特朗普主义

特朗普主义（英語：Trumpism）是指与第45任美国总统唐納·川普及他所秉持基本盤密切相关的意識形態、政治风格、政治運動及获取和保持权力的机制。特朗普主义的支持者被称为特朗普主义者。特朗普主义的确切含义仍有争议。尽管特朗普主义的复杂程度足以使任何单一的分析框架失效，其仍被称为美国極右派的政治变种，也被认为是2010年代末至2020年代初全球多个国家出现的民族民粹主义和新民族主义情绪的变种。一些学者及媒体甚至将其与法西斯主义（英语：Fascism in North America）相提并论。多数史学家认为将特朗普主义比作法西斯主义是对特朗普主义一词的误用，并指出尽管特朗普主义在总体上可能与法西斯主义有相似点，但彼此之间也有显著的不同点。这个术语有时候也被其他西方民主政权的保守派民族主义者或民粹派民族主义者使用。 特朗普主义大致兴起于川普于2016年竞选美国总统。它代表了一套民粹主義的政治策略，同时更多的使用民族主义性的手段应对政治、经济及社会问题。这些趋向具体的反映到具体的策略上便变成了移民限制主义、贸易保护主义、孤立主义及反对福利改革（英语：entitlement reform）。但作为一种政治策略，民粹主义本身并不由任何意识形态所驱使。前总统国家安全事务助理及特朗普的前亲密顾问博尔顿承认这些分析确实适用于特朗普，但对于“特朗普主义”这个词本身是否有哲学意义存在质疑，同时强调“那个男人（指特朗普）就没有一种特定的哲学，如果人们试图在他的决定的点点滴滴之间划线并分析的话，他们最终会发现他们一无所获”。 朱泰尔在《全球民粹主义手册》写道“唐纳德·特朗普揭示的是美国右翼民粹主义的各种迭代，与程式化的社会保守主义或自由主义经济无关，反而与人们的享乐感有关”。当提及特朗普的民粹主义时，社会学家基梅尔（英语：Michael Kimmel）称它“不是一种理论或意识形态，而是一种情感。而这种情感基于正义的愤慨——即政府在欺骗‘我们’”，基梅尔继续指出“特朗普是一个有意思的人，因为他的发声渠道、所有的感觉汇聚在一起不过是一种我称之为‘委屈的权利’的感觉”，基梅尔给委屈的权利这个词的定义是“一种感觉：对那些你认为自己有权得到的好处，已经被看不见的更强大的力量夺走了的感觉。你觉得美国梦这个伟大承诺对于那些本应继承它的人来说已经变成了一个不可能的幻想”。传播学学者帕帕查里西解释称“当公众的意见在情感的参与下茁壮成长时，他们就需要找到一个围绕开放的符号（英语：floating signifier）建立起来的，能够利用且能够复用的情感钩子。对，你当然知道，特朗普总统使用了MAGA作为这个情感钩子，这是一个漂浮能指，它把所有人都拉进来，但这个符号又是开放的，因为它允许每个人对它赋予不同的意义。所以，MAGA的作用是连接不同的公众——因为它足够开放，允许人们对它赋予自己的意义”。 在《全球民粹主义手册》一书中，多位合著者指出，民粹主义领导人会倾向于以实用主义和机会主义对待能引起追随者强烈共鸣的主题、思想和信仰。票站调查数据显示，特朗普的竞选活动成功动员了“被剥夺权利的白人（英语：White backlash）”、正经历社会不平等并经常表示反对建制派的欧裔美国低阶层（英语：American lower class）及工人阶层（英语：Working class in the United States）。从意识形态上来说，特朗普具有右翼民粹主義的特点。 《国会山报》华盛顿首席记者恩杰蒂报道称，许多特朗普的支持者普遍认为特朗普主义本身并不具有意识形态的意义，“我常被许多完全在‘MAGA’（让美国再次伟大）阵营的人告知特朗普主义意味着特朗普所做的一切事情，所以特朗普做任何事情都不会违背特朗普主义”。 在解释特朗普当选并能在相当一部分选民中维持稳定的支持率时，塔克在《特朗普与政治哲学》一书中认为，尽管美国历史上所有的总统竞选都与强烈的情感有关，但特朗普能够认识到，然后获得那些和他一样对美国的变化持有特殊的强烈情感的人的信任和忠诚。 她指出：“社会心理学家韦斯滕认为民主党人在衡量和回应情感政治——引起公民强烈情感状态的问题上不太成功”。来自多个领域的学者认为，特定的情感主题及其对社交媒体关联追随者的动态影响是特朗普及其支持者的特征。 传播学学者卡尔皮尼指出“特朗普主义是几十年来发生的趋势的顶点。我们所见证的不过是新闻、政治和民主之间关系的根本性转变”，卡尔皮尼进一步指出在这些转变中可以看到“先前（媒体）制度对新闻和娱乐的假定和强制区分的崩溃”。传播学教授雅克梅在为专门研究特朗普对媒体的使用的《特朗普时代的语言》一书中写道“这种方法，就像特朗普的意识形态和政策议程的其他大部分一样，假设（似乎是正确的）他的受众在媒体消费中更关心震惊和娱乐价值，而不是任何其他东西”。 人类学家杰西卡·约翰逊在研究特朗普对社交媒体的使用时发现社交愉悦感在其中起到了核心作用，并进一步指出：“Facebook的用户与其说是觉得准确的新闻有意义，不如说是觉得连接的情感愉悦会让人上瘾，这与他们分享的信息是否是事实无关，这就是交流资本主义在俘虏主体的同时也吸引了他们”。回顾社交媒体之前的世界后，传播学研究者布莱恩·L·奥特（英语：Brian L. Ott）写道： 我很怀念电视时代，波兹曼（1985）认为，电视时代通过把新闻包装成娱乐，产生了“西方世界最少但相对了解情况的人”（第106-107页）。推特把一个人所做的一切和所想的一切都当作有新闻价值的事情，从而让人无限放大自己在历史中的地位。电视的突袭可能深深的伤害了新闻业，但Twitter直接杀死了它。 一些学者对特朗普的专制主义提出了政治上的紧急警告，比如耶鲁大学的社会学家戈尔斯基（英语：Philip S. Gorski）称“唐纳德·特朗普的当选也许构成了自日本偷袭珍珠港以来对美国民主的最大威胁。这是一种真实的、日益增长的危险，即代议制政府将在未来几年被民粹主义形式的专制统治缓慢但有效地取代。媒体恐吓、大规模政治宣传、压制选民（英语：Voter suppression in the United States）、法庭包装（英语：Nuclear option）、甚至动用准军事部队——专制主义演变的许多必要和充分条件正在逐步到位”。其他学者认为这种专制主义的反弹是自由民主制度的一个特征。 《纽约时报》的专栏作家戈德堡（英语：Michelle Goldberg）把“特朗普主义的精神”同法西斯主义的经典思想相提并论。戈德堡称法西斯主义的“动员愿景”是“民族共同体在经历了一个侵蚀性，几乎摧毁了它的颓废时期后，如凤凰般地崛起”，这“听起来和MAGA（让美国再次伟大）特别像”。同样，戈德堡称与特朗普运动类似，法西斯主义也称自己“需要自然领袖（且总是男性）的权威，最终由一个国家领袖来体现群体的历史命运”。而这些拥护者相信“领导者的直觉优于抽象和普遍理性”。 保守派的专栏作家威尔（英语：George Will）同样认为特朗普主义与法西斯主义很像，称：“特朗普主义使用了将自己伪装成一种正式的主义的策略”。国家的团结基于共同的国内恐惧——对法西斯来说是犹太人，对特朗普在社交媒体上的发言（他把这些敌对者称为“全民公敌”）来说是“精英”和“全球主义者”。而解决办法也不是来自枯燥乏味的“渐进主义和和解策略”，而是不受程序约束的领导人（“只有我能解决这些问题”）。群众的集会满足他的政治基础，但强人不可避免地对他所领导的人产生蔑视。两者都是基于大男子主义，就特朗普主义而言，“吸引了那些受乡村音乐男子气概束缚的人：‘我们是开卡车、喝啤酒、大胸脯的美国人，我们非常热爱自由，不会因为任何小病毒让我们戴上口罩’”。 对于特朗普主义和英国脱欧支持率激增代表一种新现象的争议观点，政治学家斯滕纳（英语：Karen Stenner）和社会心理学家海特提出的论点是：“看似‘凭空出现’的极右民粹主义浪潮事实上并非凭空出现。它不是一种突然的疯狂、或病毒、或浪潮，甚至只不过是一种模仿现象——别人的选举成功使偏执狂和暴君胆大妄为。而且，它是存在于任何人类社会表面之下的东西——即便是西方世界核心的先进自由民主国家中——并且可以被自由民主本身的核心要素激活”。在他们讨论关于触发这种浪潮的结论的统计基础时，他们提出了这样的观点：“威权主义者，就其本质而言，希望相信当局和机构；他们希望感到自己是一个有凝聚力的社群的一部分。因此，他们似乎（如果有的话）适度地倾向于给当局和机构以怀疑的好处，并给予他们支持，直到这些机构似乎无法维持‘规范的秩序’为止”。作者指出，这种规范的秩序经常受到自由民主本身的威胁，因为后者容忍群体价值和信仰缺乏共识，容忍对群体权威的不尊重，容忍不遵守群体规范或被证明有问题的规范，而且总的来说，自由民主制促进多样性和不受当局支配的自由。斯滕纳和海特认为这种威权主义浪潮是自由民主制国家的一个特征，并指出他们于2016年对特朗普和英国脱欧支持者的研究结果并不出人意料。“在二十年的实证研究中，我们想不出有什么明显的例外，那就是规范性的威胁往往要么让非威权主义者完全不为能催化威权主义者的事情所动，要么推动他们成为（人们可能设想的）‘最好的自己’。在以前的调查中，我们看到在威权主义者走向越来越不宽容的条件下，非威权主义者在走向更多的宽容和尊重多样性的立场”。 根据2016年的大选出口民调，26%的选民自认是白人福音派基督徒，这些人也成为了特朗普支持者的重要组成部分。皮尤研究中心2017年的分析报告指出，超过四分之三的白人福音派人士认可特朗普的表现，其中大部分人非常认可。 神学家霍顿（英语：Michael Horton (theologian)）认为基督教特朗普主义一词代表了三种趋势的汇合，即基督教美国主义（美国例外论）、末世阴谋派及成功神学派。其中基督教美国主义是指上帝特别敬重美国，认为美国是一个非同寻常的国家的叙事；而末世阴谋则是指由于一些邪恶集团和全球主义势力密谋威胁美国主权，进而试图毁灭世界（这里毁灭世界既可以是象征性的，也可以是实在性的）。霍顿认为，他所说的“基督教特朗普主义异端”除了包含这三种成分外，还包含“大量的胡编乱造（英语：hucksterism）、自我宣传和个人崇拜”。 福音派基督教徒兼史学家费亚认为“教会对追求政治权力的警告已经有很长很长的时间了”，但许多现代福音教徒，如特朗普顾问、电视传道者宝拉·怀特却无视这些告诫。电视传道者巴克尔（英语：Jim Bakker）以怀特可以“随时走进白宫”、“完全可以接触到国王”表扬怀特。费亚称，还有几位“法庭福音派”人士奉献自己的职业生涯为那些他们认为是恢复国家犹太-基督教根基的政治候选人和最高法院大法官的背书，而他们又被特朗普号召向追随者解释为什么尽管特朗普有道德上的缺陷，但还是可以信任，这其中包括多布森（英语：James Dobson）、葛福臨、穆尔（英语：Johnnie Moore Jr.）、里德（英语：Ralph Reed）、鲍尔（英语：Gary Bauer）、兰德（英语：Richard Land）、大教堂牧师伯恩斯（英语：Mark Burns (pastor)）及南方浸信会牧师，福克斯电视台的政治评论家杰夫里斯（英语：Robert Jeffress）。对于不支持特朗普的知名基督徒来说，其代价不是简单地失去与总统交谈的机会，同样他们面临着遭受批评的巨大风险。福音派旗舰杂志《今日基督教》的总裁达尔林普尔（英语：Timothy Dalrymple）和前总编辑加利（英语：Mark Galli）就是这一趋势的受害者，他们因共同撰写了一封认为基督徒有义务支持弹劾特朗普的信而受到200多位福音派领导人的谴责。 史学家耶格回顾直至11世纪的历史，并告诫人们不要成为宗教朝臣，他一并警告说，如果圣人对“国家事务的兴趣过于浓厚”，就会受到诅咒，不得进入天堂。他在著作中具体阐述关于12世纪的法国教士、神学家和廷臣，“知道宫廷生活是灵魂的死亡”的布卢瓦的彼得对宫廷神职人员的危险的描述。尽管他们知道参与宫廷活动是“违背上帝和救赎”的，但教士们用大量的理由来粉饰它，如圣经中提到的摩西被上帝派往法老那里。教皇庇護二世反对神职人员出现在宫廷中，他认为一个基督徒朝臣很难“控制野心，抑制贪婪，驯服嫉妒、争斗、愤怒，并断绝恶习，同时站在这些（非常）事物的中间”。费亚讲述了关于权力对神圣领袖的黑暗腐蚀的警告及其古老的历史，他直接将其与特朗普的宫廷福音派领袖的行为相提并论，警告说基督徒“将我们神圣的希望寄托在政治领袖身上，有把他们变成偶像的危险”。 杰夫里斯声称，尽管《今日基督教》的主编称特朗普为“一个在道德上迷失和困惑的人的近乎完美的例子”，福音派领导人仍应在道义上支持特朗普。杰夫里斯认为，“这里的敬虔原则是政府具有责任——即《罗马书第十三章（英语：Romans 13）》中所说的要惩罚作恶者”。塞申斯也用圣经这一章节来宣称将儿童与移民家庭分开的政策在圣经上具有合理性。史学家马勒解释道，这是自美国建国以来，一直在美国的政治辩论中对《罗马书》第13章的两类解释之一，这类解释站在“美国历史的主线上，以法律和秩序的名义为压迫和统治的一方辩护”。 特朗普主义与林肯的思想在许多方面有不同，具体包括自由贸易、移民、平等、联邦政府的制衡以及政教分离。WZB柏林社会科学中心（英语：WZB Berlin Social Science Center）的卡岑施泰因（英语：Peter J. Katzenstein）认为特朗普主义的三个支柱分别是民族主义、宗教和种族。 古德温（英语：Jeff Goodwin）认为，特朗普主义的关键点有五点：社会保守主义、新自由主義资本主义、經濟民族主義、本土主义及白人民族主義。 2021年的保守政治行動會議上，特朗普本人给出了他对特朗普主义的定义： “特朗普主义意味着很多东西……意味着美國－墨西哥－加拿大協議取代灾难性的北美自由贸易协议……意味着低税率和取消会减少就业的法规……意味着强大的边境，保证进入我们国家的人们同样伟大……意味着街道上没有暴乱……意味着执法……意味着对第二修正案和持枪权的有力保护……意味着强大的军队及对退伍老兵的有力保障”。 学者米德（英语：Walter Russell Mead）、卡岑施泰因及莫里斯认为，特朗普主义的根源可以追溯到傑克遜民主时代。学者劳奇威（英语：Eric Rauchway）认为：“特朗普主义—排外主義和白人優越主義—在美国历史中根深蒂固。但特朗普本人为它们赋予了新的而且更坏的目的。” 安德鲁·杰克逊的支持者认为安德鲁·杰克逊是他们中的一员，进而积极地支持他在19世纪蔑视政治正確的行为，甚至藐视美国宪法。安德鲁·杰克逊无视美国最高法院在伍斯特诉乔治亚州（英语：Worcester v. Georgia）中作出的判决，強行逼遷切诺基人以將他們的土地劃分給白人，遷徙過程中更導致2000至6000名族人死亡。尽管杰克逊主义有这样不人道的案例，但米德更多的认为，杰克逊主义为解释特朗普的追随者运动提供了历史先例，它将基层对精英的蔑视、对海外纠葛的深深怀疑以及对美国权力和主权的痴迷融为一体，导致它常常是一场仇外的、“唯白人”的政治运动。米德认为这种“美国对杰克逊式人物的饥渴”促使追随者向特朗普靠拢。但米德同时提醒称，从历史上看“特朗普不是安德鲁·杰克逊的第二次降临”，米德进一步解释经过观察“特朗普的建议往往相当模糊，而且常常自相矛盾”，表现出新当选的民粹主义领导人的共同弱点。在特朗普于2016年当选后不久米德就评论道“特朗普的问题是‘如何施政？’” 莫里斯与米德看法相同，同样指出特朗普主义的根源在于安德鲁·杰克逊、范布伦及波尔克几人于1828至1848年的任期。莫里斯认为，特朗普主义与一战后的美国进步主义（英语：Progressivism in the United States）也有相似点，同时它也迎合了保守派民粹主义对国际大都市的松散道德和美国不断变化的种族肤色的反感。在《改革时代（英语：The Age of Reform）》一书中，史学家霍夫施塔特将这类派系的出现归结为“其进步-民粹主义传统的很大一部分已经变质，变得不自由并且病态的情绪化。” 二战前，就有类似特朗普主义的运动被多次发起，例如20世纪初的美国优先运动，二战后这一潮流逐渐向共和党中的老右派（英语：Old Right (United States)）靠拢。1990年代这种思潮又被称作旧保守主义。莫里斯认为特朗普将旧保守主义重塑成了特朗普主义。1949年，洛文塔尔（英语：Leo Löwenthal）在《欺骗的先知（英语：Prophets of Deceit）》一书中总结了这些民粹主义边缘地带所表达的共同叙事，尤其是其中发挥重要作用的煽动者（英语：demagogues）。史学家克拉韦认为这本书的煽动者观点很好的概括了当今特朗普主义所代表的传播媒体与破坏性政治风格相结合后的意识形态及其所带来的政治运动。 《紐約客》的新闻工作者莱曼（英语：Nicholas Lemann）指出战后的共和党人的意识形态趋向于融合主义（英语：fusionism），即原本属于民主党的亲商业的建制思想，包括排外主義、不干涉主义（英语：United States non-interventionism）逐渐被转变至共和党一派，并与冷战中及冷战后基督教福音派“对世俗主义崛起的警戒”和“对共产主义传播的仇视及同仇敌忾”相融合。《政客》上的一篇文章认为特朗普主义是麦卡锡主义之流。 由巴克利所倡导，并最终被里根于1980年所实现后，融合主义随着苏联解体逐渐消融，取而代之的是不平等（英语：Income inequality in the United States）及全球化，这在共和党内外引起了中低收入白人的重大不满。2012年美國總統選舉后，羅姆尼被奥巴马击败后，共和党建制派接受了一份名为增长与机遇项目的“解剖”报告，这份报告呼吁共和党重申其亲市场、怀疑政府、在种族和文化上包容的身份。特朗普在竞选中无视报告的结论和党内建制，他“受到本党官员的反对……比美国近代史上任何一位总统候选人都多”，但与此同时，他在共和党初选中赢得的选票却比以往任何一位总统候选人都多。到了2016年，用政治分析家羅夫的话说，趋势已经演变成了“人们希望有人把砖头扔进一扇平板玻璃窗”。他在党内的成功达到了这样的程度：2020年10月的一项民意调查发现，58%的共和党人和倾向于共和党的独立调查对象认为自己是特朗普的支持者，而不是共和党的支持者。 中国政法大学的庞金友在《当代美国评论》中认为，美国种族结构变化引起的白人比例下降和伴随制造业外流带来中下层情况的恶化增加了政治极化也增强了特朗普在共和党选民中的支持率。 特朗普主張美國優先，外交上倾向于單邊主義而非多邊主義，在经济条约和联盟义务方面特别强调国家利益。特朗普对加拿大以及北约和欧盟表现出不屑一顾的态度。特朗普還有一个特点是認同独裁统治者，尤其是俄罗斯总统普京，例如在其就任總統前和2018年美俄峰会期间，特朗普经常称赞他。美国优先的外交政策包括特朗普承诺停止美国参与对外战争，尤其是中东战争（英语：United States foreign policy in the Middle East）（如阿富汗战争），同时还通过制裁伊朗等国家以发布更严格的外交政策。 在经济方面，特朗普承诺提供新的就业机会和更多国内投资。同時特朗普盡可能地減少美國出口的貿易逆差，這导致2018年美国對歐盟和中國征收高額關稅，最後中美之間爆發中美貿易戰。特朗普极力强调民族主义，批评全球化的政策，确保其政治基本盘的支持。《身份危机：2016年总统竞选和美国意义之战》一书中认为特朗普的“激进（英语：Radicalization）经济学”向他的白人工薪阶层到中产阶级选民群体通过宣传“德不配位的少数族裔群体在进步，而他们的群体却被抛在后面”这一观念。 特朗普主義不單獲得白人的支持，美國的黑人、拉丁裔和亞裔群體間都有支持者，美國國外亦出現了具規模的特朗普主義擁護者或團體，例如日本的網絡右翼和新興宗教幸福科學等。 《艾伯特利论坛报（英语：Albert Lea Tribune）》对2020年9月13日举行的“联合起来我们得以生存&美国爱国者游行”的描述为“圣保罗周六，人群于明尼苏达州国会大厦外聚集以支持总统特朗普，并反对关于COVID-19的州防疫政策，这些人说防疫措施是侵犯个人自由和破坏经济。人群中有些人手持长枪，身穿防弹衣。”抗议者与反抗议者有肢体冲突，且最终有两名反抗议者被逮捕。 因相信2020年美国总统大选受操纵的阴谋论，特朗普的支持者要求“停止偷窃选票”（英语：Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election），并最终在特朗普要求他们“要激烈的战斗”、“夺回我们的国家”及朱利安尼要求“比武审判”，及此前特朗普的儿子称“我们是为了你们而来”及“[对选举的]总体战”后冲入了美国国会大厦 帕帕查里西指出，左翼中与公众进行情感上的接触时也可以找到使用开放符号的例子。 许多学者做出了类似的比较，耶鲁大学的哲学教授贾森·斯坦利（英语：Jason Stanley）更进一步，称尽管观察到特朗普不是法西斯，“我觉得你可以正式的称特朗普主义是一种法西斯主义的社会及政治运动”，并且称“特朗普正在使用法西斯式的政治策略，我认为这点毫无疑问。他呼吁面对移民，自由主义者，自由主义少数群体和左翼主义者的屈辱，要求恢复民族性。他绝对在玩法西斯剧本”。哲学家韦斯特也认为特朗普有法西斯主义倾向，并称他的受欢迎程度标志着新法西斯主義正在取代美国的新自由主義。哈佛大学历史学家克拉韦认为法蘭克福學派的作者（霍克海默、阿多诺及马尔库塞）通过研究德国法西斯的突然胜利提供了对特朗普主义的最佳见解。德国法西斯与特朗普主义的相似之处包括：自我吹嘘、受害、指责的言论，以及要求人们无条件地支持他的领导且称只有这样才能使国家摆脱道德和政治上的堕落。 历史、心理学及人类学领域的学者戴维·史密斯更进一步地比较了特朗普与莫尼-克尔（英语：Roger Money-Kyrle）所描述的法西斯主义劝说模式的相似之处，莫尼-克尔是20世纪30年代德国的法西斯主义集会的见证者。这些相似点包括：领导人和支持者在大规模集会中的心理联系，忧郁症-偏执狂-自大狂模式，背诵共同的本土恐惧，宣传制造恐惧的阴谋论，将外围群体描绘成问题的原因，以绝对的术语提出简化的解决方案，以及宣传一个能够使国家恢复到以前伟大状态的单一领导人。 被称为“在特朗普之前研究特朗普基本盘的社会学家”，基梅尔（英语：Michael Kimmel）研究了特朗普前支持者的男性气质和激进化之间的关系。在他2018年出版的《从仇恨中疗伤：年轻人如何进入——再离开——暴力极端主义》一书中，基梅尔描述了这些男性的一套主题思想，他“一开始称之为‘委屈的权利’”，一种义愤填膺的感觉，在一个被政治正确性所支配的世界中，突然无愧于受害者的感觉。这些白人男子认为，他们一生都在按别人制定的规则行事，所得到的回报突然间枯竭了，或者说，在他们看来，蛋糕被转给了更不值得的“其他人”，而这些人“不配得到他们现在所得到的回报，因为‘他们’不是‘真正的男人’”。 牌子上的标签“#WWG1WGA”代表QAnon的座右铭“你不是一個人在戰鬥”。 庞金友. 大变局时代保守主义向何处去:特朗普主义与美国保守政治的未来. 《当代美国评论》. 2019年, (第4期) [2020-12-05]. （原始内容存档于2021-04-22）.  滕建群. 论美国特朗普主义的兴起与影响 (PDF). 《和平与发展》. 2020年, (第6期) [2024-06-11]. （原始内容存档 (PDF)于2024-06-18）.  李伟东. 特朗普留给美国的“特朗普主义”. 中国战略分析杂志社. 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