page_title: Peak gas
section_title: Recent US peak predictions
hierarchical_section_title: Peak gas / By country / United States / Recent US peak predictions
caption_attribution_description: English: US natural gas production, historical and projected, by type of gas reservoir.
context_page_description: According to M. King Hubbert's Hubbert peak theory, peak gas is the point in time at which the maximum global natural gas production rate will be reached, after which the rate of production will enter its terminal decline. Natural gas is a fossil fuel formed from plant matter over the course of millions of years. It is a finite resource and thus considered to be a non-renewable energy source.
  The concept of peak gas follows from Hubbert peak theory, which is most commonly associated with peak oil. Hubbert saw gas, coal and oil as natural resources, each of which would peak in production and eventually run out for a region, a country, or the world. Since Hubbert's initial predictions in 1956, "the proper application of ever more powerful statistical techniques has reduced much of the uncertainty about the supply of oil and natural gas". One view in 1997 was that Hubbert's use of an exponential decline model was statistically adequate in explaining real world data. However, longer-term experience has shown the predictions to be incorrect.
context_section_description: Economist Doug Reynolds predicted in 2005 that the North American gas peak would occur in 2007 Reynolds revised his forecast in 2009 to include Southern Canada; he predicted that the combined US Lower 48-Southern Canadian gas production would peak in 2013.
  Although Hubbert had acknowledged multiple peaks in oil production in Illinois, he used single peak models for oil and gas production in the US as a whole.  In 2008, Tad Patzek of the University of California rejected the single-peak model, and showed the multiple peaks of past US gas production as the sum of five different Hubbert curves.  He concluded that new technology has more than doubled gas reserves.  His figure 15 shows gas production declining steeply after a probable peak in known cycles in 2008.  However, he refrained from predicting a date after which gas production would begin terminal decline, but noted: "The actual future of US natural gas production will be the sum of known Hubbert cycles, shown in this paper, and future Hubbert cycles." and warned: "The current drilling effort in the US cannot be sustained without major new advances to increase the productivity of tight formations."
  In 2005 Exxon's CEO Lee Raymond said to Reuters that "Gas production has peaked in North America." The Reuters article continues to say "While the number of U.S. rigs drilling for natural gas has climbed about 20 percent over the last year and prices are at record highs, producers have been struggling to raise output."  North American natural gas production indeed peaked in 2001 at 27.5×10¹² cu ft (780 km³) per year, and declined to 26.1×10¹² cu ft (740 km³) by 2005, but then rose again in 2006 and 2007 to a new high of 27.9×10¹² cu ft (790 km³)in 2007 This would make the 2007 figure 1.45% higher than the 2001 figure, for an average annual increase of 0.24% per year during 2001–2007.
  In December 2009 the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected US marketed gas production will have reached a first peak at 20.60×10¹² cu ft (583 km³) in 2009, decline to 18.90×10¹² cu ft (535 km³) in 2013, then rise again to 23.27×10¹² cu ft (659 km³) in 2035, the final year of their projection, for an average annual rate of increase of 0.47% per year during 2009–2035 In its Annual Energy Outlook 2010   released in May 2010, EIA projected growth from 20.6×10¹² cu ft (580 km³) in 2008 (same amount as 2009) to 23.3 trillion cubic feet (660 km³) in 2035 in the Reference case, with Alternative case estimates ranging 17.4 to 25.9×10¹² cu ft (730 km³) in 2035. These represent productions of average annual growth rates between −0.63% (net decline) and 0.85% in the alternate cases, and 0.46% in the reference case.
caption: The US Energy Information Administration projects US gas production to increase through 2040, due largely to increased shale gas production.
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