The Great American Gamble: Deterrence Theory and Practice from the Cold War to the Twenty-First Century
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American Gamble was added to the 2010 Commander's Professional Reading List by Gen. Kevin P. Chilton, Commander, U.S. Strategic Command. - Editorial ReviewKeith Payne's The Great American Gamble is one of the most significant studies of nuclear deterrence in many years. --Tom Karako, Claremont Review of Books Building on his previous seminal writings, Professor Payne meticulously traces and cogently explains the development of deterrence theory and U.S. strategic nuclear policy from the mid-1960's to the present time. He provides new insights into the thinking that shaped the assured destruction paradigm that decisively influenced Cold War choices that emphasized offensive forces and deliberately rejected defenses. Of greatest importance, however, is Dr. Payne's discussion of the need for a deterrence concept that moves beyond the Cold War balance of terror to align our strategic policies and forces with the realities of the twenty-first century. Dr. Payne discusses in detail the remaining obstacles that are the product of a Cold War strategic culture based on assured destruction thinking. He addresses what still needs to be done to deter states and terrorist groups that may be armed with nuclear capabilities in the years ahead. This book should be required reading both by policymakers and in the broader strategic affairs community. --Dr. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr., Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of International Security Studies, The Fletcher School, Tufts University, and President, Institute for Foreign Policy AnalysisDr. Keith Payne has painstakingly and skillfully developed a masterful analysis of American Cold War nuclear deterrence theory to practice with insightful critique and prescriptive considerations for the post-Cold War era. Keith utilizes a vast amount of previously classified information to facilitate the comprehension of high-level key deterrence decisions. A 'must read' for defense policy professionals, scholars, and concerned citizens. -- --ADM Henry Chiles Jr., USN (ret.), former Commander in Chief, U.S. Strategic CommandThe Great American Gamble makes a seminal contribution to our understanding of deterrence theory and the profound influence of theory on national security policy. In this definitive work, Keith Payne presents the most insightful retrospective on the development and consistency of U.S. strategic thinking across decades of Democratic and Republican administrations --Amb. Robert Joseph, former Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International SecurityThe essence of the reigning strategy of nuclear 'assured destruction' was outlined to me forty years ago, with little sense of irony, by a Pentagon official: 'Weapons that kill people are good. Weapons that kill other weapons are bad.' In this superb and definitive work, Keith Payne spells out how we got here and the extreme danger of continuing to so design our strategic forces. --The Honorable R. James Woolsey, Former Director of Central IntelligenceYou cannot read The Great American Gamble and remain indifferent to the challenge posed by the post-Cold War doctrine regarding deterrence. Keith Payne painstakingly documents the history of nuclear deterrence - and nuclear assurance for our allies - and then thoroughly and dispassionately analyzes the consequences of the choices that will confront our next President. For anyone content with the belief that the republic will remain secure by simply maintaining a 'stable balance of terror,' this book will be unsettling. Dr. Payne made his bones long ago in the field of nuclear deterrence, and it is in this same arena where the next President will probably make the most important strategic decisions of his presidency. The whole questions of the role of nuclear deterrence in U.S. strategic policy deserves a robust national debate, and Dr. Payne's insightful, timely and exceedingly well-documented analysis in The Great American Gamble is a perfect place to begin. For many who read his book, it is also likely where it will end. -- --Senator Charles Robb “The Great American Gamble [is] a book that must be studied by anyone involved in national security” --- Army Magazine The Journal of International Security Affairs – “Payne's meticulous research and penetrating analysis have produced what is almost certain to become the definitive analytical work on the subject for the period covering the 1960s through the years immediately following the end of the Cold War”Written by the leading deterrence pessimist of our day... It is difficult to argue with Payne's logic. ---Naval War College ReviewIISS journal Survival review written by French analyst Bruno Tetris concludes – “as the global nuclear picture becomes more complex and Western analysts wonder whether and how China, North Korea, and Iran could be deterred, Payne s volume is an invaluable guide for methodical thinking on the subject.”The Journal of International Security Affairs – “Payne's meticulous research and penetrating analysis have produced what is almost certain to become the definitive analytical work on the subject for the period covering the 1960s through the years immediately following the end of the Cold War.&.”The Great American Gamble was included on the FPI Summer Reading List for 2009. -- --Editorial ReviewYou cannot read The Great American Gamble and remain indifferent to the challenge posed by the post-Cold War doctrine regarding deterrence. Keith Payne painstakingly documents the history of nuclear deterrence - and nuclear assurance for our allies - and then thoroughly and dispassionately analyzes the consequences of the choices that will confront our next President. For anyone content with the belief that the republic will remain secure by simply maintaining a 'stable balance of terror,' this book will be unsettling. Dr. Payne made his bones long ago in the field of nuclear deterrence, and it is in this same arena where the next President will probably make the most important strategic decisions of his presidency. The whole questions of the role of nuclear deterrence in U.S. strategic policy deserves a robust national debate, and Dr. Payne's insightful, timely and exceedingly well-documented analysis in The Great American Gamble is a perfect place to begin. For many who read his book, it is also likely where it will end. --Senator Charles Robb