Aviation Workforce: Current and Future Availability of Aviation Engineering and Maintenance Professionals
Published: 2014-02-28T00:00:00

Fast Facts:

Highlights:
section_title: Why GAO Did This Study
paragraphs: Maintaining a safe and robust aviation system requires qualified aviation professionals—including aerospace engineers, aircraft mechanics, and avionics technicians—to design, manufacture, and repair more than 225,000 aircraft. Aviation stakeholders have expressed concerns that an insufficient supply of personnel could develop because of imminent retirements and a perception that fewer people enter these professions.
GAO was asked to review the supply and demand of aviation professionals. This report discusses (1) what available data and forecasts reveal about the need for and potential availability of aerospace engineers, aircraft mechanics, and avionics technicians, and (2) what actions industry and the federal government are taking to help attract and retain these professionals. GAO (1) collected and analyzed data from 2000 through 2012, employment projections from 2012 through 2022, and literature relevant to the aviation professionals' labor markets; (2) reviewed agency documents; and (3) interviewed agency officials about programs that support training. GAO also interviewed 10 aviation industry associations (5 representing employees and 5 representing employers) and selected a non-generalizable sample of 23 private sector employers, based on size and location, to understand any actions used to attract their workforce.
GAO is not making recommendations. GAO received technical comments on this report from Education, DOL, and DOT, which were incorporated as appropriate. DOD did not have any comments on this report.
section_title: What GAO Found
paragraphs: GAO analysis found mixed evidence about a current or possible future shortage of aviation professionals. Aerospace engineers have experienced a low unemployment rate—the most direct measure of a labor shortage—and increases in employment suggesting a shortage may exist; however, earnings for the occupation have stayed about the same. Data provide less support for a shortage of aircraft mechanics; while the occupation has had a low unemployment rate, both employment and earnings have stayed about the same, suggesting that demand for this occupation has not outstripped supply. GAO was unable to analyze information on avionics technicians because of insufficient data. In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment projections indicate slower than average or no growth for these three occupations over the next 10 years. Data also suggest the number of people who have received training related to these aviation professions is increasing; however, several other industries compete for these individuals and not all will pursue aviation careers.
Industry and government are taking some actions to attract and retain qualified individuals in these occupations, but employers GAO interviewed remain concerned about future needs. GAO found that most of these employers had some challenges hiring personnel with the skills employers were seeking at the wage they offered. According to economic literature, employers may take several actions in response to a perceived labor shortage—including increasing recruiting efforts and raising wages. Employers reported taking a variety of actions, but few were raising wages. Several agencies—the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the Departments of Defense (DOD), Education, Labor (DOL), and Veterans Affairs—maintain programs that assist individuals interested in aviation careers. For example, in academic year 2011–2012, Education disbursed approximately $1.6 billion in federal grants to students majoring in related fields. Still, most employers and stakeholders stated that maintaining a qualified workforce will be difficult, in part because of a perception that fewer people are interested in aviation careers. GAO was unable to verify these concerns with available data. It could be expected that employers would continue to take actions at their disposal—such as adjusting wages or changing recruiting and training practices—if a labor shortage were to develop. While such actions would be considered typical market responses to a potential shortage, it does not mean such actions are costless or might not affect the industry.

section_title: Letter
paragraphs: The aviation industry is vital to the U.S. economy, generating billions of  dollars in revenue each year, providing employment, bolstering economic  growth, and improving the quality of people’s lives. In 2011, air  transportation contributed almost $70 billion to the U.S. economy and  accounted for over 450,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Economic  Analysis. Maintaining a safe and robust aviation system requires a  sufficient number of qualified aviation professionals to design,  manufacture, repair, and ensure the airworthiness of more than 225,000  civilian aircraft. While unforeseen events—including the terrorist attacks  of September 2001 and the 2008 economic downturn—contributed to a  downsizing of more than 100,000 jobs in the industry throughout the past  decade, employment has increased in more recent years, and the  industry is projecting a growth in demand for air travel and the number of  aircraft manufactured.
Aviation stakeholders have expressed concern that an insufficient supply  of certain types of aviation professionals–aerospace engineers, aircraft  mechanics, and avionics technicians–could develop because of imminent  retirements and a perception that fewer people are choosing to enter  certain aviation professions. You asked that we review the current and  projected future status of the professional aviation workforce. This report  examines (1) what available data and forecasts reveal about the need for  and potential availability of aerospace engineers, aircraft mechanics, and  avionics technicians and (2) what actions industry and the federal  government are taking, if any, to help attract and retain these  professionals.
This report looks specifically at three professions in the aviation  industry—aerospace engineers, aircraft mechanics, and avionics  technicians—which are involved in the design, manufacture, and repair of  aircraft and have been the subject of concerns voiced by industry  stakeholders. To examine current labor market conditions for these  aviation professions, we analyzed data from the Bureau of Labor  Statistics’ (BLS) Current Population Survey (CPS) for years 2000 through  2012 on unemployment rates, employment numbers, and median weekly  earnings (earnings)–referred to as “labor market indicators.” We reviewed  economic literature that describes how to evaluate labor market  conditions that might indicate a labor shortage. To understand the  available workforce, we reviewed and analyzed data from the Department  of Education (Education) on completion rates for degree or certificate  programs that might prepare individuals to work in these professions from  academic years 2000-2001 through 2011-2012; from the Department of  Defense (DOD) on service members working in aviation maintenance  separating from the military from fiscal year 2000 through 2012; and from  the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on mechanic certificates issued  from 2000 through 2012. To assess the reliability of Education, DOD,  and FAA data we reviewed documentation related to these data sources  from our prior reports, agencies’ websites, and interviewed  knowledgeable government officials about the quality of the data. We  determined the data to be sufficiently reliable for our purposes. We  interviewed officials from seven select engineering, aviation maintenance  technician (AMT), and avionics schools to understand training  requirements and changes in demand for graduates. We selected training  programs that varied based on location, size, and program specialty; our  findings from these interviews should not be used to make  generalizations about all training programs, but provide us with insights.  We also reviewed studies that projected future demand for these  professions and interviewed representatives of labor unions and industry  associations. We did not verify the underlying data that these  organizations collected and used in developing their projections of future  demand. To understand the extent to which select employers have had  difficulty attracting or retaining workers and any steps they have taken  often to mitigate perceived shortages, we interviewed representatives and  reviewed data from selected private companies that employ these  professionals–including original equipment manufacturers  (manufacturers); air carriers; and maintenance, repair, and overhaul  facilities (repair stations). We selected 23 employers that ranged in size,  geographic location, and type of work performed. Our findings from these  interviews should not be used to make generalizations about all  employers of these professionals, but provided us with insights. We also  met with and reviewed documents from government officials, various  industry groups that represent these professionals, and experts in labor  economics to identify any actions taken or analyses that have been  performed concerning these issues. See appendix I for more information  about our scope and methodology and a listing of the employers we  interviewed.
We conducted this performance audit from February 2013 through  February 2014 in accordance with generally accepted government  auditing standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the  audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable  basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We  believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our  findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives.
subsections: section_title: Background
paragraphs: As noted, various aviation professionals are involved in the design,  maintenance, and repair of aircraft and aircraft components (see fig. 1).
These professionals are commonly employed by commercial air carriers,  corporate flight departments, repair stations, or manufacturers of aircraft  or aircraft components.
Aerospace engineers working in aviation design aircraft and  components, and test prototypes to make sure that they function  according to design. The vast majority of aerospace engineers have  at least a bachelor’s degree, according to BLS’s Occupational Outlook  Handbook.
Aircraft mechanics inspect, service, and repair aircraft bodies  (airframe) and engines (power plant). Aircraft mechanics can earn a  mechanic certificate from FAA with either an airframe (A) rating,  power plant (P) rating, or combined airframe and power plant (A&P)  ratings, and are referred to as certificated mechanics. According to  FAA data, almost all certificated mechanics (92 percent) hold A&P  ratings. Applicants for a mechanic certificate must pass written and  oral exams and demonstrate competence through a practical test.  Certification is not necessary to work as an aircraft mechanic;  however, without it, a mechanic cannot approve an aircraft for return  to service and must be supervised by a certificated mechanic.  Certificated mechanics that hold A&P ratings generally earn a higher  wage and are more desirable to employers than mechanics who are  not certificated, according to BLS.
For an applicant to be authorized to take the mechanics examination  for the combined A&P ratings, the applicant must either (1) complete  an FAA-certificated AMT school; demonstrate and document relevant  A&P work experience gained through on-the-job training, or (2)  demonstrate and document work experience or some combination of  work experience and education gained through the military working  with airframes and engines. Mechanics trained at an FAA-approved  AMT school complete, at a minimum, 1900 curriculum hours of  training: 750 curriculum hours in airframe subjects, 750 curriculum  hours in power plant subjects, and 400 curriculum hours in general  education subjects. Applicants seeking to take the mechanics  examination for A&P ratings based on qualifying on-the-job training  must provide documentary evidence of 30 months of practical  experience concurrently performing the duties appropriate to the A&P  ratings.
Avionics technicians test and troubleshoot aircraft instruments and  components, install electronic components, and assemble switches or  electrical controls. Avionics technicians receive training either through  schooling, on the job, or in the military. Though some avionics  technicians may hold a mechanics certificate, there is no FAA exam  or certification specific to avionics technicians. However, some  technicians seek certification from the Federal Communications  Commission in the form of, for example, a General Radiotelephone  Operator License.
Some avionics technicians may hold an A&P certificate or an FAA- issued repair-person certificate. A repair-person certificate allows  individuals to perform specific tasks at an FAA-certificated repair  station, commercial operator, or air carrier that is authorized to  perform those tasks. Eligibility for a repair-person certificate requires  employment by and recommendation from the FAA-approved  employer. If an individual who holds a repair-person certificate leaves  employment at that entity, he or she does not retain that certification.
Table 1 shows the employment levels, wages, and the largest type of  employer for the aviation professions discussed in this report, as reported  by BLS.
No single federal agency is tasked with developing the aviation workforce,  but FAA is responsible for a variety of tasks related to developing and  maintaining a qualified workforce. For example, FAA sets the minimum  requirements for the academic curriculum and certifies and oversees  AMT schools across the country. With regard to certification of individual  mechanics, FAA developed and administers the written A&P mechanic  examination; certifies instructors (known as designated mechanic  examiners) to administer the oral and practical tests to candidates;  oversees the examiners; and issues A&P certificates to mechanics who  successfully pass the examination. FAA also certifies and oversees repair  stations within and outside of the United States and oversees   Several other federal agencies,  maintenance performed by air carriers.including DOD, the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), Education, and  the Department of Labor (DOL), play a role in developing and maintaining  a qualified aviation professional workforce, as shown in table 2.
The demand for air travel is highly sensitive to the state of the economy  and to political, international, and even health-related events. As a result,  despite periods of strong growth and earnings over the past decade, the  industry has at times suffered substantial financial distress resulting in the  industry contracting. For example, in response to the 2008 economic  downturn and resulting decrease in demand for commercial air travel,  airlines cut capacity and reduced their workforce. However, as demand  for air travel has rebounded, the number of aircraft in operation and the  size of the workforce are expected to grow. Representatives of the  aviation industry are concerned there will not be a sufficient number of  certain aviation professionals to support this growth—that is, the industry  is concerned that the demand will exceed the available supply and that a  labor shortage will result. While no agreed-upon definition for a labor  shortage exists, it is commonly described as a sustained period during  which the demand for workers in a geographic area exceeds the supply of  workers available, qualified, and willing to work at a particular wage and  under particular working conditions.
section_title: Data and Forecasts Provide Mixed Evidence for a Current or Future Workforce Shortage
paragraphs: Our analyses of labor market data indicate that a shortage of aerospace  engineers may exist, but our analysis found less support for a shortage of  aircraft mechanics. For example, while both have low unemployment  rates, neither employment nor earnings have increased for aircraft  mechanics suggesting that employers’ demand for this occupation has  not outstripped supply. Stakeholders representing these groups also  varied in their overall assessment of the labor market. Further, while  some of these individuals will pursue other careers, the number of people  completing degrees in these or related fields has increased in recent  years, and BLS employment projections indicate slower than average or  no growth through 2022.
subsections: section_title: Evidence Is Mixed for a Current Shortage of Selected Aviation Professionals
paragraphs: While no single metric can be used to identify whether a labor shortage  exists, labor market data can be used as “indicators” —in conjunction with  observations from stakeholders. According to economic literature, one  can look at historical unemployment rates, as well as trends in  employment and earnings.
If a labor shortage were to exist, one would  expect a low unemployment rate signaling limited availability of workers in  a profession; increases in employment due to demand for that occupation  increasing; and increases in wages offered to draw more people into the  industry. Of these three indicators, the unemployment rate provides the  most direct measure of a labor shortage because it estimates the number  of people who are unemployed and actively looking for work in a specific  occupation. The other indicators can be affected by factors unrelated to  a labor shortage; for example, wages may be determined by union  contracts rather than market demand. Results of these indicators can be  analyzed in relation to other occupations and by using absolute scales  defined by benchmarks that we identified in the economic literature.
Two of the three labor market indicators we examined for aerospace  engineers suggest that the profession may be experiencing a labor  shortage (see table 3). From 2000 through 2012, the unemployment rate  for aerospace engineers has averaged 2.3 percent—much lower than the  economy as a whole—and employment has increased by about 50  percent. Both the unemployment rate and employment could be  suggestive of a labor shortage relative to other occupations and based on  the scale we identified in the economic literature. For example, over this  period, aerospace engineers had the 38th (out of 295) lowest  unemployment rate and 45th (out of 490) largest growth in employment.Similarly, according to the 7-point scale we identified in economic  literature, the unemployment rate and employment growth would receive  a 5, which is not the highest rating, but still provides some support for a  labor shortage. Median earnings for aerospace engineers, however,  have stayed about the same over that time period, a statistic that does  not appear consistent with a labor shortage. Specifically, if employers  were experiencing difficulty hiring aerospace engineers, one would expect  earnings to rise to attract new workers to the industry. However, other  factors can also account for a lack of growth in earnings even during a  labor shortage. For example, earnings may be slow to adjust to other  labor market trends, or certain aspects of an industry may prevent wages  from increasing (e.g., a highly competitive industry with slim profit  margins). Furthermore, over our analytical time period, wages were  stagnant through much of the economy as a result of two economic  downturns.
Data for aircraft mechanics provide less evidence of a labor shortage.  From 2000 through 2012, the average unemployment rate for aircraft  mechanics has been 3 percent—about half the rate for the entire  workforce—which could be suggestive of a labor shortage. However,  earnings for aircraft mechanics remained static and employment  decreased. Industry stakeholders varied in their assessment of the labor  market. Some industry officials we spoke with, representing companies  that employ aircraft mechanics across the United States, told us that the  industry was currently experiencing a labor shortage; however, others  believed that there were enough people to perform the work, but  companies were competing to hire the most experienced personnel.  According to one industry stakeholder we spoke, the major airlines are  not having difficulty attracting workers. As another stakeholder explained,  if difficulty existed attracting workers, smaller businesses, and general  aviation—particularly in rural areas—would most likely be affected first.  The low unemployment rate suggests that with few available people to  hire, employers may have difficulty finding people with specific skill sets,  certifications, or work experiences.
Our analysis of labor market data has a number of limitations given the  nature of the CPS data from BLS and the scope of our analysis. SOC  titles are broad, and may not take into account specific requirements an  employer seeks. For example, many employers may require employees  to hold an A&P certificate. However, BLS’s occupational classification for  aircraft mechanics includes both certificated and non-certificated  mechanics. As a result, labor market data may overestimate the number  of available mechanics for certain employers. Moreover, BLS only publicly  reports annual employment data for occupations that have at least 50,000  people; as a result, we were unable to analyze data for avionics  technicians. We identified the following other limitations of the labor  market indicators:
Data are collected through a household survey and are subject to  sampling and response errors. Often, one individual will identify  occupation, employment, and wage data for all household members;  individuals may report incorrect or inconsistent information.
Survey results of unemployment rates are based on the person’s last  job, rather than the longest job held or occupation in which a person is  trained or looking for work: the data, therefore, can miss individuals  who are seeking work in a particular occupation. For example, an  A&P mechanic who lost a job, worked temporarily in the automotive  industry, and was then seeking employment as an A&P mechanic,  would be classified as an automotive mechanic not as an A&P  mechanic, when surveyed by BLS.
BLS reports data on median earnings for aviation professionals in all  stages of their careers, so we could not examine whether starting  earnings have increased, an examination that would be more likely to  indicate if wages were rising to attract entry-level workers.
The data were collected at a national level; while not all indicators  were consistent with a labor shortage, our analysis would not identify  any regional shortages.
Research by BLS and others suggests job vacancy data as another  potential indicator for identifying labor shortages. However, BLS does  not collect information on job vacancies at the occupational level. Job  vacancy data are collected by some states and private companies,  but the data are limited. We could not obtain complete and sufficiently  reliable occupational-level job-vacancy data from these sources.
Finally, as mentioned above, no single measure can provide definitive  evidence as to whether a labor shortage exists. Rather, these data can  indicate the extent to which employers may have difficulty attracting  people at the current wage rate. Moreover, even if perfect data existed,  the term labor shortage is sometimes used to describe a variety of  situations, some of which are generally not considered to be shortages.  For example, during periods of economic recession, employers may  become accustomed to hiring a high caliber of candidate with specific  training or levels of experience at a prescribed wage rate. In these cases,  employers can be more selective when hiring candidates and could, for  example, look for individuals with niche skills or more experience.  However, during an economic expansion, where companies may be  increasing the size of their workforce, it is likely that the number of job  applicants will shrink and employers may have difficulty finding the same  caliber of candidate. Under these circumstances, the employer’s  challenge may become one of quality of available people, not necessarily  quantity of people willing and able to do the job.
section_title: Data Suggest That the Number of Individuals in the Selected Professions Is Increasing, but Several Industries Compete for These Workers
paragraphs: From 2000 through 2012, the number of people identifying as aerospace  engineers and aircraft mechanics and service technicians–both  certificated and non-certificated–has increased, according to BLS data  (see fig. 2). For example, the size of the aircraft-mechanic and service-  technician workforce in 2012 had increased 5 percent since 2000. Moving  forward, a couple stakeholders that represent training programs and  members of the armed services noted that they expect an increase in the  number of available mechanics due to an increase in the number of  completions in aircraft maintenance related degrees and people  separating from the armed services, respectively.
The number of completions in aerospace-engineering-related fields has  generally increased, according to data from Education. For example,  from academic years 2000–2001 through 2011–2012, there has been a  39 percent increase in the number of completions (see fig. 3).
Representatives from engineering programs we spoke with generally  suggested that the number of completions from engineering programs will  be sufficient to meet demand given future BLS employment projections.  Therefore, they suggested that it is unlikely that a labor shortage will  develop in the near future. For example, one representative told us he  would expect demand to be met given the increase in the number of  completions combined with the projected slow growth in government  projections for selected employment in the aviation field. The same  stakeholder noted that the vast majority of engineers are getting  employment offers, but are receiving, on average, fewer offers than in  past years. A union representative we spoke with echoed a similar  sentiment, saying that aerospace engineering needs will be met given the  number of engineers entering the workforce.
Numbers of aerospace engineering completions, however, are not a  direct reflection of the number of individuals entering the aviation  workforce. According to FAA, the industry also uses civil, software, and  chemical engineers, among others. For example, the aviation industry  requires electrical and software engineers to design airplane motors or  electrical circuits and design programs to make air travel faster,  respectively. Further, other industries, such as financial services and  information technology, compete for aerospace and other types of  engineers and often offer less career uncertainty and more exciting job  prospects, according to one industry stakeholder representing aerospace  companies. Officials we spoke with both at engineering training programs  and within industry attributed this to the fact that the aviation industry is  highly cyclical, offering less job security than other industries.
In terms of the other aviation occupations, the number of completions of  AMT-related programs has also increased; however, the number of  completions in avionics related programs has not. Over the past  decade, the number of students receiving degrees in aircraft maintenance  has increased by 48 percent (see fig. 4), while the number of students  receiving degrees in avionics has decreased by 53 percent. However,  data on degrees granted in avionics may not be a good indicator for the  number of people gaining training to be an avionics technician. For  example, according to officials from one school, a sizeable portion of  avionics technicians received training in other fields, including electronics  technology or electrical engineering, which is not captured in these data.  Similarly, some AMT schools offer avionics specialties; though students  may go on to be avionics technicians, according to this data source, they  are classified as aircraft mechanics. According to officials from a couple  selected AMT schools, based on the number of students enrolled in  avionics specialties in their schools, interest in avionics has increased in  recent years.
Nevertheless, we heard from education officials at selected AMT and  avionics schools and others that not all graduating students received job  offers or go to work in the aviation industry upon completion. For  example, officials at the majority of AMT schools we visited told us that  graduates on occasion pursue other fields of work. According to these  officials, some graduates from AMT schools pursue other occupations  that offer higher wages or better working conditions—such as the  industrial heating industry—or occupations that are likely considered  more exciting such as working for amusement parks and NASCAR  (National Association for Stock Car Auto Racing, Inc.). Some officials  suggested this could be a result of students not yet earning an A&P  certificate. However, this also could suggest there are more students  entering the field than jobs available in a particular location or that  employers are hesitant to hire A&P mechanics directly out of school.
Enrollments at AMT schools have generally been increasing and, if  demand existed, AMT schools could train more people to become aircraft  mechanics and avionics technicians. According to the Aviation Technician  Education Council, an organization that represents more than 100 AMT  schools, 10 of those reported that they were, on average, utilizing about  half of their training capacity. This is similar to what we were told by 3 of  the 5 schools we interviewed, which reported that they could or planned  to increase capacity.
The number of aircraft mechanics and avionics technicians separating  from the military—another main source of supply—and entering the  civilian workforce has stayed relatively constant since fiscal year 2001,  but will likely increase in the future, according to DOD officials.  From  fiscal year 2001 through 2012, about 16,000 workers trained in aviation  maintenance related occupations separated from the military annually,  according to DOD data (see fig. 5). However, it is unknown how many of  these individuals stayed in aviation maintenance upon completion of their  military service. Further, according to DOD officials, the vast majority of  these individuals will not hold an A&P certificate when entering the civilian  workforce, a factor that can make them less desirable to employers.  Nevertheless, DOD officials told us that they expect separations for  aviation maintenance workers to increase in the future given planned  workforce reductions.
DOD data for aircraft mechanics include avionics technicians. DOD was unable to  provide data for engineers.
section_title: Projections Suggest Slower Than Average or No Growth for the Selected Aviation Professions
paragraphs: BLS’s employment projections suggest slower than average or no growth  for our selected professions over the next 10 years. From 2012 to 2022,  according to BLS, the U.S. economy is projected to add more than 15.6  million new jobs as total employment grows from nearly 145.4 million to  more than 161 million (an overall 10.8 percent growth rate or an  annualized growth rate of 1.0 percent per year). According to BLS, the  number of aerospace engineers employed in the United States is  projected to increase to 89,100 by 2022, an overall 7.3 percent increase  over the 83,000 employed in 2012. Alternatively, employment for aircraft  mechanics and service technicians and for avionics technicians employed  in the United States is projected to show little or no change through 2022.  Employment for aircraft mechanics and services technicians and avionics  technicians is expected to increase by about 2.5 percent (or 3,000 jobs)  and 2.9 percent (or 500 jobs) over the same 10-year period,  respectively. While air traffic is expected to increase over the coming  decade, according to BLS, it is likely that airlines’ continued outsourcing  of maintenance overseas and the introduction of newer aircraft that  require less maintenance will affect demand for these occupations. While  projections show slower than average or no growth for these occupations,  BLS also provides forecasts of the number of job openings to  accommodate both industry growth and the replacement of workers  leaving these jobs.workers in these three occupations will be to replace those retiring or  leaving the profession.
According to BLS data, most of the demand for new  BLS’s future employment demand for an industry or occupation is  influenced by the projected demand for goods and services produced by  an industry. For example, the projected employment of aircraft mechanics  and service technicians is influenced by the projected demand for air  travel and various manufacturing industries. To estimate future  employment in the various occupations, BLS uses historical economic  and employment data and forecasts of key economic factors, such as  economic growth by sector of the economy, to estimate the number of  jobs that will result in those industries.
While BLS’s projections are helpful in gaining a sense of the expected  growth in aviation employment, developing long-term occupational  employment projections is inherently uncertain for a variety of reasons.  Specifically, these projections rely on a set of assumptions about the  future, some of which may not come to fruition. For example, BLS’s  projection assumes a full-employment economy in the target year, but if a  recession occurred, for example, projections for employment are likely to  be overstated. That said, projecting occupational employment is  reasonably feasible because there are often historical data showing  employment trends that can be compared to, for example, economic  growth and factors affecting the airline industry—including trends in  passenger travel and the cost of key inputs, such as fuel. On the other  hand, analyzing whether a shortage might arise in an occupation would  require an understanding of both the supply and demand characteristics  of the market and an ability to project each of these relationships  independently. The factors underlying those relationships require  information that is more detailed and likely difficult to develop based on  past data, a challenge exacerbated when projecting into the future. For  example, forecasting the labor supply requires understanding how the  number of people who might choose to work in an occupation varies at  different wage rates or working conditions. In the case of the three  selected professions, we have past data on the trends in the number of  degrees or certifications awarded—which tend to show a growing number  of people entering the professions—but these data do not provide a  forecast of future supply. Nonetheless, with employment growth projected  to be slower than average or not to grow and recent trends indicating a  stable or growing supply of personnel, there is little reason to believe that  a significant shortage is likely to arise in the United States over the next  several years.
section_title: Industry and Government Are Taking Some Actions to Facilitate Entry into the Aviation Workforce, but Employers Remain Concerned about Future Needs
paragraphs: Most of the employers we interviewed reported some challenges hiring  individuals in the selected professions; often this was not an issue of an  insufficient number of candidates seeking employment, but rather an  insufficient number of candidates with the experience and skills  employers sought available to work at the wage being offered. Certain  employers, for example those seeking niche or craft skills or those  located far from metropolitan areas, cited particular difficulty attracting  workers. Almost all employers we spoke with reported taking some  actions that economists associate with responding to a labor shortage,  but few were raising wages to attract workers. Federal agencies have  programs in place that support training for the selected aviation  professions, but employers of all sizes, including those that are not  currently experiencing hiring challenges, were concerned that young  people are losing interest in aviation careers and that future employment  needs may go unmet.
subsections: section_title: Employers Reported Varying Levels of Difficulty Filling Vacancies and Attracting Individuals in the Selected Aviation Professions
paragraphs: Most of the employers we interviewed—particularly the small and  medium-sized firms—cited some challenges hiring individuals in the  selected aviation professions with the skills they were seeking at the  wage they offered. Of the 23 employers we interviewed, 16 expressed  some degree of difficulty hiring, though often the issue was not due to an  insufficient number of workers, but rather an insufficient number of  workers with the experience levels employers desired. Employers also  reported challenges hiring mechanics with certain niche or craft skills,  such as upholstery, welding, and cabinetry—skills that are not unique to  aviation. Similarly, employers seeking aerospace engineers, as well as  mechanical and electrical engineers, reported difficulty filling vacancies.  According to some employers and stakeholders we interviewed, attracting  engineers is made difficult by the lack of job security that results from the  cyclical nature of the aerospace industry and the volatility of demand for  aircraft and air travel related to the economy.
Certain employers also cited location as a challenge to attracting  individuals in our selected professions. For example, employers located  farther from metropolitan areas or those considered to be “aviation hubs”  explained that they had difficulty attracting people for engineering and  mechanic positions. Employers seeking to hire mechanics added that in  more rural areas, they would have the most success hiring and retaining  employees from the surrounding areas, but have found it difficult to do so  if there is not a local AMT school to support training needs.
Smaller employers—those with less than 100 employees—often  considered themselves to be at a disadvantage in attracting workers  relative to larger companies. According to 5 of these 13 employers, large  air carriers and major manufacturers are considered more desirable,  offering employees a sense of stability and an air of prestige, often at  higher wages. Employment with an air carrier also offers attractive fringe  benefits, such as the ability to fly on standby or for a discounted fare. One  employer we interviewed, which is collocated at an airport with a repair  station for a large manufacturer, said that despite its offer of comparable  wages, it has a hard time competing with the brand-name recognition of  larger employers. Consistent with this assessment, more than half of the  large employers we interviewed said that they were not currently  experiencing difficulties attracting and retaining workers.
Employers who reported challenges hiring A&P mechanics often  expressed a reluctance to hire recent graduates or recently certificated  A&P mechanics. While the A&P certificate may signal an aptitude and a  level of general knowledge, many employers felt that recent graduates  lack on-the-job experiences to supplement their education. According to  employers, it generally takes between 1 and 3 years to become fully  proficient as a mechanic. As a result, according to 5 of the 23 employers  who provided their opinions, preferred employment candidates were  generally certificated A&P mechanics with at least 2 to 5 years of  experience working with the specific aircraft types that the employer  maintained and repaired because these individuals could make an  immediate contribution with limited supervision.
While employers found the A&P curriculum to generally be well-aligned,  overall, with their needs, some employers we interviewed said that the  curriculum’s focus is on out-dated technologies—such as aircraft built  with dope and fabric—at the expense of more relevant topics, such as  composite materials. We previously reported similar concerns from  industry stakeholders in 2003. Specifically, at that time stakeholders  indicated that the core curriculum at AMT schools provided mechanics  with a solid understanding of basic repair principles, but that some parts  of the curriculum were obsolete and covered aspects of aviation repair  that are rarely needed or used by A&P mechanics. At least two of those  areas—soldering and welding—have been identified by researchers as  subjects that could be deleted or condensed because of infrequency of  use. However, employers we interviewed indicated skills in these areas  were lacking among the current workforce, especially recently certificated  A&P mechanics. Given the diversity in the type and age of aircraft in the  civilian fleet, satisfying the needs of all employers would be difficult. For  example, while dope and fabric aircraft are less common, some  certificated aircraft are still produced with those materials; and while  composite materials are being used in new airframe construction,  aluminum airframes are still the most common.
In addition to challenges hiring workers, 7 of the 23 companies we  interviewed reported that while they had some difficulties retaining  employees, overall retention was not a major issue. That said, according  to representatives of these companies, most of the employees who resign  leave for similar positions at companies that offer higher wages, that are  located in places with a lower cost of living, or that are considered to be  employers that are more attractive. Nevertheless, some leave for other  industries. According to some employers and stakeholders we spoke to,  mechanics have relevant skills for working at a variety of occupations,  including at amusement parks or on oil rigs, which were stated to be  either higher paying or have characteristics employees found more  favorable.
section_title: Employers Are Taking a Variety of Actions to Attract and Retain Individuals in the Selected Aviation Professions
paragraphs: According to economic literature we reviewed, employers—who first  identify a shortage when they encounter difficulty filling vacancies at the  current wage rate—may take a variety of actions in response to a   Their actions vary in desirability for the  perceived labor shortage.employer based on resources required and their permanency. For  example, increasing recruiting requires fewer resources than investing in  technologies that could replace labor; further, recruitment efforts could be  halted if labor market conditions changed, whereas investing in new  technologies cannot be easily undone. Employers may also choose to  take some of these actions for reasons other than filling vacancies—for  example, to improve morale among current employees or to increase  profitability.
In response to difficulties filling employment vacancies, employers may:  Increase recruiting efforts. Increasing recruiting efforts includes such  activities as increasing advertising, using public or private  employment agencies, and paying recruiting bonuses to employees  who refer new hires.
Increase the use of overtime. Employers may choose to have current  employees work additional hours in place of hiring additional workers,  especially if they do not expect hiring difficulties to last for a  substantial period of time.
Reduce the minimum qualifications for the job. Employers may have  set minimum qualifications higher than necessary and may choose to  reduce those qualifications when hiring becomes difficult. Though  employers cannot reduce the requirements for earning A&P  certification, they may choose to hire non-certificated mechanics or  lower required years of experience necessary for consideration for  employment.
Restructure the work to use current or new employees in other  occupations. In some cases, complex jobs can be decomposed into  simpler tasks, allowing less-skilled and perhaps cheaper labor to be  used in place of other occupations. For example, employers may  choose to use less-skilled workers to begin the repair process by  pulling panels from aircraft, freeing A&P mechanics for other tasks.
Substitute machinery and equipment for labor. Employers may  sometimes be able to use machinery or equipment in place of labor.  For example, a die-cut machine can precisely cut sheet metal, a task  that was previously done by hand.
Train workers for the job. In a difficult labor market, an employer that  traditionally relied upon colleges or vocational or trade schools to train  its workforce may choose to offer or sponsor training.
Improve working conditions. Improving working conditions—such as  changes in hours worked, equipment or facility upgrades, training, and  job recognition efforts—may be a means to attract and retain workers.
Offer bonuses to new employees. Employers may offer new  employees a “signing” bonus, such as, covering moving expenses for  agreeing to join a company.
Improve wages and fringe benefits. Increasing wages will help  increase the number of workers willing to work in a particular position  or occupation. However, employers are reluctant to do this because  they may be forced to raise the wages of current employees as well.  Further, unlike some other actions, once wages are raised, it is  unlikely that they will be reduced later if hiring becomes less difficult.
Contract out the work. If employers cannot fill vacancies for  employees in certain occupations, it may contract out those tasks to  another firm.
Turn down work. If a firm has exhausted other means to mitigate its  hiring challenges and vacancies persist, it may choose to turn down  work.
Companies we interviewed took some of the above actions in direct  response to a perceived labor shortage. For example, 10 of the 16  companies that reported hiring difficulties increased recruiting efforts— including using social media and attending career fairs. Many companies  also made use of specialty websites that advertise aviation jobs as well  as staffing and recruiting agencies that offer short-term contract workers  and contract-to-hire options. Almost half of the companies we  interviewed—including those that did not cite challenges hiring—also  developed and leveraged relationships with local schools as a means to  recruit workers. According to one company, its location made attracting  employees difficult and there were no local schools from which to recruit.  In response, it built a relationship with a local technical college with an  automotive-maintenance-training program and hired and trained its  students—with aptitude in painting and certain machinery—for related  aviation tasks.
Almost all companies we interviewed reported training workers for the job,  though few reported providing the initial training to become a mechanic,  instead many offered A&P mechanics they employed the opportunity for  training in areas specific to the work they were doing for the company.  For example, 18 of the 22 companies that reported providing training to  its employees sent employees to training courses specific to the make or  model of aircraft that the company repaired, or to courses that would build  company capabilities on topics such as composites or non-destructive  testing. Only one company we interviewed reported hiring individuals  without formal training, training them on-the-job, and paying for their A&P  testing. Another company reported hiring former military members and  sending them for refresher courses to prepare them for the A&P  certification exam.
Approximately one-third of companies reported reducing their minimum  standards for employment. For example, three companies lowered the  number of years of experience it required of applicants and another said  that it would like to do so in the future to expand its hiring pool. However,  10 of the companies we interviewed said they would not lower standards;  they reasoned that doing so might reduce the quality of their work and  they were not willing to expose themselves or their clients to those risks,  or that doing so would, in the end, be more expensive for them because  non-certificated mechanics need to be under the supervision of a  certificated mechanic. Nine of the companies we interviewed that had  challenges attracting workers also reported having to turn down work  because of staffing constraints, though the frequency varied. According to  some of these companies, turning down work was a last resort. In  addition, in some instances, companies described receiving requests for  services that they could not accommodate in the customer’s desired time  frames, and as a result, the customer went elsewhere.
Few companies we interviewed reported raising wages, improving  benefits, or offering bonuses to attract employees. Five of the 16  companies that reported difficulties filling vacancies also raised wages.  However, only one did so explicitly to attract additional mechanics; two  did so to remain competitive with other employers, one did so following a  multi-year pay freeze, and the last raised wages after it was acquired by a  larger entity. Four companies that reported difficulties filling vacancies  offered bonuses to new employees. Though raising wages and offering  bonuses would be obvious ways to increase the number of workers  willing to work in a particular occupation, doing so could have implications  in the market for air travel or aircraft repair if those costs are passed on to  the customer. The inability to pass those costs on was the reason that  officials from at least one company we interviewed provided for why the  company could not afford to raise wages; according to that company, its  clients—air carriers—paid a fixed amount, leaving no margin for  increased labor costs. In other situations, companies facing competition  from repair stations abroad where labor is cheaper may also find it difficult  to increase wages.
Officials from many of the companies we interviewed were taking some of  the actions we identified for reasons unrelated to difficulty filling  vacancies. For example, 17 of the companies we interviewed indicated  that they used overtime but not necessarily in place of hiring additional  workers. According to those employers, the nature of their business is  such that there are peaks and valleys in workflow. At times, the amount of  work that must be completed is in excess of what can be completed in a  normal workweek; however, it is not a sustained level of work and hiring  additional employees would mean layoffs or having to cut hours at other  points in the year. Eighteen companies also indicated that they improved  working conditions—such as by improving the tools available to  employees, updating safety mechanisms, and installing fans or lighting to  making working in hangars more comfortable—in efforts to improve  morale and retention.
Some actions were taken largely in response to business needs. For  example, almost all of the companies we interviewed reported contracting  out some tasks that were more economical than building the capabilities  to complete them internally. These tasks included non-destructive testing  and parts plating. In addition, approximately half of companies we  interviewed discussed restructuring their work as a means to maximize  efficiency. According to those companies, they did not necessarily  restructure their work in an effort reduce the number of mechanics or  engineers required in response to or because of hiring challenges.  Instead, they sought to maximize the efficiency of their current workforce  by using more experienced mechanics to do work that is more  complicated. Further, while approximately one-third of the companies we  interviewed reported introducing technologies to improve efficiency in the  workplace—for example, automating the troubleshooting part of repair  work—only one company substituted the use of machinery (a die-cut  machine) for positions previously held by people.
section_title: The Federal Government Maintains Several Programs and Initiatives That Can Help Attract People to Aviation-Related Fields
paragraphs: As mentioned previously, while no single agency is tasked with  developing the aviation professional workforce, several maintain  programs that help promote and train people for aviation-related careers.  At the time of its creation in 1958, the FAA was tasked with regulating,  promoting, encouraging, and developing civil aeronautics. In 1996,  following criticism of its response to the ValuJet crash in the Florida  Everglades and to address concerns about its dual role, FAA’s mission  was amended to make ensuring the safety of the national air-space  system the agency’s top priority. According to FAA, it remained  responsible for promotional tasks, but specific references were deleted  from its mandate.
Currently, FAA’s Office of Aviation and Space Education (AVSED) is  tasked with increasing the public’s knowledge of aviation and the key role  air transportation plays in the U.S. economy, and serves to help recruit  new workers into the field. AVSED collaborates with federal, state, and  local agencies, as well as private sector entities, to promote aviation- related science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) skills and  grow the pipeline of students seeking to work in aerospace-related fields  or aviation maintenance. To this end, AVSED produced a DVD and  developed a brochure on aviation maintenance careers that it shares with  college recruiters and high school guidance counselors and distributes at  career fairs, and that has been shown on public television. AVSED also  ran a national poster campaign called, “Yes I Can Do That.” In  partnership with other organizations, AVSED is involved in a variety of  activities, including the Real World Design Challenge, a high school-level  engineering competition; the Build-a-Plane program which provides  schools with aircraft to be used as teaching tools; and the Walk in my  Boots Program, which offers students the opportunity to observe aviation  mechanics in the hangar for a day. In addition, AVSED works with the  Centers of Excellence, which award aerospace research grants to  colleges and the National Coalition of Certification Centers, a network of  education providers and corporations that supports and advances  technology skills in the aviation industry, among others, and promotes  aviation-maintenance technical degrees and careers. Further, AVSED  maintains national partnerships with various groups with shared interest  in growing the aviation workforce, including the Organization of Black  Aerospace Professionals, Women in Aviation International, Youth  Aviation Adventure, and the Experimental Aircraft Association.
AVSED tries to track the number of events it organizes and individuals  who participate; however, it does not have a mechanism to evaluate the  effectiveness of those programs or if the participants pursue an aviation- related career. Without a measure of effectiveness or feedback  mechanism to determine if the materials are reaching AVSED’s target  audience and if that audience is responsive to its efforts, FAA may be  missing opportunities to improve performance. However, according to  AVSED officials, efforts to track program participation and outcomes  would be difficult from a privacy perspective given the ages of its target  audience and would be prohibitively costly to execute. AVSED’s outreach  efforts are done with limited funding as the office does not have a  dedicated budget; instead, AVSED relies on transfers from other offices  for its activities. For example, the DVD and brochures it produced were  made with funds transferred from Flight Standards.
Other agencies also administer programs that could encourage entry into  aviation careers.
DOD trains and employs over 114,000 individuals working in  occupations that are comparable to the aviation professional  occupations discussed in this report. However, while in the military,  mechanics are not mandated to hold A&P certificates. Further, their  training may be for specific tasks or duties and, as a result, does not  necessarily qualify them for eligibility to take the A&P exam. As  previously mentioned, though certification is not required for civilian  employment either, certificated A&P mechanics can command higher  wages and have better promotion potential.
In an effort to help separating service members find civilian  employment and to promote a more professional military workforce,  DOD has undertaken several actions to facilitate A&P certification of  its members. For example, since 2002 the Community College of the  Air Force has run the FAA-approved JSAMTCC bridge program that,  upon completion, confers a certificate of eligibility—equivalent to a  training program diploma—to take the A&P exam. The JSAMTCC  program is available to members of all services who have attained  minimum requirements in aviation maintenance—typically after 3  years of experience in a related position—and includes three self- paced courses taken online in addition to on-the-job training.  According to DOD officials, depending on individual circumstances,  the time to complete the program varies. According to DOD, several  thousand service members have enrolled in the program (see table  4). However, the numbers who have completed the program are much  smaller, likely because deployments and other activities interrupt  coursework. Once eligible for the exam, service members can  complete the written portions of the A&P exam free at testing facilities  located on base. In addition, the Navy, for example, subsidizes the  cost of the practical and oral exams for its members and the Army  awards promotion points for attainment of the certification. In  coordination with the FAA, the services have also standardized their  forms to facilitate proving eligibility to take the exam.
In the last year, DOD also completed a pilot program aimed at  streamlining credentialing and licensing for military members that  included aircraft mechanics. The Navy and Air Force, which employ  the largest number of aircraft mechanics, participated by designing  efforts to increase participation in the technician certification program.  DOD found that though it would be ideal for service members to start  the program early in their military careers, service members lacked an  appreciation for the differences between the military and civilian  requirements for aircraft mechanics, and for the value of FAA  certification, resulting in many choosing not to participate. The  services also found that the cost of taking the A&P exam—on average  $1,750—was prohibitively expensive for some who completed the  JSAMTCC program. As part of the pilot program, the Air Force made  arrangements to pay the fee. The Navy, which already had a program  in place to meet the cost of certification exams, focused on better  marketing for the program. Based on the outcomes of their efforts, the  Navy plans to continue outreach and the Air Force plans to pay for all  exam costs, funding permitting.
In coordination with DOL, VA, and other federal partners, DOD also  administers the Transition Assistance Program (TAP) for eligible separating service members. TAP consists of a 5-day core curriculum  with segments on translating military skills to civilian job requirements,  financial planning, and individual counseling and assessment with the  goal of each service member’s developing an individual transition  plan. It also includes a process that “crosswalks” military jobs to  civilian occupations by evaluating the transferability of skills from the  individual’s military occupational specialty to civilian occupations. In  addition, participants may attend one or more 2-day tracks, including  tracks focused on entering a technical skills training program. Moving  forward, DOD has said that it plans to shift to a Military Life Cycle  Transition Model by October 2014, a more proactive approach  intended to integrate transition preparation—counseling,  assessments, and access to resources to build skills or credentials— throughout the course of a service member’s military career. Federal  laws, as well as DOD policy, generally require that eligible  transitioning service members participate in many components of  TAP; DOD’s annual goal is for 90 percent of eligible separating  service members to attend the mandatory TAP components.
The Post 9/11 GI Bill, established in 2008 and available through VA,  provides full tuition and fees for all public school in-state students and  reimbursement for private institutions of higher learning for up to  $19,198 per academic year.  It is currently VA’s largest education  program. Financial support provides up to 36 months of education  benefits, which are generally payable for 15 years following release  from active duty. Though the program distributed more than $8.5  billion in tuition, housing, and other payments in fiscal year 2012, we  have previously found that problems with its administration and delays  in payment create financial challenges for student veterans.made recommendations to VA to address these problems, and VA  has taken steps to respond to those recommendations, including  efforts related to educating student veterans about education benefits  prior to enrollment and working with postsecondary schools to identify  information to facilitate timely access to other sources of federal  financial aid while VA benefits were processed. Additional benefits are  also available to veterans with higher expenses through the “Yellow  Ribbon Program.”
We
Education offers grants, work-study funds, and low interest loans to  help cover expenses such as tuition and fees, books and supplies,  and room and board, as well as other related expenses. Schools that  offer training in aviation-related fields are eligible for this funding. (See  table 5 for information on the number of students majoring in aviation- related fields receiving aid and the total amount of aid received.) We  did not identify any funding sources that specifically targeted the  selected aviation professions discussed in this report.
DOL: Under the Workforce Investment Act of 1998 (WIA)  administered by DOLindividuals who meet requirements for services—including training to  become an aerospace engineer, aircraft mechanic, or avionics  technician. To be eligible for training support, individuals must first  participate in what are considered core services—job search and  placement assistance—and intensive services—individual  , training services are available to eligible  employment and career plans. WIA does not specify an amount of  time one must spend or the number of attempts one must make to  gain employment before moving to the next level in the sequence of  services, and the state-level administrators of the moneys have  discretion on how much is spent on training relative to other services.  Due to the limited sum of money available, WIA requires that  individuals receiving training funds be unable to obtain grant funding  from other sources to pay the cost of training. According to DOL,  workforce counselors encourage those interested to seek support  from other sources (including VA and Education) prior to seeking WIA  training funds. WIA funds were used in whole or in part to support  training in aviation-related fields for more than 2,000 individuals from  2010 through 2012.
DOL also provides grant moneys to various entities that support  aviation-related training. For example, since 2011, through its Trade  Adjustment Assistance Community College and Career Training Grant  Program, DOL has provided more than $55 million to community  colleges in California, Idaho, Kansas, Michigan, and Washington to  support training in aviation manufacturing and machining, composites,  and engineering technology. Through DOL’s H-1B Technical Skills  Training and Job Accelerator Innovation Challenge Grant Programs,  DOL has provided more than $14.5 million to universities and  localities to provide aerospace and aviation-related education,  training, and job placement assistance directly related to high-growth  occupations for which employers are currently using the H-1B  nonimmigrant visa program to hire foreign workers and to support  regional development.
Despite the availability of these programs, most employers and  stakeholders we interviewed told us that maintaining a qualified aviation  professional workforce will be more difficult in the future due to changes  in K-12 education, a perceived emphasis on earning a 4-year degree, and  the perceived decreased desirability for working in aviation, particularly  aviation maintenance. Several employers cited the absence of vocational  and “shop” classes in high school as a reason interest and critical  knowledge in maintenance are waning. Several employers and  stakeholders we interviewed also said that with parents and counselors  insisting that a college degree is needed for every job, students may not  be aware that there are well-paying professions that do not require a 4- year degree. FAA echoed this sentiment in describing the challenges of  AVSED. According to AVSED, it can be difficult to interest students in  aviation maintenance careers because it is mistakenly perceived to be a  low paying, low skilled occupation. To combat this perception, according  to stakeholders, AVSED and industry must find a means to convince  parents and guidance counselors that not all well-paying careers require  a bachelor’s degree. Several employers and stakeholders also noted that  aviation used to be a more “exciting” industry, which attracted people  even though wages were often lower than other, similar industries. Events  of the last decade—including September 2001 and airline bankruptcies  and mergers—also have resulted in the aviation industry being viewed as  unstable, compared to other industries.
Employers and stakeholders we spoke with did not agree about how to  encourage entry into aviation occupations. Some suggested that FAA  should do more to champion the industry and increase its outreach and  educational efforts. Others suggested that by providing subsidies or tax  credits, government could incentivize students to enter aviation fields and  businesses to hire them. However, others maintained that government  should not have a role and that it was an issue for industry to address.  One company suggested that companies could sponsor students in  exchange for an agreement that, upon graduation, they would work for a  specified period of time for that company. Aerotek, a staffing solutions  company that focuses on aviation, recently instituted a similar program  when it collaborated with two aviation maintenance schools in Canada to  train workers. According to Aerotek, it participated in the curriculum  design to include topics its clients seek and guaranteed the classes would  be full. Students who complete the program are then guaranteed  employment. Aerotek estimated that it trained between 600 and 700  employees in this way.
section_title: Agency Comments
paragraphs: We provided a draft of this report to the departments of Defense (DOD),  Education (Education), Labor (DOL), and Transportation (DOT) for review  and comment. We received technical comments on this report from  Education, DOL, and DOT which were incorporated as appropriate. DOD  did have any comments on the report.
We are sending copies to the appropriate congressional committees, the  Secretaries of Defense, Education, Labor, Transportation, and interested  parties. In addition, this report will be available at no charge on the GAO  website at http://www.gao.gov.
If you or your staff have any questions about this report, please contact  me on (202) 512-2834 or at dillinghamg@gao.gov. Contact points for our  Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on  the last page of this report. Key contributors to this report are listed in  appendix II.
section_title: Appendix I: Objective, Scope, and Methodology
paragraphs: Our report focuses on the supply of and demand for individuals in three  selected aviation professions–aerospace engineers, aircraft mechanics,  and avionics technicians–which are involved in the design, manufacture,  and repair of aircraft and have been the subject of concerns voiced by  industry stakeholders. In this report, we examined: (1) what available data  and forecasts reveal about the need for and potential availability of  aerospace engineers, aircrafts mechanics, and avionics technicians and  (2) what actions industry and the federal government are taking, if any, to  help attract and retain these professionals.
To determine what available data reveal about the current need for and  availability of these professionals, we reviewed relevant economic  literature that describe labor market conditions, developed a summary of  the general economic principles for evaluating labor market conditions,  and identified relevant data sources. Economic literature states that no  single measure exists to determine whether a labor shortage exists;  however, one can look at multiple indicators— including unemployment  rates, employment numbers, and earnings—that might converge to  suggest either the presence or absence of a shortage. We obtained  these data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Population  Survey for years 2000 through 2012. In 2010 BLS adopted the updated  Standard Occupational Classifications (SOC) titles and, as a result, some  occupation’s names changed during the time period we examined. We  used SAS, a statistical software application, to connect data for 2000– 2010 and 2011–2012 by the SOC titles and did not include occupations  for which no exact job title match existed between the two time periods;  this did not affect our occupations of interest. We analyzed how these  indicators have changed over time, and whether these indicators suggest  a labor shortage–that is, whether there appears to be an imbalance  between the labor supply (i.e., available people) and demand (i.e.,  available jobs). We analyzed each occupation relative to all other  occupations and using an absolute scale with benchmarks developed in  previous economic analysis. For the unemployment rate we looked at  the average unemployment rate for each occupation from 2000 through  2012. For both employment and earnings we analyzed any change from  2000 through 2012. To verify our results, we discussed them with  Malcolm Cohen, PhD, labor economist and author of the original indicator  analysis. We incorporated his comments as appropriate. Finally, we  summarized limitations with the data with respect to how we used them.  To assess the reliability of BLS’s CPS data we reviewed documentation  related to the data sources from prior GAO reports and BLS’s technical  documentation about the quality of the data. We determined the data  were sufficiently reliable for the purposes of our indicator analysis to  provide context on the labor market.
To identify future demand for, supply of, or employment projections for  individuals in our selected aviation professions, we performed a literature  review of scholarly material, government reports, and books, among  others; identified any projections for aviation professional occupations;  and analyzed results that projected demand in the United States (or North  America) using databases that included ProQuest, WorldCat, and  LexisNexis. We identified three studies—one performed by the federal  government (BLS) and two performed by industry (the Boeing Company  and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO))–and obtained  the most recent analysis for each. To understand these projections, we  reviewed the processes, methodologies, and sources of information used  to make the projections. We also discussed the projections with the staff  that performed each study. We did not verify the data that the companies  collected and used in making their projections. We also described, based  on economic literature, why forecasting these factors generally includes a  great deal of uncertainty.
To identify trends in sources of supply for individuals in our selected  aviation professions we obtained data through 2012 from sources that  supply such professionals. We analyzed the Department of Education’s  (Education) data on annual completions by major since academic year  2000–2001; data from the Department of Defense (DOD) on service  members separating from the military since fiscal year 2000; and the  Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) data on the number of people  annually obtaining airframe and power plant (A&P) certificates since  2000. Specifically:
Education: To describe national trends in number of completions in  aviation-related majors we analyzed data from Education’s Integrated  Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). We used  Education’s Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) and  matched degree codes to our SOC codes to identify the relevant  degree programs. Specifically, the CIP-SOC relationship indicates  that programs classified in the CIP category prepare individuals  directly for jobs classified in the SOC category. Our analysis of IPEDS  data included all schools that reported enrollment data in these fields.
DOD: To better understand the role of the U.S. military as a source for  our selected professions, we obtained data on service members  separating from the armed forces (i.e., the Navy, Army, Air Force, and  Marine Corps); the current number of aviation maintenance workers in  the military; and forecasted rates of separation for maintenance  workers.understand how separation trends in the future might compare to past  trends. Data for aircraft mechanics includes avionics technicians.  DOD was unable to provide data on aerospace engineers.
We also interviewed military officials at the Pentagon to
FAA: To better understand trends in the number of new A&P  certificates issued and age distribution of current certificate-holders,  we obtained data from FAA on A&P certificates issued from 2000  through 2012, by the type of training the certificate-holder received.  We also obtained data from FAA on A&P certificate-holders as of July  2013 and, using STATA, developed descriptive statistics, including  the distribution of certificates held by age and the total number of  certificates held by those age 70 or younger. The database in which  certificate-holder information is stored maintains records on  individuals until FAA is informed of their death. To better estimate the  number of active A&P mechanics, we excluded individuals over the  age of 70.
To assess the reliability of Education, DOD, and FAA data we reviewed  documentation related to these data sources from our prior reports, and  agencies’ websites, and interviewed knowledgeable government officials  about the quality of the data. After analysis, we determined that the data  were sufficiently reliable to provide general trends in the sources of  supply of individuals in the selected aviation professions. We  supplemented data with interviews from government, industry, 7 select  aviation engineering, maintenance, and avionics training programs, and  unions representing aviation professionals. Schools were selected to  provide a range of perspectives in location, size, and type of program.  Where possible we selected schools in cities where we interviewed  employers. Information collected from these interviews is not  generalizable.
To supplement these broader trends, we selected 23 employers from  FAA’s list of certificated repair stations and air carriers—including original  equipment manufacturers (manufacturers), air carriers, and maintenance,  repair, and overhaul facilities (repair stations)—across the United States  to understand the extent to which specific employers experienced  difficulty attracting and retaining workers and any actions that have been  taken. (For a complete list of employers, see table 6.) We selected  companies based on consideration of several factors, including the total  number of mechanics and repairpersons employed, the ratio of A&P– certificated mechanics to non-certificated mechanics, type of work  performed, and geographic location. We limited our scope to employers  located within the United States. To develop our list of actions that  employers may take to mitigate labor shortages, we reviewed economic  literature and interviewed the authors. Using semi-structured interviews,  we asked all employers whether they had used each action mentioned in  economic literature to attract and retain personnel and, if they had taken  that action, the purpose for doing so. We also asked employers about  the extent to which they expect hiring and retention to improve or become  more difficult in the future. We then performed a content analysis of our  interviews to summarize the extent to which these actions were taken  across companies. We completed 19 of the 23 interviews in person  during site visits to 7 states—California, Georgia, Maryland, North  Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas, and Virginia. The findings from our interviews  with selected employers should not be used to make generalizations  about the views of all employers; however, employers’ observations  related to their ability to fill job vacancies are a component of analyses  that seek to corroborate the existence of an occupational labor shortage.  As such, the information gathered in these interviews sought to  supplement analyses of national-level labor market data with employer  experiences.
To understand the federal government’s role, including funding provided  for aviation-related training, and any actions government has taken to  support the aviation industry and our selected aviation professions, we  identified the relevant federal agencies through interviews with  stakeholders, analysis of our prior reports, and a literature review. The  identified agencies were: FAA, DOD, Veterans Affairs, and DOL. We  interviewed officials to understand the programs each agency operates  that either target the specific occupations or could be used to support the  occupations. We also examined relevant programs, laws, and regulations.  For DOD’s aircraft–maintenance certification program and for DOL’s  Workforce Investment Act-supported training, the respective agencies  provided us with the number of individuals that participated in or  completed the program. To describe federal student aid awarded to  students enrolled in aviation-related majors we analyzed data from  Education’s National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS) 2011- 2012—a survey of a nationally representative sample of students. NPSAS  is a comprehensive study that examines how students and their families  pay for higher education; data are based on administrative records and  student interviews and include students who received financial aid and  those who did not. Similar to our analysis of IPEDS data, we used  Education’s CIP categories and matched degree programs to our SOC  codes of interest to identify the relevant degree programs. Unless noted,  all estimates from NPSAS are within 5 percentage points.
We conducted this performance audit from February 2013 through  February 2014 in accordance with generally accepted government  auditing standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the  audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable  basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We  believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our  findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives.
section_title: Appendix II: GAO Contacts and Staff Acknowledgments
subsections: section_title: GAO Contact
section_title: Staff Acknowledgments
paragraphs: In addition to the contact named above, the following individuals made  important contributions to this report, Andrew Von Ah, Assistant Director;  Amy Abramowitz; Melissa Bodeau; Benjamin Bolitzer; Russ Burnett; Leia  Dickerson; David Hooper; John Mingus; Susan Offutt; Joshua Ormond;  Melissa Swearingen; and Jessica Wintfeld.