kakeith406/op-fed huggingface dataset:
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: That's what we're saying. 
speaker: MR. BLACK.
text: That's all it says. 
speaker: MR. PARTEE.
text: We're going to take a little precautionary snugging. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: That's comes as close to saying that as I can devise. 
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.
text: Well, I'll be glad to back off. 

MS. TEETERS. "A more honest way of saying it is when the economy shows some--"

Full utterance: A more honest way of saying it is when the economy shows some--

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: I think at this point I'd be inclined to put in "only slightly." "The action was taken against the background of M2 and M3 remaining slightly below the rates of growth of 9 and 8 percent respectively established earlier for the quarter and within their long-term ranges, M1 growing well above the anticipated levels for some time, and evidence of some acceleration in the rate of business recovery. Lesser restraint would be appropriate in the context of more pronounced slowing in growth of the broader monetary aggregates relative to the paths implied by the long-term ranges and a sharp deceleration of Ml." 
speaker: MR. GUFFEY.
text: Why put in that last part about deceleration of Ml? That again is raising its importance. 

MR. ROBERTS. "You have to put it in because that's the only reason we're talking about snugging."

Full utterance: You have to put it in because that's the only reason we're talking about snugging.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: yes
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: In a word we're saying this is our central feeling about the GNP and the central feeling is that velocity patterns probably haven't changed at all. That's what makes me uncomfortable. 
speaker: MR. ROBERTS.
text: If we had 6 percent growth in money, which is right in the middle of our range, and got a 10 percent middle range nominal GNP, assuming 3-1/2 percent velocity-- 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: That's what you have to assume--a 3-1/2 velocity, which would not be outrageous but is higher than the average somebody gave me for the second year. 
speaker: MR. ROBERTS.
text: Higher than the 2.7 we heard. 

CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. "That's what bothers me."

Full utterance: That's what bothers me about it, just in terms of explaining it. It seems to me that we'd have to say that for all this talking we've been doing about velocity changing, our forecast and our policy is based upon the notion that velocity hasn't changed. That's what bothers me.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. CORRIGAN.
text: By and large our directors who are involved in agriculture have a more optimistic outlook in terms of the inflation in agricultural prices, although in some cases it may be more pessimistic from their own self interest point of view. Abstracting from this overall international thing, my own view continues to be that in the near term--and by that I mean out, say, to the middle of 1984 anyway--the risks or dangers or whatever you want to call them are on the up side. What that really means in the context of Frank Morris' question--I think he was questioning when crowding out really will become a problem as opposed to the kind of problem it is now--is that it is probably going to be sooner rather than later. And, that's about it. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Mr. Black. 

MR. BLACK. "Even that looks a little better in that we have more signs of a pickup abroad now than we had maybe a month or so ago."

Full utterance: The press has been devoting a great deal of attention to discussing the possible slowdown occurring in the economy. But as we've gone around the table here, I think Jim Kichline and others have captured this very well with regard to the straws in the wind, which leads me to think that this a pretty normal, healthy sort of recovery and one that still doesn't need an undue [effort] on our part to prop it up. It looks as if the recovery is moving into a more mature stage now, and even abstracting from the shortage in automobile inventories and the elimination of some of the sales rebates, I think consumer spending has slowed some and housing has clearly slowed a great deal and probably will slow more. But now we are moving into the stage where I would think that inventory rebuilding and some expansion in capital expenditures would begin to assume part of that role. Really, the only weak thing of any significance that I see in the economy is the export sector. Even that looks a little better in that we have more signs of a pickup abroad now than we had maybe a month or so ago. I think we are in pretty good shape. I do agree with Jerry that there is a growth in protectionism in places we never expected to see, and I share his fear that these wage pressures are going to mount before we expect them to, although they do look darn good at the present time.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: I agree with that to the extent that if we get too aggressive--and we're talking in a limited range here, I understand--and take too many risks of having the aggregates and the economy moving up on us, it may help to bring a little glimmer of hope to the LDCs for three weeks, but then we will put an arrow through their hearts. 
speaker: MR. PARTEE.
text: You know, Paul, I think this language in the next sentence is just perfect. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Oh, I think the language covers it all right. 
speaker: MR. PARTEE.
text: The language, you notice, does not qualify less restraint but it does qualify more restraint by saying "somewhat" more restraint. And I think maybe that's a reasonable compromise. 

CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. "I don't have any trouble with the language."

Full utterance: I don't have any trouble with the language. I agree that the language in its general way covers what we're talking about. But it doesn't mention the international situation explicitly. I don't know whether that's wise anyway.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. ROBERTS.
text: Just a quick question on Schroeder, Meunchmeyer, [Hengst & Company]: Did they have a lot of foreign exchange positions in the market? Was it a fairly small bank? 
speaker: MR. CROSS.
text: There were no foreign exchange implications in that problem. It was local. 
speaker: MR. ROBERTS.
text: Just the bank? 

VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON. "They would all expect the price of gold to go up instead of going down."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. KICHLINE.
text: They are close to the increase in 1975, but are substantially above the cyclical performance for the first year of a recovery. Two comments with regard to that spread-- 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: If I may just interrupt you: The increase in profits is stronger? 
speaker: MR. KICHLINE.
text: Correct. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: How about the relationship of profits to GNP or corporate product? 

MR. KICHLINE. "So, it has done very well as a share or absolutely."

Full utterance: Well, it's up because the profit share and notional margins have been rising. We think it will be at the highest level at the end of this year since 1977-78--a six-year high. So, it has done very well as a share or absolutely. Two particular comments: First, going back to the staff's inflation presentation, we believe that corporations essentially price off some notion of unit labor cost and a markup over that. In effect, what they're doing is looking at some notion of trend growth in productivity; and trend growth in productivity, we think, is better than they may be using. So, it is showing up here in terms of attempts to price fairly aggressively and they're getting more profits than they might otherwise think. My second point is a technical comment: In measuring the GNP deflator, as you know, import prices are subtracted out in the short run. In the first half of this year import prices actually declined and were about unchanged in the third quarter, so that for much of this year we think that substraction process has artificially raised the GNP deflator because the benefits of those import prices measured in consumption, investment, or whatever, come along with a lag. So, our story is that this has been an unusual year.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: And everybody is for discipline. 
speaker: MR. WALLICH.
text: If you get very flexible, somebody will come and push you. 
speaker: MR. MARTIN.
text: Not if you have a chance. 
speaker: MR. BLACK.
text: Not if you have flexible discipline. They can't push you but so far. 

CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. "There was not any great consensus for either one of those, but if you added together all the people who thought there should be a little reduction in one or the other, there was some sentiment"


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. AXILROD.
text: Yes. Our estimates indicate a relatively low [or slightly negative growth] and assume excess reserves a little lower than I think is going to be the case at the end of this month. For March we would have a drop in total reserves but I think it is best to assume that reserves are about unchanged following the 19 percent increase. And the monetary base is falling to only a small increase of 2 to 3 percent. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: What do you have for nonborrowed reserves? 

MR. AXILROD. "We have a drop of around 7 percent, but I think a lot of that is the distortions of the excess and required reserves in March."

Full utterance: Well, we have a drop there also, and it may even have dropped a little more than [our estimate]. We have a drop of around 7 percent, but I think a lot of that is the distortions of the excess and required reserves in March. It looks as if they are increasing about the same as they increased in February--at about an 8 percent annual rate. So this variation is largely the variation in excess reserves and some variation in borrowing. It's a sort of sustained expansion in the reserves that is providing the base for the deposit expansion.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: yes
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: I heard a motion and second. Without objection. We will continue at 9:15 a.m. tomorrow. 
speaker: MR. KICHLINE.
text: [Statement--see Appendix.] 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Any comments? 

MR. BOEHNE. "Well, I'll lead off."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. WALLICH.
text: And I'm concerned that the makings of a stronger and longer expansion are likely to leave us eventually out on a limb with high rates of inflation. Well, I guess I've expressed no more than my usual prejudice on the subject. 
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.
text: Would you be reassured if we all thought there would be a recession in '86? 
speaker: MR. WALLICH.
text: I would certainly be reassured, but I would prefer then to try to modulate that rather than run into it helter skelter. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Governor Martin. 

MR. MARTIN. "As for capacity utilization, it's difficult to factor in all that retrofitting of plant into the bare number of the domestic capacity utilization and, unfortunately, no one has figured a really good way to figure the capacity utilization of all those thousands of firms around the Pacific Basin and in Europe and the developing countries that are selling to us."


Opinion: yes
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. BOEHNE.
text: Does anybody have any sense as to whether that indeed has been successful and what the outlook for its success is? 
speaker: MR. CROSS.
text: Well, it's awfully hard to speak very generally. The conditions vary a great deal from country to country and situation to situation. Obviously, the Canadians found great difficulty in keeping their interest rates very far away from reflecting the rise in ours. The Germans have been seeking to avoid following the increases in U.S. interest rates but, as I said here, it has resulted in quite large amounts of intervention in the exchange market. 

CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. "The two most marked examples, I think, are the Canadians and the British."

Full utterance: Let me make a general comment on the subject. More generally, as I read the situation, economic developments abroad are quite unsatisfactory in terms even of earlier expectations, which weren't all that buoyant. I don't want to overdramatize this, but they are just not moving with any speed and alacrity. I don't think there's any doubt that our interest rates are complicating things. The two most marked examples, I think, are the Canadians and the British. The British talk proudly about decoupling; they don't think they're decoupled today. They've had problems domestically that have aggravated this situation, but they are very unhappy about having to see this very sharp increase in interest rates that they currently have when the economy is doing nothing and they have a 12 percent unemployment rate. In Canada, the unemployment rate is between 11 and 12 percent. It has sat there for a long time even though the economy is growing, mainly because of exports to the United States. On the continent of Europe and in Japan, the economies are not exceeding our earlier expectations, which weren't all that buoyant. If anything, they're falling a bit below. Is that true, Mr. Truman?

Opinion: yes
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Theoretically, tomorrow--but who knows about these theories--there's going to be a lot of borrowing and the funds rate is going to be 9 percent or 10 percent maybe at 3:00 in the afternoon. In fact, the funds rate is going to be 18 percent and [a major bank] is going to come in and borrow $2 billion because the funds rate is 18 percent! Now, there may be a miss here in the figures, so I think this is just a question that's-- 
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.
text: Since it doesn't get published for 6 weeks, it seems to me that-- 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: It doesn't make that much difference probably, but--. 

VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON. "We could probably leave it simply "reduce somewhat" and not worry about the fact that since Thursday and today there has been--"

Full utterance: I don't know; the general trend is down. We could probably leave it simply "reduce somewhat" and not worry about the fact that since Thursday and today there has been--

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. GUFFEY.
text: It may not have the national impact, much as he has suggested, but that does not mean that there will not be great social and other disruptions in that area. And indeed, it could get out of hand. I would also want to note quickly, having talked to the Farm Credit people, bankers, large input suppliers to the agricultural sector, as well as to some Congressmen, that I fairly well concluded that there is not a great deal that monetary policy can do to alleviate that problem, at least in the very near term--I'm talking about 1985 and quite likely 1986. I'm not sure that there is a role for this Committee with respect to taking action to try to alleviate the problem that rests in the agricultural sector. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Mr. Boykin. 

MR. BOYKIN. "Now that that is a very real situation, they are saying: "Well, when it gets to $20 we're going to have some real problems.""


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. MORRIS.
text: I am encouraged by signs that I see in the financial markets in response to what we have done already. There is strength in the stock market; I am very impressed at the response in the long-term bond market, where we have gotten more bang than I expected we would get. And so far as the consumer sector is concerned, the Michigan Survey of consumer confidence, which had been tending to show some deterioration in the last six months, turned up again pretty substantially in the month of June. So, it just seems to me that the level of pessimism around here is a little beyond what the situation merits, and that is one reason our forecast is significantly higher than the Board staff's forecast. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Mr. Keehn. 

MR. KEEHN. "But there are other parts of the economy--autos, for example--that are doing well and as I talk to people about next year they continue to think they are going to have a good year next year."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Governor Partee. 
speaker: MR. PARTEE.
text: I was just going to refer to chart 2 here too, Dave, which is the lagged relationship. It certainly doesn't look very good. Indeed, it looks to me as if these last four quarters have been just about as bad as it can get if one assumes that the only reason we follow M1 is for its predictive relationship to GNP. Did you try other kinds of lags and more complicated lags or anything like that in your effort to make sense of this? 

MR. LINDSEY. "The leading relationships in the '80s, which I am not at all sure are as systematic as the monetarists would have us believe, show up best for M1 and less so for M2."


Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: yes
Stance toward easing (NLI): neutral
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. PARTEE.
text: I think we do have a window of opportunity. There is a good deal of expectation that this will happen in the market. I think the budget balancing bill--I doubt too that it's going to materialize as a serious move--but it gives a basis or reasoning that I think even foreigners could understand. And so-- 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: [Unintelligible.] 

MR. PARTEE. "After all, this is the most serious effort that has been made in a great many years to move consistently toward a balanced budget."

Full utterance: Well, it might happen. After all, this is the most serious effort that has been made in a great many years to move consistently toward a balanced budget. And I think it will have a psychological effect so far as new programs are concerned.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Presumably, we don't want to go with short-term targets down to the 1/4 of a percentage point. When I look at "B" I would assume that we don't want to go with 5-3/4 or 6-3/4 percent. 
speaker: SPEAKER(?).
text: As I understand Steve's earlier comments, "B" is roughly consistent with what we had initially specified. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Well, we said 6 to 8 percent then, so it is fine for M3 and it is okay for Ml. It isn't okay for M2, just talking-- 

MR. AXILROD. "That's what I was [thinking]--rounding in my head a bit."

Full utterance: That's what I was [thinking]--rounding in my head a bit.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: yes
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. ANGELL.
text: Just taking that away might create a more stable climate, which would give us more options. 
speaker: MR. MELZER.
text: You said we could take that away unilaterally. It would have to be in the context of the agreement with the Treasury. 
speaker: MR. ANGELL.
text: I think that's [unintelligible] maybe. 
speaker: MR. MELZER.
text: In which case there might be so much confusion-- 

CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. "A more active mode in which to put it is to take one example, one Wayne took: If we see a positive desirability of doing it if we can get something out of the [other countries], that is one possibility."

Full utterance: [Unintelligible] could have a big fight about it. More generally, putting the question operationally, there have been times in the past when, quite on its own, the Open Market Committee was not very eager to intervene and--to exaggerate a bit--had to be dragged kicking and screaming to the table. I don't sense that such an atmosphere exists now, under the appropriate circumstances, but I want to confirm that. That's just the broadest way to put it. A more active mode in which to put it is to take one example, one Wayne took: If we see a positive desirability of doing it if we can get something out of the [other countries], that is one possibility.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. MORRIS.
text: So, I find this very disturbing. For months I have been thinking that monetary policy has been doing everything it could to produce a healthy economy. I am less confident of that today because of the seeming failure of the real economy to respond to what the financial economy has been doing. 
speaker: MR. BLACK.
text: It looks like the string we're pushing on is a wet string! 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Mr. Boykin. 

MR. BOYKIN. "Not only has our situation gotten a little worse, we expect it to deteriorate even further and possibly at a bit faster pace."

Full utterance: Well, Mr. Chairman, as I have been reporting, things have not been going all that well in our District. The Eleventh District economy seems to be about the weakest in the country. Not only has our situation gotten a little worse, we expect it to deteriorate even further and possibly at a bit faster pace. The Texas unemployment rate in June rose to 10-1/2 percent, and that's the highest level in modern times, certainly, for Texas. New Mexico and Louisiana expect to show increases in unemployment when their data become available. The last report for Louisiana was 13 percent and that's probably on the way up. As conditions worsen in energy, construction, and manufacturing, that is having some fairly severe effects on our financial institutions. If you read the papers, it's pretty hard not to see one of our Texas organizations being featured in one of the articles. Their performance has really not been all that good! Looking at it from a supervisory standpoint, we don't [rate] our major bank holding companies very high from a supervisory level! Those that seem to be doing a little better we wonder about, because some of their major subsidiaries haven't been examined for a year or year and a half and that makes us a little concerned over what the true situation might be. Now, I tried very hard to find some positive elements of strength in our District to report this time, but I just was not successful. Aside from this regional report, though, I continue to feel with regard to the broader picture that there will be some modest pickup in the second half of this year. Our forecast is in the middle of the forecasts of the Reserve Bank presidents. And we think this is sustainable into 1987, if there's some monetary stimulus that comes about to offset the economic drag of the uncertainties that are inherent in the fiscal environment.

Opinion: yes
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. PARRY.
text: Isn't this the same discussion as last time? I think it was 7 to 9 percent, the same numbers. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: What we did was encompass different numbers for the two. I don't care: either 7 to 9 percent or about 8 percent. 
speaker: MR. ANGELL.
text: 7 to 9. 

CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. "I detect no realistic difference between "about 8" and "7 to 9.""

Full utterance: I detect no realistic difference between "about 8" and "7 to 9." This says "about 7 to 9" and maybe that is a difference. We have a nuance of difference.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: no