333-615-0030 Temporary rule language in effect until 04/19/2026. Estimate of Need Bed need shall be evaluated using the below methodology: (1)(a) Determine the estimated population for the Health Service Area identified in OAR 333-615-0010(3) for the prior 10 years in five-year increments, and five- and 10-year forecasts as a basis for estimating the population for previous years and forecasting future years. Applicants shall use Portland State University's Population Research Center (PRC) Intercensal Estimate reports, and when available, United States Census Data. If the applicant uses an alternate data source, the applicant must provide justification for the alternate data source. (b) Age and sex specific forecasts and changes over time in the age and sex composition of the Health Service Area population shall be examined, and the implications for use-rates taken into consideration. (2) Determine current year proposed Health Service Area and historical Health Service Area population-based discharge and patient day use-rates utilizing relevant and recent data. Future use-rate deviations must be explained. (a) Determine current year and historical utilization by the Health Service Area population of existing facilities. For this step, the applicant shall use the Medicare Cost Reports and All Payer All Claims (APAC) data and may elect to use other relevant data. For the current year, and each of the prior 10 years, the applicant shall explain factors which may have affected identified trends. Factors to be addressed include, but are not limited to, changes in: population, public health needs (including any public health emergency), hospital location, service mix, age mix, reimbursement mix, transportation patterns, locations of physicians, specialists, unmet need, and the intensity or types of services delivered; (b) Estimate future utilization rates by the Health Service Area population, based on population forecasts for age and sex breakdowns, including consideration of an explained range of age and sex adjusted use-rates specific to: (A) The Health Service Area; (B) The nearest facilities with service mixes most comparable to the proposed facility; and (C) The nearest facilities with comprehensive service mixes. (3) Develop a consistent and reasonable set of well-documented assumptions regarding the appropriate use-rates reviewed in section (2) of this rule, including the extent to which utilization at the proposed psychiatric hospital will be new and the extent to which it will replace existing utilization at hospitals. (4) Analyze the advantages and disadvantages of both new and replacement components of utilization, with respect to both the population to be served and to existing facilities. Address the legislative findings cited in ORS 442.310. (5) Given all information from the preceding steps, and five and 10-year population forecasts, compute the range of possible future patient days in five years and in 10 years at the proposed psychiatric hospital, allowing appropriate adjustments for out-of-area utilization and other identified and justified special factors or considerations relevant to the proposal. (6) Convert each computed value of forecasted patient days based on preceding sections of this rule to an average daily census (ADC). (7) Estimate the statistically expected peak daily census, the statistical variability, or standard deviation, of the daily census and provide the methodology used by the applicant and sufficient information to validate use of the applicant’s statistical model. (8) Using a 10-year projection from the anticipated opening date of the facility, the applicant shall identify supported mathematical estimates of appropriate utilization levels and patient days generated because of changes identified in prior steps. Applicant shall explain the degree to which the utilization will be “new” days for the health service area population, or will shift present health service area utilization patterns for the services. Applicant shall address whether this analysis supports the need for the proposed hospital. (9) If the result of the above analysis indicates that psychiatric inpatient beds is needed in the proposed Health Service Area, an applicant for a new facility shall weigh it against the availability of beds at other facilities within the Health Service Area. Applicants shall use inpatient psychiatric bed capacity for all facilities in the Health Service Area provided by the Oregon Health Authority. Conversion of existing beds to psychiatric inpatient beds will be presumed infeasible where a general hospital in the proposed Health Service Area has not increased their psychiatric inpatient bed capacity by 20 percent or greater over the prior three-year interval from the date the applicant submitted their letter of intent. (10) Applicants must document how the project will avoid adverse financial impact to existing psychiatric service providers, particularly those serving high-acuity or underserved populations. The analysis shall address whether the proposed project with contribute to continuity or conversely, fragmentation of psychiatric care in the Health Service Area. Statutory/Other Authority: ORS 431.120 & ORS 442.315 Statutes/Other Implemented: ORS 431.120 & ORS 442.315 History: PH 20-2025, temporary amend filed 10/22/2025, effective 10/22/2025 through 04/19/2026 HD 13-1994, f. & cert. ef. 4-22-94