Patent ID: 10634803

Abstract:
A method for using microseismic data during an injection or perforation event includes injecting fluid or perforating a well to create cracks in the formation. Microseismic data is obtained from the formation and forward modelling source parameter estimations are performed using a full moment tensor space source model and a double-couple source model. Likelihoods of the microseismic data are calculated for each model type by forward modelling synthetic data from a sampled source parameter probability distribution derived from each estimation, and by comparing the synthetic data with the microseismic data. The likelihoods are marginalized over prior probabilities for the source models, and Bayesian inference converts the likelihoods and prior probabilities to posterior probabilities. The posterior probabilities for the full tensor space and double-couple source models are compared to reveal whether an event is a fracture opening, fracture closing, or a slip on a fault plane.