Great Expectations, Structural Limitations: Ursula von der Leyen and the Commission's New Equality Agenda
2020-08-21

relation to substantive policies but also with regard to European institutions per se.We argue that von der Leyen has already recognized the gendered nature of leadership, linking it to more gender-inclusive policy ambitions and leadership requirements.Changes in policy performance can also affect wider perceptions of the EU's democratic legitimacy at a critical juncture.The new President will certainly face significant political-institutional obstacles.Member states inevitably place national interests above supranational politics in times of crisis, but crises also present great opportunities for exercising different kinds of leadership; Commission presidents can operate as 'policy entrepreneurs' by way of their agenda-setting power for the EU at large (Tömmel, 2013(Tömmel, , 2019;;Müller, 2017Müller, , 2020)).What kind of difference could a female President make as a pro-active leader?Von der Leyen's effectiveness at the national level provides grounds for feminist optimism, but her chances of turning her ambitious equality agenda into measurable policy outcomes are qualified by our second argument: structures matter when it comes to judging how leadership can be effectively exercised, but so do fundamental differences dividing decision makers at the national and EU levels.Each Commission sets its own goals and work-plan for advancing European integration, but von der Leyen will encounter significant challenges, owing to a fragmented European Parliament, a polarized Council, and new fault lines within the Commission itself.These arguments fuel our efforts to incorporate a gendered leadership perspective as well.Having pursued national interests for 14years, von der Leyen must undertake a supranational U-turn in order to champion European interests.This raises the question as to whether leadership skills accumulated at one level will automatically transfer to a multi-level governance framework.The ability to lead derives from a combination of personal skills, the institutional context and policy-specific factors; little EU scholarship has focused on leadership per se, much less on its gender dimensions.Prior to 2019, women accounted for 35 of 183 Commissioners, less than 20 per cent of the total across seven decadeshardly a women-friendly organization in relation to descriptive representation (Hartlapp et al., forthcoming).Leading in transitional times is particularly demanding: 'great ambitions' not only raise great expectations but also greater national resistance to change.Concentrating on the transitional 100-day period, we raise the question: Would it be better for Ursula von der Leyen to aim very high, in hopes of achieving more, or should she avoid undermining her own credibility, and that of future women leaders, by overshooting the mark with promises she cannot keep?We first consider gendered leadership, von der Leyen's successful transformation of the German gender regime, and potential disadvantages linked to her controversial nomination.Next we address the 'great expectations' she has raised, based on the bold promises of the 2020 Gender Equality Strategy, then zoom in on political-structural limitations inherent in multi-level governance.Finally, we address the imbalance between these great expectations and structural constraints, concluding with reflections on the proverbial 'glass half-full/half-empty' conundrum.I.