Trader Vic on Commodities: What's Unknown, Misunderstood, and Too Good to Be True
Commodities are experiencing a new up cycle—and an examination of the major factors contributing to these price increases suggests they are not short-lived. World populations continue to expand, increasing global demand. Industrialization in China and India, as well as in other emerging markets, has greatly increased the need for energy and industrial products, while the supply remains limited. With the increased volatility in the commodities markets, the surge in interest, and the generally higher prices in everything from crude oil to copper to cocoa, it seems clear that every investor should have at least some exposure to commodities.In Trader Vic on Commodities, Wall Street legend Victor Sperandeo explains in simple terms how these markets operate, removes some of the mystique and uncertainty involved, and offers a proven method for capitalizing on commodity market trends—without taking giant risks. He introduces a valuable tool—the Standard & Poor's Diversified Trends Indicator (S&P; DTI)—to capture price movement, premiums, and discounts in the commodity futures markets. Sperandeo shows that, as commodities are cyclical in nature, the best goal is to capture as much of the major trends of each market as possible, while balancing that goal with a minimum of risk. The S&P; DTI—designed to be complementary to other investments, but with a negative historical correlation and completely uncorrelated to other investment classes—has produced alpha consistency with low volatility rather than outsized returns with higher volatility.Perhaps most importantly, Sperandeo acknowledges that losses are part of the trading business. But if you are trading properly, he explains, you will find yourself able to lose more often than win and still remain profitable overall. Learning to accept, deal with, and minimize losses is the most important factor in determining your success as a trader.Finding ways to remove the emotion and personal judgment from an investment strategy is also a crucial factor in long-term market profitability. The S&P; Diversified Trends Indicator accomplishes these goals more successfully than most other strategies you will find. It will provide a well-researched, low-volatility strategy for taking advantage of commodity trends in a systematic way so as to earn consistently superior index returns over the long run.