Environmental Satellites: Strategy Needed to Sustain Critical Climate and Space Weather Measurements
Published: 2010-04-27T00:00:00

Fast Facts:

Highlights:
section_title: Why GAO Did This Study
paragraphs: Environmental satellites provide data on the earth and its space environment that are used for forecasting the weather, measuring variations in climate over time, and predicting space weather. In planning for the next generation of these satellites, federal agencies originally sought to fulfill weather, climate, and space weather requirements. However, in 2006, federal agencies restructured two key satellite acquisitions, the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R). This involved removing key climate and space weather instruments. GAO was asked to (1) assess plans for restoring the capabilities that were removed from the two key satellite acquisitions, (2) evaluate federal efforts to establish a strategy for the long-term provision of satellite-provided climate data, and (3) evaluate federal efforts to establish a strategy for the longterm provision of satellite-provided space weather data. To do so, GAO analyzed agency plans and reports.
section_title: What GAO Found
paragraphs: After key climate and space weather instruments were removed from the NPOESS and GOES-R programs in 2006, federal agencies decided to restore selected capabilities in the near term. However, neither the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) nor the Department of Defense (DOD) has established plans to restore the full set of NPOESS capabilities over the life of the program. Further, NOAA has not made any plans to restore the advanced climate capabilities of the instrument that was removed from GOES-R. Expected gaps in coverage for the instruments that were removed range from 1 to 11 years, and begin as soon as 2015. Until these capabilities are in place, the agencies will not be able to provide key environmental data that are important for sustaining climate and space weather measurements. For over a decade, federal agencies and the climate community have clamored for a national interagency strategy to coordinate agency priorities, budgets, and schedules for environmental satellite observations over the long-term-- and the governance structure to implement that strategy. In mid-2009, a White House-sponsored interagency working group drafted a report that identifies and prioritizes near-term opportunities for environmental observations; however, the plan has not been approved by key entities within the Executive Office of the President and there is no schedule for finalizing it. In addition, the report does not address costs, schedules, or the long-term provision of satellite data, and there is no process or time frame for implementing it. Without a strategy for continuing environmental measurements over the coming decades and a means for implementing it, agencies will continue to independently pursue their immediate priorities on an ad hoc basis, the economic benefits of a coordinated approach to investments in earth observation may be lost, and our nation's ability to understand climate change may be limited. While federal agencies have taken steps to plan for continued space weather observations in the near-term, they lack a strategy for the long-term provision of space weather data. NOAA and DOD plan to replace aging satellites, and an interagency space weather program drafted two reports on how to mitigate the loss of key satellites and instruments. These reports were submitted to the Executive Office of the President's Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) in the fall of 2009. However, OSTP has no schedule for approving or releasing the reports. Until OSTP approves and releases the reports, it will not be clear whether the reports provide a strategy to ensure the long-term provision of space weather data--or whether the current efforts are simply attempts to ensure short-term data continuity. Without a comprehensive longterm strategy for the provision of space weather data, agencies may make ad hoc decisions to ensure continuity in the near term and risk making inefficient investment decisions.

section_title: Letter
paragraphs: Environment-observing satellites provide data that are used for weather  forecasting, as well as climate monitoring, prediction, and research.  Current satellites provide measurements of the earth’s atmosphere,  oceans, land, and space environment. For example, satellites provide data  on precipitation, cloud cover, sea surface temperatures, land vegetation,  snow cover, and solar flares. These data are used to provide warnings of  severe storms and hurricanes, and to monitor and predict seasonal,  annual, and decade-long changes in the earth’s temperature and ozone  coverage. They are also used to observe and forecast space weather,  which is when solar activities such as solar flares and solar winds are  expected to affect space and earth assets (including satellites, airplanes  flying at high altitudes, and the electric power grid).
In planning for the next generation of environmental satellites to help  observe and predict weather and climate, federal agencies originally  established plans for polar and geostationary satellites that would meet a  wide variety of missions. Specifically, the National Polar-orbiting  Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program— managed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration  (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and  the Department of Defense (DOD)—was originally envisioned to fulfill  requirements for global observations of weather, space weather, and  climate. In addition, NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental  Satellite-R series (GOES-R) program was originally envisioned to fulfill  requirements for continuous observations of weather, climate, and space  weather for the continental United States and adjacent oceans. However,  both of these programs were restructured due to growing costs. These  restructuring efforts involved removing selected climate and space  weather instruments and reducing the capabilities of other instruments. As  a result, the United States’ ability to sustain important climate and space  weather measurements over the long term was put at risk.
This report responds to your request that we (1) assess plans for restoring  the capabilities that were removed from the NPOESS and GOES-R  satellites, (2) evaluate the adequacy of federal efforts to establish a  strategy for the long-term provision of satellite-provided climate data, and  (3) evaluate the adequacy of federal efforts to establish a strategy for the  long-term provision of satellite-provided space weather data. To assess  plans for restoring the capabilities that were removed from the NPOESS  and GOES-R programs, we compared the original program plans for  sensors and products with current plans for these and other satellite  programs and identified gaps over time. To evaluate the adequacy of  federal efforts to establish a strategy for the long-term provision of  satellite-provided climate data, we compared plans for the provision of  climate data with leading practices and past recommendations for the  development of a long-term strategy, and we identified the shortfalls of  and challenges to those plans. To evaluate the adequacy of federal efforts  to establish a strategy for the long-term provision of satellite-provided  space weather data, we compared plans for the provision of space weather  data with leading practices for the development of a long-term strategy,  and we identified the shortfalls of and challenges to those plans. We also  visited key weather, space weather, and climate facilities to obtain  information related to federal strategic planning efforts for space-based  observations and interviewed relevant agency officials. In addition, this  report builds on work we have done on environmental satellites and  climate change over the last several years.
We conducted this performance audit from June 2009 to April 2010, in  accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards. Those  standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain sufficient,  appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our findings and  conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe that the evidence  obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions  based on our audit objectives. Additional details on our objectives, scope,  and methodology are provided in appendix I.
subsections: section_title: Background
paragraphs: Since the 1960s, the United States has used satellites to observe the earth  and its land, oceans, atmosphere, and space environments. Satellites  provide a global perspective of the environment and allow observations in  areas that may be otherwise unreachable or unsuitable for measurements.  Used in combination with ground, sea, and airborne observing systems,  satellites have become an indispensable part of measuring and forecasting  weather and climate. For example, satellites provide the graphical images  used to identify current weather patterns, as well as the data that go into  numerical weather prediction models. These models are used to forecast  weather 1 to 2 weeks in advance and to issue warnings about severe  weather, including the path and intensity of hurricanes. Satellite data are  also used to warn infrastructure owners when increased solar activity is  expected to affect key assets, including communication satellites or the  electric power grid. When collected over time, satellite data can also be  used to observe trends and changes in the earth’s climate. For example,  these data are used to monitor and project seasonal, annual, and decadal  changes in the earth’s temperature, vegetation coverage, and ozone  coverage.
subsections: section_title: Current Environmental Satellite Programs Include Both Operational and Research Satellites
paragraphs: Environmental satellite programs generally fall into two categories:  operational satellites and research and development satellites. Operational  environmental satellites contribute to weather and climate predictions on  a regular basis, and federal agencies sustain them by launching new  satellites as older ones reach the end of their useful lives. Alternatively,  research and development satellites are designed to test new technologies  or to provide insights into environmental science. While there is not a  commitment to sustain the capabilities demonstrated on research and  development satellites on subsequent missions, these capabilities can be  included on operational satellites if they demonstrate the usefulness of a  new measurement or the maturity of new technology. Currently, the  United States operates a fleet of operational environmental satellites, as  well as multiple research and development satellites.
subsections: section_title: Operational Environmental Satellites
paragraphs: Operational environmental satellites conduct earth observations from  space in either a low-earth polar orbit or a geostationary earth orbit. Polar- orbiting satellites circle the earth in an almost north-south orbit within  1,250 miles of the earth, providing global coverage of conditions that affect  weather and climate. Each satellite makes about 14 orbits a day. As the  earth rotates beneath it, each satellite views the entire earth’s surface  twice a day. In contrast, geostationary satellites maintain a fixed position  relative to the earth from an orbit of about 22,300 miles in space. Figure 1  describes key characteristics of polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites.
The United States currently operates two operational polar-orbiting  meteorological satellite systems: the Polar Operational Environmental  Satellites (POES) series, which is managed by NOAA, and the Defense  Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), which is managed by the Air  Force. The POES and DMSP programs provide data that are processed to  provide graphical weather images and specialized weather products. They  also provide the predominant input into numerical weather prediction  models, a primary tool for forecasting weather. These satellites also  provide data used to monitor environmental phenomena, such as ozone  depletion, drought conditions, and energetic particle activity in the near- earth space environment, as well as data sets that are used by researchers  to monitor climate change.
Currently, one POES and two DMSP satellites are positioned so that they  can observe the earth in early morning, midmorning, and early afternoon  polar orbits. In addition, a European satellite, called the Meteorological  Operational (MetOp) satellite, provides observations in the midmorning  orbit. Together, they ensure that, for any region of the earth, the data  provided to users are generally no more than 6 hours old. Figure 2  illustrates the current operational polar satellite configuration.
NOAA, NASA, and DOD are currently developing the next generation of  operational polar-orbiting environmental satellites, called NPOESS. This  program was planned to converge the POES and DMSP satellite programs  into a single program capable of satisfying both civilian and military  requirements for earth and space weather, as well as climate monitoring.  As currently defined, NPOESS consists of a series of four satellites, as well  as a demonstration satellite called the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP).  NPP is intended to reduce the risk associated with launching new sensor  technologies and to ensure continuity of climate data. The agencies plan to  launch NPP in 2011, with the other satellites following at regular intervals  to ensure satellite coverage in two orbits through 2026. Due to poor  program performance and interagency conflicts over system requirements,  the NPOESS program is currently being restructured to allow separate  acquisitions by NOAA and DOD. However, it is not yet clear how or when  this transition will take place.
In addition to the polar satellite program, NOAA also manages an  operational geostationary satellite program, called the Geostationary  Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) program. NOAA operates  GOES as a two-satellite system that is primarily focused on the United  States (see fig. 3). These satellites are uniquely positioned to provide  broad, continuously updated coverage of atmospheric and surface  conditions on the earth, as well as the space environment surrounding the  earth. For example, geostationary satellites observe the development of  hazardous weather events, such as hurricanes and severe thunderstorms,  and track their movement and intensity to help reduce or avoid major  losses of property and life. In addition, the geostationary satellites track  space weather variables such as solar X-ray fluctuations and high-energy  particles that are used in identifying emerging solar storms.
NOAA is currently developing the next generation geostationary series,  called GOES-R. GOES-R is expected to provide satellite data products to  users more quickly and to provide better clarity and precision than prior  geostationary satellites. It is expected to be a two-satellite system,  launching in 2015 and 2017, and is considered critical to the United States’  ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting  through 2028.
section_title: Research Satellites
paragraphs: In addition to operational polar and geostationary satellites, the United  States operates research satellites to better understand scientific earth  processes and to develop new technologies. Since the early 1990s, NASA  has launched 18 research satellites under its Earth Observing System, and  plans to launch 6 more by 2013. These satellites continue to provide  global and seasonal earth system measurements, which have provided a  better understanding of human impacts on the earth, as well as improved  disaster prediction and mitigation technologies. They are used both by  NASA’s research communities and by other agencies, including the U.S.  Department of Agriculture, for operational and decision-making purposes.  NASA is now planning the next generation of research satellites, called its  Earth Systematic Missions program. This program consists of three series  of satellites to advance understanding of the climate system and climate  change. In addition to its earth observation activities, NASA has been  working to understand and measure solar activity in the space  environment. For example, the observations of solar winds from its  Advanced Composition Explorer mission and solar X-ray images from its  Solar and Heliospheric Observatory mission are used for both solar  research and space weather forecasting.
DOD also develops environmental research satellites in support of its  mission when a need is identified. For example, the Navy and others  developed the WindSat program to demonstrate new capabilities for  measuring the ocean surface wind vectors from space and to demonstrate  an instrument that was originally planned for the NPOESS mission. In  addition, DOD’s Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System  satellite is expected to develop a capability for detecting and forecasting  space weather events that lead to disruptions in communication signals in  high-frequency radios and Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites.
section_title: Environmental Satellite Data and Products
paragraphs: Environmental satellites gather a broad range of data that are transformed  into a variety of products. Satellite sensors observe different bands of  radiation wavelengths, called channels, which are used for remotely  determining information about the earth’s environment. When first  received, satellite data are considered raw data. To make them usable,  NOAA, NASA, and DOD operate data processing centers that format the  data so that they are time-sequenced and include earth location and  calibration information. After formatting, these data are called raw data  records. The data centers further process the raw data records into  channel-specific data sets, called sensor data records and temperature  data records. These data records are then used to derive weather and  climate products called environmental data records and climate data  records.
Environmental data records generally support near-term weather  observations and include a wide range of atmospheric products detailing  cloud coverage, temperature, humidity, and ozone distribution; land  surface products showing snow cover, vegetation, and land use; ocean  products depicting sea surface temperatures, sea ice, and wave height; and  characterizations of the space environment. Combinations of these data  records (raw, sensor, temperature, and environmental data records) are  also used to derive more sophisticated products, including the forecasts  that result from weather prediction modeling. In contrast, climate data  records identify longer term variations in the climate and include  observations of the land, ocean, and atmosphere.
While environmental and climate data products use much of the same  data, the two user communities’ needs differ. In order to deliver timely  weather forecasts and warnings, meteorologists require the rapid delivery  of environmental data. Alternatively, scientists involved in climate  monitoring, prediction, and research require accurate, precise, and  consistent data over long periods of time. Figure 4 is a simplified depiction  of the various stages of environmental satellite data processing, and figure  5 depicts examples of two different weather products. Figure 6 depicts an  example of a climate data record.
section_title: An Overview of Climate Products and Uses
paragraphs: One subset of satellite-provided environmental weather information is  climate data. Satellite-provided climate data are used in combination with  ground and ocean observing systems to understand seasonal, annual, and  decadal variations in the climate. Satellites provide land observations such  as measurements of soil moisture, changes in how land is used, and  vegetation growth; ocean observations such as sea levels, sea surface  temperature, and ocean color; and atmospheric observations such as  greenhouse gas levels (e.g., carbon dioxide), aerosol and dust particles,  and moisture concentration. When these data are obtained over long  periods of time, scientists are able to use them to determine short- and  long-term trends in how the earth’s systems work and how they work  together. For example, climate measurements have allowed scientists to  better understand the effect of deforestation on how the earth absorbs  heat, retains rainwater, and absorbs greenhouse gases. Scientists also use  climate data to help predict climate cycles that affect the weather, such as  El Niño, and to develop global estimates of food crop production for a  particular year or season. Table 1 provides examples of ways in which  satellite-provided climate products are used.
section_title: An Overview of Space Weather Products and Uses
paragraphs: Another subset of satellite-provided environmental weather information is  space weather. Satellite-provided observations of space weather generally  describe changes in solar activity in the space environment. Just as  scientists use observations of weather that occurs on the earth’s surface  and in its atmosphere to develop forecasts, scientists and researchers use  space weather observations to detect and forecast solar storms that may  be potentially harmful to society. Examples of space weather observations  include bursts of solar energy called solar flares, solar winds, geomagnetic  activity associated with solar storms, solar X-ray images and fluctuations,  and solar ultraviolet images and fluctuations. These activities can  adversely impact space assets (such as communication, GPS, and  environmental satellites), airplanes flying at high altitudes or over the  poles, ground assets (such as the electric energy grid), and the  communications infrastructure (including high-frequency radio  communications and transmissions between GPS satellites and ground- based receivers). Figure 7 provides an illustration of the key assets that  are affected by solar weather and the solar weather activities that could  put these assets at risk, while table 2 provides examples of ways in which  space weather products and services are used.
section_title: Federal Responsibilities for Environmental Satellites, Satellite Data Processing, and Climate and Space Weather Products
paragraphs: Three key federal agencies—NOAA, NASA, and DOD—are responsible for  managing environmental satellite programs, processing the collected  environmental data into usable climate and space weather products and  services, and disseminating the data and products to others. Many other  agencies use these data and products to support their missions. For  example, the Department of Agriculture uses temperature, precipitation,  and soil moisture data and products to inform farmers on what to plant,  when to plant, and strategies to employ during the growing season, while  the Department of Energy uses space weather information to help  determine when the electrical grid could be damaged by solar events.  These agencies also participate in one or more federal working groups that  coordinate the agencies’ needs for and uses of environmental satellite  products. These interagency working groups are overseen by offices  within the Executive Office of the President.
subsections: section_title: Climate Responsibilities
paragraphs: NOAA, DOD, and NASA manage multiple organizations with a diverse set  of climate responsibilities. Specifically, NOAA has several organizations  with responsibilities for developing and using satellite data to monitor and  predict the earth’s climate. These include the following:    The National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service  manages the development of environmental satellite products. It also has  three data centers that archive environmental data and products related to  climate, oceans, and geophysical features and disseminate these data and  products to the public.
The National Weather Service is responsible for weather, hydrologic, and  climate forecasts and advisories for the United States, its territories, and  adjacent waters and ocean areas for the protection of life and property  and the enhancement of the national economy. Through its National  Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Climate Prediction Center, it  disseminates products and services that describe the earth’s climate and  provides near-term climate predictions.
The Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research has climate  responsibilities focusing on understanding causes of global climate change  and on improving operational climate forecasting capabilities through its  Earth System Research Laboratory and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics  Laboratory.
Organizations within DOD also have responsibilities for providing climate  forecasts that are specifically tailored for military planning and operations.  For example, the Air Force Weather Agency is responsible for providing  environmental outlooks to support the Air Force and Army, including  forecasts of the properties of clouds (such as density or ice content) and  ground conditions to support planning for airborne and ground operations.  In addition, the Navy’s Naval Oceanographic Office tracks ocean currents  for planning ship tracking and missions, and provides outlooks of the  acoustical environment for submarines. The Navy’s Fleet Numerical  Meteorology and Oceanography Command provides environmental  outlooks in support of naval operations, including outlooks on coastal and  open ocean conditions.
NASA’s Earth Science Division is responsible for advancing the  understanding of the earth system and demonstrating new satellite  technologies through its environmental research and development  satellites. NASA currently demonstrates new measurements and  technologies for measuring climate through various satellite and airborne  missions, including the Earth Observing System.
In addition to NOAA, DOD, and NASA, the Department of the Interior’s  U.S. Geological Survey is responsible for operating the Landsat satellites,  distributing the data, and maintaining an archive of Landsat 7 and other  remotely sensed data.
Other agencies use climate products in their operations. For example, the  Environmental Protection Agency uses sea level data and products to  examine the potential societal impacts, adaptation options, and other  decisions sensitive to sea level rise in coastal communities, while the  Department of Homeland Security’s Federal Emergency Management  Agency uses climate research and predictions to help develop disaster  preparedness and response plans. Additional processing and product  development is done in partnership with universities, nongovernmental  organizations, and industry. See appendix II for more information on  federal agencies and their climate-related responsibilities.
section_title: Space Weather Responsibilities
paragraphs: NOAA, DOD, and NASA also manage organizations with responsibilities  for space weather satellites and prediction. NOAA and DOD both obtain  satellite and land-based measurements of solar activity and produce  operational space weather products for a variety of users. Specifically,  NOAA’s National Weather Service manages the Space Weather Prediction  Center, which is responsible for continuously monitoring space weather  for civilian user communities, and provides official space weather  warnings, watches, and alerts. In addition, NOAA’s National  Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service has a data center  that archives environmental data related to space weather and  disseminates them to the public.
Complementing NOAA’s responsibilities for civilian space weather  forecasts, DOD’s Air Force Weather Agency is responsible for  continuously monitoring space weather for defense and intelligence user  communities. The Air Force Weather Agency and NOAA products are  similar, and the majority of the space weather data they use are the same.  However, the Air Force customizes specialized products to provide space  situational awareness for its users. Both the Air Force and NOAA work  together to ensure that both the civilian and military sectors understand  and can respond to changes in the space environment.
NASA conducts space weather research and development activities using  environmental satellites. For instance, NASA observes solar wind data  from its Advanced Composition Explorer mission and solar X-ray images  from its Solar and Heliospheric Observatory mission to better understand  the sun and its effects on the earth and solar system. Data from these  satellites are used for solar research and are also used by other agencies  for operational space weather forecasting, including watches and  warnings.
Other federal agencies use space weather products to support their  respective missions. For example, the Department of Transportation’s  Federal Aviation Administration examines radiation exposure at high  altitudes, while the Department of Energy uses observations from space  weather satellites to study possible impacts on electrical energy  transmission through the energy grid. See appendix II for more  information on federal agencies and their space-weather-related  responsibilities.
section_title: Interagency Coordination of Satellite-Provided Environmental Observations
paragraphs: In addition to agencies with responsibilities for acquiring, processing and  disseminating environmental data and information, there are two  organizations—the U.S. Group on Earth Observations (USGEO) and the  U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)—that are primarily  responsible for coordinating federal efforts with respect to observations of  the earth’s environment. The National Space Weather Program serves as  the coordinating body for space weather.
USGEO is made up of representatives from federal agencies with a role in  earth observations, as well as liaisons from the Executive Office of the  President. The group’s responsibilities include developing and  coordinating an ongoing process for planning, developing, and managing  an integrated U.S. earth-observing system consisting of ground, airborne,  and satellite measurements. USGEO reports to the National Science and  Technology Council’s Committee on Environment and Natural Resources.
USGCRP consists of representatives from 13 federal departments and  agencies, as well as liaisons from the Executive Office of the President and  USGEO. Congress established USGCRP in 1990 to coordinate and  integrate federal research on changes in the global environment and to  discuss its implications for society. USGCRP reports to the National  Science and Technology Council’s Committee on Environment and  Natural Resources.
The National Space Weather Program is responsible for coordinating  federal efforts and leveraging resources with respect to space weather  observation. The program consists of representatives from eight federal  agencies, who coordinate their activities through NOAA’s Office of the  Federal Coordinator for Meteorology.
Appendix III identifies the federal organizations that participate in these  interagency coordination groups.
section_title: Executive Oversight of Federal Environmental Observations
paragraphs: The Executive Office of the President provides oversight for federal space- based environmental observation. Within the Executive Office of the  President, the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), the Office  of Management and Budget (OMB), and the Council on Environmental  Quality carry out these governance responsibilities. In addition, the  National Science and Technology Council and its Committee on  Environment and Natural Resources provide the Executive Office of the  President with executive-level coordination and advice. Table 3 identifies  roles and responsibilities of organizations within the Executive Office of  the President that provide oversight of federal environmental observation  efforts.
section_title: Prior GAO Reports Recommended Developing Plans to Restore Cancelled Instruments
paragraphs: In recent years, we have issued a series of reports on the NPOESS and  GOES-R satellite programs. Both programs are critical to United States’  ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting  and global climate monitoring through the years 2026 and 2028,  respectively. However, both of these programs were restructured due to  their complexity and growing costs. These restructuring efforts involved  removing selected climate and space weather instruments. Specifically, on  the NPOESS program, four instruments were removed and four had their  capabilities reduced. On the GOES-R program, NOAA removed an  advanced instrument that was important to the weather and climate  community. In May 2008, we recommended that the agencies develop a  long-term strategy for restoring the NPOESS sensors in order to guide  short-term decision making and to avoid an ad hoc approach to restoring  capabilities. In addition, in April 2009, we recommended that NOAA  develop a plan for restoring the advanced GOES-R capabilities that were  removed from the program, if feasible and justified.
section_title: Federal Agencies Have Not Established Plans to Restore All Capabilities Removed from the NPOESS and GOES-R Programs
paragraphs: Federal agencies have not yet established plans to restore all of the  capabilities removed from the NPOESS and GOES-R programs. As  originally planned, the NPOESS and GOES-R programs included  instruments and products to meet a wide range of user needs through 2026  and 2028, respectively. Specifically, both NPOESS and GOES-R were  envisioned to fulfill requirements for weather, space weather, and climate  monitoring. However, in 2006, both of these programs were restructured  due to growing costs. These restructuring efforts involved removing  selected climate and space weather instruments—and, in some cases,  replacing them with a less-capable instrument. Table 4 lists the  instruments that were removed or degraded.
Since June 2006, the agencies have taken steps to restore selected  capabilities that were removed from NPOESS in the near-term; however,  they do not yet have plans to restore capabilities for the full length of time  covered by the NPOESS program. Specifically, the agencies decided to  restore the capabilities of three NPOESS instruments through 2016 or  2021, the capabilities of a fourth instrument through 2018 for NOAA and  through 2025 for the Navy, and to accept degraded capabilities in replacing  a fifth instrument between 2019 and 2024. The agencies have not yet  made any plans to restore the capabilities of a sixth NPOESS instrument,  and NOAA has not yet made plans to restore the capabilities of the   GOES-R instrument. This leaves gaps in promised capabilities ranging  from 1 to 11 years, depending on the instrument. Figure 8 provides a visual  summary of plans and gaps in plans for key instruments through 2026.
Both DOD and NOAA officials reiterated their commitment to look for  opportunities to restore the capabilities that were removed from NPOESS  and GOES-R. However, agency officials acknowledge that they do not  have plans to restore the full set of capabilities because of the complexity  and cost of developing new satellite programs.
Until the capabilities that were removed from NPOESS and GOES-R are  restored, there will be future gaps in key atmospheric measurements,  including aerosols and key cloud properties. There will also be future gaps  in oceanic measurements, including sea surface height and wave height.  These gaps will reduce the accuracy of key climate and space weather  products—and could lead to interruptions in the continuity of data needed  for accurate climate observations over time. Meteorologists,  oceanographers, and climatologists reported that these gaps will seriously  impact ongoing and planned earth monitoring activities.
section_title: Federal Efforts to Ensure the Long-term Provision of Satellite Climate Data Are Insufficient
paragraphs: For over a decade, the climate community has clamored for an interagency  strategy to coordinate agency priorities, budgets, and schedules for  environmental satellites over the long term—and the governance structure  to implement that strategy. Specifically, in 1999, the National Research  Council reported on the need for a comprehensive long-term earth  observation strategy and, in 2000, for an effective governance structure  that would balance interagency issues and provide authority and  accountability for implementing the strategy. The National Research  Council has repeated these concerns in multiple reports since then.  Similarly, in 1999, the Administrators of NOAA and NASA wrote letters to  the White House’s OSTP noting the need for an interagency strategy and  the means to implement it. They called for OSTP to work with OMB to  better define agency roles and responsibilities and to align a satellite  strategy with agency budgets. More recently, in 2008, a strategic policy  research center recommended that the United States develop an overall  plan for an integrated, comprehensive, and sustained earth observation  system and the governance structure to support it.
While progress has been made in developing near-term interagency plans,  this initiative is languishing without a firm completion date, and federal  efforts to establish and implement a strategy for the long-term provision of  satellite data are insufficient. Specifically, in 2005, the National Science  and Technology Council’s Committee on Environment and Natural  Resources established USGEO to develop an earth observation strategy  and coordinate its implementation. Since that time, USGEO assessed  current and evolving requirements, evaluated them to determine  investment priorities, and drafted the Strategic Assessment Report—a  report delineating near-term opportunities and priorities for earth  observation from both space and ground. According to agency officials,  this report is the first in a planned series, and it was approved by OSTP  and multiple federal agencies in May 2009. However, OSTP has not yet  forwarded the draft to the Committee on Environment and Natural  Resources and the President’s National Science and Technology Council  because it is reconsidering whether to revise or move forward with the  plan. USGEO officials could not provide a schedule for completing this  near-term interagency plan.
This draft report is an important first step in developing a national strategy  for earth observations, but it is not sufficient to ensure the long-term  provision of data vital to understanding the climate. The draft report  integrates different agencies’ requirements and proposes continuing or  improving earth observations in 17 separate areas, using both satellite and  land-based measuring systems. However, the report does not include  costs, schedules, or plans for the long-term provision of satellite data. For  example, it does not fully address the capabilities that were removed from  the NPOESS and GOES-R missions. While the report notes the importance  of continuing current plans to fly the Total Solar Irradiance Sensor on the  NPP satellite and the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System  sensor on the NPP and first NPOESS satellites, it does not make  recommendations for what to do over the long term.
In addition, the federal government lacks a clear process for implementing  an interagency strategy. Key offices within the Executive Office of the  President with responsibilities for environmental observations, including  OSTP and the Council for Environmental Quality, have not established  processes or time frames for implementing an interagency strategy— including steps for working with OMB to ensure that agencies’ annual  budgets are aligned with the interagency strategy. As a result, even if an  interagency strategy was finalized, it is not clear how OSTP and OMB  would ensure that the responsibilities identified in the interagency strategy  are consistent with agency plans and are funded within agency budgets.
Agency officials cite multiple reasons for the difficulties they have  encountered over the last decade in establishing a national interagency  plan for long-term earth observations. One issue involves conflicting  priorities between and among agencies, including disconnects between the  research and operational communities and between the weather and  climate communities. Another issue is the lack of agreement on how and  when to transition research capabilities to operational satellites—and how  to fund them.
Without a long-term interagency strategy for satellite observations, and a  means for implementing it, agencies face gaps in satellite data and risk  making ad hoc decisions on individual satellites. For example, until  recently, NASA’s QuikScat research satellite provided measurements of  the effect of wind on ocean surfaces, which were used by the National  Weather Service to improve tropical and midlatitude storm warnings and  by the National/Naval Ice Center to improve its understanding of Arctic  and Antarctic ice environments. However, NOAA does not plan to  replace the satellite until at least 2014. This extended gap leaves the  organizations that used QuikScat with degraded measurements. As  another example, Landsat satellites have provided data on land cover  change, vegetation mapping, and wildfire effects for over 35 years.  Currently, there are two Landsat satellites in operation, and both are long past their expected life spans. While there is a plan to develop and la the Landsat Data Continuity Mission by June 2013, there is no comm to ensure continuity after that mission. satellite program, there will be a significant gap in land cover images an other important global climate data ranging from water manageme nt to  agriculture.
Without Landsat or a similar Until an interagency strategy for earth observation is established, and a  clear process for implementing it is in place, federal agencies will continue  to procure their immediate priorities on an ad hoc basis, the economic  benefits of a coordinated approach to investments in earth observation  may be lost, and the continuity of key measurements may be lost. This will  hinder our nation’s ability to understand long-term climate changes.
section_title: Federal Agencies Lack a Strategy for the Long-term Provision of Space Weather Data
paragraphs: While key federal agencies have taken steps to plan for continued space  weather observations in the near term, they lack a strategy for the long- term provision of space weather data. Similar to maintaining satellite- provided climate observations, maintaining space weather observations  over the long term is important. The National Space Weather Program, the  interagency coordinating body for the United States space weather  community, has repeatedly recommended taking action to sustain the  space weather observation infrastructure on a long-term basis.
In August 2007, a White House working group called the Future of Land Imaging  Interagency Working Group issued A Plan for a U.S. National Land Imaging Program.  This report recommended that the Department of the Interior manage future Landsat  programs and have NASA develop future satellites. However, this plan has not yet been  implemented. experimental space-observing satellites. In addition, at OSTP’s request,  the National Space Weather Program reported in 2008 on the impacts for  both operations and research of not having NASA’s aging Advanced  Composition Explorer or the planned space weather capabilities from the  NPOESS program. It subsequently developed, again at the request of  OSTP, two reports documenting specific recommendations for the future  of space weather, one on what to do about the Advanced Composition  Explorer and the other on the replacement of the space weather  capabilities removed from the NPOESS program. The program submitted  the reports in October and November of 2009, respectively. However,  OSTP officials do not have a schedule for approving or releasing the  reports.
While the agencies’ short-term actions and the pending reports hold  promise, federal agencies do not currently have a comprehensive  interagency strategy for the long-term provision of space weather data.  Until OSTP releases the reports, it will not be clear whether they provide a  clear strategy to ensure the long-term provision of space weather data—or  whether the current efforts are simply ad hoc attempts to ensure short- term data continuity. Without a comprehensive long-term strategy for the  provision of space weather data, agencies may make ad hoc decisions to  ensure continuity in the near term and risk making inefficient decisions on  key investments.
section_title: Conclusions
paragraphs: Almost 4 years after key climate and space weather instruments were  removed from the NPOESS and GOES-R satellite programs, there are still  significant gaps in future satellite coverage. While individual agencies have  taken steps to restore selected capabilities in the near term, gaps in  coverage ranging from 1 to 11 years are expected beginning as soon as  2015. The gaps in satellite coverage are expected to affect the continuity of  important climate and space weather measurements, such as our  understanding of how weather cycles impact global food production, and  when radio and GPS satellite communications are likely to be affected by  space weather.
Looking more broadly, despite repeated calls for interagency strategies for  the long-term provision of environmental data (both for climate and space  weather purposes), our nation still lacks such plans. Efforts to develop  even short-term strategies have languished in committees and offices  supporting the Executive Office of the President, and there is no schedule  for them to be approved or released. Further, even if an interagency  strategy for the long-term provision of environmental observations was  established, there are not clear processes in place to implement it or align  it with individual agencies’ plans and annual budgets. Specifically, key  organizations within the Executive Office of the President, including the  Office of Science and Technology Policy, the Office of Management and  Budget, and the Council on Environmental Quality, lack a coordinated  process for ensuring that individual agencies align their plans and budgets  to the greater good identified in an interagency plan.
Until the Executive Office of the President establishes comprehensive  interagency strategies and internal processes that foster the  implementation of these strategies, individual agencies will continue to  address their most pressing priorities as they arise and opportunities to  effectively and efficiently plan ahead will be lost.
section_title: Recommendations for Executive Action
paragraphs: In order to effectively address our country’s need for sustained  environmental observations, we recommend that the Assistant to the  President for Science and Technology, in collaboration with key Executive  Office of the President entities (including the Office of Science and  Technology Policy, the Office of Management and Budget, the Council on  Environmental Quality, and the National Science and Technology  Council), take the following four actions:    Establish a firm deadline for the completion and release of three key  reports on environmental observations:    USGEO’s report on near-term priorities and opportunities in earth  observations, called the Strategic Assessment Report;    The National Space Weather Program’s report on how to address the  loss of the Advanced Composition Explorer capabilities; and   The National Space Weather Program’s report on how to address the  space weather capabilities that were removed from the NPOESS  program.
Direct USGEO to establish an interagency strategy to address the long- term provision of environmental observations from satellites that includes  costs and schedules for the satellites, as well as a plan for the relevant  agencies’ future budgets.
Establish an ongoing process, with timelines, for obtaining approval of the  interagency strategy and aligning it with agency plans and annual budgets.
Direct the National Space Weather Program Council to establish an  interagency strategy for the long-term provision of space weather  observations.
section_title: Agency Comments and Our Evaluation
paragraphs: A senior policy analyst from the Office of Science and Technology  Policy/Executive Office of the President provided comments on a draft of  this report via e-mail. In addition, we received written comments on a draft  of this report from the Secretary of Commerce, who transmitted NOAA’s  comments (see app. IV), and NASA’s Associate Administrator for its  Science Mission Directorate (see app. V). DOD officials declined to  comment on a draft of the report.
The Executive Office of the President did not agree or disagree with our  recommendations; however, officials noted that OSTP is currently revising  USGEO’s Strategic Assessment Report to update information on launch  schedules and on the availability of certain measurements that have  changed since completion of the report a year ago. Further, officials  agreed that the Strategic Assessment Report is a first step in developing a  strategy for earth observations, and noted that they plan to use the report  as a basis for meeting congressional reporting requirements directing  OSTP to develop a strategy on earth observations. In crafting this strategy,  it will be important for OSTP to address long-term interagency needs and  to work with OMB to ensure that the long-term plans are aligned with  individual agencies’ plans and budgets. If the plan does not include these  elements, individual agencies will continue to address only their most  pressing priorities, other agencies’ needs may be ignored, and the  government may lose the ability to effectively and efficiently address its  earth observation needs.
In its comments, NOAA noted that it had completed its actions relative to  delivering input to the Executive Office of the President for developing  strategies for climate and space weather observations. We agree; it is now  up to the Executive Office of the President to establish and implement an  interagency strategy for the long-term provision of these observations. The  agency also responded to our statement that it had not established plans to  restore all of the capabilities that were removed from the GOES-R and  NPOESS programs. Regarding GOES-R, NOAA stated that it will continue  to evaluate the feasibility and priority of addressing requirements and  determine the appropriate means to meet them.
Regarding NPOESS, NOAA noted that, in fiscal year 2009, the agency  restored the highest priority climate sensors that were removed from the  NPOESS program. NOAA also reported that the fiscal year 2011  President’s Budget Request includes plans to restore additional key  climate sensors on JPSS and other satellite programs. However, as  discussed in our report, NOAA’s efforts to restore sensors in 2009  addressed only selected near-term needs and did not address the full set of  capabilities over the life of the NPOESS program. Further, regarding the  fiscal year 2011 President’s Budget Request, at the time of our review the  full set of capabilities planned for the JPSS program had not yet been  determined. For example, the Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (which was  one of the high-priority sensors that was restored to the NPOESS program  in fiscal year 2009) will not be included on the JPSS satellite, but could  instead be included on another to-be-determined satellite. As noted several  times in our report, we focused on the capabilities that were planned for  the NPOESS program because plans for JPSS had not yet been finalized.  We have ongoing work to examine the JPSS program, which will further  evaluate NOAA’s plans as they are solidified. In a final comment, NOAA  stated that we did not distinguish between potential data gaps in existing  and new capabilities, and suggested that we only use the term “gap” to  describe the potential loss of an existing capability. Given that the  requirements for the NPOESS programs were developed and validated by  multiple agencies nearly a decade ago, and requirements for the GOES-R  sensor were revalidated by NOAA in 2007, we believe it is appropriate to  view the removal of these requirements as gaps—whether they represent  existing or new capabilities.
In its written comments, NASA provided further details on its efforts to  advance the understanding of earth systems and Heliophysics through  environmental research satellites, and provided clarification on plans for  future missions that are included in the fiscal year 2011 President’s Budget  Request. The agency also noted that OSTP developed a plan for the future  of the land-imaging program, under which NASA would develop future  Landsat-like satellites on behalf of the Department of the Interior.  However, this plan was established in 2007 and has not yet been funded or  implemented. It is not clear that it will be implemented. This situation  illustrates that having an approved plan is not enough to ensure that  critical satellite capabilities are obtained, and reiterates the need for an  ongoing process that aligns interagency strategies with individual  agencies’ plans and annual budgets.
OSTP, NOAA, and NASA also provided technical comments on the report,  which we incorporated as appropriate.
As agreed with your offices, unless you publicly announce the contents of  this report earlier, we plan no further distribution until 30 days from the  report date. At that time, we will send copies of this report to interested  congressional committees, the Secretary of Commerce, the Secretary of  Defense, the Administrator of NASA, the Director of the Office of Science  and Technology Policy, the Director of the Office of Management and  Budget, and other interested parties. The report also will be available on  the GAO Web site at http://www.gao.gov.
If you or your staff members have questions about this report, please  contact me at (202) 512-9286 or pownerd@gao.gov. Contact points for our  Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on the  last page of this report. GAO staff who made key contributions to this  report are listed in appendix VI.
section_title: Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology
paragraphs: Our objectives were to (1) assess plans to restore capabilities that were  originally planned for, but then removed from, the National Polar-orbiting  Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) and Geostationary  Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R) satellites; (2)  evaluate the adequacy of federal efforts to establish a strategy for the long- term provision of satellite-provided climate data; and (3) evaluate the  adequacy of federal efforts to establish a strategy for the long-term  provision of satellite-provided space weather data. To assess plans for  restoring capabilities from the NPOESS and GOES-R programs, we  compared the original program plans for sensors and products with  current plans and identified gaps over time. We also observed monthly  senior-level management review meetings, reviewed documentation from  those meetings, and interviewed agency officials to obtain information on  any changes in program plans.
To evaluate the adequacy of federal efforts to establish a strategy for the  long-term provision of satellite-provided climate data, we compared plans  developed by the Department of Defense (DOD), National Aeronautics and  Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric  Administration (NOAA), and a draft strategy developed by the Executive  Office of the President’s Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP)  and the U.S. Group on Earth Observations for the provision of climate data  with recommendations made by the National Research Council and GAO  for the development of a long-term strategy. We identified the shortfalls of  and challenges to those plans. We also visited NOAA’s National Climatic  Data Center, Climate Prediction Center, and Earth System Research  Laboratory; the Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography  Center and Naval Oceanographic Office; and the Air Force Weather  Agency to obtain information on the uses and users of satellite data for  climate monitoring and prediction, as well the need for interagency  strategic planning for space-based climate observations. We also  interviewed relevant agency officials.
To evaluate the adequacy of federal efforts to establish a strategy for the  long-term provision of satellite-provided space weather data, we compared  DOD, NASA, and NOAA plans for the provision of space weather data to  leading practices for the development of a long-term strategy, and we  identified the potential shortfalls of and challenges to those plans. We also  identified OSTP plans for space weather. We attended a space weather  events workshop to determine key issues related to long-term plans for  space weather observations. We also visited the Air Force Weather  Agency, the Space Weather Prediction Center, and NOAA’s National  Geophysical Data Center to obtain information on the uses and users of  satellite data for space weather monitoring and prediction, as well the  need for interagency strategic planning for space weather observations.  We also interviewed relevant agency officials.
We conducted our work at NOAA, NASA, DOD, and OSTP facilities in the  Washington, D.C., metropolitan area. In addition, we conducted work at  satellite data processing facilities in Asheville, North Carolina; Monterey,  California; Boulder, Colorado; Bay Saint Louis, Mississippi; and Omaha,  Nebraska. We selected these facilities because they host key military and  civilian users of satellite data for weather, climate, and space weather  forecasting. We conducted this performance audit from June 2009 to April  2010, in accordance with generally accepted government auditing  standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to  obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for  our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe  that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings  and conclusions based on our audit objectives.
section_title: Appendix II: Key Federal Organizations with Climate and Space Weather Responsibilities
paragraphs: Multiple agencies have a role in developing or using climate and space  weather products. Table 5 lists key federal organizations’ roles with  respect to climate observation, while table 6 lists key federal  organizations’ roles with respect to space weather observation.
section_title: Appendix III: Federal Organizations That Participate in Interagency Coordination Groups
paragraphs: Interagency committees coordinate the interests of the multiple federal  agencies whose missions involve environmental monitoring and research.  These include the U.S. Global Change Research Program, which  coordinates federal climate research efforts; the U.S. Group on Earth  Observations, which plans for and coordinates earth observations; and the  National Space Weather Program, which coordinates federal space  weather monitoring, research, and forecasts. Table 7 identifies federal  organizations that participate in these interagency coordination groups.
section_title: Appendix IV: Comments from the Department of Commerce
section_title: Appendix V: Comments from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
section_title: Appendix VI: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments
subsections: section_title: Staff Acknowledgments
paragraphs: In addition to the individual named above, Colleen M. Phillips, Assistant  Director; Bill Carrigg; Neil Doherty; Joshua Leiling; Kathleen S. Lovett; Lee  McCracken; and Joseph D. Thompson made key contributions to this  report.