page_title: Attribution of recent climate change
hierarchical_section_title: Attribution of recent climate change
caption_attribution_description: English: PDF (Probability Density Function) of attribution of surface temperature trends since 1950 based on IPCC AR5 10.5, as described at http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/08/ipcc-attribution-statements-redux-a-response-to-judith-curry/?wpmp_switcher=desktop
context_page_description: Attribution of recent climate change is the effort to scientifically ascertain mechanisms responsible for recent global warming and related climate changes on Earth. The effort has focused on changes observed during the period of instrumental temperature record, particularly in the last 50 years. This is the period when human activity has grown fastest and observations of the atmosphere above the surface have become available. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, it is "extremely likely" that human influence was the dominant cause of global warming between 1951 and 2010. Likely human contribution is 93%–123% of the observed 1951–2010 temperature change.
  Some of the main human activities that contribute to global warming are:
  increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, for a warming effect
  global changes to land surface, such as deforestation, for a warming effect
  increasing atmospheric concentrations of aerosols, mainly for a cooling effect
  In addition to human activities, some natural mechanisms can also cause climate change, including for example, climate oscillations, changes in solar activity, and volcanic activity.
context_section_description: Attribution of recent climate change is the effort to scientifically ascertain mechanisms responsible for recent global warming and related climate changes on Earth. The effort has focused on changes observed during the period of instrumental temperature record, particularly in the last 50 years. This is the period when human activity has grown fastest and observations of the atmosphere above the surface have become available. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is "extremely likely" that human influence was the dominant cause of global warming between 1951 and 2010. Likely human contribution is 93%–123% of the observed 1951–2010 temperature change.
  Some of the main human activities that contribute to global warming are:
  increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, for a warming effect
  global changes to land surface, such as deforestation, for a warming effect
  increasing atmospheric concentrations of aerosols, mainly for a cooling effect
  In addition to human activities, some natural mechanisms can also cause climate change, including for example, climate oscillations, changes in solar activity, and volcanic activity.
  Multiple lines of evidence support attribution of recent climate change to human activities:
  A physical understanding of the climate system: greenhouse gas concentrations have increased and their warming properties are well-established.
  Historical estimates of past climate changes suggest that the recent changes in global surface temperature are unusual.
  Computer-based climate models are unable to replicate the observed warming unless human greenhouse gas emissions are included.
  Natural forces alone (such as solar and volcanic activity) cannot explain the observed warming.
  The IPCC's attribution of recent global warming to human activities is a view shared by the scientific community, and is also supported by 196 other scientific organizations worldwide (see also: Scientific consensus on climate change).
caption: Probability density function (PDF) of fraction of surface temperature trends since 1950 attributable to human activity, based on IPCC AR5 10.5
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