成長の限界
Jørgen Randers, one of the authors of the seminal 1972 long-term simulations in "The Limits to Growth", offered an alternative scenario in a 2012 book, arguing that traditional projections insufficiently take into account the downward impact of global urbanization on fertility. Randers' "most likely scenario" predicts a peak in the world population in the early 2040s at about 8.1 billion people, followed by decline.