攻勢現實主義

攻勢現實主義（英語：offensive realism），又译为「进攻性现实主义」，是美國政治學家約翰·米爾斯海默首先提出的新現實主義學派中之理論結構，認為國際體系中的無政府狀態要對國際政治中國家層面的侵略性行為負責。它從根本上不同於肯尼思·沃爾茲提出的守勢現實主義。這個理論主張大國的權力最大化，通過卸責（英语：Buck passing）和平衡（英语：Balancing (international relations)）策略，最終達到主宰國際體系。該理論為研究和理解國際關係做出了重要貢獻。 攻勢現實主義是屬於國際關係現實主義學派的一個重要理論，其中的代表性人物包括羅伯特·吉爾平、蘭德爾·施韋勒、樂伯斯(Eric J. Labs)和法里德·扎卡利亞，他們都以各自的觀點提出了這個理論。然而到目前為止，公認的對攻勢現實主義詮釋最準確完整的是約翰·米爾斯海默，他在他的著作《大國政治的悲劇》一書中充分詮釋了這個理論。雖然米爾斯海默重申其的攻勢現實主義理論是以古典現實主義（英语：Classical realism (international relations)）者所闡述的某些假設為基礎，但其將實證主義作為其研究手法，以國際政治中國家的行為為研究基礎，將其作為該理論的中心，從而又和傳統的現實主義理論大有不同。也囙此，他的攻勢現實主義又和結構現實主義的一些其他支論相似，如守勢現實主義。 該理論基於五個核心假設，類似於肯尼思·沃爾茲的守勢現實主義的核心假設。其為： 大國是世界政治的主要角色，國際體系是無政府狀態的 所有強權都擁有進攻性的軍事實力 各國永遠無法確定其他國家的意圖 各國都以生存為主要目標 國家是理性的行為者，能够提出最大化其生存前景的合理戰略 與守勢現實主義一樣，攻勢現實主義主張國際體系為無政府狀態，在這個體系中，理性大國始終無法確定其他國家的意圖，並且能够發動軍事進攻，以求生存。儘管米爾斯海默最初是從類似主張中發展而來的，但其攻勢現實主義對國際政治中的大國行為提出了截然不同的預測。其主要是在權力積累方面和守勢現實主義相背，認為國家需要不停地採取舉措確保國家的安全並建立戰略維持國家保證自身安全的能力。最終，米爾斯海默的攻勢現實主義繪製了一幅更加悲觀的國際政治圖景，其特點是危險的國家間競爭可能導致衝突和戰爭。 约翰·米尔斯海默的进攻性现实主义旨在纠正肯尼斯·华尔兹的防御性现实主义的“现状偏见”。虽然这两种新现实主义变体都认为，国家主要关心的是最大限度地提高自身的安全，但他们在这一过程中所需的权力数量上存在分歧。与防御性现实主义相反，根据防御性现实主义，国家是维持现状的大国，只寻求通过维持普遍的权力平衡来维持各自在国际体系中的地位，进攻性现实主义声称，国家实际上是权力最大化的修正主义者，怀有侵略意图。事实上，在进攻性现实主义中，国际体系为大国提供了强有力的动机，促使它们采取进攻性行动，以加强其安全并确保其生存。 事实上，以无政府状态为特征的国际体系（缺乏一个能够执行规则和惩罚侵略者的中央当局）以及国家意图和现有进攻性军事能力的不确定性，导致各国不断相互恐惧，并诉诸自助（self-help）机制来维持生存为了减轻彼此对侵略的恐惧，各国总是寻求最大限度地发挥其在物质能力方面的相对力量。正如米尔斯海默所说：“他们寻找机会，通过以潜在对手为代价获得额外的权力增量来改变权力平衡”因为“一个国家比其他国家拥有的军事优势越大，越是安全”，“国家寻求增加军事力量，损害体系内其他国家的利益，霸权是国家体系中唯一的大国，是他们的最终目标。” 约翰·米尔斯海默将这一观点概括如下：“大国认识到，确保其安全的最佳途径是现在就实现霸权，从而消除另一大国挑战的任何可能性。只有一个被误导的国家才会放弃在这个体系中成为霸权的机会，因为它认为自己已经拥有足够的权力来生存。”因此，像米尔斯海默这样的进攻性新现实主义者认为，一个国家提高其相对权力以实现霸权的最佳战略是依靠进攻性战术。如果这些大国采取侵略行动是合理的，它们就可能奉行扩张主义政策，这将使它们更接近霸权。由于权力跨洋投射和报复势力的制约，全球霸权几乎不可能实现，各国希望达到的最佳结局状态是，一个地区霸主统治自己的地理区域。这种对权力的不懈追求，内在地产生了一种“持续的安全竞争，战争的可能性总是存在”的背景下，只有当地区霸权获得时，大国才会成为现状国家。 大國政治的悲劇 離岸制衡 Toft, Peter. 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