in so the individuals  who are most likely to be affected, namely younger and future workers,  will have time to adjust their retirement planning. Since there is a great  deal of confusion about Social Security’s current financing arrangements  and the nature of its long-term financing problem, I would like to spend  some time describing the nature, timing, and extent of the financing  problem.
subsections: section_title: Demographic Trends Drive Social Security’s Long- Term Financing Problem
paragraphs: As you all know, Social Security has always been largely a pay-as-you-go  system. This means that current workers’ taxes generally pay current  retirees’ benefits. As a result, the relative number of workers and  beneficiaries has a major impact on the program’s financial condition. This  ratio, however, is changing. In 1950, before the Social Security system was  mature, the ratio was 16.5:1. In the 1960s, the ratio averaged 4.2:1. Today it  is 3.3:1, and it is expected to drop to around 2.2:1 by 2030. The retirement  of the baby boom generation is not the only demographic challenge facing  the system. People are retiring early and living longer. A falling fertility  rate is the other principal factor underlying the growth in the elderly’s  share of the population. In the 1960s, the fertility rate was an average of 3  children per woman. Today it is a little over 2, and by 2030 it is expected to  fall to 1.95 —a rate that is below the level necessary to replace the  population. Taken together, these trends serve to threaten the financial  solvency and sustainability of this important program. (See fig. 1.)
The combination of these trends means that annual labor force growth will  begin to slow after 2010 and by 2025 is expected to be less than a third of  what it is today. (See fig. 2.) Relatively fewer workers will be available to  produce the goods and services that all will consume. Without a major  increase in productivity, low labor force growth will lead to slower growth  in the economy and to slower growth of federal revenues. This in turn will  only accentuate the overall pressure on the federal budget.
This slowing labor force growth is not always recognized as part of the  Social Security debate. Social Security’s retirement eligibility dates are  often the subject of discussion and debate and can have a direct effect on  both labor force growth and the condition of the Social Security  retirement program. However, it is also appropriate to consider whether  and how changes in pension and/or other government policies could  encourage longer workforce participation. To the extent that people  choose to work longer as they live longer, the increase in the share of life  spent in retirement would be slowed. This could improve the finances of  Social Security and mitigate the expected slowdown in labor force growth.  It could also help to encourage additional economic growth.
section_title: Social Security’s Cash Flow Is Expected to Turn Negative in 2018
paragraphs: Today, the Social Security Trust Funds take in more in taxes than they  spend. Largely because of the known demographic trends I have  described, this situation will change. Although the trustees’ 2004  intermediate estimates project that the combined Social Security Trust  Funds will be solvent until 2042, program spending will constitute a  rapidly growing share of the budget and the economy well before that  date. In 2008, the first baby boomers will become eligible for Social  Security benefits, and the future costs of serving them have already  become a factor in the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) 10-year  projections. Under the trustees’ 2004 intermediate estimates, Social  Security’s cash surplus—the difference between program tax income and  the costs of paying scheduled benefits—will begin a permanent decline in  2009. To finance the same level of federal spending as in the previous year,  additional revenues and/or increased borrowing will be needed.
By 2018, Social Security’s tax income is projected to be insufficient to pay  currently scheduled benefits. At that time, Social Security will join  Medicare’s Hospital Insurance Trust Fund, whose outlays are projected to  begin to exceed revenues this year, as a net claimant on the rest of the  federal budget. The combined OASDI Trust Funds will begin drawing on  the Treasury to cover the cash shortfall, first relying on interest income  and eventually drawing down accumulated trust fund assets. The Treasury  will need to obtain cash for those redeemed securities either through  increased taxes, and/or spending cuts, and/or more borrowing from the  public than would have been the case had Social Security’s cash flow  remained positive. Neither the decline in the cash surpluses nor the cash  deficit will affect the payment of benefits. The shift from positive to  negative cash flow, however, will place increased pressure on the federal  budget to raise the resources necessary to meet the program’s ongoing  costs.
Ultimately, the critical question is not how much a trust fund has in assets,  but whether the government as a whole can afford the benefits in the  future and at what cost to other claims on scarce resources. As I have said  before, the future sustainability of programs is the key issue policy makers  should address—i.e., the capacity of the economy and budget to afford the  commitment. Fund solvency can help, but only if promoting solvency  improves the future sustainability of the program.
subsections: section_title: Decline in Budgetary Flexibility Absent Entitlement Reform
paragraphs: From the perspective of the federal budget and the economy, the  challenge posed by the growth in Social Security spending becomes even  more significant in combination with the more rapid expected growth in  Medicare and Medicaid spending. This growth in spending on federal  entitlements for retirees will become increasingly unsustainable over the  longer term, compounding an ongoing decline in budgetary flexibility.  Over the past few decades, spending on mandatory programs has  consumed an ever-increasing share of the federal budget. In 1964, prior to  the creation of the Medicare and Medicaid programs, spending for  mandatory programs plus net interest accounted for about 33 percent of  total federal spending. By 2004, this share had almost doubled to  approximately 61 percent of the budget. (See fig. 4.)
In much of the last decade, reductions in defense spending helped  accommodate the growth in these entitlement programs. Even before the  events of September 11, 2001, however, this ceased to be a viable option.  Indeed, spending on defense and homeland security will likely grow as we  seek to combat new threats to our nation’s security.
GAO prepares long-term budget simulations that seek to illustrate the  likely fiscal consequences of the coming demographic tidal wave and  rising health care costs. These simulations continue to show that to move  into the future with no changes in federal retirement and health programs  is to envision a very different role for the federal government. Assuming,  for example, all expiring tax provisions are extended and discretionary  spending keeps pace with the economy, by midcentury federal revenues  may be adequate to pay no more than interest on the federal debt. To  obtain balance, massive spending cuts, tax increases, or some combination  of the two would be necessary. (See fig. 5.) Neither slowing the growth of  discretionary spending nor   This testimony is not about the complexities of Medicare, but it is  important to note that Medicare presents a much greater, more complex,  and more urgent fiscal challenge than does Social Security. Medicare  growth rates reflect not only a burgeoning beneficiary population, but also  the escalation of health care costs at rates well exceeding general rates of  inflation. Increases in the number and quality of health care services have  been fueled by the explosive growth of medical technology. Moreover, the  actual costs of health care consumption are not transparent. Third-party  payers generally insulate consumers from the cost of health care  decisions. These factors and others contribute to making Medicare a much  greater and more complex fiscal challenge than even Social Security. GAO  has developed a health care framework to help focus additional attention  on this important area and to help educate key policy makers and the  public on the current system and related challenges.
Indeed, long-term budget flexibility is about more than Social Security and  Medicare. While these programs dominate the long-term outlook, they are  not the only federal programs or activities that bind the future. The federal  government undertakes a wide range of programs, responsibilities, and  activities that obligate it to future spending or create an expectation for  spending. GAO has described the range and measurement of such fiscal  exposures—from explicit liabilities such as environmental cleanup  requirements to the more implicit obligations presented by life-cycle costs  of capital acquisition or disaster assistance. Making government fit the  challenges of the future will require not only dealing with the drivers— entitlements for the elderly—but also looking at the range of federal  activities. A fundamental review of what the federal government does and  how it does it will be needed.
At the same time it is important to look beyond the federal budget to the  economy as a whole. Figure 6 shows the total future draw on the economy  represented by Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Under the 2004  Trustees’ intermediate estimates and CBO’s long-term Medicaid estimates,  spending for these entitlement programs combined will grow to 15.6  percent of GDP in 2030 from today’s 8.5 percent. Taken together, Social  Security, Medicare, and Medicaid represent an unsustainable burden on  future generations.
When Social Security redeems assets to pay benefits, the program will  constitute a claim on real resources at that time. As a result, taking action  now to increase the future pool of resources is important. To echo Federal  Reserve Chairman Greenspan, the crucial issue of saving in our economy  relates to our ability to build an adequate capital stock to produce enough  goods and services in the future to accommodate both retirees and  workers in the future. The most direct way the federal government can  raise national saving is by increasing government saving, i.e., as the  economy returns to a higher growth path, a much more balanced and  disciplined fiscal policy that recognizes our long-term challenges can help  provide a strong foundation for future economic growth and can enhance  future budgetary flexibility. In the short term, we need to realize that we  are already facing a huge fiscal hole. The first thing that we should do is  stop digging.
Taking action soon on Social Security would not only promote increased  budgetary flexibility in the future and stronger economic growth but  would also make the necessary action less dramatic than if we wait. Some  of the benefits of early action—and the costs of delay—can be seen in  figure 7. This compares what it would take to achieve actuarial balance at  different points in time by either raising payroll taxes or reducing  benefits. If we did nothing until 2042—the year the Trust Funds are  estimated to be exhausted—achieving actuarial balance would require  changes in benefits of 30 percent or changes in taxes of 43 percent. As  figure 7 shows, earlier action shrinks the size of the adjustment.
Thus both sustainability concerns and solvency considerations drive us to  act sooner rather than later. Trust Fund exhaustion may be almost 40  years away, but the squeeze on the federal budget will begin as the baby  boom generation starts to retire. Actions taken today can ease both these  pressures and the pain of future actions. Acting sooner rather than later  also provides a more reasonable planning horizon for future retirees.
section_title: Evaluating Social Security Reform Proposals
paragraphs: As important as financial stability may be for Social Security, it cannot be  the only consideration. As a former public trustee of Social Security and  Medicare, I am well aware of the central role these programs play in the  lives of millions of Americans. Social Security remains the foundation of  the nation’s retirement system. It is also much more than just a retirement  program; it pays benefits to disabled workers and their dependents,  spouses and children of retired workers, and survivors of deceased  workers. Last year, Social Security paid almost $471 billion in benefits to  more than 47 million people. Since its inception, the program has  successfully reduced poverty among the elderly. In 1959, 35 percent of the  elderly were poor. In 2000, about 8 percent of beneficiaries aged 65 or  older were poor, and 48 percent would have been poor without Social  Security. It is precisely because the program is so deeply woven into the  fabric of our nation that any proposed reform must consider the program  in its entirety, rather than one aspect alone. Thus, GAO has developed a  broad framework for evaluating reform proposals that considers not only  solvency but other aspects of the program as well.
The analytic framework GAO has developed to assess proposals  comprises three basic criteria:  the extent to which a proposal achieves sustainable solvency and how it  would affect the economy and the federal budget; the relative balance struck between the goals of individual equity and  income adequacy; and   how readily a proposal could be implemented, administered, and  explained to the public.
The weight that different policy makers may place on different criteria will  vary, depending on how they value different attributes. For example, if  offering individual choice and control is less important than maintaining  replacement rates for low-income workers, then a reform proposal  emphasizing adequacy considerations might be preferred. As they fashion  a comprehensive proposal, however, policy makers will ultimately have to  balance the relative importance they place on each of these criteria.
subsections: section_title: Financing Sustainable Solvency
paragraphs: Our sustainable solvency standard encompasses several different ways of  looking at the Social Security program’s financing needs. While 75-year  actuarial balance is generally used in evaluating the long-term financial  outlook of the Social Security program and reform proposals, it is not  sufficient in gauging the program’s solvency after the 75th year. For  example, under the trustees’ intermediate assumptions, each year the 75- year actuarial period changes, and a year with a surplus is replaced by a  new 75th year that has a significant deficit. As a result, changes made to  restore trust fund solvency only for the 75-year period can result in future  actuarial imbalances almost immediately. Reform plans that lead to  sustainable solvency would be those that consider the broader issues of  fiscal sustainability and affordability over the long term. Specifically, a  standard of sustainable solvency also involves looking at (1) the balance  between program income and costs beyond the 75th year and (2) the share  of the budget and economy consumed by Social Security spending.
As I have already discussed, reducing the relative future burdens of Social  Security and health programs is essential to a sustainable budget policy for  the longer term. It is also critical if we are to avoid putting unsupportable  financial pressures on future workers. Reforming Social Security and  health programs is essential to reclaiming our future fiscal flexibility to  address other national priorities.
section_title: Balancing Adequacy and Equity
paragraphs: The current Social Security system’s benefit structure attempts to strike a  balance between the goals of retirement income adequacy and individual  equity. From the beginning, benefits were set in a way that focused  especially on replacing some portion of workers’ pre-retirement earnings.  Over time other changes were made that were intended to enhance the  program’s role in helping ensure adequate incomes. Retirement income  adequacy, therefore, is addressed in part through the program’s  progressive benefit structure, providing proportionately larger benefits to  lower earners and certain household types, such as those with  dependents. Individual equity refers to the relationship between  contributions made and benefits received. This can be thought of as the  rate of return on individual contributions. Balancing these seemingly  conflicting objectives through the political process has resulted in the  design of the current Social Security program and should still be taken  into account in any proposed reforms.
Policy makers could assess income adequacy, for example, by considering  the extent to which proposals ensure benefit levels that are adequate to  protect beneficiaries from poverty and ensure higher replacement rates for  low-income workers. In addition, policy makers could consider the impact  of proposed changes on various subpopulations, such as low-income  workers, women, minorities, and people with disabilities. Policy makers  could assess equity by considering the extent to which there are  reasonable returns on contributions at a reasonable level of risk to the  individual, improved intergenerational equity, and increased individual  choice and control. Differences in how various proposals balance each of  these goals will help determine which proposals will be acceptable to  policy makers and the public.
section_title: Implementing and Administering Proposed Reforms
paragraphs: Program complexity makes implementation and administration both more  difficult and harder to explain to the public. Some degree of  implementation and administrative complexity arises in virtually all  proposed changes to Social Security, even those that make incremental  changes in the already existing structure. However, the greatest potential  implementation and administrative challenges are associated with  proposals that would create individual accounts. These include, for  example, issues concerning the management of the information and  money flow needed to maintain such a system, the degree of choice and  flexibility individuals would have over investment options and access to  their accounts, investment education and transitional efforts, and the  mechanisms that would be used to pay out benefits upon retirement.  Harmonizing a system that includes individual accounts with the  regulatory framework that governs our nation’s private pension system  would also be a complicated endeavor. However, the complexity of  meshing these systems should be weighed against the potential benefits of  extending participation in individual accounts to millions of workers who  currently lack private pension coverage.
Continued public acceptance of and confidence in the Social Security  program require that any reforms and their implications for benefits be  well understood. This means that the American people must understand  why change is necessary, what the reforms are, why they are needed, how  they are to be implemented and administered, and how they will affect  their own retirement income. All reform proposals will require some  additional outreach to the public so that future beneficiaries can adjust  their retirement planning accordingly. The more transparent the  implementation and administration of reform, and the more carefully such  reform is phased in, the more likely it will be understood and accepted by  the American people.
section_title: Examining Social Security’s Effects on Distribution of Benefits and Taxes
paragraphs: Under Social Security, retired workers can receive benefits at age 65 that  equal about 50 percent of pre-retirement earnings for an illustrative  worker with relatively lower earnings but only about 30 percent of  earnings for one with relatively higher earnings. To help ensure that  beneficiaries have adequate incomes, Social Security’s benefit formula is  designed to be “progressive,” that is, to provide disproportionately larger  benefits, as a percentage of earnings, to lower earners than to higher  earners. However, the benefit formula is just one of several program  features that influence the way benefits are distributed. Other such  program features include provisions for disabled workers, spouses,  children, and survivors. Changes in the program over time also affect the  distribution of benefits across generations. So the distribution of Social  Security benefits can vary by eligibility, household type, and birth year as  well as by earnings level.
Over the past few years, we have been developing an increasing capacity  at GAO to estimate quantitatively the effects of Social Security reform on  individuals. Such estimates speak directly to applying our second  evaluation criterion to reform proposals. We have just issued a new report  that, in part, uses such estimates to illustrate the varying effects of  different policy scenarios on how Social Security benefits and taxes are  distributed relative to earnings levels. Today, I would like to share our  findings regarding how to define and describe “progressivity,” defining  appropriate benchmarks for assessing the future outlook for individuals’  Social Security benefits, what factors influence the distributional effects of  the current Social Security program, and how various reform proposals  might vary in their distributional effects. Still, remember that progressivity  is only one of several aspects of our criterion of balancing adequacy and  equity, which in turn is only one of three criteria that each consist of  several dimensions.
subsections: section_title: Different Distributional Measures Reflect Different Perspectives
paragraphs: Two distinct perspectives on Social Security’s goals suggest different  approaches to measuring progressivity. Both perspectives provide  valuable insights. An adequacy perspective focuses on benefit levels and  how well they help ensure a minimal subsistence or maintain pre- entitlement living standards. For example, replacement rates measure  annual benefits as a percentage of annual earnings before receiving  benefits. An equity perspective focuses on rates of return and other  measures relating lifetime benefits to lifetime contributions. This  perspective gauges whether the system gives all participants a “fair deal”  on their contributions. The measures themselves describe either adequacy  or equity, but their distribution with respect to earnings level describes  progressivity. Note however that equity measures cannot accurately assess  the distributional effects of reform proposals that rely on general revenue  transfers. Such proposals do not generally specify what kind of future  taxes or spending cuts will finance the transfers or who will bear the  related burden; but evaluating progressivity from an equity perspective  requires that all taxes and benefits be clearly allocated.
section_title: Benchmark Policy Scenarios Illustrate a Range of Possible Outcomes
paragraphs: Estimating future effects on Social Security benefits should reflect the fact  that the program faces a long-term actuarial deficit and benefit reductions  and/or revenue increases will be necessary to restore solvency. To  illustrate a full range of possible outcomes, we developed hypothetical  benchmark policy scenarios that would restore solvency over the next 75  years either by only increasing payroll taxes or by only reducing benefits.  Our tax-increase-only benchmark simulates “promised benefits,” or those  benefits defined under current law, while our benefit-reduction-only  benchmarks simulate “funded benefits,” or those benefits for which  currently scheduled revenues are projected to be sufficient. The benefit  reductions are phased in between 2005 and 2035 to strike a balance  between the size of the incremental reductions each year and the size of  the ultimate reduction. At our request, Social Security actuaries scored our  benchmark policies and determined the parameters for each that would  achieve 75-year solvency. For our benefit reduction scenarios, the  actuaries determined these parameters assuming that disabled and  survivor benefits would be reduced on the same basis as retired worker  and dependent benefits. If disabled and survivor benefits were not reduced  at all, reductions in other benefits would be deeper than shown in this  analysis.
section_title: Program’s Distributional Effects Reflect Various Program Features and Demographic Patterns
paragraphs: Social Security’s distributional effects reflect program features, such as its  benefit formula, and demographic patterns among its recipients, such as  marriage between lower and higher earners. The retired worker benefit  formula favors lower earners by design, replacing about 50 percent of pre- retirement earnings at age 65 for an illustrative low earner but only about  30 percent of pre-retirement earnings for an illustrative high earner. (See  fig. 8.) The disability benefit formula also favors lower earners, and  disability recipients are disproportionately lower earners. Our simulations  suggest that for individuals born in 1985, compared with a hypothetical  program without disability insurance, Social Security’s disability  provisions increase lifetime Social Security benefits for the bottom fifth of  earners by 43 percent, compared with 14 percent for the top fifth of  earners. The extent to which the benefit formula and disability benefits  favor lower earners may be offset to some degree by demographic  patterns. Household formation tends to reduce the system’s tilt toward  lower earners because some of the lower-earning individuals helped by the  program live in high-income households. For example, many of the lower- earning individuals that the system favors through spouse and survivor  benefits actually live at some point in higher-income households because  of marriage. In our simulations, the ratio of benefits received to payroll  taxes contributed is higher for lower earners than for higher earners, but  this difference is reduced when we account for household formation. Also,  differences in mortality rates may reduce rates of return for lower earners,  as studies show they may not live as long as higher earners and therefore  would receive benefits for fewer years.
section_title: Distributional Effects Vary across Reform Proposals
paragraphs: Alternative Social Security reform proposals would have different  distributional effects, reflecting the variety of provisions in them. The  various provisions include different ways, within the current program  structure, of reducing certain benefits, enhancing selected benefits, and  enhancing revenues. The various reform provisions also include creating a  new system of individual retirement savings accounts with different  account contribution levels and different ways of adjusting Social Security  defined benefits to reflect the diversion of Social Security contributions  into the accounts. Individually and in combination, these provisions would  affect the distribution of benefits and taxes relative to earnings levels.
For example, Model 2 of the President’s Commission to Strengthen Social  Security (CSSS) proposes a new system of voluntary individual accounts  along with a combination of certain benefit reductions for all beneficiaries  and selected benefit enhancements for selected low earners and survivors.  One of its provisions would reduce Social Security defined benefits  proportionally for all workers by modifying the benefit formula. At the  same time, benefits would be enhanced for certain lower earners and  surviving spouses, and 4 percentage points of individuals’ payroll taxes (up  to a $1,000 annual limit) would be diverted into individual accounts.
In contrast, a proposal offered by Peter Diamond and Peter Orszag would  also include a provision to reduce Social Security defined benefits  proportionally for all workers by modifying the benefit formula. It also has  provisions to enhance benefits for selected lower earners and surviving  spouses. However, it does not contain a provision for individual accounts,  and it does have a variety of provisions for enhancing revenues. The  Diamond-Orszag proposal also has other benefit reduction and benefit  enhancement provisions, such as modifying the benefit formula to reduce  benefits for higher earners only. Another provision would maintain  disability benefits and benefits for survivors of workers who die before  retirement in spite of the other benefit reductions.
Also in contrast to CSSS Model 2, a proposal offered by Peter Ferrara  provides for a new system of voluntary individual accounts but does not  contain any provisions to make changes to Social Security defined  benefits, except for individuals participating in the individual accounts.  Moreover, it would provide for substantially larger contributions to the  accounts than would the CSSS Model 2 proposal. Under this provision,  individual account contributions would be a larger percentage of payroll  for lower earners than for higher earners. Also, for those who participate  in the accounts, Social Security defined benefits would be reduced to  reflect the payroll taxes redirected into the accounts; this account offset  uses a different formula than does CSSS Model 2.
To illustrate the distributional effects of CSSS Model 2, we used a  microsimulation model to estimate benefits under it and under our  benchmark policy scenarios. We did not examine the distribution of equity  measures such as benefit-to-tax ratios or rates of return, because the  proposal’s individual account feature requires general revenue transfers.   Since account participation is voluntary, we used two simulations to  examine the effects of the Model 2 provisions, one with universal account  participation (Model 2-100 percent) and one with no account participation  (Model 2-0 percent). We also assumed that all account participants would  invest in the same portfolios; consequently we did not capture any  distributional effect that might occur if lower earners were to make  different account participation or investment decisions than higher  earners.
According to our simulations, the distribution of benefits under Model 2  could favor lower earners more than the distribution of benefits under  either currently promised or currently funded benefits. For example,  assuming universal account participation, households in the lowest fifth of  earnings may receive about 14 percent of all lifetime benefits under Model  2, compared with about 12.5 percent under the current program. (See fig.  9.)
It should be noted that while the simulations suggest that the distribution  of benefits under Model 2 is more progressive than under the benchmarks,  this does not mean benefit levels are always higher for the bottom fifth  under Model 2. Progressivity is about how the "pie" is divided up, not  about how big the pie is.  So, while Model 2 may improve the relative  position of lower earners, it may not improve the adequacy of their  benefits. (See fig. 10.) According to our simulation, median household  lifetime benefits for the bottom fifth under Model 2-0 percent would be 3  percent higher than under the funded benefits scenario but 21 percent  lower than under the promised benefits scenario. Median household  lifetime benefits for the bottom fifth under Model 2-100 percent would be  26 percent higher than under the funded benefits scenario but 4 percent  lower than under the promised benefits scenario.
We also simulated each of Model 2’s core features, assuming 100 percent  participation in the individual accounts, to illustrate the distributional  effect of each feature. (See fig. 11.) First we simulated a version of Model  2-100 percent that included the individual accounts and the reductions in  Social Security defined benefits, but not the $1,000 cap on account  contributions or the enhanced benefits for low earners and survivors. Next  we simulated a version that included the defined-benefit reductions and  the individual accounts with the $1,000 cap on account contributions.  Finally, we simulated the complete Model 2-100 percent scenario, which  included the enhanced benefits to lower earners and survivors. While the  proposal’s individual accounts and benefit reductions together may favor  higher earners, this is more than offset by a limit on account contributions  and the enhanced benefits for low earners and survivors. Again, this  assumes that all account participants would invest in the same portfolios.  However, if individuals’ investment decisions varied by earnings level,  then the distribution of income from the accounts would differ from our  simulations.
It should be emphasized that these simulations are only for individuals  born in 1985, and the distributional impact of Model 2 could be different  for individuals born in later years. For example, under the proposal, initial  Social Security defined benefits only grow with prices, while initial  benefits from account balances grow with wages. Since wages generally  grow faster than prices, Social Security defined benefits will decline as a  proportion of total benefits, reducing the importance of the progressive  benefit formula, disability benefits, and the enhanced benefits for low  earners and survivors.
It should also be noted that the account feature of Model 2-100 percent  likely exposes recipients to greater financial risk. Greater exposure to risk  may not affect the shares of benefits received by the bottom and top fifths  of earnings. However, greater risk may be more problematic for lower  earners, who likely have fewer resources to fall back on if their accounts  perform poorly.
section_title: Conclusion
paragraphs: By design, Social Security distributes benefits and contributions across  workers and their families in a variety of ways. These distributional effects  illustrate how the program balances the goal of helping ensure adequate  incomes with the goal of giving all workers a fair deal on their  contributions. Any changes to Social Security would potentially alter those  distributional effects and the balance between those goals. Therefore,  policy makers need to understand how to evaluate distributional effects of  alternative policies.
Several key themes inform this understanding. First, it should be noted  that greater benefit progressivity is not the same thing as greater benefit  adequacy. Under some reform scenarios, Social Security could distribute  benefits more progressively than under current law while providing lower,  less adequate benefits. Secondly, our analysis illustrates that it that is  possible for some reform provisions that may not favor lower earners to  be counterbalanced by other, more favorable ones. Finally, benefit  progressivity is only one of several aspects of balancing adequacy and  equity. As our framework suggests, besides balancing adequacy and equity,  a proposal’s effect on the economy and whether it achieves sustainable  solvency should also be considered, as well as how readily it could be  implemented and explained to the public.
As we have noted in the past before this committee and elsewhere, a  comprehensive evaluation is needed that considers a range of effects  together. Focusing on comprehensive packages of reforms will enable us  to foster credibility and acceptance. This will help us avoid getting mired  in the details and losing sight of important interactive effects. It will help  build the bridges necessary to achieve consensus.
The fundamental nature of the program’s long-term financing challenge  means that timely action is needed. I believe it is possible to craft a  solution that will protect Social Security benefits for the nation’s current  and near-term retirees, while ensuring that the system will be there for  future generations. Stated differently, I believe that it is possible to reform  Social Security in a way that will assure the program’s solvency and  sustainability while exceeding the expectations of all generations of  Americans.  In this regard, the sooner we act, the greater the opportunity  to achieve this desirable outcome. It is my hope that we will think about  the unprecedented challenge facing future generations in our aging  society. We need to act now before the approaching demographic tidal  wave makes the imbalances more dramatic and meaningful reform less  feasible. We at GAO look forward to continuing to work with this  Committee and the Congress in addressing this and other important issues  facing our nation. In doing so, we will be true to our core values of  accountability, integrity, and reliability.
Mr. Chairman, and members of the Committee, that concludes my  statement. I’d be happy to answer any questions you may have.
section_title: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments
paragraphs: For information regarding this testimony, please contact Barbara D.  Bovbjerg, Director, Education, Workforce, and Income Security Issues, at  (202) 512-7215. Individuals making key contributions to this testimony  include Ken Stockbridge, Charles Jeszeck, and Gordon Mermin.
section_title: Related GAO Products
paragraphs: Social Security: Distribution of Benefits and Taxes Relative to Earnings  Level (GAO-04-747, June 15, 2004).
Social Security Reform: Analysis of a Trust Fund Exhaustion Scenario  (GAO-03-907, July 29, 2003)
Social Security and Minorities: Earnings, Disability Incidence, and  Mortality Are Key Factors That Influence Taxes Paid and Benefits  Received (GAO-03-387, Apr. 23, 2003)
Social Security: Analysis of Issues and Selected Reform Proposals,  (GAO-03-376T, Jan. 15, 2003).
Social Security Reform: Analysis of Reform Models Developed by the  President’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security (GAO-03-310,  Jan. 15, 2003).
Social Security: Long-Term Financing Shortfall Drives Need for Reform  (GAO-02-845T, June 19, 2002).
Social Security: Program’s Role in Helping Ensure Income Adequacy  (GAO-02-62, Nov. 30, 2001).
Social Security Reform: Potential Effects on SSA’s Disability Programs  and Beneficiaries (GAO-01-35, Jan. 24, 2001).
Social Security: Evaluating Reform Proposals (GAO/AIMD/HEHS-00-29,  Nov. 4, 1999).
Social Security: Issues in Comparing Rates of Return with Market  Investments (GAO/HEHS-99-110, Aug. 5, 1999).
Social Security: Criteria for Evaluating Social Security Reform  Proposals (GAO/T-HEHS-99-94, Mar. 25, 1999).
Social Security Financing: Implications of Government Stock Investing  for the Trust Fund, the Federal Budget, and the Economy  (GAO/AIMD/HEHS-98-74, Apr. 22, 1998).
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