kakeith406/op-fed huggingface dataset:
Prior discussion:
speaker: MS. MINEHAN.
text: But with strong continuing forward momentum in economic activity, tight labor markets, and indications of incipient if not fully realized asset bubbles, I think there are real danger signs. You have mentioned, Mr. Chairman, the need over the near term to think about tightening monetary policy. I am very much in agreement with that. I wanted to interject this note of caution from the financial as opposed to the real side of the economy, but I am, as I said, in favor of your recommendation at this meeting. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: Governor Phillips. 

MS. PHILLIPS. "Should we tighten in August or early fall, we would look rather foolish if we had just removed the bias."

Full utterance: I agree with "B" asymmetric. Since inflation and pipeline inflation look pretty benign, it seems to me that there is time to see whether the economy will slow to a more sustainable growth rate. With regard to symmetry, since there is more likelihood that we are going to tighten than to ease and since we adopted an asymmetric directive at the last meeting, I think the asymmetry should be continued. Should we tighten in August or early fall, we would look rather foolish if we had just removed the bias. I continue to believe that we will have to tighten in view of the strong labor and equity markets, but it does seem to me that there is time to let the situation develop a bit. At 5-1/2 percent, the federal funds rate may not be that far out of alignment, particularly as long rates have come down. So, I think we should conserve our monetary tools for now.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: yes
Stance toward easing (NLI): entailment
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Unless anybody has a further question, we ought to vote. 
speaker: MR. WALLICH.
text: I find confusing the reference to credit flows. Is that specifically what we mention as total-- 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Where are you? 
speaker: MR. MARTIN.
text: Page 4. 

MR. WALLICH. "It's on page 4."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. TRUMAN.
text: They existed--and that was the problem! 
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.
text: Could I clarify something? What Governor Mancera said just a couple of hours ago was that, if before the end of the day today he is informed that we the United States are willing to make these $2 billion available, he would envision when he announces his reserve figures to say that they have X, say $2.4 to $2.8 billion, and in addition, because I don't think we can get value to them today, that he had agreement from the Federal Reserve and the Exchange Stabilization Fund for an additional $2 billion, value tomorrow presumably. So he will lay it out accurately, I think. 
speaker: MR. TRUMAN.
text: I think the major concern--and that is only partly addressed by this since we tentatively plan, at the moment anyhow, to lock up funds--is that announcing he has $2.4 billion in reserves, given the kind of problems he is up against, does make him look rather naked. 

MR. LINDSEY. "The document came from Treasury International Affairs."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: "...the existing degree of pressure on reserve positions. This action is expected to be consistent with growth in M2 and M3 over the period from November to March at an annual rate of 6 to 8 percent; while the behavior of M1 continues to be subject to unusual uncertainty, growth at an annual rate of 7 to 9 percent is anticipated. Somewhat greater reserve restraint..." What do you want to do with these "woulds" and "mights"? 
speaker: MR. MARTIN.
text: Rephrase it "might" and "would." 

CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. "Leave it "might" and "would"?"


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. DUDLEY.
text: It's quite a bit smaller share of total outstanding because the average life of the subprime mortgage loan, I'm told, is only two or three years. In other words, if your credit quality improves, you will refinance out of your subprime mortgage into a higher quality mortgage. So originations are 24 percent, but the actual number of subprimes that are actually outstanding is much lower. 
speaker: MR. REINHART.
text: We reported in yesterday's briefing that subprime borrowers constituted only about 13 percent of all mortgages outstanding. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.
text: President Lacker. 

MR. LACKER. "So the presumption would be that such information gets taken on board and reflected in the prices of new mortgage-backed securities and that it would translate into higher credit spreads at the retail level."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: [Secretary's note: Messrs. Black, Ford, Roos and Winn raised their hands.] 
speaker: MR. BALLES.
text: And the next question is who is not at least strongly-- 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Well, let's have the other extreme now. Who feels strongly that we should not? [Secretary's note: Mr. Gramley raised his hand.] 

MR. GRAMLEY. "On the basis of cost to banks alone."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. PARTEE.
text: I was thinking more of, say, some of these banks who at least partially lost their access to the Euro-markets. They might have to come back in for a rather substantial loan. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Well, it's easier at that point to adjust for it, but in the initial stages it's likely to be hazy. 
speaker: MR. PARTEE.
text: Yes. I see. 

MS. TEETERS. "I would guess we ought to go to $175 million [rather than] $200 million, but I don't think it makes a lot of difference."

Full utterance: Mr. Chairman, I can accept Tony's formulation of this. I would guess we ought to go to $175 million [rather than] $200 million, but I don't think it makes a lot of difference. I also find myself a little [uneasy], given the length of time until the next meeting and all these uncertainties. I'm not necessarily suggesting a full blown FOMC meeting, but I think it would very wise if a couple weeks into January we at least got updated on where we were.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: yes
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. DUDLEY.
text: Most dealers expect either a cut of 75 or 100 basis points: There are eight for 100 basis points, ten for 75 basis points, and two for 50 basis points. This compares with the slightly more than 100 basis points built into the April federal funds rate contract (yesterday the April fed funds contract implied a 1.95 percent effective fed funds rate for the month). There were no foreign operations during this period. I request a vote to ratify the operations conducted by the System Open Market Account since the January 30-31 FOMC meeting. Of course, I am very happy to take questions. 

CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. "Vice Chairman."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.
text: Well, they start with the government forecast which is 3 percent plus--say, 3-1/2 to 4 percent. Then they talk a little about the Bank of Japan forecast and shave a half point off that. Then they start wriggling in terms of their own forecasts, so with the body english, I ended up with 2 percent or less. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: That is where the Germans are. It's not very exciting. 

VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN. "And some worry, especially in the Japanese case, that they are really taking a terrible beating in their manufacturing sector now."

Full utterance: And some worry, especially in the Japanese case, that they are really taking a terrible beating in their manufacturing sector now. So, as I said, I guess today I am a little influenced by that.

Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. BOEHNE.
text: That's why I like variant I without a number. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: You have expressed my gut feeling. I think that we send a better substantive message without a number--and we don't know what the number means anyway. 
speaker: MR. MELZER.
text: Okay, if you accept that part, how do you get away from the fact that we're walking away from a narrow aggregate target at all? It's not that M1 is the right one, but how do we get back into that ball game down the road? 

CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. "So we're going to be very vague anyway."

Full utterance: Well, I don't interpret it that way. Given all the difficulties of explaining this, that is not my feeling. Unfortunately, the fact of the matter is that we are in a situation where we can't interpret M1 in terms of anything like an appropriate growth rate. So we're going to be very vague anyway.

Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. PARTEE.
text: "From market instruments." We're not talking from M1 up to M2. 
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.
text: From market instruments and large CDs. 
speaker: MR. CORRIGAN.
text: That's why I think that sentence has to be limited to M2. 
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN SOLOMON.
text: Right, it should be limited to M2. 

CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. "This states it the other way around, resulting from the introduction of the new money market accounts."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: That might be more useful than anything else. 
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.
text: I didn't mean literally within the box. All I meant to say is that I thought it should not be buried on page 28 of the testimony--that it should get some prominence. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Page 16? 
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.
text: You know what I mean! 

CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. "The trouble is that this is getting too complicated, obviously."

Full utterance: I think we could have a discussion of Ml. Maybe we could mention studies and all of this other stuff. I didn't look at it very carefully, but I think we could say that we are not ignoring it, but that we find ourselves unable just to give a simple range that encompasses all the significance of it. [How we view] it would depend upon circumstances, and we can try to describe the circumstances. The trouble is that this is getting too complicated, obviously. The basic point that we would make is that we think M1 has a lot of interest elasticity and an increase or a decrease should not be a surprise if there are changes in interest rates that may be appropriate for other reasons.

Opinion: yes
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. BOEHNE.
text: It is difficult to find a builder in the District who is not feeling that. I think low mortgage rates and the perception that mortgage rates have bottomed out have been a stimulus. But at least for the Philadelphia District, with existing home sales much slower than new home sales and population growth slow in the mid-Atlantic region, I think one has to be skeptical about the sustainability of the rapid increase in new home sales. Nonetheless, for a District that has been rather sluggish for a long time, a spur in residential construction is welcome at this point. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: President Hoenig. 

MR. HOENIG. "Moreover, all seven states in the District added jobs at a fairly robust pace in January."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.
text: Okay. Why don't we take fifteen minutes for coffee, and then we'll do part of the go-round. Thank you. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.
text: Well, why don't we turn part of our dinner period to the go-round. Let's start with President Lockhart. 

MR. LOCKHART. "The sentiment of directors and their contacts has turned decidedly more pessimistic regarding current economic conditions and the near-term outlook."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. AXILROD.
text: We've assumed in the Bluebook that if the path were $450 million and it was successfully hit, probably there would be some little upward tick in the funds rate, but maybe not a lot. I would assume that $350 million at a minimum would probably avoid that; whether that would cause the funds rate to drop initially, I feel more agnostic about. 
speaker: MR. STERNLIGHT.
text: I wouldn't disagree with that. I would tend to think of something like $250 million of borrowing as perhaps likely to keep the funds rate just around the discount rate, $350 million maybe 1/4 percentage point over it, and $450 million a little more--maybe 1/2 point--over it. 
speaker: MS. TEETERS.
text: To what extent does the discount rate act as a floor? 

MR. STERNLIGHT. "The discount rate becomes a kind of anchor around which the funds rate clusters once there's enough borrowing to make that discount rate meaningful."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MS. JOHNSON.
text: But it would be a real gamble on our part to conclude that it wasn't, at least in some important sense, due to the administrative measures that they took. I don't think the officials are so unable to have a consequence with their policy tools, such as they are, if they are really determined--and they certainly seemed to be determined. Thus I would attribute much of the figure to the administrative measures, but we can't rule out some capacity constraints here and there. 
speaker: MR. FISHER.
text: Thank you, Mr. Chairman. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN BERNANKE.
text: President Plosser. 

MR. PLOSSER. "That distinction is part of it, as is whether the way you estimate the cyclical component of employment and so forth affects the forecast and whether it adjusts very quickly or very slowly in shaping the picture going forward, particularly into 2007 and 2008."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN GEITHNER.
text: They are in place today. They are exceptionally significant in terms of a change in policy. They are there because we think they are playing an important role in helping facilitate the necessary process of repairing markets et cetera. If we were going to take them back tomorrow or dial them back substantially, then I would be willing to rationalize and explain that part of the judgment is that we think things are improving materially. I just feel as though the risk is too high. 

CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. "I think the Vice Chairman raises an interaction that I hadn't thought of, which is that our facilities are existing under the premise of unusual and exigent circumstances, and we don't really want to undercut that."

Full utterance: I think the Vice Chairman raises an interaction that I hadn't thought of, which is that our facilities are existing under the premise of unusual and exigent circumstances, and we don't really want to undercut that. President Fisher.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. KELLEY.
text: I think they're bundled. That's Larry's word and I think he's correct. I think if we go one route, turning the tape recorder off is a much more sensible way to go. If we go with either alternative number 3 or number 4, then I think we leave the tapes on and get permission to erase them from the Archivist. 

MR. ANGELL. "Now, if you want to make a substitute motion and reverse the order, that's your privilege."

Full utterance: But, Mike, one person thinks one way and one thinks the other. A motion has been made and seconded. Now, if you want to make a substitute motion and reverse the order, that's your privilege.

Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: In that sense, every loss is an error. The issue is to define the error. 
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH.
text: I agree that we are going to need that information for our testimony, which is being prepared by some of the people who are sitting at the end of this table. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: If we indicate what we are doing to find the answers, that is fine. This to me is where the issue of the responsiveness of the Federal Reserve is going to be. 

VICE CHAIRMAN MCDONOUGH. "What did we learn there?"


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: First, may I have a motion to approve the minutes? 
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.
text: So move. 
speaker: SPEAKER(?).
text: Second. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: Without objection. Mr. Prell, would you like to start us off? 

MR. PRELL. "Dave will begin."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. PARTEE.
text: Do they classify them as real estate? 
speaker: MR. BALLES.
text: Yes. 
speaker: MR. PARTEE.
text: So they are primarily secured by the real estate. 
speaker: MR. BALLES.
text: The second deed of trust. And it's not just the banks, it's the S&Ls, too, that are doing it. 

MR. ROOS. "And the farmer's ability to repay in many instances is limited by the income that he can earn off of working that land."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. JORDAN.
text: So, why not explain that this is not a target and that we don't really have targets. We can set up monitoring ranges for M1 and the base, which might be useful for some purposes [in terms of] where we think they may fall, but they're not targets for the Committee. What is a target is either nominal GDP or various real indicators. And for better or worse, if that's the way the Committee is conducting its affairs, then I think that ought to be explained. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: President Keehn. 

MR. KEEHN. "In a perfect world, frankly, that's what I'd prefer."

Full utterance: Mr. Chairman, as you went through your opening comments I completely agreed with what you said and how you said it but, honestly, I thought you were coming to a different conclusion. I thought you made a very good case for leaving the ranges where they were and not making a change. In a perfect world, frankly, that's what I'd prefer. But I do understand that we aren't in a perfect world and that there are some political perceptions out there that we need to deal with. But there seem to have been enough changes since the correspondence we received indicating that we might reduce our ranges--and certainly the incoming data for this year suggest that the numbers are moving even further away from our expectations--that one could make a case that developments have taken place that make a change not seem appropriate. The uncertainties are very, very significant and, therefore, I would leave the ranges where they are. I'd prefer to keep them where we tentatively set them last July, but I certainly don't feel strongly enough about it to dissent. Therefore, I would support the case that you made because you seem to feel more comfortable in a political context with what you've said, and I'd support that.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: yes
Stance toward easing (NLI): contradiction
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. WALLICH.
text: Manufacturing. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Mr. Truman has a subtotal of 100 percent capacity utilization. 
speaker: MR. TRUMAN.
text: Yes, but that's with no give. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: I think that is probably exaggerated a little. 
speaker: MR. TRUMAN.
text: That is simply the counterpart to your [85] percent. 

CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. "That's not going to happen that fast."

Full utterance: That's not going to happen that fast. But the tendency, with a sharp enough decline in the dollar, would be in that direction.

Opinion: yes
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: The most recent observations are on top of the fitted line, so we would expect a little more of a drift. 
speaker: MR. SIMPSON.
text: It could alter the slope. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN.
text: I don't know how significant it is, but it does raise some questions. Since we have so few observations, it is not clear to me what is happening. President Parry. 

MR. PARRY. "So, this exhibit seems encouraging to me, but it also illustrates that it would be a mistake to assume that velocity is now stable."

Full utterance: Also with reference to Exhibit 3, it seems to me that developments in the last couple of years clearly are encouraging. If we focus on the bottom panel of the exhibit, it also seems clear that velocity is continuing to change. In particular, if one had run that regression to include the forecast period, it would have produced a different velocity. So, this exhibit seems encouraging to me, but it also illustrates that it would be a mistake to assume that velocity is now stable.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: yes
Stance toward easing (NLI): ambiguous
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. PARTEE.
text: We will have capital spending picking up as time goes on. I think government purchases, federal and state and local, which have been rather weak for the last two years, are going to be a source of considerably greater strength in the period to come. And so even though we do have in prospect a quarter or two of lesser real growth, I still think that the business recovery is alive and well and will be continued in '78 and that we ought to think in terms of that continued expansion as we try to develop policy prescriptions. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN BURNS.
text: Thank you, Mr. Partee. Mr. Roos now, please. 

MR. ROOS. "In looking back over the year and a half that I've had the privilege of attending these meetings, and listening to inputs such as we're presently providing, that year and a half in terms of business conditions has been a strong period."

Full utterance: Mr. Chairman, I find myself, as a non-economist, somewhat confused. In looking back over the year and a half that I've had the privilege of attending these meetings, and listening to inputs such as we're presently providing, that year and a half in terms of business conditions has been a strong period. We've had basically good business, we've had strong output nationally. And yet, I think with the exception, perhaps, of one or two meetings, as we go around the table, so many of us have attempted to express concerns and doubts and rather pessimistic attitudes toward what is in our minds; we imagine [things] of a negative nature to be lurking just around the corner. And one of the things that confuses me is what seems to be somewhat of an absence of a real definition of what we would consider to be a healthy economy. I mean, we speak in relative terms so often. And if we feel that a slowdown in output from a 7 percent rate of growth to 5-1/2 is something that is really bad, that [it] should be a cause for alarm, then perhaps we have a right to feel some concern about where we're going.

Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. HELLER.
text: There is good reason to maintain the current posture, especially in view of the high dollar that we're seeing at the present time. If you see a marked turnaround in markets, international or domestic, then I'd say in two or three weeks, or whenever that occurs, we can have a conference call and change our policy posture as may be appropriate at that particular time. So, I'd be for the $550 million borrowing assumption and a conference call. I don't know whether a conference call means we are asymmetric or not. I think I'd rather have the Committee take action than have the Desk automatically do it. 

CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. "The asymmetric language indicates the direction in which the Desk would be leaning without necessarily acting."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.
text: I'll move it. 
speaker: MS.   SEGER.
text: Second. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Without objection. Mr. Kichline. 
speaker: MR. KICHLINE.
text: [Statement--see Appendix.] 

CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. "Is it basically lower interest rates, or what?"


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: SEVERAL. Yes. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: I don't think we can write that into the directive. 
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN.
text: When do we meet again? 
speaker: MR. BERNARD.
text: May 20th--7 weeks. 

VICE CHAIRMAN CORRIGAN. "Well, my instincts tell me that sentence probably should be symmetrical even though 7 weeks is a long time."

Full utterance: Well, my instincts tell me that sentence probably should be symmetrical even though 7 weeks is a long time. I don't think we can rule out the possibility, even though I don't see it, that the economy could pick up even faster than most people are assuming.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: no