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programme, meant to develop a working UCAV, but not necessarily an operational system. 
Corax is basically a high-end UAV development, using stealth technologies, under development 
since 2003 and unveiled in 2006. The aircraft is large enough to function as a UCAV. A third 
programme in which UK with industry involvement is the X-48B, a reduced-size prototype has 
been built by Cranfield Aerospace for the US company Boeing33. 
 
Germany cooperates with Spain in the development of the Barracuda, another UAV programme 
with possibilities to grow into a UCAV. About the same size as the Taranis, the Barracuda flew 
first in 2006 and is also meant as a technology demonstrator. Originally envisaged to develop 
technologies for a long-range reconnaissance UAV - intended to replace the manned Tornado 
aircraft in reconnaissance tasks - it is now also intended to demonstrate armed combat 
capabilities. EADS leads the development programme, which is funded by the German and 
Spanish governments. In Italy, Finmeccanica’s Alenia has been working on a technology 
demonstrator called Sky-X, which first flew in 2005 as the first European UAV with a weight of 
over 1,000 kg34. 
 
It is clear that UCAVs will not replace manned aircraft in all or even many tasks, not even for 
some of the most hazardous missions where the loss of aircraft and pilots is likely35. However, 
in some instances UCAVs will be able to offer unmanned alternatives for dangerous missions; 
often in conjunction with manned aircraft. As yet the roles for the UCAV in Europe are 
undefined, but are likely to be the basis of future SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defences) 
forces – attacking enemy radar and air-defence systems, currently one of the most risky tasks for 
manned combat aircraft36. 
 
The one task where UCAVs offer a clear advantage is for covert combat missions, where 
‘deniability’ is a priority: something rendered impossible if and when pilots are lost over 
‘enemy’ territory. The downside is the possibility that having an improved option for conducting 
deniable covert operations may lower the threshold for carrying them out. 
 
 
5. The role of the EU on the global UAV/UCAV market 
 
The global market for UAVs has grown dramatically in the last 10 years and is expected to 
maintain high growth rates in the coming decade when existing possessors expand their use of 
UAVs and when more countries acquire them. This opens up possibilities for EU producers to 
improve on their previously poor track record and export their products to non-EU countries. As 
Figure 2 shows (below), only a small proportion of global UAV acquisitions from foreign 
sources in the last 10 years concerns EU producers exporting to non-EU countries. An estimate 
for 2006 gave EU producers only a four per cent share of the global market, almost all from 
national or intra-EU sales. Most of the global export market is covered by the US (in 2006, US 
producers accounted for some 60 per cent of the total global market - including the huge US 
market37) and Israel (IAI’s MALAT division pronounces that it ‘leads the market in UAV  
 
 
                                                 
33 NASA website, 4 May 2006, URL http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/improvingflight/x48b.html. 
34 Alenia website, URL < http://www.alenia-aeronautica.it/Products/sky-x.asp>. 
35 The end of manned combat aircraft has been predicted in the 1950s, 1960, 1970s and 1980s and has then been 
proven very premature. 
36 Streetly, M., ‘Disrupt, disable, destroy’ (Briefing: Suppression of enemy air defences), Jane’s Defence Weekly, 
14 December 2005, pp. 24-29. 
37 Dickerson, L., ‘UAVs on the rise’, Aviation Week & Space Technology, 15 January 2007. 
 
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