2010 Census: Data Collection Is Under Way, but Reliability of Key Information Technology Systems Remains a Risk
Published: 2010-03-25T00:00:00

Fast Facts:

Highlights:
section_title: Why GAO Did This Study
paragraphs: In March 2008, GAO designated the 2010 Census a high-risk area in part because of information technology (IT) shortcomings and uncertainty over the ultimate cost of the census, now estimated at around $15 billion. The U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) has since made improvements to various IT systems and taken other steps to mitigate the risks to a successful census. However, last year, GAO noted that a number of challenges and uncertainties remained, and much work remained to be completed under very tight time frames. As requested, this testimony provides an update on the Bureau's readiness for an effective headcount, covering (1) the reliability of key IT systems; (2) a broad range of activities critical to an effective headcount, some of which were problematic in either earlier 2010 operations or in the 2000 Census, and (3) the quality of the Bureau's cost estimates. The testimony is based on previously issued and ongoing GAO work.
section_title: What GAO Found
paragraphs: Overall, the Bureau's readiness for a successful headcount is mixed. On the one hand, performance problems continue to plague a work flow management system essential for the Bureau's field operations and a payroll processing system that will be used to pay more than 600,000 temporary workers. Both systems have not yet demonstrated the ability to function reliably under full operational loads, and the limited amount of time that remains to address their shortcomings creates a substantial challenge for the Bureau. Aside from the mail response, which is outside of the Bureau's direct control, the difficulties facing these two automated systems represent the most significant risk, jeopardizing the cost and quality of the enumeration. On the other hand, the rollout of other key enumeration activities is generally on track, and the Bureau has taken action to address some previously identified problems. For example, the Bureau has taken steps to reduce the number of temporary workers with unreadable fingerprint cards, a problem that affected an earlier field operation. Among other actions, the Bureau plans to digitally capture a third and fourth set of fingerprints if the first two sets cannot be read for background security checks. The Bureau's 2010 Census communications campaign is also more robust than the one used in the 2000 Census. Key differences from the 2000 campaign include increased partnership staffing, expanded outreach to partner organizations, targeted paid advertising based on market and attitudinal research, and a contingency fund to address unexpected events. To increase participation rates, the Bureau plans to mail a second, replacement questionnaire to census tracts that had low or moderate response rates in the 2000 Census. To help ensure that hard-to-count populations are enumerated, the Bureau plans to employ several initiatives. For example, Service Based Enumeration is designed to count people who lack permanent shelter at soup kitchens, mobile food vans, and other locations where they receive services. The Be Counted program is designed to reach those who may not have received a census questionnaire. To help ensure a complete count of areas along the Gulf Coast, the Bureau is hand delivering an estimated 1.2 million census forms in areas that were devastated by hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Ike. In addition, the Bureau re-examined its cost estimate for Nonresponse Follow-up, the largest and most costly field operation where census workers follow up in person with nonresponding households. The Bureau provided a range of estimates, with $2.3 billion as the mid-point. However, the Bureau's analyses of cost are not complete. According to the Bureau, it continues to reexamine the cost of two other operations related to nonresponse follow-up. Moving forward, it will be important for the Bureau to quickly identify the problems affecting key IT systems and test solutions. Further, given the complexity of the census and the likelihood that other glitches might arise, it will be important for the Bureau to stay on schedule, monitor operations, and have plans and personnel in place to quickly address operational issues.

section_title: Letter
paragraphs: I am pleased to be here today to discuss the U.S. Census Bureau’s  (Bureau) readiness for the 2010 Census. With Census Day, April 1, fast  approaching, the nation has entered one of the most crucial time periods  in the decade-long census life-cycle. In mid-March, the Bureau delivered  questionnaires to around 120 million households, and in the coming  weeks, the Bureau will launch additional operations aimed at counting  people in migrant worker housing, boats, tent cities, homeless shelters,  nursing homes, dormitories, prisons, and other diverse dwellings, as well  as millions of households that fail to mail back their census  questionnaires, all in an effort to ensure a complete and accurate  enumeration. In short, the success of these operations will have a major  impact on the ultimate cost and accuracy of the census.
The task confronting the Bureau is enormous. Few peacetime endeavors,  if any, can match the 2010 Census in terms of size, scope, complexity, and  immutable deadlines. Indeed, to secure a successful headcount, the  Bureau needs to align thousands of activities, process millions of forms,  hire around 1 million temporary employees, and partner with thousands of  public and private sector entities across the country. The Bureau needs to  do all this and more, do it right, and do it under an extremely tight  schedule.
At the same time, the unprecedented commitment of resources and total  cost of the census—now estimated at around $14.7 billion—underscores  the importance of identifying lessons learned from the 2010 headcount in  order to reexamine the nation’s approach to the 2020 Census and future  population tallies.
As you know, in March 2008, we designated the 2010 Census a high-risk  area because of cost overruns and weaknesses in the Bureau’s information  technology (IT) acquisition and contract management function. In the  months that followed, the Bureau made commendable progress in  reducing the risks to a successful census. Nevertheless, this past February,  we testified that overall the Bureau’s readiness for a successful headcount  is mixed. On the one hand, key IT systems—most notably an automated  system used to manage field data collection known as the Paper-Based  Operations Control System (PBOCS) and a personnel and payroll  processing system called the Decennial Applicant Personnel and Payroll  System (DAPPS)—were experiencing significant performance issues. On  the other hand, the rollout of other key enumeration activities is generally  on track, and the Bureau has taken action to address some previously  identified problems.
As requested, my remarks today will focus on the Bureau’s preparedness  for the 2010 Census and the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. In  particular, I will provide an update on the progress the Bureau is making  in addressing issues that prompted us to designate the 2010 Census a high- risk area, including (1) the reliability of key IT systems; (2) a broad range  of activities critical to an effective headcount, some of which were  problematic in either earlier 2010 operations or in the 2000 Census; and (3)  the quality of the Bureau’s cost estimates. The broad range of activities I  will discuss today include procedures for fingerprinting temporary  employees; the rollout of key marketing efforts aimed at improving the  participation of hard-to-count populations and how American Recovery  and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Recovery Act) funds are being used as part  of that effort; the Bureau’s plans for mailing a second, follow-up  questionnaire and the removal of late mail returns; and the Bureau’s plans  to enumerate people who are vulnerable to being missed by the census,  including the homeless and those displaced by recent economic conditions  and the hurricanes that slammed the Gulf Coast.
My testimony today is based on our ongoing and completed reviews of key  census-taking operations. In our review, we analyzed key documents,  including plans, procedures, and guidance for the selected activities, and  interviewed cognizant Bureau officials at headquarters and local census  offices. In addition, we made on-site observations of certain census  promotional events in Boston, Washington D.C., and Atlanta, and observed  the Bureau’s efforts to hand deliver census questionnaires to those in  hurricane-affected areas along the Gulf Coast.
On March 18, 2010, we provided the Bureau with a statement of facts for  our audit work, and on March 22, 2010, the Bureau provided written  comments. The Bureau made some suggestions where additional context  or clarification was needed, and where appropriate, we made those  changes. We conducted our work in accordance with generally accepted  government auditing standards. Those standards require that we plan and  perform the audits to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a  reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit  objectives. We believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable  basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives.
In summary, the Bureau’s readiness for conducting the 2010 Census  remains mixed. Aside from the mail response rate, which is outside of the  Bureau’s direct control, the most significant risk jeopardizing the cost and  quality of the enumeration lies in the performance problems that continue  to plague DAPPS and PBOCS. Indeed, neither system has yet  demonstrated the ability to function reliably under full operational loads,  and the limited amount of time that remains to improve the reliability of  these systems creates a substantial challenge for the Bureau.
In other areas, the Bureau continues to make progress. For example, the  Bureau has improved its fingerprinting procedures for temporary workers,  and its plans to enumerate certain hard-to-count populations are generally  on track and more robust compared to similar efforts during the 2000  Census.
Finally, the Bureau’s analyses of cost are not complete. While the Bureau  has finalized its reexamination of Nonresponse Follow-up (NRFU) costs, it  continues to update the costs for other NRFU-related operations.
Now that the enumeration is under way, it is important to keep in mind  that the size and scope of the tally makes various glitches all but  inevitable. In light of this difficult operating environment, as the Bureau  well knows, it will be critical to (1) stay on schedule; (2) closely monitor  operations with appropriate cost, performance, and scheduling metrics;  and (3) have appropriate plans and personnel in place to quickly address  operational issues.
Importantly, I also want to stress, as we have done in the past, that the  Bureau cannot conduct a successful enumeration on its own. Indeed, the  decennial census is a shared national undertaking, and it is now up to the  general public to fulfill its civic responsibility to mail back the census  questionnaires in a timely fashion. According to the Bureau, each  percentage point increase in the mail response rate saves taxpayers  around $85 million and yields more accurate data compared to  information collected by enumerators from nonrespondents. The bottom  line, Mr. Chairman, is that a key determinant of the success of the 2010  Census is now in the hands of the American people.
subsections: section_title: Background
paragraphs: As you know, Mr. Chairman, the decennial census is a constitutionally  mandated enterprise critical to our nation. Census data are used to  apportion congressional seats, redraw congressional districts, and help  allocate hundreds of billions of dollars in federal aid to state and local  governments each year.
Although an accurate population count is always a difficult task, the 2010  Census is a particular challenge because of various societal trends, such as  concerns over personal privacy, more non-English speakers, and more  people residing in makeshift and other nontraditional living arrangements  because of economic dislocation or natural disasters. As a result, the  Bureau is finding it increasingly difficult to locate people and get them to  participate in the census.
In developing the 2010 Census, a long-standing challenge for the Bureau  has been the reliability of its IT systems. For example, in March 2009, we  reported that the Bureau needed to develop a master list of interfaces  between systems, set priorities for the testing of interfaces based on  criticality, and develop testing plans and schedules. In the months that  followed, while the Bureau strengthened its management and oversight of  its IT systems, additional work was needed under very tight time frames.
More generally, now that the census has moved to the operational phase, it  will be important for the Bureau to stay on schedule. The enumeration has  several absolute deadlines, and an elaborate chain of interrelated pre- and  post-Census Day activities are predicated upon those dates. Specifically,  the Department of Commerce—the Bureau’s parent agency—is legally  required to (1) conduct the census on April 1 of the decennial year, (2)  report the state population counts to the President for purposes of  congressional apportionment by December 31 of the decennial year, and  (3) send population tabulations to the states for purposes of redistricting  no later than 1 year after the April 1 census date. To meet these reporting  requirements, census activities need to take place at specific times and in  the proper sequence. A timeline of key census operations is shown in  figure 1.
section_title: Key IT Systems Continue to Experience Significant Performance Issues
paragraphs: Although the Bureau has made progress in testing and deploying IT  systems for the 2010 Census, significant performance issues need to be  addressed with both PBOCS, the work flow management system, and  DAPPS, the automated system the Bureau is using to process applicants  and handle the payroll of the more than 600,000 temporary employees who  are to work on the census during peak operations.
In March 2009, we reported that the Bureau had a number of problems  related to testing of key IT systems, including weaknesses in test plans and  schedules, and a lack of executive-level oversight and guidance. In that  report, we recommended that the Bureau complete key system testing  activities and improve testing oversight and guidance. The Bureau agreed  with our recommendations. Since that time, we have been monitoring and  tracking the Bureau’s progress and, in February 2010, we testified that  while progress had been made in respect to system testing, key IT systems  were facing critical performance issues.
For example, we reported that in December 2009, the Bureau completed  two iterations of a key performance test, known as the Decennial  Application Load Test. As part of the test, more than 8,000 field staff at  about 400 local census offices performed a combination of manual and  automated tests to assess the performance of key IT systems, including  DAPPS and the first release of PBOCS. In the first test, DAPPS failed and  other key systems, including PBOCS, performed slowly. In the second  iteration, DAPPS completed the test, though performance was slow.  Bureau officials stated that DAPPS performance shortfalls were a result of  three major issues, involving system hardware, software, and the operating  system. They said that they were taking several steps to resolve these  issues, including upgrading and reconfiguring the system, and deploying  additional hardware to support the system, and planned to complete these  efforts by the end of February. At the time, officials acknowledged that it  was critical that DAPPS be fully functional under a heavy load by mid- March, when the Bureau would begin hiring a large number of temporary  employees (about 600,000) for NRFU who will need to be paid using the  system.
The Bureau has since completed many steps to improve DAPPS  performance, and more are planned. However, as of mid-March, the  system was still experiencing capacity limitations and slow response.  These shortcomings were occurring even though approximately 100,000  temporary employees were currently being paid using the system versus  the more than 600,000 employees that will need to be paid at the peak of  field operations. For example, Bureau officials stated that they had already  instructed DAPPS users to implement several work-arounds to improve  system performance, such as reducing the number of system-intensive  reports generated during peak hours. As of March 22, Bureau officials  stated that they had completed additional steps to improve DAPPS  performance, including upgrading and reconfiguring the system’s software  and installing additional hardware. However, Bureau officials also stated  that additional testing and system refinements may be needed to  determine if these upgrades will address the performance issues  previously described. Bureau officials stated that they may not have  sufficient time and resources to add additional server capacity if these  upgrades are not sufficient, so if performance problems remain, officials  stated that the Bureau will identify additional work-arounds to reduce the  demand on the system, including limiting the frequency and times when  field office staff can generate certain reports and run system-intensive  operations.
Performance issues with PBOCS still need to be addressed as well. While  the first release of this system was deployed for early census field  operations in January 2010 and certain components of the second release  were deployed in February 2010, both releases have known defects, such  as limited functionality, slow performance, and problems generating  certain progress and performance reports. For example, Bureau officials  from a local census office in the Gulf Coast, working on hand delivering  questionnaires in the hurricane-affected area, indicated that PBOCS has  been operating very slowly and is occasionally unavailable. Although not  necessarily indicative of PBOCS issues occurring elsewhere in the  country, it does highlight some of the productivity problems resulting from  the shortcomings with PBOCS. The Bureau has also had to restrict the  number of PBOCS users per local census office due to capacity limitations.  In many cases, temporary work-arounds have been communicated to field  staff; however, these issues must be resolved and retested. Furthermore,  the component of the second release that will be used to manage NRFU,  the largest field operation, is still being tested and is not planned for  deployment until mid-April 2010—about 3 weeks later than planned. With  the NRFU operation scheduled to begin in early May 2010, this leaves little  time to address issues identified during testing. Lastly, the development  and testing of the third release of PBOCS is needed before the system is  ready for later field operations, such as the final check of housing unit  status (known as field verification), scheduled to begin in August 2010.
In recognition of the serious implications that a failed PBOCS would have  for conducting the 2010 Census, the Bureau has taken additional steps to  mitigate the outstanding risks. For example, in June 2009, the Bureau  chartered an independent assessment team, chaired by the Bureau’s Chief  Information Officer, to monitor and report on, among other things, the  system’s development and testing progress. Further, the Bureau stated  that in January 2010, it also established the 2010 Census Application  Readiness and Infrastructure Stability Group in order to centralize  leadership and coordination efforts across key systems, including PBOCS.  These efforts are encouraging. However, the aggressive development and  testing schedule presents various challenges. For example, two of the  three releases of PBOCS were not included in the performance test in  December because development of these releases had not yet been  completed. This increases the risk that performance issues, such as those  described above, may reoccur in future releases of the system, and the  Bureau’s ability to resolve and retest these issues before the system is  needed for key field operations will be limited.
In addition to DAPPS and PBOCS, the Bureau will rely on six other key  automated systems to conduct the census. Progress has been made with  respect to system testing. However, much system testing remains to be  completed in the next few months, as shown in table 1.
Given the importance of IT systems to the decennial census, it is critical  that the Bureau ensure that DAPPS, PBOCS, and other key systems are  thoroughly tested and able to meet full operational requirements. The  limited amount of time to resolve what are, in certain cases, significant  performance issues creates a substantial challenge for the Bureau.
section_title: The Implementation of Key Enumeration Activities Continues to Make Progress
paragraphs: In contrast to the IT systems, the rollout of other activities is going more  smoothly. Indeed, the Bureau has taken steps to address certain previously  identified problems, and its plans to improve the enumeration of hard-to- count groups are generally more robust compared to similar activities  during the 2000 Census. Those activities include procedures for  fingerprinting temporary employees; the rollout of key marketing efforts  aimed at improving the participation of hard-to-count populations; the  Bureau’s plans for mailing a second, follow-up questionnaire and the  removal of late mail returns; activities aimed at including the homeless and  people residing in nonconventional dwellings; and the Bureau’s plans to  secure a complete count of those in the hurricane-affected areas along the  Gulf Coast.
subsections: section_title: Bureau Has Taken Steps to Reduce the Number of Unclassifiable Fingerprints of Temporary Workers
paragraphs: The Bureau plans to fingerprint its temporary workforce for the first time  in the 2010 Census to better conduct background security checks on its  workforce of hundreds of thousands of temporary census workers.  However, the Bureau found that during address canvassing, an operation  that the Bureau conducted in the summer of 2009 to verify every address  in the country, 22 percent of the workers (approximately 35,700 people)  hired for the operation had unclassifiable prints. The Federal Bureau of  Investigation (FBI) determined that this problem was generally the result  of errors that occurred when the prints were first taken at the local census  offices.
To fingerprint workers during address canvassing, Bureau employees  captured two sets of fingerprints on ink fingerprint cards from each  temporary worker by the end of the workers’ first day of training. The  cards were then sent to the Bureau’s National Processing Center in  Jeffersonville, Indiana, to be scanned and electronically submitted to the  FBI. If the first set of prints were unclassifiable, then the National  Processing Center sent the FBI the second set of prints. If the results  showed a criminal record that made an employee unsuitable for  employment, the Bureau either terminated the person immediately or  placed the individual in a nonworking status until the matter was resolved.
To help ensure the success of fingerprinting operations for NRFU—which  will peak at approximately 484,000 fingerprint submissions over a 3-day  period from April 28-30, 2010—the Bureau will follow similar procedures,  but has taken additional steps to improve fingerprint image quality. The  steps include refining training manuals used to instruct local census office  staff on how to take fingerprints, scheduling fingerprint training closer to  when the prints are captured, and increasing the length of training.  Further, the Bureau plans on using an oil-free lotion during fingerprinting  that is believed to raise the ridges on fingertips to improve the legibility of  the prints.
The Bureau has also revised its procedures for refingerprinting employees  when both fingerprint cards cannot be read. During address canvassing, if  both sets of fingerprints were unclassifiable, workers were allowed to  continue working if their name background check was acceptable and  would be refingerprinted only if rehired for future operations. Under the  revised policy, the Bureau plans, wherever operationally feasible, to  digitally capture a third and fourth set of fingerprints if the FBI cannot  classify the first two sets. The Bureau plans to purchase approximately  1,017 digital fingerprint scanners. Each local census office will receive at  least one machine, with the remaining scanners to be distributed at the  discretion of the Regional Director. The Bureau estimates that this  additional step could reduce the percentage of workers with unclassifiable  prints from 22 percent to approximately 10 to 12 percent, or an estimated  60,000 to 72,000 temporary workers for NRFU. We did not receive a  response from the Bureau on whether it will allow those workers with  unclassifiable prints to continue to work on NRFU operations.
section_title: The Bureau’s Communications Campaign Is Aimed at Hard-to-Count Groups
paragraphs: A complete and accurate census is becoming an increasingly daunting  task, in part because the nation’s population is growing larger, more  diverse, and more reluctant to participate. To overcome these challenges,  the Bureau has developed the Integrated Communications Campaign  aimed at, among other things, improving the mail response rate and  reducing the differential undercount. An undercount occurs when the  census misses a person who should have been included; an overcount  occurs when an individual is counted in error. What makes these errors  particularly problematic is their differential impact on various subgroups.  Minorities, renters, and children, for example, are more likely to be  undercounted by the census while more affluent groups, such as people  with vacation homes, are more likely to be enumerated more than once.  As shown in table 2, the 2010 communications campaign consists of four  components: the partnership program, paid advertising, public relations,  and an educational program called Census in Schools.
For the 2010 Census, the Bureau has expanded its outreach to partner  organizations, which include state and local governments, community  groups, and businesses. The Bureau increased partnerships from  approximately 140,000 during the 2000 Census to more than 210,000 as of  March 2010. The Bureau’s partnership program stems from its recognition  that without the assistance and support of members of local  communities—trusted voices—the message that participating in the  census is important and confidential will not reach everyone, particularly  those in hard-to-count areas and populations. The Bureau hopes that local  people who are trusted by the communities they represent can promote  the census and persuade everyone to respond.
The communications campaign’s initial budget of $410 million was  increased by $220 million in additional funds appropriated by the  Recovery Act. As a result, the Bureau was able to greatly expand its  communications campaign activities. For example, the Bureau hired about  3,000 partnership staff, over 2,000 more than it originally planned to hire,  and increased its paid advertising purchases targeted at specific ethnic or  language audiences by more than $33 million (85 percent) over its initial  plan of about $39 million. The increased funding should enhance the  Bureau’s capacity to reach out to hard-to-count communities. In all, the  Bureau plans to spend about $72 million on paid advertising targeted to  specific ethnic or language audiences, which is about $11 million more  than the almost $61 million the Bureau plans to spend targeting the  general population.
However, even with the additional Recovery Act funds, the Bureau plans  to spend less for some components of the 2010 paid media buys than it did  for 2000, when compared in constant 2010 dollars. For example, although  the total budget for the 2010 paid advertising is $253 million, which is  about $12 million (5 percent) more than 2000, the Bureau plans to spend  about $133 million of it on the total advertising buy, which is about $27  million (17 percent) less compared to the about $160 million spent in 2000.  Table 3 shows the Bureau’s 2010 budget for paid media buys by target  audience compared to what was spent in 2000.
In addition, the Bureau’s 2010 budget for items other than the actual media  buys—research, testing, labor, travel, production, and other overhead  costs—outpaced that spent in 2000. As shown in table 4, for 2010 the  Bureau budgeted almost $120 million for such overhead costs, while in  2000 the Bureau spent just over $80 million, in constant 2010 dollars. That  $120 million is 47 percent of the total paid media budget, while in 2000  overhead costs accounted for about 33 percent of the paid media budget.
Decreased spending on paid advertising and increased spending on  overhead costs, in real terms, may seem like a step in the wrong direction  for promoting census participation. However, by better targeting paid  advertising buys the Bureau expects to reach those who have historically  been the hardest to count. For example, the Bureau based its decisions on  how to allocate spending across different ethnic and language audiences  based on a variety of factors, such as historical response data for an area,  prevalence of hard-to-count households in a market, population size, and  availability of in-market media, among others. The Bureau also received  input from staff in census regional offices, as well as an independent 2010  Census advisory group called the Race and Ethnic Advisory Committee.
Further, the Bureau targeted the paid advertising messages based on  market and attitudinal research. For example, the Bureau’s attitudinal  research identified five mindsets people have about the census, ranging  from what Bureau research identified as “leading edge”—those who are  highly likely to respond—to the “cynical fifth” who are less likely to  participate because they doubt that the census provides tangible benefits.  The Bureau used this information to develop messages to motivate each  cohort to participate in the census. To target the cynical fifth, for example,  the Bureau developed advertising with the message that the census is  important to their community.
In addition to the use of TV and radio broadcasts, in 2010, the Bureau is  using new methods, such as downloadable podcasts, YouTube videos, and  social media networks such as Facebook and Twitter. Further, the Bureau  is integrating census messages into programming, talk, and entertainment  shows in an attempt to appeal to people in new and more personal ways.
In addition, as shown in table 5, the Bureau has made other noteworthy  changes to 2010 paid advertising and partnership program activities, which  are aimed at expanding outreach to hard-to-count groups and better  monitoring and evaluating campaign effectiveness.
In summary, our analysis suggests that the paid advertising and  partnership activities, along with the other components of the Bureau’s  communications campaign, are generally more robust than the Bureau’s  promotional efforts during the 2000 Census, in that the entire effort is  more comprehensive and activities appear to be more data driven and  targeted. Moving forward, the key challenge facing the campaign is that it  must not only raise awareness of the census, it must also influence  participation, a far more difficult task.
In addition to the communications campaign, the Bureau is taking other  steps to reach out to the public. Particularly noteworthy is the 2010  Census Web site (http://2010.census.gov/2010census), which describes,  among other topics, the purpose of the census, why it is important, and  how the Bureau protects the confidentiality of responses. Information on  the census is available in dozens of languages. Further, the Web site  contains a “Director’s Blog” where the head of the Bureau posts his  thoughts on the enumeration and responds to topical issues and public  concerns. For example, a recent posting explained why, in some cases,  there is a difference between the address on the mailings one receives  from the Bureau and the physical location of the house. Similar  information is provided on the Web site in a list of frequently asked  questions (FAQ).
Looking ahead to the 2020 Census, some of the issues in the Director’s  Blog and FAQs could, to some extent, be handled proactively and more  efficiently through the Bureau’s household mailings. For example,  questions arose as to why the Bureau spent money on an advance mailing  telling people their questionnaires would be arriving soon. Although  research has shown that advance mailings can help increase the response  rate and thus save money, this was not mentioned in the advance letter,  and the Director had to discuss it in his blog in order to reduce confusion  and criticism. Likewise, some people might have been confused by getting  a separate census questionnaire, the American Community Survey, prior to  the decennial questionnaire. This too, could have been addressed as part  of an advance letter. While not every eventuality can be foreseen, as the  Bureau plans for 2020, it will be important for it take stock of the various  inquiries and concerns that arose at the time of the 2010 questionnaire  mailings, and determine whether any of them could be explained up front  as part of the advance letter. Doing so could help improve the public’s  understanding of the Bureau’s approach and help head off issues that  could undermine the response rate, the Bureau’s credibility, or both.
section_title: Second Census Questionnaire Has Potential to Increase Response Rate
paragraphs: The Bureau’s strategy to mail a second, or replacement, census  questionnaire will be implemented for the first time in 2010 and is an  important step toward improving response and decreasing costs.  According to Bureau studies, mailing a replacement questionnaire  increases overall response from households that do not respond to the  initial questionnaire, which could generate significant cost savings by  eliminating the need for census workers to obtain those responses via  personal visits.
The Bureau plans to mail approximately 30 million replacement  questionnaires to all households in census tracts that had the lowest  response rates in 2000 Census (known as blanket replacement). Also, the  Bureau plans to mail approximately 12 million replacement questionnaires  to nonresponding households in other census tracts that had low-to- moderate response rates in 2000 (known as targeted replacement). In  order to enhance the effectiveness of the replacement mailing, the Bureau  will include a cover letter to distinguish the initial and replacement  questionnaires and as an effort to avoid receiving duplicate responses.  Replacement questionnaires will be English only, regardless of whether  the household will receive a bilingual English/Spanish questionnaire in the  initial mailing. According to a Bureau official, mailing a bilingual  replacement questionnaire was logistically impractical for 2010, given the  limitations of the printing process and the 5-day time frame for the  targeted replacement mailing. Thus, in looking forward to the 2020  Census, it will be important for the Bureau to evaluate the possibility of  sending bilingual replacement questionnaires to those households that  initially received a bilingual questionnaire.
The Bureau plans to mail replacement questionnaires between April 1 and  April 10 and develop an initial list of nonresponding households on April 7.  Because the Bureau will likely receive replacement questionnaires after  April 7, it must be able to effectively remove these late mail returns from  the list of nonresponding households, or the NRFU workload. Removing  late mail returns is important because it prevents enumerators from  visiting households that already returned their census forms, thus  reducing NRFU workload and cost as well as respondent burden. As  shown in table 6, the Bureau plans to remove late mail returns from the  NRFU workload four times using one automated and three manual  processes. The Bureau has some experience with the manual process  because some local census offices did some testing of late mail removals  during the 2000 Census. In addition, they have developed quality assurance  procedures for the manual removal process. In the weeks ahead, it will be  important for the Bureau to ensure that local census offices follow these  procedures so that households are not unnecessarily visited by an  enumerator or inadvertently removed from the follow-up workload and  missed in the census count.
section_title: The Bureau Will Employ Special Operations and Programs to Help Enumerate Certain Hard- to-Count Populations
paragraphs: The Bureau has historically experienced challenges in enumerating hard- to-count populations, which has contributed to the undercount in previous  decennials. Those at risk of being missed by the census include people  living in nonconventional dwellings, such as cars and boats, as well as  those living in large group households and converted basements or attics.  People commonly referred to as “homeless” are also at risk of being  missed.
To help ensure that these individuals are counted, the Bureau plans to  employ several initiatives. For example, Service Based Enumeration (SBE)  is designed to count people who lack permanent shelter at soup kitchens,  regularly scheduled mobile food vans, and other locations where they  receive services. This operation, along with a count of people living  outdoors, is to take place from March 29 to March 31, 2010.
Moreover, the Bureau’s Be Counted program is designed to reach those  who may not have received a census questionnaire, including people who  do not have a usual residence, such as transients, migrants, and seasonal  farm workers. The program makes questionnaires available at community  centers, libraries, places of worship, and other public locations throughout  the country. The questionnaires are typically available in six different  languages, with assistance guides in 59 languages, as well as Braille and  large-print English guides. The Bureau has also set up staffed  Questionnaire Assistance Centers (QAC), at which people can ask  questions and obtain guidance on filling out their questionnaires.
According to the Bureau, it plans to establish 30,000 QAC sites that will  also have Be Counted forms, as well as 10,000 stand alone Be Counted  locations. To determine where to locate the Be Counted and QAC sites,  the Bureau used demographic information and worked with local  partnership specialists who used their knowledge of the area to help  ensure they were placed in areas with large hard-to-count populations. The  program is scheduled to run from March 19 to April 19, 2010.
Although these efforts have the potential to produce a more complete and  accurate count, during the 2000 Census, as we noted in our prior work,  such efforts experienced various implementation issues. Table 7  describes some of those issues, and the steps the Bureau says it has taken  to address them for 2010.
In 2000, we reported on limitations that hampered the effectiveness of the  Be Counted and QAC sites. They included the following:  the Bureau was not always satisfied with site selections that local partners  proposed,    a lack of visibility at Be Counted sites,   inadequate recordkeeping and monitoring, and    a lack of quality services provided at QACs.
For the 2010 Census, the Bureau hopes to address these issues in part by    establishing guidelines in selecting Be Counted sites, to ensure  consistency among those involved in decision making about site selection;    having a banner clearly visible to individuals as they walk into a facility  that houses a Be Counted site;    establishing procedures to strengthen recordkeeping activities at Be  Counted sites, including an online system that tracks services the QACs  provide on a daily basis; and    staffing the QACs with trained and paid census staff, compared to 2000  when some QAC staff were volunteers.
section_title: The Bureau Has Tailored Operations to Enumerate Hurricane-Affected Areas
paragraphs: The scale of the destruction in areas affected by hurricanes Katrina, Rita,  and Ike has made getting a complete and accurate population count in  parts of Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas especially challenging (see fig.  2). Hurricane Katrina alone destroyed or made uninhabitable an estimated  300,000 homes. As we have previously testified, the Bureau, partly in  response to recommendations made in our June 2007 report, developed  supplemental training materials for natural disaster areas to help census  address listers, when developing the census address list, identify  addresses where people are, or may be, living when census questionnaires  are distributed. For example, the materials noted the various situations  that address listers might encounter, such as people living in trailers,  homes marked for demolition, converted buses and recreational vehicles,  and nonresidential space, such as storage areas above restaurants. The  training materials also described the clues that could alert address listers  to the presence of nontraditional places where people are living and  provided a script they should follow when interviewing residents on the  possible presence of hidden housing units.
To ensure a quality count in the hurricane-affected areas, the Bureau is  hand delivering an estimated 1.2 million census questionnaires in these  areas through the Update Leave operation, where census workers update  addresses and provide a mailback census questionnaire to each living  quarters in their assigned areas. The Bureau began delivering  questionnaires on March 1, 2010, to housing units that appear inhabitable  in much of southeast Louisiana, south Mississippi, and Texas, even if they  do not appear on the Bureau’s address list. Occupants are being asked to  complete and return the questionnaire by mail. Census workers are also  identifying modifications for the Bureau’s address list, including additions,  deletions, corrections, and spotting duplicate information. The Update  Leave operation is scheduled to last 25 days, and as of March 22, 2010, the  Bureau had completed 67 percent of the workload.
Our observations in the New Orleans area, while not generalizable to other  parts of the country, identified some of the challenges that census workers  experience in the field. Some of those challenges include dogs and other  safety concerns, long distances traveled between addresses, and the  remains of housing units that were left uninhabitable by Hurricane Katrina  at the same locations as occupied housing units (see fig. 3). These types of  challenges could drive up costs because they slow productivity, or might  affect accuracy because they make it difficult to determine habitability.
By hand delivering questionnaires, the Bureau hopes to ensure that  housing units that may have been missed will receive and return  questionnaires, ultimately improving the accuracy of the count. Finally,  the Bureau stated that it must count people where they are living on  Census Day and emphasized that if a housing unit gets rebuilt and people  move back before Census Day, then that is where those people will be  counted. However, if they are living someplace else, then they should be  counted where they are living on Census Day.
section_title: The Bureau Has Revised Its Cost Estimate for Nonresponse Follow- up but Needs to Complete Additional Updates as Planned
paragraphs: In 2008, we reported that the Bureau had not carried out the necessary  analyses to demonstrate that the then life-cycle cost estimate of about  $11.5 billion for the 2010 Census was credible, and we recommended that  the Bureau better document and update the estimate, to which it generally  agreed. Since then, two early census field operations have experienced  major differences between their estimated and actual costs. For address  canvassing, where census workers verify address lists and maps, actual  costs exceeded the Bureau’s initial estimate of $356 million by $89 million,  or 25 percent. In contrast, for group quarters validation, where census  workers verify addresses of group housing, actual costs were below the  Bureau’s estimate of $71 million by about $29 million, or 41 percent.
Because of cost overruns during address canvassing, as well as concerns  over the increased number of vacant units due to foreclosures, the Bureau  has implemented our recommendation and reexamined and updated the  assumptions and other data used to support the cost estimate for NRFU,  the most costly and labor-intensive of all census field operations. The  Bureau recently provided us with the results from that reexamination.  Although we have not fully assessed the Bureau’s analysis, our preliminary  review shows that the Bureau provided a range of possible NRFU cost  estimates, with $2.3 billion being the midpoint. The amount budgeted for  NRFU is $2.7 billion. In assessing the estimate, the Bureau considered a  number of cost drivers. For example, the Bureau reviewed (1) fieldwork  assumptions—such as miles driven per case, pay rates, hours worked per  week, and attrition—which the Bureau updated based on actual 2000  Census data, national and field tests, and address canvassing results; (2)  factors affecting response rate and hence NRFU workload, such as the  national trend in survey response, use of a bilingual questionnaire and  replacement mailing for 2010, and the vacancy rate; and (3) enumerator  productivity rates, which are based on regional managers’ concerns over  enumerating vacant units and non-English-speaking households. Further,  in its analysis, the Bureau cited holding pay rates for NRFU temporary  staff at 2009 levels, rather than increasing rates for 2010, as one of the  reasons for the reduction in NRFU costs.
According to the Bureau, two cost drivers—workload, based on the mail  response rate, and productivity—are uncertain and could have a  significant effect on the ultimate cost of NRFU. For example, the Bureau  states that if the response rate decreases by 2 percentage points due to  extreme circumstances, such as an immigration backlash, costs could  increase by $170 million. Likewise, if PBOCS continues to experience  performance problems causing 2 weeks of lost productivity, the Bureau  says it would need to hire and train more staff to complete NRFU in order  to deliver the apportionment counts to the President by December 31,  2010, which, according to the Bureau, could increase costs by about $138  million.
As we previously stated, revising cost estimates with updated data is an  important best practice for cost estimation. However, the Bureau’s  analyses of cost are not complete. While the Bureau has finalized its  reexamination of NRFU cost, it continues to update the costs for other  NRFU-related operations. These operations include the NRFU  Reinterview, a quality assurance procedure designed to ensure that field  procedures were followed and to identify census workers who  intentionally or unintentionally produced data errors. It also includes the  Vacancy/Delete Check operation, which is a follow-up to NRFU and is  designed to verify the status of addresses classified as vacant or addresses  determined to be nonexistent (deletes) during NRFU, as well as cases  added since the NRFU workload was initially identified. According to the  Bureau, emerging information about the Vacancy/Delete Check operation  suggests that the workload may be much higher than originally expected  and could increase costs from $345 million to $482 million—by almost  $137 million, or 40 percent. The Bureau said that it will update the cost  estimates of both these operations once additional information becomes  available.
A reliable cost estimate is critical to the success of any program because it  provides the basis for informed investment decision making, realistic  budget formulation, meaningful progress measurement, proactive course  correction when warranted, and accountability for results.
section_title: Concluding Observations
paragraphs: Mr. Chairman, with a week remaining until Census Day, the Bureau’s  readiness for the headcount is mixed. On the one hand, with data  collection already under way, the ability of key IT systems to function  under full operational loads has not yet been demonstrated. The issues  facing these systems need to be resolved, and with little time remaining,  additional testing must take place. Likewise, questions remain regarding  the ultimate cost of the 2010 Census, as the Bureau continues to analyze  the cost of NRFU-related operations.
On the other hand, certain operations, such as the communications  campaign and efforts to enumerate group quarters, generally appear to be  on track and more robust compared to similar efforts for the 2000 Census,  better positioning the Bureau for a complete and accurate headcount. In  the coming weeks and months, we will continue to monitor the Bureau’s  progress in addressing these issues, as well as the implementation of the  census as a whole, on behalf of the subcommittee.
Mr. Chairman, this concludes my statement. I would be happy to respond  to any questions that you or other members of the subcommittee may have  at this time.
section_title: Contacts and Acknowledgments
paragraphs: If you have any questions on matters discussed in this statement, please  contact Robert Goldenkoff at (202) 512-2757 or goldenkoffr@gao.gov.  Contact points for our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public  Affairs may be found on the last page of this testimony. Key contributors  to this testimony include Peter Beck, David Bobruff, Clayton Brisson,  Benjamin Crawford, Dewi Djunaidy, Vijay D’Souza, Elizabeth Fan, Ronald  Fecso, Richard Hung, Kirsten Lauber, Andrea Levine, Signora May, Lisa  Pearson, David Powner, Stacy Spence, Jonathan Ticehurst, Cheri Truett,  and Timothy Wexler.
section_title: Related GAO Products
paragraphs: 2010 Census: Operational Changes Made for 2010 Position the U.S.  Census Bureau to More Accurately Classify and Identify Group  Quarters. GAO-10-452T. Washington, D.C.: February 22, 2010.  2010 Census: Census Bureau Has Made Progress on Schedule and  Operational Control Tools, but Needs to Prioritize Remaining System  Requirements. GAO-10-59. Washington, D.C.: November 13, 2009.  2010 Census: Efforts to Build an Accurate Address List Are Making  Progress, but Face Software and Other Challenges. GAO-10-140T.  Washington, D.C.: October 21, 2009.  2010 Census: Census Bureau Continues to Make Progress in Mitigating  Risks to a Successful Enumeration, but Still Faces Various Challenges.  GAO-10-132T. Washington, D.C.: October 7, 2009.  2010 Census: Communications Campaign Has Potential to Boost  Participation. GAO-09-525T. Washington, D.C.: March 23, 2009.  2010 Census: Fundamental Building Blocks of a Successful  Enumeration Face Challenges. GAO-09-430T. Washington, D.C.: March 5,  2009.
Information Technology: Census Bureau Testing of 2010 Decennial  Systems Can Be Strengthened. GAO-09-262. Washington, D.C.: March 5,  2009.  2010 Census: The Bureau’s Plans for Reducing the Undercount Show  Promise, but Key Uncertainties Remain. GAO-08-1167T. Washington,  D.C.: September 23, 2008.  2010 Census: Census Bureau’s Decision to Continue with Handheld  Computers for Address Canvassing Makes Planning and Testing  Critical. GAO-08-936. Washington, D.C.: July 31, 2008.  2010 Census: Census Bureau Should Take Action to Improve the  Credibility and Accuracy of Its Cost Estimate for the Decennial Census.  GAO-08-554. Washington, D.C.: June 16, 2008.  2010 Census: Census at Critical Juncture for Implementing Risk  Reduction Strategies. GAO-08-659T. Washington, D.C.: April 9, 2008.
Information Technology: Census Bureau Needs to Improve Its Risk  Management of Decennial Systems. GAO-08-79. Washington, D.C.:  October 5, 2007.  2010 Census: Basic Design Has Potential, but Remaining Challenges  Need Prompt Resolution. GAO-05-9. Washington, D.C.: January 12, 2005.
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