Polar-Orbiting Environmental Satellites: Project Risks Could Affect Weather Data Needed by Civilian and Military Users
Published: 2003-07-15T00:00:00

Fast Facts:

Highlights:
section_title: Why GAO Did This Study
paragraphs: Polar-orbiting environmental satellites provide data and imagery that are used by weather forecasters, climatologists, and the military to map and monitor changes in weather, climate, the ocean, and the environment. The current polar satellite program is a complex infrastructure that includes two satellite systems, supporting ground stations, and four central data processing centers. In the future, the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) is to merge the two current satellite systems into a single state-of-the-art environment monitoring satellite system. This new $7 billion satellite system is considered critical to the United States' ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting and global climate monitoring through the year 2018. In its testimony GAO was asked, among other topics, to discuss risks to the success of the NPOESS deployment.
section_title: What GAO Found
paragraphs: The NPOESS program faces key programmatic and technical risks that may affect the successful and timely deployment of the system. The original plan for NPOESS was that it would be available to serve as a backup to the March 2008 launch of the final satellite in one of the two current satellite programs--the Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) system. However, changing funding streams and revised schedules have delayed the expected launch date of the first NPOESS satellite by 21 months. Thus, the first NPOESS satellite will not be ready in time to back up the final POES satellite, resulting in a potential gap in satellite coverage should that satellite fail. Specifically, if the final POES launch fails and if existing satellites are unable to continue operations beyond their expected lifespans, the continuity of weather data needed for weather forecasts and climate monitoring will be put at risk. Moreover, concerns with the development of key NPOESS components, including critical sensors and the data processing system, may cause additional delays in the satellite launch date. The program office is working to address the changes in funding levels and schedule, and to make plans for addressing specific risks. Further, it is working to develop a new cost and schedule baseline for the NPOESS program by August 2003.

section_title: Letter
paragraphs: We appreciate the opportunity to join in today’s hearing to discuss our  work on the planned National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental  Satellite System (NPOESS). At your request, we will provide an overview  of our nation’s current polar-orbiting environmental satellite program and  the planned NPOESS program. We will also discuss key risks to the  successful and timely deployment of NPOESS.
In brief, today’s polar-orbiting environmental satellite program is a  complex infrastructure encompassing two satellite systems, supporting  ground stations, and four central data processing centers that provide  general weather information and specialized environmental products to a  variety of users, including weather forecasters, military strategists, and the  public. NPOESS is planned to merge the two satellite systems into a single  state-of-the-art environment monitoring satellite system. This new satellite  system, currently estimated to cost about $7 billion, is considered critical  to the United States’ ability to maintain the continuity of data required for  weather forecasting and global climate monitoring through the year 2018.
However, the NPOESS program faces key programmatic and technical  risks that may affect the successful and timely deployment of the system.  Specifically, changing funding streams and revised schedules have delayed  the expected launch date of the first NPOESS satellite by 21 months. Thus,  the first NPOESS satellite will not be ready in time to back up the final  POES satellite, resulting in a potential gap in satellite coverage should that  satellite fail. Specifically, if the final POES launch fails and if existing  satellites are unable to continue operations beyond their expected  lifespans, the continuity of weather data needed for weather forecasts and  climate monitoring will be put at risk. In addition, concerns with the  development of key NPOESS components, including critical sensors and  the data processing system, could cause additional delays in the satellite  launch date.
The program office is working to address the changes in funding levels  and schedule, and to make plans for addressing specific risks. Further, it is  working to develop a new cost and schedule baseline for the NPOESS  program by August 2003.
This statement builds on work we have done on environmental satellite  programs over the last several years. An overview of the approach we  used to perform this work—our objectives, scope, and methodology—is  provided in appendix I.
subsections: section_title: Existing Polar Satellite Infrastructure
paragraphs: Since the 1960s, the United States has operated two separate operational  polar-orbiting meteorological satellite systems. These systems are known  as the Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES),  managed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s  (NOAA) National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service  (NESDIS), and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP),  managed by the Department of Defense (DOD). These satellites obtain  environmental data that are processed to provide graphical weather  images and specialized weather products, and that are the predominant  input to numerical weather prediction models—all used by weather  forecasters, the military, and the public. Polar satellites also provide data  used to monitor environmental phenomena, such as ozone depletion and  drought conditions, as well as data sets that are used by researchers for a  variety of studies, such as climate monitoring.
Unlike geostationary satellites, which maintain a fixed position above the  earth, polar-orbiting satellites constantly circle the earth in an almost  north-south orbit, providing global coverage of conditions that affect the  weather and climate. Each satellite makes about 14 orbits a day. As the  earth rotates beneath it, each satellite views the entire earth’s surface  twice a day. Today, there are two operational POES satellites and two  operational DMSP satellites that are positioned so that they can observe  the earth in early morning, mid-morning, and early afternoon polar orbits.  Together, they ensure that for any region of the earth, the data provided to  users are generally no more than 6 hours old. Figure 1 illustrates the  current operational polar satellite configuration. Besides the four  operational satellites, there are five older satellites in orbit that still collect  some data and are available to provide some limited backup to the  operational satellites should they degrade or fail. In the future, both NOAA  and DOD plan to continue to launch additional POES and DMSP satellites  every few years, with final launches scheduled for 2008 and 2010,  respectively.
Each of the polar satellites carries a suite of sensors designed to detect  environmental data either reflected or emitted from the earth, the  atmosphere, and space. The satellites store these data and then transmit  the data to NOAA and Air Force ground stations when the satellites pass  overhead. The ground stations then relay the data via communications  satellites to the appropriate meteorological centers for processing.
Under a shared processing agreement among the four processing  centers—NESDIS, the Air Force Weather Agency, Navy’s Fleet Numerical  Meteorology and Oceanography Center, and the Naval Oceanographic  Office—different centers are responsible for producing and distributing  different environmental data sets, specialized weather and oceanographic  products, and weather prediction model outputs via a shared network.  Each of the four processing centers is also responsible for distributing the  data to its respective users. For the DOD centers, the users include  regional meteorology and oceanography centers as well as meteorology  and oceanography staff on military bases. NESDIS forwards the data to  NOAA’s National Weather Service for distribution and use by forecasters.  The processing centers also use the Internet to distribute data to the  general public. NESDIS is responsible for the long-term archiving of data  and derived products from POES and DMSP.
In addition to the infrastructure supporting satellite data processing noted  above, properly equipped field terminals that are within a direct line of  sight of the satellites can receive real-time data directly from the polar- orbiting satellites. There are an estimated 150 such field terminals  operated by the U.S. government, many by DOD. Field terminals can be  taken into areas with little or no data communications infrastructure— such as on a battlefield or ship—and enable the receipt of weather data  directly from the polar-orbiting satellites. These terminals have their own  software and processing capability to decode and display a subset of the  satellite data to the user. Figure 2 depicts a generic data relay pattern from  the polar-orbiting satellites to the data processing centers and field  terminals.
subsections: section_title: Polar Satellite Data, Products, and Uses
paragraphs: Polar satellites gather a broad range of data that are transformed into a  variety of products for many different uses. When first received, satellite  data are considered raw data. To make them usable, the processing  centers format the data so that they are time-sequenced and include earth  location and calibration information. After formatting, these data are  called raw data records. The centers further process these raw data  records into data sets, called sensor data records and temperature data  records. These data records are then used to derive weather products  called environmental data records (EDR). EDRs range from atmospheric  products detailing cloud coverage, temperature, humidity, and ozone  distribution; to land surface products showing snow cover, vegetation, and  land use; to ocean products depicting sea surface temperatures, sea ice,  and wave height; to characterizations of the space environment.  Combinations of these data records (raw, sensor, temperature, and  environmental data records) are also used to derive more sophisticated  products, including outputs from numerical weather models and  assessments of climate trends. Figure 3 is a simplified depiction of the  various stages of data processing.
EDRs can be either images or quantitative data products. Image EDRs  provide graphical depictions of the weather and are used to observe  meteorological and oceanographic phenomena to track operationally  significant events (such as tropical storms, volcanic ash, and icebergs),  and to provide quality assurance for weather prediction models.
The following figures demonstrate polar-orbiting satellite images. Figure 4  is an image from a DMSP satellite showing an infrared picture taken over  the west Atlantic Ocean. Figure 5 is a POES image of Hurricane Floyd,  which struck the southern Atlantic coastline in 1999. Figure 6 is a polar- satellite image used to detect volcanic ash clouds, in particular the ash  cloud resulting from the eruption of Mount Etna in 2001. Figure 7 shows  the location of icebergs near Antarctica in February 2002.
Quantitative EDRs are specialized weather products that can be used to  assess the environment and climate or to derive other products. These  EDRs can also be depicted graphically. Figures 8 and 9 are graphic  depictions of quantitative data on sea surface temperature and ozone  measurements, respectively. An example of a product that was derived  from EDRs is provided in figure 10. This product shows how long a person  could survive in the ocean—information used in military as well as search  and rescue operations—and was based on sea surface temperature EDRs  from polar-orbiting satellites.
Another use of quantitative satellite data is in numerical weather  prediction models. Based predominantly on observations from polar- orbiting satellites and supplemented by data from other sources such as  geostationary satellites, radar, weather balloons, and surface observing  systems, numerical weather prediction models are used in producing  hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly forecasts of atmospheric, land, and  ocean conditions. These models require quantitative satellite data to  update their analysis of weather and to produce new forecasts. Table 1  provides examples of models run by the processing centers. Figure 11  depicts the output of one common model.
All this information—satellite data, imagery, derived products, and model  output—is used in mapping and monitoring changes in weather, climate,  the ocean, and the environment. These data and products are provided to  weather forecasters for use in issuing weather forecasts and warnings to  the public and to support our nation’s aviation, agriculture, and maritime  communities. Also, weather data and products are used by climatologists  and meteorologists to monitor the environment. Within the military, these  data and products allow military planners and tactical users to focus on  anticipating and exploiting atmospheric and space environmental  conditions. For example, Air Force Weather Agency officials told us that  accurate wind and temperature forecasts are critical to any decision to  launch an aircraft that will need mid-flight refueling. In addition to these  operational uses of satellite data, there is also a substantial need for polar  satellite data for research. According to experts in climate research, the  research community requires long-term, consistent sets of satellite data  collected sequentially, usually at fixed intervals of time, in order to study  many critical climate processes. Examples of research topics include long- term trends in temperature, precipitation, and snow cover.
section_title: The National Polar- orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System
paragraphs: Given the expectation that merging the POES and DMSP programs would  reduce duplication and result in sizable cost savings, a May 1994  Presidential Decision Directive required NOAA and DOD to converge the  two satellite programs into a single satellite program capable of satisfying  both civilian and military requirements. The converged program is called  the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System  (NPOESS), and it is considered critical to the United States’ ability to  maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting and global  climate monitoring. To manage this program, DOD, NOAA, and the  National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have formed a tri- agency Integrated Program Office, located within NOAA.
Within the program office, each agency has the lead on certain activities.  NOAA has overall responsibility for the converged system, as well as  satellite operations; DOD has the lead on the acquisition; and NASA has  primary responsibility for facilitating the development and incorporation  of new technologies into the converged system. NOAA and DOD share the  costs of funding NPOESS, while NASA funds specific technology projects  and studies.
subsections: section_title: NPOESS Overview
paragraphs: NPOESS is a major system acquisition estimated to cost almost $7 billion  over the 24-year period from the inception of the program in 1995 through  2018. The program is to provide satellite development, satellite launch and  operation, and integrated data processing. These deliverables are grouped  into four main categories: (1) the launch segment, which includes the  launch vehicle and supporting equipment, (2) the space segment, which  includes the satellites and sensors, (3) the interface data processing  segment, which includes the data processing system to be located at the  four processing centers, and (4) the command, control, and  communications segment, which includes the equipment and services  needed to track and control satellites.
Program acquisition plans call for the procurement and launch of six  NPOESS satellites over the life of the program and the integration of 14  instruments, comprising 12 environmental sensors and 2 subsystems.  Together, the sensors are to receive and transmit data on atmospheric,  cloud cover, environmental, climate, oceanographic, and solar-geophysical  observations. The subsystems are to support nonenvironmental search  and rescue efforts and environmental data collection activities. According  to the Integrated Program Office, 8 of the 14 planned NPOESS instruments  involve new technology development, whereas 6 others are based on  existing technologies. The planned instruments and the state of  technology on each are listed in table 2.
Unlike the current polar satellite program, in which the four centers use  different approaches to process raw data into the environmental data  records that they are responsible for, the NPOESS integrated data  processing systemto be located at the four centers—is expected to  provide a standard system to produce these data sets and products. The  four processing centers will continue to use these data sets to produce  other derived products, as well as for input to their numerical prediction  models.
NPOESS is planned to produce 55 EDRs, including atmospheric vertical  temperature profile, sea surface temperature, cloud base height, ocean  wave characteristics, and ozone profile. Some of these EDRs are  comparable to existing products, whereas others are new. The user  community designated six of these data products—supported by four  sensors—as key EDRs, and noted that failure to provide them would  cause the system to be reevaluated or the program to be terminated.
section_title: Acquisition Strategy
paragraphs: The NPOESS acquisition program consists of three key phases: the  concept and technology development phase, which lasted from roughly  1995 to early 1997; the program definition and risk reduction phase, which  began in early 1997 and ended in August 2002; and the engineering and  manufacturing development and production phase, which began in August  2002 and is expected to continue through the life of the program. The  concept and technology development phase began with the decision to  converge the POES and DMSP satellites and included early planning for  the NPOESS acquisition. This phase included the successful convergence  of the command and control of existing DMSP and POES satellites at  NOAA’s satellite operations center.
The program definition and risk reduction phase involved both system- level and sensor-level initiatives. At the system level, the program office  awarded contracts to two competing prime contractors to prepare for  NPOESS system performance responsibility. These contractors developed  unique approaches to meeting requirements, designing system  architectures, and developing initiatives to reduce sensor development  and integration risks. These contractors competed for the development  and production contract. At the sensor level, the program office awarded  contracts to develop five sensors. This phase ended when the  development and production contract was awarded. At that point, the  winning contractor was expected to assume overall responsibility for  managing continued sensor development.
The final phase, engineering and manufacturing development and  production, began when the development and production contract was  awarded to TRW in August 2002. At that time, TRW assumed system  performance responsibility for the overall program. This responsibility  includes all aspects of design, development, integration, assembly, test and  evaluation, operations, and on-orbit support. Shortly after the contract  was awarded, Northrop Grumman Space Technology purchased TRW and  became the prime contractor on the NPOESS project.
section_title: Risk Reduction Activities Are Underway
paragraphs: In May 1997, the Integrated Program Office assessed the technical,  schedule, and cost risks of key elements of the NPOESS program,  including (1) overall system integration, (2) the launch segment, (3) the  space segment, (4) the interface data processing segment, and (5) the  command, control, and communications segment. As a result of this  assessment, the program office determined that three elements had high  risk components: the interface data processing segment, the space  segment, and the overall system integration. Specifically, the interface data  processing segment and overall system integration were assessed as high  risk in all three areas (technical, cost, and schedule), whereas the space  segment was assessed to be high risk in the technical and cost areas, and  moderate risk in the schedule area. The launch segment and the command,  control, and communications segment were determined to present low or  moderate risks. The program office expected to reduce its high risk  components to low and moderate risks by the time the development and  production contract was awarded, and to have all risk levels reduced to  low before the first launch. Table 3 displays the results of the 1997 risk  assessment as well as the program office’s estimated risk levels by August  2002 and by first launch.
In order to meet its goals of reducing program risks, the program office  developed and implemented multiple risk reduction initiatives. One risk  reduction initiative specifically targeted the space segment risks by  initiating the development of key sensor technologies in advance of the  satellite system itself. Because environmental sensors have historically  taken 8 years to develop, the program office began developing six of the  eight sensors with more advanced technologies early. In the late 1990s, the  program office awarded contracts for the development, analysis,  simulation, and prototype fabrication of five of these sensors. In addition,  NASA awarded a contract for the early development of one other sensor.  Responsibility for delivering these sensors was transferred from the  program office to the prime contractor when the NPOESS contract was  awarded in August 2002.
Another major risk reduction initiative expected to address risks in three  of the four segments with identified risks is called the NPOESS  Preparatory Project (NPP). NPP is a planned demonstration satellite to  be launched in 2006, several years before the first NPOESS satellite launch  in 2009. It is scheduled to host three of the four critical NPOESS sensors  (the visible/infrared imager radiometer suite, the cross-track infrared  sounder, and the advanced technology microwave sounder), as well as  two other noncritical sensors. Further, NPP will provide the program  office and the processing centers an early opportunity to work with the  sensors, ground control, and data processing systems. Specifically, this  satellite is expected to demonstrate about half of the NPOESS EDRs and  about 93 percent of its data processing load.
Since our statement last year, the Integrated Program Office has made  further progress on NPOESS. Specifically, it awarded the contract for the  overall program and is monitoring and managing contract deliverables,  including products that will be tested on NPP. The program office is also  continuing to work on various other risk reduction activities, including  learning from experiences with sensors on existing platforms, including  NASA research satellites, the WINDSAT/Coriolis weather satellite, and the  NPOESS airborne sounding testbed.
section_title: NPOESS Faces Key Programmatic and Technical Risks
paragraphs: While the program office has made progress both on the acquisition and  risk reduction activities, the NPOESS program faces key programmatic  and technical risks that may affect the successful and timely deployment  of the system. Specifically, changing funding streams and revised  schedules have delayed the expected launch date of the first NPOESS  satellite, and concerns with the development of key sensors and the data  processing system may cause additional delays in the satellite launch date.  These planned and potential schedule delays could affect the continuity of  weather data. Addressing these risks may result in increased costs for the  overall program. In attempting to address these risks, the program office is  working to develop a new cost and schedule baseline for the NPOESS  program, which it hopes to complete by August 2003.
subsections: section_title: NPOESS Funding and Schedule Are Changing
paragraphs: When the NPOESS development contract was awarded, program office  officials identified an anticipated schedule and funding stream for the  program. The schedule for launching the satellites was driven by a  requirement that the satellites be available to back up the final POES and  DMSP satellites should anything go wrong during these satellites’ planned  launches. In general, program officials anticipate that roughly 1 out of  every 10 satellites will fail either during launch or during early operations  after launch.
Key program milestones included (1) launching NPP by May 2006 in order  to allow time to learn from that risk reduction effort, (2) having the first  NPOESS satellite available to back up the final POES satellite launch in  March 2008, and (3) having the second NPOESS satellite available to back  up the final DMSP satellite launch in October 2009. If the NPOESS  satellites were not needed to back up the final predecessor satellites, their  anticipated launch dates would have been April 2009 and June 2011,  respectively.
However, a DOD program official reported that between 2001 and 2002,  the agency experienced delays in launching a DMSP satellite, causing  delays in the expected launch dates of another DMSP satellite. In late 2002,  DOD shifted the expected launch date for the final DMSP satellite from  2009 to 2010. As a result, DOD reduced funding for NPOESS by about $65  million between fiscal years 2004 and 2007. According to NPOESS  program officials, because NOAA is required to provide no more funding  than DOD does, this change triggered a corresponding reduction in  funding by NOAA for those years. As a result of the reduced funding,  program office officials were forced to make difficult decisions about what  to focus on first. The program office decided to keep NPP as close to its  original schedule as possible because of its importance to the eventual  NPOESS development, and to shift some of the NPOESS deliverables to  later years. This shift will affect the NPOESS deployment schedule.  Table 4 compares the program office’s current estimates for key  milestones, given current funding levels.
As a result of the changes in funding between 2003 and 2007, project office  officials estimate that the first NPOESS satellite will be available for  launch 21 months after it is needed to back up the final POES satellite.  This means that should the final POES launch fail in March 2008, there  would be no backup satellite ready for launch. Unless the existing  operational satellite is able to continue operations beyond its expected  lifespan, there could be a gap in satellite coverage. Figure 12 depicts the  schedule delay.
We have reported on concerns about gaps in satellite coverage in the past.  In the early 1990s, the development of the second generation of NOAA’s  geostationary satellites experienced severe technical problems, cost  overruns, and schedule delays, resulting in a 5-year schedule slip in the  launch of the first satellite; this schedule slip left NOAA in danger of  temporarily losing geostationary satellite data coverage—although no gap  in coverage actually occurred. In 2000, we reported that geostationary  satellite data coverage was again at risk because of a delay in a satellite  launch due to a problem with the engine of its launch vehicle. At that  time, existing satellites were able to maintain coverage until the new  satellite was launched over a year later—although one satellite had  exceeded its expected lifespan and was using several backup systems in  cases where primary systems had failed. DOD experienced the loss of  DMSP satellite coverage in the 1970s, which led to increased recognition  of the importance of polar-orbiting satellites and of the impact of the loss  of satellite data.
section_title: Key Sensor Development Efforts Are Experiencing Cost Increases, Schedule Delays, and Performance Shortfalls
paragraphs: In addition to the schedule issues facing the NPOESS program, concerns  have arisen regarding key components. Although the program office  reduced some of the risks inherent in developing new technologies by  initiating the development of these sensors early, individual sensor  development efforts have experienced cost increases, schedule delays, and  performance shortfalls. The cost estimates for all four critical sensors (the  ones that are to support the most critical NPOESS EDRs) have increased,  due in part to including items that were not included in the original  estimates, and in part to addressing technical issues. These increases  range from approximately $60 million to $200 million. Further, while all  the sensors are still expected to be completed within schedule, many have  slipped to the end of their schedule buffers—meaning that no additional  time is available should other problems arise. Details on the status and  changes in cost and schedule of four critical sensors are provided in  table 5. The timely development of three of these sensors (the  visible/infrared imager radiometer suite, the cross-track infrared sounder,  and the advanced technology microwave sounder) is especially critical,  because these sensors are to be demonstrated on the NPP satellite,  currently scheduled for launch in October 2006.
Critical sensors are also falling short of achieving the required levels of  performance. As part of a review in early 2003, the program officials  determined that all four critical sensors were at medium to high risk of  shortfalls in performance. Program officials recently reported that since  the time of that review, the concerns that led to those risk designations  have been addressed, which contributed to the schedule delays and cost  increases noted above. We have not evaluated the closure of these risk  items. However, program officials acknowledge that there are still  performance issues on two critical sensors which they are working to  address. Specifically, officials reported that they are working to fix a  problem with radio frequency interference on the conical microwave  imager/sounder. Also, the program office is working with NASA to fix  problems with electrostatic discharge procedures and misalignment of key  components on the advanced technology microwave sounder. Further, the  program office will likely continue to identify additional performance  issues as the sensors are developed and tested. Officials anticipate that  there could be cost increases and schedule delays associated with  addressing performance issues.
Program officials reported that these and other sensor problems are not  unexpected; previous experience with such problems was what motivated  them to begin developing the sensors early. However, officials  acknowledge that continued problems could affect the sensors’ delivery  dates and potentially delay the NPP launch. Any delay in that launch date  could affect the overall NPOESS program because the success of the  program depends on learning lessons in data processing and system  integration from the NPP satellite.
section_title: Level of Effort and Time Needed to Develop the Interface Data Processing System for NPP and NPOESS Is Not Known
paragraphs: The interface data processing system is a ground-based system that is to  process the sensors’ data so that they are usable by the data processing  centers and the broader community of environmental data users. The  development of this system is critical for both NPP and NPOESS. When  used with NPP, the data processing system is expected to produce 26 of  the 55 EDRs that NPOESS will provide, processing approximately 93  percent of the planned volume of NPOESS data. Further, the central  processing centers will be able to work with these EDRs to begin  developing their own specialized products with NPP data. These activities  will allow system users to work through any problems well in advance of  when the NPOESS data are needed. We reported last year that the volumes  of data that NPOESS will provide present immense challenges to the  centers’ infrastructures and to their scientific capability to use these  additional data effectively in weather products and models. We also  noted that the centers need time to incorporate these new data into their  products and models. Using the data processing system in conjunction  with NPP will allow them to begin to do so.
While the data processing segment is currently on schedule, program  officials acknowledge the potential for future schedule delays.  Specifically, an initial version of the data processing system is on track to  be delivered at the end of July, and a later version is being planned.  However, the data processing system faces potential risks that could affect  the availability of NPP and in turn NPOESS. Specifically, program officials  reported that there is a risk that the roughly 32 months allocated for  developing the remaining software and delivering, installing, and verifying  the system at two central processing centers will not be sufficient. A  significant portion of the data processing system software involves  converting scientific algorithms for operational use, but program officials  noted that there is still uncertainty in how much time and effort it will take  to complete this conversion. Any significant delays could cause the  potential coverage gap between the launches of the final POES and first  NPOESS satellites to grow even larger.
section_title: NPOESS Program Office Is Working to Address Risks
paragraphs: Program officials are working to address the changes in funding levels and  schedule, and to make plans for addressing specific sensor and data  processing system risks. They acknowledge that delays in the program and  efforts to address risks on key components could increase the overall cost  of the program, which could result on the loss of some or all of the  promised cost savings from converging the two separate satellite systems.  However, estimates on these cost increases are still being determined. The  program office is working to develop a new cost and schedule baseline  based on the fiscal year 2004 President’s budget for the NPOESS program.  Officials noted that this rebaselining effort will involve a major contract  renegotiation. Program officials reported that they hope to complete the  new program baseline by August 2003.
In summary, today’s polar-orbiting weather satellite program is essential to  a variety of civilian and military operations, ranging from weather  warnings and forecasts to specialized weather products. NPOESS is  expected to merge today’s two separate satellite systems into a single  state-of-the-art weather and environmental monitoring satellite system to  support all military and civilian users, as well as the public. This new  satellite system is considered critical to the United States’ ability to  maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting and global  climate monitoring through the year 2018, and the first satellite was  expected to be ready to act as a backup should the launch of the final  satellites in the predecessor POES and DMSP programs fail.
The NPOESS program office has made progress over the last years in  trying to reduce project risks by developing critical sensors early and by  planning the NPOESS Preparatory Project to demonstrate key sensors and  the data processing system well before the first NPOESS launch. However,  the NPOESS program faces key programmatic and technical risks that may  affect the successful and timely deployment of the system. Specifically,  changing funding streams and revised schedules have delayed the  expected launch date of the first NPOESS satellite, and concerns with the  development of key sensors and the data processing system may cause  additional delays in the satellite launch date. These factors could affect the  continuity of weather data needed for weather forecasts and climate  monitoring.
This concludes my statement. I would be pleased to respond to any  questions that you or other members of the Subcommittee may have at  this time.
section_title: Contact and Acknowledgements
paragraphs: If you have any questions regarding this testimony, please contact David  Powner at (202) 512-9286 or by E-mail at pownerd@gao.gov. Individuals  making key contributions to this testimony include Barbara Collier, John  Dale, Ramnik Dhaliwal, Colleen Phillips, and Cynthia Scott.
section_title: Appendix I. Objectives, Scope, and Methodology
paragraphs: Our objectives were to provide an overview of our nation’s current polar- orbiting weather satellite program and the planned National Polar-orbiting  Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program and to  identify key risks to the successful and timely deployment of NPOESS.
To provide an overview of the nation’s current and future polar-orbiting  weather satellite system programs, we relied on prior GAO reviews of the  satellite programs of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric  Administration (NOAA) and the Department of Defense (DOD). We  reviewed documents from NOAA, DOD, and the National Aeronautics and  Space Administration (NASA) that describe the purpose and origin of the  polar satellite program and the status of the NPOESS program. We also  interviewed Integrated Program Office and NASA officials to determine  the program’s background, status, and plans.
To identify key risks to the successful and timely deployment of NPOESS,  we assessed the NPOESS acquisition status and program risk reduction  efforts to understand how the program office plans to manage the  acquisition and mitigate the risks to successful NPOESS implementation.  We reviewed descriptions of the NPOESS sensors and interviewed  officials at the Integrated Program Office, NASA, and DOD to determine  the status of key sensors, program segments, and risk reduction activities.  We also reviewed documents and interviewed program office officials on  plans to address NPOESS challenges.
NOAA, DOD, and NASA officials generally agreed with the facts as  presented in this statement and provided some technical corrections,  which we have incorporated. We performed our work at the NPOESS  Integrated Program Office, NASA headquarters, and DOD offices, all  located in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area. Our work was  performed between April and July 2003 in accordance with generally  accepted government auditing standards.
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