Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis
Intelligence community (IC) stalwarts Richards Heuer and Randy Pherson have addressed a gaping lacuna in IC scholarship with theirStructured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis. Finally, we have a work that discusses not only the hows but also the whys of analysis. Like Heuer's previousPsychology of Intelligence Analysis, the current volume is destined to become an instant classic; I intend to integrate it into my Intelligence and Security Studies curriculum at the earliest possible opportunity. --Carl Jensen, Director, Center for Intelligence and Security Studies, The University of Mississippi.Policy advisers cling to the belief that they can simply think their way through difficult conflicts, despite experimental evidence that shows that they do no better than non-experts. Heuer and Pherson'sStructured Analytic Techniquesshows how evidence-based techniques can greatly improve experts' judgmental forecasting and decision making. This is the new Bible for decision makers facing conflicts. --J. Scott Armstrong, The Wharton School, University of PennsylvaniaEveryone says that intelligence organizations need to consider alternatives and challenge assumptions, but only withStructured Analytic Techniquesdo we have a detailed presentation of the ways to proceed. It should prove invaluable to practitioners and insightful to scholars. --Robert Jervis, Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Politics at Columbia University