Predictions: Society's Telltale Signature Reveals Past & Forcasts the Future
Modis believes that the S-curves that mathematicians use to chart natural growth processes can also be used to predict social phenomena, including the life cycles of products, tourism trends and patterns of creativity. Utilizing S-curves and related techniques, he estimates the number of westward expeditions that failed prior to Columbus's voyage; suggests that Mozart may have exhausted his creative potential at the age of 35; and predicts that the discovery of a cure for AIDS is unlikely until a relatively dramatic decline in the yearly number of AIDS deaths occurs. In what sometimes seems like an intellectual parlor game, Modis, a management science consultant, applies his sweeping theories to criminal careers, energy consumption and human life expectancy. He also posits a 56-year cycle that purportedly rocks society with alternating waves of violence and achievement, prosperity and economic depression. Mathematics buffs will be the most likely readers of this offbeat excursion.Copyright 1992 Reed Business Information, Inc.