page_title: National Intelligence Assessments on Infectious Diseases
section_title: Ethiopia
hierarchical_section_title: National Intelligence Assessments on Infectious Diseases / Intelligence Community Assessment on the Next Wave of HIV/AIDS / Ethiopia
caption_attribution_description: 2nd Wave HIV for Ethiopia, by prenatal care
context_page_description: The United States intelligence community has a long history of producing assessments on infectious diseases. Most of these papers are distributed to government administrators and inform the choices of policymakers. Three of these assessments stand out as analytical products that have had important impact on the awareness, funding and treatment of infectious diseases around the world. The first paper is the National Intelligence Estimate on the Global Infectious Disease Threat, the second paper is the assessment on the Next Wave of HIV/AIDS, and the third paper was the assessment on SARS. This page summarizes the findings of these three papers and provides information about their impact.
context_section_description: Ethiopia is estimated to have the highest adult prevalence rate, between 10 and 18%—was the highest among the five countries. This reflects two social effects:
  Like Nigeria, the disease has moved into the general population
  Unlike the other countries, the effects of war have a significant effect on spread
  Another surge of infections may be underway from the 150,000 demobilized soldiers over the last two years as the conflict with Eritrea has wound down. More troops will be sent home as the border dispute is settled.
  As soldiers demobilize, prostitutes—who have even higher rates of infection—disperse around the country as well.
  The figure to the right shows prevalence at prenatal clinics, which appears to be the best single indicator.
  Expert estimates the actual number of HIV patients may be between 3 and 5 million. Adult prevalence is much higher in cities (13–20%) than in rural areas (5%). Heterosexual transmission is the primary mode of spread, and people with multiple partners—especially those with sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and prostitutes—have significantly higher infection rates.
  Unlike conditions in other next-wave countries, war has significantly contributed to the spread of the disease in Ethiopia. Many soldiers contracted HIV/AIDS during the civil war in the 1980s by having contact with multiple sex partners. When the war ended in 1991, thousands of infected soldiers and prostitutes returned home, spreading HIV/AIDS in their villages and towns.
  Ethiopians, due to result of drought, malnutrition, limited healthcare, and other infectious diseases, have generally poor health. In the HIV-seropositive group, this has caused HIV to progress rapidly to AIDS. Looking ahead, we expect 7 to 10 million Ethiopians probably will be infected by 2010 because of the high current rate of adult prevalence, widespread poverty, low educational levels, and the government’s limited capacity to respond more actively.
caption: HIV seropositivity at Ethiopian prenatal clinics
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