The minds arrows : Bayes nets and graphical causal models in psychology 1 Introduction 2 Android epistemology for babies 3 Another way for nerds to make babies : the frame problem and causal inference in developmental psychology 4 A puzzling experiment 5 The puzzle resolved 6 Marilyn vos Savant meets Rescorla and Wagner 7 Cheng models 8 Learning procedures 9 Representation and rationality : the case of backward blocking 10 Cognitive parts : from Freud to Farah 11 Inference to cognitive architecture from individual case studies 12 Group data in cognitive neuropsychology 13 The explanatory power of lesioning neural nets 14 Social statistics and genuine inquiry : the case of The bell curve