the estimations suggest that a permanent increase of percentage points in the share of longterm unemployment in total unemployment results in a decline in participation of percentage point in the specification without persistence effects and up to the double in the specification with lagged participation applied to the profile of longterm unemployment longterm unemployment increases over the past decade could explain between and percentage points of the decline in participation with the share of longterm unemployed in unemployment still above its precrisis level this suggests some possible future recovery in participation albeit at a slow pace moreover given the different regional situations the recovery is likely to be very uneven across the united states the evolution of educational attainment does not seem to play a role although this may reflect two conflicting forces with longer enrolment reducing labour force participation of the younger cohort while higher achievement increases participation later on