page_title: 2014 Vermont gubernatorial election
section_title: Analysis
hierarchical_section_title: 2014 Vermont gubernatorial election / General election / Analysis
caption_attribution_description: English: Official photo of Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT)
context_page_description: The 2014 Vermont gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Vermont, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Governor Peter Shumlin ran for reelection to a third term in office against Republican businessman Scott Milne, Libertarian businessman Dan Feliciano and several other minor party and independent candidates.
  Based on election polling, Shumlin's large financial advantage and the state's strong Democratic lean in presidential elections, Shumlin was expected to win easily, but he received only a plurality, not a majority, of the vote and polled only 2,434 votes more than Milne out of 193,087 cast. The Constitution of Vermont requires that the 180-member Vermont General Assembly choose the winner when no candidate receives over 50% of the popular vote. On January 8, 2015, the Assembly chose Shumlin over Milne by a vote of 110 to 69, with one abstention.
  The result prompted much debate and analysis among commentators and the political parties.
context_section_description: As no candidate received a majority of the vote, the Vermont General Assembly was required to decide the election, choosing among the top three vote-getters, Shumlin, Milne and Feliciano. The result came as a surprise to most observers, who had expected Shumlin to win easily. RealClearPolitics rated the race "Likely Democratic" and The Cook Political Report, Daily Kos Elections, Governing, The Rothenberg Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball all rated the race "Safe Democratic". RealClearPolitics reported an average lead in the polls of 15.2% for Shumlin and HuffPost Pollster's model estimated Shumlin would beat Milne 51.1% to 37% with the probability that Shumlin would win the election at 95%.
  Analyzing the results, The Burlington Free Press pointed to Shumlin's relatively soft numbers in opinion polls – he was in the mid-40s in the last four polls of the race – as evidence that voters were dissatisfied with the progress the state had made in instituting single-payer health care, with rising property taxes, and with the unsuccessful roll-out of Vermont Health Connect, the state's federal health care exchange. Shumlin's internal polls showed a close race and he touted an endorsement from U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy to try to put him over 50%. By comparison, Milne lagged in fundraising and spending, with $100,000 available compared to Shumlin's $1.1 million, which meant that he could not afford to pay for polling.
  Opinions varied about the effect Libertarian nominee Dan Feliciano's candidacy had on the result. Former governor Douglas suggested that Feliciano split the anti-Shumlin vote. The Burlington Free Press speculated that Feliciano drew voters dissatisfied with Shumlin but who would have voted for Milne if they had realized that he had a chance to prevail. Feliciano stated that he was "not a spoiler" but drew voters who could not bring themselves to vote for the Republican candidate. A Feliciano campaign consultant felt, based on polling, that her candidate's stance against Shumlin's healthcare policy garnered votes. Milne, who did no polling, began criticizing Shumlin's healthcare policy later in the campaign than Feliciano. Republicans wondered whether they should have done more to push Feliciano out, whether Milne should have run more strongly against single-payer, whether 2012 nominee and former state auditor Randy Brock should have run again, and whether the state party should have been less focused on state legislative races.
  Analysis by political experts pointed to the record-low voter turnout–around 43.6%–and that 39,000 more people voted for Democratic Congressman Peter Welch than voted for Shumlin as a sign of dissatisfaction with Shumlin. University of Vermont political science professor Garrison Nelson said that "the people who showed up are the angry ones" and that, unlike Shumlin, "Welch demonstrated an appeal far beyond just the Democratic base."
  In a news conference on November 12, Shumlin stated that the result was "humbling" and said that he would "listen, learn, reflect [and] be more inclusive." He also pledged to move ahead with single-payer health care and to address school spending, property taxes and the $100-million budget gap.
caption: Democratic U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy, whose support Shumlin touted
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