Aviation Weather: FAA and the National Weather Service Are Considering Plans to Consolidate Weather Service Offices, But Face Significant Challenges
Published: 2009-07-16T00:00:00

Fast Facts:

Highlights:
section_title: Why GAO Did This Study
paragraphs: The National Weather Service's (NWS) weather products are a vital component of the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) air traffic control system. In addition to providing aviation weather products developed at its own facilities, NWS also provides staff onsite at each of FAA's en route centers--the facilities that control high-altitude flight outside the airport tower and terminal areas. Over the last few years, FAA and NWS have been exploring options for enhancing the efficiency of the aviation weather services provided at en route centers. GAO was asked to summarize its draft report that (1) determines the status and plans of efforts to restructure the center weather service units, (2) evaluates efforts to establish a baseline of the current performance provided by these units, and (3) evaluates challenges to restructuring them.
section_title: What GAO Found
paragraphs: NWS and FAA are considering plans to restructure the way aviation weather services are provided at en route centers, but it is not yet clear whether and how these changes will be implemented. In 2005, FAA requested that NWS restructure its services by consolidating operations to a smaller number of sites, reducing personnel costs, and providing services 24 hours a day, seven days a week. NWS developed two successive proposals, both of which were rejected by FAA--most recently because the costs were too high. FAA subsequently requested that NWS develop another proposal by late December 2008. In response, NWS developed a third proposal that involves consolidating 20 of 21 existing center weather service units into 2 locations. NWS sent this proposal to FAA in early June 2009. FAA officials stated that they plan to respond to NWS's proposal in early August 2009. In response to GAO's prior concerns that NWS and FAA lacked performance measures and a baseline of current performance, the agencies have agreed on five measures and NWS has proposed eight others. In addition, the agencies initiated efforts to establish a performance baseline for 4 of 13 potential performance measures. However, the agencies have not established baseline performance for the other 9 measures. NWS officials stated that they are not collecting baseline information on the 9 measures for a variety of reasons, including that some of the measures have not yet been approved by FAA, and that selected measures involve products that have not yet been developed. While 4 of the 9 measures are tied to new products or services that are to be developed if NWS's latest restructuring proposal is accepted, the other 5 could be measured in the current operational environment. For example, both forecast accuracy and customer satisfaction measures are applicable to current operations. It is important to obtain an understanding of the current level of performance in these measures before beginning any efforts to restructure aviation weather services. Without an understanding of the current level of performance, NWS and FAA may not be able to measure the success of any changes they make to the center weather service unit operations. As a result, any changes to the current structure could degrade aviation operations and safety--and the agencies may not know it. NWS and FAA face challenges in their efforts to improve the current aviation weather structure. These include challenges associated with (1) interagency collaboration, (2) defining FAA's requirements, and (3) aligning any changes with the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen)--a long-term initiative to increase the efficiency of the national airspace system. If the restructuring proposal is accepted, the agencies face three additional challenges in implementing it: (1) developing a feasible schedule that includes adequate time for stakeholder involvement, (2) undertaking a comprehensive demonstration to ensure no services are degraded, and (3) effectively reconfiguring the infrastructure and technologies to the new structure. Unless and until these challenges are addressed, the proposed restructuring of aviation weather services at en route centers has a reducedchance of success.

section_title: Letter
paragraphs: Thank you for the opportunity to participate in today’s hearing on the  proposed changes to the aviation weather services provided at the Federal  Aviation Administration’s (FAA) en route centers. The National Weather  Service (NWS) plays a significant role in providing weather services to the  aviation community. NWS’s weather products and data are vital  components of FAA’s air traffic control system, providing weather  information to local, regional, and national air traffic management,  navigation, and surveillance systems. NWS aviation weather products  include forecasts and warnings of meteorological conditions that could  affect air traffic, including thunderstorms, air turbulence, and icing. In  addition to providing aviation weather products that are developed at its  own facilities, NWS also provides staff on-site at each of FAA’s en route  centers—the facilities that control high-altitude flight outside the airport  tower and terminal areas. This group of NWS meteorologists—called a  center weather service unit—provides air traffic staff with forecasts,  advisories, and periodic weather briefings on regional conditions.
Over the last few years, FAA and NWS have been exploring options for  enhancing the efficiency of the aviation weather services provided at en  route centers. In September 2005, FAA asked NWS to restructure its  services to be more efficient. Since then, NWS has developed and  submitted two proposals to FAA, both of which were rejected. NWS  subsequently submitted another proposal. As requested, this statement  summarizes our draft report that (1) determines the status and plans of  efforts to restructure the center weather service units, (2) evaluates efforts  to establish a baseline of the current performance provided by the center  weather service units so that FAA and NWS can ensure that any  operational changes do not degrade aviation weather services, and (3)  evaluates challenges to restructuring the center weather service units.
In preparing our draft report and this testimony, we reviewed NWS’s  proposals and transition plans for restructuring the service units and  FAA’s response to NWS’s proposals. We identified both agencies’ efforts to  establish a baseline of current performance and compared these efforts to  government guidance and best practices of leading organizations in  performance management. To identify challenges, we compared the  agencies’ plans with best practices of leading organizations in system  development, interagency collaboration, and architecture planning. We  also interviewed relevant agency officials. All of our work for this report  was performed in accordance with generally accepted government  auditing standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the  audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable  basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We  believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our  findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. A more detailed  description of the scope and methodology of our draft report is provided  in attachment 1.
subsections: section_title: Background
paragraphs: FAA is responsible for ensuring safe, orderly, and efficient air travel in the  national airspace system. NWS supports FAA by providing aviation-related  forecasts and warnings at air traffic facilities across the country. Among  other support and services, NWS provides four meteorologists at each of  FAA’s 21 en route centers to provide on-site aviation weather services.  This arrangement is defined and funded under an interagency agreement.
subsections: section_title: FAA’s Mission and Organizational Structure
paragraphs: FAA’s primary mission is to ensure safe, orderly, and efficient air travel in  the national airspace system. FAA reported that, in 2007, air traffic in the  national airspace system exceeded 46 million flights and 776 million  passengers. In addition, at any one time, as many as 7,000 aircraft—both  civilian and military—could be aloft over the United States. In 2004, FAA’s  Air Traffic Organization was formed to, among other responsibilities,  improve the provision of air traffic services. More than 33,000 employees  within FAA’s Air Traffic Organization support the operations that help  move aircraft through the national airspace system. The agency’s ability to  fulfill its mission depends on the adequacy and reliability of its air traffic  control systems, as well as weather forecasts made available by NWS and  automated systems. These resources reside at, or are associated with,  several types of facilities: air traffic control towers, terminal radar  approach control facilities, air route traffic control centers (en route  centers), and the Air Traffic Control System Command Center. The  number and functions of these facilities are as follows:    517 air traffic control towers manage and control the airspace within  about 5 miles of an airport. They control departures and landings, as well  as ground operations on airport taxiways and runways.    170 terminal radar approach control facilities provide air traffic control  services for airspace within approximately 40 miles of an airport and  generally up to 10,000 feet above the airport, where en route centers’  control begins. Terminal controllers establish and maintain the sequence  and separation of aircraft.    21 en route centers control planes over the United States—in transit and  during approaches to some airports. Each center handles a different  region of airspace. En route centers operate the computer suite that  processes radar surveillance and flight planning data, reformats it for  presentation purposes, and sends it to display equipment that is used by  controllers to track aircraft. The centers control the switching of voice  communications between aircraft and the center, as well as between the  center and other air traffic control facilities. Three of these en route  centers also control air traffic over the oceans.
The Air Traffic Control System Command Center manages the flow of air  traffic within the United States. This facility regulates air traffic when  weather, equipment, runway closures, or other conditions place stress on  the national airspace system. In these instances, traffic management  specialists at the command center take action to modify traffic demands in  order to keep traffic within system capacity.
See figure 1 for a visual summary of the facilities that control and manage  air traffic over the United States.
section_title: NWS’s Mission and Organizational Structure
paragraphs: The mission of NWS—an agency within the Department of Commerce’s  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)—is to provide  weather, water, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States,  its territories, and its adjacent waters and oceans to protect life and  property and to enhance the national economy. In addition, NWS is the  official source of aviation- and marine-related weather forecasts and  warnings, as well as warnings about life-threatening weather situations.
The coordinated activities of weather facilities throughout the United  States allow NWS to deliver a broad spectrum of climate, weather, water,  and space weather services in support of its mission. These facilities  include 122 weather forecast offices located across the country that  provide a wide variety of weather, water, and climate services for their  local county warning areas, including advisories, warnings, and forecasts;  9 national prediction centers that provide nationwide computer modeling  to all NWS field offices; and 21 center weather service units that are  located at FAA en route centers across the nation and provide  meteorological support to air traffic controllers.
section_title: NWS Provides Aviation Weather Services to FAA
paragraphs: As an official source of aviation weather forecasts and warnings, several  NWS facilities provide aviation weather products and services to FAA and  the aviation sector. These facilities include the Aviation Weather Center,  weather forecast offices located across the country, and 21 center weather  service units located at FAA en route centers across the country.
subsections: section_title: Aviation Weather Center
paragraphs: The Aviation Weather Center located in Kansas City, Missouri, issues  warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous weather for aviation.  Staffed by 65 personnel, the center develops warnings of hazardous  weather for aircraft in flight and forecasts of weather conditions for the  next 2 days that could affect both domestic and international aviation. The  center also produces a Collaborative Convective Forecast Product, a  graphical representation of convective occurrence at 2-, 4-, and 6-hours.  This is used by FAA to manage aviation traffic flow across the country.  The Aviation Weather Center’s key products are described in table 1.
NWS’s 122 weather forecast offices issue terminal area forecasts for  approximately 625 locations every 6 hours or when conditions change,  consisting of the expected weather conditions significant to a given airport  or terminal area and are primarily used by commercial and general  aviation pilots.
section_title: Center Weather Service Units
paragraphs: NWS’s center weather service units are located at each of FAA’s 21 en  route centers and operate 16 hours a day, 7 days a week (see fig. 2). Each  center weather service unit usually consists of three meteorologists and a  meteorologist-in-charge who provide strategic advice and aviation weather  forecasts to FAA traffic management personnel. Governed by an  interagency agreement, FAA currently reimburses NWS approximately $12  million annually for this support.
section_title: Center Weather Service Units: An Overview of Systems and Operations
paragraphs: The meteorologists at the center weather service units use a variety of  systems to gather and analyze information compiled from NWS and FAA  weather sensors. Key systems used to compile weather information  include FAA’s Weather and Radar Processor, FAA’s Integrated Terminal  Weather System, FAA’s Corridor Integrated Weather System, and a remote  display of NWS’s Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System.  Meteorologists at several center weather service units also use NWS’s  National Center Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System. Table 2  provides a description of selected systems.
NWS meteorologists at the en route centers provide several products and  services to the FAA staff, including meteorological impact statements,  center weather advisories, periodic briefings, and on-demand  consultations. These products and services are described in table 3. In  addition, center weather service unit meteorologists receive and  disseminate pilot reports, provide input every 2 hours to the Aviation  Weather Center’s creation of the Collaborative Convective Forecast  Product, train FAA personnel on how to interpret weather information,  and provide weather briefings to nearby terminal radar approach control  facilities and air traffic control towers.
section_title: FAA Seeks to Improve Aviation Weather Services Provided at En Route Centers
paragraphs: In recent years, FAA has undertaken multiple initiatives to assess and  improve the performance of the center weather service units. Studies  conducted in 2003 and 2006 highlighted concerns with the lack of  standardization of products and services at NWS’s center weather service  units. To address these concerns, the agency sponsored studies that  determined that weather data could be provided remotely using current  technologies, and that private sector vendors could provide these services.  In 2005, the agency requested that NWS restructure its aviation weather  services by consolidating its center weather service units to a smaller  number of sites, reducing personnel costs, and providing products and  services 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. NWS subsequently submitted a  proposal for restructuring its services, but FAA declined the proposal  citing the need to refine its requirements.
In December 2007, FAA issued revised requirements and asked NWS to  respond with proposals defining the technical and cost implications of  three operational concepts. The three concepts involved (1) on-site  services provided within the existing configuration of offices located at  the 21 en route centers, (2) remote services provided by a reduced number  of regional facilities, and (3) remote services provided by a single  centralized facility. NWS responded with three proposals, but FAA  rejected these proposals in September 2008, noting that while elements of  each proposal had merit, the proposed costs were too high. FAA requested  that NWS revise its proposal to bring costs down while stating a  preference to move towards a single center weather service unit with a  back-up site.
As a separate initiative, NWS initiated an improvement program for the  center weather service units in April 2008. The goal of the program was to  improve the consistency of the units’ products and services. This program  involved standardizing the technology, collaboration, and training for all  21 center weather service units and conducting site visits to evaluate each  unit. NWS reported that it has completed its efforts to standardize the  service units and plans to complete its site visits by September 2009. Table  4 provides a chronology of the agencies’ assessment and improvement  efforts.
section_title: Prior GAO Report Identified Concerns with Center Weather Service Units; Recommended Steps to Improve Quality Assurance
paragraphs: In January 2008, we reported on concerns about inconsistencies in  products and quality among center weather service units. We noted that  while both NWS and FAA have responsibilities for assuring and controlling  the quality of aviation weather observations, neither agency monitored the  accuracy and quality of the aviation weather products provided at center  weather service units. We recommended that NWS and FAA develop  performance measures and metrics for the products and services to be  provided by center weather service units, perform annual evaluations of  aviation weather services provided at en route centers, and provide  feedback to the center weather service units. The Department of  Commerce agreed with our recommendations, and the Department of  Transportation stated that FAA planned to revise its requirements and that  these would establish performance measures and evaluation procedures.
section_title: Proposal to Consolidate Center Weather Service Units Is Under Consideration
paragraphs: NWS and FAA are considering plans to restructure the way aviation  weather services are provided at en route centers. After a 6-month delay,  NWS sent FAA its latest proposal for restructuring the center weather  service units in June 2009. NWS’s proposal involves consolidating 20 of  the 21 existing center weather service units into 2 locations, with one at  the Aviation Weather Center in Kansas City, Missouri and the other at a  new National Centers for Environmental Prediction office planned for the  DC metropolitan area of Maryland. The Missouri center is expected to  handle the southern half of the United States while the Maryland center is  expected to handle the northern half of the United States. NWS plans for  the two new units to be staffed 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and to  function as backup sites for each other. These new units would continue  to use existing forecasting systems and tools to develop products and  services. See figure 3 for a visual summary of the proposed consolidated  center weather service unit facilities that control and manage air traffic  over the United States.
While these new units would continue to use existing forecasting systems  and tools to develop products and services, NWS has also proposed new  products, services, and tools. Two new products are the Collaborative  Weather Impact Product and the terminal radar approach control forecast.  The former is expected to expand the Aviation Weather Center’s existing  Collaborative Convective Forecast Product to include convection,  turbulence, icing, wind, ceiling/visibility, and precipitation type/intensity.
The latter is expected to extract data from the Collaborative Weather  Impact Product and include precipitation, winds, and convection for the  terminal area; the display will allow the forecaster to layer this information  on air traffic management information such as jet routes. In addition, NW S  plans to create a web portal to allow FAA and other users to access its  advisories, forecasts, and products as well as national, regional, and lo weather briefings. To support on-demand briefings at the new center  weather service units, NWS plans to use collaboration instant messaging and online collaboration software.
Given the reduced number of locations in the revised organizational  structure, NWS also proposed reducing the number of personnel need support its operations from 84 to 50 full time staff—a reduction of 34  positions. Specifically, the agency determined that it will require 20 staff  members for each of the new center weather service units; 4 staff  members at the Alaska unit; 5 additional forecasters at the Aviation  Weather Center to help prepare the Collaborative Weather Impact  Product; and a quality assurance manager at NWS headquarters. NWS  anticipates the staff reductions will be achieved through scheduled  retirements, resignations, and reassignments. However, the agency has  identified the transition of its existing workforce to the new centers as a  high-impact risk because staff may decline to move to the new locations.
NWS also proposed tentative time frames for transitioning to the new  organizational structure over a 3-year period. During the first year after  FAA accepts the proposal, NWS plans to develop a transition plan and  conduct a 9-month demonstration of the concept in order to ensure that  the new structure will not degrade its services. Agency officials estim that initial operating capability would be achieved by the end of the  second year after FAA approval and full operating capability by the end of  the third year.
NWS estimated the transition costs for this proposal at approxim $12.8 million, which includes approximately $3.3 million for the  demonstration. In addition, NWS estimated that the annual recurring cos will be about 21 percent lower than current annual costs. For example,  using 2009 prices, NWS estimated that the new structure would cost $9.7  million—about $2.6 million less than the current $12.3 million cost. See  table 5 for the estimated costs for transitioning the centers.
section_title: NWS and FAA Are Working to Establish a Baseline of Current Performance, but Are Not Assessing Key Measures
paragraphs: According to best practices in leading organizations, performance should  be measured in order to evaluate the success or failure of programs.  Performance measurement involves identifying performance goals and  measures, establishing performance baselines, identifying targets for  improving performance, and measuring progress against those targets.  Having a clear understanding of an organization’s current performance—a  baseline—is essential to determining whether new initiatives (like the  proposed restructuring) result in improved or degraded products and  services.
In January 2008, we reported that NWS and FAA lacked performance  measures and a baseline of current performance for the center weather  service units and recommended that they develop performance measures.  In response to this recommendation, FAA established five performance  standards for the center weather service units. FAA also recommended  that NWS identify additional performance measures in its proposal for  restructuring the center weather service units. While NWS subsequently  identified eight additional performance measures in its proposal, FAA has  not yet approved these measures. All 13 performance measures are listed  in table 6.
NWS officials reported that they have historical data for one of the 13  performance measures—participation in the Collaborative Convective  Forecast Product—and are working to obtain a baseline for three other  performance measures. Specifically, in January 2009, NWS and FAA began  evaluating how the center weather service units are performing and, as  part of this initiative, are collecting data associated with organizational  service provision, format consistency, and briefing service provision. As of  June 2009, the agencies had completed evaluations of 13 service units and  plan to complete evaluations for all 21 service units by September 2009.
However, the agencies have not established a baseline of performance for  the 9 other performance measures. NWS officials reported that they are  not collecting baseline information for a variety of reasons, including that  the measures have not yet been approved by FAA, and that selected  measures involve products that have not yet been developed. A summary  of the status of efforts to establish baselines and reasons for not  establishing baselines is provided in table 7.
While 4 of the potential measures are tied to new products or services  under the restructuring, the other 5 could be measured using current  products and services. For example, accuracy and customer satisfaction  are measures that could be tracked for current operations. NWS  continually measures the accuracy of a range of weather products— including hurricane and tornado forecasts. Customer satisfaction  measures could be determined by surveying the FAA managers who  receive the aviation weather products.
It is important to obtain an understanding of the current level of  performance in these measures before beginning any efforts to restructure  aviation weather services. Without an understanding of the current level of  performance, NWS and FAA will not be able to measure the success or  failure of any changes they make to the center weather service unit  operations. As a result, any changes to the current structure could degrade  aviation operations and safety—and the agencies may not know it.
section_title: NWS and FAA Face Challenges in Efforts to Modify the Current Aviation Weather Structure
paragraphs: NWS and FAA face challenges in their efforts to modify the current  aviation weather structure. These include challenges associated with (1)  interagency collaboration, (2) defining requirements, and (3) aligning any  changes with the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen)— a long-term initiative to increase the efficiency of the national airspace  system. Specifically, the two agencies have had difficulties in interagency  collaboration and requirements development leading to an inability to  reach agreement on a way forward. In addition, the restructuring  proposals have not been aligned with the national strategic vision for the  future air transportation system. Looking forward, if a proposal is  accepted, the agencies could face three additional challenges in  implementing the proposal, including (1) developing a feasible schedule  that includes adequate time for stakeholder involvement, (2) undertaking a  comprehensive demonstration to ensure no services are degraded, and (3)  effectively reconfiguring the infrastructure and technologies to the new  structure. Unless and until these challenges are addressed, the proposed  restructuring of aviation weather services at en route centers has a  reduced chance of success.
subsections: section_title: Interagency Collaboration
paragraphs: To date, FAA and NWS have encountered challenges in interagency  collaboration. We have previously reported on key practices that can help  enhance and sustain interagency collaboration. The practices generally  consist of two or more agencies defining a common outcome, establishing  joint strategies to achieve the outcome, agreeing upon agency roles and  responsibilities, establishing compatible policies and procedures to  operate across agency boundaries, and developing mechanisms to  monitor, evaluate, and report the results of collaborative efforts.
While NWS and FAA have established policies and procedures for  operating across agencies through an interagency agreement and have  initiated efforts to establish a baseline of performance for selected  measures through their ongoing site evaluations, the agencies have not  defined a common outcome, established joint strategies to achieve the  outcome, or agreed upon agency responsibilities. Instead, the agencies  have demonstrated an inability to work together to resolve issues and to  accomplish meaningful change. Specifically, since 2005, FAA has  requested that NWS restructure its aviation weather services three times,  and then rejected NWS’s proposals twice. Further, after requesting  extensions twice, NWS provided its proposal to FAA in June 2009. As a  result, it is now almost 4 years since FAA first initiated efforts to improve  NWS aviation weather services, and the agencies have not yet agreed on  what needs to be changed and how it will be changed. Table 8 lists key  events.
Until the agencies agree on a common outcome, establish joint strategies  to achieve the outcome, and agree on respective agency responsibilities,  they are unlikely to move forward in efforts to restructure weather  services. Without sound interagency collaboration, both FAA and NWS  will continue to spend time and resources proposing and rejecting options  rather than implementing solutions.
section_title: Defining Requirements
paragraphs: The two agencies’ difficulties in determining how to proceed with their  restructuring plans are due in part to a lack of stability in FAA’s  requirements for center weather service units. According to best practices  of leading organizations, requirements describe the functionality needed to  meet user needs and perform as intended in the operational environment.  A disciplined process for developing and managing requirements can help  reduce the risks associated with developing or acquiring a system or  product.
FAA released its revised requirements in December 2007 and NWS  subsequently provided proposals to meet these requirements. However,  FAA rejected all three of NWS’s proposals in September 2008 on the basis  that the costs of the proposals were too high, even though cost was not  specified in FAA’s requirements. NWS’s latest proposal is based on FAA’s  December 2007 requirements as well as detailed discussions held between  the two agencies in October 2008. However, FAA has not revised its  requirements to reflect the guidance it provided to NWS in those  discussions, including reported guidance on handling the Alaska center  and moving to the two-center approach. Without formal requirements  developed prior to the development of the new products and services,  FAA runs the risk of procuring products and services that do not fully  meet their users’ needs or perform as intended. In addition, NWS risks  continued investments in trying to create a product for FAA without clear  information on what the agency wants.
section_title: Alignment with the Next Generation Air Transportation System
paragraphs: Neither FAA nor NWS have ensured that the restructuring of the center  weather service units fits with the national vision for a Next Generation  Air Transportation System (NextGen) —a long-term initiative to transition  FAA from the current radar-based system to an aircraft-centered, satellite- based system. Our prior work on enterprise architectures shows that  connecting strategic planning with program and system solutions can  increase the chances that an organization’s operational and information  technology (IT) environments will be configured to optimize mission  performance. Our experience with federal agencies has shown that  investing in IT without defining these investments in the context of a  larger, strategic vision often results in systems that are duplicative, not  well integrated, and unnecessarily costly to maintain and interface.
The Joint Planning and Development Office is responsible for planning  and coordinating NextGen. As part of this program, the Joint Planning and  Development Office envisions restructuring air traffic facilities, including  en route centers, across the country as well as a transitioning to new  technologies. However, NWS and FAA efforts to restructure the center  weather service units have not been aligned with the Joint Planning and  Development Office’s vision for transforming air traffic control under the  NextGen program. Specifically, the chair of NextGen’s weather group  stated that Joint Planning and Development Office officials have not  evaluated NWS and FAA’s plans for restructuring the center weather  service units, nor have they been asked to do so.
Other groups within FAA are responsible for aligning the agency’s  enterprise architecture with the NextGen vision through annual roadmaps  that define near-term initiatives. However, recent roadmaps for aviation  weather do not include any discussion of plans to restructure the center  weather service units or the potential impact that such a change could  have on aviation weather systems. Additionally, in its proposal, NWS  stated that it followed FAA’s guidance to avoid tightly linking the  transition schedule to NextGen’s expected initial operating capability in  2013, but recommended doing so since the specific role of the center  weather service units in NextGen operations is unknown.
Until the agencies ensure that changes to the center weather service units  fit within the strategic-level and implementation plans for NextGen, any  changes to the current structure could result in wasted efforts and  resources.
section_title: Schedule Development
paragraphs: Looking forward, if a proposal is accepted, both agencies could also face  challenges in developing a feasible schedule that includes adequate time  for stakeholder involvement. NWS estimated a 3-year transition time frame  from current operations to the two-center approach. FAA officials  commented that they would like to have the two-center approach in place  by 2012. However, NWS may have difficulty in meeting the transition  timeframes because activities that need to be conducted serially are  planned concurrently within the 3-year schedule. For example, NWS may  need to negotiate with its union before implementing changes that affect  working conditions—such as moving operations from an en route center  to a remote location. NWS officials acknowledge the risk that these  negotiations can be prolonged and sometimes take years to complete. If  the proposal is accepted, it will be important for NWS to identify activities  that must be conducted before others in order to build a feasible schedule.
section_title: Demonstrating No Degradation of Service
paragraphs: If a proposal is accepted, both agencies could face challenges in  demonstrating that existing services will not be degraded during the  restructuring. In its proposal, NWS identified preliminary plans to  demonstrate the new operational concept before implementing it in order  to ensure that there is no degradation of service. Key steps included  establishing a detailed demonstration plan, conducting risk mitigation  activities, and implementing a demonstration that is to last at least 9  months. NWS also proposed that the demonstration will include an  independent evaluation by a team of government and industry both before  the demonstration, to determine if the demonstration is adequate to  validate the new concept of operations, and after, to determine the  success of the demonstration. In addition, throughout the 9-month  demonstration, NWS plans to have the independent team periodically  provide feedback, recommendations, and corrective actions.
However, as noted earlier, NWS has not yet defined all of the performance  measures it will use to determine whether the prototype is successful. In  its proposal, NWS stated that the agencies will begin to document  performance metrics and develop and refine evaluation criteria during the  demonstration. If NWS waits to define evaluation criteria during the  evaluation, it may not have baseline metrics needed to compare to the  demonstration results. Without baseline metrics, NWS may be unable to  determine whether the demonstration has degraded service or not.
section_title: Technology Transition
paragraphs: Both agencies could face challenges in effectively transitioning the  infrastructure and technologies to the new consolidated structure, if a  proposal is accepted. In its proposal, NWS planned to move its operations  from 20 en route centers to two sites within 3 years. However, to do so, the  agencies will need to modify their aviation weather systems and develop a  communications infrastructure. Specifically, NWS and FAA will need to  modify or acquire systems to allow both current and new products for an  expanded view of the country. Additionally, NWS will need to develop  continuous two-way communications in lieu of having staff onsite at each  en route center. NWS has recognized the infrastructure as a challenge, and  plans to mitigate the risk through continuous dialogue with FAA.  However, if interagency collaboration does not improve, attempting to  coordinate the systems and technology of the two agencies may prove  difficult and further delay the schedule.
section_title: Implementation of Draft Recommendations Should Improve Interagency Approach to Aviation Weather
paragraphs: In our draft report, we are making recommendations to the Secretaries of  Commerce and Transportation to improve the aviation weather products  and services provided at FAA’s en route centers. Specifically, we are  recommending that the Secretaries direct the NWS and FAA  administrators, respectively, to improve their ability to measure  improvements in the center weather service units by establishing and  approving a set of performance measures for the center weather service  units, and by immediately identifying the current level of performance for  the five potential measures that could be identified under current  operations (forecast accuracy, customer satisfaction, service delivery  conformity, timeliness of on-demand services, and training completion) so  that there will be a baseline from which to measure the impact of any  proposed operational changes.
In addition, we are recommending that the Secretaries direct the NWS and  FAA administrators to address specific challenges by  improving interagency collaboration by defining a common outcome,  establishing joint strategies to achieve the outcome, and agreeing upon  each agency’s responsibilities;    establishing and finalizing requirements for aviation weather services at en    ensuring that any proposed organizational changes are aligned with  NextGen initiatives by seeking a review by the Joint Program Development  Office responsible for developing the NextGen vision; and    before moving forward with any proposed operational changes, address  implementation challenges by developing a feasible schedule that includes  adequate time for stakeholder involvement; undertaking a comprehensive  demonstration to ensure no services are degraded; and effectively  transitioning the infrastructure and technologies to the new consolidated  structure.
In summary, for several years, FAA and NWS have explored ways to  improve the operations of the center weather service units by  consolidating operations and providing remote services. Meanwhile, the  two agencies have to make a decision on the interagency agreement,  which will expire at the end of September 2009. If FAA and NWS are to  create a new interagency agreement that incorporates key dates within the  proposal, decisions on the proposal will have to be made quickly.
An important component of any effort to improve operations is a solid  understanding of current performance. However, FAA and NWS are not  working to identify the current level of performance in five measures that  are applicable to current operations. Until the agencies have an  understanding of the current level of performance, they will not be able to  measure the success or failure of any changes to the center weather  service unit operations. As a result, any changes to the current structure  could degrade aviation operations and safety—and the agencies may not  know it.
If the agencies move forward with plans to restructure aviation weather  services, they face significant challenges including a poor record of  interagency collaboration, undocumented requirements, and a lack of  assurance that this plan fits in the broader vision of the Next Generation  Air Transportation System. Moreover, efforts to implement the  restructuring will require a feasible schedule, a comprehensive  demonstration, and a solid plan for technology transition. Until these  challenges are addressed, the proposed restructuring of aviation weather  services at en route centers has little chance of success.
Mr. Chairman and members of the Subcommittee, this concludes my  statement. I would be pleased to respond to any questions that you may  have at this time.
section_title: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments
paragraphs: If you have any questions on matters discussed in this testimony, please  contact David A. Powner at (202) 512-9286 or at pownerd@gao.gov. Other  key contributors to this testimony include Colleen Phillips, Assistant  Director; Gerard Aflague; Kate Agatone; Neil Doherty; Rebecca Eyler; and  Jessica Waselkow.
section_title: Attachment 1: Scope and Methodology
paragraphs: For the draft report on which this testimony is based, we determined the  status of NWS’s plans for restructuring the center weather service units by  reviewing the existing interagency agreement, FAA’s proposed  requirements, and NWS’s draft and final proposals for addressing FAA’s  requirements. We analyzed NWS’s draft transition schedules, cost  proposals, and evaluation plans. We also interviewed NWS and FAA  officials to obtain clarifications on these plans.
To evaluate the agencies’ efforts to establish a baseline of the current  performance provided by center weather service units, we reviewed  documentation including FAA’s performance standards, the current  interagency agreement, NWS’s restructuring proposals and Quality  Assurance Surveillance Plan, and the agencies’ plans for evaluating the  centers. We compared the agencies’ plans for creating a baseline of  current performance with best practices for performance management by  the Department of the Navy and General Services Administration. We also  interviewed NWS and FAA officials involved in establishing a baseline of  current performance provided by center weather service units.
To evaluate challenges to restructuring the center weather service units,  we reviewed agency documentation, including FAA’s requirements  document and NWS’s proposals to restructure the center weather service  units. We also reviewed planning documents for the Next Generation Air  Transportation System. We compared these documents with best practices  for system development and requirements management from the  Capability Maturity Model® Integration for Development; and with GAO’s  best practices in interagency collaboration and architecture planning. In  addition, we interviewed NWS, FAA, and Joint Planning and Development  Office officials regarding challenges to restructuring the center weather  service units.
We performed our work at FAA and NWS headquarters offices, and FAA’s  Air Traffic Control System Command Center in the Washington, D.C.,  metropolitan area. We conducted this performance audit from August 2008  to July 2009, in accordance with generally accepted government auditing  standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to  obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for  our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe  that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for findings and  conclusions based on our audit objectives.
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