2020 Census: Additional Steps Are Needed to Build on Early Planning
Published: 2012-05-17T00:00:00

Fast Facts:

Highlights:
section_title: Why GAO Did This Study
paragraphs: GAOs prior work has shown that it will be important for the Bureau to reexamine its management and culture as well as the fundamental design of the census in order to ensure a costeffective census. The Bureau recognizes this and has taken steps in at least three management areas toward achieving these goals. As requested, this report addresses the extent to which the Bureau is taking steps in accordance with selected leading practices that GAO identified for (1) organizational transformation, (2) long-term project planning, and (3) strategic workforce planning in preparing for the 2020 Census. To meet these objectives, GAO identified leading practices in these areas that are relevant to the Bureaus 2020 Census planning, reviewed Bureau documents, and interviewed officials.
section_title: What GAO Found
paragraphs: The Census Bureaus (Bureau) early planning and preparation efforts for the 2020 Census are consistent with most leading practices in each of the three management areas GAO reviewed. For example, with respect to its effort to transform its decennial organization, top Bureau leadership has been driving the transformation, and the agency has focused on a key set of principles as it begins to roll-out the strategy to staff. Furthermore, the Bureau has created a timeline to build momentum and show progress. At the same time, however, the amount of change-related activity the Bureau is considering as part of its reorganization of its decennial directorate may not be aligned with the resources the Bureau has allocated to plan, coordinate, and carry it out, and, as a result, the planned transformation efforts may not be sustainable or successful.
Similarly, the Bureau is taking steps consistent with many of the leading practices for long-term project planning, such as by, among other activities, issuing its series of 2020 planning memorandums in 2009 and 2010 that laid out a highlevel framework documenting goals, assumptions, and timing of the remaining four phases of the 2020 Census. The Bureau also created a high-level schedule of program management activities for the remaining phases, documented key elements such as the Bureaus decennial mission, vision, and guiding principles, and produced a business plan to support budget requests, which is being updated annually. Still, the Bureaus schedule does not include milestones or deadlines for key decisions needed to support transition between the planning phases, which could result in later downstream planning activity not being based on evidence from such sources as early research and testing. Furthermore, there has been little effective outreach to the Bureaus congressional stakeholders about its reexamination of census processes and design, which could result in a lack of support on potentially complex or sensitive topics that can be crucial for creating a stable environment in which to prepare for a census.
In the area of strategic workforce planning, the Bureau is taking steps consistent with leading practices such as by identifying current and future critical occupations with a pilot assessment of the skills and competencies of selected information technology 2020 Census positions. However, the Bureau has done little yet either to identify the goals that should guide workforce planning or to determine how to monitor, report, and evaluate its progress toward achieving them, which could help the Bureau identify and avoid possible barriers to implementing its workforce plans.
The steps the Bureau has taken and has planned are positioning it well during this early phase of planning for the 2020 Census. Since much of the Bureaus early progress is tied to additional planning and other activity needed over the coming months, equally important will be the need to execute these activities in a timely manner to maintain the Bureaus early momentum toward a cost-effective 2020 Census.
section_title: What GAO Recommends
paragraphs: GAO recommends that the Census Director take a number of actions to make 2020 Census planning more consistent with key practices in the three management areas, such as examining planned transformation activity to ensure its alignment with resources, developing a more-detailed long-term schedule to smooth transition to later planning phases, implementing effective congressional outreach to ensure a stable planning environment, and setting workforce planning goals and monitor them to ensure their attainment.
The Department of Commerce concurred with GAOs findings and recommendations and provided minor clarifications, which were included in the final report.

section_title: Letter
paragraphs: The characteristics of the census—long-term, large-scale, complex, high- risk, and politically sensitive—together make a cost-effective enumeration  of the nation’s population and housing a monumental project-planning  and management challenge. In preparing for the 2020 Census, the U.S.  Census Bureau (Bureau) faces the daunting task of successfully counting  a population that is growing steadily larger, more diverse, and  increasingly difficult to enumerate in an environment of rapidly changing  technology. Challenges in managing and planning the 2000 and 2010  Censuses led to acquisition problems, cost overruns, and other issues,  and, as a result, we placed both enumerations on our High-Risk List.  Furthermore, the 2010 Census was, at about $13 billion, the costliest U.S.  Census in history.
GAO, 2010 Census: Data Collection Operations Were Generally Completed as Planned,  but Long-standing Challenges Suggest Need for Fundamental Reforms, GAO-11-193  (Washington, D.C.: Dec. 14, 2010). census. The Bureau created a new 2020 Census Directorate and a 2020  Research and Planning Office to take the lead for 2020 preparations.  Furthermore, during the past year the Bureau began a process of  identifying the skills gap in its workforce in order to have the skills and  competencies it needs for developing a more cost-effective 2020 Census.  As the Bureau continues planning the 2020 Census, it will be important  that it implement leading management practices in each of these areas.
Instilling leading management practices will also be important for  sustaining the Bureau’s transformation efforts and bringing about lasting  reforms, especially given the turnover that has been occurring at the head  of the agency over the last 40 years. As we noted in our April 2011  testimony, leadership continuity is critical to sustain efforts that foster  change, produce results, mitigate risks, and control costs over the long  term. than 5 years, and the rest—including the current director who recently  announced plans to resign from the Bureau in August 2012—served an  average term of about 3 years.
However, since 1969 only one Census Director has served longer  In this context, we were asked to assess the extent to which the Bureau’s  2020 Census Directorate and its 2020 Research and Planning Office are  taking steps consistent with leading practices for (1) organizational  transformation, (2) long-term project planning, and (3) strategic workforce  planning for the 2020 Census.
To meet these objectives, we reviewed existing leading practices for  organizational transformation, long-term project planning, and workforce  planning that we and other organizations have previously developed, and  identified those that are most relevant to the Bureau’s early planning for  the 2020 Census. We also reviewed Bureau documents and interviewed  Bureau officials involved in the early planning for the 2020 Census. Using  these sources, we assessed the extent to which the Bureau was  implementing the leading practices. More information on our scope and  methodology can be found in app. I.
GAO, 2010 Census: Preliminary Lessons Learned Highlight the Need for Fundamental  Reforms, GAO-11-496T (Washington, D.C., Apr. 6, 2011).
We conducted this performance audit from August 2011 through May  2012 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing  standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the audits  to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis  for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objective. We believe  that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings  and conclusions based on our audit objective.
subsections: section_title: Background
paragraphs: The Bureau’s experience with the 2010 and prior enumerations has  shown that lack of proper planning and not following leading practices in  key management areas can increase the costs and risks of later  downstream operations. Leading up to the 2010 Census, we reported on  internal organizational, planning, funding, and human capital challenges  that jeopardized the Bureau’s overall readiness. For example, we  reported that additional costs and risks associated with the data capture  technologies used in the 2010 Census were related to a failure to  adequately link specifications for key information technology (IT) systems  to requirements. And the lack of skilled cost estimators for the 2010  Census led to unreliable life-cycle cost estimates. Some of the  operational problems that occurred during the 2010 and prior censuses  are symptomatic of deeper organizational issues. For example, a Bureau  self-assessment carried out in October 2008 found that its organizational  structure made overseeing a large program difficult and hampered  accountability, succession planning, and staff development.
We and other organizations, including the Bureau itself, have stated that  fundamental changes to the design, implementation, and management of  the census must be made in order to address these and other problems.
In addition, the Bureau Director has testified that various parts of the  Bureau could collaborate more effectively. In response, the Bureau has  started numerous change initiatives, some directed at transforming the  Bureau’s organization itself in addition to reexamining its fundamental  approach to how it will conduct the 2020 Census.
GAO, 2010 Census: Preliminary Lessons Learned Highlight the Need for Fundamental  Reforms, GAO-11-496T (Washington, D.C.: Apr. 6, 2011).
The Bureau’s organizational transformation took a significant step forward  in July 2011 when it created a 2020 Census Directorate, with decennial  planning being led by its 2020 Research and Planning Office. The Bureau  is targeting to complete further reorganization of its decennial units by the  end of fiscal year 2013. In order to obtain necessary approval from the  Department of Commerce, the Bureau has set a target of February 2013  for submitting a proposal to the department. To support the organizational  transformation effort, the Bureau has designated an “organizational  change manager,” responsible for planning and managing the day-to-day  organizational change activities. Relatedly, the Bureau is attempting to  develop Bureau-wide, or “enterprise,” standards, guidance, or tools, in  areas such as risk management, project management, systems  engineering, and IT investment management in order to reduce  duplicative efforts across the Bureau.
The Bureau is also reexamining how it fundamentally conducts the  decennial census, committing to identify and implement innovation and  improvements as necessary to conduct the 2020 Census at a lower cost  per housing unit than the approximately $100 per housing unit cost of the  2010 Census (in constant 2010 dollars) while still maintaining high quality.  To do so, the Bureau has divided the 14-year life cycle of the 2020  Census into five phases, beginning in fiscal year 2009 with Options  Analysis. The figure below illustrates the sequencing of the five 2020  Census phases. The current, second, phase, Early Research and  Testing, comprises 35 research projects that are intended to explore how  design areas could be modified to control costs or improve quality, such  as by using the Internet, social media, and administrative records.
As the Bureau reexamines how it will plan the 2020 Census, it is also  reviewing the employee skills and competencies needed to make that  happen, in part by a formal analysis comparing its needs to its in-house  capabilities being carried out by its Human Resources Division in  collaboration with the 2020 Census Directorate. One of the Bureau’s  objectives listed within its early planning documents is to have a highly  competent workforce that is matched with the demands of the 2020  Census. The Bureau’s 2008 internal assessment found that some  activities involving the management of large programs and projects, cost  estimation, and IT lacked staff with core skills and experience. The  Bureau has said that it needs to develop a clear understanding of how  existing skill sets align with emerging needs, determine the best use of  resources to close competency gaps, and provide information to  employees and managers to guide continuing workforce development.
section_title: The Bureau Is Beginning an Organizational Transformation Using Key Practices, but Further Planning Is Needed
paragraphs: The Bureau is undertaking an organizational transformation of its entire  decennial directorate in order to improve collaboration and  communication across its divisions, improve operational efficiencies, and  instill a culture that, according to the Bureau, encourages risk-taking and  innovation without fear of reprisal. The Bureau believes such change is  necessary so that it can more-effectively control costs and enumerate the  population for 2020. In 2010, the Bureau generally completed its peak  census data-collection activities consistent with its operational plans and  released the state population counts used to apportion Congress on  December 21, 2010, several days ahead of the legally mandated end-of- year deadline, but did so at a cost that was higher than originally  estimated. The Bureau is incorporating several leading organizational  transformation practices, which we have previously reported can help  individuals affected by the organizational change adapt to the new  organization, while simultaneously managing the risk of reduced  productivity and effectiveness that often occurs as a result of change. Our  prior work has identified key practices in effective organizational  transformation, six of which are ensure top leadership drives the transformation, focus on a key set of principles and priorities at the outset of the  transformation,  set implementation goals and a timeline to build momentum and show  progress, dedicate an implementation team to manage the transformation  process,  involve employees to obtain their ideas and gain ownership for the  transformation, and establish a communication strategy to create shared expectations and  report related progress.
The Bureau is at an early stage of planning for its transformation, and has  a difficult road ahead to finish the planning and begin implementing it. As  shown in figure 2, the Bureau has taken numerous steps consistent with  the key practices. For example, the Bureau Director has led the drive for  the reorganization, speaking in public and to Bureau staff a number of  times about the need for the Bureau to change if it is to remain cost- effective and relevant in the 21st century. Following the announcement of  the Director’s upcoming August 2012 departure, several Bureau  executives said that they remained committed to the initiatives and vision  shared by the Director, including the organizational transformation. In  addition, the Bureau has focused on a key set of principles and  priorities at the outset of the transformation, by including in its  change-strategy documents not only explicit reliance on the guiding  principles for the 2020 Census, but specific principles to guide the  transformation itself, such as “make data-driven decisions,” “be  responsive and transparent to decennial staff and stakeholders,” and  “focus on an efficient and resilient organization.” The Bureau has also  created a high-level transformation timeline to build momentum and  show progress that includes milestones such as staff workshops and  deliverables such as multiyear roadmaps.
Figure 2 also shows that the Bureau plans to take further steps over the  next year. For example, the Bureau is planning to roll out much of its  transformation planning to its staff in June 2012. In July, the Bureau plans  to more directly engage decennial staff by beginning a series of data- collection activities, intended for staff to identify which decennial planning  processes work well and which need improving, and is considering  reliance on focus groups, online staff surveys, or workshops. Eventually,  and subject to sustained progress of the transformation process, the  Bureau plans by February 2013 to propose specific changes to its  decennial organization and finalize a timeline for carrying out the  transition to a new organization, subject to approval of the changes by the  department and the Office of Management and Budget.
Although the Bureau is taking and planning many positive steps toward  carrying out its organizational transformation, it may be falling short in its  use of an implementation team. Specifically, the amount of change- related activity being planned may not be aligned with the resources the  Bureau has allocated to plan, coordinate, and carry them out. While  Bureau organizational transformation documents were largely in draft and  subject to change at the time we completed our review, the multiple  workshops being planned, the preparation of multiple plan and strategy  documents referenced as deliverables, as well as the collation and  analysis of data to be collected from staff, seem to be substantial work for  the sole staff member dedicated at this time to the transformation. That  person, the current organizational change manager, has time divided  among transformation planning and implementation, support of the  executive council advising on the transformation, leading a working group  on decennial strategic workforce planning, and leading a working group  on 2020 Census organizational change management communication as  well. We have previously observed that a strong and stable  implementation team responsible for the transformation’s day-to-day  management is important to ensuring that transformation receives the  focused attention needed to be sustained and successful. If activity  planned for the transformation is not aligned with the resources dedicated  to it, various change initiatives may not be sequenced or implemented in  a coherent and integrated way, collected data may not be properly  analyzed and used, and risks to implementation may not be identified or  properly mitigated.
In written comments on our draft report, the Department of Commerce  responded that after receiving the draft the Bureau assigned additional  staff and a contractor to support the Bureau’s organizational  transformation activity. This action appears responsive to our finding, and,  as follow-up to this report, we will assess any action the Bureau may take  to examine the alignment between the levels of activity planned for the  transformation and the resources dedicated to their implementation.
section_title: A More Detailed Schedule Could Improve the Bureau’s Existing Project Planning Framework
paragraphs: The Bureau is incorporating several long-term project-planning practices  that—if continued and built upon throughout the decade—should help the  Bureau avoid many of the management problems it has experienced in  prior censuses. For example, the Bureau experienced cost overruns for  the 2010 Census in large part because it had to abandon expensive plans  for increased use of automation in its field operations late in the planning  cycle. Furthermore, preparing a rigorous long-term project plan will help  the Bureau demonstrate to Congress and other stakeholders that it can  effectively design and manage operations as well as control costs. Our  prior work has identified key practices for effective long-term project  planning, five of which are develop a project plan, involve stakeholders, incorporate lessons learned, analyze and mitigate risks, and monitor progress.
As shown in figure 3, the Bureau is taking steps to plan the 2020 Census  generally consistent with two of the five key practices we identified and  partially consistent with the other three. For example, early on, from June  2009 to November 2010, the Bureau began the practice to develop a  project plan by issuing a series of eight 2020 planning memorandumsthat laid out a framework documenting goals, assumptions, and timing of  the remaining four phases of 2020 Census. The Bureau also created a  high-level schedule of program management activities for the remaining  four phases, documented key elements such as the Bureau’s decennial  mission, vision, and six guiding principles, and produced a business plan  to support budget requests, which is being updated annually. Also,  consistent with this practice, the Bureau has identified 19 specific  management-process areas from management literature and other  sources, for which it is developing strategies and plans, such as for  knowledge management and performance management (a complete list  is included in app. V).
The Bureau also took steps to involve stakeholders internally in its early  planning when it officially kicked off the 2020 Census on October 3, 2008,  with a summit of decennial-census managers discussing challenges,  strengths, and weaknesses that would inform the 2020 Census strategic  decision-making process. The Bureau began briefing external  stakeholders in 2009, describing its approach and high-level plans for the  2020 Census at professional-association meetings, at meetings at the  National Academies of Sciences, and to oversight groups such as the  Department of Commerce Office of Inspector General (OIG) and us. To  help implement the practice to incorporate lessons learned, in 2011 the  Bureau created a recommendation follow-up process, built around a  database it created containing recommendations made in recent GAO  and OIG reports on the 2010 Census, and the Bureau has begun  including recommendations from its own 2010 Census evaluation reports  as well. Not having a formal process for recommendation follow-up for  prior censuses made it difficult to ensure that recommendations were  systematically considered by those at the Bureau best able to act on  them. In concert with a knowledge-management strategy, the Bureau has  provided these recommendations to relevant Bureau research and testing  teams for their consideration.
Figure 3 also shows that the Bureau plans to take further steps over the  next several months. For example, the Bureau is planning in August 2012  to finalize both the detailed schedule of all program management,  systems engineering, and training activities for the current research and  testing phase of the 2020 Census, as well as all of the individual project  plans for the research and testing projects that it began during fiscal year  2012. According to Bureau officials, these processes will evolve and  mature as the Bureau learns from the initial implementation and progress  from one phase to the next. And in September, it will issue its initial plan  for managing communications on 2020 Census planning, progress, and  design with established 2020 Census external advisory boards as well as  its own staff.
While the Bureau is taking steps generally consistent with two of the five  leading practices we identified in this area, additional steps are needed to  better implement three practices presented in figure 3. For example, to  better develop a project plan for long-term projects having multiple  phases, the Bureau can take steps to address three weaknesses with its  current scheduling. First, it will be important for the Bureau to include  milestones marking deadlines and decisions that affect later phases. The  Bureau’s business plan for the 2020 Census notes one lesson it is trying  to leverage from prior censuses is to ensure that evidence from such  sources as research and testing is used to inform later planning. But,  current Bureau plans provide inadequate detail on when key decisions  will need to be made to support transition between the planning phases.  For example, while the Bureau has research and testing activity  continuing until 2018, it is not clear what specific activity must be  completed to inform design decisions that need to be made before the  next phase—operational development and systems testing—begins. With  the next phase scheduled to begin as early as 2015, if the needed  activities are not completed on time, the Bureau is at risk of not starting  downstream operations on schedule.
Second, Bureau planning documents do not yet specify when milestones  for management activity will—or needs to—transition from the earlier  research and testing phase to later phases of 2020 Census planning.  Documentation of Bureau management planning focuses naturally and  primarily on the current research and testing phase, and much of it states  explicitly that the scope of consideration is limited to the research and  testing phase. Bureau officials explained that they expect to update most  if not all management plans for later phases according to experience  gained with them during early research and testing as well as the special  needs of later phases. Yet without a schedule for concerted planning to  create, revise, or update management plans to address the needs and  circumstances of later phases beyond research and testing, the Bureau  may find itself in transition without the management plans ready. This  runs the risk of the Bureau having to develop and manage parallel  processes if new ones need to be created before it has taken steps to  decide how pre-existing ones should be revised to support later phases.  A more-visible reflection of projected deadlines, or milestones, for  decisions related to later phases can help ensure that all necessary  efforts leading up to those milestones are prioritized and completed on  schedule.
Third, the Bureau is still unsure when some initiatives to implement  Bureau-wide, or “enterprise,” solutions in a variety of management areas  will be completed. The enterprise solutions the Bureau is implementing  show promise to reduce duplication of effort and improve consistency by  introducing common standards, processes, tools, and systems in areas  such as risk management, project management, systems engineering,  and IT investment management. Yet robust planning relies on  integrated scheduling to ensure that related and dependent activities are  coordinated and sequenced properly. Uncertainty over when enterprise  solutions that 2020 Census is expected to rely on will be ready could lead  to unnecessary duplication of effort or difficulty in mitigating risks of their  delayed completion. Indeed, the 2020 Census staff is already planning  and carrying out activities in these areas. Although it is consulting with  those responsible for the enterprise solutions, the Bureau’s additionally  producing a schedule for each of the enterprise solutions—including  expected dates of delivery for tools, processes, and systems, such as  2020 Census is expected to use—would help minimize risks of  developing decennial processes and tools incompatible with, or requiring  time- or cost-intensive adjustment to harmonize with the forthcoming  enterprise solutions.
Regarding the involvement of stakeholders in 2020 Census planning,  according to senior Bureau officials, there has been little effective  outreach by the Bureau to inform congressional staff about the scope of  topics the Bureau has planned as part of its approach to fundamentally  reexamine how it conducts a census. Bureau officials explained that their  congressional outreach thus far has been on budgetary and non- decennial issues. We have previously reported on the importance of  congressional outreach on the decennial to secure early agreement  between the Bureau and Congress on the Bureau’s fundamental  approach for its next decennial. Congressional support—regardless of  the approach ultimately selected—is crucial for creating a stable  environment in which to prepare for the census. Some of the Bureau’s  planned research, such as partial reliance on the Internet for data  collection, has not been used by the Bureau on a large scale before, and  the Director has also raised the possibility of a need for public debate on  the trade-offs between census cost and census quality. Engaging in  strategic bicameral and bipartisan communication can help build support  for the Bureau’s approach to fundamentally reexamine how it plans for  and conducts a decennial census, and helps ensure an informed public  debate on any potentially complex or sensitive topics.
The Bureau is piloting a process to incorporate lessons learned from  recent oversight reporting and 2010 Census evaluations, and will need to  take additional steps in order to rely on it as a mature tool to follow up on  prior recommendations. We have previously reported that it will be vitally  important for the Bureau to identify lessons learned from the 2010  Census to improve census-taking activities and address long-standing  challenges.recent 2010 Census evaluations and issues and assigns accountability  for follow-up to staff working on research and testing, and the Bureau has  plans to at least initially report on the status of recommendation follow-up.  However, the Bureau lacks a formal process for periodically assessing  the status of follow-up, and thus may lack consistent data to report and a  basis for knowing when to hold staff accountable for that follow-up. The  Bureau does not have in place a mechanism for systematic periodic  reporting on the status of follow-up—such as on its intranet or Internet  pages. Nor does it have performance measures defined for measuring  the extent of recommendation follow-up, such as the percentage  implemented or the percent not followed up on within 12 months, which  would both allow the Bureau to more-easily track and report progress in  incorporating improvements and begin to systematically incentivize team   The Bureau’s process captures recommendations from  or individual performance that incorporates lessons learned in order to  help build a more results-oriented culture. Research and testing project  teams reported out on which recommendations they would be addressing  within their projects, as required by Bureau timelines, and described their  plans for future action on recommendations. Taking these further steps  will help sustain progress in ensuring the Bureau takes advantage of  lessons from prior experiences and insights.
section_title: Bureau Is Incorporating Most Key Strategic Workforce Planning Practices but Does Not Yet Monitor Progress toward Workforce Goals
paragraphs: The Bureau is incorporating several key strategic workforce planning  practices that address its objective of matching its managers, technical  experts, and workforce to the demands of the 2020 Census. Strategic  workforce planning encourages agency managers and stakeholders to  systematically consider what is to be done, when and how it will be done,  what skills will be needed, and how to gauge progress and results,  helping to avoid staffing problems the Bureau has experienced in the  past. For example, a Bureau assessment of its experience with 2010  Census observed that areas such as the management of large programs  and projects, cost estimation, and sophisticated IT lacked staff with core  skills and experience. Our prior work in human capital management has  identified key practices in effective strategic workforce planning, five of  which are:  identify current and future critical occupations, skills, and  competencies and analyze workforce gaps, develop current and future strategies tailored to address gaps and  human capital conditions in critical skills and competencies that need  attention,  involve top management, employees, and stakeholders in developing,  communicating, and implementing the strategic workforce plan, align workforce planning with strategic planning and budget monitor and evaluate progress toward achieving workforce planning  and strategic goals.
As figure 4 indicates, the Bureau is taking steps generally consistent with  three of the five key strategic workforce planning leading practices for its  planning of the 2020 Census, although the steps thus far are largely  limited in scope to workforce planning for the second of the five 2020  Census phases—early research and testing. For example, the Bureau  has begun to identify current and future critical occupations by  piloting a skills and competency assessment of selected IT 2020 Census  positions, including those for 2020 Census research and testing. In  support of developing current and future strategies tailored to  address workforce gaps that need attention, the Bureau has reviewed  its available strategic hiring, retention, and other workforce flexibilities. In  addition, top management has been actively engaged in  communicating the strategic workforce plan, with the Bureau Director  preparing staff for needed changes by speaking about it in town hall  meetings and postings on his intranet blog.
Figure 4 also shows that the Bureau plans to take a number of steps over  the next few months that are generally consistent with the key strategic  workforce planning leading practices. For example, in support of the  practice to analyze workforce gaps the Bureau plans to finalize in May  its project plan detailing the steps, resources, and timeline for conducting  its Bureau-wide skills gap and competency assessment that it will  undertake later in 2012. To help develop current and future strategies,  in June, the Bureau plans to identify which of its existing training courses  can potentially help address gaps it expects it may identify, while in  August, it plans to document how its skills gap and competency analyses  will be updated and used during later census phases with target time- windows for later activity, including how it will align with budget  formulation. The Bureau planned some of these steps in response to our  discussions with its workforce planning officials.
The Bureau’s early effort to analyze competencies has the potential to  help it identify critical occupations and skills that will help it adjust to  changes in technology, budget constraints, and other factors that alter the  environment in which it operates. Top management is actively engaged  in developing the workforce plan and is setting the overall direction for  planning efforts. The Bureau’s plan to document when skills gap and  competency analyses will be conducted for future 2020 Census phases  will help the Bureau manage other supporting activity to ensure that this  important workforce planning activity happens soon.
Still, the Bureau could do more to implement its strategic workforce  planning consistent with key leading practices. The Bureau has not yet  determined its workforce goals from its skills gap and competency  analyses or laid out how it will monitor, report, and evaluate progress in  achieving them. According to the Bureau, it hopes to enable program  managers to flexibly, and on-demand, obtain reports on the status and  strategies targeted to their own goals and workforce needs. Identifying  agency goals for this initiative and a vital few performance measures can  help agency officials think through the scope, timing, and possible  barriers to evaluating and implementing the resulting workforce plans,  and the monitoring and evaluation itself can provide information for  effective oversight by identifying performance shortfalls and appropriate  corrective actions.
Finally, the Bureau has traditionally obtained input on decennial technical,  operational, and policy issues from a diverse group of stakeholders, but,  according to Bureau officials, has not yet considered the role of external  stakeholders in developing, communicating, and implementing its  workforce planning. External stakeholders with appropriate expertise and  experience can play a useful role in supporting an agency with its  workforce planning such as by serving as a sounding board for agency  workforce initiatives. For example, academic institutions and their  accreditation organizations are positioned to discuss both the direction  the respective academic programs are headed and whether agency  needs can be expected to be met by them. A panel of academics from  universities with relevant expertise might provide a two-way forum for how  to align future skills and competency needs for the agency workforce with  the hiring pool that the academic institutions are helping to develop.  Expanding discussions with traditional census advisory groups, such as  those organized to tap professional organizations and diversity  perspectives, may also provide insights and advice on recruiting,  retaining, and developing staff. Identifying those external stakeholders  who can provide insights to Bureau workforce planning challenges and  reaching out to them could help the Bureau develop strategies to help  meet its objective of having a workforce matched with the demands of the  2020 Census.
section_title: Conclusions
paragraphs: The Bureau faces many challenges—internally and externally—in  preparing for a cost-effective 2020 Census, including transforming the  Bureau’s internal organization; rethinking the way the Bureau plans for  and executes decennial censuses; and assessing the skills and  competencies of the Bureau’s workforce. Applying leading management  practices in each of these areas of the Bureau’s preparation for the 2020  Census can help ensure that the Bureau addresses these challenges and  delivers high-quality and timely results. Other areas of planning, such as  IT investment management, that are outside the scope of our review will  also require sustained attention. However, sustaining these efforts going  forward, especially given the Director’s pending August 2012 departure  and the Bureau’s historic issue of leadership continuity, will be a  challenge.
The Bureau is generally or partially following most leading practices in the  management areas of organizational transformation, long-term project  planning, and strategic workforce planning—positioning itself well during  this early phase of planning for the 2020 Census. Much of the Bureau’s  early progress is visible in its plans for additional activity over the coming  months; equally important will be the need to finalize these plans and  execute these activities in a timely manner to maintain the Bureau’s early  momentum toward a cost-effective 2020 Census.
It will be important for the Bureau to take additional steps to further  implement leading practices in each of the three management areas we  reviewed. Reexamining its planned transformation activities in terms of  resources allocated to them will help ensure that its organizational  transformation team can prioritize and implement those activities,  properly use supporting data to enhance those activities, or identify and  mitigate risks to their implementation. The Bureau’s long-term planning  will be aided by improvements in scheduling that will help to ensure the  coordination, management, and resource allocation to activities as  needed, and by a congressional outreach strategy that helps ensure  stakeholders are informed of new census design elements and possible  cost-quality trade-offs. In addition, improvements in the assessment and  reporting on the Bureau’s recommendation follow-up system will help the  Bureau get the best return on that investment. Finally, for strategic  workforce planning, it will be important that the Bureau set agency  workforce goals so that it can determine how to monitor, report, and  evaluate its progress toward achieving those goals. Moving forward,  identifying external stakeholders with expertise and experience in  workforce planning challenges such as recruitment and soliciting  feedback from them will help the Bureau develop strategies to meet its  objective of having a workforce matched with the demands of the 2020  Census. Implementing these remaining leading practices can help the  Bureau stay on track for a well-planned, well-executed 2020 Census.
section_title: Recommendations for Executive Action
paragraphs: We recommend that the Secretary of Commerce require the Under  Secretary for Economic Affairs who oversees the Economics and  Statistics Administration, as well as the Director of the U.S. Census  Bureau, to take the following six actions to improve the Bureau’s process  of organizational transformation, long-term planning, and strategic  workforce planning for the 2020 Census, and thus better position the  Bureau to carry out a cost-effective decennial census:  1.  In order to ensure the Bureau’s decennial organizational  transformation is sustained and successful, examine the alignment  between the levels of activity planned for the transformation and the  resources dedicated to their implementation, and adjust the activity  and resources as appropriate.  2.  In order to ensure prioritization and timely completion of all necessary  research and testing efforts, as well as timely transition to later 2020  Census phases, develop and implement a long-term planning  schedule that includes key milestones and deadlines, including deadlines for decisions that directly affect activity in later 2020 a schedule for creating, revising, or updating governance,  program management, and system engineering and architecture  plans to be used in later 2020 Census phases beyond research  and testing; and expected times of delivery for Bureau-wide enterprise tools,  processes, and standards that 2020 Census planning would be  expected to use.  3.  In order to inform congressional decision-making related to the 2020  Census, develop and implement an effective congressional outreach  strategy, particularly on new design elements the Bureau is  researching and considering as well as on cost-quality trade-offs of  potential design decisions.  4.  In order to improve the Bureau’s process for following up on Bureau  and oversight agencies’ recommendations to improve the 2020  Census, assess the status of recommendation follow-up at regular  intervals, such as every 12 months; and periodically report on the status of recommendation follow-up— such as on the Bureau’s intranet or Internet pages  5.  In order to help the Bureau identify performance shortfalls and  appropriate corrective actions in achieving its strategic workforce  planning goals, set agency workforce planning goals, and determine  how the Bureau will monitor, report, and evaluate its progress toward  achieving those goals.  6.  In order to help the Bureau develop strategies to meet its objective of  having a workforce matched with the demands of the 2020 Census,  identify external stakeholders whose expertise and experience can  provide insights to Bureau workforce planning challenges, such as  recruitment, and reach out to them and incorporate their input as  appropriate.
section_title: Agency Comments and Our Evaluation
paragraphs: We provided a draft of this report to the Secretary of Commerce on April  26, 2012 and received the department’s written comments on May 11,  2012. The comments are reprinted in appendix VI. The Department of  Commerce concurred with our findings and recommendations.
In its comments, the department provided additional context on the role  that the Bureau’s Human Resources Division plays handling strategic  workforce planning for the 2020 Census. We have included this additional  information in the background section of the report where we first discuss  the assessment and analysis initiative.
Also, the department noted that after it had received our draft report, the  Bureau had added additional staff and contractor support to its  organizational transformation activities. We have included this additional  information in the report where we discuss the organizational  transformation leading practices. The Bureau’s action appears responsive  to our recommendation, and we will further assess this as part of our  routine recommendation follow-up process.
We are sending copies of this report to the Secretary of Commerce, the  Director of the U.S. Census Bureau, and interested congressional  committees. The report also is available at no charge on GAO’s website  at http://www.gao.gov.
If you have any questions about this report please contact me at (202)  512-2757 or goldenkoffr@gao.gov. Contact points for our Offices of  Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on the last page  of this report. The GAO staff that made key contributions to this report is  listed in appendix VII.
section_title: Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology
paragraphs: The objectives of our review were to assess the extent to which the U.S.  Census Bureau’s (Bureau) 2020 Directorate and its Research and  Planning Office are taking steps consistent with leading practices for  organizational transformation, long-term project planning, and strategic  workforce planning. For each of these three management areas, we  conducted a literature review to develop the appropriate leading practices  that should be considered in our review.
GAO, 2010 Census: Cost and Design Issues Need to Be Addressed Soon, GAO-04-37  (Washington, D.C.: Jan, 15, 2004).
GAO, Human Capital: Key Principles for Effective Strategic Workforce Planning,  GAO-04-39 (Washington, D.C.: Dec. 11, 2003) and Workforce Planning: Interior, EPA,  and the Forest Service Should Strengthen Linkages to Their Strategic Plans and Improve  Evaluation, GAO-10-413 (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 31, 2010).
Personnel Management’s Human Capital Assessment and  Accountability Framework (HCAAF).
To assess the extent to which the Bureau implemented the practices, we  reviewed numerous Bureau documents pertaining to the early planning of  the 2020 Census. These generally consisted of high-level strategic  framework documents, strategies and plans pertaining to specific  elements of the 2020 Census, planning memorandums, charters for key  steering groups, and timelines for execution. Many of these documents  were considered draft, but Bureau officials said were sufficiently  developed for purposes of our review. We accessed the Bureau’s intranet  to see what information it provides employees about the topics of our  research objectives. We also obtained performance contracts of Senior  Executive Service officials to evaluate the extent to which performance  expectations include 2020 Census planning goals.
We interviewed Bureau officials responsible for the early planning of the  2020 Census, including: the Bureau Director; the 2020 Directorate’s  Research and Planning Office; the Associate Director for  Communications; and senior officials in the Human Resource Division.  We also met with members of the 2020 Census Directorate’s  Organizational Change Management Council, which is charged with  effectively managing the delivery of the new organization design and  providing executive guidance, support, and resolution of the  transformation.
From our review of documents and interviews with all agency officials, we  determined the extent to which each leading practice has been  implemented using a scale of “generally consistent,” “partially consistent,”  and “not consistent.” A practice was considered “generally consistent”  when the evidence demonstrated the Bureau generally fulfilled more than  half the description of the practice. A practice was considered “partially  consistent” when the evidence demonstrated some meaningful actions  had been taken, but less than half the description of the practice was  fulfilled. A practice was considered “not consistent” when the evidence  indicated the practice was not addressed because either no action was  yet taken or the actions that were taken were minimal or not effective.
We reached our assessments by having the primary team members  determine their collective opinion and then sought validation by having  another GAO subject-matter specialist with sufficient familiarity with the  material use professional judgment and develop an independent  assessment. In all circumstances, the coders collaborated to discuss any  differences, which resulted in developing a consensus assessment.
section_title: Appendix II: Bureau Is Using Selected Key Practices to Carry Out Organizational Transformation for 2020 Census Directorate (Text for Interactive Fig. 2)
paragraphs: Appendix II: Bureau Is Using Selected Key  Practices to Carry Out Organizational  Transformation for 2020 Census Directorate  (Text for Interactive Fig. 2)
Description
Define and articulate  a compelling reason  for change.
Illustrative steps planned  (expected date)
Identify indicators of  success (May 2012).
Extent steps are  consistent with  practice  Generally  consistent  expected benefits,  and definition of  success.
Issued strategic plan  for 2020 Census with  annual updates of a  business plan.  Included rationale,  benefits, and  description of factors  that will contribute to  success in strategy  documents.  organizational change  management council  comprising Bureau- wide executives and  senior managers.
Embed core values in  every aspect of the  organization to  reinforce the new  culture.
Incorporate key  principles for the  transformation in  planned activity for  interacting with staff  (July 2012). management strategy  documents explicitly  referring to 2020  Census goals and  guiding principles.  Established eight  guiding principles for  the transformation.
Created high-level  implementation goals  and timeline.
Monitor employee  attitudes and take  appropriate action. transformation timeline  that includes  milestones for  governance,  communication and  education, and  transition activities.  documents that include  targets for achieving  “quick wins,” periodic  reporting, and outreach  events to build  momentum.
Identify measures for  monitoring progress of  transformation (May  2012).  Begin public  dissemination of goals  and timelines (July  2012).  Finalize comprehensive  plan for engaging staff  and stakeholders in  determining what the  new organization should  be (June 2012).  Finalize transition  timeline subject to  approval of proposed  changes (February  2013).
subsections: section_title: Description
paragraphs: Illustrative steps planned  (expected date)
Establish networks to  support  implementation team.  Select high- performing team  members. “organizational change  manager” responsible  for day-to-day  organizational change  activities.
Include expectations  within performance  plans of senior  managers below  executive level to  support transformation  (October 2012).
Extent steps are  consistent with  practice  Partially consistent  Additional Step  Needed  Examine sufficiency  of resources of  implementation  team.
Use employee teams.  Incorporate employee  feedback. support of a group of  managers across every  affected division and  branch (May 2012). appropriate  organizational levels. transformation plan  that specifies a series  of workshops, focus  groups, and other  employee-centered  processes.
Convene town hall  meetings to roll out  strategy to employees  (June 2012).  Implement a vehicle to  obtain anonymous  employee ideas and  feedback on proposals  (June 2012).  Begin series of  workshops and focus  groups (July 2012).  to staff on specific  changes to be made  (February 2013). transformation at unit  staff meetings, fielding  questions and  comments.
Develop comprehensive  communication strategy  (May 2012).
Create and maintain an  and often.  Ensure message  consistency.  Encourage two-way  communication.  Provide information to  meet employee  needs. communication team to  support organizational  change management. intranet site to provide  an official clearing  house of information,  answers to frequently  asked questions, and  points of contact for all  staff (June 2012).  about specific future  changes being planned  (February 2013).
section_title: Appendix III: Bureau Has Developed a High- Level Framework Generally Using Key Leading Practices for Planning Long-Term Complex Projects (Text for Interactive Fig. 3)
paragraphs: Appendix III: Bureau Has Developed a High- Level Framework Generally Using Key Leading  Practices for Planning Long-Term Complex  Projects (Text for Interactive Fig. 3)
Description  Consider all phases of  the project and have  clear and measurable  goals; clearly state all  assumptions,  schedules, and  deadlines; and identify  needed skills and  resources.
Illustrative steps  planned (expected  date)
In a series of eight  memos, laid out a  framework  documenting goals,  assumptions, and  timing of five broad  phases for 2020  Census with cost  estimate milestones  tied to annual budget  request submissions.
Maintained high-level  schedule of activities  for remaining four  phases. and decisions affecting  later phases of 2020  Census.
Finalize detailed  schedule of all  program  management,  systems  engineering,  requirements, and  training activities  (August 2012).  Finalize project  plans for all  research and testing  projects begun in  fiscal year 2012  (August 2012).
Extent steps are  consistent with practice  Partially consistent  Additional steps needed
Document deadlines  updating or replacing  current management  documents for later  phases of 2020 Census.  delivering Bureau-wide  enterprise solutions. work requirements and  interdependencies for  all fiscal year 2012  research and testing  projects.
Involve internal  and external  stakeholders in the  decision-making  process.  Focus on the  highest priority  stakeholder needs  and mission goals.
Conducted 14 planning  workshops with internal  and external  stakeholders to identify  design options to  explore.  Presented high-level  description of research  plans for selected  technical areas to  scientific and data user  advisory groups. management and  systems engineering  training materials to  reflect finalized  processes  (September 2012).  Finalize  communications  plan for informing  and soliciting  feedback from staff  and stakeholders  (September 2012).
Partially consistent  Additional step needed
Develop a plan for  effective outreach to  congress, specifically on  sensitive research and  design issues such as  privacy and cost-quality  trade-offs. ethnicity advisory  committees.
subsections: section_title: Description
paragraphs: Evaluate past  performance and  capitalize on  lessons learned to  improve  performance.  Includes the  processes required  to use project  information to  improve future  efforts. evaluations critical  for early research  and testing  (September 2012).
Extent steps are  consistent with practice  Partially consistent  Additional step needed
Recommendation  follow-up process  requires additional steps  to ensure follow-up on  prior recommendations.
Identify, analyze,  prioritize, and  document risks.  Ideally, assess  more than one  alternative.
Sought to avoid prior  census planning  problems, such as  unreliable cost  estimates, fragmented  and late planning, and  not relying on evidence  from such sources as  research and testing.  Involved former Bureau  executives in planning  workshops.  Implemented a  database for tracking  action plans and status  of prior  recommendations.  Featured analyses of  risks prominently in  early planning activity.
Created 2020 Census  research and testing  risk register, and  included risk in regular  executive discussions.
Adjust 2020 Census  risk management  processes to align  with separate  Bureau-wide  processes being  developed (August  2012). documents were  among the first to be  finalized.
Plan risk  management— the  process of defining  how to conduct risk  management  activities for a  project.  Identify  measurable  performance goals  that describe and  guide successful  planning. Collect  performance data  and report it to  determine how well  the goals are being  achieved.
Ensured that individual  research projects  describe their own  performance  measures.
Begin issuing  monthly status  reports at the  program level (May  2012).
section_title: Appendix IV: Bureau Generally Relied on Key Leading Practices to Carry Out Workforce Planning for 2020 Census (Text for Interactive Fig. 4)
paragraphs: Appendix IV: Bureau Generally Relied on Key  Leading Practices to Carry Out Workforce  Planning for 2020 Census (Text for Interactive  Fig. 4)
subsections: section_title: Description
paragraphs: Illustrative steps planned  (expected date)
Identify mission- critical occupations  and competencies,  which form the  basis for much of  workforce planning.
Piloted skills and  competency  assessment of  selected IT positions  including those for  the second of five  2020 Census  phases.
Finalize project plan  detailing the steps,  resources, and timeline  for conducting Bureau- wide skills gap  assessment (May  2012).  Validate competency  dictionary with subject- matter experts  throughout Bureau  (May 2012).  Begin Bureau-wide  skills gap and  competency  assessment  (September 2012). human capital  strategies and tools  and align these to  eliminate gaps and  improve the  contribution of  critical skills and  competencies.
Inventoried available  strategic flexibilities.
Research and testing  project teams finalize  list of needed skills  (August 2012).  Finalize project plan  detailing the steps,  resources, and timeline  for conducting Bureau- wide skills gap  assessment (May  2012).  Identify existing  training courses within  Bureau to potentially  address gaps (June  2012).
section_title: Description
paragraphs: Illustrative steps planned  (expected date)
Assess progress to  determine whether  workforce planning  goals are being met  and identify the  reasons for any  shortfalls.
Extent steps are  consistent with  practice  Not consistent  Missing steps  needed
Develop process  and specific  goals for  monitoring,  reporting, and  evaluating  Bureau’s  progress toward  workforce goals.  Begin reporting  on Bureau’s  progress toward  workforce goals.
Involve top  management,  employees and  stakeholders in  unique active roles  to design strategic  workforce plans. internally and  externally about need  for workforce  analyses to align with  future strategies.  Bureau meets  monthly with  departmental officials  on human capital  initiatives.  Bureau offered  specific professional  development courses  on the basis of  recommendation of  human capital team. focus groups to  validate competencies  (May 2012).  Begin communicating  to entire staff about  skills gap analyses.  (June 2012).
Partially consistent  Missing step needed  Identify external  stakeholders and  begin outreach  on workforce  planning efforts.
Align workforce and  strategic plans with  budget. management plan  requires inputs from  budget and alignment  with strategic plans.
Document how skills  gap and competency  analyses will be  updated and how it will  be used during later  phases, including  target time windows for  later activity (August  2012).
section_title: Appendix V: List of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Program Management Planning Documents
paragraphs: Consistent with the leading practices of developing a project plan, and to  help operationalize its high-level plan, the U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau)  has identified 19 specific management process areas from management  literature for executing and controlling its research and testing projects for  2020 Census (see table 1). For many of these areas the Bureau has  developed a management-strategy paper that typically includes  standardized sections addressing links to strategic goals, performance  measures, objectives, and strategies; standards and guidelines; roles and  responsibilities; and key assumptions and risks. The Bureau is following  up on each of these strategies with a more-detailed management- planning document that identifies specific methods and techniques the  Bureau will use to implement the strategy as well as how the actions will  link to the Bureau’s other broader strategic documents. In some areas,  the Bureau is bypassing the strategy paper and has either produced or is  planning to produce a finalized—or what the Bureau refers to as a  “baselined”—plan.
section_title: Appendix VI: Comments from the Department of Commerce
section_title: Appendix VII: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments
subsections: section_title: GAO Contact
section_title: Staff Acknowledgments
paragraphs: In addition to the contact named above, Ty Mitchell, Assistant Director;  James Cook; Elizabeth Curda; Jeff Demarco; Vijay D’Souza; Ron Fecso;  Geoff King; Andrea Levine; Steven Lozano; Signora May; Donna Miller;  Janice Morrison; Melanie Papasian; Lisa Pearson; Cynthia Saunders; and  Sarah Veale made key contributions to this report.
section_title: Related GAO Products
paragraphs: Decennial Census: Additional Actions Could Improve the Census  Bureau’s Ability to Control Costs for the 2020 Census. GAO-12-80.  Washington, D.C.: January 24, 2012.  2010 Census: Preliminary Lessons Learned Highlight the Need for  Fundamental Reforms. GAO-11-496T. Washington, D.C., April 6, 2011.  2010 Census: Data Collection Operations Were Generally Completed as  Planned, but Long-standing Challenges Suggest Need for Fundamental  Reforms. GAO-11-193. Washington, D.C.: December 14, 2010.
Workforce Planning: Interior, EPA, and the Forest Service Should  Strengthen Linkages to Their Strategic Plans and Improve Evaluation.  GAO-10-413. Washington, D.C.: March 31, 2010.
Information Technology: Significant Problems of Critical Automation  Program Contribute to Risks Facing 2010 Census. GAO-08-550T.  Washington, D.C.: March 5, 2008.  2010 Census: Cost and Design Issues Need to Be Addressed Soon.  GAO-04-37. Washington, D.C.: January 15, 2004.
Human Capital: Key Principles for Effective Strategic Workforce Planning.  GAO-04-39. Washington, D.C.: December 11, 2003.
Results-Oriented Cultures: Implementation Steps to Assist Mergers and  Organizational Transformations. GAO-03-669. Washington, D.C.: July 2,  2003.
High-Risk Series: Quick Reference Guide. GAO/HR-97-2. Washington,  D.C.: February 1997.