2010 Census: The Bureau's Plans for Reducing the Undercount Show Promise, but Key Uncertainties Remain
Published: 2008-09-23T00:00:00

Fast Facts:

Highlights:
section_title: Why GAO Did This Study
paragraphs: An accurate decennial census relies on finding and counting people-- only once--in their usual place of residence, and collecting complete and correct information on them. This is a daunting task as the nation's population is growing steadily larger, more diverse, and according to the U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau), increasingly difficult to find and reluctant to participate in the census. Historically, undercounts have plagued the census and the differential impact on various subpopulations such as minorities and children is particularly problematic. GAO was asked to describe (1) key activities the Bureau plans to use to help reduce the differential undercount and improve participation, (2) the various challenges and opportunities that might affect the Bureau's ability to improve coverage in 2010, and (3) how different population estimates can impact the allocation of federal grant funds. This testimony is based primarily on GAO's issued work in which it evaluated the performance of various Census Bureau operations.
section_title: What GAO Found
paragraphs: The Bureau's strategy for reducing the undercount and improving participation in the 2010 enumeration appears to be comprehensive, integrated, and shaped by the Bureau's experience in the 2000 Census. If implemented as planned, the various activities the Bureau is developing should position the agency to address the undercount. Key operations include building a complete and accurate address list, implementing an Integrated Communications Campaign to increase awareness and encourage participation, and fielding special enumeration programs targeted toward historically undercounted populations. For example, the Bureau develops its address list and maps over the course of a decade using a series of operations that sometimes overlap to ensure all housing units are included. Among other activities, temporary census workers go door to door across the country in an operation called address canvassing to verify addresses. To help find hidden housing units, the Bureau's workers look for clues such as two mailboxes or utility meters that could indicate additional households. Likewise, the Bureau's communications campaign includes paid media, public relations, and partnerships with national and grassroots organizations, among other efforts, some of which will be targeted toward hard-to-count groups. Despite the Bureau's ambitious plans, a number of challenges and uncertainties remain. For example, the performance of the handheld computers that is critical to address canvassing has technical shortcomings, while the communications campaign faces the historical challenge of converting awareness of the census to an actual response. Further, success will depend in large part on the extent to which the various operations (1) start and finish on schedule, (2) are implemented in the proper sequence, (3) are adequately tested and refined, and (4) receive appropriate staffing and funding. It will also be important for the Bureau to have a real-time monitoring capability to track the progress of the enumeration, target its resources to where they are most needed, and to quickly respond to various contingencies that could jeopardize the accuracy or cost of the count. Our past work indicates that the accuracy of state and local population estimates may have an effect, though modest, on the allocation of grant funds among the states. Many of the formulas used to allocate grant funds rely upon measures of the population, often in combination with other factors. For example, we analyzed the sensitivity of Social Services Block Grants (SSBG) to alternative population estimates, rather than the actual census. We selected SSBG for our analysis because the formula, which was based solely on population, and the resulting funding allocations were particularly sensitive to alternative population estimates. Based on our simulation of the funding formula, 27 states and the District of Columbia would have gained $4.2 million and 23 states would have lost $4.2 million of the $1.7 billion in 2004 SSBG funding.

section_title: Letter
paragraphs: Thank you for the opportunity to be here today to discuss the challenges  the U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) faces in improving the accuracy and  coverage of the 2010 decennial Census, and the strategies the Bureau plans  to employ to reduce the undercount.  An accurate decennial census relies  on finding and counting people—only once—in their usual place of  residence, and collecting complete and correct information from them.   This is a daunting task as the nation’s population is growing steadily  larger, more diverse, and according to the Bureau, increasingly difficult to  find and reluctant to participate in the census.  Coverage improvement  involves reduction in overcounting and undercounting.  An undercount  occurs when the census misses an individual who should have been  enumerated; an overcount occurs when an individual is counted in error.
What makes these errors particularly problematic is their differential  impact on various subgroups.  Minorities, renters, and children, for  example, are more likely to be undercounted by the census while more  affluent groups, such as people with vacation homes, are more likely to be  enumerated more than once.   As census data are used to apportion seats  in Congress, redraw congressional districts, and allocate billions of dollars  in federal assistance to state and local governments, improving coverage  and reducing the differential undercount are critical.
The Bureau has long recognized the importance of reducing the  undercount and, in previous enumerations, has included operations and  programs designed to improve coverage.  As the Bureau moves toward  2010, however, besides such long-standing challenges to an accurate  enumeration as the nation’s linguistic diversity and privacy concerns, it  also faces newly emerging issues such as local campaigns against illegal  immigration and a post-September 11 environment that could heighten  some groups’ fears of government agencies.
Today’s hearing is particularly timely because, in the months that remain  until Census Day, April 1, 2010, the Bureau will launch a series of  operations aimed at reducing the differential undercount including  building a complete and accurate address list, launching an Integrated  Communications Campaign to increase awareness and encourage  participation in the census, and implementing special enumeration  programs targeted toward undercounted groups.   Although not an  exhaustive list, I am highlighting these actions in my statement to help  illustrate the range of activities the Bureau employs to improve coverage  at different phases of the census.
As requested, my testimony will describe (1) how the Bureau plans to use  these operations to help reduce the differential undercount and improve  participation, (2) the various challenges and opportunities that might  affect the Bureau’s ability to improve coverage in 2010, and (3) how  different population estimates can impact the allocation of federal grant  funds.
My remarks today are based primarily on reports we issued from 2000  through 2008 on the planning and development of the 2010 Census, lessons  learned from prior censuses, and the impact of population measures on  federal funding allocations.  Please see the final page of this testimony for  related GAO products.  Further, we reviewed recent documents on the  Bureau’s outreach and promotion plans as well as other efforts to reduce  the undercount and interviewed Bureau officials about undercount  challenges, plans to improve coverage among hard-to-count populations,  and progress made towards addressing undercount issues from the 2000  Census.
We conducted our review in accordance with generally accepted  government auditing standards.  Those standards require that we plan and  perform the audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a  reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit  objectives. We believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable  basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives.
In summary, the Bureau has developed a wide variety of plans and  programs to position it to address the differential undercount.  Further,  the Bureau’s efforts are designed to reinforce one another, so that a  household missed in one operation—say, address canvassing—can be  picked up in a subsequent activity such as nonresponse follow-up.  At the  same time, the Bureau’s plans reflect lessons learned from the 2000  Census.
Still, a number of hurdles and uncertainties remain, and success will  depend in large part on the extent to which the various operations (1) start  and finish on schedule, (2) are implemented in the proper sequence, (3)  are adequately tested and refined, and (4) receive appropriate staffing and  funding.  It will also be important for the Bureau to closely track the  progress of key census-taking activities, target its resources to where they  are most needed, and ensure that it has the ability to quickly respond to  various contingencies that could jeopardize the accuracy of the count.
subsections: section_title: Background
paragraphs: The Bureau puts forth tremendous effort to conduct an accurate count of  the nation’s population. However, some degree of coverage error in the  form of persons missed or counted more than once is inevitable. Two  types of errors that can affect the accuracy of the enumeration are the  omission of persons who should have been counted and erroneous  enumerations of persons who should not have been counted.
Historically, undercounts have plagued the census, although, according to  the Bureau, they have generally diminished since 1940.  For the 2000  Census, for the first time in its history, the Bureau reported a slight net  overcount of approximately 0.5 percent or about 1.3 million people.   However, as shown in figure 1, coverage errors were not evenly  distributed through the population.  For example, there was an overcount  of non-Hispanic Whites, and an undercount of non-Hispanic Blacks.   Nevertheless, figure 1 also shows the strides the Bureau made in reducing  the undercount in the 2000 Census compared to 1990.
Importantly, the national net overcount of about 0.5 percent does not  mean that 99.5 percent of the population was counted correctly in 2000.  In  fact, the number of persons who were counted twice in the census was  partially offset by the number of persons who were missed by the census.   We have long maintained that the sum of these numbers—known as gross  error (rather than the difference between the two numbers or net error)— provides a more comprehensive measure of total error in the census.
Participation in the census, as measured by the mail return rate, also  affects the accuracy of census data.  The Bureau calculates mail return  rates as the percentage of questionnaires the Bureau receives from  occupied housing units in the mail-back universe.   Although individuals  who fail to mail back their census forms might be counted by an  enumerator during a subsequent operation called nonresponse follow-up,  high mail return rates are critical to quality data.  A Bureau evaluation of  the 2000 Census found that responses from mail returns tend to be more  accurate than those obtained during nonresponse follow-up.
Historically, return rates have declined.  According to the Bureau, in 1970,  for example, the overall mail return rate was 87.0 percent; in 1980, 81.3  percent; and in 1990 and 2000, 74.1 percent.  Importantly, as shown in  figure 2, during the 2000 Census, differentials existed in the mail return  rates of different demographic groups.  For example, Whites had a higher  mail return rate (77.5 percent) than the rate for all groups (74.1 percent),  while nearly every other demographic group had lower return rates than  the overall mail return rate. The lowest mail return rates were those of  Pacific Islanders (54.6 percent) and those of two or more races (57.7  percent).  Maintaining or increasing mail return rates, especially minority  return rates, represents an important opportunity for the Bureau to  improve the quality of census data.
section_title: A Number of Census Operations Are Aimed at Improving Coverage
paragraphs: In designing the 2010 Census, the Bureau recognized the importance of  including a number of operations aimed at improving coverage and  reducing the differential undercount.  Three such efforts that I will  highlight in my remarks today are (1) a complete and accurate address list,  (2) an Integrated Communications Campaign to increase awareness and  encourage participation, and (3) special enumeration programs targeted  toward historically undercounted populations.  These activities, along with  a number of others planned for 2010, will position the Bureau to reduce  the undercount.  At the same time, each faces particular challenges and  uncertainties that I will describe later in my statement.
subsections: section_title: Building a Complete and Accurate Address List
paragraphs: The foundation of a successful census is a complete and accurate address  list and the maps that go with it. The Bureau’s Master Address File (MAF)  is the inventory of the nation’s roughly 133.7 million housing units.  In so  far as it is used to deliver questionnaires as well as to organize the  collection and tabulation of the data, the MAF serves as the basic control  for the census.
The Bureau develops its address list and maps over the course of the  decade using a series of operations that sometimes overlap to increase the  accuracy of the list of all housing units are included.    These operations  include partnerships with the U.S. Postal Service and other federal  agencies; state, local, and tribal governments; and local planning  organizations.
Three operations that can help include the hard-to-count are the Bureau’s  Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) program, address canvassing,  and Group Quarters Validation.
subsections: section_title: Local Update of Census Addresses
paragraphs: The LUCA program gives state, local, and tribal governments the  opportunity to review and update the list of addresses and maps that the  Bureau will use to deliver questionnaires within those communities.   According to Bureau officials, LUCA helps identify hard-to-count  populations and “hidden” housing units such as converted basements  because local governments might know where such dwellings exist and  have access to local data and records.  In October 2008, the Bureau is  scheduled to complete its reviews of participants’ LUCA submissions and  update the MAF and a related geographic database used for maps.
section_title: Address Canvassing
paragraphs: In the address canvassing operation, thousands of temporary Bureau  employees known as listers verify the addresses of all housing units— including those addresses provided by localities in LUCA—by going door  to door across the country.  As part of this effort, listers add addresses that  might not be in the Bureau’s database.   To help find hidden housing units  it might otherwise miss, listers ask if there is more than one residence at a  particular address, or to look for clues such as an outbuilding or two  mailboxes or utility meters that could indicate additional households.   Indeed, as shown in the picture on the left in figure 3, someone could be  living in what appears to be a storage shed.  Likewise, in the picture on the  right, what appears to be a small, single-family house could contain  another apartment as suggested by its two doorbells.    such as single-family houses, apartments and mobile homes, the 2000  decennial enumerated over seven million people living in group situations  such as college dormitories, nursing homes, migrant labor camps, prisons,  and group homes, collectively known as “group quarters”.  Some group  quarters, such as seasonal and migrant labor camps, can be difficult to  locate because they are sometimes fenced-in or in remote locations away  from main roads.   The Bureau encountered a number of problems when  enumerating group quarters during the 2000 Census.  For example, in 2000,  communities reported instances where students in college dormitories  were counted twice and prison inmates were counted in the wrong county.  Additionally, group homes are sometimes difficult for census workers to  spot because, as shown in figure 4, they can look the same as conventional  housing units.
Since 1970, the Bureau has conducted a separate operation to enumerate  the group quarters population.  For 2010, the Bureau has plans to conduct  Group Quarters Validation to validate the addresses found in the Address  Canvassing operation and collect information about the type of group  quarters.
section_title: Encouraging Participation through the Integrated Communications Campaign
paragraphs: The Bureau’s Integrated Communications Campaign is designed to  increase the mail response rate, improve cooperation with enumerators,  enhance the overall accuracy of the census, and reduce the differential  undercount.  The Bureau estimates it will spend $410 million on the  Integrated Communications Campaign for the 2010 Census.
In September 2007, the Bureau awarded its communications contract to  DraftFCB, a communications firm hired to orchestrate a number of  communications activities for the 2010 Census.  DraftFCB’s approach  includes a specific focus on undercounted populations.  As one example,  the contractor worked with the Bureau to segment the nation’s population  into distinct “clusters” using socioeconomic, demographic, and other data  from the 2000 Census that are correlated with a person’s likelihood to  participate in the census.  Each cluster was given a hard-to-count score  and the Bureau’s communications efforts are to be targeted to those  clusters with the highest scores.  The four clusters with the highest hard- to-count scores made up 14 percent of the nation’s occupied housing units  based on data from the 2000 Census, and included the following  demographic characteristics: renters, immigrants, non-English speakers,  persons without higher education, persons receiving public assistance,  and persons who are unemployed.
Targeting the Bureau’s communications campaign to hard-to-count  populations will help the Bureau use its resources more effectively.  This  will be important because in constant 2010 dollars, the Bureau will be  spending less on communications for the 2010 Census ($410 million)  compared to the 2000 Census ($480 million).
The campaign strategy will be based on the theme “It’s In Our Hands”.   According to the Bureau, this approach reflects a marketplace trend where  communications are becoming more two-way or participatory, and can be  seen, for example, in people creating their own content on the World Wide  Web.  The goal of the strategy is to encourage personal ownership and  involvement that spreads the word about the census.  The Bureau believes  this approach will be more effective than if the message came from the  government talking to the public.  Further, the generic theme will be  tailored to specific groups.  For example, outreach targeted to families  might carry the message, “The education of our children. . .It’s in our  hands,” while the economically disadvantaged might receive “The power  to matter. . .It’s in our hands.”
The communications campaign consists of (1) paid media including  national, local, outdoor, and online advertisements; (2) earned media and  public relations such as news releases, media briefings, special events,  podcasts, and blogs; (3) Census in Schools, a program designed to reach  parents and guardians through their school age children, and (4)  partnerships with key national and local grassroots organizations that  have strong connections to their communities.
Although the effects of the Bureau’s communication efforts are difficult to  measure, the Bureau reported some positive results from its 2000 Census  marketing efforts with respect to raising awareness.  For example, four  population groups—non-Hispanic Blacks, non-Hispanic Whites, Asians,  and Native Hawaiians indicated they were more likely to return the census  form after the 2000 Census Partnership and Marketing Program than  before its onset.  However, the Bureau also reported that the 2000 Census  Partnership and Marketing Program had mixed success in favorably  impacting actual participation in the census.
Of the various campaign components, the Census in Schools and  partnership programs are specifically aimed at hard-to-count populations.   The Census in Schools program provides curriculum and teaching  materials that introduce students to the purpose and importance of the  census as well as census activities and products.  The program is also  designed to engage students to encourage their parents to complete and  return their census questionnaires.
According to Bureau officials, although the Census in Schools program is  not as extensive as the one conducted in the last decennial, they made a  number of changes based on lessons learned from the 2000 Census.  For  example, the program will spend less on printing and base their 2010  Census materials on materials used for the 2000 Census rather than create  new materials from scratch.  Moreover, similar to 2000, the Bureau is not  reaching out to all schools but instead plans to target schools with large  hard-to-count populations.  Lower grades will be targeted as well, as  Bureau officials believe their message has more traction with younger  students.
Under the partnership program, the Bureau plans to hire specialists to  collaborate with local individuals and organizations, leveraging their  knowledge and expertise to increase participation in the census within  their communities.  Partnership specialists are to be trained in, and help  implement, various aspects of the census, as well as to reach out to key  government and community leaders and gain commitments from  community organizations to help the Bureau execute the enumeration.
section_title: Reaching Out to Undercounted Populations Using Special Enumeration Activities
paragraphs: The Bureau operates a wide range of special enumeration programs—such  as Be Counted, Questionnaire Assistance Centers (QAC) and Service- Based Enumeration—that target hard-to-count populations.  Other  activities, such as offering in-language questionnaires and replacement  questionnaire mailings for nonresponding households, can help increase  participation in non-English speaking populations as well as residents in  areas with historically low responses rates.
subsections: section_title: Be Counted program and Questionnaire Assistance Centers
paragraphs: The Bureau developed the Be Counted program to enumerate people who  believe they did not receive a census questionnaire, or were otherwise not  included in the census.  The Be Counted form is a questionnaire intended  to be placed in public locations such as stores, libraries, and other places  where people congregate (see figure 5).  QAC staff help people complete  their Be Counted forms as well as other census forms. Census officials  reported that approximately 560,000 people were enumerated through the  Be Counted program in 2000 that might have otherwise been missed.   Additionally, a Bureau evaluation found that Be Counted forms were more  likely to include members of minority groups and children—two  traditionally undercounted populations—when compared to the  traditional mail forms.  Plans for the 2010 decennial include 30,000 QAC  sites (a 25 percent increase over the 2000 Census) and 40,000 Be Counted  sites, which are oftentimes co-located with QACs but can be stand-alone  sites.  Partnership specialists are to help determine the location of the  sites, which are to be operational for 4 weeks during the 2010 Census.  The  Be Counted forms are to be available in English, Chinese, Korean, Russian,  Spanish, and Vietnamese.
The Bureau developed the Service-Based Enumeration program (SBE) for  the 2000 Census to provide the homeless and others without conventional  housing an opportunity to be included in the census.  The program  involves visiting selected service locations such as shelters, soup kitchens  and regularly scheduled mobile food vans that serve people without  conventional housing.  The Bureau reported that during the 2000 Census,  the large percentages of historically undercounted populations were  among the 171,000 people in emergency and transitional shelters  enumerated through the program.  For 2010, the Bureau plans to conduct  address list updates of SBE locations by obtaining information about SBEs  from the Internet and soliciting information from government agencies  and advocacy organizations.
section_title: In-Language Questionnaires and Other Efforts
paragraphs: The Bureau intends to notify respondents through the Integrated  Communications Campaign that if a questionnaire in one of the 5  languages other than English (Chinese, Korean, Russian, Spanish, or  Vietnamese) is needed, the respondent should call the number provided on  the questionnaire.  The Bureau plans to provide language assistance guides  for 59 languages, an increase from 49 languages in 2000.  New in 2010, the  Bureau plans to send bilingual questionnaires to approximately 13 million  households that are likely to need Spanish assistance, as determined by  analyzing recent data from the American Community Survey (a related  Bureau survey program).  Moreover, for 2010, the Bureau plans a multi- part approach for replacement mailings that includes a blanket mailing of  approximately 25-30 million replacement questionnaires to census tracts  with low response rates several weeks after the initial questionnaire  mailing.
section_title: Challenges and Opportunities to Reduce Undercount
paragraphs: Although each of the operations I’ve described can position the Bureau to  address the undercount, they also face challenges and uncertainties that, if  not adequately resolved, could reduce the effectiveness of the Bureau’s  efforts.
For example, with respect to address canvassing, the Bureau plans to  provide listers with GPS-equipped handheld computers (HHC) to verify  and correct addresses.  Consequently, the performance of the HHCs is  critical to the accurate, timely, and cost-effective completion of address  canvassing.  However, the Bureau’s ability to collect and transmit address  and mapping data using the HHC is not known.  For example, the 2008  Dress Rehearsal—which was an opportunity for the Bureau to conduct  development and testing of systems and prepare for the 2010 Census— revealed a number of technical problems with the HHC that included  freeze-ups and data transmission issues.   The problems with the HHC  prompted the Bureau to make major design changes, and a limited field  test is scheduled for December 2008 (GAO is making plans to observe this  test).  However, if after this test the HHC is found to be unreliable, the  Bureau will have little time to make any refinements.
Operations that were not tested during the Dress Rehearsal also introduce  risks.  These operations include the Be Counted program, Service-Based  Enumeration, and Group Quarters Enumeration.  Although the Bureau  employed these operations during the 2000 Census, the Dress Rehearsal  afforded the Bureau an opportunity to see how they might perform in  concert with other activities planned for 2010, as well as identify  improvements that could enhance their effectiveness.
The Integrated Communications Campaign faces its own set of challenges,  chief among which is the long-standing issue of converting awareness of  the census to an actual response.  As a rough illustration of this challenge,  various polls conducted for the 2000 Census suggested that the public’s  awareness of the census was over 90 percent.  Yet, as noted earlier, (1) the  actual return rate was much lower—around 74 percent of the nation’s  households, and (2) the Bureau’s evaluation of the  2000 Census  Partnership and Marketing Program found that it only had mixed success  in encouraging actual participation.
With respect to the partnership program, the Bureau plans to have 144  partnership staff, including specialists, on-board nationwide by the end of  September 2008, and ramp up to 680 partnership staff by 2010.  According  to Bureau officials, although this level of staffing is about the same as for  the 2000 Census, the Bureau believes it is sufficient, and plans to deploy  the partnership specialists more strategically by allocating more  partnership specialists to regions with large hard-to-count populations.   For example, the Atlanta region, (which includes Florida, Alabama, and  Georgia), had 50 partnership specialists in 2000, but is to receive more  than 70 partnership specialists in 2010.  Although the strategic deployment  is a reasonable approach, the impact of the reallocation on those regions  that will receive fewer partnership specialists is unclear.
Our evaluation of the 2000 Census Partnership Program found that there  were mixed views regarding the adequacy of specialists staffing levels.   Although partnership specialists we spoke to generally agreed that the  Bureau hired enough specialists to carry out their activities, the managers  of local census offices we interviewed noted that the partnership  specialists' heavy workload may have limited the level of support they  were able to provide.  In 2010, to the extent that partnership specialists in  regions with lower staffing levels wind up working with as many or more  groups compared to 2000, or need to cover large geographic areas, they  could find themselves thinly spread.
Our observations during the 2000 Census highlighted some best practices  that appeared to be key to successful partnership engagements, and might  help the Bureau refine its partnering efforts in 2010.  For example, best  practices for partners include (1) identifying ‘census champions’ (i.e.,  people who will actively support the census and encourage others to do  so), (2) integrating census-related efforts into partners’ existing activities  and events, and (3) leveraging resources by working with other partners  and customizing census promotional materials to better resonate with  local populations.  For the Bureau, best practices include (1) providing  adequate and timely information, guidance, and other resources to local  partners on how they can support the census; (2) maintaining open  communications with partners; and (3) encouraging the early involvement  of partners in census activities.
Another challenge lies in staying on schedule.  In order to meet legally  mandated data reporting requirements, census activities need to take place  at specific times and in the proper sequence.  For example, the Group  Quarters Validation operation needs to be completed after the Address  Canvassing operation; the Questionnaire Assistance Centers need to be  properly staffed, equipped, and opened by a particular date; advertising  needs to be synchronized with various phases of the enumeration; and the  questionnaires and replacement mailings all need to be carried out at the  right time.  Given the tight deadlines, small glitches could cascade into  significant problems with downstream operations.
Another challenge will be to develop management information systems  capable of tracking key operations to enable the Bureau to quickly address  trouble spots.  The Bureau did this successfully in 2000 with the system it  used to track local census offices’ progress in meeting their recruiting  goals.  At those offices where recruiting was found to be lagging, the  Bureau was able to quickly raise pay rates and take other actions that  enabled the Bureau to meet its goal.  Less successful was the management  information system used to track the Bureau’s partnership efforts in 2000,  which was found to be slow and not user-friendly, among other  shortcomings, which limited its use as an effective management tool.  For  2010, the Bureau intends to use a Web-based system that will enable it to  manage the partnerships in real-time and determine, among other things,  whether staff need to be redirected or reallocated.
section_title: Potential Impact of Undercounts on Federal Funding
paragraphs: Our past work indicates that the accuracy of state and local population  estimates may have an effect, though modest, on the allocation of grant  funds among the states. Many of the formulas used to allocate grant funds  rely upon measures of population, often in combination with other factors.   In our June 2006 report, we analyzed the sensitivity of Social Services  Block Grants (SSBG) to alternative population estimates, such as those  derived by statistical methods that incorporate the number of people that  were overcounted and undercounted in the census, rather than the actual  census.
To analyze the prospective impact of estimated population counts on the  money allocated to the states through SSBG, we recalculated the state  allocations using statistical estimates of the population that were  developed for the 1990 and 2000 Censuses in lieu of the actual census  numbers.  We used the population estimates, which are based on the 2000  Census counts, and then adjusted these population estimates by the  difference between the 2000 official population counts and the statistical  estimates of the population.
We selected SSBG for our analysis because the formula for this block  grant program, which was based solely on population, and the resulting  funding allocations, were particularly sensitive to such alternative  population estimates.   In short, as shown in figure 6, in 2004, 27 states and  the District of Columbia would have gained $4.2 million and 23 states  would have lost $4.2 million of the $1.7 billion in SSBG funding. Based on  our simulation of the funding formula for this block grant program, the  largest percentage changes were for Washington, D.C., which would have  gained 2.05 percent (or $67,000) in grant funding, and Minnesota, which  would have lost 1.17 percent (or $344,000).  While the shifting of these  funding amounts may not seem significant in total, using an inaccurate  count to allocate grant funds could adversely impact some states’ ability to  provide services to their residents.  Reducing the undercount will alleviate  this potentially adverse impact to states.
This simulation was done for illustrative purposes only—to demonstrate  the sensitivity of government programs to alternative population estimates  that incorporate the number of people that were overcounted and  undercounted in the census.  Only the actual census numbers should be  used for official purposes.  This illustration further emphasizes the  importance of an accurate decennial count.
section_title: Concluding Observations
paragraphs: The Bureau’s strategy for reducing the differential undercount appears to  be comprehensive, integrated, and based on lessons learned from the 2000  Census.   If each of the various components is implemented as planned,  they will likely position the Bureau to address the differential undercount.   Still, the various programs we examined are generally in the planning or  early implementation stages, and a number of uncertainties and challenges  lie ahead as the activities become operational.  Indeed, past experience  has shown how the decennial census is an enormous and complex  endeavor with numerous moving parts, and any shortcomings or missteps  can have significant consequences for the ultimate cost or accuracy of the  enumeration.
With this in mind, the success of the Bureau’s efforts aimed at the hard-to- count will depend in large part on the extent to which they (1) start and  finish on schedule, (2) are implemented in the proper sequence, (3) are  adequately tested, and (4) receive appropriate staffing and funding.  It will  also be important for the Bureau to have a real-time monitoring capability  to track the progress of the enumeration, target the Bureau’s resources to  where they are most needed, and to quickly respond to various  contingencies that could jeopardize the accuracy or cost of the count.  In  the months ahead, it will be important for Congress and the Bureau to  continue to focus on these issues, as well as to be alert to newly emerging  challenges.
Chairman Carper, Senator Coburn, and Members of the Subcommittee,  this concludes my prepared statement.  I would be happy to respond to  any questions you may have.
If you have any questions on matters discussed in this testimony, please  contact Robert Goldenkoff at (202) 512-2757 or by email at  goldenkoffr@gao.gov.  Other key contributors to this testimony include  Ronald Fecso, Chief Statistician; Signora May, Assistant Director;   Nicholas Alexander; Thomas Beall; Sarah Farkas; Richard Hung; Andrea  Levine; Lisa Pearson; Sonya Phillips; Timothy Wexler; and Katherine  Wulff.
section_title: Related GAO Products
paragraphs: 2010 Census: Census Bureau’s Decision to Continue with Handheld  Computers for Address Canvassing Makes Planning and Testing  Critical. GAO-08-936. Washington, D.C.: July 31, 2008.  2010 Census: Plans for Decennial Census Operations and Technology  Have Progressed, But Much Uncertainty Remains. GAO-08-886T.  Washington, D.C.: June 11, 2008.  2010 Census: Bureau Needs to Specify How It Will Assess Coverage  Follow-up Techniques and When It Will Produce Coverage Measurement  Results. GAO-08-414. Washington, D.C.: April 15, 2008.  2010 Census: Population Measures Are Important for Federal Funding  Allocations. GAO-08-230T. Washington, D.C.: October 29, 2007.  2010 Census: Diversity in Human Capital, Outreach Efforts Can Benefit  the 2010 Census. GAO-07-1132T. Washington, D.C.: July 26, 2007.  2010 Census: Census Bureau Has Improved the Local Update of Census  Addresses Program, but Challenges Remain. GAO-07-736. Washington,  D.C.: June 14, 2007.  2010 Census: Redesigned Approach Holds Promise, but Census Bureau  Needs to Annually Develop and Provide a Comprehensive Project Plan to  Monitor Costs. GAO-06-1009T. Washington, D.C.: July 27, 2006.
Federal Assistance: Illustrative Simulations of Using Statistical  Population Estimates for Reallocating Certain Federal Funding. GAO- 06-567. Washington, D.C.: June 22, 2006.  2010 Census: Planning and Testing Activities Are Making Progress.  GAO-06-465T. Washington, D.C.: March 1, 2006.  2010 Census: Basic Design Has Potential, but Remaining Challenges  Need Prompt Resolution. GAO-05-9. Washington, D.C.: January 12, 2005.
Decennial Census: Lessons Learned for Locating and Counting Migrant  and Seasonal Farm Workers. GAO-03-605. Washington, D.C.: July 3, 2003.
Decennial Census: Methods for Collecting and Reporting Data on the  Homeless and Others without Conventional Housing Need Refinement.  GAO-03-227. Washington, D.C.: January 17, 2003.  2000 Census: Review of Partnership Program Highlights Best Practices  for Future Operations. GAO-01-579. Washington, D.C.: August 20, 2001.
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