Kaggle competition: COVID19 Global Forecasting (Week 4)
<SOS> metric: MCRMSLE Kaggle data source: covid19-global-forecasting-(week-4)<data_type_conversions>
pd.options.display.max_rows = 500
pd.options.display.max_columns = 500
%matplotlib inline
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
 def rmse(yt, yp):
return np.sqrt(np.mean(( yt-yp)**2))
class CovidModel:
def __init__(self):
pass
def predict_first_day(self, date):
return None
def predict_next_day(self, yesterday_pred_df):
return None
class CovidModelAhmet(CovidModel):
def preprocess(self, df, meta_df):
df["Date"] = pd.to_datetime(df['Date'])
 df = df.merge(meta_df, on=self.loc_group, how="left")
 df["lat"] =(df["lat"] // 30 ).astype(np.float32 ).fillna(0)
 df["lon"] =(df["lon"] // 60 ).astype(np.float32 ).fillna(0)
 df["population"] = np.log1p(df["population"] ).fillna(-1)
 df["area"] = np.log1p(df["area"] ).fillna(-1)
 for col in self.loc_group:
df[col].fillna("", inplace=True)
 df['day'] = df.Date.dt.dayofyear
df['geo'] = ['_'.join(x)for x in zip(df['Country_Region'], df['Province_State'])]
return df
def get_model(self):
def nn_block(input_layer, size, dropout_rate, activation):
out_layer = KL.Dense(size, activation=None )(input_layer)
 out_layer = KL.Activation(activation )(out_layer)
 out_layer = KL.Dropout(dropout_rate )(out_layer)
 return out_layer
ts_inp = KL.Input(shape=(len(self.ts_features),))
global_inp = KL.Input(shape=(len(self.global_features),))
inp = KL.concatenate([global_inp, ts_inp])
 hidden_layer = nn_block(inp, 64, 0.0, "relu")
 gate_layer = nn_block(hidden_layer, 32, 0.0, "sigmoid")
 hidden_layer = nn_block(hidden_layer, 32, 0.0, "relu")
 hidden_layer = KL.multiply([hidden_layer, gate_layer])
 out = KL.Dense(len(self.TARGETS), activation="linear" )(hidden_layer)
 model = tf.keras.models.Model(inputs=[global_inp, ts_inp], outputs=out)
 return model
def get_input(self, df):
return [df[self.global_features], df[self.ts_features]]
def train_models(self, df, num_models=20, save=False):
def custom_loss(y_true, y_pred):
return K.sum(K.sqrt(K.sum(K.square(y_true - y_pred), axis=0, keepdims=True)))/len(self.TARGETS)
 models = []
for i in range(num_models):
model = self.get_model()
model.compile(loss=custom_loss, optimizer=Nadam(lr=1e-4))
hist = model.fit(self.get_input(df), df[self.TARGETS],
batch_size=2048, epochs=200, verbose=0, shuffle=True)
 if save:
model.save_weights("model{}.h5".format(i))
models.append(model)
 return models
def predict_one(self, df):
pred = np.zeros(( df.shape[0], 2))
for model in self.models:
pred += model.predict(self.get_input(df)) /len(self.models)
 pred = np.maximum(pred, df[self.prev_targets].values)
 pred[:, 0] = np.log1p(np.expm1(pred[:, 0])+ 0.1)
 pred[:, 1] = np.log1p(np.expm1(pred[:, 1])+ 0.01)
 return np.clip(pred, None, 15)
 def __init__(self):
df = pd.read_csv(".. /input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-4/train.csv")
 sub_df = pd.read_csv(".. /input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-4/test.csv")
 meta_df = pd.read_csv(".. /input/covid19-forecasting-metadata/region_metadata.csv")
 self.loc_group = ["Province_State", "Country_Region"]
df = self.preprocess(df, meta_df)
 sub_df = self.preprocess(sub_df, meta_df)
 df = df.merge(sub_df[["ForecastId", "Date", "geo"]], how="left", on=["Date", "geo"])
 df = df.append(sub_df[sub_df["Date"] > df["Date"].max() ], sort=False)
 df["day"] = df["day"] - df["day"].min()
self.TARGETS = ["ConfirmedCases", "Fatalities"]
self.prev_targets = ['prev_ConfirmedCases_1', 'prev_Fatalities_1']
for col in self.TARGETS:
df[col] = np.log1p(df[col])
 self.NUM_SHIFT = 7
self.global_features = ["lat", "lon", "population", "area"]
self.ts_features = []
for s in range(1, self.NUM_SHIFT+1):
for col in self.TARGETS:
df["prev_{}_{}".format(col, s)] = df.groupby(self.loc_group)[col].shift(s)
 self.ts_features.append("prev_{}_{}".format(col, s))
self.df = df[df["Date"] >= df["Date"].min() + timedelta(days=self.NUM_SHIFT)].copy()
def predict_first_day(self, day):
self.models = self.train_models(self.df[self.df["day"] < day])
 temp_df = self.df.loc[self.df["day"] == day].copy()
y_pred = self.predict_one(temp_df)
 self.y_prevs = [None]*self.NUM_SHIFT
for i in range(1, self.NUM_SHIFT):
self.y_prevs[i] = temp_df[['prev_ConfirmedCases_{}'.format(i), 'prev_Fatalities_{}'.format(i)]].values
temp_df[self.TARGETS] = y_pred
self.day = day
return temp_df[["geo", "day"] + self.TARGETS]
def predict_next_day(self, yesterday_pred_df):
self.day = self.day + 1
temp_df = self.df.loc[self.df["day"] == self.day].copy()
yesterday_pred_df = temp_df[["geo"]].merge(yesterday_pred_df[["geo"] + self.TARGETS], on="geo", how="left")
 temp_df[self.prev_targets] = yesterday_pred_df[self.TARGETS].values
for i in range(2, self.NUM_SHIFT+1):
temp_df[['prev_ConfirmedCases_{}'.format(i), 'prev_Fatalities_{}'.format(i)]] = self.y_prevs[i-1]
y_pred, self.y_prevs = self.predict_one(temp_df), [None, temp_df[self.prev_targets].values] + self.y_prevs[1:-1]
temp_df[self.TARGETS] = y_pred
return temp_df[["geo", "day"] + self.TARGETS]
content_explation_agg.content_id=content_explation_agg.content_id.astype('int16')
 content_explation_agg.content_explation_false_mean=content_explation_agg.content_explation_false_mean.astype('float16')
 content_explation_agg.content_explation_true_mean=content_explation_agg.content_explation_true_mean.astype('float16' )<train_model>
class CovidModelCPMP(CovidModel):
def __init__(self):
train = pd.read_csv('.. /input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-4/train.csv')
 train['Province_State'].fillna('', inplace=True)
 train['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(train['Date'])
 train['day'] = train.Date.dt.dayofyear
train['geo'] = ['_'.join(x)for x in zip(train['Country_Region'], train['Province_State'])]
test = pd.read_csv('.. /input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-4/test.csv')
 test['Province_State'].fillna('', inplace=True)
 test['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(test['Date'])
 test['day'] = test.Date.dt.dayofyear
test['geo'] = ['_'.join(x)for x in zip(test['Country_Region'], test['Province_State'])]
day_min = train['day'].min()
train['day'] -= day_min
test['day'] -= day_min
self.min_test_val_day = test.day.min()
self.max_test_val_day = train.day.max()
self.max_test_day = test.day.max()
train['ForecastId'] = -1
test['Id'] = -1
test['ConfirmedCases'] = 0
test['Fatalities'] = 0
data = pd.concat([train,
test[test.day > self.max_test_val_day][train.columns]
] ).reset_index(drop=True)
 self.data = data
self.train = train
self.test = test
self.dates = data[data['geo'] == 'France_'].Date.values
region_meta = pd.read_csv('.. /input/covid19-forecasting-metadata/region_metadata.csv')
 region_meta['Province_State'].fillna('', inplace=True)
 region_meta['geo'] = ['_'.join(x)for x in zip(region_meta['Country_Region'], region_meta['Province_State'],)]
population = data[['geo']].merge(region_meta, how='left', on='geo' ).fillna(0)
 population = population.groupby('geo')[['population']].first()
population['population'] = np.log1p(population['population'])
 self.population = population[['population']].values
continents = region_meta['continent']
continents = pd.factorize(continents)[0]
continents_ids_base = continents.reshape(( -1, 1))
ohe = OneHotEncoder(sparse=False)
 self.continents_ids_base = ohe.fit_transform(continents_ids_base)
 self.geo_data = data.pivot(index='geo', columns='day', values='ForecastId')
 self.num_geo = self.geo_data.shape[0]
self.ConfirmedCases = data.pivot(index='geo', columns='day', values='ConfirmedCases')
 self.Fatalities = data.pivot(index='geo', columns='day', values='Fatalities')
 self.cases = np.log1p(self.ConfirmedCases.values)
 self.deaths = np.log1p(self.Fatalities.values)
 self.case_threshold = 30
self.c_case = 10
self.t_case = 100
self.c_death = 10
self.t_death = 5
time_cases = self.c_case *(self.cases >= np.log1p(self.t_case))
time_cases = np.cumsum(time_cases, axis=1)
 self.time_cases = 1 * np.log1p(time_cases)
 time_deaths = self.c_death *(self.deaths >= np.log1p(self.t_death))
time_deaths = np.cumsum(time_deaths, axis=1)
 self.time_deaths = 1 *np.log1p(time_deaths)
 countries = [g.split('_')[0] for g in self.geo_data.index]
countries = pd.factorize(countries)[0]
country_ids_base = countries.reshape(( -1, 1))
ohe = OneHotEncoder(sparse=False)
 self.country_ids_base = 0.2 * ohe.fit_transform(country_ids_base)
 self.start_lag_death = 13
self.end_lag_death = 5
self.num_train = 5
self.num_lag_case = 14
self.lag_period = max(self.start_lag_death, self.num_lag_case)
 self.df = train[['geo', 'day', 'ConfirmedCases', 'Fatalities']].copy()
self.df.ConfirmedCases = np.log1p(self.df.ConfirmedCases)
 self.df.Fatalities = np.log1p(self.df.Fatalities)
 def get_country_ids(self):
countries = [g.split('_')[0] for g in self.geo_data.index]
countries = pd.factorize(countries)[0]
countries[self.cases[:, :self.last_train+1].max(axis=1)< np.log1p(self.case_threshold)] = -1
countries = pd.factorize(countries)[0]
country_ids_base = countries.reshape(( -1, 1))
ohe = OneHotEncoder(sparse=False)
 country_ids_base = 0.2 * ohe.fit_transform(country_ids_base)
 return country_ids_base
def val_score(self, true, pred):
return np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(true.ravel() , pred.ravel()))
def get_dataset(self, start_pred, num_train):
days = np.arange(start_pred - num_train + 1, start_pred + 1)
 lag_cases = np.vstack([self.cases[:, d - self.lag_period : d] for d in days])
 lag_deaths = np.vstack([self.deaths[:, d - self.lag_period : d] for d in days])
 target_cases = np.vstack([self.cases[:, d : d + 1] for d in days])
 target_deaths = np.vstack([self.deaths[:, d : d + 1] for d in days])
 continents_ids = np.vstack([self.continents_ids_base for d in days])
 country_ids = np.vstack([self.country_ids_base for d in days])
 population = np.vstack([self.population for d in days])
 time_case = np.vstack([self.time_cases[:, d - 1: d ] for d in days])
 time_death = np.vstack([self.time_deaths[:, d - 1 : d ] for d in days])
 return(lag_cases, lag_deaths, target_cases, target_deaths,
continents_ids, country_ids, population, time_case, time_death, days)
 def update_time(self, time_death, time_case, pred_death, pred_case):
new_time_death = np.expm1(time_death)+ self.c_death *(pred_death >= np.log1p(self.t_death))
new_time_death = 1 *np.log1p(new_time_death)
 new_time_case = np.expm1(time_case)+ self.c_case *(pred_case >= np.log1p(self.t_case))
new_time_case = 1 *np.log1p(new_time_case)
 return new_time_death, new_time_case
def update_valid_dataset(self, dataset, pred_death, pred_case, pred_day): 
(lag_cases, lag_deaths, target_cases, target_deaths,
continents_ids, country_ids, population, time_case, time_death, days)= dataset
if pred_day != days[-1]:
print('error', pred_day, days[-1])
 return None
day = days[-1] + 1
new_lag_cases = np.hstack([lag_cases[:, 1:], pred_case])
 new_lag_deaths = np.hstack([lag_deaths[:, 1:], pred_death])
 new_target_cases = self.cases[:, day:day+1]
new_target_deaths = self.deaths[:, day:day+1]
new_continents_ids = continents_ids
new_country_ids = country_ids
new_population = population
new_time_death, new_time_case = self.update_time(time_death, time_case, pred_death, pred_case)
 new_days = 1 + days
return(new_lag_cases, new_lag_deaths, new_target_cases, new_target_deaths,
new_continents_ids, new_country_ids, new_population,
new_time_case, new_time_death, new_days)
 def fit_eval(self, dataset, fit): 
(lag_cases, lag_deaths, target_cases, target_deaths,
continents_ids, country_ids, population,
time_case, time_death, days)= dataset
X_death = np.hstack([lag_cases[:, -self.start_lag_death:-self.end_lag_death],
lag_deaths[:, -self.num_lag_case:],
country_ids,
continents_ids,
population,
time_case,
time_death,
])
 y_death = target_deaths
y_death_prev = lag_deaths[:, -1:]
if fit:
self.lr_death.fit(X_death, y_death)
 y_pred_death = self.lr_death.predict(X_death)
 y_pred_death = np.maximum(y_pred_death, y_death_prev)
 X_case = np.hstack([lag_cases[:, -self.num_lag_case:],
country_ids,
continents_ids,
population,
time_case,
])
 y_case = target_cases
y_case_prev = lag_cases[:, -1:]
if fit:
self.lr_case.fit(X_case, y_case)
 y_pred_case = self.lr_case.predict(X_case)
 y_pred_case = np.maximum(y_pred_case, y_case_prev)
 return y_pred_death, y_pred_case
def get_pred_df(self, val_death_preds, val_case_preds,):
pred_deaths = self.Fatalities.iloc[:, self.start_val:self.start_val+self.num_val].copy()
pred_deaths.iloc[:, :] = val_death_preds
pred_deaths = pred_deaths.stack().reset_index()
pred_deaths.columns = ['geo', 'day', 'Fatalities']
pred_deaths
pred_cases = self.ConfirmedCases.iloc[:, self.start_val:self.start_val+self.num_val].copy()
pred_cases.iloc[:, :] = val_case_preds
pred_cases = pred_cases.stack().reset_index()
pred_cases.columns = ['geo', 'day', 'ConfirmedCases']
pred_cases
sub = self.data[['geo', 'day']]
sub = sub[sub.day == self.start_val]
sub = sub.merge(pred_cases, how='left', on=['geo', 'day'])
 sub = sub.merge(pred_deaths, how='left', on=['geo', 'day'])
 sub = sub[(sub.day >= self.start_val)&(sub.day <= self.end_val)]
return sub
def predict_first_day(self, day):
self.start_val = day
self.end_val = day + 1
self.num_val = self.end_val - self.start_val + 1
score = True
self.last_train = self.start_val - 1
print(self.dates[self.last_train], self.start_val, self.num_val)
 self.country_ids_base = self.get_country_ids()
train_data = self.get_dataset(self.last_train, self.num_train)
 alpha = 3
self.lr_death = Ridge(alpha=alpha, fit_intercept=True)
 self.lr_case = Ridge(alpha=alpha, fit_intercept=True)
 _ = self.fit_eval(train_data, fit=True)
 self.valid_data = self.get_dataset(self.start_val, 1)
 val_death_preds, val_case_preds = self.fit_eval(self.valid_data, fit=False)
 df = self.get_pred_df(val_death_preds, val_case_preds)
 return df
def predict_next_day(self, yesterday_pred_df):
yesterday_pred_df = yesterday_pred_df.sort_values(by='geo' ).reset_index(drop=True)
 if yesterday_pred_df.day.nunique() != 1:
print('error', yesterday_pred_df.day.unique())
 return None
pred_death = yesterday_pred_df[['Fatalities']].values
pred_case = yesterday_pred_df[['ConfirmedCases']].values
pred_day = yesterday_pred_df.day.unique() [0]
new_valid_data = self.update_valid_dataset(self.valid_data,
pred_death, pred_case, pred_day)
 if len(new_valid_data)> 0:
self.valid_data = new_valid_data
self.start_val = pred_day + 1
self.end_val = pred_day + 2
val_death_preds, val_case_preds = self.fit_eval(self.valid_data, fit=False)
 df = self.get_pred_df(val_death_preds, val_case_preds)
 return df
print('start handle attempt_no...' )<data_type_conversions>
class CovidModel:
def __init__(self):
pass
def predict_first_day(self, date):
return None
def predict_next_day(self, yesterday_pred_df):
return None
class CovidModelGIBA(CovidModel):
def __init__(self, lag=1, seed=1):
self.lag = lag
self.seed = seed
print('Lag:', lag, 'Seed:', seed)
 train = pd.read_csv('.. /input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-4/train.csv')
 train['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(train['Date'])
 self.maxdate = str(train['Date'].max())[:10]
self.testdate = str(train['Date'].max() + pd.Timedelta(days=1)) [:10]
print('Last Date in Train:',self.maxdate, 'Test first Date:',self.testdate)
 train['Province_State'].fillna('', inplace=True)
 train['day'] = train.Date.dt.dayofyear
self.day_min = train['day'].min()
train['day'] -= self.day_min
train['geo'] = ['_'.join(x)for x in zip(train['Country_Region'], train['Province_State'])]
test = pd.read_csv('.. /input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-4/test.csv')
 test['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(test['Date'])
 test['Province_State'].fillna('', inplace=True)
 test['day'] = test.Date.dt.dayofyear
test['day'] -= self.day_min
test['geo'] = ['_'.join(x)for x in zip(test['Country_Region'], test['Province_State'])]
test['Id'] = -1
test['ConfirmedCases'] = 0
test['Fatalities'] = 0
self.trainmaxday = train['day'].max()
self.testday1 = train['day'].max() + 1
self.testdayN = test['day'].max()
publictest = test.loc[ test.Date > train.Date.max() ].copy()
train = pd.concat(( train, publictest), sort=False)
 train.sort_values(['Country_Region','Province_State','Date'], inplace=True)
 train = train.reset_index(drop=True)
 train['ForecastId'] = pd.merge(train, test, on=['Country_Region','Province_State','Date'], how='left')['ForecastId_y'].values
train['cid'] = train['Country_Region'] + '_' + train['Province_State']
train['log0'] = np.log1p(train['ConfirmedCases'])
 train['log1'] = np.log1p(train['Fatalities'])
 train = train.loc[(train.log0 > 0)|(train.ForecastId.notnull())|(train.Date >= '2020-03-17')].copy()
train = train.reset_index(drop=True)
 train['days_since_1case'] = train.groupby('cid')['Id'].cumcount()
dt = pd.read_csv('.. /input/covid19-lockdown-dates-by-country/countryLockdowndates.csv')
 dt.columns = ['Country_Region','Province_State','Date','Type','Reference']
dt = dt.loc[ dt.Date == dt.Date ]
dt['Province_State'] = dt['Province_State'].fillna('')
 dt['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(dt['Date'])
 dt['Date'] = dt['Date'] + pd.Timedelta(days=8)
 dt['Type'] = pd.factorize(dt['Type'])[0]
dt['cid'] = dt['Country_Region'] + '_' + dt['Province_State']
del dt['Reference'], dt['Country_Region'], dt['Province_State']
train = pd.merge(train, dt, on=['cid','Date'], how='left')
 train['Type'] = train.groupby('cid')['Type'].fillna(method='ffill')
 train['target0'] = np.log1p(train['ConfirmedCases'])
 train['target1'] = np.log1p(train['Fatalities'])
 self.train = train.copy()
def create_features(self, df, valid_day):
df = df.loc[ df.day>=(valid_day-50)].copy()
df['lag0_1'] = df.groupby('cid')['target0'].shift(self.lag)
 df['lag0_1'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag0_1'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['lag0_8'] = df.groupby('cid')['target0'].shift(8)
 df['lag0_8'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag0_8'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['lag1_1'] = df.groupby('cid')['target1'].shift(self.lag)
 df['lag1_1'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag1_1'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['m0'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag0_1'].rolling(2 ).mean().values
df['m1'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag0_1'].rolling(3 ).mean().values
df['m2'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag0_1'].rolling(4 ).mean().values
df['m3'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag0_1'].rolling(5 ).mean().values
df['m4'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag0_1'].rolling(7 ).mean().values
df['m5'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag0_1'].rolling(10 ).mean().values
df['m6'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag0_1'].rolling(12 ).mean().values
df['m7'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag0_1'].rolling(16 ).mean().values
df['m8'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag0_1'].rolling(20 ).mean().values
df['m9'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag0_1'].rolling(25 ).mean().values
df['n0'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag1_1'].rolling(2 ).mean().values
df['n1'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag1_1'].rolling(3 ).mean().values
df['n2'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag1_1'].rolling(4 ).mean().values
df['n3'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag1_1'].rolling(5 ).mean().values
df['n4'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag1_1'].rolling(7 ).mean().values
df['n5'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag1_1'].rolling(10 ).mean().values
df['n6'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag1_1'].rolling(12 ).mean().values
df['n7'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag1_1'].rolling(16 ).mean().values
df['n8'] = df.groupby('cid')['lag1_1'].rolling(20 ).mean().values
df['m0'] = df.groupby('cid')['m0'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['m1'] = df.groupby('cid')['m1'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['m2'] = df.groupby('cid')['m2'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['m3'] = df.groupby('cid')['m3'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['m4'] = df.groupby('cid')['m4'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['m5'] = df.groupby('cid')['m5'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['m6'] = df.groupby('cid')['m6'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['m7'] = df.groupby('cid')['m7'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['m8'] = df.groupby('cid')['m8'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['m9'] = df.groupby('cid')['m9'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['n0'] = df.groupby('cid')['n0'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['n1'] = df.groupby('cid')['n1'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['n2'] = df.groupby('cid')['n2'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['n3'] = df.groupby('cid')['n3'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['n4'] = df.groupby('cid')['n4'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['n5'] = df.groupby('cid')['n5'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['n6'] = df.groupby('cid')['n6'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['n7'] = df.groupby('cid')['n7'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['n8'] = df.groupby('cid')['n8'].fillna(method='bfill')
 df['flag_China'] = 1*(df['Country_Region'] == 'China')
 df['flag_US'] = 1*(df['Country_Region'] == 'US')
 df['flag_Kosovo_'] = 1*(df['cid'] == 'Kosovo_')
 df['flag_Korea'] = 1*(df['cid'] == 'Korea, South_')
 df['flag_Nepal_'] = 1*(df['cid'] == 'Nepal_')
 df['flag_Holy See_'] = 1*(df['cid'] == 'Holy See_')
 df['flag_Suriname_'] = 1*(df['cid'] == 'Suriname_')
 df['flag_Ghana_'] = 1*(df['cid'] == 'Ghana_')
 df['flag_Togo_'] = 1*(df['cid'] == 'Togo_')
 df['flag_Malaysia_'] = 1*(df['cid'] == 'Malaysia_')
 df['flag_US_Rhode'] = 1*(df['cid'] == 'US_Rhode Island')
 df['flag_Bolivia_'] = 1*(df['cid'] == 'Bolivia_')
 df['flag_China_Tib'] = 1*(df['cid'] == 'China_Tibet')
 df['flag_Bahrain_'] = 1*(df['cid'] == 'Bahrain_')
 df['flag_Honduras_'] = 1*(df['cid'] == 'Honduras_')
 df['flag_Bangladesh']= 1*(df['cid'] == 'Bangladesh_')
 df['flag_Paraguay_'] = 1*(df['cid'] == 'Paraguay_')
 tr = df.loc[ df.day < valid_day ].copy()
vl = df.loc[ df.day == valid_day ].copy()
tr = tr.loc[ tr.lag0_1 > 0 ].copy()
maptarget0 = tr.groupby('cid')['target0'].agg(log0_max='max' ).reset_index()
maptarget1 = tr.groupby('cid')['target1'].agg(log1_max='max' ).reset_index()
vl['log0_max'] = pd.merge(vl, maptarget0, on='cid' , how='left')['log0_max'].values
vl['log1_max'] = pd.merge(vl, maptarget1, on='cid' , how='left')['log1_max'].values
vl['log0_max'] = vl['log0_max'].fillna(0)
 vl['log1_max'] = vl['log1_max'].fillna(0)
 return tr, vl
def train_models(self, valid_day = 10):
train = self.train.copy()
train.loc[(train.cid=='China_Guizhou')&(train.Date=='2020-03-17'), 'target0' ] = np.log1p(146)
 train.loc[(train.cid=='Guyana_')&(train.Date>='2020-03-22')&(train.Date<='2020-03-30'), 'target0' ] = np.log1p(12)
 train.loc[(train.cid=='US_Virgin Islands')&(train.Date>='2020-03-29')&(train.Date<='2020-03-29'), 'target0' ] = np.log1p(24)
 train.loc[(train.cid=='US_Virgin Islands')&(train.Date>='2020-03-30')&(train.Date<='2020-03-30'), 'target0' ] = np.log1p(27)
 train.loc[(train.cid=='Iceland_')&(train.Date>='2020-03-15')&(train.Date<='2020-03-15'), 'target1' ] = np.log1p(0)
 train.loc[(train.cid=='Kazakhstan_')&(train.Date>='2020-03-20')&(train.Date<='2020-03-20'), 'target1' ] = np.log1p(0)
 train.loc[(train.cid=='Serbia_')&(train.Date>='2020-03-26')&(train.Date<='2020-03-26'), 'target1' ] = np.log1p(5)
 train.loc[(train.cid=='Serbia_')&(train.Date>='2020-03-27')&(train.Date<='2020-03-27'), 'target1' ] = np.log1p(6)
 train.loc[(train.cid=='Slovakia_')&(train.Date>='2020-03-22')&(train.Date<='2020-03-31'), 'target1' ] = np.log1p(1)
 train.loc[(train.cid=='US_Hawaii')&(train.Date>='2020-03-25')&(train.Date<='2020-03-31'), 'target1' ] = np.log1p(1)
 param = {
'subsample': 1.000,
'colsample_bytree': 0.85,
'max_depth': 6,
'gamma': 0.000,
'learning_rate': 0.010,
'min_child_weight': 5.00,
'reg_alpha': 0.000,
'reg_lambda': 0.400,
'silent':1,
'objective':'reg:squarederror',
'nthread': 12,
'seed': self.seed
}
tr, vl = self.create_features(train.copy() , valid_day)
 features = [f for f in tr.columns if f not in [
'lag0_8',
'Id','ConfirmedCases','Fatalities','log0','log1','target0','target1','ypred0','ypred1','Province_State','Country_Region','Date','ForecastId','cid','geo','day',
'GDP_region','TRUE POPULATION','pct_in_largest_city',' TFR ',' Avg_age ','latitude','longitude','abs_latitude','temperature', 'humidity',
'Personality_pdi','Personality_idv','Personality_mas','Personality_uai','Personality_ltowvs','Personality_assertive','personality_perform','personality_agreeableness',
'murder','High_rises','max_high_rises','AIR_CITIES','AIR_AVG','continent_gdp_pc','continent_happiness','continent_generosity','continent_corruption','continent_Life_expectancy'
] ]
self.features0 = features
features = [f for f in tr.columns if f not in [
'm0','m1','m2','m3',
'Id','ConfirmedCases','Fatalities','log0','log1','target0','target1','ypred0','ypred1','Province_State','Country_Region','Date','ForecastId','cid','geo','day',
'GDP_region','TRUE POPULATION','pct_in_largest_city',' TFR ',' Avg_age ','latitude','longitude','abs_latitude','temperature', 'humidity',
'Personality_pdi','Personality_idv','Personality_mas','Personality_uai','Personality_ltowvs','Personality_assertive','personality_perform','personality_agreeableness',
'murder','High_rises','max_high_rises','AIR_CITIES','AIR_AVG','continent_gdp_pc','continent_happiness','continent_generosity','continent_corruption','continent_Life_expectancy'
] ]
self.features1 = features
nrounds0 = 680
nrounds1 = 630
dtrain = xgb.DMatrix(tr[self.features0], tr['target0'])
 param['seed'] = self.seed
self.model0 = xgb.train(param, dtrain, nrounds0, verbose_eval=0)
 param['seed'] = self.seed+1
self.model1 = xgb.train(param, dtrain, nrounds0, verbose_eval=0)
 dtrain = xgb.DMatrix(tr[self.features1], tr['target1'])
 param['seed'] = self.seed
self.model2 = xgb.train(param, dtrain, nrounds1, verbose_eval=0)
 param['seed'] = self.seed+1
self.model3 = xgb.train(param, dtrain, nrounds1, verbose_eval=0)
 self.vl = vl
return 1
def predict_first_day(self, day):
self.day = day
self.train_models(day)
 dvalid = xgb.DMatrix(self.vl[self.features0])
 ypred0 =(self.model0.predict(dvalid)+ self.model1.predict(dvalid)) / 2
dvalid = xgb.DMatrix(self.vl[self.features1])
 ypred1 =(self.model2.predict(dvalid)+ self.model3.predict(dvalid)) / 2
self.vl['ypred0'] = ypred0
self.vl['ypred1'] = ypred1
self.vl.loc[ self.vl.ypred0<self.vl.log0_max, 'ypred0'] = self.vl.loc[ self.vl.ypred0<self.vl.log0_max, 'log0_max']
self.vl.loc[ self.vl.ypred1<self.vl.log1_max, 'ypred1'] = self.vl.loc[ self.vl.ypred1<self.vl.log1_max, 'log1_max']
VALID = self.vl[["geo", "day", 'ypred0', 'ypred1']].copy()
VALID.columns = ["geo", "day", 'ConfirmedCases', 'Fatalities']
return VALID.reset_index(drop=True)
 def predict_next_day(self, yesterday):
self.day += 1
feats = ['geo','day']
self.train[ 'ypred0' ] = pd.merge(self.train[feats], yesterday[feats+['ConfirmedCases']], on=feats, how='left')['ConfirmedCases'].values
self.train.loc[ self.train.ypred0.notnull() , 'target0'] = self.train.loc[ self.train.ypred0.notnull() , 'ypred0']
self.train[ 'ypred1' ] = pd.merge(self.train[feats], yesterday[feats+['Fatalities']], on=feats, how='left')['Fatalities'].values
self.train.loc[ self.train.ypred1.notnull() , 'target1'] = self.train.loc[ self.train.ypred1.notnull() , 'ypred1']
del self.train['ypred0'], self.train['ypred1']
tr, vl = self.create_features(self.train.copy() , self.day)
 dvalid = xgb.DMatrix(vl[self.features0])
 ypred0 =(self.model0.predict(dvalid)+ self.model1.predict(dvalid)) /2
dvalid = xgb.DMatrix(vl[self.features1])
 ypred1 =(self.model2.predict(dvalid)+ self.model3.predict(dvalid)) /2
vl['ypred0'] = ypred0
vl['ypred1'] = ypred1
vl.loc[ vl.ypred0<vl.log0_max, 'ypred0'] = vl.loc[ vl.ypred0<vl.log0_max, 'log0_max']
vl.loc[ vl.ypred1<vl.log1_max, 'ypred1'] = vl.loc[ vl.ypred1<vl.log1_max, 'log1_max']
self.vl = vl
VALID = vl[["geo", "day", 'ypred0', 'ypred1']].copy()
VALID.columns = ["geo", "day", 'ConfirmedCases', 'Fatalities']
return VALID.reset_index(drop=True )
train_df["attempt_no"] = 1
train_df.attempt_no=train_df.attempt_no.astype('int8')
 attempt_no_agg=train_df.groupby(["user_id","content_id"])["attempt_no"].agg(['sum'] ).astype('int8')
 train_df["attempt_no"] = train_df[["user_id","content_id",'attempt_no']].groupby(["user_id","content_id"])["attempt_no"].cumsum()<data_type_conversions>
PATH_TRAIN = "/kaggle/input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-4/train.csv"
PATH_TEST = "/kaggle/input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-4/test.csv"
PATH_SUBMISSION = "submission.csv"
PATH_OUTPUT = "output.csv"
PATH_REGION_METADATA = "/kaggle/input/covid19-forecasting-metadata/region_metadata.csv"
PATH_REGION_DATE_METADATA = "/kaggle/input/covid19-forecasting-metadata/region_date_metadata.csv"
VAL_DAYS = 7
MAD_FACTOR = 0.5
DAYS_SINCE_CASES = [1, 10, 50, 100, 500, 1000, 5000, 10000]
SEED = 2357
LGB_PARAMS = {"objective": "regression",
"num_leaves": 5,
"learning_rate": 0.013,
"bagging_fraction": 0.91,
"feature_fraction": 0.81,
"reg_alpha": 0.13,
"reg_lambda": 0.13,
"metric": "rmse",
"seed": SEED
}
print('start handle timestamp...')
 prior_question_elapsed_time_mean=train_df['prior_question_elapsed_time'].mean()
train_df['prior_question_elapsed_time'].fillna(prior_question_elapsed_time_mean, inplace=True )<data_type_conversions>
train = pd.read_csv(PATH_TRAIN)
 test = pd.read_csv(PATH_TEST)
 region_metadata = pd.read_csv(PATH_REGION_METADATA)
 region_date_metadata = pd.read_csv(PATH_REGION_DATE_METADATA )
max_timestamp_u = train_df[['user_id','timestamp']].groupby(['user_id'] ).agg(['max'] ).reset_index()
max_timestamp_u.columns = ['user_id', 'max_time_stamp']
max_timestamp_u.user_id=max_timestamp_u.user_id.astype('int32' )<data_type_conversions>
train = train.merge(test[["ForecastId", "Province_State", "Country_Region", "Date"]], on = ["Province_State", "Country_Region", "Date"], how = "left")
 test = test[~test.Date.isin(train.Date.unique())]
df_panel = pd.concat([train, test], sort = False)
 df_panel["geography"] = df_panel.Country_Region.astype(str)+ ": " + df_panel.Province_State.astype(str)
 df_panel.loc[df_panel.Province_State.isna() , "geography"] = df_panel[df_panel.Province_State.isna() ].Country_Region
df_panel.ConfirmedCases = df_panel.groupby("geography")["ConfirmedCases"].cummax()
df_panel.Fatalities = df_panel.groupby("geography")["Fatalities"].cummax()
df_panel = df_panel.merge(region_metadata, on = ["Country_Region", "Province_State"])
 df_panel = df_panel.merge(region_date_metadata, on = ["Country_Region", "Province_State", "Date"], how = "left")
 df_panel.continent = LabelEncoder().fit_transform(df_panel.continent)
 df_panel.Date = pd.to_datetime(df_panel.Date, format = "%Y-%m-%d")
 df_panel.sort_values(["geography", "Date"], inplace = True )
train_df['lagtime'] = train_df.groupby('user_id')['timestamp'].shift()
max_timestamp_u2 = train_df[['user_id','lagtime']].groupby(['user_id'] ).agg(['max'] ).reset_index()
max_timestamp_u2.columns = ['user_id', 'max_time_stamp2']
max_timestamp_u2.user_id=max_timestamp_u2.user_id.astype('int32' )<feature_engineering>
min_date_train = np.min(df_panel[~df_panel.Id.isna() ].Date)
 max_date_train = np.max(df_panel[~df_panel.Id.isna() ].Date)
 min_date_test = np.min(df_panel[~df_panel.ForecastId.isna() ].Date)
 max_date_test = np.max(df_panel[~df_panel.ForecastId.isna() ].Date)
 n_dates_test = len(df_panel[~df_panel.ForecastId.isna() ].Date.unique())
 print("Train date range:", str(min_date_train), " - ", str(max_date_train))
print("Test date range:", str(min_date_test), " - ", str(max_date_test))
for lag in range(1, 41):
df_panel[f"lag_{lag}_cc"] = df_panel.groupby("geography")["ConfirmedCases"].shift(lag)
 df_panel[f"lag_{lag}_ft"] = df_panel.groupby("geography")["Fatalities"].shift(lag)
 df_panel[f"lag_{lag}_rc"] = df_panel.groupby("geography")["Recoveries"].shift(lag)
 for case in DAYS_SINCE_CASES:
df_panel = df_panel.merge(df_panel[df_panel.ConfirmedCases >= case].groupby("geography")["Date"].min().reset_index().rename(columns = {"Date": f"case_{case}_date"}), on = "geography", how = "left" )
train_df['lagtime']=train_df['timestamp']-train_df['lagtime']
lagtime_mean=train_df['lagtime'].mean()
train_df['lagtime'].fillna(lagtime_mean, inplace=True )<data_type_conversions>
def prepare_features(df, gap):
df["perc_1_ac"] =(df[f"lag_{gap}_cc"] - df[f"lag_{gap}_ft"] - df[f"lag_{gap}_rc"])/ df[f"lag_{gap}_cc"]
df["perc_1_cc"] = df[f"lag_{gap}_cc"] / df.population
df["diff_1_cc"] = df[f"lag_{gap}_cc"] - df[f"lag_{gap + 1}_cc"]
df["diff_2_cc"] = df[f"lag_{gap + 1}_cc"] - df[f"lag_{gap + 2}_cc"]
df["diff_3_cc"] = df[f"lag_{gap + 2}_cc"] - df[f"lag_{gap + 3}_cc"]
df["diff_1_ft"] = df[f"lag_{gap}_ft"] - df[f"lag_{gap + 1}_ft"]
df["diff_2_ft"] = df[f"lag_{gap + 1}_ft"] - df[f"lag_{gap + 2}_ft"]
df["diff_3_ft"] = df[f"lag_{gap + 2}_ft"] - df[f"lag_{gap + 3}_ft"]
df["diff_123_cc"] =(df[f"lag_{gap}_cc"] - df[f"lag_{gap + 3}_cc"])/ 3
df["diff_123_ft"] =(df[f"lag_{gap}_ft"] - df[f"lag_{gap + 3}_ft"])/ 3
df["diff_change_1_cc"] = df.diff_1_cc / df.diff_2_cc
df["diff_change_2_cc"] = df.diff_2_cc / df.diff_3_cc
df["diff_change_1_ft"] = df.diff_1_ft / df.diff_2_ft
df["diff_change_2_ft"] = df.diff_2_ft / df.diff_3_ft
df["diff_change_12_cc"] =(df.diff_change_1_cc + df.diff_change_2_cc)/ 2
df["diff_change_12_ft"] =(df.diff_change_1_ft + df.diff_change_2_ft)/ 2
df["change_1_cc"] = df[f"lag_{gap}_cc"] / df[f"lag_{gap + 1}_cc"]
df["change_2_cc"] = df[f"lag_{gap + 1}_cc"] / df[f"lag_{gap + 2}_cc"]
df["change_3_cc"] = df[f"lag_{gap + 2}_cc"] / df[f"lag_{gap + 3}_cc"]
df["change_1_ft"] = df[f"lag_{gap}_ft"] / df[f"lag_{gap + 1}_ft"]
df["change_2_ft"] = df[f"lag_{gap + 1}_ft"] / df[f"lag_{gap + 2}_ft"]
df["change_3_ft"] = df[f"lag_{gap + 2}_ft"] / df[f"lag_{gap + 3}_ft"]
df["change_1_3_cc"] = df[f"lag_{gap}_cc"] / df[f"lag_{gap + 3}_cc"]
df["change_1_3_ft"] = df[f"lag_{gap}_ft"] / df[f"lag_{gap + 3}_ft"]
df["change_1_7_cc"] = df[f"lag_{gap}_cc"] / df[f"lag_{gap + 7}_cc"]
df["change_1_7_ft"] = df[f"lag_{gap}_ft"] / df[f"lag_{gap + 7}_ft"]
for case in DAYS_SINCE_CASES:
df[f"days_since_{case}_case"] =(df[f"case_{case}_date"] - df.Date ).astype("timedelta64[D]")
 df.loc[df[f"days_since_{case}_case"] < gap, f"days_since_{case}_case"] = np.nan
df["country_flag"] = df.Province_State.isna().astype(int)
 df["target_cc"] = np.log1p(df.ConfirmedCases - df[f"lag_{gap}_cc"])
 df["target_ft"] = np.log1p(df.Fatalities - df[f"lag_{gap}_ft"])
 features = [
f"lag_{gap}_cc",
f"lag_{gap}_ft",
f"lag_{gap}_rc",
"perc_1_ac",
"perc_1_cc",
"diff_1_cc",
"diff_2_cc",
"diff_3_cc",
"diff_1_ft",
"diff_2_ft",
"diff_3_ft",
"diff_123_cc",
"diff_123_ft",
"diff_change_1_cc",
"diff_change_2_cc",
"diff_change_1_ft",
"diff_change_2_ft",
"diff_change_12_cc",
"diff_change_12_ft",
"change_1_cc",
"change_2_cc",
"change_3_cc",
"change_1_ft",
"change_2_ft",
"change_3_ft",
"change_1_3_cc",
"change_1_3_ft",
"change_1_7_cc",
"change_1_7_ft",
"days_since_1_case",
"days_since_10_case",
"days_since_50_case",
"days_since_100_case",
"days_since_500_case",
"days_since_1000_case",
"days_since_5000_case",
"days_since_10000_case",
"country_flag",
"lat",
"lon",
"continent",
"population",
"area",
"density",
"target_cc",
"target_ft"
]
return df[features]
train_df['lagtime']=train_df['lagtime']/(1000*3600)
 train_df.lagtime=train_df.lagtime.astype('float32' )<data_type_conversions>
def build_predict_lgbm(df_train, df_test, gap):
df_train.dropna(subset = ["target_cc", "target_ft", f"lag_{gap}_cc", f"lag_{gap}_ft"], inplace = True)
 target_cc = df_train.target_cc
target_ft = df_train.target_ft
test_lag_cc = df_test[f"lag_{gap}_cc"].values
test_lag_ft = df_test[f"lag_{gap}_ft"].values
df_train.drop(["target_cc", "target_ft"], axis = 1, inplace = True)
 df_test.drop(["target_cc", "target_ft"], axis = 1, inplace = True)
 categorical_features = ["continent"]
dtrain_cc = lgb.Dataset(df_train, label = target_cc, categorical_feature = categorical_features)
 dtrain_ft = lgb.Dataset(df_train, label = target_ft, categorical_feature = categorical_features)
 model_cc = lgb.train(LGB_PARAMS, train_set = dtrain_cc, num_boost_round = 200)
 model_ft = lgb.train(LGB_PARAMS, train_set = dtrain_ft, num_boost_round = 200)
 y_pred_cc = np.expm1(model_cc.predict(df_test, num_boost_round = 200)) + test_lag_cc
y_pred_ft = np.expm1(model_ft.predict(df_test, num_boost_round = 200)) + test_lag_ft
return y_pred_cc, y_pred_ft, model_cc, model_ft
<data_type_conversions>
def predict_mad(df_test, gap, val = False):
df_test["avg_diff_cc"] =(df_test[f"lag_{gap}_cc"] - df_test[f"lag_{gap + 3}_cc"])/ 3
df_test["avg_diff_ft"] =(df_test[f"lag_{gap}_ft"] - df_test[f"lag_{gap + 3}_ft"])/ 3
if val:
y_pred_cc = df_test[f"lag_{gap}_cc"] + gap * df_test.avg_diff_cc -(1 - MAD_FACTOR)* df_test.avg_diff_cc * np.sum([x for x in range(gap)])/ VAL_DAYS
y_pred_ft = df_test[f"lag_{gap}_ft"] + gap * df_test.avg_diff_ft -(1 - MAD_FACTOR)* df_test.avg_diff_ft * np.sum([x for x in range(gap)])/ VAL_DAYS
else:
y_pred_cc = df_test[f"lag_{gap}_cc"] + gap * df_test.avg_diff_cc -(1 - MAD_FACTOR)* df_test.avg_diff_cc * np.sum([x for x in range(gap)])/ n_dates_test
y_pred_ft = df_test[f"lag_{gap}_ft"] + gap * df_test.avg_diff_ft -(1 - MAD_FACTOR)* df_test.avg_diff_ft * np.sum([x for x in range(gap)])/ n_dates_test
return y_pred_cc, y_pred_ft
train_df['lagtime2'] = train_df.groupby('user_id')['timestamp'].shift(2)
 max_timestamp_u3 = train_df[['user_id','lagtime2']].groupby(['user_id'] ).agg(['max'] ).reset_index()
max_timestamp_u3.columns = ['user_id', 'max_time_stamp3']
max_timestamp_u3.user_id=max_timestamp_u3.user_id.astype('int32')
 train_df['lagtime2']=train_df['timestamp']-train_df['lagtime2']
lagtime_mean2=train_df['lagtime2'].mean()
train_df['lagtime2'].fillna(lagtime_mean2, inplace=True)
<data_type_conversions>
df_train = df_panel[~df_panel.Id.isna() ]
df_test_full = df_panel[~df_panel.ForecastId.isna() ]
df_preds_val = []
df_preds_test = []
for date in df_test_full.Date.unique() :
print("Processing date:", date)
 if date in df_train.Date.values:
df_pred_test = df_test_full.loc[df_test_full.Date == date, ["ForecastId", "ConfirmedCases", "Fatalities"]].rename(columns = {"ConfirmedCases": "ConfirmedCases_test", "Fatalities": "Fatalities_test"})
 df_pred_test.ConfirmedCases_test = df_pred_test.ConfirmedCases_test * 41
df_pred_test.Fatalities_test = df_pred_test.Fatalities_test * 41
else:
df_test = df_test_full[df_test_full.Date == date]
gap =(pd.Timestamp(date)- max_date_train ).days
if gap <= VAL_DAYS:
val_date = max_date_train - pd.Timedelta(VAL_DAYS, "D")+ pd.Timedelta(gap, "D")
 df_build = df_train[df_train.Date < val_date]
df_val = df_train[df_train.Date == val_date]
X_build = prepare_features(df_build, gap)
 X_val = prepare_features(df_val, gap)
 y_val_cc_lgb, y_val_ft_lgb, _, _ = build_predict_lgbm(X_build, X_val, gap)
 y_val_cc_mad, y_val_ft_mad = predict_mad(df_val, gap, val = True)
 df_pred_val = pd.DataFrame({"Id": df_val.Id.values,
"ConfirmedCases_val_lgb": y_val_cc_lgb,
"Fatalities_val_lgb": y_val_ft_lgb,
"ConfirmedCases_val_mad": y_val_cc_mad,
"Fatalities_val_mad": y_val_ft_mad,
})
 df_preds_val.append(df_pred_val)
 X_train = prepare_features(df_train, gap)
 X_test = prepare_features(df_test, gap)
 y_test_cc_lgb, y_test_ft_lgb, model_cc, model_ft = build_predict_lgbm(X_train, X_test, gap)
 y_test_cc_mad, y_test_ft_mad = predict_mad(df_test, gap)
 if gap == 1:
model_1_cc = model_cc
model_1_ft = model_ft
features_1 = X_train.columns.values
elif gap == 14:
model_14_cc = model_cc
model_14_ft = model_ft
features_14 = X_train.columns.values
elif gap == 28:
model_28_cc = model_cc
model_28_ft = model_ft
features_28 = X_train.columns.values
df_pred_test = pd.DataFrame({"ForecastId": df_test.ForecastId.values,
"ConfirmedCases_test_lgb": y_test_cc_lgb,
"Fatalities_test_lgb": y_test_ft_lgb,
"ConfirmedCases_test_mad": y_test_cc_mad,
"Fatalities_test_mad": y_test_ft_mad,
})
 df_preds_test.append(df_pred_test )
train_df['lagtime2']=train_df['lagtime2']/(1000*3600)
 train_df.lagtime2=train_df.lagtime2.astype('float32' )<data_type_conversions>
df_panel = df_panel.merge(pd.concat(df_preds_val, sort = False), on = "Id", how = "left")
 df_panel = df_panel.merge(pd.concat(df_preds_test, sort = False), on = "ForecastId", how = "left")
 rmsle_cc_lgb = np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(np.log1p(df_panel[~df_panel.ConfirmedCases_val_lgb.isna() ].ConfirmedCases), np.log1p(df_panel[~df_panel.ConfirmedCases_val_lgb.isna() ].ConfirmedCases_val_lgb)))
 rmsle_ft_lgb = np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(np.log1p(df_panel[~df_panel.Fatalities_val_lgb.isna() ].Fatalities), np.log1p(df_panel[~df_panel.Fatalities_val_lgb.isna() ].Fatalities_val_lgb)))
 rmsle_cc_mad = np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(np.log1p(df_panel[~df_panel.ConfirmedCases_val_mad.isna() ].ConfirmedCases), np.log1p(df_panel[~df_panel.ConfirmedCases_val_mad.isna() ].ConfirmedCases_val_mad)))
 rmsle_ft_mad = np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(np.log1p(df_panel[~df_panel.Fatalities_val_mad.isna() ].Fatalities), np.log1p(df_panel[~df_panel.Fatalities_val_mad.isna() ].Fatalities_val_mad)))
 print("LGB CC RMSLE Val of", VAL_DAYS, "days for CC:", round(rmsle_cc_lgb, 2))
print("LGB FT RMSLE Val of", VAL_DAYS, "days for FT:", round(rmsle_ft_lgb, 2))
print("LGB Overall RMSLE Val of", VAL_DAYS, "days:", round(( rmsle_cc_lgb + rmsle_ft_lgb)/ 2, 2))
print("
")
 print("MAD CC RMSLE Val of", VAL_DAYS, "days for CC:", round(rmsle_cc_mad, 2))
print("MAD FT RMSLE Val of", VAL_DAYS, "days for FT:", round(rmsle_ft_mad, 2))
print("MAD Overall RMSLE Val of", VAL_DAYS, "days:", round(( rmsle_cc_mad + rmsle_ft_mad)/ 2, 2))
train_df['lagtime3'] = train_df.groupby('user_id')['timestamp'].shift(3)
 train_df['lagtime3']=train_df['timestamp']-train_df['lagtime3']
lagtime_mean3=train_df['lagtime3'].mean()
train_df['lagtime3'].fillna(lagtime_mean3, inplace=True)
 train_df['lagtime3']=train_df['lagtime3']/(1000*3600)
 train_df.lagtime3=train_df.lagtime3.astype('float32' )<data_type_conversions>
df_test = df_panel.loc[~df_panel.ForecastId.isna() , ["ForecastId", "Country_Region", "Province_State", "Date",
"ConfirmedCases_test", "ConfirmedCases_test_lgb", "ConfirmedCases_test_mad",
"Fatalities_test", "Fatalities_test_lgb", "Fatalities_test_mad"]].reset_index()
df_test["ConfirmedCases"] = 0.13 * df_test.ConfirmedCases_test_lgb + 0.87 * df_test.ConfirmedCases_test_mad
df_test["Fatalities"] = 0.13 * df_test.Fatalities_test_lgb + 0.87 * df_test.Fatalities_test_mad
df_test.loc[df_test.Country_Region.isin(["Diamond Princess", "MS Zaandam"]), "ConfirmedCases"] = df_test[df_test.Country_Region.isin(["Diamond Princess", "MS Zaandam"])].ConfirmedCases_test_mad.values
df_test.loc[df_test.Country_Region.isin(["Diamond Princess", "MS Zaandam"]), "Fatalities"] = df_test[df_test.Country_Region.isin(["Diamond Princess", "MS Zaandam"])].Fatalities_test_mad.values
df_test.loc[df_test.Date.isin(df_train.Date.values), "ConfirmedCases"] = df_test[df_test.Date.isin(df_train.Date.values)].ConfirmedCases_test.values
df_test.loc[df_test.Date.isin(df_train.Date.values), "Fatalities"] = df_test[df_test.Date.isin(df_train.Date.values)].Fatalities_test.values
df_submission = df_test[["ForecastId", "ConfirmedCases", "Fatalities"]]
df_submission.ForecastId = df_submission.ForecastId.astype(int )
<data_type_conversions>
TARGETS = ["ConfirmedCases", "Fatalities"]
def rmse(y_true, y_pred):
return np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(y_true, y_pred))
df = pd.read_csv(".. /input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-4/train.csv")
 df[TARGETS] = np.log1p(df[TARGETS].values)
 sub_df = pd.read_csv(".. /input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-4/test.csv")
 def preprocess(df):
for col in ["Country_Region", "Province_State"]:
df[col].fillna("", inplace=True)
 df["Date"] = pd.to_datetime(df['Date'])
 df['day'] = df.Date.dt.dayofyear
df['geo'] = ['_'.join(x)for x in zip(df['Country_Region'], df['Province_State'])]
return df
df = preprocess(df)
 sub_df = preprocess(sub_df)
 sub_df["day"] -= df["day"].min()
df["day"] -= df["day"].min()
train_df['timestamp']=train_df['timestamp']/(1000*3600)
 train_df.timestamp=train_df.timestamp.astype('float16' )<feature_engineering>
print(sub_df.shape)
 sub_df = sub_df.merge(df.append(eval_df, sort=False), on=["geo", "day"], how="left")
 print(sub_df.shape)
 print(sub_df[TARGETS].isnull().mean() )
train_df['delta_prior_question_elapsed_time'] = train_df.groupby('user_id')['prior_question_elapsed_time'].shift()
train_df['delta_prior_question_elapsed_time']=train_df['prior_question_elapsed_time']-train_df['delta_prior_question_elapsed_time']<data_type_conversions>
flat = [
'China_Anhui',
'China_Beijing',
'China_Chongqing',
'China_Fujian',
'China_Gansu',
'China_Guangdong',
'China_Guangxi',
'China_Guizhou',
'China_Hainan',
'China_Hebei',
'China_Heilongjiang',
'China_Henan',
'China_Hubei',
'China_Hunan',
'China_Jiangsu',
'China_Jiangxi',
'China_Jilin',
'China_Liaoning',
'China_Ningxia',
'China_Qinghai',
'China_Shaanxi',
'China_Shandong',
'China_Shanxi',
'China_Sichuan',
'China_Tibet',
'China_Xinjiang',
'China_Yunnan',
'China_Zhejiang',
'Diamond Princess_',
'Holy See_',
]
delta_prior_question_elapsed_time_mean=train_df['delta_prior_question_elapsed_time'].mean()
train_df['delta_prior_question_elapsed_time'].fillna(delta_prior_question_elapsed_time_mean, inplace=True)
 train_df.delta_prior_question_elapsed_time=train_df.delta_prior_question_elapsed_time.astype('int32' )<data_type_conversions>
dt = sub_df.loc[ sub_df.Date_x == "2020-04-07" ].copy()
dt = dt.loc[ dt.geo.isin(flat)].copy()
dt = dt[['geo','Date_x','day','ConfirmedCases','Fatalities']].copy()
dt = dt.reset_index(drop=True )
train_df['lag'] = train_df.groupby('user_id')[target].shift()
cum = train_df.groupby('user_id')['lag'].agg(['cumsum', 'cumcount'])
 user_agg = train_df.groupby('user_id')['lag'].agg(['sum', 'count'] ).astype('int16')
 cum['cumsum'].fillna(0, inplace=True)
 train_df['user_correctness'] = cum['cumsum'] / cum['cumcount']
train_df['user_correct_count'] = cum['cumsum']
train_df['user_uncorrect_count'] = cum['cumcount']-cum['cumsum']
train_df.drop(columns=['lag'], inplace=True)
 train_df['user_correctness'].fillna(0.67, inplace=True)
 train_df.user_correctness=train_df.user_correctness.astype('float16')
 train_df.user_correct_count=train_df.user_correct_count.astype('int16')
 train_df.user_uncorrect_count=train_df.user_uncorrect_count.astype('int16')
<set_options>
sub_df['ow0'] = pd.merge(sub_df, dt, on='geo', how='left')['ConfirmedCases_y'].values
sub_df['ow1'] = pd.merge(sub_df, dt, on='geo', how='left')['Fatalities_y'].values
del cum
gc.collect()<data_type_conversions>
sub_df.loc[ sub_df.ow0.notnull() &(sub_df.Date_x >= '2020-04-08'), 'ConfirmedCases' ] = sub_df.loc[ sub_df.ow0.notnull() &(sub_df.Date_x >= '2020-04-08'), 'ow0' ]
sub_df.loc[ sub_df.ow1.notnull() &(sub_df.Date_x >= '2020-04-08'), 'Fatalities' ] = sub_df.loc[ sub_df.ow1.notnull() &(sub_df.Date_x >= '2020-04-08'), 'ow1' ]
<data_type_conversions>
sub_df.sort_values("ForecastId", inplace=True)
 df_submission.sort_values("ForecastId", inplace=True )
train_df.prior_question_had_explanation=train_df.prior_question_had_explanation.astype('int8')
 explanation_agg = train_df.groupby('user_id')['prior_question_had_explanation'].agg(['sum', 'count'])
 explanation_agg=explanation_agg.astype('int16')
<data_type_conversions>
for t in TARGETS:
df_submission[t] = np.expm1(np.log1p(df_submission[t].values)*0.55 + sub_df[t].values*0.45 )
cum = train_df.groupby('user_id')['prior_question_had_explanation'].agg(['cumsum', 'cumcount'])
 cum['cumcount']=cum['cumcount']+1
train_df['explanation_mean'] = cum['cumsum'] / cum['cumcount']
train_df['explanation_true_count'] = cum['cumsum']
train_df['explanation_false_count'] = cum['cumcount']-cum['cumsum']
train_df.explanation_mean=train_df.explanation_mean.astype('float16')
 train_df.explanation_true_count=train_df.explanation_true_count.astype('int16')
 train_df.explanation_false_count=train_df.explanation_false_count.astype('int16' )<set_options>
df_submission.to_csv("submission.csv", index=False, float_format='%.1f' )