page_title: Peak oil
section_title: Demand
hierarchical_section_title: Peak oil / Demand
caption_attribution_description: English: Consumption of crude oil barrels per capita per day by country Oil barrels per person each day&#160;&gt;&#160;0.07&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;0.07 - 0.05&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;0.05 - 0.035&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;0.035 - 0.025&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;0.025 - 0.02&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;0.02 - 0.015&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;0.015 - 0.01&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;0.01 - 0.005&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;0.005 - 0.0015&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&lt;&#160;0.0015&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;
context_page_description: Peak oil is the theorized point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline. As of 2020, peak oil forecasts range from the early 2020s to the 2040s, depending on economics and how governments respond to global warming. It is often confused with oil depletion; however, whereas depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply, peak oil refers to the point of maximum production. The concept of peak oil is often credited to geologist M. King Hubbert whose 1956 paper first presented a formal theory. Peak oil occurs when the cost of oil extraction exceeds the price consumers will pay.
  Most early analyses concentrated on increasing costs of extraction and assumed that demand would drive costs higher. More recent analyses concentrate on drop in demand as alternatives to oil become more attractive.
  Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S.
context_section_description: The demand side of peak oil over time is concerned with the total quantity of oil that the global market would choose to consume at any given market price. The hypothesis that peak oil would be driven by a reduction in the availability of easily extractible oil implies that prices will increase over time to match demand with a declining supply.
  By contrast, developments since 2010 have given rise to the idea of demand-driven peak oil. The central idea is that, in response to technological developments and pressure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, demand for oil at any given price will decline. In this context, the development of electric vehicles creates the possibility that the primary use of oil, transportation, will diminish in importance over time.
  After growing steadily until around 2006, oil demand has fluctuated, falling during recession periods, and then recovering, but at slower growth rates than in the past. Oil demand fell sharply during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic, with market prices briefly becoming negative .
  Energy demand is distributed amongst four broad sectors: transportation, residential, commercial, and industrial. In terms of oil use, transportation is the largest sector and the one that has seen the largest growth in demand in recent decades. This growth has largely come from new demand for personal-use vehicles powered by internal combustion engines. This sector also has the highest consumption rates, accounting for approximately 71% of the oil used in the United States in 2013. and 55% of oil use worldwide as documented in the Hirsch report. Transportation is therefore of particular interest to those seeking to mitigate the effects of peak oil.
  Although demand growth is highest in the developing world, the United States is the world's largest consumer of petroleum. Between 1995 and 2005, US consumption grew from 17,700,000 barrels per day (2,810,000 m³/d) to 20,700,000 barrels per day (3,290,000 m³/d), a 3,000,000 barrels per day (480,000 m³/d) increase. China, by comparison, increased consumption from 3,400,000 barrels per day (540,000 m³/d) to 7,000,000 barrels per day (1,100,000 m³/d), an increase of 3,600,000 barrels per day (570,000 m³/d), in the same time frame. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated that gasoline usage in the United States may have peaked in 2007, in part because of increasing interest in and mandates for use of biofuels and energy efficiency.
  As countries develop, industry and higher living standards drive up energy use, oil usage being a major component. Thriving economies, such as China and India, are quickly becoming large oil consumers. For example, China surpassed the United States as the world's largest crude oil importer in 2015. Oil consumption growth is expected to continue; however, not at previous rates, as China's economic growth is predicted to decrease from the high rates of the early part of the 21st century. India's oil imports are expected to more than triple from 2005 levels by 2020, rising to 5 million barrels per day (790×103 m³/d).
caption: Oil consumption in bbl per day per capita (darker colors represent more consumption, gray represents no data) (source: NationMaster statistics, 2007-01-13)         > 0.07
     0.07–0.05
     0.05–0.035
     0.035–0.025
     0.025–0.02
      0.02–0.015
     0.015–0.01
     0.01–0.005
     0.005–0.0015
      < 0.0015
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