Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis: A Systems Engineering Perspective
Paul Garvey's new book belongs on the bookshelves of all persons responsible for providing cost estimates of futuristic, high-technology systems at various phases of development and production or for making decisions based on such cost estimates….[It] collects in one handy location all the probabilistic foundations of the new approach to cost estimating….Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis will serve the system engineer and cost analyst as both a desk reference and, with its large volume of examples and exercises, a textbook for keeping up to speed (or getting up to speed) on these new procedures.-Stephen A. Book, Ph.D., Distinguished Engineer, Systems Engineering Division, The Aerospace Corporation, Los Angeles, CaliforniaSound theoretical basis, fine-tuned by empirical evidence, and focused like a laser on the application of performing cost risk analysis on complex systems…after teaching from a collection of papers, I'm delighted to finally find this well-written text.-Daryl J. Hauck, Ph.D.Assistant Professor, Ohio…Paul Garvey has done a tremendous job taking a technical subject and producing a readable, interesting and informative primer. …strongly recommend[ed]…to all professional cost analysts, both for its readability and its insights....also recommend[ed] …to anyone who is in the position of making decisions based on cost estimates.- Phalanx, The Bulletin of Military Operations Research...does a very thorough job of explaining probability methods in cost uncertainty analysis in mathematical terms.- International Cost Engineering Council, 2001This book focuses on the development of a structured approach to quantifying the uncertainty of cost estimates, backed by a great deal of mathematical rigor.- INCOSE Insight, 2001