Print nice error in bin/elasticsearch if user needs to run maven

Before, people that cloned the repo and expected to be able to run
bin/elasticsearch would be met with an awful shell error: the shell
interprets Maven variables like ${project.build.finalName} as shell
variables yet can't handle names of the form ${x.y}. This commit
explicitly checks to make sure that Maven has done its substitutions
before continuing; if Maven hasn't been run, it gives a helpful error
message.

Fixes #2954.