kakeith406/op-fed huggingface dataset:
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN BURNS.
text: Mr. Winn now, please. 
speaker: MR. WINN.
text: Mr. Chairman, I feel quite inadequate in trying to assess the psychological aspects of many of the current developments, but I feel rather strongly that the economic underlying factors are quite strong, and we may even see them stronger as the inventory scramble adds on to some of these other efforts here, as the inflation psychology builds to even a greater extent. I'd be inclined at this moment to indicate some decline in all of the items, and I would join with Mr. Wallich and Baughman. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN BURNS.
text: Thank you, Mr. Winn. Mr. Gardner now, please. 

MR. GARDNER. "We are asked to do this tentatively, subject to our afterthoughts after the President's program is announced, and for that reason I would be happy with leaving M1 alone at the moment."

Full utterance: I hope to be brief. The economic [situation], as Willis has just indicated, is clearly buoyant. It has rekindled more specific fears of inflation. We have to expect that. That was bound to happen whenever the economic data became clearly positive. It seems remarkable to me that with the dispensing of the rebate program, we've gone from fears of too much stimulus to fears based on the yet unannounced energy program, which clearly will have some significant impact, depending on its reception and development in the Congress. I often have taken the position of staying in place. I think clearly it is appropriate for us to continue reducing our targets or our ranges. I would support the reduction in M2 and M3 that is proposed; I would support a reduction in M2 as shown in alternative B, and M3 a half point on either end. But I think the principle is more important. I think we should make some changes. We are asked to do this tentatively, subject to our afterthoughts after the President's program is announced, and for that reason I would be happy with leaving M1 alone at the moment. We do have to look, in a minute, at where we are with M1 and where we will be in the next quarter with M1. And so I would support either a 7 to 9-1/2 or 6-1/2 to 9-1/2 for M2. Commensurately, an 8 to 11 or 8-1/2 to 11 for M3. I think that is the important action to be taken today--a one-year adoption which we will of course review again in three months.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: yes
Stance toward easing (NLI): entailment
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. MORRIS.
text: Mr. Chairman, could I clarify your proposal? Do I understand you properly that you keep the funds rate at around 5-1/4 and only move it up if we were hitting the higher part of the ranges? 
speaker: CHAIRMAN BURNS.
text: No, I would use the federal funds rate range in the normal fashion, and the federal funds rate now is closer to 5-3/8 than it is to 5-1/4--that's my understanding. And I would leave it where it is for a week or so, and then depending on how our estimates of the monetary aggregates come in, move within the indicated range. But the [center point of the] indicated range that I suggested is asymmetrical. 

MR. MORRIS. "Well, I think that my feeling, Mr. Chairman, is that we ought to make a bigger move right now."

Full utterance: Well, I think that my feeling, Mr. Chairman, is that we ought to make a bigger move right now. I think the economy is very strong. I think the lull that Mr. Partee and Mr. Eastburn speak of is certainly a possibility, but I don't see in the indicators any evidence that it's probable. We are faced with this April bulge in the money supply, which means that even if the staff's projections are correct for May and June, that we are going to come out with a very high M1 number. And in order to meet the midpoint of our longer-term ranges, this would mean M1 growth at 4 percent and M2 at 6.8 for the subsequent three quarters, and that, gentlemen, if our forecast is correct, is going to be very difficult to do. It seems to me that we need to take out some insurance today against the May and June aggregates coming in higher. And therefore, I would propose a funds range of 5 to 6 percent, with the Manager instructed to move to 5-1/2 next week. Now, unlike Mr. Partee, I don't view the spring of 1975 experience as a mistake. It seems to me that that's sort of the model that we ought to be thinking of in this kind of context. Because it seems to me that the move we made for the spring of 1975--because it was reversed rapidly as the evidence came in showing that we didn't have a permanent increase in the demand for money--we didn't harm the economy. But if we had been right, and there was a big increase in the demand for money, we would have been in a much better posture to meet it, and--

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: yes
Stance toward easing (NLI): entailment
Prior discussion:
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: I think that's right, and I don't think we need to know specifically which approach will be adopted in the end. I think we need to know that one of the three will be adopted. That decision, I think, should be made today. 
speaker: MR. MAYO.
text: So the decision is basically whether the facility is worthwhile or not? 
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: Although, I guess in applying for the ruling, [we] will have to apply either in our [Federal Reserve Bank of New York] name or the System name, won't we. 

MR. O'CONNELL. "Yes, I think that, too, can be a matter to await a decision."

Full utterance: Yes, I think that, too, can be a matter to await a decision. I agree with President Mayo that, at this time--or, may I suggest, Mr. Chairman, the [discussion], first, as to whether or not you will continue this operation, is appropriate; and then, whatever sense of the Committee [is] in terms of the alternative, to follow that.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. WALLICH.
text: But at the same time, I see some things that suggest to me that strongly expansive factors may be at work, especially the federal deficit. We've got a rise in the federal deficit projected in a range, I guess, of $10 billion to $15 billion. And state and local expenditures, which I haven't observed, apparently are growing very sharply--there may be some overlap here. Can you give us an evaluation of these conflicting elements pushing very strongly and yet the overall tendency [going] toward slowing down? 

MR. ZEISEL. "But on the negative side, we've had an extremely rapid recovery recently in residential construction activity."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. MAYO.
text: The absurdity of that has stayed with me to this day and, I guess, colors what I have to say. End of second speech. 
speaker: MR. AXILROD.
text: President Mayo, I think there might be a misunderstanding of how we make the projections. The projections for the period between Committee meetings--well, we have a variety of projections, and models, and what have you. But the basic judgmental projection--sometimes that's adjusted on the basis of the model results--but the basic judgmental projection is made from unadjusted weekly data. 

MR. MAYO. "Oh, I understand that, Steve."

Full utterance: Oh, I understand that, Steve.

Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. WALLICH.
text: If one factors in that probability, one-- 
speaker: CHAIRMAN BURNS.
text: And assumes great wisdom. 
speaker: MR. WALLICH.
text: --assumes great wisdom--I was going to say this raises other risks. It raises risks of acceleration of inflation; it reduces, I think, the chances of a downturn. So all that I wanted to say is that, in the absence of new action, I think that the staff is more on the high side than I would be. 

CHAIRMAN BURNS. "But I've got to go to another meeting, and I believe the Bank Presidents have scheduled a meeting to start at 5:00."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. WINN.
text: Mr. Chairman, I'd like to note to the Committee that this is the period in our discussion when time is standing still. I'd like to follow Chuck's comments-- 
speaker: CHAIRMAN BURNS.
text: Let me just interrupt. Now, somebody on earth or in Heaven, is, I think, sensing the mood of the Committee and controlling the clock. 
speaker: MR. LILLY.
text: We are now a legislative body; they do this all the time. 

CHAIRMAN BURNS. "Now, Mr. Lilly, you got this room cooled off."

Full utterance: Strange things have happened in this room. Now, Mr. Lilly, you got this room cooled off.

Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. BLACK.
text: And similarly, if we're forced to make these directives available immediately, I think that strengthens the case for looking further into the possibility of using a reserves target rather than a federal funds target, so that the interest rate movements in the federal funds market will not have this significance that they now do. With, perhaps, a proviso to limit the fluctuations beyond certain ranges. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN BURNS.
text: Yes. I understand your first. The second troubles me, not because I have any intellectual difficulty with it, but rather because I don't think we ought to change our procedure without thorough discussion, and I doubt that we'll be ready to-- 

MR. BLACK. "I just mean over the future."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN BURNS.
text: My understanding is that before he acts on this case, he and I will sit down and talk this over at length. Therefore, such a meeting will still take place. 
speaker: MR. O'CONNELL.
text: May I add, Mr. Chairman, as the Committee is also advised by materials in front of it, that action has been undertaken from the Board here to urge legislative relief of a nature suggested by the Court of Appeals in its opinion--namely, that there be an amendment to the Federal Reserve Act that would direct the withholding of the Committee's directive for a period until the next succeeding meeting. That's because under the Freedom of Information Act exemption number three requires that there be such a statutory mandate in order to enable the Committee to rely on that as a [reason for] withholding its directive. Such a letter was addressed to Mr. Proxmire, with supporting views and positions in a letter signed by the Chairman to Mr. Proxmire. 

CHAIRMAN BURNS. "I've had a similar meeting with Mr. Reuss."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN BURNS.
text: This may be the last--well, it will be the last meeting that I'll be presiding over. I want to say just one word. I don't think I've said it before. I am very pleased that at this last meeting of mine the Committee was unanimous. Thank you very much. 

VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. "But you know in another way, I felt this was a very onerous job, Mr. Chairman, psychologically."

Full utterance: Mr. Chairman, if I may have a point of personal privilege, as Vice Chairman of this Committee. I remember when I was first elected. When I arrived here you told me--indeed you announced to the Committee--that the job wasn't going to be very onerous. And I think that prediction, as many others, was borne out. I did get the minutes accepted a couple of times, I think. I may even have gotten some transactions that were already completed accepted once or twice. It wasn't more than twice, I'm sure. But you know in another way, I felt this was a very onerous job, Mr. Chairman, psychologically. Every time one thought one was prepared to make a brilliant or even sensible point, the Chairman would make it more eloquently and state it more effectively. He always anticipates you. He's always better prepared. And he brought an enormous experience in analyses of business cycles and a judgment that I think is clearly matched by no one else around the table or outside this table. In a way, that was psychologically onerous but it certainly made all our jobs much easier. And I have the feeling, if this indeed is your last meeting, Mr. Chairman, that we all are going to find it a bit more difficult in the future. We are going to have to carry a little more weight on our own--not just in analysis but in backbone. I can't think of any greater tribute for this Vice Chairman to give the Chairman of the Committee. I also might say, judging from some newspaper reports I have seen, that I have always appreciated a Chairman who smokes a pipe. But we will miss you very deeply, Mr. Chairman, and I am sure I can speak for every member of this Committee. [Applause]

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. TRUMAN.
text: I think, Mr. Chairman, that you=re right. Though in particular in the German case, as Governor Wallich was commenting, I think the deceleration, if any, is imperceptible relative to the United States. But for most of the weaker countries, there has been a sharp deceleration in their rates of monetary expansion. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN BURNS.
text: Gentlemen, perhaps the time has come to move along in our agenda. Oh, I=m advised that Mr. Holmes has still another recommendation. 

MR. HOLMES. "Hopefully, we won=t have to [breach] that."

Full utterance: Mr. Chairman, regrettably, I do have one final recommendation. As you know, the Committee has authorized an open position of $1.75 billion in foreign currencies. At the present time, we have a leeway of exactly $106 million, which is not very large relative to potential [operations]. Hopefully, we won=t have to [breach] that. In between Committee meetings under the procedural instructions, our leeway would go up to around $2.15 billion; it would go up $500 million from where we started at the beginning of the Committee [meeting] until the next meeting of the Committee. There=s no necessary reason why the authorization has to be exactly what is permitted in the procedural instructions, but obviously the authorization is the important [rule]; that=s what rules us. So I would certainly recommend that the Committee at this meeting, since this has to be an action of the full Committee, increase the limit on the open position to $2 billion, which happens to be the limit on our German mark swaps.

Opinion: yes
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. COLDWELL.
text: Scott, if my arithmetic is correct, there's $50 million of Treasury money left. What happens if you hit a big day? 
speaker: MR. PARDEE.
text: Well, Alan was going to cover this question. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN MILLER.
text: Phil, do you have a question? 
speaker: MR. JACKSON.
text: That was exactly my question. 

CHAIRMAN MILLER. "Then our choices are going to narrow down to whether we'll take a lower growth rate in our economy, because it doesn't look like we are getting the relative speedup in other economies."

Full utterance: Yes. We have all these policy dilemmas we are speaking about. Relative growth rates are such that we are going to continue to have these large current account deficits. Then our choices are going to narrow down to whether we'll take a lower growth rate in our economy, because it doesn't look like we are getting the relative speedup in other economies. [A lower growth rate] is something that I think many of the economic advisers in the Administration are now willing to accept because the alternative is to continue to see the dollar under pressure, and our resources to change it are not great. And that in itself feeds inflation into our economy and creates a whole series of other [developments] that lead us down an unhappy trail. So there is at least some thinking about whether we have to have a willingness here to shade our growth rate somewhat.

Opinion: yes
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. WINN.
text: So it seems to me that we're likely to find much more stimulus there than is [implicit] in the projection and I'm disturbed by the stirrings in Congress about wanting to do something at this level. Once they take the bit in their teeth we may get a much greater stimulus than firm leadership on fiscal policy would dictate. That is my comment. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN MILLER.
text: Thank you. Paul. 

VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER. "I don't know whether that bill is absolutely going to pass."

Full utterance: I'll be brief with a couple of random comments, Mr. Chairman. I don't think there is a great deal of informational content, as a number of people have said, in the recent statistics so far as the future is concerned. My own presumption is that [the economy] should be fairly strong after we get through this period, recognizing the possibility that President Morris first referred to that it could be something else. [But] we have to be able to make some decisions and my presumption would still be on the side that growth is going to be stronger and that the risk of more inflation over these projections is greater than the prospect of less inflation. That is a major part of our problem and I would hope the Administration comes out with more credible programs. I would just say, after listening to this colloquy earlier, that I would rather have them take a little more time and do it right. [I'd hate to see them] get so concerned that they put out something early that is really not very credible. If they could really do something right here--something forceful--and if they are willing to take the actions within government, including on government pay, that seem to me desirable, it may be pretty useful. I was also struck, in terms of potential problems for the Federal Reserve, which have been [alluded] to in a couple of different ways by what Governor Wallich said about time for a slow landing and all this nomenclature that we have full employment someplace in the 5 to 6 percent or 5-1/2 to 6 percent area. That gets into the Humphrey-Hawkins bill. [Let's assume] we get the passage of the current congressional package on the Humphrey-Hawkins bill. If Henry is right, and there is a good deal in what he says, how does one go up there and testify how we are on the path and conducting policies toward whatever figure they have in there for Humphrey-Hawkins? [It] is not very far off. It seems to me that we are in a very awkward position. I don't know whether that bill is absolutely going to pass. It's very hard to oppose it. But the awkwardness of our position struck me, as I heard Governor Wallich speak.

Opinion: yes
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN MILLER.
text: I think there has been a tremendously favorable reaction to my strong statement on inflation already. It hasn't been negative. [The reaction] has been, "My God, if that's true, let us do something." 
speaker: VICE CHAIRMAN VOLCKER.
text: I think there is a subtle distinction between your expressing alarm, which is entirely appropriate and very helpful and encouraging, and the Federal Reserve at some time, in its august majesty, saying this is what [inflation] is going to be. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN MILLER.
text: Mark had his hand up first and then I think-- 

MR. WILLES. "What happens now is that it all seems patently inconsistent to the public because we appear to be tightening when there's no reason and we appear to be easing when there's no reason."

Full utterance: Just to respond to that point because I think that's one of the key points to the argument on the other side, which is that we ought to be making policy looking ahead as to what's going to happen six to nine months down the road. What happens now is that it all seems patently inconsistent to the public because we appear to be tightening when there's no reason and we appear to be easing when there's no reason. I think it would be a great advantage, in terms of our ability to do our work, to have those kinds of statements out in the public domain.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: yes
Prior discussion:
speaker: CHAIRMAN MILLER.
text: Phil. 
speaker: MR. JACKSON.
text: Our policy, as I understand it, is to counter disorder. It would appear that when the mark-dollar relationship goes adverse to the dollar, we buy $100 million. When it goes favorably to the dollar, we buy 5 or 10 million [marks]. Why the difference? 

MR. PARDEE. "Well, I haven't seen-- We had one day or two days on which the dollar rose."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. KICHLINE.
text: I think our recent changes in the forecast really have been driven by largely exogenous factors. But I would not disagree with your underlying point, which I guess is that [money growth] does matter. If we had had higher interest rates in l977 and lower rates of growth in the aggregates, we would probably be looking at somewhat lower rates of inflation and we would also have lower rates of real activity. So I think throughout you would be talking about a situation that is different today than it would have been with a different set of aggregates and interest rates. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN MILLER.
text: Mark. 

MR. WILLES. "It was interesting to me that I found nobody below 7 percent."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. COLDWELL.
text: There are all sorts of [references to] M1 below that. This is just the historic past now. 
speaker: MR. PARTEE.
text: But I still don't-- 
speaker: CHAIRMAN MILLER.
text: Yes, M2 is the second sentence, isn't it? What is the sentiment? 

MR. PARTEE. "I would be very much opposed to taking it out."

Full utterance: I would be very much opposed to taking it out.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. GARDNER.
text: I've also been convinced since last fall that it's time to change automobiles. There are an incredible number of models which offer longer mileage and certain advantages like front wheel drive. It's quite impressive and, therefore, I'm not surprised at all by the automobile record that you expect and that the industry is anticipating. So I believe that there is merit to the staff forecast and that we will have a stronger period this year than we originally thought. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN MILLER.
text: Henry. 

MR. WALLICH. "We are likely to get another bad month in April because we've had a bad wholesale price index."


Opinion: no
Prior discussion:
speaker: MR. WALLICH.
text: We don't have to shift to that right now but by the end of the year it seems to me we ought to not worry at all if we're in the 3 to 4 or around the 3-1/2 percent range. That makes me somewhat more relaxed about concerns that the economy is not as strong as it seemed to be. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN MILLER.
text: But you want that to be a soft landing. 
speaker: MR. WALLICH.
text: Right, a soft landing. 
speaker: CHAIRMAN MILLER.
text: Phil. 

MR. COLDWELL. "I am especially worried about price pressures, which I view as very strong; and if fed by the availability of credit, they will intensify."

Full utterance: Mr. Chairman, I find myself in agreement with Governor Wallich's comments. I think our effective labor supply is narrowing and I think our capacity availability is less than shown. I am especially worried about price pressures, which I view as very strong; and if fed by the availability of credit, they will intensify. Credit demands in this nation are extremely strong in certain areas and strengthening elsewhere. The competition for it is good; nevertheless, the demands are high and they're going to be met with some of the liquidity and large CD funding. I view the possibility of the staff's forecast as I guess 50 percent and maybe that's enough for you, Jim. But I suspect that your second-quarter GNP [forecast] is still going to be low. I think the chances of 10 percent are very good. Third-quarter GNP, I think is going to fall off faster than you have indicated--perhaps down to 4 percent and then in the fourth quarter, I view down to 2 percent [as likely]. I see that largely because I think consumer demand is going to weaken as debt increases and I think the interest rate increases are going to dampen housing and eventually in 1979 they may have an impact on capital spending. I don't view this as a very horrible scenario because I think we need to slow the growth of the economy down to a [pace that is sustainable] longer run because if we don't and we face these continued price pressures, we're going to have a bigger problem later on.

Opinion: yes
About monetary policy: yes
Stance toward easing (NLI): entailment