660-024-0040 Land Need (1) The UGB must be based on the appropriate 20-year population forecast for the urban area as determined under rules in OAR chapter 660, division 32, and must provide for needed housing, employment and other urban uses such as public facilities, streets and roads, schools, parks and open space over the 20-year planning period consistent with the land need requirements of Goal 14 and this rule. The 20-year need determinations are estimates which, although based on the best available information and methodologies, should not be held to an unreasonably high level of precision. Local governments in Crook, Deschutes or Jefferson Counties may determine the need for Regional Large-Lot Industrial Land by following the provisions of OAR 660-024-0045 for areas subject to that rule. (2) If the UGB analysis or amendment is conducted as part of a periodic review work program, the 20-year planning period must commence on the date initially scheduled for completion of the appropriate work task. If the UGB analysis or amendment is conducted as part of a sequential UGB approval, the 20-year planning period will be established in the work program issued pursuant to OAR 660-025-0185. If the UGB analysis or amendment is conducted as a post-acknowledgement plan amendment under ORS 197.610 to 197.625, the 20-year planning period must commence either: (a) On the date initially scheduled for final adoption of the amendment specified by the local government in the initial notice of the amendment required by OAR 660-018-0020; or (b) If more recent than the date determined in subsection (a), at the beginning of the 20-year period specified in the appropriate coordinated population forecast for the urban area as determined under rules in OAR chapter 660, division 32, unless ORS 197A.270, 197A.280, or 197A.350 requires a different date for local governments subject to those statutes. (3) A local government may review and amend the UGB in consideration of one category of land need (for example, needed housing) without a simultaneous review and amendment in consideration of other categories of land need (for example, employment need). (4) The determination of 20-year residential land needs for an urban area must be consistent with: (a) The appropriate allocated housing need in ORS 184.453, and with the requirements for determining needed housing in Goals 10 and 14, OAR chapter 660, division 8, and applicable provisions of ORS 197A.020, 197A.200, 197A.215, 197A.270 to 197A.325 and 197.475 to 197.493. (b) For Metro, the appropriate 20-year coordinated population forecast for the urban area determined under rules in OAR chapter 660, division 32, and with the requirements for determining needed housing in Goals 10 and 14, OAR chapter 660, division 8, and applicable provisions of ORS 197A.335 to 197A.372. (5) Except for a metropolitan service district described in ORS 197.015(13), the determination of 20-year employment land need for an urban area must comply with applicable requirements of Goal 9 and OAR chapter 660, division 9, and must include a determination of the need for a short-term supply of land for employment uses consistent with OAR 660-009-0025. Employment land need may be based on an estimate of job growth over the planning period; local government must provide a reasonable justification for the job growth estimate but Goal 14 does not require that job growth estimates necessarily be proportional to population growth. Local governments in Crook, Deschutes or Jefferson Counties may determine the need for Regional Large-Lot Industrial Land by following the provisions of OAR 660-024-0045 for areas subject to that rule. (6) Cities and counties may jointly conduct a coordinated regional EOA for more than one city in the county or for a defined region within one or more counties, in conformance with Goal 9, OAR chapter 660, division 9, and applicable provisions of ORS 195.025. A defined region may include incorporated and unincorporated areas of one or more counties. (7) The determination of 20-year land needs for transportation and public facilities for an urban area must comply with applicable requirements of Goals 11 and 12, rules in OAR chapter 660, divisions 11 and 12, and public facilities requirements in ORS 197.712 and 197.768. The determination of school facility needs must also comply with 195.110 and 197.296 for local governments specified in those statutes. (8) A local government may apply the following safe harbors to determine its employment needs for purposes of a UGB amendment under this rule, Goal 9, OAR chapter 660, division 9, Goal 14 and, if applicable, ORS 197A.350. (a) A local government may estimate that the current number of jobs in the urban area will grow during the 20-year planning period at a rate equal to either: (A) The county or regional job growth rate provided in the most recent forecast published by the Oregon Employment Department; or (B) The population growth rate for the urban area in the appropriate 20-year coordinated population forecast determined under rules in OAR chapter 660, division 32. (b) A local government with a population of 10,000 or less may assume that retail and service commercial land needs will grow in direct proportion to the forecasted urban area population growth over the 20-year planning period. This safe harbor may not be used to determine employment land needs for sectors other than retail and service commercial. A local government does not need an updated EOA to use this safe harbor. (c) A local government with a population greater than 10,000 may estimate that the 20-year land needs for neighborhood-serving commercial will require an additional amount of land no more than five percent of the net buildable acres added to the UGB to address a residential land need consistent with section (4) of this rule. This safe harbor may not be used to determine employment land needs for uses other than neighborhood-serving commercial. A local government does not need an updated EOA to use this safe harbor. (9) As a safe harbor during periodic review or other legislative review of the UGB, a local government may estimate that the 20-year land needs for streets and roads, parks and school facilities will together require an additional amount of land equal to 25 percent of the net buildable acres determined for residential land needs under section (4) of this rule, and in conformance with the definition of “Net Buildable Acre” as defined in OAR 660-024-0010(9). Statutory/Other Authority: ORS 197.040, Statewide Planning Goal 14 & ORS 195.033(10) Statutes/Other Implemented: ORS 195.036, ORS 197.015, ORS 197.610 - 197.650, ORS 195.033, OL 2013 Ch. 574 Sec. 3, ORS 197.478, ORS 197A.015, ORS 197A.020, ORS 197A.200, ORS 197A.215, ORS 197A.278, ORS 197A.370 - 197A.400, ORS 197A.348-197A.355, ORS 197A.362, ORS 197A.425, ORS 197A.445, ORS 197A.465 & ORS 197A.470 History: LCDD 8-2025, amend filed 12/23/2025, effective 01/01/2026 LCDD 2-2019, amend filed 01/28/2019, effective 02/01/2019 LCDD 1-2015, f. & cert. ef. 3-25-15 LCDD 9-2012, f. 11-26-12, cert. ef. 12-10-12 LCDD 2-2009, f. 4-8-09, cert. ef. 4-16-09 LCDD 8-2006, f. 10-19-06, cert. ef. 4-5-07