Kaggle competition: COVID19 Global Forecasting (Week 2)
<SOS> metric: MCRMSLE Kaggle data source: covid19-global-forecasting-(week-2)<categorify>
print("Read in libraries")
conditions = [ 
(data['edjefe']=='no')&(data['edjefa']=='no'), 
(data['edjefe']=='yes')&(data['edjefa']=='no'), 
(data['edjefe']=='no')&(data['edjefa']=='yes'), 
(data['edjefe']!='no')&(data['edjefe']!='yes')&(data['edjefa']=='no'), 
(data['edjefe']=='no')&(data['edjefa']!='no')
 ]
choices = [0, 1, 1, data['edjefe'], data['edjefa']]
data['edjefx']=np.select(conditions, choices)
 data['edjefx']=data['edjefx'].astype(int)
 data[['edjefe', 'edjefa', 'edjefx']][:15]<filter>
print("read in train file")
 df=pd.read_csv("/kaggle/input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-2/train.csv",
usecols=['Province_State','Country_Region','Date','ConfirmedCases','Fatalities'])
data.columns[data.isna().sum() !=0]<filter>
print("fill blanks and add region for counting")
 df.fillna(' ',inplace=True)
 df['Lat']=df['Province_State']+df['Country_Region']
df.drop('Province_State',axis=1,inplace=True)
 df.drop('Country_Region',axis=1,inplace=True)
data[data['meaneduc'].isnull() ]<filter>
countries_list=df.Lat.unique()
df1=[]
for i in countries_list:
df1.append(df[df['Lat']==i])
 print("we have "+ str(len(df1)) +" regions in our dataset")
 test=pd.read_csv("/kaggle/input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-2/test.csv" )
data[data['meaneduc'].isnull() ][['Id','idhogar','edjefe','edjefa', 'hogar_adul', 'hogar_mayor', 'hogar_nin', 'age', 'escolari']]<filter>
submit_confirmed=[]
submit_fatal=[]
for i in df1:
data = i.ConfirmedCases.astype('int32' ).tolist()
try:
model = SARIMAX(data, order=(1,1,0), seasonal_order=(1,1,0,12),measurement_error=True)
 model_fit = model.fit(disp=False)
 predicted = model_fit.predict(len(data), len(data)+34)
 new=np.concatenate(( np.array(data),np.array([int(num)for num in predicted])) ,axis=0)
 submit_confirmed.extend(list(new[-43:]))
except:
submit_confirmed.extend(list(data[-10:-1]))
for j in range(34):
submit_confirmed.append(data[-1]*2)
 data = i.Fatalities.astype('int32' ).tolist()
try:
model = SARIMAX(data, order=(1,1,0), seasonal_order=(1,1,0,12),measurement_error=True)
 model_fit = model.fit(disp=False)
 predicted = model_fit.predict(len(data), len(data)+34)
 new=np.concatenate(( np.array(data),np.array([int(num)for num in predicted])) ,axis=0)
 submit_fatal.extend(list(new[-43:]))
except:
submit_fatal.extend(list(data[-10:-1]))
for j in range(34):
submit_fatal.append(data[-1]*2)
print(len(data[data['idhogar']==data.iloc[1291]['idhogar']]))
print(len(data[data['idhogar']==data.iloc[1840]['idhogar']]))
print(len(data[data['idhogar']==data.iloc[2049]['idhogar']]))<define_variables>
df_submit=pd.concat([pd.Series(np.arange(1,1+len(submit_confirmed))),pd.Series(submit_confirmed),pd.Series(submit_fatal)],axis=1)
 df_submit=df_submit.fillna(method='pad' ).astype(int )
meaneduc_nan=data[data['meaneduc'].isnull() ][['Id','idhogar','escolari']]<groupby>
df_submit.rename(columns={0: 'ForecastId', 1: 'ConfirmedCases',2: 'Fatalities',}, inplace=True)
 complete_test= pd.merge(test, df_submit, how="left", on="ForecastId" )
me=meaneduc_nan.groupby('idhogar')['escolari'].mean().reset_index()<feature_engineering>
df_submit.to_csv('submission.csv',header=['ForecastId','ConfirmedCases','Fatalities'],index=False)
 complete_test.to_csv('complete_test.csv',index=False)