payments based on the use of variable inputs are found to be the most likely to provoke increased fishing effort while payments based on fixed capital formation are most likely to encourage increased capacity levels payments based on fishers income are less likely to increase effort or capacity and may be more effective at improving the welfare of fishers payments to general services for the sector are least likely to increase effort or fishing capacity the authors are grateful to franck jesus rachel bae and the whole tadnrp fisheries team for helpful discussions