page_title: Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa
section_title: Water scarcity
hierarchical_section_title: Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa / Current and projected impacts on the MENA region / Water scarcity
caption_attribution_description: Food insecurity is on the rise in Lankien, northern Jonglei due to conflict. Farmer Kuay Makuach describes how it has impacted him: "We have some food left from the last harvest, but it is almost finished. It won’t reach up to the next harvest. There are no other options, if the UN comes, maybe they can provide. Otherwise, I’ll have to sell some cattle. We normally plant in two locations at the same time but because of this crisis there is only this only place where we were able to plant. But now it was affected by drought and later on rain came late and everything was flooded, so I did not manage to go to the other place to cultivate that land." Photo: Aimee Brown/Oxfam
context_page_description: Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa refers to changes in the climate of the MENA region and the subsequent response, adaption and mitigation strategies of countries in the region. In 2018, the MENA region emitted 3.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide and produced 8.7% of global greenhouse gas emissions despite making up only 6% of the global population. These emissions are mostly from the energy sector, an integral component of many Middle Eastern and North African economies due to the extensive oil and natural gas reserves that are found within the region.
  Recognised by the United Nations, The World Bank and the World Health Organisation as one of the greatest global challenges in the 21st century, climate change is currently having an unprecedented effect upon the Earth's natural systems. Sharp global temperature and sea level changes, shifting precipitation patterns and increased frequency of extreme weather events are some of the main impacts of climate change as identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
context_section_description: The Middle East and North Africa currently faces extreme water scarcity, with twelve out of the 17 most water stressed countries in the world deriving from the region. The World Bank defines an area as being water stressed when per person water supplies fall below 1,700 cubic metres per year. The water supply across the MENA region is averaged at 1274 cubic metres per capita, with some countries having access to only 50 cubic metres per person. The agricultural sector within the MENA region is heavily dependent on irrigation systems due to its arid climate, with 85% of fresh water resources being utilised for agricultural purposes. The IPCC indicate that the global distribution of rainfall is currently shifting in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, with increases in high latitude and mid-latitude wet region and decreases in equatorial dry regions such as the MENA. These shifting precipitation patterns have already placed significant strain on MENA agriculture, with the frequency and severity of droughts rising significantly in the past decade.
  A recent NASA study suggests that the 1998-2012 drought in the Middle East was the worst to occur in the past 900 years. Climate scientist Colin Kelley suggests that climate change was a significant contributor to the increased severity of the most recent drought in the region. He claims that such drought is 3 times more likely to occur due to human influence on climate and the drought have contributed to the beginning of the Syrian civil war. Along with environmental impacts, increasing drought periods affect agricultural incomes, diminishes public health and weakens political stability in the MENA region.  Syria experienced its most severe drought on record from 2007-2010, where restricted water supply degraded agricultural resources and increased economic pressures. American environmental scientist Peter Gleick also asserts that heightened social vulnerability and conflict over scare water supplies during this period catalysed the onset of the Syrian war. 
  However, in 2017 a study lead by sociologist and political ecologist Jan Selby has discredited these claims, reporting that there is no solid evidence that climate change is associated with the drought, the same about the impact of the drought on the conflict in Syria. In 2019 Konstantin Ash
  and Nick Obradovich published a research that support the version of extreme drought as on of the leading factors in the creation of the Syrian war.
  Increasing water insecurity as a result of climate change is set to exacerbate existing food insecurities in the countries affected. A study published by the World Food Porgramme has predicted a decline in crop yields by 30% in 2050 as a result of increasing droughts. North African countries are highly vulnerable to reduced precipitation as 88% of the regions crops possess no irrigation, relying on consistent rainfall. The consequences of these reduced harvests strongly impact rural regions and communities that rely heavily on agriculture as a source of income.
caption: A Sudanese farmer and his land. Drought and low rainfall has severely reduced the farmer's capacity to grow crops.
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