Effects of Climate Variability on Water Resources and Livelihoods and State of Adaptive Capacity in semi-arid Tharaka district, Kenya.

This study adopted an integrated approach of vulnerability assessment to&#13;\nunderstand&#13;\nclimate variability and its effects in&#13;\nTharaka District Kenya.&#13;\nThe&#13;\nspecific objectives of&#13;\nthe study were: (i) analyze the characteristics of rainfall variabil&#13;\nity; (ii)&#13;\na&#13;\nssess the effect&#13;\nof climate variability on water availability; (iii)&#13;\nd&#13;\netermine the perceived impact of climate&#13;\nvariability on livelihoods; (iv) Assess the conceptual understanding of climate variability&#13;\nin relation to other socio&#13;\n-&#13;\neconomic stress&#13;\nors and; (v) Assess the availability and use of&#13;\nattributes and indicators of adaptive capacity. The study utilized four data sets: daily&#13;\nrainfall data (1969&#13;\n-&#13;\n2007), household survey (N=326), interviews with practitioners (N=&#13;\n24) and Focus Group Discussion (&#13;\nN= 48). The study used cumulative departure index&#13;\nand rainfall anomaly index to establish rainfall trends for the period on record; and two&#13;\nsample&#13;\nt&#13;\n-&#13;\ntest to establish&#13;\nthe difference between&#13;\nMarch&#13;\n-&#13;\nMay (MAM) and October&#13;\n-&#13;\nDecember (OND). Percentage cumulative&#13;\nmean was used to estimate mean dates of onset&#13;\nand cessation and INSTAT in disaggregation of daily rainfall data into pentads to analyze&#13;\nwithin&#13;\n-&#13;\nseason characteristics. The study utilized X&#13;\n2&#13;\nto establish satisfaction levels of&#13;\ndistance to water points, socia&#13;\nl amenities and rating of seasonal climate forecasts. Factor&#13;\nanalysis was used establish&#13;\nthe main&#13;\neffect of climate variability&#13;\nwhile&#13;\nparticipatory risk&#13;\nranking and scoring&#13;\nto yield the lead stressors.&#13;\nIn Tharaka, OND&#13;\nand annual rainfall are&#13;\npersistently b&#13;\nelow nor&#13;\nmal when compared to&#13;\nMAM.&#13;\nRainfall has high inter&#13;\n-&#13;\nannual&#13;\nvariability with occasions of positive anomalies such 1997 for OND and negative&#13;\nanomalies such 1984&#13;\nfor MAM.&#13;\nMAM and OND had a&#13;\ncoefficient of variation&#13;\nexceeding&#13;\n0.3&#13;\nalthough the&#13;\nformer was p&#13;\noorly distributed in April&#13;\n. The average date&#13;\ns of onset were&#13;\n21&#13;\n-&#13;\n25&#13;\nof March&#13;\nand October&#13;\n, while c&#13;\nessation&#13;\ndates were May 16&#13;\n-&#13;\n20 for&#13;\nand January 6&#13;\n-&#13;\n10&#13;\nfor October&#13;\n-&#13;\nJanuary season.&#13;\nBut onset dates showed high inter&#13;\n-&#13;\nannual variability than&#13;\ncessation dates.&#13;\nMAM and OND&#13;\nseasons in&#13;\nLower Midlands&#13;\n5&#13;\nand&#13;\nLower Midlands 4&#13;\nare&#13;\nmarkedly different and therefore require&#13;\ndifferent cropping system&#13;\ns&#13;\n.&#13;\nAlthough&#13;\n58%&#13;\nof&#13;\nhouseholds engage in&#13;\nmore than three&#13;\nlivelihoods, income derived is very low. Results of&#13;\nfactor analysis&#13;\nshow&#13;\ned&#13;\nlivestock (25%) and water &amp; forest products (12%)&#13;\nas&#13;\nthe most&#13;\naffected by climate variability. This perception was at variance with practitioners who&#13;\nsaid crops were the most affected. Water scarcity (1.2) and lack of money (1.2) had the&#13;\nhighest sev&#13;\nerity index, ahead of irregular rains&#13;\n(1.7)&#13;\nand drought&#13;\n(1.5)&#13;\nas stressors.&#13;\nAwareness on the causes and impact of climate variability and the improved rating of&#13;\nclimate forecasts should be harnessed into an opportunity to reduce vulnerability.&#13;\nLivelihood d&#13;\niversity, land availability, two growing seasons and cultivation of drought&#13;\ntolerant crops are the indicators of adaptive capacity in Tharaka. Adaptation to climate&#13;\nvariability is hampered by lack of credit facilities, low literacy levels and limited use o&#13;\nf&#13;\nclimate forecasts.&#13;\nT&#13;\nhere were institutions in Tharaka supporting adaptation through seed&#13;\ndistribution, food relief,&#13;\nirrigation and rainwater harvesting&#13;\n.&#13;\nIt is recommended that&#13;\nfarmers in&#13;\nIL5&#13;\nand&#13;\nIL6&#13;\ntap the full potential of MAM season and stakeholders&#13;\na&#13;\nddress&#13;\nsocio&#13;\n-&#13;\neconomic concerns as a first step to strengthen adaptation&#13;\n.&#13;\nFuture studies should&#13;\nquantify&#13;\ndrought&#13;\nepisodes&#13;\nand analyze the implications of rainfall variability on major&#13;\ncrop yields in Tharaka.

Topic: Climate change impacts on agriculture
Subfield: Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
Field: Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Domain: Life Sciences