kakeith406/op-fed huggingface dataset:
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. LACKER.
text: I also agree with President Plosser. I'll just register agreement with his concern about the capacity utilization language. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.
text: Thank you. Governor Warsh. 

MR. WARSH. "The most important thing that we're accomplishing in alternative B is suggesting that we aren't going to come to the rescue of market tumult, that market discipline is working, that we don't want complacency in the markets, and that our job is not to make sure that people make money in those markets."

Full utterance: Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I also generally share the views of alternative B and favor maintaining the federal funds rate today. I thought what I'd do is just highlight a couple of things. First, I think the statement needs to be reflective of the real economy rather than financial markets, as we discussed yesterday. So let me spend a moment on the reference to "still-favorable financial conditions" in alternative B. I think the financial conditions are still favorable, and so that's an honest depiction of events, as is the rest of the statement after the reference to coming quarters. I think the question really is, If we enter the debate over describing the financial conditions, how do we get out of it? So when we meet next, I'm wondering how we'll then describe the financial conditions. Or if we stop any reference thereto, what is that saying? That is, I think these markets are adjusting in a very orderly way. I don't feel now, as I feared a few weeks ago, that we would have to say and do things to ensure that adjustment occurs. If we don't refer to these financial conditions and we continue to suggest that we think the economy will expand at a moderate pace over the coming quarters, that in itself shows that we have some degree of comfort that the financial market tumult hasn't really changed our central tendency. So though I'm comfortable with the honest depiction of all of alternative B, I worry a bit about what our exit strategy is. I can't come up with a better way in which to refer to financial conditions without inviting that discussion, and so I'm left with puzzlement about an exit strategy on that question. The most important thing that we're accomplishing in alternative B is suggesting that we aren't going to come to the rescue of market tumult, that market discipline is working, that we don't want complacency in the markets, and that our job is not to make sure that people make money in those markets. Our job, as many of you have said, is to keep the economy on an even keel. So with that, I favor alternative B, but I will remain a little uncomfortable until someone can tell how we answer the question about what we do next regarding the reference to still-favorable financial conditions.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: yes
Stance toward easing (NLI): contradiction
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: As I read the Committee, we're strongly in support of a 25 basis point increase and modestly in support of symmetry. So I would suggest that we read the directive in that context and then proceed to vote. 
speaker: MR. BERNARD.
text: This time we're on page 22 of the Bluebook, at the bottom of the page: "To promote the Committee's long-run objectives of price stability and sustainable economic growth, the Committee in the immediate future seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with increasing the federal funds rate to an average of around 5 percent. In view of the evidence currently available, the Committee believes that prospective developments are equally likely to warrant an increase or a decrease in the federal funds rate operating objective during the intermeeting period." 
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: Let's vote. 

MR. BERNARD. "Yes Governor Gramlich"


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. BLACK.
text: I think we have a real opportunity here to make significant progress--the best we've had since I've been around. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: The coffee is here and I neglected to take the break; I notice everyone is running for coffee, so why don't we take a short break and come back in 5 minutes? 
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: President Parry. 
speaker: MR. PARRY.
text: Mr. Chairman. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: Begin, s'il vous plait! 

MR. PARRY. "However, I should point out that total District employment still remains 0.4 of a percent above the May 1990 level, with California the only District state to lose employment over the year."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. TRUMAN.
text: The government stockpile program will add $3 billion to oil imports currently estimated for 1978. 
speaker: MR. COLDWELL.
text: So you are saying that the entire swing in net exports is an oil-related phenomenon. 
speaker: MR. TRUMAN.
text: Yes, most of it. Most of it is a swing in the irregularity of it, if I can put it that way. Yes. 

CHAIRMAN BURNS. "Any other questions or comment."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: And of course, for many U.S. companies [with] operations abroad, it has a direct impact on their profits. And it makes an already not-very-robust profit picture look worse in terms of reported profits-- 
speaker: MR. WALLICH.
text: Particularly FASB 8 [Statement No. 8 of the Financial Accounting Standards Board]. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN BURNS.
text: Have I-- 
speaker: MR. WALLICH.
text: That's an accounting rule under which the losses on foreign exchange due to foreign exchange liability must be taken directly into each quarter's profit. 

MR. PARTEE. "But the exchange rate is taken in for financial assets, and therefore they will have appreciation."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. WILCOX.
text: There's one little detail that is causing another piece of friction in the market, and that is that, if the servicer doesn't perform on the loan, then the Department of Education has the right to not make good on the guarantee. But other than that, it's about 97 percent guaranteed. 
speaker: MR. DUDLEY.
text: We think they're pretty safe--not perfectly safe, but pretty safe. 
speaker: MR. LACKER.
text: Okay. 
speaker: MR. WILCOX.
text: Apparently the ability of the Department of Education not to make good on the guarantee is very rarely exercised. 

MR. LACKER. "It guarantees the commercial paper rate."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Let me write it down here. It took me some time to figure out how to spell it. 
speaker: MR. BOEHNE.
text: We've had less-- 
speaker: MR. JOHNSON.
text: It seems like we can kill two birds with one stone with that. I don't think the implications are great one way or the other but if some sort of asymmetry in the language would represent our current feeling--and maybe I'm wrong interpreting it that way--that we actually believe that the economy is going to show weakness, the timing [of the directive's publication] would be associated with the actual event. 

CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. "Presumably, the directive will get interpreted in that light anyway, which [unintelligible] arguments."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. REINHART.
text: What we do is take the energy futures curve, take the weight in the CPI-- 
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: Yes, but I never saw the result. 
speaker: MR. REINHART.
text: Actually, Governor Ferguson saw something very similar just this week. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: That still doesn't answer my question! [Laughter] 

MR. REINHART. "[Laughter]"


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Mr. Balles. 
speaker: MR. BALLES.
text: Mr. Chairman, I don't know what credence we ought to put in the rumors, and maybe we shouldn't even bring them to this table. One of my directors called up very excited yesterday about a rumor that the dollar was going to be devalued, mind you, sometime in October. I suspect, but I don't really know, that this is a pretty distorted view of what comes out of the press reports about a possible realignment of European currencies from the meeting scheduled this coming weekend. Is there anything that we ought to know about that or are you in a position to tell us? 

MR. PARDEE. "It's just that we are caught in this box."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. GUFFEY.
text: I agree with Lyle that 50 basis points isn't going to make a lot of difference except for the psychological impact that that 50 basis points may have in the market. And we need it now, not at the end of March. 
speaker: MR. MARTIN.
text: It could have the same psychological impact we had the last time we made that move. 
speaker: MR. GUFFEY.
text: That's a risk. I'm just saying the risk is on the up side. 

MR. BOEHNE. "I think we have to ease the funds rate down to around 8 percent before a discount rate cut."

Full utterance: The last time it was done, it was done before the funds rate was dropped. I think we have to ease the funds rate down to around 8 percent before a discount rate cut.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: yes
Stance toward easing (NLI): contradiction
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. BLACK.
text: But I think we ought to be quite prepared to use the latitude in the federal funds range if the aggregates in fact do tend to come in higher than we are estimating. I think the economy is quite strong. I would not be surprised to see more strength than some of my colleagues think will be there. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN BURNS.
text: Thank you, Mr. Black. Mr. Morris now, please. 

MR. MORRIS. "Mr. Chairman, could I clarify your proposal?"


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. MELZER.
text: On the price side, we believe there is somewhat greater risk. But in general I would be quite satisfied if we achieved the 2.7 percent growth that the Board staff is looking for next year. As Mrs. Horn was saying, that sort of growth rate tends to facilitate the kind of adjustment that we need to see in order to get the trade situation into better balance. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: [The staff's forecast is] 2.8 percent, to be precise. A few people were talking about housing starts; a housing starts figure came out this morning, which I am sure Mr. Kichline can report to you. 

MR. KICHLINE. "It's a shade weaker than we had built into the forecast, but not much."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. BOEHNE.
text: That's a good point. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: The more I think about it, the more it strikes me as being subtly obvious. 
speaker: MR. BOEHNE.
text: Yes, I agree. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: We may actually be better off with the same legislation. 
speaker: MR. STERN.
text: We can make some changes without changing the Act. 

CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. "We can make a lot of changes ourselves because the statute itself is not all the explicit."

Full utterance: We can make a lot of changes ourselves because the statute itself is not all the explicit.

Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. COLDWELL.
text: I'm talking about publications. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN BURNS.
text: Well, that's what I wanted to clarify. 
speaker: MR. COLDWELL.
text: On the federal funds rate, I am disturbed about this concentration and limitation on the range. And I would hope if we are going to look at these widened ranges of M1 and M2 that we would also widen the range on the federal funds rate, and I would suggest to the Committee a 5-1/2 to 6-1/2 rate, which centers upon where the Desk is supposedly now, at 6 percent. One other comment, Mr. Chairman, to the general paragraphs of the directive-- 

CHAIRMAN BURNS. "May I just say I don't think that that recommendation is consistent with your recommendation on lowering the limits for M1."

Full utterance: May I just say I don't think that that recommendation is consistent with your recommendation on lowering the limits for M1. The reason for lowering the lower limit [on money] is not to tap lower interest rates very quickly. But if you permit the lower limit [of the federal funds rate] to go down to 5-1/2, you may be forced to do that--

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: yes
Stance toward easing (NLI): neutral
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. PARTEE.
text: I don't either. That's hard to do, of course, because it depends on what happens to the aggregates. 
speaker: MR. BOEHNE.
text: It's hard to do unless we specify a range, which captures that element. 
speaker: MR. MEEK.
text: Let me just say that I think the publication of these numbers, if they hold up, will itself change some expectations in the market about what we're likely to do in July and beyond. There could be a substantial sense-- 

CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. "Then we'd come to our federal funds limitation, anyway, at some point."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Why are you pessimistic on prices? 
speaker: MR. KEEHN.
text: Well, I think the exchange rate situation is likely to turn around a little; it seems to me that there are some underlying pressures there that will add to prices. And, frankly, it does seem to me that we have a monetary policy that provides a background in which the opportunity for price increases is really there. Over the last two or three months we have put a lot of money into the system and, if history is any guide, that ultimately ought to result in a higher level of prices. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Mr. Stern. 

MR. STERN. "You hear about layoffs in high-tech companies or one or two of the computer firms and you get the impression that employment is dropping, net; and yet you look at the data and [don't see it]."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: I think we can either put in 5 to 6 percent percent or 7 percent or less. Or we can change it to October through December and leave it at 7 percent. 
speaker: MR. PARTEE.
text: I think I prefer September to December, Paul. We [generally] follow this policy and I'd keep it. And I think 5 to 6 percent sounds like a quite respectful growth rate. 

CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. "Put 5 to 6 percent?"


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. JORDAN.
text: [Laughter] 
speaker: MR. BERNARD.
text: The directive language is: "In the implementation of policy for the immediate future, the Committee seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with decreasing the federal funds rate to an average of around 4-3/4 percent. In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developments, a slightly higher federal funds rate or a slightly lower federal funds rate would be acceptable in the intermeeting period. The contemplated reserve conditions are expected to be consistent with some moderation in growth in M2 and M3 over coming months." 
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: Call the roll. 

MR. BERNARD. "Vice Chairman McDonough Yes Governor Ferguson"


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. FERGUSON.
text: Also, I have a list of people from the last meeting who wanted to speak on this issue but we ran out of time 
speaker: MS. MINEHAN.
text: Oh, I'm sorry. Did I speak out of turn? 
speaker: MR. FERGUSON.
text: No, you did not speak out of turn. I recognized you, so by definition you didn't speak out of turn! 

CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. "We can go later than that if you want."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN MILLER.
text: Phil Coldwell. 
speaker: MR. COLDWELL.
text: Mr. Chairman, I find myself very compatible with what Paul Volcker just said. The 2 to 8 range seems terribly wide to me for M1 but I like the upper limit; the lower limit seems a bit low to me. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN MILLER.
text: Where would you put the lower limit? 

MR. COLDWELL. "[regarding] my expectations for the economy--that we are going to attack this inflation rate promptly and are likely to slow down the economy in the latter part of this year."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. PARTEE.
text: What happened to Richmond's projections? Is Richmond no longer in the projection business? 
speaker: MR. BLACK.
text: We began to have as many misses as the Board's staff, so-- 
speaker: MR. PARTEE.
text: So you gave it up? 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: I think it is correct to say, as of now anyway, that we're not going to resist the April bulge, whatever it is, beyond a federal funds rate of 20 percent. 

MR. SCHULTZ. "Unless we have a meeting."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. BLACK.
text: That is right. 
speaker: MR. MARTIN.
text: Hope over experience. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: That leaves us with 5 to 9 percent for the remainder of this year and 5 to 9 percent for next year. 
speaker: MR. PARTEE.
text: Well, the whole period could be spoken of as 5 to 9 percent. I wouldn't make that much of a distinction between the second half and next year. 

MR. BLACK. "You have to rewrite this."

Full utterance: You have to rewrite this.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MS. MINEHAN.
text: I think that's an important follow-up to your testimony as well. Whatever way we look at it, I think we're stuck with sentence 8. We're probably going to take grief from some quarters for this new language, but I think we're stuck with doing this. So I agree with your recommendation. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: President Broaddus. 

MR. BROADDUS. "Jack, of course, is the President of the Atlanta Fed, which is the Sixth Federal Reserve District."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. KELLEY.
text: "B," symmetric, Mr. Chairman. I really have no new thoughts to add to those that have already been suggested. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: President Boykin. 
speaker: MR. BOYKIN.
text: Mr. Chairman, I come out somewhere between "B" and "C," as a matter of fact, recognizing all of the concerns that have been expressed: Financial fragility--we've experienced some of that; credit rationing--we've experienced some of that, and we're still there. Granted, the players sure have changed. 

MR. BLACK. "Some of you are still there!"


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. BROADDUS.
text: The other thing that bothers me a little is that while I certainly have the sense that there has been an increase in trend productivity growth, I am uncertain how transitory it is and exactly what its magnitude is. So, I don't think the argument is absolutely ironclad. And if we go that route and try to explain it that way, that is going to involve our taking positions on things that I am not quite ready to take a position on yet. I don't see any particular reason to do that now. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: President Guynn. 

MR. GUYNN. "I don't know whether we are going to talk about that some more this morning or not."

Full utterance: I would like to join Bill Poole and Al Broaddus on the comments that you just heard. I, too, see considerable merit in moving in the direction of a more explicit inflation target. I don't know whether we are going to talk about that some more this morning or not. But particularly in the absence of such a target, I believe it is much smarter to leave the ranges alone for the moment. I think it could be distracting. We have some much more important policy work to do and I don't think we ought to confuse the message that we are sending to the public at the moment.

Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.
text: I myself just can't see anything out there that is going to get growth up into the 3 to 3-1/2 percent range as opposed to the 2 to 3 percent range. For a long time I thought housing could make the difference in terms of that marginal contribution, but I can't see that now either. Looking across the sectors of the economy at this point, it is just awfully hard to find sources of marginal growth that would get us to a bit more respectable range on a forecast basis. On top of that, the anecdotal reports that I, at least, am getting from business people and directors and so on--for what they are worth--are distinctly on the sour side. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Mrs. Horn. 

MS. HORN. "but I think now their view is that the fiscal impasse will remain an impasse."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. STERNLIGHT.
text: We thought we had a sure thing going with April because [the money supply in] April has bulged every year for the past 4 or 5 years it seems. 
speaker: MR. BALLES.
text: You can't believe in anything anymore, can you? 
speaker: MR. STERNLIGHT.
text: I'm not sure that I can pinpoint any special factor. I don't know if Steve wants to add anything. In New York our faces are even redder than those of the Board staff because we were anticipating an even greater bulge. 

MR. AXILROD. "My memory is that there is genuine weakness in the unadjusted deposits."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. ROOS.
text: But what really perplexes me, Mr. Chairman--and I don=t say this to be critical--is the fact that so many sitting here today can recognize, apparently all of a sudden, that one of the big problems we face is inflation and one of the big inhibiting factors that is stopping businessmen from engaging in capital formation projects is their concern about and their uncertainty with regard to inflation and that somehow, maybe somewhere along the line, monetary policy ought to concern itself with inflation. If that is literally something that is only occurring to us currently, Mr. Chairman, I don=t understand the rules of this game because we=ve all been talking about it for some time. I apologize for those remarks, but those are my observations. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN BURNS.
text: Thank you for your remarks, Mr. Roos. Mr.Willes now. 

MR. WILLES. "[Inflation] does seem to be a concern that more of our people have, and for that reason the major difference we have with the staff forecast is on their expectation of inflation."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. O'CONNELL.
text: Does that respond to your question? 
speaker: MR. JACKSON.
text: If we decide that we are not an agency covered by the statute, but do decide to publish as a public gesture the Committee rules of procedure, we are then not constrained as to time by the Administrative Procedures Act or the Sunshine Act, and therefore, we could publish our own voluntary and gratuitous disclosure any time prior to the effective date without having any time constraints otherwise. Is that correct? 
speaker: MR. O'CONNELL.
text: As I understand your inquiry, we can have up until the eve of March 12 to issue whatever form of statement we intended to issue with respect to our proposed practices, that's correct. Thus, we could await the Board [of Governors] action in publishing a finally adopted set of regulations in final form, which might, say, come out the week before March 12, to issue our FOMC statement at the same time. 

CHAIRMAN BURNS. "And let's take perhaps a short break, coffee break, if you so wish."

Full utterance: Gentlemen, let me just interrupt. I don't know why I was favored with this cup of coffee, but I was so favored, and therefore, if any of the rest of you would like coffee, you will not be so favored, but the coffee is right there. And let's take perhaps a short break, coffee break, if you so wish. Gentlemen, the coffee break is at an end. We'll defer the question of the appeal until we've taken up on the Sunshine legislation, and then return to that. Well, I'm sorry, first, [about having] to bring Sunshine legislation back to the Committee; and second, [about] not being prepared to make a recommendation. I think we need to know more before we act. But any advice that you may have, any thoughts that you may have, would be very helpful at this time.

Opinion: no