page_title: 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake
section_title: Forecasts
hierarchical_section_title: 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake / Background / Forecasts
caption_attribution_description: English: Loma Prieta Peak, as seen from near Soquel.
context_page_description: The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake occurred on California’s Central Coast on October 17 at 5:04 p.m. local time. The shock was centered in The Forest of Nisene Marks State Park approximately 10 mi northeast of Santa Cruz on a section of the San Andreas Fault System and was named for the nearby Loma Prieta Peak in the Santa Cruz Mountains. With an Mw magnitude of 6.9 and a maximum Modified Mercalli intensity of IX, the shock was responsible for 63 deaths and 3,757 injuries. The Loma Prieta segment of the San Andreas Fault System had been relatively inactive since the 1906 San Francisco earthquake until two moderate foreshocks occurred in June 1988 and again in August 1989.
  Damage was heavy in Santa Cruz County and less so to the south in Monterey County, but effects extended well to the north into the San Francisco Bay Area, both on the San Francisco Peninsula and across the bay in Oakland. No surface faulting occurred, though many other ground failures and landslides were present, especially in the Summit area of the Santa Cruz Mountains.
context_section_description: Since many forecasts had been presented for the region near Loma Prieta, seismologists were not taken by surprise by the October 1989 event. Between 1910 and 1989 there were 20 widely varying forecasts that were announced, with some that were highly specific, covering multiple aspects of an event, while others were less complete and vague. With a M6.5 event on the San Juan Bautista segment, or an M7 event on the San Francisco Peninsula segment, United States Geological Survey (USGS) seismologist Allan Lindh's 1983 forecasted rupture length of 25 miles (40 km) (starting near Pajaro Gap, and continuing to the northwest) for the San Juan Bautista segment nearly matched the actual rupture length of the 1989 event. An updated forecast was presented in 1988, at which time Lindh took the opportunity to assign a new name to the San Juan Bautista segment – the Loma Prieta segment.
  In early 1988, the Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) made several statements regarding their forecasts for the 225 mi (360 km) northern San Andreas Fault segment, the 56 mi (90 km) San Francisco Peninsula segment, and a 18.8–22 mi (30–35 km) portion of that segment which was referred to as the southern Santa Cruz Mountains segment. The thirty year probability for one or more M7 earthquakes in the study area was given as 50%, but because of a lack of information and low confidence, a 30% probability was assigned to the Southern Santa Cruz Mountains segment. Two moderate shocks, referred to as the Lake Elsman earthquakes by the USGS, occurred in the Santa Cruz Mountains region in June 1988 and again in August 1989. Following each event, the State office of Emergency Services issued (for the first time in Bay Area history) short term advisories for a possible large earthquake, which meant there was "a slightly increased likelihood of an M6.5 event on the Santa Cruz Mountains segment of the San Andreas fault". The advisories following the two Lake Elsman events were issued in part because of the statements made by WGCEP and because they were two of the three largest shocks to occur along the 1906 earthquake's rupture zone since 1914.
caption: Loma Prieta Peak in the Santa Cruz Mountains
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