a further refinement is proposed by the uk hm treasury model which distinguishes between the use of acute and longterm care the dynamic equilibrium is assumed in the solid progress scenario whereas the expansion of morbidity hypothesis is assumed for both acute and longterm care in a pessimistic scenario using a microsimulation approach individuals current and future health status can be projected conditional on their background characteristics such as ethnicity and socioeconomic status as well as their exposure to risk factors such as obesity and smoking and their current and past health status and chronic health conditions see annex a and a as an example the ministry of health and social affairs in sweden see annex a forecasted the potential impact on health and elderly care expenditures under different scenarios of the future health status of the population