Stalking the Black Swan: Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility (Columbia Business School Publishing)
As a respected equity analyst, Kenneth A. Posner has seen firsthand what it means to be blindsided by black swans. In this deeply thoughtful and heartfelt book, he traces out the sources of what we think of as 'surprise events' and offers a pragmatic approach for confronting and hopefully mitigating their adverse effects. Along the way, there are many beautifully elaborated stories depicting how swans often won the day, as well as descriptions of the all-too-rare positive outcomes. This is a valuable book for anyone who treads a path through an uncertain world (hint: that should be everyone!).(Martin Leibowitz, managing director, Morgan Stanley, and coauthor ofThe Endowment Model of Investing)How do highly intelligent bankers and investors get surprised and brought down by financial crises created by their own interactions? Why can't formulaic rules and regulations prevent such crises? How can sophisticated models be so far off? How can one cope with the 'the unpredictability of collective action'? Posner provides insightful, honest, and very instructive real-world adventures in how 'to learn to live with extreme volatility,' as financial markets marched, trumpets blaring, into the quicksands of recursiveness.(Alex J. Pollock, American Enterprise Institute, and former president and CEO of the Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago)Posner'sStalking the Black Swanis an insightful integration of the emerging field of behavioral economics with real-world insights about financial markets. Posner combines true intellect, a fascinating professional background, and a critical mind to help us understand where laboratory insights hold up and where they might not. This book will be a valuable read for anyone interested in the role of behavioral economics in predicting market behavior.(Max H. Bazerman, Straus Professor, Harvard Business School, and author ofNegotiation Genius(with Deepak Malhotra) andJudgment in Managerial Decision Making(with Don A. Moore))Posner has drawn on his extensive experience as a first-rate analyst to examine the clues leading up to the recent meltdown of a number of once-respected financial institutions. But this is not a financial retrospective. He shows us how to combine numbers crunching with intuition, and he provides us with a set of disciplines to use in anticipating future Black Swan events—both positive and negative—and to profit accordingly.(Byron R. Wien, Blackstone Advisory Partners LP)If you are looking for a well-written book which seeks to merge quantitative analysis, fundamental research, and human psychology, Stalking the Black Swanprovides a great resource to help you fine tune your investing framework for the volatile environment of our times.(Wall Street Cheat Sheet)a wonderful read on how to think about, analyze, and react to extreme events.(Motley Fool)Stalking the Black Swanprovides a great resource to help you fine tune your investing framework for the volatile environment of our times.(Damien HoffmanWall St. Cheat Sheet)Stalking the Black Swan doesn't attempt to explain why or how the crisis happened, but instead offers practical, crisis-tested advice on methods for uncovering a similar looming disaster in your own portfolio.(Seeking Alpha)