page_title: 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries
section_title: End of 2015: the field stabilizes, six candidates gain traction
hierarchical_section_title: 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries / Timeline of the race / End of 2015: the field stabilizes, six candidates gain traction
caption_attribution_description: English: Scott Walker speaking at an event in Phoenix, Arizona.
context_page_description: The 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries and caucuses were a series of electoral contests that took place within all 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories between February 1 and June 7, 2016. Sanctioned by the Republican Party, these elections selected the 2,472 delegates that were sent to the Republican National Convention. Businessman and reality television star Donald Trump won the Republican nomination for president of the United States.
  A total of 17 major candidates entered the race. Prior to the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries, this was the largest presidential primary field for any political party in American history. U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas won the Iowa caucuses, and Trump won the New Hampshire primary and the South Carolina primary. From March 16, 2016, to May 3, 2016, only three candidates remained in the race: Trump, Cruz, and Ohio Governor John Kasich. Cruz won four Western contests and won in Wisconsin, keeping a credible path to denying Trump the nomination on first ballot with 1,237 delegates.
context_section_description: By the end of September, most polling averages indicated that the field was finally stabilizing in terms of public opinion and six candidates in particular were gaining traction and pulling away from the rest of the field by considerable margins. Polling averages indicated the top six as Trump, Carson, Rubio, Fiorina, Bush and Cruz. Trump and Carson were consistently first and second, respectively; Fiorina was initially in third place before being surpassed by Rubio; while Bush and Cruz remained in fifth and sixth place, respectively. The other candidates who had been in the top ten of polling—Christie, Huckabee, Paul and Kasich—all leveled out at roughly 3% or less, while the five remaining candidates outside the top ten—Santorum, Jindal, Pataki, Graham and Gilmore—were consistently polling below 1%. By the third debate in late October, Bush and Fiorina's numbers were also beginning to fade, while Cruz was on the rise and began coming in fourth by most poll averages. The third debate only solidified these numbers: Bush and Fiorina remained in low digits as both were considered lackluster, while Cruz was widely held as the winner and rose even further. Throughout this period, both Trump and Carson had pulled well ahead of the rest of the field and with Trump often registering in the low 30s and high 20s and Carson in the low 20s, the two of them combined often made up well over 50% of the electorate in a vast majority of national polls. Later in October and in early November, Carson began to match even with Trump by most polling averages, rising into the mid 20s and often finishing either just behind or just ahead of Trump.
  By October, with the polls reflecting a field that seemed to be stabilizing, most commentators began to claim that the field had already established who the final four candidates—those who were in the race for the long-term and had the best chance of actually becoming the nominee—would be. The four were listed as being Trump, Carson, Rubio, and Cruz: Trump and Carson for their appeal as outsiders, as well as their opposite personalities—with Trump's blunt nature and tough foreign policy stances, against Carson's soft-spoken nature and personal favorability—Rubio for his appeal to Hispanics and his stance on such issues as immigration reform, combined with strong debate performances and significant donor backing and Cruz for his appeal to Tea Party and Christian Conservative voters, which was seen as possibly having a strong impact in the southern states. On November 17, 2015, Jindal became the third major Republican candidate to drop out. The November 2015 Paris attacks, which killed 130 people days before Jindal dropped out, were widely seen as having a significant impact on the 2016 presidential race, particularly on the Republican side. The attacks were seen as boosting the campaigns of those with tough stances on immigration like Trump and Cruz, as well as the foreign policy hawks like Rubio. Possibly as a result, Carson—who had previously been perceived as uninformed and relatively inarticulate on foreign policy—began to suffer in the polls, with Trump once again solidifying a double-digit lead over everyone else, while Rubio and Cruz began to steadily rise as Carson's numbers declined.
  By December, Cruz had overtaken Carson by solidifying a base of support among Christian conservatives and averaged national polling of 18%, second only to Trump. The non-interventionist Paul still failed to make traction at this juncture, while Carson fell down to about 10%, roughly even with Rubio. On December 15, 2015, there was another presidential debate, which saw no major changes in the perceptions of the candidates. On December 21, 2015, the same day as the deadline to withdraw from the ballot in his home state of South Carolina, Graham suspended his campaign. Eight days later, on December 29, Pataki, who was struggling to poll above the margin of error, suspended his campaign as well.
caption: Governor Scott Walker surprised many political observers when he announced the suspension of his campaign on September 21, 2015, in Wisconsin.
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