Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters
"[C]arefully wrought . . ."--James Grant,Wall Street Journal"The book is a great read, based as it is around the personalities of these early forecasters. . . . I can see a terrific movie in the 'forecasting wars' of the 1920s as these larger-than-life, quintessentially can-do Americans competed with each other to call the stock market, win followers and make a fortune."--Diane Coyle,Enlightened Economistblog"Fortune Tellersis a marvel too. It is scholarship of the highest quality, without shortcuts or gimmicks. We may not be able to trust the forecasters, but when it comes to their stories we are in excellent hands."--Pietra Rivoli,Financial Times"Friedman's well-crafted work is highly recommended to students of economics and others interested in the history of economic forecasting."--Library Journal"[Fortune Tellers] . . . reminds readers that the economy remains too complex for anyone to consistently make reliable predictions about it."--Alan Wallace,Pittsburgh Tribune-Review"InFortune Tellers, Walter Friedman shows not only where our contemporary forecasting ecosystem came from, but also its considerable influence on present-day economic thought and practice."--Michael Lind,Pacific Standard"The book is fun reading, but what makes it especially interesting for any regular consumer of modern economic forecasts is how little today's forecasters have improved on the methods of the 1910s and 1920s."--Justin Fox,Harvard Business Review blog"In a series of short biographical narratives of the first men to take up forecasting as a profession, Friedman shows how economic predictions became an integral part of the way businessmen and government officials made decisions, and how the foundations were laid for the kind of sophisticated economic modeling that we now rely on."--James Surowiecki,Democracy"Historian Friedman examines how forecasting economic performance became professionalized in the early 20th century. He adeptly and insightfully uses a biographical approach, with five case studies selected because of their contemporary significance and because each analyst understood the logic of capitalism differently and took a different approach to forecasting."--Choice"Fortune Tellersis an engaging account of the beginnings of the vibrant industry of American economic forecasting."--George A. Schade,Financial History"The value of Friedman's book isn't just in the brief biographies . . . but also in Friedman's insights and asides about the business, financial and political context of the time. Friedman doesn't mention it, but few readers will miss the implicit comparison to today."--Randolph Walerius,Roll Call"There is no better way to gain an understanding of how economic forecasting began than reading Walter A. Friedman's new bookFortune Tellers. . . . It shines a light on the entrepreneurs like Roger Babson and John Moody who created the economic forecasting field a century ago and transformed it into successful businesses."--James McCusker,Everett Herald