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countries), many of which have extensive EEZs40 to patrol (Nigeria is one of the first countries 
adopting UAVs for maritime patrol)41. UAVs have also already found use with some developing 
countries for surveillance missions against rebel forces (e.g. in Sri Lanka, Angola and the 
Philippines). 
 
An interesting development is the use of UAVs by government agencies other than the military 
and by civilian users. Here large UAVs are seen as useful for SAR, surveillance of large areas 
(e.g. forests or fishing grounds), and geographic and geological survey. Smaller, ‘tactical’ or 
mini UAVs could well be practical for police forces for area surveillance (e.g. for traffic 
control), while even the smallest UAVs are already being offered for small scale agricultural 
use, for example42. 
 
All analysts agree the UAV market will still see strong growth in the coming decade. 
Information from open sources on planned acquisitions globally indicates that most countries 
currently possessing UAVs will expand their inventory and/or improve sensors on their UAVs. 
In addition, many new military users of UAVs will emerge. Some predictions have been made 
about the size of the future global UAV market (for example, one estimate suggests that the 
market will be worth about US$13.5bn43 between 2005 and 2014: another suggests 
US$17.5bn44 between 2003 and 2012), although it is impossible to judge how good these 
stimates are.  
exports, therefore, US producers already have up to 50 per cent of the global market 
overed45.  
 market segment where they could 
ompete with UAVs and UCAVs was worth some US$3bn46. 
                                                
e
 
Where open sources provide information about those UAV procurement plans under 
consideration, it is clear that very few EU companies are involved in the competition. A large 
part of the expected market is in the US, where EU UAVs have little chance of competing on 
even terms. The value of expected US orders for Global Hawk UAV by 2014 is already 
US$3.5bn (or 25 per cent of the total estimated value of the global UAV market). Without 
resorting to 
c
 
Another important part of the future market is already locked, with programmes such as the UK 
Watchkeeper or the NATO AGS having already been selected but not yet ordered or delivered. 
Most procurement globally in the next 10 years seems likely to be filled mainly by Israeli and 
US companies. In 2004 Dassault and EADS suggested that the
c
 
The market specific to UCAVs is currently less clear, partly because UCAVs are such a new 
concept. A tentative estimate of some US$7.5bn has been given as the value of the UCAV 
market between 2003 and 201247. Export of UCAVs (excluding armed UAVs) is not foreseen in 
 
40 Under the law of the sea, an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is a sea zone over which a state has special rights 
over the exploration and use of marine resources. 
41 In 2006 Nigeria bought Israeli UAVs and Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USV – remote controlled boats). 
42 See for example the Canadian company CropCam, which offers a 3 kg camera-equipped micro UAV to ‘patrol’ 
farms. CropCam website, URL < http://cropcam.com/>.  
43 ‘UAV market to top $13 billion by 2014’, Forecast International press release, 21 Oct. 2005. 
44 Frost & Sullivan quoted in US Department of Commerce report dated early 2005, URL 
http://commercecan.ic.gc.ca/scdt/bizmap/interface2.nsf/vDownload/ISA_1593/$file/X_2891343.PDF. 
45 ‘UAV market to top $13 billion by 2014’, Forecast International press release, 21 Oct. 2005. 
46 US Department of Commerce, ‘France to lead UAV development in Europe’, STAT-USA 15 July 2004, URL 
http://strategis.ic.gc.ca/epic/site/imr-ri.nsf/en/gr125937e.html 
47 Frost & Sullivan quoted in US Department of Commerce report dated early 2005, URL 
http://commercecan.ic.gc.ca/scdt/bizmap/interface2.nsf/vDownload/ISA_1593/$file/X_2891343.PDF 
 
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