page_title: Tropical Storm Erika
section_title: Meteorological history
hierarchical_section_title: Tropical Storm Erika / Meteorological history
caption_attribution_description: English: Track map of Tropical Storm Erika of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. The points show the location of the storm at 6-hour intervals. The colour represents the storm's maximum sustained wind speeds as classified in the Saffir–Simpson scale (see below), and the shape of the data points represent the nature of the storm, according to the legend below. Saffir–Simpson scale Tropical depression≤38 mph≤62 km/h Category 3111–129 mph178–208 km/h Tropical storm39–73 mph63–118 km/h Category 4130–156 mph209–251 km/h Category 174–95 mph119–153 km/h Category 5≥157 mph≥252 km/h Category 296–110 mph154–177 km/h Unknown Storm type Tropical cyclone Subtropical cyclone Extratropical cyclone / Remnant low / Tropical disturbance / Monsoon depression
context_page_description: Tropical Storm Erika was, at the time, the deadliest and most destructive natural disaster in Dominica since Hurricane David in 1979. The fifth named storm of the season, Erika developed from a westward-moving tropical wave while well east of the Lesser Antilles. Hostile conditions, including dry air and wind shear, inhibited significant development, and Erika failed to acquire sustained winds beyond 50 mph. Contrary to predictions of a northwesterly recurvature, the cyclone persisted on a westerly course and passed through the Leeward Islands and emerged over the Caribbean Sea on August 27. Erika succumbed to adverse conditions the following day, dissipating as a tropical cyclone near the Dominican Republic. The remnant system persisted for several more days, ultimately moving across the Gulf of Mexico, before dissipating over Georgia on September 3.
  Several islands experienced heavy rainfall during the passage of Erika, especially Dominica. The storm's asymmetric structure, coupled with the mountainous terrain of the island and ample moisture aloft, led to rainfall accumulations up to 33 in.
context_section_description: On August 20, 2015, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring a tropical wave over western Africa, near the Atlantic shore. The disorganized system emerged over the Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands the following day. Moving quickly west, the system bypassed the Cape Verde Islands to the south on August 22, but remained largely disorganized. A sharp trough developed within expanding deep convection on August 23, though a well-defined circulation did not consolidate. Organization of the low improved throughout the day as environmental conditions favored tropical cyclogenesis. The trough acquired gale-force winds the following day and finally developed a closed circulation by 18:00 UTC. The formation of a closed low marked the transition into a tropical cyclone; accordingly, the system was classified as Tropical Storm Erika, the fifth named storm of the annual hurricane season. Upon its designation, Erika was situated roughly 1,035 mi (1,665 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. The storm maintained a brisk westward trajectory, steered by a subtropical ridge to the north.
  At the time of Erika's classification, forecast models diverged significantly on the potential future of Erika. Statistical guidance and the HWRF depicted a hurricane while the ECMWF and GFS showed a weaker system due to increasing wind shear. The models that intensified the storm indicated a more northerly track while those that kept it weaker had the system continuing along a westward course. Accordingly, the NHC noted low confidence in their five-day forecast for Erika. This uncertainty ultimately reflected in above-average forecast errors when compared to all tropical cyclones, but roughly average for weak, poorly organized systems. Throughout August 25 and into early August 26, the convective organization of Erika fluctuated due to wind shear and entrainment of dry air, periodically leaving the center of circulation devoid of convection. Early on August 27, Erika managed to intensify slightly, attaining its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/h) and a barometric pressure of 1001 mbar (hPa; 29.56 inHg). Around  09:00 UTC, the disorganized center of Erika passed near the northern tip of Guadeloupe, before emerging over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
  Convection remained poorly-organized and mostly confined to eastern portions of the cyclone, as it traversed the eastern Caribbean Sea. Multiple circulation centers were noted during the overnight of August 27–28, all rotating around a broad general center. One such center moved over St. Croix and produced gale-force gusts. Environmental conditions ahead of the storm became increasingly hostile, and forecasters at the NHC continued to note unusually high uncertainty in their forecasts. Further structural degradation ensued on August 28 as Erika approached the Dominican Republic. Based on data from Hurricane Hunters, Erika degenerated into a broad area of low pressure—no longer meeting the definition of a tropical cyclone—shortly after 12:00 UTC, near the southeastern coast of the Dominican Republic. Operationally, the NHC maintained advisories on Erika until 13:30 UTC on August 29. It was also noted during those advisories that the center was completely devoid of convection, and whatever convection remained was reduced to the eastern half of the system.
  Around 21:00 UTC on August 28, the remnants of Erika made landfall along the southeastern coast of the Dominican Republic. The disheveled system emerged over the Windward Passage early on August 29. Thereafter, the system skirted the northern coast of Cuba and entered the Gulf of Mexico on August 31. Turning northward, the disturbance eventually crossed northern Florida on September 2, before dissipating over Georgia on the following day.
caption: Map plotting the track and the intensity of the storm, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
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