The Crisis of Crowding: Quant Copycats, Ugly Models, and the New Crash Normal
The financial markets are dangerously over-crowded. Investors follow popular trends or latch onto profitable new strategies with herd-like single-mindedness, and an increasingly globalized and interconnected world has only exacerbated the problem.The Crisis of Crowding: Quant Copycats, Ugly Models, and the New Crash Normalexplores how the dramatic overcrowding we've seen over the last quarter century has yielded terrifying results, including the 2008 financial crisis that continues to reverberate around the globe.The story of overcrowding as we know it now began in 1998, with the failure of the profoundly successful Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) hedge fund. Exploring how this seemingly isolated event signaled a much larger problem within the financial industry,The Crisis of Crowdingtraces the story of LTCM and the subsequent hedge funds started by its founder, John Meriwether and his former partners, through the events of 2008, and up to the ongoing European debt crisis.Part narrative, part quantitative analysis, the book is filled with firsthand recollections from those on the front lines of the crowding crisis, including several LTCM partners. Featuring insights from key banking and hedge fund authorities, it brings the events that led to the current crisis vividly to life, showing how and why the market has evolved in new and dangerous ways, and what can be done about it.Much that should have been obvious after the fall of LTCM could have prevented the crises that followed. Instead, the problems of overcrowding went unchecked so that when the next economic disaster hit, increased leverage, policy mishaps, and an even more crowded trading space resulted in a far bigger collapse. We failed to learn our lesson the first time around, but that doesn't mean it's too late. Future economic crises are all but guaranteed, andThe Crisis of Crowdingreveals exactly what we need to know so we're prepared for next time.