Border Security: State Department Is Taking Steps to Meet Projected Surge in Demand for Visas and Passports in Mexico
Published: 2008-07-31T00:00:00

Fast Facts:

Highlights:
section_title: Why GAO Did This Study
paragraphs: In fiscal year 2007, the U.S. Mission in Mexico (Mission Mexico) processed 1.5 million of the 8 million nonimmigrant visas (NIV) that the Department of State (State) handled worldwide. This workload is expected to increase dramatically in the coming years as millions of NIV Border Crossing Cards issued in Mexico during fiscal years 1998 to 2002 expire and need to be renewed. Consulates will also face increased workloads due to implementation of the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative (WHTI), which will require U.S. citizens to carry passports, or other approved documentation, when traveling between the United States and Mexico, including by land. GAO was asked to review State's (1) estimates of the workload for consulates in Mexico through 2012 and (2) efforts to help ensure consulates keep pace with expected workload increases. GAO analyzed State's workload forecasts and forecast methodology, interviewed State officials, and visited five posts in Mexico.
section_title: What GAO Found
paragraphs: According to State forecasts, Mission Mexico's NIV demand will likely peak at slightly less than 3 million applications in fiscal year 2011, almost twice the number in fiscal year 2007. Though State acknowledges there are uncertainties regarding the number of Border Crossing Card holders who will renew their cards and the number of first-time NIV applicants, the forecasts provide a reasonable basis for planning for the anticipated surge in NIV demand. In addition to its increase in NIV workload, Mission Mexico will be facing increases in its passport workload due to the implementation of WHTI. The magnitude of the increase in passport workload is more difficult to forecast than for NIVs because there is a great deal of uncertainty as to how many U.S. citizens live in Mexico and the number of these citizens likely to apply for a passport. Mission Mexico has already seen a significant increase in its passport workload as U.S. citizens living in Mexico have begun to apply for passports in response to the new documentary requirements. State forecasts that passport workload will peak in fiscal year 2009 with WHTI's anticipated implementation at land ports of entry. State is taking steps to help ensure U.S. consulates in Mexico keep pace with anticipated demand for NIVs and U.S. passports, including adding interviewing windows to several high-demand posts and planning to hire about 100 temporary adjudicating officers. Consular officials at several posts generally agreed these efforts to expand resources should be adequate for Mission Mexico to keep pace with expected workload increases, and GAO's analysis indicates the mission will generally have enough interviewing windows during the surge. Several posts will rely on additional temporary adjudicators to keep pace with increased demand. State is confident it has an adequate pool of potential applicants. Mission Mexico may also gain additional capacity from a pilot program, under way at two posts, outsourcing a portion of the NIV application process to off-site facilities. State has said it intends to evaluate the pilot program but has not indicated if its evaluation plans include an assessment of risks related to fraud and security.

section_title: Letter
paragraphs: Legitimate travel between Mexico and the United States contributes to  bilateral trade of over $1 billion per day, according to the Department of  State (State). The U.S. Mission in Mexico (Mission Mexico) is State’s  largest consular operation in the world; in fiscal year 2007, it processed 1.5  million of the 8 million nonimmigrant visas (NIV) State handled worldwide  and had 5 out of the 20 top NIV-issuing consulates. Moreover, its post in  Ciudad Juarez was the largest issuer of immigrant visas in the world.  Mission Mexico also provided services, including passport processing and  emergency assistance, to thousands of U.S. citizens in fiscal year 2007.
This already significant consular workload is expected to increase  dramatically in the coming years as millions of NIV Border Crossing Cards  issued in Mexico from fiscal years 1998 to 2002 expire and need to be  renewed. In addition, the implementation of new travel requirements  under the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative (WHTI) will, for the first  time, require U.S. citizens to carry passports, or other approved  documentation, when traveling between the United States and Mexico.  State must expand its consular capacity in Mexico to keep pace with this  expected surge in demand for millions of visas and thousands of U.S.  passports over the next several years. If State does not take the steps  necessary to adequately meet this growth in workload, travel between the  two countries could be significantly affected, resulting in inconveniences  and hardships for individual travelers and negative consequences for the  economies of both countries.
At your request, we reviewed State’s (1) estimates of the workload for  consulates in Mexico through 2012 resulting from, in particular, new travel  requirements and the reissue of Border Crossing Cards; and (2) efforts to  ensure that consulates in Mexico keep pace with projected workload  increases through 2012. To accomplish our objectives, we analyzed data  provided by State on current and forecasted passport and NIV workload  for all 10 consulates in Mexico. We analyzed the reliability of State  passport and NIV workload data and found them sufficiently reliable for  our purposes. As part of our review of the data, we also assessed State’s  forecasting methodologies based upon available information. We also  analyzed State’s estimates of the staffing and facility resources needed to  meet the anticipated workload increases in Mexico. In addition, we  performed fieldwork at five consulates in Mexico—Mexico City,  Guadalajara, Monterrey, Ciudad Juarez, and Tijuana. We chose these  consulates because they were among the posts with the highest passport  and visa workloads, and they provided a mix of border posts and posts in  the interior of the country. At each post, we observed visa and passport  processing and met with consular management and representatives from  the Non-Immigrant Visa and American Citizen Services units. We also  conducted a series of interviews with State officials in Washington, D.C.,  including representatives from the Bureau of Consular Affairs, Bureau of  Overseas Building Operations, Bureau of Resource Management, Bureau  of Western Hemisphere Affairs, and Office of Management Policy,  Rightsizing, and Innovation. Lastly, we reviewed a range of State and  Mission Mexico documentation, including Mission Performance Plans,  consular packages, rightsizing reports, policy guidance documents, and  various cables and memos.
We conducted this performance audit from November 2007 to July 2008 in  accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards. Those  standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain sufficient,  appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our findings and  conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe that the evidence  obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions  based on our audit objectives.
subsections: section_title: Background
paragraphs: In addition to the consular section in the U.S. embassy in Mexico City,  Mission Mexico has consulates in nine other cities—Ciudad Juarez,  Guadalajara, Hermosillo, Matamoros, Merida, Monterrey, Nogales, Nuevo  Laredo, and Tijuana (see fig. 1).
subsections: section_title: The Visa Issuance Process
paragraphs: Foreign nationals who wish to visit the United States, including business  travelers and tourists, must generally obtain an NIV. In total, there are 24  major NIV categories and 72 types of NIVs issued. State manages the visa  issuance process at its 219 visa issuing posts around the world.
Foreign nationals wishing to obtain an NIV must generally (1) schedule an  appointment for a visa interview at a U.S. consulate, (2) fill out an  application and pay applicable fees, (3) have their biometric information  (photo and fingerprints) collected at a U.S. consulate, (4) have their  information checked in the Consular Lookout and Support System— State’s name-check database that consulates use to access critical  information for visa adjudication, and (5) undergo an interview with a  consular officer, who is responsible for making the adjudication decision.  In some cases, the consular officer will determine that a Security Advisory  Opinion is warranted before the adjudication can be made. In such  situations, the case will be forwarded to State headquarters for a  recommendation on whether to issue the visa.
section_title: Border Crossing Cards
paragraphs: The majority of travelers visiting the United States from Mexico receive an  NIV Border Crossing Card, which is valid for 10 years. These cards, also  known as “laser visas,” are both a B-1/B-2 visa (combined business and  tourist visa) and a border crossing card. Border Crossing Cards enable  holders to remain in the United States for up to 30 days and travel no more  than 25 miles beyond the border, without filling out an I-94 form, which  serves as an arrival/departure record.
In 1996, Congress passed the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant  Responsibility Act (IIRIRA), which required that every Border Crossing  Card issued after April 1, 1998, contain a biometric identifier, such as a  fingerprint, and be machine readable. The law also mandated that all  Border Crossing Cards issued before April 1, 1998, would expire on  October 1, 1999, regardless of when their validity period ended. This  deadline was extended by Congress two times, first to September 30, 2001,  and then to September 30, 2002. The passage of IIRIRA created a  significant surge in Mission Mexico’s NIV workload, as Border Crossing  Card holders sought to obtain the new visas before the congressionally  mandated expiration date. This culminated in a historic high in NIV  workload in fiscal year 2001, when the mission processed almost 3 million  NIV applications. Over the course of the surge during fiscal years 1998 to  2002, the mission issued over 5.8 million Border Crossing Cards.
section_title: State NIV Workload Challenges
paragraphs: We have previously reported on challenges State faced in managing its NIV  workload. Among other things, we found that NIV applicants have often  had to wait for extended periods of time to receive appointments for  interviews. Believing that wait times for NIV interviews were excessive, in  February 2007, State announced a worldwide goal of interviewing NIV  applicants within 30 days. In the year before the 30-day goal was  announced, the average wait time across the consulates in Mexico had  been as high as 73 days. At some individual posts, wait times exceeded 120  days. By the time of the announcement of the goal in February 2007,  however, Mission Mexico had already successfully reduced wait times  below 30 days at all but one of its posts. State attributes this success in  Mexico to the development of more efficient NIV processes, the  elimination of staffing gaps, and increased focus on the issue. Since  February 2007, the mission has successfully kept the average wait time  among the consulates at less than 30 days.
section_title: The Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative
paragraphs: In response to recommendations in the 9/11 Commission report, the  Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004, as amended,  required that the Secretary of Homeland Security, in conjunction with the  Secretary of State, develop and implement a plan that requires U.S.  citizens to provide a passport, other document, or combination of  documents that the Secretary of Homeland Security deems sufficient to  show identity and citizenship when entering the United States from certain  countries, including Mexico. This will represent a significant change for  many U.S. citizens living in Mexico, who until recently have been able to  routinely cross between the United States and Mexico with more limited  documentation. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and State  are implementing these requirements through WHTI. DHS implemented  WHTI at all air ports of entry into the United States on January 23, 2007,  and plans to implement the requirements at land and sea ports of entry  beginning in June 2009, assuming that DHS and State can certify 3 months  in advance that certain criteria have been met, as required under the law.
section_title: State Anticipates Significant Increases in Mission Mexico’s Nonimmigrant Visa and Passport Workload during Fiscal Years 2007 to 2011
paragraphs: Mission Mexico will experience substantial growth in its NIV workload  due to the need to renew millions of Border Crossing Cards, issued 10  years prior, that began expiring in fiscal year 2008. Though various factors  may reduce the accuracy of State’s NIV demand forecasts, these forecasts  nonetheless provide a reasonable basis for planning for the anticipated  surge in NIV demand. Mission Mexico will also experience an increase in  its passport workload due to the implementation of WHTI.
subsections: section_title: Mission Mexico Is Forecast to Experience a Significant Increase in NIV Demand Due to Renewals of Millions of Expiring Border Crossing Cards
paragraphs: State anticipates a surge in NIV demand in Mexico as Border Crossing  Cards expire and millions of card holders are likely to apply for renewals  at U.S. consulates. In addition to the surge in demand caused by the  expiring Border Crossing Cards, State officials anticipate that Mission  Mexico will also continue to experience steady growth in demand from  first-time visa applicants. To assist in preparing for these increases, State  has developed forecasts of the expected future NIV workload in Mexico.  In doing so, State first developed a forecast of the underlying demand from  new applicants. To determine the forecast of underlying demand, State  calculated the average NIV demand for Mission Mexico for fiscal years  2005 to 2007. This serves as the starting point for the underlying demand  line shown in figure 2. Then, State calculated an annual increase in  underlying demand to account for estimated growth over time. Using  underlying demand as a baseline, State then developed a range of  forecasts that reflect differing assumptions about the percentage of Border  Crossing Card holders who will renew their cards when they expire. As  figure 2 shows, these different assumptions about the number of Border  Crossing Cards that will be renewed can significantly impact the  anticipated levels of NIV demand. For example, at the surge peak in fiscal  year 2011, forecasted demand ranges from around 2.5 million applications  if 50 percent of Border Crossing Card holders renew, to 3.4 million  applications if 100 percent renew. According to State officials, the 75  percent renewal rate is the most likely scenario. Assuming a 75 percent  renewal rate among card holders, the forecasts show missionwide NIV  demand peaking at slightly less than 3 million applications in fiscal year  2011, which represents a 94 percent increase in demand from fiscal year  2007. State intends to monitor renewal rates as the surge progresses to  help refine its assumptions about likely demand.
In addition to the missionwide forecast, State has developed demand  forecasts for individual consulates. As shown in figure 3, which assumes a  75 percent renewal rate for Border Crossing Cards, State’s forecasts  anticipate NIV demand peaking in fiscal year 2011 for the majority of  posts, although demand is expected to peak in fiscal year 2012 for  Monterrey and Hermosillo. State forecasts that Mexico City will have the  highest overall demand, with applications growing to over 600,000 in fiscal  year 2011, but anticipates that the steepest increases in demand will occur  at border posts, as shown in figure 4.
This pattern is similar to the previous Border Crossing Card surge, where  the border consulates assumed a greater share of the total mission  workload during the surge, with this share then diminishing again at the  surge’s end. As shown in figure 4, Tijuana is forecasted to experience the  most significant increases of any post—between fiscal years 2007 and 2011  the post’s demand is anticipated to increase 226 percent. Ciudad Juarez  and Nuevo Laredo have the second-and third-highest increases at 212  percent and 207 percent, respectively.
section_title: Despite Uncertainties, State’s Forecasts Provide a Reasonable Basis for Planning for the Expected Surge in Workload
paragraphs: Estimating future NIV demand is inherently uncertain, and State  acknowledges that various factors may reduce the accuracy of its  forecasts. For one, State is unsure as to the percentage of Border Crossing  Card holders who will renew their cards when they expire. Some card  holders have had their cards lost or stolen and have already had them  replaced at a consulate. Other card holders have either legally or illegally  immigrated to the United States and will not be returning to renew their  cards. Finally, some applicants may decide to defer renewals for various  reasons, including the recent rise in NIV fees, or because they have no  immediate travel plans. Given these uncertainties, State followed  commonly accepted best practices by performing sensitivity analysis to  see what Mission Mexico’s likely workload would be under different  scenarios, which are reflected in figure 2. By developing these different  workload scenarios, State has been able to better identify the potential  range of Mission Mexico’s staffing and facility needs.
In addition to the uncertainties regarding the number of Border Crossing  Card holders who will renew their cards, there are also uncertainties  regarding underlying demand from nonrenewal applicants. State’s  methodology assumes constant annual increase in underlying demand  over the life of the forecasts and does not consider how various economic  and demographic factors may affect NIV demand. As State officials  acknowledge, such factors, including changes in the value of the Mexican  peso or the strength of the U.S. economy, can affect NIV demand.  However, any inaccuracies in the estimates of underlying nonrenewal  demand are unlikely to significantly affect the overall accuracy of State’s  projections because the surge is due primarily to Border Crossing Card  renewals. For example, even if underlying demand increased by twice as  much as State expected between fiscal years 2010 and 2011, this would  result in total NIV demand being only 2 percent more than State forecasted  for fiscal year 2011, under the 75 percent renewal scenario.
Although, as discussed above, there are uncertainties with the forecasts,  State’s approach to forecasting NIV workload, based on historical  precedent and underlying growth in demand provide State with a  reasonable basis for planning for the anticipated surge in NIV demand.  State has detailed data on the number of Border Crossing Cards issued  during the previous surge, when they expire, and where they were issued,  which gives it a strong foundation for developing its assumptions about  future demand. As figure 5 shows, State’s forecasts anticipate that the  upcoming surge will be predominantly cyclical, following a pattern similar  to the previous Border Crossing Card surge in fiscal years 1998 to 2002.  Furthermore, in recognition of the uncertainties that do exist, State used  sensitivity analysis to estimate different potential levels of NIV demand to  inform its plans for the upcoming surge. State officials believe their plans  include sufficient flexibility to meet NIV demand increases under the  various scenarios they have developed. Additionally, State plans to  continually track demand at the consulates as the NIV surge unfolds and  will revise its forecasts periodically.
section_title: Mission Mexico Will Experience an Increase in Passport Workload Due to WHTI Implementation, Although the Magnitude Is Difficult to Predict
paragraphs: In addition to the surge in NIV workload, Mission Mexico has begun to  experience a surge in its passport workload as a result of the  implementation of WHTI at air ports of entry in January 2007 and its  subsequent, planned implementation at land and sea ports in June 2009.  According to State officials, the mission has already seen a significant  increase in its passport workload as U.S. citizens living in Mexico have  begun to apply for passports in response to the new documentary  requirements. Mission Mexico’s passport and CRBA workload, which State  tracks together because both types of applications are handled by  consular officers in posts’ American Citizen Services units, grew to 34,496  applications in fiscal year 2007, a 77 percent increase from fiscal year 2006.  Passport and CRBA workload continues to increase in fiscal year 2008,  with the mission already having processed about 70 percent of the fiscal  year 2007 total in the first 6 months of fiscal year 2008. Despite the  expected increases, passport and CRBA workload will continue to be only  a fraction of Mission Mexico’s workload, relative to NIV applications.
While State expects passport workload in Mexico to continue to increase  significantly in the coming years, it is difficult to predict precisely what the  magnitude of this increase will be. Unlike with the NIV surge, there is not a  clear historical precedent to the WHTI surge. Additionally, there is a great  deal of uncertainty regarding the number of U.S. citizens living in Mexico  and the number of these citizens who are potential passport applicants.  According to State headquarters and Mission Mexico officials, many of the  U.S. citizens living in Mexico are dual nationals who have spent the vast  majority of their lives outside the United States and have few ties with the  country. Consequently, the consulates tend to have much less contact with  and knowledge of these citizens than they do of typical expatriates.  Therefore, efforts to forecast increases in passport workload due to WHTI  are extremely challenging.
Nonetheless, State has developed rough estimates of the likely increase in  workload caused by the implementation of WHTI. These WHTI workload  numbers include estimates of both passport and CRBA applications. State  did not use any type of formal statistical analysis in developing these  estimates because the lack of data on U.S. citizens living in Mexico made  any such analysis problematic. Thus, these estimates have the potential for  significant errors. According to State’s estimates, Mission Mexico’s WHTI  workload is projected to peak in fiscal year 2009 with the intended  implementation of WHTI at land ports of entry. This means that the peak  in WHTI workload is expected to occur 2 years before the NIV peak in  fiscal year 2011. At the WHTI workload peak in fiscal year 2009, State  estimates that the mission will likely have over 66,000 passport and CRBA  applications. Even with workload expected to begin declining in fiscal  year 2010, State anticipates that it will continue to be significantly higher  through at least fiscal year 2012 than it has been over the last several  years.
At the post level, State estimates that the majority of WHTI workload will  be handled at four posts: Mexico City, Guadalajara, Tijuana, and Ciudad  Juarez. This is consistent with recent experience in Mexico. As shown in  figure 6, these four posts handled 77 percent of the mission’s total  passport and CRBA workload in fiscal year 2007. They also handled 73  percent of the mission’s total workload in the first 6 months of fiscal year  2008.
The WHTI workload estimates discussed in this report, which were  provided to us on July 2, are revisions to earlier projections discussed in  our June 25, 2008, testimony. State’s earlier projections had  underestimated passport and CRBA workload by 31 percent for the  mission in fiscal year 2007. Although its earlier estimates were too low for  fiscal year 2007, State’s revised WHTI forecasts are actually lower than its  previous estimates of passport and CRBA workload for fiscal years 2008  through 2012. While it has revised its WHTI forecasts, State is not making  the development of precise workload estimates the focus of its efforts to  prepare for the surge. State has instead chosen to pursue strategies  designed to provide it with the flexibility to respond to increases in  workload as they occur—particularly as a more limited number of  resources will be needed to cover increases in passport and CRBA  applications than NIV applications, given their small share of Mission  Mexico’s overall consular workload.
section_title: State Is Adding Interviewing Windows and Temporary Adjudicators to Posts in Mexico to Keep Pace with Projected Workload Increases
paragraphs: In anticipation of the surge in demand for NIVs and U.S. passports in  Mexico, State is adding hardened interview windows to several high- demand posts. State has also developed plans to hire about 100  temporary adjudicating officers to add to its existing staff at the posts in  Mexico. In addition, State began a pilot program in the spring of 2008 at  two posts in Mexico to outsource part of the NIV application process to an  off-site facility. Mission Mexico has also begun to waive interviews of  certain NIV renewal applicants, which may increase its productivity. To  keep pace with growing demand for passports, posts are developing new  procedures to increase productivity of passport adjudications; they also  have the flexibility to shift resources from NIV sections to process  passport applications, depending on demand.
subsections: section_title: Several Posts Will Be Adding Interview Windows during the Workload Surge
paragraphs: To keep pace with the expected NIV renewal surge, State is increasing the  total number of hardened interview windows in the consulates’ NIV  sections by over 50 percent before demand peaks in 2011. State added  windows to the consulate in Hermosillo in fiscal year 2007 and will soon  be adding windows to the consulates in Monterrey and Mexico City. In  addition, new consulate compounds in Ciudad Juarez and Tijuana will  result in additional windows for adjudicating NIV applications. The new  facility in Ciudad Juarez is set to open in September 2008, and State  expects to open the new Tijuana facility in September 2010 (construction  on this facility began in April 2008). Once completed, these projects will  provide Mission Mexico with the window capacity to interview about 1  million additional NIV applicants per year. Table 1 compares the number  of interview windows available in fiscal year 2007 to the number that will  be available by fiscal year 2011, when NIV demand peaks; however, if  construction of the new consulate compound in Tijuana experiences any  significant delays, it may not be ready in time.
Consulate officials at the posts we visited generally expressed confidence  that they will have sufficient window capacity to keep pace with the  expected NIV demand and avoid excessive wait times for interviews  beyond State’s goal of 30 days. As shown in figure 7, our analysis of  expected window capacity indicates that Mission Mexico generally  appears to have enough window capacity to keep pace with projected  demand, using State’s scenario that 75 percent of existing Border Crossing  Card holders will seek renewal when their cards expire.
However, as shown in figure 7, some posts may have shortfalls in NIV  window capacity. State officials believe the potential shortfalls in window  capacity in some cases may be small enough to be managed by extending  hours that windows are open, if necessary. However, State officials  acknowledge that two posts, Nuevo Laredo and Matamoros, will not have  adequate window capacity during the NIV surge. Consequently, NIV  applicants may face longer wait times for an interview appointment at  these posts. State officials noted that individuals who would typically  apply at one of these two posts will have the option to schedule  appointments at the relatively nearby consulate in Monterrey, which is  expected to have excess window capacity during the surge in demand.  Consular officials at the Guadalajara post believe they should be able to  absorb the increased workload with the number of windows available as  long as they have enough staff to work the windows in shifts to keep them  open all day, if necessary. These officials noted that if they cannot  manage peak demand with the windows available, they could potentially  convert enrollment windows to hardened interview windows; however,  such an effort could take at least a year to plan and complete.
section_title: State Plans to Hire Temporary Adjudicators to Increase Workforce during Demand Surge
paragraphs: In addition to the increase in hardened windows, Mission Mexico requires  a significant increase in adjudicators over the next few years. Based on  NIV and passport workload projections, State estimates it will need 223  adjudicators throughout Mission Mexico in fiscal year 2011, which is the  expected peak year of the surge in NIV demand. This number is an  increase of 102 adjudicators, or almost 85 percent, over the number of  adjudicator positions in place in fiscal year 2007. The vast majority of  these staff are needed for NIV applications, which represent a much larger  share of workload than passports. State officials noted that they are basing  their staffing needs on the high end of their range of NIV demand  projections, which assumes that 100 percent of Border Crossing Card  holders will renew their cards (see fig. 2). Figure 8 compares the number  of adjudicator positions in fiscal year 2007 to the number State estimates  that it needs in fiscal year 2011. State may revise its staffing plans as it  generates updated forecasts.
State plans to meet its staffing needs during the expected workload surge  primarily by hiring a temporary workforce of consular adjudicators that  can be assigned to posts throughout Mission Mexico, depending on each  post’s workload demands. Figure 9 shows the number of temporary  adjudicators and career adjudicators planned for Mission Mexico in fiscal  year 2011. State officials noted that relying on a temporary workforce  allows Mission Mexico to avoid having excess staff after the workload  surge and reduces costs per staff compared with permanent hires. State  has budgeted for about 100 temporary adjudicators to be in place by the  peak of the surge in workload demand, although State officials noted that  these budgeted funds could be reprogrammed if fewer than expected  adjudicators are needed.
As figure 9 indicates, posts in Monterrey, Mexico City, Ciudad Juarez, and  Tijuana are expected to be the heaviest users of temporary adjudicators.  Consequently, these posts would be at greatest risk of increased NIV  backlogs if temporary adjudicator slots cannot be filled as needed or if  their productivity is not as high as anticipated. However, State officials  believe they have an adequate pool of potential candidates from among  returning Peace Corps volunteers, graduates of the National Security  Education Program, eligible family members, and retired Foreign  Service officers. These officials noted that they recently began reaching  out to targeted groups of potential applicants and have already received  strong interest. In addition, State has already posted the job  announcement on its Web site and expects to begin placing these  additional temporary adjudicators at posts in fiscal year 2009. State  officials noted that they will try to fill slots gradually to help posts absorb  the additional staff.
The temporary hires will be commissioned as consular officers with 1- year, noncareer appointments that can be renewed annually for up to 5  years. They will also receive the same 6-week Basic Consular Course at  the Foreign Service Institute in Arlington, Virginia, as permanent Foreign  Service officers. These individuals must be U.S. citizens, obtain a security  clearance, and be functionally fluent in Spanish. Housing in Mexico for the  temporary adjudicators will be arranged for by the State Bureau of  Consular Affairs in Washington, D.C., through contract services, which  will provide greater flexibility to move adjudicators from one post to  another, if necessary.
Officials from the posts we visited were generally confident that State’s  plan to provide them with additional consular officers would enable them  to keep pace with workload demand. Post officials anticipate the same  level of productivity and supervision requirements as they would expect  from new career Foreign Service officers. The officials noted that new  consular adjudicators typically take about 2 months of working the NIV  interview windows to reach the productivity levels of more experienced  adjudicators. According to State officials, if, despite State’s plans, some  posts do not have enough adjudicators in place, State has the budget  flexibility to hire more temporary adjudicators than initially planned and  also could move staff to posts that need them on a per diem basis.
section_title: State Has Initiated a Pilot Program for Off-Site NIV Processing, but Has Not Indicated How It Will Assess Risks
paragraphs: State began a pilot program in the spring of 2008 at two posts in Mexico to  outsource part of the NIV application process, including biometric (photos  and fingerprints) data collection, to an off-site facility. The pilot program  is part of an effort by State to establish a new service delivery model for  processing NIVs in response to long-term, worldwide growth in demand  for NIVs. State has expressed its intention to evaluate the pilot before  implementing the off-site model more widely; however, it has not yet  indicated whether its evaluation plans include an assessment of risks  related to fraud and security.
The pilot program is implemented by a private sector contractor that  handles functions that do not require the direct involvement of a consular  officer, including scanning of applicants’ fingerprints and passports, live- capture digital photographs, and arranging courier delivery of NIVs to  approved applicants. Consular officers at these two posts focus on their  “core mission” of making adjudication decisions after the contractor has  electronically transferred the applicants’ application and biometric data.  The cost of outsourcing these functions is covered through an additional  fee of $26 paid by the applicants directly to the contractor at the offsite- facility. State officials noted that this form of cost reimbursement is  subject to change after the initial pilot. Consulate officials at the posts  involved in the pilot are responsible for monitoring the performance of the  contractor through the use of surveillance cameras, random visits to the  off-site facility, and validation reviews of NIV applications to check for  incidence of fraud or incorrect information. State officials noted that the  contractor does not have the ability to alter any of the data it collects,  which should limit the risk of fraud. They also noted that a U.S. citizen  with a security clearance is on site to manage the facility and the  contractor is responsible for conducting local police background checks  of its employees. Nevertheless, consular officials in Monterrey stressed the  importance of monitoring contractor employees to help ensure they do not  coach applicants. Additionally, the off-site facility will have no exterior  markings indicating its association with the U.S. consulate. State officials  believe this will reduce the security risk to the facility and contractor  employees.
State envisions expanding this model throughout Mexico and other high- demand posts worldwide to help expand the capacity of consular  operations without incurring the costs of building additional facilities. No  timetable for this expansion has been set, according to State officials. In  Monterrey, the use of the pilot program made available extra space in the  consulate facility to add much-needed NIV interview windows. Post  officials in Guadalajara also noted that the off-site data collection model  would make it possible to add interviewing windows to their consulate  facility, if necessary, by freeing up space currently needed to enroll  applicants. State also envisions the possibility of providing off-site data  collection facilities serving NIV applicants in cities that do not have  consulates.
State officials stated that the department intends to assess the pilot to  ensure that the technological challenges of remote biometric data  collection and data transfer have been overcome. They will also assess  whether the new software involved presents the data to consular officers  in a user-friendly format to facilitate the adjudication. In addition, State  will monitor adjudication rates at the participating posts to see how the  new model affects productivity. However, State has neither developed a  written assessment plan nor indicated whether its evaluation plans include  an assessment of potential risks related to fraud or the security of the  operation. Risk assessment is one of five internal control standards,  defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), to help  organizations achieve effective and efficient operations.
section_title: Mission May Gain Additional Productivity from Waiving Interviews for Certain NIV Renewal Applicants
paragraphs: In another step to help posts keep pace with NIV demand, Mission Mexico  has also begun to waive interviews of NIV renewal applicants as is  allowable under certain circumstances established by federal law and  State regulations; however, the policy has not yet been implemented  widely. State recently provided guidance to posts worldwide on waiving  interviews for certain applicants, following the transition to the collection  of 10 fingerprints and technology allowing reuse of fingerprints. The policy  only applies to applicants seeking to renew their biometric NIVs within 12  months of expiration. Consular officers retain the discretion to require any  applicant to appear for an interview, and applicants may not have an  interview waived unless they clear all computer-based security screening.  According to State guidance, consular officers will also have the discretion  to waive interviews of renewal applicants as part of the off-site data  collection model being piloted in Monterrey and Nuevo Laredo, when  prints collected off-site match with the applicant’s fingerprints already  stored in expiring Border Crossing Cards.
The Monterrey and Ciudad Juarez posts have already begun to waive  interviews of applicants renewing NIVs and found significant productivity  gains. As a result, officers there were able to adjudicate cases more  rapidly and better utilize window capacity, according to consular officials.  These posts also found no significant difference in denial rates for NIV  renewal applicants who were interviewed compared to those whose  interviews were waived, although State officials noted it was necessary to  continue monitoring the effect of waiving interviews. These officials also  highlighted the need to adjust consular training to be consistent with  State’s current guidance on waiving interviews under certain  circumstances.
section_title: Posts Are Developing New Procedures to Help Meet Increasing Passport Demand
paragraphs: Although the volume of passport applications is much smaller than NIV  applications, adjudicating passport applications for American citizens  takes precedence over NIV applications. Consular officials at posts we  visited noted that because of the uncertainty over future passport demand,  they will depend on their flexibility to shift adjudicators from NIV work to  passport work, as needed, while hoping to avoid straining NIV sections. In  addition, consular officials stated they will have the option of using NIV  interview windows to adjudicate passport applications—possibly during  off hours, if necessary.
In addition, posts are seeking ways to become more efficient in how they  process the increasing volume of passports. For example, many posts have  recently implemented an appointment system to better manage the flow of  passport applicants and have also improved their Web sites to help  provide better assistance to applicants, many of whom do not speak  English and are applying for passports for the first time. State is also  upgrading its software used for passport processing in overseas posts to  enable posts to scan passport applications, which they expect will reduce  staff resources needed for data entry. Some posts are also considering  increased use of consular agents in other locations, such as Puerto Vallarta  or Cabo San Lucas, to accept passport applications to help relieve some of  the workload for consular staff. In addition, some posts have suggested  exploring possibilities for processing passport renewals by mail, which  would also help relieve overcrowding.
section_title: Conclusions
paragraphs: In anticipation of the expected surge in demand for NIVs and U.S.  passports in Mexico over the next several years, State has taken steps to  project workload and expand the capacity of its consulates to avoid the  type of backlogs that have occurred in Mission Mexico in the past. State’s  efforts to increase the number of hardened interview windows at several  of its consulates and hire additional temporary consular officers represent  a substantial increase in resources needed to keep pace with the projected  surge in NIV and passport workload. As State continues to revise its  workload projections, it may need to adjust its plans for increasing these  resources. The success of the efforts to prepare for the surges in passport  and NIV workload is likely to depend on State’s ability to fill the  approximately 100 slots it has planned for temporary adjudicators in time  to meet the surge in workload. Several posts in Mexico will rely heavily on  these additional staff to keep pace with expected demand for NIVs and  avoid excessive wait times for interviews of applicants. However, State  officials have expressed confidence that they will be able to fill these  positions with qualified candidates.
In addition, Mission Mexico may reap productivity gains from a pilot  program to outsource part of the NIV application process, including  biometric data collection, at off-site facilities; however, this effort is in its  early stages, and State has not yet undertaken a comprehensive evaluation  of the pilot program. While State officials have expressed their intention to  evaluate the pilot program, the department has not yet indicated whether  its evaluation plans include an assessment of risks related to fraud and the  security of the operation, consistent with internal control standards. The  absence of a written assessment plan also limits transparency and the  potential for decision makers to determine if State’s new model for NIV  processing can be implemented successfully in other parts of the world.
section_title: Recommendation for Executive Action
paragraphs: To strengthen internal controls and enhance State’s evaluation of the pilot  program to outsource part of the NIV application process to a private  contractor at off-site facilities, we recommend that the Secretary of State  include in the evaluation an assessment of the potential risks related to  fraud and security.
section_title: Agency Comments and Our Evaluation
paragraphs: We provided a draft of this report to the Department of State for review  and comment. State provided written comments on the draft, which are  reprinted in appendix II. State concurred with our recommendation,  stating that it will conduct a formal risk analysis as part of its evaluation of  the pilot program to outsource part of the NIV application process to a  private contractor at off-site facilities. The analysis will evaluate the  department’s exposure to risk from technological, human, and physical  threats, and ensure that further deployment of the off-site processing  model will be secure. State also noted that its overall evaluation of the  pilot program will help the department develop its final model for  outsourcing part of the NIV application process.
We are sending copies of this report to interested congressional  committees. We will also make copies available to others on request. In  addition, this report is available on GAO’s Web site at http://www.gao.gov.
If you or your staffs have any questions concerning this report, please  contact me at (202) 512-4268 or fordj@gao.gov. Contact points for our  Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on the  last page of this report. Key contributors to this report are listed in  appendix III.
section_title: Appendix I: Scope and Methodology
paragraphs: Our objectives were to review (1) the State Department’s (State) estimates  of the workload for consulates in Mexico through 2012 resulting from, in  particular, new travel requirements and the reissue of Border Crossing  Cards; and (2) State’s efforts to ensure that consulates in Mexico keep  pace with projected workload increases through 2012. To accomplish our  objectives, we analyzed State data on current and forecasted passport and  nonimmigrant visa (NIV) workload for all 10 consulates in Mexico and  assessed the magnitude of expected future workload increases. Along with  this, we analyzed the reliability of State passport and NIV workload data  and found them sufficiently reliable for our purposes. As part of our  review, we also assessed State’s forecasting methodologies based on  available information. In our review, we determined that State had  employed a reasonable methodological approach in developing its NIV  forecasts for the mission and among the individual consulates. However,  certain factors may still impact the accuracy of the forecasts, including the  extent to which Border Crossing Card holders renew their cards when  they expire. Additionally, changes in various economic and demographic  variables, such as the strength of the U.S. economy, also have the potential  to affect NIV demand.
We also examined State’s current staff and facilities devoted to NIV and  passport processing and its estimates of resource needs when workload  peaks in 2011. In addition, we assessed how State used its workload  forecasts to assist in developing these estimates. We compared these  estimates to other documented assessments of resource needs, including  those contained in rightsizing reports for Mission Mexico and consular  packages for fiscal year 2007.
To gather further information on Mission Mexico’s staffing and facility  needs, and to learn about State’s plans to prepare for the mission’s  upcoming workload increases and the implementation status of these  plans, we performed fieldwork at five consulates in Mexico—Mexico City,  Guadalajara, Monterrey, Ciudad Juarez, and Tijuana. We chose these  consulates because they were among the posts with the highest current  and forecasted passport and visa workloads in Mexico and also because  they provided a mix of border posts and posts within the interior of the  country. At each post, we observed visa and passport processing, and met  with consulate management and representatives from the Non-Immigrant  Visa and American Citizenship Services units. We also conducted a series  of interviews with State officials in Washington, D.C., including  representatives from the Bureau of Consular Affairs, the Bureau of  Overseas Building Operations, the Bureau of Resource Management, the  Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs, and the Office of Management  Policy, Rightsizing, and Innovation.
Lastly, we reviewed a range of State and Mission Mexico documentation to  gain further understanding of the nature of Mission Mexico’s expected  workload, the mission’s resource and facility needs, and plans State has  developed or is in the process of developing to meet its workload  requirements in Mexico. The documentation we reviewed included  Mission Performance Plans, consular packages, policy guidance  documents, and various cables and memos.
We conducted this performance audit from November 2007 to July 2008 in  accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards. Those  standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain sufficient,  appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our findings and  conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe that the evidence  obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions  based on our audit objectives.
section_title: Appendix II: Comments from the Department of State
section_title: Appendix III: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments
subsections: section_title: GAO Contact
section_title: Staff Acknowledgments
paragraphs: In addition to the contact named above, Juan Gobel, Assistant Director;  Ashley Alley; Joe Carney; Howard Cott; David Dornisch; Michael Hoffman;  and Ryan Vaughan made key contributions to this report.