Kaggle competition: COVID19 Global Forecasting (Week 4)
<SOS> metric: MCRMSLE Kaggle data source: covid19-global-forecasting-(week-4)<load_from_csv>
if not sys.warnoptions:
warnings.simplefilter("ignore")
 warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
questions_df = pd.read_csv(
 '.. /input/riiid-test-answer-prediction/questions.csv',
usecols=[0, 1,3,4],
dtype={'question_id': 'int16','bundle_id': 'int16', 'part': 'int8','tags': 'str'} 
)
 questions_df['part_bundle_id']=questions_df['part']*100000+questions_df['bundle_id']
questions_df.part_bundle_id=questions_df.part_bundle_id.astype('int32')
 tag = questions_df["tags"].str.split(" ", n = 10, expand = True)
 tag.columns = ['tags1','tags2','tags3','tags4','tags5','tags6']
tag.fillna(0, inplace=True)
 tag = tag.astype('int16')
 questions_df = pd.concat([questions_df,tag],axis=1 ).drop(['tags'],axis=1 )<rename_columns>
def RMSLE(pred,actual):
return np.sqrt(np.mean(np.power(( np.log(pred+1)-np.log(actual+1)) ,2)) )
questions_df.rename(columns={'question_id':'content_id'}, inplace=True )<data_type_conversions>
pd.set_option('mode.chained_assignment', None)
 test = pd.read_csv("/kaggle/input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-4/test.csv")
 train = pd.read_csv("/kaggle/input/covid19-global-forecasting-week-4/train.csv")
 train['Province_State'].fillna('', inplace=True)
 test['Province_State'].fillna('', inplace=True)
 train['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(train['Date'])
 test['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(test['Date'])
 train = train.sort_values(['Country_Region','Province_State','Date'])
 test = test.sort_values(['Country_Region','Province_State','Date'] )
questions_df['content_correctness'] = questions_df['content_id'].map(content_agg['sum'] / content_agg['count'])
 questions_df.content_correctness=questions_df.content_correctness.astype('float16')
 questions_df['content_correctness_std'] = questions_df['content_id'].map(content_agg['var'])
 questions_df.content_correctness_std=questions_df.content_correctness_std.astype('float16' )<categorify>
feature_day = [1,20,50,100,200,500,1000]
def CreateInput(data):
feature = []
for day in feature_day:
data.loc[:,'Number day from ' + str(day)+ ' case'] = 0
if(train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)&(train['ConfirmedCases'] < day)]['Date'].count() > 0):
fromday = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)&(train['ConfirmedCases'] < day)]['Date'].max()
else:
fromday = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)]['Date'].min()
for i in range(0, len(data)) :
if(data['Date'].iloc[i] > fromday):
day_denta = data['Date'].iloc[i] - fromday
data['Number day from ' + str(day)+ ' case'].iloc[i] = day_denta.days
feature = feature + ['Number day from ' + str(day)+ ' case']
return data[feature]
pred_data_all = pd.DataFrame()
for country in train['Country_Region'].unique() :
for province in train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)]['Province_State'].unique() :
df_train = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)]
df_test = test[(test['Country_Region'] == country)&(test['Province_State'] == province)]
X_train = CreateInput(df_train)
 y_train_confirmed = df_train['ConfirmedCases'].ravel()
y_train_fatalities = df_train['Fatalities'].ravel()
X_pred = CreateInput(df_test)
 for day in sorted(feature_day,reverse = True):
feature_use = 'Number day from ' + str(day)+ ' case'
idx = X_train[X_train[feature_use] == 0].shape[0]
if(X_train[X_train[feature_use] > 0].shape[0] >= 20):
break
adjusted_X_train = X_train[idx:][feature_use].values.reshape(-1, 1)
 adjusted_y_train_confirmed = y_train_confirmed[idx:]
adjusted_y_train_fatalities = y_train_fatalities[idx:]
idx = X_pred[X_pred[feature_use] == 0].shape[0]
adjusted_X_pred = X_pred[idx:][feature_use].values.reshape(-1, 1)
 pred_data = test[(test['Country_Region'] == country)&(test['Province_State'] == province)]
max_train_date = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)]['Date'].max()
min_test_date = pred_data['Date'].min()
model = ExponentialSmoothing(adjusted_y_train_confirmed, trend = 'additive' ).fit()
y_hat_confirmed = model.forecast(pred_data[pred_data['Date'] > max_train_date].shape[0])
 y_train_confirmed = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)&(train['Date'] >= min_test_date)]['ConfirmedCases'].values
y_hat_confirmed = np.concatenate(( y_train_confirmed,y_hat_confirmed), axis = 0)
 model = ExponentialSmoothing(adjusted_y_train_fatalities, trend = 'additive' ).fit()
y_hat_fatalities = model.forecast(pred_data[pred_data['Date'] > max_train_date].shape[0])
 y_train_fatalities = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)&(train['Date'] >= min_test_date)]['Fatalities'].values
y_hat_fatalities = np.concatenate(( y_train_fatalities,y_hat_fatalities), axis = 0)
 pred_data['ConfirmedCases_hat'] = y_hat_confirmed
pred_data['Fatalities_hat'] = y_hat_fatalities
pred_data_all = pred_data_all.append(pred_data)
 df_val = pd.merge(pred_data_all,train[['Date','Country_Region','Province_State','ConfirmedCases','Fatalities']],on=['Date','Country_Region','Province_State'], how='left')
 df_val.loc[df_val['Fatalities_hat'] < 0,'Fatalities_hat'] = 0
df_val.loc[df_val['ConfirmedCases_hat'] < 0,'ConfirmedCases_hat'] = 0
df_val_1 = df_val.copy()
part_agg = questions_df.groupby('part')['content_correctness'].agg(['mean', 'var'])
 questions_df['part_correctness_mean'] = questions_df['part'].map(part_agg['mean'])
 questions_df['part_correctness_std'] = questions_df['part'].map(part_agg['var'])
 questions_df.part_correctness_mean=questions_df.part_correctness_mean.astype('float16')
 questions_df.part_correctness_std=questions_df.part_correctness_std.astype('float16' )<categorify>
feature_day = [1,20,50,100,200,500,1000]
def CreateInput(data):
feature = []
for day in feature_day:
data.loc[:,'Number day from ' + str(day)+ ' case'] = 0
if(train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)&(train['ConfirmedCases'] < day)]['Date'].count() > 0):
fromday = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)&(train['ConfirmedCases'] < day)]['Date'].max()
else:
fromday = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)]['Date'].min()
for i in range(0, len(data)) :
if(data['Date'].iloc[i] > fromday):
day_denta = data['Date'].iloc[i] - fromday
data['Number day from ' + str(day)+ ' case'].iloc[i] = day_denta.days
feature = feature + ['Number day from ' + str(day)+ ' case']
return data[feature]
pred_data_all = pd.DataFrame()
for country in train['Country_Region'].unique() :
for province in train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)]['Province_State'].unique() :
df_train = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)]
df_test = test[(test['Country_Region'] == country)&(test['Province_State'] == province)]
X_train = CreateInput(df_train)
 y_train_confirmed = df_train['ConfirmedCases'].ravel()
y_train_fatalities = df_train['Fatalities'].ravel()
X_pred = CreateInput(df_test)
 for day in sorted(feature_day,reverse = True):
feature_use = 'Number day from ' + str(day)+ ' case'
idx = X_train[X_train[feature_use] == 0].shape[0]
if(X_train[X_train[feature_use] > 0].shape[0] >= 20):
break
adjusted_X_train = X_train[idx:][feature_use].values.reshape(-1, 1)
 adjusted_y_train_confirmed = y_train_confirmed[idx:]
adjusted_y_train_fatalities = y_train_fatalities[idx:]
idx = X_pred[X_pred[feature_use] == 0].shape[0]
adjusted_X_pred = X_pred[idx:][feature_use].values.reshape(-1, 1)
 pred_data = test[(test['Country_Region'] == country)&(test['Province_State'] == province)]
max_train_date = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)]['Date'].max()
min_test_date = pred_data['Date'].min()
model = SARIMAX(adjusted_y_train_confirmed, order=(1,1,0),
measurement_error=True ).fit(disp=False)
 y_hat_confirmed = model.forecast(pred_data[pred_data['Date'] > max_train_date].shape[0])
 y_train_confirmed = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)&(train['Date'] >= min_test_date)]['ConfirmedCases'].values
y_hat_confirmed = np.concatenate(( y_train_confirmed,y_hat_confirmed), axis = 0)
 model = SARIMAX(adjusted_y_train_fatalities, order=(1,1,0),
measurement_error=True ).fit(disp=False)
 y_hat_fatalities = model.forecast(pred_data[pred_data['Date'] > max_train_date].shape[0])
 y_train_fatalities = train[(train['Country_Region'] == country)&(train['Province_State'] == province)&(train['Date'] >= min_test_date)]['Fatalities'].values
y_hat_fatalities = np.concatenate(( y_train_fatalities,y_hat_fatalities), axis = 0)
 pred_data['ConfirmedCases_hat'] = y_hat_confirmed
pred_data['Fatalities_hat'] = y_hat_fatalities
pred_data_all = pred_data_all.append(pred_data)
 df_val = pd.merge(pred_data_all,train[['Date','Country_Region','Province_State','ConfirmedCases','Fatalities']],on=['Date','Country_Region','Province_State'], how='left')
 df_val.loc[df_val['Fatalities_hat'] < 0,'Fatalities_hat'] = 0
df_val.loc[df_val['ConfirmedCases_hat'] < 0,'ConfirmedCases_hat'] = 0
df_val_2 = df_val.copy()
bundle_agg = questions_df.groupby('bundle_id')['content_correctness'].agg(['mean'])
 questions_df['bundle_correctness'] = questions_df['bundle_id'].map(bundle_agg['mean'])
 questions_df.bundle_correctness=questions_df.bundle_correctness.astype('float16' )<categorify>
method_list = ['Exponential Smoothing','SARIMA']
method_val = [df_val_1,df_val_2]
for i in range(0,2):
df_val = method_val[i]
method_score = [method_list[i]] + [RMSLE(df_val[(df_val['ConfirmedCases'].isnull() == False)]['ConfirmedCases'].values,df_val[(df_val['ConfirmedCases'].isnull() == False)]['ConfirmedCases_hat'].values)] + [RMSLE(df_val[(df_val['Fatalities'].isnull() == False)]['Fatalities'].values,df_val[(df_val['Fatalities'].isnull() == False)]['Fatalities_hat'].values)]
print(method_score )
<drop_column><EOS> 
df_val = df_val_2
submission = df_val[['ForecastId','ConfirmedCases_hat','Fatalities_hat']]
submission.columns = ['ForecastId','ConfirmedCases','Fatalities']
submission.to_csv('submission.csv', index=False)
 submission