page_title: Attack-class submarine
section_title: Speculation of a Sōryū class decision
hierarchical_section_title: Attack-class submarine / Project history / Speculation of a Sōryū class decision
caption_attribution_description: 日本語: 海上自衛隊　潜水艦うんりゅう（SS-502）。 14年9月15日　呉基地にて。
context_page_description: The Attack-class submarine is a future class of submarines for the Royal Australian Navy based on the Shortfin Barracuda proposal by French shipbuilder Naval Group to replace the Collins-class submarines. The class will enter service in the early 2030s with construction extending into the late 2040s to 2050. The Program is estimated to cost $50 billion and will be the largest, and most complex, defence acquisition project in Australian history.
  The Program to replace the Collins class began in 2007 with the commencement of the Defence Department acquisition project SEA 1000. Australia's unique operating environment and rejection of nuclear marine propulsion had previously driven it to operate in the Collins class the world's largest diesel-electric submarines, capable of transiting the long distances from HMAS Stirling to their deployment areas.
  In the early phases of the replacement project, four design options were identified: purchase a Military-Off-The-Shelf design, modify a MOTS design for Australian conditions, design an evolution of the Collins-class, or create a new design.
context_section_description: Although the German Type 214 submarine has comparable range and endurance to the Collins class, and superior range and endurance compared to the Sōryū class, throughout 2014 there was increasing speculation that a Japanese design had been pre-selected as the Collins-class replacement, leading to public criticism that the Japanese submarines did not have the range or endurance that Australia required.
  A September 2012 weapons technology swap deal and a July 2014 agreement on the sharing of defence technology were seen as preliminary steps towards Australian-Japanese collaboration on a submarine design, or towards integrating technologies like the Sōryū's Kockums designed air-independent propulsion Stirling engines and research into incorporating the Japanese boats' hydrodynamic capabilities into a potential SEA 1000 design. Advantages in such a deal between the nations include the attention that securing the SEA 1000 project would bring to Japanese arms manufacturers (particularly after loosening of defence export restrictions in 2014), the provision of a proven high-end submarine design to the Australian military, and improved relations, both directly and as mutual allies of the United States of America. However, it has been noted that co-operation on such a major defence project would be high risk due to Japan's lack of previous arms export experience, and any deal could negatively impact on both nations' relations with China. The close personal relationship between the then-Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe had also been cited as a factor in the likeliness of such a deal, although with the caveat that a change in government in either nation would compromise any potential deal for construction, or the ongoing maintenance support of the submarines: the Australian Labor Party has a greater interest in supporting local shipbuilding than Abbott's Coalition government, while a souring of China-Japan relations is something the Democratic Party of Japan is less likely to risk than the Liberal Democratic government led by Abe.
  By November 2014, initial capabilities had not been decided on, and recommendations were to be made across 2015. In December 2014, the Australian Coalition government ruled out using a tender process to identify a new submarine design, blaming the limited time left before the Collins-class were scheduled to begin leaving service. Although there was speculation at the time that the Australian government would purchase directly from Japanese shipbuilders, in January 2015, Defence Minister Kevin Andrews stated that the government was still considering the options offered by European shipbuilders: ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems of Germany, Saab of Sweden, and a partnership of the French companies Thales and DCNS.
  In mid-December 2015, the Japanese Self Defence Force allowed a journalist from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) to tour the newest of the class, Kokuryū (black dragon), at its base at Yokoska and speak to the commanding officer, Commander Takehiko Hirama, and several other personnel.
caption: The Sōryū-class submarine Unryū in 2014. The Japanese submarines had been widely speculated as the forerunner for the replacement project.
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