Asymptotics of Bayesian Uncertainty Estimation in Random Features Regression
Main Conference Track
Authors: Youngsoo Baek, Samuel Berchuck, Sayan Mukherjee

In this paper we compare and contrast the behavior of the posterior predictive distribution to the risk of the the maximum a posteriori estimator for the random features regression model in the overparameterized regime.  We will focus on the variance of the  posterior predictive distribution (Bayesian model average) and compare its asymptotics to that of the risk of the MAP estimator. In the regime where the model dimensions grow faster than any constant multiple of the number of samples, asymptotic agreement between these two quantities is governed by the phase transition in the signal-to-noise ratio. They also asymptotically agree with each other when the number of samples grow faster than any constant multiple of model dimensions. Numerical simulations illustrate finer distributional properties of the two quantities for finite dimensions. We conjecture they have Gaussian fluctuations and exhibit similar properties as found by previous authors in a Gaussian sequence model, this is of independent theoretical interest.