MP03-17 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON KIDNEY STONE PRESENTATIONS IN SOUTH CAROLINA

Field: Medicine (Health Sciences)

You have accessJournal of UrologyStone Disease: Epidemiology & Evaluation I (MP03)1 Apr 2020MP03-17 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON KIDNEY STONE PRESENTATIONS IN SOUTH CAROLINA Jason Kaufman*, Ana Vicedo Cabrera, Vicky Tam, Ethan Coffel, Lihai Song, and Gregory Tasian Jason Kaufman*Jason Kaufman* More articles by this author , Ana Vicedo CabreraAna Vicedo Cabrera More articles by this author , Vicky TamVicky Tam More articles by this author , Ethan CoffelEthan Coffel More articles by this author , Lihai SongLihai Song More articles by this author , and Gregory TasianGregory Tasian More articles by this author View All Author Informationhttps://doi.org/10.1097/JU.0000000000000817.017AboutPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareFacebookLinked InTwitterEmail Abstract INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: There is a strong association between heat and kidney stone presentations, but the projected impact of climate change on future nephrolithiasis events is poorly understood. We quantified expected future kidney stones presentations attributable to projected temperature and humidity in South Carolina through 2089 using daily projections of mean wet bulb temperature across the state under several climate change mitigation scenarios. METHODS: We generated coefficients of the exposure-lag response relationship between daily wet-bulb temperatures (a metric that captures the thermodynamic relationship between heat and humidity) and kidney stone presentations in South Carolina between 1997-2015. We then estimated the number of stone presentations due to projected wet bulb temperatures by incorporating these risk estimates into models of climate change scenarios. We considered two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), demonstrating two possible futures of greenhouse gas emission and three global circulation models (Access1-0, BCC-csm, and CNRM-cm5), which were averaged to capture a range of assumptions in climate modeling. RESULTS: The excess number of kidney stones attributed to high temperatures projected under climate change scenarios from 2025-2085 were 3,735 and 8,710, assuming an increase in annual average wet bulb temperature within the study region between the 2010s and the 2080s of 2.2°C and 3.4°C, respectively (Figure 1 and Table 1). Figure 1. Relative risk of kidney stone presentation compared to in SC from 1997-2015 (top). Projected temperature distribution change (middle) and associated excess stones (bottom) between 2010-2019 and 2080-2089, as predicted by RCP 8.5, the “business as usual” pathway. A referent wet bulb temperature of 10°C was used. Table 1. Estimated number of kidney stones attributable to temperature events in 5 year periods from 2020 - 2089. CONCLUSIONS: Increased temperatures from global climate change are projected to increase the incidence of kidney stone presentations through the 21st century. Source of Funding: American Urological Association Herbert Brendler, MD Summer Medical Student Fellowship © 2020 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Volume 203Issue Supplement 4April 2020Page: e28-e29 Advertisement Copyright & Permissions© 2020 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.MetricsAuthor Information Jason Kaufman* More articles by this author Ana Vicedo Cabrera More articles by this author Vicky Tam More articles by this author Ethan Coffel More articles by this author Lihai Song More articles by this author Gregory Tasian More articles by this author Expand All Advertisement PDF downloadLoading ...