new version of the paper.

git-svn-id: svn://svn.r-forge.r-project.org/svnroot/riskassessment@267 edb9625f-4e0d-4859-8d74-9fd3b1da38cb
git-svn-id: svn://svn.r-forge.r-project.org/svnroot/riskassessment@268 edb9625f-4e0d-4859-8d74-9fd3b1da38cb