page_title: 2011 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election
section_title: Post-poll surveys
hierarchical_section_title: 2011 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election / Opinion polls / Post-poll surveys
caption_attribution_description: English: Using Excel, created a bar graph illustrating the differences in margin of victory (in seats) between opinion polling and final results. The formula used to make the calculation is (AIADMK seats won from opinion polling - DMK seats won from opinion polling) - (203-31). Green represents the polling made the correct prediction (AIADMK+ victory or lead), while Red represents the polling made the wrong prediction (DMK+ victory or lead). In cases where a range was given by the polling agency, the upper and lower limit of the range were averaged.
context_page_description: The fourteenth legislative assembly election was held on 13 April 2011 to elect members from 234 constituencies in the India state of Tamil Nadu. Results were released on 13 May 2011. Two major parties Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam faced the election as coalitions of multiple political parties: DMK front consisted of 8 parties and the AIADMK of 11 parties. Vijayakanth's Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam, which had contested the previous elections independently, allied with AIADMK coalition. Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam boycotted the election following disagreement with Jayalalithaa over seat-sharing. Tamil film actor Vijay was openly involved in Tamil Nadu politics for the first time by extending his support for ADMK.
  The outgoing Karunanidhi government was noted for the construction of new assembly building in Chennai, execution of various developmental projects and implementation of new entitlement programs including free health care for the poor and issuance of a range of freebies such as colour television to all.
context_section_description: Since exit polls are banned by ECI, Headlines Today-ORG Poll, conducted a post-poll survey, where they polled voters after they voted in their houses. Post polls conducted by Headlines Today-ORG Poll, found this election to be a toss-up, with DMK gaining a lot of ground in the last few weeks before the election. The exit poll particularly noted a late swing towards the incumbent in the rural communities of Tamil Nadu, which allowed the DMK and its alliance to increase its overall vote share percentage from 45% in the pre-poll survey to 50% post-poll. A couple of weeks after the Headlines today post poll, a few post polls showed the exact opposite result, with CNN-IBN and Asianet post poll giving AIADMK+, the majority of the same margin.
caption: The above bar graph shows the differences in margin of victory (seats) between opinion polling and final results. Green represents the polling agency made the correct prediction (AIADMK+ victory/lead)
  Red represents the polling agency made the wrong prediction (DMK+ victory/lead)
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